만약 가능하게된다면 캐나다와 멕시코, 스페인을 제치고 세계 8위라네요. (다음 카페회원님들이)


[한국경제 2004-11-03 17:10]

"환율 하락 덕에 2만달러 달성 빨라진다"


최근 들어 원.달러환율이 하락한 영향으로 올해 1인당 국민총소득(GNI)이 예상 보다 높게 나올 것으로 전망된다.

1인당 GNI는 달러로 환산해 집계하는 만큼 환율이 떨어지면 그만큼 규모가 커지 기 때문이다.

지난달 초만 해도 1천1백50원대를 오르내리던 원.달러환율은 이달들어 1천1백 10원대까지 한달새 40원가량 급락했다.

현재 환율이 연말까지 지속되면 올해 연 평균 환율은 지난해(1천1백91원80전)보 다 3.5%가량 낮은 1천1백50원선 안팎으로 떨어지게 된다.

환율효과 만으로 GNI는 앉아서 3% 이상 늘어나는 셈이다.

또 GNI는 실질 국내총생산(GDP)와 달리 물가 상승분이 그대로 반영되는 "명목 지표"다.

따라서 소비자물가 상승률(올해 3%대 후반 예상)만큼 자동으로 규모가 커지게 된다.

여기에다 경제성장률(5% 안팎 예상)까지 더하면 올해 GNI는 작년에 비해 대략 12% 가량 올라갈 것이란 추계가 가능하다.

작년 1인당 GNI가 1만2천6백46달러였으므로 이같은 예상을 반영하면 올해 1인당 GNI는 1만4천달러를 넘어서게 된다.

재정경제부 관계자는 "환율 물가 성장률 등 3대 변수가 앞으로도 올해와 같은 추세로 움직인다면 계산상으론 3년안에 1인당 소득 2 만달러를 웃돌수도 있다"고 말했다.

올초 한국은행이 국민소득 집계방식을 변경,지난 95년 이후 1인당 GNI가 일률 적으로 1천달러 안팎씩 높아진 것도 2만달러 고지에 좀 더 다가서게 만든 요인 이다.

실제로 지난 2002년 1인당 GNI는 종전 1만13달러에서 1만1천4백93달러로 1천4백 80달러 늘었고,2001년은 9천달러에서 1만1백62달러로 불어났다.

한은 관계자는 "현 시점에서 2만달러 달성시점이 빨라질 것으로 예단하기엔 이르지만 세계적인 달러 약세(원.달러환율 하락) 기조로 인해 1인당 소득에서 반사이익을 얻고 있는 것만은 사실"이라고 진단했다.

안재석 기자 yagoo@hankyung.com

만약 가능하게된다면 캐나다와 멕시코, 스페인을 제치고 세계 8위라네요. (다음 카페회원님들이)


[한국경제 2004-11-03 17:10]

"환율 하락 덕에 2만달러 달성 빨라진다"


최근 들어 원.달러환율이 하락한 영향으로 올해 1인당 국민총소득(GNI)이 예상 보다 높게 나올 것으로 전망된다.

1인당 GNI는 달러로 환산해 집계하는 만큼 환율이 떨어지면 그만큼 규모가 커지 기 때문이다.

지난달 초만 해도 1천1백50원대를 오르내리던 원.달러환율은 이달들어 1천1백 10원대까지 한달새 40원가량 급락했다.

현재 환율이 연말까지 지속되면 올해 연 평균 환율은 지난해(1천1백91원80전)보 다 3.5%가량 낮은 1천1백50원선 안팎으로 떨어지게 된다.

환율효과 만으로 GNI는 앉아서 3% 이상 늘어나는 셈이다.

또 GNI는 실질 국내총생산(GDP)와 달리 물가 상승분이 그대로 반영되는 "명목 지표"다.

따라서 소비자물가 상승률(올해 3%대 후반 예상)만큼 자동으로 규모가 커지게 된다.

여기에다 경제성장률(5% 안팎 예상)까지 더하면 올해 GNI는 작년에 비해 대략 12% 가량 올라갈 것이란 추계가 가능하다.

작년 1인당 GNI가 1만2천6백46달러였으므로 이같은 예상을 반영하면 올해 1인당 GNI는 1만4천달러를 넘어서게 된다.

재정경제부 관계자는 "환율 물가 성장률 등 3대 변수가 앞으로도 올해와 같은 추세로 움직인다면 계산상으론 3년안에 1인당 소득 2 만달러를 웃돌수도 있다"고 말했다.

올초 한국은행이 국민소득 집계방식을 변경,지난 95년 이후 1인당 GNI가 일률 적으로 1천달러 안팎씩 높아진 것도 2만달러 고지에 좀 더 다가서게 만든 요인 이다.

실제로 지난 2002년 1인당 GNI는 종전 1만13달러에서 1만1천4백93달러로 1천4백 80달러 늘었고,2001년은 9천달러에서 1만1백62달러로 불어났다.

한은 관계자는 "현 시점에서 2만달러 달성시점이 빨라질 것으로 예단하기엔 이르지만 세계적인 달러 약세(원.달러환율 하락) 기조로 인해 1인당 소득에서 반사이익을 얻고 있는 것만은 사실"이라고 진단했다.

안재석 기자 yagoo@hankyung.com

ㅋㅋ 우스운얘기지만 제예상하고 놀랍게도 일치하네요 저는 2008년경에 2만불돌파를 예상했었는데 ㅋㅋ 진짜 내생각대로 되네요 역시 기적을 일으키는나라네요 2020년까지 G7도 달성하길

근데.. 그러면 환율이 1000원대 미만으로 떨어져야 될텐데요... 그렇게 되면야 좋겠지만 약간 현실성이 없는 듯.. 저는 2010년경으로 예상하고 있었거든요.

아, 참고로 캐나다를 2010년 전에 따라잡을 확률은 환율 변수가 있다고 해도 거의 없다고 보셔야 합니다. 캐나다 달러가 30% 가까이 폭등하고 계속 올라가는 판에...

GDP per capita at EXCHANGE RATES don't do anything for Korea. You're still earning and paying the same amount for the same things.

All this will do will increase imports (more BMWs and Louis Vuitton) and decrease exports (less Samsung LCDs in the US). That's why Korea and Japan (for instance) have very similar standards of living despite a huge difference in exchange rate GDPs.

What you REALLY want is an increase in GDP per capita at PPP - which means greater earning power for people and a higher standard of living. Exchange rate fluctuations don't have anything to do with this.

The $20k per capita GDP campaign promise is basically BS.

GDP per capita at EXCHANGE RATES don't do anything for Korea. You're still earning and paying the same amount for the same things.

All this will do will increase imports (more BMWs and Louis Vuitton) and decrease exports (less Samsung LCDs in the US). That's why Korea and Japan (for instance) have very similar standards of living despite a huge difference in exchange rate GDPs.

What you REALLY want is an increase in GDP per capita at PPP - which means greater earning power for people and a higher standard of living. Exchange rate fluctuations don't have anything to do with this.

The $20k per capita GDP campaign promise is basically BS.

I noe but we already achieved over 20000$ at PPP but actually economists prefer exchange rate rather than PPP

I noe but we already achieved over 20000$ at PPP but actually economists prefer exchange rate rather than PPP


만약에 대비해서 한글로 적으시지..

아무튼 맞아요 PPP는 올해 2만 1500달러라고 본적이 있습니다

오늘자 기사 입니다.

음 누구님말대로 유럽은 환율을 유럽식 평가방식으로 바뀐뒤에 Gdp가 엄청 뛰었습니다.그때문에 한국이 프랑스와 이태리를 제치는건 꽤 어렵겠네요.. 캐나다는 모르겠지만 캐나다의 인구 증가율이 높기때문에 따라잡을수없다고 런던님이 말씀하신거 같은데 오히려 인구증가율이 떨어지면 Gdp는 커집니다.
밑에 기사처럼 올해 1인당 GNI가 2천달러 이상 급증할거라고 예상되지만 실질 소득은 증가율이 매우 낮네요



경기는 꽁꽁 얼어붙고 서민들의 주름은 깊어져도 올해 1인당 국민소득(gni)은 크게 늘어날 전망이다.
물가와 원화가치는 뛰고 출산률은 낮아지는 ‘양고일저(兩高一低)’에 따른, 통계적 착시인 셈이다.

9일 한국은행과 통계청에 따르면 원화의 급속한 절상과 물가의 고공행진이 연말까지 지속될 경우 우리나라 국민 1인당 Gni는 지난해 1만2,646달러에서 금년엔 1만4,000만달러를 넘어설 것으로 추정된다.

1인당 Gni는 인플레요인을 제거하지 않은 명목가격과 달러화로 표시되기 때문에 물가상승률이 높을수록, 원·달러 환율이 하락(원화절상)할수록 늘어난다.

또 인구증가율이 낮아질수록 1인당 Gni는 커지게 된다.

1~10월중 평균환율은 1,160.30원. 그러나 지난달말 이후 가파른 원화절상으로 1,000원대 진입이 초읽기에 들어간 데다 이 추세는 상당기간 지속될 것으로 보여 연간 평균환율은 1,140원대도 충분히 가능해 보인다.

작년 평균환율(1,191.85원)과 비교하면 금년 절상폭은 4.5% 안팎에 이를 전망이다.

또 5%안팎의 실질성장률과 4%를 웃도는 물가상승률을 감안할 때 올 명목 경제성장률은 8~9%에 이를 전망. 한편 낮은 출산률로 인구증가율은 갈수록 둔화, 통계청은 금년도 추계인구증가율이 작년(0.60%)보다 낮은 0.57% 정도에 그칠 것으로 예상한 상태다.

결국 지난해 소득(1만2,646달러)에 명목성장률(1.08)과 원화절상률(1.045)를 곱하고 인구증가율(1.0057)로 나누면 금년도 1인당 Gni는 1만4,000달러를 훌쩍 뛰어넘게 된다.

실질성장은 겨우 5% 턱걸이가 예상되지만, 환율과 물가 영향으로 달러표시 1인당 소득은 두자릿수의 증가율을 기록하게 되는 셈이다.

지난해에도 실질성장은 3.1%에 그쳤지만 물가영향으로 명목성장이 5.4%에 달했고, 환율이 4.9% 절상되면서 1인당 소득은 10%가량 증가(1만1,493달러→1만2,646달러)했다.

before to check "disable smilies" when you are posting something in korean ;)

I noe but we already achieved over 20000$ at PPP but actually economists prefer exchange rate rather than PPP

Depends on the subject. If it is a country's economic power, it should be raw GDP - not GDP per capita. If it is a country's standard of living, it should be PPP.

Raw GDP per capita is good for understanding two things: (1) a country's ability to export products elsewhere and (2) a country's ability to purchase foreign products.

캐나다는 모르겠지만 캐나다의 인구 증가율이 높기때문에 따라잡을수없다고 런던님이 말씀하신거 같은데 오히려 인구증가율이 떨어지면 Gdp는 커집니다.


인구증가율이 높으면 당연히 GDP는 커집니다. 인구증가율이 떨어질 때 오르는 건 1인당 GDP/GNI죠.... :)

인구증가율이 높으면 당연히 GDP는 커집니다. 인구증가율이 떨어질 때 오르는 건 1인당 GDP/GNI죠.... :)

사실 캐나다 경제를 따라잡는다고해도 교육분야나 이런쪽은 아직 미흡하죠.. 정치분야등 고칠게 많습니다

재정경제부 관계자는 "환율 물가 성장률 등 3대 변수가 앞으로도 올해와 같은 추세로 움직인다면 계산상으론 3년안에 1인당 소득 2 만달러를 웃돌수도 있다"고 말했다.




this prediction seems come true..
this year's GDP per capita is probable to be US$20,000
and it took really three years from the prediction.

but ironically,, can't be just glad about the figure...
IMO, many problems remain still..

well... this would had been a great news if it happened a few years ago....

but.. the threshold for "high income country" status has been moving up and up...
now... it is around 40,000 US$ per year or at least 35,000 US$.

Lee Myung-bak's presidential campaign seems to be focusing on the '747' plan which is: 7% per year economic growth, $40,000 GDP per capita income, and 7th. largest economy in the world. He thinks that it will happen within 5 years.

How will S. Korea be able to achieve this? Is this feasible and will his campaign promise come true?

$40,000 within 5 years is very hard to achieve. I don't think it will be possible to do so. $30,000 maybe but $40,000, i'm highly dubious that it's achieveable. Korea is at around $26,400 avg GDP / Capita according to the information provided by CIA World Factbook. I'd say the max goal they would probably be able to achieved is around $31~33 grand...and if they do achieve that, that would be an inconceivable achievement.

Lee Myung-bak's presidential campaign seems to be focusing on the '747' plan which is: 7% per year economic growth, $40,000 GDP per capita income, and 7th. largest economy in the world. He thinks that it will happen within 5 years.

How will S. Korea be able to achieve this? Is this feasible and will his campaign promise come true?

this is no problem. Elect me as president and I promise I can make the GDP grow as much if not more ;).

Here's what I'd do: bleed the people red with taxes. Increase expenditure to the military and to universities/research centers. Force corporations to declare income correctly - bleed them red with taxes too.

wow.. koreans would then be the "richest" people on earth... i'd be a hero.. :D

It's possible to to achieve it. Korean markets, especially financial & service sectors, haven't been fully opened up yet. It's getting there but rather slowly past 10 yrs. IF the next president get rid of all the bureaucratic regulations and open up ALL the markets up to Singapore's standards, then it can surely make it. No doubt about that. Also endorsing the FTAs with US and EU will speed things up a bit as well.

Does anyone know what the GDP and the GDP Per Capita will be for Korea this year? Perhaps, can anyone make an educated guess as to what GDP and GDP per capita Korea will have by the year 2010?

I read that "most" economists belieave that Korean nominal (not PPP) GDP
will reach or surpass 1 Trillion US$ and the per capita GDP(again nominal) will
surpass almost for sure 20,000US$ mark. Since S. Korea has population of 49million
and not exactly 50 million... passing 20,000 per capita seems surer than passing
1 Trillion total.

It seems most strong economies are experiencing their currency gaining value against US$.
Depending on how much "worse" the US economy goes, the GDP of these
countries can rapidly increase in dollar terms.

I read that "most" economists belieave that Korean nominal (not PPP) GDP
will reach or surpass 1 Trillion US$ and the per capita GDP(again nominal) will
surpass almost for sure 20,000US$ mark. Since S. Korea has population of 49million
and not exactly 50 million... passing 20,000 per capita seems surer than passing
1 Trillion total.

It seems most strong economies are experiencing their currency gaining value against US$.
Depending on how much "worse" the US economy goes, the GDP of these
countries can rapidly increase in dollar terms.

Now that Lee Myung bak is elected president, does anyone anticipate that he and his team will help transform Korea's living standards up in par with the United States?

The United States does have a GDP Per capita of over $40000. So if Korea accomplishes its aspiration of reaching the $40000 per capita milestone, will it be sustained and continue to go for new records? Will Korea reach $40,000 in 5 years?

I bet that the next presidential election in 2012, a potential candidate might call for Korea to reach a new ambitious milestone of reaching $80,000 (GDP Per Capita).

Well, my guess is that huge projects like the canal LMB's been planning would dramatically lift GDP, though GDP itself may not be such a reliable measure for wealth and standard of living.

well... the economy always comes to mind first with LMB as presidenct elect.

From what I read, on top of the current 5% annual growth, with 20 Billion US$/year of additional investment, the growth rate would increase to 7 %. Remember 20Billion is that additional 2% of the 1 Trillion dollar korean economy.

Now, how to get that 20Billion dollars?
By doing away with the regulations imposed during Roh and previous regimes
and creating a friendly environmnet for the companies to invest...
The korean/foreign companies are sitting on top of huge chunks of money... but afraid
to use them for fear of government messing around.

I really have high expectations with Lee MB!
I actually believe that he is our man to make that 747 dream possible
(maybe not in 5 years but at least steer the country in the right track).

I also hope he can raise the country profile.
To many developed nations in the west, Korea does not yet mean "advanced", "developed"
, "free", "cool","powerful",etc. Clear disctinction from the neighbours is needed
in order to increase the brand power as a country.




"747 = 7% annual growth, 40 Thousands/year GDP, 7th largest world economy"

well... the economy always comes to mind first with LMB as presidenct elect.

From what I read, on top of the current 5% annual growth, with 20 Billion US$/year of additional investment, the growth rate would increase to 7 %. Remember 20Billion is that additional 2% of the 1 Trillion dollar korean economy.

Now, how to get that 20Billion dollars?
By doing away with the regulations imposed during Roh and previous regimes
and creating a friendly environmnet for the companies to invest...
The korean/foreign companies are sitting on top of huge chunks of money... but afraid
to use them for fear of government messing around.

I really have high expectations with Lee MB!
I actually believe that he is our man to make that 747 dream possible
(maybe not in 5 years but at least steer the country in the right track).

I also hope he can raise the country profile.
To many developed nations in the west, Korea does not yet mean "advanced", "developed"
, "free", "cool","powerful",etc. Clear disctinction from the neighbours is needed
in order to increase the brand power as a country.




"747 = 7% annual growth, 40 Thousands/year GDP, 7th largest world economy"

I agree with your assessment that President elect Lee Myung bak will bring an economy first administration and style of governance. Korea needs a serious leader who can bring the entire nation back on its feet. Lee Myung bak is that man.

I heard that he wants to reduce corporate tax rates to more competitive levels as well as using a Singaporean economic theory which allows state-run industries like the Industrial Bank of Korea and many others to be fully privatized.

I do hope that Pres. Lee's economic policy will help Korea to grow more efficiently but one must realize that oil prices are getting closer to $100 per barrel and also the US Dollar is getting weaker. The Korean Won may reach to below 800 level by the end of next year.

Also, the United States will have a presidential election in a year. This could influence Korea's economy since a lot things might change in the US after the elections. Pres. Bush will termed out and be replaced by someone. We don't know since we may never know who the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees will be until the primaries are over.

My guess is that will be Hillary Clinton versus Mike Huckabee. It may a close presidential race in my opinion much like the 2000 race between Gore and Bush.

Some predicted that if Hillary Clinton becomes president next year then relations between S. Korea and the US may moderate since the Democratic Party and the Clintons supports a more softer approach towards North Korea. I hope I'm wrong about this.

Lastly, I heard that there will be an National Assembly election on April of next year. If Pres. Lee's Grand National Party provides an majority of seats then I'm pretty sure that his economic policies will go through smoothly.

I'm kind of afraid how he will approach the horrible economy Korea currently has, but I have faith in him and believe he will be able to revive the economy.

I realized how no one was willing to donate to the Salvation army and other donation boxes. Some were even completely empty this Christmas.

Last year, I saw so many of em nearly filled.

Even banks are starting to have problems nowadays...which is somewhat a big deal.

I hope he can bring the economy back up and develop the nation into a business-friendly environment to allow more investment.