Do you think HK and Shenzhen will merge to form a kind of economic zone and mega city in 10 years time

Shenzhen Population and GDP: 10 million USD35Billion

Hong Kong Population and GDP: 7.2 million USD170billion

aside from the obvious legislative, cultural and physical barriers, and admittedly those are several high barriers to direct-unification :wallbash: , i believe a new mega city is already forming--

including macau...

i don't know if the area will ever be formalized as a 'city' entity, but the area is already now considered a 'region' and that's a relatively new status reflective of these past few burgeoning years--

as new major infrastructure (and continued commerce and TIME) develops, the mega-city of HK-Sn will converge, as noted by young HKers who already cross the border for 'sin-city'-type adventures in Shenzhen on weekends...

Rem Koolhaas actually touched on this subject in his book, Mutations, about the Pearl River Delta (Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Macau, etc.) becoming a megalopolis of sorts.
I don't know that it is necessary for these 3 cities to formally unite as ONE new city (what would you name it?), but I do agree that some measures of collaboration on commerce, trading, economics, etc. ought to be happening for the entire region as a whole.
Does anyone have any updates on the proposed bridges/highways that's supposed to connect the northwest territory of Hong Kong with China and Macau? Has it be axed?

it's on fast-track development-- construction is expected to start jan 2006 i believe

In fact they are a region right now. They will never become one city ofcourse.

The Pearl River Delta (PRD), including Guangzhou, is right now one of the most important regions in the world!

Shenzhen would not have been there without HK, so in fact it is a part of HK. :)

The bridge from Hong Kong to Zhuhai / Macau is being planned. Hong Kong and Shenzhen won't merge. Property prices differ too much and if people are allowed to freely travel between the two cities the property market in HK's northern suburbs will collapse.

I doubt Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Macau would become one city. But it sure will, and in some sense already is, a "region".

There are many instances like this around the world. In Texas, where I live, for example, we have the Dallas-Arlington-Ft. Worth "metropolitan area" made up of three cities with three different administrative organizations.

Hong Kong and Shenzhen won't merge.

Is the matter of time..when Shenzhen reached the level of HK standard... :)
As Chairman Deng said... 50 years never change but after that or earlier who will know? :)

Yes, housingprices in Shenzhen are rising faster then in HK I think. When this prices are the same, HKskylines problem is solved.

But in fact Shenzhen is already a part of HK, without HK there was no city there now.

it seems with each passing day the PRD becomes more powerful, more integrated and more developed...


Wednesday, May 12, 2004
Price rises widen gap between rich and poor

Polarisation in a growing two-tier market will see budget-home developments moving to suburban areas or across the border


ERNEST KONG
A growing price difference between luxury and mass residential properties will gradually drive budget home-seekers to suburban areas as developers try to tap demand for high-quality units at their prime urban sites.

The formation of two-tier residential prices, typical for developed cities such as New York and London, is becoming more obvious as luxury home prices rise faster than prices for lower-end homes.

Andrew Ness, executive director of global research and consulting, Asia, at CB Richard Ellis, said the price of top-end residential properties had increased 60 per cent to 80 per cent in the past six months, while mass residential prices had risen only 30 per cent to 35 per cent in the same period.

Some super-deluxe transactions have even set a new record since the economic downturn in 1997.

A company privately held by Richard Li Tzar-kai sold the house at 22-24 Gough Hill Road for more than $25,000 per square foot, while Swire Properties sold a penthouse at The Albany for $168 million ($22,584 per square foot). More jaw-dropping deals seem to be on the horizon; Sun Hung Kai Properties (SHKP) announced its intention to sell its Severn Road project, while New World aims to sell 33-35 Island Road for more than $20,000 per square foot.

Apart from super-deluxe residences, flats larger than 1,000 sqft are also in demand, with developers increasing unit sizes in recent projects to tap an increasing demand for large units.

However, according to the Centa-City Leading Index, which reflects prices of secondary private residential properties, mass residential prices have increased only to November 2000 levels.

Professor Chau Kwong-wing of Hong Kong University's department of real estate and construction expected such polarisation of prices to continue - or even widen - in future.

He said recent changes such as the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (Cepa) and the relaxing of travel restrictions on mainland tourists would reinforce the trend, as only a small group of people in Hong Kong would benefit directly from these policies.

Income polarisation would continue, which would lead to a wider price gap.

"Residential price polarisation is a normal process in a developed city as people's incomes increase over time ... it is possible to see Hong Kong following the example of Manhattan or London.

"As traditional luxury locations are very limited, developers, in a bid to tap surging demand of luxury flats, resort to creating luxury districts themselves through massive marketing campaigns," said Dr Chau, citing Residence Bel-Air at Cyberport as an example.

Developers such as Hongkong Land and SHKP recently sold Ivy On Belcher's in Western District and 8 Waterloo Road in Yau Ma Tei at premium prices compared with the district's secondary prices. With developers able to sell their new projects in old urban districts at premium prices, new low-end homes will be pushed further away from urban areas as developers are lured into launching high-end residential blocks in districts not traditionally known for their luxury housing.

"In the longer run, I will not be surprised to see more and more budget homes moving to suburban areas, even across the borders, provided with improvements in transport infrastructure."

Eddie Hui Chi-man, an associate professor at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, said there was a gap in the market for mid-tier homes of 700 sqft to 1,000 sqft, but new projects had fewer medium-sized flats. "The demand for medium-sized flats mainly comes from people upgrading from their first flats," Dr Hui said.

"However, many of them are still suffering from negative equity. I foresee the demand for such flats increasing as economic fundamentals pick up and there is a drop in the number of negative equity cases."

He said such a gap in demand was more visible in the early stages of an economic recovery, and would gradually close as vacancies fell in line with improved economic fundamentals.

"In the long term, the demand for large units needs to be supported by a steady stream of buyers upgrading their unit sizes," said Dr Hui.

:grouphug:

How much undeveloped land still exists between Shenzhen and Hong Kong? Is there any or are the two cities already contiguous with total urban development right up to one another?

I don't know if they will form one city politically.... but they will certainly form a single urban metropolis soon.

How much undeveloped land still exists between Shenzhen and Hong Kong? Is there any or are the two cities already contiguous with total urban development right up to one another?

I don't know if they will form one city politically.... but they will certainly form a single urban metropolis soon.

there's still a huge strip of land which is undeveloped at the border (hong kong side).

the huge strip of protected land *should be protected* i say...

but there's already discussion to develop it as a marketable visa-less zone for mainlanders and HKers to conduct business, conventions, etc...

:drunk:

http://www.gesource.ac.uk/city/hongkong12.jpg
http://www.gesource.ac.uk/city/hongkong20.jpg

The biggest border crossing at Lo Wu. To the north of the river is Shenzhen and to the south is Hong Kong. The entire stretch of land on the HK side is not developed. The nearest town is Sheung Shui, a short train ride to the south.

http://www.gesource.ac.uk/city/hongkong19.jpg

A similar pattern to the west of Lo Wu. Notice the HK side south of the river and bay is undeveloped but the Shenzhen side is built up.

they are pretty much one continous region ...
with a tight border ...
i dont' see the border going away anytime soon though ...
the gap between the two place isn't just prices ...

Let's all hope it never happens. Shenzen sucks. We've already got their smog, that's enough.

i think it'll happen one day.

but it won't be in like 20-30 years' time.

http://www.businessweek.com/1997/24/art24/a24mac1.gif

http://www.gesource.ac.uk/city/hongkong19.jpg

Actually, the Mai Po nature reserve is around this area on the Hong Kong side. This whole region is rural countryside, while across the river is urban Shenzhen.

Let's all hope it never happens. Shenzen sucks. We've already got their smog, that's enough.


Exactly.

These are something we got from SZ and Guangdong so far:

+++Crime (- Public security)
Sars / +Smog (- Public health)
++Spit / +Litter (- Public spirit)

One city? It is when HK ends. I hope it won't fuccking happen.



Though some SZ ppl are nice and the city as well... but majority of them....

once Macau's legendary morose-energy is 'cleaned-up' in several years with TEAM Vega$ moving in, change will escalate in pace for the region...

hopefully HK stays strong and determined and embraces change, as time continues to march on... i believe this particular time to be difficult and great transition, but that also means HK can affect its neighbors positively too--

:)

HK and Shenzhen urged to co-operate


Hong Kong and Shenzhen have been urged to set aside individual ambitions and create a single, integrated trade transport hub to serve the south China region.

Tung Chee-chen, chairman of Orient Overseas International and brother of Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, said the integration of Hong Kong and Shenzhen into a single logistics hub would create a powerful "economic entity of 14 million people" serving a market of 450 million consumers. But he said the goal could only be realised if regulatory and infrastructural limitations on both sides of the border were eliminated.

"Hong Kong's intermodal capabilities are inextricably linked to Shenzhen and we must all therefore work together to create a single hub," Mr Tung told delegates at the inaugural Logistics Hong Kong conference yesterday.

:drunk:

Exactly.

These are something we got from SZ and Guangdong so far:

+++Crime (- Public security)
Sars / +Smog (- Public health)
++Spit / +Litter (- Public spirit)

One city? It is when HK ends. I hope it won't fuccking happen.



Though some SZ ppl are nice and the city as well... but majority of them....

Don't forget they are doing the dirty jobs for you guys and HK is living at the expense of the mainland. Many polluting factories behind the border are owned by HK companies.

i just thought of this...would it be a hindrance to any further development/collaboration when Hong Kong and China drive on opposite sides of the road? I understand that there is currently a lot of truck traffic crossing the borders everyday, but it seems to me for logistics and practical reasons that it will be much easier for the Pearl River Delta to become a mega region when there is an overall common standards?

Exactly.

These are something we got from SZ and Guangdong so far:

+++Crime (- Public security)
Sars / +Smog (- Public health)
++Spit / +Litter (- Public spirit)

One city? It is when HK ends.

Though some SZ ppl are nice and the city as well... but majority of them....

I think HK people do Spit/Litter...
Smog = HK has too many cars ... (every city in the world are facing this problem too)

HK won't ends and will become better, however more and more citizen will be moving to shenzhen or the nearby region to live.... to reduce stress and enjoy life...


"In the analysis on Hong Kong property ownership in the mainland, 214,000 households had an interest in residential property across the border.

Of these households 80,000 are actually living in some form of public housing in Hong Kong.

More than 40,000 households in public rental housing have a second home in China and 27 per cent of all residential property rented in China by Hong Kong residents is being rented by public housing tenants.

In sum, some people in public housing are so well off that they can afford not only the fancy car but a holiday home as well, which only goes to show that we did not have to wait for universal suffrage to become a welfare state."

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/thestandard/..%5Cthestandard%5Ccolumn_detail_frame.cfm?articleid=317

I hope it won't fuccking happen.
Don;t be so pessimistic to China, Shenzhen...

Forget all Smog, Crimes, disseases.. These are all the processes and consequences that would happen to any developing country.... Believe me if you are in London, NYC in the 1950 the City there are heavily polluted.

No one in this world like smog, disseases and crimes.... I think CHina is starting doing recycle, controlling crime... however it require sometimes....
Lastly, don't be afraid to become Chinese, u should be proud of being one of them...

Why should HK set aside anything for Shenzen? HK is already the transit hub for Asia. HK doesn't need anything from Shenzen. The Chinese are only pushing this so they can take more away from HK and put it across the border.

Why should HK set aside anything for Shenzen? HK is already the transit hub for Asia. HK doesn't need anything from Shenzen. The Chinese are only pushing this so they can take more away from HK and put it across the border.

Typical moronic view. Just naming a few things: You do need water, don't you? You do need food, don't you? You do need energy, don't you?

Guess, where all these things are coming from?

Talking about China taking away whatsoever from HK, without China HK would still be a negligible little British outpost somewhere in Southern China.

HK should be grateful because it's pretty much living off China. Many of HK's utilities and natural resources come from China. Steel and concrete come from China. A lot of water, electricity, etc. come from China. Without connections to China, Hong Kong is one stuck duck.

Still, though, the way China treats Hong Kong leaves a bit to be desired.
Also, Shenzhen and Hong Kong are far too different to be fully interconnected at this time and in the near future. The large differences in infrastructure, laws, education, and moral standards won't allow the two cities to get along as one in their respective current states.

The fact that Shenzhen (from my experiences) isn't one of China's more pleasant cities doesn't help.

I am proud to be a chinese ... but to be honest the difference between the two cities isn't just about money ...
citizens from outer provinces flocked to shenzhen when the border opened for outer-province people ...
and from what i have heard ...
the city is even messier and scarier than before ...

btw hk along with singapore has the least car per capita in the world ...
something like 40 privately owned cars/1000inhabitants ...
the pollution problem of guangdong is regional
all cities need to work together to decrease pollution ...
its not about who to blame ...
its about solving the pollution problem ...

Why should HK set aside anything for Shenzen? HK is already the transit hub for Asia. HK doesn't need anything from Shenzen. The Chinese are only pushing this so they can take more away from HK and put it across the border.

You 'd better convert these comments. You know who always begs mainland to help the development of HK. Mainland takes away nothing from HK.
Shenzhen by all means will not be part of HK in future. No matter how ugly , dirty and polluted Shenzhen is, it also pays tax to mainland not only get something from mainland.

Shenzhen and Hong Kong can become one mega city only when standard of living in Shenzhen reached that of Hong Kong. Hong Kongs GDP per capita is currently one of the highest in the world, even higher than Singapore, Britain, Sweden,France,Italy, etc. Don't believe me?

Take a look: http://www.worldfactsandfigures.com/gdp_country_desc.php

I believe Hong Kong, Macau, and Shenzhen would be come like Greater Los Angeles in the future. Los Angeles County is made up of different city like Long Beach, Hollywood, Pasadena,Downtown LA, Malibu, Monterey Park, etc. Its gonna be one huge region because city will grow, so when they reached the borders they might just merge to certain extent. When Shenzhen reaches the standard of living of Hong Kong, then there won't be the need for a border.

If the fear of the movement of people is more important then anything else (which I presume explains this "requirement" that living standards meet an equilibirum), then I suppose Germany would not have reunited even today?

Just my 0.1 cent. :)

It is not a fear of movement, but an economic disparity issue. Even now there are illegals trying to enter Hong Kong to make money. Of course they have incentives to do so, when average wages in Hong Kong are far higher than Shenzhen or Shanghai.

You 'd better convert these comments. You know who always begs mainland to help the development of HK. Mainland takes away nothing from HK.
Shenzhen by all means will not be part of HK in future. No matter how ugly , dirty and polluted Shenzhen is, it also pays tax to mainland not only get something from mainland.

just to remind you that hong kong is the biggest foreign investor in the mainland china. without investment, china is basically dead.

so the contribution is much greater than just paying tax.

just to remind you that hong kong is the biggest foreign investor in the mainland china. without investment, china is basically dead.

so the contribution is much greater than just paying tax.

As much as I know HK does not pay any taxes to the central government, unless you mean import tax, but even that has been reduced or exempted for a number of commodiites.

You are talking about the investments of HK companies in the mainland as if HK does not have any benifits for doing so.

BTW, the mainland is investing a lot in HK, too.

just to remind you that hong kong is the biggest foreign investor in the mainland china. without investment, china is basically dead.

so the contribution is much greater than just paying tax.

Just try to withdraw investment, let's see who is dead.
Only in CPEA, mainland lost a lot of custom duties in the first quarter of this year. Recently mainland bought HK bonds at very low interst rate. How much does HK earn from mainland's tourists? What do we take away from HK? Only for HK's living water, Guangdong province instead of HK spent millions of money to maintain and test.
I strongly object to opening the border between Shenzhen and HK because mainland's society becomes unsafer. But such racist comments"The Chinese are only pushing this so they can take more away from HK and put it across the border." are shit.

Stop fighting amongst yourselves already! it is exactly this kind of attitude - each shuffling only the snow that is in front of his/her door - that leads to stalemates, finger pointing, and eventually regression.

I think it is pretty obvious that Hong Kong alone does not have enough resources and man power to accomplish a whole lot by itself. Such is the condition for this Pearl of the Orient, even when back in the colonial days. At the same time though, China has much to gain from Hong Kong as well - its ports for import/export (HK is top in the world in this, along with Singapore), its well-established international city image, its financial hub, and its appeal to the Western world as a free market.

While there are several mainland cities that are quickly becoming the hotbed for new businesses and development, like Shanghai and Beijing, Hong Kong is still playing a very important role is providing that bridge between the Western and Eastern civilizations/businesses. However, I can see its role diminishing as the rest of the Mainland big cities catch up with Hong Kong (if they haven't already done so). So the only way to help HK stay competitive is through collaboration and coordination, and certainly not by closing the door and looking down on its neighbors. That being said, I feel a physical merging of HK and SZ is not going to happen, at least not in the near future, due to the differences in political agendas, regulations and policies, currencies, infrastructures, and to an extent the standards of living. Until all these become equal can there be real talk of a physical merging of the two regions. However, this doesn't mean HK and SZ can't cooperate more in business, trading, industry, and even regional urban planning. It can kind of function in a way like the EU, where people are free to travel between borders, do business, etc. while still maintaining the identity and integrity of their own countries. I know some of these are already happening, but the more the better I think. Because in the end, what's good for HK is what's good for SZ and China. Maybe I'm naive in thinking that, but I truly believe that's the appropriate attitude to have when approaching the issue of our Region's future.

I'd love to see Hong Kong and Shenzhen work together for a more urbanized region. Someone pointed out Dallas and Fort Worth here in Texas and it works our perfectly. I think one thing that needs to be done is Hong Kong needs to change traffic patterns to drive on the right side of the road to match the rest of China and the U.S.. There's no need for them to ride on the wrong side of the road.

Shenkong or Hongzen. Funny:hilarious

Hk is place full of crimes, I'm not talking about small pickpocket things, I'M talking about large organized crime organizations. Drugs are exported from there to here in North America, imported from SE Asia. If the border opens, those crime organizations will just escape from that puny little space and destabilize the effort of chinese government. Gangs, mafia, etc. I really don't hope to see SZ and HK merge together, that will only cause more trouble for mainland. Hk couldn't possibly lived without mainland, because HK began as nothing more than a transportational route for goods to enter mainland from other nations. And those people living there just taking this advantage by manipulating real estate, finances. Thats why there is no industry in Hk whatsoever. HK will gradually be replaced, as its purpose to exist gradually fade with the advancement of transportational technology. Once commodities take another route to enter mainland, Hk's land value will drop dramatically and that will cause its economy to callapse.

Hong Kong is not just about infrastructure and transportation links. HK is a services-oriented economy, which cannot be easily replaced. HK companies take advantage of mainland cheap labour for manufacturing, yet they also offer banking, consulting, and managerial services to their mainland counterparts.

Hong Kong is not a major drug trafficking centre. In fact, the most worrisome regions would probably be Afghanistan and the Golden Triangle area around Burma-China-Thailand. There are plenty of crime syndicates that operate across borders throughout Asia. Many already operate in China, so opening up the border won't change things.

Hong Kong is China's single largest investor. The benefits go both ways. China benefits from the income effect, while Hong Kong investors profit. If one goes down, so does the other. If China thrives, so will Hong Kong. We see that right now with the influx of mainland tourists. Many international retailers are setting up shop in both China and Hong Kong, and Disneyland HK will open very soon.

Exactly, HK is heavily based on service sector and thats exatcly why it depends on trade which in turn brings up its real estate. Just like Canada, 70% of our economy is service sector and if we stop trading, we will collapse(actually not that fast, we have natural resources).

I think that combining Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Macau of course can increase the competitiveness against other places. The race track, casinos of Macau and the industrial areas of Shenzhen can push the economy, trading, tourist attraction farther. I think the combination of Hong Kong and Macau would be possible cause the language is same, currency rate is similar (1HKD = 1.03MOP). Many systems of law, education is similar. People's lifestyle, acting, culture is similar too.

In the other hand, although HKD and CNY rate is similar too (1HKD = 1.06139CNY), but CNY is used by other parts of China too, and MOP is just used in Macau. This is a big problem. Unless HK changed to use CNY too...and also the laws, education system, language, culture is different (before I thought that Cantonese was spoken in Canton(guangzhou province), but I don't know why I go to Shenzhen and most people speaks mandarin...I think is because the immigration from the other parts of China that leads to this situation...

Hk is place full of crimes, I'm not talking about small pickpocket things, I'M talking about large organized crime organizations. Drugs are exported from there to here in North America, imported from SE Asia. If the border opens, those crime organizations will just escape from that puny little space and destabilize the effort of chinese government. Gangs, mafia, etc. I really don't hope to see SZ and HK merge together, that will only cause more trouble for mainland. Hk couldn't possibly lived without mainland, because HK began as nothing more than a transportational route for goods to enter mainland from other nations. And those people living there just taking this advantage by manipulating real estate, finances. Thats why there is no industry in Hk whatsoever. HK will gradually be replaced, as its purpose to exist gradually fade with the advancement of transportational technology. Once commodities take another route to enter mainland, Hk's land value will drop dramatically and that will cause its economy to callapse.

HK is not a place of organized crime, Organized crime is almost unheard of. Most huge crimes come from China or Macau and sometimes Taiwan.

Anyways, Hong Kong will not be replaced. Just because other mainland cities are improving doesn't mean everybody will skip HK. Take USA for example. San Francisco,LA,San Diego are all equal in terms of development,and business. Still you won't see LA replacing SF or SD, or like Tokyo replacing Yokohama or Osaka repalcing Kobe, because each city has a purpose, and HK is already the best among services and is currently holding the title "The worlds freest economy"

Shenkong or Hongzen. Funny:hilarious

Ugh!

Should be called "HONG KONG" Shenzhen would just simply integrate into HK and become one of HK's district, like the new territories of HK.

Shenkong or Hongzen. Funny:hilarious

It will definitely sound horrible in Chinese, so does the meaning :)

Shenzen was a fishing village decades ago, look at it now.

And imagine what Shenzen would be like in the future, astronomical perhaps?

but many other cities like guangzhou, zhuhai, shanghai is growing so fast, 2008 Olympic games, 2010 Asia games, international race courses, new industrial zones, new international airport, international ports...etc. Will Hong Kong need to merge Shenzhen to increase the competitiveness?

But i think Hong Kong's most important things to develop now are international tourism destination, international financial centre, that combines most Hong Kong; China and other international companies in the stock market; Hong Kong companies invest in China; keep the international port and airport's export and re-export rate.

Wow, hope it does happen, and by the time it does, I hope Shenzen's crime rate decreases and it will form one mega city, where 5% or more of the world's population will live in!!

Don't forget they are doing the dirty jobs for you guys and HK is living at the expense of the mainland. Many polluting factories behind the border are owned by HK companies.

No. Such polluted air flow back to HK, so how are they doing the dirty jobs for us?

The major point is -- it is legal to produce pollution in China. The chinese govt could have stricten its environmental law. But it didn't, who's to blame?

Just try to withdraw investment, let's see who is dead.
Only in CPEA, mainland lost a lot of custom duties in the first quarter of this year. Recently mainland bought HK bonds at very low interst rate. How much does HK earn from mainland's tourists? What do we take away from HK? Only for HK's living water, Guangdong province instead of HK spent millions of money to maintain and test.
I strongly object to opening the border between Shenzhen and HK because mainland's society becomes unsafer. But such racist comments"The Chinese are only pushing this so they can take more away from HK and put it across the border." are shit.

Don't be silly. The chinese gov't might as well ban all HK-funded factories so that millions and millions of factory workers will lose their job and cause some social unrest in China. Then you can use your favorite PLA to "suppress" opposition.

Custom duties is almost insignificant as HK already moved all its manufacturing base to mainland. Only a few benefit so how do you get the "a lot.."

The mainland tourists can go anywhere they want. It's just that you cannot get out of your country without your country's permission. If they go elsewhere, at least that keeps HK cleaner and maintain certain level of living standard (like queueing).

As for water, HK has been paying $ for more than what it needs for years. Why waste those water when there is a shortage of water everywhere in the mainland? Ask the Guangdong province. HK also invests billions to build facitlities in Guangdong to protect the water source and to maintain certain level of quality.

How is mainland safer? Are you talking about the farm land? If for SZ, there is no way it is safe. Not even safe from poisonous food, let alone the chance of being kidnapped.

Will Hong Kong become part of Guangdong when SAR status is at an end or will the SAR area remain as a separate province?

Don't be silly. The chinese gov't might as well ban all HK-funded factories so that millions and millions of factory workers will lose their job and cause some social unrest in China. Then you can use your favorite PLA to "suppress" opposition..

Leave PLA aside, PLA already seatled in HK, china' s territory. Suppose China would ban all HK-funded factories, China first of all would have withdrawn all investment from HK.After all, mainland China also is the biggest investor in HK ,vice versa.
Custom duties is almost insignificant as HK already moved all its manufacturing base to mainland. Only a few benefit so how do you get the "a lot.."
You underestimate CEPA' s role. check statistics first. After all, CEPA is mainly beneficial to HK.
The mainland tourists can go anywhere they want. It's just that you cannot get out of your country without your country's permission. If they go elsewhere, at least that keeps HK cleaner and maintain certain level of living standard (like queueing).
We can go anywhere including HK. :) If you consider mainland tourists shouldn't come to Hk. then you 'd better suggest HK's travel bureau officials and travel agencies not to do advertisement in mainland China rather than blah, blah here to show how you are superior.
As for water, HK has been paying $ for more than what it needs for years. Why waste those water when there is a shortage of water everywhere in the mainland? Ask the Guangdong province. HK also invests billions to build facitlities in Guangdong to protect the water source and to maintain certain level of quality.).
Undoubtly, HK also imposed efforts in water sources. but after all, SZ first supplies HK as priority though mainland is short of water. where can HK get living water with plenty of money handy?

How is mainland safer? Are you talking about the farm land? If for SZ, there is no way it is safe. Not even safe from poisonous food, let alone the chance of being kidnapped.).
Go back to check what i have said before you say something.
Mainland isn't safer than before 1979 when mainland was an isolated poor country. you know HK 's the most notorious kidnapper and gang was arrested and executed in mainland a few years ago.

If HK and mainland are merged, there are some benefits for both mainlanders and HKers.

For the mainlanders:

1) If you want to criticize the government or protest against the government, you go to HK.

2) If you want to see a banned movie (by means of Beijing's censorship, or like they dont show any new movie for the whole month just to support a mainland production) in cinema rather than those cheap pirated copies, you go to HK.

3) If you want to practice certain kind of religion like FLG or go to some churches that are totally legit but are not approved by the government, you go to HK.

4). If you want to have more than one child, which is against the government's policy, you go to HK.

5) Millions and millions kind of fake product and food can be distributed locally to HK. Revenue increases.

For the HKers:

1) The sex industry will grow at a higher rate than right now due to integration of the supply chain.

2) All those criminals who go to HK and pretend to commit a crime just to be jailed and to receive medical care in HK will not be granted such hospitality. They will be trialed in mainland instead.

3). Crime rate will decrease. All mainland criminals will be trialed in mainland where the law is less humane and the prisons offers less "benefit".

4). The social welfare system of the HK government will be greatly relieved as the notion of immigrants from china does not exist.

You underestimate CEPA' s role. check statistics first. After all, CEPA is mainly beneficial to HK.





If CEPA is so obviously beneficial don't you think I would have said something different? I would be glad if you can show me some statistics (real number, not those fake words on paper quoted from People's Daily).

If CEPA is so obviously beneficial don't you think I would have said something different? I would be glad if you can show me some statistics (real number, not those fake words on paper quoted from People's Daily).
Since You said something different and don't trust faked words I provide, may you post some statistics from HK's media?

Ok, Now , I post CEPA news from HK'S MEDIA.

20 October, 2003

CEPA and Opportunities for Hong Kong Content provided by:

Introduction
Following the signing of the main parts of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) on 29th June 2003, Hong Kong and the Mainland signed the six Annexes to the main text of the Arrangement on 29th September 2003, setting out the implementation details. To be implemented from 1st January 2004, the Arrangement is to ensure Hong Kong will be "economically interlocked" with the Mainland and that smaller Hong Kong companies will benefit from the opening-up and liberalisation on the Mainland beyond China's commitments in its WTO accession. With CEPA, 90% of Hong Kong domestic exports to the Mainland can enjoy zero tariffs. Also, CEPA opens up 18 service industries to Hong Kong companies. More important, CEPA provides long-term opportunities for Hong Kong people to establish business or work on the Mainland.

CEPA - A Special Arrangement Abiding by International Practices

CEPA is the first bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for both the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong. It abides fully by the WTO's requirements on FTAs. While the Agreement eliminates substantial trade and investment barriers between Hong Kong and the Chinese Mainland, it does not raise any obstacles for other economies' access to the two markets. Consistent with the provision of the General Agreement of Trade in Services (GATS), companies in Hong Kong with substantive activity are qualified as Hong Kong companies for the entitlement of the benefits under CEPA.


Opportunities in Trade in Goods

Starting from 1st January 2004, 273 types of products made in Hong Kong can be exported to the Mainland free of tariff. This, together with China's commitments upon accession to the WTO, will allow about 90% of Hong Kong domestic exports to the Mainland to enjoy zero tariffs. The annual savings in tariffs are estimated to be HK$750 million. Moreover, zero tariffs will also be applied latest by January 2006 upon applications by manufacturers in Hong Kong to other products made in Hong Kong for accessing the Mainland market.
A product is qualified as "made in Hong Kong" if it fulfills the rules of origin under CEPA. For 70% of the 273 types of products covered in the initial phase for tariff-free importation, Hong Kong's existing origin rules using the "specific manufacturing process" criterion will be adopted as the CEPA origin rules. For the rest, either the "change in tariff heading" approach or the "30% value-added" requirement will be used. The 30% value-added rule compares favourably with other free trade areas' thresholds, which range from 40% to 60%.

Apart from zero tariffs enjoyed by products made in Hong Kong, products made by Hong Kong and/or traded by Hong Kong will also benefit from CEPA in other ways. Upon China's WTO accession, many Hong Kong manufacturers with production on the Mainland would like to develop China as their domestic market. However, their market penetration efforts have been somewhat hindered by the underdeveloped distribution system on the Mainland. Many hazards in developing the China market such as payment problems and intellectual property rights protection now facing Hong Kong manufacturers can hopefully be alleviated as more Hong Kong players will be allowed to engage in distribution business on the Mainland under CEPA.

The immediate benefit of the trade in goods is the saving in tariffs, thus increasing the price competitiveness of Hong Kong's domestic exports of consumer products into the Mainland. Industries that are more likely to be benefited include fashion, jewellery and high-end watches.

A longer-term effect of the zero-tariff agreement is the potential for attracting more high value-added manufacturing activities to be located in Hong Kong, and promoting development of brand products made in Hong Kong to emerging middle-class consumers on the Mainland.

Capitalising on the advantage of Hong Kong in intellectual property rights protection, free trade and investment environment, and reputation in cosmopolitan design, Hong Kong is in a good position to develop high intellectual property (IP) value industries that target the Mainland market.

For high-end products such as designers' clothing and fashion accessories, and industries that involve proprietary technology (since the IP input accounts for a much larger share than labour and other inputs in the total cost structure), production in Hong Kong may still be justifiable. However, since the high IP value industries are knowledge-based and would not be massive in scale, the effect of job creation in Hong Kong, especially for unskilled workers, would only be moderate.


Opportunities in Trade in Services

CEPA provisions on market access cover a total of 18 service industries. These include: management consulting, convention and exhibition, advertising, accounting, construction and real estate, medical and dental, distribution, logistics, freight forwarding, storage and warehousing, transport, tourism, audio-visual, legal, banking, securities, insurance, and value-added telecommunications services.

To be entitled to the benefits of CEPA, a service company, regardless of the nationality of its investors or shareholders, must have substantive business activity in Hong Kong by fulfilling the following criteria:



(1) the company must be incorporated under the laws of Hong Kong;
(2) the company must be liable to pay profits tax in Hong Kong;
(3) the company must employ in Hong Kong 50% or more of its total staff.

In addition, companies in different service industries have to meet different extra criteria to ensure that they have been engaging in substantive business operations in such an industry for a minimum period (usually three to five years) in Hong Kong. Although the exact requirements for a company to be qualified vary by industries, the assessment will be on a non-discriminatory and objective basis. Foreign companies can be regarded as a "Hong Kong company" one year after acquiring majority shares in a Hong Kong company through merger or acquisition.

Although the liberalisation measures vary from industry to industry, China has taken into account the special niche of Hong Kong as CEPA commitments go beyond the country's WTO accession protocol, for example, the opening-up of exhibition business to Hong Kong companies.

Besides the exhibition industry, Hong Kong's niche in the audio-visual industry is well recognised. With the quota free access to the Mainland of Chinese language films produced in Hong Kong and the relaxation on the co-production requirements, CEPA paves the way for the recovery of Hong Kong's film industry by creating great potential in the Mainland market. More important, it provides a very good avenue for Hong Kong to post itself as a modern and dynamic metropolis before Mainland's consumers.

The framework of CEPA is intentionally designed to help smaller companies, whether they be indigenous or foreign-owned, in Hong Kong. Under China's WTO protocol, the thresholds of entry to the Mainland's service sector are too high for Hong Kong companies in most service industries. CEPA lowers the thresholds for Hong Kong companies, allowing them an "effective" market access to the Mainland's service sector. Lowering the thresholds for Hong Kong banks to expand on the Mainland and allowing Hong Kong law firms to share offices with their Mainland counterparts are significant measures to increase the feasibility of Hong Kong service providers to do business on the Mainland.
Not only Hong Kong products or Hong Kong companies but also Hong Kong professionals and residents will benefit from CEPA. Hong Kong professionals in the securities and insurance industries can apply to practise on the Mainland and Hong Kong permanent residents with Chinese citizenship are permitted to sit the legal qualifying examination on the Mainland. Moreover, Hong Kong permanent residents with Chinese citizenship are formally permitted to engage in retail activity in Guangdong. All this suggests that in future more Hong Kong people are likely to seek employment and business opportunities on the Mainland.


Hong Kong as a Financial Centre and Its Special Relations with the Pearl River Delta

CEPA will strengthen Hong Kong's role as an international financial centre for China and the region. Under CEPA, the Mainland supports Chinese banks in re-locating their international treasury and foreign exchange trading centres to Hong Kong. They are also encouraged to expand their banking business in Hong Kong through acquisition. In the process of financial reform on the Mainland, the financial intermediaries in Hong Kong will be fully utilised.

Given the proximity of Hong Kong to the Pearl River Delta (PRD), CEPA has a special meaning to the closer co-operation of the two places. With CEPA, the PRD will continue to grow from strength to strength as the world's manufacturing centre, fully supported by the business services provided by Hong Kong companies. Waiving Hong Kong lawyers' residency requirements for operating in the PRD is just an example of the special convenience provided by CEPA to enhance the partnership of the Greater PRD.


Overall Impact on Hong Kong

CEPA will leverage on the institutional strengths of Hong Kong and the huge market potential on the Mainland under the "one country, two systems" principle for revitalising the Hong Kong economy and modernisation of the Chinese Mainland. Given the eased market access to the Mainland and the stringent protection of intellectual property rights in Hong Kong, the city will be the first choice to supply products and services with "high content of intellectual property" for the Mainland market. Creativity will be the key determinant for Hong Kong people and companies to succeed on the Mainland while developing into a "knowledge-intensive" service hub is the future of this territory.

CEPA indeed creates the "environment" for Hong Kong products, Hong Kong companies (particularly medium-sized companies), Hong Kong professionals and residents to have an "effective" access to the Mainland. It does not provide them with "privileges" to enjoy exclusive rights in the Mainland market. They have to face intensifying competition in this large market from both local suppliers as well as multinational players. As China will continue to open up on schedule in accordance with its WTO commitments, the window of first mover advantage for Hong Kong players is brief.

The impact of CEPA on the service sector is likely to be greater than that on the manufacturing sector. This is particularly true when services, accounting for only 34% of China's GDP, have become a constraint on the country's economic development. Contributing 87% to the domestic economy, services are well developed in Hong Kong and will be able to contribute more to the modernisation of the Mainland under CEPA. Although the immediate benefit of CEPA for industrial employment in Hong Kong may only be moderate, much more future employment opportunities in the service sector will be created across the boundary. The overall effect on total employment could be significant.

Immediate trade and employment creation is, of course, important to Hong Kong, but the long term effect of CEPA is much more substantial. Indeed, the pace of Hong Kong's economic restructuring will accelerate under CEPA. While the impact will evolve over time, it is likely to be reflected more in Hong Kong's GNP than in its GDP. The opportunities arising from CEPA are not limited to activities within the HKSAR but go much farther into the Mainland.
http://www.tdctrade.com/econforum/tdc/tdc031002.htm

Since You said something different and don't trust faked words I provide, may you post some statistics from HK's media?

Ok, Now , I post CEPA news from HK'S MEDIA.



Well, thanks for your response.

But what you have posted is not statistics but merely a leaflet type material which is published by the HKSAR Government (TDC), The content of this article has been well known by all HKers months ago and this article is exactly what I meant by "big words" on "paper". The numbers provided in this article are only "suggested" statistics (hence not statistics!)

The annual tariffs savings as mentioned in the article (and as suggested by you) is only $750M which is trivial. The HKSAR just spent $1B on a silly harbourfest last year.

It has been a known fact that the current CEPA is not perceived as "helpful" in HK. Only government officials will "CEPA" this and "CEPA" that. A lot of people in different sectors has expressed their opinion that the current CEPA is realistically not as beneficial as suggested on paper. Some dismiss CEPA completely. That is, if you keep reading People's Daily, there is nothing I can do. That's why I am amazed by you saying how CEPA "benefit" HK a great deal/

All I want is statistics, "after-the-fact" "real" statistics, not projected.

Well, thanks for your response.

But what you have posted is not statistics but merely a leaflet type material which is published by the HKSAR Government (TDC), The content of this article has been well known by all HKers months ago and this article is exactly what I meant by "big words" on "paper". The numbers provided in this article are only "suggested" statistics (hence not statistics!)

The annual tariffs savings as mentioned in the article (and as suggested by you) is only
It has been a known fact that the current CEPA is not perceived as "helpful" in HK. Only government officials will "CEPA" this and "CEPA" that. A lot of people in different sectors has expressed their opinion that the current CEPA is realistically not as beneficial as suggested on paper. Some dismiss CEPA completely. That is, if you keep reading People's Daily, there is nothing I can do. That's why I am amazed by you saying how CEPA "benefit" HK a great deal/

All I want is statistics, "after-the-fact" "real" statistics, not projected.
$750M saved for HK and $1B on a silly harbourfest also is for HK. but overall, CEPA doesn't help mainland to save $750million. Also all benefits HK get are showed by that official website. CEPA merely isn't useful for mainland China. As you mentioned peopledaily shouldn't be trusted, How would I trust oppinions you got from some people instead of statististics you show here?

Some benefits from CEPA reflect on macroeconomy. Anyhow, HK's government economy report clearly showes how CEPA attributes to economy.
http://www.hongkong.org/press/ny_031004.htm
Factors contributing to Hong Kong's economic growth in 2004 include: the ongoing implementation of the Mainland/Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement, increased tourist arrivals from the Mainland and solid growth in external trade, including robust performance of offshore trade and professional services exports.

Muchbetter,

you don't have to argue with people like tung9. They are lost cases. Hongkong is part of China and will remain so even after people like tung9 left this world.

Well, he has the choice to co-operate with his compatriots to build a better future for all or live in his egotistical phantasy of 'Hongkong the best - f*ck the rest'.

I think there are benefits for Hong Kong, lower tax for hong kong products, investments, 0 tariffs..etc. But I don't think it can accelerate Hong Kong's economy so much. Instead many people would have to go to work in the mainland, those people would have to live in mainland and come back to hk maybe once a week, so Hong Kong shops would lost some profit because the capital has moved to mainland. Therefore I think Hong Kong's economy wouldn't accelerate much, but places in mainland would accelerate a lot.

Therefore I think just big companies have benefit, can make a big profit in the CEPA and 9 + 2. But middle classes or poor people like me, will just become a bigger and bigger gap...And workers would be a lot more busy, have to go to mainland, can't spend time with the family, can't even go for a little trip in the summer holiday...etc.

In another way, the middle classes and the poor in the mainland would can have a better life. Therefore in many ways mainland would gain a big big benefit then Hong Kong.

The CEPA agreement will not stop the flight of labour-intensive industries to China. However, it opens up a lot of new opportunities for Hong Kongers, particularly in the higher-end services sector. Many Hong Kong professionals are now pondering moving to the mainland to work as consultants, managers, and other high-end jobs. That's actually a very good thing. It adds to Hong Kong's role in the Chinese economy.

The key is to get a good education to ascend to the high-end jobs. Obviously the lower classes have little hope to benefit from CEPA. The income gap will only widen, not narrow, in a capitalistic society. The same thing is actually happening in the mainland. Before the economic reforms, everyone was poor. The income gap was small. Now, most are still poor but slightly better off while there are a lot more very rich people. The masses have stuck on the bottom end while a few were pulled to the sky.

Think further into the future: HK-Macau-Shenzen could one day merge with Guangzhou!

Think further into the future: HK-Macau-Shenzen could one day merge with Guangzhou!
Dont you think thats just a little too far?

About 90 miles, but the conurbations could one day become big enough to merge.

$750M saved for HK and $1B on a silly harbourfest also is for HK. but overall, CEPA doesn't help mainland to save $750million. Also all benefits HK get are showed by that official website. CEPA merely isn't useful for mainland China. As you mentioned peopledaily shouldn't be trusted, How would I trust oppinions you got from some people instead of statististics you show here?



OK. Those opinions I don't make up by myself but those are from survey/interview published in newspaper/TV in HK. Annual GDP for HK is USD $200+B so is it a big deal for a savings of less than HKD $1B ?

The site you quoted is again from the HKSAR government and is nothing but adevertisement (sure it has all the benefits, remember the cyberport project?). The article did mention CEPA but not in details, just mentioning (factors include... LOL)

Anyway I did not say that CEPA is not beneficial at all to HK. But it is definitely not HK:1-CN:0 or China actually lose for the gain of HK! The pro-beijing pro-government media and those patriotic types would like you to beleive something like that. But that's not the case. CEPA is more or less a shortcut for HK to gain relatively more access to the mainland market (as compared to other developed countries, and b4 the WTO status). So how would China not benefied from this? (by way of inward investment)

So, to say that "CEPA is not useful for China" is total nonsense. Why would the CCP do something stupid like that. It must be mutual (that's what I call trade).

OK. Those opinions I don't make up by myself but those are from survey/interview published in newspaper/TV in HK. The source you quoted is again from the HKSAR government. The article did just mention CEPA but not in details (ie no causal relationship etc).

Anyway I did not say that CEPA is not beneficial at all to HK. But it is definitely not HK:1-CN:0 or China actually lose for the gain of HK! The pro-beijing pro-government and those patriotic types would like you to beleive something like that. But that's not the case. CEPA is more or less a shortcut for HK to gain relatively more access to the mainland market (as compared to other developed countries, and b4 the WTO status). So how would China not benefied from this? (by way of inward investment)

So, to say that China actually lose for the gain of HK is totally nonsese. Why would the CCP do something so stupid. It must be mutual (that's what I call trade). As for how it benefits HK or China it is too early to say so I think I wont discuss this topics unless more info is out.
I don't argue with you any more. Your viewpoint is a little bit like an old ma'am ‘s who was selling newspapers on the corner of Tongluowan(铜锣湾）when last time I went to HK . Bye.

muchbetter,

It is naive to think that CEPA will only benefit HK but not China. It benefits both; in fact it benefits China more than HK.

As for the merge, it won't happen today, tomorrow or anytime in the near future; unless the commie chinese government breaks down or suddenly HK citizens regard freedom as worthy as a penny.

Oh but I am afraid if merged, problems like the freedom of speech, corruptions, the difference of the thinkings of two different citizens, one with democracy, liberalism; one with nationalism, socialism, freedom of publishing, freedom of religion...etc etc. How do these things solved? Unless the Chinese government break, if not I think HK will not merge with shenzhen, or Dongguan or Guangzhou.

But for CEPA, I also agree j0e2 that it benefits China more than HK. Because CEPA benefits most to the higher class, like companies, riches, to invest, do business in mainland. But have nothing do to the lower classes, what they hope is that the higher class's company gets bigger and bigger and hire some lower classes, so they can have job. But usually these people are proffesionals, with specific skills, not workers. So what I say is in a class interest point of view, CEPA doesn't have much benefit to the lower classes. And due to this, the balance of class forces would be unstable, and might leeds to lass polarization. Nowadays already can see, maybe your house, the food you eat, the phone you are using, the internet, many things around you maybe are provided by the lees family, because of monopolization. But of course this is just my foolish suggestion~