Saskatchewan home sales increase 9.6 per cent, double national rate


Leader-Post and Financial Post February 15, 2011

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REGINA — Home sales in Saskatchewan increased 9.6 per cent in January over December (seasonally adjusted), more than double the national average increase, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.

There were 612 homes sold in the province in January, up 15.3 per cent from 531 sales in January 2010, CREA said in its monthly report.

The dollar volume of sales increased 25 per cent to $151.4 million in January from $121.3 milion in January 2010. Average prices increased 8.3 per cent to $247,357 from $228,430 during the same period.

Regina and Saskatoon posted significant increases in sales activity, dollar volume of sales and average price in January compared with the same period last year.

Regina saw a 17.5-per-cent increase in sales to 215, while Saskatoon had an 8.9-per-cent increase to 195. Dollar volume in Regina increased 27.2 per cent to $55.9 million, while Saskatoon's increased 21 per cent to $58.6 million.

Average prices in Regina increased 8.3 per cent to $260,133, while Saskatoon saw an 11.2-per-cent increase to $300,353.

Nationally, home resales rose 4.5 per cent in January to the highest level since April 2010, led by Vancouver and Toronto, CREA said.

"National sales activity has improved steadily since last summer, and now stands almost 25-per-cent above the low point reached in July 2010," the industry body said in a press release.

"We anticipated the recent announcement of tighter mortgage regulations, which will come into effect this March, would pull forward sales activity into the first quarter of 2011, particularly in some of Canada's more expensive housing markets," said Gregory Klump, CREA's chief economist.

"The sharp rise in sales activity in Toronto following the announcement provides early evidence confirming this," he said.

CREA said 39,481 homes were sold in January, up from 37,773 the previous month but down 6.6 per cent from January 2010. "This was the smallest year-over-year decline since May 2010," it said.

Meanwhile, the national average sales price was $343,675 during the month. "While this is little changed compared to the previous three months, it represents an increase of 4.5 per cent compared to January 2010," the group said.

Benjamin Reitzes, an economist at BMO Capital Market, said balance is returning to the Canadian housing market, though there remain some hot spots due to a lack of listings.

"The next couple of months may see a run-up in activity ahead of the new mortgage insurance rules that reduce the maximum amortization term by five years to 30 years," he said.

"However, the trend will be towards a stabilizing market in 2011, as mortgage rates rise and listings increase. Home prices are expected to climb modestly from a year ago, providing a better picture of the state of the market."



Read more: http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Saskatchewan+home+sales+increase+cent+double+national+rate/4288814/story.html#ixzz1E6dUYhgI

WINNIPEG TO BE HOTTEST HOUSING MARKET THIS YEAR IN CANADA


"Forget Vancouver or Toronto. Winnipeg is poised to be Canada's hottest housing market this year.

In fact, 2011 is shaping up to be the year of the mid-sized city with St. John's, Fredericton, Regina and Saskatoon also enjoying some of the strongest price increases in the country.

A lot of first-time buyers are already being priced out of large urban centres. With the Bank of Canada expected to resume interest-rate increases later this year, affordability will become a bigger issue for even more buyers."

...

"Winnipeg, however, is expected to eclipse that national average by posting a 7-per-cent gain this year. That easily outpaces the 3.7-per-cent increase expected for Vancouver and the 1-per-cent gain forecast for Toronto.

“It [Winnipeg] is the Canadian poster child for a well-diversified economy,” said Mr. Soper, adding the key drivers include agriculture, resources, manufacturing and public-sector employment. “They are not a one-trick pony like Calgary or St. John's, where you see really dramatic upswings, but a really solid reliable economy over the last decade and affordable home prices.”

Adrienne Warren, senior economist with the Bank of Nova Scotia, said the Winnipeg housing market remains “tight” in terms of supply. A positive population trend and strong demand will push prices higher."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle1859524//

Calgary house prices fall from a year ago

Repeat sales report shows 2.9% decline

By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald February 23, 2011


CALGARY - Calgary was the only market to see a decline in house prices on an annual basis in a survey based on properties that sold at least twice.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, released Wednesday, said prices in Calgary were down 2.9 per cent in December compared with a year ago.

The index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index.

Nationally, the index was up by 4.1 per cent on an annual basis. The 12-month increase in prices was 4.0 per cent in Toronto, 5.1 per cent in Vancouver, 6.3 per cent in Ottawa and 6.4 per cent in Montreal.

The decline in prices in Calgary was the third consecutive month of 12-month deflation, said the report.

But on a month-over-month basis, Calgary prises rose 0.1 per cent, the first gain in five months.

Canadian home prices rose by 0.3 per cent from the previous month following three consecutive monthly declines. December prices were up 3.6 per cent in Halifax, 0.5 per cent in Montreal, 0.2 per cent in Toronto and 0.5 per cent in Vancouver. They declined by 0.4 per cent in Ottawa.



December house prices (change m/m / change y/y):

Calgary / +0.1 % / -2.9 %

Halifax / +3.6 % / +8.5 %

Montreal / +0.5 % / +6.4 %

Ottawa / -0.4 % / +6.3 %

Toronto / +0.2 % / +4.0 %

Vancouver / +0.5 % / +5.1 %

National Composite / +0.3 % / +4.1 %

Source: Teranet-Natioanl Bank House Price Index



Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+house+prices+fall+from+year/4333831/story.html#ixzz1Er0yhgij

List prices on Calgary homes too high: expert

No U.S. style housing crash here

By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald March 4, 2011 10:19 PM

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CALGARY - Sellers of residential property in Calgary need to adjust their expectations when they list their homes for sale and potential buyers, waiting for a U.S.-style housing crash, won't see it happen, says a leading North American real estate expert.

U.S.-based Steve Harney, who was in Calgary Thursday to speak with CIR realtors, said there is a big disparity in the local market between the average list price and the average sale price.

"What those two things mean is what the average buyer is willing to pay for a house in this market is a different number than what the average seller right now is willing to sell it for," said Harney. "And your sales won't go until the seller starts to realize, because the buyer usually can buy at whatever they can afford to buy, in order to sell their house ... they might have to get somewhat more realistic on their price. Anything in the world is only worth what someone's willing to pay for it."

According to the latest Calgary MLS stats, the average sale price to listing price ratio was 97 per cent in February for single-family homes and 96 per cent for condominiums.

Harney, who spoke at more than 100 real estate events in 2010, said one of the things owners of residential property and the local real estate industry should be concerned about is a belief some people have that what happened south of the border could happen here.

"And it can't," said Harney bluntly. "What happened in the United States, you don't have the same challenge here. What happened in the United States is the amount of people who fell behind paying their mortgage went from a historic number of about a half a per cent to six tenths of a per cent all the way up to over five per cent. The number of people going into a foreclosure situation increased by 10 times.

"(Alberta's) delinquency rate - the number of people that are falling behind in their mortgage - is the same now that it was in 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008. There's been no appreciable bump at all. So buyers (in the local market) that are waiting for prices to crash like they did in the States, they're waiting for something that's not going to happen."

Meanwhile, a report by a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said house prices have sagged in Alberta after doubling in the five years to 2007 and the province is poised to see prices climb this year, according to a report by a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

In his Canadian Housing Outlook 2011, Sal Guatieri said the price growth in the province could result in response to "solid economic growth, high oil prices and in-migration."

At the national level, Guatieri said average resale prices and personal incomes both rose 5.7 per cent per year in the past three decades.

But prices more than doubled (113 per cent) in the decade to late 2007 and grew twice as fast as incomes from 2002 to 2007 - 10.2 per cent versus 5.0 per cent.

"Even after sliding 13 per cent through the recession, prices quickly rebounded and are now 10 per cent above their 2007 peak," he said of the national average.

"The ratio of average resale prices to personal incomes is currently 14 per cent above its long-run mean, suggesting the national market is moderately overvalued. That's up modestly from the summer but still well below the 21 per cent all-time high in 1989 or the 26 per cent U.S. peak in 2005."

Guatieri said home sales are expected to cool and prices stabilize this year in response to higher interest rates, tighter mortgage rules and lower affordability.

"While we do not expect a significant correction nationwide, the risk of such would increase - especially in some regions - if prices were to continue to outrun incomes or if interest rate were to increase rapidly," he said.



Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/List+prices+Calgary+homes+high+expert/4378388/story.html#ixzz1FhYZW2PD

2011 avg. price forecast: $235,800
Change from previous year: + 6.2%

2012 avg. price forecast: $249,900
Change from previous year: + 6.0%

Believe it or not, modest Manitoba is one of Canada's hottest real estate markets. One of only three provinces to sell more homes last year than it did in 2009, Manitoba housing prices are set to boom. The CREA looks for the average home price in the province to jump 6.2 per cent this year compared to last (the second-largest spike in the country) and a further 6.0 per cent next year compared to 2011 (the largest forecasted jump in Canada).

http://money.ca.msn.com/banking/homebuyersguide/gallery/gallery.aspx?cp-documentid=28685507&page=9