perthwa
September 10th, 2004, 05:00 AM
Key states lose as jobs go West
THE job market is weakening in NSW and Victoria but growing elsewhere, particularly in Western Australia.
Although the national unemployment rate held steady at 5.7 per cent last month, the total number of jobs slipped by 6600.
Private sector economists had been expecting employment to rise by 25,000, reversing falls in the number of jobs over the past two months.
"This soft patch sits at odds with economic fundamentals," said Commonwealth Bank economist Besa Deda. "We think it is only a matter of time before we see stronger employment growth."
There was a sharp fall in the the level of employment in NSW, with 28,900 jobs being lost. The state's unemployment rate inched up from 5.6 per cent to 5.7 per cent.
BT Financial Group chief economist Chris Caton suggested that the employment weakness in NSW may be responsible for the sharp fall in house prices in the state between April and June.
The unemployment rate in Victoria has reached 6.2 per cent, the highest since June 2002. The number of jobless in the state rose by more than 21,500 last month.
In contrast, the unemployment rate in Western Australia and Queensland fell, with the proportion of people out of work in the West down to 4.8 per cent, the lowest in any state for 14 years.
There has been jobs growth in Queensland every month since February, with the unemployment rate dropping from 6.5 to 5.5 per cent in that time.
There were smaller falls in unemployment in South Australia and Tasmania.
The transient population in the Northern Territory raised unemployment there to 7.4 per cent, while the national capital retained its record of the nation's lowest unemployment rate of 3.6 per cent.
The regional variation in employment will add fuel to the complaints of NSW and Victoria that they are hard done by in the allocation of GST revenues, which favour Queensland and Western Australia.
Although most private sector economists expect renewed jobs growth over coming months, the figures follow weaker-than-expected retail and GDP growth.
This is leading some economists to reconsider their forecasts that the Reserve Bank will lift interest rates as soon as the election is out of the way, regardless of who wins.
Macquarie Bank's Rory Robertson noted that 17 out of 21 economists surveyed by Reuters thought there would be at least one interest rate increase before March.
He said the Reserve Bank did not think a rate rise was needed a month ago, before the election campaign began, and the news that has flowed since then has, if anything, weakened the case.
Mr Caton, who has been among those forecasting an interest rate rise after the election, said this could no longer be assumed to be automatic
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10721666%255E462,00.html
WA leads nation with 4.8pc jobless rate - a 27-year low
WA's unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in 27 years in August, according to official figures released yesterday.
The jobless rate of 4.8 per cent was the lowest among the States and also significantly below the national rate of 5.7 per cent, underlining the strength of the State's economy.
Chamber of Commerce and Industry of WA chief economist Nicky Cusworth said the rate was the lowest since 1977.
"It's certainly an extremely favourable number," she said.
However, she said that the fall in the jobless rate was due more to fewer people in the workforce than strong growth in jobs.
Nonetheless, strong business investment in resources, coupled with robust consumer spending had pulled the State ahead of the rest of the country, she said.
Economists said that the national labour market figures were disappointing, with the number of jobs falling 6600 in August from July.
Although the drop in jobs was not enough to raise the unemployment rate from July's 5.7 per cent, economists had been predicting a drop in the jobless rate amid strong growth in employment.
"The improvement in the labour market has clearly slowed in 2004," National Australia Bank economist Kristina Jawerth said.
However, she also said that forward indicators of the jobs market suggested continued growth in employment.
The disappointing August numbers are not expected to alter the Reserve Bank's view that the economy is strong and probably needsanother interest rate rise.
Treasurer Peter Costello said the unemployment rate was probably about as low as it could get, unless the Labor Opposition backed the coalition's plans to make workplaces more flexible.
"Unemployment, I believe, is probably at the lower end of the cycle," he said in Melbourne.
RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong said monthly job figures tended to swing around, but the overall trend was towards slowing employment growth.
She said this meant that there was no urgency for the Reserve Bank to raise rates, but consumers' strong appetite for credit kept the risk of further modest tightening alive in late 2004.
http://www.thewest.com.au/20040910/news/general/tw-news-general-home-sto129304.html
WA hits another record low jobless rate
Western Australia's unemployment rate has dropped below the five per cent level for the first time in the history of the Labour Force surveys, to a record low of 4.8 per cent.
Monthly data, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today, shows the State's jobless rate has fallen from a revised five per cent for last month to be almost one full per cent below the unchanged national average.
Consumer and Employment Protection Minister John Kobelke said this was WA's lowest-ever unemployment level.
"This is a great result for WA and further evidence of the Gallop Government's effective management of the State's economy," Mr Kobelke said.
The Minister said WA's consistently low unemployment rate confirmed that Labor had provided the industrial and economic climate to create more jobs and opportunities.
"Recent ABS data revealed WA's domestic economy surged by eight per cent in the past financial year - its highest growth rate in six years," he said.
"That growth was boosted by an 18 per cent increase in business investment and a 35.7 per cent increase in public investment."
Mr Kobelke said the ANZ Job series statistics, released this week, also showed that employment advertisements in The West Australian newspaper were now at their highest level in 15 years, which indicated continued confidence by businesses.
"Under the Gallop Government unemployment has been a clear one per cent lower than the monthly averages for the previous State Liberal Government," he said.
THE job market is weakening in NSW and Victoria but growing elsewhere, particularly in Western Australia.
Although the national unemployment rate held steady at 5.7 per cent last month, the total number of jobs slipped by 6600.
Private sector economists had been expecting employment to rise by 25,000, reversing falls in the number of jobs over the past two months.
"This soft patch sits at odds with economic fundamentals," said Commonwealth Bank economist Besa Deda. "We think it is only a matter of time before we see stronger employment growth."
There was a sharp fall in the the level of employment in NSW, with 28,900 jobs being lost. The state's unemployment rate inched up from 5.6 per cent to 5.7 per cent.
BT Financial Group chief economist Chris Caton suggested that the employment weakness in NSW may be responsible for the sharp fall in house prices in the state between April and June.
The unemployment rate in Victoria has reached 6.2 per cent, the highest since June 2002. The number of jobless in the state rose by more than 21,500 last month.
In contrast, the unemployment rate in Western Australia and Queensland fell, with the proportion of people out of work in the West down to 4.8 per cent, the lowest in any state for 14 years.
There has been jobs growth in Queensland every month since February, with the unemployment rate dropping from 6.5 to 5.5 per cent in that time.
There were smaller falls in unemployment in South Australia and Tasmania.
The transient population in the Northern Territory raised unemployment there to 7.4 per cent, while the national capital retained its record of the nation's lowest unemployment rate of 3.6 per cent.
The regional variation in employment will add fuel to the complaints of NSW and Victoria that they are hard done by in the allocation of GST revenues, which favour Queensland and Western Australia.
Although most private sector economists expect renewed jobs growth over coming months, the figures follow weaker-than-expected retail and GDP growth.
This is leading some economists to reconsider their forecasts that the Reserve Bank will lift interest rates as soon as the election is out of the way, regardless of who wins.
Macquarie Bank's Rory Robertson noted that 17 out of 21 economists surveyed by Reuters thought there would be at least one interest rate increase before March.
He said the Reserve Bank did not think a rate rise was needed a month ago, before the election campaign began, and the news that has flowed since then has, if anything, weakened the case.
Mr Caton, who has been among those forecasting an interest rate rise after the election, said this could no longer be assumed to be automatic
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10721666%255E462,00.html
WA leads nation with 4.8pc jobless rate - a 27-year low
WA's unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in 27 years in August, according to official figures released yesterday.
The jobless rate of 4.8 per cent was the lowest among the States and also significantly below the national rate of 5.7 per cent, underlining the strength of the State's economy.
Chamber of Commerce and Industry of WA chief economist Nicky Cusworth said the rate was the lowest since 1977.
"It's certainly an extremely favourable number," she said.
However, she said that the fall in the jobless rate was due more to fewer people in the workforce than strong growth in jobs.
Nonetheless, strong business investment in resources, coupled with robust consumer spending had pulled the State ahead of the rest of the country, she said.
Economists said that the national labour market figures were disappointing, with the number of jobs falling 6600 in August from July.
Although the drop in jobs was not enough to raise the unemployment rate from July's 5.7 per cent, economists had been predicting a drop in the jobless rate amid strong growth in employment.
"The improvement in the labour market has clearly slowed in 2004," National Australia Bank economist Kristina Jawerth said.
However, she also said that forward indicators of the jobs market suggested continued growth in employment.
The disappointing August numbers are not expected to alter the Reserve Bank's view that the economy is strong and probably needsanother interest rate rise.
Treasurer Peter Costello said the unemployment rate was probably about as low as it could get, unless the Labor Opposition backed the coalition's plans to make workplaces more flexible.
"Unemployment, I believe, is probably at the lower end of the cycle," he said in Melbourne.
RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong said monthly job figures tended to swing around, but the overall trend was towards slowing employment growth.
She said this meant that there was no urgency for the Reserve Bank to raise rates, but consumers' strong appetite for credit kept the risk of further modest tightening alive in late 2004.
http://www.thewest.com.au/20040910/news/general/tw-news-general-home-sto129304.html
WA hits another record low jobless rate
Western Australia's unemployment rate has dropped below the five per cent level for the first time in the history of the Labour Force surveys, to a record low of 4.8 per cent.
Monthly data, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today, shows the State's jobless rate has fallen from a revised five per cent for last month to be almost one full per cent below the unchanged national average.
Consumer and Employment Protection Minister John Kobelke said this was WA's lowest-ever unemployment level.
"This is a great result for WA and further evidence of the Gallop Government's effective management of the State's economy," Mr Kobelke said.
The Minister said WA's consistently low unemployment rate confirmed that Labor had provided the industrial and economic climate to create more jobs and opportunities.
"Recent ABS data revealed WA's domestic economy surged by eight per cent in the past financial year - its highest growth rate in six years," he said.
"That growth was boosted by an 18 per cent increase in business investment and a 35.7 per cent increase in public investment."
Mr Kobelke said the ANZ Job series statistics, released this week, also showed that employment advertisements in The West Australian newspaper were now at their highest level in 15 years, which indicated continued confidence by businesses.
"Under the Gallop Government unemployment has been a clear one per cent lower than the monthly averages for the previous State Liberal Government," he said.