After the finance Bill implementing the budget reforms goes through the Dáil, most probrably at the start of March, the General Election should be called. I find it curious that the Green Party called for an election in January and yet must have known the bill would not be passed by then. Another attempt by them to hoodwink the public. They won't exist after this election at least not in the Dáil. I suspect not a single Green Party member will get re-elected - punishment for what the public rightly sees as the party who kept Fianna Fáil in power for this long against the wishes of the electorate in opinion poll after opinion poll.


So assuming the election will be in March here is my thoughts on each party


Labour Party - will do well but not nearly as well as their deluded footsoldiers think. You can only waffle and orate for so long and then you actually have to produce policies.

Fine Gael - will lead the next Government and do better then many expect. They actually have policies and a refreshing youthful frontbench may be attractive to a General public fed up with the old cronies in FF and even the Labour Party. Their only downside is their leader which the public don't like.

Green Party - Annilalation. Simple as that. It's kind of cruel that they played no role in landing the country where it is but they dug themselves a massive hole by not pulling out of Government at the beginning of 2010. Now they find themselves in the situation of having propped up FF:ohno:

Fianna Fáil - will probrably do better then most expect thanks to it's core vote of around 20%. However by it's standards it is heading for a historic meltdown. Unlike the Greens it will survive though.

Sinn Féin - the perennial no hopers will gain some seats - but they will be as irrelevant as they have always been - as much as a fly on a windowsill.

Others - not even gonna comment on the loons in this section, hard left socialist types that will hardly get a seat. A few independents will be elected though. Increased by the inevitable protest vote.


(edit: sorry for saying 2010 in the title!)

Labour Party - will do well but not nearly as well as their deluded footsoldiers think. You can only waffle and orate for so long and then you actually have to produce policies.


Have to say I disagree with your analysis of the Labour party!!!

I'm so fed up of this stuff the media spouts out. The usual crap thrown at Labour candidates when they appear on your typical tv show. Pat Kenny, Miriam and co with their private limited company tax rate never seem to ask FF and FG what their policies are though...

Being in favour of universal healthcare (an idea fg have hijacked), removing the patronage of the respective churches from national schools, being in favour of gay marriage instead of the current Civil Partnership laws, calling for a constitutional review, promoting greater female participation in politics and fighting for a more just and equitable society are policies as well... Ireland isn't an economy, it's a society!!!


Also, no policies on economic/fiscal issues???

1. Taking €2-5billion from the Pension Reserve Fund to invest in infrastructure projects, thus actually helping to create jobs instead of loosing them on a constant basis!!!

2. Introducing a 48% tax rate for earnings over 100k, bringing in an additional €500million a year.

3. A progressive tax system for Capital Gains Tax and Capital Acquisitions Tax, hence increasing the revenues earned from it by €500million PA. This instead of the much reduced tax rate brought in by McCreevy!

4. Increasing the D.I.R.T tax by 2 percentage points.

5. Cutting the €500million offered to build the A5 north of the border.

6. Abolishing property tax relief scheme for developers, worth an estimated €2billion.

7. Abolishing pension relief schemes for the rich, and taxing pensions that are worth crazy amounts. This is estimated to be worth €1-2billion.

8. PRSI relief for employers.

9. Abolishing the Seanad/Senate, as seen in the papers today.


10. Cutting Public Sector Wages at the highest levels (incl. President and Taoiseach) bringing them down to a max of around €200k.

11. Pooling ministerial cars and reducing the number of Junior ministers.

12. Cutting parliamentary wages while increasing the number of days the parliament sits.

13. Reducing administrative costs in the public services by implementing simple measures; for example making dole payments twice monthly, and paid electronically rather than via the post office. (cents make euros after all)


In addition to this Labour is open to ideas like
: Unpaid holidays in the PS... e.g. two weeks per year!!
: making Child Benefit payments equal for all children instead of increasing it for 3rd and subsequent children.
: Taxing Child Benefit for the rich.
: Selling some state assets.
: Introducing water rates


Just because Labour doesn't want to increase taxes for the poor, reduce the minimum wage and cut education spending doesn't mean they have no policies.
Labour is after all the party that introduced free third-level education for all, oversaw the country during its highest period of economic growth and governed during the period in which most jobs were ever created, on a weekly-basis, in the state.
An economy that was based on real export-led growth, not the false economy hyped up and created by FF post 2002!!!

I might also add that Labour were the only one of the big three opposed to the current banking guarantees that have paralysed the country.
I guess FG and Labour should be thankful to FF for screwing over the middles-classes and the poor; it'll make future budgets that tiny bit less difficult.

The sooner the Irish electorate get over their me, me, me attittude the better. While I'm fortunate enough to come from a wealthy background, perhaps growing up in Norway has made me rather idealistic for the greater good!

Liking these Eamon Gilmore quotes from the party Ard Fheis last year:

Ninety two years ago, Labour stood aside, so that our country could be freed and made independent from a foreign power. Today, Labour steps forward, now ready to lead, so that Ireland can be liberated again, this time from the treachery of the insiders who have squandered our prosperity, wasted our opportunities and put our futures at risk.

One Ireland!

One Ireland. Of Women and men. Old and Young. Gay and straight. All equal.

One Ireland. Of Employers and employees. Farmers and business people. Private sector and public sector. Working in the home and volunteering in the community. We all make our contribution and we should all be treated fairly. Giving according to our means. Receiving according to our needs.

One Ireland. Of different nationalities, of diverse religions and of no religion. It does not matter whence we came or when we came. Ireland is our common homeland now. The land for all our children.

One Ireland. An Ireland of equals.

Two simple words. The mission of the Labour Party. The end and the means. Le chéile. One Ireland.

Thank You.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1216/breaking10.html

The opinion polls seem to differ with you Odlum. Although gut feelings informs me that the FF machine isn't broke. They might have broke the state, but they ain't broke.http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1231/1224286542561.html.
Your analysis may be right.

This is a year for change for the State. Its feasible that within a years time we will see

a. A Labour/Fine Gael government with a liberal progressive agenda.

b. Fine Gael and Labour recorded their best ever electoral performances and Fianna Fail their worst.

c. A President who is gay.

d. Abolition of the Senead.

No 1 - A Fine Gael/Labour coalition - yes

No 2 - I disagree - during the Haughey era in the 80's when there was an election basically every few months Fine Gael got big totals, nearly 80 seats. Labour got a large number in the early 90's aswell. I actually think they won't get historically good results but yes they will comfortably have an overall majority.

No 3 - maybe

No 4 - yes

^^
While I disagreed with your view on Labour, I suspect you're not far off the mark in terms of outcomes.
If I were to hazzard a guess I reckon the outcome may even see FF back as the second largest party:bash:

Also, meant to challenge the notion FG will offer us a young front bench... From my personal reading of things, Enda dislikes Leo, Simon, Brian and Lucinda a great deal. I've encountered them all at numerous different events and the youngun's don't interact with Enda whatsover. The frosty relationship is very definitely palpable; expect Leo and co to be shoved to junior ministeries.
Enda will be flanked by the fat, elderly 60+ bogger men who supported him during the coup!!!

A. Yes. However, with that embarrassment of a man (Enda Kenny) as Taoiseach we won't see too much of a liberal agenda!!!

B. Labour will record their best ever result, but will not perform as well as expected. Fine Gael will get around 32-35% and gain 60-70seats.

C. I assume you're reffering to David Norris... I'd like to see him as president, but fear smear campaigns will damage his chances.

D. Hopefully not. While Labour are now supporting its abolition, I think such a measure is completely ridiculous.

FF will take a kicking but still be the 2nd largest party. I also predict they will have a new leader before the General Election. There is no way Brian Cowen is going to lead them into a General Election. That would be suicidal.

I did say possibly so. I wouldn't expect Norris to be President. And I wouldnt be surprised and depressed if FF is revived before the vote.

The real fun will be trying to square a government divided between the Democratic Left old boys, Enda's suntan sunbeams and all the rainspots trying to unseat yer man.

New poll shows continued Fianna Fáil slide

Updated: 22:08, Friday, 7 January 2011

A new opinion poll shows Fine Gael extending its lead over the Labour Party with a continued slide in the fortunes of Fianna Fáil.



The first political opinion poll of the New Year shows Fine Gael extending its lead over the Labour Party with a continued slide in the fortunes of Fianna Fáil.

In the Red C poll carried out for Paddy Power bookmakers, Fine Gael stands at 35% compared with 34% in a similar poll by the same company for the Sunday Business Post last month.

Labour stands at 21% against 23% in the earlier poll. Fianna Fáil has fallen from 17% to 14%. Sinn Féin is also at 14% - unchanged from December's figure.

Independents and others stand at 12% up two, while the Green Party is also up two to 4%.

RTE

Front page of yesterdays Sunday Times was interesting in which it was revealed that Brian Cowen played a round of golf with Sean Fitzpatrick, former head of Anglo Irish Bank, just before the blanket bank guarantee was given.






FORMER CHIEF OF Anglo Irish Bank Sean FitzPatrick has revealed that he played golf and had dinner with Brian Cowen just two months before the state introduced the bank guarantee scheme in 2008.

The Sunday Times reveals that the then finance minister met with FitzPatrick in July 20o8 and also spoke to him over the phone in March 2008, at which point he was informed that there was an issue with the bank shares held by Seán Quinn. The taosieach has confirmed both contacts.

thejournal.ie


Rumour mill spinning again but this time there seems to be more substance.

See here.


http://www.politics.ie/fianna-fail/147703-conor-lenihans-pa-says-cowen-will-ousted-taoiseach-end-week.html


It seems inconcievable to me that the small issue of impending doom at the bank was not bought up between the two men at some stage during one of these functions. It's just rediculous that we are expected to believe that. A very interesting week ahead!

Speculation mounts over Cowen's leadership

Updated: 12:29, Thursday, 13 January 2011

Speculation is mounting in Leinster House that Brian Cowen's position as Fianna Fáil leader is under imminent threat.

Speculation is mounting in Leinster House that Brian Cowen's position as leader of Fianna Fáil is under imminent threat.

A meeting of the Fianna Fail parliamentary party that was due to take place this morning has been put off until 3pm.

There was speculation around Leinster House this morning that the meeting would consider Brian Cowen's leadership.

Asked whether a no confidence motion might be tabled, one senior minister told RTÉ 'that may well happen'.

RTÉ Political Correspondent David Davin-Power says some of Mr Cowen's supporters are now conceding that he has been seriously weakened by the revelations of his contacts with former Anglo Irish bank boss Sean Fitzpatrick.

The Taoiseach yesterday told the Dáil his side of the controversy over the previously undisclosed contacts.

The only new information to emerge was that after playing golf with Mr FitzPatrick and his friend Fintan Drury, a number of other people joined them for dinner.

They were Mr Cowen's garda driver, businessman Gary McGann, who was then a member of the Anglo board and Alan Gray, who had been appointed to the Central Bank board by Mr Cowen in 2007.

Mr Cowen said they had not discussed bank matters and again rejected suggestions that he acted improperly.

However the opposition said the disclosure had left his credibility damaged.

One of the participants in the dinner involving the Taoiseach and Mr FitzPatrick has said the affairs of the bank were not discussed at the meal.

In a statement last night, economist Alan Gray confirmed he attended the dinner in Druids Glen Golf Club in July 2008.

Mr Gray, who did not play golf, said the purpose of the invitation was to provide independent ideas to stimulate economic growth and reduce unemployment.

RTE

In other news, Labour have launched a new website.

http://www.labour.ie/

A vast improvement on the last one.

Despite speculation Lenihan will declare for Cowen tomorrow the coup still seems on.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0117/politics.html


Mary Hanafin also refused to back the embattled Taoiseach this evening.

She refused to declare her intentions on RTE's Frontline programme saying it was not the appropriate forum.

However, she confirmed that if Brian Cowen lost the motion, she would put her name forward for the leadership.


I think Cowen will win by a slim majority.


There will be some sackings/resignations tomorrow evening.

BTW anyone see the Independent on the Frontline tonight running in the Dún Laoghaire constituency....


http://images-mediawiki-sites.thefullwiki.org/11/6/3/2/6949711424451073.jpg

http://irishelectionliterature.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/vboyhan09a.jpg

Biffo stays.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0118/politics.html

The votes have been curiously shredded. A cute analogy if ever...............



Odlum I feel sorry for the truck that hit yer Boyhan fella above.

Micheal Martin is the only one to come out of this with any credit. Lenihan will never be FF leader now after shafting the back benchers so publicly. Mary Hanafin has been shown up as a duplicitous back stabber. Why is she in the cabinet when Martin has resigned? She did the exact same thing. Too chicken to come out and say it publicly. She should be sacked.

Overall FF have not only managed to secure a savage beating at the election but somehow they have made their posistion even worse! - I did not think that was even possible.


Brian Cowen not only has something like 8% support amongst the public - he now has minority support in the Dáil. Does not really matter anyway. Irish Times cartoon sums it up.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/images/2011/0119/267805_1.jpg

5 ministers resign from Cabinet

Updated: 10:38, Thursday, 20 January 2011



Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey has said Taoiseach Brian Cowen indicated several weeks ago that there would be a Cabinet reshuffle.

Four Ministers - Noel Dempsey, Mary Harney, Dermot Ahern and Tony Killeen - tendered their resignations from Cabinet last night.

Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Innovation Batt O'Keeffe is expected to resign this morning.

Watch Dáil proceedings live

All five ministers will not contest the next General Election.

Former Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin resigned his portfolio on Tuesday after the confidence motion in Brian Cowen's leadership.

Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Dempsey said he was aware there would Cabinet changes before the General Election was called.

Mr Dempsey added: 'If it's not done today, it couldn't be done until the Dáil reassembles next week and I don't see any reason to delay at this time.

'I think the Taoiseach has made a decision that it is in the best interest of the country to have new people in place to refresh the Government even for the last number of months.'

A Government spokesman said it was more likely that the posts would be filled by new appointments as opposed to ministers taking on extra portfolios.

Some of the Fianna Fáil TDs tipped for promotion include Dara Calleary, Peter Power and Barry Andrews.

Green Party leader John Gormley said yesterday that his party would have to be consulted about any Cabinet reshuffle.

The Taoiseach and Mr Gormley have spoken this morning about the Cabinet vacancies.

It is understood that the Green Party leader will speak to his party colleagues about the issue later today.

Gogarty opposes 'jobs for the boys' reshuffle

However, Green Party TD Paul Gogarty said the resignations 'smack of an orchestrated plan' and 'have more to do with Fianna Fáil interests' than the country's interest.

In a statement on his website this morning, he said he hoped the Taoiseach would refuse to accept the resignations.

He added: 'Appointing five new Ministers at this critical juncture would smack of jobs for the boys and cosmetic surgery for endangered candidates in need of a makeover.

'To do so would show a serious lack of political judgement, a lack of empathy for what the people of Ireland are going through and of course may have unintended consequences.'

Fine Gael said the latest resignations highlight the need for an immediate General Election.

However, the party's health spokesman Dr James Reilly said Ms Harney's resignation 'signals the end of a long and often illustrious career'.

Dr Reilly said: 'Her legacy will be ridding Dublin of a serious smog problem that gave rise to enormous health benefits to the people of the nation's capital.

'Sadly her tenure in the Department of Health was not what it could have been.'

Sinn Féin TD Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin was less complimentary and said her resignation would be 'widely welcomed'.

He said: 'Mary Harney is resigning as Minister not for the good of the nation's health, but to facilitate a cynical Cabinet reshuffle for electoral purposes.'

Mr Ó Caoláin the reshuffle was a 'blatant Fianna Fáil stroke that treats the electorate with contempt'.

Labour Party Health Spokesperson Jan O'Sullivan said the resignations are 'an act of unparallel political cynicism on the part of the Taoiseach'.

She said: 'This act of deathbed political jobbery is likely to rebound on Mr Cowen and Fianna Fáil.'

Fianna Fáil TD for Cork East Ned O'Keeffe has said he is not in favour of appointments to Cabinet at this stage. He said it would be 'a cynical stroke'.

Fianna Fáil TD for Dublin North Michael Kennedy has also criticised the proposed appointment of new Ministers.

He said: 'I have to say the general public will see this as a cynical move and it will do nothing to enhance the good name of politics.'

RTE

Complete disintegration. Call an election ffs.

Surely there is a "Downfall" You Tube for all of this.

It has that "down in the bunker" moment.

Got sent this today in a circular from a friend in the Labour Party. That and something about the NHS, the IT system being renovated between 2am and 4am on Friday, contracts in Peru and Germany, plus trams to Chester.


"At last we know. Two hours ago, it was announced that the Election will be held on Friday 11th March - 50 days from now.

"So, now its up to us. We have 50 days to bring real change to our country. To elect a Government that will go to work on behalf of the Irish people.

Ireland has many difficulties, but our capacities are far greater than our problems. This is a great country, and our people are more than equal to the tasks we face. Of building a better future for our children. Of ensuring that our best days are still to come.

From today, we have 50 days to make sure that the energy and commitment and patriotism and sheer gut decency of the Irish people, can be unleashed again.

We have 50 days to rid ourselves of cronyism and insider Government.

We have 50 days to elect a Government that will go to work every day to create jobs and build a sustainable economic recovery. To re-negotiate the IMF deal, and give Ireland a decent chance of recovery.

We have 50 days to do what has never been done before - to elect a Labour-led Government. A Government of One Ireland, that is driven by the concerns of the many, not the insider-few.

We have 50 days to bring about real change, and its up to us - all of us. I am writing to ask you to join with me in leading this movement for change. At the end of these 50 days, let each of us be able to say that we played our part to the full.

Now is the time. The time to take our country back.



Eamon Gilmore"

A circus is the only way to describe events this week. Really extraordinary stuff.


Today the Green Party are deciding whether to leave Government. A press conference will take place shortly. Be interesting to see if they go immediately or give until Friday to get the Finance Bill passed. The opposition say they will leave their motion of no confidence in place for Tuesday if they don't have a deadline for Friday.


I don't think the numbers stack up for the Government now and one way or another I expect Brian Cowen to be visiting the President before the end of the coming week seeking dissolution.

DAVID CAMERON has gleefully told the House of Commons that Gerry Adams is no longer a member of the UK’s lower house of parliament – because he has been appointed Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.

Speaking in the House of Commons earlier today, Cameron confirmed that the absence of any formal way for an MP to resign their office meant Adams would be forced to apply for a particular job under the Crown in order to vacate his seat.

Becoming an employee of the Crown means a person is not entitled to be a member of parliament.

Adams – who had stated his desire to stand down as an MP so as to underline his intentions of becoming a full-time TD for Louth after the next general election in the Republic of Ireland – was therefore required to seek the position under the Crown so as to formally lose his position.

Though a Sinn Féin spokesperson yesterday told TheJournal.ie that the party did not adhere to the “traditional” British rules – and that the party considered him to already have resigned – it now appears that Adams has bowed to convention and sought the UK position in order to completely copperfasten his status as an ex-MP.

It was confirmed in the House of Commons today, though, that Adams been appointed to the position – meaning he must have written to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, to seek appointment to the position.

The position of Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead has been used as a procedural device to allow MPs quit Westminster since the 1840s.

The Manor of Northstead itself is a former collection of fields near Scarborough in North Yorkshire. Perhaps ironically, Adams succeeds the DUP’s Iris Robinson, who resigned as an MP in January 2010.

Adams retains the title until another MP seeks to resign. British law does not provide for a maximum period of time within which his former seat – that of West Belfast – must be filled.


"Gerry Adams, Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead" to run for the Dáil - lol! Will that be the name on the ballot paper:lol:

Both Fine Gael and Labour formally launched their campaigns on Sunday.

Fine Gael press release (http://www.finegael2011.com/pressreleases.asp?artId=5B5F):


Speech to all Fine Gael Candidates, Sunday 30th January 2011, the Mansion House, Dublin

It’s my great pleasure to welcome the Fine Gael team for the 2011 General Election here to the Mansion House.

One hundred and two proud and committed men and women. Proud and committed.

And also ready.

Ready to stand for our people, our communities and our country. Ready to fight and win this election.

And above all, ready to Get Ireland Working.

That’s why we’re here today. That’s why we’re standing for election. Not for ourselves. Or for the Party. But for our people and our country.

That’s why I will never apologise for using the international network and respect that Fine Gael has built over many decades to further our national interests. That’s why Michael Noonan and I went to Brussels on Friday to signal our intent to renegotiate the bailout deal.

That’s why, unlike others who have abandoned our cause, I will never throw in the towel when it comes for fighting for fair treatment for Ireland. Today, many of our people feel betrayed. They’re losing jobs, hopes, sense of self. In yet another generation, Irish parents are losing their children to emigration. Today, for too many people, the flow of life has stopped. They have no job, no money to pay for the mortgage or bills. Or, if they do have a job, but thanks to the Government’s rescue remedy - penal taxes - they still have little money to pay for the mortgage or bills.

And no Minister Lenihan, they did not all party.

I met a man this week. He and his wife are both graduates. They were hard workers, good earners. Both now without jobs. Last year they made a donation to St Vincent de Paul, as they did every year.

The day I met him, he was waiting for his local Vincent de Paul Conference to come over on a visitation. They come at night. Under cover of darkness to keep people’s dignity. Maybe Fianna Fail’s coming period in the dark might teach them such lessons of dignity and compassion.

That man’s story is replicated in every corner of Ireland. And it’s up to us, through our plan, through our example, through our new government, to rescue people from that savage indignity.

No wonder people are angry. But that anger, proper and real as it is, won’t get Ireland working. That’s why, in this election, we’re giving people the chance to turn their anger into action.

We’re saying, please come and work with us, come and vote for us because we have a plan to Get Ireland Working.

It’s been worked on for over three years. It’s a sensible plan, a realistic plan, to get people working, to get systems working, to get government working.

Right now, public Ireland, is not working. In personal and private Ireland, if they’re lucky enough to still have a job, people are working harder than ever. Putting in the grind. Coming up with plans.

Have our entrepreneurs run out of ideas? No. They’re full of them. More brilliant than ever. Your young people are more eager than ever to live and work in their own country.

The trouble is, while our Ministers are double jobbing, even treble jobbing, the Government just isn’t working. The systems that people depend on are not working. Or if they are, they’re just not working for the people.

With our plan to get Ireland Working we’ll change that.

Our five-point plan is like a five-pointed star. The one on our logo.

It gives clarity, light and direction to what will be a difficult journey to a better future ahead.


Point One - Protecting and creating jobs
Because jobs and opportunity are the best chance of keeping our best asset - our young people – at home.

We plan to create 20,000 new jobs a year over the next four years. How? By cutting employers’ PRSI, by creating a welfare system that encourages work and by investing an extra €7 billion from State pension funds and from the strategic sale of state assets into developing the key infrastructures that will make our economy competitive for the future.

In doing so, we can, by 2016, make Ireland the best small country in the world in which to do business.

Point Two - Introducing better, fairer budgets to keep taxes low
We will fix Ireland’s budget deficit by prioritising cutting waste, over raising taxes. Because high taxes kill jobs, we will keep taxes – particularly income taxes – down.

No country has ever taxed its way to economic recovery.


Point Three – we will create a completely new health system
Thanks to Micheal Martin’s creation of the HSE, €17 billion a year is currently spent on a health system that doesn’t work. That’s going to stop.
Our FairCare plan – modelled on the reformed Dutch health service - will cut waiting lists and end apartheid in our health service. With universal insurance, we’ll offer equal access to all. There’ll be more and better community care, meaning fewer hospital stays. Fewer hospital patients mean lower hospital costs for the taxpayer.


Point Four - smaller, better government with the people’s money spent wisely on vital public services
By streamlining systems, cutting red tape and abolishing quangos, we will reduce public-service costs by €5 billion. In making the system more efficient, we will protect the essential services provided by our teachers, nurses, doctors, Gardai and local government workers.


Point Five - a political system that achieves more and costs less, with the Government leading by example
We will cut the number of politicians by over a third. We will impose a ceiling on higher public service salaries.

We will introduce car pooling for ministers.

We will ensure proper accountability for decisions. A single-chamber parliamentary system, with powerful Dail committees, will hold Ministers to greater account
With our plan, when cuts are needed, they start at the top. When accountability is needed? It starts at the top. When sacrifice is needed? It starts at the top. Not with the blind, or the carers, or the poor. That’s example.


Conclusion
In just two days’ time, the current Dail will be dissolved. Tuesday is La Fheile Bride. The Celtic year turns, bringing new hope, new possibility, new life.

And as it does, Fine Gael want to bring that same new hope, new possibility, new life to Government. To our people. And to our country.
Because if people give us the most precious possessions that they have – their trust, their vote - then we will respond in kind.

With our plan we will replace old government cynicism with new government compassion.

We will replace old government indifference with new government insight.

We will replace the old dysfunction and disorder at the heart of government, with a government that holds the hearts and the needs of the people within its own.

That’s government they can trust.

That’s government they can believe in.

That’s government by Fine Gael.

The party with a Plan.

Each Fine Gael candidate will carry a clear message from this historic building to every person in Ireland:

• This country is not banjaxed. We have been faced with huge challenges before and we have overcome them.
• Fine Gael has the Plan to Get Ireland Working.
• We have the team – a strong team- to implement that plan.
• We are asking the Irish people for their mandate.
• If we get that honour, we will deliver and Get Ireland Working again.

Ends


Labour press release (http://www.labour.ie/press/listing/129638827139945587.html):


Job creation to be absolute priority for Labour in government

Issued : Sunday 30 January, 2011
Statement by Eamon Gilmore TD
Party Leader
Dáil Candidate for Dún Laoghaire

Launching Labour’s Plan for Enterprise, Innovation and Growth (http://www.labour.ie/policy/listing/129638632639865890.html)

Job creation and getting our people back to work will be an absolute priority for Labour in government.

Nothing summarises the failure of Fianna Fail more than their record on unemployment. The December Live Register numbers were the worst end of year figures ever recorded. The Live Register numbers have now been in excess of 400,000 for 19 months in succession.

Apart from the enormous social damage caused by unemployment, the numbers out of work are placing a huge financial burden on the country. Every person out of work costs the Exchequer in the region of €20,000 through tax foregone and additional social welfare.

The annual cost of the 283,000 people who have been added to the Live Register since Fianna Fail was returned to power in May 2007 is around €5.6bn. This is simply not sustainable.

We need a government that will work to get our people back to work. We need a clear vision on how our economy can grow into the future and a clear strategy to implement this plan.

Fianna Fail’s casino economy has to be replaced with an investment economy that will promote innovation and encourage start ups and expansion.

The plan we are launching here today outlines Labour’s proposals for a coherent jobs and enterprise strategy that will get a grip on the unemployment problem and drive economic growth.

A key element of our plan is the ring-fencing of €500m for a range of initiatives designed to get the people off the Live Register and back to work.

We need new and innovative thinking. We need to expand our business with the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China setting up trade and investment teams in these countries.

We need to set up a Trade Council, establish an Innovation Strategy Agency and create a network of Technology Research Centres.

We are already seeing the re-emergence of emigration as a direct result of our failure to create jobs at home. Ireland cannot afford to lose another generation of educated and talented young people as we did in the 1980s.

Unemployment and job creation has to receive the priority that it deserves. Labour in government will ensure that this happens.

The campaign has not even started and Labour seem to have already hit a number of self destruct buttons. Joan Burton, for a start, is clearly going mad and won't be on any front bench if Labour do form a coalition. She claims that Vincient Browne, the presenter, is a "sexist bully" in the Daily Mail after this encounter in which she did herself absolutely no favours at all.


XMcpEaYsb7M


Secondly what is the dear leader of the Labour Party doing taking such cheap shots at Fine Gael? He expects to be in coalition with them yet only today he is accusing FG of "leaving the door off the latch" for a deal with FF. Of course he has a right to tackle FG policy but he might want to be a bit more careful considering FG have other options after the election. If Labour are serious why don't they don't they put out joint policy posistions with FG?

As much as I love Vinny, (lives near my mum; always says hello) he does goad many politicians to a point that some end up breaking. Joan's disasterous appearance is definitely not unprecedented!!!

Joan is one member of a party, and her interview has been hyped up no end... She had a bad interview, and made a bit of a show of herself; it's hardly ruinous for the party.

As for Joan's credentials... she is a chartered accountant, from a poor area in inner-city Dublin, who has many years experience lecturing in universities internationally and at DIT in Ireland. She is just as worthy of consideration for a cabinet position than many of her counterparts in FG.

Also, of course the Labour leader should be warning the public against the prospect of a FG-dominated government... It's clearly something that most people don't want, and fortunately for Ireland won't happen.
Inda, Phil Hogan, James O'Reilly and the male geriatric brigade contolling governmet is almost as frightening as a return of the sleaze bag FF cronies...

Labour is more than capable of pragmatic politics, and that's how it differs considerably from the hard-left parties. When the time comes, Labour will be able to negoiate and create a workable government with FG.

If FG want to lead a government propped up by FF; they can enjoy the consequences.

double

Id normally support Fianna Fáil -not this time though. I think they need a long period of opposition. So I think I support Fine Gael this time out. Labour Party = spoofers.


I would not be supprised if FG did not need Labour Party support at all. They have other options

1. Overall majority:tongue2:

2. FG and like minded "profit before people" Independents

3. FG, Greens, Ind

4. FG Minority Govt support by FF on opposition side

5. FG/FF coalition:D

^^ I'll say nothing!!!

FF ruined our country, they took a perfectly good economy and brought it to the abyss, they have constantly proven to be corrupt, they have no actual ideological basis and they seem to be made up of a cohort of self-interested gombeen elderly man..

The prospect of them yielding any power again is beyond sickening, so hopefully such a scenario would not arise...

I may disagree fundamentally with FG politicians like Leo Varadker and Alan Shatter, but ultimately they are members of a decent, respectable party.
Fianna Fail are criminals and deserve to be put to bed forever; they and their supporters stand for nothing, but themselves!!!

^^ I'll say nothing!!!

brought it to the abyss, they have constantly proven to be corrupt


FG and FF are two sides of the same coin ideologically. Im not advocating FF be in any way shape or form involved in the next Government. What I am saying is that on economic matters they could form a new Tallaght strategy from the opposition benches and support a minority FG government.


My only problem with them is the would-be Taoiseach.



http://getnloose.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/poster-557x720.png

You would think they were presenting a new version of Windows.:ohno:

FF have no ideology in fariness; at least FG stand for something!!!

Fianna Fáil have announced their new front bench, looks like Brian "I have been in the Engine Room" Lenihan is staying in the "Engine Room" (of opposition!):tongue2:



Hanafin named as deputy FF leader

31/01/2011 - 15:22:12
Mary Hanafin has been named as deputy leader of Fianna Fáil.

Deputy Hanafin, who will also hold the portfolio of Environment and Local Government, was among a 21-member front bench announced by party leader Micheál Martin on the plinth at Leinster House a short time ago.

"I am very pleased that Mary Hanafin has agreed to serve as deputy leader," Mr Martin said.

"We share a vision of our party campaigning with energy on the basis of a renewed programme and reaching out to people in all parts of the country."

Brian Lenihan retains the Finance portfolio, as expected, while Limerick TD Willie O'Dea returns to the front bench with the Communications, Energy and Natural Resources portfolio.

"Pleased to be appointed to FF Front Bench," Deputy O'Dea tweeted following the announcement, saying the portfolio represented a vital sector in Ireland's economy.

Current govt chief whip John Curran gets the Justice and Law reform job from the retiring Dermot Ahern, while Eamon Ó Cuiv takes the Social Protection portfolio.

Mayo's Dara Calleary steps up to the front bench with the Enterprise, Employment and Innovation portfolio, while another FF 'young gun', Cork's Billy Kelleher, gets Transport.

Fourteen of the 21 appointees have not previously served in Cabinet, while the list is notable for the inclusion of a number of appointees not currently elected to the Dáil.

These include Senator Marc McSharry (Tourism & Arts), Cllr Mary Fitzpatrick (Housing & Urban Development) and Averil Power (Political Reform).

"In bringing together this front bench I have decided to draw on the party’s full base of TDs, Senators, councillors and candidates," Mr Martin said.

"We have hundreds of representatives in all parts of the country and I am determined that we find ways of harnessing all of their energy and experience.

"While the majority have not held Cabinet positions, all have shown a commitment to the development of innovative policies and a practical agenda to move our country forward."

FULL LIST OF NEW FF FRONT BENCH APPOINTMENTS:


Spokesperson on Environment & Local Gov and Deputy Leader Mary Hanafin TD
Spokesperson on Finance Brian Lenihan TD
Spokesperson on Justice & Law Reform John Curran TD
Spokesperson on Health & Children Barry Andrews TD
Spokesperson on Education & Skills Mary Coughlan TD
Spokesperson on Social Protection Eamon O Cuiv TD
Spokesperson on Enterprise, Employment & Innovation Dara Calleary TD
Spokesperson on Agriculture, Fisheries & Food Brendan Smith TD
Spokesperson on Tourism & Arts Senator Marc McSharry
Spokesperson on Defence Niall Collins TD
Spokesperson on Community, Equality & Gaeltacht Affairs Pat Carey TD
Spokesperson on Communications, Energy & Natural Resources Willie O'Dea TD
Spokesperson on Transport Billy Kelleher TD
Spokesperson on Foreign Affairs & Trade Peter Power TD

Spokesperson on Political Reform Averil Power
Spokesperson on Financial Sector Reform Michael McGrath TD
Spokesperson on Public Sector Reform Sean Fleming TD
Spokesperson on Sport Darragh O'Brien TD
Spokesperson on Small Business John McGuinness TD
Spokesperson on Housing & Urban Development Cllr Mary Fitzpatrick
Legal Adviser to the Frontbench and Spokesman on Constitutional Reform Cllr Jim O'Callaghan Senior Counsel


Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/hanafin-named-as-deputy-ff-leader-odea-back-on-front-bench-491593.html#ixzz1Cdgpwgzk


Seems the meltdown is going to be so severe Micheal Martin has to look outside of the current Fianna Fáil TD's to Senators and Councillors to fill his shadow cabinet.

I am fully with nordisk_celt83 on this one. Fianna Fáil have destroyed this country after 13 years in power. They are a pack of liars ("there are no bailout negotiations underway"), thieves (Ivor Callely) and and corrupt scumbags in general (Bertie "my biggest regret is not building a national stadium" Ahern).

Fine Gael and Labour were in power for three years before the current administration and were the most successful government ever in the history of the State. They managed to leave office with a huge budget surplus (and it was a Labour finance minister, Ruairí Quinn, who I have a lot of time for, that did it), a booming economy not dependent on construction and a huge improvement in living standards for all.

I have no party loyalties, however in this election I will be voting for a Fine Gael and Labour coalition, and will strategically vote in order to deny Fianna Fáil seats - I don't think I'll be alone!

Anyway, Fine Gael and Labour have very similar policies and won't take too long to form a decent plan for government. Their policies on the banks, economic recovery, infrastructure, political reform and healthcare (for instance) are almost identical with only minor variations. Fianna Fáil should not, and will not (they're a toxic brand) be part of any government in the next Dáil.

Finally, on the idea that "Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are the same", read this excellent post on boards.ie, (http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=60486164&postcount=28) it highlights the fundamental differences:


I think there's actually very very large differences between FF and FG, in culture and in policy. But it has become accepted conventional wisdom that they are exactly the same. Trotting out this line is a strategic aid to both Fianna Fáil (who thereby put across the "better the divil ye know, sure them Blueshirts would do everything we do anyway but they're nowhere near as much fun and don't give as many sweeties as we do" line which up til now has been very successful for them) and Labour (who thus actually have an issue on which to pretend to be the "real force for change", hence reducing FGs appeal for those tired of FF, thus leaving the door always open to coalition with either FF or FG. It's not in Labours interest for either to grow too strong)

There is an element of truth in that both party's local councillors tend to be utter gombeen mucksavages. But then almost every local councillor in Ireland is a gombeen mucksavage, regardless of party.

So that's the motivations for the "sure der all de same" talk you always hear.

FF are a classical clientelist Peronist-style party like, well, the Peronists in Argentina, the MRI in Mexico or the LDP in Japan. The entire point of the State is to provide jobs for the local supporters, local pork investment schemes, and generally to keep the faithful happy and continuing to vote for you. The point of those workers and businesses not within the State sector is to provide the taxes to keep the welfare coming. The party is run by and for the interests of donors from a few favoured industries - e.g. in Japan the LDP is run by and for the public-sector unions and the connected bosses of the zaibatsu. FF is run by and for the public sector unions, the builders and the publicans. Peronist-style parties also exhibit the curious trick of being their own opposition. Being comprised of a bunch of vested interests in uneasy cooperation to divy up the spoils amongst themselves, various vested interests often squabble for Top Dog position and Cabinet Ministers will frequently go off on solo-runs looking for additional pork for their faction. Power struggles within the established Party between factions are often far more important for determining the future direction of the country than any mere General Election. Again, the similarities between FF and the LDP are striking here.

Peronist parties by their very nature always end up quite startlingly corrupt.

FG are a conservative fiscal-rectitude law-and-responsibility party. The State exists as a body with the Authority to pass Law, regulations, establish standards and ensure personal responsibility. The purpose of the State is to provide a stable environment of impartial Law, and to provide public goods for the disadvantaged and for reasons of public health and overall national competitiveness. The State exists therefore as a support mechanism, it's purpose being to provide the stable lawful environment and healthy educated populace that Enterprise needs to create real wealth.

Here is by far the profoundest cultural difference between FF and FG - the nature and purpose of the State. FG clearly have very very different policies to the FF/PD government in recent years, not least on such trivial matters as how to sort out the banks, co-location and health service privatisation, universal health insurance, public sector administrative and employment reform, the economy generally, the attitude to borrowing and where new jobs should come from, corruption and ethics in public life. Just off the top of me head, like.

And when you look at those very different policies in light of the attitude of both parties to the purpose of the State, you'll see I'm not far from the truth and that there is a big, big difference between FF and FG.

Fine Gael and Labour were in power for three years before the current administration and were the most successful government ever in the history of the State. They managed to leave office with a huge budget surplus (and it was a Labour finance minister, Ruairí Quinn, who I have a lot of time for, that did it), a booming economy not dependent on construction and a huge improvement in living standards for all.

I read this excellent post on boards.ie,[/URL] it highlights the fundamental differences:


Eh, firstly you are aware why the FG/Lab coalition collapsed in 1997?


Secondly do you remember Labour's manifesto for the last election? They wanted more tax cuts and more spending. In fact FF had to hold the line on spending against constant attack by both parties. If FG/Lab had got in and implemented those policies what do you think the situation would be like now?

I remember Labour's rather pathetic tagline "but are you happy?"

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nhVuNQ2hfHg/RdLPqCMmOQI/AAAAAAAABA8/ipiSLXGd5Do/s400/but+are+you+happy.jpg


I have a good tagline for them this time - "bet you're not happy now!"

Id say Rauraí Quinn was not impressed. Here is his new poster :p

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_h8iJcagR9X0/TLTX6iil56I/AAAAAAAACWw/q-0SOeGebH4/s1600/HoChiQuinn.jpg

Just seen that Brian Cowen is resigning from politics completely after he calls the election tomorrow.

Beat me to it Odlum.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0131/cowenb.html

Seems a good strategy for FF. Get rid of the architect of chaos and replace him will a fella who can claim that he was more concerned with what was going on in Boston and Brussels than the economy.

I predict a FG/FF government tagged as a "national government." Based only on a gut feeling that is.

Beat me to it Odlum.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0131/cowenb.html

Seems a good strategy for FF. Get rid of the architect of chaos and replace him will a fella who can claim that he was more concerned with what was going on in Boston and Brussels than the economy.

I predict a FG/FF government tagged as a "national government." Based only on a gut feeling that is.


In some ways it's good for FF - but he would have certainly been elected in Offaly. His problem is that he would be associated in the public mind with the financial crisis having been Finance Minister for a good chunk of the decade. Probrably comes second only to Bertie Ahern in terms of political culpability.

Eh, firstly you are aware why the FG/Lab coalition collapsed in 1997?

Um, it didn't? It had to be dissolved because an election was due in 1997 (the last one was in 1992). In fact, Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left wanted to continue together in government after the 1997 election.

I think you may be confusing it with the Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition from 1992-1994, which collapsed because of the controversy surrounding Brendan Smyth? Labour then formed a coalition with Fine Gael without there being an election (the only time this has happened in Ireland).


Secondly do you remember Labour's manifesto for the last election? They wanted more tax cuts and more spending. In fact FF had to hold the line on spending against constant attack by both parties. If FG/Lab had got in and implemented those policies what do you think the situation would be like now?

To be honest I don't consider the 2007 election (or any previous election, even the 1997 one!) as relevant any more. All parties promised the sun, the moon and the stars because to do otherwise was political suicide. Look at Fine Gael's performance in the 2002 election, they acknowledged that maybe we should cut back on spending and paid a heavy price for it, the fact that the (relatively minor) downturn around then did mean spending had to be reduced (albeit marginally) in the following budget. I think all parties were aware of this in 2007, bearing in mind how fickle the Irish electorate are!

Fine Gael on course to govern by itself

Sunday February 06 2011

A series of constituency polls conducted by the Sunday Independent reveal that Fine Gael is agonisingly close to forming a single-party government for the first time since 1927.

The polls suggest that within the nation's constituencies, where party organisation and name recognition can give bigger parties a bounce, a silent surge to FG is occurring.

And if the swing continues the party will be on the cusp of actually securing an overall majority -- a political holy grail that hasn't been secured since the Jack Lynch era in Fianna Fail.

The Quantum Research poll across eight constituencies, which identifies local variations that would not show up in a national poll, puts Fianna Fail at 24 per cent.

The main government party for the last 15 years is trailing Fine Gael at 42 per cent. Labour is on 17 per cent.

In spite of ongoing issues with Enda Kenny's status as a leader, the party is now in contention to win an astonishing three out of five seats in constituencies like Cavan-Monaghan, Laois-Offaly and even Cork South Central.

The silent surge is not confined to rural areas. In Dublin West, Leo Varadkar is poised to clean up with just under a third of first preferences.

Whilst troubled Labour leader Eamon Gilmore secures a similar vote in Dun Laoghaire, the low first preference vote secured by Ivana Bacik means it is low-profile FG candidates Sean Barrett and Mary Mitchell O'Connor, rather than the Labour dream team, who are poised to win two seats in the constituency.

Meanwhile, Fine Gael, courtesy of Enda Kenny's stunning de Valera-style 25,000-strong vote, is now odds-on to win four out of the five seats in Mayo.

A number of other political heavyweights who are poised to rack up huge personal votes include Eamon Gilmore, Simon Coveney and Fergus O'Dowd, who on today's figures will top the poll in Louth with more than 16,000 first preferences.

The poll suggests that Mr Gilmore will win a stunning 20,000 votes in Dun Laoghaire, while Mr Coveney is poised to secure more than 16,000 votes in Cork and defeat Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin in the battle of the Cork poll toppers by a margin of almost two to one.

In what would represent a seismic political development, today's poll reveals that the FF deputy leader and recent candidate for the leadership, Mary Hanafin, has lost half of her vote in Dun Laoghaire and admits she is "facing my biggest political battle ever".

But the key factor which may see the most likely future FF female leader lose her seat to the United Left Alliance is the dismal performance of her cabinet colleague Barry Andrews, who is languishing at 7 per cent.

There is more bad news for FF in the party citadel of Laois-Offaly where FG's Charlie Flanagan is poised to inflict a crushing defeat on the Taoiseach's brother Barry Cowen. But while the seat will stay in the Cowen family, sitting Fianna Fail TDs John Moloney and Sean Fleming are in real danger of losing theirs.

The government party will, however, experience some isolated successes as both Brian Lenihan and Willie O'Dea are safe. But when it comes to the battle of the Limerick bruisers Michael Noonan is poised to knock Mr O'Dea off his perch as the designated poll topper in Limerick City for the first time in 20 years.

When it comes to Sinn Fein it may come as a consolation to Willie O'Dea that the former minister's nemesis, Maurice Quinlivan, is floundering miserably at the bottom of the Limerick battlefield as the Sinn Fein tide goes out.

In Louth, Gerry Adams will win a seat but the former British MP is being trounced by a margin of almost two to one by the FG frontbencher Fergus O'Dowd.

According to the polls, Green minister Ciaran Cuffe will struggle to get more than a thousand votes in Dun Laoghaire whilst the high-profile party chairperson and twitterer Dan Boyle is in real danger of experiencing a similar humiliation.

Independents are also faring poorly, with Socialist big hitters such as Joe Higgins and Richard Boyd Barrett struggling to secure what were previously thought to be certain gains.

The rise in FG support detailed by the Sunday Independent's series of polls will also increase tensions between the putative coalition partners of FG and Labou r.

It poses a real challenge for Labour strategists since Labour transfers could play a key role in carrying Fine Gael over the threshold where they might no longer require support from Labour to form a government.

FG spokespeople have consistently denied the existence of any plan to secure an overall majority.

But tensions have been increasing between the prospective partners.

One senior FG figure told the Sunday Independent yesterday: "We are starting to worry that FG and Labour together may not be good for the country. We have serious policies, we can do stuff, but how can this happen if we are tethered to a red post?"

- JOHN DRENNAN

Sunday Independent




What do you make of Enda Kenny's decision to pull out of the three way leaders debate on Tuesday? TV3 say they will have an empty seat there where he should have been.

Interesting article, odlum, thanks for sharing!

I think Kenny seriously messed up regarding the TV3 debate. Personally, I view the debates as pointless sideshows (personality over policy), but they are important for many people. Had Kenny stuck to his original excuse, for a five-way over a three-way debate (that the vast majority of people support), he would have probably looked good. Now he just looks inconsistent and scared of a debate.

It will be interesting to see how (if) this affects Fine Gael in the polls, especially considering the article above.

Interesting article, odlum, thanks for sharing!

I think Kenny seriously messed up regarding the TV3 debate. Personally, I view the debates as pointless sideshows (personality over policy), but they are important for many people. Had Kenny stuck to his original excuse, for a five-way over a three-way debate (that the vast majority of people support), he would have probably looked good. Now he just looks inconsistent and scared of a debate.

It will be interesting to see how (if) this affects Fine Gael in the polls, especially considering the article above.


Well, to me he has damaged himself on two fronts.

1. The empty podium which TV3 say they will have is going to be embarrasing to say the least for him.

2. Saying so late that the reason he had a problem with Vincient Browne as moderator was because VB had said on his show that Kenny should "take a glass of whiskey and revolver into a dark room" (he appoligised immediately) makes it look like just a convienient excuse to avoid a 3 way debate.


On the other hand FG's lead is such that they may feel they can only lose from such a debate. Either way it seems farcical.

New poll for RTE showing latest regional breakdown

'Poll of polls' for Dublin:

FF 11.1%,
FG 31.8%,
Labour 30.2%,
SF 9.4%,
Greens 2.7%,
Others 15.2%.

Leinster:

FF 19.9%,
FG 31%,
Labour 23.6%,
SF 11.4%,
Greens 1.4%,
Others 12.5%.

Munster:

FF 15.8%,
FG 34.3%,
Labour 20.8%,
SF 12.3%,
Greens 1.4%,
Others 15.1%.

Connacht/Ulster:

FF 19.6%,
FG 37.9%,
Labour 15%,
SF on 13.9%,
Greens 1.1%
Others 12.2%.

I see there was a visitor to Labour Election HQ

http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5260/5418596472_c97ba34a12_z.jpg


What's next, Tony Blair?

Predictions anyone???

My guess SO FAR
Fine Gael 60-65

Labour 35-40

Fianna Fail 30-35

Sinn Fein 10-15

Greens 2

ULA 3

Others 15

* Unfortunately, I think FF might make a comeback. People are suckers for insincerity, lies and bullshit sleaziness a.k.a Micheal Martin and every other member of FF that ever existed.

Party manifestos:

Green Party (http://vote.greenparty.ie/manifesto)
Fianna Fáil (http://election.fiannafail.ie/pages/read-the-plan)
Labour Party (http://www.labour.ie/download/pdf/labour_election_manifesto_2011.pdf)
Sinn Féin (http://www.sinnfein.ie/files/SF_GeneralElectionManifesto2011.pdf)

Fine Gael still have to publish their manifesto, and I can't find the Socialist Party's/ULA's on their website.

Latest Opinion Poll not good for Labour. Chances of FG majority Government is increasing.

FG on course to form government - poll
Updated: 19:06, Saturday, 12 February 2011

Fine Gael could be on course to form a government on its own, according to the latest Red C poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post.


FG on course to form government - poll


Fine Gael could be on course to form a government on its own, according to the latest Red C poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post.

The Red C poll for tomorrow's Sunday Business Post shows support for the party rising, while the other main parties drop back.

This Red C poll was carried out on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, so it should take fairly full account of the impact of the TV3 Leaders' Debate on Tuesday night, and of the criticism of Enda Kenny for not taking part in it.

Red C polled more than one thousand voters around the country, and found the number undecided down three points since last week, to 17%.

When they are excluded, support for Fine Gael is up three points to 38% - the kind of figure that makes a single party government a possibility.

Labour falls two points to 20, while Fianna Fáil is also down two, to 15%, and Sinn Féin drop three points to 10%.

The Greens are up one, to three, while Independents and others gain three to 14% support.

RTE



Sunday Business Post/Red C poll:

FG: 38% (+3),
Labour: 20% (-2),
FF: 15% (-2),
SF: 10% (-3),
Greens: 3% (+1),
Independents: 14% (+3).


I think that confirms that Enda Kenny won the first debate by not showing up :tongue3:

More notable is the fact that Martin becoming leader of Fianna Fáil hasn't caused them to increase their support.

Also some noises are now being made about his links to the developer Owen O'Callaghan. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out. :popcorn:

More notable is the fact that Martin becoming leader of Fianna Fáil hasn't caused them to increase their support.

Also some noises are now being made about his links to the developer Owen O'Callaghan. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out. :popcorn:

Varadkar's pompous head must be so swollen at this poll that you could see it from space.:lol:


Also some noises are now being made about his links to the developer Owen O'Callaghan.



http://gripofhysteria.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/mugabe.jpg

At this stage, I'd rather Fine Gael and a hotch-potch of like-minded independent tories, like Paul Sommerville and Shane Ross went into power than Fine Gael and Labour...

If people want tories, a further stagnating economy and right-wing policies they can have them!!!

Hopefully with a greatly depleted Fianna Fail, an opportunity could arise for Labour to position themselves as a strong oppostion to the disaster ridden tory coalition to come!

At this stage, I'd rather Fine Gael and a hotch-potch of like-minded independent tories, like Paul Sommerville and Shane Ross went into power than Fine Gael and Labour...

If people want tories, a further stagnating economy and right-wing policies they can have them!!!

Oh dear....check out the new FG stalker app


http://finegael2011.com/valentine.asp


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_KwpA6xz9vqc/TR9eyo7nxKI/AAAAAAAAEtU/eyY9fm0z96w/s1600/Obama+facepalm.jpg

Oh gawd, they're just so pathetic... They almost make me cringe as much as Daniel O'Donnell trying to sex things up for the grannies!!!

Id vote for FG Girl :P


vSkPCsPSYZg

Meh, she's just some poor unfortunate girl utilised, by means of cash incentive, for having the needed profile of blonde hair and blue eyes... It's a must for tory party adverts!!!

Real Fine Gael women aren't a bit of fluff, they're made of stronger, superior horsey stock.

I give you:


Frau Avril Doyle
http://i56.tinypic.com/2rxijgg.jpg



Odlum, Labour on the other hand promises you...



Maria Parodi
http://i51.tinypic.com/67qvq0.jpg

A left of centre liberal pinko, like me, really shouldn't be engaging in this sort of sexist stuff!!!!

You'd never guess I'm from a hard-core Fine Gael background!!!!

Let's see

FG

http://jasonomahony.ie/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/emma-kiernan.jpg


or Labour

http://www.adoptionrightsalliance.com/jb.jpg

*shudder*


On a serious note Labour don't seem to have much traction atm. I don't know why that is but I don't think they are doing a good job of articulating for the public what their plan actually is.

They might get better support from now on though as the spectre of a Fine Gael majority government becomes more realistic. The public might not be altogether happy with that prospect. FG are at such support now (almost 40%) that they may be able to form a Government with like minded independents.

IMO we do need a coalition to act as sort of a moral compass in Government. I don't think single party Government is desirable given past experiences.


p.s im usually FF - obviously can't vote for them now! They need a generation of opposition to sort them out.

Eamon Gilmore has been doing a poor job of articulating the Labour position, and attacking his counterparts. He needs to get dirty if he wants to make any ground!!!

Pat Rabbitte would rip the other party leaders apart if given the chance.

In terms of needing a coalition??? I'd be open to one if it meant Labour could make advances in education, health-care and social issues.

Labour did do a good job in coalition with FF (a pity that Government collapsed in the way it did) and they have attractive policies but they are too vague - that's the problem. Short on detail. Gilmore needs less shouting (why does he do that btw?...like a modern incarnation of Jim Larkin or something) and more substance.

The tv debate tomorrow will be a good opportunity for him to strike a few blows.


FG could have a problem with their new app in terms of spam potential

http://www.mamanpoulet.com/fine-gaels-obsession-with-bad-taste-and-the-implications/

Did anyone hear Martin's cringe-tastic comments today?

6x5Rcc17eb8

:lol:

As someone on politics.ie said - "what's the worst they can do?"


http://i.ytimg.com/vi/1vA4T1wfJLE/0.jpg



Out of curiosity did he squint when he said it ;)


ps I know the PC crowd will have a go but I genuinely don't see any problem with what he said. There is nothin in this.

My thoughts on last night's debate in the order in which I think they came out well


1. Enda Kenny: Pretty flawless considering he had most to lose. No one got a proper dig in and he handled it quite well. Very composed.

2. Micheal Martin: As assured as ever. Knows he has no chance in this election but conducted himself well. Has demensia over the fact he has been in cabinet for 14 years which undermines everything he says.

3. Eamon Glimore: Failed to land any punches. Really disappointing again. A fine orator and debater but again lacking on specifics.

4. Gerry Adams: The less said the better.

5. John Gormley: A farewell occasion. Should not have been there really. Neither should Gerry Adams for that matter.

Good to see Dublin is retaining its crown as the most sensible region in the country.


Labour Party tops Dublin opinion poll

The Labour Party and its leader Eamon Gilmore have topped a new poll in Dublin this morning.

The party leads a new Millward Brown Landsdowne poll for today's Evening Herald.

Labour has 31% support in the city, compared with 29% for Fine Gael, 16% for Independents, 11% for Sinn Féin, 10% for Fianna Fáil and 3% for the Greens.

In terms of party leaders, Enda Kenny does not have the support of Dubliners, with almost two out of three voters saying they are dissatisfied with how he is doing his job.

Almost half, 48%, are happy with Eamon Gilmore, who is the most popular leader among Dubliners.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/election/news/labour-party-tops-dublin-opinion-poll-493556.html

It's a great pity the boggers remain married to civil-war politics and a complete inability to see beyond their own self interests!!!

Eamon Gilmore won't be Taoiseach though so it does not really matter. And I think FG are the most popular in Dublin - based on my observations generally they are going to do very well.

You're right, he won't be Taoiseach. We'll just have to sit back and watch FG ruin the country, instead of their other side of the coin buddies FF.

A seriously depleted FF, not being in government and building up as the main opposition party to a disasterous FG government might be exactly what Labour needs!!!

Labour might be better advised going into opposition actually. FG are at 38% now nationally so they may not need them at all. They could build from the opposition benches - but they would have to work with Fianna Fáil.

You are right about FF though - they are in big trouble in Dublin.




I think we might get the results of the latest Irish Independent national poll tonight for tomorrow. Will post the results later.

My thoughts on last night's debate in the order in which I think they came out well


1. Enda Kenny: Pretty flawless considering he had most to lose. No one got a proper dig in and he handled it quite well. Very composed.

2. Micheal Martin: As assured as ever. Knows he has no chance in this election but conducted himself well. Has demensia over the fact he has been in cabinet for 14 years which undermines everything he says.

3. Eamon Glimore: Failed to land any punches. Really disappointing again. A fine orator and debater but again lacking on specifics.

4. Gerry Adams: The less said the better.

5. John Gormley: A farewell occasion. Should not have been there really. Neither should Gerry Adams for that matter.

Good analysis. I'd add that Martin really messed it up with his little rant at Gerry Adams, and that John Gormley got pretty good towards the end.

Tomorrows Millward Brown poll for the Irish Independent

FF 12 ( -4)
FG 38 (+ 8 )
Lab 23 (-1)
Gr 1 (-)
SF 10 (-3)
Ind/Other 16 (-1)


FG up 8 - 38% :nuts:

Greens at just 1%.


FF just 12%.


Tomorrow's headline in the Irish Independent is "Fine Gael on brink of single party rule"

:)

Why an anarchist would vote for Fianna Fáil

yieS7jWWdB8


:lol:

Nordisk what do make of these ad campaigns by Labour against Fine Gael? Does the phrase "when your in a hole........" mean anything to these Labour types ;)

Two polls out tomorrow.


Sunday Business Post poll

SBP Red C poll:

FG: 39% (+1),
Lab: 17% (-3),
FF: 16% (+1),
SF: 12% (+2),
Grns: 2% (-1),
Ind: 14% (nc).


Sunday Independent

FF 16% (+4),
FG 37% (-1),
Lab 20% (-3),
Grn 1% (-),
SF 12% (+2),
Ind 14% (-2)

Also Enda Kenny is now the most popular choice among the electorate according to tomorrows Sunday Independent

Who do you want to be Taoiseach?
Kenny 33pc
Martin 28pc
Gilmore 24pc

Beat me to it, I was about to post the same thing!

Labour's negative campaigning tactics aren't impressing the electorate, it seems. The fact that Gilmore has gone from most popular party leader to be Taoiseach into third place (with Enda Kenny first!) is very worrying for them.

Excellent polls for Fine Gael, as long as they don't mess it up in the coming week they'll be very happy by the end of next Saturday.

Fianna Fáil are looking like they could overtake Labour now, something I really wouldn't like to see happen.

Two things that are extraordinary

1. FG is on course on current trends to maybe get an overall majority. It just needs to reach 40 or 41%. That would be remarkable.


2. Enda Kenny in the space of a week goes as least popular to most popular!



FG don't need Labour on these figures.

Seems the people are about to elect the most right wing Government in the history of the State.

i5KkSoHhWfY&NR

"we can't even run a website" :D



I also came across this clip of Leo Varadkar last year telling us he had no confidence in him

Mt_J_c447ro

and now he has confidence, go figure.

IPSOS/MRBI poll for tomorrows Irish Times

FG 37 (+4)
Lab 19 (-5)
FF 16 (+1)
SF 11 (-1)
Green 2 (+1)
Others 15


Enda Kenny on course to lead his party to a single party Government whilst Labour's campaign continues to fall apart. Also some consistency in a slight FF resurgence.

Depends on what you mean by right wing Porridge.

Dev was pretty hair shirt Theology rightist; but I guess for those looking in; you mean right wing Neo Cons.

Shocking really that the Blueshirts have swung into Thatcherites so quickly.

Now that Gilmore and Sun tan Enda have fallen out, if FG don't achieve a majority, who do you think they can cozy up to?

Forgive them lord, and all that!!!

God (even though I don't think he exists) help us all...

Depends on what you mean by right wing Porridge.

Dev was pretty hair shirt Theology rightist; but I guess for those looking in; you mean right wing Neo Cons.

Shocking really that the Blueshirts have swung into Thatcherites so quickly.

Now that Gilmore and Sun tan Enda have fallen out, if FG don't achieve a majority, who do you think they can cozy up to?

Economically they have always been right of center. Indeed once upon a time they were even more right again...
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dWi1ftqEfOg/TVSLk1BObwI/AAAAAAAABmo/UUImWpiGSFM/s1600/blueshirts%255B1%255D.gif

They are not like that now of course:)

I think they could do a deal with like minded independents. I don't see a deal with Labour being needed. They fcuked up their own campaign. The whole "Gilmore for Taoiseach" thing came across as pretty arrogant considering they had not a hope in hell of being anything close to the lead party in Government. It was almost like they were expecting this election to be a mere formality before they could get their mercs.


Our next Taoiseach...who chickened out of the first debate

qZbXDbV2XQ0



And just on the whole Varadkar 3am thing....

VScPk1tSS6E

Blueshirt rally at the Aviva stadium yesterday - if you can stomach it


http://www.rte.ie/news/av/2011/0220/media-2910445.html#

Oh look, it's George Hook!

^^

I see they've managed to push the token womenfolk up front...

George is of course an example of the fact that untermenschen, among the working-classes, can make it big if they're not naturally unequal by birth!!!

The I've never even heard of Dublin Mid-West says it all about George and his ilk really.

We may be getting a hard-time in the council estates, but at least Labour actually make a presence known in these areas...

FG don't even put leaflets through the letterbox, let alone have the cheek to knock on the doors!

I truly fear for the working-class in our society, and the spiral effect that then has on the rest of us when FG dominate the next government.

EDIT: People in Ireland seriously need to look at Norway, Sweden and Denmark to see how proper societies function, and stop focussing their attention on the UK and US!!!

We may be getting a hard-time in the council estates, but at least Labour actually make a presence known in these areas...

FG don't even put leaflets through the letterbox, let alone have the cheek to knock on the doors!

I truly fear for the working-class in our society, and the spiral effect that then has on the rest of us when FG dominate the next government.

EDIT: People in Ireland seriously need to look at Norway, Sweden and Denmark to see how proper socities function, and stop focussing their attention on the UK and US!!!


But working class votes are leaking from Labour to Fine Gael. How do you square that circle? Fianna Fáil has hardly changed in the polls and Sinn Féin are losing support.

Whatever the Fine Gael strategy is they are going to get an overall majority on current trends because they will be so transfer freindly. Labour voters will transfer votes to Fine Gael candidates.

You may not like Fine Gael policy but maybe people have made up their minds about coalition? Maybe they just want a strong one party Government.

Also it could be beneficial for Labour to build from opposition. Even if Fine Gael don't need them the next Government might not last 5 years.

But working class votes are leaking from Labour to Fine Gael. How do you square that circle? Fianna Fáil has hardly changed in the polls and Sinn Féin are losing support.

You obviously haven't been canvassing in working class areas... Fine Gael would be chased out if they went near them; they're solid not voting, indepentents and Sinn Fein.

Fine Gael would be lucky to pick up one vote in most Dublin's council estates I've been in.

Although, they are getting one, two and three in the much older, middle-class neighbour hoods that are pre-1980's.

Also, I've stated many times I'd be happy for Labour to remain in opposition next time round. It's in the party's interests, but def not in that of the country!

You obviously haven't been canvassing in working class areas... Fine Gael would be chased out if they went near them; they're solid not voting, indepentents and Sinn Fein.

Fine Gael would be lucky to pick up one vote in most Dublin's council estates I've been in.

Although, they are getting one, two and three in the much older, middle-class neighbour hoods that are pre-1980's.

Also, I've stated many times I'd be happy for Labour to remain in opposition next time round. It's in the party's interests, but def not in that of the country!


I don't think that is true, with respect. As Labour support falls Fine Gael's rises. The other parties are falling. That means Labour votes are diminishing to Fine Gael. It could not be any other way but they are losing votes in working class areas. Not saying I approve or that it's a gushing torrent but the only interpretation I can put on it is that there is soft stream toward FG in unlikely areas.


I know what will get you going. James Reilly TD, the arch anti socialist. According to politics.ie this is where he lives (unconfirmed ;) )

http://i54.tinypic.com/2utm8et.jpg

9i2uO0or3QM

Forward to 1.03 and listen very carefully ;)


Imagine that, the peasentry at a Fine Gael event, I never....;)

I don't think that is true, with respect. As Labour support falls Fine Gael's rises. The other parties are falling. That means Labour votes are diminishing to Fine Gael. It could not be any other way but they are losing votes in working class areas. Not saying I approve or that it's a gushing torrent but the only interpretation I can put on it is that there is soft stream toward FG in unlikely areas.


Trust me, there isn't; the poorest areas are completely disaffected... They're either not voting or are voting outside the big 3 altogether. There are still some Labour supporters there, and I'd hazzard a guess there are even more FF supporters in these areas than FG ones...

Where Labour has completely lost out is in the over 45 middle-class bracket, they're solid Fine Gael at this stage.

The youth vote is bizarely enough rather diverse, and still heavily influenced by their parents, so there is a FG vote there, especially if they've heard some spiel from their parents that Labour will Tax them!!!

Labour are doing well with young couples in their 20's, 30's and early 40's, and in middle-class areas that were built in the 80's and 90's. i.e pre-boom period.

You also get the odd open FF voter, who are generally men in the 50+ bracket, and seem rather proud when they declare they're voting FF. They seem to expect you'll be disgusted, and when you ask them for a transfer they seem pleased enough.


This is in Dun Laoghaire now, and there are very obvious patterns!!!

Perhaps it's different in other constituencies, but certainly seems to be how things are panning out in Dun Laoghaire!!!

Really dissapointed with Labour. What is the point of going into an election and telling your voters you aren't going to win? I am obviously reffering to todays recent announcement by Eamon. I thought they had they had the chance to pull in nice and tight with FG and may be even turn it. A few good policys in place. I think I would more inclined to fall in line with FF now. I mean the Greens are hopeless, SF are led by a guy who can't do math and is trying to tell us he has a great plan to reverse welfare cuts and send the IMF packing yet doesn't have a clue how he's going to get the money he needs or things like what is the VAT and Child benefit rate? FG aren't too bad but I am not a big fan of them. They wont be doing much different, same old thing which I am not too worried about, but again, no concrete plans.

Fine Gael has the most concrete agenda in fairness. Light years ahead of the Labouur Party - part of their problem is all the fence sitting. Ask Gilmore does he support the Croke Park agreement - why don't they give a straight yes or no answer to anything!?


BTW Fine Gael's online campaign just took another turn for the weird

http://www.finegael2011.com/game/

I killed Eamon Gilmore....;)

Fine Gael has the most concrete agenda in fairness. Light years ahead of the Labouur Party - part of their problem is all the fence sitting. Ask Gilmore does he support the Croke Park agreement - why don't they give a straight yes or no answer to anything!?


BTW Fine Gael's online campaign just took another turn for the weird

http://www.finegael2011.com/game/

I killed Eamon Gilmore....;)

lol, I don't think it will be replacing Mario anytime soon. Could only ever get two points. I think the message of the game must have been... "FG are going to 'save the country' not quickly, but it will take time."

Lucinda Creighton has an interesting letter in this mornings Irish Times


Madam, – Séamus Dooley (February 18th) suggests trade unions cannot be “lumped in with those responsible for wrecking the Irish economy”. While neither Fine Gael nor I have declared war on trade unions, as he claims, we have consistently pointed to the role of senior trade union officials in the sort of cosy deals which characterised social partnership over the past 14 years. Decisions to increase pay and conditions for workers (particularly higher paid employees) in public sector positions, while failing to deliver the efficiencies and value for money which they committed to, has undoubtedly contributed in a major way to the massive deficit which now faces our country. We could not afford the deals that were struck between Jack O’Connor, David Begg and others with former taoiseach Bertie Ahern. That is not an attack on trade unions; it is simply fact.

In addition, trade union leaders, who sit on a multitude of State boards must accept the burden of responsibility for reckless decisions taken while they sat on these very boards. Many of these Government appointments were extremely well paid. It is far too easy and convenient to claim that trade union representatives can sit on the boards of State entities such as Fás, the Central Bank and Aer Lingus, without shouldering some of the responsibility for the waste and profligacy that occurred within. Board members are not innocent bystanders, irrespective of whether they are appointed as union representatives or on some other basis. They are charged with the role of watchdog, with legal and fiduciary duties to ensure that matters are managed in the best interest of taxpayers and citizens. I don’t think anyone could argue that this was the case in Fás.

One of Fine Gael’s core values is that of social solidarity. I don’t think we should be lectured by Mr. Dooley, Jack O’Connor or any other senior protagonist in the trade union movement on the issue of workers or wages. Where were these people over the past three years when 300,000 people lost their jobs and were forced to sign on to the live register? Where were they when 60,000 of our talented young people were forced to emigrate? So much for workers’ rights. Where were they when Fás received a budget of €1 billion per annum to deal with training and up-skilling at a time when the Government was boasting of zero unemployment rates? Where are the answers to the Oireachtas Public Accounts Committee questions arising from a €2.4 million slush fund which has yet to be accounted for by Siptu? Where were the union leaders when our lowest paid workers were savagely attacked by the universal social charge introduced in last December’s budget? These are serious questions to which I have not heard credible answers.

To blithely suggest that any politician who questions the credentials of trade union leaders – some of who are paid in excess of €130,000, having objectively failed in their task to protect workers’ rights – is simply pursuing a “PD vote” is arrogant, dismissive and displays a profound ignorance of the demographics in my particular constituency. Our area has seen an enormous rise in unemployment, and everyone here, from the wealthiest parts of Dublin South East to the most deprived parts of the Inner City, has suffered enormously at the hands of poor decision-makers.

Most of the people who visit my weekly clinics in the inner city are not interested in posturing by trade union leaders about pay deals, they are focused on trying to get off the dole and get back to work. If Jack O’Connor and other trade union leaders are willing to engage with Fine Gael on solving the unemployment crisis and giving people real hope for a future in the country, they can rest assured, there is nothing whatsoever to fear. – Yours etc,

LUCINDA CREIGHTON TD,

(Dublin South East),

Fine Gael,

Leinster House, Dublin 2.


That's interesting - going for the working class vote and bashing the Unions at the same time. My own opinion on why the Labour party is suffering losses atm is this. I take it nordisk you did not hear Jack O'Connor of SIPTU put his head above the parapet on radio last week? (Think it was Today FM). He was telling people to vote for the Labour Party. What's wrong with that you may ask? People know and remember who has partial responsibility for where we are now - the Trade Unions. Remember Bertie Ahern buying them off year after year with massive pay rises and little productivity? That is what pushed up inflation and ultimately made the country uncompetitive. I think for the public the days of Jack O'Connor and David Begg strutting around Government Buildings like they own the place are over. I know I don't want to see that ever again. I think alot of people with any sense would feel the same way.

Perhaps Labour has that perennial problem - seen as too close to vested Union Interests - just a thought.


Another Leaders debate tonight on RTE. Eamon Gilmore's last chance to turn it round.

Did Jack O'Connor actually ask people to vote Labour??? To the best of my knowledge, all he said was don't vote Fine Gael into a single party government.

The unions have had their bellies rubbed by FF for the past 14years, so the whole Labour bias thing is getting a bit tired!

Did Jack O'Connor actually ask people to vote Labour???


He sure did. He would "prefer" Labour.



The unions have had their bellies rubbed by FF for the past 14years, so the whole Labour bias thing is getting a bit tired!


Willing participants they were too. So what is the deal here? If I vote FG I will get Labour calling the shots because they hold the balance? That is not what I would be voting for anymore then I voted FF last time out to have the Green party tell me how to live my life. Do you not see this as part of the problem? Why should a majority be held ransom by a minority party? Happens all the time in coalitions.

Where are the answers to the Oireachtas Public Accounts Committee questions arising from a €2.4 million slush fund which has yet to be accounted for by Siptu?

Indeed. Snouts in the trough.

Actually, just to correct that last comment:

Jack O'Connor merely said that FG would be a disaster, (rather insightful really) and didn't ask people to vote any particular way..

If Labour were such good f**k buddies with the public sector and unions why don't we get well over 50% of the vote at every election???

That would make up the total of the workforce either directly connected to the respected sectors and those indirectly connected to them i.e through a spouse, parent or child!!!

His own preference is irrelevant!

Scrub that 50% figure actually, and make it 75-80% of the population who are either directly or indirectly connected to the public sector or trade unions...

Here's hopin they'll all of a sudden start voting Labour to suit their vested interests, and we can have a dictatorship.

It's a pity they didn't seem to grasp this in the past or we would have been rulers for life!!!

Scrub that 50% figure actually, and make it 75-80% of the population who are either directly or indirectly connected to the public sector or trade unions...

Here's hopin they'll all of a sudden start voting Labour to suit their vested interests, and we can have a dictatorship.

It's a pity they didn't seem to grasp this in the past or we would have been rulers for life!!!

Less then 40% of the population is in a trade union last time I checked. Going down and down every year. That's why Labour vote is so low perhaps.

Less then 40% of the population is in a trade union last time I checked. Going down and down every year. That's why Labour vote is so low perhaps.

Eh hello, what about all those in the public sector who are supposed to be so enamoured by labour that aren't members of any union either???

Why aren't the 50% population who are either in unions or employed in the public sector voting for Labour???

Why aren't their wives and husbands who work part-time, and are not the primary bread-winners voting for Labour to continue this cosy relationship???

Why aren't their kids, parents and relatives who would be directly endangered by any damage to the public sector and unions always cosying up to Labour???

Historically speaking over 60% of the pop were in unions or were members of the public sector, why didn't they are their families vote for Labour???

Because their vested interets were obviously with another vote buying party!!!

God, by this analogy: Labour should be getting the un-skilled working-class vote, the unemployed sponger vote, union members votes, public sector votes and all the wives, husbands and children directly affected by these credentials...

A 100% vote for Labour in the next election??? Can't fuckin wait!!!:banana:

Although, it's a pity the retarded plebs are probably only coming to this conclusion now. If only they had realised it when union membership, working in the ps and unemployment was even more rife, Labour would have been in gov since 1922.

I wonder who they were all voting for?:dunno:

Unfortunately, the retarded plebs are still the victims of bs ff/fg/media spin!!!

Don't worry if we cater for an elite of rich folks, they may just throw a few crumbs in return for your servitude... Welcome to the 19th century!

Also Odlum, I take issue with your bizzare statement that FG policies were a country mile better than those of Labour.

I always took you for an informed poster... You're not seriously falling for the much orated 5-point plan laid out to appease the gullible plebs, and bile fuelled accusations that Labour are dilly-dallying and have no policies????

Labour have far more than a silly 5 point plan, and have by far the most detailed policy documents, that people like Jan O'Sullivan have worked so hard to cost and formulate to the last T...

http://www.labour.ie/policy/

It's so disheartening to see the majority of people still falling for the same old BS politics!!!

I think Fine Gael's manifesto is much more comprehensive then Labour's. It's more risky which is what we need. Labour want deficit correction by 2016. Fine Gael want it done by 2014. Labour want 50/50 tax/spend correction, FG want 20/80....

The problem I, and alot of people I know, have with Labour is that they sit on the fence. Can you explain their approach to the Croke Park Agreement with the Trade Unions? Asked time and time again do they support or not support they waffle out of it without a simple yes or no.

At least with FG we know what we get. With Labour we don't.


And im not having a go at the Labour party. Im simply saying as I see it.

Here is an example of their duplicity - so called "party of the left" prefers FG coalition - won't touch other left wingers with a 50 foot pole.

ms9WE7FoPM4

Is that not dishonest and duplicitous?


Labour launched a new poster campaign today

http://photos5.media.pix.ie/87/AA/87AABB0B18C744E9826E8119A0D73C9D-0000333355-0002183588-00800L-4E460DEBC33242FC984AEB509D421B54.jpg


Smacks of desperation. "PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE!, We have not been in Government for ages!" - "It's NOT FAIR!"

They know FG can go it alone without them. What's more that poster is in a working class area - what does that say about your view that Labour is not losing votes to FG in these areas? Sure their begging for them now!

Eamon Gilmore needs a good performance tonight in the leadership debate. He has to get stuck in. This is where people are most disappointed. We know he is a magnificent debater. We just have not seen it yet....

FG's policies are unambitious, and are remarkably similar to the deflationary policies adopted by the tories in the UK.

The Financial Times, EU mininsters and experts at Davos are all saying making excessive cuts and reaching the 3% deficit by 2014 isn't feasible.

These policies will destroy our domestic economy, and mean Ireland will be unable to pay its debts within 2-3years! (perhaps this is what you want as a ff fan???)


Anyway, here's the latest Labour ad campaign...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDhYax4BinA

FG's policies are unambitious, and are remarkably similar to the deflationary policies adopted by the tories in the UK.

The Financial Times, EU mininsters and experts at Davos are all saying making excessive cuts and reaching the 3% deficit by 2014 isn't feasible.

These policies will destroy our domestic economy, and mean Ireland will be unable to pay its debts within 2-3years! (perhaps this is what you want as a ff fan???)


Anyway, here's the latest Labour ad campaign...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDhYax4BinA



lol! Im not a FF fan - not atm - maybe 20 years time. I just love winding FG'ers up. Even though I can really only vote for them as they best suit the approach I think is best.

FG's approach is burden sharing. Bondholders will get burnt under Fine Gael. What's Labours policy on Anglo Irish Bank? FG will close it next year. They are unequivical about that. I don't believe FG policy will destroy the economy. Let's get real here. A correction has to be made. If anything Labour want to prolong the pain by 2 years. To hell with that. Irish people don't want that. They want this sorted in as much as it can be as quickly as possible. I undertand Labour have their own convictions and genuinely believe they are as right as I feel I am.

Also this 2016 deadline just happens to be a SIPTU deadline aswell.

I will come back on later to give a longer more considered reponse.

Nice ad btw.

WOW (watching the debate)

Enda is a complete disaster... Gilmore really caught him out on his public sector policies. Who's dilly dallying now Enda???

These twats will ruin the country; they don't even believe in their own plan!!!

Sorry I said plan, I meant to say their own 5-point plan... Can't be forgetting the much orated 5-point plan!

Sweet Jesus, were you actually watching the debate?!

Enda started very well, trailed off a bit but finished well, particularly on the Health issue.

Gilmore started off quite subdued but gradually grew into the debate and made incisive contributions.

Michael Martin.....was his usual arrogant, obnoxious self and was allowed to interrupt everybody.

Overall, steady performances by Kenny and Gilmore....Martin impressing nobody but dyed in the wool FFers.

Less then 40% of the population is in a trade union last time I checked. Going down and down every year. That's why Labour vote is so low perhaps.

Its even dropping lower in the Public Sector. My Dad is a PS worker and over the past few years he and many others in his Hospital have left the Union because of Unions being hand in hand with management, Union mouthpieces being promoted above those who merit promotion etc etc etc!

Watching Micheál Martin last night you cannot help but feel "this guy has dimensia".....does he genuinely not realise the gravity of the charge that he has been in the Government for 14 years!?


The voters do. Latest poll in todays Irish Independent has FF down to just 14%

FF 14 -2,
FG 38 +1,
Lab 20,
GP 1,
SF 11 -1,
Ind 16 +2

It was an awful debate because Martin wouldn't shut the fuck up for a minute and let anyone else get a word in.

Paddy Power / RED C Poll:

Fine Gael: 40 (+1)
Labour: 18 (+1)
Fianna Fáil: 15 (-1)
Sinn Féin: 10 (-1)
Green Party: 3 (+1)
Independents/Others: 14 (=)

Is Dustin the Turkey running? He did a decent job in eurovision.

It was an awful debate because Martin wouldn't shut the fuck up for a minute and let anyone else get a word in.

Paddy Power / RED C Poll:

Fine Gael: 40 (+1)
Labour: 18 (+1)
Fianna Fáil: 15 (-1)
Sinn Féin: 10 (-1)
Green Party: 3 (+1)
Independents/Others: 14 (=)
#

The second (blueshirt) Republic is about to begin:)


As for the debate.....

5mJ_7SqKxGI&

Is there actually much difference between the basic political philosophies of FF and FG or are they just two competing factions trying to win power?

Is there actually much difference between the basic political philosophies of FF and FG or are they just two competing factions trying to win power?

FG are to the right of FF. If they win an overall majority it will be more an economically right wing and conservative administration. They are likely to be alot more forthright with bringing to justice the people responsible for the banking fiasco. They are also likely to force bondholders to share some of the burden which is on the taxpayers. FF are more centrist (everything to everyone).

The difference between them is not big at all. They are known as "civil war" parties. They both came from the old IRA. The only difference is how they percieved 90 years ago what the best route to establishing a Republic was. FF wanted it declared immediately risking full war with Britain. FG wanted to do it in stages starting with the treaty in 1921 which made Ireland a free state though still within the old empire. "Freedom to achieve Freedom" they called it. The result was a civil war. Ultimately the FG philosophy won out. One of the ironies is that while FF see themselves as the most Republican party it was in fact FG that established the Republic and took Ireland out of the Commonwealth in 1948.

So there is very little between them ideologically. Just that FG are more to the right of the spectrum (the embraced facism for a short time in the 30's).

Which is extraordinary given what has happened because you would think people would go left in numbers. That's not happening and it's hard to understand how we end up in posistion where a party of the right is about to be elected.

I think there is a real sense that people want blood, they want people (politicians, bankers, speculators) in jail and that has something to do with it. But I still don't fully get it myself.

Good analysis, odlum. Although I think it's a bit simplistic to label Fine Gael as 'right-wing'. They've drifted between centre-left and centre-right a few times - notably in the 1960s they embraced social democracy in the "Just Society" document, and in the 1980s were a socially liberal party under Fitzgerald. They've got the two 'wings' (one closer to social democracy/liberalism and the other closer to Christian democracy/conservativiam). They're very like an American political party in that way (there are liberal Democrats, conservative Democrats, etc.). Fianna Fáil is something similar, but as you say are generally 'everything to everyone'.

Polls close in a few hours.

Exit poll at 08:00 tomorrow, count begins at 09:00.

Popcorn at the ready, folks! :D

Good analysis, odlum. Although I think it's a bit simplistic to label Fine Gael as 'right-wing'. They've drifted between centre-left and centre-right a few times - notably in the 1960s they embraced social democracy in the "Just Society" document, and in the 1980s were a socially liberal party under Fitzgerald. They've got the two 'wings' (one closer to social democracy/liberalism and the other closer to Christian democracy/conservativiam). They're very like an American political party in that way (there are liberal Democrats, conservative Democrats, etc.). Fianna Fáil is something similar, but as you say are generally 'everything to everyone'.

Polls close in a few hours.

Exit poll at 08:00 tomorrow, count begins at 09:00.

Popcorn at the ready, folks! :D


Micheal Ring, Alan Shatter, Leo Varadkar, Micheal Noonan, Lucinda Creighton, Brian Hayes..........these people are all going to be in the cabinet. I think it's safe to say that is quite right of center.:dunno:


May get an Exit Poll tonight. I heard on Newstalk they said something about an exit poll later tonight. RTE will keep theirs under wraps till the morning.

Just seen aswell alot of money going on Paddy Power toward FG at 81 or more seats. They look really close to an overall majority. Question is can labour get in as a restraining influence.

Could be worse. I see this local FF candidate ;)

http://www.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/43casw-1.jpg

Micheal Ring, Alan Shatter, Leo Varadkar, Micheal Noonan, Lucinda Creighton, Brian Hayes..........these people are all going to be in the cabinet. I think it's safe to say that is quite right of center.:dunno:


I think it would be more than fair to say Fine Gael are quite right of centre. They're like something from the stone age, in Nordic terms.

'Insanity is making the same mistake over and over again, and expecting a different result. ' Albert Einstein


Ireland's electoral history in a nutshell!!!!

Figures coming out on turnout of voters. Looks like it could be close to or even exceed 70%!



BTW did any of you see Declan Ganley on TV3 tonight - fcukin hillarious. Will post when it's youtubed:)

Exit poles
FF- 15.1%
FG- 36.1%
Labour- 20.5%
Sin Fein- 10.1%
Green- 2.7%
Independant- 15.5%

Well not much of a surprise. I thought the Green's did slightly better and Sin Fein slightly worse but it looks like the opinion poles have been fairly accurate.

BTW did any of you see Declan Ganley on TV3 tonight - fcukin hillarious. Will post when it's youtubed:)

I saw it! Car-crash television.

That Fine Gaeler guy (with the glasses) was just embarrassing. Thank God it looks like they won't be going into power alone, with morons like him around!

FF at 8% in Dublin. Chances they won't win a single seat. :cheers:

Enjoy today, folks!

You can watch RTE's election coverage on BBC Parliament

Only 8% of people gave FF their 1st preference in Dublin.

That's annilalation in Dublin.

It's looking like Hanafin or Andrews won't win a seat in Dún Laoghaire. :banana:

Is this a total realignment? The problem with such a crushing defeat is any party loses their best people, their infrastructure, activists after such a calamity. This is what happened to the British Liberals essentially, it was a swift death for them (ironically the Irish question split the party and caused a realignment)

Is this the death of civil war politics?

And likely the end of the Haughey political dynasty

It's looking like Hanafin or Andrews won't win a seat in Dún Laoghaire. :banana:

Looks like both of them won't win a seat. Out of 46 seats in Dublin FF will be lucky to get 1 (they got 18 in the las election). Brian Lenihan may just hold on. Also the Tániste Mary Coughlan (Deputy PM) is really struggling in Donegal South West. Nightmarish stuff for Fianna Fáilers. Facing complete wipeout in the midland constituencies aswell.


This is what happens when you fuck up.


It's too early to call an end to civil war politics IMO. But Sinn Féin will not be too far behind FF in terms of seat numbers. That's a measure of how far FF are going to fall. We could be looking at complete realignment but it's too early to tell.

Im pretty sure Nordisk will be happy with Labour's performance so far. Doing well. Well done. FG won't get an overall majority based on the exit polls. Labour may win out in Dublin.

Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams may top the poll in Co Louth.

If FF totally collapse they lose their infrastructure. Could it possible that Labour and Fine Gael become the 2 main parties.

I think there would be a historic mistake to allow FF to become the opposition for the next five years. As an outsider, if I wanted to see a realignment of irish politics into a more traditional left/right axis and a Labour strategist I would keep the Labour party as the opposition party giving support to Fine gael on the budgets but to remain in opposition. Otherwise, FF will be able to present themselves as the opposition to the devastating cuts and prolonged economic problems ireland is still to face.

I was saying in this thread it would be better for the Labour Party to lead the opposition. But the nature of politicians, as we all know, is power ASAP. Fianna Fáil will probrably lead the opposition. That means they can bebuild and they will. I think there is alot of lending of votes from FF to FG in this election.


But we should not get ahead of ourselves. It is still possible FG either won't need Labour or could do a deal with someone else. But long term it would be much better for the Labour party to be in opposition.


Also FG is a center right party. They may be popular now - how popular will they be in 12 months time? Doubt this Government will last a full term.

This will be going on all night and tomorrow but TV3 have a projection for seats as things stand


FG 78
LAB 36
FF 17
SF 16
GP 1
OTH 18



FF and SF neck and neck. Gerry Adams, leader of the opposition? :o

^^

I hope you're right Odlum, woudln't mind one or two more for Labour... (Don't know where I'd take them from)

Slightly disappointed that the Dublin exit poll vote isn't being reflected in all the constituencies, across the capital. Especially, in DS and Dublin mid-west. It appears Labour vote management was very poor in constituencies with more than one candidate!!!

I'm just back from the counts accross DS, and alll Labour grassroots don't want us to go into coalition with the blueshirts; it would mean anhilation at the next election!

Also, just to clarify I hope you're right as I'd rather an FG/Ind government!!!

what's the overall maj number in the Dail?

But what a result if the Sinners overtake FF. Labour would be making a historic mistake to go into coalition. Do the numbers allow Fine Gael to form a coalition with anyone else?

what's the overall maj number in the Dail?

But what a result if the Sinners overtake FF. Labour would be making a historic mistake to go into coalition. Do the numbers allow Fine Gael to form a coalition with anyone else?

The overall maj is 84, and FG could attain this with right-leaning independent support... The only problem is a lot of the 'other' vote is left-leaning, so a FG/Inds government is unlikely.

The best outcome would be a FF/FG government, that would lead to them merging, resulting in a real left/right split!

Fine Gael couldn't go into coalition with the party that the electorate have clearly voted against.

I just think Labour would be making an error as they will allow FF to come back if they go into government

what's the overall maj number in the Dail?

But what a result if the Sinners overtake FF. Labour would be making a historic mistake to go into coalition. Do the numbers allow Fine Gael to form a coalition with anyone else?


83 + 1 is the magic number for an overall majority (could still happen but unlikely).

FG could do a deal with like minded Independents but it may regard them as too high maintenance.

Overall this is a seismic election. It's hard to take it all in. The 31st Dáil will be a weird one that's for sure.

And alot remains to be seen. Mary Hanafin and Barry Andrews (cabinet ministers) of FF both going to be eliminated in Dublin South East by the looks of things. The Tániste, Mary Couglan, is in real trouble in Donegal South West. Just how bad this is going to get for Fianna Fáil remains to be seen. But atm they are being obliterated. I see it's being labelled the "pencil revolution"...the collapse of their vote is really stunning.


For Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin it's historic. FG will be the largest party in Ireland for the first time ever believe it or not.

Live coverage on RTE and TV3 throughout the night if your an election junkie.

http://www.rte.ie/news/

www.tv3.ie

Gerry Adams has topped the poll in County Louth.

Fine Gael couldn't go into coalition with the party that the electorate have clearly voted against.

I just think Labour would be making an error as they will allow FF to come back if they go into government

Oh, I know FF/FG would never happen, but it would best for Irish politics in the long-term.


Unfortunately, the numbers may mean there's no real alternative to a fg/lab government...

My mind today is on the party, but of course a Labour voice in government would be in the interest of social progression, in Ireland.

why couldn't they support the budgets but do what they do in the Scottish parliament?

The thing is FF essentially stand for nothing, so their vote could easily tranfer to Labour and Fine Gael along a left/right divide of the party!

The thing is FF essentially stand for nothing, so their vote could easily tranfer to Labour and Fine Gael along a left/right divide of the party!

This is where things start to get interesting. The transfers. Good luck! ;)

and obviously this is rather unpredictable because how often is it that FF are eliminated, who knows where those second preferences would end up?

and obviously this is rather unpredictable because how often is it that FF are eliminated, who knows where those second preferences would end up?

Other FF candidates will take preferences first id imagine. Later preferences will probrably go to FG. But it is impossible to tell. That's why I like PR.

why couldn't they support the budgets but do what they do in the Scottish parliament?

FG are planning to cut welfare, bring an axe to the public sector, and seriously damage the domestic economy...

In real terms, Labour could never support budgets advanced by a FG government.

The only hope Labour can get from entering a coalition with FG would be an advance in social issues, like a review of school patronage, upgrading civil partnership to same-sex marriage and attempts to encourage greater female participation etc.

This is where things start to get interesting. The transfers. Good luck! ;)

The thing that has struck me more than anything, during the canvass, is the complete lack of knowledge among the masses about politics, policies and basic ideologies...

If Labour go into coalition, with fg, they should lobby hard for greater civic education at primary and secondary level... This is the real key to creating a left/right realignment in Irish politics!

FG are planning to cut welfare, bring an axe to the public sector, and seriously damage the domestic economy...

In real terms, Labour could never support budgets advanced by a FG government.




Mary O'Rourke has just lost her seat. Now that is a sign of just how toxic the FF brand is. Extraordinary. She was shocked. Brian Lenihan has just been elected but not by much.

They shouldn't allow themselves to be the Quislings any longer. They are now the second largest party in Irish politics and don't need to put up with things they don't like. They should stay in opposition and allow Fine Gael to skewer themselves.

They shouldn't allow themselves to be the Quislings any longer. They are now the second largest party in Irish politics and don't need to put up with things they don't like. They should stay in opposition and allow Fine Gael to skewer themselves.

Your assuming FG are going to be punished for taking unpopular decisions. On the contrary people know what they are voting for. FG will cut before it taxes. That's clearly what the majority of voters want. This is not the first time FG has had to come in to clean up a FF mess. I think alot of people would see FG as being more then able to square up to that other vested interest group culpable in what has happened here - the Trade Union Movement.

I'm loving these results. Mary O'Rourke (the media whore) losing her seat and only one FF seat in Dublin being the highlights.

I'm with nordisk on this one, I want Labour in power for their social policies.

edit: Also, the left (Labour, SF, ULA, some independents) are doing well; probably the best result for the Irish left ever.

Mary Coughlan eliminated! :banana:

Very rare for a deputy PM to be voted out like that in any country.

Here we go, we'll have a decade where FG will be in power because they can do whatever they like under the guise that it's FF's fault for screwing the economy. Whilst in the meant time they did nothing to halt the deficit or oppose the EU/IMF deal. Would have done just the same. However I would still vote for FG in this election. Their policies seem most useful but if they break pledges like pulling cut's on things that shouldn't be cut then I won't be backing them with that. If they try and break election promises like the tories and Lib dem's did all with the excuse that Labour had bankrupt the nation, then I will just turn to Irish Labour.

Counting continues and im watching it on tv but so tired im close to collapse. Good luck all. Night.


Currently FG have 50 seats.

It's only the Irish Election lol

.......yeah and this is the Ireland forum. So get lost and stop trolling.

http://www.tv3.ie/shows.php?request=tonightwithvincentbrowne&tv3_preview=&video=32967


Ganley v Fger:)

http://www.tv3.ie/shows.php?request=tonightwithvincentbrowne&tv3_preview=&video=32967


Ganley v Fger:)

Thankfully he (Bill Tormey) didn't win a seat.

In fact, his constituency (Dublin North West (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/dublin-north-west.html)) is the only one not to have any FF or FG TDs (2 LAB, 1 SF).

Currently: FG 64, LAB 33, FF 16, SF 13, SP 2, PBP 1, IND 11, GP 0.

Still no deal between FG and Labour. It may be pushed back till Tuesday for a deal.

...

Updated: 13:55, Sunday, 6 March 2011

Fine Gael and Labour Party are putting the final touches to a programme for Government that will be put to meetings of both parties at 2pm this afternoon.

It is understood that the Department of Finance will be split into two parts.

One ministry will handle fiscal planning and the banks. The other will deal with public service reform and the estimates process.

Labour will occupy one of those departments and Fine Gael the other, with Labour tipped for public service reform.

There will be an economic council within the Cabinet, with two members from each party to make recommendations and take key decisions.

There will be what sources are calling a jobs budget, containing employment boosting measures, within months of the Government taking office.

There are a range of compromises in the Coalition document.

The deficit reduction target is now 2015, midway between the Labour and Fine Gael positions, with similar deals on cutting public service numbers.

Labour is claiming victory in areas such as social welfare, where party sources say there will be no cuts, and education, where the party says the idea of a graduate tax has been ditched.

There will also be a significant restructuring of Government Departments and reform of the decision-making process.

Fine Gael's Phil Hogan said the new Government will stick to the fiscal targets laid down in the EU/IMF bailout.

Speaking on RTÉ's This week, Mr Hogan said: 'We will see very strong fiscal policy in the document which ties us into the parameters laid down by the EU/IMF, notwithstanding the fact that we want to see that renegotiated.'



Party leaders welcome agreement

Party leaders Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore announced a broad agreement last night on a plan to form a Coalition in the 31st Dáil.


Mr Kenny said he was happy they had concluded an agreement and described the negotiations as businesslike.

Mr Gilmore said he intends to recommend the package to the special Labour delegate conference this afternoon.

In relation to the number of ministers each party will have, Mr Gilmore said that will be decided before the Dáil meets on Wednesday.

The two men had arrived at Government Buildings yesterday afternoon.

They had a number of face-to-face meetings to resolve outstanding issues between their negotiation teams.

The Fine Gael Parliamentary Party will meet in the Shelbourne Hotel in Dublin, while the Labour conference will be held in the O'Reilly Hall at UCD.

Both meetings are scheduled to get under way at 2pm this afternoon, with Labour due to vote on the deal at around 5pm.

Party leader Eamon Gilmore will propose the motion and Brendan Howlin will second the motion.

Members of the Labour Parliamentary Party have concluded a meeting ahead of the conference.


http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0306/politics.html

Why are Fine Gael negotiating with Labour when they could easily form a government by themselves?

Why are Fine Gael negotiating with Labour when they could easily form a government by themselves?

Only if they got seven other TDs to agree with them which would create a very unstable government.

The Programme for Government can be found here (http://www.labour.ie/download/pdf/programme_for_national_government.pdf).

A lot of good stuff in it!

They are going to have a big majority. They can do pretty much what they like together. A FG single party Government propped up by "high maintenance" independents would not be as stable. Labour can blunt FG's conservative right wing instincts. You could even call it a National Government because it is a wide spectrum of right and left wing views.


I wonder who will get what cabinet posistion - care to make a prediction? Some big hitters for FG are going to lose out.

I wonder who will get what cabinet posistion - care to make a prediction? Some big hitters for FG are going to lose out.

Not overly fussed, as long as it's a 9-6 breakdown.:)

Let's hope Fine Gael govern better then they drive ;)

VsVINi2ZM5Y


What bright TD was that?

I wonder if policies enacted by an hypothetical Fine Gael/Labour coalition would end up costing them politically, thus allowing FF to scramble back into power.

^^

It's very much a possibilty, and is more likely to damage the Labour party!!!





Let's hope Fine Gael govern better then they drive ;)

VsVINi2ZM5Y


What bright TD was that?

Mary Mitchell O'Connor; a Fine Gaeler of course... To think she deprived Ivana Bacik of a seat is almost heartbreaking!!!

Did you see that program on RTE last night following candidates on the canvass and in the counts? That Luke Ming Flanagan is interesting.


"Im going to have a joint tonight with the approval of the whole constituency"