Do you think that Our state capitals will ever be overtaken by another city?

[Blend]

Meaning, is it ever possible in the forseeable future that Brisbane will be overtaken by Golc coast, toowoomba, cairns, townsville, or any other. Or will darwin be overtaken by alice springs. Or perth by broome, or Sydney by Dubbo


None of those were meaning anything, just all i could think off off my head.


But is it possible?

[tayser]

anything's possible when something catastrophic happens.

- not in our lifetimes.

[JayT]

I have seen in several publications that Gold Coast may overtake Adelaide - most are quoting 15 years but that was when Adelaide was actually loosing people - it is growing again. Perhaps GC will overtake Adelaide in 20-25 years at current growth levels but personally I don't think GC can keep up those levels of growth. There are already major cracks starting to appear such as water shortages, traffic issues and a lack of available space to build upon as GC reaches the mountains.

There are already more people who live in GC than the whole of Tasmania and ACT so it has overtaken several capitals.

But then again - will GC actually exist as a separate entity within SEQ in 25 years? Adelaide may keep its title as 5th largest city.

jt

[Blend]

in 25 years.. GC will probably have been swallowed up in brisbanes suburbs...

How about Launceston overtaking hobart?

that is probably a possible one.

[JayT]

in 25 years.. GC will probably have been swallowed up in brisbanes suburbs...

How about Launceston overtaking hobart?

that is probably a possible one.
Its possibly possible that its a possible one;)

What is the difference between Launceston and Hobart?

jt

[Blend]

Hobart: 199,900 (very soon it will get to 200? unless the emporis stat is behind.. which is possible)

Launceston: 68,431


Ok so theres a 131,000 difference! lol. i didnt know it was that big, i always got the impressions Hobart n Launceston were quite the same.

[RocStar]

Brisbane could become a suburb of the GC..lol

[Blend]

*Gives evil stares to RocStar*

[RocStar]

I thought that would ruffle your feathers abit. :laugh:

[Wezza]

Just like Perth is a suburb of Bunbury. :D

[Cee_em_bee]

I think the question is.. Will a non Capital city reach one million?

Mayby newcastle metro(wyong and gosford included)
or the Gold coast could reach 1 million.

Would you count Tweed Heads as part of the Gc metro area?

[Yardmaster]

No.

[GMAC]

Why wouldn't you call Tweed Heads part of the GC metro area. There is no clear division between Coolangatta and Tweed Heads, other than that of the state border and if you ask most people that live in the area they will tell you that they wish Tweed Heads was part of Queensland since all services for these areas come out of Queensland.

[mic]

edited

[Avatar]

I think the question is.. Will a non Capital city reach one million?

Mayby newcastle metro(wyong and gosford included)
or the Gold coast could reach 1 million.

Would you count Tweed Heads as part of the Gc metro area?

You have got to be joking, Gosford and Wyong have no ties to the Hunter, they are effectively more closely aligned with Sydney. The population of the Central Coast is not THAT much smaller than Newcastle - why would you even entertain the thought that they be lumped together?

Gosford is closer to the Sydney CBD than Newcastle's I think you must be one of those NBN centric people that thing the Central Coast has its ties further north.

The Central Coast will likely reach a million on its own as will the Hunter (although a fair way off from now) and that will add another 2 million to the ever increasing Greater Sydney Metro Zone.

[Chuq]

Hobart: 199,900 (very soon it will get to 200? unless the emporis stat is behind.. which is possible)

Launceston: 68,431


Ok so theres a 131,000 difference! lol. i didnt know it was that big, i always got the impressions Hobart n Launceston were quite the same.

Interesting.. I thought it was closer to 100,000 for Launceston and 180,000 for Hobart. (and I've lived in both for 26 years combined!) May be something to do with city council regions/metropolitan regions.

Check http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/31A3F36572AE6E6FCA256DEA0005398D?Open

[Orfeo]

I agree with the numbers for Hobart, but I've got different ones for Greater Launceston

GL includes -

George town (5,618)
Launceston - inner (233)
Launceston - pt b (60,242)
Meander Valley - pt A (8,110)
Northen Midlands - pt A (7,475)
West Tamar - pt A (18,912)

= 100,590

[Alexander21]

In Victoria, no way!

Melbourne - 3.7 million
Geelong - 200,000
Ballarat - 100,000
Bendigo - 80,000

[sakor1]

Yeah, the only one I can see happenning, possibly, is the GC overtaking Brisbane in QLD (although will take a long time). For any other states the difference between the Largest and Second largest cities is too great to see it happenning at the moment.

The GC will most definately be the first non-capital to pass the 1 million mark, and should overtake Adelaide within the next 50 years comfortably going on current growth rates.

stu

[Shuzstar]

I believe in the foreseeable future that Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast will become a part of Brisbane, after all it is the fastest growing spot in the nation. And I also believe that Adelaide will eventually hook up with Mount Barker and Goolwa/Victor Harbor. Another prediction, but this one could take more than 20 years to grow, but how about Melbourne and Geelong moulding into one another? And what about the whole Sydney-Newcastle-Wollongong thing?

But onto the main focus of the topic, Launceston is probably the only city that will overtake its capital. Its faster growing, closer to the mainland and has a good future than Hobart.

[Blend]

sakor, by the time GC reaches 1 million, it will have been swallowed into brisbane, thereby making it completly impossibly for it to ever 'overtake' us lol.

not that it could being that the growth rate for bris is higher.

But i agree GC will be the first non capital to pass 1 million.

[TheDon]

Brisbane city council currently has a display at city hall "The 200km City" with a large set of satelite pics about 10m long showing Gold Coast, Brisbane, Sunshine Coast metro.

It is surprising how little farm area or green space separates these development areas despite governments trying to prevent one endless sprawl.

With predictions of at least 1 million increase in population of this metro area, Queensland environment minister is trying to tell new migrants from interstate to keep driving north, as she says infrastructure is being strained.

My message to her is thats what current govt is there for, not to tell us where to live, but to keep upgrading the infrastructure.

Funny how Labor seems to get in at state level then tells us we use too much water, too many cars, too much electricity in fact there is just too many of us in the city and we should all go bush.

But what mythical services and infrastucture awaits us in the bush?

[Blend]

why do ppl have to keep moving threads. it is really very annoying.

[finn]

Yep, as mentioned by Orfeo, as of June 30, 2003 populations for Tasmania's two largest cities are:

Greater Hobart: 199,886

Greater Launceston: 100,590

And yes, Tweed Heads is considered part of the Gold Coast metro because it is a contiguous urban area.

Wollongong-Sydney-Newcastle are already considered to be one urban corridor but will always be considered separate cities/metro areas because of areas of separation through national parks/significant geographic boundaries/rural zones etc.

Launceston was the fastest growing city in Tasmania for that year (2002-2003) at 1.2% or 1,456 people, but Hobart also grew by 1% or 2,008 people. So I don't think there is gonna be any change in the population rankings for Tasmanian cities any time soon. For Launceston to overtake Hobart, it would have to double it's population (that usually takes quite some time!), while Hobart would have to remain at its current population or decline over that period.

[Macca-GC]

The prediction for the Gold Coast City Council area is that the maximum population will be 1.2 million which we will hit in 2056. 1 million in about 2030. So Gold Coast City could be bigger than Brisbane City. I think we'll be the first to break 1 million.

With predictions of at least 1 million increase in population of this metro area, Queensland environment minister is trying to tell new migrants from interstate to keep driving north, as she says infrastructure is being strained.

That was infact the Queensland Minister for Local Governments and Planning, Desley Boyle. She wants to encourage people to go to Toowoomba, Boonah, Hervey Bay, Gympie, Marybrough, Gladstone and Rockhampton. As if Queensland wasn't the most de-centralised state already.

[Neo]

The prediction for the Gold Coast City Council area is that the maximum population will be 1.2 million which we will hit in 2056. 1 million in about 2030. So Gold Coast City could be bigger than Brisbane City. I think we'll be the first to break 1 million.



That was infact the Queensland Minister for Local Governments and Planning, Desley Boyle. She wants to encourage people to go to Toowoomba, Boonah, Hervey Bay, Gympie, Marybrough, Gladstone and Rockhampton. As if Queensland wasn't the most de-centralised state already.

This is ridiculous. Gold Coast will never be bigger than Brisbane. It's just not possible. For starters, as already stated here, if Gold Coast ever got up to the 1 million mark it would start to get swallowed up by Brisbane - like what happened to Ipswich. It would still maintain it's own identity but you could never make population comparisons between the two cities because they are so interlinked.

And secondly, if the max population is 1.2 million, Brisbane is already more than this (1.6 million). Unless you are going on the Brisbane City LGA, which is stupid, cause you don't say Sydney has the population of 150,000. Anyway, if the border stays the same Brisbane LGA will be more than 1.2 million in 50 years. (It's about 950,000 now). Once again, Brisbane is growing faster than the coast, so if the coast's population is 1 million Brisbane will be well over 3 million.

But why all the competition. Both cities enhance each other, and if they worked together they can effectively compete with Sydney and Melbourne.

[Macca-GC]

Yes, I was talking about the Brisbane LGA. Yes, I know that that's not accurate. Don't take everything so seriously. And no, Brisbane and the Gold Coast will not grow together. State Treasurer, Terry Mackinroth has said several times that there will be a green belt preserved so that the two cities don't become one. In fact, there is already a belt between the two. It's called the Logan and Albert Rivers. And, you do realise that you don't have to sprawl to get a larger population. The Gold Coast could become alot denser. Make Runaway Bay, Labrador, Southport, Main Beach, Surfers, Bundall, Broadbeach, Mermaid Beach, Miami and Burleigh all denser and my guess is that you could probably fit at least 300,000 people in there.

And also, Brisbane is not growing faster than the Gold Coast is. Yes, they get more people moving there each year, but they don't have the growth rate we have, and as we all know, having a higher growth rate means that eventually the Gold Coast will overtake Brisbane.

[Orfeo]

^
I'm not sure what you're talking about why you say there is a belt between Brisbane and the Gold Coast: Logan is part of the Brisbane metro...so not exactly an efficient barrier.

I don't think that Machinroth is talking about isn't a line between the cities, as that can't happen as the two already have connect on that strip near the Pacific Highway. Strictly speaking areas of the Gold Coast are already considered part of the brisbane metro, such as Beenliegh, Eagleby and a special devision only knows as "gold coast B balance". He has said several times that green space will be preserved arround the south east (where is the big question).

The GC is growing faster in % to Brisbane (3.7 to 3.2) but you seem to have the interesting idea that because the GC has a higher growth rate it will overtake Brisbane. I would have a rethink about that.

[Macca-GC]

Oi, if both Brisbane and the Gold Coast were to keep those growth rates, the Gold Coast WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE LARGER CITY. Now, it's not like it would happen within this century, but that's beside the point!

[Orfeo]

^
Maybe, but the gold coast alone would have a greater population than Austalia has at the moment: 23.9 million people. At least with the Melb v Brisbane people the number are only around 6-7 million.

[Blend]

GC could never surpass brisbane though. There just isnt enough space. It would be swallowed well before it happened.

and dont say ull build highrises to keep form sprawl. the highesr % of ppl moving to the GC would want a house and land.

and even of there were 10% of GC ppls who wanted apartments, that would never even come close to enough to stop sprawl.

Your gonna be swallowed no matter what you think.

Using those growth rate %'s (which i think are wrong because these increases seem too high) and starting with data from emporis... this is the result

Note: Populations and Growth %'s MAY BE WRONG (old, whatever) but this shows u the obvious point needed ot be taken into account.

Brisbane:
2004: 1,733,200
2005: 1,788,662
2006: 1,845,899
2007: 1,904,967
2008: 1,965,925
2009: 2,028,834
2010: 2,093,756

Gold Coast
2004: 418,438
2005: 433,920
2006: 447,805
2007: 464,373
2008: 481,554
2009: 499,371
2010: 517,847


Pop Difference Between Bris and GC
2004: 1,314,762
2005: 1,354,742
2006: 1,398,094
2007: 1,440,594
2008: 1,484,371
2009: 1,529,463
2010: 1,575,909


So the gap grows by 2.948% in my scenario.

Therefore by the year 2100 the gap will have grown to 4,181,201.

In 2200 it will be a gap of 8,826,981

in 3000 a gap of 45,993,219

In the year 10,000, there'll be a gap of 3,711,979,000


Going further is pointless.

But the GC would have to have a MUCH more significant difference in the growth rates to get anywhere.

(p.s... i was bored :P)

[Jimmy James]

Hobart: 199,900 (very soon it will get to 200? unless the emporis stat is behind.. which is possible)

Launceston: 68,431


Ok so theres a 131,000 difference! lol. i didnt know it was that big, i always got the impressions Hobart n Launceston were quite the same.

68K is the population of Launceston City Council, Launceston is made up of four councils , the others being West Tamar (Riverside), Meander Valley (Prospect, Blackstone Heights) and Northern Midlands (Relbia, Breadalbane) The total population is 100K according to recent census figures which also list Hobart as having 180K Launceston is the only Australian City within striking distance of it's capital.

As for which city reaches 1 mill first, If the GC hits 1 mill it will be considered part of Brisbane, dissapointing many, but I reckon it will be the first.

[Neo]

When they say the Gold Coast has a population of 400,000; are they including areas such as Beenleigh? If so it's not really accurate. Although it is part of the Coast LGA, It is far more aligned with Brisbane than the coast. Until recently it was in the Albert Shire, but when it merged with Logan it was lost to the Coast. Having lived in Springwood (about 10 minutes north of Beenleigh) everyone I knew considered Beenleigh part of Brisbane - it's a major hub on the suburban train line and together with Springwood forms a major Business District for the Logan region. In every way other than politically it is part of Brisbane.

[Neo]

Never mind, checked it out myself. It's 400,000 excluding Beenleigh. It would be 440,00 inclusive.

For info, Brisbane's population is divided as follows:

Brisbane City: 888,449
Logan City: 164,541
Pine Rivers Shire: 119,236
Redlands Shire: 114,601
Ipswich City (BSD): 112,104
Caboolture Shire "A": 107,070
Redcliffe City: 49,071
Gold Coast "A": 45,148
Beaudesert Shire "A": 27,315
TOTAL 1,627,535

Surrounding Areas
Gold Coast "B": 396,558
Sunshine Coast: 192,397
Moreton SD Bal (Other): 115,584
TOTAL: 704,539

South East Queensland Total: 2,332,074

Anyone know the criteria for being a city? I know Redlands has being working on this for at least 10 years; and Redcliffe is a city will less than half of it's population. Though granted, Redcliffe is far more dense.

[Orfeo]

^
Do you know how old those numbers are? I'd say 2000 or 2001 Because I have ones from 2003 that are a bit different

Brisbane - 938,384
Gold Coast - 48,869
Beaudesert A - 29,821
Caboolture A - 115,386
Ipswich City - 119,219
Logan City - 171,292
Pine Rivers shire - 133,778
Redland shire - 124,683
Total Brisbane - 1,733,227

Gold Coast B - 406,604
Sunshine Coast - 200,139
Moreton SD balane - 167,971
Total Moreton - 774,660

SEQ - 2,507,887

So about 175,000 higher.

I have no idea about the criteria for a city.

[Macca-GC]

Those Gold Coast figures aren't accurate. We're at about 470-480,000 total at the moment.

[Orfeo]

^^
Why am I not surprised....

I mentioned that the figures were from 2003 - None of them are accurate for now but they are the most recent numbers.

[Macca-GC]

Yeah, they're better than the 2000/01 figures. Thanks

[Neo]

Yes, I know my figures were from the 2001 Census.

I did a few calculations with the two sets and if your data is accurate (Mine was straight from the ABS site), it shows the gold coast grew the least out of the three major cities in SEQ.

SEQ Region - Grew 7.5%

Gold Coast "B"- Grew 2.5% (Including "A": 3.1%)
Sunshine Coast - Grew 4.0%
Brisbane Metro - Grew 6.0%
Brisbane LGA - Grew 5.6%

Very interesting indeed.

[Orfeo]

^
It is a quite surprising, but the GC figures are stuffed - to include tweed or not, to include Gold Coast A or not....the ABS doesn't even have a consistent policy.

Also, my figures are just estimates of growth so they could be out a lot. We'll have to wait until the next census...

[TOCC]

the only way the GC will outgrow brisbane is if it spills over the border, but then again thats not considered part of the gold coast anyway.

as for a belt between the two, hah, the only defining point between GC and Brisbane is basically Yatala Pies, the rivers mean nothing and theres no actual 'green belts' between the two.

[Jimmy James]

LOL Yatala Pies, this is true, I'm a bit taken aback with that too that Caboolture, Redlands and Pine Rivers all are shires rather than cities - what's the go?

[Blend]

who knows... lol. I dont care at all. Were part of Brisbane (Im in Pine Rivers)

I think its a bit stupid to have Ipswich and Redcliffe as cities, being that their in brisbane... but it seems to work ok.

[LA53R]

I think brisbane will swallow sunshine and gold coast in the not to distant future, i mean it only takes me 1 hour 20 mins to get from the sunshine coast (caloundra) to the gold coast (southport) and it takes that long to cross most australian cities from the outer suburbs on one side to the other so i kinda consider all of SEQ to be brisbane as its to damn close and easy to get to.

[dynamoultraclean]

Some people would believe that in 20 years SEQ will have broken off from Australia and have the largest caucasion (read: yobbo) population in the world. The population will be so great that there will be one continuous skyline from Coolongatta to Cape York with a 3000 meter monstrocity that will be referred to as A1.

In all seriousness, no second tier state city will overtake the state capital.

[Neo]

I think brisbane will swallow sunshine and gold coast in the not to distant future, i mean it only takes me 1 hour 20 mins to get from the sunshine coast (caloundra) to the gold coast (southport) and it takes that long to cross most australian cities from the outer suburbs on one side to the other so i kinda consider all of SEQ to be brisbane as its to damn close and easy to get to.

1:20 would be possible if you did 130km/h the entire way without stopping or slowing down at all. (170Km - Travelmate).

It takes me 45 minutes to get to Southport from the south side of Brisbane.

I suggest you either have a problem with your watch or a bad speeding problem.

[JayT]

I think brisbane will swallow sunshine and gold coast in the not to distant future, i mean it only takes me 1 hour 20 mins to get from the sunshine coast (caloundra) to the gold coast (southport) and it takes that long to cross most australian cities from the outer suburbs on one side to the other so i kinda consider all of SEQ to be brisbane as its to damn close and easy to get to.

I used to live in a place called Lilydale in Melbourne - it was an hour to get from there to the CBD on the train. Similarly it also takes one hour to get from Robina on the Southern Gold Coast to Brisbane CBD by train.

jt

[Jimmy James]

Lilydale is probably a lot closer than the mornington penninsula as well - considered part of the Metro Area. Interestingly it's only 1 HR Train Trip from Geelong CBD to Melbourne CBD (Without Fast Trains) and it's not considered part of the metro!

[Neo]

Well I think we can conclude that how long it takes to get from a location to the CBD by train has nothing to do with that location being considered part of the metro or not. There's really not all that much between Werribee and Geelong, except maybe Avalon.

Even when I was based at Point Cook and then Laverton, they were considered on the outskirts of Melbourne even though it was only 20 minutes to the city.

[LA53R]

1:20 would be possible if you did 130km/h the entire way without stopping or slowing down at all. (170Km - Travelmate).

It takes me 45 minutes to get to Southport from the south side of Brisbane.

I suggest you either have a problem with your watch or a bad speeding problem.

I'll admit i sit on 120km/h (only 10k over) and no i dont bother stopping accept for the gateway toll.
You did use the gateway motorway in your travelmate thingo didn't you.

[Avatar]

Some people would believe that in 20 years SEQ will have broken off from Australia and have the largest caucasion (read: yobbo) population in the world. The population will be so great that there will be one continuous skyline from Coolongatta to Cape York with a 3000 meter monstrocity that will be referred to as A1.

In all seriousness, no second tier state city will overtake the state capital.

We can only dream... I'd move there. ;)