a)2012
b)2015
c)2020
d)2025
e)2030
f)2035
g)When hell freezes over.

Keep in mind that although dictatorships are surprisingly resilient they are surprisingly more fragile than they look. State your reasons and preference.

Due to the massive changes happening since 2005, I believe they actually have good support among average people - not great, but good. So in light of that, I think they'll stay until at least 2020. After that though, it's up in the air.

Due to the massive changes happening since 2005, I believe they actually have good support among average people - not great, but good. So in light of that, I think they'll stay until at least 2020. After that though, it's up in the air.

:nuts::nuts::nuts:


EPRDF has no base whatsoever except the beneficiaries and of course Tigray/harari people. Anyone who says otherwise knows zilch about the country(EPRDF). Anyway, if 2012 is not the end of TPLF, prepare yourself for a very very long and rough ride.

Harari?

:nuts::nuts::nuts:


EPRDF has no base whatsoever except the beneficiaries and of course Tigray/harari people. Anyone who says otherwise knows zilch about the country(EPRDF). Anyway, if 2012 is not the end of TPLF, prepare yourself for a very very long and rough ride.

How do you know they have no base? I base my opinion on talking to Ethiopians who live in Ethiopia. I lived there. You, OTOH seem like a Starbucks politician.

How do you know they have no base? I base my opinion on talking to Ethiopians who live in Ethiopia. I lived there. You, OTOH seem like a Starbucks politician.

What about us we didn't lived there?

I would think at least up until 2030. I certainly hope so. The only party organized enough to jump the hurdles including climate change, the regional destabilization that will come with it, massive poverty and several secessionist movements is the EPRDF. After that year a whole generation of politicians will come into the fray so we'll see what they'll offer.

What about us we didn't lived there?

When did you live there?

I find that those who believe that EPRDF has no support outside of Tegarus are those who haven't lived (not visited, lived) in Ethiopia after 2005.

I used to think the same thing until I moved there for most of 2006 and 2007. To my surprise, a LOT of people I talked to were voting for them. When I went back in 2010 (post-election), I found it to be even more so than in 2007.
It's not that people love them - they just see them as the better option for now. I can't disagree with that.

Eprdf is going nowhere at least for a generation or two. Ethiopians are sick of war and cowardly to get rihd of them. You have poverty, treason, famine etc and they ar still there :ohno:

We in the diaspora need to sit down until the people back home get thee lazy ass up. If they can bear the suffering and humiliation without rebelling let them suffer, we might as well enjoy our lives.

We in the diaspora need to sit down until the people back home get thee lazy ass up. If they can bear the suffering and humiliation without rebelling let them suffer, we might as well enjoy our lives.
That's easier said than done. What we could do is invest back home, help the economical development, getting rid of poverty.. the rest will follow.

How do you know they have no base? I base my opinion on talking to Ethiopians who live in Ethiopia. I lived there. You, OTOH seem like a Starbucks politician.

Are you really serious? how do I know TPLF...:ohno: What's Starbucks polititian anyway? whatever that mean, I am not even politician. I can tell you from what you are writing that you grew up outside country and may be few times went back for visit and talk to few people around you. And then you conclude that Ethiopia support TPLF. just wow. unlike you, I spent my whole life there( this is the only gov't I know) except last 4 years. I suggest you go live and work there for a while and interact with Ethiopian, not just few of your probably privileged circles. If you really think, in a fair and free election, Ethiopian(exclude those i mentioned above) would vote for EPRDF, you have a lot of things to learn about the things you think you know.

Are you really serious? how do I know TPLF...:ohno: What's Starbucks polititian anyway? whatever that mean, I am not even politician. I can tell you from what you are writing that you grew up outside country and may be few times went back for visit and talk to few people around you. And then you conclude that Ethiopia support TPLF. just wow. unlike you, I spent my whole life there( this is the only gov't I know) except last 4 years. I suggest you go live and work there for a while and interact with Ethiopian, not just few of your probably privileged circles. If you really think, in a fair and free election, Ethiopian(exclude those i mentioned above) would vote for EPRDF, you have a lot of things to learn about the things you think you know.

I have lived and worked there. That's my point.

Are you really serious? how do I know TPLF... What's Starbucks polititian anyway? whatever that mean, I am not even politician. I can tell you from what you are writing that you grew up outside country and may be few times went back for visit and talk to few people around you. And then you conclude that Ethiopia support TPLF. just wow. unlike you, I spent my whole life there( this is the only gov't I know) except last 4 years. I suggest you go live and work there for a while and interact with Ethiopian, not just few of your probably privileged circles. If you really think, in a fair and free election, Ethiopian(exclude those i mentioned above) would vote for EPRDF, you have a lot of things to learn about the things you think you know.

Kata-2 you are being dishonest. After living there my entire life, I left Ethiopia only a year ago and went back a couple of moths after for the summer.They were hated by the city folk in 2005, but I can tell you in 2010 people would prefer them. I know this doesn't fit the view of the diaspora, but reality hurts sometimes.

It will likely take a military effort to remove them from power. They operate from paranoia and have no intention of relinquishing power as they believe the Amhara will be back to terrorize them. I see the Oromo taking the reigns forcefully in two or three decades in an orchestrated attack with U.S. assistance. The American government is known to be getting bored with the TPLF and will be looking for new puppets.

Kata-2 you are being dishonest. After living there my entire life, I left Ethiopia only a year ago and went back a couple of moths after for the summer.They were hated by the city folk in 2005, but I can tell you in 2010 people would prefer them. I know this doesn't fit the view of the diaspora, but reality hurts sometimes.

+1000. That's the reality on the ground. The view of the diaspora is stuck in June 2005. A lot has changed since then. Again, it's not that people love them, it's that there is no viable alternative. Absolutely no alternative. Plus, since 2005 they've actually been doing their jobs instead of just harassing the population, so that has improved their image. So even if there is a completely free election, I doubt they'd be voted out right now. You need a strong and viable opposition for that. People don't trust those who masquerade as opposition politicians.

^^ did anyone ask for your dumb opinion?


I think not.



don't you have a thread dedicated for your own country? maybe you should spend your time there.


edit: not Abesha, but the clown above.

It will likely take a military effort to remove them from power. They operate from paranoia and have no intention of relinquishing power as they believe the Amhara will be back to terrorize them. I see the Oromo taking the reigns forcefully in two or three decades in an orchestrated attack with U.S. assistance. The American government is known to be getting bored with the TPLF and will be looking for new puppets.

Why are you so concerned about Ethiopian affair when you have your own to worry about? Why don't you instead put your energy to get rid of your own mentaly unstable dictator? You don't see us go to Eritrean site and talk about Eritrea. :ohno:

Kata-2 you are being dishonest. After living there my entire life, I left Ethiopia only a year ago and went back a couple of moths after for the summer.They were hated by the city folk in 2005, but I can tell you in 2010 people would prefer them. I know this doesn't fit the view of the diaspora, but reality hurts sometimes.

lol I know you are supporter of TPLF and wouldn't say anything bad about them. anyway, I'm not being dishonest, I'm telling you what's on the ground that I know for facts. Are you saying the rest of folks like TPLF, and only the city folks hate(d) them? lol I will give you this, Most people in my area(the trend was the same in some ethnics also) voted for TPLF in 2005 solely because CUD was portrayed as Neftegna who want to bring back the old system. That doesn't mean they like TPLF.

After the election, most people realized TPLF wasn't going away so they joined respective OPDs. My buddy who had been in jail dozen times, known hard line ati-EPRDF in our area, joined them after graduation in '07. Now he runs one of a department in a kilil. BTW, Since 06 college students must sign up for EPRDF membership if they want to get a job after graduation....if you counting these people as supporter of TPLF, the joke is on you...

Btw, the reason you created this thread is to tell us how TPLF is going to stay in power for years. Well, isn't that obvious already. Personally I think, as long as Meles is alive, TPLF(Meles) will keep running the show. May be, May be...if the inflation goes up and life becomes more unbearable for folks, plus the revolutions spread to sub-Sahara, there might be a tiny window that Meles would be forced out of office. Even if the so called revolutions happens, it could still just be another blood bath for nothing.

lol I know you are supporter of TPLF and wouldn't say anything bad about them. anyway, I'm not being dishonest, I'm telling you what's on the ground that I know for facts. Are you saying the rest of folks like TPLF, and only the city folks hate(d) them? lol I will give you this, Most people in my area(the trend was the same in some ethnics also) voted for TPLF in 2005 solely because CUD was portrayed as Neftegna who want to bring back the old system. That doesn't mean they like TPLF.

No, I'm not Einstein. Why is it that anyone who force feeds you reality, is a TPLF supporter? The CUD never had party structure in rural areas. They won in the cities because of that. That shows their ultimate contempt for the concept of democracy. They seem to think elite support in the city and in the diaspora is equal to support in the entire country. Stop resorting to conspiracy theories to justify your beloved opposition's failure.


After the election, most people realized TPLF wasn't going away so they joined respective OPDs. My buddy who had been in jail dozen times, known hard line ati-EPRDF in our area, joined them after graduation in '07. Now he runs one of a department in a kilil. BTW, Since 06 college students must sign up for EPRDF membership if they want to get a job after graduation....if you counting these people as supporter of TPLF, the joke is on you...


Like I said, they are a lesser evil. The prospect of the opposition ruling is what truly gives me the chills.

Btw, the reason you created this thread is to tell us how TPLF is going to stay in power for years. Well, isn't that obvious already. Personally I think, as long as Meles is alive, TPLF(Meles) will keep running the show. May be, May be...if the inflation goes up and life becomes more unbearable for folks, plus the revolutions spread to sub-Sahara, there might be a tiny window that Meles would be forced out of office. Even if the so called revolutions happens, it could still just be another blood bath for nothing.


Wow, talk about leaps of logic.So now your telling me the purpose of my own thread? Your attitude is why I'll never trust the opposition. Intolerant, conspiracy minded, unrealistic, self-righteous and hypocritical. The very anti thesis of democracy. I agree with the rest of your statement though. Buckle up, because we're in for a long ride.

It will likely take a military effort to remove them from power. They operate from paranoia and have no intention of relinquishing power as they believe the Amhara will be back to terrorize them. I see the Oromo taking the reigns forcefully in two or three decades in an orchestrated attack with U.S. assistance. The American government is known to be getting bored with the TPLF and will be looking for new puppets.

:rofl:
Whatever floats your boat, buddy.

Most people in my area(the trend was the same in some ethnics also) voted for TPLF in 2005 solely because CUD was portrayed as Neftegna who want to bring back the old system. That doesn't mean they like TPLF.
That's the problem..

If there were free elections.. by that, I'm not only referring to the counts, but a real free election which includes free campaigning around the country without harassment.. equal share of media exposure etc etc.. there's no chance in hell that this government would win IMO.

Such environment will also lead to more people getting involved in politics, instead of just a few brave ones, or the old guys that's stuck in the past.. this government has successfully closed off any competition by portraying the opposition parties as a threat..

if they stabilized the current inflation, probably they will stay until 2025.most of EPRDF's plans are untill 2025 including ethiopian air line, electric power, making ethiopia middle class income and others. But with 36% inflation, i assume they will fall before 2015.

EPRDF is going nowhere A, Its just the facts!

I think the diaspora should just focus on liberalizing the economy and forget getting rid of "hadigh". As long as the economy grows and they continue to reduce poverty what can we do.

We in the diaspora cant be "keyboard jockeys'" and "armchair politicians" about things. We are no there to bear the consequences. Anybody can talk, but who will do!

I dont think EPDRF going anywhere at the moment, they are well organised , financially strong ,have well developed cadre network, a lot of membership and specially well liked by the country side dwellers.The Ethiopian people are not stupid they know if EPDRF goes there is no any other party that has party capacity to lead a very complex and difficult country.
The other reason people are some what happy because of economical activity people got money specially farmers (went to agaro and saw how farmers are in a trance staus buying consumer goods like mobile phones ,TV ,imported cloths ,building houses from chika bet to korkoro bet, expanding farms ,generators, pumps etc...