Money matters - Personal investing / finance [Archive]

TShyam

February 23rd, 2011, 08:44 PM

I will try to explain inflation from what I understand.

Annualized M3 (total money supply) growth in India - 17 - 18% p.a.

M3 = GDP growth + Inflation.

When GDP growth reaches 17%, There will be no inflation. But both need not be concurrent. For example, GDP growth(around 7%) and inflation (6%) was low in 2009 because money flow was conservative and its "velocity of flow" was less. But as it started flowing into the real economy, both went up to 9 and 11% respectively. This basically compensates for FY2009.

What RBI should do?

Print (or create) no more money than the actual GDP growth. This is necessary for price stability.

Why is it printing a "bit extra"?

Its the government's wish. By printing more, it creates inflation which is a silent blanket taxation on everybody holding cash and cash equivalents. The government always runs a deficit budget, borrows the money from RBI, pays back in inflated rupees. This way the government is taxing in a blanket way rather than in a differential way. This is one of the reason why rich gets richer and poor gets poorer. The central and state government has absolutely no motivation to run a budget surplus. This is also the reason why government often projects inflation as a good thing "necessary for growth". No matter what the "experts" in media tell, this is not true. In reality all it does is silently rob the people.

Have minimal level of cash, cash equivalents and cash linked instruments (FD, RD, bank deposits, bonds, insurance plans). Always convert currency into tangible assets. Go for high yield yet safe money market instruments. There are lot of such hidden instruments available in India which are not mainstreamed.

What is wrong with U.S?

Since M3 is GDP growth plus inflation, they think by increasing M3, they can somehow kick start GDP growth. What is really happening is that the money is flooding the consumer part of the economy and government spending on unproductive economy. Since all the money created is based on debt, it only pushes the country deeper and deeper into debt which the future generation cannot afford to pay. The recovery which is statistically projected in the US is nothing but accounting fiction. In reality, foreclosures are increasing, capital is scarce, economy is deteriorating, and the US government thinks printing money will solve the problem.

Why there is no Inflation then?

Because the money created is sitting on bank balance sheets and has not yet entered the economy. As the velocity of flow picks up, the west in general and U.S in particular would enter a period of persistent stagflation (economic stagnation+high inflation). Coming out of the stagflation, U.S economy will be much smaller w.r.t the world's economy (currently its around 25% ), the standard of living of Americans would have been substantially reduced. Everyone wouldn't be able to afford large independent homes in sprawling suburbs. People will be forced to move closer to their place of work and live in high rise apartment blocks closer to CBDs. The cost of fuel would be much higher. As a result, although most will have personal vehicles, a considerably higher proportion wont be driving it like they do it now. Either they will be closer to work or will start using electric vehicles/public transport. Reverse migration of not only foreigners but also native Americans to emerging economies particularly to Asia and Brazil will increase. It will also be forced to change from a consumption driven to a production driven economy.

All these, I foresee happening within the next 10 to 15 years.

interesting. i dont know much about these theories, and just curious to know little more.

1. If it's so simple and clear (i mean the steps to be taken) to reduce the inflation, then why these points are not put forward to govt in sound manner. say, even the opposition should be aware of these facts. other than, blaming the govt's failure to control the inflation, i dont see much is being done by opposition.

2. is it that worth to risk their govt, by not controlling the inflation. coz, almost everywhere and all opposition parties are taking the word inflation against the govt (though not constructive). and its not a problem only with india, even other countries also face this. there should be a strong reason / show stopper for the govt to control, i feel. else, if its controllable only by stop printing currencies, then at least few countries would have done.

3. in recent days we see INR value is raising against many other currencies, in particular USD. does it has anything to do with inflation?

may be i'm missing some basic points behind.

1. If it's so simple and clear (i mean the steps to be taken) to reduce the inflation, then why these points are not put forward to govt in sound manner. say, even the opposition should be aware of these facts. other than, blaming the govt's failure to control the inflation, i dont see much is being done by opposition.

Its a simple case of "kada thengaya eduthu vazhi pullayarukku odaikara kathai" (Rob paul and pay peter). The government in India basically survives on spending taxpayers money on vote yielding policies. What successive governments does is simply a little more than cash for votes. If the opposition comes to power they should also do this. That is why they dont prescribe these things. Another thing is our opposition (BJP) itself runs some state governments which run budget deficits. So congress can quickly rebuff if BJP raises these points. By introducing a mild inflation (say 2 to 3%), it has a policy tool to silently rob our peter (vazhi pullayar in Tamil example) too without peter himself knowing it. The problem arises only when it shoots up as it is now. You see no party will raise these issues unless the people in mass demands it. But our people are more interested in 1000 rupees + chicken biryani + 1 quarter policy. So dont expect any change. As Frederic Bastiat said "The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else."

Unless this mentality changes, budget deficits will continue.

2. is it that worth to risk their govt, by not controlling the inflation. coz, almost everywhere and all opposition parties are taking the word inflation against the govt (though not constructive). and its not a problem only with india, even other countries also face this. there should be a strong reason / show stopper for the govt to control, i feel. else, if its controllable only by stop printing currencies, then at least few countries would have done.

As I have said, if inflation is less than 3 or so percent, its almost imperceptible in day to day life. So government always prescribes those kind of inflation as it would seem the people are also earning more and more each passing year. Its only when the velocity of flow increases dramatically from one point of time to another, that we see such sustained periods of inflation as we are seeing now. And regarding your last line, government need not stop printing currencies, but it should be in line with the increase in produce of a country.

3. in recent days we see INR value is raising against many other currencies, in particular USD. does it has anything to do with inflation? may be i'm missing some basic points behind.

INR is raising only with respect to USD and GBP, its falling w.r.t all the other major floating currencies. for example it has fallen 6% against euro in the past 3 months, similar against Canadian, Australian, Singapore dollars, Japanese Yen, Brazilian rial etc. Yes, it has to do with inflation in an indirect way in that both are a function of money supply. Typically over a long period of time currencies of countries having higher inflation would progressively lose its value although it may not be the case in the short term. Exchange rate also depends upon other factors like our trade deficits (import-export), FDI and FII inflows and outflows etc.

Cross posting from Chennai Economy thread.

kongutamizhan

February 23rd, 2011, 10:03 PM

kongutamizhan

February 25th, 2011, 03:06 AM

Excellent research site for investors in India

http://www.oifc.in/

kongutamizhan

February 28th, 2011, 07:09 PM

Is this (http://profit.ndtv.com/budget/show-news/no-tax-returns-needed-for-salary-only-earners-142955) a good or bad move? :nuts:

spidermanusa

February 28th, 2011, 08:06 PM

Is this (http://profit.ndtv.com/budget/show-news/no-tax-returns-needed-for-salary-only-earners-142955) a good or bad move? :nuts:

I did not quite understand it. Anybody under the slab whose only source of income is a salary need not file a return - is that correct?

kongutamizhan

February 28th, 2011, 08:12 PM

I did not quite understand it. Anybody under the slab whose only source of income is a salary need not file a return - is that correct?

No, I guess anybody above the slab (1.8 L), and are salaried need not file because they are accounted for in TDS.

TShyam

February 28th, 2011, 11:46 PM

No, I guess anybody above the slab (1.8 L), and are salaried need not file because they are accounted for in TDS.

You are right and it is ofcourse a good news.

TShyam

February 28th, 2011, 11:58 PM

Gold hits 7 week high (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-slips-after-seven-sessions-of-gains-2011-02-23).

I guess it's all upside now and could reach $2000 an-ounce by end of next year. I have been following gold prices for a decade atleast. From my experience and from experts tips, Gold traditionally hits lower during Jan-Feb of every year and starts to pick up from end of Feb or beginning of March. I am using this as a tip to buy gold. Worked well so far.

$2000 is a possible target but I wont count on it. Considering that it is on a 10 yr winning streak, i wouldn't be surprised if it takes a breather. 1700 - 1800 is what I am looking for at end 2012. Having said that, gold is still primarily end user driven market and i am positive in the medium term. Unless prices raise dramatically, we are not going to see any crash. It is definitely not in some bubble as some analysts predict.

http://www.kitco.com/
This is an excellent site on precious metals with in depth commentaries and analysis. But a note of caution - it is filled with lot of perma bulls on one side and perma bears on other side.

spidermanusa

March 1st, 2011, 07:49 AM

I guess it's all upside now and could reach $2000 an-ounce by end of next year. I have been following gold prices for a decade atleast. From my experience and from experts tips, Gold traditionally hits lower during Jan-Feb of every year and starts to pick up from end of Feb or beginning of March. I am using this as a tip to buy gold. Worked well so far.
$2000 is a possible target but I wont count on it. Considering that it is on a 10 yr winning streak, i wouldn't be surprised if it takes a breather. 1700 - 1800 is what I am looking for at end 2012. Having said that, gold is still primarily end user driven market and i am positive in the medium term. Unless prices raise dramatically, we are not going to see any crash. It is definitely not in some bubble as some analysts predict..

You both are right and wrong. Truth is it is all speculation and no one knows where the price will end up. Historically gold and commodities have never offered a hedge against inflation. I invest in gold just for the ornamental sake and for a bit of diversification. I try not to make it more than 2% of my portfolio.

TShyam

March 1st, 2011, 12:49 PM

You both are right and wrong. Truth is it is all speculation and no one knows where the price will end up. Historically gold and commodities have never offered a hedge against inflation. I invest in gold just for the ornamental sake and for a bit of diversification. I try not to make it more than 2% of my portfolio.

Do you think the price rise is due to speculation? On the contrary, in 2010 it was the end users - the eastern countries which drove up the price of gold and the speculative money (read investors) actually trimmed its positions.

Maybe your opinion is based on what you read in western press but frankly west no longer controls the gold price. What happened in 70's was entirely different when countries like India and rest of Asia which have cultural affinity for gold didnt have a sizeable economic weight. While the "experts" in the west look at what is happening through their lens, most completely ignore the actual driver of gold prices and come up with simple explanations like crisis, speculation, money supply, manipulation etc etc to explain the price movement.

In 2010 total gold mined was 2500 tonnes. India imported close to 1000 tonnes and China consumed another 550 or 600 tonnes. If you add the other gold affinity countries like Vietnam, Middle East, Korea, Japan, you will find that the demand is actually higher than the supply.

And regarding the statement that gold is not an inflation hedge, you cannot take the 80 peak as one point of reference and 99 trough as another point of reference and come to that conclusion. Historically, over thousands of years, gold has retained its value. You could buy the same amount of rice with 10 gms of gold as someone ruled by emperor Ashoka bought with the same amount of gold. Now that is inflation protection.

If my great great grandfather earned a few hundred grams of gold after a bountiful harvest and decided to hide that gold in a safe place instead of buying a bullock cart, I could use that same gold to buy a car now. But if he had decided to save it in cash, i could take that out and may be have something worthless to remember him by. That my friend, is inflation protection.

Ofcourse, in a growth economy like India, you are better off investing in tangible assets which are certain to give a better return going forward. So I would recommend minimal allocation (just enough to satisfy the lady of the house) in gold, but if you think the price of gold is speculative and is about to crash, you are in for a big surprise.

For the record: Gold price is hovering around $1400/ounce (21500 rupees per 10 grams)

spidermanusa

March 1st, 2011, 01:17 PM

^^ I meant that the year end prices you and KT believe will end up in are speculative at best. You don't know whether it will be 1000 or 2000. Sure it is in an upward trend now but it can go down too.

I don't follow western gold press. I believe gold lost its inflation hedge when the US delinked the dollar from gold and the rest of the world started to follow the dollar. I have not done the research but it will be interesting to see the inflation adjusted price of gold in rupee terms.

TShyam

March 1st, 2011, 01:30 PM

yes yes i thought 2000 was a little bit optimistic and therefore offered 1700-1800 as a more likely target. Ofcourse these are just speculation. It can go even higher than 2000 or end up lower.

In rupee terms gold has been a good inflation hedge even in 80's and 90's.

Gold will stop being a inflation hedge when enough people stop thinking it is an inflation hedge (which i dont think is happening anytime soon). That is the irony of gold investment :)

ajnath

March 1st, 2011, 02:07 PM

No, I guess anybody above the slab (1.8 L), and are salaried need not file because they are accounted for in TDS.

But as reported in Hindu paper salary earners whose income (salary income only with no other income) is below 5 lakh need not file return. Others with income of above 5 lakh have to file return.

Link: http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/article1499280.ece

I don't know which one is correct. NDTV or Hindu :?

reswaran

March 1st, 2011, 02:24 PM

No, I guess anybody above the slab (1.8 L), and are salaried need not file because they are accounted for in TDS.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/union-budget-2011/No-need-to-file-returns-if-your-annual-salary-is-less-than-Rs-5L/articleshow/7597876.cms

The above link says its only if the annual income is < 5 lakhs and if there is no other source of income. In case, say, if there is some income due to the maturity of some FDs...then the salaried employee should file the returns.

greatchennai

March 1st, 2011, 04:03 PM

kongutamizhan

March 1st, 2011, 06:39 PM

Historically gold and commodities have never offered a hedge against inflation. I invest in gold just for the ornamental sake and for a bit of diversification. I try not to make it more than 2% of my portfolio.

Wait a minute. Gold rose about 500% last decade. If this doesn't hedge inflation what does? :)

Okay here is a 30 year gold chart (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7284184.stm)that explains in detail the reason for highs and lows. The data in this link is only till 2008 and obviously doesn't include the last 2.5 year run.

Gold prices has been pretty consistant except for the early 80's dip. The bank sell offs in late 90's like mentioned in BBC was poor timing by bank. And all these data anyways pertains to Europe and US for most part. Like Shyam said with growing power of Asia, Uncle Sam's currency printing spree, people looking for an alternative to $$, political unrests across the world all points North for Gold.

Having said all that, if you are thinking about using Gold as short-term hedge then forget it. Because of its volatality it might not work. But definitely a safe hedge for inflation long-term. If GOLD really starts behaving like GOLD (meaning moving in opposite direction to the market) unlike the last year or so, then it will be a good short-term hedge for your investment portfolio too. I think the trend already started now.

greatchennai,
Looks like you are an active trader. Been there done that :) Now I am in process of reducing my stock positions drastically and converting them all to funds. Infact I have close to 0% stocks and all funds on my tax advantaged accounts. I do still play around with stocks on my taxable accounts. Thinking of converting them all to ETF's too. Slowly turning into a Boglehead

Also didn't know that UK provides tax exemptions for a regular trading account upto 10000 pounds. Good info to know

kongutamizhan

March 1st, 2011, 06:59 PM

By the how real estate prices are doing in TN? At places like CBE, MDU and Trichy I feel that the price the brokers (and builders) quote are ridiculously high and doesn't justify when compared to avg salary of a middle class. For that matter I personally think it's not justified in Chennai either.

Anyone thinks that there will be a pullback? All are citing IT parks as major reason for the inflated price for the past few years. In reality very few high paying jobs are added in those cities to justify that rise.

kongutamizhan

March 1st, 2011, 07:26 PM

Good start -up from Kongu...

my few crappy ideas on Money matters :

Gold:

http://goldprice.org/

I used to buy Gold, whenever its falls to 6 months low...buy it local currency…because the net effect will be more, When GBP gets weak against USD its affect the gold price too...and go on...

UK FTSE Stocks:

My typical portfolio contains:

75% on Blue chips / FTSE 100
25% go on gambling - I mean investing on Oil drilling companies / Mining etc - gives you 50% returns overnight and 200% return on 1 year - Also downturn also vice versa - It all depneds on getting oil or water after 2000 meters deep drilling.....

Insiders info / rumours always pays and drains your money....:)

In UK up to 10000 GBP, non taxable on the trading accounts...

Taxes etc

If you do any contracting jobs , UK is one of the heaven place to get more take home salary than other places…And London is only place where you get best competitive packages on par with Manhattan / wall street amounts…

By the way if you are investing in India specific or Emerging market funds can you suggest a few? I just started looking into it. Here is how my portfolio looks like. I just have to revamp it within the last year from primarily stock based to funds. With India (OR) Emerging markets I am thinking of rounding-off my portfolio and wait sitting doing nothing for next 5 years to see how it performs

I am looking for one on my taxable account.

In IRA's (Tax advantaged)
Target date fund from T Rowe Price - 65%
High yield bonds from Metropolitan West - 15%
Gold ETF - 12%
Vanguard REIT ETF - 8% (Just got started in this)

401K

Stable value Fund - 50%
Moderate growth Equity - 25%
S & P small caps - 25%

Taxable brokarage account

100% US stocks. Thinking of replacing them all and go for an Emerging Market OR India specific funds / ETFs like MINDX or EPI

spidermanusa

March 1st, 2011, 08:45 PM

Wait a minute. Gold rose about 500% last decade. If this doesn't hedge inflation what does? :)
Here is a inflation adjusted gold price chart in USD (the link has 2010 numbers). Someone buying gold in 1980 did not see any real increase till date. I concede that after 2009 has seen a real increase. You should ignore data before 1971 as that was the year USD was delinked wrt gold.
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm
http://www.tflindia.in/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Gold-inflation-relationship.jpg

Granted the above is with US inflation rate. India's inflation rate has been steady in the last decade too.

India inflation rate
http://i.imgur.com/0uQlk.jpg

This blog post has similar views to mine.
http://www.tflindia.in/2010/07/should-indians-buy-gold-now.html

Slowly turning into a Boglehead

I frequently read that site. I'm currently reading All about Asset Allocation by Richard Ferri. I recommend that book to anyone interested in investing for retirement.

kongutamizhan

March 1st, 2011, 09:25 PM

Here is a inflation adjusted gold price chart in USD (the link has 2010 numbers). Someone buying gold in 1980 did not see any real increase till date. I concede that after 2009 has seen a real increase. You should ignore data before 1971 as that was the year USD was delinked wrt gold..

I guess you are taking that peak point just before that huge dip in early 80's for your comparison. If that's the only day I bought gold in my life during past 30 years then yes, you are correct!! But investing is all about Dollar cost averaging isn't? If you have invested with discipline in Gold every month / year then you should be laughing at inflation by now :)

Will check out the book you referred. I happened to read this (http://www.amazon.com/Bogleheads-Guide-Retirement-Planning/dp/0470455578)once while waiting for my wife at Barnes & Nobles and it made me change my investing pattern. (Subsequently bought it and is a keeper, still refer to it a lot). Every investor mistake that it said people are bound to make, I made. Wish I read that little earlier in my life..

By the way let me know if you are researching into any emerging market funds as well.

R2IChennai

March 2nd, 2011, 12:33 AM

I guess you are taking that peak point just before that huge dip in early 80's for your comparison. If that's the only day I bought gold in my life during past 30 years then yes, you are correct!! But investing is all about Dollar cost averaging isn't? If you have invested with discipline in Gold every month / year then you should be laughing at inflation by now :)

Will check out the book you referred. I happened to read this (http://www.amazon.com/Bogleheads-Guide-Retirement-Planning/dp/0470455578)once while waiting for my wife at Barnes & Nobles and it made me change my investing pattern. (Subsequently bought it and is a keeper, still refer to it a lot). Every investor mistake that it said people are bound to make, I made. Wish I read that little earlier in my life..

By the way let me know if you are researching into any emerging market funds as well.

I love bogleheads for all the diversifying I did with active mfs I still managed to be around +\_ 1% of sp 500

R2IChennai

March 2nd, 2011, 12:33 AM

kongutamizhan

March 2nd, 2011, 06:38 AM

I get electric shock when I heard Salem prices leave alone chennai

Hmm!! Are they talking in crores @ Salem yet?

greatchennai

March 2nd, 2011, 12:16 PM

By the way if you are investing in India specific or Emerging market funds can you suggest a few? I just started looking into it. Here is how my portfolio looks like. I just have to revamp it within the last year from primarily stock based to funds. With India (OR) Emerging markets I am thinking of rounding-off my portfolio and wait sitting doing nothing for next 5 years to see how it performs

I am looking for one on my taxable account.

In IRA's (Tax advantaged)
Target date fund from T Rowe Price - 65%
High yield bonds from Metropolitan West - 15%
Gold ETF - 12%
Vanguard REIT ETF - 8% (Just got started in this)

401K

Stable value Fund - 50%
Moderate growth Equity - 25%
S & P small caps - 25%

Taxable brokarage account

100% US stocks. Thinking of replacing them all and go for an Emerging Market OR India specific funds / ETFs like MINDX or EPI

I am not active trader though shuffles the portfolio once in 2 months and working in investment bank having its own problems of getting approvals for each and every transactions.

India Trading Accounts: Trading on my mum and brother accounts – 30% Bluechip, 30% Mid cap and 40% on Mutual funds – Again once in a month use to buy funds/shares….. …

Tata motors zoomed to 7% in Monday alone….we need to wait for 2 years in UK and US to get this return…..

Now a days I am going for some blind bets on funds – Just select any of the top rated funds from www.valueresearchonline.com and invest it…..most of the times the alpha is less compared to index….

I am not a big fan pension funds and there are no tax advantages here on investing in any specific funds….so my UK funds are selected merely from 1 or 3 year returns…….Fidelity china / JP morgan BRIC etc….the returns may not match between US and UK..because of weakness in GBP…

Again, the biggest confusion is where to park our money – India or US/UK……I don’t have any clear plan how many years will be here…so spreading nearly half of my investments between places…

RE prices:

I was a big fan of investing in lands…but now I changing to more of apts etc….Have a ground in Saravanapatty/marudhamalai ..and few in chennai....bought 2 years before,,,,no much appreciation I noticed…

On Comparative grounds – My apartment went 2 times of my investment and where lands are struggling at even 50% increase in prices…..again the location counts…

saysenthil

March 2nd, 2011, 02:08 PM

@ Konguthamizhan :

Thank you Sir.. thank you for starting such a wonderful thread. I am keen to know more.

@ TShyam, greatchennai & others:
Thank you guys... Its really nice to see you that you share ur thoughts and experiences. I hope i could share my ideas too in the future following ur footsteps.

Really cool!

:)

TShyam

March 2nd, 2011, 03:27 PM

More the number of people, better the quality and quantity of knowledge shared. You are definitely welcome to give your valuable inputs.

@KT: Intha thread ah konjam konjama NRI investment thread ah maathiteenga.

Regarding your discussion on real estate, I am surprised you are asking "in crores" Plots in small towns are going for 70-80 lacs. Prime land in Cbe are going for 4-5 crores. Do you expect prime land in Salem will sell in lacs? Ofcourse the commercial areas in Salem will go in crores.

I was a big fan of investing in lands…but now I changing to more of apts etc….Have a ground in Saravanapatty/marudhamalai ..and few in chennai....bought 2 years before,,,,no much appreciation I noticed…

On Comparative grounds – My apartment went 2 times of my investment and where lands are struggling at even 50% increase in prices…..again the location counts…

Here is a rule of thumb I can provide you. Land rate is a function of rent. In Chennai you can expect a return of anywhere between 3-5%.

For example, take a upcoming area like Madipakkam which has a high demand for properties. You can buy a 900-1000 sq.ft flat for around 30 lacs (say), you can earn a rental of 10000 p.m which means 120K for an year which is 4% of your investment.

Sooner or later, prices will always rise or fall to reflect this reality. If you find an apartment which gives higher returns (say 5% or more) go for it. More often the prices go up rather than the rent coming down.

Avoid apartments which give very low returns. For example take Oragadam. There are flats available there for 40 lacs or even 50 lacs. What is the rental income you can earn? Even if you find someone to rent it out to, you will be lucky to find people giving 6000 p.m. So maximum you will earn 72K per year which is 1.5% of your investment. Avoid these areas. No matter how much the sales guy try to convince you that it is a upcoming area - dont fall for it.

You can use the same method to buy vacant plots too. Just calculate how much you will earn if you develop the property and if it is more than say 3-4% (adding the development cost of course), that is a decent bet. In your case it seems you have made a smart bet on the apartment but not an equally good bet on the vacant land (but even 50% appreciation in 2 years is not bad at all by any measure considering that real estate was not in a bull market during that period).

Also dont invest in areas which have high investor interest (apartments in Oragadam, OMR). Always invest in areas where there is high end user interest. You will never lose money that way.

My current favorites are East and West Tambaram; Velacherry, Madipakkam, Medavakkam belt and adjacent areas on the south, Porur and Ambattur on the west and areas adjacent to Minjur, Ponneri and Panchetty in North Chennai. Grounds in these area is going for as little as 3 or 4 lac rupees!! North Chennai missed on the real estate boom of the last decade. I strongly beleive it is going to outperform this decade.

R2IChennai

March 2nd, 2011, 07:26 PM

Hmm!! Are they talking in crores @ Salem yet?

Yes 3000rs per sq feet for lands in prime areas

dineshpkm

March 5th, 2011, 09:17 AM

Yes 3000rs per sq feet for lands in prime areas

belive me or not.
we purchased land at 37rupee in 2006 at ayothiapattinam near salem. last year 2010 i sold it,guess the selling price???:)

250:bash::banana:

TShyam

March 7th, 2011, 09:56 AM

In six years from 2005-06, the Government of India wrote off corporate income tax worth Rs.3,74,937 crore — more than twice the 2G fraud — in successive Union budgets. The figure has grown every single year for which data are available. Corporate income tax written off in 2005-06 was Rs.34,618 crore. In the current budget, it is Rs.88,263 crore — an increase of 155 per cent. That is, the nation presently writes off over Rs.240 crore a day on average in corporate income tax. Oddly, that is also the daily average of illicit fund flows from India to foreign banks, according to a report of the Washington-based think tank, Global Financial Integrity.

The Rs.88,263 crore covers only corporate income tax write-offs. The figure does not include revenue foregone from higher exemption limits for wider sections of the public. Nor higher exemptions for senior citizens or (as in past budgets) for women. Just income tax for the big boys of the corporate world.

Pranab Mukherjee's latest budget, while writing off this gigantic sum for corporates, slashes thousands of crores from agriculture. As R. Ramakumar of the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS) points out, the revenue expenditure on that sector “is to fall in absolute terms by Rs.5,568 crore. Within agriculture, the largest fall is to be in crop husbandry, with an absolute cut of Rs.4,477 crore.” Which probably signals the death of extension services, amongst other things, in the sector. In fact, “within economic services, the largest cuts are to be in Agriculture and Allied Services.”

Even Kapil Sibal cannot defend the revenue losses as notional. For the simple reason that each budget sums up these numbers clearly in tables within a section called ‘Statement of Revenue Foregone.' If we add to this corporate karza maafi, revenue foregone in customs and excise duty — also very largely benefiting the corporate world and better off sections of society — the amounts are stunning. What, for instance, are some of the major items on which revenue is foregone in customs duty? Try diamonds and gold. Not quite aam aadmi or aurat items. This accounts for the largest chunk of all customs revenue foregone in the current budget. That is, for Rs.48,798 crore. Or well over half of what it takes to run a universal PDS system each year. In three years preceding this one, the customs write-off on gold, diamonds and jewellery totalled Rs.95,675 crore.

Of course, this being India, every plunder of public money for private profit is a pro-poor measure. You can hear the argument already: the huge bonanza for the gold and diamond crowd was only to save the jobs of poor workers in the midst of a global economic crisis. Touching. Only it didn't save a single job in Surat or elsewhere. Many Oriya workers in that industry returned home jobless to Ganjam from Surat as the sector tanked. A few other workers took their own lives in desperation. Also, the indulgence for industry predates the 2008 crisis. Industry in Maharashtra gained massively from the Centre's Corporate Socialism. Yet, in three years before the 2008 crisis, workers in the State lost their jobs at an average of 1,800 a day.

Returning to the budget: There's also the head of ‘machinery' with its own huge customs duty concessions. That includes surely, the crores of rupees of sophisticated medical equipment imported by large corporate hospitals with almost no duty levied on it. The claim of providing 30 per cent of their beds free of charge to the poor — something that has never once happened — is an excuse to dole out these ‘benefits' (amongst others) to that multi-billion rupee industry. Total revenue foregone on customs duty in the present budget: Rs.1,74,418 crore. (Which does not include export credit-related numbers).

With excise, of course, comes the standard claim that revenues foregone on excise duty translate into lower prices for consumers. There is no evidence provided at all that this has actually happened. Not in the budget, not elsewhere. (Sounds more like the argument now making the rounds in some Tamil Nadu villages that nothing was looted in the 2G scam — that's the money translating into cheaper calls for the public). What is clearly visible is that the write-offs on excise directly benefit industry and business. Any indirect ‘passing on' to consumers is a speculative claim, not proven. Revenue foregone on account of excise duty in this budget: Rs.1,98,291 crore. Clearly more than the highest estimate of the 2G scam losses. (The preceding year: Rs.1,69,121 crore).

Also fascinating is that the same classes benefit in multiple ways from all three write-offs. But how much does revenue foregone under corporate income tax, excise and customs duty add up to across the years? We have baldly stated budget figures for six years starting 2005-06, when the total was Rs.2,29,108 crore. To the current budget where it is more than double that sum at Rs.4,60,972 crore. Add up the figures since 2005-06 and the grand total is Rs.21,25,023 crore. Or close to half a trillion U.S. dollars. That is not merely 12 times the 2G scam losses. It is equal to or bigger than the Rs.21 lakh crore sum that Global Financial Integrity tells us has been siphoned out of this country and illegally stashed away in foreign banks since 1948 ($ 462 billion). Only, this loot has happened in six years starting 2005-06. The current budget figure for these three heads is 101 per cent higher than it was in 2005-06 (see Table).

Unlike the illicit fund flows, this plunder has a fig leaf of legality. Unlike those flows, it is not the sum of many individual crimes. It is government policy. It is in the Union budget. And it is the largest conceivable transfer of wealth and resources to the wealthy and the corporate world that the media never look at. Oddly, the budget itself recognises how regressive this trend is. Last year's budget noted: “The amount of revenue foregone continues to increase year after year. As a percentage of aggregate tax collection, revenue foregone remains high and shows an increasing trend as far as corporate income tax is considered for the financial year 2008-09. In case of indirect taxes, the trend shows a significant increase for the financial years 2009-10 due to a reduction in customs and excise duties. Therefore, to reverse this trend, an expansion in the tax base is called for.”

Rewind a year further. The 2009-10 budget says the same thing in almost identical words. Only the last line is different: “Therefore it is necessary to reverse this trend to sustain the high tax buoyancy.” In the current budget, the paragraph is absent.

This is the government that has no money for a universal PDS or even an enhanced one. That cuts anyway meagre food subsidies from the largest hungry population in the planet. That, at a time of rising prices and a great food crisis. In a period when its own economic survey shows us that the daily average net per capita availability of foodgrain for the five year period 2005-09 is actually lower than it was in 1955-59 — half-a-century ago.
http://www.thehindu.com/multimedia/dynamic/00495/07th_table_sainath_495797f.jpg

Vintage Sainath brilliant as usual. He explains how the smart people get around the system. If you are smart enough, you can use the article to find ways to become rich.

P.S: I can use other threads to show my holier than thou attitude, crib about the politicians, bureaucrats and rich corporates, give smartass public policy advice etc.. This thread is to make money (and keep it). So dont blame me for posting this article here.

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/article1514987.ece?homepage=true

Mr.Nellai

March 8th, 2011, 03:17 AM

http://epaper.dinamani.com/epaperimages/832011/08032011-cni-mn-04/23050328.JPG

kongutamizhan

March 8th, 2011, 05:47 PM

Traditionally we Indians tend to consider Gold investments a notch higher than Silver. Future might change considering the run silver had the past year. Apart from recent past performance, silver's industrial demand is on high too which is expected to drive its prices higher

A nice article from Naanayam Vikatan (http://new.vikatan.com/article.php?mid=6&sid=103&aid=3473)

தங்கமா, வெள்ளியா?

சூடு பிடிக்கும் முதலீட்டுப் போட்டி!

'தங்கம், வெள்ளி - இந்த இரண்டில் உங்கள் சாய்ஸ் எது?’ என்கிற கேள்வியை நம் மக்களிடம் கேட்டால், 'முதலில் தங்கம், அடுத்து வெள்ளி’ என்பார்கள். கடந்த ஓராண்டு காலம் வரை இதுதான் உண்மை. ஆனால், இன்றைக்கோ நிலைமை தலைகீழ். தங்கம் நாலு கால் பாய்ச்சலில் விலை உயர்கிறது என்றால், வெள்ளியோ பத்து கால் பாய்ச்சலில் படபடக்கிறது. ஓராண்டுக்கு முன்பு ஆசை ஆசையாக தங்கம் வாங்கியவர்கள் இப்போது வெள்ளி தந்திருக்கும் லாபத்தைப் பார்த்து விட்டு, 'பேசமால் வெள்ளி வாங்கியிருக்கலாமோ’ என்று தாடையில் கை வைத்து ஒற்றை விரலை ஆட்டியபடி யோசிக்க ஆரம்பித்திருக்கிறார்கள். வெள்ளியின் விலை உயர்வு அந்த அளவுக்கு அபாரமாக இருக்கிறது. தற்போது தங்கத்துக்கும் வெள்ளிக்கும் நடக்கிற விலைப் போட்டியை பார்த்தால் 'சபாஷ் சரியான போட்டி’ என வீரப்பா ஸ்டைலில் கைதட்ட வைக்கிறது.

தங்கம் தந்த லாபம்!

ஓராண்டு காலத்துக்கு முன்பு ஒரு டிராய் அவுன்ஸ் (31 கிராம்) தங்கம் அமெரிக்க டாலரில் சுமார் 1,120 டாலருக்கு கொஞ்சம் அதிகம். ஆனால், இன்றைக்கோ அதே ஒரு அவுன்ஸ் தங்கத்தின் விலை 1,420 டாலர். கிட்டத்தட்ட 300 டாலருக்கு மேல் தங்கம் விலை உயர்ந்திருக்கிறது! இதே விலையுயர்வை நம் மதிப்பில் சொல்ல வேண்டும் என்றால் ஓராண்டுக்கு முன்பு ஒரு கிராம் தங்கத்தின் விலை சுமார் 1,600 ரூபாய். அதே தங்கம் இப்போது 2,075 ரூபாய்!

கடந்த பிப்ரவரி மாதத்தில் மட்டும் தங்கத்தின் விலை ஆறு சதவிகிதம் விலை ஏற்றம் கண்டது. லிபியா போன்ற மத்திய கிழக்கு நாடுகளில் ஏற்பட்டுள்ள அரசியல் நெருக்கடிகள், வளரும் நாடுகளில் அதிகரித்து வரும் பணவீக்கம், அதிகரித்து வரும் பொருளாதார நெருக்கடி போன்ற காரணங்களுக்காக உலகெங்கும் தங்கத்தில் முதலீடு செய்வது அதிகரித்து வருகிறது.

உலகில் அதிக தங்க நுகர்வோர்களைக் கொண்ட இந்தியாவில் ஜனவரி மாதத்தில் தங்க இறக்குமதி 18% அதிகரித்தது. ஆனால் பிப்ரவரியில் 55% இறக்குமதி குறைந்து போனது. இதற்கு காரணம் இந்திய வங்கிகள் வட்டி விகிதங்களை அதிகரித்ததுதான். 2010-ல் இந்தியாவில் தங்கத்தின் தேவை 66% அதிகரித்து, 963 டன்னாக ஆனது. இதன் மதிப்பு 43 பில்லியன் டாலர் (இந்திய மதிப்பில் சுமார் 1,93,500 லட்சம் கோடி ரூபாய்!).

இப்போது நம் மக்கள் தங்க இ.டி.எஃப்-களையும் தாராளமாக வாங்க ஆரம்பித்துவிட்டார்கள். 2010-ன் முடிவில் உலகளவில் 2,175 டன் இ.டி.எஃப்-பில் முதலீடு செய்யப்பட்டிருக்கிறது. இதன் மதிப்பு 96 பில்லியன் டாலர்.

வெள்ளி தந்த லாபம்!

இனி வெள்ளி என்ன லாபம் கொடுத்தது என்று பார்ப்போம்.

ஓராண்டுக்கு முன்பு ஒரு அவுன்ஸ்(30 கிராம்) வெள்ளி சுமார் 17 டாலர். இன்று அதே வெள்ளி 34 டாலர். ஒரே ஆண்டில் அப்படியே டபுளாகி இருக்கிறது. இந்த விலையை நம் மதிப்பில் சொல்ல வேண்டும் என்றால் ஓராண்டுக்கு முன்பு ஒரு கிலோ வெள்ளி விலை சுமார் 26,000 ரூபாய். அதே வெள்ளி இன்று 53,000-த்தை தொட்டிருக்கிறது. நூற்றுக்கு நூறு சதவிகிதம் லாபம்.

தங்கமா? வெள்ளியா?

கடந்த ஓராண்டு கால லாபத்தை வைத்துப் பார்க்கும்போது இனி தங்கமா, வெள்ளியா என்ற கேள்வியைக் கேட்டால், வெள்ளிதான் என்று சட்டென சொல்லிவிடுவீர்கள். வெள்ளி முதலீடு இனி அள்ளித் தரும் என்பதற்கு ஐந்து காரணங்களைச் சொல்கிறார்கள் நிபுணர்கள். என்னென்ன காரணம்?

பயன்பாடு:

தங்கத்துக்கு ஆபரணப் பயன்பாடு மட்டுமே உண்டு. அதற்கு மேல் அதை அடகுக் கடையில் வைத்து பணம் வாங்கலாம். ஆனால் வெள்ளியைக் கொண்டு கலைப் பொருட்களைச் செய்யலாம். தொழிற்துறையிலும் பயன்படுத்தலாம். பலவிதமான எலெக்ட்ரானிக்ஸ் பொருட்களைத் தயார் செய்ய வெள்ளி ஒரு முக்கிய மூலப் பொருளாகப் பயன்படுத்தப்படுவது பலருக்கும் தெரியாத தகவல். சர்வதேச அளவில் தொழிற்துறைக்கு வெள்ளியின் தேவை மிக அதிகம். ஆபரணம், தொழிற்துறை என இரு விதங்களிலும் வெள்ளி பயன்படுவதால் எதிர்காலத்தில் அதன் விலை அதிகரிக்குமே ஒழிய, குறையாது.

விலை:

கடந்த முப்பது ஆண்டுகளில் தங்கம் விலை ஏகத்துக்கும் உயர்ந்துவிட்டது. தங்கத்தோடு ஒப்பிடும் போது வெள்ளியின் விலை கொஞ்சம் சகாயம்தான். ஒரு அவுன்ஸ் தங்கத்தை வாங்குகிற பணத்தில் 40 அவுன்ஸ் வெள்ளியை வாங்கிவிடலாம் என்பது இதற்கிருக்கும் தனிச்சிறப்பு.

அள்ளித் தந்த வெள்ளி:

கடந்த காலங்களில் தங்கம் கொடுத்த லாபத்தை வெள்ளி கொடுக்கவில்லை. 1975 முதல் இன்று வரை பார்த்தால், தங்கம் 650% லாபம் தந்திருக்கிறது. ஆனால் வெள்ளியோ (1984 முதல்) வெறும் 282% மட்டுமே லாபம் தந்திருக்கிறது. எனவே, இனிவரும் காலத்தில் தங்கம் விலை உயர்வது குறைந்து, வெள்ளி விலை ஏகத்துக்கு உயர வாய்ப்புண்டு.

அதிகரிக்கும் முதலீடு:

உலக அளவில் பெரும் பணக்காரர்கள் தங்கத்துக்கு இருக்கும் 'வீக்’கான எதிர்காலத் தைக் கண்டு பயந்து, அதை விற்றுவிட்டு, வெள்ளியை வாங்கத் தொடங்கி இருக்கிறார்கள். இதனால் அதன் விலை ஏகத்துக்கும் உயர ஆரம்பித்திருக்கிறது.

தங்கம் - வெள்ளி ரேஷியோ:

மேற்சொன்ன நான்கு காரணங்களைவிட முக்கியமான காரணம் இது. உலக அளவில் ஒரு அவுன்ஸ் தங்கத்துக்கு 36 அவுன்ஸ் வெள்ளி வாங்க முடியும் என்பது ஓரளவுக்கு சரியான விகிதம்.

1985-ல் ஒரு அவுன்ஸ் தங்கம் வாங்குகிற பணத்தில் 49 அவுன்ஸ் வெள்ளி வாங்க முடிந்தது. ஆனால், இன்றோ ஒரு அவுன்ஸ் தங்கத்தை வாங்குகிற பணத்தில் 42 அவுன்ஸ் வெள்ளியை வாங்கலாம். 13 ஆண்டுகளுக்குப் பிறகு இப்போதுதான் தங்கம் - வெள்ளி விலை விகிதம் குறைந்துள்ளது. வரும் காலங்களில் இந்த விகிதம் இன்னும்கூட குறைய வாய்ப்பிருக்கிறது.

மேலே கூறியபடி ஒரு அவுன்ஸ் தங்கத்திற்கு 36 அவுன்ஸ் வெள்ளி வாங்குகிற நிலைமை வரும்போது, வெள்ளியின் விலை தற்போதைய விலையான 34 டாலரிலிருந்து 39 டாலருக்கு உயர்ந்துவிடும். இந்த கணக்கைப் புரிந்து கொண்ட சிலர் இப்போதே வெள்ளியை வாங்கிக் குவிக்க ஆரம்பித்துவிட்டார்கள்.

ஆனால், நம் மக்களோ வெள்ளி முதலீடு என்றால் கொஞ்சம் சுணங்கத்தான் செய்வார்கள்.இத்தனை நாளும் வெள்ளியை மூன்றாம் தரமாகப் பார்த்தது பழங்கதையாக இருந்துவிட்டுப் போகட்டும். இனியாவது நம்மவர்கள் வெள்ளியின் மகிமையை உணரட்டும். லாபம் குவிக்கட்டும்!

spidermanusa

March 12th, 2011, 02:01 PM

spidermanusa

March 12th, 2011, 02:05 PM

reswaran

March 13th, 2011, 08:46 AM

அரட்டை அரங்கத்துல அடிச்சது போதும் இங்க வந்து கொஞ்சம் தெளிவு படுத்துங்க.

Topic: Life Insurance

What is a good plan for life insurance - Term or Endowment? I tried looking at the various plans on LICs website and got confused. Is it a good idea to have cash value add up in your insurance? I'm torn between getting a death benefit or sum assured option. What are the expert thoughts here?

Term insurance is the best. Generally one is advised to take 10 times their annual salary as the sum assured in the term insurance so that in case of demise of the policy holder, his/her family will be able to maintain the same standard of living. Again its better to go for 2 term insurance. LIC's term plan has the highest premium in the industry. Some of the private players (icici, kotak and aegon religare) have introduced e-policy whose premium is the lowest since there is no agent involved in buying these policies. So if you want to go for 60L sum assured, take 30L term policy with LIC and 30L term policy (e-policy) with ICICI or Kotak.

kongutamizhan

March 13th, 2011, 05:53 PM

Easwaran is correct. Term is the way to go.

Unfortunately in India insurance products are not treated as insurance products. We want to get back something if we pay something and that's the reason I think endowment policy sells well in India compared to other countries.

IMO, a smart investor like you should opt for term and take care of investing yourself. By taking an endowment policy you are paying extra premium to the company and insurance agent's pocket.

spidermanusa

March 13th, 2011, 05:54 PM

Term insurance is the best. Generally one is advised to take 10 times their annual salary as the sum assured in the term insurance so that in case of demise of the policy holder, his/her family will be able to maintain the same standard of living. Again its better to go for 2 term insurance. LIC's term plan has the highest premium in the industry. Some of the private players (icici, kotak and aegon religare) have introduced e-policy whose premium is the lowest since there is no agent involved in buying these policies. So if you want to go for 60L sum assured, take 30L term policy with LIC and 30L term policy (e-policy) with ICICI or Kotak.

Thanks. This helped.

Mr.Nellai

March 13th, 2011, 06:18 PM

Do anybody here have vast knowledge in share market? or do anybody have invested in share market? I need to know about RCF (fertilizer company), its prospect and everything.

kongutamizhan

March 13th, 2011, 06:51 PM

Mr.Nellai

March 13th, 2011, 09:25 PM

^^ I am no expert in speculating stocks. I could read technicals a bit :) So based on that my suggestion would be buy and hold. If the price goes down by 20% buy more :)

Technicals (http://www.equitymaster.com/result.asp?symbol=RCFL&name=RCF-Stock-Quote-Chart) of this particular stock look good. People are betting on future of Ag stocks, so the sector is on rise, this particular stock is trading on a discounted price now. So why not buy it?

Having said that the key is how much % of your investment portfolio RCF will be? Diversification is the key here. I would suggest to keep any individual stock by not more than 15% of your investment portfolio. However hard you try or day-trade, over a long-term you cannot beat the index IMO. I tried that for over 10 years and learnt it the hard way. As I mentioned in several posts here, I am moving away from stocks and towards mutual funds. I am not advising you to do the same. Age is also a key factor. If you are still in your 20's and earn well it makes sense to play with stocks during this phase than mutual funds.

First of all thank you.I am just graduating and i am not considering it seriously,it is just for passion.But nevertheless, like IIFL caption it is money honey.i had hardly 5 months experience in stock market.So far,i would say i have been very successful in stock market. You said you can't beat the IMo index. But,last january i bought a lot(1000) of put option of SAIL for 2.6, when it went on to 5.2, i thought i invested 2600 i got 5200, so that is enough but it went on to 19.2 so if u invested 2600 you would have got 19200:)

kongutamizhan

March 14th, 2011, 06:52 AM

You said you can't beat the IMo index. But,last january i bought a lot(1000) of put option of SAIL for 2.6, when it went on to 5.2, i thought i invested 2600 i got 5200, so that is enough but it went on to 19.2 so if u invested 2600 you would have got 19200:)

Congrats on your cherry pick. Beware that all your picks may not be cherries and you might end up holding lemon sometimes. That's why I said it's hard to beat index long-term, meaning if you start your investing in 25, by the time you are 60 if you managed to get 80% of index growth you are considered as a great investor :)

http://www.usatoday.com/MONEY/usaedition/2011-02-15-efficientmarket15_CV_U.htm

spidermanusa

March 14th, 2011, 09:08 AM

But,last january i bought a lot(1000) of put option of SAIL for 2.6, when it went on to 5.2, i thought i invested 2600 i got 5200, so that is enough but it went on to 19.2 so if u invested 2600 you would have got 19200:)

That is the problem. You never know when it is bad enough to get in or good enough to get out.

kongutamizhan

March 14th, 2011, 04:22 PM

Is the concept of Home owner's / Landlord's insurance catching up in India now among the homeowners? (especially middle class) Do we have enough awareness on this front yet? Tsunami in Japan made me to post this question.

krishnaswamy

March 14th, 2011, 05:08 PM

First of all thank you.I am just graduating and i am not considering it seriously,it is just for passion.But nevertheless, like IIFL caption it is money honey.i had hardly 5 months experience in stock market.So far,i would say i have been very successful in stock market. You said you can't beat the IMo index. But,last january i bought a lot(1000) of put option of SAIL for 2.6, when it went on to 5.2, i thought i invested 2600 i got 5200, so that is enough but it went on to 19.2 so if u invested 2600 you would have got 19200:)
I was very aggressive in Stock Market and made quick money in 2006 to 2007..
but 2008 caused big havoc...Learnt lot of lessons and now waiting for my turn into markets again

few things should be in mind in Stock Market.
1. after making significant returns, you should come out..."Pothum endra maname pon seiyum marunthu"
2. Stop loss is very important...
3. you should not invest everything into stock market(risk is very high). Still we are depend on FIIs which is not good.
4. Split your savings into FDs, mutual funds & pension funds,Gold, Land and finally into equities..
5. people tend to buy when the market is up.... that is false.. buy at lows and sell at highs.. when the mkt crashes 400 points, try to buy some good stocks...
6. IMO, GMR Infra, Gujarat NRE, WIPRO, Dena Bank, City union bank will be best bets for the horizon of 1-2 yrs (though they are not actively participating in the current market run)
7. Keep L&T,Infosys & TCS for a very long term view(10-15 yrs).. keep it as it is and it will multiply.. Infosys bonus is due for a very long time.

reswaran

March 15th, 2011, 07:02 AM

I was very aggressive in Stock Market and made quick money in 2006 to 2007..
but 2008 caused big havoc...Learnt lot of lessons and now waiting for my turn into markets again

few things should be in mind in Stock Market.
1. after making significant returns, you should come out..."Pothum endra maname pon seiyum marunthu"
2. Stop loss is very important...
3. you should not invest everything into stock market(risk is very high). Still we are depend on FIIs which is not good.
4. Split your savings into FDs, mutual funds & pension funds,Gold, Land and finally into equities..
5. people tend to buy when the market is up.... that is false.. buy at lows and sell at highs.. when the mkt crashes 400 points, try to buy some good stocks...
6. IMO, GMR Infra, Gujarat NRE, WIPRO, Dena Bank, City union bank will be best bets for the horizon of 1-2 yrs (though they are not actively participating in the current market run)
7. Keep L&T,Infosys & TCS for a very long term view(10-15 yrs).. keep it as it is and it will multiply.. Infosys bonus is due for a very long time.

I like to add a point

- DO NOT invest in stocks if you cannot spend time to study the market and stocks. It should be an on-going activity. If you dont have time, go for SIP in Mutual Funds. Fund Manager will take care of doing the work for you. Of course, the returns will not be as high as in stocks but at the same time risk is also low. Again you need to spend sometime once in 2-3 months to monitor and re-jig them if necessary.

satishanu

March 15th, 2011, 08:13 PM

kongutamizhan

March 15th, 2011, 08:50 PM

Had ups and downs with Stock but happy with land, apartment and precious metals investment back in India.

Also, recently RBI allowed to remit tax free $1million per year (from property sales) from India to overseas countries.

http://www4.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/services/travel/visa-power/a-non-resident-indian-can-remit-1-mn-from-property-sales/articleshow/7127486.cms

Why did they do that? Shouldn't the logic be the other way round, meaning money coming into India be tax-free? Good for NRIs deciding against R2I of-course, not sure if it's good for the country!!

kongutamizhan

March 15th, 2011, 11:31 PM

I am not a big fan of closed end funds. For some it might make perfect sense. Also if you are diversifying, this is one such option you can consider. My suggestion would be to keep it as last option (once you have exhausted stocks, precious metals, PPF, REIT's, mutual funds etc.,)

Source: Vikatan (http://new.vikatan.com/article.php?mid=6&sid=110&aid=3730)

எஃப்.டி-யைவிட அதிக லாபம் வேணுமா?

கூட்டணி சேர்வது என்றால் அது அவ்வளவு சாதாரண விஷயமா என்ன! அரசியலில் மட்டுமில்லை, முதலீட்டு விஷயத்திலும்கூட அப்படித்தான். முதலீட்டைப் பொறுத்தவரை பெரும்பாலானவர்கள் விரும்புவது குறைவான ரிஸ்க்கும் நல்ல வருமானமும் சேர்ந்து அமைக்கும் கூட்டணியைத்தான். அப்படி ஒரு வெற்றிக்கூட்டணியை அமைத்திருக்கிறது என்றால் அது 'ஃபிக்ஸட் மெச்சூரிட்டி பிளான்கள்’தான். சுருக்கமாகக் குறிப்பிடுவதென்றால் 'எஃப்.எம்.பி.’ கடந்த 2010-ம் ஆண்டில் மட்டும் சுமார் 340 எஃப்.எம்.பி. திட்டங்கள் புதிதாக வெளியிடப்பட்டு, 75,000 கோடி திரட்டப்பட்டிருக்கிறது என்பதை வைத்தே அதைப் புரிந்துகொள்ளலாம்.

மியூச்சுவல் ஃபண்டில் ஒரு வகைதான் இந்த எஃப்.எம்.பி. இதற்கு மட்டும் ஏன் இவ்வளவு ஆதரவு என்ற கேள்வியை 'ஹோலிஸ்டிக் இன்வெஸ்ட்மென்ட்’ நிறுவனத்தின் இயக்குநர் கே.ராமலிங்கத்திடம் கேட்டோம்...

''ஃபிக்ஸட் மெச்சூரிட்டி பிளான்கள் என்பது வேறு ஒன்று மில்லை, கடன் சார்ந்த மியூச்சுவல் திட்டங்கள்தான். வங்கி ஃபிக்ஸட் டெபாசிட் மாதிரிதான் இந்த ஃபண்டின் முதிர்வு காலங்களும். 'குளோஸ்ட் எண்டட்’ திட்ட மான இதில் திரட்டப்படும் நிதி, கமர்ஷியல் பேப்பர்கள், சர்டிஃபி கேட் ஆஃப் டெபாசிட், நிதிச் சந்தை, பாண்டுகள், கார்ப்பரேட் பாண்டுகள், ஃபிக்ஸட் டெபாசிட் போன்ற கடன் சார்ந்த திட்டங்களில் முதலீடு செய்யப்படும். இந்த ஆவணங்களின் முதிர்வும், எஃப்.எம்.பி. ஃபண்டின் முதிர்வும் கிட்டத்தட்ட ஒரே சமயத்தில் இருப்பது மாதிரி பார்த்துக் கொள்வார்கள். நுழைவு மற்றும் வெளியேறும் கட்டணம் கிடையாது. குறைந்தபட்சம் 5,000 ரூபாய் இருந்தால்கூட இதில் முதலீடு செய்துவிடலாம்'' என்று அடிப்படை விஷயங்களை விளக்கிச் சொன்ன ராமலிங்கம், எஃப்.எம்.பி. முதலீடு எப்போது லாபகரமாக இருக்கும் என்பதையும் குறிப்பிட்டார்.

''இது குளோஸ்ட் எண்டட் திட்டம் என்றாலும், என்.எஃப்.ஓ-வுக்குப் பிறகு பங்குச் சந்தையில் பட்டியலிடப்படும். அப்போது, பணம் தேவைப்பட்டால் இடையில் யூனிட்களை விற்றுக் கொள்ளலாம். அப்படி விற்க டீமேட் கணக்கு வேண்டும். மேலும், எஃப்.எம்.பி. ஃபண்டில் முதலீடு செய்யும்போது சந்தையில் வட்டி விகிதம் 9.50% என்று வைத்துக் கொள்வோம். இடையில் வட்டி விகிதம் 10.50 சதவிகிதத்துக்கு உயர்ந்துவிடுகிறது என்றால் எஃப்.எம்.பி-யின் என்.ஏ.வி. குறைந்து, தள்ளுபடி விலையில் வர்த்தகமாகும். இதுவே சந்தையில் வட்டி 8.50 சதவிகிதமாகக் குறையும்பட்சத்தில் எஃப்.எம்.பி. ஃபண்டுகளை வாங்க அதிக வரவேற்பு இருக்கும். முதலீட்டாளருக்கு ஃபிக்ஸட் டெபாசிட்டைவிட அதிக லாபம் கிடைக்கும்.

வட்டி விகிதம் உயரும்போது தான் இந்த ஃபண்டில் முதலீடு செய்யவேண்டும். அதுவும் அதிக முதிர்வு நாட்களைக் கொண்டவைகளில் முதலீடு செய்வது நல்லது. காரணம், முதலீடு செய்யப்படும்போது சந்தையில் என்ன வட்டி விகிதம் உள்ளதோ, அந்த அளவுக்கு முதிர்வின் போதும் கிடைக்க வாய்ப்பு இருக்கிறது.

இப்போது வட்டி அதிகரித்து வருவதால் எஃப்.எம்.பி. ஃபண்டுகளில் தாராளமாக முதலீடு செய்யலாம்.'' என்றவர் கவனிக்க வேண்டிய வேறு சில விஷயங்களையும் குறிப்பிடத் தவறவில்லை.

''ஃபிக்ஸட் மெச்சூரிட்டி பிளான்களில் ஃபிக்ஸட் டெபாசிட்டைப் போல் ஃபிக்ஸட் வருமானம் கிடைக்காது. அதே நேரத்தில், வங்கி டெபாசிட்டைக் காட்டிலும் ஃபிக்ஸட் மெச்சூரிட்டி திட்டங்களில் கொஞ்சம் அதிக வருமானம் எதிர்பார்க்கலாம்.

வருமான வரிக்குப் பிந்தைய நிலையில் எடுத்துக் கொண்டால் ஃபிக்ஸட் டெபாசிட்டைவிட அதிக லாபம் தரக்கூடியது. ஃபிக்ஸட் மெச்சூரிட்டி யூனிட்களை 12 மாதங்களுக்குள் விற்றால் குறுகிய கால மூலதன ஆதாயமாகக் கருதப்பட்டு வரி கட்ட வேண்டியதிருக்கும். ஓராண்டுக்கு மேல் யூனிட்களை வைத்திருந்து விற்கும் போது நீண்ட கால மூலதன ஆதாயத்துக்கு 10% (பணவீக்க சரிக்கட்டலுக்குப் பிறகு 20%) செலுத்த வேண்டும். இதுவே ஃபிக்ஸட் டெபாசிட் என்கிறபோது கிடைக்கும் வட்டி, வருமானத்தோடு சேர்க்கப்பட்டு அடிப்படை வரம்புக்கு ஏற்ப வரி (10%, 20%, 30%) செலுத்த வேண்டும்.

அதிக வரி வரம்புக்குள் இருப்பவர்களுக்கு, ஃபிக்ஸட் டெபாசிட்டைவிட எஃப்.எம்.பி. லாபகரமான முதலீடாக இருக்கும். அதற்கு எஃப்.எம்.பி-ன் முதிர்வு காலம் ஓராண்டுக்கு மேற்பட்டதாக இருப்பது அவசியம்'' என்றார்.

greatshankar

March 16th, 2011, 04:44 AM

I like to add a point

- DO NOT invest in stocks if you cannot spend time to study the market and stocks. It should be an on-going activity. If you dont have time, go for SIP in Mutual Funds. Fund Manager will take care of doing the work for you. Of course, the returns will not be as high as in stocks but at the same time risk is also low. Again you need to spend sometime once in 2-3 months to monitor and re-jig them if necessary.

I am following this forum to read about stock market: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/ Good stock analysis, Company balance sheets, Portfolios, Stock synopsis, Emerging companies much more...

jaish

March 16th, 2011, 06:19 AM

My idea would be Buy apartment or House in good upcoming area where you can expect good rent (like Marai malai nagar, Oragadam, siruseri, Ambattur) and let for the rent and Invest the rent in different portfolio ( Like Gold, Stock, MF). Here May be you can get the appericiation of Real estate and Financial Instruments also.

kongutamizhan

March 16th, 2011, 08:15 PM

^^ You haven't seen a housing bubble yet :) That threat is always there in India as long as we don't see some real infrastructure developments, and prices are affordable for majority of the population. I still don't see the value for money at current rate for any city in India (Metros included).

PS. I am saying this as someone having invested and profited from all my residential real estate investments in India.

saysenthil

March 17th, 2011, 02:16 PM

Have a look.....

Are you always at a loss while planning your finances?

Are you aware of the investment options available in the market?

How best can you plan your finances?

What are the crieria for evaluating an investment option?

Are mutual funds profitable investment options? When and how should one buy mutual funds?

In an hour-long chat on rediff.com, financial planning expert Sailesh Multani offered some valuable tips:

.......

http://www.rediff.com/business/report/perfin-some-last-minute-tax-planning-tips/20110317.htm

Mr.Nellai

March 19th, 2011, 02:30 AM

Again markets are down

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/2825/33625953.jpg (http://img21.imageshack.us/i/33625953.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://img21.imageshack.us/i/33625953.jpg)

kalyan_erode

March 25th, 2011, 11:19 AM

Hi Friends,

I have just now started trading.It would be great if someone can share their experiences on option trading.
Is it like normal stock trading or is there any hidden things?

TShyam

March 26th, 2011, 04:14 PM

F&O were originally devised as a insurance against big losses. You have lot of documentaries available on the evolution of F&O and the mathematics behind it. Those documentaries should be available in youtube (if not check out torrents - I got it form there).

Right now these derivatives are overwhelmingly used by institutions and hedge funds and one study found that 90% of retail investors actually lose money in this segment. Remember, you are up against seasoned professionals (not those dummy pieces you encounter in popular channels - people who make serious money rarely appear in business channels). So think twice before jumping in.

If you still insist on playing in options, I can give you one advice. Always sell options. Never buy - there are very few people who made money buying options. By selling, you put an upper limit to your profit but at the same time you are a lot safer. Unless markets behave very violently (like in Jan 2008), it is a steady source of income. Always sell calls and puts of pretty big and stable companies. ITC is my favorite. That stock rarely moves more than 5% either way within a month.

There is a strategy called as straddling. In this you bet that the stock wont move much from its current rate. For example, suppose ITC is going for 175, sell 165 puts and sell 190 calls. This way, as long as the stock is between 165 and 190, the options will expire worthless and you can keep all the money you got by selling the options. If the market is in bull phase, dont sell calls. Just limit yourself to selling puts. Vive versa if the market is in bear phase. Right now market is directionless and I would recommend you straddle the nifty between 5300 and 6000 for April expiry.

But remember, straddling will work only if the market is stable or if it is in a clear trend. Right now, there are both significant upside and downside risks, so be careful. I dont see markets breaching 5300 or 6000 within the next 33 days but if it does, you will lose money.

TShyam

March 26th, 2011, 04:38 PM

KT, Spiderman, GS, Krishnaswamy, Easwaran, anyone else here in F&O segment?

mentor008

March 26th, 2011, 07:53 PM

kongutamizhan

March 27th, 2011, 07:20 AM

I have a pension insurance plan from TATA AIG (Nirvana) bought way back in 2002. I invested at the end year of mad rush to max the 80C tax provision just Rs 10,000 per year. Experts advise whether to keep this going or close this invest in something else... anybody did anything similar like this?

Can you give little more details on this or point to a link? Also let us know the kind of riders you chose so that we can provide some insight.

kalyan_erode

March 27th, 2011, 08:12 AM

TShyam

March 27th, 2011, 11:35 AM

Thanks a lot for this.
So its better to stay away from option trading...

If you are not a professional - yes, better stay away. But you can do it now and then for some pocket change if you are dead sure how the market will go the next month. Do it just for fun, play with money you can afford to lose.

I too do it but only rarely and when the markets are stable. I ambush, steal some quick money (not something big, its just for the cheap thrill of it) and come back. Not regularly and definitely not right now.

kongutamizhan

March 27th, 2011, 12:22 PM

KT, Spiderman, GS, Krishnaswamy, Easwaran, anyone else here in F&O segment?

Stopped trading options long back !! Just funds and few stocks

mentor008

March 27th, 2011, 05:40 PM

Can you give little more details on this or point to a link? Also let us know the kind of riders you chose so that we can provide some insight.
Thanks Kongu for taking time to look into this...

Here is the link
http://www.tata-aig-life.com/life-needs/retirement-plans/nirvana.html

And, I have bought no riders on this policy. There are still 9 permiums left on this (9 premium paid 9*10K = 90K). Sum Assured on this is 2 lacs.

kongutamizhan

March 28th, 2011, 02:55 AM

Ok here are my thoughts!!

Pros.

Conservative but secure
Trust - brand TATA
Guaranteed addition of 10% sum assured once the plan is in place for 10 years
You haven't taken any additional riders which is good. I usually don't prefer them. You can buy them seperately for cheaper rates outside the plan always
Looks like you have tax advantages if earning in India

Cons.

Too conservative if you are still in 20's or 30's, even bank FD's can match their guaranteed / assured sum, having said that your risk level is not much different from your own selection of mutual funds or stocks (provided you diversify)

High fee compared to making your own choices

Too many peer plans to choose from, that do better with premium less than this

Overall I don't see much to say nagative about it. But if this is going to be your only investment for your retirement I would think hard again. Keep this as a part of your investment strategy definitely, but make sure that this does not to exceed about 20% of your overall investments. I can't stress enough to choose your own low fee highly rated mutual funds, precious metals and few blue chip stocks diversified across various sectors. This way you will be paying less premium and fee compared to any target date fund and will have that money work towards your needs instead of paying the fund managers and companies.

Mr.Nellai

March 28th, 2011, 05:03 AM

Thanks a lot for this.
So its better to stay away from option trading...

Option market is the highest risk associated as well as high income generating one. you can even get 4Xprofit, but at the same time if you are wrong you will endure 4X loss

This is what i understood from share market,
Markets react very sharply, how fast you can act according to the changes is all that matters!

I don't have the habit of taking delivery(except when i am more confident), all that i do is intraday trading! The market may go anyway but still you can make profit.

There are certain stocks, which irrespective of market conditions will decrease and there also certain stocks which irrespective of market condition will increase. This can be analysed by looking thro moving averages ,there are many correlations and statistical methods, but IIFL computes all these and provide it free of cost. I use them to trade for option market and not for stocks.

If you are going for stocks for delivery don't buy all at once, buy it in average,i.e if the value of stock decreases buy more , u need not sit in front of ur terminal to look after that, instead u can place orders automatically.

Sometimes, i place orders for value very less than trading value and also place orders for short selling much above the trading value. Sometimes luckily your order gets executed. This happened to me for BOSCH,in Jan it was trading around, 6300 i placed a short selling order for 6450, and buy value of 6150,there was a spike in both directions(up and down), but it didn't touch my value, luckily both orders got executed, despite the fact that i was not able to see both the values in the graph:lol:

TShyam

March 29th, 2011, 09:05 PM

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/multimedia/dynamic/00514/BL29_CUTIFANI_514623f.jpg
Mr Mark Cutifani, CEO, Anglogold Ashanti

A Chennai resident, Mrs. Srinivasan, gives the forecast on gold price to Anglogold Ashanti, world's third largest gold producing company. She is the mother of Mr Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan, Chief Financial Officer of Anglogold Ashanti.

“She has been the one who got it right over 80 per cent of the time. She seems to have got an intuitive feel of the price,” says Mr Mark Cutifani, CEO of the company.

Every week Mr Venkatakrishan, who is based in Johannesburg, speaks to his mother living in Chennai for the forecast. Indian families understand issues such as land/gold prices and inflation intuitively, and make wise decisions on when to and when not to buy. “Our conversations are very much around what Mrs Srinivasan sees in the market that many of the global experts do not on gold pricing,” says Mr Cutifani.

On his first visit to India, Mr Cutifani is highly impressed with the knowledge level among Indian consumers. “Indians are very sophisticated. Westerners are realising the need to invest in gold by following the Indians,” said the top official of the $4 billion Johannesburg-based company, which produces 4.6 million ounces (an ounce equals 30.103 gm) a year.

Speaking to Business Line at a resort in Mahabalipuram near Chennai last week, Mr Cutifani dealt on issues ranging from gold production to cost pressure and, more importantly, on shortage of gold in the market. “There is tremendous cost pressure in our industry,” he says. Excerpts from the interview:

World short of gold

At present, the total gold in circulation, or the total global stock above the ground, is 1,60,000 tonnes. If the world's economies grow at 3 per cent a year, it would mean 3 per cent of wealth should be added each year. And that means the industry should produce nearly 4,800 tonnes of gold every year (3 per cent of 1,60,000 tonne). But the production is not even half of that. “The world is short of gold,” he said.
Pricing pressure

The total cost of producing gold today is more than $1,000 an ounce, and that includes exploration, capital development, sustaining capital and other charges. The overall cost is heading towards $1,200 an ounce. But the major problem is the time taken from discovery to producing an ounce of gold is nearly 10 years. The capital commitment is significant and more than that the time involved, of putting a dollar in the ground and getting the return, is very long.
Value destroyed

In the last 20 years the gold producing industry has destroyed the value of the precious metal.

Only in the last two years has the industry seen positive returns, that is, above the cost of capital.

Even today the average returns would not be beyond 10 per cent despite the high gold price. The average production cost is going up by $100 an ounce each year.

There are a few factors on why the cost is going up. As there has been no return for the industry, there have been very few new gold discoveries.

The cost of discovery per ounce of gold has doubled in the last few years even as miners are mining every year 50 meters deeper, thus adding 3-5 per cent to the cost a year. The quality of the deposits has declined by more than 1.5 per cent a year for the last 20 years.

The new mines being developed are located far away, thereby adding to the logistics cost and the cost of providing support infrastructure such as developing new towns, and so on. Finally, the input inflation is at least four percentage points above the general inflation even as the capital items continue to be exposed to high inflation. So, on a real basis, the gold price is going up 10-12 per cent a year while on a nominal basis it is 15-16 per cent. That's what has happened in the last seven years. The pressure on the industry is 10-15 per cent every year and can only be offset by a company's ability to be innovative in its cost structures.

“We are no different from the Tatas on looking to improve productivity and reduce costs.”

The production price of around $1,400 is probably correct and will help the industry get a return on investment of around 10 per cent.

A $100 an ounce increase a year will help sustain that sort of increase but will not encourage crazy amounts into explorations and massive increases in production.

So, the cost of $1,450 an ounce and an increase of $100 an ounce every year is probably the right equation.
Major producers

Barrick Gold is the top producer with 7 million ounces followed by Newmount Mining Corporation (5 million) and Anglogold (4.6 million).

There could be around 20 substantive producers; around 50 small producers and a few individual producers.
Deposits

China does not have big deposits but many smaller ones, and accounts for around 10 per cent of the world's total gold production;

Australia accounts for 5 per cent and South Africa, 4 per cent. South America is growing and North America is flat.

You could see lots of action in the Middle East and Asia in the next 10 years.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/article1579171.ece

Guess gold is not in a bubble right now. I think fears of $1000 gold is unwarranted. Global production will seize at that rates.

spidermanusa

March 29th, 2011, 10:46 PM

KT, Spiderman, GS, Krishnaswamy, Easwaran, anyone else here in F&O segment?

Never. I'm a low risk taker by habit. I don't see myself doing it in the future. All my play money will be used to buy individual stocks.

krishnaswamy

March 29th, 2011, 11:47 PM

I am not on F&O. I bet on cash segment.

mentor008

March 30th, 2011, 01:42 AM

TShyam

March 31st, 2011, 07:25 PM

(Kitco News) - India’s gold demand gold will rise by nearly 3% annually over the next decade and top 1,200 metric tons a year by 2020, the World Gold Council said in a report Thursday.

By contrast, in 2010, total consumer demand in India was 963.1 metric tons, the World Gold Council reported.

The findings were included a report titled “India: Heart of Gold,” which comes on the heels of another WGC report focusing on India in November. The latest research included forecasts from the Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE) and contributions from academics and industry experts, specially commissioned by the World Gold Council.

“The rise of India as an economic power will continue to have gold at its heart,” said Ajay Mitra, managing director, India and the Middle East, for the World Gold Council. “India already occupies a unique position in the world gold market and, as private wealth in India surges over the next 10 years, so will Indian demand for gold.”

The CMIE forecasts that India’s annual real gross domestic product will grow at over 10% from 2010-15, before slowing to an average rate of around 8.4% until 2020

Along with growth, India will face socio and demographic challenges due to its immense diversity, Mitra said.

“This also applies to the gold market,” Mitra said. “Nevertheless, gold purchasing will continue, underpinned by India’s long-standing and deep cultural affinity for gold; a love affair which transcends generations and makes India unlike any other gold market.”

The report shows that at a total of 18,000 metric tons, Indian households hold the largest stock of gold in the world. Gold purchases in India accounted for 32% of the global total in 2010.

“Our macroeconomic forecast to 2020 shows India is poised for a very strong period of economic growth and this has significant, positive implications for all forms of gold purchasing in India,” said Mahesh Vyas, managing director and chief executive officer of the CMIE. “Our findings endorse the fundamental strength of the Indian gold market. We predict that new demand for gold will be driven by rapid GDP growth, urbanization, the emergence of a strong middle class, and a sustained and potentially rising savings rate of 30-40% of income.”

Jewelry purchases in the country are linked to value, wealth preservation and growth rather than pure adornment, meaning little distinction between investment and jewelry demand, said the WGC. Gold purchases tied to Indian weddings typically account for some 50% of annual jewelry demand. With 50% of the Indian population under age 25 and approximately 150 million weddings anticipated over the next decade, the World Gold Council estimated that wedding-related purchasing alone will amount to approximately 500 metric tons of demand a year.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110331ASKN.html

TShyam

April 2nd, 2011, 02:47 AM

NEW DELHI –India's merchandise exports surged almost 50% in February from a year earlier thanks to improving global demand while local manufacturing activity remained buoyant because of steady order inflows, helping douse worries that economic growth might slow.

Exports during the month stood at $23.5 billion, according to provisional data issued Friday by the Ministry of Commerce.

.......

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703806304576235910758480104.html?mod=WSJINDIA_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews

Currently imports are anywhere between 40 - 50% higher than exports. But exports are approaching 1 billion a day mark. With increasing manufacturing competitiveness, lower dependency ratio, higher skilled labour, higher local interest rates, and loose monetary policy in the west, its just a matter of time (maybe 2 - 3 years) before we achieve a trade surplus.

How will it affect your investment

- Expect Rupee to appreciate from its current trading band of 45 - 45.50. Barring some extreme shock on the oil front, personally I believe 41-42 (close to 10% appreciation) at the end of the year is on the cards.

- NRI's can bring in remittances now. You may not get similar exchange rates later. This applies particularly to expats in West excluding the "hard currency nations" of Canada, Australia and Swiss. Not so much for expats in east since their currency will also appreciate commensurately.

- Interest rates are close to the upper end of the curve. Now is an excellent time to go for fixed return instruments. FD's are fetching close to 10%. Investing in bonds is an even better option. You can make a killing in capital appreciation as we enter a lower interest rate regimen.

- FII and FDI flows which seized in the first quarter of this year will return in all probability. This is because they will get the double benefit of rising markets and rising currency. So buying the market in dips will be a good idea (particularly when markets trade in sub 5600 regions). But this is not the first choice investment barring some very good individual scrips.

- Gold: Not the best investment right now, particularly for Indians.

spidermanusa

April 4th, 2011, 12:16 PM

- NRI's can bring in remittances now. You may not get similar exchange rates later. This applies particularly to expats in West excluding the "hard currency nations" of Canada, Australia and Swiss. Not so much for expats in east since their currency will also appreciate commensurately.

Speaking for the dollar, it is low at this point. While the predictions for its demise is well known, it will rise higher before it goes down. There are so many factors at play here (China's dollar peg, oil sold in dollars, Euro British pound and Jap Yen making up most of the dollar index) it is impossible to predict. Short term you might be ok to hold dollars, long term it is advisable to move into other currencies. Asian currency sounds like a great suggestion.

mentor008

April 4th, 2011, 05:30 PM

Speaking for the dollar, it is low at this point. While the predictions for its demise is well known, it will rise higher before it goes down. There are so many factors at play here (China's dollar peg, oil sold in dollars, Euro British pound and Jap Yen making up most of the dollar index) it is impossible to predict. Short term you might be ok to hold dollars, long term it is advisable to move into other currencies. Asian currency sounds like a great suggestion.
I guess, the predictions of demise of USD is directly related to US political power and its military dominance, because the dollar is propped up by political and military power. So, its very long into future the demise of US political and mititary power could occur therefore the demise of USD also not short term its in fact verrrrrry long into future.

Thats just my opinion.

spidermanusa

April 4th, 2011, 06:48 PM

I guess, the predictions of demise of USD is directly related to US political power and its military dominance, because the dollar is propped up by political and military power. So, its very long into future the demise of US political and mititary power could occur therefore the demise of USD also not short term its in fact verrrrrry long into future.

Thats just my opinion.

That is one way to look at it. The dollar's demise, if it should occur, will be due to hyperinflation. Political and military power helps to sell oil in dollars. Notice the middle east. In the years ahead US will be an important country but it won't be the only one.

TShyam

April 4th, 2011, 08:07 PM

I am not predicting any demise of US dollar but just that Re will appreciate vis a vis $ going forward. It is better to have your savings in rupees rather than in dollars, thats it. I am with Spiderman's assertion of $'s relevance because of its link to crude oil and Chinese Yuan.

I dont think US is going to have any sort of hyperinflation episode. Inflation or stagflation - yes. Hyperinflation - no. Hyperinflation essentially means the end of the currency system, like what happened in Zimbabwe. That is not going to happen in US.

mentor008

April 5th, 2011, 01:14 AM

- Gold: Not the best investment right now, particularly for Indians.

Is it not a good idea to invest in physical gold coins/biscuits in India, now?

TShyam

April 5th, 2011, 09:27 AM

Its not that gold will not appreciate. But other investment vehicles offer a much better alternative. Gold is now going at around 21000/10gm and I dont see it appreciating more than say 25000 in the next two years. It is good return for a western investor but not from an Indian point of view.

Why do you want to invest in gold coins/bars anyway? Jewelery needs to appreciate 10 - 15% just to break even and in case of bars/coins, you need an appreciation of 5% (around 1000 rupees/10gm) just to cover the cost of buying and selling (its much worse if you go for coins sold in nationalized banks). If you really want to invest in gold, go for etf's. You lose only around 1% in transaction cost, don't need to worry about purity, dont need to worry about liquidity, no storage headaches etc.

To sum up, you are not going to lose money in gold but the rate of appreciation wouldnt match up to other options. If you are really interested, go for etf's.

shyam_prasad99

April 8th, 2011, 04:02 AM

Real good piece of advice(highlighted) I received in the recent days related to Real Estate Investment. Thanks TShyam!

More the number of people, better the quality and quantity of knowledge shared. You are definitely welcome to give your valuable inputs.

@KT: Intha thread ah konjam konjama NRI investment thread ah maathiteenga.

Regarding your discussion on real estate, I am surprised you are asking "in crores" Plots in small towns are going for 70-80 lacs. Prime land in Cbe are going for 4-5 crores. Do you expect prime land in Salem will sell in lacs? Ofcourse the commercial areas in Salem will go in crores.

Here is a rule of thumb I can provide you. Land rate is a function of rent. In Chennai you can expect a return of anywhere between 3-5%.

For example, take a upcoming area like Madipakkam which has a high demand for properties. You can buy a 900-1000 sq.ft flat for around 30 lacs (say), you can earn a rental of 10000 p.m which means 120K for an year which is 4% of your investment.

Sooner or later, prices will always rise or fall to reflect this reality. If you find an apartment which gives higher returns (say 5% or more) go for it. More often the prices go up rather than the rent coming down.

Avoid apartments which give very low returns. For example take Oragadam. There are flats available there for 40 lacs or even 50 lacs. What is the rental income you can earn? Even if you find someone to rent it out to, you will be lucky to find people giving 6000 p.m. So maximum you will earn 72K per year which is 1.5% of your investment. Avoid these areas. No matter how much the sales guy try to convince you that it is a upcoming area - dont fall for it.

You can use the same method to buy vacant plots too. Just calculate how much you will earn if you develop the property and if it is more than say 3-4% (adding the development cost of course), that is a decent bet. In your case it seems you have made a smart bet on the apartment but not an equally good bet on the vacant land (but even 50% appreciation in 2 years is not bad at all by any measure considering that real estate was not in a bull market during that period).

Also dont invest in areas which have high investor interest (apartments in Oragadam, OMR). Always invest in areas where there is high end user interest. You will never lose money that way.

My current favorites are East and West Tambaram; Velacherry, Madipakkam, Medavakkam belt and adjacent areas on the south, Porur and Ambattur on the west and areas adjacent to Minjur, Ponneri and Panchetty in North Chennai. Grounds in these area is going for as little as 3 or 4 lac rupees!! North Chennai missed on the real estate boom of the last decade. I strongly beleive it is going to outperform this decade.

TShyam

April 8th, 2011, 04:56 AM

My pleasure. Please do contribute.

TShyam

April 14th, 2011, 01:48 PM

http://www.business-standard.com/newsimgfiles/2011/april/14042011/041411_14.jpg

The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) opened its fresh issue of bonds from April 1, which will remain open till March 31 next year.

Each bond has a face value of Rs 10,000 and you can buy up to 500 bonds — a minimum of Rs 10,000 and a maximum of Rs 50 lakh. You will earn an interest of six per cent annually to be paid on March 31 every year — low, if you consider returns of 8.5 and eight per cent given by the Employee Provident Fund and the Public Provident Fund, respectively.

The investment tenure is three years and you can redeem the bonds after this. These bonds are neither transferable nor negotiable. Also, these cannot be kept as security for loans or advance.

The good part is that these bonds offer tax benefits under Section 54EC of the Income Tax Act. Here, capital gains from sale of long-term capital assets as real estate, gold or shares can be reinvested in these instruments for tax exemption. The long-term capital gains tax is 10 per cent without indexation and 20 per cent with indexation. However, the interest earned is added to your income and taxed.

Those selling property and not willing to reinvest in any other property can put their money in the NHAI bond. The investment has to be made within six months from the date of transfer of the property to be able to claim the tax deduction. Importantly, this is a risk-free investment and has no brokerage cost.

However, if the long-term capital gains are over Rs 50 lakh and accrued after October 1, you can split the investment into two parts. You can invest Rs 50 lakh before March 31 and the remaining (up to Rs 50 lakh) on April 1. Tax benefits can be availed for a total of Rs 1 crore.

Keep in mind the long-term capital gains earned by selling a residential flat or a house, which you owned for at least three years, you can invest in these bonds. These bonds also make sense for risk-averse investors.

But financial planners are not enthused by these bonds because of low returns. Say, you receive capital gains of Rs 5 lakh, which you invest in NHAI bonds. At six per cent, your investment increases to Rs 595,508 after three years. Of which, Rs 95,508 is taxable.

Alternately, if you reinvest the amount in mutual funds, you have to pay a capital gains tax of 10 per cent without indexation. Post tax, if you invest the Rs 4.5 lakh in an equity-diversified fund, you will get 12-15 per cent returns on an average. At the end of three years, you would have earned Rs 6.32-6.84 lakh, tax-free. Equity diversified funds have returned nearly seven per cent annually. So, at the end of three years, you would have earned tax-free Rs 6.04 lakh.

If you want to buy these bonds, you should hurry as NHAI can close the issue before the last date if they mop-up the required amount.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/nhai-bonds-low-returns-for-risk-averse/432160/

This post is for factual purpose and not an investment advice.

TShyam

April 15th, 2011, 06:10 PM

Found a really weird paper in the statistical finance section of the Cornell University Library

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1012/1012.4118.pdf

The authors have used a mathematical model called "log periodic fluctuations" to arrive at a conclusion that gold prices may plummet sometime in May or June this year from a level of between $1500 to $1700. The model is actually a hyperbolic one with local maxima's and minima's. They show that this model have predicted peak oil on July 18 2008 (the actual peak was on 14th July 2008 at $147).

I am pretty dense about these kind of mathematical models but the fit it shows to the actual price points is startling (fig 4 - page 6). It will be interesting to know if this model proves itself correct twice in 3 years in two of the most widely traded commodities.

P.S: Gold has spiked today and is trading at an all time high of $1487. It is on the verge of breaking past 1500. Is it going to collapse in 1 or 2 months as predicted by the model? We will have to wait and see.

CBE_Poonakutty

April 16th, 2011, 10:02 PM

Statistical finance section of Cornell University?? How do you even manage to find such papers? Sometime it is hard to believe you are a doc :lol:

Great find btw. Thoroughly enjoyed it.

TShyam

April 17th, 2011, 09:33 AM

You can ask medical Q's if you want. I will google and tell you the answer :lol:

kongutamizhan

April 17th, 2011, 06:49 PM

P.S: Gold has spiked today and is trading at an all time high of $1487. It is on the verge of breaking past 1500. Is it going to collapse in 1 or 2 months as predicted by the model? We will have to wait and see.

You think that all uncertainties and in-securities are things of past in the world that we live in? As long as that exists, that will guarantee gold prices up.

Also this century could be the beginning of global economy moving away slowly from US dollar (slowly, but steadily). Till we see a solid alternative in short-to-intermediate term this is another reason to be bullish on Gold. I have a systematic investment plan in Gold and Silver + US REIT's. Hoping that they will go up with fingers crossed :)

TShyam

April 18th, 2011, 09:59 AM

You think that all uncertainties and in-securities are things of past in the world that we live in? As long as that exists, that will guarantee gold prices up.

It is just a technical paper and is not based on fundamentals. Further, long term fundamental strength does not prevent short to medium term meltdowns. Gold will go up if you are looking at a 3 or 5 year horizon, but that does not mean it will go up in one straight line. Nothing does. There are now a lot of indicators which show commodities (not just precious metals but industrial commodities) are in overbought or speculative zone even by historical standards. Goldman came out with underweight rating for commodities a few days ago. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/goldman-sachs-says-underweight-on-commodities-for-3-6-months.html) So I wouldn't be surprised if gold (and crude and other industrial commodities) take a sharp correction in the months ahead.

No problem if you are investing in SIP's. Continue doing that. If you see a correction, just increase your allocation. Set fixed downside price points. For example if gold peaks at 1600 and if you set 10%,15% and 20% downside, then your price points will be approx $1450, $1350 and $1300. Suppose if you are allocating say $200 right now, you can increase it to $300, $350 and $400 respectively if the spot rates stay below those levels.

Also this century could be the beginning of global economy moving away slowly from US dollar (slowly, but steadily).

That is true. I dont think the $ will be the reserve currency of the world just a decade or 2 from now. Initiatives like the BRICS establishing local credit lines are steps in the right direction. It is only a matter of time before other countries does this too. The Fed dumped too many dollars on the world economy leading to worldwide inflation and it is only correct that the world weans itself of the dependency of the US dollar which now accounts for less than a quarter of world's economy for the first time in 120 - 130 years and is no longer the fulcrum of world economy.

Mr.Nellai

April 22nd, 2011, 02:31 PM

Servalakshmi Paper to raise Rs 60 crore via IPO

Tamil Nadu-based Servall Group company Servalakshmi Paper today said it will enter the primary market next week to raise up to Rs 60 crore to fund its expansion plans.

The company's IPO opens on April 27 and closes on April 29. The price band has been fixed at Rs 27 to Rs 29.

At the upper price range, the company will be able to mop up Rs 60 crore from the issue through 100 per cent book building process.

"We have already set up a integrated paper mill with a capacity to produce 300 tonne per day or 90,000 tonne per annum along with a multi-fuel captive power plant in phase one," Servall Group chairman R Ramswamy told reporters here.

Post-issue, the promoter stake in the paper firm is expected to come down to 55 per cent, he said.

It will issue up to 50 per cent equity share, of which at least 10 per cent will be alloted to QIBs, the company said.

He said out of the total estimated investment of Rs 340 crore, the company has already invested Rs 280 crore and for phase two, it will raise the remaining Rs 60 crore through the IPO. The issue proceeds will be spent on buying equipment to produce value-added products, enhance capacity to 1,08,000 tonne annually and augment working capital needs.

The paper mill has installed a co-generation power plant with a 15 MW capacity. The mill located at Kodaganallur village in Tirunelveli district has commenced production from this month.

Source: Economic times (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/rights-issues/servalakshmi-paper-to-raise-rs-60-crore-via-ipo/articleshow/8048250.cms)

TShyam

April 29th, 2011, 10:59 PM

Right now market is directionless and I would recommend you straddle the nifty between 5300 and 6000 for April expiry.

But remember, straddling will work only if the market is stable or if it is in a clear trend. Right now, there are both significant upside and downside risks, so be careful. I dont see markets breaching 5300 or 6000 within the next 33 days but if it does, you will lose money.

Kalyan:
Markets didnt breach the two levels for April expiry. It expired at around 5800. If you have sold 5300 puts and 6000 calls, they would have expired worthless and you would have pocketed all the money you got by selling those options :). I believe now you get the wind of how to play options. For May expiry, try selling 6000 calls @ 75.15 for a lot. It will expire worthless if the index stays below 6000 on 26th May. Dont straddle for May because
1. None of the put options is going for good price right now and
2. There is significant downside risk of US carry trade unwinding which may prompt a volatile downswing.

pritm

April 30th, 2011, 04:46 AM

Is it worth investing in some foreign currencies?
Any idea that they will appreciate aganist INR?

TShyam

April 30th, 2011, 04:59 AM

I dont think investing in foreign currencies is a good idea. Not because you wont get profit but because

1. There are some hard currencies (Swiss franc, Aus, Sing and Can $ etc) which would do well going forward but they will invariably fall against gold and other precious metals. For example Swiss franc appreciated 10% respective to US $ this year, but has depreciated 7 - 8% if gold is your frame of reference. Just imagine US $ as a fixed point - these hard currencies (basically resource rich or export surplus economies) will move in the same direction as gold but with a lesser magnitude. So If you want to invest in foreign currencies, then better go for gold or silver etf's. They hold value much better than even the best hard currency.
2. There are too many regulations regarding foreign currency holdings.
3. You will not get fair value. For example, in Thomas Cook, the rate they buy and sell a currency has a difference of more than 10%. Your trade has to appreciate 10% just to break even.

kongutamizhan

April 30th, 2011, 05:04 AM

My opinion is it's not good time for currency trading. Things were never as confusing on that front as it is now. The reason I am saying this is, dollar is going down day by day, but US economy as such looks good finally. It looks contradictory, but yes that's what is happening right now.

All top companies finally seem to show good results and most of bluechips listed in DJI predict rosy path ahead. Tech was little doubtful earlier but they too seemed to have weathered the bad phase for most part. Banking still has to improve. Also there is another theory that loss in $$ value might be another reason for stock market boom. And fed is still printing money.

All these points to a totally confused scenario now on the dollar front. Will $$ go up? May be or not. Your guess is as good as mine. For sure because of all these it's inevitable that an alternative currency will emerge. Will Euro, Yen, Chinese yuan, a common BRIC currency fill the gap? Possible. Euro takes the lead for now, but I doubt their future compared to BRIC or US (considering population, age, productivity etc.,). For now my suggestion for whatever it's worth would be to stay away from it in near term. This confusion is precisely the reason why you should be investing in GOLD for now.

Can't stress enough. Gold is the only alternative for $$ till the confusion ends. Confusions trigger fear. When people fear they turn to gold :) Also I am bullish on US stocks and REIT's now in near-term. Also if there is a concept of trading REIT in India (I am not aware of it) get it. Office space is precious in India now.

TShyam

April 30th, 2011, 05:14 AM

Fed is slowly turning into a ponzi scheme. They dont even declare their M3 anymore. Its not that all the assets are increasing in value. Its just that the frame of reference (US$) is losing its value due to the quantitative easing measures, printing trillions of dollars and the easy money policies. As a result more dollars are chasing goods. So everything from commodities to foreign currencies and corporate profits are increasing in US$ terms.

Will US$ turn around? There is a very high likelihood of a technical bounce back (the so called "dead cat bounce") but there is no doubt that the medium term outlook for the $ is downward.

kongutamizhan

April 30th, 2011, 05:24 AM

Will US$ turn around? There is a very high likelihood of a technical bounce back (the so called "dead cat bounce") but there is no doubt that the medium term outlook for the $ is downward.

That's what I think too. But hey the alternative doesn't look good either one reason why $$$ might go up sooner than natural process. That's precisely the reason why gold looks awsome in near term. People who traditonally don't buy gold will turn to it because of this confusion in alternative + traditional buyers like asians who will continue buying irrespective of price + insecurity in middle east....

At the risk of trying to push and force everyone to invest in gold, I say Go GOLD :lol:

kongutamizhan

April 30th, 2011, 07:21 PM

While Gold and Silver investments are popular, most people often never look into Platinum which is also called as rich man's gold. Platinum investments are not for the weak hearted. The price fluctuation in platinum is often uncomfortable for many.

IMO Platinum is an excellent and probably a more precise indicator of economy. Traditionally platinum tends to do better during good times and worse during recession (unlike gold). On a bullish economy platinum can go twice the price as gold. Similarly price could drop below gold price during recession. The reason is simple. Unlike gold, platinum has industrial uses and is rare with mine production only about 210 tonnes / year.

For precious metal fans if you are skeptic on Gold prices, hedge it within the sector by splitting up your precious metal investments between Gold, Silver and Platinum. Don't miss the opportunity to load up platinum when next recession hits. You will most likely see your best ROI with this strategy.

Even now since the recovery from the slump is sluggish across the world I think Platinum haven't hit the peak yet and has scope to grow further.

Here is the 5-year chart for platinum

http://www.monex.com/images/charts/PL_LINE_1825DAY_BIG.PNG

kongutamizhan

May 5th, 2011, 05:02 PM

I found another way to make money from short-to-intermediate term.

Watch out for what this guy says (http://profit.ndtv.com/opinion/show/buy-commodities-not-stocks-jim-rogers-145029) and do the exact opposite :lol:

Commodities are beaten down real badly the last 2-3 days. For those who are not into commodities, good time to open a position as a part of diversification.

kongutamizhan

May 6th, 2011, 11:25 PM

Cross posting from Arattai arangam thread. Actually it's more appropriate here

Deposit schemes in TN power finance....

http://www.tnpowerfinance.com/Profile.aspx

Interest rates are highly competitive and is a win-win situation for both us and the government. Also has tax benefits, better than FDs IMO.

josephantony

May 9th, 2011, 05:47 PM

kongu tamizha kalakura paa!

krishnaswamy

May 9th, 2011, 08:27 PM

kongutamizhan

May 9th, 2011, 08:58 PM

^^ Didn't know that.

Do you know anything about their dis-investment plan? They have been talking about it for a while

krishnaswamy

May 10th, 2011, 09:13 PM

^^ Didn't know that.
Do you know anything about their dis-investment plan? They have been talking about it for a while
Govt is planned to shed 5% from PFC.. it is open till next 3 days.

kongutamizhan

July 11th, 2011, 08:22 PM

Is this guy crazy or genius? Says Sensex to hit 45000 may be around 2016. Predicting by pattern ofcourse works from short to medium term. I feel that the article lacks deep research on the direction of global (and indian) economy to make such tall claims.

Source (http://www.vikatan.com/article.php?mid=6&sid=223&aid=8034)

கடந்த சில மாதங்களாகவே சந்தை அதிக ஏற்றமும் இறக்கமும் இல்லாமல் பக்கவாட்டிலேயே வர்த்தகமானது. ஆனால், சென்ற மாதம் (ஜூன் 20) சந்தை திடீரென கடுமையாக சரிந்து 17314 புள்ளிகளாக குறைந்தது. பிப்ரவரி மாதத்துக்குப் பிறகு சந்தை இவ்வளவு பெரிய வீழ்ச்சியைச் சந்தித்தது இப்போதுதான். எனினும், அடுத்த பத்து வர்த்தக தினங்களுக்குள் சென்செக்ஸ் 1500 புள்ளிகளுக்கு மேல் ஏறியது.

இந்த திடீர் ஏற்றத்துக்கு என்ன காரணம்? சந்தை இனி எந்த திசையில் செல்லும்? முதலீட்டாளர்கள் தங்களை எப்படி தயார் செய்து கொள்ள வேண்டும்? என்கிற முக்கியமான கேள்விகளை பங்குச் சந்தை ஆலோசகரும் ரிலையபிள் ஸ்டாக்ஸ்-ன் இயக்குநருமான ஸ்ரீராமிடம் கேட்டோம்.

''எனது கணிப்பின்படி, அடுத்த ஐந்து ஆண்டுகளுக்கு இந்திய சந்தை ஏறுமுகத்தில்தான் இருக்கும். சரிவு என்றால் அது 2016-ம் ஆண்டுக்குப் பிறகுதான்!'' என்று எடுத்த எடுப்பிலேயே இனிப்பான செய்தியைச் சொன்னவர், அது பற்றி விளக்கமாகப் பேச ஆரம்பித்தார்.

''ஏற்றம் இருக்கும் என்று சொன்னாலும், நடுவில் இறங்கவே இறங்காதா என வாசகர்கள் கேட்கலாம். நான் சொன்னதன் அர்த்தம், சந்தை ஒரே மூச்சாக மேலே செல்லும் என்பதல்ல. நீண்ட கால அடிப்படையில் சந்தை ஏறுமுகமாகவே இருக்க வாய்ப்புகள் அதிகம். நாம் மலை ஏறுவது போலதான் சந்தையின் ஏற்றமும் இருக்கும். நாம் மலையேறும்போது கொஞ்ச தூரம் ஏறுவோம். பிறகு கொஞ்ச நேரம் இளைப்பாறுவோம், பிறகு கொஞ்சம் தண்ணீர் குடிப்போம் அல்லது சாப்பிடுவோம். இப்படி நம்மை பலப்படுத்திக் கொண்டு மீண்டும் மலையேறுவோம். இதுபோலத்தான் சந்தையும்.

2009-ம் ஆண்டு மார்ச் மாதம் உயர ஆரம்பித்த சந்தை, 2009-ம் ஆண்டு முழுவதும் உயர்ந்தது. 2010-ம் ஆண்டு ஆரம்பத்தில் இருந்து தன்னை பலப்படுத்திக் கொண்டே வந்த சந்தை, 2010-ம் ஆண்டு ஜூனில் உயரத் தொடங்கி நவம்பர் வரை உயர்ந்தது. அதிலிருந்து இப்போதுவரை தன்னை மீண்டும் பலப்படுத்திக் கொண்ட சந்தை, ஜூலை மாத இறுதியிலிருந்து மீண்டும் மேலே செல்ல அதிக அளவில் வாய்ப்புகள் இருக்கிறது.

இப்போதைக்கு முதலீடு செய்ய நினைப்பவர்கள் தாராளமாக முதலீடு செய்யலாம். இருந்தாலும் 5450 என்ற நிஃப்டி புள்ளிகளில் ஸ்டாப்லாஸ் வைத்துக் கொள்வது நல்லது. இதை உடைத்துக் கொண்டு கீழே சென்றால் 5177 என்ற நிஃப்டி புள்ளிகளில் ஸ்டாப்லாஸ் வைத்துக் கொள்ளலாம். இந்த நிலையையும் உடைத்துக் கொண்டு கீழே செல்லும் பட்சத்தில் சந்தை மிக வேகமாக கீழே செல்லும். அந்த வீழ்ச்சி எவ்வளவு தூரம் இருக்கும் என்று சொல்ல முடியாது. காரணம், இந்த 5100 முதல் 5200 புள்ளிகளில்தான் அதிகமாக வால்யூம் நடந்திருக்கிறது. கடந்த சில மாதங்களில் இரண்டுமுறை 5200 என்ற நிலைக்கு அருகில் வந்தாலும் அதைத் தாண்டி சந்தையால் கீழே செல்ல முடியவில்லை.

அதனால் 5177 என்பது மிக முக்கியமான சப்போர்ட் நிலை. இதை உடைத்துக் கொண்டு கீழே சென்றால் அந்த வீழ்ச்சி மிக வேகமாக இருக்கும். ஆனால், இந்த நிலையை உடைத்துக் கொண்டு கீழே செல்வது கடினம். ஒருவேளை உடைத்துக் கொண்டும் போகும் பட்சத்தில் அந்த சந்தர்ப்பத்தைப் பயன்படுத்தி முதலீடு செய்வதுதான் புத்திசாலித்தனம்.

ஆனால், சில அனலிஸ்ட்கள் சொல்லும் 'கேப் தியரி’யின்படி (நிணீஜீ ஜிலீமீஷீக்ஷீஹ்), இன்னொரு சரிவு வரும் என்கிறார்கள். அதற்கான காரணமாக அவர்கள் சொல்வது, 2008-ம் ஆண்டு வீழ்ந்த சந்தை, 2009-ம் ஆண்டு நடந்த தேர்தல் முடிவுகளின் தாக்கத்தால் உடனடியாக மேலே எழுந்தது. அதாவது, 3685 புள்ளிகளில் இருந்து 4700 புள்ளிகள் வரை சென்றது. மீண்டும் சரிந்து ஜூலை 23-ம் தேதி 3905 புள்ளிகள் வரை வந்தது. மீதமுள்ள புள்ளிகளுக்கான 'இடைவெளி’ மீண்டும் உருவாகும் என்பதே (பார்க்க சார்ட்!) அவர்களின் கணிப்பு.

இந்த தியரிபடி சந்தை சரிய வேண்டுமெனில், அது இரண்டு ஆண்டுகளுக்கு முன்பே நடந்து முடிந்திருக்க வேண்டும். இப்போது அந்த மாதிரி நடக்கும் என நான் நினைக்கவில்லை. எனவே, சந்தை பெரிய அளவில் சரிய வாய்ப்பில்லை.''

இப்படி நம்பிக்கையோடு சொன்னவரிடம், ''வரும் ஆண்டுகளில் நம் பங்குச் சந்தை எப்படி இருக்கும்?'' என்று கேட்டோம்.

''இதுவரை சந்தை பலமுறை உச்சங்களைத் தொட்டிருக்கிறது. 1984, 1992, 2000, 2008 ஆகிய ஆண்டுகளில் எல்லாம் சந்தை புதிய உச்சத்தைத் தொட்டது. அப்படி பார்க்கும்போது அடுத்த உச்சம் 2016-ம் ஆண்டாக இருக்கும். இதை வைத்து சந்தை ஏறும் என்று நான் கூறவில்லை. தற்போதைய சந்தையின் நிலைமையை வைத்தே சொல்கிறேன். நான் ஏற்கெனவே சொன்னதுபோல சந்தை இப்போது தன்னை நிலைநிறுத்திக் கொள்வதற்கான (கன்ஸாலிடேட்) முயற்சிகளைச் செய்கிறது. அதாவது, தன்னை பலப்படுத்திக் கொண்டு வருகிறது.

2001-ம் ஆண்டு வர்த்தக மைய கட்டடங்களைத் தாக்கியபோதுதான் சந்தை பலத்த சரிவை சந்தித்தது. அதன்பிறகு இரண்டு ஆண்டுகள், அதாவது 2002 மற்றும் 2003-ம் ஆண்டு, சந்தை பக்கவாட்டு நிலையிலேயே வர்த்தகமானது. இரண்டு ஆண்டுகள் தன்னை பலப்படுத்திக் கொண்ட பிறகு 2004-ம் ஆண்டு உயர ஆரம்பித்த சந்தை 2005, 2006, 2007 ஆகிய மூன்று ஆண்டுகளிலும் உயர்ந்து, 2008-ம் ஆண்டு புதிய உச்சத்தை அடைந்தது. 2002, 2003-ம் ஆண்டுகளில் சந்தை எப்படி பலப்படுத்திக் கொண்டதோ, அதே மாதிரி இப்போதும் செய்து வருகிறது. கொஞ்சம் கொஞ்சமாக தன்னை தயார்படுத்திக் கொண்ட பிறகு 2013, 2014, 2015-ம் ஆண்டுகளில் உயர்ந்து 2016-ம் ஆண்டு புதிய உச்சத்தைத் தொடும். அவ்வப்போது சந்தை இறங்கினாலும் அது தன்னை தயார்படுத்திக் கொள்வதற்காகவே இருக்கும்.

தற்போதைய நிலையில் சந்தை 5900 புள்ளிகளைத் தாண்டிச் செல்லும்பட்சத்தில், அதிலிருந்து நிஃப்டி 1000 புள்ளிகள் வரை உயர வாய்ப்பிருக்கிறது. இந்த வாய்ப்பை முதலீட்டாளர்கள் தங்களுக்கு சாதகமாகப் பயன்படுத்திக் கொள்ளலாம்'' என்றார்.

''2016-ம் ஆண்டு சென்செக்ஸ் எத்தனை புள்ளிகளாக இருக்கும்?'' என்று கேட்டோம். பலமாகச் சிரித்தவர், ''என்னைப் பொருத்தவரை, சந்தை இப்போதிருக்கும் நிலையிலிருந்து இரண்டு மடங்கு உயர வாய்ப்புள்ளதாகவே நினைக்கிறேன். 2016-ம் ஆண்டு நிஃப்டி 10000 முதல் 12000 புள்ளிகளுக்கு மேலேயும், சென்செக்ஸ் 45000 புள்ளிகளுக்கு மேலேயும் செல்ல வாய்ப்பிருக்கிறது'' என்றார்.

சந்தை அடுத்த ஏற்றத்துக்கு தயாராவதை நிபுணரே புள்ளி விவரங்களோடு தெள்ளத் தெளிவாக சொல்லிவிட்டார். இந்த சமயத்தில் நீண்ட கால அடிப்படையில் நல்ல அடிப்படை உள்ள பங்குகளை பொறுக்கி எடுத்து, அதில் கொஞ்சம் கொஞ்சமாக முதலீடு செய்தால், 2006, 07 ஆண்டுகளில் நாம் டபுள், டிரிபிள் மடங்கு லாபம் பார்த்த மாதிரி, இனியும் பார்க்கலாம்.

இந்த லாபத்தை ருசிக்க நமக்குத் தேவை கொஞ்சம் பொறுமை, நிறைய நம்பிக்கை!

நம்பிக்கையோடு சந்தையை அணுகுவோம்! மீண்டும் ஒரு நல்ல அறுவடைக்குத் தயாராவோம்!

SSCaddict

July 11th, 2011, 08:27 PM

sensex will reach 1,00,000 but no one knows when, the great Jhunjunwala said this himself.

dineshderick

July 13th, 2011, 10:55 AM

Chennai prospects will buy when you teach them how to buy from you. Otherwise, it is a waste of time, money and frustration.

Many SMEs are in a saturated growth phase for mainly one reason - first generation businesses owners and family run businesses having traditional way of promoting and advertising their products to existing or may be newer potential customers.

As a business owner, one must acquire new and diverse methods to make effective use of various marketing tools available. It is not that the tools are ineffective or the people do not respond. What seems to be missing is that owners lack marketing skills. Has SMS marketing been effective? SMS marketing is invariable considered as junk messages. Yet some many companies try out SMS, almost on a ‘bind fail’ basis. The same is true with email marketing, flyers and other direct marketing approaches. Clarity in target audience and creating the right message are the most common issues.

You might consider making one of your colleagues do the job for you but hiring a full time consultant or contracting a consulting marketer is better option. Invest in marketing, not spend. It will get the content right and pinpoint the kind of prospects you should go after.

Chennai business historically lags competitiveness and has a huge demand gap in domestic market, which indicates communication barrier not clearly understood between the business and the customers. Look into consultative marketing, as a new approach for SME’s in Chennai is very essential of building long-term relationship. This does not mean you spend time educating each prospect. Targeted direct marketing material such as How-to, Q&A and storytelling will work best.

Most of times SMEs lose their own focus if business owners do not think from a customer perspective; Owners need to know difference between the traditional teaching of business management, finance and actual business at hand. Think of the lifetime value of the customer than transaction size.

Look around Chennai – entrepreneurs are running around with no clarity in meetings, prospects or value they provide. Business education is no substitute to real business. The 40-something entrepreneurs are using older techniques to reach target markets. Get a grip on customer response mechanism first.

TShyam

July 18th, 2011, 06:30 PM

Gold breached $1600/ounce (Rs. 23300/10 grams) and is on a roll!!

krishnaswamy

July 18th, 2011, 06:36 PM

Friends,
Where does TN stands on UID project? has it started rolling?
I strongly Feel that UID should first link to Voter ID, Pan Card, Passport, Driving license
and most importantly Ration Cards

jaish

July 19th, 2011, 09:39 AM

If demand and supply decides the commodity prices then gold price is raising on account of Eurozone dept crisis. IMO, in Capitalism only greed decides the price of any commodity. I dont such a instability in anything in the life today dont pronounce good for future life. Easy money would surely reduce the productivity.

kongutamizhan

August 5th, 2011, 10:28 PM

Gold continues (http://www.monex.com/liveprices) its golden run. In record high at $1662 an oz

kongutamizhan

August 8th, 2011, 10:04 PM

krishnaswamy

August 9th, 2011, 05:14 AM

With all the beatings that market is taking my personal opinion is to start increasing investments into bluechips and mutual funds.

Is this a good time to sell 10% of gold portfolio and get into stocks? I am leaning more towards this idea. My logic is usual one sell high, buy low. (Gold is at high, stocks are low).

Just thinking out loud here.
+100....
evalavu kilo thanga biscuit vachurukeenga?
we had a interesting discussion today..
we can take upto 5 kg(?) gold to india without any custom duty.:lol:

TShyam

August 9th, 2011, 12:36 PM

Markets are not going to go up in a hurry. Its gonna drift lower for the rest of this year (to maybe 4300-4400 levels). Take your time accumulating stocks.

kongutamizhan

August 9th, 2011, 03:27 PM

Markets are not going to go up in a hurry. Its gonna drift lower for the rest of this year (to maybe 4300-4400 levels). Take your time accumulating stocks.

People say that DOW might get into 3000's by end of 2012 (end of world? :lol:). As much as I think tradesmartuniversity.com guy as crazy his calls are accurate off-late.

Got to wait for the dirt to settle down a bit for clear visibility

TShyam

August 9th, 2011, 05:35 PM

People say that DOW might get into 3000's by end of 2012 (end of world? :lol:). As much as I think tradesmartuniversity.com guy as crazy his calls are accurate off-late.

Got to wait for the dirt to settle down a bit for clear visibility

lol i meant nifty

spidermanusa

August 19th, 2011, 06:21 PM

KT I give it to you. I said gold was not a good investment. It is now at $1880/ounce. அதாவது ஒரு பவுணுக்கு ரூபாய் 23,800. அடேங்கப்பா! ஆள வுடுங்க

kongutamizhan

August 19th, 2011, 06:40 PM

^^ And now, it might not be a good investment :lol:

I stopped investing in gold. Adding to MF's

kongutamizhan

August 30th, 2011, 03:35 AM

SEBI regulations and equity funds

Source (http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/article2409371.ece?homepage=true)

If equity fund returns improve, retail investors may automatically increase allocations to them, without prodding from the regulator.

Market regulator SEBI is quite right to encourage retail investors to take the mutual fund route to the stock market. With wild market swings and the many external risks to corporate performance, stock selection today is a virtual minefield for investors who don't have professional help. However, whether retail investors can be wooed back to equity funds by the simple expedient of bringing back distributor incentives is open to question. The flat transaction fee of Rs 100-150 per subscription proposed by SEBI as an upfront commission on mutual funds may, in any case, do little to entice distributors back to the fold. Though well-intentioned, SEBI's August 2009 ban on entry loads for mutual fund investments caused quite an upheaval for investors. Larger distribution houses and wealth managers have moved affluent clients to a fee-based model since then. But small investors taking their first steps into equities through mutual funds have been left to deal with indifferent intermediaries and deteriorating service levels. This is because many smaller distributors stopped selling mutual funds and migrated to other financial products offering more lucrative commissions.

It appears highly unlikely that these agents will take up marketing of mutual funds just for an upfront transaction charge of Rs 100 or Rs 150 (proposed on all investments above Rs 10,000 for existing and new mutual fund investors respectively). After all, products such as unit-linked insurance plans (ULIPs),[With so much options and awareness I am surprised that people still buy unit linked plans] small savings schemes and even bonds still offer much higher incentives, ranging from 0.5 per cent to 2 per cent of the investment value. Selling more products to a few wealthy clients is a far easier proposition in today's uncertain market, than persuading new investors to try out equities. If SEBI is keen to ensure that distributors sell mutual funds on the product's merits, the only solution is to re-initiate the dialogue with other regulators to move other market-linked products such as ULIPs to a similar incentive structure.

However, lack of access is only part of the reason why retail investors have little appetite for equity mutual funds. A bigger problem relates to their unwillingness to take on risk after the gut-wrenching ride that stocks have been on over the past three years. Retail investors who poured big money into equity mutual funds at the end of 2007 are yet to reap significant returns from those levels. Despite this, though, there has been a gradual recovery in gross inflows into equity funds from their 2009 lows and an increasing proportion of systematic monthly investments (now about a fourth of inflows). These are positive signs. They show that if equity fund returns improve, retail investors may automatically increase their allocations to them, without much prodding from the regulator.

karthikarthik

September 7th, 2011, 06:20 PM

பணக்காரர் ஆக பாபிலோன் சொன்ன 7 டிப்ஸ்! Tweet. டிஸ்கி : அது நடிகை பாபிலோனா அல்ல, பாபிலோன் நாடு..நன்றாகப் படிக்கவும். சிறுவயதில் பள்ளிப்பாடத்தில் உலகின் ஏழு ...

http://sengovi.blogspot.com/2011/09/7.html

Good article..

kongutamizhan

September 12th, 2011, 05:38 PM

Industrial growth slumps (http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/article2446531.ece?homepage=true) in India

Markets stumbling across the world on economic fears. Means more short run up-north for Gold. Individual investors, keep money in reserve to pounce on an opportunity.

TShyam

September 13th, 2011, 02:17 AM

Nifty below 5000. Started investing in stocks. Waiting for sub 4000 levels slurp. If and when it happens, that would be a very good time to invest.

Does anyone know how to buy government sovereign bonds?? Seems it is a very good time to buy those.

wlbkng

September 15th, 2011, 07:57 AM

Some nice information in Arattai Arangam thread. Not to be lost as junk.

Guys, can anyone tell me the difference between a bond market and a equity market??

Murlee,

'Bonds' are issued by Govts for 10,15,20 years to mobilise funds for a cause.(like Infrastructure bond,tax free bond,TNEB 2025 bond) for a fixed interest. Most will be bought by Banks,Mutual funds etc to cushion their investment portfolio for an assured return.

These bonds are traded in Money market. Deals done between Bond holders thro; Brokers. They make money on yield variance. There are RBI requirements for a financial institution to hold a fixed percentage of their funds in Govt. securities. considered as very safe .

Equity ofcourse is 'shares' issued by any Public limited Company to any investor and are freely traded in Stock Exchanges. This is considerd as high risk investment.

To add to Leo's points

- In bond market you are trading debt. You will get the sum assured only if you keep collecting coupons and hold till maturity. If you buy and sell bonds like equities then you are exposed to the risk of varying interest rates

- Other than stocks equity markets also comprises of its derivatives like options and futures

Considering the worth of government bonds today (especially US), an ideal gift for your kids / grand-kids / nephews / nieces would be to get it for them. They might be worth lot of money by the time they grow up.

Bonds also have derivatives including interest rate derivatives, swaps. In fact the world economy was brought down amongst many other factors by a bond derivative (CDS) which was like buying an insurance against the bond.

But then you also expose yourself to currency fluctuation and fall in prices as and when the interest rate rise which surely will to catch up with inflation.

kongutamizhan

November 19th, 2011, 06:49 AM

Falling Rupee, high interest rates bring home a flurry of Dollars

NEW DELHI: The combination of high interest rates and a sharply dropping rupee may be a crushing burden for domestic industry, but there is one section that is not complaining. Indians working overseas are sending back record amount of dollars to take advantage of the strong greenback and lucrative returns offered by banks in India, thus providing a timely bonanza for the government battling a rising current account deficit.

In September alone, a record $565 million flowed into so-called non-resident (ordinary), or NRO, accounts - the highest in at least 30 months. In August, too, the inflows were rapid, totalling nearly half-a-billion dollars.

Dollars flowing into NRO accounts are important because they are denominated in rupees, meaning that the foreign currency stays in the country and all withdrawals can only be in rupees. Only up to $1 million can be repatriated every year.

The rupee has depreciated almost 17% since August, dropping from about 44 to a dollar to 51.33 on November 18 over concerns about worsening current account deficit.

Trend to Continue

The possibility of capital flows drying up because of the global economic turmoil has added to worries. Besides, banks are now offering 8-10% returns on NRO deposits, making a compelling case for Indians working overseas to send dollars home instead of parking them in low-return deposits overseas.

The trend of rising NRO inflows has continued into October and November and this will persist as the interest rate differential between developed nations and India is at an all-time high, bankers said. "Inflows into the NRO accounts have jumped on account of the depreciating rupee and higher interest rates," said MD Mallya, chairman and managing director of Bank of Baroda.

At the end of September, NRO deposits accounted for $10.7 billion of the nearly $50 billion in deposits from non-resident Indians. NRE accounts with no limits on repatriation had $23.5 billion and foreign-currency deposit accounts the rest.

"The increase in inflows into NRO accounts could help finance the current account deficit for the year," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, CARE ratings. Because of a sharp drop in exports growth, India's trade deficit has widened to nearly $20 billion, and is expected to worsen current account deficit to 3% of GDP from 2.6% of GDP last year.

India had already received almost $2 billion in NRO accounts in the first six months of the current year against $2.2 billion in the whole of last fiscal. Interest rates on NRO accounts float in line with what banks offer to their domestic depositors. The increase in remittance is also because of the sustained high inflation. "Sustained high inflation and the onset of the festival season have also resulted in increased inflows from NRIs," said Virat Diwanji, head of branch banking at Kotak Mahindra Bank.

While central banks in most countries have been cutting rates to revive collapsing growth, the RBI has been tightening money supply to rein in inflation, which has been consistently over 9% for nearly a year. In most of the developed world, policy rates are close to zero. The RBI has increased key rates by 13 times over the last 20 months, increasing deposit rates for individuals. "We have also experienced increase in inflows into NRO accounts and expect the trend to continue," said Diwanji.

kongutamizhan

November 19th, 2011, 06:52 AM

^^ Good for NRIs and headache for the government

http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/WorldEconomy/Falling-rupee-rising-woes/Article1-771024.aspx

Planning to study abroad? Or maybe considering an overseas holiday? There might be worries ahead for you. Your budget just ran up.
Also, expect your computers and imported mobile phones to become costlier. The rupee closed at 51.33 to a US dollar on Friday, crossing the
51-rupee threshold, and seems going towards the all-time low of 52.17 it touched in March 2009. How budgets may wobble

In simple terms the foreign currency you need to buy the same goods or services has gone up in rupee terms - be it a holiday, a university course or an imported item.

It is good for exporters, though. But with a catch.

"We do not know how currency markets function. Volatility doesn't help us because we do not know how to hedge on a daily basis," said a Tamil Nadu based leather goods manufacturer and exporter. Currency market 101

As the head of a company that exports footwear, he is a small businessman with a big worry - the cost of his raw materials like leather and shoe uppers are rising rapidly changing every day, with the rupee sliding.

Economists expect the rupee to fall further.

The exchange rate of a currency, like most commodities, is determined by the laws of demand and supply. Foreign institutional investors are cashing out and diving into safer investment bets such as US government bonds. This is making dollars scarce and reducing demand for rupees.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can intervene and prop up the rupee by selling dollars in the market, but economists do not expect the central bank to manage the rupee's rate actively, unless it swings violently.

"Given recent indications, I don't think the RBI will actively intervene to arrest the rupee's fall, unless there is extreme volatility in the currency market," said NR Bhanumurthy, economist at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP).

Exporters may gain from the weaker rupee but their orders may be shrinking or growth slowing. India's exports growth moderated to 10.8% in October. Orders from countries in Europe, India's largest export market show signs of drying out.

For importers, the loss equation is clear: a falling rupee means they have to pay more in rupee terms to buy the same products - capital goods for heavy industry and intermediate products, and crude oil.

A persistently falling rupee widens oil firms' crude import bill and may force them to raise retail prices of petroleum products.

For the government trying to contain inflation close to double-digit figures, a higher oil import bill will raise the spectre of high inflation again.

Costlier transport fuel will knock up prices of most goods and stoke inflation, which may force the RBI to raise interest rates even further to tame prices. Or at least, hold back on a planned cut in rates.

Clearly, there is a million-dollar headache ahead for the government.

N.kumar

November 19th, 2011, 11:16 AM

I am all for appreciating the rupee. people only look through export lobby and so on, but it benefits the country in long run and overall when it is allowed to appreciate.

even if it comes near 42, there are whole lot of lobbies which make hell lot of noise.

kongutamizhan

November 21st, 2011, 10:14 PM

Cross posting from cbe discussions. Check this and give your feedback to the government!! This affects your individual investment / personal finance.

Guideline values

What a junk website it is. Why don't they make it more user friendly for us to search. Also they just have the main streets listed. Good start but not complete..

http://www.tnreginet.net/DraftGuideline2011/gvaluemainpage2011.asp

PS> What is the GUIDELINE VALUE TO BE FIXED (IN METRIC) column about?

^^ Source - Vikatan (http://www.vikatan.com/article.php?mid=6&sid=352&aid=12940)

As far as I looked at it (for few areas) I don't see huge discripancies. I think it reflects reality (market rate) for most part and one should applaud the government for job well done. Only thing that irks is the website experience :). Also since they just have the main roads listed and not interiors we can only go by approximation.

Value might be overpriced (as it is in rest of the state for real-estate if you take the facilities in to consideration). But IMO it definitely reflects market price.

ரியல் எஸ்டேட்... பூதம் கிளப்பும் புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ!

கவர் ஸ்டோரி
ஒரு சிலர் செய்யும் தவறுகளால்
எல்லோருக்கும் பாதிப்பு ஏற்படுகிறது!

இதோ, அதோ என கடந்த சில மாதங்களாகவே தள்ளிப் போடப்பட்டு வந்த இடம் மற்றும் மனைகளுக்கான வழிகாட்டுதல் மதிப்புக்கான வரைவு (Guideline Draft) ஒருவழியாக வெளியாகி விட்டது. இந்த புதிய வழிகாட்டுதல் மதிப்பை பார்த்த பலருக்கும் ஆயிரம் வாட்ஸ் அதிர்ச்சி. ஏற்கெனவே இருந்த வழிகாட்டுதல் மதிப்பைவிட நான்கைந்து மடங்கு உயர்த்தப்பட்டு இருக்கும் நிலையில், அது அப்படியே நடைமுறைக்கு வந்தால் தமிழகம் முழுக்க ரியல் எஸ்டேட் தொழிலே படுத்துவிடும். புதிதாக இடம் வாங்குகிறவர்கள் பத்திரச் செலவுக்கே படாதபாடுபட வேண்டியதாகிவிடும் என்கிற பூதம் கிளம்பி இருக்கிறது.

தமிழக அரசின் பத்திரப் பதிவுதுறை மாநிலம் முழுக்க உள்ள சுமார் ஒரு கோடி சர்வே எண்கள், ஒரு கோடியே பதினேழு லட்சம் தெருக்கள் ஆகியவற்றுக்குப் புதிய கைடுலைன் வேல்யூவை நிர்ணயித்து, பொதுமக்கள் பார்வைக்கு சில நாட்களுக்கு முன்பு வெளியிட்டது. இதுகுறித்து தாம்பரம் சார் பதிவாளர் திருமலையிடம் பேசினோம்.

''பொதுமக்கள் பலரும் ஆர்வத்துடன் வந்து இந்த புதிய வரைவு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பை பார்க்கிறார்கள். அவர்கள் வசிக்கும் ஏரியாவில் இடம் அல்லது மனையின் மதிப்புக்கு இணையாக அரசின் புதிய வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு இருந்தால் எதுவும் சொல்லாமல் போய்விடுகிறார்கள்.

ஆனால், அதிகமாக இருப்பதாகக் கருதினால், அதைக் குறைக்கச் சொல்லி மனு கொடுக்கிறார்கள். மனுவில் அவர்கள் குறிப்பிடும் காரணங்கள் நியாயமாக இருக்கும் பட்சத்தில் அதை அரசுக்கு அனுப்பி, வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பை குறைக்க நடவடிக்கை எடுக்கிறோம்'' என்றார்.

இந்த வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பைத் திருத்தம் செய்ய பொதுமக்களுக்கு இரு முறை வாய்ப்பு அளிக்கப்படுகிறது. முதல் வரைவு வழிகாட்டி புத்தகம் சார் பதிவாளர் அலுவலகத்தில் 15 நாட்கள் பொதுமக்கள் பார்வைக்கு வைக்கப்பட்டு, அவர்கள் சொல்லும் திருத்தம் நியாயமாக இருக்கும் பட்சத்தில் மதிப்பு மாற்றப்படுகிறது.

இப்படி மாற்றப்பட்ட இரண்டாவது வரைவு வழிகாட்டி புத்தகமும் அடுத்த 15 நாட்களுக்கு மக்கள் பார்வைக்கு வைக்கப்படுகிறது. இதன் மீதும் பொதுமக்கள் சொல்லும் கருத்துக்களில் சரியானவற்றை மட்டும் எடுத்துக் கொண்டு, இறுதி வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு வெளியிடப்படும்.

ஆனால், இதில் பெரிய பிரச்னை என்னவென்றால், இந்த வரைவு வழிகாட்டுதல் புத்தகம் சார் பதிவாளர் அலுவலகத்தில் பொதுமக்கள் பார்வைக்கு வைக்கப்படுகிற விஷயம் பலருக்கும் தெரிவதில்லை. தவிர, ஒவ்வொரு மாவட்டத்திலும் வெவ்வேறு தேதிகளில் வைக்கப்படுவது இன்னொரு அசௌகரியம். எனவே, இதுகுறித்த செய்தியை செய்தித்தாள்களிலும் உள்ளூர் டிவியிலும் விளம்பரம் செய்து தெரிவிக்க வேண்டும்.

ஆனால், அரசாங்கமோ தனது இணையதளத்தில் (http://www.tnreginet.net:80/DraftGuideline2011/gvaluemainpage2011.asp) மட்டும் வெளியிட்டிருக்கிறது. இந்த இணையதளத்தைப் பார்த்தும் தங்கள் பகுதியின் வழிகாட்டுதல் சரியாக இருக்கிறதா என்பதைக் கண்டறிந்து, அதிகமாக இருப்பின் அதை குறைக்கச் சொல்லலாம்.

''ஒரு பகுதிக்குத் தவறுதலாக மதிப்பு மிக அதிகமாக நிர்ணயம் செய்யப்பட்டு இருந்தால், அதனால் பாதிக்கப்படப் போவது அந்தப் பகுதி மக்கள்தான். உதாரணத்துக்கு, ஒரு இடத்தின் மதிப்பு சதுர அடிக்கு 500 ரூபாயாக நிர்ணயிக்கப்பட்டிருக்கிறது. ஆனால், உள்கட்டமைப்பு வசதி எதுவும் இல்லாததால் அந்த இடத்தின் ஒரிஜினல் விலை ஒரு சதுர அடிக்கு 200 ரூபாய்தான். 1,000 ச.அடி மனை அல்லது இடம் வாங்குகிறீர்கள் என்றால் 2 லட்சம் ரூபாய் ஆகும். இதில் 9% பத்திரச் செலவு மட்டும் 18,000 ரூபாய் ஆகிவிடும்.

ஆனால், அரசு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு 500 ரூபாய் என்கிறபோது, பத்திரச் செலவு மட்டும் 45,000 ரூபாய் ஆகும். அதாவது, இடத்தின் ஒரிஜினல் மதிப்பே 2 லட்ச ரூபாய்தான். ஆனால், பத்திரத்திற்கு மட்டும் 45 ஆயிரத்திற்குமேல் கொடுக்க வேண்டும் என்றால் யார்தான் இனி சொத்துபத்துகளை வாங்குவார்கள்? இடத்தை விற்பவர் விலையைக் கணிசமாக குறைத்துக் கொடுத்தால் மட்டுமே இனி இடத்தை வாங்குவார்கள். அப்படி இல்லை எனில் அந்த இடத்தை விற்க முடியாத நிலையே ஏற்படும்.

எனவே, அரசு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு இறுதி ஆவதற்குள் அவரவர் பகுதிகளின் சர்வே எண் அல்லது தெருவுக்கு என்ன மதிப்பு நிர்ணயமாகி இருக்கிறது என்பதைப் பார்த்து, அதைச் சரி செய்ய வேண்டியது மக்களின் கடமை'' என்கிறார், ரியல் எஸ்டேட்டில் நல்ல லாபம் பார்த்த அனுபவசாலி ஒருவர்.

சென்னையை அடுத்த தாம்பரம் சி.டி.ஓ. காலனியைச் சேர்ந்த எஸ்.குருமூர்த்தி, ''எங்கள் ஏரியாவில் மனைக்கு கைடுலைன் வேல்யூ சதுர அடிக்கு 600 ரூபாயா இருக்கு. இதை 2,400 ரூபாயாக அதிகரிச்சிருக்காக.. கிட்டத்தட்ட நாலு மடங்கு அதிகமாகியிருக்கு. மேலும், எங்க ஏரியாவில் சாலை வசதி, தெரு விளக்கு வசதி போதிய அளவுக்கு இல்லை. அதனால் இந்த மதிப்பு அதிகம், இதைக் குறைக்க வேண்டும் என்று சொல்லி அரசுக்கு மனு கொடுக்கப் போகிறேன்'' என்றார்.

பொதுவாகவே புதிய வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு குறைந்தபட்சம் நான்கு மடங்கு முதல் அதிகபட்சமாக 12 மடங்கு வரை அதிகரிக்கப்பட்டிருக்கிறது. உதாரணமாக, தாம்பரம் முடிச்சூர் சாலையில் 350 ரூபாயாக இருந்த மனையின் வழிகாட்டுதல் மதிப்பு, 3,500 ரூபாயாக உயர்ந்திருக்கிறது.

அரசு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு மிகவும் அதிகரிக்கப்பட்டிருப்பதால் ஏற்படும் பாதிப்பு குறித்து, ஆவண எழுத்தர் கே.நவ்லின் ஜெயபாலனுடன் பேசினோம்.

''வேல்யூவை இப்படி ஒரேயடியாக அதிகரித்திருப்பது நடுத்தர மக்களை மிகவும் பாதிக்கும். ஏழைகள் புறம்போக்கு நிலங்களைத் தேடி அலைய வேண்டிய கட்டாயம்தான் ஏற்படும். ஒரு இடத்தில் பத்து வருஷத்துக்கு மேல் வீடு கட்டி அனுபவித்து வந்தால், பட்டா கொடுத்து விடுவார்கள். தவிர, சாதாரண இடத்தின் விலையில் பாதிதான் புறம்போக்கு இடத்தின் விலை என்கிறபோது மக்கள் அதைத்தானே நாடிப் போவார்கள்?''

சென்னையின் முன்னணி பில்டர் ஒருவருடன் பேசியபோது, ''இதுபற்றி மக்கள் கருத்து கேட்பது எல்லாம் வெறும் கண் துடைப்புதான். கைடுலைன் வேல்யூ சரியாக இல்லாதபோது அதை திருத்தச் சொல்லி மக்கள் சொன்னால் பெரும்பாலும் அது நிறைவேறுவதில்லை. அதிகாரிகள் ஏற்கெனவே செய்த முடிவைத்தான் மீண்டும் கொண்டு வருகிறார்கள்'' என்று தன் குமுறலைக் கொட்டினார்.

மதிப்பை மாற்றி அமைப்பது தொடர்பாக தமிழகம் முழுக்க சுற்றுப் பயணம் மேற்கொண்ட அதிகாரி ஒருவருடன் பேசினோம். ''இப்படி மொத்தமாக வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பை ஏற்றுவதற்கு பதில், வருடா வருடம் 10-15 சதவிகிதம் கூட்டினால் சுமை தெரியாது என்று மக்கள் நினைக்கிறார்கள். நூறுசதவிகித சரியான மதிப்பை நிர்ணயிப்பது என்பது கஷ்டம்தான். தற்போது சந்தை மதிப்புக்கு இணையாக அரசு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பை நிர்ணயிக்க முயற்சித்திருக்கிறோம். சென்னையில் சுமார் 30 பேர் வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு அதிகமாக இருப்பதாக மறுப்பு தெரிவித்து கடிதம் தந்திருக்கிறார்கள். அவர்கள் மறுப்பு நியாயமாக இருந்தால் ஏற்றுக்கொண்டு மதிப்பைக் குறைப்போம்'' என்றார்.

''அரசு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு அதிகரிக்க வீட்டுக் கடன் வாங்குபவர்களும் ஒரு முக்கிய காரணம்'' என்கிறார் விஷயம் தெரிந்த ஒருவர். அதிகமாக வீட்டுக் கடன் வேண்டும் என்பதற்காக அதிக மதிப்பில் மனையை பதிவு செய்துவிடுகிறார்கள். அவர்கள் பதிவு செய்த மதிப்பைவிட அதிக மதிப்பில்தான் பத்திரம் பதிவு செய்ய முடியும் என்பதால், எல்லோருக்கும் பத்திரச் செலவு உயர்ந்து பாதிப்பு ஏற்படுகிறது.

''இனி அந்த பாதிப்பு இருக்காது'' என்றார் பத்திரப் பதிவு துறையின் உயர் அதிகாரி ஒருவர். ''ஒரே ஒரு பத்திரத்தை அதிக மதிப்பில் பதிவு செய்வதாலேயே இனி முத்திரைக் கட்டணத்தை உயர்த்த மாட்டோம். ஒரு சர்வே எண் அல்லது ஒரு குறிப்பிட்ட பகுதியில் குறைந்தபட்சம் ஐந்து பத்திரங்கள் அதிக விலைக்கு பதிந்திருந்தால் மட்டுமே அரசு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பை மாற்றி அமைப்போம்'' என்றார்.

சென்னையின் முன்னணி வழக்கறிஞர் ரகுராமிடம் இதுபற்றி பேசினோம். ''கடந்த நான்கு ஆண்டுகளாக அரசு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு அதிகரிக்கப்படவில்லை என்பதால், இப்போதைய அதிகரிப்பு மிகவும் அதிகம்போல் தோன்றுகிறது. பல இடங்களில் சந்தை மதிப்புக்கு இணையாகத்தான் நிர்ணயம் செய்திருக்கிறார்கள்'' என்றார்.

தமிழ்நாடு பதிவுத் துறை தலைவரும் ஐ.ஏ.எஸ். அதிகாரியு மான தர்மேந்திர பிரதாப் யாதவ்வை சந்தித்தோம்.

''ரியல் எஸ்டேட்டில் கறுப்புப் பணம் நிறைய விளையாடுகிறது. சந்தை மதிப்புக்கு இணையாக அரசு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பை நிர்ணயிக்கும்போது, கறுப்புப் பணப்புழக்கம் குறைவதோடு, அரசுக்கு வருமானமும் அதிகரிக்கும். டிசம்பர் 15-ம் தேதிக்குள் வரைவு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு இறுதி செய்யப்படும். அதன்பிறகு 2012 ஜனவரி மாத வாக்கில் திருத்தப்பட்ட மதிப்பு அமலுக்கு வர வாய்ப்பு இருக்கிறது. இனி ஒவ்வொரு ஆண்டும் அரசு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு அதிகரிக்கப்பட இருக்கிறது'' என்றார்.

kongutamizhan

December 12th, 2011, 09:51 PM

Because of change in guideline values, real estate may not be a lucrative investment anymore. IMO it is a one-sided article. Posting it for our forumers attention.

http://www.vikatan.com/article.php?mid=6&sid=370&aid=13798&uid=269&

அதிர்ந்து போய்க் கிடக்கிறார்கள் சொந்தமாக வீடு அல்லது மனை வாங்கலாம் என்கிற ஆசையோடு இருந்த அப்பாவி மக்கள். காரணம், தமிழகம் முழுக்க சொத்துகளுக்கான கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ (அரசு வழிகாட்டி மதிப்பு) கூடிய விரைவில் ஐந்து முதல் பத்து மடங்கு உயரப் போகிறது. இதனால் பத்திரச் செலவு மட்டுமே பல லட்சம் ஆகும் என்பதால், வீடு அல்லது மனை வாங்கத்தான் வேண்டுமா என்று யோசிக்க ஆரம்பித்து விட்டார்கள் மக்கள். இந்த பிரச்னையால ரியல் எஸ்டேட் பிஸினஸே சுருண்டுவிடுமோ என பிளாட் விற்பனையாளர்களும் புரோக்கர்களும் கலங்கிப் போயிருக்கிறார்கள்.

''தமிழ்நாடு அரசு 2007-ம் ஆண்டுக்குப் பிறகு இப்போதுதான் சொத்துக்கான கைடு லைன் வேல்யூவை உயர்த்த இருக்கிறது. கடந்த நான்கு ஆண்டுகளில் ரியல் எஸ்டேட் பெரிய அளவில் வளர்ந்ததால், இடத்தின் சந்தை மதிப்புக்கு இணையாக கைடு லைன் மதிப்பையும் உயர்த்த முடிவு செய்தது.

புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ டிராஃப்ட் தயாரானதும் அதை இந்த மாதம் 15-ம் தேதியே அமலுக்கு கொண்டு வர நினைத்தது அரசாங்கம்.

ஆனால், பஸ், பால் கட்டண உயர்வால் மக்கள் அதிருப்தியில் இருப்பதாக அரசுக்கு தகவல் போகவே, புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூவை அமல்படுத்தும் முடிவை ஒரு மாதத்திற்குத் தள்ளி வைத்தது. இந்த ஒத்திவைப்பால் அரசுக்குப் பெரிய நஷ்டமில்லை. காரணம், தமிழ்நாட்டில் மார்கழி மாதத்தில் குறைந்த எண்ணிக்கையிலேயே சொத்து பத்திரப் பதிவு நடக்கும்'' என்றார், சென்னை தாம்பரத்தைச் சேர்ந்த சூரியன் புரமோட்டர்ஸ் அண்ட் டெவலப்பர்ஸ் நிறுவனத்தின் இயக்குநர்களில் ஒருவரான எம்.மணி.

சென்னையின் முன்னணி பில்டர் ஒருவர், ''தமிழக மக்களுக்குப் பொங்கல் பரிசாக தை மாதம் முதல் புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ அமலுக்கு வர வாய்ப்பிருக்கிறது. அதற்கான ஏற்பாடுகள் எக்ஸ்பிரஸ் வேகத்தில் நடந்து வருவதாக தகவல்'' என்று நம் காதில் கிசுகிசுத்தார்.

இது உண்மையா என பத்திரப்பதிவு அலுவலக வட்டாரத்தில் விசாரித்ததில் 'யெஸ்’ என்றுதான் பதில் கிடைத்தது. இந்த தகவல் அரசல்புரசலாக இட விற்பனையாளர்கள் மற்றும் புரோக்கர்கள் மூலமாக மக்களைச் சென்றடைய, கூடுதல் கட்டணத்திற்கு பயந்து, அவசர அவசரமாக பத்திரங்களைப் பதிவு செய்து வருகிறார்கள் மக்கள். இதனால் தமிழகம் முழுக்க அனைத்து சார் பதிவாளர் அலுவலகங்களிலும் திருவிழாக் கூட்டம்தான்! நான்கைந்து வருடங்களுக்கு முன் 'பவர்’ வாங்கி பத்திரம் பதியாமல் இருந்தவர்கள்கூட இப்போது கடனை வாங்கியாவது பத்திரம் பதிந்து வருகிறார்கள்.

'புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூவால் மக்களுக்குப் பாதிப்பு ஏற்படுமா?’ என சென்னை ரியல் எஸ்டேட் ஏஜென்டுகள் சங்கத்தின் செயலாளர் பத்ரேஷ் பி.மேத்தாவிடம் கேட்டோம்.

''பெரிய அளவில் பாதிப்பு ஏற்படும். தமிழக அரசின் புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூவை அறிவியல்பூர்வமாக யோசித்து உயர்த்தாமல், இஷ்டத்துக்கு ஏற்றி இருக்கிறார்கள். உதாரணத்துக்கு, சென்னை பிராட்வே பகுதியில் பிரகாசம் சாலையில் (சாலையின் அகலம் சுமார் 60 அடி) ஒரு சதுர அடி மனையின் கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ தற்போது 5,500 ரூபாய். புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூபடி இது 15,000 ரூபாயாக உயரப் போகிறது. சாலையின் அகலம் 60 அடி என்பதால் இங்கு மனை வாங்கினால் பல அடுக்கு மாடி வீடு கட்ட முடியும். கூடுதல் கட்டுமானப் பரப்பும் (எஃப்.எஸ்.ஐ.) கிடைக்கும்.

ஆனால், இதே ரோட்டுக்கு அருகிலுள்ள மலையப்பன் தெருவில் கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ 3,000 ரூபாயிலிருந்து 12,000 ரூபாயாக உயரப் போகிறது. இந்தத் தெருவின் அகலம் வெறும் 20 அடிதான். சந்தையின் மதிப்பும் 8,500 ரூபாய்தான். அதிக விலை கொடுத்து, அதிகமாக பத்திரப் பதிவு கட்டணம் செலுத்தினாலும் இந்தத் தெருவில் பெரிதாக அடுக்குமாடி குடியிருப்பு கட்ட முடியாது. இதனால் சொத்து வாங்குபவருக்கு பெரிய அளவில் லாபம் இருக்காது.

இதுபோன்ற குளறுபடிகள் புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூவில் அதிகமாக இருக்கிறது. அதை சரி செய்தால் மட்டுமே, மக்கள் கொடுக்கும் விலை மற்றும் பத்திரப் பதிவு கட்டணம் நியாயமானதாக இருக்கும். சாலையின் அகலம் மற்றும் உள்கட்டமைப்பு வசதிகளின் அடிப்படையில் கைடு லைன் மதிப்பை நிர்ணயிப்பதுதான் நியாயம்'' என்றவர், அடுக்குமாடி குடியிருப்புகளை வாங்க நினைக்கும் நடுத்தரவர்க்கத்து மக்கள் எப்படி பாதிக்கப்படுவார்கள் என்பதையும் சுட்டிக் காட்டினார்.

''மனைக்கான பத்திரப் பதிவு கட்டணம் பல மடங்கு அதிகரிக்கும்போது, அது அடுக்குமாடி குடியிருப்புகளின் சதுர அடி விலையிலும் நிச்சயம் அதிகரிக்கத்தான் செய்யும். இது புதிய மற்றும் பழைய அடுக்கு மாடி குடியிருப்பு வாங்குபவர்களை பெரிய அளவில் பாதிக்கும். காரணம், இரண்டிலும் பிரிக்கப்படாத மனை (யூ.டி.எஸ்.) பதிவு செய்ய வேண்டி யிருக்கிறது. பல இடங்களில் தமிழக அரசின் இந்த கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ என்பது சந்தை மதிப்பைவிட மிகவும் அதிகமாக இருப்பதால், பத்திரப் பதிவுக்கே லட்சக்கணக்கான ரூபாய் செலவிட வேண்டியிருக்கும். ஆக மொத்தத்தில், நடுத்தர மக்கள் இனி வீடு வாங்குவது கனவில் மட்டுமே நடக்கும் நிகழ்ச்சியாக மாறிவிடும்!'' என்று பொறிந்து தள்ளினார்.

புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூவால் ரியல் எஸ்டேட் கடுமையான பாதிப்புக்குள்ளாகும். அடுத்த ஒன்றிரண்டு ஆண்டுகளுக்கு ரியல் எஸ்டேட் தொழில் சுத்தமாகச் சுருண்டு படுத்துவிடும் என்றுதான் தமிழகத்தின் பல பகுதிகளைச் சேர்ந்தவர்களும் சொன்னார்கள். உதாரணமாக, மயிலாடுதுறையில் உள்ள ஜீஸஸ் ரியல் எஸ்டேட் நிறுவனத்தின் எஸ்.நெல்சன், ''புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ நடைமுறைக்கு வந்தால், ரியல் எஸ்டேட் தொழிலில் மிகப் பெரிய பாதிப்பு ஏற்படும்.

முன்பு ரெண்டு கிரவுண்டு வாங்கியவர்கள் இனி ஒரு கிரவுண்டே போதும் என்று நினைக்கத் தொடங்குவார்கள். தவணைத் திட்டங்களில் மனை வாங்க பணம் கட்டுபவர்கள், ஜனவரிக்குப் பிறகு புதிய வழிகாட்டி மதிப்புக்குதான் பத்திரம் பதிய வேண்டியிருக்கும். அப்போது பத்திரச் செலவு இரண்டு, மூன்று மடங்கு அதிகரிக்கும். இதனால் ரியல் எஸ்டேட்டில் முதலீடு குறைந்து, தங்கம் போன்ற இதர முதலீடுகளில் பணத்தைப் போடத் தொடங்கி விடுவார்கள்'' என்றார்.

ஆனால், திருநெல்வேலியைச் சேர்ந்த ஜே.பி. ஜெய் லேண்ட் புரமோட்டர்ஸ் நிர்வாக இயக்குநர் ஜெயபாலின் கருத்து வேறு மாதிரியாக இருந்தது. ''சந்தை மதிப்புக்கு பத்திரப் பதிவு செய்பவர்களுக்கு, இந்த புதிய கைடு லைன் மதிப்பால் பெரிய பாதிப்பு இருக்காது. புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ நடைமுறைக்கு வந்த பிறகுதான் ரியல் எஸ்டேட்டில் என்ன மாற்றம் வரும் என்று சொல்ல முடியும். மக்களின் வாங்கும் சக்தி அதிகரிக்கும் பட்சத்தில் பெரிய அளவில் பாதிப்பு இருக்காது. பொதுவாக, கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ அதிகரித்தால் குறுகிய காலத்துக்கு ரியல் எஸ்டேட் தொழிலில் மந்த நிலை காணப்படும். அதன் பிறகு மீண்டும் சுறுசுறுப்பாகிவிடும்'' என்றார் நம்பிக்கையோடு.

கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ உயர்வதால் சொத்தின் விலை உயரும். உதாரணமாக, ஒருவர் 10 லட்ச ரூபாய் மதிப்புள்ள சொத்தை ஒரு லட்ச ரூபாய் பத்திரச் செலவு செய்து பதிகிறார் என்று வைத்துக் கொள்வோம்; புதிய கைடு லைன் வேல்யூபடி பத்திரச் செலவே இரண்டு லட்ச ரூபாய் ஆகிறது எனில், இனிவரும் காலத்தில் அவர் 12 லட்ச ரூபாய்க்கு கீழே அந்த சொத்தை விற்க மாட்டார். வாங்குபவரும் அதிக விலை கொடுக்க தயங்கவே செய்வார். இதனால் மாநிலம் முழுக்க ரியல் எஸ்டேட் பிஸினஸ் படுத்துவிட வாய்ப்பிருக்கிறது என்கிறார்கள் புரோக்கர்கள்.

''அண்மையில்தான் 'பவர்’ பத்திர கட்டணத்தை 50 ரூபாயிலிருந்து 10,000 ரூபாய்க்கு உயர்த்தியது அரசாங்கம். இப்போது கைடு லைன் வேல்யூவையும் உயர்த்தினால் இனி எங்களால் எப்படி ரியல் எஸ்டேட் தொழில் செய்ய முடியும்? ஏற்கெனவே விற்பனை டல்லடிக்கும் சமயத்தில் எங்கள் பாடு இனி திண்டாட்டம்தான்'' என்றார் பெயர் சொல்ல விரும்பாத கோவை புரோக்கர் ஒருவர்.

கைடு லைன் வேல்யூ, சந்தை மதிப்புக்கு இணையாக உயர்த்தப்படுவதால், இனி கறுப்புபணம் உள்ளே வருவது தடுக்கப்படும். இதனால், அரசின் வருமானம் அதிகரிக்கும். ஏற்கெனவே நிதிப் பற்றாக்குறை என்று சொல்லிக் கொண்டிருக்கும் அரசாங்கம் தனது வருமானத்தை உயர்த்திக் கொள்ள கைடு லைன் வேல்யூவை அதிகரிக்கிறது என்றாலும், அரசின் இந்த முயற்சி பொன்முட்டைக்கு ஆசைப்பட்டு வாத்தின் கழுத்தை நெறித்த கதை ஆகிவிடக்கூடாது என்பது தமிழக அரசாங்கத்திற்கு புரிந்தால் சரி.

madurakarenda

December 12th, 2011, 10:02 PM

^^ Yep, looks more biased and it looks like stirring the real estate investors to mutiny against revising the guideline values. These real estate brokers are really pests (I am not telling everyone). We had a plot of land in a prime locality here nearby which was another similar one owned by my cousin. My cousin sold it and the real estate broker asked him my father's number. When my cousin denied, he told like "I will convince them somehow, gimme their number". So, it looked like they are aimed at changing the owners of the lands which will get their pockets filled. Btw, did anybody watch "Neeya naana" last week whose topic was on brokers?

kongutamizhan

December 12th, 2011, 10:24 PM

^^ I did watch that neeya naana episode. Though I found his thoughts leaned towards brokers, I thought Gobi kind of played a reasonable balancing act in this episode.

Two things stood out of that debate are

1) Organizing the broker-service sector. This will change people's mentality of adding value to service. Today we don't consider anything valuable unless we see material on hand.
2) When brokers were blaming the sellers greed, like Gopi said the reality is a seller can at the max sell only one property (which is his/hers), however brokers have the ability to manuplate the price by dealing with multiple properties.

madurakarenda

December 12th, 2011, 10:33 PM

2) When brokers were blaming the sellers greed, like Gopi said the reality is a seller can at the max sell only one property (which is his/hers), however brokers have the ability to manuplate the price by dealing with multiple properties.

But, a normal human's tendency is to doubt a broker. Btw, we (Me and some of my friends hired a room (which was more like a flat of an apartment)), we looked for a room which could house 8 persons in it, we wandered for more than 2 full days in a locality. But, we were not able to get one for our requirement at all on ourselves. But, when we approached a broker for that, he immediately got us a room in the same area where we wandered for the last 2 days. He was a owner of a general stores in that locality but we doubted him, we continued to doubt him till we got the proof for our advance (the stamp paper kind). Generally, grocers and petti kadai owners of a locality serve as brokers of that area for those who are on the look out for houses for rent, lease, etc whilst some do this as their full time job.

kannan infratech

December 12th, 2011, 10:49 PM

There was a meeting last year for all realty brokers of Chennai and they were discussing the proposed rules and regulations by the Govt.

I do not know about the fate of the act / bill.

R2IChennai

December 12th, 2011, 11:07 PM

kongutamizhan

December 12th, 2011, 11:10 PM

Guideline values are ridiculously high in many place (In Salem i saw 9000 rs per sq feeet where the actual market rate is 3500)may have impact on realestate.

Are you sure that you didn't look at the commercial property value? 80-85% of what I checked for CBE region seems to reflect reality. Remaining seems to fall on both sides. There were places where the guideline values were high. At the same time it was too low compared to market rate at areas like NGGO Colony or Thudiyalur (Even PN palayam and Jyothipuram).

In Chennai, the areas I checked like Madippakkam, Tambaram, Mylapore too seems to be online with mkt rate

Alphastallion

December 13th, 2011, 02:15 AM

What is better way to do SIP..mode for mutual funds..

whether through demat or directly through the respective mutual fund house. and their pros and cons,,

Arul Murugan

December 13th, 2011, 03:04 AM

Guideline values are ridiculously high in many place (In Salem i saw 9000 rs per sq feeet where the actual market rate is 3500)may have impact on realestate
they should track guideline values on par with market and charge less than 9%, 9% is too much for registering a property.

R2IChennai,

The rate is for commericial. I posted this in Salem thread few days ago. Even in this only Sarada college road 12000rs per sqft is equal to market value. The market value in Shevapet is around 6000rs per sqft for commercial purpose i.e on main road, but here it is mentioned as 3500 rupees only.

Also around new bus stand on Omalur road the market value is 15000rs per sqft but it varies from 7000 to 9000 rupees in guideline value.

Residential for me it looks still the guide line value is fixed 30-35% lower than market value. For example, the market value of empty plot near to our house in Arisiapalayam is 1500-1800rupees per sqft, but the guide line value is 1000rupees and earlier it was mere 150 rupees per sqft... thought they have increased by 6.5 times still I feel the guide line values are not near to real market value.

Another example, Gandhi road, Shankar nagar residential purpose market value ranges from 2500-3500 rupees, but guide line value for Gandhi road for residential is just 2000 rupees per sqft.

http://www.tnreginet.net/DraftGuideline2011/gvaluemainpage2011.asp

Prime commercial roads guide line value in the city.

1. Hasthampaty road - Rs 9000/Sqft
2. Gandhi road - Rs 9000/Sqft
3. Income tax office road - Rs 9000/Sqft
4. Maravaneri road - Rs 9000/Sqft
5. Cherry road - Rs 9000/Sqft (I guess this is branch one)
6. Town Railway station road - Rs 5000/Sqft
7. Bretts road - Rs 12000/Sqft
8. Cherry road - Rs 12000/Sqft
9. Sarada College road - Rs 12000/Sqft
10. Alagapuram main road - Rs 4500/Sqft
11. Kitchipalayam main road - Rs 4000/Sqft
12. Trichy main road - Rs 3000/Sqft (should be the south portion)
13. Big Bazaar street - Rs 8000/Sqft
14. Chinna Kadai Veethi Rs 8000/Sqft
15. Trichy main road - Rs 7000/Sqft
16. Arunachala Asari street - Rs 9000/Sqft
17. Theer Veethi i.e Car street - Rs 12000/Sqft
18. IInd Agraharam - Rs 12000/Sqft
19. Ist Agraharam - Rs 7000/Sqft

20. Arisipalayam main road - Rs 2500/Sqft
21. Meyyanur road - Rs 2500/Sqft
22. Omalur main road - Rs 3500/Sqft
23. Shevapet main road - Rs 3500/Sqft
24. Longly road - Rs 3500/Sqft
25. Police patrol road - Rs 3500/Sqft
26. Suramangalam main road - Rs 2000/Sqft
27. Sandaipet main road - Rs 3500/Sqft
28. Fort Main road - Rs 3500/Sqft
29. Brindavan road - Rs 2000/Sqft
30. Advaitha Ashram road - Rs 4000/Sqft
31. Omalur Main road - Rs 7000/Sqft
32. Central Bus stand Achuvan Eri - Rs 7000/Sqft
33. Swarnapuri Bharathi street - Rs 6500/Sqft

Are you sure that you didn't look at the commercial property value? 80-85% of what I checked for CBE region seems to reflect reality. Remaining seems to fall on both sides. There were places where the guideline values were high. At the same time it was too low compared to market rate at areas like NGGO Colony or Thudiyalur (Even PN palayam and Jyothipuram).

In Chennai, the areas I checked like Madippakkam, Tambaram, Mylapore too seems to be online with mkt rate

Yes I checked for CBE, Salem, Trichy.. IMHO they have kept the old commercial places guide line value high for example Oppanakara Veethi, Periya Kadai Veethi, Raja Veethi etc., still stay higher than arterial and happening commercial roads like Avinashi road/Trichy road.

Same is the case with Salem, old part of the city i.e we refer it as Town or Fort the guide line value is high compared to present happening commercial place like Swarnapuri, around new bus stand.

TShyam

December 13th, 2011, 03:53 AM

I have checked the guideline values in Chennai and it perfectly matched the reality. In Coimbatore and villages near it, if anything, a lot of areas are undervalued. Vikatan article is a paid nonsense. Government had committed a big blunder by not revising the guideline value for 5 years. That anomaly is just set right.

R2IChennai

December 15th, 2011, 07:57 AM

R2IChennai,

The rate is for commericial. I posted this in Salem thread few days ago. Even in this only Sarada college road 12000rs per sqft is equal to market value. The market value in Shevapet is around 6000rs per sqft for commercial purpose i.e on main road, but here it is mentioned as 3500 rupees only.

Also around new bus stand on Omalur road the market value is 15000rs per sqft but it varies from 7000 to 9000 rupees in guideline value.

Residential for me it looks still the guide line value is fixed 30-35% lower than market value. For example, the market value of empty plot near to our house in Arisiapalayam is 1500-1800rupees per sqft, but the guide line value is 1000rupees and earlier it was mere 150 rupees per sqft... thought they have increased by 6.5 times still I feel the guide line values are not near to real market value.

Another example, Gandhi road, Shankar nagar residential purpose market value ranges from 2500-3500 rupees, but guide line value for Gandhi road for residential is just 2000 rupees per sqft.

Yes I checked for CBE, Salem, Trichy.. IMHO they have kept the old commercial places guide line value high for example Oppanakara Veethi, Periya Kadai Veethi, Raja Veethi etc., still stay higher than arterial and happening commercial roads like Avinashi road/Trichy road.

Same is the case with Salem, old part of the city i.e we refer it as Town or Fort the guide line value is high compared to present happening commercial place like Swarnapuri, around new bus stand.

I saw for gandhi road hasthampatti area, we registered a flat (plot area reg700rs per sq feet last year and i think I noticed 9000Rs and shocked. I know market rate 2500-3000Rs

kongutamizhan

January 5th, 2012, 10:08 PM

http://news.vikatan.com/?nid=5865

தங்க நகைகளுக்கு இனி 'ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை' கட்டாயம்!

நுகர்வோர் நலன் கருதி, தங்க நகைகளுக்கு ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரையை கட்டாயமாக்கும் பரிந்துரைக்கு மத்திய அரசு இன்று ஒப்புதல் அளித்தது.

இதுதொடர்பாக, பிரதமர் மன்மோகன் சிங் தலைமையிலான மத்திய அமைச்சரவை, 1986 ஆம் ஆண்டின் இந்திய தரச் சட்டத்தில் (Bureau of Indian Standards-BIS) திருத்தம் கொண்டு வர ஒப்புதல் கொடுத்துள்ளது.

தற்போது சிமென்ட், மினரல் வாட்டர், பால் உள்ளிட்ட 77 பொருட்களுக்கு கட்டாயமாக பி.ஐ.எஸ். முத்திரை பெற வேண்டும் என்று இருக்கிறது. இதில், விரைவில் தங்க ஆபரணங்களும் சேர இருக்கிறது.

மேலும், மத்திய நுகர்வோர் விவகார துறை அமைச்சகம், வெளிநாடுகளில் இருந்து இறக்குமதி செய்யப்படும் ஐ.டி. பொருட்களில் தரமானதை மட்டும் இறக்குமதி செய்ய அவற்றுக்கும் தர முத்திரை திட்டத்தை கொண்டு வர திட்டமிட்டிருக்கிறது.

ஹால்மார்க் வந்தது எப்படி?

தங்கத்தின் மீது ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை பதிக்கும் வழக்கம் 13 ஆம் நூற்றாண்டில் பிரான்சில் தொடங்கியது. பின்னர் அது இங்கிலாந்துக்கு பரவி லண்டனில் உள்ள பிரசித்தி பெற்ற பொற்கொல்லர் அரங்கில் (Goldsmiths' Hall) வழக்கமானது. இந்த பொற்கொல்லர் அரங்கில்தான் தங்கத்தின் சுத்தத்துக்கான பொற்கொல்லர் 'முத்திரை' அந்த காலத்தில் பதிக்கப்பட்டு வந்தது. அந்த Goldsmith's Hall என்ற சொல்லே காலப்போக்கில் மருவி Hallmark என்றாகிவிட்டது.

*

ஹால்மார்க்: முத்திரையை மட்டும் பார்க்காதீர்கள்! (25.10.2011 தேதியிட்ட நாணயம் விகடனில் இருந்து)

முன்பெல்லாம் தங்க நகைகளை நம்பிக்கையின் அடிப்படையில் நன்கு பழகிய கடைகளில்தான் வாங்கினார்கள். ஆனால், இன்றோ ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை வந்துவிட்டது. இந்த முத்திரை பொறித்த நகைகளை வாங்கினால் போதும், தங்கத்தின் தரத்திற்கு கியாரண்டி. இந்த ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை எவ்வாறு வழங்கப்படுகிறது? என நகைக் கடைக்காரர்களிடம் விசாரித்தோம். விளக்கமாகவே எடுத்துச் சொன்னார்கள்.

ஹால்மார்க்!

சுத்தமான தங்கம் என்பதன் அடையாளமாக காட்டப் படுவதுதான் ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை. தங்கத்தில் 24, 22, 18, 14, 10, 9, 8 கேரட்கள் உள்ளன. இதில் 24, 22, 18 கேரட் மட்டுமே பெரும்பாலும் பயன்படுத்தப்படுகிறது. 24 கேரட் என்பது 99.9% சுத்தமான தங்கம். முதலீட்டு அடிப்படையில் தங்கக் கட்டிகளாக வாங்குகிறவர்கள் இந்த 24 கேரட் தங்கத்தையே வாங்குவார்கள். இந்த 24 கேரட் தங்கத்தின் விலை 22 கேரட் தங்கத்தைவிட சற்று கூடுதலாக இருக்கும். இந்த சுத்த தங்கத்தைக் கொண்டு ஆபரணங்கள் செய்ய முடியாது என்பதால், சில உலோகங்களைச் சேர்த்து 22 கேரட் மற்றும் 18 கேரட்களில் நகை செய்கிறார்கள். இந்த நகையைதான் ஆபரணத் தங்கம் என்கிறோம்.

அதிக அளவில் உலோகத்தைக் கலக்கும்போது தங்கத்தின் சுத்தத் தன்மை குறைந்துவிடுகிறது. வாங்கும் போது 22 கேரட்டுக்கான விலை கொடுத்து வாங்கிவிட்டு, விற்கும்போது அது வெறும் 18 கேரட் தங்கம்தான் என்பது தெரியவரும்போது வாங்கியவர்கள் நொந்துபோய் விடுகிறார்கள்.

யார் வழங்குகிறார்கள்?

இந்திய அரசின் தரக்கட்டுப்பாடு அமைப்பான 'பீரோ ஆஃப் இந்தியன் ஸ்டாண்டர்டு’ (பி.ஐ.எஸ்.) என்கிற அமைப்புதான் இந்த ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரையைத் தருகிறது. ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை வழங்கும் டீலர்கள் நாடு முழுக்க இருக்கிறார்கள். இந்த முத்திரை வழங்குவதற்கு பி.ஐ.எஸ். அமைப்பு இவர்களுக்கு லைசென்ஸ் தந்திருக்கிறது. இந்த லைசென்ஸ் பெற்ற டீலர்கள் மட்டுமே ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை வழங்க முடியும்.

தர பரிசோதனை!

தங்களுக்குத் தேவையான நகைகளை பொற்கொல்லர்களை வைத்து செய்வது தான் நகைக் கடைகளின் முந்தைய வழக்கம். ஆனால், இப்போதோ வளையலுக்கு ஒருவர், நெக்லஸுக்கு ஒருவர், மோதிரத் திற்கு இன்னொருவர் என பலரிடமிருந்து நகைகளை மொத்தமாகச் செய்து, அதை வாங்கி விற்கின்றனர் நகைக் கடைக்காரர்கள். இப்படிச் செய்யப்படும் நகைகளை ஹால்மார்க் டீலர்களிடம் கொடுத்து நகையின் தரத்தைப் பரிசோதிக்கின்றனர்.

இப்படி தரம் பரிசோதிக் கப்பட்ட நகைகள் 22 கேரட் எனில் 91.6% ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரையைத் தருகின்றனர். 18 கேரட் நகை எனில் 75% ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை தருவார்கள். எனவே, ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை இருக்கிறதா என்று பார்ப்பதோடு, அது 91.6 சதவிகிதமா, இல்லை 75 சதவிகிதமா என கட்டாயம் பார்ப்பது அவசியம்.

முத்திரையில் ஏமாற்றினால்..?

நகை வாங்கும்போது 22 கேரட் என வாங்கிவிட்டு, விற்கப் போகும்போது 18 கேரட் என தெரிய வந்தால் உடனடியாக பி.ஐ.எஸ். அலுவலகத்தில் புகார் தெரிவிக்கலாம். சென்னை, கோயம்புத்தூர் ஆகிய ஊர்களில் இந்த அலுவலகம் இருக்கிறது. தரம் குறைவாக இருக்கும் நகையை அவர்கள் பரிசோதித்து புகார் உறுதி செய்யப்பட்டால் அந்த ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை வழங்கிய டீலரின் லைசென்ஸை உடனடியாக ரத்து செய்வார்கள்.

எந்த கடையில் நகை வாங்கினோமோ அந்தக் கடை கண்டிப்பாக நஷ்டஈடு வழங்கியாக வேண்டும். ஒருவேளை நஷ்ட ஈடு தர மறுத்தால் நுகர்வோர் நீதிமன்றத்தை அணுகலாம். சின்ன மோதிரமோ, காதில் அணியும் தோடோ அனைத்து நகைகளிலும் இந்த ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை இருக்கும். ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை வழங்கும் ஒவ்வொரு டீலருக்கும் ஒரு தனிப்பட்ட அடையாளத்துடன் கூடிய முத்திரை இருக்கும். இந்த முத்திரையை வைத்து அதை வழங்கிய டீலரை எளிதாக கண்டுபிடித்துவிட முடியும்.

ஹால்மார்க் முத்திரை என்பதை ஏதோ ஐ.எஸ்.ஐ. முத்திரை போல பொதுவான ஒரு விஷயமாக மக்கள் நினைக் கிறார்கள். தரத்திற்கேற்ப இந்த முத்திரையும் மாறும் என்பதில் கவனம் கொண்டால், நகை வாங்கும்போது நாம் ஏமாற வாய்ப்பில்லை என்பது நிச்சயம்.
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Here is the table for hallmark gold purity %. Again thanks vikatan

http://www.vikatan.com/news/images/p11a.jpg

satishanu

January 5th, 2012, 10:23 PM

when buying diamond, check for 4C's (Carat, Cut, Color and Clarity). Not sure if the quality check is same in India as well.

http://www.source.co.il/diamonds-4cs.html

http://www.myjewelrysource.com/toplevelpages/diamond_definitions.htm

chennaidesi

January 5th, 2012, 11:27 PM

Dont buy anything just invest in real estate.:lol:

kongutamizhan

January 6th, 2012, 12:00 AM

Dont buy anything just invest in real estate.:lol:

Well my doomsday prediction on RE in India. Real estate market needs a correction. It's a bubble waiting to burst :)

satishanu

January 6th, 2012, 12:27 AM

It's good time to buy/invest in RE @ US.

kongutamizhan

January 6th, 2012, 12:38 AM

^^ True that!! India veeta vitha, US'la rendu vangalam. Periya veedu onnu, chinna veedu onnu. Anyone up to it? :)

krishnaswamy

January 6th, 2012, 04:39 AM

Well my doomsday prediction on RE in India. Real estate market needs a correction. It's a bubble waiting to burst :)
+1..
high inflation..high EMI..Cost of Education is going high..
People in India are suffocating from various corners..
1 more recession..."DAMAL"...

kongutamizhan

January 8th, 2012, 08:04 PM

NRI makkals, unga kitta gevermentu panam kekkudhu :)

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/channels/nation/north/increase-investment-india-pranab-urges-diaspora-014

Increase investment in India: Pranab urges diaspora

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Sunday urged non-resident Indian (NRI) entrepreneures to increase investment in India, saying the the economic engagement of the diaspora was not been upto the potential so far.

"We have not yet reaped the full benefits of India's great diaspora. The most obvious area remains that of investment and entrepreneurship," Mukherjee said while addressing the 10th edition of the Pravasi Bharatiya Divas annual diaspora meet here.

The finance minister pointed out that flow of foreign direct investment in the countries like China had been mostly by the Chinese living overseas, while in case of India, it was not upto that level.

"I am aware that there have been large ticket investments by non-resident Indian entrepreneurs. But I think it is far less than the potential and perhaps too concentrated on the formal sector," he said.

"Rather, we must pursue an alternative model. One that is more balanced and holistic in a socio-economic sense," he added.

Mukherjee said the entrepreneurial skills of the Indian business community settled abroad were a matter of envy for other nations.

"Foreign firms are increasingly aware of the sharp business acumen of the Indian entrepreneur and managers. They have come to respect our business houses and practices," he said.

The finance minister said India was emerging as a major player in global economic affairs and talents and entrepreneurship of its citizens were widely recognised.

"We are widely recognised as a major driver of global growth. India is a member of the G20 and, within the G20, it is considered a part of the systemically most important 7," he said.

Mukherjee said migration of people should not be regarded as a 'brain drain'.

"The movement of the diaspora is no longer unidirectional as it was in the past. What started as a brain drain, has now become a brain gain, not just for India but the world as a whole," he said.

Almost 30 million Indian diaspora live in over 130 countries across the world. The finance minister said movement of people from India has helped in growth and development of the country.

"When in the 1970s a large number of highly qualified Indians were moving abroad, we were warned of the severe consequences of the brain drain. Contrary to conventional, and in hindsight myopic opinions, luckily we made no attempt to stop the flow. Today we are better off due to that," he said.

TShyam

January 8th, 2012, 11:35 PM

Well my doomsday prediction on RE in India. Real estate market needs a correction. It's a bubble waiting to burst :)

Well if Eurozone goes under (likely) or if there is some problem in Chinese RE market (unlikely), it may reverberate here. There may be some corrections but i wont go to the extent of using words like bubble, doomsday et al. There is a huge population waitlisted to have a decent piece of land in a urban area. Even now after such a huge appreciation (Chennai RE prices have doubled on an average from 2009 lows) residential rentals are in the 3 -4% region. A 30 lac apartment will fetch you 10K rent., a 50 lac apartment fetches you 15K rent and a one crore apartment fetches you around 25K to 30K in rent. Fundamentals are quite strong atleast for the current prices to stay if not for appreciation. So I dont think prices are going to fall dramatically as is the case in a bubble. You are not going to get a 50 lac apartment for 30 lacs next year (or the year after that).

Asset bubbles typically form over a period of low interest rates, when borrowing and investing in an appreciating asset class is easier and not when the cost of money is so high. If it was a bubble, it would have burst around sometime now - with interest rates so high. From now on, interest rates can take only one direction - down which means RE investment would be much easier. A RE bubble may form from now on (provided there are no external shocks) but I dont think there is any bubble right now.

satishanu

January 9th, 2012, 01:24 AM

^True that. Prices atleast in Chennai would hover around same price or slightly increase depending on location (near by metro or mono or ORR/IRR etc would get hiked considerably).

Banks in India have strict rules even for NRI. so many procedures to get loan. Bubble in US caused by sub prime lending to unqualified people which is not the case in India.

satishanu

January 24th, 2012, 11:21 PM

Any working couples tried filing tax separately in US ? Seems it may be better option to do depending on the scenarios.

geico2000

January 26th, 2012, 08:56 PM

Well my doomsday prediction on RE in India. Real estate market needs a correction. It's a bubble waiting to burst :)

I have been personally advised to with hold any investments in land. First the economy doesn't looks good. Next, there are no buyers in the market. Third as the new governments land valuations are coming to effect, which will increase the registration cost, this will led to reduction in land cost. This is insider advice, who is in to high-end real estate dealings for the last 25 years. He said, "கையில காசு வைசிருகவந்தன் இபோதைக்கு புத்திசாலி ".

I backtracked buying a cocunt farm and invested in to some stocks.

geico2000

January 26th, 2012, 09:14 PM

Well if Eurozone goes under (likely) or if there is some problem in Chinese RE market (unlikely), it may reverberate here. There may be some corrections but i wont go to the extent of using words like bubble, doomsday et al. There is a huge population waitlisted to have a decent piece of land in a urban area. Even now after such a huge appreciation (Chennai RE prices have doubled on an average from 2009 lows) residential rentals are in the 3 -4% region. A 30 lac apartment will fetch you 10K rent., a 50 lac apartment fetches you 15K rent and a one crore apartment fetches you around 25K to 30K in rent. Fundamentals are quite strong atleast for the current prices to stay if not for appreciation. So I dont think prices are going to fall dramatically as is the case in a bubble. You are not going to get a 50 lac apartment for 30 lacs next year (or the year after that).

Asset bubbles typically form over a period of low interest rates, when borrowing and investing in an appreciating asset class is easier and not when the cost of money is so high. If it was a bubble, it would have burst around sometime now - with interest rates so high. From now on, interest rates can take only one direction - down which means RE investment would be much easier. A RE bubble may form from now on (provided there are no external shocks) but I dont think there is any bubble right now.

The answer for the first highlight is the second highligted one. China is under severe strain from bad loans and inflation is so high there. Dooms day is not so long in RE-China. Chinese banks are writing off huge chunk of laons.

Coming back to india, already the balance sheet of most Indian infra companies are in negative which is really a cause for concern. Many of them miscalculated their returns. Europe is collapsing and US is becoming another Japan. There are other countries that have started to give a tough competition for India for outsourcing, like vietnam for textiles. so our FDI inflow is not in good shape. There are predications that Rupee may break 55 to dollar. All this may cause a black hole in Indian RE.

Other than this, the big இலிசாவை group software enginers are not seeing those big salary hikes and the days of companiens showing 30% increase in profits are gone. So unless a new இலிசாவை group is found there wont be much increase in RE prices but if the current scenrio (slowdown) continues for another 1 year we will see reduction in prices.

geico2000

January 26th, 2012, 09:16 PM

Any working couples tried filing tax separately in US ? Seems it may be better option to do depending on the scenarios.

I dont think you will be saving much by filing separetely unless your income is very high (more than a million). This may not be true for some states.

satishanu

January 28th, 2012, 03:55 AM

Not true. My sis-in-law family tried it and got $800 saving filing separate. Again as it said it may vary depending on certain factors such as salary range, medical costs, per-diem etc..

kongutamizhan

January 28th, 2012, 04:03 AM

TShyam

January 28th, 2012, 11:59 AM

The answer for the first highlight is the second highligted one. China is under severe strain from bad loans and inflation is so high there. Dooms day is not so long in RE-China. Chinese banks are writing off huge chunk of laons.

Coming back to india, already the balance sheet of most Indian infra companies are in negative which is really a cause for concern. Many of them miscalculated their returns. Europe is collapsing and US is becoming another Japan. There are other countries that have started to give a tough competition for India for outsourcing, like vietnam for textiles. so our FDI inflow is not in good shape. There are predications that Rupee may break 55 to dollar. All this may cause a black hole in Indian RE.

Other than this, the big இலிசாவை group software enginers are not seeing those big salary hikes and the days of companiens showing 30% increase in profits are gone. So unless a new இலிசாவை group is found there wont be much increase in RE prices but if the current scenrio (slowdown) continues for another 1 year we will see reduction in prices.

I dont understand what you are trying to say. Please be more precise. Besides I dont think Chinese inflation is so high. Its in the 4-5% range. Uncomfortable but cannot be labelled "so high". Infact India's inflation is almost double that of China. The so called Chinese bubble has so many reasons but easy credit was definitely not one of them. The govt and lenders tightened the screws even when there was a ravenous appetite for RE in China. So, it is set for a soft landing with prices and supply moderating unlike what happened in 2006-07 in the west.

Most probably there is going to be an Eurozone induced recession this year, so yes RE market will have difficult times. For example there is a 2700 flat project coming up at Tiruporur near Mahabalipuram. Sathishanu posted (http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=87975123&postcount=75) a residential project in Chennai residential projects thread which seems to have 2000 flats some 4 km's off OMR near TCS, Siruseri. Now these promoters are definitely going to have a tough time selling even 20% of those things. There wont be enough end user demand even in normal times let alone during recessions. These projects depend overwhelmingly on IT/ITES employees and a global downturn will affect them more than the others and these projects come up in places which dont have substantial social infrastructure.

But in core city and its suburbs, there is still lot of demand which has nothing to do with IT/ITES or for that matter any foreign trade. Chennai RE has gone up almost 3 times in 4 years (http://www.nhb.org.in/Residex/Data&Graphs.php). That kind of performance may not be seen going forward; it will not go up another 4 times by 2015 but I dont see any reason for a "crash".

satishanu

January 28th, 2012, 07:48 PM

Shyam, certain blocks(15,18,21,24) in bollinenihillside is completely sold out.

http://www.bollinenihillside.com/innerPages/Bollinenihillside.html

Still construction is going on for new blocks and handing over lot of blocks.
Here is the Jan 2012 newsletter from their site:

http://www.bollinenihillside.com/images/BOLLINENI%20HILLSIDE%20newsletter%20January%202012.pdf

TShyam

January 28th, 2012, 08:10 PM

But it has a total of 70 odd blocks isnt it? Do you know the rates at which they are selling? I searched the website but couldnt find the rates.

krishnaswamy

January 28th, 2012, 08:17 PM

But it has a total of 70 odd blocks isnt it? Do you know the rates at which they are selling? I searched the website but couldnt find the rates.
my 2 friends(both of them are brothers and my ex- manager). 1 is here and the elder is in chennai.
elder one gave all the "big" hype about bollineni to the younger guy and went to see the site..
"there is no hills" near by and they are calling hillside.
there is no proper roads and they are calling World class.
2 perum "thalai" therikka odi vanthutanga..
6-7 of my friends, went and saw the site, just escaped...

I will still stuck to my words..buying apartment outside chennai city and buying with short span of return of 10-15 yrs...
they are going to get big "Halwa"..
buying a apartment in 30th floor or 45th floor with more than 1000 apartments...
maintenance cost will be huge...
because of corruption, absence of lack of vision for the infrastructure..political compulsion... life will not be as smooth as in small apartments or within the city.
but still the bookings are going on and people are buying..
but their fate is going to be seen in next few years.

satishanu

January 28th, 2012, 08:24 PM

I agree the facilities will improve slowly outside city limits. Now it seems they have school, 24 hr power back etc. Long term things will get better.

R2IChennai

January 28th, 2012, 08:25 PM

^^

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/money-guides/sometimes-it-pays-to-file-separately.aspx

Next one is an old article. Joint income limits may have changed now but still has good info

http://www.fool.com/taxes/2000/taxes000526.htm

How do you file independently with join bank account, stock account , joint house ownership/mortgage etc? just divide by half?

krishnaswamy

January 28th, 2012, 08:31 PM

I agree the facilities will improve slowly outside city limits. Now it seems they have school, 24 hr power back etc. Long term things will get better.
Sir,
that time people will be thinking of going back towards their Tier 2 cities.
i feel lot of my friends, or whomever i speak , wants to go back to their home in next 10-15 years.
so naturally Tier 2 cities will be growing bigger and Govt will be forced to concentrate on them.
so these big, big flats, there will not be huge demand.
we can not compare ourselves with Bombay or Delhi.
TN is the State, where we urbanisation is most in Tier 2 cities.
so, IMO, people will tend to move away.
couple of my friends, moved away from OMR and bought properties in CBE.
instead of buying 35 lakh apartment, they bought 0.5 ground with old house in CBE.this is just sample.
Had Govt improved OMR in 2001-2008, it would have been nice.
enimelthan ezhnuthu nadakanumna, it will take next 10-15 yrs.. but that time, Tier 2 cities would have grown massively and the demand will increase.

RE in chennai is about to CRASH

satishanu

January 28th, 2012, 09:33 PM

madurakarenda

January 28th, 2012, 09:40 PM

Yes, it won't crash. Crocodiles there won't let the prices to fall there.

Though infra is good enough in other cities of TN (I took into account transportation infra including air, road, rail and ports into account), and peaceful living to create much white collar jobs, don't know the reason why they neglect others despite the resources such as skilled manpower is available throughout TN :( What are all the other factors that are to be taken into account?

krishnaswamy

January 28th, 2012, 10:02 PM

Let's see. we will come back in a year or x no. of year (u give the x value) and see if it is 'crashed' or not. I am not expecting to be hiked up but don't think it will CRASH as you say.

Tier-2 cities cannot compete with Chennai in terms of jobs, infra etc.
if the RE is not crashed, why none of the RE companies are not coming back to their stock prices (in 2008).
what is RE crash means? if we get the apartment at the same price after 3 to 4 yrs or even less than that that is a crash..
if a builder unable to sell more than 60% of the project and could not complete the project, it is a crash..
if people are not willing to migrate to "those" skyscrapper and if you dont get "Rent" on that, that is a crash right?
Rs 3250 Sq. feet will not go back to 1500 because of increase in raw material cost..
but 3250 Sq.feet will go down between 2500 to 3000.(depends upon elicha vayan customers)
that is my opinion..

TShyam

January 28th, 2012, 10:52 PM

RE companies and RE are not the same. In late 2007, when the stock market was >20000, I remember Unitech was trading at more than 300 times its earnings. That is an absurd valuation for any company.

To put it perspective, imagine buying a flat for 1.5 crores and renting it for 4000/month!! Thats how crazily RE companies were valued at their peak. They were also leveraged to the hilt. I remember seeing debt equity ratios as high as 7 or 8.

Coming to Chennai RE, of course you are going to burn your fingers if you pour in 40 lacs into an apartment in the middle of nowhere. We have to exercise discretion while investing. This applies to any investment. Just because the stock market is rising, you dont go and invest in some operator controlled stocks. Similarly, when interest rates are high, you dont buy the bonds of companies about to go bankrupt the next day. In the same way, if you are dumb enough you will lose money in RE too. So it is absurd to say that property prices will rise in all localities in all cities. It is equally ridiculous to say that RE will crash in so and so city. You were saying 60% of some projects are unoccupied. I bet none of those projects are within Chennai city limits (400 sq.km). Such projects are infact limited to OMR.

Btw Coimbatore is not cheap either. The peak rates are over 20000/sq.ft in the poshest of localities and commercial hotspots (RS Puram, Gandhipuram etc). The whole stretch between Peelamedu to Gandhipuram costs atleast 10K/sq.ft going upto 20K/sq.ft. If you sell in Chennai and buy in Coimbatore, you will get marginally better properties thats all (that too for 35 lacs).

I do not know about Madurai but I am sure there will atleast be few areas in the 10-15K/sq.ft range. You have to go to much smaller towns to get a big differential w.r.t Chennai.

satishanu

January 28th, 2012, 10:56 PM

As per Shyam's post RE has increased 3 times from 2007 to 2011. You need to tell which project did not sell 60% within city limits.

Going forward it won't increase 3 times for sure and will stabilise more or less with current prices.

TShyam

January 28th, 2012, 11:11 PM

--deleted--

krishnaswamy

January 28th, 2012, 11:14 PM

Shyam, Satish:
I agree to your points.
I mean to say that hereafterwards, OMR projects, projects in oragadam or some where interior villages in outskirts of chennai, may not fetch you much more.
I have seen price to 300% times from 2006 to 2008. but after 2008, i did not see that much appreciation of any projects.outskirs of chennai(OMR, Oragadm).
but going by the trend, it might come down from today's level.
since even Tier-2 cities are getting expensive, people are thinking about their investments in chennai. instead of investing here in Chennai on 3rd house, they are moving towards CBE, MDU, TPJ.
similarly NRI started investing in Tier-2 Cities instead of Chennai.
finally, Bottom line is
People's mindset is changing. They started thinking, Investing anymore in Chennai outskirts needs to be cautioned and it might be a better option to invest in Tier2 Cities.
So, gradually demand in Chennai will be reduced. and we might endup "over supply" in chennai in the next few years.

TShyam

January 29th, 2012, 11:12 PM

The official line from the United States and the European Union is that Tehran must be punished for continuing its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. The punishment: sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, which are meant to isolate Iran and depress the value of its currency to such a point that the country crumbles.

But that line doesn’t make sense, and the sanctions will not achieve their goals. Iran is far from isolated and its friends – like India – will stand by the oil-producing nation until the US either backs down or acknowledges the real matter at hand. That matter is the American dollar and its role as the global reserve currency.

The short version of the story is that a 1970s deal cemented the US dollar as the only currency to buy and sell crude oil, and from that monopoly on the all-important oil trade the US dollar slowly but surely became the reserve currency for global trades in most commodities and goods. Massive demand for US dollars ensued, pushing the dollar’s value up, up, and away. In addition, countries stored their excess US dollars savings in US Treasuries, giving the US government a vast pool of credit from which to draw.

We know where that situation led – to a US government suffocating in debt while its citizens face stubbornly high unemployment (due in part to the high value of the dollar); a failed real estate market; record personal-debt burdens; a bloated banking system; and a teetering economy. That is not the picture of a world superpower worthy of the privileges gained from having its currency back global trade. Other countries are starting to see that and are slowly but surely moving away from US dollars in their transactions, starting with oil.

If the US dollar loses its position as the global reserve currency, the consequences for America are dire. A major portion of the dollar’s valuation stems from its lock on the oil industry – if that monopoly fades, so too will the value of the dollar. Such a major transition in global fiat currency relationships will bode well for some currencies and not so well for others, and the outcomes will be challenging to predict. But there is one outcome that we foresee with certainty: Gold will rise. Uncertainty around paper money always bodes well for gold, and these are uncertain days indeed.
The Petrodollar System

To explain this situation properly, we have to start in 1973. That’s when President Nixon asked King Faisal of Saudi Arabia to accept only US dollars as payment for oil and to invest any excess profits in US Treasury bonds, notes, and bills. In exchange, Nixon pledged to protect Saudi Arabian oil fields from the Soviet Union and other interested nations, such as Iran and Iraq. It was the start of something great for the US, even if the outcome was as artificial as the US real-estate bubble and yet constitutes the foundation for the valuation of the US dollar.

By 1975, all of the members of OPEC agreed to sell their oil only in US dollars. Every oil-importing nation in the world started saving its surplus in US dollars so as to be able to buy oil; with such high demand for dollars the currency strengthened. On top of that, many oil-exporting nations like Saudi Arabia spent their US dollar surpluses on Treasury securities, providing a new, deep pool of lenders to support US government spending.

The “petrodollar” system was a brilliant political and economic move. It forced the world’s oil money to flow through the US Federal Reserve, creating ever-growing international demand for both US dollars and US debt, while essentially letting the US pretty much own the world’s oil for free, since oil’s value is denominated in a currency that America controls and prints. The petrodollar system spread beyond oil: the majority of international trade is done in US dollars. That means that from Russia to China, Brazil to South Korea, every country aims to maximize the US-dollar surplus garnered from its export trade to buy oil.

The US has reaped many rewards. As oil usage increased in the 1980s, demand for the US dollar rose with it, lifting the US economy to new heights. But even without economic success at home the US dollar would have soared, because the petrodollar system created consistent international demand for US dollars, which in turn gained in value. A strong US dollar allowed Americans to buy imported goods at a massive discount – the petrodollar system essentially creating a subsidy for US consumers at the expense of the rest of the world. Here, finally, the US hit on a downside: The availability of cheap imports hit the US manufacturing industry hard, and the disappearance of manufacturing jobs remains one of the biggest challenges in resurrecting the US economy today.

There is another downside, a potential threat now lurking in the shadows. The value of the US dollar is determined in large part by the fact that oil is sold in US dollars. If that trade shifts to a different currency, countries around the world won’t need all their US money. The resulting sell-off of US dollars would weaken the currency dramatically.

So here’s an interesting thought experiment. Everybody says the US goes to war to protect its oil supplies, but doesn’t it really go to war to ensure the continuation of the petrodollar system?

The Iraq war provides a good example. Until November 2000, no OPEC country had dared to violate the US dollar-pricing rule, and while the US dollar remained the strongest currency in the world there was also little reason to challenge the system. But in late 2000, France and a few other EU members convinced Saddam Hussein to defy the petrodollar process and sell Iraq’s oil for food in euros, not dollars. In the time between then and the March 2003 American invasion of Iraq, several other nations hinted at their interest in non-US dollar oil trading, including Russia, Iran, Indonesia, and even Venezuela. In April 2002, Iranian OPEC representative Javad Yarjani was invited to Spain by the EU to deliver a detailed analysis of how OPEC might at some point sell its oil to the EU for euros, not dollars.

This movement, founded in Iraq, was starting to threaten the dominance of the US dollar as the global reserve currency and petro currency. In March 2003, the US invaded Iraq, ending the oil-for-food program and its euro payment program.

There are many other historic examples of the US stepping in to halt a movement away from the petrodollar system, often in covert ways. In February 2011, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), called for a new world currency to challenge the dominance of the US dollar. Three months later a maid at the Sofitel New York Hotel alleged that Strauss-Kahn sexually assaulted her. Strauss-Kahn was forced out of his role at the IMF within weeks; he has since been cleared of any wrongdoing.

War and insidious interventions of this sort may be costly, but the costs of not protecting the petrodollar system would be far higher. If euros, yen, renminbi, rubles, or for that matter straight gold, were generally accepted for oil, the US dollar would quickly become irrelevant, rendering the currency almost worthless. As the rest of the world realizes that there are other options besides the US dollar for global transactions, the US is facing a very significant – and very messy – transition in the global oil machine.

The Iranian Dilemma

Iran may be isolated from the United States and Western Europe, but Tehran still has some pretty staunch allies. Iran and Venezuela are advancing $4 billion worth of joint projects, including a bank. India has pledged to continue buying Iranian oil because Tehran has been a great business partner for New Delhi, which struggles to make its payments. Greece opposed the EU sanctions because Iran was one of very few suppliers that had been letting the bankrupt Greeks buy oil on credit. South Korea and Japan are pleading for exemptions from the coming embargoes because they rely on Iranian oil. Economic ties between Russia and Iran are getting stronger every year.

Then there’s China. Iran’s energy resources are a matter of national security for China, as Iran already supplies no less than 15% of China’s oil and natural gas. That makes Iran more important to China than Saudi Arabia is to the United States. Don’t expect China to heed the US and EU sanctions much – China will find a way around the sanctions in order to protect two-way trade between the nations, which currently stands at $30 billion and is expected to hit $50 billion in 2015. In fact, China will probably gain from the US and EU sanctions on Iran, as it will be able to buy oil and gas from Iran at depressed prices.

So Iran will continue to have friends, and those friends will continue to buy its oil. More importantly, you can bet they won’t be paying for that oil with US dollars. Rumors are swirling that India and Iran are at the negotiating table right now, hammering out a deal to trade oil for gold, supported by a few rupees and some yen. Iran is already dumping the dollar in its trade with Russia in favor of rials and rubles. India is already using the yuan with China; China and Russia have been trading in rubles and yuan for more than a year; Japan and China are moving towards transactions in yen and yuan.

And all those energy trades between Iran and China? That will be settled in gold, yuan, and rial. With the Europeans out of the mix, in short order none of Iran’s 2.4 million barrels of oil a day will be traded in petrodollars.

With all this knowledge in hand, it starts to seem pretty reasonable that the real reason tensions are mounting in the Persian Gulf is because the United States is desperate to torpedo this movement away from petrodollars. The shift is being spearheaded by Iran and backed by India, China, and Russia. That is undoubtedly enough to make Washington anxious enough to seek out an excuse to topple the regime in Iran.

Speaking of that search for an excuse, this is interesting. A team of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors just visited Iran. The IAEA is supervising all things nuclear in Iran, and it was an IAEA report in November warning that the country was progressing in its ability to make weapons that sparked this latest round of international condemnation against the supposedly near-nuclear state. But after their latest visit, the IAEA’s inspectors reported no signs of bomb making. Oh, and if keeping the world safe from rogue states with nuclear capabilities were the sole motive, why have North Korea and Pakistan been given a pass?

There is another consideration to keep in mind, one that is very important when it comes to making some investment decisions based on this situation: Russia, India, and China – three members of the rising economic powerhouse group known as the BRICs (which also includes Brazil) – are allied with Iran and are major gold producers. If petrodollars go out of vogue and trading in other currencies gets too complicated, they will tap their gold storehouses to keep the crude flowing. Gold always has and always will be the fallback currency and, as mentioned before, when currency relationships start to change and valuations become hard to predict, trading in gold is a tried and true failsafe.

2012 might end up being most famous as the year in which the world defected from the US dollar as the global currency of choice. Imagine the rest of the world doing the math and, little by little, beginning to do business in their own currencies and investing ever less of their surpluses in US Treasuries. It constitutes nothing less than a slow but sure decimation of the dollar.

That may not be a bad thing for the United States. The country’s gargantuan debts can never be repaid as long as the dollar maintains anything close to its current valuation. Given the state of the country, all that’s really left supporting the value in the dollar is its global reserve currency status. If that goes and the dollar slides, maybe the US will be able to repay its debts and start fresh. That new start would come without the privileges and ingrained subsidies to which Americans are so accustomed, but it’s amazing that the petrodollar system has lasted this long. It was only a matter of time before something would break it down.

Finally, the big question: How can one profit from this evolving situation? Playing with currencies is always very risky and, with the global game set to shift to significantly, it would require a lot of analysis and a fair bit of luck. The much more reliable way to play the game is through gold. Gold is the only currency backed by a physical commodity; and it is always where investors hide from a currency storm. The basic conclusion is that a slow demise of the petrodollar system is bullish for gold and very bearish for the US dollar.
http://jutiagroup.com/20120126-will-iran-kill-the-petrodollar/

Good times for gold? When gold had a sudden $40 surge on 24th, I was a little surprised. Turns out Israeli intelligence website Debka released this news (http://debka.com/article/21673/) on late on 23rd triggering a massive buying spree the next day. If this is true, then the retreat of dollar as a global reserve has started much earlier than I expected.

kongutamizhan

January 30th, 2012, 12:45 AM

http://jutiagroup.com/20120126-will-iran-kill-the-petrodollar/

Good times for gold? When gold had a sudden $40 surge on 24th, I was a little surprised. Turns out Israeli intelligence website Debka released this news (http://debka.com/article/21673/) on late on 23rd triggering a massive buying spree the next day. If this is true, then the retreat of dollar as a global reserve has started much earlier than I expected.

Sometimes I get a feeling that gold price defies all logic, and when it comes to it there is no way one can be rational about the cost we pay due to demand vs premium.

In other words the line where the demand stops and premiums / riders kick off is blurred here unlike RE :D (though you may not agree). There are several uncertainties and political factors that contribute to the demand like the one mentioned in debka which is why I stopped questioning the rationality behind it though I flirted with those questions for a while when gold hit peak few months back. Now I am back to my SIP with this :)

TShyam

January 30th, 2012, 02:16 AM

Gold has been a monetary unit since antiquity. It is rare, portable, divisible and it can retain its value. Nothing else comes close to gold in this regard. It is an unique commodity in that it doesnt have any value of its own. It just trades at its price simply because someone else is willing to buy it at that price. When the dollar no longer performs the function of reserve currency, gold can take its position in the world trade. Although I dont see a return to the gold standard, it will be looked upon more and more favorably as a tradable currency. Gold is in a multi year bull market and I dont see any bubble in it (just like RE :D). If the concept of petro dollars is upset, there will be a dramatic upswing in the price of gold as central banks wont have any incentive to hold dollars. It will be dumped and its value will collapse. The fact that OPEC accepts only dollars is the sole reason why dollar is the current global reserve currency and that is why US employs its full military might to protect the value of the dollar. There is no doubt about it. Sooner or later, this delinking was bound to happen but I didnt expect it so early. Anyway this oil for gold is just a rumour and not confirmed. But if it is true, all the crazy predictions of $5000 or $10000 gold suddenly might not seem too crazy.

karkal

January 30th, 2012, 03:10 AM

I don't think world will ever go back to gold standard, unless we start a new civilization who can live within their means (or) we can create it out of thin air. Gold at the max can reach $2500 in the near term in my opinion. The only option that can replace "$" will be a basket of currencies (yuan, yen, rupee, euro, dollar) to pay for oil.

TShyam

January 30th, 2012, 07:43 AM

krishnaswamy

January 30th, 2012, 07:47 AM

By "near term" do you mean 3-6 months? Then even 2500 is a bit of a stretch. It is a good $800 from here. If govts dont reveal in public that they are trading oil for gold, it aint happening atleast for another 2 years.
Shyam Sir,
I could not get understand.
If oil is traded agaist Gold, the value will increase or decrease?
Note: please dont say 'gandhi-a suttangala?" ::lol:

TShyam

January 30th, 2012, 07:54 AM

Shyam Sir,
I could not get understand.
If oil is traded agaist Gold, the value will increase or decrease?
Note: please dont say 'gandhi-a suttangala?" ::lol:

Value of gold will increase vis a vis dollar and other currencies because central banks will sell their dollar reserves to buy gold for buying oil.

krishnaswamy

January 30th, 2012, 08:06 AM

Value of gold will increase vis a vis dollar and other currencies because central banks will sell their dollar reserves to buy gold for buying oil.
Got it sir. ..Thanks very much.I went through above article.
If Gold is going to be precious means, what should be India's position among its pears?
because by nature, Indian Treasury, Indian Banks, Indian household store lots of gold right?

TShyam

January 30th, 2012, 08:42 AM

Got it sir. ..Thanks very much.I went through above article.
If Gold is going to be precious means, what should be India's position among its pears?
because by nature, Indian Treasury, Indian Banks, Indian household store lots of gold right?

Yeah, Indians currently hold more than 20000 tonnes of gold within its households. However, I wont give too much attention to this development. First of all, this is just a rumour and there is no concrete evidence suggesting India indeed is planning to use gold. India still can pay through Turkey (Halbank) and other currencies (Iran accepts Rubble, Yen and Yuan). So I wont conclude that India will pay with gold. I think this rumour was circulated just to put US on the backfoot. If it persists too much with the sanctions, it will end up shooting in its own feet. This is a master piece in diplomacy by both India and Iran. Iran has a reliable high capacity consumer for its crude while India and China gets a discount for the crude. US and EU look like total losers.

Another point to ponder is that Iran produces just 2.6 million barrels per day which is not even 10% of what OPEC produces (slightly more than 30 million bpd). All the other OPEC countries wont accept payment in any other currency except dollar. So it is too early to sing the swan song. But the important thing is that whenever the dollar hegemony was challenged, (Saddam, Gaddafi) US used military power to throw them out of power. This is the first time that US wont be able to use military power and will be forced to resolve the problem using diplomacy. That is a significant step towards the demise of dollar's dominance. We can say that this is the beginning of the end of dollar. It will be interesting to see where it will be in another 10 years.

karkal

February 11th, 2012, 09:22 PM

karkal

February 11th, 2012, 09:27 PM

Sana Khan's Personal Investment Advice

I invest in safe bets like FDs, property

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/channels/business/personal-finance/i-invest-safe-bets-fds-property-214

Sana Khan is a model who has acted in several Hindi, Tamil and Telugu films.

Q Are you a big investor? If yes, where do you invest?
I prefer to invest in real estate since it is not impacted by market shocks. I also invest in fixed deposits and mutual funds.

Q Who advises you in your investments?
Who else other than my mother? She has been my guiding force for everything that I do.

Q What is the investment strategy that you follow?
My strategy is to diversify my investments. I invest 70 per cent of my earnings and spend the rest.

How do you define your risk appetite?
I am conservative. Taking risks is not my cup of tea.

How often do you track business news?
I read newspapers and watch business channels whenever I have the time.

As told to B.V.S Prakash

TShyam

February 12th, 2012, 05:57 AM

India used to pay Iran 20% in Re and rest in $ for oil. Now Iran started accepting 45% Re and the rest in $. If the situation worsens we might even go to 70% in Re and the rest in Gold. In that case Gold might go to 2500$ in the near term (depends on bombing of Iran) , but the long term replacement can only be a basket of currencies.

India is not going to pay with gold. However this sanctions is offering some unprecedented opening for India. Indian export accounts for only 20% of its oil imports from Iran. But, these sanctions are forcing Iran to buy lot of goods from India as it has an excess of rupee and no other country to go. Already there are reports that exports of rice, tea and other agri products have increased. Iran is also looking to import heavy machinery from India. If India plays this game right, it has a lot to gain.

If the news coming out in the last few days are any indication, India is gaming it perfectly. A trade delegation under Khuller, our commerce secretary has left for Iran to look at other avenues for trade. Our diplomats headed by Mathai and Nirupama Rao are successfully warding off (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/world/asia/india-trumpets-ties-with-us-amid-iran-oil-deal.html?_r=1) pressure from US. They are pointing out that after US forces leave Afghanistan in 13-14, Iran will be India's (and hence US's) only gateway to that region.

I should say our foreign relations management have come a long way from the naivety of Nehru's era. I guess its the influence of K.Subrahmanyam and his advocacy of realpolitik.

TShyam

February 12th, 2012, 10:53 AM

karkal

February 13th, 2012, 03:46 AM

More than US, Israel might do some limited air strikes in Iran during US election time. Israeli lobby is very powerful in US and can getaway with it.

TShyam

February 13th, 2012, 04:35 AM

Yep possible but not likely without US support.

karkal

February 14th, 2012, 07:23 PM

US tax filing: Help for NRIs on how global income is taxed

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/nri/nri-tax/us-tax-filing-help-for-nris-on-how-global-income-is-taxed/articleshow/11887751.cms?curpg=1

It's tax filing season in the US. As we approach the last date, 17th April 2012, for filing tax returns for the year 2011, here's some help for NRIs living in the US on how their income from India gets taxed.

Tax on global income in the US

If you a US resident or US citizen (whether NRI, PIO or OCI), you must pay taxes in the US on your global income. Before we proceed, let us quickly look at the definition of US resident.

A person is said to be a resident of the US if he meets either of these two tests:

1) The first test is the 'green card test'. If at any time during the calendar year you were a lawful permanent resident of the United States according to the immigration laws, and this status has not been rescinded or administratively or judicially determined to have been abandoned, you are considered to have met the green card test.

2) The second test is the 'substantial presence test'. To meet the substantial presence test, you must have been physically present in the United States on at least 31 days during the current year, and 183 days during the 3 year period that includes the current year and the 2 years immediately before. To satisfy the 183 days requirement, count all of the days you were present in the current year, and one-third of the days you were present in the first year before the current year, and one-sixth of the days you were present in the second year before the current year.

If you are a green card holder (or a US citizen), you are considered a US resident for tax purposes irrespective of where you actually live. We will study the requirements of filing US tax returns for green card holders and US citizens living in India in another article.

If you are not a green card holder, then you must satisfy the substantial presence test. In this article we will see the US tax filing requirements for those who are actually living in the US.

How are various incomes taxed?

Having seen the definition of US resident, let us look at the various incomes in India and the tax implications on your US tax returns. While we are explaining the broad contours of the law, we strongly recommend that you read the relevant sections in the income tax act of both countries, the DTAA and also consult an expert for your specific case.

Salary

If you are a resident of the US but earned a part of your salary in India, then, as per the above definition, you would have to pay tax on your India income in the US. Is the payer in India subject to deduct tax at source in India? Not really. Article 16 of the DTAA states that salaries earned by a person who resides and works in country A (country A in this case being the US), shall be taxed 'only' in the country of residence, that is, the US. So if you are a resident in the US and are working in the US, you will pay tax on your India salary in the US.

However, it might happen that you earned salary in India before you became a resident of the US and tax was deducted at source on that income in India. In such cases, you can claim a credit of the taxes paid in India in the US.

Rajesh Vaidya, a chartered accountant from India who is currently a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and works at Florida based Raju Maniar CPA firm makes an important point, "I would like to highlight a grey area here. In India, various components of the salary package are taxed differently. For instance, reimbursements and certain allowances are tax-free. In the US however, there is no such distinction; any payment received from your employer is taxable. Now your form 16 reports only the taxable components of your salary. Ideally, when you file your income tax return in the US, you must disclose all the tax-free components of your Indian salary and pay tax in the US on those components too."

How to report: You must include your salary income from India in the tax return Form 1040. In case you are claiming tax credit, you must also fill up Form 1116. Remember that the US follows the calendar year for tax purposes while India follows the fiscal year. You must pro-rate your income according to the relevant years.

Note: There is an exception to Article 16 which states that in case the employment is exercised in the other country, that is, in India, tax will be deducted at source. But this exception would apply mainly to green card holders and US citizens. We will see this in the next article.

Income from contracts, freelance

If you are a consultant working in the US but receiving income from an Indian company, you would have to pay tax on that income in the US. This is irrespective of whether you receive the income in a bank account in the US or in India.
Again, we need to take a look at the DTAA to check if this income will get taxed in India. Article 15 of the DTAA says that in such cases, if a person is resident of one country and earning income from a source in another country, then that income would be taxed 'only' in the country of his or her residence.

So, if you work in the US and receive income from a source in India, you would owe taxes only in the US. You would have to inform your Indian payer not to deduct taxes at source from your income by submitting a Tax Residency Certificate, issued by the US IRS to the payer in India. In case you do not submit the certificate and your payer in India deducted tax at source, you can claim a credit of that on your US tax return.

How to report: "You must report your income on Schedule C of the 1040. You can claim all expenses that you incurred such as office expenses, depreciation of computer, mileage etc. In case you have to claim tax credit in the US for taxes paid or deducted in India, you must report the same on form 1116," Vaidya explains.

Rent

If you own a property in India and have given it out on rent, the income from rent will be taxed in the US. Will you have to pay tax on this in India or US?

Enter DTAA! Article 6 of the DTAA provides that rent from immovable property 'maybe' taxed in the country in which the property is situated. So NRIs who are residents of the US would first have to pay tax on rental income in India. While you would still have to declare that income while filing your tax returns in the US, you would get a credit for taxes paid in India.

The term 'maybe' is important here. Unlike salary and contract income that was 'only' taxed in the country of residence, in case of rent, both countries will have the right to tax the income. However, the country in which the property is situated has the first right. So tax will first be paid in India on rental income as per the taxpayer's tax slab in India.

Then the taxpayer must declare the rental income in the US and calculate tax on his total income based on his tax slab in the US. He can take credit in the US on taxes paid in India. What this really means is that even if your tax bracket in India is low, you will be paying tax in the US on your rental income at the tax bracket of the US. If you own property in India and fail to pay tax in India on the rental income but pay tax in the US on that income, you might get into trouble if you are assessed in India.

How to report: Vaidya explains, "You would need to fill up Schedule E of the 1040 in your US tax return. While in India, a flat 30% expenses are allowed as deduction from rental income, in the US only actual expenses maybe deducted. So you would need to deduct expenses such as repairs, maintenance etc on Schedule E. In order to claim tax credit, you would need to fill up form 1116."

Capital gains

Capital gains are the gains you make on sale of assets like property, land, financial assets like shares, mutual funds etc. In India, here is how capital gains are taxed:

Land, property and other physical assets: Gains on sale after 3 years of purchase are taxed as long term capital gains at the rate of 20%. Sale within 3 years is taxed as short term capital gains and included in your total income and taxed at your overall tax slab.

Mutual funds, shares and other financial assets: Gains from equity shares and mutual funds sold after 1 year are tax free. If you sell within a year, the tax is 15% of the capital gain.

In case of debt instruments like debt mutual funds, debentures, gains on sale after 1 year are taxed as long term capital gains. The tax rate is 20% with indexation or 10% without indexation. Sale within 1 year is taxed as short term capital gains and included in your total income and taxed at your overall tax slab.

According to the US law, the time period for long term is 1 year for all assets. Long term capital gains are generally taxed at the rate of 15% while short term gains are added to your total income.

Here's what the DTAA says in terms of capital gains: each Contracting State may tax capital gain in accordance with the provisions of its domestic law.

So if you have capital gains in India, you would first have to pay tax in India on those gains as per the rules in India. You would then have to declare the capital gains in your US tax return and calculate taxes as per US law. Credit of taxes paid in India would be available in the US.

How to report: "You would need to fill up Schedule D of 1040. Form 1116 will allow you to claim foreign tax credit paid, if any," says Vaidya.

Interest and dividends

In India, interest income is added to your total income and taxed according to your overall tax slab. In the US too, interest is added to your total income and taxed thereon.

What DTAA says: Interest arising in a Contracting State and paid to a resident of the other Contracting State 'maybe' taxed in that other State. However, such interest may also be taxed in the Contracting State in which it arises and accordingly to the law of that State, provided that where the resident of the other Contracting State is the beneficial owner of the interest the tax so charged shall not exceed 15 per cent of the gross amount of the interest.

It means that if the interest is earned by an NRI out of deposits in India, TDS will be deducted on the same in India at the lower rate of 15 per cent (as against TDS rate of 30 per cent in absence of any DTAA)

In the US, you would have to add this interest income in your total income and calculate tax thereon. You can claim credit for any taxes paid in India on this income.

Dividends in India are tax free but in the US, dividends are added to your total income and taxed.

So while you will not pay any tax in India on the dividends, you would still need to add this to your total income in the US and calculate tax thereon.

How to report: "Interest and dividends are reported on Schedule B of 1040. Foreign tax credits are reported on form 1116," Vaidya explains.

Agricultural income

Agricultural income in India is tax free but taxed in the US. What this means is that any agricultural income, whether revenue income or capital income such as gains from sale of agricultural land in India will have to be added to your total income in the US and tax paid thereon.

Limits on foreign tax credit

While foreign tax credit can be claimed in the US, there are certain limits. The IRS prescribes a formula in form 1116 which effectively indicates that foreign tax credit should be in the same proportion to the total US tax liability as foreign income is to total income. Consult your CPA for details on these calculations.

State income taxes?

A final word from Vaidya, "The taxes discussed above are with respect to federal income taxes. In the US, each state also levies taxes and the rules vary from state to state. Do consult your CPA for the rules in your state regarding state taxes."

TShyam

February 26th, 2012, 12:42 AM

Brent has crossed $125. Priced in Sterling and Euro, it is at an all time high beating the 2008 highs. No wonder Europe is going into a recession. This is 2008 all over again guys. Only this time it is played out in Europe and the manifestation is Greece (as opposed to the US banks). Thank god we are having a rally in stock markets due to hot money (FII). I am pulling out entirely next week. We may have a bloodbath this year.

karkal

February 26th, 2012, 12:56 AM

^^+1 Agree. Companies in US for this year planning are going only for rolling quarterly budget instead of the regular yearly budget and just concentrating on cost cutting. If Europe goes into double dip recession it will bring down drastically US and China (largest exporter to EU) growth rates along with it.

Ramki830

February 26th, 2012, 02:18 PM

I should say our foreign relations management have come a long way from the naivety of Nehru's era. I guess its the influence of K.Subrahmanyam and his advocacy of realpolitik.

I disagree. Our FRM is as bad today as it was in 1950s. Only difference is we are more dependent on rest of world materially than before. So,even if US threatens to bomb us, we really cant leave Iran,since there is no way we can substitute 10% of our fuel source overnight. Our dependence on oil starts from kitchen (unlike in 1950s or 60s) . (This is not the case in US - even though their economy is oil intensive, oil is market priced so if oil goes up , people drive less and electricity is alternative source to cook/heat)

Ramki830

February 26th, 2012, 02:22 PM

More than US, Israel might do some limited air strikes in Iran during US election time. Israeli lobby is very powerful in US and can getaway with it.

Two thoughts :

1. US/NATO have experience from Ww2 and cold war, they wont strike iran till syria is resolved and till libya gets back to normal (Libya's oil exports are not still back to gaddafi period levels). All noise now is to warn iran to come to table and give up on some things...

2. Though it appears to be like Israel lobby vs Iran , the real players in the conflict are US/Europe and Russia-China.

TShyam

February 29th, 2012, 02:10 PM

Sold 60% of my holdings. I have also written two lots of 5600 call march expiry at 86. Anyone else following similar strategy?

TShyam

February 29th, 2012, 02:13 PM

I disagree. Our FRM is as bad today as it was in 1950s. Only difference is we are more dependent on rest of world materially than before. So,even if US threatens to bomb us, we really cant leave Iran,since there is no way we can substitute 10% of our fuel source overnight. Our dependence on oil starts from kitchen (unlike in 1950s or 60s) . (This is not the case in US - even though their economy is oil intensive, oil is market priced so if oil goes up , people drive less and electricity is alternative source to cook/heat)

US is influenced by neocons sure, but no one is crazy enough to suggest bombing us!

TShyam

March 24th, 2012, 09:35 PM

Sold 60% of my holdings. I have also written two lots of 5600 call march expiry at 86. Anyone else following similar strategy?

Both lots expiring worthless. 8600 profit :D. I also sold 2 more at 55.

So totally this month 14000 profit.

TShyam

March 26th, 2012, 11:18 AM

Sold 8 lots March 5100 PE @ 24.
Very risky bet, lets see how it goes.

TShyam

March 29th, 2012, 12:05 PM

^^ March Expiry @ 5178. 5100 PE expired worthless.

Profit = 9600

Profit for the month = 23600.

Over to April series.

TShyam

April 13th, 2012, 12:05 PM

4 lots May 5500 CE sold @ 82
4 lots May 4800 PE sold @ 39

TShyam

April 19th, 2012, 11:37 PM

4 lots May 4800 PE covered @ 13.25

Profit = 5150

Still holding 4 lots 5500 CE

kongutamizhan

April 20th, 2012, 02:30 AM

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/builders-feel-investor-heat-bite-buyback-bullet/464376/

Approximately 2 month old article

Builders feel investor heat, bite buyback bullet

Thursday was a big payday for Deutsche Bank (DB), which ended its tumultuous relationship with the Mumbai-based Lodha Group. For DB, the exit was a windfall — a neat 55 per cent profit in four years.

Such buybacks are rising. Indian real estate saw 14 such private equity (PE) exits, worth $457 million (around Rs 2,285 crore) in 2011. Of these, promoters bought out existing PEs or other financial sponsors in eight deals, according VCCEdge, the research platform of VCCircle.

Normally, one would assume that increased cash flows were helping these companies give their investors an exit. The Lodhas, for example, funded their buyback partly through internal accruals worth Rs 1,720 crore and via fresh fund raising of Rs 825 crore.

So, are companies turning around? Are cash flows back on track? Quite the contrary, say consultants and analysts.

For many of them, it’s actually becoming a double whammy. To start with, sales growth is still weak. What’s worse is that many are facing irrate financial investors tightening the noose around them.

“There are two types of exits — first, out of compulsion, wherein developers arrange funds before the investors exercise ‘put option’ and levy heavy penalty; and, second, they exit after the project is sold off,” says Vijay Wadhwa, promoter of Wadhwa group which gave exits to US-based bank Wachovia in two of its projects in 2009.

Given the state of the property market, the first type of exits are gaining ground.

“Developers do not have many options. At a time when property markets have stagnated in key cities, not much new money is flowing into real estate and big investors have exhausted their money,” says Ambar Maheshwari, managing director, corporate finance, Jones Lang LaSalle, a property consultant.

According to PropEquity, a real estate research and analytics company, absorption of homes in the national capital region has come down by 53 per cent. And, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region saw a decline of 57 per cent in 2011 from 2010 figures. The PE investors, too, have figured out ways to extract their pound of flesh and are either reworking contracts or making water-tight ones afresh, leaving very little flexibility to these realtors.

“The exits are part of the contract and the realtor has no option but to buy it back, given the pressure from investors on the PE funds,” says Amit Goenka, national director, Knight Frank, a global property consultant.

There’s an added pressure point for developers from PE players, if the lifespan of their funds is coming to an end. Then, it becomes tough to roll over the investment and cashing out at a pre-agreed internal rate of return remains the only way out.

A host of funds raised by fund houses such as Kotak, IL&FS, Indiareit and HDFC have exited their investments and are looking at exits. This is because they raised funds between 2005 and 2007, and, these funds normally carry a life span of five to eight years. “Developers are under pressure to give exits and are also under obligation to show track record by giving exits to investors,” Maheshwari says. According to consultants, developers are, therefore, borrowing at steep rates, of more than 22 per cent, from non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and other investors, to give exits to PEs.

According to JLL, the NBFC funding rates have shot up to 19-22 per cent in 2011. And, with over 20 active players, NBFCs are the principal means of finance for buybacks.

“Today, the cost of private equity is definitely higher than that of debt. If you are sure the value of the equity is higher than what I am paying for (in a buyout from PE), you go ahead,” said a spokesperson of Rustomjee, which gave exits to UK-based Trinity Capital in three of its projects last year. The total value of the exits is around $ 45 million.

According to sources, a prominent developer in the national capital region took loans from NBFCs at 24 per cent to give exits to PE funds last year.

A year before, in another transaction, a Mumbai-based developer raised funds through NCDs carrying coupon of 12 per cent and preferred returns of another 9 per cent from a financial services company to give exits to a US-based fund in two of its project in 2010.

This, many analysts fear, is further stretching companies’ balance sheets.

In September 2007, DB invested Rs 1,640 crore by subscribing to optionally convertible debentures (OCDs) of Mumbai-based Cowtown Land Development, which houses Lodha Group’s flagship projects, including upscale Bellisimo in Mahalaxmi in central Mumbai, Lodha Aqua in the Mumbai suburbs and other land parcel in the central suburbs.

DB, too, had tightened the screws around Lodhas. According to the IPO prospectus filed by Lodha Developers more than two years ago, the group had to repay DB by December 2010. In case of a default on the interest amount, the bank had the right to convert its investment into as much as 99 per cent equity stake in Cowtown.

The relationship between the two had its fair share of ups and downs until both reached an agreement for repayment of the investment amount. The deal required Lodhas to pay a minimum interest rate of 13.65 per cent, which could have gone up to 22.50 per cent if market conditions improved.

The company’s management, however, disagrees. “Our ability to generate positive cash flows from our business by focusing on execution and end-user sales has enabled us to make such a large payment at a time when the general economic environment is quite tough,” said Lodha Group Deputy Managing Director Abhinandan Lodha.

PE investors, however, are still open to making fresh investments. Blackstone, for example, bought out a Pune IT Park from DLF for Rs 800 crore in January.

“The interest of investors is back. Global investors such as Blackstone and other sovereign funds are keen to invest in yield-generating assets. This makes exit easier for the initial PE/VC investors in Indian realty,” says HDFC Property Ventures Managing Director K G Krishnamurthy.

Secondary deals involving two funds are also gaining traction. Last year, HDFC Property Ventures exited its five-year-old stake in an SEZ promoted by Embassy Property Developments, selling stake to Blackstone for $119 million.

madurakarenda

April 23rd, 2012, 10:06 AM

''ஈமு கோழிகளில் முதலீடு செய்யாதீர்கள்!''
-சேலம் மாவட்ட நிர்வாகம் அறிவிப்பு

'ஈமு வளர்த்தால் குபேரனாகலாம்' என்றபடி மக்களிடம் ஒரு லட்ச ரூபாயை வாங்கிக் கொண்டு, மாதம்தோறும் 6 ஆயிரம், 10 ஆயிரம், 11 ஆயிரம் என விதம்விதமாக ரிட்டர்ன் தருவதாக புற்றீசல் போல பல கம்பெனிகள் புறப்பட்டுக் கொண்டே இருக்கின்றன. குறிப்பாக, ஈரோடு மற்றும் சேலம் பகுதிகளில் ஏகப்பட்ட கம்பெனிகள் முளைத்துள்ளன.

அதேசமயம், 'இது மக்களை ஏமாற்றும் வேலை' என்று ஈமு வளர்ப்புக்கு எதிராக விவசாயிகள் சங்க பிரநிதிகள் முழங்கிக் கொண்டுள்ளனர்.

'மாதம் 10 ஆயிரம், 11 ஆயிரம் என்பதெல்லாம் கிட்டத்தட்ட 120%, 130% அளவுக்கான வருமானம். கள்ள நோட்டு அடித்தால்கூட இந்த அளவுக்கு லாபம் கிடைக்காது. அப்படியிருக்க, ஈமுவை வளர்க்காமலேயே, இப்படியெல்லாம் லாபம் கொடுப்பதாக சொல்வது, கேழ்வரகில் அல்ல... கல்லில் நெய் வடிகிறது என்ற சொல்வதற்கு சமம்.

95, ௯௬-ம் ஆண்டுகளில் பணத்தைச் சுருட்டிக் கொண்டு ஓட்டமெடுத்த ஃபைனான்ஸ் கம்பெனிகள் கதையாக இந்த ஈமு கம்பெனிகள் ஓட்டமெடுத்துவிடும். எனவே, அரசாங்கம் இந்த விஷயத்தில் விவசாயிகளுக்கு உரிய வழிகாட்டுதலைச் செய்யவேண்டும். ஈமு வளர்ப்பையே தடை செய்ய வேண்டும்' என்றெல்லாம் விவசாயிகளின் பிரதிநிதிகள் சார்பில் கோரிக்கைகள் வைக்கப்பட்டன.
ஆனால், அரசுத்தரப்பிலிருந்து இத்தனை நாட்களாக இது தொடர்பாக எந்த அசைவும் இல்லை.

இந்நிலையில், ஏப்ரல் 20 அன்று சேலம் மாவட்ட ஆட்சியர் அலுவலகத்தில் நடைபெற்ற விவசாயிகள் குறைதீர் கூட்டத்தில், ஈமு வளர்ப்பு தொடர்பான பிரச்னையை விவசாயிகள் எழுப்ப... ''ஈமு வளர்ப்பை கால்நடைத்துறையோ... கால்நடை பல்கலைக்கழகமோ ஆதரிக்கவில்லை. ஈமு வளர்ப்பு லாபகரமானதா என்கிற ஆராய்ச்சியை கால்நடைப் பல்கலைக்கழகம் இன்னமும் முடிக்கவில்லை. எனவே, இப்போதைக்கு ஈமுவில் பணத்தை முதலீடு செய்யாதீர்கள்'' என்று மாவட்ட நிர்வாகம் சார்பிலேயே அறிவிப்பு வெளியிடப்பட்டுள்ளது!

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=293535867388031&set=a.190484021026550.46028.189745421100410&type=1

TShyam

April 27th, 2012, 10:31 AM

2 lots May 5500 CE covered @ 16.
Profit = 6600

10 lots April 5100 puts sold on 23rd April @ 15.75
Expired worthless yesterday
Profit = 7875

Still having 2 more lots short May 5500 call.

TShyam

April 30th, 2012, 02:59 AM

Rupee cracks 52 to a dollar. May reach 56 within this year.

TShyam

April 30th, 2012, 12:01 PM

Sold 4 lots Dec 4500 PE @ 101.30

karkal

April 30th, 2012, 02:39 PM

Rupee cracks 52 to a dollar. May reach 56 within this year.

It is only going to overheat Chennai RE market which is already going through the roof.

TShyam

April 30th, 2012, 04:34 PM

It is only going to overheat Chennai RE market which is already going through the roof.

I think Mumbai is far more overheated than Chennai. And a 10% fall in Rupee wont make much of a difference. My regret is that RBI is not allowing currency trading. There is opportunity to make tons of money.

krishnaswamy

April 30th, 2012, 07:46 PM

It is only going to overheat Chennai RE market which is already going through the roof.
you mean to say, that RE prices will go up?

karkal

April 30th, 2012, 08:57 PM

you mean to say, that RE prices will go up?

Yes, especially if the rupee depreciates to 60 as some predict.

krishnaswamy

April 30th, 2012, 09:27 PM

Yes, especially if the rupee depreciates to 60 as some predict.
common who has predicted for 60.. it is predicted for 56 only..

karkal

April 30th, 2012, 10:05 PM

common who has predicted for 60.. it is predicted for 56 only..

56 is just the first step...there are many in the money/stock market who want the Rs to be at 55-60 level.

TShyam

April 30th, 2012, 10:42 PM

56 is just the first step...there are many in the money/stock market who want the Rs to be at 55-60 level.

Yes! 56 is just my conservative prediction. Sort of like a high probability event. The fundamentals are so weak for the rupee that I wont be surprised if it goes off by another 4-5 points.

It would be better if RBI starts building some forex reserves and depreciating the currency smoothly till about 56 -57 right now rather than waiting for some crisis (say the euro crisis, middle east crisis) to blow up. Under those conditions, a sudden outflow of hot money/return to the safety of the dollar can cause violent movements in the exchange rate like how it happened in 2007-2008 (rupee moved from 37 to 45 in a matter of few months) catching both importers and exporters off guard.

Alphastallion

May 1st, 2012, 01:36 AM

I dont kknow put this question still cpuntry like britain has pound values over the roof ..that they are not having much resources as united states..
Even if u compare Japnese yen they have /had a huge manufacturing expertise..UK with its banking and finance alone can have good value on pound..pls somebody clear my doubt..if that case rupee should have very good stable values as the fundamendals ares strong because of PSUs..

karkal

May 2nd, 2012, 06:42 PM

Homes become more affordable in last 10 years (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/realty-trends/Homes-become-more-affordable-in-last-10-years/articleshow/12959211.cms?adcode=13)

MUMBAI: Real estate prices in metros such as Mumbai may be at a record high. But, on an average, homes across the country are more affordable than they were five or even ten years ago.

According to an analysis of HDFC data, the average cost of a house purchased by its borrowers was Rs 12 lakh in the year 2002. Over the years, the average amount paid for a house (by HDFC borrowers) rose to Rs 40 lakh in 2011.

But salaries have risen faster. The same period saw the average borrower's salary rise from Rs 2.45 lakh to Rs 8.3 lakh. As a result, affordability - measured by the home price as a multiple of annual salary - has improved .

The borrower, who on an average needed 5.1 times his annual salary to buy a house in 2002, needed only 4.8 times his annual salary in 2011.

The affordability figure is a national average and over the years HDFC's borrower profile has also changed with more loans being disbursed in smaller cities. However, the long-term trend in affordability holds true for most cities because of high levels of income growth in the first decade of the 21century. The country's per capita income has tripled from Rs 19,040 in 2002-03 to Rs 53,331 in 2010-11 .

The increase in affordability would mean that housing and housing loans will continue to grow in coming years. Considering that there is a housing shortage of 26 million housing units according to Jones Lang Lasalle, the potential will last for some time.
If affordability has improved for home purchase, it is has jumped for rentals. "Around 2001-02, a one-bedroom apartment in Andheri costing Rs 22 lakh would fetch a rent of Rs 8,000 to Rs 9,000. Today, the market value of the same apartment is over Rs 1 crore, but the rental income is at best Rs 25,000. Rentals have not kept pace with house prices," says Deepak Mehta, a Mumbai-based real estate broker who specializes in the suburb of Andheri.

Incidentally, the golden period for buying property was the year 2004 when, on an average, the HDFC borrower paid the equivalent of 4.3 years of his prevailing salary for buying a house. It was at this time that borrowers got full benefit of tax breaks because of larger loans and interest rates started dropping.

Internationally, rentals up to 25% of income are considered affordable. However, this would vary depending on how much of the income is left over after providing for basic necessities.

"Monthly rentals in Mumbai are in the range of 22 to 25 basis points of the property value," says Mehta. According to real estate developers, one of the reasons for high prices in Mumbai is the freeze on supply. According to Vyomesh Shah, MD, Hubtown, high prices in Mumbai are largely because of the constraints on supply.

"Today, even in a city like Ahmedabad, there are projects where you can get apartments where the rate per square foot is around Rs 2,500" says Shah.

TShyam

May 4th, 2012, 02:23 PM

Covered the remaining 2 lots of May 5500 CE @ 9.

Profit - 7300.

Initiated short positions in May 4900 PE @ 40 (4 lots).

kongutamizhan

May 22nd, 2012, 09:46 PM

Marketwatch rips BRICS funds

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/building-with-brics-etfs-in-the-second-half-2012-05-21

krishnaswamy

May 22nd, 2012, 10:28 PM

is the Indian Economy or TN Economy grown rapidly in the last 6 months to accomadate 10% hike in Petrol Price?

madurakarenda

May 24th, 2012, 06:17 AM

is the Indian Economy or TN Economy grown rapidly in the last 6 months to accomadate 10% hike in Petrol Price?

Not both. UPA guys' selavuku kaasu pathala. Their expenses is not going be over even in this 10% hike. Watch out for more. Stay tuned. :lol:

desiyogi

May 24th, 2012, 06:22 AM

Does anyone here indulge in a little forex trading?
Or own stocks of foreign corporations?

kongutamizhan

May 24th, 2012, 03:27 PM

Does anyone here indulge in a little forex trading?
Or own stocks of foreign corporations?

What information exactly are you looking for?

desiyogi

May 25th, 2012, 02:57 AM

What information exactly are you looking for?

Not looking for anything specific but just general info on what foreign stocks Indian residents consider worth buying.(or are Gold stocks considered more of the standard stable investment)

darkprinz

May 25th, 2012, 04:56 AM

I dont even know A B C D of stock market ... :lol: but interested to learn these things and invest ... Can anyone help me on the basics ... ?? :)

kongutamizhan

May 25th, 2012, 05:10 AM

desiyogi

May 25th, 2012, 06:56 AM

^^ Where are you trading from? India or US?

I wouldn't advice buying Gold in near-term. $$ will continue to increase owing to Euro crisis and will reduce the demand on Gold. Gold has a support level at $1520s. If it gets broken it can head all way down to 1200 or 1300. I think that's a reasonable price to start adding up on Gold again.

If you are trading from India, try using http://www.interactivebrokers.co.in/en/main.php. It allows you to fund from your Indian account. The taxation may be different. As I have never traded foreign markets using an Indian account I am not sure on that part.

US REITs are better investments. Check the VNQ or T Rowe price's TRREX funds. Good time to buy REITs. You can also think about residential REIT indexes like ITB as the price seem to have stabilized at the bottom. Financial stocks at US are good value too in short-to-medium term

Thank you for this post.Currently an NRI but would probably move back to India in a few years.Though looking at the way things are running with the present government i would probably want to remain an NRI.
It's strange that the stock brokers themselves recommend developing country mixed funds as an investment compared to more of US stocks as the economy here is on a downturn.But as of now it seems like it's bad news all over.China bubble,Euro crisis and rising prices in India.
I was strongly advised to avoid buying stocks in the recent Facebook IPO.
Judging by your posts you seem to be a financial guru.(or well read in financial matters) :)

jaish

May 25th, 2012, 01:40 PM

I have a doubt, is it not in current stock market every one gainer there is minimum three losers. How come Facebook has got a value of billion dollars?When they are not producing or adding any value? How come reliance Power is 10K crore company? When they are not having any Power plant to their credit?

kongutamizhan

May 25th, 2012, 04:44 PM

I have a doubt, is it not in current stock market every one gainer there is minimum three losers.

Roughly speaking yes, but it also depends if the market is bullish or bearish and the time-line/range that you are talking about

How come Facebook has got a value of billion dollars?When they are not producing or adding any value? How come reliance Power is 10K crore company? When they are not having any Power plant to their credit?

Valuation is complex. You have to read several concepts and methodology that goes behind a valuation. There is a reason why hedge fund managers and analysts at morningstar are paid more :) Analysts value stocks and bonds using CAPM model as base. With technology many models like this (https://www.russelletfs.com/documents/whitepapers/Russell_Factor_ETFs_An_Inside_Look.pdf) have evolved but CAPM still remains GOLD standard.

In a nutshell this is what it is. Stocks are valued by

1) Current market price (OR closed end price for companies that are not pulic yet) divided by their earnings. This is called P/E ratio. Technically lower the PE the better because it indicates that market still has room for growth. Remember no one can outdo the market for ever (with exception of microsoft in 90s). But this lower PE is good thinking is not always true. Why? because of 2

2) Traditional P/E ratios you see in yahoo/google/msn finance are ttm (trailing twelve months). At the risk of sounding like a hedge fund advertising company "Past performance doesn't always indicate future results". So you have to take into account the earnings potential for forward 12 months as well.

3) Then comes PE ratio's little brother price-to-sales or PS ratio. If PS ratio is more than 1 then it means that the company is doing better. But you got to be cautious when sales per share gets closer to or more than three times its pricing. If sales is 3X it can indicate a bubble. In other words this ratio says that your sales cannot be more than 3 times your worth without adding more to your worth by reinvesting on the company and making your worth bigger. Does it again mean that companies that trade with more than 3x their worth are always bad? Again not necessarily :D Then comes #4. If market volatality is the only reason for high PS value then you don't have to worry about PS > 3x. Keep an eye on volatality index.

4) Factors (commonly refered as risk-factors). Check the value of beta, volatality and momentum. Beta is a huge risk than the other two. Beta is a particular security's risk compared to the market. Read the russell article for more information on beta and why it is huge than the others. Beta risks are not diversifiable, meaning if beta is high you have to get out of that stock as quickly as possible.

Having said all this, compare the P/E ratio of facebook and take its sector PE and compare it against its competitors like say Google. FB's PE is around 100+ and for google it is 18. Earnings per share (EPS) for google is approx 33 and facebook is 32cents / share. By looking at this one can easily say why FB is over valued (please remember that PE of 101 is at current market price. When IPO was fixed at 38 PE would have been even more at that price). But like I said PE based on ttm is not everything. Facebook is expected to make money on advertising. There are billions of people in FB and there is a huge advertising market in FB. So analysts future EPS for FB is more than Google (per share value)

Nevertheless even with all this FB is still overvalued when you compare it with the sector's and competitors factors and estimates. That showed up in market (which is why market corrected it at the first place)

kongutamizhan

May 25th, 2012, 05:00 PM

Judging by your posts you seem to be a financial guru.(or well read in financial matters) :)

Well not really. I read more and it takes months to get rid of junk shits from my readings out of my head and stay focused with discipline on my financial goals. I easily get swayed by several articles, which I should be consuming for entertainment purpose only. In other words I take eye off my focus and still far far way from being a guru. So drink 8 cups of water daily from a nearby ocean before taking up my advice.

China bubble,Euro crisis and rising prices in India.
I was strongly advised to avoid buying stocks in the recent Facebook IPO.

China is not as bad as it is projected

http://www.economist.com/node/21555915

kdkd

May 25th, 2012, 05:26 PM

When it comes to investing and trading, never take up advice from anyone as-is. listen to the advice, and then do your own due diligence. else the market will suck all you hard earned money.

Well not really. I read more and it takes months to get rid of junk shits from my readings out of my head and stay focused with discipline on my financial goals. I easily get swayed by several articles, which I should be consuming for entertainment purpose only. In other words I take eye off my focus and still far far way from being a guru. So drink 8 cups of water daily from a nearby ocean before taking up my advice.

China is not as bad as it is projected

http://www.economist.com/node/21555915

kongutamizhan

May 25th, 2012, 05:39 PM

When it comes to investing and trading, never take up advice from anyone as-is. listen to the advice, and then do your own due diligence. else the market will suck all you hard earned money.

+1 true that.

Have been bitten more than once based on the so-called expert advices. Now I do my own valuation and stick to bogglehead principles by creating a system of what I think works for me. For most part I stopped hearing to advices from barrons/smartmoney etc., and just gauge the trend from AAII/economist and take my own stand. For the past 2 years or so I think I am more disciplined and results are showing upto some extent (my wife will disagree)

jaish

May 25th, 2012, 07:10 PM

KT,

I feel nexus of bankers, Fund managers & So called crook promoters really rocks the bottom. Good medcine for present global econnomical condition handle all this white collor criminals with iron hand to revive real capitalism that encourages innovativeness. There are so many rajus out there, send them to their rightfull places.

kongutamizhan

May 28th, 2012, 07:54 PM

Folks, need help. Any experience with Kotak Mahindra NRI investment products?

This is for my cousin. He is particularly interested about their cost and service. I have no experience with them and hence asking here. Couldn't fine much review online either about their NRI services

http://nri.kotak.com/Kotak_BankSite/nri/

TShyam

June 1st, 2012, 10:33 AM

Covered the remaining 2 lots of May 5500 CE @ 9.

Profit - 7300.

Initiated short positions in May 4900 PE @ 40 (4 lots).

May 4900 PE expired worthless (geez! that was a close call)

Profit - 8000.

Rupee cracks 52 to a dollar. May reach 56 within this year.

Yes! 56 is just my conservative prediction. Sort of like a high probability event. The fundamentals are so weak for the rupee that I wont be surprised if it goes off by another 4-5 points.

It would be better if RBI starts building some forex reserves and depreciating the currency smoothly till about 56 -57 right now rather than waiting for some crisis (say the euro crisis, middle east crisis) to blow up. Under those conditions, a sudden outflow of hot money/return to the safety of the dollar can cause violent movements in the exchange rate like how it happened in 2007-2008 (rupee moved from 37 to 45 in a matter of few months) catching both importers and exporters off guard.

Rupee has already breached 56. The fall in rupee has been relentless and ferocious. What I expected will happen by the end of the year happened within a matter of 5 weeks. It may stabilize now or can even bounce a bit but the medium term trend remains down. Another 8-10% fall (to >60 range) cannot be ruled out this year. Will have to wait for the trade data to have a better picture.

jaish

June 1st, 2012, 03:14 PM

What are all factors that forces rupees to retreat?

kongutamizhan

June 1st, 2012, 03:20 PM

@ dollar value

RBI's hands are tied. They cut interest 11 or 12 times between 2010 april to now with limited or no success. In fact that seems to be the only strategy they use. Feds across the world use it as a last resort. Anyways the government and RBI has more important thing to address

http://investorsareidiots.com/2012/05/gdp-growth-fall-places-additional-burden-on-rbi/
------------------------------------------------------

http://investorsareidiots.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Screen-shot-2012-05-31-at-1.22.56-PM.png.

RBI will have to address growth in a non disruptive manner

Arjun Parthasarathy Published: 31st May 2012

It is true that the RBI has to address the GDP growth fall but it will have to be allowed to do so in a manner that is not disruptive.

The sharp fall in fourth quarter GDP growth to 5.3% against market expectations of 6.1% places an additional burden on the RBI. RBI is fighting inflation, Rupee, liquidity and government borrowing and a below trend GDP growth has all and sundry clamouring for the RBI to ease monetary policy. The fact is that RBI cannot just focus on easing policy to raise GDP growth expectations. Every action of the RBI will have an effect on one macro factor or the other and RBI has to do a fine balancing act. Hence it is advisable to stay off RBI and let its do its job.

The factors RBI has to worry about are a) Inflation, which is trending at 7.23% as of April 2012 and is above RBI’s comfort zone of 6.5% and below b) Rupee falling to a record low against the US Dollar. The Rupee fell to all time lows of Rs 56.40 against the USD on the back of worries over Eurozone debt crisis and domestic growth c) Liquidity that continues to be in deficit mode with banks borrowing around Rs 100,000 crores from the RBI on a daily average basis despite RBI bond buying of around Rs 50,000 crores April 2012 to date and d) Government borrowing with weekly government bond auctions of Rs 15,000 crores in an environment of tight liquidity and a weakening Rupee.

RBI now has one more worry and that is raising India’s GDP growth rate. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2011-12 at 5.3% lowers the full year 2011-12 GDP growth to 6.5% against government estimates of 6.9% growth. The 5.3% GDP growth rate is the lowest in nine years. The forecast GDP growth rate of 7.6% for 2012-13 is under a cloud given the low GDP growth rate.

The government’s hands are completely tied and cannot do anything about the fall in growth. The government is fighting to keep its borrowing down (it is borrowing a record amount of Rs 479,000 crores in fiscal 2012-13). It is unable to bring down its subsidy bill and is facing a huge backlash on freeing petrol prices. Topping it all is the fall in the Indian Rupee (INR) to record lows of below Rs 56 to the US Dollar (USD).

A fiscal stimulus is out of question as bond markets cannot digest additional borrowing. Ten year benchmark bond yields trended to calendar year 2012 highs of 8.70% at the beginning of the fiscal year on the back of worries of supply absorption before falling back to 8.50% levels on the back of RBI bond purchases.

What can the RBI do in the face of falling growth expectations. The central bank can ease the benchmark policy rate the repo rate, which is at 8% at present. However easing of the repo rate can place further pressure on the Rupee as lower policy rates reduces interest rate differentials with the US Dollar leading to Rupee interest rates becoming less attractive for USD flows.

RBI can add liquidity into the system by cutting CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) from current levels of 4.75%. CRR cut of 100bps will only add Rs 60,000 crores into the system, which is not enough to stabilise system liquidity that is in deficit of Rs 100,000 crores. RBI is buying government bonds to ease liquidity and can buy more bonds but unchecked bond purchases by the central bank have consequences on inflation as well as on the fiscal deficit. The government can use RBI as an excuse to borrow and spend more and a weakening fiscal deficit will only help weaken the Rupee.

ThoughtomatioN

June 1st, 2012, 05:13 PM

kongutamizhan

June 1st, 2012, 06:19 PM

^^ yep you are right, they just cut it recently in April. I don't know what I was confused with when I wrote it

TShyam

June 2nd, 2012, 09:24 AM

What are all factors that forces rupees to retreat?

The biggest factor is current account deficit. We import nearly $200 billion worth of goods more than we export and that is weighing on the rupee (at the end of the day, currency is a commodity too and is subjected to demand and supply fundamentals). But right now, the global environment is such that all the currencies are falling (relative to the $) and particularly the emerging market currencies are hard hit.

There is a sell everything wave across the globe. Commodities (including gold and oil) are falling, currencies are falling, stock markets are falling and hence unsurprisingly rupee is falling too. But that trend is exacerbated by our CAD. I feel things will get better broadly around 58-60 (Indian exports particularly IT will become incredibly competitive). Crude has fallen >20% and that is already a positive. I think the latest quarter GDP growth reading of 5.3% will be the lowest before we will see a rebound. Although government's hand is largely tied, they should deregulate diesel, LPG and kerosine prices. That will force down the consumption of crude and improve CAD.

jaish

June 2nd, 2012, 10:04 AM

Thanks shyam

jaish

June 5th, 2012, 07:07 PM

KT i feel you would agree with me that handle/invest your own money after through research in stock market with out much expectation for longterm would be great mantra. All other investment are just gamble somebody wins, many loses.

kongutamizhan

June 5th, 2012, 07:24 PM

^^ Of-course it is better to take term insurance and invest on your own. But here is the catch, too many factors tags along with it

One has to maintain the disciplined approach (of investing in systematic manner).
Next big thing is not succumbing to emotions.
Third is the ability to gain knowledge of the markets and other commodities / investment vehicles.

All these perfection comes only with dedication, practice and repeated quest for knowledge. But there are few other things that are important in life than chasing money like family, life and kids. That's where I think sometimes you need ULIP like plans (and/or mutual funds). The compulsion of investing every-year in ULIPs or lose a fortune will automatically bring the discipline. And you have the advantage of leaving the market concerns to the experienced fund managers, which of-course come with a fee. There is no free lunch, and you have to give some and take some. Unfortunately there are too many bad products out there too. So at the minimum one should know to identify and separate good apples from the bad. There is nothing wrong in using ULIPs to grow the wealth beyond what bank interests offer.

IRDA regulation is better now that it was few years back. If you had asked me three years back I would have said all ULIP's are junk. But now that's not the case. Industry is changing (except LIC). I see few good products out there that will make sense for majority of the population. What ever investment vehicle one chooses one just have to stick to the ground principle of not having too many eggs in one basket

krishnaswamy

June 5th, 2012, 09:53 PM

RBI abolishes home loan prepayment penalty with immediate effect (http://profit.ndtv.com/News/Article/rbi-abolishes-home-loan-prepayment-penalty-with-immediate-effect-305646?pfrom=home-business)
...
"It has...been decided that banks will not be permitted to charge foreclosure charges/prepayment penalties on home loans on floating interest rate basis, with immediate effect," the Reserve Bank said in a communication to banks.

"Though many banks have in the recent past voluntarily abolished pre-payment penalties on floating rate home loans, there is a need to ensure uniformity across the banking system," it added.

one of the significant and good news for the people who were held up with high rates.
:applause::applause:

kongutamizhan

June 5th, 2012, 10:36 PM

^^ long overdue.

kaasu kattathavanukku write-off, seekirama katturavanukku penalty idhu than namma ooru loan tactics :lol:

kannan infratech

June 6th, 2012, 10:05 AM

^^ long overdue.

kaasu kattathavanukku write-off, seekirama katturavanukku penalty idhu than namma ooru loan tactics :lol:

We had to personally suffer a few times due to this faulty penalty.

Other similar issues - Bulk users are charged more as a punishment.

jaish

June 6th, 2012, 04:08 PM

^^ long overdue.

kaasu kattathavanukku write-off, seekirama katturavanukku penalty idhu than namma ooru loan tactics :lol:

It is not there only in our country. Common problem almost all over ME too.

kongutamizhan

June 11th, 2012, 08:23 PM

About Gold, India, China, bla bla bla

To read more than what is quoted here, follow the link (http://seekingalpha.com/article/650391-putting-the-last-2-weeks-of-gold-market-action-into-proper-perspective)

In India, the gold price recently rose to a record high in rupee terms as the local currency sank to a record low against the U.S. dollar (making the metal more expensive to purchase there) and, when combined with higher import duties and a strike by gold dealers, Indian gold demand remains depressed. The Bombay Bullion Association reported that gold and silver imports fell by 33 percent in April to just $3.1 billion, due primarily to the industry shutdown. Gold imports account for nearly three-quarters of India's trade deficit and the government seems intent on reducing this shortfall, despite having made some concessions recently by rolling back some tax hikes. Gold is said to account for roughly one-third of the typical Indian household's net worth, so, it would seem that the government has a difficult task ahead if it seeks to narrow its trade gap by changing the Indian culture in the way they think about gold.

TShyam

June 21st, 2012, 02:19 PM

Sold 6 lots Jun 5100 Put @ 48.30. Market rallied and I am already having a profit of 9000. Not covering it though. Will wait till expiry to get the remaining 5000 odd rupees too.

TShyam

June 28th, 2012, 11:52 AM

^^ Expired worthless. Profit Rs. 14500.

Sold 4 lots of July 5100 PE @ 86

krishnaswamy

June 28th, 2012, 07:43 PM

Pattaya kilapunga Shyam..

TShyam

June 29th, 2012, 10:21 AM

Thanks :)

Sold 4 lots of July 5300 CE @ 72

krishnaswamy

July 12th, 2012, 06:00 AM

Infosys Q1 poor. cuts the revenue guidance to 5% from 8%. lot of uncertainty in big deals with large corps. today evening TCS result.
Tough year for Indian IT major except CTS so far.

kongutamizhan

July 13th, 2012, 02:54 AM

The Libor Scandal

http://www.economist.com/node/21558579?fsrc=nlw|wwb|7-12-2012|2761803|35042158|
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The fog of LIBOR
LIBOR is badly broken. But for now, a flawed number is better than none

THE furore over alleged manipulation of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and its European cousin, the Euro Interbank Offered Rate (EURIBOR), continues to rage. In Britain, the deputy governor of the Bank of England and the chairman of Barclays were hauled over the coals this week by a parliamentary committee. In America, it emerged that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York may have been informed of alleged manipulation of LIBOR some time after 2007; the Senate Banking Committee plans to look into the affair.

Yet all the while the basic mechanism of LIBOR trundles on. Each morning at 11am in London, submitters at panels of some of the world’s biggest banks send their estimates of borrowing costs in various currencies and for various terms. A few minutes later the benchmark figures flash to life on tens of thousands of traders’ machines around the world, and ripple out into the pricing of loans, derivatives and other financial instruments.

Be generous, and assume that attempts to manipulate LIBOR are in the past. A deeper problem still besets these numbers: they are almost entirely fanciful even if the banks that submit them are providing honest estimates. That is because the unsecured interbank funding market, which is supposed to be where banks borrow from each other, is frozen solid. In the euro area in particular, banks are lending almost no money to one another. Most banks that now have cash prefer to deposit funds at the European Central Bank (ECB), which in turn lends it on to those that are short of it. At the moment banks have more than €800 billion ($980 billion) parked at the ECB, where it earns no interest. LIBOR and EURIBOR measure an activity that barely exists.

Even if markets were functioning properly, some of the banks submitting estimates would struggle to borrow at any interest rate, let alone the one they have been submitting. This problem is starkest for EURIBOR, where individual banks have been submitting rates that are likely to be a good deal lower than the rates they would have to pay in actual transactions. The biggest banks in Italy and Spain generally estimate the cost of borrowing euros for a year at about 1.1%. This rate is much lower than the 4% and 5% their governments (and ultimate guarantors) pay to borrow for the same period.

There is nothing necessarily untoward in this. Unlike LIBOR submitters, EURIBOR banks are not asked to provide estimates of what they think they would have to pay to borrow, merely estimates of what the borrowing rate between two “prime” banks should be. Yet the definition of “prime” is essentially now “German”, leading to a widening disconnect between the actual costs of bank borrowing across most of Europe and the benchmark rates that supposedly reflect them. “The reference to EURIBOR is completely useless for Italian banks,” says Giovanni Sabatini, the managing director of the Italian Banking Association. “EURIBOR is less than 1% and our banks are paying 350-400 basis points above EURIBOR.”

Attempts to improve LIBOR and its equivalents bring fresh problems. Regulators, politicians and industry groups are now poring over ways to improve the calculation of such rates (see Free Exchange). These could include using larger panels of banks and forcing banks to report actual transactions. American authorities have told Barclays to adopt strict governance and reporting rules to ensure its submissions are honest. In isolation each of these changes seems perfectly sensible. Yet in aggregate they pose two big risks.

The first is that banks may simply stop contributing LIBOR estimates to minimise the risks of being prosecuted or sued. Paul Tucker, the Bank of England official up before MPs this week, said contingency planning has already started to deal with this risk. He also raised the possibility that civil lawsuits against banks might be so large as to undermine financial stability.

A second risk is that changes to the method of calculating LIBOR could lead to very different numbers being generated. Much bigger panels would include banks that are smaller and less creditworthy than those currently submitting, leading to higher LIBOR rates. Since these numbers are hard-wired into tens of thousands of derivatives contracts and loan agreements, the losers would almost certainly dispute the changes. “If LIBOR 2 is going to give an answer that is structurally higher than the old LIBOR, then it will be worth litigating over,” says one lawyer. “Each basis point might not seem much, but multiplied across the billions in contracts it soon adds up to a pretty big number.”
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http://www.economist.com/node/21558616

Culture clubbed
A possible winner emerges from the Barclays mess

“I THINK it’s very important that people don’t expect too much from regulation,” said Sir Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, a few days after Barclays bank had paid £290m ($450m) in fines for attempting to rig LIBOR, a benchmark interest rate, between 2005 and 2009. But as Barclays’ chastened chairman, Marcus Agius, was questioned by a parliamentary committee on July 10th, it became clear that regulators are increasingly minded to discipline banks they judge to be poorly managed.

Mr Agius confirmed to MPs that watchdogs had forced Barclays’ chief executive, Bob Diamond, to resign after the bank’s misdeeds became public. On July 2nd Sir Mervyn summoned Mr Agius and his deputy, Sir Michael Rake, to a meeting at which they were told that Mr Diamond had lost the support of the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority (FSA). Sir Mervyn said he had no power to direct Barclays. But Mr Agius realised he had little choice in the matter. He later called at the home of Mr Diamond, who resigned the next day. Barclays’ boss will receive a £2m payoff but will forgo deferred bonuses due to him worth up to £20m.

It is part of City folklore that the central-bank governor can bring financiers into a line by raising his eyebrows. Mr Agius, though a City veteran, was surprised to get the creased-forehead treatment. The FSA is one of the three agencies (the others are American) with which Barclays had co-operated during the probe into LIBOR fixing, which is ongoing and is likely to finger other banks. The regulator said nothing about a loss of faith in Mr Diamond when it published its settlement with Barclays. “We relied on that,” said Mr Agius. The subsequent furore may have surprised the FSA and the Bank of England as much as it did Barclays.

Yet it emerged that regulators have harboured qualms about Barclays for a while. In April Lord Turner, the FSA’s chairman, cited conduct that, while within the rules, was at the “aggressive end of interpretation”. Barclays gave “the confusing and potentially misleading impression” of its capital strength when regulators carried out stress tests of big European banks. It badgered FSA staff after they had refused to permit it to reclassify assets in a way that would allow it to hold less regulatory capital. As Mr Agius summarised Lord Turner’s criticisms: “We overdid it”.

Lord Turner, who is due to testify in front of MPs on July 16th, may be one of the few people to come out of the LIBOR drama with his reputation burnished. The documents suggest he is prepared to shove back if he feels a bank under his charge is pushing its luck. Though seen as too left-wing by some Tories, Lord Turner has ambitions to take over from Sir Mervyn when the governor steps down next June, by which time the bit of the FSA that supervises banks will have been folded into the Bank of England.

His main rival is Paul Tucker, one of Sir Mervyn’s deputies, who appeared in front of MPs the day before Mr Agius. He denied the suggestion (drawn from a note written by Mr Diamond in 2008) that he had nudged Barclays to report lower borrowing rates so as to assuage fears over its finances. Mr Tucker said he had merely advised Mr Diamond to be careful that Barclays’ money-market desk was not unthinkingly sending up “distress flares”. It was Mr Tucker’s job to take the markets’ pulse, but his association with the LIBOR scandal could hurt his chances of becoming Bank governor. By contrast, the sleek Lord Turner can use his upcoming testimony to MPs to polish his credentials.