I came across some interesting maps the other day highlighting population growth and Transit Ridership projections.....not in map format....It seems that after my state introduced a statewide TOD policy back in the early 1990s , the population become more dense and narrowed down to along rail corridors. My state ie New Jersey was the first , now other Northeasterns states are following suit. CT , Eastern PA , RI , and MD are developing statewide TOD Policies as we speak. These include , Suburban and Urban Areas...over the next decade TOD will add over 4.2 million users to the NE Rail / Bus networks....and account for 30% of the housing.

1990 Population : 43 Million
2000 Population : 49 Million
2010 Population : 53 Million
2025 Population : 60 Million
2030 Population : 66 Million
2040 Population : 75 Million
2050 Population : 80 Million

2010 Transit Daily Usage : 20.4 Million
2020 Transit Daily Usage : 35 Million
2050 Transit Daily Usage : 50 Million


1990

http://www.rpa.org/northeastlandscapes/images/UrbanLand_Page_1.jpg

2000

http://www.rpa.org/northeastlandscapes/images/UrbanLand_Page_2.jpg

2010

http://www.rpa.org/northeastlandscapes/images/UrbanLand_Page_3.jpg

2020

http://www.rpa.org/northeastlandscapes/images/UrbanLand_Page_4.jpg

2030

http://www.rpa.org/northeastlandscapes/images/UrbanLand_Page_5.jpg

2040

http://www.rpa.org/northeastlandscapes/images/UrbanLand_Page_6.jpg

I can only say one thing:

STOP to build so much freaking cul de sac sprawling suburbs!

And such images that also come from some parts in China freak me out more because you know those area's in China don't have the density of small village.
USA needs to reform its cities if they want to keep a healthy growt...I'm gladd that some in the USA have come to the same conclusion.

I can only say one thing:

STOP to build so much freaking cul de sac sprawling suburbs!

And such images that also come from some parts in China freak me out more because you know those area's in China don't have the density of small village.
USA needs to reform its cities if they want to keep a healthy growt...I'm gladd that some in the USA have come to the same conclusion.

Only Virgina and Maryland are building sprawl , but the rest of the Northeast is build up Densely....+ the Northeast has historically always been dense....

^^
Are you sure? Long Island, northern New Jersey, upstate NY, Connecticut all seem very very sprawled. The same thing for Boston and Philadelphia's suburbs.

Anyhow, this 76 million figure for 2025 seems far too high for me.


STOP to build so much freaking cul de sac sprawling suburbs!

Why? Let people leave where they want.

Only Virgina and Maryland are building sprawl , but the rest of the Northeast is build up Densely....+ the Northeast has historically always been dense....

The cities in the north east are dense, but their suburbs are one of the least dense in the whole USA. In western cities like Phoenix or Dallas, the houses are built close to each other, but in the north east there are huge strips of forest between the houses which makes sprawl even worse.

^^
Are you sure? Long Island, northern New Jersey, upstate NY, Connecticut all seem very very sprawled. The same thing for Boston and Philadelphia's suburbs.

Anyhow, this 76 million figure for 2025 seems far too high for me.




Why? Let people leave where they want.

The cities in the north east are dense, but their suburbs are one of the least dense in the whole USA. In western cities like Phoenix or Dallas, the houses are built close to each other, but in the north east there are huge strips of forest between the houses which makes sprawl even worse.

The Cores of each town are dense , North Jersey has older sprawl which is different then the newer sprawl its more walkable....and contained except LI which is exploding. But now the region is turning into dense sprawl....like NYC , slowly but surely. 76 Million for the whole Northeast / Mid Atlantic , most growth will be around the DC Region....due to lower taxes

The cities in the north east are dense, but their suburbs are one of the least dense in the whole USA. In western cities like Phoenix or Dallas, the houses are built close to each other, but in the north east there are huge strips of forest between the houses which makes sprawl even worse.

I think you mean the exurbs.

Many of the inner suburban areas of most Northeast cities are relatively dense and they have discernible centers which are hard to find out west.

The suburbs around here are sprawled for sure but have town centers that are over 300 years old, with churches and town greens created way before the car.

^^
Are you sure? Long Island, northern New Jersey, upstate NY, Connecticut all seem very very sprawled. The same thing for Boston and Philadelphia's suburbs.

Anyhow, this 76 million figure for 2025 seems far too high for me.



Why? Let people leave where they want.

It is. It grew 4 million in 20 years, and now they expect 9 million in only 15 years? Especially since most of those areas had growth slow a decent amount from the 1990's to the 2000's.

^^
Are you sure? Long Island, northern New Jersey, upstate NY, Connecticut all seem very very sprawled. The same thing for Boston and Philadelphia's suburbs.



Is the scaling on that map consistent?


Metro Boston looks bigger than Metro NYC!

^^ It's not. "Metro NYC" sprawls from Eastern PA all the way to New Haven or the eastern tip of Long Island.

It is. It grew 4 million in 20 years, and now they expect 9 million in only 15 years? Especially since most of those areas had growth slow a decent amount from the 1990's to the 2000's.

If you count DC, VA, MD, DE, and WV like in the maps in this thread, the growth is more like 7 million in the last 20 years.

That said, 9 million in 15 years is pretty unrealistic.

I put in the correct numbers , I mixed up the numbers..from 2 other sites...most of the growth will be between NYC-DC and Hampton Roads. I talked to a few people about the population growth and they think it will level off by 2050 and slow.

They better be investing in public transportation (mainly train connections) so that people can travel from far away to work or else they'll move somewhere else because real estate prices are getting higher every year and it will be impossible to afford a home in the urbanized area of NE Seaboard in the near future. Going to work by car is not an option even today much less in 20-30 years.

Going to work by car is not an option even today much less in 20-30 years.

It is an option taken by more than 75% of all commuters in the area shown in the map. How is it "not an option even today"?

My mistake. I was talking about jobs in 100% urbanized areas, not the whole East Coast.

List of U.S. cities with most households without a car, data from the 2000 Census

1. New York City, New York 55.7%
2. Newark, New Jersey 44.17%
3. Jersey City, New Jersey 40.67%
4. Washington, D.C. 36.93%
5. Hartford, Connecticut 36.14%
6. Baltimore, Maryland 35.89%
7. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 35.74%
8. Boston, Massachusetts 34.91%

data from the 2004 Census
Of all people who commute to work in New York City, 41% use the subway, 24% drive alone, 12% take the bus, 10% walk to work, 2% travel by commuter rail, 5% carpool, 1% use a taxi, 0.6% ride their bicycle to work, and 0.2% travel by ferry.[11] 54% of households in New York City do not own a car, and rely on public transportation.

As you can see these numbers are outdated so I guess they're higher today. Bigger the density lesser the car usage, because at that point it becomes obsolete (point made: car ownership in Manhattans=7%). Also owning a car doesn't mean going to work by car. And in the future it's only going to get worse for car owners.

1990 Population : 43 Million
2000 Population : 49 Million
2010 Population : 53 Million
2025 Population : 58 Million
2040 Population : 80 Million
2050 Population : 85 Million

That projected leap from 58mil to 80mil between 2025 - 2040 is laughable. So lets see:

1990 - 2000 saw growth of 0.6mil per year.
2000 - 2010 saw growth of 0.4mil per year.
2010 - 2025 is projected to see 0.33mil growth per year.
Then all of a sudden between 2025 - 2040, we're apparently going to see growth explode to ~1.46mil per year before slowing right back down to 0.5mil per year? Ummm, what exactly is going to happen that will cause the growth rate to surge somewhere in the vacinity of 400% - 600% during the decade and a half of 2025 - 2040? :nuts:

That projected leap from 58mil to 80mil between 2025 - 2040 is laughable. So lets see:

1990 - 2000 saw growth of 0.6mil per year.
2000 - 2010 saw growth of 0.4mil per year.
2010 - 2025 is projected to see 0.33mil growth per year.
Then all of a sudden between 2025 - 2040, we're apparently going to see growth explode to ~1.46mil per year before slowing right back down to 0.5mil per year? Ummm, what exactly is going to happen that will cause the growth rate to surge somewhere in the vacinity of 400% - 600% during the decade and a half of 2025 - 2040? :nuts:

The growth is mainly from SEPA to Southern Virginia which grew by 47% this past decade. The whole Northeastern Megapolis grew by 75% over the past decade. There alot of new companies and a new immigrant population has been exploding....in certain parts of the NE. Its mostly a Asian - Latino boom , but over the past 5 years there's been a older Eastern Euro boom in New England. So those population projects are right this time....

They better be investing in public transportation (mainly train connections) so that people can travel from far away to work or else they'll move somewhere else because real estate prices are getting higher every year and it will be impossible to afford a home in the urbanized area of NE Seaboard in the near future. Going to work by car is not an option even today much less in 20-30 years.

Yes there are plans to expand it and create new lines...

All the projects that will be completed by 2020 / 2025 in the NE Megapolis , some have been placed into budgets for engineering and construction preps later this decade , a few have started and some are almost finished.

Light Rail or Subway
Electrified Commuter Rail
Diesel Commuter Rail

Line Name - State Served - Length - stations - Ridership estimates

New Haven - Springfield line - CT/MA - 60.5 miles - 12 stations - 45,000
Gateway Access - NJ/NY - 4 miles - 3 stations - 140,000
Phase 1 Lackawanna line - NJ/PA - 195 miles - 25 stations - 15,000
Penn Station New Haven line Access - NY - 19 Miles - 5 stations - 30,000
Penn Station Hudson line Access - NY - 12 miles - 3 stations - 15,000
Danbury line extension to New Milford - CT - 15 miles - 2 stations - 5,000
Bayfront Light Rail Extension - NJ - 0.4 mile - 1 station - 25,000
Newport / Fall River line - 80 miles - MA - 20 stations - 35,000
Stoughton / New Bedford line - MA - 55 miles - 15 stations - 20,000
Cape Cod line - MA - 90 miles - 22 stations - 25,000
Wickford JCT / Kingston line - RI - 20 miles - 10 stations - 15,000
Quonset line - RI - 5 miles - 2 stations - 4,500
Woonsocket line - RI/MA - 43 miles - 12 stations - 15,000
Northampton / Brattleboro line - MA/VT - 60 miles - 10 stations - 15,000
East Side Access - NY - 3 miles - 1 station - 150,000
Penn line extension to Wilmington - MD/DE - 20 miles - 5 stations - 8,500
Millville / Glassboro light Rail line - NJ - 42 miles - 21 stations - 30,000
MOM Rail Network - NJ - 85 miles - 35 stations - 140,000
56 Trolley - PA - 8 miles - 20 stations - 50,000
23 Trolley - PA - 10 miles - 25 stations - 65,000
Baltimore Red line - MD - 25 miles - 20 stations - 65,000
Purple line Light Rail - MD - 19 miles - 21 stations - 50,000
Metro Silver line - DC/VA - 30 miles - 11 stations - 90,000
DC Streetcar network - DC - 45 miles - 60 stations - 120,000
Phase 1 Second Avenue Subway - NY - 3 miles - 3 stations - 140,000
7 line Extension to Westside - NY - 3 miles - 3 stations - 55,000
Arlington / Alexandria Streetcars - VA - 45 miles - 60 stations - 120,000
PATH EWR - NJ - 3 miles - 2 stations - 12,000
Green line extension to Somerville - MA - 4 miles - 8 stations - 70,000
Northern Branch Light Rail - NJ - 12 miles - 9 stations - 25,000

^^ Good to hear that. Do you perhaps have any maps of these future projects?

Just a of few of the maps...
DC / Northern Virginia Streetcars

http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Washington-DC-Future-Transit-Map.jpg

Baltimore Full Build out plans..., the Red line is going ahead , with the Yellow , and Green lines on hold. The Orange line was canceled , and the MARC system is being overhauled prepped for expansion.

http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Picture-1.png

The Lackawanna Railway...

http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/lackawanna.png?w=150

Improvements to South Jersey's Transit system...

http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/south-jersey12.png?w=150

My mistake. I was talking about jobs in 100% urbanized areas, not the whole East Coast.

100% urbanized counties are still a thin minority in the Northern seaboard, let alone in US.


2004 census
2004 Census??? Weren't the most recent census 2000 and 2010?

As you can see these numbers are outdated so I guess they're higher today. Bigger the density lesser the car usage, because at that point it becomes obsolete (point made: car ownership in Manhattans=7%). Also owning a car doesn't mean going to work by car. And in the future it's only going to get worse for car owners.

Manhattan is as un-representative of US as is, say, Prudohe Bay, AK area. Both are non-representative oddities that shouldn't be used to draw conclusions on a regional, let alone national level.

I agree that there is a difference between car ownership and car use. In any case, the average commute time in NY Metro Area in 2010 was 46 minutes, the higher for any metropolitan area with more than 1 million inhabitants (Los Angeles scored 35 minutes). Boston, Chicago and Bay Area are other places on top 10 commuting times, which is somehow an indication high transit usage doesn't equal shorter commute times at all.

I don't know. I read a lot of NYers are moving out of the state due to high living costs. The area will grow for sure but it will a very slow growth, on the line of stabilization I'd say.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_growth_rate

^^Totally conjecture, but I'd be willing to bet that the average commute times for the NYC metro area are dragged up by a number of factors:
1. The metro area is comprised of a number of other cities that could on their own be large metro areas, i.e., the commutes take place almost entirely through fairly dense urban areas and are therefore very highly trafficked.
2. Commuting by car takes enough additional time relative to the best commuter rail lines that the average is raised disproportionately by car travel.
3. There are probably fewer miles of highway per car in the NE than in Southern California, hence again, worse traffic.
As I said, this is all just conjecture, could be wrong on one of all of them, it's just my two cents. And although the population growth statistics seem exaggerated, and probably are, I'd wager that this part of the country is going to see some serious growth; it's already the most economically active part of the country, and I imagine stagnation in other regions could easily make internal immigration a big contributor, as well as old-fashioned immigration.

I don't know. I read a lot of NYers are moving out of the state due to high living costs. The area will grow for sure but it will a very slow growth, on the line of stabilization I'd say.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_growth_rate

I don't know. I read a lot of NYers are moving out of the state due to high living costs. The area will grow for sure but it will a very slow growth, on the line of stabilization I'd say.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_growth_rate

They certainly aren't staying down south , most do return if they get the chance. As for the growth , it will be from Philly to Southern Virginia where the cost of living is cheaper and the Job growth is at a decent pace. North of Philly will be slow , but will become denser. In New England there will be decent growth along the Downeaster Corridor and Knowledge Corridors...

They certainly aren't staying down south , most do return if they get the chance. As for the growth , it will be from Philly to Southern Virginia where the cost of living is cheaper and the Job growth is at a decent pace. North of Philly will be slow , but will become denser. In New England there will be decent growth along the Downeaster Corridor and Knowledge Corridors...

Nexis, Northeast-Southwest migration is the most strong inter-regional flow within US, and it has been since the 1960s when it surpassed the Deep South-Great Lake migration of African Americans.

Nexis, Northeast-Southwest migration is the most strong inter-regional flow within US, and it has been since the 1960s when it surpassed the Deep South-Great Lake migration of African Americans.

The Mid Atlantic is part of the South ,or an extension of the Northeastern US. So the population is mainly going down to the Mid-Atlantic region of the south , most educated part of the south....:lol:

The Mid Atlantic is part of the South ,or an extension of the Northeastern US. So the population is mainly going down to the Mid-Atlantic region of the south , most educated part of the south....:lol:

Geez, what is wrong with "the South" anyways? Un-educated and educated people are everywhere, even in Jackson, MS, aren't they?

Geez, what is wrong with "the South" anyways? Un-educated and educated people are everywhere, even in Jackson, MS, aren't they?

The South is more uneducated then the rest of the US , this is reflected in there job growth , daily living and quality of life. So while there growing its not in a good way or will lead to serious problems down the road unlike the Northeast or West.

I think, Suburb, what he means is that the south is the poorest region in the US, and has the worst education rate in the US too. Not all the states, but more than in other regions.

The South is more uneducated then the rest of the US , this is reflected in there job growth , daily living and quality of life. So while there growing its not in a good way or will lead to serious problems down the road unlike the Northeast or West.

Depends.

While there are many areas that are centered around low skill labor (such as Florida, the Rio Grande Valley region of Texas, and Memphis for example), many cities such as Raleigh-Durham, Atlanta, Houston, and Austin have been succesfull in attracting well educated workers as well. The Raleigh-Durham area alone has attracted many companies such as GlaxoSmithKline because of it's highly educated workforce. Likewise many engineers are attracted to Houston because of the huge market for civil/chemical/structural/and petroleum engineers thanks to the energy industry.

I'll do my Northeastern / Mid-Atlantic (Northeastern Megapolis) City Predictions first...


New York City : 8.1 Million (2010) > 8.6 Million (2030)

Philadelphia : 1.5 Million (2010) > 1.9 Million (2030)

Baltimore : 620,961 (2010 > 680,000 (2030)

Boston : 617,594 (2010) > 670,000 (2030)

Washington DC : 601,723 (2010) > 730,000 (2030)

Virginia Beach : 437,994 (2010) > 520,000 (2030)

Newark : 277,140 (2010) > 290,600 (2030)

Jersey City : 247,597 (2010) > 310,000 (2030)

Norfolk : 242,803 (2010) > 290,000 (2030)

Chesapeake : 222,209 (2010) > 260,000 (2030)

Transit Ridership for NJ first...

-Light Rail

Hudson Bergen Light Rail - 50,000 (2010) > 190,000 (2030)
Newark Light Rail - 21,000 (2010) > 40,000 (2030)
Riverline - 11,000 (2010) > 25,000 (2030)

-PATH - 236,000 (2010) > 300,000 (2030)

-Regional Rail

Atlantic line - 1760 (2010) > 8,000 (2030)
Northeast Corridor - 53,800 (2010) > 90,000 (2030)
North Jersey Coast line - 17,800 (2010) > 35,000 (2030)
Raritan Valley line - 12,100 (2010) > 25,000 (2030)
Main Line - 9,160 (2010) > 30,000 (2030)
Bergen County Line - 4,300 (2010) > 17,000 (2030)
Pascack Valley Line - 3,617 (2010) > 16,500 (2030)
Montclair-Boonton Line - 10,142 (2010) > 21,000 (2030)
Morristown Line - 50,000 (2010) > 75,000 (2030)
Gladstone Branch - 3036 (2010) > 6,500 (2030)

Hopefully these lines are up and running by 2030 or under Construction ...the projections are by Transit advocates / blogs and Counties , not NJT.

MOM Rail Network - 130,000
West Trenton line - 15,000
Philpsburg Connections - 30,000
Glassboro LRT - 25,000
Northwest line - 15,000
Bergen - Passaic LRT - 9,500
West Shore line - 50,000
Various Restored Essex / Hudson County lines - 25,000
Various restored South Jersey lines - 15,000

Regional Population Projections...

New York City - Northern / Central NJ , Southeastern CT , LoHud Valley
2000 : 20.6 Million > 2010 : 22.08 Million > 2050 : 35 Million

Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia
2000 : 7.5 Million > 2010 : 8.9 Million > 2050 : 15 Million

Boston - Worcester - Manchester - Providence
2000 : 7.2 Million > 2010 : 7.5 Million > 2050 : 9 Million

Philadelphia–Camden–Wilmington-Reading
2000 : 6.2 Million > 2010 : 6.5 Million > 2050 : 14 Million