I thought this would be an interesting time to talk about the economies of each province seeing it's budget season and most governments are trying to get themselves in order after the recession.

Here's RBC's provincial outlook for March 2011:

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf

And here's an interesting report done by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business titled: "Restoring Canada’s Fiscal Fitness Tools to reform government spending"

http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/cfib-documents/rr3218.pdf

Big time PPC (potential pissing contest). Keep it real please ,folks :)

The North! ;)

I think the frontrunners would be Alberta & Saskatchewan. Newfoundland still has too much unemployment and population loss. BC will probably be relatively stable.

Alberta, followed by the North.

I vote Alberta and North.

According to that CFIB Alberta is in bad fiscal shape, I'd say Saskatchewan will do better then them.

Scotia Bank's CEO, I think it was their CEO, was in St. John's a few months ago and when asked who'd have the best economy over the next few years he said it was between Saskatchewan, Alberta, BC and Newfoundland and Labrador.

I voted Manitoba.
It is Western Canada's most diversified economy, solid and increasing population growth, and massive hydro potential.

One also has to remember that high oil prices are oil's own worse enemy. They can be a huge boon to the economy over the short and medium term and certainly help the government coffers but high prices also leads to lower demand.
The higher the price of oil becomes the more impetus and political pressure there is to look for alternatives.
Whether it's the US, Canada, EU, or BRIC, inflation is a deadly worry and much more so on countries that have heavy oil use. Not only will high prices result in lower demand but also result in more and more effective alternatives. Right now we have many potential alternatives but oil still rules due to political influence and the fact that it's cheap. As oil prices soar the relative cost savings over electric vehicles decline. People will continue to purchase their regular cars over the Chevy Volt because it's $20,000 cheaper to buy and due to oil is still relatively cheap to run. As oil prices soar the yearly costs of running your car balloon and the the difference in purchase price is quickly evaporated due to very high running costs. This will also lead to further development of better and lighter batteries and higher electric vehicle production which will bring down the price of the vehicle.
Oil is great but it's biggest enemy is it's own success.
Hydro is clean and electricity is the future of all transportation, communication, and basically our personal lives and national economy and that is Manitoba's diamond in the rough and Alberta's archiiles heel.

Also BC's economy will continue to do OK but only on paper.
The income levels are very low considering the extremely high cost of housing but also BCers are going broke...............literally.
Nationwide the average savings rate is about 2.5% in 2010 and 2011 except BC. BC is the only province in the country that will have a negative savings rate and it's a staggering 4% a year. This is not just a one time thing...BC has had a negative savings rate for every year over the past decade. When interest rates rise which they will have to because they are already rock bottom it will be in BC where the real blood will start to flow. Higher mortgage. credit card, personal, auto loans......all will have a huge impact on people's budgets. It will profoundly cut into discretionary spending and will result in many personal bankruptcies. The middle class are the ones who drive economic growth and BC already has the smallest in the country and as interest rates the already small middle class will shrink even more.
Economies based on building houses is not sustainable and I strongly believe that BC is Canada's Arizona, Nevada, and Florida only with worse weather.

hard to predict, but maybe Saskatchewan

A bit of good news, depending on who you talk too.

Dexter: N.S. ends fiscal year with $447 million surplus


By THE CANADIAN PRESS
Mon, Apr 4 - 8:07 PM

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/9020456.html

Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter says the province had a $447-million surplus as the fiscal year drew to a close last week.
The premier says the money will be used to pay down the province's massive $13-billion debt.

Dexter made the commitment Monday during his response to the throne speech.

He says the surplus was the result of a $133-million reduction in government spending along with an $80-million reduction in debt servicing costs, thanks to reduced borrowing needs and favourable interest rates.

There was also a one-time adjustment of provincial revenue collected by Ottawa that provided the province with $196 million.

Dexter says that most provincial source revenues also came in higher than estimated.

Quebec , I think it will has floor!as I know it always hold a big qualification in Canda economy

Over the next decade?

Hmmm... Well, Newfoundland could suprise us and totally flunk or become the greatest province. So I'm holding my tongue for them.

With the way the Loonie and Resources are concerned I'd say Saskatchewan, Northern Territories & Alberta.

If Ontario considers the clean energy thing... it's a no-go.

'Sizzling' economy powers N.L. budget surplus

Soaring oil production helped Newfoundland and Labrador on Tuesday post a whopping $485-million surplus for the last fiscal year, with government expecting another surplus despite a broad pre-election spending program.

"Our economy is sizzling right now," said Finance Minister Tom Marshall, whose new $7.3-billion budget includes large increases on both the revenue and spending sides. The government expects to finish the year with a surplus of $59 million.

"We're going to have lots of revenues … People are paid well, and we cut their taxes," Marshall told reporters, defending a budget that includes increased spending in practically every part of the public service....
Continue reading (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/04/19/nl-budget-2011-main-surplus-419.html)

Here's the Budget: http://www.budget.gov.nl.ca/budget2011/

From 24 Hours News
http://eedition.toronto.24hrs.ca/epaper/viewer.aspx#

Ontario Economy Keeps On Growing

You'll have to refer to the link to read the story, as it won't let me copy and paste:
http://eedition.toronto.24hrs.ca/epaper/viewer.aspx#

Where the jobs are?

Provinces

Canada's national unemployment rate was 7.7 per cent in April. Here's what happened provincially (previous month in brackets):
Newfoundland 11.1 (12.4)

Prince Edward Island 11.2 (11.2)

Nova Scotia 9.2 (9.0)

New Brunswick 10.0 (9.6)

Quebec 7.8 (7.7)

Ontario 7.9 (8.1)

Manitoba 5.2 (5.5)

Saskatchewan 5.0 (5.2)

Alberta 5.9 (5.7)

British Columbia 7.9 (8.1)

Cities

Statistics Canada also released seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average unemployment rates for major cities but cautions the figures may fluctuate widely because they are based on small statistical samples. (Previous month in brackets.)

St. John's, N.L. 5.7 (6.5)

Halifax 6.6 (6.6)

Moncton, N.B. 7.8 (8.1)

Saint John, N.B. 6.8 (6.4)

Saguenay, Que. 7.7 (7.8)

Quebec 6.8 (6.3)

Sherbrooke, Que. 6.9 (7.3)

Trois-Rivieres, Que. 8.7 (8.5)

Montreal 8.0 (8.1)

Gatineau, Que. 6.8 (6.8)

Ottawa 6.3 (6.5)

Kingston, Ont. 7.1 (6.8)

Peterborough, Ont. 9.6 (9.7)

Oshawa, Ont. 9.9 (8.9)

Toronto 8.5 (8.5)

Hamilton 5.5 (6.0)

St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont. 9.2 (9.5)

Kitchener, Ont. 6.9 (6.7)

Brantford, Ont. 8.9 (9.2)

Guelph, Ont. 7.2 (7.3)

London, Ont. 8.3 (8.3)

Windsor, Ont. 10.7 (9.7)

Barrie, Ont. 8.8 (8.9)

Sudbury, Ont. 7.9 (7.6)

Thunder Bay, Ont. 7.3 (7.0)

Winnipeg 5.7 (5.7)

Regina 5.6 (5.6)

Saskatoon 6.1 (5.7)

Calgary 5.9 (6.1)

Edmonton 5.7 (5.8)

Kelowna, B.C. 8.1 (7.8)

Abbotsford, B.C. 9.4 (10.2)

Vancouver 8.4 (8.2)

Victoria 6.2 (6.3)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/where-the-jobs-are/article2012359/

St. John's now has the third lowest unemployment rate in the country!! Last mounth I think it was number 10.

Welcome to St. John’s, the hottest job market in the country

Cementing Newfoundland and Labrador’s ascendancy as a “have” province, its capital is enjoying a lower jobless rate than such long-time Canadian powerhouses as Calgary, Vancouver and Toronto.

The province’s overall job growth streaked ahead of the rest of the country over the past year, according to figures released Friday by Statistics Canada, expanding 6.9 per cent compared with 1.7 per cent nationally. That has left the jobless rate in St. John’s at just 5.7 per cent. Calgary’s rate is 5.9 per cent, Vancouver's 8.4 per cent, and Toronto’s 8.5 per cent.

Long plagued by sky-high unemployment, Newfoundland has seen its job market buoyed by its offshore energy resources, but the wealth has filtered through to other industries. Natural resources – which include not only oil but the more traditional industries of fishing and forestry – added about 2,000 workers, Statistics Canada said. Construction, manufacturing and trade grew even more, and public administration also saw a huge jump.

Companies in the capital report having trouble finding employees, and some students are snapped up straight out of school. Among them is Jessica Mandville, who just graduated Memorial University as a civil engineer and was offered a job the same day as her last exam. The 23-year-old St. John’s resident starts Monday as a project engineer with the Newfoundland division of the construction firm J.W. Lindsay Enterprises. She was the last of her circle of close friends in the university program to secure a position. But she wasn’t concerned.

“It seemed to be picking up,” she said Friday. “For civil engineering, in particular, it seemed there was a lot of work.”

...
Continue reading (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/atlantic/welcome-to-st-johns-the-hottest-job-market-in-the-country/article2013670/)

^^ Hey, good news! Glad to see things looking up on The Rock! :carrot:

Honestly if you have a civil engineering degree the job market is hot in general. I still know people from Nfld are moving out west largely because employers here are still open to given applicants a chance who don't have college/uni degrees not to
mention wages are higher.

There are still many people who go to Alberta to get experience. I know of several people who could not get engirneering jobs here, a lot of oil companies won't take new grads unless they are honour students, but after living in Alberta for litterally a few months were able to come back and get jobs.

You can also get well paying jobs in Alberta without finishing high school so there are those people who move away, get there experience and can then work on the oil rigs.

Of course there's more then oil here.

Great employment numbers for Quebec City, less so for the Province.

Highlights

The Quebec City census metropolitan area (CMA) recorded the highest job creation rate in Canada for the second straight month in August, with 6,600 jobs added since July.

Employment in Quebec City is now back to where it was in January 2011. The employment level is now only 3,900 jobs fewer than the peak recorded in November 2010; in May, this difference was 20,000 jobs.

Unemployment held steady at 4.8% in August due to an equivalent increase in the total workforce and in the employment rate compared with July (+1.6%). The only Canadian city with a lower unemployment rate was Regina at 4.7%. For the province of Quebec, the total number of jobs dropped by 4,500 compared with July, while unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points to 7.6%.

Commentary

The Quebec City region kept the pedal to the metal in August as it recorded the highest job creation rate in Canada for the second straight month, adding 6,600 workers since July, for a total of 421,100, and outgunning Edmonton (+5,800), London (+3,300) and Calgary (+3,200). This fine showing also helped keep the unemployment rate under the 5% mark.

[...]

http://www.quebecinternational.ca/economic-news/2011/09/quebec-city-region-highest-job-creation-rate-in-canada-in-august

Alberta has stayed true a lot longer than I thought it would.

I find it strange how before, it would boom and die quickly, but what makes now so different? They've always had the oil.

It will die again though, that's for sure, and everyone will move back East.

Alberta has stayed true a lot longer than I thought it would.

I find it strange how before, it would boom and die quickly, but what makes now so different? They've always had the oil.

It will die again though, that's for sure, and everyone will move back East.

Alberta USED to boom and die quickly. Alberta used to die and boom quickly because it's to main industries were like those of Texas: Oil and Agriculture.

Oil and Agriculture is obviously connected heavily. Oil goes down, Wheat does too and vis versa. That's why Alberta was a typical boom/bust place. That's not the case anymore however, since like Texas: It's invested in industry and commerce/service aswell.

As to the comment: Will Alberta die again? No. That's like asking if Vancouver will die when real estate pops. It'll get hit hard. However, because the area managed to diversify itself from their main industry they'll be able to recover.

I agree with you and disagree. I do not think Alberta will sustain itself fo a lot longer. Maybe 20+ years tops. Mos people only go out there temporarily as well. Most will come back.

Alberta will be heavily dependent on two factors.

1) Will they build a pipeline through BC to allow supertankers to ship oil to China?

2) Will US environmentalists be able to block the Tar Sands pipeline?

If they can't sell to the US or China, there aren't enough Canadians to buy their oil, and thus the economy there will stall, all the momentum will leave and it will be a 'normal' province again. Remember that their conventional oil stocks are set to run out soon.

Alberta needs to diversify. It's all about shipping raw product to the United States at this point. Not smart.

Indeed. I have heard that traditional ground oil supplies are due to start running out by 2030. All the eggs are in the oil sands basket.....and you know what they say about putting all of one's eggs in one basket.

Extracting oil from the tar sands is expensive and resource-intensive. Furthermore, the oil produced isn't of the highest quality. If indeed there are readily available oil resources in the arctic and if the North-West passage is at last navigable, it would be much more easy and economic for chinese super-tanker to take their oil directly up north... In any case, let's hope Alberta's economy will diversify more rapidly in the decades to come.

Indeed. I have heard that traditional ground oil supplies are due to start running out by 2030. All the eggs are in the oil sands basket.....and you know what they say about putting all of one's eggs in one basket.

I'm hopeful that Alberta can reach a critical mass of talent, population, and wealth to move beyond a carbon based economy. Texas boomed from oil, then boomed in population, but managed to replicate that success in other industries. Alberta must do the same.

Alberta has a lot going for it besides oil so I'm optimistic that it is moving away from being a one trick wonder. Forestry, agriculture, petro-chemicals, tourism, geological expertise are all well established. They need to build in finance, manufacturing, and become more innovative in their areas of strength.

Squandering the opportunity would be a tremendous disappointment.