Dubai mega-tower `last hurrah' to age of excess
By BRIAN MURPHY, Associated Press Writer Brian Murphy, Associated Press Writer 2 hrs 42 mins ago

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – When work began in 2004 to build the world's tallest tower, Dubai's confidence also was sky high with a host of mega-projects on the drawing board or rising from the sands.

That swagger seems positively old school these days. It's been tripped up by a debt crunch that has humbled Dubai's leaders and exposed the shaky foundations of the city-state's boom years — leaving the planned Jan. 4 opening of the iconic Burj Dubai with a double significance of hello and goodbye.

It will be both a debutante bash for a new architectural landmark and a farewell toast to Dubai's age of excess.

The Burj Dubai — a steel-and-glass needle rising more than a half-mile (800 meters) — may be the last completed work from Dubai's time of the giants. Most other of the unfinished super-projects announced in recent years, such as a second palm-shaped island or a tower to surpass the Burj Dubai, are either recession roadkill or being considered on a far smaller scale.

If they are still considered at all.

Dubai last week dropped what amounted to a financial bombshell — announcing its main government-backed development group, Dubai World, needed at least a six-month breather from creditors owed nearly $60 billion.

World markets had known a day of fiscal reckoning was creeping up on what was once the world's fastest-growing city, swelling from about 700,000 in 1995 to more than 1.3 million today. But the depths of Dubai's red ink seemed to surprise everyone, rattling stock exchanges from Hong Kong to New York and adding exclamation points to obits-in-progress on the death of Dubai's golden years.

The Burj Dubai gala is now a welcome diversion. And one without a direct political sting: the building was developed by Emaar Properties, a state-backed firm not linked to the current debt meltdown.

"This tower was conceived as a monument to Dubai's place on the international stage," said Christopher Davidson, a professor at the University of Durham in Britain who has written extensively about the United Arab Emirates. "It's now like a last hurrah to the boom years."

It's not the first time a skyscraper has gone up as the economy swooned.

New York's 102-story Empire State Building was designed as the world's tallest building just before the 1929 stock market crash and opened in 1931 as the Great Depression was taking hold. In 1999, the Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, officially opened to claim the world-tallest crown — two years after the financial meltdown of the once-soaring Southeast Asian economies.

But the Burj Dubai, or Dubai Tower, occupies a special niche. Few cities have grown so far so fast — pushed along by runaway property speculation and the boundless ambitions of Dubai's ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

The recession barged in last year and quickly dried up the cash flow.

The brakes also were slammed on hundreds of Dubai projects — from residential towers that stand half-finished to a desert Xanadu that included a Universal Studios theme park and a "city of wonders" with full-size replicas of the Eiffel Tower, Taj Mahal and other famous sites.

Sheik Mohammed even has grown a bit testy over Dubai's dimming star power. In a meeting with international investors in November, he switched from Arabic to English to tell naysayers in the media to "shut up."

Dubai's boosters hope the opening of the Burj Dubai — which include offices, residences and a hotel _will give them at least some respite from the bad news. The Dubai PR machine is working overtime.

A barrage of statistics — vital and trivial — are pouring out as the $4.1 billion building gets its finishing touches: more than 160 stories topped by a spire that reaches a reported 2,684 feet (818 meters), well above the runner-up skyscraper, Taipei 101 in Taiwan, at 1,671 feet (508 meters). The Burj has even pushed past other giant structures taller than Taipei 101 such as the CN Tower in Toronto and the KVLY-TV mast in North Dakota.

The Burj — designed by the Chicago-based architectural firm Skidmore, Owings & Merrill — is billed to have the world's fastest elevator at up to 40 mph (64 kph) and can be seen as far as 57 miles (95 kilometers) away. It takes three months just to clean all the windows.

But there's some facts that are still closely guarded, including how much of the office and residential space is leased and whether the financial meltdown will make the Burj another tower of debt.

The current price for purchase or rent, too, is also unclear. It's certain, though, that it's gone down along with property prices across Dubai in the past year. A report in October by the Investment Boutique, a real estate advisory firm in Dubai, said asking prices in the Burj Dubai area had slumped by 77 percent since the peak a year earlier.

"Buildings like the Burj Dubai are born from the optimism of the moment," said Carol Willis, director of The Skyscraper Museum in New York. "That may not necessarily be the mood when the project is finished."

The Burj Dubai also faces some location drawbacks that didn't burden Dubai's other signature structures, such as the sail-shaped Burj Al Arab hotel and the Palm Jumeirah island that fans out into the Gulf. The Burj Dubai rises above a new annex of the city that was originally designed as a cluster of towers — which is now put on hold because of the economic crunch.

That leaves the Burj soaring above what amounts to high-priced empty lots.

But — for a moment at least — it will shift the spotlight back on Dubai from its oil-rich cousin, Abu Dhabi, the new boomtown of the UAE.

Abu Dhabi has already bailed out its debt-ridden neighbor once this year and is now watching from the wings as Dubai pleads for time with its global creditors. Dubai — without any oil resources — bankrolled its growth as a financial hub and a Mideast version of Las Vegas.

The rulers in more conservative Abu Dhabi, meanwhile, moved in other directions in their campaign to put the city on the world map in a generation.

In the past few months, Abu Dhabi hosted its inaugural Formula One race, won a global competition to host the headquarters of the new International Renewal Energy Agency and announced a $1 trillion plan to upgrade the city's roads, transportation and public venues. Also in the works are plans for branches of the Louvre and Guggenheim museums and a New York University campus.

Suddenly, Dubai is playing the unfamiliar role of second city.

Dubai opened its elevated metro line in September, but with only about a third of the stations opened. Last January, the state-owned builder Nakheel — which is part of the current debt crisis — said the fiscal crunch forced it to suspend plans for a Dubai skyscraper designed to top the Burj Dubai.

As Dubai's leaders try to calm markets and investors, Abu Dhabi planned a party.

A fireworks show on Wednesday for the UAE's national day was billed as the world's largest display, with 100,000 devices exploding over Abu Dhabi's biggest hotel.



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091202/ap_on_bi_ge/ml_dubai_tallest_tower

So, what do you think of this? I don't believe this entirely simply due to the fact that there's China and Russia to continue building buildings. Meanwhile the economy will recover, htough it might take a few years, and skyscrapers (maybe not uber-talls like the Burj) will spawn again.

I think it might take more than few years. A decade maybe. Its kinda like the Great Depression of the 30's. Everything stopped back then, and it was not until WW2 when the global economy recovered. The history repeats itself. Except that I hope there will be no World War this time...

The Burj isn't the last tower to be built in Dubai as many others continue their rise. The economic conditions do indicate a slowdown in new projects but remember that this latest debt situation began in 2007 with the global credit crunch and many countries are emerging from recession with implications for oil revenues in the region and available cash and credit to invest in places like Dubai. Abu Dhabi will prosper and grow dramatically but it is a ways away from topping Dubai and there are questions as to how large a global market there is for fancy second homes and million dollar pied-a-terres. Dubai got there first, and few people will forget that.

It's not the end of the world.

Nope.

Just look at the supertall construction forum here on SSC. I remember back in 2005 or so when I joined this forum and there were only 33 supertalls in the whole world. Now compare the ones under construction and you'll see a boom is certainly ongoing. :yes:

China will continue to build a lot of skyscrapers. I read somewhere that they want to limit the growth of the cities into the farmland. Where can the city growth else? Into the sky. Maybe the USA will boom again when more and more people will move from the suburbs to the city center.

China will continue to build a lot of skyscrapers. I read somewhere that they want to limit the growth of the cities into the farmland. Where can the city growth else? Into the sky. Maybe the USA will boom again when more and more people will move from the suburbs to the city center.

yes, china is moving forward. nothing can stop us. skyscrapers are just one of many signs that china is catching up to the usa as nr.1 super world power.

yes, china is moving forward. nothing can stop us. skyscrapers are just one of many signs that china is catching up to the usa as nr.1 super world power.

Yes, you can see that there are plans now for a lot of towers with a height between 600 and 700 meters (IE shanghai tower). I think it wont be long until some city gets a tower between 800 and 900 meters. For China, I think the boom just started.

Yes, you can see that there are plans now for a lot of towers with a height between 600 and 700 meters (IE shanghai tower). I think it wont be long until some city gets a tower between 800 and 900 meters. For China, I think the boom just started.
correct. shanghai tower is just the beginning. if u search the internet or even read the papers you will find out that there are some serious tall towers going to be built in the next years. see also zorg's list, it's really impressive. so to answer the question of this thread: NO, china will definitely not stop, on the contrary!

EDIT: it's kind of funny when u think that NYC builts in the 600 - 700 feet range whereas shanghai builts in the 600 - 700 meters range lol :lol:

FOR mexico the skyscraper boom has begun as new towers of 200+ meters pop out in 500,000+ populated citiesin mexico. In mexico city rumors of a supertall and a rotating skyscraper so its not over i guess and has about a hundred proyects and newer ones anouncing.

i have little faith in most americans, so outside of the major skyscraper cities such as chicago or nyc, there will probably be very little highrise/supertall construction.

The U.S. has approximately the same land area as China, but with 1/4 the population. Labor is cheap in China, much more expensive in the U.S. We have only two cities with metro populations above 10 million in the U.S. China has a dozen or more. Skyscrapers will, for the foreseeable future, be much more practical in China than in the U.S.

China is building skyscrapers almost out of necessity not out of vanity. In the future, they will rue the over-urbanization, and large swaths of undeveloped recreational land will be the new luxury status symbol.

The U.S. has approximately the same land area as China, but with 1/4 the population. Labor is cheap in China, much more expensive in the U.S. We have only two cities with metro populations above 10 million in the U.S. China has a dozen or more. Skyscrapers will, for the foreseeable future, be much more practical in China than in the U.S.

China is building skyscrapers almost out of necessity not out of vanity. In the future, they will rue the over-urbanization, and large swaths of undeveloped recreational land will be the new luxury status symbol.

true. in fact china build skyscrapers because it has to. we need office space more than ever. and of course it's a status symbol if you have a couble of 400m+ skyscraper in the city.

the Step from Taipeh 101 to the Burj was to big.


So it needs a lot of years till there´s the possibility to kick this rekord
even now, where you have to look more to the money than to be a show-off



btw: i ´d rather have a few thousands Euros in MY pocket than a few 400m+ in MY town, which doesn´t give me real anything. Even when it happens in the prettiest place on this earth > China

the Step from Taipeh 101 to the Burj was to big.


So it needs a lot of years till there´s the possibility to kick this rekord
even now, where you have to look more to the money than to be a show-off



btw: i ´d rather have a few thousands Euros in MY pocket than a few 400m+ in MY town, which doesn´t give me real anything. Even when it happens in the prettiest place on this earth > China
you're on the wrong site

^^ than more real skyscrapers are built than more it´s no more interesting to built one just for the image. And if its not for the image > then its up to financial reasons


(excuse my bad english)

i have little faith in most americans, so outside of the major skyscraper cities such as chicago or nyc, there will probably be very little highrise/supertall construction.

high rise construction will continue in the U.S., people are moving to urban cores again so new buildings will need to be constructed. look at new york, los angeles, and chicago, there are still 100m buildings being proposed, renderings released, starting construction, or actively searching for financing. supertalls were really just built for vanity and to show off. apart from new york they are not needed. you can get the same floor space far cheaper in 2 buildings half the size in any other city. which is why you find so few. again new york is the exception. New york like China is building them out of necessity.

as for china the building boom will not end anytime soon. just look at its economy. it never really stopped growing even doing the height of the global recession. it slowed but never shank like many other countries.

also i just wanted to throw in another observation that i have seen with skyscraper booms. they never end and thats the case today. the boom just moves to different places, and regions like cycles.

high rise construction will continue in the U.S., people are moving to urban cores again so new buildings will need to be constructed. look at new york, los angeles, and chicago, there are still 100m buildings being proposed, renderings released, starting construction, or actively searching for financing. supertalls were really just built for vanity and to show off. apart from new york they are not needed. you can get the same floor space far cheaper in 2 buildings half the size in any other city. which is why you find so few. again new york is the exception. New york like China is building them out of necessity.

as for china the building boom will not end anytime soon. just look at its economy. it never really stopped growing even doing the height of the global recession. it slowed but never shank like many other countries.

Yep, China is and will always be in a class by itself when it comes to new development. We've barely seen the tip of the iceberg. The scale of efficiencies of tall buildings will make China the ultimate skyscraper nation!

The US is not in as bad a shape as some might think. Our recovery is well underway and except for some highly speculative markets like Miami and Las Vegas, our cities really didn't add much high rise inventory in the past decade. The lessons of the '80s orgy of overbuilding were largely heeded by the banks. Unfortunately, the worst conditions for commercial real estate are in smaller markets and properties that were overleveraged but not the highest class. When that rubble clears, I would expect a good but stable run of skyscraper building.

I feel for Dubai though. They just took a ratings downgrade on their sovereign debt (in sukoks) that has triggered redemption clauses which means more healthy firms suddenly have to pay off bondholders. Dubai will never stop building but it just gets harder do the kinds of incredible things they've done.

btw: i ´d rather have a few thousands Euros in MY pocket than a few 400m+ in MY town, which doesn´t give me real anything. Even when it happens in the prettiest place on this earth > China

And what makes you think that the available money after a "cancelled" skyscraper will end up in your pockets?

I wonder what the future of tall buildings will be though in the long run

It makes sense for a hospital or hotel or apartments in an expensive location to be in tall buildings. So there will always be skyscrapers.

What I wonder about is the long term fate of the hundreds of small suburban midrises that crowd every exit ramp along the freeway in many US cities. Think about it, they are from an era when a business had to have a large office to store all its paper documents and for workers to sit and make phone calls from a desk, or use old fashioned computer terminals. Banks had to keep lots of physical cash laying about, construction companies needed room for rolls and rolls of blueprints and maps, drafting tables, cubicles with PCs to run CAD, etc.

But today as we move towards the paperless office and telecommuting as a more mainstream trend will the large amounts of class-C office space be necessary? Perhaps for some things sure, but then if commercial space declines in price as it would under this scenario then the holdouts will probably move to more glamorous digs in the CBD leaving the mostly empty space they once shared totally derelict. I don't see such a relevant future for the generic suburban midrises everywhere.

Aside from dentists, lawyers, maybe sales offices that store stuff, what is there?

Certainly in large cities, and its a trend happening right now, that many modernist office buildings are being converted into loft apartments. So I think CBD skylines will persist because those monster buildings have some value. But out in the burbs, where many of those buildings are not aging well and are not economical for anything, I actually believe a time will come when they tear down all that class-C office space in cities like Houston.

Most places, yes. At least for Dubai it is. I expect China will eventually follow suit. I don't think there will be as many supertall skyscrapers announced in the next decade, but many carry over’s from this one. The problem is supertall skyscrapers are becoming too expensive to build, and this is becoming true for much of the world. You probably won't be seeing many Burj Dubai's in the future, it's not practical to build like that. China will continue to build some stuff as long as their economy is doing well, but that obviously won't last forever. Places that could see an uptick in the future are places like India, Saudi Arabia, maybe a couple others in Asia. But I think we won’t see a boom like we just did for a long time to come.

China will continue to build some stuff as long as their economy is doing well, but that obviously won't last forever.

no of course not, but till this day comes china will have an amazing mass of supertalls and skyscrapers! saudi arabia? :lol: how can they possibly boost their economy without the oil? don't tell me by selling dates, no offense.

no of course not, but till this day comes china will have an amazing mass of supertalls and skyscrapers! saudi arabia? :lol: how can they possibly boost their economy without the oil? don't tell me by selling dates, no offense.

Well look at the Saudi proposals on this site, it's clear they want to get into the race too. They have oil money, and they’re larger than the UAE. China will continue to build supertalls as long as they are cheap for them to build, the point when they cross that line is not really known. But I guess there won't be as many new ones announced in the future.

Over? Lol. Do you know how many 400m+ towers have been started/approved/proposed in China, Korea, etc, in the last 12 months? :)

Over? Lol. Do you know how many 400m+ towers have been started/approved/proposed in China, Korea, etc, in the last 12 months? :)

We're still in this decade, I'm talking about the next. Supertalls can't keep building themselves forever, I'm particularly skeptical of many of the supertalls in South Korea. Between South Korea and China there is a property bubble being created.

Let's say Chinese economy somehow goes bust and skyscraper constructions stop there.
Oh wait, there are India and Brazil..

The age of skyscrapers is over for Europe for sure (it didn't happen in the first place)

Over? Lol. Do you know how many 400m+ towers have been started/approved/proposed in China, Korea, etc, in the last 12 months? :)

He's just saying that it won't go on forever. There will be a lot of supertalls built in China in the next few years but I certainly don't think it will be even close to seeing all the proposals that exist now built, especially the biggest ones.

The age of skyscrapers is over for Europe for sure (it didn't happen in the first place)

This is wrong...the age of skyscrapers in Europe didn't end....in fact, in Madrid, for example, there are some under construction, or already finished I don't know....also in Portugal, there are some rumors...and and in England and Germany there are numerous plans....the thing is...our city planning most include one factor...history....all european cities have a historic lets call it "skyline" and people, don't want to ruin it with building with 600, 700 or 800m...and most cities in the US, and some cities in Asia don't have this problem...also the urbanism plannig is diferent...in USA the oldest buildings that you have are from the XVII or XVIII century...in Europe they can have 800 or 900 years old....this creates a lot of urban planning problems...

So the age of skyscrapers in Europe? no....but the skyscrapers boom, its more controlled and more sustainable than in other world areas...also...cities are no aiming to sustainability and tall buildings that create a lot of shadow over the citie, and that raise the city temperature are not a solution.

He's just saying that it won't go on forever. There will be a lot of supertalls built in China in the next few years but I certainly don't think it will be even close to seeing all the proposals that exist now built, especially the biggest ones.

The proposal boom is over. The construction boom will continue. Maybe for the next 5 years. After that i don`t know what will happen. In the 40`s and 50`s not many skyscrapers over 150m have been build. But this time it`s different. The entire world is building skyscrapers. In the 80`s 90`s many US city build skyscrapers. The boom ended but in the 90`s China started to build upwards.
I am optimistic that somewhere in world at least 5 x 400m+ skyscrapers will be always u/c.

Well, India hasn't really started, China hasn't really finished and there is potential for many Australian cities to build upwards as their population and economy grows and same with places in other parts of Asia, namely Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan Indonesia etc.

mexico city gets 2 more 200+ meters towers under construction!!:D and a dozen more for latin america its not over for sure!

EDIT: it's kind of funny when u think that NYC builts in the 600 - 700 feet range whereas shanghai builts in the 600 - 700 meters range lol :lol:


What? New York builds and has been building and will contunie to build many buildings much higher than 6-700 feet, also not all of shanghai's towers are that tall either, only one really so far. Unfair comparison.


The age of the skyscraper is certainly starting for China though, and will probably continue here in the USA once the economy gets back on track.

EDIT: it's kind of funny when u think that NYC builts in the 600 - 700 feet range whereas shanghai builts in the 600 - 700 meters range lol :lol:

Not entirely true: there are proposals for 500 and 600m towers in the US. But we are bound by height restrictions due to the FAA and in some major cities, the NIMBYs. And the economics of building much higher than 300m are simply too poor for any developer in the US to aggressively build at that height. Remember, we pay $30-90 per hour for skyscraper construction. That is much higher than what workers in China and many other countries are paid. So while those costs are low, there's less reason to expect chinese firms to pull back on new talls.

Not entirely true: there are proposals for 500 and 600m towers in the US. But we are bound by height restrictions due to the FAA and in some major cities, the NIMBYs. And the economics of building much higher than 300m are simply too poor for any developer in the US to aggressively build at that height. Remember, we pay $30-90 per hour for skyscraper construction. That is much higher than what workers in China and many other countries are paid. So while those costs are low, there's less reason to expect chinese firms to pull back on new talls.

And frankly there's not a need to do so, we have more than enough land. For Fortune 500 companies here is makes more sense in most cases to build a sprawling campus over a skyscraper any day. The money is here to build supertalls too, don't fool yourself. But they make little sense for many of those big companies. In China isn't not an option most places. There will be more US superatalls in the future, particularly in places like California where population growth is high.

The age of the skyscraper is certainly starting for China though, and will probably continue here in the USA once the economy gets back on track.

China will continue to build skyscrapers as long as they have an economy to do so with, no one should expect their current economic boom to last for the greater part of the 21st century. Other world problems will eventually arise that are more pressing than the current global economy. For all the success China is having with its economy today, China is not the US either. People like to get carried away with the current situation making bold predications and forget about history.

It amuses me how people associate skyscrapers high "progress" but don't give a dime about the progress reflected in dozens of thousands of nice, planned suburban developments in America that the Chinese can't even dream about - they just lack space :)

Not entirely true: there are proposals for 500 and 600m towers in the US. But we are bound by height restrictions due to the FAA and in some major cities, the NIMBYs. And the economics of building much higher than 300m are simply too poor for any developer in the US to aggressively build at that height. Remember, we pay $30-90 per hour for skyscraper construction. That is much higher than what workers in China and many other countries are paid. So while those costs are low, there's less reason to expect chinese firms to pull back on new talls.

What? New York builds and has been building and will contunie to build many buildings much higher than 6-700 feet, also not all of shanghai's towers are that tall either, only one really so far. Unfair comparison.


The age of the skyscraper is certainly starting for China though, and will probably continue here in the USA once the economy gets back on track.

of course i was a bit exaggerating. what i wanted to say with this (in a way provocative) statement was that NYC desperatelyneeds new supertalls (excluding 1WTC U/C, gira sole PREP, tower vere APP, WPC PREP, etc etc.). i'm a big fan of NYC, i think everyone knows that already here in this forum. :cheers:

And frankly there's not a need to do so, we have more than enough land. For Fortune 500 companies here is makes more sense in most cases to build a sprawling campus over a skyscraper any day. The money is here to build supertalls too, don't fool yourself. But they make little sense for many of those big companies. In China isn't not an option most places. There will be more US superatalls in the future, particularly in places like California where population growth is high.

That's something that many people overseas don't understand about the US. We have decoupled our major corporate and institutional employers from the skyscraper. Suburban corporate office parks are the norm here so a downtown skyscraper in many cities is more likely to be occupied by government agencies and lawyers than a large company. Personally, I miss the grand old archetype of a Fortune 500 firm headquartered in a soaring office tower in the heart of a city. I love the narrative architecture of the 1920s where a radiator company might build a skyscraper with radiator themed styling or a company like GE had a tower with stylized lightning bolts.
Today, the preferrence is for anonymous looking office campus that could house anything from from major world headquarters to a beauty college.

That's something that many people overseas don't understand about the US. We have decoupled our major corporate and institutional employers from the skyscraper. Suburban corporate office parks are the norm here so a downtown skyscraper in many cities is more likely to be occupied by government agencies and lawyers than a large company. Personally, I miss the grand old archetype of a Fortune 500 firm headquartered in a soaring office tower in the heart of a city. I love the narrative architecture of the 1920s where a radiator company might build a skyscraper with radiator themed styling or a company like GE had a tower with stylized lightning bolts.
Today, the preferrence is for anonymous looking office campus that could house anything from from major world headquarters to a beauty college.

I agree that the thought of not having the world's top companies in soaring skyscrapers seems a little off. However, if I were working at a Fortune 500 company I probably would much rather work at a laid back campus with large offices, amenities, and plush landscaping, than the more tightly confined interiors of a supertall skyscraper. The view certainly wouldn't be as impressive, but there is something about a comfortable working environment that seems more inspirational to me personally. We have plenty of companies that could build supertall skyscrapers if they really wanted to, like Microsoft, Apple, and Google. Microsoft makes more than enough a year to build the world's tallest building, Bill Gates himself could build an American version of Dubai. But the fact that he hasn't makes me believe it's not a very good idea. I'll take Bill's word here, as the world's most successful person. :lol:

But, you know...

MS:
http://www.dualrudder.com/albums/rv7o/images/IMG_2880.jpg

Google:
http://www.blueoakenergy.com/imgs/Google-Solar-project/google-solar-project1.jpg

Apple:
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2031/2294333587_74ba53b7f0_o.jpg

Most large companies have not at all jumped onto the skyscraper bandwagon here. One company that did was Boeing in Chicago, and they built something no one in their right mind would recognize or consider significant. But two companies that have successfully pushed building supertall very recently are Comcast in Philadelphia and Devon Energy in Oklahoma. After visiting the Comcast Center I can tell it's one of the most amazing skyscrapers built in the US in quite some time. I can see why it's been big news, they successfully exploited all the pluses of HQing in a major city. I expect Devon to do the same with their tower, as their proposal seems to be equally compelling for visitors. The one advantage companies have in building a skyscraper in a city is that they can bring the people on the sidewalk inside the building. I think for some companies building a supertall skyscraper would be very beneficial, it just depends who you’re dealing with. They’re should be more supertalls from major companies in the future.

Well i think that the construction boom for skyscrapers will continue in China for some time now, because it's economy seems to be prevailing quite good during the crisis , even though I'll expect a property bust there too.

About Dubai, this is gonna depend on how fast the debts will be payed back, but i strongly believe that investment -and construction- is gonna continue there , albeit not in such numbers as before 2009...
and about Europe and NA , well here I think the chances aren't that good since this is the area that has been hit most by the financial crisis, so we'll see how it works out here...

also i just wanted to throw in another observation that i have seen with skyscraper booms. they never end and thats the case today. the boom just moves to different places, and regions like cycles.


Africa, with most of the highest rates of population growth & urbanization, may have the next skyscraper boom.

^oh yes, given the vast resources, and the fact most of the fastest growing economies, and the fastest urbanising populations are now in Africa. Given all the bad press for the Chinese companies 'exploiting' African states, theyve built huge infrastructure and invested massive amounts that are making a real difference, and notably dealing with 'failed states' the rest of the world won't touch. The Chinese policy tends to be don't ask question's, and don't get involved in the politics, or wars (eg Sudan, Chad, Somalia, Zimbabwe) though infamously they sell arms to both sides, underwriting the conflicts.

Its not any difference though from what Western companies have been doing for decades (and still are, buying up the nations resources and food, and selling it back to the Africans, and maintaining a capitalist hierarchy of business and poverty), but this time the Chinese aren't burning the ladder behind them. The idea is that they will develop Africa up enough to have a trade bloc going, rather than just a massive mine for exploitation. Road and rail systems, education and industry are all being developed on a massive scale. $2 billion has been loaned to Congo, $3 billion paid to Angola for oil, $5 billion to Nigeria. 150 govt debts owed by 32 African countries were also cancelled. Already over a million Chinese live in Africa, starting African families, and vice versa in China as hundreds of thousands of market traders move to the south (eg Guangzhou and its 200,000 strong 'NigeriaTown'), almost doubling in size each year.

"But there is much more going on than a meet, greet and grab from the African continent. China has big economic plans and ambitions in Africa that go beyond oil and minerals. While much of the world still views Africa as a basket-case continent, Beijing is thinking ahead and busy establishing a foothold in Africa's potentially large consumer markets...
But China has caught on to something that eludes most governments and companies in the West. Chinese state-owned and private enterprises believe African consumers could be the great untapped gold mine. Beijing's engagement with African leaders and governments is increasingly about ensuring that Chinese firms are best placed to sell their products when Africans start buying.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1934868,00.html#ixzz0Zl0pTWNE

"At the state level, African leaders are very positive about the presence of the Chinese. “There is no one like the Chinese,” said Lansana Conte, former President of Guinea. “At least they work. They live with us in the mud ….” Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade praised Chinese workers in similar terms. “China is doing a much better job than western capitalists in responding to market demands in Africa.” Festus Mogae, former President of Botswana was no less appreciative. “… I prefer the attitude of China to that of the West."

"-however friction does arise as the Chinese are replacing African labour pools, and in 2006, Zambian opposition leader, Michael Sata accused China of using Zambia as a dumping ground for Chinese citizens."

Read more at Suite101: China's Long March into Africa: New Faces in the Old Continent of Africa | Suite101.com http://sasianchineseaffairs.suite101.com/article.cfm/chinas_long_march_into_africa#ixzz0ZkwPn6LS

^^ Time actually had an article on this subject in their last issue. Except, they took the the opposite point of view. 'twas an interesting read, especially when it comes to Papua New Guinea.

yep, China is still exploiting Africa (as is the West) - something like 70 percent of its timber comes from there for one, but that isnt exactly something uncommon in the globalised, capitalist business world (compare that to Western banks that charge Africa $8 in astronomical interest for every $1 given in charity, the original loans already paid back many times over, and billions in debt owed, or private companies that buy up the entire water sources of a nation then charge the people to use it).

The difference is the Chinese are looking to target a potential consumer force of over a billion, when Africans start buying. Its not just hunting for resources like everyone else, its strategy is to set up a pan-continental trading bloc that will last longer than any resource, and invest in the continent becoming middle class. Hence why so many African nations are on the rise now. Africa will have the potential to be at China's current stage one day - the factory of the world turning out products for Chinese consumers, while buying Chinese products themselves.

Rising African cities

Kinshasa u/c:

http://i396.photobucket.com/albums/pp49/bukavu_2008/KINSHASA/master-plan5.jpg http://i396.photobucket.com/albums/pp49/bukavu_2008/master-plan4.jpg

Luanda SCROLL>>>> (capital of the world's fastest growing major economy, Angola

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3566/3415434331_0426d46ebc_o.jpg

Luanda's Camama city u/c

http://www.travel.citic.com.cn/iwcm/UserFiles/Content/-42023128291301684832008-07-10.jpg

Nairobi

http://img166.imageshack.us/img166/1755/kiccpc1.jpg

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/127/349338522_129b2dc670.jpg?v=0 http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2301/2186636781_0153257e14.jpg?v=0

Abidjan

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_05yJVcyzTu4/SULc9KU-fqI/AAAAAAAAAKA/RY9bU57CSSo/s640/DSC08488.JPG http://mw2.google.com/mw-panoramio/photos/medium/6604064.jpg

Dakar

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2003/2071541334_a6807e3384_o.jpg

Lagos

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/1641/75280817yjtudiph17cb.jpg

Harare

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2332/1535740686_68774871ac_b.jpg

Johannesburg

http://i212.photobucket.com/albums/cc40/andresannman/skyline-DBN.jpg

Cairo

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b2/View_from_Cairo_Tower_31march2007.jpg

http://www.lucienschranz.com/arabia/cairo5.jpg

http://www.schefferj.ps.hu/images/Egypt/Cairo/CairoLandscape2_800.jpg

China has to stop worshipping money and exploit the weakers, treating them like a dirt. I would also suggest them to stop terrorising Europe by immigrating and selling the horrible items. That's an invasion. Leave them free and independent. If China stops eating their own Chinese cuisines, their filthy will to crusade Europe is going to stop, by understanding them spiritually. They are only thinking about themselves. You have not learnt from the western colonisation, the feeling have been invaded. The capitalism is an evil lie. I support the socialism.

The difference is the Chinese are looking to target a potential consumer force of over a billion, when Africans start buying. Its not just hunting for resources like everyone else, its strategy is to set up a pan-continental trading bloc that will last longer than any resource, and invest in the continent becoming middle class. Hence why so many African nations are on the rise now. Africa will have the potential to be at China's current stage one day - the factory of the world turning out products for Chinese consumers, while buying Chinese products themselves.

I think your reading way too much into it. Africa is in no way "on the rise". China's is not going to waste their time with something like that, China can't even get it's own house in order. And it's not something any country or collection of countries can change because it's starts with the African leadership. I don't see that as changing in the next 40 years..

China has to stop worshipping money

^^ Yes, they do like money.

But who are you to tell other people to abandon their cultural preferences?

How would you like to be told to stop worshiping your God, simply because they hate what you are doing? I'm sure you wouldn't like that.

and exploit the weakers, treating them like a dirt.

^^ China is doing the best it can to make use of its huge low-skilled workforce.

You have to realize that China is still generally a developing country. It still can't afford to provide a comprehensive universal social safety net as the West can.

And besides, these huge army of low-skilled workers are much better-off working in low-paying factories than in their farming villages.

It is encouraging to note that China's tertiary education system is not only growing in scope and scale but also improving in quality. Last yeat, the number of Chinese engineering graduates surpassed the 500,000 mark (which is equal to the the combined figure for the U.S. and India). Through a better tertiary educational system, China's workforce would slowly become more high-skilled. This would bring spearhead a new knowledge-based revolution which would elevate the service sector (the least developed sector in the Chinese economy).

As better-skilled workers, ever newer batches of Chinese graduates would have ever higher propensity of getting hired in high-paying white-collar jobs.

I would also suggest them to stop terrorising Europe by immigrating and selling the horrible items. That's an invasion.

^^ Are you crazy?! That's a harsh and unfounded accusation. China has never been involved in external terrorism of any sort.

And besides, the influx of cheap low-quality China-made goods has significantly helped in minimizing the inflation rates of much of Western Europe and North America.

Leave them free and independent.

^^ Last time I checked, the Europeans were the ones who tried to subdivide China during the "Age of Discovery" (or should I say, "Age of Colonialism").

If China stops eating their own Chinese cuisines, their filthy will to crusade Europe is going to stop, by understanding them spiritually.

^^ Now that's just a rude and racist comment.

They are only thinking about themselves. You have not learnt from the western colonisation, the feeling have been invaded.

^^ It is only logical that personal interests come first over the interests of others. In fact, it is the mantra of evolution: "Survival of the fittest." The capitalism is an evil lie. I support the socialism. Altruism is hard, especially in an ever competitive global environment.

The best way to be appear altruistic (despite being self-centered) is through the finding of solutions to globally-mutual interests (i.e., meetings on the issue of climate change in Copenhagen).

China has to stop worshipping money and exploit the weakers, treating them like a dirt. I would also suggest them to stop terrorising Europe by immigrating and selling the horrible items. That's an invasion. Leave them free and independent. If China stops eating their own Chinese cuisines, their filthy will to crusade Europe is going to stop, by understanding them spiritually. They are only thinking about themselves. You have not learnt from the western colonisation, the feeling have been invaded. The capitalism is an evil lie. I support the socialism.

WTF? :weird:

^ clikinghere is a spambot.

^ clikinghere is a spambot.

yeah, don't take him serious. his only aim is to spread hate and anger among the forumers. :ohno:
and i think that china's growing meddling in africa is good for the people there. china gives them money, loans and hope. not to mention the construction of buildings, motorways, pipelines etc.

He's just saying that it won't go on forever. There will be a lot of supertalls built in China in the next few years but I certainly don't think it will be even close to seeing all the proposals that exist now built, especially the biggest ones.

Well, I've been following supertall news in China quite closely over the last 3 years and these are the main trends.

1- I delete 1-2 proposals a month from my lists on the average. I delete any building when we have no news for more than 18 months. Normally either concept proposals with no news for too long (sometimes they come back a long time later) or vague props which I "guess" that they should be taller than 300m but finally they are just 250-299m.

2- I add around 5 proposals a month on the average.

3- Once-twice a month some proposal is revised, normally (90% of times) upwards.

4- Back in 2007-2008, most projects in my lists were proposals, many of them long term proposals without a real design, without a developer, etc. Today half of them are either u/c or approved and expecting construction start in a short term (6-12 months).

5- Back in 2007 we had 0 proposals taller than the SWFC. Today it ranks 17th in my list, 9th if you include approved projects only.

6- The % of 400m+ and 500m+ has simply skyrocketed since mid 2008. They were vere rare before, countless 300-360m projects prior to 2008, but very few taller than 400m. Now they are being announced everywhere.

This list is from August 2006, only 3 years ago. Notice that back then I wasn't too rigorous, and I used to add any vague proposal I found, even if they weren't formally proposed and just design proposals by some architect. Also I used to list them as u/c as soon as ssp claimed so (stupid me, yeah).

You have 54 projects here, 40 of them built, u/c or approved in some way. Though many of them appear as u/c, only 10 of them were truly u/c.
Also:
- Jinling Fuguang was never a real project, just a proposal by an architect.
- The height of the Great China twins was never confirmed.
- The Ningbo twins were a concept proposal which was not included in the final layout of the new district of Ningbo
- Feng Long center was never approved (deleted now)
- Changsha twins were never approved either
- Shanghai Gate of Hongkou was only a proposal by an architect

http://i245.photobucket.com/albums/gg64/z0rgggg/others2/others3/ag2006.jpg

3 years and 3 months later. Though this list is only 7~ weeks old it is quite outdated already. 3-4 projects have been revised upwards, a few more have been announced, started, etc.
http://i245.photobucket.com/albums/gg64/z0rgggg/others2/november2009total.jpg

I think your reading way too much into it. Africa is in no way "on the rise". China's is not going to waste their time with something like that, China can't even get it's own house in order. And it's not something any country or collection of countries can change because it's starts with the African leadership. I don't see that as changing in the next 40 years..

Quite true, Africa can use lots of improvement when it comes to leadership. But even in that respect its made significant headway over the past decade. China no more than the US can afford not to "waste their time" with Africa. Given that Africa has large quanities of the commodies & resources that they need to fuel their economies.

Not the least of which is oil

Quite true, Africa can use lots of improvement when it comes to leadership. But even in that respect its made significant headway over the past decade. China no more than the US can afford not to "waste their time" with Africa. Given that Africa has large quanities of the commodies & resources that they need to fuel their economies.

Not the least of which is oil

The question is how well african countries can manage these relationships. There are many stories of a kind of neo-colonial plundering of Africa's farmlands, water resources, as well as its mineral wealth. The often dysfunctional political leadership in many countries actually fosters this situation by allowing deals to be structured that give the illusion of independence while money flows into the right pockets and foreign interests are allowed to do as they please.

@ zOrg: Many economists are watching a huge real estate bubble expand in China. Some are predicting trouble in the second quarter of 2010 and it appears the government is just allowing it to grow without intervention. My question is how rapidly is all this new inventory being absorbed and by what firms? How many of these supertalls are being built entirely on spec? And since, unlike Dubai, so many of these projects are commercial office space, what is the driving factor behind building so much so soon? Does China now have 3 CITICs instead of one? Or three CNOOCs? Sooner or later, this market will rationalize and if it doesn't, we'll be witnessing another Dubai.

The question is how well african countries can manage these relationships. There are many stories of a kind of neo-colonial plundering of Africa's farmlands, water resources, as well as its mineral wealth. The often dysfunctional political leadership in many countries actually fosters this situation by allowing deals to be structured that give the illusion of independence while money flows into the right pockets and foreign interests are allowed to do as they please.

Yea, exactly, those are very tough challenges that we spend lots of time discussing & debating on the African forums.

On China's real estate, I'm sure China's cities too will to will see many bubbles, booms & busts, only to rise again.

The difference is that China has many Dubais, a few will fall, while many others flourish.

The age is certainly over in Europe and North America but look at Asia! China is booming and skyscrapers are coming up everywhere and Arab Nations just keep on building

Quite true, Africa can use lots of improvement when it comes to leadership. But even in that respect its made significant headway over the past decade. China no more than the US can afford not to "waste their time" with Africa. Given that Africa has large quanities of the commodies & resources that they need to fuel their economies.
Not the least of which is oil

I don't see where you’re coming from there, if Africa has significant fuel resources people would have dug into them a long time ago. I still think Africa's not going anywhere anytime soon. The only real reason anyone is even mentioning Africa is because of the "Global Economy". And the global economy is not going to last forever.

@ zOrg: Many economists are watching a huge real estate bubble expand in China. Some are predicting trouble in the second quarter of 2010 and it appears the government is just allowing it to grow without intervention. My question is how rapidly is all this new inventory being absorbed and by what firms? How many of these supertalls are being built entirely on spec? And since, unlike Dubai, so many of these projects are commercial office space, what is the driving factor behind building so much so soon? Does China now have 3 CITICs instead of one? Or three CNOOCs? Sooner or later, this market will rationalize and if it doesn't, we'll be witnessing another Dubai.

My sources say a massive collapse could come around 2020, but it could be earlier from the looks of things. Who knows. The Chinese economy will probably take a rather large dip eventually, and it may not recover the steam it once had.

I don't see where you’re coming from there, if Africa has significant fuel resources people would have dug into them a long time ago. I still think Africa's not going anywhere anytime soon. The only real reason anyone is even mentioning Africa is because of the "Global Economy". And the global economy is not going to last forever.

Perhaps you don't realize that some of the fastest-growing sources of oil are in Africa: Nigeria has been a big source of oil for decades & Angola is becoming an even bigger exporter. So too is Sudan.

The US, along with Asia & Europe certainly understands Africa's vital significance as source of future resouces.

Why do think that the Pentagon created an Africa Command?

Just for the sake of goodwill?

The age is certainly over in Europe and North America but look at Asia! China is booming and skyscrapers are coming up everywhere and Arab Nations just keep on building

Why is it over in North America? North America is still very young, I think you need to be careful about what you say. We'll still be growing after much of Asia has stoped.

Perhaps you don't realize that some of the fastest-growing sources of oil are in Africa: Nigeria has been a big source of oil for decades & Angola is becoming an even bigger exporter. So too is Sudan.

The US, along with Asia & Europe certainly understands Africa's vital significance as source of future resouces.

Why do think that the Pentagon created an Africa Command?

Just for the sake of goodwill?

I'm sure, but I don't see US compaines running over there getting in line for oil feilds.

And Al Qaeda of course, there are terrorists in Africa too you know.

The age is certainly over in Europe and North America but look at Asia! China is booming and skyscrapers are coming up everywhere and Arab Nations just keep on building

Utter nonsense. The US, with a $15 trillion economy could build a Dubai every month if we wanted to. We don't want to. Canada is building lots of new talls and Mexico is just getting started. Europe's cities are unrecognizable, even from 10 years ago they have been building so much. China will absolutely build amazing cities and skylines as will so many other regions. The world has caught the skyscraper bug and only overbuilding has slowed it down.

I think your reading way too much into it. Africa is in no way "on the rise". China's is not going to waste their time with something like that, China can't even get it's own house in order. And it's not something any country or collection of countries can change because it's starts with the African leadership. I don't see that as changing in the next 40 years..

I don't see where you’re coming from there, if Africa has significant fuel resources people would have dug into them a long time ago. I still think Africa's not going anywhere anytime soon. The only real reason anyone is even mentioning Africa is because of the "Global Economy". And the global economy is not going to last forever.

In 1970, the same was said about China and India.

And back then, the idea of the tallest building in 2010 being in Dubai would have been a joke, because it was nothing but a dusty town back then.

The age is certainly over in Europe and North America but look at Asia! China is booming and skyscrapers are coming up everywhere and Arab Nations just keep on building

I wouldn't say that about North America. The US and Canada are still growing by 10-15% every decade as they have been for 100 years.

Cities like Chicago and New York, Toronto have built skyscrapers by the hundreds in the past 10 years. The economy might be going through hell and real estate is "upset" right now - but I've seen nothing that says the fundamentals of these cities or all the other cities of North America have changed in their treatment of the highrise.

I moved here in 2001 (Chicago), and this city has built dozens and dozens of tall buildings since then. Except for this bubble in the economy the city would have kept building with no reason to quit. The region is growing and there is demand. Why would this stop once the economy picks back up? There are always ups and downs, but the age of the skyscraper is not over by any means.

In 1970, the same was said about China and India.

And back then, the idea of the tallest building in 2010 being in Dubai would have been a joke, because it was nothing but a dusty town back then.

Eventually Africa will come around, yes. I like to think of Africa as Earth's final frontier. But I also have to consider the sources, and they don't mention Africa.

That being said, I guess it's anyone's guess...

@ zOrg: Many economists are watching a huge real estate bubble expand in China. Some are predicting trouble in the second quarter of 2010 and it appears the government is just allowing it to grow without intervention. My question is how rapidly is all this new inventory being absorbed and by what firms? How many of these supertalls are being built entirely on spec? And since, unlike Dubai, so many of these projects are commercial office space, what is the driving factor behind building so much so soon? Does China now have 3 CITICs instead of one? Or three CNOOCs? Sooner or later, this market will rationalize and if it doesn't, we'll be witnessing another Dubai.

1- Vacancy rates in China are certainly high (10-25%) in comparison with mature markets. That's mostly because the available floor stock is still very low in all the second and three tier cities, meaning that when a new tower is completed the total office stock in the city increases sharply. And there are many projects being finished these years.

2- In order to avoid bottlenecks, you need high vacancy rates in China. China's economy is skyrocketing, a low vacancy rate is very unhealthy. Shanghai had a serious bottleneck of office supply in late 2007, when the vacancy rate dropped to 1-2%, that's crazy for a city whose economy registers double digit growth. Fortunately they finished many large projects in the following months (SWFC, Park Place, BOEA Tower, etc), so the vacancy rate jumped again.
http://i245.photobucket.com/albums/gg64/z0rgggg/others2/others3/shq3-1.png

3- Instead of paying too much attention to the vacancy rates, people should wonder how long takes the current available office to be absorbed by the market. Good example is Beijing, one of the only already mature office markets in China, whose vacancy rate has kept stable around 15-20% the whole decade as countles monster midrise complexes were completed year after year. Trolls have bashed Beijing in this forum over and over claiming that the finished projects will take decades to be absorbed by the market. If you look at this chart carefully you'll notice that the market takes only 2 years to absorb the available space, that's pretty reasonable. However back in late 2007 the occupied offce area was slighty higher than the total available stock just 1 year earlier, rather unhealthy.
http://i245.photobucket.com/albums/gg64/z0rgggg/others2/others3/bjq3-1.png

4- Many cities in China have suffered serious bubbles in the residential market. But you know, China is growing 10%~ a year. Just a few quarters after the bubble implodes the real demand catches up with the supply again. Real estate bubbles don't last much in booming economies especialy if the city has a very hot immigration preassure and wages grow 10-18% a year on the average while inflation remains around 2-4.5%. Floor prices have grown much slower than the household income over the last years.

About the buyers, you know the Chinese companies are booming. Many going public/listed every year, etc. Companies from China Mainland in the Forbes Global 2000 list (this ranking includes listed companies only):
2005: 19
2006: 28
2007: 42
2008: 70
2009: 91
Add the oceans of SMEs being created every year, add the fact that many of these towers contain hotels (domestic toursim booming in China, China becoming world's first country by international tourist arrivals in a short-mid term) Etc :cheers:

China's GDP is expected to triple over the next decade. Given that its economy will be more domestic consumption and services oriented as industry, exports and fixed asset investments areas lose importance, the office area demand should soar even faster.

Utter nonsense. The US, with a $15 trillion economy could build a Dubai every month if we wanted to. We don't want to..

No, you can't!

No, you can't!

Bill Gates could build Dubai himself, at one point he was worth 100 billion dollars. But the point that he never did makes me believe it's not a good idea, being the world's most successful person and all. :)

^^ It's not just about money ... FT comes to mind.

@zOrg:
Unless Shanghai is a small office market ( which it isn't ) , those wild swings in its vacancy rate should be of real concern. How do you align anything coming out of the ground with those numbers? Also, how can you have real adjusted wage inflation of "10-18%" while recording an overall inflation rate of "2-4.5%"? The only answer is that the central government is absorbing the difference by maintaining subsidies on a variety of goods and services. As the incomes grow and buying power increases, this puts a lot of pressure on the government to either relax subsidies and risk the social fallout, or maintain them and risk the squeeze on available capital that they might need for other things. I do like those absorption stats for Beijing. they indicate a steady increase in supply without any serious long term vacancy issues. It is indeed a healthy chart for a fast growing market. And really, 20% vacancies are not a problem considering that new buildings rarely come onto the market fully leased. I still wonder about that rollercoaster ride happening in the Shanghai chart... :cheers:

^^ It's not just about money ... FT comes to mind.

But that's all Dubai is about, MONEY. New York is New York, its strict and a political mess in itself! There's plenty of room here to build 10 or 20 American Dubai's if someone really wanted too.

No, you can't!

Well let's just say that if we wanted to, there wouldn't be a lot of bankers willing to lend for such a purpose :) It'd have to come out of the federal budget and the politics of that would send anyone to drink! :scouserd:

ehh, removed.

No, the age of the skyscraper is not over. Skyscrapers will still be built all across the world. The reason why places like China and other Asian countries build so many is partly because they have to, due to lack of land and abundance of people. The US will continue to build them as well, just not at the same rate. There is an abundance of land here and a culture that, whether we like it or not, prefers a suburban lifestyle. Still, scrapers will continue to rise. The credit crunch is over, as is the US recession. GDP grew by 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009.