View Full Version : Australian Unemployment Rate


perthwa
September 10th, 2004, 05:00 AM
Key states lose as jobs go West
THE job market is weakening in NSW and Victoria but growing elsewhere, particularly in Western Australia.

Although the national unemployment rate held steady at 5.7 per cent last month, the total number of jobs slipped by 6600.

Private sector economists had been expecting employment to rise by 25,000, reversing falls in the number of jobs over the past two months.

"This soft patch sits at odds with economic fundamentals," said Commonwealth Bank economist Besa Deda. "We think it is only a matter of time before we see stronger employment growth."

There was a sharp fall in the the level of employment in NSW, with 28,900 jobs being lost. The state's unemployment rate inched up from 5.6 per cent to 5.7 per cent.

BT Financial Group chief economist Chris Caton suggested that the employment weakness in NSW may be responsible for the sharp fall in house prices in the state between April and June.

The unemployment rate in Victoria has reached 6.2 per cent, the highest since June 2002. The number of jobless in the state rose by more than 21,500 last month.

In contrast, the unemployment rate in Western Australia and Queensland fell, with the proportion of people out of work in the West down to 4.8 per cent, the lowest in any state for 14 years.

There has been jobs growth in Queensland every month since February, with the unemployment rate dropping from 6.5 to 5.5 per cent in that time.

There were smaller falls in unemployment in South Australia and Tasmania.

The transient population in the Northern Territory raised unemployment there to 7.4 per cent, while the national capital retained its record of the nation's lowest unemployment rate of 3.6 per cent.

The regional variation in employment will add fuel to the complaints of NSW and Victoria that they are hard done by in the allocation of GST revenues, which favour Queensland and Western Australia.

Although most private sector economists expect renewed jobs growth over coming months, the figures follow weaker-than-expected retail and GDP growth.

This is leading some economists to reconsider their forecasts that the Reserve Bank will lift interest rates as soon as the election is out of the way, regardless of who wins.

Macquarie Bank's Rory Robertson noted that 17 out of 21 economists surveyed by Reuters thought there would be at least one interest rate increase before March.

He said the Reserve Bank did not think a rate rise was needed a month ago, before the election campaign began, and the news that has flowed since then has, if anything, weakened the case.

Mr Caton, who has been among those forecasting an interest rate rise after the election, said this could no longer be assumed to be automatic
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10721666%255E462,00.html



WA leads nation with 4.8pc jobless rate - a 27-year low
WA's unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in 27 years in August, according to official figures released yesterday.

The jobless rate of 4.8 per cent was the lowest among the States and also significantly below the national rate of 5.7 per cent, underlining the strength of the State's economy.

Chamber of Commerce and Industry of WA chief economist Nicky Cusworth said the rate was the lowest since 1977.

"It's certainly an extremely favourable number," she said.

However, she said that the fall in the jobless rate was due more to fewer people in the workforce than strong growth in jobs.

Nonetheless, strong business investment in resources, coupled with robust consumer spending had pulled the State ahead of the rest of the country, she said.

Economists said that the national labour market figures were disappointing, with the number of jobs falling 6600 in August from July.

Although the drop in jobs was not enough to raise the unemployment rate from July's 5.7 per cent, economists had been predicting a drop in the jobless rate amid strong growth in employment.

"The improvement in the labour market has clearly slowed in 2004," National Australia Bank economist Kristina Jawerth said.

However, she also said that forward indicators of the jobs market suggested continued growth in employment.

The disappointing August numbers are not expected to alter the Reserve Bank's view that the economy is strong and probably needsanother interest rate rise.

Treasurer Peter Costello said the unemployment rate was probably about as low as it could get, unless the Labor Opposition backed the coalition's plans to make workplaces more flexible.

"Unemployment, I believe, is probably at the lower end of the cycle," he said in Melbourne.

RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong said monthly job figures tended to swing around, but the overall trend was towards slowing employment growth.

She said this meant that there was no urgency for the Reserve Bank to raise rates, but consumers' strong appetite for credit kept the risk of further modest tightening alive in late 2004.
http://www.thewest.com.au/20040910/news/general/tw-news-general-home-sto129304.html



WA hits another record low jobless rate
Western Australia's unemployment rate has dropped below the five per cent level for the first time in the history of the Labour Force surveys, to a record low of 4.8 per cent.

Monthly data, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today, shows the State's jobless rate has fallen from a revised five per cent for last month to be almost one full per cent below the unchanged national average.

Consumer and Employment Protection Minister John Kobelke said this was WA's lowest-ever unemployment level.

"This is a great result for WA and further evidence of the Gallop Government's effective management of the State's economy," Mr Kobelke said.

The Minister said WA's consistently low unemployment rate confirmed that Labor had provided the industrial and economic climate to create more jobs and opportunities.

"Recent ABS data revealed WA's domestic economy surged by eight per cent in the past financial year - its highest growth rate in six years," he said.

"That growth was boosted by an 18 per cent increase in business investment and a 35.7 per cent increase in public investment."

Mr Kobelke said the ANZ Job series statistics, released this week, also showed that employment advertisements in The West Australian newspaper were now at their highest level in 15 years, which indicated continued confidence by businesses.

"Under the Gallop Government unemployment has been a clear one per cent lower than the monthly averages for the previous State Liberal Government," he said.

Orfeo
September 10th, 2004, 05:16 AM
It is pretty strange that Victoria is suddenly losing jobs after the ABS released a report saying how good the job climate was ("Victorian Employment up almost 2%" (http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/5f1e01afb32859f9ca25697500217f48/f3b43563ce655018ca256eeb007caa2f!OpenDocument)).

Qld's jobless rate below that of NSW's? Surprising...only a while ago it was above 7%.

MILIUX
September 10th, 2004, 05:53 AM
Orfeo, are the stats seasonal or trend unemployment?

Bond James Bond
September 10th, 2004, 05:59 AM
Maybe some of you've already seen this, but during the course of another debate in SSP I was looking for unemployment rates on google and ran across this - unemployment in Aus since 1900:
http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/110/images/3round-5.gif

jacobsian
September 10th, 2004, 06:04 AM
Maybe some of you've already seen this, but during the course of another debate in SSP I was looking for unemployment rates on google and ran across this - unemployment in Aus since 1900:
http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/110/images/3round-5.gif

So basically, to get any lower we need to start a war with someone.

I choose.. umm...... New Zealand :D

Blend
September 10th, 2004, 06:05 AM
lol yob. i thouhgt the same thing and was gonna post it... but u already good. War is good for unemployment. Maybe thats why howard is so pro war eh... so after the critisism he can say "look at my unemployment ratings!"

Bond James Bond
September 10th, 2004, 07:40 AM
Yeah, but you gotta make sure you WIN the war in order to get that long-term postwar boom. ;)

MILIUX
September 10th, 2004, 08:14 AM
Definition of unemployment changes over time.

Currently the definition goes:

A person who is employed (that is works 1hr a week or more), and are 15 years old or older.

NZer
September 10th, 2004, 08:49 AM
So basically, to get any lower we need to start a war with someone.

I choose.. umm...... New Zealand :D


Sweet,I could leave my real job and say I'm signing up for the army..........and then just go on a holiday for the duration of the war,probably about a week or less for Aus F-111's to wipe out anything of value in NZ.

fandango
September 10th, 2004, 08:25 PM
there's no way the unemployment rate is 4.8 percent. a huge percentage of jobs, and most job growth is in casual/part time work, and most of those people are looking for a proper job. Plus didn't the government offload a bunch of people on the dole, to disability pensions, to clean up the figures?

Billy the Kid
September 11th, 2004, 12:11 AM
Definition of unemployment changes over time.

Currently the definition goes:

A person who is employed (that is works 1hr a week or more), and are 15 years old or older.

That just makes a mockery of the figures IMO.How can someone working 1 hour be looked on as employed? There are tens of thousands working illegaly for cash that dont get counted either so the figures a pretty shonky al round.
The real figure is probabily closer to 10% or even more.

Rock Doctor
September 11th, 2004, 01:29 AM
It will be interseting to see how these figures compare to population growth in the respective cities. As a general rule, falling unemployment rates converts to booming populations.

Speaking for WA, the resource sector here is booming. There is a massive shortage (in skilled workers) in all job sectors relating to mining, resources etc. I work in the mining industry and the amount of Victorians and New South Welshmen moving over here is quite extrordinary!! Considering how much the mining sector influences the economy here in WA I am not suprised by unemployment of 4.8%

Way to Go W.A.!!

MILIUX
September 11th, 2004, 02:02 AM
That just makes a mockery of the figures IMO.How can someone working 1 hour be looked on as employed? There are tens of thousands working illegaly for cash that dont get counted either so the figures a pretty shonky al round.
The real figure is probabily closer to 10% or even more.

The stuff I mentioned is the official definition of unemployment. ABS

Amaruu
September 11th, 2004, 03:34 AM
Figures showing unemployment rates should always be interpreted with caution. It is true, one hour of employment per week constitutes employment, albeit it is under-employment.

You also have to take into account participation rates.

Take this simple example:

A town of 100 people. Of those 100 people, 10 are retired, 10 are full time houswives, 10 are disabled and can not work and 20 people are able to work but refuse to work. That makes 50 people in the town who are not counted as participating in the work force. Therefore the actual number to be counted in the town's work force is the remaining 50%. Of this remaining 50 per cent, 30 have full time jobs and 15 work one hour per week. That means officially, 45 out of the 50 people in the workforce all have jobs, which means the unemplyment rate is 10%. I learnt all this stuff when I did economics at uni. The breakdown of the above is as follows:

Town Population: 100

Less: Those not working to either laziness, retirement, housework or disability: 50

Equals Workforce: 50

Less: those employed in full time work: 30
Less: those employed 1 hour per week: 15
Equals: total people employed = 45

Which therefore equals those officially unemployed at 5.

And there you have your 10% unemployment rate or whatever the rate may be.

Randwicked
September 11th, 2004, 03:50 AM
Yeah, but you gotta make sure you WIN the war in order to get that long-term postwar boom. ;)

Not true...look at post-war Germany and Japan!

Bond James Bond
September 11th, 2004, 04:32 AM
Not true...look at post-war Germany and Japan!
Yeah, but that was cheating. They got lots of money from the Marshall Plan.

However if you're going to invade NZ I don't suppose you'd have to worry about all this anyway. Victory would be, like, guaranteed. :D

perthwa
September 11th, 2004, 07:08 AM
I also read Western Australia's Participation Rate is growing strongly too, but judging on the amount of bogans hanging around the place everyday Perth still needs to get alot of people in jobs :D

JayT
September 12th, 2004, 11:57 AM
national unemployment rate 5.7 per cent

ACT 3.6%
Western Australia 4.8%
Queensland , 5.5 %
NSW, 5.7 %
Victoria 6.2%
South Australia 6.2%
Northern Territory 7.4%

(could not find Tasmanian figures)

There was an article in the paper yesterday about an imminant migrations increase to Queensland because of many factors - including employment. They were talking about a population BOOM - as if we haven't already been having one!
Aparently the state single handly produced over 45% of Australias new jobs - pretty good for one state!!!

jt

Randwicked
September 12th, 2004, 01:07 PM
Yeah, but that was cheating. They got lots of money from the Marshall Plan.

However if you're going to invade NZ I don't suppose you'd have to worry about all this anyway. Victory would be, like, guaranteed. :D

Well we just need to invade someone who will beat us so solidly they have to rebuild us...

Bond James Bond
September 13th, 2004, 05:40 AM
^Then invade the US!! That's a guaranteed loss!!

And anyway, Dubya's always looking for nations to pick on. Might as well go to war with the Aussies next. :)

JayT
September 14th, 2004, 04:16 AM
It is pretty strange that Victoria is suddenly losing jobs after the ABS released a report saying how good the job climate was ("Victorian Employment up almost 2%" (http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/5f1e01afb32859f9ca25697500217f48/f3b43563ce655018ca256eeb007caa2f!OpenDocument)).

Qld's jobless rate below that of NSW's? Surprising...only a while ago it was above 7%.

The economy could be swinging back to favor WA and Qld again. For much of last decade Qld and WA had lower unemployment than Vic and NSW. Looks like things are starting to boom once again. We didn't even have a bust technically - things just keep getting better:)

Was walking though the Valley this morning and there were heaps of boutiques, shops and restaurants that had "Help Wanted" signes in the windows.
Looks like the employment crisis isn't just effecting the construction industry.

jt

NZer
September 15th, 2004, 01:15 PM
^Then invade the US!! That's a guaranteed loss!!

And anyway, Dubya's always looking for nations to pick on. Might as well go to war with the Aussies next. :)


Invade!!......are you serious?!! why go to all the trouble of invading when all I need is a towel and a box cutter to fuck you up!!

Aussie Bhoy
September 15th, 2004, 01:34 PM
there's no way the unemployment rate is 4.8 percent. a huge percentage of jobs, and most job growth is in casual/part time work, and most of those people are looking for a proper job. Plus didn't the government offload a bunch of people on the dole, to disability pensions, to clean up the figures?

The UK government just come under the spotlight for doing the same thing over here. There are thousands of people who are encouraged to claim disability pensions rather than unemployed. Doctors are signing people off work for the most dubious things (stress, etc).

It all helps the employment rate figured look better. They should measure people in work as a percentage, rather than unemployed, or add unemployed to benefits claimers.