Tamil Nadu Vision 2023 [Archive]

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 07:44 PM

The document is extremely well written with such a clarity that I havent seen anything like this coming out of any government agency till now. The fact that it was prepared by a professional consultants with assistance form Asian Development Bank has definitely helped. It is a far cry from the mundane planning commission reports put out by GoI.

The report is very realistic and maps out achievable goals. I have given my comments below.

1. The increase of percapita to 10000 dollars is highly ambitious but definitely not impossible. The same goes to the target of 11% annualized growth.

2. Focus on infrastructure and the plan to increase the state's expenditure from the current 4-5% of GSDP to 10% by 2015 and 11.5% is welcome.

3. 15 lac crore expenditure over 11 years is within the realms of achievable particularly if private sector is given a favourable environment to profit from the opportunities available.

4. The state government is wisely planning to take the brunt of expenditure in the initial years (upto 60%) before a momentum gathers in the private sector.

5. Benchmarking TN with Korea, Thailand and Malaysia is welcome. These are countries with similar landmass and population and the policies can be replicated here.

6. The target of increasing the manufacturing share from 16% to 22% while maintaining the service at around 60% is logical. It is heartening to see the govt's vision for SME's which have been the bulwark of TN's industrialization.

7. The thrust on education is welcome. The target of universal secondary education and 50% vocational or college education is quite easy particularly considering that the state is already close to achieving the former. IMO, vocational and college education could be set a little higher (60-66%).

8. The thrust on urban infrastructure is welcome. Substantial allocation has been earmarked for water supply and sanitation in the urban areas.

9. In power sector, 20000 MW of conventional power is quite good but I am disappointed with the renewable target. Wind and solar targets could have been easily double of what is targeted. Also there is no mention of biogass generation and usage particularly in the rural areas.

10. Formation of centre's of excellence (COE) in various fields is a great step in making the state the innovation and knowledge hub.

11. A clear fiscal roadmap is created. It is obvious that the planners are not building castles in the air. They have clearly understood the limitations of the state government. However, for such high investment to come from public and private entities, spending has to be shifted from consumption to investment. How this will be achieved - how consumption will be decreased and diverted to investment is not clear. Particularly, some taxation road map could have been provided.

12. Establishing growth corridors is welcome. They are geographically well spread out and will bring all round development. The amount allocated (1.5 lac crores) is sizable unlike the joke GoI pulled off in the case of DMIC (17500 crores).

13. It is good to see the potential of tourism realized but it is disappointing to see no discussion on development of marine tourism (beyond a single pointer in a table). Neither is marine economy discussed in the document except a para about shrimp processing and export. Unfortunately a large part of TN's poor are concentrated in the coastal areas. Slips like these can give an impression of the document being high flying and urban friendly but ignoring atleast some of the ground realities.

14. The document draws a blank with respect to relations with other states and disputes with Sri Lanka (katchatheevu and fishermen issues). An ideal vision document should have all these things.

15. While talking about agriculture, there is no specific mention of TNAU. They are doing some pretty relevant work alone and with collaboration of Israelis. The govt should first remove the communication gap between the farmers and TNAU. More centres of TNAU should be opened in the districts and information disseminated. The document just talks generically about "research institutions" and "R&D capacity" without going into specifics. This shows lack of sincerity on the part of the document makers in not taking sector specific experts on board.

16. Plans to increase water levels and storage is welcome.

17. IMO, HSR and greenfield airports are a waste of resources. They can be better utilized by funding IR's project (100% if needed) on doubling, tripling, quadrupling tracks and establishing DFC's. Capacity particularly in freight is much more important than speed.

18. Mono/metro for two cities apart from Chennai is planned. They should have planned atleast two more (Trichy and Salem). Cities like Tiruppur, Vellore would also cross the 1 million threshold by 2023 and some mass transport solutions could have been discussed for them too.

Overall, a very satisfying document. Good to see governments starting to get out of the fire fighting mode and think ahead. There are some things which could have been better but it good enough for me as a reference document.

Rating: 8/10

Thats it for now. I will post more if I realize something later.

kannan infratech

March 22nd, 2012, 08:08 PM

Thanks Shyam

Your summary may help many who are lazy to go thro the entire document.

Another positive thing I observe is that the Govt will discuss the ways to implement the vision with all stake holders through many forums. This way, more inputs are expected and better result.

Compared to many other states, TN through TWAD has achieved a fairly high %age of Protected Water Supply even in Rural areas. But sewer treatment & sanitation is woefully inadequate even in Chennai, Coimbatore & Madurai. ADB & JAICA are ready to fund these projects.

If the Govt (CG & SG) spends all the Edu cess it collects, then it may do wonders.

Power Policy is very good in paper, but too much dependence on exteraneous facors. If CG pulls the plug, SG may not achieve.

Transport is very very ambitious. PPP mode has to succeed. More risks. But I am positive.

Excellent on Industrial development & growth corridors. Very much doable if power situation improves.

As per the esperts, Metro / Mono may have a reasonable ROI only in CBE other than Chennai. Unless a cluster concept is developed, mono in other places may not fetch reasonable ROI, they say. Industrial development has to happen first to achieve better commuter numbers.

If JJ is able to solve the power crisis within the next few months, Then she may achieve a considerable success in achieving her vision.

Let me say Cheers and drink to that :cheers:

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 08:20 PM

Didn't we have wishlists before? How long should we be content with just wish-lists? I agree that this wish list is little detailed than others (as a state). But majority of corporations had even more detailed wishlists than this. What did the state do to back them up? And give me one reason why we should hold this document upto higher standards than others (meaning corp)

I'll be more than happy to take all these words back when a strategy and tactics follow this so-called vision.

KT:

http://i44.tinypic.com/9kpjcl.jpg

As given in page 7, this document is Phase 1 - vision formulation. They will come up with DPR's and implementation roadmaps in future phases. Looks credible and unlike anything seen before. And unlike the past, we actually have the financial and technological capability to implement them this time around. So I am optimistic.

satchitananda

March 22nd, 2012, 08:20 PM

@Kannan

One of the areas of grave need is water resources.. I think RWH of her previous governance was a great move. But the next logical step is to give more focus on tanks, storage systems, increasing local mechanisms to retain water. This can be first tested in some small river basin and subsequently scaled up for entire TN.

Also critical is to prevent the abuse of groundwater.. Depleting beyond their recharge capacity is a grave situation.

Bottom line, not only policy level changes, but also its enforcement (like slums or encroachments around water bodies) has been traditionally lacking.. due to lack of vision or will.

The reason I raised it in vision 2023 is, it will be futile to be sitting in one of the rainfall rich areas and have paucity of potable water.. She has already initiated some measures to include newer water sources for Chennai as instance.

Wonder if we can push for some policy level inclusion for basics.. Things like increased access to Toilets

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 08:27 PM

kannan infratech

March 22nd, 2012, 08:29 PM

@ Satchi:

Thanks for bringing that up. Actually when more areas are urbanised & industrialised, water needs will increase manifolds. TN has raped and is raping its water resources. RWH is only a small part. Effective usage, recycling are more important. Generally any place gets 85% of the water used as sewerage and 80% of that can be reused after treatment. In TN we have say for 100% water consumption, 85% sewerage is generated but no reuse - almost NIL

Unless you have a sewer system in place, it is not possible to reuse.

Desal is very costly and not enviro friendly and that should be used where ever there is acute shortage and affordable (for eg for industrial supplies)

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 08:29 PM

kannan infratech

March 22nd, 2012, 08:33 PM

Shyam

There were talks of CNG / LNG imports directly (not thro CG) by stake holders but it did not find mention. Port based import of oil & NG is the only solution. Off shore exploration may also help in future.

Arul Murugan

March 22nd, 2012, 08:34 PM

1. Improving water resource comes under agriculture with 16,000 crores invesment (restoring, interlinking will find place here) and

2. 24*7 drinking water supply for urban centers (combined to 2,00,000 crores urban development)

finds place in the vision.

krishnaswamy

March 22nd, 2012, 08:35 PM

Visions are good..Brain storming..Realistic..bla..bla..
Ellam Seri..Othukirom...
but where is the path for Vision to be implemented?
what are the milestones towards the Vision?
Where is the source to fund our visions?..
what is the guarantee, that vision is accepted by musical round of Political parties?
what are the next steps/Plans on those vision?
how it is going to be executed into projects? any timeline on arriving at the projects for these visions?

satchitananda

March 22nd, 2012, 08:39 PM

^^
I think you should browse the full document once more.

This is like Phase I.. declaring their vision.. Phase II and II to follow, per the document itself.

kannan infratech

March 22nd, 2012, 08:45 PM

Kris

Neenga udane 1 kg Asoka Halwa vum, Medhu pakkodavum, Kumbakonam degree coffee um koduthu anuppunga. Room pottu yosichu solrom :lol:

Jokes Apart....

It is jsut the beginning, One good thing is that they are able to come out with a document like this which means lots of inputs.

It is not SG alone. CG, PPP partners, foreign investing Govts, ADB, JAICA etc etc.... Long way to go. It is just 10+ years for implementation and is very ambitious.

Each dept has to come out with anticipated budget first and then resources -available and to seek for.

If they tackle Water, Power & Edu & Training, others are not so difficult to manage.

Konjam Porumaya irunga.:)

karkal

March 22nd, 2012, 08:47 PM

This years budget on Mar 26 will be an indication whether this is just a vision document (or) she's planning to incorporate few of those in it.

satchitananda

March 22nd, 2012, 08:50 PM

One of the critical areas, I studied the document, she has emphasized on ecology as well (not enough though)... is .. cleaning up of water resources like Cooum, Bhavani, Noyyal.. (my heart goes to these once up a time cradles of TN civilisation)..

(Both solid and liquid) Waste management is another key focus area IMHO.

One criticial implementation lacuna has been lack of planning departments which also enforce zoning and standards.. for eg., except few of the locales like Anna Nagar in Chennai, most of the development is random.. as you go farther from the core city.. hence the road standards etc are not maintained. A visit to a place like Thiruninravur may give a graphic idea..

They must also take advantage of better planning tools like GIS.

kannan infratech

March 22nd, 2012, 08:50 PM

2012-13 will be planning stage.

TN Govt will spend more during the initial years to give an impetus and after that the PPP partners have to step on the pedal on their own.

kannan infratech

March 22nd, 2012, 08:51 PM

satishanu

March 22nd, 2012, 08:57 PM

17. IMO, HSR and greenfield airports are a waste of resources. They can be better utilized by funding IR's project (100% if needed) on doubling, tripling, quadrupling tracks and establishing DFC's. Capacity particularly in freight is much more important than speed.

+1.

@Arul: Very good thread. We can check if we are making progress to the goal of achieving vision 2023.

Lets hope the most valuable/important ones gets accomplished first.

kongutamizhan

March 22nd, 2012, 09:02 PM

There are lot of places where current / operational enviroments will make it challenging

Foremost, forget talking about this vision being achievable without quality power across the state within the next 8 months to 1 year. She conviniently ignored this short to medium term need. 10-13 hours powercut is not going to cut it. Use the same redundant answer to your first 2 points. Now coming to your points answers in red.

The document is extremely well written with such a clarity that I havent seen anything like this coming out of any government agency till now. The fact that it was prepared by a professional consultants with assistance form Asian Development Bank has definitely helped. It is a far cry from the mundane planning commission reports put out by GoI.

The report is very realistic and maps out achievable goals. I have given my comments below.

1. The increase of percapita to 10000 dollars is highly ambitious but definitely not impossible. The same goes to the target of 11% annualized growth. [How? You will already lose one year without significant improvement on power-front. This means that we have to achieve around 12% and more. You have to better China with simple chain of command and have the ability to clear obstacles with ease. Easier said than done]

2. Focus on infrastructure and the plan to increase the state's expenditure from the current 4-5% of GSDP to 10% by 2015 and 11.5% is welcome. [Refer to #1 answer]

3. 15 lac crore expenditure over 11 years is within the realms of achievable particularly if private sector is given a favourable environment to profit from the opportunities available. [When private sector is invovled, public have to shell out more for services, like more tolls for usage of roads, more money to use metro/mono etc., if we use PPP model there. I welcome it. But as a society are we ready for it? Will individuals have enough money to afford for it?]

4. The state government is wisely planning to take the brunt of expenditure in the initial years (upto 60%) before a momentum gathers in the private sector. [How is this feasible? Where SG is going to get its money from. We don't even have money to build simple parks or flyovers and gajana is gaali as per CM]

5. Benchmarking TN with Korea, Thailand and Malaysia is welcome. These are countries with similar landmass and population and the policies can be replicated here. [Being soveriegn nations, Korea or Thailand had several advantages over TN which is a state of a soverign nation. Invalid comparison. Ideal comparison would be to compare a province or state within a country. You have to consider foreign assistance or powerful bodies like OIC's assistance to those countries which we will lack]

6. The target of increasing the manufacturing share from 16% to 22% while maintaining the service at around 60% is logical. It is heartening to see the govt's vision for SME's which have been the bulwark of TN's industrialization.[utopian]

7. The thrust on education is welcome. The target of universal secondary education and 50% vocational or college education is quite easy particularly considering that the state is already close to achieving the former. IMO, vocational and college education could be set a little higher (60-66%). [Agreed]

8. The thrust on urban infrastructure is welcome. Substantial allocation has been earmarked for water supply and sanitation in the urban areas.[Agreed on financial numbers, but don't we have enough experience with it on execution? I am not buying into this unless they show it on action on completing existing projects]

9. In power sector, 20000 MW of conventional power is quite good but I am disappointed with the renewable target. Wind and solar targets could have been easily double of what is targeted. Also there is no mention of biogass generation and usage particularly in the rural areas. [I wish they said something like operating government buildings, street lights, traffic signals using solar to begin with (across the state). Something like this itself will be a huge step forward. As it stands I am confused with the energy vision. No clarity and highly ambiguous. I have to understand their vision first before commenting on it and to be honest I din't understand the vision here]

10. Formation of centre's of excellence (COE) in various fields is a great step in making the state the innovation and knowledge hub. [Good, but have to wait for implementation road map and further details]

11. A clear fiscal roadmap is created. It is obvious that the planners are not building castles in the air. They have clearly understood the limitations of the state government. [Disagree. They don't] However, for such high investment to come from public and private entities, spending has to be shifted from consumption to investment. How this will be achieved - how consumption will be decreased and diverted to investment is not clear. [Exactly my first few points] Particularly, some taxation road map could have been provided.[+1]

12. Establishing growth corridors is welcome. They are geographically well spread out and will bring all round development. The amount allocated (1.5 lac crores) is sizable unlike the joke GoI pulled off in the case of DMIC (17500 crores). [Theoretically welcomed, but factually experience tells me otherwise unless they prove it on action]

13. It is good to see the potential of tourism realized but it is disappointing to see no discussion on development of marine tourism (beyond a single pointer in a table). Neither is marine economy discussed in the document except a para about shrimp processing and export. Unfortunately a large part of TN's poor are concentrated in the coastal areas. Slips like these can give an impression of the document being high flying and urban friendly but ignoring atleast some of the ground realities.[Tourism again ambiguous, they should have atleast identitified and should have given an indication at 30,000 ft level now about identifying areas, type of tourism, transportation, safety etc. Without details I am going to stay neutral on this for now,]

14. The document draws a blank with respect to relations with other states and disputes with Sri Lanka (katchatheevu and fishermen issues). An ideal vision document should have all these things. [+1]

15. While talking about agriculture, there is no specific mention of TNAU. They are doing some pretty relevant work alone and with collaboration of Israelis. The govt should first remove the communication gap between the farmers and TNAU. More centres of TNAU should be opened in the districts and information disseminated. The document just talks generically about "research institutions" and "R&D capacity" without going into specifics. This shows lack of sincerity on the part of the document makers in not taking sector specific experts on board. [plus no mention on ground water level improvement, connecting water bodies, checkdams etc.,]

16. Plans to increase water levels and storage is welcome. [refer above]

17. IMO, HSR and greenfield airports are a waste of resources. They can be better utilized by funding IR's project (100% if needed) on doubling, tripling, quadrupling tracks and establishing DFC's. Capacity particularly in freight is much more important than speed. [For a change I think this as positive]

18. Mono/metro for two cities apart from Chennai is planned. They should have planned atleast two more (Trichy and Salem). Cities like Tiruppur, Vellore would also cross the 1 million threshold by 2023 and some mass transport solutions could have been discussed for them too. [+1, and I wish they formed more CMDA like authorities too. In some cases combining 2 nearby cities/towns to form twin cities]

Overall, a very satisfying document. Good to see governments starting to get out of the fire fighting mode and think ahead. There are some things which could have been better but it good enough for me as a reference document.

Rating: 8/10

Thats it for now. I will post more if I realize something later.

kannan infratech

March 22nd, 2012, 09:03 PM

Depending on CG funding esp for Railways development in TN has been the low point so far.

CG & IR also are starved now for funds and so TN will always be a soup boy.

So getting out of CG & IR clutches and start an independent self sustaining model may be the ideal solution. IR will play spoil sport for sure.

Vazha vazhiyum panna mattanga.. Thaniya vazha vidavum mattanga

It is the biggest challenge for TN Govt.

krishnaswamy

March 22nd, 2012, 09:06 PM

^^
I think you should browse the full document once more.

This is like Phase I.. declaring their vision.. Phase II and II to follow, per the document itself.
great.. now only i saw the screenshot of the same..
If Phase 2 starts before 2015, it will be good...:cheers:

krishnaswamy

March 22nd, 2012, 09:09 PM

Kris

Neenga udane 1 kg Asoka Halwa vum, Medhu pakkodavum, Kumbakonam degree coffee um koduthu anuppunga. Room pottu yosichu solrom :lol:

Jokes Apart....

Konjam Porumaya irunga.:)
yes sir...Kandippa, whenever i am coming to chennai lets meet.

ennodya kavalai enna-na..Mamata Didi too prepared Railways 2020(?) or 2025. but she is opposing any hike fare. Expecting CG to fund...CG in turn taxing us...
Mamata's vision is sleeping in IR. I think Lalu also had 1 and that is also sleeping.

anthe documents mathiri ithuvum, JJ veetu Beero-le thoongira poguthu..

Nallathu nadantha seri...

kongutamizhan

March 22nd, 2012, 09:22 PM

fyi, for those who know me personally you know that I am not a nay-sayer. But I am made one when it comes to our government projects and effciency.

krishnaswamy

March 22nd, 2012, 09:27 PM

But I am made one when it comes to our government projects and effciency.
Kt: ithukke neenga ippadi sollitta eppadi?
imagine about "north" states, where delivery is not as much as good in South..

kongutamizhan

March 22nd, 2012, 09:30 PM

Kt: ithukke neenga ippadi sollitta eppadi?
imagine about "north" states, where delivery is not as much as good in South..

10/100 vangunaalum sari, 20/100 vaangunaalum sari rendum fail than :lol:

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 09:34 PM

How? You will already lose one year without significant improvement on power-front. This means that we have to achieve around 12% and more. You have to better China with simple chain of command and have the ability to clear obstacles with ease. Easier said than done

The fact that power situation is worsening itself counter intuitively points to the state's growth. I am pretty sure the growth rate this year is not going to be zero or negative.

When private sector is invovled, public have to shell out more for services, like more tolls for usage of roads, more money to use metro/mono etc., if we use PPP model there. I welcome it. But as a society are we ready for it? Will individuals have enough money to afford for it?
The bulk of the investment is envisaged in the power and transport infra and engaging private players in nothing new. Also in agri sector, lot of processing plants are planned. They can be developed either in PPP or in co-op model.

How is this feasible? Where SG is going to get its money from. We don't even have money to build simple parks or flyovers and gajana is gaali as per CM

A neat table is given in page 38 breaking down the investment for each year

http://i41.tinypic.com/10rlheo.jpg

This year, a total of 41000 crores is planned out of which around 50% would be expected from the state government - so somewhere around 20000 crores. That is not impossible for a state which will present a budget with total expenditure of around 1,40,000 crores. They have clearly stated that FRBM will be maintained.

Being soveriegn nations, Korea or Thailand had several advantages over TN which is a state of a soverign nation. Invalid comparison. Ideal comparison would be to compare a province or state within a country. You have to consider foreign assistance or powerful bodies like OIC's assistance to those countries which we will lack
In matters of monetary policy, yes they are not comparable. But the comparison in the document is w.r.t ease of doing business indices (page 42)

http://i39.tinypic.com/2j4svvl.jpg

The comparisons are every bit valid in this case. Further ADB, WB, JICA do fund TN specific projects.

utopian
Substantiate

Agreed on financial numbers, but don't we have enough experience with it on execution? I am not buying into this unless they show it on action on completing existing projects
That is upto you.

I wish they said something like operating government buildings, street lights, traffic signals using solar to begin with (across the state). Something like this itself will be a huge step forward. As it stands I am confused with the energy vision. No clarity and highly ambiguous. I have to understand their vision first before commenting on it and to be honest I din't understand the vision here
Yeah the details are limited particularly w.r.t renewables. Have to wait for further clarity.

Disagree. They don't
Please take a look at the tables again.

plus no mention on ground water level improvement, connecting water bodies, checkdams etc.,
Should be available in the DPR's

For a change I think this as positive
For a change, I am pretty sure they cant implement it :)

karkal

March 22nd, 2012, 09:40 PM

Textile sector to be major beneficiary of vision 2023: SIMA (http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/wire-news/textile-industry-to-be-major-beneficiaryvision-2023sima_684175.html)

He urged the Chief Minister to consider two centres of excellence for skill development with R&D facilities -- one in Madurai and another in Coimbatore-- which are the Centres for textile business and textile cluster. He also lauded the importance given for innovation and development of SMEs.

kongutamizhan

March 22nd, 2012, 10:10 PM

The fact that power situation is worsening itself counter intuitively points to the state's growth. I am pretty sure the growth rate this year is not going to be zero or negative.

Show me the data to substantiate the co-relation

A neat table is given in page 38 breaking down the investment for each

oh no!! I should have added a note that please don't refer to that chart :) I am challenging this chart only (yes I went thru it). Dalapathy padathula Rajini

Rajini: Kavalapadatheenga devavukku onnum aagathu
Banupriya: yaaru dr sonnaara?
Rajini: ille devave sonnan

So devavae sonnan maadiri reference (namma gov kittenthe) kudukatheenga :lol: Namma government-e than gajana gaalinum solluthu. Is that not contradictory?

Substantiate

Well in business terms you need to spend more money and energy to get new customers than to retain existing ones. That explains why every management (whether government or private) talks about customer service and that also explains why you see all those customer service survays, quality survey's etc., This is not my quote. Again this is a fact that is theoretically and statistically proven. I can talk about it all day long if you want to.

Having said that do you have an idea of how many industries moved out of business or shut-doors and moved elsewhere in the western belt? Do you know what it takes to get them back? Do you know that in all probability we may not get them back? You can never achieve sustainable manufacturing share of 22% (in Indian context) without encouraging SME's. Of-course if you are China and if you have the mass production capability and ability to attract huge corporations anywhere near their scale then yes. Now touch your heart and say are we anywhere close to it?

Coming back to services, it is bound to decline sir. I am saying this from my experience with last 4 years of statistics of my company. Year after year presence of non-Indian companies in services have been increasing slowly but steadily. For confidentiality reasons I may not be able to provide my company data, but can provide several peer-reviewed journal references if you want (as attachment). PM me with your email if you are interested. And also look at today's news

http://www.theoutsourceblog.com/2012/03/offshoring-to-india-will-end-in-8-10-years-report/

Unless we look at internal requirements/needs that is bound to be stagnent. Forget about knowledge based outsourcing. That ain't coming our way and US want to retain high-value jobs. Our companies have to do value addition and induldge in brand building and government alone can't do anything about it. There are several external factors. That's why I said utopian (because as a country and private Indian corps, we haven't even started thinking about it)

krishnaswamy

March 22nd, 2012, 10:22 PM

Kannan Sir,
TN Advisory Panel-a 4-5 Seat-a pidinga...
our guys are much stronger than "visionary" Oppicers....

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 10:34 PM

Show me the data to substantiate the co-relation

The FY ends only in March and the data will be available only in december or even after that. As a reference, TN grew 11 odd% in 2009-10 and 10% in 2011 and there was a power crisis then too. Are you really suggesting that the numbers for FY12 will be negative??

oh no!! I should have added a note that please don't refer to that chart
That chart is reasonable and well within the realms of possibility. If you do not want me to refer to the chart, then it is your duty to show me why you are saying so. It is certainly not financial fantasy. It looks convincing to me.

Having said that do you have an idea of how many industries moved out of business or shut-doors and moved elsewhere in the western belt? Do you know what it takes to get them back? Do you know that in all probability we may not get them back? You can never achieve sustainable manufacturing share of 22% (in Indian context) without encouraging SME's. Of-course if you are China and if you have the mass production capability and ability to attract huge corporations anywhere near their scale then yes. Now touch your heart and say are we anywhere close to it?
Last measured, industry and construction is 47% of Chinese GDP. We are talking about 22% in 11 years. Why are we talking about emulating china here? We are already at 16.6% and the document talks about increasing it to 22% - Just 5.4% improvement in relative terms.

R2IChennai

March 22nd, 2012, 10:40 PM

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 10:41 PM

http://www.theoutsourceblog.com/2012/03/offshoring-to-india-will-end-in-8-10-years-report/

Unless we look at internal requirements/needs that is bound to be stagnent. Forget about knowledge based outsourcing. That ain't coming our way and US want to retain high-value jobs. Our companies have to do value addition and induldge in brand building and government alone can't do anything about it. There are several external factors. That's why I said utopian (because as a country and private Indian corps, we haven't even started thinking about it)

The document does not talk about or talk only about outsourcing based economy. Our own middle class is burgeoning which will create its own demand for manufacturing and services. The govt needs to create proper infra and a conducive environment for capturing that market. This document is about that only. Even now, only 20% of our economy is outside trade (import+export). It is a myth to think that India is supported by off shored jobs. I dont have the data for TN per se but I dont think it is much different. We are very much a consumption oriented economy and there is almost unanimous agreement on that count among economists.

kongutamizhan

March 22nd, 2012, 10:42 PM

^^ If that chart is reasonable many of the projects announced during DMK period are reasonable and the cost involved to execute them are peanuts comparted to what is mentioned on that chart. Many including Kannan in this forum said that DMK announced them without money on purse. We have been complaining that even CG doesn't give us the share of tax money. CM says it day in day out.

With all this I am surprised that you don't question the contradictory data provided by our government with such relatively huge numbers and you find that reasonable

kongutamizhan

March 22nd, 2012, 10:43 PM

It is a myth to think that India is supported by off shored jobs. .
I am not saying India is supported by offshore jobs. I am specifically saying that our services sector is supported by offshore jobs.

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 10:49 PM

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 10:50 PM

I am not saying India is supported by offshore jobs. I am specifically saying that our services sector is supported by offshore jobs.

Indian GDP is close to 2 trillion $; 50% is service; IT export is 100 billion - do the math.

R2IChennai

March 22nd, 2012, 10:53 PM

Indian GDP is close to 2 trillion $; 50% is service; IT export is 100 billion - do the math.

Ripple effect in IT is pretty big
Lets add the ripple effect also i dont know what multipliers to add here..

wlbkng

March 22nd, 2012, 10:54 PM

Spl kudos to Kannan sir, Arul and N.Kumar whose inputs were there in this doc.

R2IChennai

March 22nd, 2012, 10:56 PM

How are we going to achieve 5% growth in Agri? I thought its declining with less arable resources with increased expenditure and unreliable water source?

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 10:57 PM

Ripple effect in IT is pretty big
Lets add the ripple effect also i dont know what multipliers to add here..

That is true and I totally accept it. But short of complete isolation, every country has that exposure. I cant think of any large economy without even that kind of global exposure.

kongutamizhan

March 22nd, 2012, 10:59 PM

Indian GDP is close to 2 trillion $; 50% is service; IT export is 100 billion - do the math.

Gr8 how much do we spend on IT to cater to our IT company / IT and ITES professionals need? Miniscule. I said the same thing too, (and this is not the first time in the forum unlike you are also selective about my posts).

Yes our internal demand can cater to our IT/ITES pros and companies needs for next 20 years. But no one is thinking about it except you and me. Our movers and shakers till run after US and Europe money. Unless that changes nothing will change.

I remember post office announcing some grand IT automation work few months back. Not sure if we made any progress there. Any updates?

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 11:00 PM

How are we going to achieve 5% growth in Agri? I thought its declining with less arable resources with increased expenditure and unreliable water source?

Yes that part will be the toughest IMO. They have some roadmap for increasing water availability. Also a lot of food processing and preserving industries are planned locally. They talk of some shrimp export zones. It is a little sketchy as of now.

Details will be available later in the phase 2 document.

kongutamizhan

March 22nd, 2012, 11:01 PM

Look, I dont know whether these will be implemented or not. But if it were to be implemented, this is how it will start.

Like Vicvin posted before, that is how it started in 1998 for the golden quadrilateral. The vision is ambitious, targets are realistic and capability within our means.

Whether this will TN's golden quadrilateral or a flop show, only time will tell.

And dont forget there is a huge spectrum of possibility between those two extreme ends. Suppose total failure is 0 and unqualified success is 100, there is a very good chance that a score of >70 can be acheived by 2023.

Have you read GQ vision document when it was announced? That had roadmap which gave the confidence. Further want to know execution flaws on that? (Not to put that down, even 50% is achievement), but just read this article from Jeyamohan

http://www.jeyamohan.in/?p=24977

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 11:02 PM

Gr8 how much do we spend on IT to cater to our IT company / IT and ITES professionals need? Miniscule. I said the same thing too, (and this is not the first time in the forum unlike you are also selective about my posts).

Yes our internal demand can cater to our IT/ITES pros and companies needs for next 20 years. But noone is thinking about it except you and me. Our movers and shakers till run after US and Europe money. Unless that changes nothing will change.

I remember post office announcing some grand IT automation work few months back. Not sure if we made any progress there. Any updates?

I dont get your first line. Regarding post office, no idea but HCL won the aadhar contract (2200 crores I think).

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 11:05 PM

Have you read GQ vision document when it was announced? That had roadmap which gave the confidence. Further want to know execution flaws on that? (Not to put that down, even 50% is achievement), but just read this article from Jeyamohan

http://www.jeyamohan.in/?p=24977

My exposure of GQ is limited to TN and NH 5 (Chennai Kolkata). In these parts, the execution is flawless. That is why I took that example.

kongutamizhan

March 22nd, 2012, 11:11 PM

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 11:15 PM

krishnaswamy

March 22nd, 2012, 11:18 PM

Spl kudos to Kannan sir, Arul and N.Kumar whose inputs were there in this doc.
what are they? how they have given their input?

TShyam

March 22nd, 2012, 11:23 PM

what are they? how they have given their input?

Through Kannan sir. He was asked some feedback in these matters by the IAS officials last year in May.

ramendu.ganguly

March 22nd, 2012, 11:40 PM

The news of this plan is going to be greeted with great optimism by our politicians. Money allocated for infrastructure and development means a fantastic opportunity for them to pocket a big slice of it.

After reading about how much money our country lost because of the coal mines scam(many times bigger than 2G scam), I don't very optimistic after coming across news like this.

I really don't know much about Jayalalithaa or Tamil Nadu politics, but our nation is plagued with corrupt politicians who have hindered our growth by 40-50 years.

The only way I will ever be optimistic about the future of our country is when we have a strong anti-corruption bill in place because then I can be sure that at least SOME of the money that is set aside for infrastructure and development will be properly used.

kongutamizhan

March 22nd, 2012, 11:46 PM

^^ whatever you said is highly possible

satchitananda

March 22nd, 2012, 11:50 PM

^^ Further GQ is focused one-point project. TN vision is diversified. The more you diversify more the complexity and you have to address them from multiple cues. This document didn't help address any of any of the hows?.

Detailed project report and roadmap will be available on 2015? c'mon are you kidding me? So you have only 8 years after that report to implement? That throws a suspision on how serious the government is and that's why I said it's a wishlist and not vision

What do you expect.. Tell nothing as a vision and get everything secretly done ?? OR just let things go as it is.

There is no one cookie cutter approach. The intent has been expressed. Nothing wrong. Depends on the details and implementation to follow.

If you want everything planned to the Tee then it will be akin to getting all the lights green when you drive to work.

I think no one is foolish here to believe that everything spelled out will end up as reality in the stipulated time. This is more like a guideline. For instance, if they say Mono for Kovai and end up as Metro or vice versa depending on later inputs... either way is fine as it would be better than now.. (nothing)

This is neither a political manifesto nor a corporate project. I think most of the folks are happy to have a more scientific approach to development. I hope you are not criticising just for the sake of argument. Message is simple.. good first step,,, many more to follow.. its like baby took first steps.. but the eventual goal is to hit a marathon in so many years.. better than a legless child ..

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 12:38 AM

What do you expect.. .

SMART goals.

R2IChennai

March 23rd, 2012, 01:01 AM

SMART goals.

first Vision, then Themes and then comes Goals and Objectives
so wait...

Happy to see atleast we are here, To be honest I have never seen this kind a well thought through document from any babus aka oppicers so far especially focussing on competitive space as well

chennaidesi

March 23rd, 2012, 01:12 AM

Yes and I liked the emphasis for Science and Technology.
Really speaking TN's situation is kind of identical to Germany and Japan because we dont have any resources unlike orissa etc and we dont have water also only decent amount of land so we have to grow within this limitations and i always think Germany and Japan (mainly manufacturing is the only solution for sustained economic growth).

When 80 Million germans can export 1 Trillion why TN is doing only 25 Billion why not at least aim for 250 Billion by 2025 and it is probably possible.

chennaidesi

March 23rd, 2012, 01:16 AM

Ripple effect in IT is pretty big
Lets add the ripple effect also i dont know what multipliers to add here..

For auto sector it is 4 not sure about the multiplier for IT investments.
Also India's total IT sector is 100B not exports(exports only 60B)

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 01:18 AM

first Vision, then Themes and then comes Goals and Objectives
so wait...

There is a subtle difference between vision and goal. Are we ready for a broader/complex vision? We should think about that before coming up with vision. If we are not then we should have SMART goals/objectives, accomplish them fill the gap and be ready for vision (unless you address the gap strategically as part of your vision).

http://www.precisionessay.com/2011/07/goals-vs-vision/

When Kannan asked us last April it started well with short / medium term goals before even starting vision 2025 document. But how many of those short and medium term goals are achieved in 1 year? (short term meant for under 6 months). he knows :-)

Government conveniently ignored current acute power situation and companies / SME's fleeing the state while preparing for the vision. Addressing them should have been a pre-requesite task which should have accompanied in run-up to the vision

Do you think that the gap will be addressed as part of vision? Time will tell, I will be here and you are going to be here. We'll see

Anniyan

March 23rd, 2012, 01:19 AM

I wish Pondicherry comes up with similar vision document, atleast for tourism.

R2IChennai

March 23rd, 2012, 01:25 AM

There is a subtle difference between vision and goal. Are we ready for a broader/complex vision? We should think about that before coming up with vision. If we are not then we should have SMART goals/objectives, accomplish them fill the gap and be ready for vision (unless you address the gap strategically as part of your vision).

http://www.precisionessay.com/2011/07/goals-vs-vision/

When Kannan asked us last April it started well with short / medium term goals before even starting vision 2025 document. But how many of those short and medium term goals are achieved in 1 year? (short term meant for under 6 months). he knows :-)

Government conveniently ignored current acute power situation and companies / SME's fleeing the state while preparing for the vision. That should have been a pre-requesite task which should have accompanied the vision

Do you think that the gap will be addressed as part of vision? Time will tell, I will be here and you are going to be here. We'll see

Isnt the first page executive page can be called goals or objectives
essentially raise the percapita income to 10000$ in 2023 and removing poverty completely what needs to happen to get thier is given in detail

11% growth is one of measurable metrics

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 01:40 AM

Isnt the first page executive page can be called goals or objectives
essentially raise the percapita income to 10000$ in 2023 and removing poverty completely what needs to happen to get thier is given in detail

11% growth is one of measurable metrics

Dude you are still talking about vision and not the prerequesites that go with it. You are ignoring current conditions.

Heard of Kotter's 8 step model? What we are missing is #1 and #2. At the risk of repeating again and again, vision without #1 and #2 and a vision that ignores current condition is a wishlist. We jumped directly to #3 and that too without the often accompanied piece with vision

http://s13.postimage.org/60rjblezr/Screen_Shot_2012_03_22_at_6_34_14_PM.jpg

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 01:50 AM

We would really appreciate if you present your own version of "SMART" vision document. Otherwise we wont get an idea of what you are talking about and what should have the government done differently.

You are saying power power.. KKNPP is coming online, Vallur and North Chennai would be hopefully ready by June or July.. what more would you like to do? Surely the officials or Kannan cannot go and rotate the turbines with their hand themselves right?

This Kotter and keeter things are just beating around the bush. Give us a specific, concrete and scientifically workable alternative proposal which is also financially viable.

R2IChennai

March 23rd, 2012, 01:51 AM

Why do you say 1 and 2 is not there?
do you want a 2 page report saying that how bad we are so we need to get here?
will that be sufficient?

Actually those 8 steps areneeded for an organizational change, In our case we are not making an organizational change in a corporate sector to follow some cookie cutter Spec template.

In essence all of us agree we need to get to 10K USD from today and how about achieving it in 11 years is sustained by 11% growth with focus areas. I am not saying this document is sufficient in achieving those but this well beyond starting point

I have not seen these 8 steps in anyother major vision statements that comes out from a country

To me Vision staements of Abu dhabi, Dubai, Kenya, s.Korea all of them have similar ingridients. I wish I could find some vision statements from 1970s from those Asian tiger economies

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 01:55 AM

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 01:56 AM

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 02:01 AM

This is what is recommended by NASA. As someone who is working on town-planning projects I can vouch that things are changing following this model. Kotter is not a keeter or beating around bush. If you have limited knowledge about something, don't put it down. Having opposing view is fine, but I expect same standard of references.

fifty per cent of transformational initiatives fail at this first phase. If it is not even done, well then flip a coin for the probability of its success

Source (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=kotter%208%20steps%20government&source=web&cd=18&ved=0CFoQFjAHOAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwiki.nasa.gov%2Fcm%2Fwiki%2FFederal%2520Knowledge%2520Management%2520Working%2520Group%2520(KMWG).wiki%2F1002533main_20090408_Ch_Mgt_AG_Report_MJN.doc&ei=nLtrT8_9Oabd0QGfzrm_Bg&usg=AFQjCNHmORj_iZNdhHwA-nSJ-Ev2ZX-4Fg&cad=rja)

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 02:09 AM

I am not putting anything down but asking for a workable proposal. You can say, this and this aspect of Kotter's steps can be used to do this and this in our case. Unless you are specific like that, it will be beating around the bush only.

I can post some Stephen Hawking's physics theory and say the same thing. But how will we know it is relevant unless you actually link it up and give us real world examples relevant to this case (vision 2023)?

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 02:22 AM

I am not putting anything down but asking for a workable proposal. You can say, this and this aspect of Kotter's steps can be used to do this and this in our case. Unless you are specific like that, it will be beating around the bush only.

What is the specific thing you are looking at? One person putting together a government's vision?:lol: I have given you an indication of how to bring a change and provided references of what vision is and how to bring change through a peer reviewed journal from NASA for better understanding of the framework (and not just mere steven hawking quote). I have 10 years of experience in the industry (you don't have to believe me but can't deny my references unless you want to come up with something better). I know how things are done and changes are brought and envisioned in government (that has real concern for people ofcourse). I can point out with detailed references and discussions about the framework, and yes I can suggest few too like anybody else here.

I am doing more than what anyone else does in this forum for a honest discussion by providing reputable references always. I don't have any vested business interests in doing so. I am purely doing it for academic purpose to play devils advocate and bring in alternate point of view. I expect same for the counter argument if you want to take discussion to the next level.

From the references in that paper (and the paper itself) statistically you can infer the importance of step #1. There are data to prove that a vision or change that don't do a good job at #1 fails for 50% of the time.

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 02:27 AM

Very good idea. I will try to get some vision statements from the net if possible. I will try Korea, Taiwan, China, Malaysia, Thailand as these were/are resource restricted and are relevant to TN. ME countries cannot act as a template for TN because we are not exactly floating on a sea of oil.

Korea couple of decades back moved from $1000 per capita economy to a $10000 per capita economy in a decades time.....which will be a very good example to look at. For not only on vision but also all its execution plans both good and bad and learn from it.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 02:28 AM

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 02:29 AM

Korea couple of decades back moved from $1000 per capita economy to a $10000 per capita economy in a decades time.....which will be a very good example to look at. For not only on vision but also all its execution plans both good and bad and learn from it.

Yeah thats what I searched first.

I am currently reading this (http://countrystudies.us/south-korea/47.htm).

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 02:42 AM

This statement is about step 3. You cant really expect how urgency is established in these documents. This is like a company's balance sheet. Raw numbers backed by logic. Besides you havent really explained what is wrong with the document.

Red box is what is wrong with the document. This is done without taking into consideration (or ignoring) the following. Wait I am not even getting into execution. Execution will be a show-stopper and not mere problem :)

1) current conditions
2) desired condition
3) or what are the restraint forces

http://s18.postimage.org/4d81v7djt/Screen_Shot_2012_03_22_at_7_38_25_PM.jpg

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 02:46 AM

Ok, I am reading through some assorted documents and I will scribble here whatever occurs to me so that I will not forget in later.

All these countries had some prerequisites before the "launch"

1. Very high literacy rate - they are all in the 80-90% bracket.
Japan had it in 50's, Korea in the 70's and China in the 90's
Interestingly TN has reached that milestone in 2011 census.

2. Export orientation. No country has developed without undervaluing their currency and overwhelmingly favoring exports

3. Capital formation: in the initial stages, savings are stimulated and invested in capital forming assets. Without control over monetary policy, the only way I see that happening is by raising local interest rates and actively discouraging consumption. All items of luxury has to be heavily taxed.

More later..

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 02:49 AM

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 03:02 AM

^^ Address the pre-reqs before getting to the vision. Have SMART goals and generate small wins. Vision itself can combine several small wins (#6 of kotters 8 step). We'll know if they will do it when we get there.

Whether it is done as part of vision or outside it, more important thing is it has to take current condition into account (which they failed). By current condition I just don't mean power. I gave power as just one example. It is beyond power like what needs to be done for the people to meet PPP service expenses, come up with plan/procedure for removal of obstacles, form a guidance team, define authority, establish chain of command etc.,

At present the document just speaks about dreams and conveniently ignores vision for limitations. Vision should include addressing limitations a part of it. Include that first.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 03:04 AM

^^ Address the pre-reqs before getting to the vision. Have SMART goals and generate small wins. Vision itself can combine several small wins (#6 of kotters 8 step). We'll know if they will do it when we get there.

Whether it is done as part of vision or outside it more important thing is it has to take current condition into account where they failed. By current condition I just don't mean power. It is beyond power like what needs to be done for the people to meet PPP services, come up with plan/procedure for removal of obstacles, form a guidance team etc.,

At present the document just speaks about dreams and conveniently ignores vision for limitations. Include that first.

I think I get it. You need time based targets right?

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 03:08 AM

cont..

Mass urban migration.. I think TN is in the middle of such a transition. Urban infra needs to be upgraded. I feel it is adequately addressed in the document.

Explosion in the development and usage of public transport. Metros and monos becomes imperative.

more latter..

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 03:08 AM

^^ yes

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 03:14 AM

^^ yes

Hopefully those will available in a few months.. For example, It is quite clear how they are going to achieve 20 GW of power. It will be based on two 4 GW plants and an assortment of other smaller plants. When and where they will be built, we will get to know soon.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 03:19 AM

Cont..

All these society achieves progressively higher complexity.

This is why DPR's of the COE's becomes really important. When and where they will be setup, what will be the mandate, what would be the funding. What would be the intake capacity. Everything becomes very important if local R&D needs to be fostered.

Similarly, tax breaks and other incentives for companies with significant inhouse R&D needs to be spelled out.

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 03:57 AM

KT Vs TShyam = Ind Vs Pak
KT Vs Arul. = Ind Vs Aus
Wow!What a match...
getting to know lot of things in different perspective....
Always Healthy discussion does matter

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 04:00 AM

$1600 * 70 million = $112 billion = 634000 crores (current GSDP)

$10000 * 70 million = $700 billion = 2000000 crores (2023 GSDP as per vision document0.

That means Re will appreciate to 30 to $

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 04:10 AM

KT Vs TShyam = Ind Vs Pak
KT Vs Arul. = Ind Vs Aus
Wow!What a match...
getting to know lot of things in different perspective....
Always Healthy discussion does matter

Enna paatha Pakistan maathiri irukka?:guns1: :gunz: :horse:

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 04:13 AM

^^
KT Vs TShyam = Ind Vs Pak
KT Vs Arul. = Ind Vs Aus
Wow!What a match...
getting to know lot of things in different perspective....
Always Healthy discussion does matter

Another one. India eppa parthalum adi vanguthunnu solla vareengala? :guns1:

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 04:16 AM

Karkal, where did you get the 20lac crore figure? Document la kaanom.

kvijayasundaram

March 23rd, 2012, 04:19 AM

Since this thread is hyperactive and getting updates by minutes. I thought I will also chime in and say few words.

+ ves
-Written very extensively and covers almost all aspects of development.
-Focuses on existing strengths and talks about how to utilize those to the achieve some of the goals.
-Some of the visions/goals are realistic and achievable in near future or already in-progress( i.e: LNG terminals, Medical college in every district, Greenfied Airport at Chennai, Madurai-tuticorin industrial corridor, etc, etc)
-Some of the visions of prev govt like PCICR, ITR, Aero-park have not been discarded/shunned citing personal ego and other political crap.
-Projects a nice and clear picture about intentions/goals of the state govt, thereby creating a positive vibe among investors and local business folk.
-Puts us on the international business radar and gives us better visibility.

- ves
- Investment figures envisioned are astronomical, cooked-up, unaccountable, and simply ridiculous, "at least looking at the current situation".
- Doesn't mention anything about bringing radical policy changes that will facilitate this kind of investments.
- No mention about ways to build land banks for projects, when most of the investments are shunning TN due to difficulties in land availability. This will be a show stopper and must have been addressed in the vision document.
- No clear cut mention about ways to eliminate red tapism, and speedy clearances. especially when most of those multicrore investments envisioned could be stuck in desk of environmental ministry for years and sabotaged by so called social activists.

Without addressing all these points, the above document would remain a piece of fictitious literature, perhaps a nice read that gives a kick to enthusiastic readers.

P.S: Also I am little disappointed that the country specific industrial/residential estates for Japan, Korea and Europe announced by prev govt, find no mention in the list.

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 04:21 AM

-del-

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 04:22 AM

Karkal, where did you get the 20lac crore figure? Document la kaanom.

Below post...last table

Total investment projected for 2023 on Infra

http://i39.tinypic.com/2n6dt95.jpg

But how this is feasible financially??

The expenditure on infrastructure creation in
Tamil Nadu has been estimated at 5% of GSDP at
present (this includes infrastructure creation by
government and the private sector). The XII Five
Year Plan is targeting an infrastructure creation
at the all India level at 10% of India’s GDP. In line
with this, Vision 2023 seeks to increase the annual
infrastructure spend13 in Tamil Nadu to 10% of
GSDP to be achieved by 2015 and further to 12%
from 2021 onwards and maintain thereafter at
this level

Present and future financial key parameters of TN gvt.

http://i42.tinypic.com/2h2mhps.jpg

Projected % spending on infra from state's projected GSDP by 2023 and the cummulative value for next 10-12yrs.

http://i41.tinypic.com/33y5gyo.jpg

This post from Arul.

Arul Murugan

March 23rd, 2012, 04:31 AM

Spl kudos to Kannan sir, Arul and N.Kumar whose inputs were there in this doc.

yaen ungala vittutingae.. The ppt had professional touch because of wlbkng skills.:cheers:

what are they? how they have given their input?

Mainly on HSR, Expressways. CBE/MDU monorail were contributed by respective forum members.

Through Kannan sir. He was asked some feedback in these matters by the IAS officials last year in May.

That is different. On HSR/expressway it happened in Nov-Dec.:)

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 04:35 AM

Wow that was a good one Karkal! I totally missed it.

Here is the explanation. The thing is that the figures in the table is in current prices. If you account for inflation (say 5%) then, the nominal GSDP in 2023 will be 20lac crore*1.7 = 34 lac crore. Now if you calculate, the conversion rate is maintained.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 04:39 AM

That is different. On HSR/expressway it happened in Nov-Dec.:)

I was not informed of it because I am an official HSR opponent? Not at all fair :madwife:

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 04:39 AM

R2IChennai

March 23rd, 2012, 04:51 AM

KT Vs TShyam = Ind Vs Pak
KT Vs Arul. = Ind Vs Aus
Wow!What a match...
getting to know lot of things in different perspective....
Always Healthy discussion does matter

pechu vakkla KT ya Hero akitanga erkanave avaru namitha keparu ippo hansika motwani, taapsee panna ellam sethu keka poraru

R2IChennai

March 23rd, 2012, 04:55 AM

Red box is what is wrong with the document. This is done without taking into consideration (or ignoring) the following. Wait I am not even getting into execution. Execution will be a show-stopper and not mere problem :)

1) current conditions
2) desired condition
3) or what are the restraint forces

http://s18.postimage.org/4d81v7djt/Screen_Shot_2012_03_22_at_7_38_25_PM.jpg

Thanks for playing devil's advocate to bring alternate point of view but do you think these theoretical formulaes will fit in a single vision document? I disagree but lets move on.

In my opinion, The first two points mentioned in by kotter is addressed implicitly may be if you have time you can give a 2 paragraph write up as an addendum for that document we in the forum will approve and send it to TN govt (no need to be verbose just two paragraph)

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 05:03 AM

So the investment on infrastructure should also be inflation adjusted on each years budget.

Yes! Thats correct. the total investment is 15 lac crore in current rupee terms.

I will calculate the nominal expenditure
.
.
.

21,65,635.38 crores and not 15 lac crore rupees!! Guys there is no mention of this in the document.

Now I really want to get a second opinion about this figure. Any economics graduate here?

P.S: Karkal, you nailed it!

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 05:09 AM

Just for clarification, here are my calculated numbers (in crores upto 2 digits)

year 0 - 25393
year 1 - 43753.5
year 2 - 67686.89
year 3 - 98167.76
year 4 - 113899.01
year 5 - 146023.20
year 6 - 170190.81
year 7 - 207372.83
year 8 - 242782.87
year 9 - 296595.34
year 10 - 347239.61
year 11 - 406530.56
---------------------
Total - 2165635.38
---------------------

R2IChennai

March 23rd, 2012, 05:15 AM

Here is gujarat
http://www.gidb.org/downloads/vol_1B_summary_2020.pdf

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 05:24 AM

Pls dont make this into TN GJ slugfest.

Arul Murugan

March 23rd, 2012, 05:27 AM

I was not informed of it because I am an official HSR opponent? Not at all fair :madwife:

Lol.. no. Athu eppadiyo start panni engaiyo poiyi mudinchathu. :)

====================================================

It would be great if we can discuss what is the present condition, spending sector wise which will help us to know whether targets are realistic. I will dig out for energy sector first.

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 05:47 AM

Below post...last table

This post from Arul.

This is for those who live and breath statistics. My point is numbers can be interpreted to prove anyways. Those who are into serious statistics should know what I am talking about

Null Hypothesis (Or H0)

Government investment as given by karkal data is going to increase GSDP value as cited by gov (karkal)

Alternate Hypothesis (or HA)

The investment numbers won't be sufficient to create the growth

Significance level - 5% or 0.05

Here is the original data

http://s16.postimage.org/y4rh3s5ed/origdata.jpg

Regression results

I ran a simple regression (one tailed test) on the above data and got the following result. Something to note

1) Very high f-value, meaning the value is going to fall to far right on the bell curve
2) Probability value for base (null) hypothesis came really low.
3) My r-squared value is around 90% meaning technically data is good for use

check all highlighted (yellow) values

http://s14.postimage.org/hllcrzoe9/regresults.jpg

How to read regression results?

My level of significance is 5% (0.05). The p-value that I arrived at is far lower than that and hence I am rejecting the base hypo here

http://s14.postimage.org/kgyfyuse9/rejectnullhyp.jpg

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 05:50 AM

^^ Again my work here is not to prove anything right or wrong. I just wanted to show how you can interpret numbers the way you want to. Raw numbers again don't mean anything.

The above is assuming that government investment is the only factor that is going to affect the GSDP. I'll add equal PPP for private, double the number and run the analysis tomorrow if anyone is interested. Considering high f-value and very low p-value that I got from the above regression, I still think that null hypothesis will be rejected. Anyways got to go to bed. Will do this tomorrow.

Chew over it in the mean time. Night night :)

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 06:09 AM

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 06:13 AM

Excuse me you have inverted the null and alternate hypothesis.

Here the null hypothesis is that investment has no correlation. The value of 540 means that the variation of GSDP is 540 times greater than unexplained residual variation. You cannot choose whatever null and alternative hypothesis you want :lol:

When the F test value is high, it means there is correlation and one column explains the other!

ANOVA tells you that at-least one factor is relevant and co-relation exist (thru f-value) yes!!. Is the one on right not gov investment? Then why are you saying that I reversed null hypo?

Arul Murugan

March 23rd, 2012, 06:23 AM

. Is the one on right not gov investment? ?

The one in the right is total investment and not gvt investment alone.

http://i39.tinypic.com/ae737n.jpg

In 2023

TN gvt investment would be - 66553 crores
CG investment would be - 71307 crores and
private investment would be - 99829 crores

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 06:26 AM

The one in the right is total investment and not gvt investment alone.

Good then it is an emphatic rejection of null hypothesis. I thought I have to add more for total investment. It means that the total annunal investments (year after year) is not sufficient to create the claimed GSDP numbers :)

http://ccnmtl.columbia.edu/projects/qmss/anova/the_oneway_anova.html

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 06:32 AM

It doesnt matter which value you put in which axis. F-value of 1 means that they are truly independent and values higher shows positive correlation (0-1 show negative correlation).

btw I ran it myself and I am getting a F value of 618. This means the explained variation is 618 times stronger than the unexplained (residual) variation.

http://i39.tinypic.com/121rdau.jpg

It is not difficult to imagine even without statistic. Here is the graph.

http://i40.tinypic.com/161120y.jpg

Atleast this has been my understanding. If you contest it, then I have to go back to my statistician.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 06:35 AM

Actually I am not even sure if this is the test that has to be used. Some statistician help me!!

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 06:38 AM

I definitely contest it. When you have GDP figures on Y and investment numbers on X then it tells me that increase in investment is going to increase GDP (logical isn't). High f-value only confirms it. If you are contesting that there is no co-relation you have to prove otherwise.

ANOVA too proves it in this case. Higher the f-value you can be more confident about rejecting the null hypothesis. But hold on!! I am not for rejecting any hypothesis based on raw numbers as I said before. There are several factors to it. I see outliers on the residual table. We don't how how they got that data at the first place.

But I think that it is safe to assume that increase in gov investment will increase in GSDP as base hypothesis here. (with the given information). Anyways got to crash, see ya tomorrow

But my point is without adequate background information on how you arrived at the numbers you can interpret the numbers (and/or inference) anyway you want it

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 06:41 AM

I definitely contest it. When you have GDP figures on Y and investment numbers on X then it tells me that increase in investment is going to increase GDP (logical isn't). High f-value only confirms it. If you are contesting that there is no co-relation you have to prove otherwise.

ANOVA too proves it in this case. Higher the f-value you can be more confident about rejecting the null hypothesis. But hold on!! I am not for rejecting any hypothesis based on raw numbers as I said before. There are several factors to it. I see outliers on the residual table. We don't how how they got that data at the first place.

But I think that it is safe to assume that increase in gov investment will increase in GSDP as base hypothesis here. (with the given information). Anyways got to crash, see ya tomorrow

But my point is you can interpret the numbers anyway you want it.

No, see my graph. My GDP figures are in X axis only. And to be really sure I actually flipped the numbers and got the exact same F-value (618).

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 06:45 AM

No, see my graph. My GDP figures are in X axis only. And to be really sure I actually flipped the numbers and got the exact same F-value (618).

Why did you put that in X access? Why not Y?

I think it makes logical sense to put that in Y because that is the dependent variable. Government investment is independent variable, but GSDP is dependent.

All dependent variable goes in Y and independent in X (rule of thumb). Example factors affecting housing (# of bedrooms, fenced?, sq ft etc.,). The price always should be (dependent variable) on Y. Apply the same logic here

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 06:48 AM

Why did you put that in X access? Why not Y?

I think it makes logical sense to put that in Y because that is the dependent variable. Government investment is independent variable, but GSDP is dependent.

All dependent variable goes in Y and independent in X (rule of thumb). Example factors affecting housing (# of bedrooms, fenced?, sq ft etc.,). The price always should be (dependent variable) on Y. Apply the same logic here

Yeah thats what. First I did like that only. I got 618. But after you confused me :lol: just to be sure, I reversed it and voila I got the exact same result. It really doesnt matter which variable goes into which axis!

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 06:50 AM

Actually I am not even sure if this is the test that has to be used. Some statistician help me!!

Why can't it be used? You need to provide me more information if you don't want me to use it. I see nice logic and nice co-relation and it makes all more sense to use it.

Data from outset doesn't tell me anything specific not to do this test. But if we have insight to the methodology and details it may.

PS> See the catch with using numbers? :lol:

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 06:52 AM

Yeah thats what. First I did like that only. I got 618. But after you confused me :lol: just to be sure, I reversed it and voila I got the exact same result. It really doesnt matter which variable goes into which axis!

That's because you just have 1 factor in gov investment here. Check something like housing price example where several factors are involved like I said in earlier post and you have to do multiple regression (and not just linear regression). That should clearly tell you the difference

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 06:53 AM

PS> See the catch with using numbers? :lol:

goiyaale ithellam romba over.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 06:54 AM

That's because you just have 1 factor in gov investment here. Check something like housing price example I mentioned where you have to do multiple regression (and not just linear regression). That should make difference

How will you make multiple regression analysis with 2 variables? If not linear regression, at the most you can do some sort of curve fitting and clearly in this case, that is not needed. The linear correlation is clear as a daylight.

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 06:57 AM

How will you make multiple regression analysis with 2 variables? If not linear regression, at the most you can do some sort of curve fitting and clearly in this case, that is not needed. The linear correlation is clear as a daylight.

I said if you have multiple independent variables like housing example.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 06:59 AM

I said if you have multiple independent variables like housing example.

Yeah ok. aana inga strong correlation irukkunu othukareengala?

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 07:01 AM

Yeah ok. aana inga strong correlation irukkunu othukareengala?

Co-relation irukku, but co-relation vechi ungalaala base hypothesis prove panna mudinjitha? adhu than matter. What is the use in co-relation when you don't get p-value to fit in the bell curve? :lol: Ambuttu periya 95% bell curve areavula ukkara mattenguthe? (naan 5% thane keeten alt- hypokku?)

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 07:02 AM

Co-relation irukku, but co-relation prove panna mudinjitha? adhu than matter. What is the use in co-relation when you don't get p-value to fit in the bell curve? :lol:

Ponga poi thoongunga.

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 07:23 AM

hm.. enna oru analysis....
இப்பவே கண்ண கட்டுதே!இன்னும் 12 வருஷம் இருக்கே

R2IChennai

March 23rd, 2012, 07:50 AM

hm.. enna oru analysis....
இப்பவே கண்ண கட்டுதே!இன்னும் 12 வருஷம் இருக்கே

ungalukku ethavathu purinjatha, etho padichavanga pesikrango

Fastest thread to reach 8 pages without any controversies!! yay
KT/Shyam/Arul and ellaruikum oru Oh podunga

vijayvmail

March 23rd, 2012, 07:57 AM

OMG ! The thread is growing so fast - faster than anyone could read through it ! :)

The vision looks good on paper. Great, if it gets done.

This is mainly a vision on the state's economic and social growth over the next 10 years. Now, till today, the main reason for our problems has been corruption.

Corruption may not be a focal point to be discussed in this vision document. But I feel at least something should've been mentioned on how the government is planning to ensure that the vision gets implemented without being dogged by corruption and red tape.

Arbitrary investigations and arrests by the party in power, on the oppposition parties is not going to help. We need a very strong, 'Government Independent' corruption control mechanism. Until then, it'll be 'Revenge politics' which will easily thwart this vision.

The document has just one line mentioning "Increased transparency in Governance".

Similarly, a vision of reducing the subsidies - especially things like free laptop, gold coin, grinder, mixie etc should be included. Subsidies to encourage certain industries, clean energy, public transport etc. are fine. But these election time 'vote bank' subsidies will kill all other visions.

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 08:01 AM

ungalukku ethavathu purinjatha, etho padichavanga pesikrango

Fastest thread to reach 8 pages without any controversies!! yay
KT/Shyam/Arul and ellaruikum oru Oh podunga
புரிஞ்சா, நான் ஏன் இங்க வந்து வேடிக்கை பார்க்கரேன். ...
Need to spend 2 days minimum to understand these "Jargon".. and then need to study the data with our understanding.....

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 08:04 AM

Enna paatha Pakistan maathiri irukka?:guns1: :gunz: :horse:
Pak won ASIA CUP......Cheer up
^^

Another one. India eppa parthalum adi vanguthunnu solla vareengala? :guns1:
India -australia kitte adi Vanginalum, Pakistan-a beat panniruche...
:cheers:

Narayana..Narayana..

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 08:37 AM

[QUOTE=kongutamizhan;89722879At present the document just speaks about dreams and conveniently ignores vision for limitations. Vision should include addressing limitations a part of it. Include that first.[/QUOTE]
+100..We can not expect from any Indian Politician..
Particularly, from JJ.. no way...
sorry for political interruption.. carry on...

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 08:54 AM

$1600 * 70 million = $112 billion = 634000 crores (current GSDP)

$10000 * 70 million = $700 billion = 2000000 crores (2023 GSDP as per vision document0.

That means Re will appreciate to 30 to $

Wow that was a good one Karkal! I totally missed it.

Here is the explanation. The thing is that the figures in the table is in current prices. If you account for inflation (say 5%) then, the nominal GSDP in 2023 will be 20lac crore*1.7 = 34 lac crore. Now if you calculate, the conversion rate is maintained.
Puriyale...
$112bn=634000 Cr? 634 cr given by doc.. $112bn from where you got?

Leo_r

March 23rd, 2012, 10:35 AM

Fast growth of Nations/States happen with the Quality of People. If you see Japan.Far East Nations,China,Taiwan,Germany,US, you will notice People are very hard working and Disciplined. They are all more a colony of Ants and Bees. Given a direction,task,and a finish line they work without a murmour to achieve it.

Overall they are all like soldiers in an army.

Less Chatter and more work is their nature. A Leader will be followed without any questions and the Leader is honest and married to the achievement of a task.

I must tell you all that we are like loose canons and percentage of people with discipline,hard work is relatively low.

One more very important factor is People should naturally be ambitious to grow and make better life for themselves and the family. That is the starting point.

Okay as regards to the Vision 2023, let us first concentrate on three important steps that can be initiated straightaway with Govt. finance, better to start with the bottom of the phyramid - ordinary public.

1)Power::

WE should start work on 2000 MWs every year. At Rs 6 per MWs, Let Govt provide Rs 12,000 crores in every years Budget.

Choose just three locations and evacuation facilities to Load Centre.. 7000 MWs in each centre.

Tender and issue long term orders to match this Vision for next ten years.

Execute them in turnkey contract basis to meet target.

2)Housing,Water Supply and Drainage::

Every Citizen should own a house with water supply and drainage facility.

Plan for 3,00,000 houses ,300 sq ft, Rs 1,20,000 per house.. every year Share the cost by GOvt and Owners by offering loans against the property from Cooperative Banks.

Govt. to mass produce/procure items like Doors/Windows, Concrete slabs,electrical and sanitary fitting etc and supply adjusting cost .

Construction by owner or his appointee to maintain quality.

3)Training Skilled Workers::

I assume ther will be an Engg College in every Taluka.

Govt should engage them to set up facilities in their college to train 10,000 skilled workers in a year in,
welding,fitting,machinists,turners,carpenters,masons,plumbers,electrcians,aluminium work,sheet metal work,glass work,mechanics,grinders,fabricators , construction equipment operators etc

100 talukas and we have 1 million skilled workers in ayear...

Ask every Industry to train an equivqalent numbers by offering stipend.

We will meet our target to have 22 Millions..

These are my first priority items for implementation..

Have Power,and self confident people, it will be time to expand SMEs in every Village Panchayat..

How to go about ...thodarum..

kannan infratech

March 23rd, 2012, 12:01 PM

Some Clarifications:

The PPTs prepared by SSC TN during May- June 2011 (Chennai, TN North, TN West, TN South )( TN Central & East could not be prepared due to lack of inputs from forumers), Transport, etc in Short, Medium & Long term - for the Program Implementation Ministry. The aim was to implement those issues which were in the manifesto.

We prepared another PPT for Expressways, HSRs, Freight Corridors, Industrial Corridors development along the Freight corridor in Nov & Dec 2011. This has been included in the vision 2023 document.

Many of our suggestions (May June 2011) were announced but we are not able to monitor effectively since they get hidden by inclusion in some scheme or other.

Obviously Power sector suffered the most. The magnitude of the problem - huge outstanding dues, Project over runs, Maintenance hoildays at wrong times, coal linkage issues, bogus companies getting power plants orders, lack of transmission infra from other states etc- was obviously not known outside.

This will take a few more months to solve. By Sep 2012, we will have better position.

I understand from the express discussions posted above - it is assumed by many that

Govt is not capable of any vision document or implementation of the same.
All proposals are based on Govt finance - SG / CG
Corruption will derail the proposals
SG may not be able to mobilise the finances needed from private sources
Risk is too much and may not really work (Probability)

My answers to these doubts are as below:
The vision document was prepared by IMacs

Board of Directors of IMaCS
Mr. D. N. Ghosh, Chairman - Formerly Chairman, State Bank of India
Mr. P. K. Choudhury - Vice Chairman and Group CEO, ICRA Limited
Mr. C. M. Vasudev - Formerly Executive Director, World Bank
Mr. D. P. Roy - Formerly Executive Chairman & - CEO, SBI Capital Markets Limited
Mr. P. S. Shenoy - Formerly Chairman & Managing Director, Bank of Baroda
Mr. R. Raghuttama Rao, Managing Director

and Asian Development Bank officials in charge of South Asia, India & Tamil Nadu.

The inputs were given by various Govt Depts and independents like SSC.

The people who prepared this are the ones who earlier were sanctioning various proposals from Indian Govt or State Govts and they were approving the funds from their banks / Fin agencies.

It will be foolish to think that they have just day dreamed without a proper back up and we are superior in our knowledge than them.

The vision Doc is very ambitious, of course but doable provided if the SG is able to bring in the reforms suggested in its policies by the same group of advisors.

As I said earlier, WB, ADB, JICA and other Fin institutions will pump in money into TN & Gujarat if the SGs propose a technically & financially viable projects for PPP partners to join in.

More than that Water & Edu infra may not be profitable at the same levels as others due to poor collection records of municipalities. Lots of subsidies and waivers will be given if the performance is good in design & execution.

Corruption IS a major issue. Strict monitoring mechanism, escrow accounts for Specific projects (to prevent diversion & siphoning), multi level auditing by external agencies are some of the proposals.

Similarly Transparency in Tenders Admin, not going by Financially Lowest Quotes and taking Technical supremacy and Power savings etc into consideration - are also proposed.

There may be even a separate Advisory body to guide the Govt on this very soon.

Please let us spend our energy & efforts on how to make this successful and not on nitpicking smaller points based on just the published portion / stats.

vijayvmail

March 23rd, 2012, 01:35 PM

^^ Of course, lot of our plans are made by experts and Tamilnadu has also done a relatively good job of implementing many of them.

Otherwise, the state will not be ahead, at least in India.

Good to hear that some plans are being formulated on the transparency and corruption front. Expecting a solid proposal on that. That is very crucial for any of these visions to be realized.

kvijayasundaram

March 23rd, 2012, 02:18 PM

When Will the finer details emerge?

Agreed that this is a vision document, and its liberties to make abstaract statements like 10 world class cities and three major ports.

But when will the real details come out. Are we waiting for a another document ( something like a DPR) with ways and details to achieve these visions .

Are these experts doing that as well? Very eager to see that.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 02:51 PM

Puriyale...
$112bn=634000 Cr? 634 cr given by doc.. $112bn from where you got?

Athe table thaan (page 38). GSDP at current prices paarunga. Karkal has just applied rupee to dollar conversion (with some approximation).

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 03:09 PM

$1600 * 70 million = $112 billion = 634000 crores

Krishna,

Please go through the vision document. It has numbers in several places.

For ex: It says current Per capita income of TN is $1600 approx also projects per capita income will be $10000 in 2023.

We know TN population is approx 70 million.

So $1600 * 70 million = $112 billion

As you said 634000 cr as provided by doc. if you do the conversion it will work out.

So I applied the same formula for 2023 projected per capita.

$10000 * 70 million = $700 billion.

madurakarenda

March 23rd, 2012, 03:13 PM

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 03:15 PM

I'm not a mathematician (or) a statistician just another management guy in a large global company who look at project numbers for a living. For me numbers don't lie.

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 03:16 PM

No projection on the increase in population? ^^ :?

If we project the population, the numbers will get worse. So i didnt do it.

kannan infratech

March 23rd, 2012, 03:22 PM

No projection on the increase in population? ^^ :?

indha kalathy Youth ngallam Kolandhai kutti pethukaradha virumbala pola. only safe methods. :lol:

On a serious note,

Yeah. Karkal should have applied and shown how it gets reduced. :poke:

saysenthil

March 23rd, 2012, 03:27 PM

Thanks AMMA..... for boldly unveiling this document...... Really hats off....

Thanks for our Forumers..... whose inputs have been used to create the document itself..... And for others who are contributing to this thread......

AMAZING JOB Folks!!!!

:bowtie:

Such a fantastic thread.... Loved reading it.... Loved the knowledge provided by all of u guys.... Also loved the cricket match (ind vs pak) :cheer:...... Hope the series continues.....

:)

-------------------------------------------------------------

Nice read....

Jaya’s grand vision for 2023: A richer, world-class Tamil Nadu (http://www.firstpost.com/india/jayas-grand-vision-for-2023-a-richer-world-class-tamil-nadu-253958.html)

Ten months since she came to power, the Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa has unveiled her dream future for the state — a poverty-free, world-class investment destination with equal accent on human development.

No other dream has been this big, with the exception of, perhaps, Gujarat.

Everything about this 11-year-long perspective plan titled Vision Tamil Nadu-2023 is super big: taking the state to one of the three top investment destinations in Asia, an investment of Rs 15 lakh crore, an increase of the state’s GDP to 11 percent, a six-fold rise of the annual per capita income to an envious Rs 4.5 lakh, an addition of 20,000 MW of power capacity and so on.

Through an inclusive growth plan, the state will largely be free of poverty by 2023, the document said. By 2023, the state now reeling under a crippling power crisis, will have surplus electricity.

In her message on the plan, Jayalalithaa said she is setting a short-term target for practical and accountability reasons. “A distant vision neither inspires nor challenges. We need to stretch targets which will challenge us and are achieved within a timeframe that is not too remote. Hence as we stand at the commencement of the 2012-13 fiscal year, I have chosen a clear and challenging timeframe of ten fiscal years within which we set out to achieve ambitious goals.”

The vision document reads like a completely new universe. It has massive expansion of road networks, particularly the four and six lane highways; ports, transportation, storage and cold-storage infrastructure; large-scale agricultural development including horticulture parks, agro-processing zones, restoration of wells, canals and micro-irrigation and massive skill development of people. The vision document targets job-oriented skill building of 20 million people.

In true Jayalalithaa style, she also has given considerable focus on health, particularly maternal and child health. At least 2 percent of the Rs 15 lakh crore investment will be to improve healthcare facilities. The plan also envisages 10 super-specialty hospitals.

Infrastructure development would absorb a bulk of the planned investment. For instance, road development, mainly multi-laning will require Rs 1.3 lakh crore; the investment in power generation will require Rs 4.5 lakh crore; and three greenfield ports capable of handling 150 million tonnes of cargo a year will cost Rs 15,000 crore. The implementation of the plan will involve considerable public private partnership (PPP).

“The goals and themes of the vision are determined as clearly perceivable outcomes which will impact the lives of the common citizens in the most direct manner possible – substantial increases in income through generation of fruitful employment, improvement in the quality of life through provision of high quality infrastructure and services; focused growth of sectors where the state has a competitive advantage and above all; peace prosperity and protection of the vulnerable,” she added.

Here are the highlights of Vision-2023:

Ten vision Themes:

1. Tamil Nadu will be amongst India’s most economically prosperous states by 2023, achieving a six-fold growth in per capita income (in real terms) over the next 11 years to be on par with the Upper Middle Income countries globally.

2. Tamil Nadu will exhibit a highly inclusive growth pattern – it will largely be a poverty-free state with opportunities for gainful and productive employment for all those who seek it, and will provide care for the disadvantaged, vulnerable and the destitute in the state.

3. Tamil Nadu will be India’s leading state in social development and will have the highest Human Development Index (HDI) amongst all Indian states.

4. Tamil Nadu will provide the best infrastructure services in India in terms of universal access to housing, water & sanitation, energy, transportation, irrigation, connectivity, healthcare, and education.

5. Tamil Nadu will be one of the top three preferred investment destinations in Asia and the most preferred in India with a reputation for efficiency and competitiveness.

6. Tamil Nadu will be known as the innovation hub and knowledge capital of India, on the strength of world class institutions in various fields and the best human talent.

7. Tamil Nadu will ensure peace, security and prosperity for all citizens and business, enabling free movement and exchange of ideas, people and trade with other Indian states and rest of the world.

8. Tamil Nadu will preserve and care for its ecology and heritage.

9. Tamil Nadu will actively address the causes of vulnerability of the state and its people due to uncertainties arising from natural causes, economic downturns, and other man-made reasons and mitigate the adverse effects.

10. Tamil Nadu will nurture a culture of responsive and transparent governance that ensures progress, security, and equal opportunity to all stakeholders.

^^

Industry hails policy document[ (http://ibnlive.in.com/news/industry-hails-policy-document/241844-60-120.html)/U]

Industry representatives have hailed the Vision 2023 document released by Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa and said the vision statement document displays the attributes of a truly great visionary leader.

Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Tamil Nadu State Council said it is [U]absolutely delighted to hear chief minister articulate her grand plans for Tamil Nadu entitled Vision 2023 to ensure that Tamil Nadu reached the numero uno position in the next 11 years in all parameters enshrined in Social Development to Human Development Index (HDI) to make Tamil Nadu an ideal destination for foreign and domestic investments.

“Her emphasis on ensuring that all citizens of Tamil Nadu have a high standard of living with the per capita income reaching $10,000 per annum by 2023 is attainable,” FICCI said.

“Jayalalithaa has looked with great foresight and has the attributes of a truly great visionary leader to have envisaged such an outstanding Vision 2023 which will ensure that the entire populace enjoys the fruits of great efforts,” FIICI said.

“This initiative would make a foundation for enhancing industrial and infrastructure growth, and also aid in accelerating social development, said R Dinesh, chairman of CII Tamil Nadu State Council.

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 03:29 PM

No projection on the increase in population? ^^ :?

Good point :)

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 03:33 PM

Here is gujarat
http://www.gidb.org/downloads/vol_1B_summary_2020.pdf

ippadi saniyana thooki baniyanukkulla pottukiteengalae :) did you read it?

"ullangai nellikanninu" solluvanga illa? andha alavukku obvious. Theirs is better, more professional keep thinking why? Got to drive to work and have a meeting to attend. Adhukkapuram type pannuren. (HINT: start from page 18)

murlee

March 23rd, 2012, 03:37 PM

Looks like I completely missed the fun!!

Gotta read from the first page now... Will join after reading everything!!

saysenthil

March 23rd, 2012, 03:39 PM

Looks like I completely missed the fun!!

Gotta read from the first page now... Will join after reading everything!!

^^

Same buddy.... i did that today.... was just 1 day off.... already almost 8 pages.... unbelievable...... loads of information...... Enjoy.....

:cheers1:

satchitananda

March 23rd, 2012, 04:23 PM

Got to drive to work and have a meeting to attend. Adhukkapuram type pannuren.

இந்த மானுடனுடைய கடமை உணர்ச்சி வியப்பாக உள்ளது.

KT anne.. marubadiyum regression testing poidatheenga... yerkanave enakkum maths-statistics ellathukkum bayangara sandai..

I think you will agree having a vision statement is better than having none. I agree GJ document is more focussed and TN seems to be leaf out of it, but missing lots of key things like maps.

I really am surprised at the depth of your maths insight.. also Tshyam.. rendu perum jointa ramanujam award vaangindu poidunga..

If I may be audacious enough to intervene this interesting discussion, I would like KT to finetune the documents, instead of blowing holes (as there are too many in each). I want you to focus your wonderful energy towards making them constructive.

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 04:30 PM

indha kalathy Youth ngallam Kolandhai kutti pethukaradha virumbala pola. only safe methods. :lol:

On a serious note,

Yeah. Karkal should have applied and shown how it gets reduced. :poke:

If I adjust the poulation growth numbers, the TN numbers in the vision document will look worse unless as Shyam said we inflation adjust it. Then the infrastructure numbers will go for a toss. Please refer previous pages for detailed discussion between me and TShyam.

For ex: instead of 70 million, lets take 71 million in 2023

it will be

$10000 * 71 million = 710 billion = 200000 crores (2023 as per gsdp) * 1.7 = 340000 crores

instead of

$10000 * 70 million = 700 billion = 200000 crores (2023 as per gsdp) * 1.7 = 340000 crores

Then infrastructure spending should also be inflation adjusted which is not indicated anywhere in the document.

Arul Murugan

March 23rd, 2012, 04:41 PM

madurakarenda

March 23rd, 2012, 04:43 PM

Does this come under Vision 2025? I ask this because of the bold parts in the below quote. If yes, who is going to fund this? PPP or SG? Or shall this be considered as a SG project until DPR for Vision 2025 is rolled out?

Jayalalithaa announces setting up of Rs. 93 cr engineering college

A day after she embarked on a vision of taking the State GDP to 11 per cent by 2023, Chief Minister Jayalalithaa on Friday announced setting up of an engineering college at a cost of Rs. 93.64 crore enabling students in southern districts to have access to engineering courses.

The college at Bodinayakanur in Theni district would commence operations from this academic year and admit 300 students across various streams of engineering, an official release here said.

Ms. Jayalalithaa has issued the administrative sanction in this regard, it said.

Funds would be utilised to develop the infrastructure facility of the college including setting up of laboratories, hostels and purchase of computers, among others, it added.

After unveiling the Vision Tamil Nadu 2023 document on Thursday, Ms. Jayalalithaa had said one of the single most important resources for the success of achieving ‘Vision 2023’, was the availability of skilled manpower in the state.

“Vision 2023 envisages training and equipping 20 million persons with skills over the next 11 years. I recognise the need to establish ten or more top of the league institutions as Centres of Excellence in various fields that will attract the best talents from across the globe”, she had said.

Source : http://www.thehindu.com/news/states/tamil-nadu/article3205090.ece

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 04:44 PM

If I adjust the poulation growth numbers, the TN numbers in the vision document will look worse unless as Shyam said we inflation adjust it. Then the infrastructure numbers will go for a toss. Please refer previous pages for detailed discussion between me and TShyam.

For ex: instead of 7 million, lets take 7.1 million in 2023

it will be

$10000 * 71 million = 710 billion = 200000 crores (2023 as per gsdp)

instead of

$10000 * 70 million = 700 billion = 200000 crores (2023 as per gsdp)

But that's how you have to show it because that's what is going to reflect reality. Without projections in inflation and population what is the use with those numbers? What are you trying to prove or what far you think it will be useful? You definitely can't use those numbers for planning because it is missing projection.

I laugh at our government statistics when they add a note for 2012 GDP data and say that it is @ 1999 value or 2004 value. C'mon who cares what our current data means in 18th century or 1950? Well for academic purpose you can use it, but for planning or to put it on gov website? Our folks have to change here

@ Satch,

Math knowledgeum kidayathu oru punnakkum kidayathu. Add Analytics toolpak to your excel it does most of the hardwork for you.

All you have to do is learn few concepts (1 hour job) about what p/f-value is, significance of bell-curve, corelation and hypothesis. That's all you would have learnt how to read the regression results. It is as simple as that and no rocket science. Try applying it on your day-to-day life like when you buy stocks or real-estate and you'll become an expert at it :)

By the way Gujarat document is a statisticians delight. They have multiple independent and multiple dependent variables. You can run a true multiple regression test against it. It allows you to form several hypothesis sectorwise :)

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 04:50 PM

But that's how you have to show it because that's what is going to reflect reality. Without projections in inflation and population what is the use with those numbers? What are you trying to prove or what far you think it will be useful? You definitely can't use those numbers for planning because it is missing projection.

I'm not trying to prove (or) disprove anything here. I'm just telling there are numbers here that's not matching.

satishanu

March 23rd, 2012, 04:56 PM

Population might be considered and we don't know exactly what is the formula behind it.

On theme section, one part says this...

Over the next 11 years,
Tamil Nadu, given its factor endowments and the
combination of strengths and opportunities, will
aim to grow its GSDP at 11% or more per annum
- about 20% more than the expected growth rate
of India’s GDP over the same period. Given the
expected increase in population of 15% over the
next 11 years, the increase in per capita income
would amount to 6 times over this period

and another part says this...

Growth of State GDP (GSDP) at an average rate of
10.9% (reaching 11.5% over the next ten years) over
a sustained period will be an important contributor
to reduce the average level of poverty. With the
state having reached replacement level fertility, the
pressure on account of population will not be severe

When I watched Jaya English news JJ was reading out this part (pop. inc. of 15% over next 11 years).

I guess she read out the most of the Vision 2023 document to the audience.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 05:01 PM

I dont understand why there is so much controversy over the population numbers.

Expected GSDP at current prices in 2023 - 20 lac crore.
Assumed inflation per annum - 5%
Expected GSDP at nominal prices in 2023 - 34.21 lac crore.
Assumed population - 8 crore
Expected percapita GDP = 34.21 lacs/8 = Rs. 4,27,625.

At a conversion factor of 45, this comes to $9502.

Now 9502 dollars per capita is being rounded off to 10000 dollars. Ithula enna ivalavu kozhappam?

Arul Murugan

March 23rd, 2012, 05:08 PM

I laugh at our government statistics when they add a note for 2012 GDP data and say that it is @ 1999 value or 2004 value. C'mon who cares what our current data means at 18th century value or 1950 value? Well for academic purpose you can use it, but for planning or to put it on gov website? Our folks have to change here

Gvt does both GDP calculation for both constant and current prices and not for 10th century or Sangam period prices.

In this vision document they have considered 2011-12 constant prices projection. When one consider inflation or current prices, the gdp figures will not be more than 14,137,352crores??

Further the financial feasibility of the investment was explained with GDP growth. So w.o past figures, how one can project the growth rate i.e GDP figures and extract investment figures?

========================================================

Let us leave those GDP figures.

Present day spending on those infra is 25393 crores. Run this data till 2023 considering 12% increase in investment every year. One will arrive at value of 88330 crores. And cumulative infra spending from 2012 to 2023 would be 6.1 lakhs crores approx.. which is approx equal to 40% of 15lakhs crore mentioned in the document.

But gvt has set a strategy to raise the private investment on infra multi-fold. And further there will not be there more growth in gdp because of these infra creation, more revenue tax?? And don't you think remaining 60% will be bridged by this?

By the way Gujarat document is a statisticians delight. They have multiple independent and multiple dependent variables. You can run a true multiple regression test against it. It allows you to form several hypothesis sectorwise :)

GJ had added maps. If TN could also have added maps on expressway/ Industrial corridor / HSR / Power plant location / gas grid etc., it might be looking more attractive for readers.

Mukkesh

March 23rd, 2012, 05:11 PM

1. Hats of to CM for making this VISION 2023 statement

2.The fact that there are more than 9 pages of discussion in two days suggests how keen are everyone on development

3. It s up to us to contribute in all possible ways to make it happen

4.The plans are good but let s see the implementation.

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 05:20 PM

GJ had added maps. If TN could also have added maps on expressway/ Industrial corridor / HSR / Power plant location / gas grid etc., it might be looking more attractive for readers.

You over-simplified it!! Yes they added maps and it is aesthetically pleasing. But that's not my point.

It is highly detailed. They included factors outside investment numbers (both positive and nagative factors, meaning more independent variables. For example they clearly considered land acq as an obstacle and defined a process and factored those in their calculations - reference p.104) which is key for any vision document. They are more transperent about how they arrived at the vision and numbers by providing detailed background information. And ofcourse it is accompanied by the strategy (which I don't know if it came out in their first version)

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 05:22 PM

Gvt does both GDP calculation for both constant and current prices and not for 10th century or Sangam period prices..

I am not talking about this data. It is about GDP info provided by chennaidesi or someone in this forum few weeks back. I remembered seeing sangam period prices for current data there.

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 05:25 PM

Arul Murugan

March 23rd, 2012, 05:31 PM

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 05:39 PM

Is that 10000 USD before or after tax ;) :jk:

What about maintanance costs? Further per capita is not the only thing that drives people to board HSR's

http://128.101.119.3/Courses/Cases/CE5212/F2009/CS2/cba.pdf

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 05:43 PM

In just another 15 yrs TN itself be a trillion$ economy.Mind bogling even to think abt it.

Look at how many millionaires and billionaires will get created.

If this is the case, the RE prices will hit the roof (maybe even the sky) in the next decade.

Arul Murugan

March 23rd, 2012, 05:49 PM

What about maintanance costs?

I didn't talk any thing on HSR cost or maintenance cost of ROI etc., .

Further per capita is not the only thing that drives people to board HSR's

Looks again you have not understood my post. Just gave very simple explanation that spending power of present travelers is bound to increase along with income.

http://128.101.119.3/Courses/Cases/CE5212/F2009/CS2/cba.pdf

this link was read more than 1yr ago and more studies/papers are available for emerging econimics, french, japan compared to U.S which runs on Aeroplane and cars and sucks the earth resource more compared to other countries., Anyway thanks for the link.

sshivakumar

March 23rd, 2012, 06:00 PM

Intha thread HSRa vida speeda poguthu.. :) I just took 40 mins to glance through all the pages, guess i'll spend the weekend reading everything again. So much wealth of information.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 06:06 PM

So by your calculation TN will be 7 times bigger in 11 years.

Approx - $770 - $800 b (current $110b).

Yes thats correct.

chennaidesi

March 23rd, 2012, 06:07 PM

We can achieve this(11% growth) if Tamils stop watching TV serials.
Else the thoughts and ideas spread by TV serials will take us to 1960's.

kannan infratech

March 23rd, 2012, 06:07 PM

On HSR, I had a detailed discussion with others.

There was a debate on which is better - more no of small airports or HSR ?

DMK & Marans had proposed smaller airports in all districts and effecting a policy change of allowing even Thasildhars to travel by Air to Chennai. If you really see the no of Govt officers travelling to Chennai from the districts, it is mind boggling. ATRs which are being abandoned were supposed to be used for these flights. They also stay back since the travel time is more and tickets are not available. If they can come in the early morning, finish the work and return to their base by night, huge savings for the govt.

Though the initial cost of HSR is more to cover the entire state, if the initial years are managed by subsidising the losses by the income from the freight operations, it is managable. Actually Chennai Bangalore & Chennai CBE routes were perceived as the ideal for HSRs. So Phase I.

The DPR for HSR & Freight Corridor holds the key to its feasibility. As I said, industrial corridors along the freight & HSR corridor will give additional income to the PPP partners and they will sustain the operations.

Moreover, long credits from equipment suppliers - EMUs, Coaches, Signals etc - is also being looked into. The same may be subsidised by the respective Govts of those countries to which these PPP operator / Equipment suppliers belong.

Land Acquisition in my opinion is the greatest problem than all these. And the onus of the same lies with the SG only. Here JJ's iron will or velvet hand will be tested. If TN Govt is able to do this, the rest will fall in place.

I also discussed on the points raised by TShyam on improving the existing IR lines and the resistance expected from IR to HSR proposal on PPP mode. Since IR is almost bankrupt, they have no other way to execute future plans / expansions. Already most of the lines have neared their end of the life it seems and replacement is not happening due to cash crunch.

They are converting old BG rails into MG rails for replacement and now MG lines are also dying. (Almost).

Unless an efficient TN minister becomes the IR minister, nothing will happen to TN from IR side. It is better to rope them in (through IRCON or others) as Project mangers and give them some fee for the same.

The connectivity to other IR system is also needed as far as the Freight trains are concerned. So it is better to work with them alongside but not as a single financial entity so that each is not affected by other's failures.

When they (IR) are announcing so many HSR projects in other states without any funds, TN & Gujarat have solid assurances and they can make it happen.

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 06:21 PM

Looks like I completely missed the fun!!

Gotta read from the first page now... Will join after reading everything!!
murlee, unnai than valai veesi thedikittu irunthen...
yennada...Pullayaidan Gammnu irukkanenu...

GF-dating -a?:lol::lol:

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 06:21 PM

If we grow at this speed (11% real growth) for next decade, we can even have flying trains :cheers:

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 06:23 PM

Math knowledgeum kidayathu oru punnakkum kidayathu. Add Analytics toolpak to your excel it does most of the hardwork for you.

All you have to do is learn few concepts (1 hour job) about what p/f-value is, significance of bell-curve, corelation and hypothesis. That's all you would have learnt how to read the regression results. It is as simple as that and no rocket science. Try applying it on your day-to-day life like when you buy stocks or real-estate and you'll become an expert at it :
Anna,
what is your hour-ly rate....?(for teaching mathematics only...):lol::lol:

ramendu.ganguly

March 23rd, 2012, 06:24 PM

can anyone enlighten me on the power crisis that you guys are experiencing?

satchitananda

March 23rd, 2012, 06:25 PM

If India can really produce a 80-100 seater regional jet in the next 2-3-4 years based on its expertise with Kaveri engine (still under dev..), the cheaper option will be to have district airports that are connected with major TN cities. If India can convince Japan/France to share the HSR tech or to atleast have some joint venture, then HSR can hold some ground(Sorry didnt realise the pun after i typed), especially given the fact of land acquisition costs.

A regional indian jet will have an enormous impact on such a plan. If the SPDR airport fructifies, the current MAA can act as the nodal airport to tie all the local TN traffic. (This would augment the need for inter-airport connectivity though)

This is the best rosy plan.. Indian planes, airports, land acquisition less relative to HSR.. more jobs retained locally and generated.

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 06:25 PM

If I adjust the poulation growth numbers, the TN numbers in the vision document will look worse unless as Shyam said we inflation adjust it.
what about the migration? huge people expected to migrate to their home land..
At the same time, we have younger generation only....
"ticket" vangura perusunga kootam kammi....so obvious-a there will be more population..

satchitananda

March 23rd, 2012, 06:27 PM

Anna,
what is your hour-ly rate....?(for teaching mathematics only...):lol::lol:

KT rate umakku kattupadi aagathu.. ethukku vamba velai kuduthu vangareenga.. ithukku minnadi murleea valai veesi pidicheenga.. Thread thaangathu saamy.. ;)

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 06:28 PM

$1600 * 70 million = $112 billion = 634000 crores
Karkal,
my point is the "figure" given by us$ does not match with INR Rs figure given..
$112billion = 63kCro.. so
634/112=5.8
1 us$ =58 Rs? is n't something wrong there?

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 06:28 PM

Anna,
what is your hour-ly rate....?lol::lol:

paavi manusha, avanaa neeyi (http://youtu.be/InDPo6JT9pc)? :lol:

naan avan illeengo :)

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 06:29 PM

what about the migration? huge people expected to migrate to their home land..
At the same time, we have younger generation only....
"ticket" vangura perusunga kootam kammi....so obvious-a there will be more population..

In a trillion$ economy nothing will matter. So go buy your property soon, before prices go up. :lol:

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 06:29 PM

murlee veesi pidicheenga.. Thread thaangathu saamy.. ;)
5 hr thoongi ezhuthirukurathukulle --- 80 posts...that too without "murlee", "anniyan"...

Pasanga..sharpa irukkanuga....

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 06:31 PM

Karkal,
my point is the "figure" given by us$ does not match with INR Rs figure given..
$112billion = 63kCro.. so
634/112=5.8
1 us$ =58 Rs? is n't something wrong there?

It was a rough approx. to prove a point that data is not matching.

sshivakumar

March 23rd, 2012, 06:31 PM

If we grow at this speed (11% real growth) for next decade, we can even have flying trains :cheers:

Karkal.. we are so advanced, we already have one flying train (Parakkum rayil) :)

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 06:32 PM

In a trillion$ economy nothing will matter. So go buy your property soon, before prices go up. :lol:
property irukku.. "purse" than ille.. credit card irukku..

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 06:33 PM

can anyone enlighten me on the power crisis that you guys are experiencing?

yes we are experiencing various types of powercuts that totals upto 10 hours per day. On top of it we have power holiday. When we say that we are "green" enthusiasists we truely mean it. We celebrate earth day daily for 10 hours. Some folks in our state don't believe in tree-hugging but they still (claim) they love us(null hypothesis) and they join us for 2 hours as token of appreciation.

What else you want to know? :lol:

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 06:34 PM

Karkal.. we are so advanced, we already have one flying train (Parakkum rayil) :)

:lol:

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 06:36 PM

Karkal.. we are so advanced, we already have one flying train (Parakkum rayil) :)
siva, "Steady-a" irukkeenga pola...

kannan infratech

March 23rd, 2012, 06:51 PM

Friday evening. Ellarum indha kizhavanai vittuttu S ayittanga :lol:

I also agree with Karkal. RE prices may shoot up to such an extent that ordinary folks may find it extremely difficult to afford a house in future.

As Arul said, solar & other carbon credits issues should be exploited to the maximum in HSR / stations etc so that the investing companies can encash the credits.

Actually I was surprised by the amount both CG & SG collect and accumulate as Edu Cess. They hardly spend a few % actually on Edu. No need for additional funding at all if all are spent on Edu.

If L&T finishes all the Water supply projects within next 3 -4 years, almost entire TN will have protected water supply. Water reosources is more of an issue which may derail all expectations.

Sand Mining in all the TN rivers actually kill the resources and the Govt has to be strict with the contractors. (Ravananan andalum, Raman Andalum, Sand Mafia kku Kavalai ille). RWH and more lakes to store the rain water, Reuse of used water are very important.

DPR vandha, we may have to start one thread for each DPR. Am very happy that we guys are so passionate.

Vicvin86

March 23rd, 2012, 06:54 PM

Is it true that GQ is completed with less money than the original estimate? Can something like that happen to projects proposed?

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 06:57 PM

Tshyam a question to you on HSR spending since you said 10,000 USD i.e 4,50,000 is not impossible target to reach by 2023.

Now on an average 3,00,000 commuters travel to Chennai from other part of the state in rail and road mode. Their average spending is 200 rupees per day based on revenue calculation of SETC/TNSTC/Railways/Omni buses this value was arrived. I hope you may also agree with that.

The present gdp per capita is 73,278 rupees i.e 200 rupees per day. Also 3,00,000 lakh people were able to spend same 200 rupees per day for commuting on long distance route within the state.

In 2023 it would be 4,50,000 i.e 1232 rupees per day. So don't you think these commuters would be able to spend same 1232 rupees per day for long distance travel??

So 1232*300000(actual this should also increase!!)*365 = 13490 crores per year!! (imagine these HSR are powered by your fav solar power plants ;)).

So if 10,000USD per capita is feasible in 2023, HSR should also be feasible :D

I might have over simplified these financial calculation. It may be wrong or right and I don't know.

Arul, I think I can try to convey my thoughts better if I knock off a few zeros and bring it to a personal level.

Suppose I have a friend who earns 2 lac rupees per month. He is a great fan of Merc E class 250 (around 50 lacs on road). He either can buy it with a EMI outgo of 1 lac per month or can buy a mid size sedan like Volkswagen Vento for 10 lacs with an EMI outgo of 20000.

Everyone loves the Merc E class and everyone wants one. And sure anyone with any land within TN can technically "afford" an E Class but is it a prudent decision to buy it?

Sure E class la poi eranguna bandhaava irukkum. Paakravanukku ellam pathikittu varum. Mathavanukku munnadi semma geththa irukalam.

But can I recommend such a thing to my friend? His health care insurance will be hit. He can no longer afford to pay his home EMI and has to shift to a rental home. His kids cannot go to the best schools anymore. He cannot take care of his elderly parents anymore. He may not even pay his current bill. His wife beats him and his kids hates him.

Now add 6 zeros to all the figures above and we get TN and HSR. The neighbors in my analogy becomes the rest of India and other state fellows. wife and kids become the state population. I think other things are self explanatory (health care, education, elderly and others needing social security, power)

Before everyone start complaining that this is not a valid comparison, I will say that it is a very valid comparison. For any investment, we have to see the marginal utility. How will that investment increase our source of income (in the case of a state, it is GDP). That is called capital formation.

How will a HSR which will suck around 10000 crore per annum just for servicing the loans increase the productivity of the state? Sure people will travel a little faster but will it provide enough compensatory productivity to offset the cost?

I am all for increasing the capacity of the existing tracks so that people can travel wherever and whenever they want. Let the state take the whole burden of funding. Surely it would be just a fraction of HSR's cost. Quadruple the western line upto Jolarpet; triple it till Cbe. How much will it cost? 3000 crores? ada 5000 crores thaan aagatume!

Similarly take over the southern line, completely fund the ongoing doubling wrk and tripple it till Madurai and double it till Cape. How much will it cost? Another 5000 crores? Plan DFC's along Coimbatore to Tuticurin growth corridor - 3000 crores. Double Salem Virdachalam and Virudachalam - Cuddalore (with a spur to Karaikal and Nagai port) which will act as part of Cbe - Nagai DFC - 3000 crores?

Modernize signalling so that trains can run at 10 minutes interval. Imagine the capacity that will be created when we adopt this route. Imagine the amount of diesel the economy will save by all the freight trains taking lorries off the road.

Imagine the capital formation in the economy that will ensue if we follow this option? Now I know IR is a hard nut but I think if we are willing to fully fund (or even 80% fund) and with sustained political pressure, IR will have nothing to lose and will be ok with the proposal. Afterall they will be the recipient of the revenues.

Speeding up will always be taken up later. Start with 160 and 180 kmph up gradation (we already have engines for that speed - rolling stock, rails and signalling needs upgradation). At 180 kmph, trains can average atleast 100 kmph if not 120 kmph. Even MS - Cape will take only 6-7 hours. Not bad at all.

I dont think the economy will gain much by speeding beyond that as we dont have any cities more than 700 km from each other. I cant accept the day commute argument. They are random, infrequent and not made by regular commuters. No one is going to day communicate to work in Chennai from Trichy or Salem.

kannan infratech

March 23rd, 2012, 07:00 PM

Is it true that GQ is completed with less money than the original estimate? Can something like that happen to projects proposed?

During the initial phase, NHAI was paying huge sum to the contractors.

Then the amount got reduced to almost Nil

Then the contractors have started paying the Govt / NHAI a smaller sum

Now the contractors are paying huge sum to the Govt / NHAI.

The sum being paid has to be read with concession period time lines also.

So kootti kazhich parthal, estimated expenses to Govt a vida kammiyaga chance irukku.

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 07:02 PM

No one is going to day communicate to work in Chennai from Trichy or Salem.

Agreed they will migrate ;)

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 07:08 PM

I think in SSC, we are so used to seeing figures like 1 lac crore, 15 lac crore, 1 trillion dollars and 10 trillion dollars that we are not properly appreciating the gravity of an 1.5 lac crore expense and what it can do, particularly in the social sector.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 07:10 PM

Agreed they will migrate ;)

Yeppa saamy aala vidunga. Naan intha velayaatukku varala :runaway:

madurakarenda

March 23rd, 2012, 07:12 PM

Arul, I think I can try to convey my thoughts better if I knock off a few zeros and bring it to a personal level.

Suppose I have a friend who earns 2 lac rupees per month. He is a great fan of Merc E class 250 (around 50 lacs on road). He either can buy it with a EMI outgo of 1 lac per month or can buy a mid size sedan like Volkswagen Vento for 10 lacs with an EMI outgo of 20000.

Everyone loves the Merc E class and everyone wants one. And sure anyone with any land within TN can technically "afford" an E Class but is it a prudent decision to buy it?

Sure E class la poi eranguna bandhaava irukkum. Paakravanukku ellam pathikittu varum. Mathavanukku munnadi semma geththa irukalam.

But can I recommend such a thing to my friend? His health care insurance will be hit. He can no longer afford to pay his home EMI and has to shift to a rental home. His kids cannot go to the best schools anymore. He cannot take care of his elderly parents anymore. He may not even pay his current bill. His wife beats him and his kids hates him.

Now add 6 zeros to all the figures above and we get TN and HSR. The neighbors in my analogy becomes the rest of India and other state fellows. wife and kids become the state population. I think other things are self explanatory (health care, education, elderly and others needing social security, power)

Before everyone start complaining that this is not a valid comparison, I will say that it is a very valid comparison. For any investment, we have to see the marginal utility. How will that investment increase our source of income (in the case of a state, it is GDP). That is called capital formation.

How will a HSR which will suck around 10000 crore per annum just for servicing the loans increase the productivity of the state? Sure people will travel a little faster but will it provide enough compensatory productivity to offset the cost?

I am all for increasing the capacity of the existing tracks so that people can travel wherever and whenever they want. Let the state take the whole burden of funding. Surely it would be just a fraction of HSR's cost. Quadruple the western line upto Jolarpet; triple it till Cbe. How much will it cost? 3000 crores? ada 5000 crores thaan aagatume!

Similarly take over the southern line, completely fund the ongoing doubling wrk and tripple it till Madurai and double it till Cape. How much will it cost? Another 5000 crores? Plan DFC's along Coimbatore to Tuticurin growth corridor - 3000 crores. Double Salem Virdachalam and Virudachalam - Cuddalore (with a spur to Karaikal and Nagai port) which will act as part of Cbe - Nagai DFC - 3000 crores?

Modernize signalling so that trains can run at 10 minutes interval. Imagine the capacity that will be created when we adopt this route. Imagine the amount of diesel the economy will save by all the freight trains taking lorries off the road.

Imagine the capital formation in the economy that will ensue if we follow this option? Now I know IR is a hard nut but I think if we are willing to fully fund (or even 80% fund) and with sustained political pressure, IR will have nothing to lose and will be ok with the proposal. Afterall they will be the recipient of the revenues.

Speeding up will always be taken up later. Start with 160 and 180 kmph up gradation (we already have engines for that speed - rolling stock, rails and signalling needs upgradation). At 180 kmph, trains can average atleast 100 kmph if not 120 kmph. Even MS - Cape will take only 6-7 hours. Not bad at all.

I dont think the economy will gain much by speeding beyond that as we dont have any cities more than 700 km from each other. I cant accept the day commute argument. They are random, infrequent and not made by regular commuters. No one is going to day communicate to work in Chennai from Trichy or Salem.

Paati nilaava kaati, kadha sollikite soru ootura mathiri solreenga :lol:

Anyways, nice examples and comparison!! :cheers:Awesome!! Hats off Shyam!! Please consider taking up a teaching position in technical universities and Management institutions!!

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 07:16 PM

^^ Dabbu kedaikaathu :D

CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu will establish 10 super specialty hospitals across the state and will provide tertiary care within 150 km from any location in the state, according to the Vision 2023 document.

Estimating an investment of Rs 11,000 crore, the document stated that primary and secondary health networks will be strengthened in such a manner that a referral centre is available within a maximum distance of 5 km of every sub-centre.

The government said that all primary health centres will be provided with good residential accommodation for at least a doctor and three staff nurses.

Special focus will also be provided on non-communicable diseases like diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and cancer which are emerging as a major cause of mortality, the document said, adding that a two-pronged strategy will be adopted to tackle these.

The document also said trauma and disaster management systems will be strengthened across the state to provide relief services within an hour of receipt of information.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/total-healthcare-within-reach-with-med-package/241846-60-120.html

As you can see we can get 10 super specialty hospitals for 11000 crores. And I can tell you that 1100 crores for a hospital is pretty generous. You can expect an actual world class facility for that sort of money (something similar to Chennai Apollo).

R2IChennai

March 23rd, 2012, 07:19 PM

kannan infratech

March 23rd, 2012, 07:20 PM

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 07:22 PM

:runaway:

oh!! Idhe maadiri than thalai therikka oora vittu pizhaika vazhi illama oduvaanganu visual-avae kaamichiteengala? [Courtesy: Kamal - paatavae padichiteengala].

I second maduraikarenda, you make awsome teacher Shyam. Visual / right-brain stuff use senji pachakkunu manasula otturamaadiri oru smiley'la puriya vechiteenga :cheers: #friday-timepass

natarajan1986

March 23rd, 2012, 07:22 PM

what is the target 2012 -2013 or this regime ,It is like india 2020 and now people stopped that

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 07:25 PM

I fully concur with Tshayam on HSR, but trusting railways with IR is the big problem?
Even if you double or triiple the number of trains announced will depend on railway ministry and they will allocate two trains per year.

The only way for TN to invest is either it is in state's control or preferably private, when we go for private might as well go for a fix that will work next 100 years right?

Yes, cajoling IR may be a real headache. And to be fair, there not more passenger trains just because of capacity constraints. There are simply no slots for additional trains in any of the high traffic sectors. That is why I am advocating bank rolling of these projects by state government. Once there is additional tracks available with better signalling, IR would have no problem introducing more trains.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 07:37 PM

@ Shyam:

IR will never allow anybody else to run their operations. TN SG does not have that kind of money to invest also. PPP partner will not come and invest in IR unless he has absolute operation control.

Now coming to the next point - Why the MNCs, foreign Govts and Fin Instns are interested to invest ?

If it is purely IR control, they will not. They may prefer a SPV where IR has a very small share holding (for namesake) without any control.

The main attraction to India is as follows. These MNCs who invested in freight train & HSR infra, mfg plants in a big way were expecting a big boom in USA & Europe but it did not happen. They have the infra ready but no orders. So they are ready to come to India which they see as much better place than China, where they may not get the orders also. If CG & SG use this demand to extract a better deal, it will be nice.

Then coming to your idea - deploying the resources in more needy areas. Please understand that these companies will not invest in water or edu or health whether you give the HSR / Freight trains orders or not. So if you order with them, you get at a concession - in PPP terms, long concession period. Only land cost to SG.

But using these, if the industries are developed in hinterlands, the economy of the whole state will improve. Why then all should ask for land near Chennai / Ennore ?

Even a power plant has to be installed by the PPP operator to operate the system so that the existing Power plants are not taxed.

Only worrying factor from op reason is that the old Gen HSRs are power guzzlers. Unless the companies come up with more modern less power consuming tractor units, it may deplete earth resources to some extent. Still may be better than aeroplanes.

Okay if the companies completely funds them - No subsidized LA or power and if they are confident of making a profit, there is absolutely no harm (except what I am going to point out) in allowing them. If the state government is planning that way, it is fine. No loss of state's resources.

But I will give you a hypothetical scenario (which I think will happen if that route is allowed): The HSR operator builds the line (say 950 km - 2 corridors). He runs it for 3 years.

He makes a slim operational profit during that period but not able to make a profit as a company. The situation is sort of like Kingfisher. The original company (say a Japanese company) can lo longer take the burden of servicing this companies debt. He gives two options to the government.

1. Subsidize the rail (to the tune of say 5000 crore per annum)
2. Stops the service in which case, the infrastructure will just lie idle and the best the state can do is dismantle and fire sale the tracks and power equipment and convert the city stations to malls.

What would you do? Subsidize the rail (and make it a drag on yearly budget) or scrap it altogether (waste of everything and ends up with where we started)?

To be fair, I am not asking anything far fetched. This is what is happening in the case of Air India and GoI has chosen option 1.

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 07:44 PM

TShyam,
Excellent Points. People are shouting for HSR,without accessing the ROI on it.
IR is also not moving. If IR modernise, then whatever you told will happen.
but that will not happen. Babus, Netha from North India will oppose any modernisation, privatisation of Railways.
So South people shout for HSR.
instead of nothing, lets do something and then face the situation after 15 yrs ...
the reality in TN is different.
People used to save a lot in those days. nowadays saving power is shrinked due to huge price raise in everything.
a govt employee (without bribe, only on salary) who saved in 80s,90s..his son could not save the same proportion, even though his salary is 600 to 700% more.
SG employee who earned 8k was able to save around 3k to 4k easily. could able to buy the properties at ease..now the guy who earns 70k, could not even save 20k..
We are going in u.s way..(spending a lot with empty hands and "projections"..)

kannan infratech

March 23rd, 2012, 07:51 PM

@ shyam:
First of all the concession period for such huge projects run into 30 years or more. It is very similar to the NHAI road infra PPP model. Instead of toll fee, it is ticket fee.

Initially the SG may have to give tax holiday so that the operation gets stabilised. Leter the SG can collect service tax.

You have a point which you did not tell explicitly reg the corruption by the SG - dumping the state and collecting bribes. yeah. It happened in many inds - 2G, coal, Civil aviation etc.

So selecting a PPP partner is very important. Not like the old case of Mono Rail & the malaysian dubakkoor co.or TNRDC IT highway. The selected company should have deep pockets and a strong technical & financial backing.

Strict Pre Q Norms have to be there. Yeah. It is a challenge but doable.

Probably, we can take the current Mono Rail tender as a test case for JJ govt. Let us see how the SG decides.

satchitananda

March 23rd, 2012, 07:55 PM

10-15 varushama thondai thanni theera SPDR rail vidungannu kathi kathi...

(SPDR rail services) கத்தி போய் (HSR)வாலு வந்ததது டும் டும் டும்..

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 07:55 PM

Dont get me wrong, I am not anti HSR per se. It is fine if the initial total cost is like 40 crore per km or even 50 crore km.

Even then I dont think more than two lines (MAS-CBE and MAS-MDU) for around 700 km is feasible. The cost will be around 30000 crores and assuming it is built over 7-8 years, most can be funded by equity itself and there wont be much need for debt (maybe 50%). Servicing 15000 crore debt wont be a big drag and the govt can definitely go ahead.

But figures like 132,000 crore is damn serious and frankly quite scary. We cannot (neither govt nor any private player) come up with those kind of money without significant debt and that will drag the finances of whoever takes on the debt.

TShyam

March 23rd, 2012, 07:59 PM

No sir, I am not talking of corruption. I am actually assuming we get the most honest company in the world. I am pretty sure that if they are not provided funding and asked to come up with their own money, they would end up like Air India.

satchitananda

March 23rd, 2012, 08:00 PM

Will there be cost differential between HSR and fuel efficient planes.. sufficient enough to justify massive investments in HSR ??

kannan infratech

March 23rd, 2012, 08:02 PM

10-15 varushama thondai thanni theera SPDR rail vidungannu kathi kathi...

(SPDR rail services) கத்தி போய் (HSR)வாலு வந்ததது டும் டும் டும்..

Namma TN HSR / Freight Corridor angellam pogumpa. :lol:

IR dhan pogathu :bash:

satchitananda

March 23rd, 2012, 08:06 PM

Namma TN HSR / Freight Corridor angellam pogumpa. :lol:

IR dhan pogathu :bash:

Will the CG(esp Cong) put the brakes on this local effort as it makes them look like jokers.. ??

kannan infratech

March 23rd, 2012, 08:15 PM

Will the CG(esp Cong) put the brakes on this local effort as it makes them look like jokers.. ??

I think those days are being numbered.

WB, ADB & JICA are directly working with SGs. Only for the inflow, RBI permission is required and that is merely procedural.

TN has done an wonderful thing called TN urban Infra Fund and has TUIFISIL & TUFIDCO for that. They have reasonable op freedom (not 100% of course) and they directly work with ADB , JAICA etc.

In spite of CG's negligence / obstacles, Gujarat has moved on at a much faster pace and the investors actually convince the CG for Gujarat.

I want a similar situation in TN also. But only a non corrupt & brave leader can do that.

staravindan

March 23rd, 2012, 08:38 PM

I think those days are being numbered.

WB, ADB & JICA are directly working with SGs. Only for the inflow, RBI permission is required and that is merely procedural.

TN has done an wonderful thing called TN urban Infra Fund and has TUIFISIL & TUFIDCO for that. They have reasonable op freedom (not 100% of course) and they directly work with ADB , JAICA etc.

In spite of CG's negligence / obstacles, Gujarat has moved on at a much faster pace and the investors actually convince the CG for Gujarat.

I want a similar situation in TN also. But only a non corrupt & brave leader can do that.

It seems JJ following Modi style

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 10:53 PM

I hope TN doesn't start announcing, we got paper investments of several lakh crores.

kongutamizhan

March 23rd, 2012, 10:58 PM

I hope TN doesn't start announcing, we got paper investments of several lakh crores.

What's your point? Guj has only paper invsts and TN is shining even without it?

Modhalla mezhuguvathiya adhoda unmayana market rate-la vangi tamizhan veeta shine pannurananu unmayana nilavaram (chennaikku velila kudumbam irundha) kelunga.

BTW do you know cost of candle in TN today? Take a stab

karkal

March 23rd, 2012, 11:03 PM

No. I'm saying only GJ investments are real, rest are just paper investments. So don't do it.

hotpotato

March 23rd, 2012, 11:31 PM

What's your point? Guj has only paper invsts and TN is shining even without it?
Modhalla mezhuguvathiya adhoda unmayana market rate-la vangi tamizhan veeta shine pannurananu unmayana nilavaram (chennaikku velila kudumbam irundha) kelunga.
BTW do you know cost of candle in TN today? Take a stab

அட அவரே பொழுது போகாம தூண்டில் போடுறாரு அதுல போயி எதுக்கு மாட்ட பாக்குறீங்க?

சும்மா சொல்ல கூடாது CI 2.0 ௦௦ பலே கில்லாடி தான் :cheers:
ஆஸ்கார் தரலம்யா

krishnaswamy

March 23rd, 2012, 11:42 PM

அ
சும்மா சொல்ல கூடாது CI 2.0 ௦௦ பலே கில்லாடி தான் :cheers:

CI 2.0? Karkal?

R2IChennai

March 23rd, 2012, 11:57 PM

kt should keep the count on "tamilnadula power illa"
posts, We all know that and its like India is a poor country
why keep saying the samething like broken record

I sincerely believe Power situation will improve in a year time we have to suffer until then because of the poor policies of both the kazhaga govts, move on please

krishnaswamy

March 24th, 2012, 12:06 AM

I sincerely believe Power situation will improve in a year time we have to suffer until then because of the poor policies of both the kazhaga govts, move on please
Sir,
KT is question on attitude and ability.
everybody knows power situation was worst and that is also 1 reason, people voted for change.
KT is questing why did this govt did not do even smaller things to manage power crisis in the last 10 months...
when they can't do even the smaller things, knowing very well on the impact of power.. how this Govt can deliver those big...VISION

Arul Murugan

March 24th, 2012, 06:44 AM

Tshyam give me time for 2-3 days.. weekend time irukathu unga post ku reply panna.

But one thing I want to add.. whether you upgrade the existing tracks to 250KMPH MPS and avg speed to 170KMPH, double/electrify tracks on existing routes.... It will get congested more and more given the fact that mobility is increasing year by year in massive rate.

(just check some of China's rail network on some dense populated and industrial routes, they have 6 railway tracks on same route in which 4 dedicated to passenger and 2 is mixed)...... So let it be 10 or 20 or even 30 years!! even we will be pushed to that level because of developments.

If mobility is considered only due to migration then majority of the trains/buses should run empty of day time. That is not the case!!

Also if CG has vision of making national HSR grid, it has vast potential if we add Bangalore and Kerala.

10-15 varushama thondai thanni theera SPDR rail vidungannu kathi kathi...

(SPDR rail services) கத்தி போய் (HSR)வாலு வந்ததது டும் டும் டும்..

Our suggestion for HSR -for pass and also freight, expressway also passes through major existing sipcots, SEZ and proposed industrial corridors. Also it will be linked from these new HSR routes to existing routes at every proposed stations.:)

joefernando

March 24th, 2012, 04:57 PM

விளம்பர இன்பத்துக்காக இல்லாத நிதியில் ஏராளமான திட்டங்கள்: கருணாநிதி

சென்னை, மார்ச் 24: விளம்பர இன்பத்துக்காக இல்லாத நிதியில் ஏராளமான திட்டங்களை முதல்வர் வெளியிடுகிறார் என்று திமுக தலைவர் கருணாநிதி அறிக்கை ஒன்றில் குறிப்பிட்டுள்ளார்.
வழக்கம்போல் அவரே கேள்வி கேட்டு, அவரே பதில் கூறுவது போல் வெளியிட்டுள்ள அறிக்கையில், இவ்வாறு கூறியுள்ளார்.
அந்த அறிக்கை விவரம்...
கேள்வி :- தமிழக அரசின் 2012-2013ஆம் ஆண்டுக்கான நிதிநிலை அறிக்கை 26ந்தேதி வரவிருப்பதாக ஏடுகளில் எல்லாம் அரசின் சார்பில் தெரிவிக்கப்பட்ட பிறகு, இன்றைய தினம் முதலமைச்சர் சில அறிவிப்புகளைச் செய்திருப்பது முறைதானா?
கருணாநிதி:- ஜெயலலிதாவின் தலைமையிலான ஆட்சியில் சட்டமன்ற மரபுகள், நீதிமன்ற மரபுகள் போன்ற உயர்ந்த மரபுகளுக்கு எந்த அளவிற்கு மரியாதை தரப்படுகிறது என்பது ஏற்கனவே தெரிந்த ஒன்றுதான். கடந்த ஆண்டு நிதிநிலை அறிக்கை தாக்கல் செய்யப்படும் என்று அறிவிக்கப்பட்ட பிறகு, புதிய வரிகளை தமிழக அரசின் சார்பில் விதித்து அரசு அறிவிப்பு வெளியிடப்பட்டது. அதைப்போலவேதான் 26ஆம் தேதி நிதி நிலை அறிக்கை தாக்கல் செய்யப்படும் என்று ஏற்கனவே அறிவிக்கப்பட்டுள்ள நிலையில்; இன்றையதினம் முதலமைச்சர் காவல் துறையை அதிநவீனமயமாக்க 34 கோடி ரூபாய்க்கு முன்னோடி திட்டங்களையும், ஆதி திராவிடர், பிற்படுத்தப்பட்ட, மிகவும் பிற்படுத் தப்பட்ட மாணவர்கள் 4,050 பேர் பயன்பெறத் தக்க வகையில் 5.34 கோடி ரூபாய்க்கு 53 விடுதிகளைத் தொடங்கவும், 187 புதிய பணி இடங்களைத் தோற்றுவிக்கவும், போடியில் 94 கோடி ரூபாயில் புதியதாக அரசு பொறியியல் கல்லூரி தொடங்கவும் முதலமைச்சர் உத்தர விட்டதாக ஏடுகளிலே செய்தி வந்துள்ளது. நிதி நிலை அறிக்கை என்றாலே அரசின் புதிய திட்டங்களை அறிவிக்கும் அறிக்கைதான். ஆனால் நிதிநிலை அறிக்கை 26ஆம் தேதி படிக்கப்படும் என்ற செய்தியை அறிவித்து விட்டு, இவ்வாறு அரசின் அறிவிப்புகளை யெல்லாம் முதலமைச்சர் செய்வது முறை தானா? ஒருவேளை நிதி நிலை அறிக்கை யிலே இந்த அறிவிப்புகளையெல்லாம் சேர்த்தால் அதனை நிதியமைச்சர்தான் படித்தறிவிக்க வேண்டும்;
முதலமைச்சர் அம்மா உத்தரவு என்று ஏடுகளிலே வராது என்பதால் இவ்வாறு அறிவிக்கப்படுகிறதா என்று தெரியவில்லை.
சட்டமன்ற மரபுகளை இவ்வாறு மதிக்காததைப் போலத்தான் உச்ச நீதிமன்றம், உயர் நீதிமன்றம் ஆகியவை மக்கள் நலப் பணியாளர்களுக்கு மீண்டும் வேலை தர வேண்டுமென்று தீர்ப்பளித்து பல நாட்கள் ஆகியும் அதைப்பற்றி தமிழக அரசு எந்த நடவடிக்கையும் எடுக்காமல் உள்ளது.
கேள்வி :- நலத்திட்ட உதவிகள் கிடைக்காமல் மாற்றுத் திறனாளிகள் தவிப்பதாகவும், - நல வாரியம் செயல்படுவதும் இல்லை என்றும் சொல்லப்
படுகிறதே?
கருணாநிதி :- இது பற்றி இரண்டு நாட்களுக்கு முன்பு வந்த ஒரு செய்தியிலேயே, “கடந்த 2010ஆம் ஆண்டு ஏப்ரலில், அப்போதைய முதல்வர் கருணாநிதியை தலைவராகக் கொண்டு, மாற்றுத் திறனாளிகள் நலவாரியம் புதுப்பிக்கப்பட்டது. சமூக பாதுகாப்புத் திட்டத்தின்கீழ், மாற்றுத் திறனாளிகளுக்கு பல்வேறு நலத் திட்ட உதவிகள் வழங்கப்பட்டன. ஆட்சி மாற்றத்திற்குப் பிறகு, கடந்த ஆகஸ்டில், தமிழக பட்ஜெட்
கூட்டத் தொடரில், சமூக நலத் துறை மானியக் கோரிக்கையின் மீதான விவாதம் நடந்தபோது, அந்தத் துறையின் அமைச்சர், மாற்றுத் திறனாளிகள் நல வாரியம் மாற்றி அமைக்கப்பட்டு, விரைவில் செயல்படத் தொடங்கும், நடப்பு நிதியாண்டிற்காக வாரியத்திற்கு ஒரு கோடி ரூபாய் ஒதுக்கீடு செய்யப்படும் என்றார். ஆனால் இது நாள் வரை வாரியம் மாற்றி அமைக்கப்படாததால், ஒதுக்கீடு செய்யப்பட்ட நிதி செலவாகாமல்
உள்ளது. மாற்றுத் திறனாளி கள் நல வாரியக் கூட்டம், மூன்று மாதத்திற்கு ஒரு முறை நடத்தப்பட வேண்டும். ஆனால் பிப். 2011இல் நடந்த முதல் கூட்டத் திற்குப் பிறகு, இதுவரை கூட்டம் நடக்கவில்லை” என்றெல்லாம் செய்தி வந்துள்ளது. என்னைச் சந்தித்த மாற்றுத் திறனாளிகள் சங்கத்தைச் சேர்ந்தவர்களும் இதுபற்றி என்னிடம் கூறி வருத்தப்பட்டார்கள்.
கேள்வி :- சத்துணவு மையங்களில் புதியதாக அலுவலர்கள் காலி இடங்களிலே நியமிக்கப்படுவார்கள் என்று அ.தி.மு.க. அரசு அறிவித்தவாறு
நியமிக்கப் பட்டுவிட்டார்களா?
கருணாநிதி :- தமிழகத்தில் 30 ஆயிரத்துக்கும் மேற்பட்ட சத்துணவு மையங்கள் செயல்பட்டு வருகின்றன. ஒவ்வொரு பள்ளியிலும் சரா சரியாக 75க்கும் மேற்பட்ட மாணவர்கள், சத்துணவு சாப்பிட்டு வருகின்றனர். ஒரு சத்துணவு மையத்தில் அமைப்பாளர், சமையலர், உதவியாளர் ஆகிய பணி இடங்கள் உண்டு. அவர்கள் மூலமே, உணவு தயார் செய்வதற்கான நடவடிக்கைகள் மேற்கொள்ளப்படும். புதியதாக பொறுப்பேற்றவுடன் முதல்வர் ஜெயலலிதா, சட்டசபை கூட்டத் தொடரில், சத்துணவு மற்றும் அங்கன்வாடி மையத்தில் 28 ஆயிரம் புதிய பணி இடங்கள் நிரப்பப்படும் என அறிவித்தார். பல மாதங்களாகியும், புதிய பணியிடம் நிரப்புவது தொடர்பாக அரசு சார்பில் இதுவரை, எந்தவித தகவலும் இல்லை.
கேள்வி :- தமிழக அரசின் 2012-2013ஆம் ஆண்டுக்கான நிதி நிலை அறிக்கை 26ஆம் தேதி வெளிவரவிருக்கின்ற நேரத்தில் கடந்த ஆண்டு நிதி நிலை அறிக்கையில் அறிவித்த திட்டங்கள் நிறைவேற்றப்பட்டுவிட்டதா?
கருணாநிதி :- ஒரு பானைச் சோற்றுக்கு ஒரு சோறு பதம் என்பார்கள். தமிழக அரசின் பள்ளிக் கல்வித் துறை சார்பில் கடந்த ஆண்டு நிதி நிலை அறிக்கை விவாதத்தின்போது, சமச்சீர் கல்வி பாடப் புத்தகங்களின் தரத்தை மேம்படுத்த வல்லுனர் குழு அமைப்பு, ஆசிரியர் கல்வி ஆராய்ச்சி மற்றும் பயிற்சி இயக்குனரகத்தை, அரசு மாநில கல்வி ஆராய்ச்சி பயிற்சி குழுமமாக தரம் உயர்த்துதல், கல்வி தகவல் மேலாண்மை முறை, பள்ளி மாணவர்களுக்கான பல்வேறு நலத் திட்டங்களை ஒருங்கிணைத்து செயல் படுத்தும், நமது குழந்தைகள் திட்டம் போன்றவைகள் அறிவிக்கப்பட்டன. ஆனால் இந்த நான்குமே இன்னும் நிலுவையில் இருப்பதாக இதழ் ஒன்று தெரிவித்துள்ளது.
2,682 முதுகலை ஆசிரியர் பணி இடங்கள் நிரப்பப்படும் என்று தெரிவித்திருந்தார்கள். அதற்கு இப்போதுதான் விண்ணப்பங்களே வழங்கப்பட்டு வருகின்றன. 5,790 பட்டதாரி ஆசிரியர்களை, 4,342 இடை நிலை ஆசிரியர்களை தேர்வு செய்யப் போகிறோம் என்றார்கள். அதற்கு முதலில் ஆசிரியர் தகுதித் தேர்வு நடத்த வேண்டும். ஆனால் இதற்கும் இப்போதுதான் விண்ணப்பங்கள் வழங்கப்படவுள்ளன. இந்த நிலையில் இந்த
ஆண்டுக்கான நிதிநிலை அறிக்கை வெளி வரவுள்ளது. தமிழகத்தில் 1ஆம் வகுப்பு முதல் ஐந்தாம் வகுப்பு வரை உள்ள ஆரம்பப் பள்ளிகளில்,
ஆசிரியர் பணிகளுக்கு, ஆசிரியர் பட்டயப் பயிற்சி முடித்தவர்கள், பணி அமர்த்தப்பட்டு வருகின்றனர். தமிழகத்திலே தனியார் மற்றும் அரசு உதவிபெறும் ஆசிரியர் பயிற்சிப் பள்ளிகள் 754, அரசு ஆசிரியர் பயிற்சிப் பள்ளிகள் 17 என்று மொத்தம் 771 பள்ளிகள்
செயல்பட்டு வருகின்றன. இவற்றின் மூலம் ஆண்டுதோறும் சுமார் ஒரு லட்சம் மாணவர்கள் படித்து, வெளியேறி வருகின்றனர். ஆனால் 2011ஆம் ஆண்டு மே மாதத்தில் ஆசிரியர் பயிற்சிப் பள்ளி மாணவர்களுக்கான தேர்வு நடந்தது. அதில் தேர்வு எழுதிய மாணவர்களுக்கு, இதுவரை முடிவுகளை வெளியிடாமல், அரசு நிறுத்தி வைத்துள்ளதாக நாளேடுகள் குறிப்பிட்டுள்ளன. இந்த நிலையில் இந்த ஆண்டு மே திங்களில் புதிய மாணவர்களுக் கான தேர்வுகள் நெருங்கி வருகின்றன. என்ன செய்யப் போகிறார்களோ? எங்கேயாவது இடைத் தேர்தல் நடைபெற்றால், அங்கே சென்று பணியாற்றவே அமைச்சர்களுக்கு நேரம் போதவில்லை என்கிறபோது தேர்வாவது? முடிவாவது? கடந்த ஆண்டு, பட்ஜெட்டில் அறிவிக்கப்பட்டு, இந்து சமய அறநிலையத் துறை அதிகாரிகளுக்காக வாங்கப்பட்ட 560 மடிக் கணினிகள், பரணில் தூங்கிக் கொண்டிருக்கின்றன.
2011-2012ஆம் ஆண்டு பட்ஜெட் மானியக் கோரிக்கையின் போது “இந்து சமய அறநிலையத் துறையில் உள்ள கோவில்களின் உபரி நிதியில்
இருந்து, கூடுதல், இணை, துணை மற்றும் உதவி ஆணையர்ள், அனைத்து நிலை செயல் அலுவலர்கள், களப் பணியாற்றும் சரக ஆய்வர்கள்
உள்ளிட்ட 873 அலுவலர்களுக்கு மடிக் கணினிகள் வழங்கப் படும்” என்று அறிவிக்கப்பட்டது. இதற்கான செலவு 3.50 கோடி ரூபாயாக இருக்கும் என மதிப்பிடப்பட்டது. கடந்த ஆண்டு ஆகஸ்ட் 4ம் தேதி பட்ஜெட் தாக்கல் செய்யப்பட்டபோது, அறநிலையத் துறை அமைச்சராக இருந்தவர் சண்முகநாதன். அவர் மாற்றப்பட்டு அடுத்து இந்தத் துறை அமைச்சராக வந்தவர் பரஞ்சோதி. அவரும் போய் இப்போது அந்தத் துறை அமைச்சர் ஆனந்தன். ஆகஸ்ட் மாதம் அறிவிப்பு செய்யப் பட்டாலும், டிசம்பர் 15ஆம் தேதிதான் 560 மடிக்கணினிகளை வாங்க முடிவு செய்யப்பட்டு,
வாங்கப்பட்டு, அவற்றை அலுவலர்கள் மற்றும் பணியாளர்களுக்கு வழங்குவது தொடர்பாக, தனியே அறிவுரைகள் வழங்கப்படும் என்றும், அதுவரை அனைத்தையும் அந்தந்த இணை ஆணையர்கள் பாதுகாப்பாக வைத்திருக்க வேண்டுமென்றும் அறநிலையத் துறை கமிஷனர் சந்திரகுமார் கூறி, அந்த மடிக் கணினிகள் எல்லாம் அப்படியே தூசு படிந்து கிடக்கின்றன. அடுத்த பட்ஜெட்டும் வந்து விட்டது!
கேள்வி :- ஜெயலலிதாவின் தொலைநோக்குத் திட்டம் எப்படி?
கருணாநிதி :- பத்தாண்டுகளில் 20 ஆயிரம் மெகாவாட் - 25 லட்சம் வீடுகள் - 2 கோடி பேருக்கு மனித வளப் பயிற்சி - 15 லட்சம் கோடி ரூபாய் முதலீடுதானே அம்மையாரின் கனவு திட்டம்? கனவுதான்!
ஒரு நாள் பத்திரிகைச் செய்தி - அவ்வளவுதான்!
இல்லாத நிதியில் ஏராளமான திட்டங்கள்; பூஜ்ஜியத்திலே ஒரு ராஜ்ஜியம்! எல்லாம் விளம்பர இன்பம்!

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joefernando

March 24th, 2012, 05:22 PM

தமிழக அரசின் தொலைநோக்கு கனவு நிறைவேறுமா? கணக்கு இடிக்கிறதே!

தமிழக அரசின் தொலைநோக்குத் திட்டத்தில், அடுத்த 11 ஆண்டுகளில் எதிர்பார்க்கப்படும் 15 லட்சம் கோடி ரூபாயில், பெரும்பாலும் தனியார் முதலீடுகளை சார்ந்தே உள்ளதால், அரசின் கனவு நிறைவேறுமா? என்ற கேள்வி எழுந்துள்ளது.

கட்டமைப்புக்கு முக்கியத்துவம்: மொத்தம் எதிர்பார்க்கப்படும் 15 லட்சம் கோடி ரூபாய் முதலீட்டில், 13.25 லட்சம் கோடி ரூபாய், உள்கட்டமைப்பு திட்டங்களுக்காக எதிர்பார்க்கப்படுபவை. இதில், எரிசக்தித் துறையில் 4.5 லட்சம் கோடி, போக்குவரத்துத் துறையில் 3.7 லட்சம் கோடி, தொழில் மற்றும் வர்த்தகத் துறைக்கு 1.6 லட்சம் கோடி, நகர்ப்புற உள்கட்டமைப்புக்கு 2.75 லட்சம் கோடி என, எதிர்பார்க்கப்பட்டுள் ளது. இது தவிர, பொது மற்றும் சமூக உள்கட்டமைப்புத் திட்டங்களுக்கு 1 லட்சம் கோடி ரூபாய் எதிர்பார்க்கப்பட்டுள்ளது. அதாவது, இதை 2023க்குள் செயல்படுத்த வேண்டுமானால், வரும் நிதி ஆண்டில் இருந்து, ஒவ்வொரு ஆண்டும், 1.2 லட்சம் கோடி முதலீடுகள் வர வேண்டும்.

தனியார் முதலீட்டை நம்பி...: இந்த துறைகளில் அதிக அளவு செலவிடலாம் என்று எண்ணும் காரணம், தனியார் முதலீடு தான். இந்த வகை முதலீடுகள் திட்டம் லாபகரமாக இருந்தால் மட்டுமே வரும். அது மட்டுமின்றி, அரசுடன் சேர்ந்து திட்டத்தைச் செயல்படுத்துவதில், சிக்கல் இல்லாமல் இருக்க வேண்டும். அதாவது, டெண்டர் எடுக்கும் முன் லஞ்சம், பணி துவங்கும் முன் லஞ்சம் போன்ற சூழல்கள் இருந்தால், தனியார் முதலீடு வராது. உதாரணத்திற்கு, மோனோ ரயில் திட்டத்தை தமிழக அரசு அறிவித்து, பல முறை டெண்டர் திறக்கப்பட்ட போதும், அதை நிறைவேற்ற தனியாரிடம் ஆர்வம் இல்லை. காரணம், அவர்களே அந்த திட்டத்தை முடித்து, செயல்படுத்தி, மக்களிடம் கட்டணம் வசூலித்து, லாபம் சம்பாதித்துக் கொள்ள வேண்டும். உலகில் எந்த நாட்டிலும் நீண்ட தூரத்திற்கு மோனோ ரயில் செயல்படுத்தப்படவில்லை. ஏனெனில், அது லாபகரமான திட்டம் இல்லை. இதனால், தனியார் நிறுவனங்கள் இந்த திட்டத்தில் ஆர்வம் காட்டவில்லை.

நடைமுறை சிக்கல்கள்: சென்னைக்கு அருகே கிரீன்பீல்டு விமான நிலையம் என்பது, ஆறு ஆண்டுகளுக்கு முன் அறிவிக்கப்பட்டதாகும். ஆனால், இடம் தேர்வு செய்வது, நில ஆர்ஜிதம் போன்றவற்றில் பிரச்னை ஏற்பட்டது. எனவே, இத்திட்டம் கிடப்பில் போடப்பட்டது. அதே நேரத்தில், பெங்களூரில் இத்திட்டத்தைச் செயல்படுத்த அறிவிப்பு செய்யப்பட்டு, திட்டமும் முடிக்கப்பட்டுவிட்டது. விரைவு சாலைகள், பிரத்யேக சரக்கு வழிச் சாலைகள், துறைமுகங்கள் மேம்பாடு போன்றவை தற்போது அறிவிக்கப்பட்டுள் ளன. இவற்றை எல்லாம் அரசு செயல்படுத்துவதற்கு போதுமான நிதி ஆதாரம் இல்லை. மேலும், இது போன்ற சாலைகளுக்கு நில ஆர்ஜிதம் போன்ற பிரச்னைகள் அதிகம் ஏற்படும். இவற்றுக்கான வழிமுறைகள் ஏதும், தொலைநோக்கு திட்டத்தில் தெரிவிக்கப்படவில்லை.

நிதி ஆதாரம் எங்கே? தொலைநோக்குத் திட்டத்தில் எதிர்பார்க்கப்படும் முதலீடுகளில், மாநில அரசின் நிதி 60 சதவீதம் என்றும், மத்திய அரசின் நிதி 25 சதவீதம் என்றும், தனியார் நிதி 15 சதவீதம் என்றும் கூறப்பட்டுள்ளது. மேலும், மாநில அரசின் பங்கு குறைந்து, தனியார் பங்கீடு வரும் காலத்தில் அதிகரிக்கும் என்றும் தெரிவிக்கப்பட்டுள்ளது. மொத்தம் 15 லட்சம் கோடி ரூபாயில், 60 சதவீதம் மாநில அரசு பங்கு என்றால், ஒன்பது லட்சம் கோடி ரூபாய், அரசின் முதலீடாக இருக்க வேண்டும். ஆனால், தமிழக அரசின் ஆண்டு பட்ஜெட்டே 1 லட்சம் கோடி ரூபாய் அளவில் தான் உள்ளது. இதில், கட்டமைப்பு முதலீடுகளை பொறுத்தவரை ஒவ்வொரு ஆண்டும் 1.2 லட்சம் கோடி ரூபாய் முதலீடு செய்ய வேண்டும். 2012-13க்கான மத்திய பட்ஜெட்டில், உள்கட்டமைப்புத் துறைக்கு தனியார் முதலீடை ஊக்குவிக்க சலுகைகள் அளித்து, வரும் நிதி ஆண்டில் 50 ஆயிரம் கோடி ரூபாய் முதலீடு வரும் என, எதிர்பார்க்கப்பட்டுள்ளது. மத்திய அரசாலே அவ்வளவு நிதி மட்டும் தான் திரட்ட முடியும் என்ற நிலையில், மாநில அரசு ஒவ்வொரு ஆண்டும், 1 லட்சம் கோடி ரூபாய்க்கு மேல் திரட்ட முடியுமா என்பது கேள்விக்குறி தான்.

21 கி.மீ.,க்கு 10 ஆண்டுகள்! தொலைநோக்குத் திட்டத்தில் போக்குவரத்து வசதியை பொறுத்தவரை, சென்னை - கோவை - மதுரை - கன்னியாகுமரி இடையே அதிவேக ரயில் இயக்கப்படும் என்றும், சென்னை - தூத்துக்குடி இடையே பிரத்யேக சரக்கு வழிப் பாதை அமைக்கப்படும் என்றும் அறிவிக்கப்பட்டுள்ளது. சென்னை - மதுரை இடையே இருவழி ரயில் பாதை அமைக்க வேண்டுமென, 20 ஆண்டுகளாக கோரிக்கை இருந்து வருகிறது. ஆனால், இந்த திட்டம் இன்னும் நிறைவேறவில்லை. அப்படியிருக்கும் போது, அடுத்த 11 ஆண்டுகளில், சென்னை - கோவை - மதுரை - கன்னியாகுமரி இடையே அதிவேக ரயில் போக்குவரத்து என்பது சாத்தியமா என்ற கேள்வி எழுந்துள்ளது. அதேபோல, 2,000 கி.மீ., நெடுஞ்சாலை, ஆறு மற்றும் எட்டு வழிச்சாலையாக மாற்றப்படும் என்று அறிவிக்கப்பட்டுள்ளது. சென்னையில், சிறுசேரி வரையிலான நான்கு வழி விரைவுச்சாலை அமைக்கும் பணியை முடிக்கவே, 10 ஆண்டுகளுக்கு மேல் ஆனது. 21 கி.மீ., தூரத்தை முடிக்க இவ்வளவு காலம் என்றால், 2,000 கி.மீ., தூரத்தை 11 ஆண்டுகளில், ஆறு மற்றும் எட்டு வழிச்சாலையாக மாற்றுவது என்பது சாத்தியமா என்ற கேள்வியும் எழுந்துள்ளது.

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