Im curious, would Darwin one day exceed the population of Cairns and Townsville to become Northern Australia's largest city? I know that statistics point to Townsville as being Australia's largest tropical city, followed by Cairns. What resources has Darwin got that can rival that of Cairns and Townsville? I am aware that Darwin has recieved a major kick start with the opening of the Ghan passenger train service.
ABS estimates have Darwin at 68,516*, Townsville 95,837*, Cairns 122,192*

Will Darwin ever Overtake Cairns and Townsville?

*http://www.abs.gov.au/Websitedbs/c311215.nsf/20564c23f3183fdaca25672100813ef1/3c556306c6a3b803ca256b5500799b10!OpenDocument#Untitled%20Section_5

cairns feels so much bigger because of the big tourism market!

Well, those figures are just the Local Government Area's of the central areas of those cities Cairnsinite, the populations of the actual statistical districts, or metro areas are more like this (as at 30, June, 2003):

Townsville: 140,600
Cairns: 117,400
Darwin: 107,922

So they're actually fairly close together in population! I guess it all depends on the growth rate really - Darwin's was the slowest growth rate of all our capital cities in the 2002/2003 year at only 0.2%, compared to 2.4% in Carins and 2.2% in Townsville!

Of course, this should change in Darwin what with the new capital infrastructure including the arrival of the Adelaide railway and the upcoming harbour redevelopment. Although Townsville was growing slightly slower than Cairns that year, it has grown much more consistently over the past 5 years due to its relatively diverse economy, as opposed to that of Cairns, which is dependant on the tourism industry. So I would say that the three cities will maintain their current rankings for at leats the next 10 years.

The breakdown of LGA's for each of the cities (estimated June 2003) from this ABS page (http://www.abs.gov.au/Websitedbs/c311215.nsf/20564c23f3183fdaca25672100813ef1/3c556306c6a3b803ca256b5500799b10!OpenDocument#Untitled%20Section_1)

Cairns City 122,192
Cairns Total: 122,192

Townsville City 95,837
Thuringowa City 55,888
Townsville Total: 151,725

Darwin City 68,516
Palmerston City 23,078
Litchfield Shire 15, 888
Darwin Total: 107,482

I think one has to consider that Darwin is a 'Gateway City' for trade and shipping links to South East Asia. Just as Sydney is the gateway to Pacific and it grew due to links from the port, and Perth has grown also due to Fremantle and its shipping links with the Indian Ocean. Darwin is on track to be a capital city of business and commerce,it will go from strength to strength and it will be interesting to know how long it will take to reach 500k people.

I think Darwin could become a very large city if the local politicians played their cards right, Property is cheap, Weathers always good and its really close to Asia.. If Nt started an advertising campaign in Asia, I think darwin would double its population within years.

Property is cheap

I saw the tail end of an auction of a Darwin house on Hot Property or something and it looked like a pretty big house & it went for $150k I think! Great publicity for the local market.

Here's an article (http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/B70B578965453B57CA256A9400814AFD) from the ABS which says Darwins pop should increase to between 126,500 and 184,500 by 2021.

In the year 2060 Darwin will be bigger than many Australian cities I suggest.

by then your tropica plan may be built:D

One would've thought by now business would be booming in Darwin due to its prime position near asia. Once the capital cities become over developed, polluted and so on will the invasion of foreigners and southern investors into Darwin start. :runaway: :bash: :cheers:

Well I dont know but being a Townsville resident, I would say that because our population had just reached 155 000 (151 000 June 2003), that Darwin will have no chance of surpassing Townsville within the next two Decades or so. Cairns on the Other hand could probably surpass Townsville within the next decade after a growth was recorded of an average 7000 people a year along with Townsville's 4000 a year. That will keep that Idiot Kevin Byrne happy.

That will keep that Idiot Kevin Byrne happy.
:bash: :runaway: :weirdo: :eek2:
Mayor Kevin Byrne has alot ot be happy about, Cairns recently won the Australian Basketball Championships beating west Tasmania in Dandenong, Cairns has one of the best convention centres in Australia, there was a Cairns lad that went over to play baseball with the Australian side at the Athens Olympic Games. What about Tony Mooney? The only thing mayor Mooney & Tyrrell can be happy about is the Cowboys cos thier Townsvillians, they live and play in Townsville. Wish they would stop shoving them down our throats, the only time they come to Cairns is to try and attract more supporters but unfortunately they have along way to go in winning the hearts of Cairns people. Not to mention that his city is slowing turning into the concrete jungle capital of North Queensland, might find him one day just like Tarzan swinging through Townsville on a steel vine attached to Castle Hill.

Hey hey hey, competition is only good when it's friendly!
Cairnsinite, you need to throw that Cairns Post away and start reading other varieties of newspaper. In fact, Natalie Porter (who won Silver in Athens with the Australian Opals Womens Basketball team) and Robert Hammond (who just arrived back in Townsville today, with a GOLD MEDAL in hockey!) both live and work in Townsville.

So there ya go.

Cairns 1 - Townsville 2

By the way, isn't this forum on "skyscrapers"? Green trees and lush rainforest won't get you marks here.

There's my two cents.

...Weathers always good...
Are you kidding? Its always raining, there are always thunder stoms and its always humid! Taht to me does not indicate good weather.

Darwin has a wet and dry seasonal climate, same as north Queensland. The dry season is from May through to November.

I would have though that cairns would be one of the bigger ones and given its international draw card and location would make it more incline to grow.

A lot of people are really turned off Cairns as a place to live because of the vast amount of tourists. Then again people are turned off Darwin beacuse of the climate, what with oppresiive humidity and storms most afternoons in summer and turned off Townsville because they consider it an industrial hellhole or basically just a hole (which its not :) )

To ask, Cairnsinite. At least Tony Mooney doesn't start whinning about if Cairns got funding for some cheap dam upgrade like Byrne did earlier this year when We got State funding of about $70m to get a dam upgrade, meanwhile Cairns has $600 million added due to some Kuranda Range project.

Are you kidding? Its always raining, there are always thunder stoms and its always humid! Taht to me does not indicate good weather.

Compare that to the monsoons of south east asia and its a bloody paradise.
But yeah, My dad lived there in the 70's and loved it, I'd take his word hes lived in alot of places.

In regard to the original query, I feel Darwin can in 30 to 40 years aim to house over 1 million people. It should take advantage of its location to Asia.
Fabulous harbour (Hong Kong like) should aim for a Miami skyline...

I dont think Darwin should aim for a Miami like skyline, But at least it should try and aim for a small beachside skyline like the one of Cairns or The Marina project of Mackay.

intresting idea as it is far closer than any other city to that region
i mean compare to Syd and Mel Tucked away at the lower part of Australian main land

In regard to the original query, I feel Darwin can in 30 to 40 years aim to house over 1 million people. It should take advantage of its location to Asia.
Fabulous harbour (Hong Kong like) should aim for a Miami skyline...


A population of 1 million people requires alot of fresh drinking water. Where do you suppose it would all come from?

The Ord River Dam in the Kimberly Region of WA is 8 times the size of Sydney Harbour.Also NT could build more dams.

A population of 1 million people requires alot of fresh drinking water. Where do you suppose it would all come from?

kota16
The Ord River Dam in the Kimberly Region of WA is 8 times the size of Sydney Harbour.Also NT could build more dams.

just what i was thinking

The answer is pretty simple IMO, Darwin WON'T overtake either Cairns or Townsville anytime too soon, if at all.

In the near future, without a change to immigration policy, Darwin would be smaller than Cairns and Townsville.

If you think about it. Darwin could of have been bigger than Townsville or Cairns now. But thats if Cyclone Tracy and Japanese bombing in WWII. Darwin could have been nearly 200'000 now. but yet again Darwin is technically bigger that Townsville as Its City council area population is bigger than Townsville's Council area.

well Darwin has had it hard a number of times
+ its isolation have not helped
but them the facts can't change the past.
As far as mirgration goes what attracts or would attact people to darwin ?

Yeah, That's true too.

In regard to the original query, I feel Darwin can in 30 to 40 years aim to house over 1 million people. It should take advantage of its location to Asia.
Fabulous harbour (Hong Kong like) should aim for a Miami skyline...

I agree, go the whole hog or go home.

I think my tower should go up, they shold canal the crap out of the place and create a Fort Lauderdale style watery lifestyle with a glitzy asian style skyline. Create something original by appropriating ideas from around the world such as like what they are doing in Dubai with their new estates etc.

It would be great to see a massive city of several million residents on asia's doorstep and would bring all of Australia much closer to the action. Hell I'd rather live somewhere with that type of weather and still have the opportunity of living in an Australian metropolis.

I'd like to see a space port some major naval bases and a massive port facility.

After all it is close to asia and if you wish to attract asian business and wealth I would think it more approriate to partly emulate the style so popular with many of our asian neighbours. Who wants another Sunshine Coast - so boring. We need a shiny, glitering tropical metropolis and somethimg a little grand and tacky to attract people - esp those from China and HK and also from our own southern states. There is no point copying what we have - we need a new flavour, a new gimick and a new major city.

I agree with you Avatar, Darwin is really like a tropical island, and the money people from Hong Kong and Singapore will quickly realise that Melbourne is not the only place to invest.As they say, Rome was not built in a day. :)

For those newbies that have not yet had the pleasure...

My I present Tropica, A vision in lilac reflective glass and some heavy competition to that god aweful tower going up in Jakarta.
http://home.iprimus.com.au/allicit/Images/DarwinCity.01.jpg

Just for those that don't know I have had premonitions of Darwin in the future. Let's just say Darwin was like paradise and home to much of the Australian poplation - a serene watery paradise, developing after a major nuclear war. Very venice/fort lauderdale and vast areas of tropical canal estates. Boats, sun, and of course some tall buildings. The place was massive but amazingly very relaxed and extremely quiet for a thriving metropolis.

In the strange dream i also found myself in Sydney on an imperial style shuttle craft surveying city damage, using geiger counters and looking to re-establish habitation after many ,many years of abaondonment.

Strange dream...

Avatar like your idea of a different style of city but dont see it happening

Nor do I australia is far too conservative and sees no value in the creation of a major tropical metropolis.

Are you sure about that Avatar?. Why do so many Aussies take the 9 hour jet to Honolulu, another tropical city by the sea.

I was refering to government not the citizens. Im sure if we had it, Australians would embrace our own tropical city paradise.

If I was in the federal government I'd look at setting up a new metropolis with generous incentives, possibly even alter the tax arrangements and set up a tax free city state - something different that would attract major investment.

they dont seem to be intrested in creating another city

Are you kidding? Its always raining, there are always thunder stoms and its always humid! Taht to me does not indicate good weather.

The only thing better is the weather of KL and Singapore. What is not to love about constant heat, humidity and thunderstorms - I can think of nothing better weatherwise.

constant heat is not a good thing at all
but at least in the troppical you have the contant change in weather
still darwin is just to isolated to have major growth

Trances: Growth depends on investment
Investment depends on potential and resources
As far as i'm concerned Darwin has both
The only reason why Darwin(and NT) is so underdeveloped
is the fed govt which for so many years have shown us nothing
but lack of Vision.
Pop of Aus leveling out at 25 mil in 30 years??? I guess NT's share of that would be half a mil or something?

Bull****.
Populate or perish I say.

LOL don't blame the Federal Gov, under labour it would be no different!

Most Australians would not be interested in flooding money into the NT where most people would see little potential. The NT should possibly show a little more vision too and maybe then attention would be gained from the south-eastern states and its money.

I do agree the federal Gov needs to do more - it would be a win win situation for everyone to have a massive city up there.

could be a project to spend that surplus of what... 3-6 Billion they make each year on?

Avatar: Don't forget NT is not a state.
It's always relyed on Canberra for money
and development.
The lack of vision by Darwin polititians is understandable
since 50% of their time is consumed by fighting the aboriginal council of NT
The place needs some sort of Dubai approach(not on their scale though)
to development, and I do agree that whould've been a win-win scenario
if we got ourselves an international buisness hub up there in 20-30 years.

Avatar: Don't forget NT is not a state.
It's always relyed on Canberra for money
and development.
The lack of vision by Darwin polititians is understandable
since 50% of their time is consumed by fighting the aboriginal council of NT
The place needs some sort of Dubai approach(not on their scale though)
to development, and I do agree that whould've been a win-win scenario
if we got ourselves an international buisness hub up there in 20-30 years.


Actually you are right! Come to think of it I forgot about the Aboriginals... sorry but I wish they would just STFU. Not that I wish to be disrespectful BUT they are turning this whole country into a NIMBY/greenie's paradise. :(

Get rid of land claims and get rid of bullshit redtape.

Until this crap is sorted out there will be no world metropolis and gateway to asia on our northern shores.

Avatar:Aboriginal council is only part of the problem(althou directly related to
fed govts of the past policies)
The second problem is the local think-small attitudes
How much ambition do you expect from a place half the size of Tasmania
ridden in corruption and local feuds?
Its up to the Commonwelth to sort this place out

Can't help but compare Tauranga Mt Maunganui to Cities discussed in this thread ,Yes I Know the weather isn't the same , however this Kiwi skyscraper city has so many comparisons , its approx same size 106,000 , growing at 3500 residents per year , has largest export port in NZ ,light and heavy industry , is a commercial base ,great beaches and harbour etc check out its thread . :)

http://www.tauranga.co.nz/images/aerial2.jpg

never heard of that place in NZ

With the arrival of the Ghan, Darwin is sure to boom as southern investors start to utilize the ghan

I think it will be a very very long time till Darwin overtakes Cairns and Townsville. Business is starting to pick up now that Darwin is connected to the rest of Australia by rail. In time i believe Darwin will play a major role in dealing with south east asia.

ru a darwinite? if so, welcome to the first much needed darwinite!:D

The Ghan to me seems no more then a tourist attraction, It's cheaper to fly to Darwin from Anywhere in Australia then it is to catch the ghan.

so how about the ghan line for rail goods transport
what the current use ?

According to Freightlink the rail operator, 71% of traffic between Adelaide and Darwin is now by rail. Freightlink is on track to be financially viable by 2008, when volumes are expected to reach 800,000 tonnes. In the first six months Freightlink moved 200,000 tonnes, of a first year target of 350,000 tonnes. The giant Swire group has offered 4 shuttle shipping services a month to Singapore, and another shipping line wants to service the port, Trials to build international trade had so far attracted 8500 tonnes of agricultural goods for export.It will take about 3 years before this trade route is built properly. In the meantime 'The Ghan' train has carried 30,000 passengers in first 6 months and sold over $30m in passenger sales. Next year it will have 2 services per week.

^^ interesting to see things on this line take shape. I remember there was some claims from a competing rail boss that the whole thing was a waste of time and that there would never be any significant freight railed to Darwin for shipping overseas.

If this goes well enough hopefully it will be a boost for the proposed Melbourne to Darwin via east coast route. And if that gets built, I'd love to see the combined effect that both rail routes would have on Darwin's economy.

well then I hope its on it may as major port
how come no talks about kick starting that ?
Whos responabity would that be any way

The proposed route from Brisbane to Darwin will go from Brisbane via Toowoomba, Miles, Moura, Emerald, Cloncurry and Mt Isa where it will junction at Tennant Creek with the Alice Springs to Darwin railway.(This is 950 km south of Darwin). It has the backing of Federal Govt, and a major investor is Chris Corrigan of PacificNational who owns a large chunk of VirginBlue Airlines. It will be standard gauge, and known as the Australian Inland Rail Expressway (AIRE).

will the one from brisbane be the same one jellyman mentioned that will run down the east coast eventually reaching melbourne?

Yes, by connecting some lines inland there will be a faster connection from Brisbane south to Melbourne. After Toowoomba it will traverse Goondiwindi, Moree, Narrabri, Gunnedah, Dubbo, Parkes, Stockinbingal, Wagga Wagga, and Albury to Melbourne. There will also be a new connection from Moura to Gladstone in QLD.

ru a darwinite? if so, welcome to the first much needed darwinite!:D

Yes i am, and thank you. Territorians have been pretty slack with postings, dont know why.Must be the weather (lol)

The ATEC proposal is on the rocks. For a while the concern was that it was being held up by issues between ARTC (national rail track manager) and NSW rail. These have been resolved for a few months, but there is still no action. Well they did announce the imminent start of construction of a leg between Toowoomba and Gladstone (driven by coal deposits west of Toowoomba). But they've made similar announcements before that have come to nothing.

Also Patrick have announced a competing bid, which is the one Chris Corrigan is backing. He had been backing ATEC. I thought AIRE was the one proposed by ATEC, but maybe its the new one backed by Patrick.

Also Queensland Rail want to get in on the act, but I've only heard the vaguest rumours about this and now nothing of interest. I have a suspicion that being a govt owned corporation we may have serious problems raising the necessary capital.

Yes i am, and thank you. Territorians have been pretty slack with postings, dont know why.Must be the weather (lol)
Hi Roberta, yes its great that you have arrived on the forum. Hope you have a digital camera, or plan to do some posting of pics from Darwin.We are all sticky beaks and want to see what is happening there.

Darwin has the infrastructure in place and now needs to strenghten it. Gone are the days when Darwin was a sleepy hollow, Darwin i believe is now on the verge of a boom; Palmerston and surrounding shires are now starting to grow. Governments are starting to realise the importance of Darwin as Australia's Northern Frontline in terms of Defence and trade with SE Asia. :)

Cairns and Townsville also has that same Infrastructure as Darwin except with Cairns, Its more Tourism from and to SE Asia and Federal Police in terms of Defence. But with Townsville its more Army, Air force in Defence and Shipping to and from SE Asia (Trade). Cairns does the same thing with their port.

when will townsville or cairns get a rail network.

Townsville used to have suburban trains, although you couldn't call it a network - it was just a bunch of stations along the existing rail line. I think it was popular before cars were common or the roads were any good.

The bus network in Darwin looks a lot better than Townsville or Cairns, just by looking at the route maps and timetables.

There was also some talk about Two years ago that QR was planning to set up a City Rail service on the existing line from Rollingstone to Alligator creek. Anyway, if it were to extend into the suburbs, then we would have Australia's biggest Subway network as there is not enough space to cater for above ground services. If there was an above ground line. It'll be from about Bohle to Thuringowa Central or about Dairy Farmers.

Townsville used to have suburban trains, although you couldn't call it a network - it was just a bunch of stations along the existing rail line. I think it was popular before cars were common or the roads were any good.

The bus network in Darwin looks a lot better than Townsville or Cairns, just by looking at the route maps and timetables.
Cairns used to have something similar i think in the 70's, with a motorcade ( i think thats what its called, correct me if i am wrong) going from Babinda into Cairns, mainly for the railway workers to hitch a ride :)

The bus network in Darwin looks a lot better than Townsville or Cairns, just by looking at the route maps and timetables.
Yes Darwin's bus network is much better and the services are reliable :)

Didn't it also go into the Tablelands. My Dad would always talk about hitching a ride from Atherton to Cairns on the Train.

Didn't it also go into the Tablelands. My Dad would always talk about hitching a ride from Atherton to Cairns on the Train.
Probably would've i just know that it used to travel between Cairns and Babinda alot :)

He (My Dad) said that it was a motorcade. You could even tell by the evidence left at Atherton and Mareeba. Atherton is now a freight station and Mareeba still operates as part of the Savannahlander route that now (since 97 I think) is operating from Cairns to Forsayth and regulary stops at Mareeba. Tolga also has an old Rail platform. Aparrantly it finished in the 80's when my dad finished school around that time.

Having just arrived from both TSV and cairns after looking for investment properties, I can say that I've never been to Darwin. From studies and its surrounding environment, Darwin could accomodate more than these cities. Its location as Australia's SE Asian gateway city, could and should act the same economic, cultural, social values than what Miami does for the US! :)
Imagine the skyline, most of which must withstand cyclonic winds.....

That is true. Miami International Aiport gets around 30 million people a year and around half of this is from South/Central America (Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina etc) and the diversity within that city is quite large. Every where you go there, you'll see a mix of Different Cultural backgrounds. Darwin could be like that in a few years time.

The latest post in Darwin section of new 33 story 'Evolution Tower' is very exciting, and it will start in April 2005 and be completed in 2006. Check it out.

Evolution tower will definitely steal the title for Northern Australia's largest building from Townsville's Holiday Inn.
However Townsville-Thuringowa will still hold the title of Australia's largest tropical city.
Its good to see Darwin has finally come of age, It is very doubtful that 30+ storey buildings will be built in Cairns due to the flight path and height restrictions, However Townsville could suprise us and go one better than Darwin...who knows

Probably, Cairns would be able to have 30+ buildings in the CBD but not down the Esplanade. The Flight Path does come bloody low. The last time I was in Cairns, I was in the car with my family going to Kuranda, we were going down McLeod Street and then this Qantas A330 just flies right over the top of us and all the other cars going down the CCH and McLeod Street, quite low really.

Mayor Kevin Byrne has vowed that Cairns will never become another Gold Coast but will be a nice, small city and easy going.
But its impossible as you cant really stop a city from growing.
I doubt Cairns will ever have 30+ storey buildings in the near future however i am pretty confident Mareeba and port douglass may accomodate them in the near future :)

Mareeba maybe a couple of small 10 storey ones in the near future but Port Douglas is the one I'm sure will probably get the 20-30s ones.

the pelican brief

stopping cities growing is dumb. If the people living their want that lifestyle they should move to smaller towns when the one they choose grows too much.

Infact go to rockhampton, its declining in pop lol, no worries there.

QLD seems to be accomodating skyscrapers in the most diverse range of places (ie not like NSW where all scrapers are in and around sydney)

So are you the new Blend Malt.

Here is a bit of unconfirmed news from the grape vine:
A family friend who lives in Darwin, said the Darwin City Council,Palmerston City Council and Litchfield Shire Council are exploring options of whether amalgamating to Form a Metropolitan Darwin would bring benefits to The Darwin Community and its economic activities

sounds cool.

It will still be about 116 000 people in population.

This is an excellent idea, like Gold Coast, Geelong etc.I hope it happens.

It is quite a good Idea, infact, everytime there's talk of Townsville and Thuringowa amalgamating, the mayor's just dodge it and say something like talks never happened.

^ They may as well.

If they did then people will always say that Townsville will be 156 000 or so instead of the 97 000 which people always say it is which it is though but not the metro.

If Townsville and Thuringowa did amalgamate, It may put Townsville in third place as Australia's largest local government area (Behind Mount Isa and Brisbane).
That would then mean Townsville would start from Crystal Creek (bordering with Hinchinbrook Shire in the north) and stretch right down near AYR (bordering with Burdekin Shire in the south) and from Maggie Island to near reed river (bordering with Dalrymple shire in the west, near or around about woodstock).
Gee thats a pretty big area when you look at it, however judging by Thuringowans' attitude i dont think their too keen on the idea just yet.
Cairns and Mulgrave amalgamated in 1995, the state government was the major driving force behind it both Tom Pyne (Mulgrave mayor at the time) and Kevin Byrne (mayor of Cairns at the time) both contested for the mayoral seat of Cairns, Tom Pyne won, kept the job for a few years and Kevin Byrne won back the position.

More like just before Giru to the South but still pretty much right.

Back too darwin that idea is great

Back too darwin that idea is great
pete its only unconfirmed goss from the grapevine, who knows what could happen in the next 5-10 years

Either way, we now have a new Tallest, only by Roof though, And it looks like we will probably have another one after that.

Here's a map of the changing local government boundaries of Townsville - it's from Thuringowa's perspective (to ... means it was taken away from Thuringowa while from ... means it was given to Thuringowa and the years are when it was transfered from Townsville to Thuringowa

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v376/Oriolus/ThurSmall.jpg

Check out how small Townsville was. It's just been growing into Thuringowa since.

But however, it was true, Woodstock and the Brdiken were part of the Old Thuringowa Shire until it became a city.

As far as I'm concerned, the main reason I wouldn't live in any of those cities is mainly due to the bad climate. I'm sure the sunny days eventually get boring and wear you down in the thick humidity of the day. Besides there's nothing worse than trying to get to sleep in a hot humid night.

As for this debate, Darwin has a much more appealing name than Townsville. Townsville suggests a small village, darwin is a slightly more adventurous name.

I'll take Hobart anyday!

As for this debate, Darwin has a much more appealing name than Townsville. Townsville suggests a small village, darwin is a slightly more adventurous name.

I'll take Hobart anyday!
Does not Townsville take its name from founder Robert Towns ?. So what is in a name!.

Does not Townsville take its name from founder Robert Towns ?

Certainly does. He was the Sydney businessman that financed Townsville's establishment. Towns Pl, at Millers Point in the Sydney CBD, is named after him as well.

i didnt understand that map

Well that whole area was once part of Thuringowa except the red for original Townsville and over the years about two thirds of Thuringowa has been given to other LGA's (the green is Burdekin)

Having just arrived from both TSV and cairns after looking for investment properties, I can say that I've never been to Darwin. From studies and its surrounding environment, Darwin could accomodate more than these cities. Its location as Australia's SE Asian gateway city, could and should act the same economic, cultural, social values than what Miami does for the US! :)
Imagine the skyline, most of which must withstand cyclonic winds.....

Are you going to fund this idea? Though, it sounds great.

Most buildings in Cairns and Townsville and especially Darwin have High-rises that are designed to withstand Cyclonic Conditions.

Most buildings in Cairns and Townsville and especially Darwin have High-rises that are designed to withstand Cyclonic Conditions.

The 'new tall' in Darwin had these built into its foundations.

Darwin's Buildings may be put to the test again with Ingrid coming up soon. Its Cat 5 and will give Darwin a good Test.

a family relative told me that they had to scale down a little on the 33 storey evolution tower for Darwin. Think they had to drop some floors

It was intended to be 35 levels, so they dropped down to 33.

Probably due to the Height Limit in Darwin's CBD probably even if they have one.

Darwin has alot of potential; a port for Australia to South-East Asia, capital city, great lifestyle and weather(?). But then again, both Townsville and Cairns has potentials too ;)

Weather, Not really, good Monsoonal rain in the wet season, but Townsville and Cairns seems to have alot more sunny days (and less severe cyclones at that too :D) than Darwin, Lifestyles are probably the same for all cities but just a few different features (but I wouldn't know, I'm just some Teenage surburbanite) and we all have ports that serve SE Asia.

good to see that Darwin emerged undamaged from Cyclone Monica. Would've had devastating effects for the Territorians, its sad to see the damage that Larry has caused to Innisfail and not to mention the after shocks with bananas @ sky high prices :eek2:

Yes, Darwin will definietly overtake

^^ With the activity happening up there now, its a definete thing, but i don't think it will until the next 5-10 at a minimum, For the Time being, Townsville will be on top,

Townsville will stay on top, and this population centre around NQ (i.e. lack of isolation) will help keep Cairns on top. I know there is a large distance between them (Townsville, Mackay and Cairns), but I think this could have an effect. If Uranium mining goes gunhoe though, it'll help NT/Darwin, NQ/Cairns/Townsville/Mackay and CQ/Rockhampton/Gladstone.

In terms of Retail developments, I noticed both Townsville and Darwin have wow sight and sound but not Cairns (maybe in the near future)... however Cairns has Myer but not Darwin and Townsville (and yes i am aware Myer is looking at Townsville at the moment:) )... Both cities have all the leading hardware/electrical/grocery stores etc. However Domain Central makes Townsville a retail super power.

In terms of shopping centres both Cairns and Darwin have the upper hand with Cairns Central and Casuarina Square. Townsville would have more smaller suburban centres ( such as Annandale, bamford lane, rising sun etc) along with Stockland, Willows & Castletown.

Castletown is under redevelopment at the moment, Willows will follow soon. Still, they're not going to be the size of Cairns Central. Domain Central is still U/C, by the time it's finished will be the largest home maker centre in Australia, it's a pretty massive complex.

In terms of Retail developments, I noticed both Townsville and Darwin have wow sight and sound but not Cairns (maybe in the near future)...
Wow sight and sound are currently looking at building a store in Cairns...somewhere on mulgrave rd

In terms of Retail developments, I noticed both Townsville and Darwin have wow sight and sound but not Cairns (maybe in the near future)... however Cairns has Myer but not Darwin and Townsville (and yes i am aware Myer is looking at Townsville at the moment )... Both cities have all the leading hardware/electrical/grocery stores etc. However Domain Central makes Townsville a retail super power.

In terms of shopping centres both Cairns and Darwin have the upper hand with Cairns Central and Casuarina Square. Townsville would have more smaller suburban centres ( such as Annandale, bamford lane, rising sun etc) along with Stockland, Willows & Castletown.

There is also another shopping centre that has only recently just started construction (wouldn't really call it construction, just clearing but thats what it says) near Fairfield Waters on the Highway. It'll be built in many stages with the first stage intially housing a Woolworths and a few shops, eventually housing a Big W and up to 50 Specialty stores, but though lately i've been hearing that it'll be bigger than Willows.

Holy shit, both Ferd and Cairsinite are back.
Also JB Hi-Fi have also expressed their interest in Townsville and Darwin as well.

Forget Cairns, Darwin is probably going to overtake Adelaide.

I cant speak for Townsville as I havent been there for 17 years, but if it was between Cairns and Darwin I would have to say that Darwin is likely to overtake without doubt. I went to Darwin for the first time last year and going back again next month, and I have just come back from my first trip to Cairns and I have to say that there are alot of similarities. Both are friendly cities, easy to navigate, huge amounts of tourism, plenty of development, airports that affect the height growth of the CBDs, and plenty of crocodiles!!

I think Darwin has been doing its groundwork quietly for a long time, if the local and state governtment are sensible they could quite easily fund more infrastructure to accomodate any kind of boom and there certainly isnt a lack of space.

I think if Cairns and Townsville were better connected (especially by road - lets hope it happens soon) then it would be very advantageous to both cities to work together a little bit better, at the moment it seems like a rivalry that does neither place any good.

Holy shit, both Ferd and Cairsinite are back.
Also JB Hi-Fi have also expressed their interest in Townsville and Darwin as well.

Darwin's had a JB Hi Fi for over a year now in Casaurina Square.

The good folk of Darwin have been begging for a Myer for years, but apparently the transport costs up here are too high......

The good folk of Darwin have been begging for a Myer for years, but apparently the transport costs up here are too high......
yeah Darwin is pretty heavily dependant on road trains...geez they are pretty mean monsters on the stuart highway...what about utilising the ghan? wouldnt that bring transport costs down a tad bit? Darwin would be an ideal location to get imports in and sell them cheaper because of its proximity to the asian markets.

I think if Cairns and Townsville were better connected (especially by road - lets hope it happens soon) then it would be very advantageous to both cities to work together a little bit better, at the moment it seems like a rivalry that does neither place any good.
*Yes the goat track that we call the Bruce Highway needs improvement between Cairns and Townsville
* Yes there is some kind of intercity rivalry between Cairns&Townsville...most of the time its not that bad with bit of fun...However it would be good if both mayors can work together to promote North Queensland.

The mayors of Townsville and Thurwingowa can't even work together, let alone Cairns!!!

yeah Darwin is pretty heavily dependant on road trains...geez they are pretty mean monsters on the stuart highway...what about utilising the ghan? wouldnt that bring transport costs down a tad bit? Darwin would be an ideal location to get imports in and sell them cheaper because of its proximity to the asian markets.

If the operators of the Darwin-Adelaide railway line are to be believed, they are already carrying 80% of the total freight on that corridor - but its done nothing to reduce the "Darwin surcharge" on everything from petrol to fruit and vegetables. And yes, they are even trying to use Darwin as an importation gateway from Asia, but apparently its cheaper to just keep the ships going around the coast to Sydney or Melbourne rather than trans-shipping it via Darwin. Still, Northline freight in combination with an Indonesian company is planning to establish a major freight forwarding hub for Indonesian goods in Darwin this year so there might be a light on the horizon.

The mayors of Townsville and Thurwingowa can't even work together, let alone Cairns!!!

Lol, I don't know where you heard that from, they work together on many issues and infrastructure projects on a regular basis, but its just more the Mayors of Cairns and Townsville. They both winge every year on which city gets more State Funding.

^^It was more an observation more than anything. The doubling up on things like fireworks and major events, Rocky Spings being built to increase the rates base in Townsville City. I could be very wrong though. What's the possibility of a merger? Personally I think this would create the greatest benefit for both/the city(ies)

^^It was more an observation more than anything. The doubling up on things like fireworks and major events, Rocky Spings being built to increase the rates base in Townsville City. I could be very wrong though. What's the possibility of a merger? Personally I think this would create the greatest benefit for both/the city(ies)
*Both Townsville and Thuringowa City Councils generally work together with the help of Townsville Enterprise. Both cities pay yearly membership although Thuringowa City Council wants Townsville enterprise to market its riverway waterfront and is looking at re-directing its membership spending into Townsville Enterprise's marketing section.
* At this stage there is a very slim chance of Townsville-Thuringowa merging...Thuringowans are generally happy with being a separate city to Townsville..(i wouldnt blame them as they've got Dairy Farmer's Stadium, riverway lagoons, and the soon to be opened new Afl/Cricket stadium at Riverway)

Northline freight in combination with an Indonesian company is planning to establish a major freight forwarding hub for Indonesian goods in Darwin this year so there might be a light on the horizon.
Yes this could be the start of something big for Darwin...whats really got me confused is why havent every major transport/logistics/shipping company as well as other big importers dont have a strong presence in Darwin? I think no-one's really looking at the big picture of being in Darwin...gee its on the door step of asian markets. By now one would've thought why hasnt Darwin because of its strategic location havent cracked it big yet? maybe a late bloomer?

Kinda hard to establish major transport activities there when there wasn't even a railway line. On one hand Darwin does have a strategic location, but on the other hand it has a very isolated location in regards to the rest of Oz.

Now that the railway line is here, making Darwin a freight and logistics hub is firmly on the government's agenda - they've even spent millions completely remodelling the port to make this happen. Unfortunately though I think they've found themselves with a bit of a chicken and egg problem, they can't bring prices down until they have more freight and they can't get more freight until they bring the prices down! At the moment their tactic seems to be to rely on bulk minerals transport on the railway to boost freight volumes to allow them to turn a profit and then they can hopefully bring down freight prices overall. The big advantage Darwin has is that shipping companies can save 4 days in transport time between Melbourne and SE Asia if they move their goods via Darwin, so the railway is also looking for niche products that need to be delivered faster.

I feel Darwin is a city thats waiting to be re-born....It withstood many things that were thrown its way e.g Cyclone Tracey...things from here on will only get better.. I say give Darwin another 15 or so years and it should be a city that can give both Townsville and Cairns some competitive edge. The main booster i believe is when Darwin has fully tapped into the asian markets..geez this could be phenominal for Darwin-Palmerston and the top end

Q: Will Darwin overtake Cairns and Townsville in the Near Future
A: Probably not population for 50 years or whatever, but in skyscrapers and their heights, ha!

Now that the railway line is here, making Darwin a freight and logistics hub is firmly on the government's agenda - they've even spent millions completely remodelling the port to make this happen. Unfortunately though I think they've found themselves with a bit of a chicken and egg problem, they can't bring prices down until they have more freight and they can't get more freight until they bring the prices down! At the moment their tactic seems to be to rely on bulk minerals transport on the railway to boost freight volumes to allow them to turn a profit and then they can hopefully bring down freight prices overall. The big advantage Darwin has is that shipping companies can save 4 days in transport time between Melbourne and SE Asia if they move their goods via Darwin, so the railway is also looking for niche products that need to be delivered faster.

Surely a logistics hub requires more than a single line?

Good going for Darwin though, they really need to open this area up, I have to say in 40 years I wouldn't mind living in some Australian tropical mega city, so they should get the ball rolling before it's too late.

Never been to Darwin, Cairns or Townsville though would love to eventually. Does the terrain allow expansion of these cities to the size of 1 million or more? If you could plan these cities to house over 1 million people what would it look like and what would be needed to do it?

With the amount of rain falling on the urban area all you need is a place to store it.

The terrain around Darwin definitely allows for expansion to a million people or more. In fact, if I remember correctly a few years back the NT government put out document something to the effect of "planning for Darwin's million person future", but I can't remember what became of it. That said, central Darwin's actually on a peninsular jutting into Darwin harbour and land there is actually quite constrained so if the city was to grow significantly the only way would be up. The land around beyond peninsular, however, is extremely flat and could accommodate a very large city indeed. That said, pretty much all the land around Darwin which is not already built on is subject to native title claims and as such its future development prospects is very much in doubt.

Cairns wouldnt be able to accomodate 1million as the surrounding land is a narrow strip between the sea and the mountain range. Townsville i reckon can to the west of the city and up north into Ingham as the land is flat however it could also accomodate to the south..can we get a comment from a Townsville forumer please.

Never been to Darwin, Cairns or Townsville though would love to eventually. Does the terrain allow expansion of these cities to the size of 1 million or more? If you could plan these cities to house over 1 million people what would it look like and what would be needed to do it?

With the amount of rain falling on the urban area all you need is a place to store it.

Townsville should take a european approach when planning for the future, should become very dense, kinda like wellington in NZ, they also mountains restricting their growth.

Become the Barcelona of the North (which I highly doubt)

To make darwin a metropolis quickly, I say building a bridge from indonesia to Darwin. simple.

^^ Couldn't agree more - we need all the people we can get. Check out this article for economic growth predictions. 5 to 6.5% economic growth. Crazy - they're Asian style growth figures:

Territory economy still growing says Access Economics
THE ECONOMIC FORECASTER predicted further growth, an increasing population and more jobs over the next three years.
“The prediction of solid economic growth of between 5 and 6.5% is a real vote of confidence in the NT Government’s management of the economy,” said Acting Chief Minister Syd Stirling.
“Employment growth is predicted to be around 3% to 4.6% over the same time – our population is also expected to record high levels of growth.”
Mr Stirling said Government is also working to ensure that the skills shortages experienced right across Australia are addressed as quickly as possible in the Territory.
“With unemployment at a record low of 2.4% we need every worker we can get and will continue to work with the private sector to get these workers in place,” he said.

With each of the cities maybe the airports need to be moved to allow for expansion. Also define the parks. Its hard to replace these areas once their developed. Don't lose your natural environment as this defines your cities. With the weather in Melbourne I am starting to get used to your weather, maybe not the wet season.

I dont think its necessary or practical to move the airport in Darwin, I assume that most of the new development will stretch down towards Palmerston and around the harbour in the future which means that the airport wont really be in the way. As for the suburbs that are already to the north of the airport its not like they are that far from the CBD as it is and lets face it, anyone who has lived in Darwin will be use to Plane noise anyway.

As for Cairns airport, while it would be better if planes didnt have to fly so low over the CBD I wouldnt have thought there was any flat room in the area that wouldnt affect existing suburbs.

As for Cairns airport, while it would be better if planes didnt have to fly so low over the CBD I wouldnt have thought there was any flat room in the area that wouldnt affect existing suburbs.
A future draft plan by Cairns Port Authority is exploring the issue of relocating Cairns Airport to either near Mareeba or Cow bay in the south because of the low flying aircraft activity over the CBD

^^ I agree, move it near Mareeba after the Kuranda Range Upgrade has been finished, then you could probably give it another name, possibly Atherton Tablelands International Airport.

or FNQ International!!

Darwin has been slow to develop but i believe it will one day look similar to the gold coast

With each of the cities maybe the airports need to be moved to allow for expansion. Also define the parks. Its hard to replace these areas once their developed. Don't lose your natural environment as this defines your cities. With the weather in Melbourne I am starting to get used to your weather, maybe not the wet season.
Townsville Airport is fine where it is, the only problem is room for terminal expansion. But that can be overcome if the current hangars to the north of the terminal are relocated further north from the current location. Runway lengthining has already been factored into the masterplan, but that is a long way off yet.

There is also plenty of room for growth here as well, the city is already growing rapidly to the north. The western side of town has a few mountains that would hinder things a bit. Rocky Springs is already planned to the south.

^^ One of the good things about our airport is that it is ideally located so that flight paths don't fly over, or directly over out CBD's unlike Cairns, and in some respect, Darwin.

One of the key reasons why I think one day (soon) Darwin will overtake Cairns and Townsville is pretty much spelled out in this article. Because unlike the north Queensland cities that have to compete with Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast for the attention of the Queensland state government, in the NT Darwin is pretty much the only city worth selling, and the territory government goes to great lengths to sing its praises overseas. Have a look:

NT's Martin heads to Japan to talk gas
Email Print Normal font Large font January 29, 2007 - 7:49PM

Chief Minister Clare Martin plans to consolidate Darwin's position as a gas hub during a three-day visit to Japan.

The trade mission hopes to build on pre-existing plans for a $1.6 billion Liquefied Natural Gas plant at Wickham Point, which is already under construction.

"The government wants to expand the LNG facilities and move on to the next plant as soon as possible," Ms Martin said.

"I want to make the territory the place to buy LNG and invest in gas industries and the development of the emerging technology of gas to liquids."

Increased investment would mean more jobs and a stronger economy, she said.

"We are pushing to establish a gas manufacturing base in Darwin with new projects based on ammonia, methanol, olefins and their derivatives.

"These can be used to produce everything from explosives for mining, to the plastics used to make black polypipe and garden furniture," Ms Martin said.

Australia has about 150 trillion cubic feet of gas with a potential value of between $500 billion to $750 billion.

While in Tokyo, Ms Martin will meet with representatives from the Tokyo Electric Power Company, Tokyo Gas, the Dow Chemical Company and Inpex Holdings.

She will also travel to Osaka to meet with officials from the Osaka Gas Company and hold talks with the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on business opportunities in the Northern Territory.

© 2007 AAP

also Darwin is a capital city...so of course all the focus will be on it

^^ One of the good things about our airport is that it is ideally located so that flight paths don't fly over, or directly over out CBD's unlike Cairns, and in some respect, Darwin.
from a terrorism point of view i think thats dangerous having the flight paths over the cbd...maybe Cairns Port Authority should re-route incoming flights to machans beach end of the airport and have the take-offs towards the cbd or if not all together have flights arrive and depart from Machans Beach end

If there is one thing that all three cities have in common, especially right now, there is no shortage of fresh water. The NT govt could make alot of money selling water to WA or SA, and QLD could make a big difference to drought stricken areas in its own state with a few pipelines in place. I know its a big call but when it comes to water we need to start thinking a little bigger. Not really on topic, but a lack of water isnt going to affect growth in these cities.

Not so sure about selling it to WA, not when we're building desalination plants and have a lot of area up north (ord river ring any bells?)

But I'd love to see Darwin overtake the two other cities. It would be great to have a big capital up there to visit. I really do hope that it happens. And I imagine that it will. With the massive amount of mining happening in far north WA and Perth property prices exploding (the average house is now$502,000) I think a lot of people will consider Darwin to live in before Perth.

Go Darwin!

^^ As far as I know, Townsville is in a good situation at the moment, all three dams that service the city are full. The city has Paluma and Ross Reservoir as the main two water sources, and if both become too low, then the Burdekin Falls Dam also can service the city.

Unlike Cairns, it has the one main dam, which is Copperlode Dam, and even then, it only holds a few more megalitres of water than Paluma Dam, and when that comes to Dire Straits, then Tinaroo Dam will be used.

Behana Creek south of Gordonvale also provides water to the Cairns Network...Mayor Byrne is pushing for things to get a move on with the Nullinga Dam...i dont know much about the project but if its vital to Cairns' future water needs then i say get a move on with it...your right Gertzy just like Townsville and the Burdekin dam, if Cairns gets to crisis point the Tinaroo Dam will be another lifeline to the city

I was speakin to a builder the other day (just recenltly had my house bein finished) he told me that townsville is gonna stay at the pace its at now for the nxt 2 yrs then its just gonna take right off, why do u think u always see all the adds on tv about how there practiculty handing out aprentiships to every youngster in townsville, blv me if u wanna job in the trade now days yur gonna get alot of money, half a million people in townsville here we come

Noway the way tsv going now way

right e o

Unfortunetly, as much as i would hate to say this, Townsville will in the near future, lose its title as Northern Australia's largest city to Darwin. The sugar shaker has already lost the Tallest building title to Pandanas, and construction and the local economy up that way is going gangbusters, and if this keeps up, then Townsville is more than likely going to be 2nd largest in about 2 decades time. Cairns on the other hand, dont think that would be likely unless Townsville was destroyed by some Cyclone or Earthquake.

I would seriously have to disagree with you on that gertzy, believe iam draftsman and all the new projects i here about, and get told there is no way darwin will catch up with townsville, what there about 120000 maybe a bit smaller than cairns, they wont catch up seriously

Darwin and it's "outer suburb" of Palmerston already have a combined population of 120,000. The following is a story from the Sunday Territorian:

Population set to explode by 30,000

NICK CALACOURAS

December 6th, 2008

THE housing market is expected to face further strain as a projected 30,000 people move in to Darwin and Palmerston by 2016.

Chief Minister Paul Henderson celebrated the news during his State of the Territory address to the property council.

"A bigger population means more consumption in the economy, more houses and schools, and other social infrastructure that needs to be built - and that is a large part of what is driving the Territory's economy at the moment," he said.

But this growth is also expected to put more strain on the Territory's housing market.

Mr Henderson said Darwin and Palmerston were plagued with "ultra-low rental vacancy rates and rising housing prices".

"This is great for people in the market, not for people trying to get into the market," he said.

"Neither of these are healthy for the long-term sustainability of our community."

The NT's indigenous population is also expected to grow from 62,000 to 98,000 in the next 25 years.

The Chief Minister said this also was expected to put pressure on the health system.

But he said the new planning unit and the Territory 2030 report would help the government navigate through these issues.

Mr Henderson said the new suburbs of Bellamack, Zuccoli, Johnston and Mitchell were expected to come on line in the near future, and the BuildStart $14,000 bonus to people building a new home would put more houses on the market.

"We are bucking those trends," he said.

"All our fundamentals are strong. All of the business people we speak to are confident about the Territory's future, and there are a number of good reasons for that."

Well the way things are going it could eventually overtake Townsville, Cairns, Geelong and even Hobart.

And Canberra, Wollongong too.

lol BSD. It would take a very very very long time to catch up to Wollongong. Canberra has an estimated population of 500,000 by 2030. I don't think Darwin will grow that quick bro.

But it is pretty clear that Darwins unpredicted rapid population growth will soon overtake Cairns and Townsville. This will be great for the nation!

No, Considering Townsville and Darwin are pritty much on parr with population growth hovering at 2.6% (Darwin) & 2.7% (Townsville), according to ABS. Darwin wont surpass Townsville or Cairns for that matter, givin the current downturn, Townsville still has Billion's of dollars worth of development on its way. So you'd be kidding yourself if you think Darwin will surpass Cairns and Townsville. Perhapps Geelong. Remember Darwin is still a small town, and redneck at heart.

Townsville's Current populations is 172,000

• Darwin's 2021 Predicted Population: 168,706
• Townsville's 2021 Predicted Population: 208,236

With Articles like these, there is no way in the foreseeable future Darwin will overtake Townsville nor Cairns.

Link 1 (http://reareports.realestate.com.au/showNews.do?id=63)
Link 2 (http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2008/09/04/15957_news.html)
Link 3 (http://www.agpn.com.au/site/index.cfm?leca=141)

Need any more evidence?

Townsville is amongst the fastest growing cities in Australia.

People are streaming to the region with population growth steadily accelerating. Over the past decade, population growth in Townsville has been nearly 50% higher than that recorded in the better-known tourist city of Cairns.

Why? Townsville has developed an enviable lifestyle and a strong, stable economy. This has led to a rare critical mass for regional infrastructure with career and business opportunities beyond those typically associated with a regional centre.

Recent trends and surveys of residents and businesses indicate that population growth in Townsville is likely to remain strong.

Accordingly, the Queensland Government recently upgraded their population growth estimates for the region, with their medium series growth projection placing an additional 33,000 people to Townsville over the next 10 years. A number of private and industry commentators in the region forecast that population growth will prove to be significantly higher. Estimates vary, but are closer to the Queensland Government’s high series projections, which amount to an additional 42,500 people over the next 10 years (an average of 4,250 per year). In 2005-06, Townsville-Thuringowa added 4,534 people to its population.

Townsville is forecast to receive the greatest population growth in Queensland outside of the Gold Coast-Brisbane-Sunshine Coast urban area. It is expected that 75% of this growth over the next 10 years will be placed in the northern area of the new Townsville local government area (the previous Thuringowa local government area).

North Queensland has proven that industry, growth and lifestyle can go together hand in hand. It is something that we worked out years ago. Simply ask the thousands of people who choose to move North every year!

Population growth key driver

TOWNSVILLE is a place where people love to live and the region has a growing need for new houses and better facilities.

Population growth is a fundamental driver of demand for homes. A major piece of the puzzle, when revealing the Top Five future residential zones, is population growth.

Population growth in Townsville remains the strongest in North Queensland and our estimates for the next five years have Townsville growing by 26,528 to more than 196,000.

Director of research and consulting at Colliers International Townsville Colin Dwyer said the ABS population estimate for Townsville and Thuringowa in June 2007 was 169,484.

"The provisional estimated growth for the region is 2.7 per cent. Colliers International Research Townsville estimates Townsville's population in March 2008 was likely to be around 171,616,'' Mr Dwyer said.

"Population growth is also a key criteria for property investment and Townsville's population growth is remarkable. To put it in perspective the national population growth rate was 1.5 per cent and Queensland's as a whole was 2.2 per cent in 2007.

"The Townsville region remains one of the fastest growing in the nation and state and in North Queensland.

"Over the past 10 years Townsville's population growth has been outstanding. From a low of 1301 in 1997, to an amazing 4529 last year attributed to a baby boom and robust employment opportunities that have encouraged strong net migration.

"Net migration has more impact on housing demand than net natural increase. After allowing for healthy new baby numbers we estimate about 40 people per week on average arrived via net migration in 2007.

"In 2010 we expect Myer to commence operations in Townsville creating substantial construction and permanent retail jobs. Townsville is also expecting a battalion of 800 soldiers accompanied by 700 support staff. There are numerous other projects or employment drivers around Townsville.''

These `employment drivers' are likely to increase 2010's population growth estimates significantly; that's in addition to current population growth patterns of around 4500 per annum, he said.

"If the region continues to attract new residents and maintains a healthy natural increase then Townsville's population is likely to be around 196,000 in 2012,'' Mr Dwyer said.

"We also need to consider the population multiplier effects of the battalion, Myer and other employment/population drivers. Our conservative estimated population for Townsville in 2016 is about 216,000. This is an extra 46,000 new residents in about 10 years.

"Population growth is not the only piece in our puzzle but it is a big piece. Given Townsville's tight rental rate, these population growth numbers will obviously bring significant economic changes to Townsville and present solid fundamental investment information. Strong population growth usually leads to increased demand for new dwellings."

No, Considering Townsville and Darwin are pritty much on parr with population growth hovering at 2.6% (Darwin) & 2.7% (Townsville), according to ABS. Darwin wont surpass Townsville or Cairns for that matter, givin the current downturn, Townsville still has Billion's of dollars worth of development on its way. So you'd be kidding yourself if you think Darwin will surpass Cairns and Townsville. Perhapps Geelong. Remember Darwin is still a small town, and redneck at heart.

I would be careful of having a go a place for being 'redneck' and 'small town'.

Townsville's Current populations is 172,000

• Darwin's 2021 Predicted Population: 168,706
• Townsville's 2021 Predicted Population: 208,236

With Articles like these, there is no way in the foreseeable future Darwin will overtake Townsville nor Cairns.


Did you get those predictions from Wikipedia?

ABS Predictions from 2001 show that Darwin's population in 2021 could be between 126,500 and 184,500. However that prediction is old so now theres a chance it could hit 200,000 but very unlikely in the next 20 years.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyReleaseDate/B70B578965453B57CA256A9400814AFD?OpenDocument


But the Wikipedia prediction just shows the gap between Darwin and Townsville is closing in.

It could be at least 40+ years but eventually Darwin will overtake those cities I mentioned above (including Townsville). Though to be honest if Darwin wasn't completed ruined by the WW2 Bombings and Cyclone Tracy the city would probably be around 160-200,000 or more by now.

If Darwin city council decided to amalgamate with nearby Palmerston city and Litchfield shire and other areas. To become a super council a bit like what has just happened to Queensland cities this year. Then it will be halfway their to be a major Metropolitan Australian City. All at the stroke of a pen!

^ i think you will find that those places are already included in the darwin stat div - something which ignores council borders. otherwise sydney would only have a population of about 175,000.

It could be at least 40+ years but eventually Darwin will overtake those cities I mentioned above (including Townsville). Though to be honest if Darwin wasn't completed ruined by the WW2 Bombings and Cyclone Tracy the city would probably be around 160-200,000 or more by now.
What a load of shit, The cities are both rapidly growing through connections with Asia plus the mining & resources boom. The growth rate between the cities have always been the same over the last few years. Darwin will not take over Townsville or Cairns, in the next forty years or ever. There are plenty of conflicting articles that suggest Darwin will have a population between 165-180,000 by 2021, Thats still 60,000-40,000 shy of Townsville between 210-220,000 by 2021. Its clear as day Townsville will remain Northern Australia's Largest City, and with the recent Office boom, the city will continue to hold that honor.

^^Population growth rates can change. So can economies. Any growth rate could be possible in the next 40 years? Townsvilly may increase for the next 5 years and then not grow at all. So could Darwin.

Anything is possible.

Someone is starting to remind me of BSD

.... Lol is that the best you could come up with.

In the future I think Darwin will overtake both Townsville and Cairns, screw what the statistics say at the moment. It will probably grow to a city similar size of Wollongong. Hopefully anyway.

I can see Darwin having a chance in overtaking Cairns but not Townsville just yet. Although Burden remember Townsville's construction sector was really not moving for many years until the last few when it just skyrocketed because of demand.

"My grandma and your grandma, were sittin by the fire,

My grandma told your grandma, I'm going to set your flag on fire,"

interesting thread.......with regards to Darwin, i'm suprised no one has mentioned the impact on population growth if the NT was to become a state? ie i imagine there would be an explosion in jobs with contracts up for grabs to build new 'state' infrastructure....also, having a premier in charge perhaps interstate workers could be more aggressivley targeted??

but that aside....the most important factor in the growth of a city is the quality of its port and its ability to host large ships and a high volume of goods.

when i used to work at the ports in melb i remember asking a warfie why melbourne had the largest container volume...ie i asked him wouldnt it be cheaper to use the port of darwin and use the rail to push it to the rest of australia. he told me darwin was problematic in that it had a large variation in tides which didnt make it suitable as a high volume port.

port adelaide suffers a similar problem in that it doesnt have enough depth for large ships to enter.

so what im trying to say the most important thing for a city to grow is for it to have a decent port with lots of capacity...if there isnt room for high volume stevedoring then the city will never become a big player.....ie all other jobs in a city depend on the quality of its port...the more container tonnage you have then generrally the greater diversity of jobs and hence migrants that will come. dubai has invested heavily in becoming a major shipping player....much like singapore and hong kong have become

Construction has started on the new Port Access road (Stage one) The port of Townsville is the third largest seaport in Queensland after Port of Brisbane and the Central Queensland Port in Gladstone. Port of Townsville handles numerous imports and exports mainly, Mineral Ores, Fertiliser, Concentrates, Sugar and Motor Vehicles.

The port is an important driver of economic growth in North Queensland. Trade through the port has increased dramatically over the past 10 years in response to increased industrial and mining development in the region. This rate of growth is expected to continue over the next 20 to 25 years, so providing adequate road and rail access to the port to support this growth is essential. The port access road will be a huge boost to Townsville and will assist the economy achieve its potential as a major port handling centre.

I think the quality of life between the cities is another equation, Townsville has the infrastructure in terms of roads, were as iam not aware Darwin has, the population is still quite small.

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What has this got to do with Darwin?

Comparisons with the port, kavorka's post.

Darwin is an important city for Australia. it has a prime location in South-East Asia and historical significance, mostly due to its name and status as Australia's biggest air-raid target during WWII. It's the only city on Australia's north coast.

the Aussie federal govt will spare no expense giving Darwin whatever it needs to become an important center for politics and trade... just look at how much they spent on the NT Parliament House as an example. Cairns is a big tourist destination and Townsville is a big regional city, but Darwin is special.

I could see it happening.

Unlike Cairns and Townsville, Darwin is a growing capital, and is in a prime position (relating to Asia).

While I understand Townsville is growing fast, its still relatively unknown outside Queensland. Cairns at least has the tourism.

Darwin is an important city for Australia. it has a prime location in South-East Asia and historical significance, mostly due to its name and status as Australia's biggest air-raid target during WWII. It's the only city on Australia's north coast.

the Aussie federal govt will spare no expense giving Darwin whatever it needs to become an important center for politics and trade... just look at how much they spent on the NT Parliament House as an example. Cairns is a big tourist destination and Townsville is a big regional city, but Darwin is special.

"Lets dance in style, lets dance for a while
Heaven can wait were only watching the skies
Hoping for the best but expecting the worst
Are you going to drop the bomb or not?

Let us die young or let us live forever
We dont have the power but we never say never
Sitting in a sandpit, life is a short trip
The musics for the sad men

Can you imagine when this race is won
Turn our golden faces into the sun
Praising our leaders were getting in tune
The musics played by the madmen"

By Alphaville.

Anyway apart from being bombed some 63 times, Darwin was also the target of Japanese midget submarines (some of which were sunk outside Darwin harbour and are now war graves). The longest antisubmarine net in the world was built between Darwin's East Point and the Cox Peninsula to keep the subs out. And everyone thinks Sydney suffered the most damage during WWII.

With further government investment, there could be a chance that Darwin will eventually overtake the North QLD centres. May be sometime off yet - all three centres are experiencing similar growth rates at present:

Cairns:
2007 Estimated Population = 135,930
2006/07 Annual Growth = 3.25%
Townsville:
2007 Estimated Population = 157,478
2006/07 Annual Growth = 2.76%
Darwin:
2007 Estimated Population = 117,399
2006/07 Annual Growth = 2.66%

Link (http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/70EDD3BEE0A02348CA25751200103FB0/$File/31010_jun%202008.pdf)

Darwin is an important city for Australia. it has a prime location in South-East Asia and historical significance, mostly due to its name and status as Australia's biggest air-raid target during WWII. It's the only city on Australia's north coast.

the Aussie federal govt will spare no expense giving Darwin whatever it needs to become an important center for politics and trade... just look at how much they spent on the NT Parliament House as an example. Cairns is a big tourist destination and Townsville is a big regional city, but Darwin is special.

One thing we also have to notice, which i just realised has not been mentioned in this thread is that Darwin too is the Largest city in the NT, while Townsville and Cairns are just provincinal dots part of a larger Queensland, this, as well as its status as Capital of the NT, will make it prone to both significant Government Investment on a State and Federal level, due to A. The distribution of Population (as what nearly 40% of the NT's population reside in Darwin) and B. Its position as a HQ for a State Government will make it prone to Significant Federal funding, so the State branch will be able to maintain, or increase its infrastructure, and also other federal interests that are based in Darwin (primarily as a hub for NT Regional Department Offices, and Military interests such as RAAF Base Darwin, both NAVY and ARMY interests based there, and the DSD recieving station at nearby Shoal Bay, and other services such as one of the largest BOM offices in Australia which also includes TCWC Darwin).

Townsville too has its fair share of significant Federal Infrastructure, in the form of Military (namely ARMY, with Lavarack Barracks being one of the largest in terms of Personnel in Australia, and RAAF Base Townsville) and also the fact that most Federal Government Departments, like the ATO, and Centrelink have their Northern QLD Offices based here, though we have yet to see more Investment from Federal and State Government, especially in comparisson to Darwin.

Cairns is more of a Qld State hub, with a lot of State Regional offices there and it also has a NAVY base, there are other things that would be there as well.

Darwin has huge potential.

Edit

I should add that, if the reports/photos on these forums are anything to go by, the future of both cities is looking very bright.

I should add that, if the reports/photos on these forums are anything to go by, the future of both cities is looking very bright.
:yes: Thats the opinion I put across and it got deleted, Obviously everything has to be Darwin orientated to impress Crawf.

Heres your original comment that got deleted

^ Cheers for your thoughtless comment. Just like every city, they all have "Potential".

BTW There is no such word as 'wanka'

I think there is absolutely no doubt that Darwin will grow larger than Townsville in Cairns. It has huge potential as it is so close to Asia and being a Capital city also gives it potential over the other two. Townsville and Cairns are basically just tourist destinations.

To me Cairns is more of a tourist destination, while Townsville is the business hub of North Queensland.

I want to visit Cairns this year and maybe Townsville.

To me Cairns is more of a tourist destination, while Townsville is the business hub of North Queensland.

I want to visit Cairns this year and maybe Townsville.

Well that is basically correct, though Townsville has become quite popular with backpackers in recent years.

To me Cairns is more of a tourist destination, while Townsville is the business hub of North Queensland.

I want to visit Cairns this year and maybe Townsville.

Yeah but how much business actually goes on there? Basically all business in Qld is done in Brisbane. Even the Gold Coast is pretty much just a tourist destination.

Right.......

Basically all business in Qld is done in Brisbane
There's more to Queensland, than South East QLD.

Don't make such stupid comments - how reliant on Brisbane do you think the North Queensland region is?

Well tourism is North Qld's main business? I very much doubt there are many corporations or politics in Townsville.

Well tourism is North Qld's main business? I very much doubt there are many corporations or politics in Townsville.
Your gotta be kidding me, How about doing abit of research before chucking out ridiculous comments, I mean look back a few pages and you'll see what make's up Townsville, How blind sighted are you? Many factors make up the economy, Mining, Tourism, the Port etc. The economy is worth more then 30 Billion and with the development sector alone worth 14 Billion, There is no chance Darwin will overtake Townsville in the near future. With growth rate's being the same, It just wont happen, can't be anymore clearer.

Townsville’s economy is booming, with gross regional product growing at double digits. The region’s diverse economy provides long term sustainability against general economic downturns, ensuring a strong and resilient support base for many workers. Because of Townsville’s unique attributes, several major companies have chosen to locate their operations in the city. BHP Billiton Cannington, BHP Mitsubishi Alliance, Barrick Group Osborne Mine, Birla Mt Gordon Mine, Zinifex Century Mine, Barminco Eloise Copper Mine, Xstrata, Ernest Henry Mine are among a few large mining companies with significant administrative centres in Townsville. The dominance of government administration and manufacturing in the Northern Region is creating demand for office space from both private and public sector organisations which is driving new supply in this sector.

Wow, you love your city to know that much about it.

BTW There is no such word as 'wanka'

Actually, the name of one of the chief important persons in the NT Department of Infrastructure and Planning is Mr. Ernie Wanka (pronounced W-o-n-k-a as any other pronunciation in front of him can earn you a black eye).

Well if there is ever a bridge from Darwin to Mandorah then sprawl will go to the otherside of the bay... there is already Wagait Beach, a small area of beachside properties on box sides of Cox Peninsular Road to Mandorah.

There's talk of a bridge of $250 million to build, which would eventually create development opportunities there. According to Google maps it looks like Mandorah is about 6-7kms from Darwin City, where as the long round trip is 125kms by road. But I doubt the feds will fund a bridge across the bay unless the north can commit new developments either mass sprawl *which i doubt_ or another major centre, town like area...

see Darwin Photography Thread my last post for the news article and a previous google map for distance estimates/view....
What has this got to do with Townsville/Cairns?

They both wont get good bridges like 2km or longer. Houghton Highway is best so far unless Darwin Harbour Bridge comes along.

They both wont get good bridges like 2km or longer. Houghton Highway is best so far unless Darwin Harbour Bridge comes along.

Is that so ey, well i would agree that it probably wont happen in Townsville in my lifetime (unless the Islanders really want a Bridge to Townsville, if that happened that would be a 3km bridge), but Cairns has many opportunities available for a bridge 2km long, especially around the Trinity Inlet, where a large community is already in planning.

Also as SPQRSPQR said, There's talk of a bridge which does not necessarily mean it will happen. So it could be a case that all three wont get bridges 2km long.

The question is "Will Darwin overtake Cairns and Townsville in the Near Future?"

I think the answer is that overall it already has!

In terms of population no, development related no.

In terms of population no, development related no.

First Statement i agree with you 100%, but unfortunetly there is alot more happening in Darwin development wise atm. We held the tallest building in NA before 2007, but now Darwin holds that title and also the second tallest title.

I love this thread, it's the new Cairns vs Townsville thread with Darwin in it for the hell of it.

Title states "Will Darwin overtake Cairns and Townsville in the Near Future", With the amount being invested into the city (Billions and Billions) its obvious that it wont in the near future, or long term. It couldn't be anymore clearer.

I think this discussion has gone long enough.

We can all agree the 3 cities are growing fast and have a very bright future, so anything is possible.