Property Trends 2011 [Archive] - Page 4

Minority

March 22nd, 2011, 05:16 AM

Business Times - 22 Mar 2011

Japan nuclear accident could boost demand for natural gas

Indonesia, Australia coal seam gas projects set to gain

By VEN SREENIVASAN

(SINGAPORE) Natural gas could be the biggest beneficiaries if the world in general, and Japan in particular, turn away from nuclear energy in the wake of the events in Japan, according to Frost & Sullivan.

In a new report released yesterday, F&S noted that Japan is already the world's biggest importer of LNG and sources almost 70 per cent of its supply from Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

'Even before the Japan disaster, natural gas prices were forecast to rise to US$5 to US$6 MMBTU by 2012 due to increasing demand,' noted the report's authors, Ravi Krishnaswamy and Subramanya Bettadapura.

'With the recent events driving up demand even higher, we could see natural gas surpassing those figures in 2012.'

The report noted that diversion of gas supplies from regular customers in Europe to Japan would drive up gas prices in Europe.

'Qatar for example, is set to supply the extra demand for LNG from Japan giving anxious moments to customers in Europe who now will not have a cushion in case demand increases. Qatar supplied around 12 per cent of Japan's total LNG imports in 2009. Supply of LNG from Qatar to Japan is set to double in 2012 compared to 2009 levels to offset the loss of nuclear power.'

Apart from conventional sources of gas, F&S also sees demand for unconventional sources such as coal seam gas (CSG) and shale gas emerging to the fore.

'The coal seam gas projects in Indonesia and Australia would probably get the much needed shot in the arm after the Japan incidents,' Messrs Krishnaswamy and Bettadapura wrote. 'The coal seam gas industry has also got some bad press regarding their environmental impact.'

But they added that the adverse impact of these industries on the community paled in comparison to the immediate impact that a nuclear power disaster can have.

'Most of the CSG to LNG projects in Australia are now much more likely to see the light of the day.'

All this comes as Japan continues to struggle to control the nuclear fallout from its Fukushima nuclear reactors, which were damaged by the massive earthquake and tsunami of March 11.

The event has prompted many countries, including China, Switzerland and Germany, to re-evaluate their nuclear energy policies and facilities.

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

ayanami

March 22nd, 2011, 05:56 AM

Something very interesting. For info sharing..

http://www.thoriumsingapore.com/

Have we found the answer to the future??

Cnud, thanks for sharing this. I have learn something from this forum today. :)

stingraytan

March 22nd, 2011, 06:59 AM

cant open the link?

AK47

March 22nd, 2011, 09:23 AM

Anyone invest in Geylang?

The Waterina up so much from 12 months ago. Much better return than CBD projects.

cnud

March 22nd, 2011, 11:27 AM

Cnud, thanks for sharing this. I have learn something from this forum today. :)

Pleasure..

I was shocked to know that the reason the safer way was not chosen is because of intent for war..

devilplate

March 22nd, 2011, 01:52 PM

Pleasure..

I was shocked to know that the reason the safer way was not chosen is because of intent for war..

very interesting:cheers:

nuclear weapons:evil:

devilplate

March 22nd, 2011, 02:12 PM

Anyone invest in Geylang?

The Waterina up so much from 12 months ago. Much better return than CBD projects.

sort of isolated event? this is at the end of 'action':lol:
i remember mid 09 3bedder there can get around 700psf....now probably 950psf to 1kpsf....about 40%+ increase from previous trough

icon mid 09 about 1200-1250psf......now about 18xxpsf...about 40-50%

clift low flr studios ard 1200psf in mid 09 and now about 2kpsf....60%+

cannot say better den CBD i tink.....but decent enuff:):cheers:

shctaw

March 23rd, 2011, 02:29 AM

Anyone invest in Geylang?

The Waterina up so much from 12 months ago. Much better return than CBD projects.

I own 2 near Geylang. (Park Court) but sold 1 recently.

Bought at $315k & $321k in 2004-5. (3 bedroom. Freehold. :cheers:)

shctaw

March 23rd, 2011, 02:34 AM

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7406937111575905756#

Video. Crash course.

Hope some Japanese watch this...1-2 yr ago.

shctaw

March 23rd, 2011, 10:31 PM

Portuguese Government Rejects Austerity Plan, Government Collapses,,,,,,,

Here we go again; same old shit again......

Will the new government choose the Iceland way or the Ireland way?

amk8

March 24th, 2011, 04:10 AM

P is expected to fail, either way.
I and S are far more critical. although markets seem to think they will survive.

In any case EUR had gone up too high for no real reason. (rate hike rhetoric ?). it's time to find an excuse to go down

shctaw

March 24th, 2011, 04:23 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_3T-Af57Pg&feature=related

This clip will show how Debt work.

If I owe $1m and I am bankrupt; I cannot loan you $1.

Countries can create unlimited debt.

US owe $14Trillion and still can loan money to bailout other.

What a joke.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOzR3UAyXao&feature=related

Minority

March 25th, 2011, 11:16 AM

Published March 25, 2011

Portugal may need 70b euro bailout

Country closer to financial brink as rates on 10-year bonds soar to record 7.71%

(LISBON) Portugal's financial collapse appeared inevitable yesterday, as markets took the government's resignation as proof the debt-heavy country will lose its year-long battle to avoid an international bailout.

Investors pushed the interest rate on Portugal's 10-year bonds to a euro-era record of 7.71 per cent - a level that is unsustainable and could force the country to ask for a rescue like Greece and Ireland did last year.

The government quit late Wednesday after opposition parties rejected its latest debt-reduction plan, generating a new bout of market jitters over the country's future.

'It's pretty inevitable' that Portugal will need a rescue, said Jacques Cailloux, a London-based economist at RBS.

It is unclear how soon Portugal could take a bailout, as experts say it is unlikely that an interim government will have the constitutional authority to accept a bailout on the country's behalf. Elections would not be possible before the end of May, leaving months of unwelcome - and costly - uncertainty ahead.

A bailout for Portugal may total as much as 70 billion euros (S$125.6 billion), said two European officials with direct knowledge of the matter. The figures are however, preliminary, the officials said.

The upheaval in Portugal was a setback for European leaders who are trying to reassure markets about the soundness of the 17-nation eurozone.

Debt problems also brought down Ireland's government earlier this year after it took a bailout, forcing an election that was won by the main opposition party.

Portugal has already raised taxes and implemented the deepest spending cuts in more than three decades to convince investors it can reduce its budget shortfall. Additional cuts, announced on March 11, prompted a political backlash and failed to persuade investors.

The government has fought to avoid asking its EU partners and the International Monetary Fund for a bailout because the package comes with fiscal conditions that limit a country's ability to set policy and decide its own fate.

However, Barclays Capital said that market pressure was unlikely to ease and 'an EU-IMF programme looks increasingly likely given (the) adverse market funding conditions' for Portugal.

'In the near term, we suspect bond yields will keep pushing higher, if only because uncertainty will prevail,' Barclays Capital said.

The borrowing costs are critical as Portugal faces two major bond redemptions soon.

The outgoing government has said Portugal has enough cash in reserve to meet a 4.5 billion euro repayment next month, but a similar sum due in June could be harder to find - perhaps marking the time for a financial aid request.

Markets may take heart from the commitment of Portugal's main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party, to austerity measures and fiscal restraint. The Social Democrats have recently been ahead in opinion polls. -- AP, Bloomberg

shctaw

March 25th, 2011, 03:33 PM

Spain is 7 times the debt of Portugal.

The ticking sound may be a time bomb rather than a Rolex watch.

shctaw

March 25th, 2011, 03:49 PM

http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/watch/id/601007/n/China-s-Ghost-Cities

China Ghost Cities-64 million empty apartments.

What a scary title...

shctaw

March 26th, 2011, 02:05 AM

Another black swan...

Canada Government Collapse.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704517404576222862669939914.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

stingraytan

March 26th, 2011, 03:09 PM

my dear guru.... where to hide (park) admist all these?

shctaw

March 27th, 2011, 04:07 AM

my dear guru.... where to hide (park) admist all these?

http://www.precious-metal.org/images/precious-metals-investments.jpg

stingraytan

March 27th, 2011, 08:40 AM

http://www.precious-metal.org/images/precious-metals-investments.jpg

:banana::banana::banana:

sigh.. exited already....

thanks bro! btw did u see the pm i sent u?

sdoper

March 27th, 2011, 04:26 PM

Hi shctaw
is it too high to go into metals now?

LittlePig

March 28th, 2011, 02:49 AM

another 6.5 aftershock off Northeast coast of Japan and tsunami hit Miyagi perfecture...

stingraytan

March 28th, 2011, 06:01 AM

tsunami warning lifted.

cnud

March 28th, 2011, 10:40 AM

Some experts say MM units are good for the aging population.. What do the experts here think?

devilplate

March 28th, 2011, 12:34 PM

Some experts say MM units are good for the aging population.. What do the experts here think?

isnt it abit too late to enter the MM segment now?:)

ahlipp

March 28th, 2011, 04:25 PM

Some experts say MM units are good for the aging population.. What do the experts here think?

i think yonger S'poreans will get more & more accustom to small units over time. Ppl of my parents generation look at MM's size as unliveable.

i have been to NS, stayed in a hostel, stayed in hotel rooms more than half the time, i will not reject MMs. However, buying MM for investment is a different story altogether.

The thing abt say a 300+ sqft MM is it's price... not really it's size...important to compliment such a size is definitely it's location and very important the facilities.

i tink small and cosy can still sell.

Have been looking at Esapada... range from 300+ to 500+sqft studio, generally well thought out project. Feel free to commend

Minority

March 28th, 2011, 05:00 PM

its for the rich aging population

stingraytan

March 29th, 2011, 06:55 AM

isnt late a relative term? ;p

not an expert, and definately not qualified.
humble views are:
government flats aside, houses that are bigger than 2 bedders and smaller than a huge landed house which can house a few generations are only targetted at a relative small demographic. eg: young families that are possibly in the higher speed ring of the rat race.
young working couples without children who prefer better lifestyle need no more than a 2 bedder. In fact, a 1 bedder suits most expat lifestyles. and reduce the need for a maid. less dependancy on foreign workers according to our ruling party.
silver hair generation normally have children who falls into the above demographic.
old retirees dont need too much space other then the occasional new year/christmas gathering for 3-4 generations, and sadly, a 3-5 bedder wouldnt fit as well.
singles have even less of a need for bigger units.

communal areas should be big, friendly, and widely available. but for practical living, the question we should ask should be why the need for 3-4 bedders vs why not smaller individual units. i for one will prefer to own 3 one bedders / MMs in a row for my parents, siblings and myself to stay vs one big communal house. thats what the condo facilities is for isnt it? hehehehe.. but seriously, thats just my personal views. from a kampong person living in a farm.

devilplate

March 29th, 2011, 07:59 AM

ahlipp

March 29th, 2011, 11:46 AM

den dual key will be good.....lower psf and own 2 separate units

dual keys... try flamingo valley... *if cemetry factor is not issue*

Cafe Bloc

March 29th, 2011, 04:22 PM

i think yonger S'poreans will get more & more accustom to small units over time. Ppl of my parents generation look at MM's size as unliveable.
.
.
.
Have been looking at Esapada... range from 300+ to 500+sqft studio, generally well thought out project. Feel free to commend

st thomas walk area has so many new development, and all high rise, blocking one another views, the small one lane dual carriage st thomas walk road, likely to cause heavy traffic during peak hour.

and the price, crazy lah, saw people asking 2,5kpsf! how much rental can you ask for the MM unit there? there is so many units in that units, old one included, i think you will not be able to ask for high price.

Minority

March 31st, 2011, 10:42 AM

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2011-03-31/krforeign.jpg

Business Times - 31 Mar 2011

Bungalow-buying foreigners throng to a new address

Their numbers have shot up in Sentosa Cove but fallen in other prized locations because of PR factor

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) They are buying fewer bungalows in other prized locations in the rest of the city - but more at Sentosa Cove.

Foreigners (including Singapore permanent residents) have seen their share of bungalow purchases in Districts 10, 11 and 21 - home to many Good Class Bungalow areas - fall last year from the preceding year.

In absolute numbers too the number of detached houses bought by foreigners in these three districts in the past couple of years was generally much smaller than in 2006/2007 - the peak years of foreign buying of Singapore property.

However, in District 4 (which includes Sentosa Cove), both the percentage share of bungalows bought by foreigners as well as the absolute number of bungalows they purchased scaled fresh highs last year, according to a caveats analysis of bungalow transactions by CB Richard Ellis.

Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng attributes the divergent trends in foreign buying of upmarket bungalows on mainland Singapore versus Sentosa Cove to the fact that fewer were granted PR status last year compared with 2009.

Last year, the government granted only 29,265 permanent resident passes, fewer than half of the 59,460 passes given out the year before. This number was the lowest PR intake in at least the last five years.

'One of the criteria for a foreigner to be granted approval to buy a landed home on mainland Singapore is that he or she has to be a Singapore PR (making adequate contribution to Singapore's economy). And even those who are PRs may have faced stricter criteria in getting approval to buy landed homes last year,' suggests Mr Tan.

'On the other hand, for Sentosa Cove a foreigner does not have to be a PR to get approval to own a landed home. So it's easier for foreigners to buy bungalows there.'

A spokesperson for Singapore Land Authority said: 'The government has been and will continue to be strict in granting approval for non-Singaporeans to purchase landed residential properties in Singapore. We assess very carefully the merits of each application. Permanent Residents today own less than 4 per cent of landed residential properties in Singapore. We intend to continue with the strict approach we have taken.'

'The number of applications received (from non-Singaporeans to buy landed homes) generally reflects the prevailing property market sentiment and is not reflective of the number of (landed) properties eventually bought by non-Singaporeans as some may not proceed further to purchase the property after getting approval.'

According to Newsman Realty managing director KH Tan, in the past, the SLA's Land Dealings (Approval) Unit had in some instances allowed PRs to buy GCBs with land areas slightly larger than the 15,000 sq ft maximum size set for foreigners buying landed homes. 'However, since late-2009, LDAU has turned down applications by PRs seeking to buy bungalows with over 15,000 sq ft in land area,' he said.

Most GCBs would be in this category and this could account for the decline in foreigners' share of bungalow purchases in Districts 10, 11 and 21.

He also said that he has come across some PR clients from the West who were previously looking at buying a GCB in Singapore but last year decided there was more value in overseas property markets like New York and London.

On the other hand, at Sentosa Cove, foreign buying continued to strengthen because it is the only place in Singapore where foreigners who are not PRs may own a landed home. And cash-rich mainland Chinese prepared to pay the high asking prices are fuelling foreign buying, says Mr Tan.

CBRE's analysis of URA Realis caveats data shows that the percentage of bungalows in District 4 (including Sentosa Cove) bought by foreigners swelled to a record 49.3 per cent last year - from 37.3 per cent in 2009. The number of such homes they purchased also surged from 9 in 2006 and 23 in 2007 to 33 last year.

District 10 - which includes GCB areas like Nassim Road, Cluny Park, Chatsworth Park, Queen Astrid Park and Leedon Park - saw the percentage of bungalows picked up by foreigners fall from 13.3 per cent in 2009 to 10.4 per cent in 2010. In absolute numbers, the number of bungalows foreigners have bought in this district has declined from 25 in 2006 and 20 in 2007 to 15 in 2009 and 14 in 2010.

It was a similar trend in District 11 - which covers GCB areas like Swiss Club Road, Raffles Park, Eng Neo Avenue, Camden Park, Chee Hoon Avenue and Caldecott Hill Estate. The foreign buying share slipped from 4.7 per cent in 2009 to 3.9 per cent in 2010; it used to be 18.5 per cent in 2006. The number of foreign buyers has also dwindled from 17 in 2006 and 16 in 2007 to 3 each in 2009 and 2010.

Over in District 21 - home to GCB areas like King Albert Park, Kilburn Estate and Binjai Park - the number of foreigners acquiring bungalows has slid from eight in 2006 to three each in 2009 and 2010. Foreigners made up 10 per cent of bungalow buyers last year, down from 11.5 per cent in 2009 and 17.8 per cent back in 2006.

Foreigners need LDAU's approval before they can own landed property in Singapore. On mainland Singapore, the main criteria are that they are Singapore PRs and that they make an adequate economic contribution. Typically it takes LDAU about four weeks to process an application.

Foreigners buying landed homes on Sentosa Cove have traditionally enjoyed a 48-hour expedited approval channel from LDAU for their applications. While this is still available, SLA said: 'Some applications may require more time, especially where more information is needed for assessment.'

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

love laguna

April 2nd, 2011, 04:39 AM

Oops, it is true that there is no free data from Streetsine?

tigersee

April 2nd, 2011, 09:11 AM

Oops, it is true that there is no free data from Streetsine?

Last time they show free data, including unit number.... now no more ....sianz....

JSVM

April 2nd, 2011, 09:42 AM

You could pay $400 + for an account and have full access to all the information...

SonofaDude

April 2nd, 2011, 02:10 PM

Hi everyone,

Skyscrapercity is now available for the iPhone, iPad and Android platforms.

Search for 'Skyscrapercity' on the app stores and download for free.

Thank you!

LittlePig

April 2nd, 2011, 03:19 PM

I'm using the iPhone app now... :)

SonofaDude

April 3rd, 2011, 03:35 AM

I'm using the iPhone app now... :)

Thanks!! Hope you like the feel. :)

SuperMax

April 3rd, 2011, 08:27 AM

went to Devonshire Residence launching on Saturday,Hutton said more than 70% sold.Psf above 2500,mostly about 500sq ft.

tigersee

April 3rd, 2011, 01:13 PM

Hi everyone,

Skyscrapercity is now available for the iPhone, iPad and Android platforms.

Search for 'Skyscrapercity' on the app stores and download for free.

Thank you!

Wow... Thks. This apps is cool!!

Minority

April 3rd, 2011, 02:37 PM

Great app!

ahlipp

April 3rd, 2011, 04:24 PM

st thomas walk area has so many new development, and all high rise, blocking one another views, the small one lane dual carriage st thomas walk road, likely to cause heavy traffic during peak hour.

and the price, crazy lah, saw people asking 2,5kpsf! how much rental can you ask for the MM unit there? there is so many units in that units, old one included, i think you will not be able to ask for high price.

i have no experience on MM units, say bigger studio 500+sqft wif "gd location" fetch around $3.8K to $4.2K in today's rental market. MM at 300+ sqft i reckon can still fetch ard $2.8K - 3K provided the project as a whole has good facilities, gd location, if u proportion the rental income and price quantum in today's market, the rental yield shld be quite close MM vs. bigger studio.

Yes, that area (Devonshire / Killiney / St. Thomas) in time to come will have quite a handful of small size units... however, that is also a nice area... though i dont advocate to buy now when everything is at all time high... but Espada is definitely worth considering in better timings

devilplate

April 3rd, 2011, 04:51 PM

But espada layout looks terrible

Minority

April 3rd, 2011, 05:17 PM

But espada layout looks terrible

agree so many pillars.... and so many balcony and bay windows!

SO143

April 3rd, 2011, 06:08 PM

Hi everyone,

Skyscrapercity is now available for the iPhone, iPad and Android platforms.

Search for 'Skyscrapercity' on the app stores and download for free.

Thank you!

Thats awesome, how did you create that app? :bow:

lincholia08

April 4th, 2011, 04:20 AM

testing testing. now using the skyscrapercity app on ipad. Its solid. thanks

cnud

April 4th, 2011, 07:23 AM

*wondering aloud "would voting for opposition make property price go down?"

mariya5321

April 4th, 2011, 07:27 AM

The Australian dollar traded 0.3 percent away from an 11-month high against the yen as a report showed a gauge of inflation remained above the central bank's target range before policy makers meet tomorrow. For buying property changes will be happened any time.

Cafe Bloc

April 4th, 2011, 08:23 AM

*wondering aloud "would voting for opposition make property price go down?"

well, go down is opportunity for cash rich potential buyers to grab, so not a bad thing!

then after a few month later, price will go back up, so win-win!

ahlipp

April 4th, 2011, 08:23 AM

agree so many pillars.... and so many balcony and bay windows!

for rental... balcony and bay window is a plus...

pillars, ok... tht point i have missed out, never been to the showflat but interesting point there

devilplate

April 4th, 2011, 11:00 AM

for rental... balcony and bay window is a plus...

pillars, ok... tht point i have missed out, never been to the showflat but interesting point there

which layout of espada u eyeing?

only the 3xxsqft layout got max usable space....but the living room is way too small for such prime locations....mid-high end budget tenants will definitely find it too small.....unless u r only looking at 2.5-3k rental

clift 500sqft 1bedder oredi tenant complaining small....:nuts::lol:

Minority

April 5th, 2011, 04:12 AM

for rental... balcony and bay window is a plus...

pillars, ok... tht point i have missed out, never been to the showflat but interesting point there

well the problem is the living room is so small and they have a pillar in the living room at the corner. the show flat try to fudge the living room and balcony by extending the marble all the way to the balcony. It buyer would be surprise how small the livable space will be upon completion .

ahlipp

April 6th, 2011, 04:19 PM

which layout of espada u eyeing?

only the 3xxsqft layout got max usable space....but the living room is way too small for such prime locations....mid-high end budget tenants will definitely find it too small.....unless u r only looking at 2.5-3k rental

clift 500sqft 1bedder oredi tenant complaining small....:nuts::lol:

i'm considering the 2bedder. well for small quantum studio, the rental is proportional i guess.

sometimes rental factor is partly guess work n luck, take my sis Tribeca unit for example, 517sqft, opp looking at old HDB blocks (to be demolished soon), of coz there's still robertson / RV / Ion not too far away... but i never thot it cld fetch 4K rental, some units even higher...

i juz feel overall the theme of the project has it's selling point. the mm studio in this project, unless at the right quantum, if not it's a risk to buy

ahlipp

April 6th, 2011, 04:26 PM

well the problem is the living room is so small and they have a pillar in the living room at the corner. the show flat try to fudge the living room and balcony by extending the marble all the way to the balcony. It buyer would be surprise how small the livable space will be upon completion .

yes.. 300+ sqft i tink is very small but if done up nicely is still livable for 2 persons... so i tink the facilities there is important...the facilities with the heated lap pool... hot tub, dining options makes it interesting. Of coz it's location is also prime

whatever it is...has to be right price lah... unless pocket fat fat can afford to buy and keep as personal collection items...

Mr Duku

April 7th, 2011, 05:55 AM

yes.. 300+ sqft i tink is very small but if done up nicely is still livable for 2 persons... so i tink the facilities there is important...the facilities with the heated lap pool... hot tub, dining options makes it interesting. Of coz it's location is also prime

whatever it is...has to be right price lah... unless pocket fat fat can afford to buy and keep as personal collection items...

Can go down to Ikea to feel how 300+sqft layout feels like.
like the way they maximise the space.

Personally I think 300 sqft is not for long term living. Rental yes, owner occupied would seriously think about it especially for 2 person

newbie11

April 7th, 2011, 05:04 PM

especially for 2 person

exactly.. how to do it? challenging.. :lol:

Minority

April 8th, 2011, 02:34 AM

exactly.. how to do it? challenging.. :lol:

Dual stack everything:banana:.

tigersee

April 8th, 2011, 03:33 AM

BYD COMPANY (HKG)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=1211.HK+Basic+Chart&t=3m

Warren buffet bot this stock!
price dropping for pase months, good time to buy some now?

novice

April 8th, 2011, 06:15 AM

Dear Schtaw,

Silver approaching 40 :banana:.
Where do we go from here?
buy, hold or sell?

still have chances to go up higher?

novice

April 8th, 2011, 08:00 AM

tigersee

April 8th, 2011, 10:46 AM

Dear Schtaw,

Silver approaching 40 :banana:.
Where do we go from here?
buy, hold or sell?

still have chances to go up higher?

my 2 cent worth...
every bull run there are 3 phases
stage 1. smart money in...price move a little over a very long peroid of time
stage 2. insitue and fund manage money come in... price move a little more over a shorter peroid of time
stage 3. Mass n retail market come in .... price soar in a very short time

silver is more like at beginning stage 2.... most pple ard still dunno know how to invest in silver

gold averaged 2 digit gain over last 8 eight... but i dun see it at stage 3 yet.... awareness still quite limited..

devilplate

April 8th, 2011, 06:19 PM

my 2 cent worth...
every bull run there are 3 phases
stage 1. smart money in...price move a little over a very long peroid of time
stage 2. insitue and fund manage money come in... price move a little more over a shorter peroid of time
stage 3. Mass n retail market come in .... price soar in a very short time

silver is more like at beginning stage 2.... most pple ard still dunno know how to invest in silver

gold averaged 2 digit gain over last 8 eight... but i dun see it at stage 3 yet.... awareness still quite limited..

silver almost tripled within 2 yrs....still stage 2?:nuts:

gwlip

April 8th, 2011, 08:17 PM

silver almost tripled within 2 yrs....still stage 2?:nuts:

I agree with Tigersee, early stage 2...

tigersee

April 8th, 2011, 08:18 PM

The fact is mass or retail investor had not come in. Once they come in ... Price movement will be much more

Mr Duku

April 8th, 2011, 11:43 PM

Given all the attention to candidates' FB accts (like TPL), forum postings etc, who among the candidates do you think Baby is?
(just to jog our memories : he deleted a lot of recent posts late last year).

I wonder too...
Given his profile, should be easy to narrow down to a few candidates.

Maybe even opposition??:nuts:

shctaw

April 9th, 2011, 02:39 AM

In life; people trade in and out of all trade especially when the seed money is small. And thus fail miserably or took longer time to achieve their retirement dream.

When you progress to larger amount of money; you cannot trade in and out of every trade. You just need 3-5 trade in your life-time and that is it.

I suggest those whom think Gold and Silver is in a bubble to read Kondratiev wave.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d4/Kondratieff_Wave.gif

Supercycle can go for 20 years to 50 years. Since I do not think most of us can live to 100; that is way to do 3-5 trades in your life-time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeTYO5ViN9s

Marc Faber agree that at $1470 Gold is cheaper now than when it is $250 in 1999.
To layman; alot of them will think Dr Doom is crazy.

But when you take all the Gold in the world and divided by all the money in the world; it look like $10,000 Gold is more reasonable.

Latest move:
Bought Gold ($1400) and Silver ($38-39)
Long RMB

Short US T-bill
Short US dollar

Watching:
Russia; Japan

shctaw

April 9th, 2011, 04:58 AM

Something is brewing.......

US government on brink of shutdown.
http://www.dawn.com/2011/04/09/us-government-on-brink-of-shutdown.html

D.C. readies for a government shutdown.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/washington-readies-for-a-government-shutdown/2011/04/08/AFH4rW4C_story.html

Government shutdown comes down to wire.‎
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2011/04/john-boehner-harry-reid-government-shutdown-/1

cnud

April 9th, 2011, 05:30 AM

Any takes on AUD? Still going strong...

y2koh

April 9th, 2011, 05:42 AM

Temporary agreement just reached 40mins ago.

shctaw

April 9th, 2011, 06:10 AM

Temporary agreement just reached 40mins ago.

.

Hit them at their pocket. If the army cannot provide for their family; they cannot fight a winning war.

newbie11

April 9th, 2011, 05:42 PM

Arcachon

April 10th, 2011, 05:19 AM

Linda Green was pay 10 dollar an hour to be the Vice President of the America bank, the problem is there are lot of them.

The next housing shock

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7361572n

Mortgage mess: Who really owns your mortgage?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504803_162-20049744-10391709.html?tag=segementExtraScroller;housing

shctaw

April 10th, 2011, 02:03 PM

This new project in Simei sold between $1116-1329.

My Manhattan

I am quite surprise some units are sold. It really made Centro @AMK look cheap.

Minority

April 10th, 2011, 02:30 PM

This new project in Simei sold between $1116-1329.

My Manhattan

I am quite surprise some units are sold. It really made Centro @AMK look cheap.

If for investment I wonder how much the pple think can rent to break even?

tigersee

April 10th, 2011, 07:26 PM

This new project in Simei sold between $1116-1329.

My Manhattan

I am quite surprise some units are sold. It really made Centro @AMK look cheap.

think bot buy cash rich chinese

shctaw

April 12th, 2011, 01:55 AM

Did Australia property prices just fall off the cliff?

Luxury Units Sell For 50% of Cost

The Fraser Coast Chronicle reports Luxury units go at basement prices

AFTER more than 18 months on the market, the luxury Riverview On March apartments finally went under the hammer yesterday — and about 140 people came to watch as they sold for a song.

Valued at $650,000 to $700,000-plus each, four of the six units sold. They fetched $510,000, $320,000, $339,000 and $300,000.
(That is more than 50% off!)

Auctioneer Jason Andrew was made to earn his keep in cajoling every last dollar out of the buyers, but bidding was desultory for the two penthouses, which were eventually passed in because they did not meet the reserve price.

Developer Ron Blyth admitted he felt hard done by, with three of the four sold units going for less than half the building cost.

Even on the highest-selling apartment, Mr Blyth lost about $200,000 – or a total of about $1.2 million for the combined sales.
“It's less than encouraging,” he said. “The situation probably is that real estate isn't in vogue at the moment.” “I thought we had enough interest to get them sold, but there w bidders there and they didn't all bid.”

There were not really 30 bidders there were 4 bidders and 26 "Lookie Lous". Expect to see "No Bid" with increasing frequency at auctions.

shctaw

April 12th, 2011, 02:01 AM

Australia property is not having a correction; it is a start of a 3-5 years bear market. Any rebounce will be a correction.

2015-16 will be a good time to buy Australia properties; by that time the price may have corrected around 70% at least on average.

Best thing to do now is to buy Australia dollar and wait...

Patience may eventually pay off handsomely.

I just love this song...Patience by Gun & Roses.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEzuC5UoM8g

Shed a tear 'cause I'm missing you
I'm still alright to smile
Girl, I think about you every day now
Was a time when I wasn't sure
But you set my mind at ease
There is no doubt you're in my heart now
Said woman take it slow
It'll work itself out fine
All we need is just a little patience
Said sugar make it slow
And we'll come together fine
All we need is just a little patience(inhale) Patience...
Ooh, oh, yeah

Sit here on the stairs
'Cause I'd rather be alone
If I can't have you right now, I'll wait dear
Sometimes, I get so tense
But I can't speed up the time
But you know, love, there's one more thing to consider
Said woman take it slow
Things will be just fine
You and I'll just use a little patience
Said sugar take the time
'Cause the lights are shining bright
You and I've got what it takes to make it
We won't fake it, Oh never break it
'Cause I can't take it

...little patience, mm yeah, ooh yeah,
Need a little patience, yeah
Just a little patience, yeah
Some more pati... (ence, yeah)
I've been walking these streets at night
Just trying to get it right (Need some patience, yeah)
It's hard to see with so many around
You know I don't like being stuck in a crowd (Could use some patience, yeah)
And the streets don't change but maybe the name
I ain't got time for the game
'Cause I need you (Patience, yeah)
Yeah, yeah well I need you
Oh, I need you (Take some patience)
Whoa, I need you (Just a little patience is all we need)
Ooh, this ti- me....

moneyspinner

April 12th, 2011, 05:34 AM

Why the crash in Australian properties? I thought the Australian economy is doing well??

stingraytan

April 12th, 2011, 05:41 AM

alert alert bro piggy! guru has spoken. patience~

LittlePig

April 12th, 2011, 05:57 AM

hi hi bro stingray!! yes, waiting waiting...

shctaw

April 12th, 2011, 06:05 AM

Why the crash in Australian properties? I thought the Australian economy is doing well??

My source told me the Australia property bubble is bigger than the US property bubble.

Economy can go from doing well to doing badly overnight. (Lehman collapse)

Australia ppty Sellers properties have double in 1 month; and buyers are running away.

Avoid Australia's bank share.

PS: You hardly find news on Australia property price downward spiral. The corporation is hiding the news from the public.

LittlePig

April 12th, 2011, 06:25 AM

My source told me the Australia property bubble is bigger than the US property bubble.

Economy can go from doing well to doing badly overnight. (Lehman collapse)

Australia ppty Sellers properties have double in 1 month; and buyers are running away.

Avoid Australia's bank share.

PS: You hardly find news on Australia property price downward spiral. The corporation is hiding the news from the public.

Hmm… but bro shctaw… the Australian mining industry is booming right? And it will continue to boom as long as China is buying for its own consumption. And when US recovers from its doldrums, it will import more from China and the rest of Asia which in turn benefit Aussie mining industry… Australia can also fight a slump in property prices by cutting their rates right? Isn’t the Australian economy fundamentally strong and a 1.20 AUDUSD in sight?

And how would the aussie property bubble (if any) bigger than the US counterpart when the former is not heavily leveraged?

SuperMax

April 12th, 2011, 06:27 AM

shctaw

April 12th, 2011, 07:39 AM

Booming of mining industry have nothing to do with housing industry.

They function differently.

China now in deep shit; inflation and slower growth will hit the mining sector too.

The number of mortgage approval rate drop like a rock. Properties for sale accross Australia have just double.

Australia cannot cut rate; one they cut rate inflation will kill them. Double edge sword remember?

The size of the bubble is not base on leverage level, it base on debt over GDP. (look at the chart; it is just about to turn down.:ohno:)

http://financialinsights.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/mortgage-debt-gdp-us-australia-steve-keen.jpg?w=640&h=407

Hmm… but bro shctaw… the Australian mining industry is booming right? And it will continue to boom as long as China is buying for its own consumption. And when US recovers from its doldrums, it will import more from China and the rest of Asia which in turn benefit Aussie mining industry… Australia can also fight a slump in property prices by cutting their rates right? Isn’t the Australian economy fundamentally strong and a 1.20 AUDUSD in sight?

And how would the aussie property bubble (if any) bigger than the US counterpart when the former is not heavily leveraged?

shctaw

April 12th, 2011, 07:46 AM

Bro,can still accumulate Aussie dollar at this rate?

Depend on your reason in buying AUD$?

If for pure currency investment; it is a bit too expensive.

If you intend to stay or retire in Australia; you should dollar cost average.

moneyspinner

April 12th, 2011, 08:59 AM

Bro Shctaw, in the same line, how about the property market in Singapore? Will it suffer the same fate?

LittlePig

April 12th, 2011, 09:04 AM

SuperMax

April 12th, 2011, 09:09 AM

Depend on your reason in buying AUD$?

If for pure currency investment; it is a bit too expensive.

If you intend to stay or retire in Australia; you should dollar cost average.

What is the comfortable level to buy against US dollar

tigersee

April 12th, 2011, 09:20 AM

LittlePig

April 12th, 2011, 10:40 AM

Can i join? CHEERS

Sure... I guess... I'm not the organiser though... :)

shctaw

April 12th, 2011, 10:48 AM

Bro Shctaw, in the same line, how about the property market in Singapore? Will it suffer the same fate?

I am not 100% sure; but I am not taking any chances. I wish to keep my winning by 2011.

The landed properties is the last move up...

I am done with SG properties. Even if I miss the top by 10-20%; I cannot be bother as I am selling to invest elsewhere.

I intend to sell 4 SG properties by June 2011...That should say it all.

If there is no bubble; maybe it is because we are in it; hence we cannot see it.

PS: Sorry if anyone do not like this post; that make 2 of us whom do not like this post.

shctaw

April 12th, 2011, 10:52 AM

What is the comfortable level to buy against US dollar

Sell Sell Sell.

We may not have US dollar after 2012-2014. And I am not kidding.

shctaw

April 12th, 2011, 11:03 AM

Let have some fun with some figure...

Singaporean median income.
2006-$50,800.(IRAS)
2008-$52,300.(IRAS)
2010-$55,000. (my estimate)

A four room 4A HDB flat in SIMEI. $450,000 or 8.18 years median income of a Singaporean.

I doubt a lot of Singaporean now find owning a HDB may eventually become a dream. And after you own it ; it may become your nightmare if price start to go down.

I visited My Manhatten yesterday and a unit is going around $1.32m. Let say someone whom earn more than double what an average Singaporean earn and we put it at $110,000 hence he deserve a condo... :lol: It will take him exactly 12 years of his median income.

I am trying to exit before the stampede...

http://yeinjee.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/cambodia-stampede.jpg

Minority

April 12th, 2011, 12:09 PM

Got a call from a tele marketer city crop ( nothing to do with citibank or any bank) they are marketing property from the overseas agent call concord property. Giving iPad n samsung tablet n free ticket to hk just to attend a 2 HR no obligation talk.

Smell a rat n told them not interested. Guess more creative marketing coming....

condo88

April 12th, 2011, 01:18 PM

But 2009,everybody also said property crash but it just went up as all govt print money, so how is it different now and 2009, Govt just have QE1,QE2,QE3 and so on, so how to crash when so many people got money, especially spore property owners bought 4 yrs got 100% buffer,any views?

newbie11

April 12th, 2011, 04:18 PM

LMAO.. From a forum..
"Invest in oil futures like NYMEX Crude Oil, let's say you order now you get in oct, they delivered to your address is it?.. "

shctaw

April 13th, 2011, 03:54 AM

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/76276776/4-12-11-JEG-Webcast-Deja-Vu

Here is a 97 pages report.

Hope everyone will just go thru it and make your own decision on investing in 2011.

stingraytan

April 13th, 2011, 04:33 AM

Bro! Thanks for your time! Looks like need to do lots of indept study before jumping the gun!!

Thanks again!!

Hmm... I wonder when will the next drinking session be... :cheers::lol:

the thirsty ray is waiting as always!

:cheers::cheers:

thans schtaw for sharing your views and points as always.

tigersee

April 13th, 2011, 04:39 AM

Sure... I guess... I'm not the organiser though... :)

Organiser. Pls include me
Thanks you in advance

shctaw

April 13th, 2011, 04:54 AM

Please keep an eye on the following I mention on 1 Jan...

Some already happened...

Others .... Akan Datang.

Watch China and Russia (positive note)
Fall (in slow motion) of US, Europe and Japan
Slow fall of US dollar
Watch crude oil prices US$150
A middle east crisis within to distract attention.
Gold US$1800 Silver US$50
Rising interest rate
Fall in Muni-bond in USA
Fail bond auctions

SuperMax

April 13th, 2011, 06:23 AM

Sell Sell Sell.

We may not have US dollar after 2012-2014. And I am not kidding.

Bro, your opinion at what level can accumulate $AUS if it comes down?The demand for $AUS is very strong after the Japan crisis

Minority

April 13th, 2011, 06:49 AM

Please keep an eye on the following I mention on 1 Jan...

Some already happened...

Others .... Akan Datang.

so wat must we all do.. exit all?

moneyspinner

April 13th, 2011, 09:52 AM

so wat must we all do.. exit all?

Every individual will have to do their sum and make their decision and this is what the MARKET is all about. In every winner there is a loser.

love laguna

April 13th, 2011, 03:25 PM

I am ok to organise a drinking session for all
by the pool side
anyone interested, just drop PM

shctaw

April 13th, 2011, 03:48 PM

Latest new Iphone & IPAD app for Singapore property transaction price from URA.

Search

property market information singapore

In app store or itunes.

stingraytan

April 13th, 2011, 03:57 PM

Love laguna.. the poor farmer have his event looooong overdue... dont jump Q can?

stingraytan

April 13th, 2011, 03:57 PM

Many thanks to all brothers and shifus and gurus for tonights session! other than the alcohol involved, the words of wisdom and info shared are priceless!

Minority

April 13th, 2011, 04:29 PM

Business Times - 13 Apr 2011

Commercial property stays attractive

Global direct commercial real estate investment volumes to rise to US$380b-US$400b this year, says JLL

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

GLOBAL direct commercial real estate investment volumes are expected to reach US$380 billion-US$400 billion for the whole of this year, up from last year's US$318 billion, according to Jones Lang LaSalle's (JLL) Capital Markets Research.

The preliminary estimate for the first quarter 2011 number was just under US$90 billion, down 20 per cent from the preceding quarter but up nearly 38 per cent from Q1 2010, reflecting the continued appeal of commercial property to a broad range of investors.

Asia-Pacific volumes continued to be strong, hitting about US$27 billion in the first quarter, up from US$25 billion in Q4 2010 and US$24 billion in Q1 2010.

'This continued growth is testament to the strong fundamentals of the region,' noted Stuart Crow, head of Asia-Pacific capital markets at the property consultancy giant. 'Japan was the most active real estate market (in the Asia-Pacific region) with a confident start to the year, albeit prior to the recent earthquake tragedy,' he added.

JLL expects a period of uncertainty resulting in declining transaction volume in Q2 for Japan.

As Japan makes up a sizeable component of the overall Asia-Pacific volume, this will have an impact on direct commercial real estate investment volumes this quarter for the region, despite strong activity in other countries, said Mr Crow.

Singapore will probably see increasing volume with more stock coming up for sale as sellers capitalise on strong investment sentiment, particularly in the office market.

The quarter-on-quarter drop in the first quarter global direct commercial real estate investment volumes was expected as there is a bias for the completion of deals in North America and Europe in the fourth quarter every year which leads to a jump in the October to December period, after which things tend to slow down in the first quarter, said Paul Guest, director of JLL's global capital markets research.

The record year was in 2007 when US$759 billion of deals were done. JLL's numbers on direct commercial real estate investment deals cover the office, retail, industrial and hotel segments, but exclude land and the residential sector.

JLL noted that in Europe and the Middle East, activity slowed in Q1 2011 over the preceding quarter but was up nearly a quarter year-on-year. Compared to the start of 2010, all major markets have seen an increase in volumes particularly Germany, Poland, Russia and the UK.

JLL's head of international capital group, Arthur de Haast, said: 'We continue to see strong interest for core products in gateway cities from institutional and private investors. However, investors are only moving into riskier markets and products on a selective basis, with many waiting to see more bank-released products or stronger fundamentals first.'

Looking at global volumes, Mr Guest said: 'There are sound reasons for investors to be looking at commercial property: its perceived inflation hedge; supply shortages in many gateway markets; appealing risk-adjusted returns when compared to more volatile assets; still-attractive pricing outside some of the prime markets which corrected earliest; and even a pick-up in both debt issuance and securitisation.

'We expect a further US$290 billion- US$310 billion in direct commercial real estate transaction volumes in the remainder of this year.'

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

tigersee

April 13th, 2011, 04:47 PM

Latest new Iphone & IPAD app for Singapore property transaction price from URA.

Search

property market information singapore

In app store or itunes.

Thks man. Great apps. Going more addicted to iPhone. It becoming indispensable.

Search ura.... There is a masterplan2008 as well

tigersee

April 13th, 2011, 04:50 PM

Many thanks to all brothers and shifus and gurus for tonights session! other than the alcohol involved, the words of wisdom and info shared are priceless!

Many thks.. U say it all

LittlePig

April 13th, 2011, 05:04 PM

Many thanks to all brothers and shifus and gurus for tonights session! other than the alcohol involved, the words of wisdom and info shared are priceless!

Huh?? I thought we were just a bunch of really crazy people? *burp* no broken flutes this time. but yeah, thanks again Veru the Guru!

stingraytan

April 13th, 2011, 05:06 PM

Crazy is relative...
:P

LittlePig

April 13th, 2011, 05:08 PM

Crazy is relative...
:P

Too much beer can make us crazy... hehe...

stingraytan

April 13th, 2011, 05:15 PM

Huh?? I thought we were just a bunch of really crazy people? *burp* no broken flutes this time. but yeah, thanks again Veru the Guru!

:bash::bash::bash:

a sign of old age or not enough?

:cheers:

LittlePig

April 14th, 2011, 03:19 AM

:bash::bash::bash:

a sign of old age or not enough?

:cheers:

we didn't have Moet this time... :)

shctaw

April 14th, 2011, 03:24 AM

Another Iphone App which is not bad..... but price any how put one hor....

Property Guru

We can have Moet next time we meet..... will not be too long a wait....

shctaw

April 14th, 2011, 04:54 AM

Strong SGD dollar ; bad for export.
Weak SGD dollar ; high inflation.

MAS decide to kill export to avoid inflation.

Singapore MAS Tightens, Re-Centers Sgd Band Up

Singapore's central bank announced Thursday that it had tightened its monetary policy further, re-centering to a higher level the mid-point of the band it uses to guide the trade-weighted Singapore dollar exchange rate.

In its semi-annual policy statement, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said it will "re-center the exchange rate policy band upwards. The exchange rate policy band will be re-centered below the prevailing level of the Singapore dollar NEER (nominal effective exchange rate)."

The MAS uses the exchange rate, instead of interest rates, as its primary monetary policy instrument because of Singapore's small, open economy, where the value of trade is about three times the size of the country's GDP. The MAS guides the Singapore dollar within an undisclosed band against a trade-weighted basket of currencies of the city state's major trading partners.

"This adjustment takes into account the tighter policy stance adopted in April and October last year, which will continue to have a restraining effect on the economy and prices," the MAS said. "There will be no change to the slope and width of the band."

The MAS said today's policy move, effectively a one-off and seen as a fairly aggressive tightening measure, "Will ensure price stability in the medium term while keeping growth on a sustainable path."

Most economists had been expecting the MAS to adopt further tightening measures as the trade-dependent city-state struggled to contain the impact of accelerating inflation stemming from higher oil, labor and transport costs.

However, economists had been split over whether the MAS would initiate a call for faster currency appreciation or opt for the more aggressive re-centering of the mid-point of Singapore dollar policy band.

The MAS decision triggered a knee jerk rise the Singapore dollar against the U.S. dollar, to sgd1.2454, from around sgd1.2555 earlier in the session.

The MAS move came as the government also released data showing the Singapore economy expanded 23.5% in the first quarter, on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, up sharply from the unrevised 3.9% growth rate in the previous quarter.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry said in its advance Q1 GDP release that the economy also expanded 8.5% year-on-year in the January-March quarter, slowing marginally from a 12.0% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Despite the slowdown, the MAS said in its policy statement full-year growth for 2011 is seen at the upper end of the government's 4% to 6% forecast.

Inflation, however, remains a potential threat, the MAS said, as wage pressures build up within a tightening labor market.

"Although the pass-through of wages to services costs has been relatively muted so far, the pass-through could strengthen given firm economic conditions," the central bank said.

It said CPI inflation rose from 3.4% in Q3 2010 to 5.2% in the first two months of 2011, while the MAS' core inflation measure remained around 2%.

"Taken together, headline inflation is forecast to stay elevated and will moderate only gradually to around 3% by Q4 2011," the MAS said.

"For the whole year, CPI inflation is expected to come in at the upper half of the 3% to 4% forecast range while MAS core inflation will be 2% to 3%."

The central bank added: "Economic activity is likely to be sustained at a high level for the rest of the year, even as the underlying growth momentum moderates."

Today's policy move marks the third consecutive quarter that the MAS has tightened policy. It first moved at the April 2010 review, when it moved from a neutral bias to the current Singapore dollar appreciation path.

shctaw

April 14th, 2011, 04:56 AM

Current move by MAS have made me sell my AUD; NZD; CAD (commodity currency) and go back to SGD.

SGD will strenghten at least 10% against AUD; NZD and CAD to fight inflation.

I only have 2 currency now; JPY and SGD.

Minority

April 14th, 2011, 08:04 AM

maybe after election they will let the inflation float back up... coz election pressure to put inflation at hold.

SuperMax

April 14th, 2011, 02:55 PM

tigersee

April 14th, 2011, 03:06 PM

Bro what about RMB? Convert $SG to RMB deposit account?

Sg import alot from china. So if wanna fight inflation effectively... Sgd should appreciate against rmb as well

AK47

April 14th, 2011, 05:59 PM

RMB HKD all peg to USD. USD go down they go down as well. SGD better.

Should RMB unpeg and appreciate, all Asian currency would also rise against USD.

shctaw

April 15th, 2011, 02:37 AM

Chinese Real Estate Bubble Pops – Beijing Prices Plunge 27% In ONE Month

Prices of new homes in China’s capital plunged 26.7% month-on-month in March, the Beijing News reported Tuesday, citing data from the city’s Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission.
Average prices of newly-built houses in March fell 10.9% over the same month last year to CNY19,679 per square meter, marking the first year-on-year decline since September 2009.
Home purchases fell 50.9% y/y and 41.5% m/m, the newspaper said, citing an unidentified official from the Housing Commission as saying the falls point to the government’s crackdown on speculation in the real estate market.”
… “For all intents and purposes a drop of this magnitude levered even 2 times (assuming 50% or so equity down) means that China is on the verge of a complete bubble implosion.

shctaw

April 15th, 2011, 02:38 AM

My system indicate....

The next property bubble to pop is

CANADA

SuperMax

April 15th, 2011, 04:47 AM

My system indicate....

The next property bubble to pop is

CANADA

AUS faster or Canada:lol:

SuperMax

April 15th, 2011, 04:48 AM

RMB HKD all peg to USD. USD go down they go down as well. SGD better.

Should RMB unpeg and appreciate, all Asian currency would also rise against USD.

Both can accumulate.

novice

April 15th, 2011, 09:07 AM

AUS faster or Canada:lol:

Can it be said that when overseas properties are promoted in Singapore, it means that is unsaleable.
Australia, London properties are now promoted in Singapore, from what few editions of ST I read whenever I am in Singapore. Canada dont have I think.

SuperMax

April 15th, 2011, 10:41 AM

Can it be said that when overseas properties are promoted in Singapore, it means that is unsaleable.
Australia, London properties are now promoted in Singapore, from what few editions of ST I read whenever I am in Singapore. Canada dont have I think.

Ya, i dont see any Canadian ppty launched in Malaysia too

supermanxf

April 16th, 2011, 03:58 PM

Please keep an eye on the following I mention on 1 Jan...

Some already happened...

Others .... Akan Datang.

does that mean penny stocks and stock brokage stock is moving up soon? but it seems like that volume is still there.
possible to park into gold and silver to ride out this crash?

shctaw

April 16th, 2011, 05:14 PM

Cafe Bloc

April 17th, 2011, 05:47 AM

'Even a broken clock is right twice a day'

I am just lucky. (quote I stolen from VERU. Thank you big brother. Tell Modi to drink with us soon.)

I intend to stop posting my view from now onward. Private message me if you have anything to share with me.

I intend to retire (or semi-retire) by the end of June 2011. :)

Take care guys.

hi yo bro shctaw, maybe u shld setup a blog :lol: i am sure it will be most popular.

hv been following ur postings and it has been most useful and insightful.

even as you retire, do visit this forum in your free time :)

stingraytan

April 17th, 2011, 06:18 AM

'Even a broken clock is right twice a day'

I am just lucky. (quote I stolen from VERU. Thank you big brother. Tell Modi to drink with us soon.)

I intend to stop posting my view from now onward. Private message me if you have anything to share with me.

I intend to retire (or semi-retire) by the end of June 2011. :)

Take care guys.

a broken clock is right twice a day, but a functioning clock that is slow will never be right. (being 5 minutes late all the time)

:cheers::cheers::cheers:

realist

April 17th, 2011, 07:35 AM

I am not 100% sure; but I am not taking any chances. I wish to keep my winning by 2011.

The landed properties is the last move up...

I am done with SG properties. Even if I miss the top by 10-20%; I cannot be bother as I am selling to invest elsewhere.

I intend to sell 4 SG properties by June 2011...That should say it all.

If there is no bubble; maybe it is because we are in it; hence we cannot see it.

PS: Sorry if anyone do not like this post; that make 2 of us whom do not like this post.

Selling resale is not easy now unless you go lower than the last few transactions. Care to share you advice how you can sell so many in such a short time?

realist

April 17th, 2011, 07:38 AM

Depend on your reason in buying AUD$?

If for pure currency investment; it is a bit too expensive.

If you intend to stay or retire in Australia; you should dollar cost average.
good advice on dollar average

love laguna

April 17th, 2011, 04:07 PM

'Even a broken clock is right twice a day'

I am just lucky. (quote I stolen from VERU. Thank you big brother. Tell Modi to drink with us soon.)

I intend to stop posting my view from now onward. Private message me if you have anything to share with me.

I intend to retire (or semi-retire) by the end of June 2011. :)

Take care guys.

Will definitely miss u a lot
In fact, the postings in this forum are so few nowadays as compare to 2006-7/
Wish u all the best.....
and enjoy your retirement...happy, healthy and wealthy

if possible, dun stop posting here...can pass time as well.

Minority

April 17th, 2011, 05:02 PM

yeah its been pretty quiet.. lately I guess like respective to the market.

tigersee

April 18th, 2011, 09:14 AM

'Even a broken clock is right twice a day'

I am just lucky. (quote I stolen from VERU. Thank you big brother. Tell Modi to drink with us soon.)

I intend to stop posting my view from now onward. Private message me if you have anything to share with me.

I intend to retire (or semi-retire) by the end of June 2011. :)

Take care guys.

Watchs,

Happy for u...that u had made it...
think it is wise of u to protect wat u have...
stay healthy n happy ya...

But pls consider posting here as past time....
u r like our watchs...we look out for you for the time

Mr Duku

April 20th, 2011, 09:25 AM

This forum is pretty quiet
Let's add some spice since election fever is around the corner
What do you think will be the impact on the property market if
1) PAP wins all seats in the election
2) PAP loses 1 GRC
3) PAP loses more than 1 GRC and more than 1 single seat. Popular votes hits all time low of 50%

Cheers!

cnud

April 20th, 2011, 12:43 PM

All these are noise...

Minority

April 20th, 2011, 03:41 PM

stingraytan

April 20th, 2011, 06:25 PM

vote PAP if want price to maintain....

:ohno::ohno::ohno::ohno::ohno::ohno::ohno:

colourbox

April 21st, 2011, 05:29 AM

vote PAP if want price to maintain....

Crazy logic there. :lol:

Minority

April 21st, 2011, 06:18 AM

Crazy logic there. :lol:

Why crazy? Say take the scenario they loose a few big GRC. So PAP knee jerk n give the pple wat they want. Close off foreign pple import. Slash hdb land price thus pushing down the hdb resale. In the mean time u get a interest rate hike that cause all the weak players to panic . Pple dump. Then price will plunge. Mass market to go down 1st , ccr also get pulled down.now hdb prices are providing support if int go up or crisis hit.

Anyway i guess down pple who want to buy will be happy. But wat if the change are drastic n we stay in a muliti yr recession n never recover?

Anyway this is one scenario I think when I saw the 3 options above.

Plainly my view only.

bricksnmortar

April 21st, 2011, 07:06 AM

newbie11

April 21st, 2011, 08:29 AM

sentiment in the online, social media world seemed to be less positive on PAP.. somehow i feel its the gen Y.. starting work, cant find job or compete with FT. or getting married, cant afford dream home (hdb/ pte).. salary stagnant, rising costs..

most of us (if not all) had benefited from real estate in last few years.. do u think the same as them?

SonofaDude

April 21st, 2011, 08:29 AM

Let's add some spice since election fever is around the corner

Hello people, sorry to be a wet blanket but I'm afraid we have to find other sort of spice to talk about. SSC does not encourage politics/political talk. Thanks for understanding.

colourbox

April 21st, 2011, 08:45 AM

Why crazy? Say take the scenario they loose a few big GRC. So PAP knee jerk n give the pple wat they want. Close off foreign pple import. Slash hdb land price thus pushing down the hdb resale. In the mean time u get a interest rate hike that cause all the weak players to panic . Pple dump. Then price will plunge. Mass market to go down 1st , ccr also get pulled down.now hdb prices are providing support if int go up or crisis hit.

Anyway i guess down pple who want to buy will be happy. But wat if the change are drastic n we stay in a muliti yr recession n never recover?

Anyway this is one scenario I think when I saw the 3 options above.

Plainly my view only.

This has nothing to do with your logic of "vote PAP for price to maintain".

cnud

April 21st, 2011, 12:04 PM

Politics affect properties. Properties affect politics...

AK47

April 21st, 2011, 04:12 PM

If China property crashes and cause serious hardship to it's people. It may be the catalyst for regime change. That event will be bloody going by ccp history. A long shot but if happen could pull the world down.

ahlipp

April 21st, 2011, 07:05 PM

Hi bros,

Am new to posting, but have been following the forum for years. Can i ask a new question:
How overheated do you think the Chinese property market is? Do you think that a crash there is imminent in the next 4-5 years? Hong Kong property prices already at all time record high. How much more will it go? Already there is so much property building and property loans in China. Makes me feel uneasy. How do we monitor and position ourselves in case it does crash? I foresee that the next big threat to the world economy is not the Europe debt crisis, but an overheated/ crashing Chinese economy.

i think for China, they wld have enough ammo to cushion a property crash. The world economy which in my opionion has so far been on steriods seems to be surviving well on coordinated "good" news & efforts such as QE / maintaining low interest rate / ex.rate manipulation. China being in a much stronger position than her counterparts in Europe or the US would be able to do more shld the need arise.

Frankly, i feel social unrest (due to rich poor divide and struggling working class) would hv a higher chance to de-stabilize China than a Financial / liquidity problem that would arise from a property crash. Yes of coz some people will suffer, but not to the extend of de-stabilizing properties in rest of Asia.

The financial system of the world just looks unbreakable, somehow having came back from the brink of death seems to be able to cushion whatever bad news which is out there... and printing money seems to be the easy cure to a pro-long cancer we call debt.

For a property / economic crash to occur, not only in China, i think would take an "unexpected" event to derail this delicate state of the world's economy... this something unexpected would not be in the form of a fanancial crisis or bubble but something else ... it's just an uncertain world for me

whatever it is.. no harm staying positive

chelsea fan

April 22nd, 2011, 05:51 AM

This has nothing to do with your logic of "vote PAP for price to maintain".

Obvious.
Fiscal & Monetary policies will affect property prices.

straller

April 22nd, 2011, 08:45 PM

Sales of luxury homes in Singapore have remained low due to the economic crisis in the US and Europe, though buyers are slowly returning, according to a top executive of Heeton Holdings.
Danny Low, Chief Operating Officer of Heeton, said the low luxury home sales in the country can also be attributed to the increasing number of locations competing for high-end buyers.
Source: http://singaporebusiness.asia/luxury-home-buyers-are-coming-back/

Minority

April 23rd, 2011, 06:31 PM

Business Times - 23 Apr 2011

Rolls-Royce of bungalows hits a road-bump as sales slump in Q1

Price of Good Class Bungalows holds firm but cooling measures hit sales volumes

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

SALES of Good Class Bungalows (GCBs) - the creme de la creme of the landed housing market on mainland Singapore - eased in the first quarter of this year, as the January property cooling measures hit even some of the well-heeled buyers in this property segment.

CB Richard Ellis' analysis of caveats information reveals 16 deals totalling about $338 million in Q1 2011 - down from 30 sales amounting to $623 million in Q4 last year, and 31 transactions worth $516 million in Q1 2010.

Still, the average per square foot price on land area in Q1 2011 showed no sign of weakening. It has instead crept up 3.4 per cent from $1,218 psf in Q4 last year to $1,260 psf.

Year on year, the latest Q1 average price of GCBs transacted jumped nearly 33 per cent.

The GCB transactions in Q1 work out to about 13 per cent of the record 121 deals for the whole of 2010. Their value of $338.5 million is 15 per cent of the $2.27 billion of GCBs that changed hands last year, which was also a fresh high.

Commenting on the latest drop in sales in upscale bungalows, CBRE director (luxury homes) Douglas Wong said: 'The seller's stamp duty rates announced in January for those who buy properties and sell them within four years have had an impact on short-term traders in the GCB market. So the volume of sales has dipped as there is less speculative activity, leaving owner-occupiers and long-term investors as the main players.'

Those who buy a private residential property from Jan 14 and sell it within a year, will be slapped with a seller's stamp duty of 16 per cent of the sale price of the property. The seller's stamp duty rates are 12 per cent, 8 per cent and 4 per cent if the property is disposed of in the second, third and fourth year respectively of purchase.

Mr Wong suggested that some GCB buyers who have to borrow may also be affected by the lower loan-to-value (LTV) cap of 60 per cent for those with existing housing loans. 'However, there are still many high networth individuals who can make an all-cash purchase or need to gear just slightly,' he said. The lower LTV doesn't bother them.

Explaining why average per square foot prices have held firm despite lower transaction volumes in Q1, Mr Wong said: 'Sellers are not in a hurry to offload their GCBs as most of them have holding power.

Another reason why they have less incentive to sell now, particularly if they intend to buy a replacement GCB later, is that the new purchase will be subject to the Jan 13 cooling measures. Hence, the effective pool of GCBs for sale is becoming even more limited.

'As a result, potential GCB buyers have even less choice - and those wishing to acquire a property for their own occupation or long-term investment may choose to pay a higher price.'

GCB deals in March this year include a $38.8 million transaction (about $1,618 psf on land area of 23,982 sq ft) at Tanglin Hill and a property at Cornwall Gardens which fetched $23.5 million or $1,496 psf on land area of 15,705 sq ft.

The buyer of the Tanglin Hill property is believed to be Luo Qian Qian, a non-executive director of Nasdaq-listed, Shanghai-based Shanda Interactive Entertainment Limited. According to Shanda's 2009 annual report, Ms Luo is married to Shanda chairman and chief executive officer Chen Tianqiao. She is understood to be a Singapore citizen.

The Cornwall Gardens bungalow is said to have been bought by Dorothy Ng, daughter of the late property tycoon Ng Teng Fong. She is understood to have purchased the property jointly with her son.

Newsman Realty managing director KH Tan predicts that while the number of GCB transactions for the whole of 2011 is likely to ease from last year's high, GCB prices are likely to increase by 10-15 per cent for the whole of this year.

'Sellers' price expectations are higher - and there is less GCB stock available for sale, while the ultra-rich shopping for GCBs are still flush with a lot of money,' he said.

Among those actively looking for GCBs now are 'local Singaporeans, new Singapore citizens, particularly those hailing from China and Indonesia, as well as some Singaporeans based in Hong Kong who are now returning home'.

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minority

April 23rd, 2011, 06:32 PM

Minority

April 24th, 2011, 05:11 PM

Quote From THE EDGE April 25 2011 ediditon

" With general Elections to be held on May 7, the question on investor's minds is whether there will be new government measures. In an April 15 report, Adrian Chua and Michael Lim , Analysts at UBS investment , Say there should be no changes in property measures either pre or post election. In their view demand side policies will continue to underpin property measures until interest rates normalize. Population policies will continue to focus on a slower pace of growth and integrating new citizens , as evidenced by the 2011 concept plan. which left the long term population planning parameter unchanged at 6.5Million.

The timing in the softening or recalibration of these policies will be determined by changes in the broader fundamentals, rather than a post election reaction. If the incumbent party wins by a strong mandate residential property stocks could bounce. Conversely should the mandate be weaker it could signal a level of electorate dissatisfaction with the existing cost of housing and population density related issues. this could instead bring the desired outcome of such policies into more urgent focus, leading to tighter measures particularly on the population policy front."

Mr Duku

April 25th, 2011, 08:02 AM

Hello people, sorry to be a wet blanket but I'm afraid we have to find other sort of spice to talk about. SSC does not encourage politics/political talk. Thanks for understanding.

My apologies
I only ask the question in context with the effect on property prices base on election results.

No other motives as I thought this relates to the property trend in Singapore:cheers:

Minority

April 26th, 2011, 05:00 AM

April 26, 2011, 10.07 am (Singapore time)

China raises capital requirement for top 5 banks

BEIJING - China has increased capital requirements for its five biggest banks above the minimum 11.5 per cent mark to guard against risks in the banking sector, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.

Citing three sources with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg said Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the world's biggest bank by stock market value, was told last month to have a capital adequacy ratio of at least 11.8 per cent.

Three other rivals of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China were told the same, with Agricultural Bank of China as the exception - it was told to have a ratio of 11.7 per cent.

The three other top Chinese banks are China Construction Bank, Bank of China and Bank of Communications Co Ltd.

An official in the press office at the China Banking Regulatory Commission, contacted by Reuters on Tuesday, denied that capital adequacy ratios had been raised for the banks.

A document obtained by Reuters in February showed China's banking regulator could raise the capital adequacy ratio for banks to as high as 14 per cent.

A 14-per cent level would be 250 basis points above the minimum 11.5 per cent mark, and would be implemented as an additional counter-cyclical requirement if the regulator thinks credit growth is abnormally strong. -- REUTERS

SonofaDude

April 27th, 2011, 04:48 PM

My apologies
I only ask the question in context with the effect on property prices base on election results.

No other motives as I thought this relates to the property trend in Singapore:cheers:

Hi Mr Duku,

No apologies needed. Appreciate your understanding.

Cheers.

Minority

April 28th, 2011, 09:20 AM

Business Times - 28 Apr 2011

Fed's Bernanke signals no rush to reverse stimulus

WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signalled on Wednesday that the US central bank is in no rush to scale back its support for the economy with the labour market still in a 'very, very deep hole.'

The Fed trimmed its forecast for 2011 economic growth in a nod to a weak start to the year and bumped up its projections for inflation, which caused some jitters in financial markets.

The central bank's policy-setting committee said after a two-day meeting it will complete the purchase of US$600 billion in bonds in June to support the economy's recovery, and said it would keep its balance sheet, currently at US$2.67 trillion, steady for a time to ensure its support does not fade.

It also repeated it plans to keep overnight interest rates, which it has held near zero since December 2008, extraordinarily low for 'an extended period.' 'It is a relatively slow recovery,' Mr Bernanke said at a news conference, the first after a policy meeting by a Fed chief in the central bank's 97-year history. 'The combination of high unemployment, high gas prices and high foreclosure rates is a terrible combination. A lot of people are having a tough time.'

Mr Bernanke appeared nervous at the start of the briefing, held at the central bank's headquarters, but he relaxed as the widely watched, nearly hour-long session progressed.

A hush fell over the normally bustling floor of the New York Stock Exchange with orders drying up as investors tuned into the central bank chief. 'It's kind of a novelty,' said Kenneth Polcari, managing director at ICAP Equities.

The news conference served multiple purposes for the Fed.

It allowed Mr Bernanke an opportunity to push back against stiff criticism from some lawmakers, economists and foreign officials that the Fed's efforts to prop up the US economy with more than US$2 trillion in stimulus would spark inflation.

It was also an opportunity for Mr Bernanke to seize control of an often very public debate among Fed officials over whether the stimulus course could backfire, providing a new tool to deliver a consensus central bank view directly to markets.

'In no way did Bernanke begin laying the groundwork for a near-term reversal in monetary policy,' said Michelle Girard, an economist with RBS in Stamford, Connecticut. 'The chairman appears watchful but comfortable with the Fed's current stance.'

Growth losing a step
In a fresh quarterly forecast, the Fed revised down its growth estimate for 2011 to between 3.1 per cent and 3.3 per cent from the 3.4 per cent to 3.9 per cent it saw in January. It said the recovery was proceeding at a 'moderate pace,' a shift from March when it said it was on 'firmer footing.'

Mr Bernanke said growth may have slowed to less than a 2 per cent annual rate in the first three months of this year after a 3.1 per cent advance in the fourth quarter of 2010.

But he added: 'I would say that roughly most of the slowdown in the first quarter is viewed by the committee as being transitory.'

The government releases its first estimate of first quarter GDP on Thursday.

The Fed lowered its projection for unemployment but said it would stay elevated over the central bank's three-year forecast period. The jobless rate stood at 8.8 per cent in March.

'The pace of improvement is still quite slow and we are digging ourselves out of a very, very deep hole,' Mr Bernanke said.

The central bank sharply raised its estimate for 2011 inflation to account for a surge in oil prices. However, it bumped up its core inflation forecasts only marginally and expressed confidence the jump in the cost of oil would not spark broader inflation.

Financial markets showed some nervousness. Prices for 30-year US government debt hit session lows on the inflation forecasts, while the price of gold - a traditional inflation hedge - hit a record high of almost US$1,530 an ounce.

The US dollar reached a three-year low against six major currencies as Mr Bernanke spoke. Stock markets, which have been pumped up by the Fed's monetary easing, rose on the expectation that the central bank's support will continue.

Interest rate futures showed traders continued to bet that the Fed would hold off on raising rates until early 2012.

Called out on dollar
Mr Bernanke faced broad questioning, including on the falling value of the dollar, which has been undercut by the Fed's easing as other major central banks raised interest rates.

While deferring to currency policy as an issue for the Treasury Department, Mr Bernanke said a strong, stable dollar was in the interests of the United States and the world economy.

To keep its balance sheet from shrinking, the Fed said it will continue to reinvest proceeds from maturing securities it holds, ensuring it would remain a big buyer in debt markets.

Mr Bernanke said a decision to stop that strategy would likely be the first step of a policy tightening, although he offered no timeframe on when that might occur.

As for an increase in interest rates, he suggested that was still some months off. 'Extended period suggests that there would be a couple of meetings before action but unfortunately ... we don't know how quickly a response will be required.'

Mr Bernanke told a questioner that the trade-off between the benefits of extending the bond-buying program and the potential for wider inflation had become less attractive.

'Inflation has been getting higher, inflation expectations are a bit higher,' he said. 'It's not clear we can get substantial improvements in payrolls without some additional inflation risks.' -- REUTERS

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minority

May 3rd, 2011, 08:19 PM

so quiet....

newbie11

May 4th, 2011, 02:40 AM

anyone loading more silver at this price? i bought more at 44 and at 41, even tempting

novice

May 4th, 2011, 02:45 AM

anyone loading more silver at this price? i bought more at 44 and at 41, even tempting

haha, margin call now, now topping up.
CME increase margin requirements 3x in 1 week :bash:

Mr Duku

May 5th, 2011, 10:37 AM

Silver is a sell above 40 for now...
Better wait till below 30

stingraytan

May 5th, 2011, 05:48 PM

quiet because we should be more vested and interested in local politics now even tho we shouldnt discuss it in this forum?
Yet at all times keeping an eye and global movements.. damn, not enough time and eyes to capture enough info..

tigersee

May 5th, 2011, 06:09 PM

stingraytan

May 5th, 2011, 08:46 PM

Ya....in life, too many nonsense, wasting too much time...time alway not enuff...

cant disagree with the too many nonsence line, but wasting too much time???
i hope that i'm not the only one who reflect, inflect, and came to the disgression that time and change is the ony constant, and thus we choose to use property as a choice as part if not all of our investment. If something like the current situation is a waste of time, then i sincerely request brothers and sisters here to direct me a new phase in my life where perhaps i can delink my freed up time (in pursuit of hopefuly more meanful things) and my vested interest in properties, be it how meagre....

:cheers:

LittlePig

May 6th, 2011, 03:05 AM

you just had one too many sake... you'll be fine come tomorrow... and then we can talk about property investment again... :)

y2koh

May 6th, 2011, 07:48 AM

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e573da6-7743-11e0-aed6-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1LY2gAjqt

Oil leads commodities price plunge

By Gregory Meyer in New York and Jack Farchy in London
Published: May 5 2011 19:29 | Last updated: May 6 2011 00:03
A record plunge in oil prices led the sharpest sell-off in commodities in two years as investors fled the market amid mounting concern over the strength of the global recovery.

Investors on Thursday dumped dollar-denominated commodities that would benefit from rising inflation after weaker-than-expected jobs figures were released in the US and Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, signalled that an interest rate increase was unlikely in June, sending the euro lower.

Traders who had bought oil to benefit from a fall in the dollar were flushed out, helping send brent crude, the oil benchmark, down more than $12 a barrel – its biggest fall in absolute terms.

Steep slides in everything from cocoa and copper to silver and gold could mark an end to a bull run that has taken the prices of many materials to record highs.

“This is one for the books,” said Edward Meir, commodities analyst at broker MF Global in New York. “Across the board you’re seeing a general unwinding of the commodity trade.”

The sell-off came a day after Glencore, the world’s biggest commodities trader, unveiled details of its multibillion-dollar flotation. Some investors drew comparisons with the initial public offerings of Goldman Sachs and private equity group Blackstone, which marked the top of their respective markets.

The benchmark Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a basket of commodities, fell 5 per cent, its biggest one-day percentage fall since the financial crisis and the fifth steepest on record. Brent fell to a session low of $109.02 a barrel, down $12.17 or 10 per cent. US crude prices sank below $100 for the first time since March.

Thursday’s “horrendous” sell-off, as described by one analyst, began in silver, which last week flirted with an all-time high of $50 per troy ounce after a 175 per cent run-up in less than a year. Small investors, who had piled into the precious metal for months, scrambled to sell their holdings, fearing heavy losses. Silver fell 12.9 per cent on Thursday to below $35, bringing its losses in the past week to 31 per cent. Gold dropped 3.6 per cent.

“You want to be the first one out the door because the trip down can be even faster than the trip up,” said Douglas Hepworth, director of research at commodities manager Gresham Investment Management.

Some analysts said markets could rebound rapidly, as they have done after similar corrections over the past year. While high prices are denting demand, miners, oil groups and farmers have struggled to boost supply to resolve tightness in the market.

The euro fell 2.1 per cent against the dollar to $1.4510 late in New York.

stingraytan

May 6th, 2011, 08:18 PM

you just had one too many sake... you'll be fine come tomorrow... and then we can talk about property investment again... :)

thank you bro, and as a juniour, again, i have to thank you for the graciouness bestowed towards me....

i was told the sake i drink was not affected by the radiation, and just to make sure, i was drinking that since 8pm tonight too... just to cool ourselves down a little.. :)

and yes, my dear bro, lets not talk about proerty investment, but also the crash in commodities recently.....

Minority

May 8th, 2011, 10:53 AM

Published May 7, 2011

Jewellers, investors chase bullion higher

(Singapore)

JEWELLERS and investors in Asia hunted for bargains yesterday after bullion dropped overnight in line with a brutal correction in silver prices, helping gold regain strength and pushing premiums higher.

Top buyer India was in the physical market observing Akshaya Tritya, a gold-buying festival yesterday, followed by the wedding season that will last through May. Gold jewellery forms an essential part of the dowry basket and Indian parents give it to their daughters at weddings.

Consumers from Thailand and Indonesia chased gold bars, with bullion prices already losing more than 5 per cent since striking a record around US$1,575 on Monday.

Gold bars were offered at premiums as high as 85 cents to spot London prices in Singapore, up from 50 cents earlier this week and also last week. Dealers noted physical buying on silver by bargain hunters in Singapore and Hong Kong.

'I guess everyone thinks we have tonnes of gold bars lying around that buyers can just grab and go, and worst of all, they are still shopping for bargains,' said a physical dealer in Singapore, who sells gold bars at a premium of 85 cents.

'But we dare not commit for anything that will not be on the shelf for them or will arrive later than next Wednesday,' he said, referring to tight gold supplies in Singapore.

Gold rose more than one per cent to US$1,489.26 an ounce, headed for a 5-per cent drop from a week earlier, its worst week since March 2009. Silver rose 2.5 per cent to US$35.54, snapping a five-day losing streak, but on track for a 26-per cent weekly loss, its biggest since the early 1980s.

'We're seeing buying from Indonesia, Thailand and basically from everywhere. We are quoting gold bars at 80 cents premiums,' said another physical dealer in Singapore.

'There's good buying around for gold and silver,' said the dealer, referring to demand from India.

Premiums for bars in Mumbai jumped to US$1.5 to US$1.8 an ounce to spot London prices from about US$1.2 a week earlier due to limited supplies. For silver, suppliers charged premiums of 15 to 20 cents an ounce, steady from last week.

Dealers in Hong Kong, a centre for bullion trading in East Asia, offered gold bars at a premium of up to US$1.7 from US$1 an ounce last week. Demand from jewellers helped stir up trade, but consumers in mainland China were on the sidelines.

'We haven't seen any significant change in buying interest since the prices dropped sharply, as people see it as a normal correction after prices rallied rapidly to the record above US$1,570,' said Yang Lutao, deputy general manager of Tianxinyang Gold Industry in Sichuan, which sells gold bars to retail investors. Premiums for silver were steady in Hong Kong at US$1 to spot London prices, although there were also higher offers as demand picked up after prices tumbled from record. -- Reuters

Minority

May 9th, 2011, 11:07 AM

Published May 9, 2011

Market may react negatively to GE results

Property stocks may be affected, say analysts

By UMA SHANKARI

THE Singapore stock market could see some negative impact from a more 'pro-worker' stance which analysts expect the government to adopt, following the ruling People's Action Party's share of the popular vote falling to a historic low of 60.1 per cent.

Property stocks, in particular, may be affected if the income ceiling for buying new HDB flats - a review promised during the hustings - is raised, as this will likely affect demand for private housing, they add.

'The government has a sense from the ground that there are a lot of concerns, such as the higher cost of living and rising home prices,' said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin.

'Going forward, the market will have to take into account a probable shift in policy emphasis from GDP growth to growing wages, and addressing the concerns of lower-income and middle-income workers as well as issues such as the growing cost of living and rising housing prices.'

This could tilt the government's stance from mainly 'pro-growth' and 'pro-business' towards being slightly more 'pro-worker', Dr Chua said, adding that this could cause a negative market reaction.

Terence Wong, the co-head of DMG & Partners Securities research, similarly said that he expects the market to have a 'slightly negative' reaction.

'It is no longer like in the past, when the main concern was being pro-business,' he said. 'Now, they have to look after the workers a bit more.'

Prasenjit Basu, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets in Singapore, has a different take. Some of the anxiety was already priced into the market in the days leading up to the General Election, he said. Since only six out of 87 seats were lost to Opposition parties, the market will recover today, he said.

Analysts said investors will, however, be worried that Singapore's foreign worker and immigration policies may be tightened further.

In addition, the government has in the past demonstrated its political will by cutting the employer's CPF contribution rate during economic downturns. It may not be as quick to take such an action in future with an electorate that is increasingly concerned about the rising cost of living and dwindling retirement savings.

Noted Nomura analyst Lim Jit Soon before Polling Day: 'If the PAP achieves a significantly reduced popular vote, it may review some of its policies which have affected its popularity like foreign workers, property and the integrated resorts.'

Property stocks, for example, were depressed after National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said early last week that the income ceiling for buying new HDB flats - unchanged for the past 17 years for first-timers - could be raised from the current $8,000 to $10,000 in a few months.

One developer noted that this could channel some demand away from the private housing market.

'If the income ceiling for BTO (build-to-order) flats is raised, so will the ceiling for EC (executive condominium) flats,' he said. 'Some buyers could switch to buying EC or HDB flats instead of private property.'

In addition, there are worries that more measures to cool the property market could be introduced. This will continue to depress property stocks until there is greater clarity, DMG's Mr Wong said.

PAP won 60.1 per cent of all votes cast in this year's GE - its lowest vote share since Singapore's independence and a tad lower than the 61 per cent it received in the 1991 GE.

Based on the past five GEs, there is no clear historical trend as to how the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) will perform over a one-month period post polling day, noted DMG.

But in the 2001 GE, when the PAP won 75 per cent of votes - the highest over the past five GEs - there was an 11.9 per cent rise in the Straits Times Index (STI) in the one-month period after polling day.

This is in stark contrast to the 1991 GE, when the PAP secured 61 per cent of votes (the lowest in the past five GEs) and the STI fell 3.1 per cent over the next month.

Aaronchong

May 18th, 2011, 04:02 AM

The Marq apartments hits price mark

Luxury apartment, The Marq, has hit a new price mark at $5,842 psf. What do these lifestyle units provide that warrants such high prices?

A new record has been set for the price of a private residential property in Singapore. Sources say that a four-bedroom apartment at SC Global Developments’ The Marq on Paterson Hill recently fetched $5,842 per square foot, surpassing the previous high of $5,600 psf set in October 2007 at The Orchard Residences.

The latest transaction at The Marq also sets a new benchmark for the project, surpassing the $5,262 psf that was achieved in 2007 for a 16th floor unit which was sold for $15.8 million, according to caveats data. Both units are of the same size, 3,003 sq ft.

The latest record breaker at The Marq, which involves a lump sum price of $17.5 million, is understood to be on the mid-to upper levels of the 24-storey project but is not a penthouse unit. The freehold development received Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) earlier this year and with the latest transaction, slightly over 40 per cent or 28 of the development’s 66 units have been sold.

The penthouse unit at The Orchard Residences that held the previous record price of $5,600 psf is on the 53rd level and involved a lump sum price of $28.269 million.

However, a caveat for that 5,048 sq ft unit does not appear to have been lodged, probably because the high net worth party who bought the apartment did not take any financing for the purchase and wants to preserve anonymity.
The Orchard Residences, which received Temporary Occupation Permit late last year, is on a site with a 99-year leasehold tenure starting around March 2006.

Pointing to a dearth of condo/apartment transactions above $5,000 psf since the previous property boom in 2007, Jones Lang LaSalle’s head of residential and national director Jacqueline Wong attributes this to a lack of new project launches in the ultra-luxury segment, as well as the fact that demand from foreign investors in this segment has yet to recover to the level seen in 2007 because of the current state of the global economy.

‘I don’t recall any launches at $4,500 psf or higher, post 2007. Right now there are five new projects in the prime Ardmore Park area whose developers could launch them if they chose to – but they haven’t,’ she added.

Analysts say that developers‘ strong balance sheets and the difficulty they face in finding replacement land banks in the luxury residential sector at viable prices are some reasons for developers to hold back launches in this market segment.

‘If any developer were to launch a new condo at above say $5,000 psf today, demand will likely come from owner occupiers rather than those buying with a view to collecting rental income because the yields won’t be attractive,’ JLL’s Ms Wong said.

Minority

May 18th, 2011, 04:04 PM

Business Times - 18 May 2011

Regulator fines RWS for 4 breaches

SINGAPORE - Singapore's Casino Regulatory Authority (CRA) said on Wednesday it has fined Genting Singapore's Resorts World at Sentosa a total of S$530,000 for four breaches of its rules.

Resorts World at Sentosa was fined for reimbursing the entry levy payable by Singapore citizens and permanent residents, as well as for failing to ensure that casino surveillance footage from several cameras was retained for the specific period required by CRA, the regulator said in a statement.

'The disciplinary action taken serves to remind casino operators to act responsibly to uphold the integrity of social safeguards put in place by the authorities,' said T Raja Kumar, chief executive of CRA.

Las Vegas Sands' Marina Bay Sands is the only other casino resort to be allowed in the city-state after Singapore legalised casino gaming in 2005 as part of a plan to boost tourism.

Genting's US$4.8 billion Resorts World at Sentosa opened its doors in February last year, making it the world's third most expensive casino complex after MGM's CityCentre in Las Vegas and Marina Bay Sands. -- REUTERS

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minority

May 18th, 2011, 04:05 PM

Business Times - 18 May 2011

Apartment at The Marq fetches $5,842 psf, sets a new price record

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2011-05-18/krunit18.jpg

(SINGAPORE) A new record has been set for the price of a private residential property in Singapore. Sources say that a four-bedroom apartment at SC Global Developments' The Marq on Paterson Hill recently fetched $5,842 per square foot, surpassing the previous high of $5,600 psf set in October 2007 at The Orchard Residences.

The latest transaction at The Marq also sets a new benchmark for the project, surpassing the $5,262 psf that was achieved in 2007 for a 16th floor unit which was sold for $15.8 million, according to caveats data. Both units are of the same size, 3,003 sq ft.

The latest record breaker at The Marq, which involves a lump sum price of $17.5 million, is understood to be on the mid-to upper levels of the 24-storey project but is not a penthouse unit. The freehold development received Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) earlier this year and with the latest transaction, slightly over 40 per cent or 28 of the development's 66 units have been sold.

The penthouse unit at The Orchard Residences that held the previous record price of $5,600 psf is on the 53rd level and involved a lump sum price of $28.269 million. However, a caveat for that 5,048 sq ft unit does not appear to have been lodged, probably because the high net worth party who bought the apartment did not take any financing for the purchase and wants to preserve anonymity.

The Orchard Residences, which received Temporary Occupation Permit late last year, is on a site with a 99-year leasehold tenure starting around March 2006.

Pointing to a dearth of condo/apartment transactions above $5,000 psf since the previous property boom in 2007, Jones Lang LaSalle's head of residential and national director Jacqueline Wong attributes this to a lack of new project launches in the ultra-luxury segment, as well as the fact that demand from foreign investors in this segment has yet to recover to the level seen in 2007 because of the current state of the global economy.

'I don't recall any launches at $4,500 psf or higher, post 2007. Right now there are five new projects in the prime Ardmore Park area whose developers could launch them if they chose to - but they haven't,' she added.

Analysts say that developers' strong balance sheets and the difficulty they face in finding replacement land banks in the luxury residential sector at viable prices are some reasons for developers to hold back launches in this market segment.

'If any developer were to launch a new condo at above say $5,000 psf today, demand will likely come from owner occupiers rather than those buying with a view to collecting rental income because the yields won't be attractive,' JLL's Ms Wong said.

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minority

May 19th, 2011, 06:33 AM

The quietness in the forum I guess reflects the subsale market now. ;)

SpinCity

May 19th, 2011, 11:06 AM

plus the absence of two heavy-weight contributors - shctaw and baby
wonder which MP is baby? Definitely not TPL

cnud

May 20th, 2011, 07:25 AM

Now that MBT is gone, KBW any good?

newbie11

May 20th, 2011, 09:03 AM

well, other forum is alive and kicking

bigbird72

May 20th, 2011, 09:19 AM

Look at Khaw's policies at MOH. Transparency and competition. Mean-testing.

So expect transparency and fairness.

I expect Khaw to tackle HDB first. I think he will operate on those 'investors' of HDB resale in past 3 years. Good luck to these folks.

SpinCity

May 20th, 2011, 04:35 PM

but health care also got more expensive over the past few years, didn't it

cnud

May 20th, 2011, 06:20 PM

Minority

May 20th, 2011, 06:34 PM

maybe sell HDB cheaper... but land lease is 70yrs like in china...

Minority

May 21st, 2011, 04:08 AM

Business Times - 21 May 2011

Khaw Boon Wan determined to make housing and HDB popular again

By UMA SHANKARI

OUTGOING Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan feels 'even greater trepidation' at heading the Ministry of National Development (MND) than when he took on his previous portfolio.

'I came to MOH (Ministry of Health) during Sars with some trepidation, not quite sure what I was walking into,' Mr Khaw wrote yesterday in his last blog post as health minister. 'I will go to MND with even greater trepidation. First, it is red-hot with widespread unhappiness. Second, unlike MOH, which is familiar territory, housing is a new frontier for me.'

But as when he took over MOH in 2003, he will enter MND 'in all sincerity' to make a useful contribution and with determination to make it better.

'I am driven by only one thought: housing is one of the greatest achievements of Singapore, and our pride. It is very sad to see it being hammered left, right and centre in the lead up to and during GE (general election),' Mr Khaw said.

'I am determined to make housing and HDB Singaporeans' popular icon again.'

Mr Khaw will be sworn in as National Development Minister today, replacing Mah Bow Tan. Analysts are expecting policy shifts from MND that will impact the HDB and mass market private housing sectors.

Mr Khaw also said in the blog post - titled 'Goodbye, My Friends' - that he hopes that Singaporeans will bear with him, and promised to work 'triply hard' to shorten the learning curve, 'listen intently' to all suggestions and criticism, and 'work humbly' with the housing experts in MND and beyond.

He also traced the major events that marked his eventful eight years with MOH.

'I joined MOH in 2003 when Sars erupted. MOH needed extra hands and then-PM Goh (Chok Tong) thought that my hospital experience would be helpful in the war against Sars,' Mr Khaw recalled.

'One thing led to the other: NKF (National Kidney Foundation), Ren Ci, H1N1, bed crunch, KTPH (Khoo Teck Puat Hospital), MediShield Reform, ElderShield, Medisave liberalisation, means testing, second medical school etc.' He added that there were many more things he wanted to do in MOH, such as transform the long-term care sector, ensure nursing home affordability, reform ElderShield, set up a third medical school, and expand polyclinics.

But he would entrust this agenda to the next health minister, Gan Kim Yong. 'I am leaving MOH with optimism that our healthcare system will continue to make progress. I am confident because of the quality of leadership at MOH and its many world-class institutions. We are not perfect, I know. But it is not bad. It certainly offers very good value for money,' Mr Khaw said.

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

bpestate

May 21st, 2011, 04:28 AM

Maybe he will ban all rentals of HDB flats. Only HDB allowed to lease..

allowing HDB owners to sublet entire flats easily was the cause of the events that we see. He might rein in the policy but don't think he will ban it. Otherwise the spillover to pte properties will surge.

y2koh

May 21st, 2011, 05:39 AM

That is highly possible. This will encourage people to think twice before buying a new HDB flat when the opportunities arise. Similar to means testing methodologies for healthcare, he may introduce stricter laws across the board:
1. All subletting of flats and even renting out of rooms within MOP need prior approval by HDB.
2. Increase MOP to 8-10 years and 5-8 years for new and resale flats.
3. Approval for subletting will be on case by case basis based on stricter rules based on financial and special situations of each family.
Since the current high demand for flats is due to the time lag between which the completed flats in the early 2000s had to be sold and the completion time for new BTO flats built after (resulting in only an avg of 5000 flats completed per year from 2001-2011 compared to an overall average of 20,000 since 1984), the effect on the private market will be minimal, but it will definitely stabilize the market sentiments.

bigbird72

May 21st, 2011, 06:07 AM

Maybe he will ban all rentals of HDB flats. Only HDB allowed to lease..

All HDB flats are on L99 lease from Govt...hahaha...

bigbird72

May 21st, 2011, 06:10 AM

Jialat. How come 'humble' and 'humbly' seems to be the popular MIW/PAP words nowaday.
Replacing "honest mistake' and 'let move on'....hahah..

bigbird72

May 21st, 2011, 06:16 AM

allowing HDB owners to sublet entire flats easily was the cause of the events that we see. He might rein in the policy but don't think he will ban it. Otherwise the spillover to pte properties will surge.

No la. It is the illegal practice of renting out without MOP.

If seriously, want to send strong signal.

1. Reward whistleblowers on illegal renting
2. Get IRAS to reassess income from renting HDB and penalize illegal renting income.
3. No need to confiscate flats. Just heavy fines.
4. Make them stay in their HDB flats (which is more like workers dorms).

bigbird72

May 21st, 2011, 06:22 AM

What is missing in this property bullrun is NTUC Housing Coop. 90s bull run
saw NTUC doing some mass mkt housing. But execution screwed up. With some
CBT/legal problems later on.

NTUC Housing Coop is another way to introduce not-just-for-profit-only competition into property mkt. This is mitigate problem of developers not selling low, even if they get low land prices.

But this is not the best way. Personally I also dont trust NTUC.

stingraytan

May 21st, 2011, 12:14 PM

maybe sell HDB cheaper... but land lease is 70yrs like in china...

sounds like a decent plan for cheaper HDB flats, but also put a premium on the private market that is suppose to be free market in the first place.

SpinCity

May 21st, 2011, 02:58 PM

maybe sell HDB cheaper... but land lease is 70yrs like in china...

Is the land lead tenure relevant in the context of HDB flat?

Minority

May 22nd, 2011, 02:41 AM

Is the land lead tenure relevant in the context of HDB flat?

It dont in reality. But u have to please the existing owners n reason to differentiate why new hdb is cheaper. Also must take care not to destroy existing hdb prices .

y2koh

May 22nd, 2011, 06:09 AM

This will also protect older flats from any reduction in value whenever there are additional measures introduced to reduce the prices of new flats.

Minority

May 23rd, 2011, 06:48 PM

Business Times - 23 May 2011

S'pore April CPI up 4.5%, slowing from March

SINGAPORE - Singapore's Department of Statistics released consumer price index (CPI) data for April on Monday.

The year-on-year increase of 4.5 per cent in the CPI was mainly due to higher transport, housing and food costs.

The CPI was unchanged on a month-on-month seasonally-adjusted basis.

The core inflation measure tracked by the Monetary Authority of Singapore rose 0.6 per cent month-on-month and 2.2 per cent from a year ago, faster than in March. The core measure excludes private road transport and accommodation-related costs as these are influenced by government policy.

Singapore officials said last week year-on-year inflation peaked in the first quarter. The central bank on April 14 warned that inflation this year will come in at the upper end of a 3-4 per cent forecast.

The CPI rose by 2.8 per cent for the whole of 2010. -- REUTERS

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minority

May 27th, 2011, 01:26 AM

Business Times - 27 May 2011

Priority: Young couples, divorcees, low earners

Khaw sets near term focus on their housing needs

By EMILYN YAP

(SINGAPORE) Young couples, divorcees with children and low income families are among those who have made it to the Ministry of National Development's (MND) priority list.

Former Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan, now the National Development Minister, revealed this yesterday in the first post he put up on his new Housing Matters blog.

In the entry titled Trepidation and Expectation, Mr Khaw said that many people have sent him emails, letters and facebook messages offering feedback and suggestions for housing issues.

'There were hundreds of them and many more will come, I am sure. I thank them all. They have given me a feel of the nature and the scale of the unhappiness and concerns,' he said.

But Mr Khaw stressed that it is not possible to please everyone as demands are often contradictory. He gave an example: many people want him to bring property prices down, but many also warned him against doing so.

'I am therefore realistic about what is doable. The key is to prioritise and set realistic goals, for short term, medium term and long term,' he said.

'In the immediate, I will focus on the housing needs of some groups like the young couples, divorcees with children, and low income families as I appreciate the anxieties they are currently experiencing.'

Fast rising home prices amid a sharp economic recovery in the last two years have bred a group of anxious home seekers. Housing affordability became a hot potato during the general election, with opposition parties coming up with various suggestions to keep flats within reach.

'I am not a masochist. Housing is hot politically and there are genuine problems on the ground,' Mr Khaw acknowledged.

'I will be very comfortable staying back in MOH (Ministry of Health) and I still have meaningful programmes to launch or complete. But I thought in my next five years I can be more useful in MND than in MOH.'

Mr Khaw said he will consult widely and use all communication platforms available. Through his new blog, he will regularly share his thoughts on issues under MND's purview. These include housing, land use, construction and food safety. Just this week, MND also launched its Facebook page.

Mr Khaw had a 'Health Minister Says' blog when he headed MOH and made regular posts since 2009. The new Health Minister, Gan Kim Yong, will be taking over that blog.

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minority

May 27th, 2011, 01:30 AM

Will there be a housing market overhaul?
by Colin Tan 04:47 AM May 27, 2011
The biggest news for the real estate industry after the General Election has to be the appointment of Mr Khaw Boon Wan as the new Minister for National Development.

Together with other new ministers, he will "have a free hand to rethink and reshape policies", Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has said.

Mr Khaw has acknowledged that the issue of housing is red-hot with widespread unhappiness and he has pledged to make "housing and HDB Singaporeans' popular icon again".

He will have his work cut out for him. We are already into our fourth set of cooling measures and have progressively and significantly ramped up housing supply - both for the private and public housing sectors.

In the space of four years, we have had three very good years of new private housing sales. And judging from the sales figures for the first four months of this year, we are right on track to achieve yet another good year. For a good number of market players - home buyers, investors, bankers and developers, the roots have sunk in deep and, in my opinion, we are almost at the point of no return.

Over the past four years, our housing policies have elevated Singapore very rapidly to be among the most attractive property investment destinations in Asia, if not the world. It is no wonder that investors are flocking to buy properties here. I am told that some overseas buyers do not even come here to visit. Such is the reputation that we have cultivated for ourselves that these investors simply instruct their lawyers to arrange for some monies to be invested in properties here. It has been that simple.

In hindsight, it was too much, too quickly. It was never going to work because given the current income levels of the general population, it was always going to be at odds with providing affordable housing and satisfying the upgrading dreams of citizens.

In my opinion, Singapore is too small geographically. Our public and private markets cannot be strictly segregated as they are more intertwined than we think. The more policies we have to promote one set of objectives, the more the other has to give.

I have seen this in other countries. It came to a point where developers needed to guarantee a certain number to be built for locals before they can even gain approval for their projects that were mainly targeted at foreign investors.

In the eyes of foreign buyers, Singapore is one of the most investor-friendly environments in the world, if not the most attractive. Even in some major economies, where land is aplenty, they have more foreign ownership rules and restrictions than Singapore.

I have been asked what I hoped for in new policies under Mr Khaw. I say, put aside for the time being, our goals of elevating Singapore to hubs of excellence in the various fields. Let us get our priorities right first. The rest will follow naturally.

As I see it, our new minister has two major problems that he has to deal with urgently - the seemingly unabated robust demand for new public housing flats despite the significant rise in supply. He has to isolate those buying in advance or panic buys from those needing their flats urgently and to help this latter group first.

The second is how to deal with the excessive liquidity that is flowing into property - primarily into housing.

We have thrown a lot of supply at the problem but it does not seem to have worked - at least not without other accompanying measures. Some of us in the real estate industry already think we have set off a ticking time bomb with the amount of supply we are pushing out and - if nothing changes - even more supply right up to the end of this year.

If you believe that our objectives have been radically re-prioritised under our new minister, then do expect possibly wholesale changes, including the rolling back of some of policies which are at odds with the new priorities. Do not expect more of the same type of cooling measures that I suspect some analysts are anticipating. In fact, the rules of the game may be changed.

Inconceivable? Well, many would not have thought that our two former Prime Ministers leaving the Cabinet so soon after the General Election was conceivable.

Colin Tan is head, research and consultancy, at Chesterton Suntec International.

Minority

May 27th, 2011, 01:47 AM

Business Times - 27 May 2011

UN warns of US dollar confidence crisis

Global financial system at risk if greenback's value continues to decline: report

(UNITED NATIONS) The United Nations warned on Wednesday of a possible crisis of confidence in, and even a 'collapse' of, the US dollar if its value against other currencies continued to decline.

In a mid-year review of the world economy, the UN economic division said that such a development, stemming from the falling value of foreign dollar holdings, would imperil the global financial system.

The report, an update of the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2011 report first issued in December, noted that the dollar exchange rate against a basket of other key currencies had reached its lowest level since the 1970s.

This trend, it said, had recently been driven in part by interest rate differentials between the United States and other major economies and growing concern about the sustainability of the US public debt, half of which is held by foreigners.

'As a result, further (expected) losses of the book value of the vast foreign reserve holdings could trigger a crisis of confidence in the reserve currency, which would put the entire global financial system at risk,' it said.

The 17-page report referred at another point to the 'still looming risk of a collapse of the United States dollar'.

Rob Vos, a senior UN economist involved with the report, said that if emerging markets 'massively start selling off dollars, then you can have this risk of a slide in the dollar'.

'We're not saying the collapse is imminent, but the factors are further building up that we could quickly come to that stage if other things are not improving quickly on other fronts - like the risk of the US not being able to service its obligations,' he told Reuters.

UN economists have for some time queried whether the dollar should continue to be the world's sole reserve currency.

Others have also expressed concerns about US finances.

Standard & Poor's threatened on April 18 to downgrade the United States' prized AAA credit rating unless the Obama administration and Congress found a way to slash the yawning federal budget deficit within two years.

A downgrade would erode the status of the United States as the world's most powerful economy and the dollar's role as the dominant global currency.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday that the US government would 'never default on its obligations'.

Assessing the broader global economy, the UN report said that recovery from the 2008 financial crisis continued to be led by China, India and Brazil, but that their growth outlook was moderating due to fears of inflation and domestic asset price bubbles.

It took a slightly more optimistic view of world growth prospects than it did six months ago, forecasting 3.3 per cent expansion this year and 3.6 per cent in 2012, compared with 3.1 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.

The United Nations uses a different exchange rate calculation than the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, making its global growth figures slightly lower.

It boosted its forecast for US gross domestic product growth this year from 2.2 per cent to 2.6 per cent but kept next year's estimate steady at 2.8 per cent.

The report cut Japan's growth outlook this year by more than a third to 0.7 per cent following March's catastrophic earthquake, tsunami and nuclear plant crisis. It put damage to buildings and infrastructure at about 25 trillion yen (S$380 billion) or 5 per cent of GDP.

Despite a recent surge in oil prices, it predicted that barring major disruptions from political unrest in the Middle East, they would level off at an average US$99 a barrel this year - close to the price of US crude on Wednesday - and fall to an average of US$90 next year.

'Supply and demand conditions do not warrant a continued upward trend,' it said.

Food prices have also been soaring but the report said that better harvests were expected to moderate them in the second half of this year\. \-- Reuters

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minority

May 27th, 2011, 11:48 AM

Business Times - 27 May 2011

S'pore's GDP set to overtake HK's this year: Merrill

SINGAPORE - Singapore's economy looks set to overtake Hong Kong's this year, helped by strong gains in Singapore's currency against the US dollar, to which the Hong Kong dollar is pegged, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Friday.

'Singapore's GDP overtook Hong Kong's in the first quarter of this year. In US dollar terms, Singapore's quarterly nominal GDP came in at US$63.9 billion, exceeding Hong Kong's US$57.9 billion by about 10 per cent,' Merrill economist Chua Hak Bin wrote in a report.

'Such a development would have been seen as far-fetched a decade ago, given Hong Kong's geographical advantage next to China versus Singapore's more volatile and marginalised neighborhood,' he added.

Singapore, which has 5.1 million people, earlier this month raised its gross domestic product growth forecast to 5-7 per cent for 2011 from an earlier estimate of 4-6 per cent. Its economy grew 8.3 per cent in the first quarter from a year ago.

Hong Kong, with a population of 7.1 million, said its GDP grew 7.2 per cent in the first three months of 2011 from a year ago and revised its full-year forecast to 5-6 per cent from 4-5 per cent.

The Singapore dollar appreciated by around 8.2 per cent against the Hong Kong dollar last year, according to Merrill.

Over the past decade, the South-east Asian city-state's currency has gained 23.3 per cent against its rival financial centre to the north. -- REUTERS

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

SonofaDude

May 30th, 2011, 11:08 AM

Singapore’s Property Market Headed Towards a Perfect Storm?
SINGAPORE, RESIDENTIAL, PROPERTY, CRASH, INTEREST RATES, ASIA PACIFIC, REAL ESTATE
CNBC.com
| 29 May 2011 | 11:35 PM ET
When a country registers a 15 percent growth rate, as Singapore did last year, there is bound to be a spill-over wealth effect. Singapore’s housing market has been cashing in on this big time - prices have rebounded 50 percent in just two years, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority, and cooling measures by the government have done little to calm them.

At a recent real estate conference organized by the National University of Singapore, which explored the theme “Will the boom never end,” Chua Chor Hoon, Head of South East Asia Research at property consultancy DTZ, said the Singapore residential market is not likely to decline much because of strong economic growth. But, she also outlined a worst-case scenario, which could unfold as early as 2013-2014. "If all the ingredients come together it will make a perfect storm," she told the audience.

These ingredients include falling demand, more supply and higher interest rates all kicking in together.

Interest rates in Singapore are currently at record lows because lending rates in the city-state track U.S. monetary policy. That’s allowed some homebuyers to pay less than one percent in the first year of their loans, says Chua. Most analysts, however, expect interest rates to begin moving higher later this year.

Second, in 2014 an unprecedented number of housing units are expected to enter the market. According to the URA’s latest quarterly report, 32,359 units will be completed over 2013 and 2014 that is 85 percent more than the 17,501 units expected over 2011 and 2012.

Add to this the fact that Singapore’s price-to-rent ratio has increased from 20 in 2009, during the financial crisis, to 25 currently, according to URA and DTZ research. That means it will take 25 years for a homebuyer to recover, through rents, what he paid for the house. As a result, Chua says, people investing in this market often have a short-term view looking to “flip” the property for capital gains.

Foreign buyers are also helping boost Singapore’s property market, especially at the high end. According to DTZ’s latest report, foreign buyers of private homes in the first quarter of 2011 touched a record high of 16 percent. But Chua points out that this could drop, if the government further tightens immigration rules.

“Local concerns about high housing prices and the influx of foreigners that were magnified during the recent General Election will be a catalyst for the review of immigration and housing policies, which could dampen demand in the residential market in the coming months, ” Chua wrote in a report.

While growth forecasts for Singapore over the next five years at 4-6 percent will support the property market says Chua, one cannot rule out another unforeseen external crisis like the financial meltdown, which could also lead to a market crash. While the bulls might find it hard to believe that something like that can happen again, another speaker at the same conference had this to say: “We always think this time it will be different, but it never is.”

© 2011 CNBC.com

Minority

May 30th, 2011, 04:24 PM

Business Times - 27 May 2011

S'pore still hot for property investment: DTZ

Capital values expected to be re-priced at faster pace this year

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

PROSPECTS for investing in Singapore's office, retail and industrial property markets have been categorised as 'hot' as at the first quarter of this year in DTZ's latest Money into Property report.

'This is similar to the Q4 2010 findings, as we expect continued price and rental increases based on Singapore's projected economic growth in 2011 and over the next few years,' said DTZ's head of South East Asia research Chua Chor Hoon.

'The Singapore office market is ranked among the top five in the 'hot' category among the Asia Pacific cities covered in this study. Capital values are expected to re-price at a faster rate (in 2011) compared with 2010 with growing interest from institutional investors,' she added.

The latest Q1 2011 DTZ Fair Value Index (FVI) score - an indicator of investment opportunities in the office, retail and industrial property markets - for Asia Pacific stood at 65, well above the global score of 50.

The more the number of hot markets in a region, the higher the index will be, with 100 being the maximum score.

DTZ noted that markets in the Asia Pacific are experiencing increased occupier demand from expanding domestic companies and multi-nationals locating to the region.

The Asia Pacific also achieved a strong increase in property investment volumes last year to US$158 billion, double the US$73 billion in 2009 and making the region the leading market (46 per cent of global transactions). Investment volume in the Asia Pacific region also overtook Europe for the first time. The global investment volume increased 76 per cent from US$194 billion in 2009 to US$342 billion last year.

DTZ is predicting a 9 per cent rise in global investment transaction volumes this year, largely on the back of continued recovery in Europe. However, the Asia Pacific is expected to see volumes flat lining.

'We expect that the government restrictions (on property transactions) in China will begin to take effect in 2011 ... and (there is) expected drop-off in activity in Japan following the earthquake,' said the report.

Ms Chua also addressed questions on Singapore's residential property market at DTZ's Money into Property Asia Pacific 2011 seminar yesterday. Quizzed on likely changes in Singapore's property market following the appointment of a new National Development Minister, she said: 'I think they will be reviewing all the Housing & Development Board policies; it's just a question of which ones will be changed and to what extent.'

She also noted the recovery in developers' private home sales volumes in March and April and high sales in the secondary market and argued that the new residential supply being pumped into the market could lead to a glut of completed homes in a few years. This would dampen prices and rentals - especially if interest rates rise and demand falls particularly if there is a slowdown in intake of new immigrants to Singapore.

Ms Chua reckons potential property cooling measures could include a further reduction in loan-to-value limit and an increase in the minimum cash downpayment on private home purchases by investors.

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

sabian

May 30th, 2011, 07:45 PM

y2koh

May 31st, 2011, 04:50 AM

Given the current situation, I guess property market experts feel that it is better to scare "little children" before the heated market goes out to control and really create the "perfect storm". Remember, these experts have investments on their own too, and of course if property market crashes their jobs and investments will be the first to suffer.

saigalt

May 31st, 2011, 05:35 AM

This kind of article is for scaring little children. SG property mkt will never crash...

My mama always told me 'never say never'!

pearl600

May 31st, 2011, 06:05 AM

i m from malaysia, and thinking of investing in properties overseas, which is not too far from malaysia, which countries would u recommend and why?

Arcachon

May 31st, 2011, 07:42 PM

i m from malaysia, and thinking of investing in properties overseas, which is not too far from malaysia, which countries would u recommend and why?

Now I know why Chinese nationals were the top foreign buyers of private property in Singapore. How can someone staying so close to Singapore need to think where to invest.:ohno:

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-05-25/news/29581920_1_private-property-housing-prices-property-market

Buyers from China accounted for a record 24 percent of private home purchases by non-Singaporeans in the three months to March 31, property research firm DTZ said in a report.

DBworker

June 3rd, 2011, 04:18 PM

Buyers from China accounted for a record 24 percent of private home purchases by non-Singaporeans in the three months to March 31, property research firm DTZ said in a report.

How much is foreign buyer ratio?

I read foreign properties are very affortable for chinese property owners in cities like beijng or shanghai. most of them controls multiple properties and creates wealth in millions and billions in light speed within few years. these people are best friends for asset bubbles and risk taker till death.

tahoo

June 4th, 2011, 03:44 PM

Arcachon

June 4th, 2011, 03:49 PM

Indeed, I can feel that increase of CPI specially in food cost. Simple minced meat noodle cost $4 at neighbor hawker center, up from $3. And what I got is more noodles:( is this a post election effect?

Beef noodle in France cost 6.5 Euro. Guess there is room for increase in Singapore.:ohno:

Aaronchong

June 6th, 2011, 05:36 AM

(SINGAPORE) It pays not to flip properties too frequently, according to a study of subsale transactions by Savills Singapore.

The average holding period of subsales in the first three months of 2011 increased to its longest in at least three years, while the average gain from profitable subsale deals in the quarter was also at its highest since Q3 2008.

Savills' study, which traced caveat matches to work out holding periods and gains or losses from subsales since Q1 2008, revealed that the average holding period for subsale transactions in Q1 2011 was 2.31 years.

This was longer than the 2.07 to 2.23 years average holding period for subsales in various quarters of last year and the longest since Q1 2008, when the average holding period for subsale deals was 1.64 years.

Some 97.4 per cent of matched subsales in Q1 2011 were profitable and, of these, the average gain per profitable subsale deal climbed to $315,043, surpassing the $283,498 to $289,004 for Q1-Q4 last year and the highest figure for any quarter since Q3 2008.

Steven Ming, executive director of investment sales at Savills Singapore, said: 'The bigger average gain from profitable subsale deals is in sync with the upbeat market sentiment, which has seen prices of non-landed private homes rebounding strongly from the trough in 2009 and even surpassing its previous peak in 2008.'

'The longer holding period for subsales transacted in Q1 2011 indicates that short-term speculation was stifled by the government's various cooling measures announced since February 2010, particularly the stringent seller's stamp duty introduced on Jan 13, 2011,' he added.

Indeed, there were no instances of units bought in Q1 this year and flipped within the same period.

'These results support (the view) that real estate should be a mid- to long-term investment rather than short-term speculation,' concludes Mr Ming.

The most profitable subsale in Q1 2011 yielded a profit of $3.44 million; it involved a ground-floor unit at Nassim Park Residences that was previously bought for around $12.1 million from the developer in June 2008 and sold in March 2011 for $15.56 million. The biggest subsale loss, of $723,200, was for an apartment at The Orchard Residences.

Subsales, often used as a proxy of speculative activity, refer to secondary-market deals in projects that have yet to receive a Certificate of Statutory Completion and where property titles for units sold have yet to be transferred to buyers.

'Transaction volume in the subsale market is expected to moderate over the next 24 months and the average holding period (lengthen), following the imposition of steep seller's stamp duty (SSD), which compels any real estate investor to think mid- to longer-term to ride out the four-year SSD period to reduce costs,' said Mr Ming.

Savills' analysis showed that the average subsale gain for profitable deals was highest at $445,313 in Q1 2008 - during the heyday of the previous property boom when anecdotal evidence of people flipping properties within a short period for handsome returns was not uncommon. Back then, 98.2 per cent of all subsales made money and the average holding period for subsale deals was just 1.64 years.

Then came Lehman's collapse and during the low point of the property market in Q1 2009, only 67.5 per cent of subsales were in the black while their average gain sank to $105,663. From that point, the proportion of profitable subsales quickly began to recover, reaching 90.7 per cent in Q3 2009, 97.5 per cent in Q4 2010 and 97.4 per cent in Q1 2011.

Savills examined URA Realis caveats data for subsale deals and tried to find previous caveat records for the same units; where it found matches, it worked out the holding period for the subsales and the profit or loss. The latter was calculated as the difference between sale and purchase prices, without taking into account agent fees, stamp duties and other expenses.

For instance, of the total 584 caveats for subsales of private condos or apartments in Q1 2011, Savills found previous caveat records for 506 units, of which 493 (or 97.4 per cent) made gains and 13 made losses.
The projects with the most subsale caveat matches in Q1 2011 were Livia in Pasir Ris and Double Bay Residences in Simei - with 24 and 22 deals respectively, all profitable.

Savills said subsale interest in these two projects was probably fuelled by recent launches in the respective locations such as NV Residences and My Manhattan, given that the average price in the subsale market is relatively lower than that for new launches.

As for 2010, the projects with most subsale matches were The Parc Condominium in West Coast (150 units), One Amber (132), Caspian in the Jurong Lake area (93), Marina Bay Residences (75) andSky@Eleven (63).

Some of these projects were completed last year, and it is often around this time that a flurry of subsale activity occurs as projects then have added appeal to buyers seeking properties that they can move into or rent out soon.
But Savills noted that even projects which are slated for completion around 2013 such as Caspian and Kovan Residences were active in the subsale market last year.

'Matched results showed that most units in these mass-market projects made gains through subsales, riding on the strong price growth in the mass-market segment,' Savills observed.

Aaronchong

June 6th, 2011, 05:44 AM

An analysis of subsale transactions by Savills Singapore has shed light on the sort of short-term property speculation in the Singapore non-landed private housing market last year that culminated in the government announcing a punitive seller’s stamp duty regime.

http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u234/aaronchong/2011-06-06-subsale2.jpg

At least 20 units were bought last year and flipped within days. They involved mostly smallish apartments in projects such as Dorsett Residences at New Bridge Road, Suites@Topaz in the Serangoon-Moonstone Lane area, Centra Suites in Geylang, Haig 162, One Amber, The Shore Residences and Suites@Shrewsbury. Profits generated by these 20 units which changed hands within 29 days ranged from $5,000 to $188,000, translating to returns of 0.6 per cent to 27.6 per cent.

In all, there were 111 subsales of private apartments and condos in 2010 which had previously changed hands in the same year. All of these transactions were profitable. Gains ranged from $5,000 to $2.08 million per subsale transaction.

The latter was recorded for a 3,907 square foot unit at Urban Suites near Cairnhill Road which was bought in late January 2010 for $8.81 million from the project’s developer and flipped in early March for $10.89 million. The smallest gain of $5,000 was for a 926 sq ft unit at Waterview in Tampines which involved a 10-day holding period.

Savills Singapore traced caveats for subsale transactions for private apartments and condos against previous caveats for the same units. It found earlier matching caveat records for 86.7 per cent or 2,917 of the 3,365 total caveats lodged for subsales of private apartments and condos last year.

The 111 units subsold last year which had been previously transacted within the same year made up 3.8 per cent of the 2,917 total subsales that Savills matched for the whole of 2010.

And the 20 units flipped within days of being purchased in 2010 accounted for 0.7 per cent of total subsale matches last year.

The punitive seller’s stamp duty (SSD) regime that the government unleashed on Jan 13 this year has had an impact on cooling property speculation. Savills’ analysis revealed that none of the subsales in Q1 2011 involved units which had been bought within the same period.

Analysts say that it would be challenging for speculators now to buy a private home and flip it within a year given the higher hurdle to break even following the introduction of the 16 per cent SSD for those who buy a private home after Jan 13 and sell it within a year.

Foo Suan Peng, managing director of investment sales at Knight Frank, said: ‘The property’s price would have to move up at least 20 per cent for the investor to break even (comprising 16 per cent SSD if the property is held for a year or less; 3 per cent buyer’s stamp duty; and one per cent for other costs).

‘These investors might as well hold on to their properties till next year before they flip, by which time the SSD rate would be 12 per cent.’

Savills’ analysis showed that in Q1 2011, there were 22 subsales which yielded gains exceeding $1 million each, of which six cases reflected gains exceeding $2 million each – in projects such as Marina Bay Residences, The Trillium (two units), Belle Vue Residences, Nassim Park Residences and One Amber. The 22 subsales involved units which had been previously transacted in 2006-2009 and made up 4.3 per cent of the 506 subsale matches Savills traced in Q1.

Last year, there were 92 subsales (or 3.1 per cent of 2,917 subsale matches in the period) which produced a profit of over $1 million each. These included 14 deals with gains surpassing $2 million apiece, nine of which were at Marina Bay Residences.

Last year’s most profitable subsale deal (in absolute terms) generated a gain of $3.3 million; it involved a unit at Marina Bay Residences which had been previously bought for $4.97 million in January 2007 and subsold for about $8.29 million in April 2010.

In Q1 2011, the most profitable subsale deal (in absolute terms) generated a profit of $3.44 million, on a ground floor unit at Nassim Park Residences previously bought for around $12.1 million from the developer in June 2008 and sold in March 2011 for $15.56 million.

In percentage terms, Q1 2011′s most profitable subsale yielded a 167.4 per cent return – on a unit at SouthBank at North Bridge Road that had been bought from the developer in June 2006 for $561,000 and sold in the subsale market in January 2011 for $1.5 million.

The majority or 69.4 per cent of the 506 matched subsale deals in Q1 this year involved units previously bought in 2007 or 2009. It was a similar trend last year, when 73.8 per cent of the 2,917 matched subsales involved units previously purchased in 2007 or 2009.

sabian

June 8th, 2011, 11:59 AM

Far East wins yet another plot in Parkway area. Now they will really set the tone for the psf in the area.

love laguna

June 9th, 2011, 04:01 AM

Far East wins yet another plot in Parkway area. Now they will really set the tone for the psf in the area.

They are buying up all the properties around Amber Road.
There must be something in the air

Minority

June 9th, 2011, 04:18 AM

New condos command fat premiums

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2011-06-09/krland9.jpg

Prices of condos at recent Govt Land Sale sites generally higher than at nearby developments

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) Despite the record supply of state land, launch prices of new 99-year condos continue to climb, spurred by strong demand.

A study by DTZ shows that median prices of new 99-year leasehold condos launched in 2010 and 2011 on sites sold at Government Land Sale (GLS) tenders have generally been 8-35 per cent higher than those of comparable nearby condos released earlier.

Wing Tai recently launched Foresque Residences at Petir Road at an average price said to be about $1,100 per square foot (psf) - or 32 per cent higher than the median price for units at Tree House next door in the preceding three-month period. In February, Chip Eng Seng released My Manhattan in Simei for $1,219 psf median price - or 42 per cent higher than the $856 psf per plot ratio (ppr) median price of the Double Bay Residences nearby.

Last November, Keppel Land released The Lakefront Residences in Jurong at a median price of $1,075 psf, about 35 per cent higher than the median price for the neighbouring Caspian project over the previous three months.

DTZ's SE Asia research head Chua Chor Hoon noted that 'developments with fewer units and/or smaller units tend to have higher per square foot prices'. For instance, at Petir Road, Foresque Residences has one- to four-bedroom units whereas the next-door Tree House has two bedrooms and upwards. In Simei, My Manhattan has 301 units, half the 646 units at Double Bay Residences.

DTZ's COO and head of consulting and research for SE Asia Ong Choon Fah notes that, generally, developers have been incorporating more one-bedders and even slightly smaller one- and two-bedders in some instances compared to earlier projects. By keeping the lump-sum prices affordable, they have been able to achieve higher psf prices.

Also, units in new property launches are sold on the progressive payment scheme, which means buyers do not draw down the entire housing loan immediately. This leaves them more willing to pay a higher psf price for a new launch than for an older project nearby for which they would have to pay up the full price in a short time. 'Concerted efforts by developers to market new launches also create an emotive appeal to buyers which would be missing when one shops for an older property in the secondary market,' Mrs Ong added.

Analysts note that since last year, the government has been releasing more 99-year condo sites near projects that have sold like hot cakes in a bid to cool the market. However, strong demand for new projects from owner occupiers as well as investors keen on a hedge against inflation has been depleting land banks of developers, leading them to bid competitively for land at state tenders. This has translated to higher prices when they launch new projects.

As Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui says: 'Many of us who have been burnt in the financial markets feel property is a more reliable, long-term investment. Cash-flush investors also see property as a desirable investment.

'For a family that has been aspiring for years to upgrade to private property, the conditions seem favourable: the job market and the economy are good, interest rates are low.

'It's difficult for policymakers to discourage people from buying property under these circumstances.'

Mr Ong also suggests: 'Releasing more land now to try and slow down end-unit take-up doesn't work, because when people are in a buying mood, numbers on future supply aren't going to deter them.'

For now, developers continue to bid for land, and prices have gone up, even for average sites. A 99-year condo site at Buangkok Drive fetched a top bid of $391 psf ppr in June, or 22 per cent higher than the $320 psf ppr that an Upper Serangoon View plot sold for last November.

This week, a Woodlands Avenue 2 plot sold for $367 psf ppr, 10 per cent more than what a neighbouring site fetched last November.

DTZ's Ms Chua expects developers to continue to bid for 99-year sites as many have a small land bank and need to replenish fast, especially since the time to launch a project is now shorter.

'With many developers in the market, including some new foreign players, they need to bid competitively to win tenders, especially for well-located sites. And due to high land prices, developers will continue to build smaller units as there is more demand for units below $1.5 million.'

Analysts warn about a potential glut when all the units being sold at property launches are completed - if there are no occupiers for a large number of these units, and the completions coincide with an economic downturn. A slowdown in the rate of immigration will also affect demand. 'There are so many variables that affect the equation. At the end of the day, people have to be mindful and buy within their means,' advises Mrs Ong.

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

kopiluver

June 11th, 2011, 07:24 AM

'Even a broken clock is right twice a day'

I am just lucky. (quote I stolen from VERU. Thank you big brother. Tell Modi to drink with us soon.)

I intend to stop posting my view from now onward. Private message me if you have anything to share with me.

I intend to retire (or semi-retire) by the end of June 2011. :)

Take care guys.

Yo, long time no see. Pls sms me if u guys meetup for drinks! Anyone interested in a potluck gathering? Each bring a type of food or drinks for more than one can eat?

stingraytan

June 19th, 2011, 08:53 PM

too many people on holiday to reply. :)

Minority

June 29th, 2011, 01:57 AM

all gone to the other forum

LittlePig

June 29th, 2011, 02:51 AM

which other forum?

Alan Shearer

June 29th, 2011, 11:42 AM

the green one

Arcachon

June 29th, 2011, 09:32 PM

your mean http://www.myhometown.sg/

newbie11

June 30th, 2011, 10:13 AM

http://forums.condosingapore.com/

Arcachon

July 2nd, 2011, 02:52 PM

Anyone want to guess, the prices fall or rise 7 consecutive quarter.

Increase in private property prices falls for 7th consecutive quarter

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20110701-287056.html

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-qwXCjJ96HUc/Tg8XFgutjlI/AAAAAAAAGMs/VJ2vLjZFNnc/s800/1Q11.JPG

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2011/pr11-87.html

1 July 2011

Rate of increase of private residential property prices falls further in 2nd quarter 2011

According to URA's flash estimate of the private residential property index for 2nd Quarter 2011, the rate of increase in private residential property prices has fallen for the 7th consecutive quarter since 4th Quarter 2009.

Based on the flash estimate, prices rose from 199.1 points in 1st Quarter 2011 to 202.8 points in 2nd Quarter 2011. This represents an increase of 1.9%, compared with 2.2% in the previous quarter (see Annex A).

Prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 1.6% in Core Central Region and Outside Central Region, and 1.2% in Rest of Central Region in the quarter (see Annex B). In comparison, in 1st Quarter 2011, prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 1.1% in Core Central Region, 2.0% in Rest of Central Region and 3.1% in Outside Central Region.

The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold. The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 2nd Quarter 2011 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.

Arcachon

July 2nd, 2011, 03:10 PM

Quote from MND

"I have been in MND for 5 weeks, and not sleeping well. I am working my guts out to try to calm the market, for the good of all Singaporeans.

But I can’t do it alone. I need all to help.

HDB architects are working round the clock to ramp up BTO supply. Contractors are building up capacity to deliver the flats on time. HDB is setting BTO prices carefully to help guide the market.

I hope our media can do their part too. There is some panic buying out there, by people worried that prices will continue to rise. Sensationalised articles will merely feed the frenzy.

If only BT had verified the facts, the misleading article could have been avoided. Please help to circulate this blog to your friends."

http://mndsingapore.wordpress.com/

Arcachon

July 2nd, 2011, 03:25 PM

Supply and Demand

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-DF0gdJscKTo/Tg8fM0qf0AI/AAAAAAAAGNI/U3k8V7LgxX8/s800/hdb%252520graph%252520010711.JPG

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-lFq1HkWYBIE/Tg8cMB66IoI/AAAAAAAAGM8/lmo8rNKGCJY/s800/hdb%252520010711.JPG

saigalt

July 8th, 2011, 06:06 AM

So is there any point in remaining logged into this forum ? Or has it died a natural death .

Arcachon

July 8th, 2011, 06:55 PM

There is always up and down cycle. Everyone have to try to give his/her five cents worth of idea and I think the forum will still have life.

I enjoy reading all the posting and learn lots of five cent and ten cent idea and hope to give back.

http://youtu.be/HE6nT0oyPt8

Who is Russ Whitney?

http://youtu.be/BYNO6146arM

http://youtu.be/njE7I4eyWMY

Arcachon

July 8th, 2011, 07:14 PM

Napoleon Hill - How To Get Rich Via The Law Of Attraction

http://youtu.be/TQ0hHIQIr_E

Arcachon

July 9th, 2011, 08:14 PM

Minority

July 10th, 2011, 09:31 AM

-At today’s low rates (roughly 4.5% on a 30 year fixed), the P&I payment on a $335,000 mortgage would be
$1697/month.

-Now, hypothetically, assume interest go up to 6.5% (which is an estimate of where many “experts” project they’ll settle when they do finally begin to rise-baring any hyperinflation scenarios, of course). At 6.5%, the P&I payment on $269,000 is $1,700/month. WOW!

So, let me get this straight, a person that can qualify for a P&I payment of $1700, could buy now (at today’s low rates) and borrow $335,000, or wait-on the expectation that home values will come down more-while interest rates rise,
and only be able to borrow $269,000. Buying now would allow them to borrow $66,000 MORE for the exact same
payment! WOW, again! "ShamWOW" even....

http://www.facebook.com/notes/dj-gardner-utah-mortgage-expert/why-interest-rates-matter-more-than-home-valuesor-do-they/210956578940921

can i ask a simple question. On the interest. with the 4% to 6.5% wat is the total cost of diff purchasing the hse with interest for 30yrs between the 2 interest? Assuming the amount loan is the same 300K

I guess also the key question is how much will the hs price drop when int is 6.5%. if it drop 20% or if it crash 30-40%...

The thing is the total cost of ownership at the end of 30yrs... focusing on the per mth quantum only as calculation is actually dangerous.