I've been keeping track of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kerry over the past couple of days and its seems that North Queensland will be getting quite alot of rain and a battering.

TC Kerry is a Cat 3 cyclone and is slowly heading west at around 7km/h, It is predicted to hit Thursday and looks like its headed straight for Townsville. It looks like it will be the biggest Cyclone to hit Townsville after Althea.

Heres the latest Satelite image from BoM: Bureau of Meteorology.
http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00035.200501092330.jpg

And Tracking Map
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65001.gif?1105295786944

So get supplies ready and all the neccesary precautions needed etc.
Strong Winds to Gales are expected along the coast from Cairns to Coolangatta as a cause of this Cyclone and the High is the Bass.

damn. I wish we'd get a cyclone. I remember we got and almost-but-technically-not-a-cyclone in March last year. We got tonnes of rain. It was fantastic.

Our first cyclone for the season. That explains all the rain that Cairns has been getting lately. Dont worry Gertzy im all prepared for the cylcone season :)

damn. I wish we'd get a cyclone. I remember we got and almost-but-technically-not-a-cyclone in March last year. We got tonnes of rain. It was fantastic.
try moving the Gold Coast to Cairns or Townsville and you will definitely experience one lol. :)

I've been in one before. I used to live in Townsville. Except, it was that long ago that I don't remember.

Our first cyclone for the season. That explains all the rain that Cairns has been getting lately. Dont worry Gertzy im all prepared for the cylcone season :)

The BOM have said that the cyclone is not yet close enough to affect Australian weather.

I also don't think they know where it is going to go yet - I've seen prediction models which say it will head north, south etc but I havn't seen one which says that it will hit Townsville.

12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 18.4S3 158.8E2
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 18.7S6 158.6E0
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 19.3S3 158.6E0
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 19.9S9 158.8E2

The 48 hour prediction has it at a tad south of Townsville but over 12 degrees East and if it continued on that course it isn't going to come near Townsville at all. This information was released at 15:00 Hawaii time on the 9/05 (-10) or 11am our time.

damn. I wish we'd get a cyclone. I remember we got and almost-but-technically-not-a-cyclone in March last year. We got tonnes of rain. It was fantastic.

I was flying up to Brisbane from Melbourne that night and landed in the middle of it. We had two missed approaches and got in on our third attempt - and the aircraft was going everywhere - I didn't think we'd land. People were throwing up all over the place. Gold Coast airport was closed and aircraft diverted to Brisbane.

At the bagage carousels where they have those rubber strips on the wall that the bags come through, they were literally horizontal like they were attatched to a high power fan.

When I got back I asked my lecturer from the Bureau of Meterology (we do a met subject on my course) about it and he said for all intents and purposes it was a cyclone - it wasn't your textbook model cyclone so for political reasons they called it a storm. But in reality, it was a cyclone.

damn. I wish we'd get a cyclone.

Yeh, I hear that Tracy was a real bag of laughs.

I've only been in one cyclone - Tessie in 2000 - but that was only category 2, not really something to worry about. I wouldn't wish to be in anything higher than that though. The last serere cyclone in Townsville was Althea in 1971, so most people (me included) are fairly complacent.

The BOM have said that the cyclone is not yet close enough to affect Australian weather.

I also don't think they know where it is going to go yet - I've seen prediction models which say it will head north, south etc but I havn't seen one which says that it will hit Townsville.

12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 18.4S3 158.8E2
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 18.7S6 158.6E0
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 19.3S3 158.6E0
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 19.9S9 158.8E2

The 48 hour prediction has it at a tad south of Townsville but over 12 degrees East and if it continued on that course it isn't going to come near Townsville at all. This information was released at 15:00 Hawaii time on the 9/05 (-10) or 11am our time.

I didn't actually really clarify that it was going to hit Townsville, but I was saying that due to the Cyclone heading West and continuing so at this rate, it will be Directly around or a bit north of the Townsville/Thuringowa Urban Area. But then it could head north as the predictions are saying and hit say Cairns, but then again, it could go south-west again and hit Mackay, but I didn't actually clarify that it was going to hit Townsville. If it did, places like Mackay and Cairns will get heaps of rain especially when it becomes a low and spreads all over the place

Bom has predicted it to hit Thursday so yeah and its 1000km EN-E of Mackay.

I've been through a few Cyclones, Here's a list of my experiences.

* TC Joy (1990), It was Cat 1 when it hit Townsville but around Cat 4 when it narrowly missed Cairns on Christmas eve, then it hit Townsville on Boxing Day and my Cousin was also born on that day, I was only 6 mths old at the time so I dont remember it that well.

*TC Justin (1997), It hit Townsville and Cairns but Cairns had the coping and Townsville only had the Flood, I was 7 and I remember it quite Well.

*TC Steve (2000), I was in Cairns at the Time when this Hit and gee, this was the worst I had experienced.

*TC Tessi (2000), I remember this one better than all of them, It was Category 1 but just before it hit it became Cat 2.

^
Where does it say on the BOM site that it will hit Thursday, because I can't find it. It will really have to get a move on because it is currently not moving very fast at all.

This is the latest from Hawaii doesn't seem to agree -

http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/GifArchive/KERRY-05.gif

Steve was that one that just wouldn't go away....across the country and then down through WA.

Tropical cyclone huh.....shopping list for tomorrow

*masking tape for windows and glass in doors
*candles
*batteries
*tinned food (lemon pepper tuna works best! :D )
*bottled water
*new torch

I should probably add some credit to my mobile phone too....

I just remembered I live in the storm surge area..... :eek2:

Tango

I think its a better chance of hitting Brisbane or gold coast then townsville from where it is. Cyclones almost never go north or north west unless weak, and this one is quite strong. Latest movement is slightly south again. I'd say the chance of it hitting anywhere north of Rockhampton are slight.

edit: oh and I've noticed that lately the beaureau are very carefull not to alarm anyone with cyclone predictions. A decade or so ago they had one in a similar spot and put out a cyclone watch and made predictions that the cyclone may threaten Mackay or somewhere in a few days. The cyclone then turned around and headed for New Zealand. Tourist operators were up in arms about lost revenue due to tourists being scared away by a cyclone forecast despite nearly perfect weather along the coast.

Where does it say on the BOM site that it will hit Thursday, because I can't find it. It will really have to get a move on because it is currently not moving very fast at all.

Weather Channel, on Austar claimed that.

I just finished reading the Bulletin and the Burea claim its going to head west again. Cardwell to Mackay is my Prediction Area but then again, it could continue going south or could go east or north but thats the thing with cyclones, you can never predict where they are going, but does anybody else have prediction areas.

^
Until it moves closer to the coast there wont be any prediction areas - it is still a bit far away. One of the reasons the BOM has not made a very big deal about it is that they predicted that wind would break the system up over the next few days, leaving only a tropical depression. Of course that hasn't happened.

Interestingly it is almost a category 4 (when wind strength is taken into account) but if it stays pretty much stationary it will weaken as the sea surface temps underneath start to fall.

My personal guess would be that it will move slightly south overnight then head WSW towards the coast a bit faster and hit land at some point south of Mackay. I really don't think it will get anywhere near our coast until the weekend.

Okay so Around Mackay, Yeah I see that its nearly Cat 4, 960 on the Barometer has to be around 955. There was a Typhoon in th pacific back in 1979 and it read 870hp and Its the most strongest Hurricane/Cyclone/Thypoon etc to be recorded.

The cyclone has definately weakend overnight and is now arround 970hPa; it is expected to further weaken over the next 24 hours. It has pretty much the same latitude as Townsville (19.3) but is located 1300km east. It is expected to travel mostly south for the next day before heading west towards the coast.

http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/GifArchive/KERRY-05.gif

I reckon its just going to keep going South now, I dont think its going to head west, but if it does, and it hits around Mackay, then Townsville and even up to about Cairns is going to get good rain, even flooding in most parts.

You don't reckon? The BOM reckons it will head west, after a day of going south.

However if it keeps going south it is remotely possible Brisbane will get it. Doubt it though.

I reckon its just going to keep going South now, I dont think its going to head west, but if it does, and it hits around Mackay, then Townsville and even up to about Cairns is going to get good rain, even flooding in most parts.

It already has begun tracking west according to the latest data from Hawaii. You may have noticed a change in the map: before it was predicted to go south (and a bit east) now south-west. It will probably be downgraded within the next few hours.

http://www.nager.coolfreepage.com/images/TV%20Archive/Shayrn%20-%206.jpg

This was Sharyn Ghidella hosting a Cyclone Aivu update on NQTV in 1989...
How fashion has changed. (Hair, clothes, sets, makeup)

Yeah, so its changing direction, how the the style has really changed since the 80's, Its spooky seeing what madonna and cyndi lauper used to wear etc, and what my parents used to wear back then for that matter, but thats my opionion. Townsville Meteoroligist Doug Frazer who works for BoM, said that it is likely to hit in the next 48 hrs, so he predicts Thursday.

Aivu was the last severe cyclone to hit Townsville/Lower Burdekin, cat 4 it was but it had no perminate impact on TSV, It Flooded the place which sounded good, but however, I wasn't even born then.

Who said it was going west already? The BOM just released a bulliten saying it's still going south and won't go west for another 12 or 24 hours. It's also a cat 2 now. Looks like nothing north of Rocky will get it, me thinks (If anyone gets it).
.....


Tropical cyclone KERRY has been downgraded to a category 2 cyclone. Kerry is
located in the Coral Sea well east of the Queensland coast, and has been moving
slowly to the southeast.

At 5pm EST, tropical cyclone Kerry was located near latitude 20.0S and longitude
159.4E, about 1000 kilometres east-northeast of Rockhampton. Wind gusts near the
centre of Kerry were estimated to be up to 150 km/Hr.

Kerry is expected to continue moving slowly south for the next 12 to 24 hours
before beginning to turn in a more westerly direction. The combination of Kerry
and a strong ridge along the Queensland coast will continue producing fresh to
strong winds along much of Queensland's east coast for a few days.

Who said it was going west already?

Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2005/sh082005.05011018.gif

As you can see the last measured postion (the unfilled black symbol) shows movement to the west. I'm not sure why their thing doesn't agree with the BOM; perhaps it has again started to move to the southeast.

When it becomes a Tropical depression, Its going to go all over the place.

Ten News Brisbane said that it was weaker overnight but reintensified today... I'm not sure we're they pulled that one from.

ABC News said it would hit the south coast.

Sunshine Coast has closed it's beaches... looks like we're about to feel some effects from it.

Nine news had it going back over New Caledonia. or south-east to east etc.

I possibly will consider advice from the Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center.

But I certainly won't be paying too much attention to Channel Nine when they just make stuff up like that.

Was that on Nine Brisbane News or your local WIN news. Cause I don't remember seeing it on the Brisbane news.

it has gone east a bit and is going E-NE but in the scheme of things it really hasn't moved anywhere noticeable over last 2 days or so

maybe it will start to move west or south west like they have been saying soon and then we'll notice some weather down here in Brisbane.

Ten News Brisbane said that it was weaker overnight but reintensified today... I'm not sure we're they pulled that one from.


Yes I heard that and wondered if they got the two terms mixed up. Did you catch the disgusting kid just before the ad break leading to the weather?

I would say channel 2 probably had the most likely. The BBC had something similar with the cyclone becoming a tropical depression and affecting the lower bit of queensland.

The BOM at 10am said that it has continued to track south, and slightly to the east, and that "it will continue to track southwards for the next 12-18 hours before traking westward".

Once it gets below the tropic of capricorn, It'll get even weaker, this isn't exactly true but most Cyclones die out (no matter how strong) after going by the tropic. But there have been notable ones like Wanda in 74.

^
Generally yes, once they get past rocky they don't last very long at all, but according to the experts, in this case it is more to do with upper level wind shearing than sea surface temps. Anyway it is now a category 1 and is still heading south-east and is predicted to continue on that track overnight before shifting west (and south) tommorow. I guess we'll see.

I'm not sure how acurate this is as maybe the New Caledonians just want it out of their field of interest -

http://www.meteo.nc/temps/cyclones/prod/traj/depa_QMDA02NWBB.jpg

I'd say that too, New Caledonia has been getting alot of rain and by now they would get sick of it.

Aivu was the last severe cyclone to hit Townsville/Lower Burdekin, cat 4 it was but it had no perminate impact on TSV, It Flooded the place which sounded good, but however, I wasn't even born then.

I remember Aivu. All the sugar cane was flattened around Home Hill and Ayr. It was quite strange as it was all bent in one direction and then suddenly it was bent in the other direction as we went north. There was alot of damage to houses. It amazed me that palms could be shredded like they were - palms are bloody strong!!! I was there about 5 days after it hit.

Cyclone Nancy in 1990 was the last major cyclone to impact on SEQ. I remember the wind and trying to drive up the highway with debris blowing over the road and the rain was horizontal.

jt

According to Bom, It seems to have moved slightly south-west.

Might be a rainy weekend.......


Last Update: Thursday, January 13, 2005. 8:23am (AEDT)

Cyclone Kerry to cross Qld coast tomorrow

The weather bureau says tropical Cyclone Kerry has continued to move slowly southwards overnight and may be starting to take a more south-westerly path.

The weak category one cyclone is about 1,000 kilometres east of Rockhampton.

Senior forecaster Jonty Hall says the "remains" of the cyclone should approach the coast somewhere between Fraser Island and the Queensland-New South Wales border late tomorrow or Saturday morning.

"The cyclone is quite weak at the moment, just a weak category one and there is a possibility that it could weaken further," he said.

"It will pack a bit of a punch as it approaches the south coast, so it still needs to be monitored quite closely."

Mr Hall says gale-force winds are likely to develop along the coast as the cyclone approaches.

www.abc.net.au

The Meteo France map shows it heading almost directly towards Brisbane....who knows whether they are right but it is rather current seeing as it was updated at 3:00pm our time.

The BOM have stated that it is moving southwest at 11km and hour. What they havn't mentioned is that it has slightly strengthened and is now moving more west than south.

The BOM have stated that it is moving southwest at 11km and hour. What they havn't mentioned is that it has slightly strengthened and is now moving more west than south.

Bring it on!! I've been in a few weak cyclones, none have been bad. Cyclone Nancy when it hit Northern NSW coast in 1990 and I rode one out in Hong Kong which was a piece of cake. Only trouble was all the rides at Ocean Park were closed.

jt

Might be a rainy weekend.......


Last Update: Thursday, January 13, 2005. 8:23am (AEDT)

Cyclone Kerry to cross Qld coast tomorrow

The weather bureau says tropical Cyclone Kerry has continued to move slowly southwards overnight and may be starting to take a more south-westerly path.

The weak category one cyclone is about 1,000 kilometres east of Rockhampton.

Senior forecaster Jonty Hall says the "remains" of the cyclone should approach the coast somewhere between Fraser Island and the Queensland-New South Wales border late tomorrow or Saturday morning.

"The cyclone is quite weak at the moment, just a weak category one and there is a possibility that it could weaken further," he said.

"It will pack a bit of a punch as it approaches the south coast, so it still needs to be monitored quite closely."

Mr Hall says gale-force winds are likely to develop along the coast as the cyclone approaches.

www.abc.net.au


Yay, Wind! Better than that heatwave they're experiencing down south!

I just heard on the radio that it was 650Km east of Hervey Bay!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Looks like it might hit Cooloola or Sunshine Coasts

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 1130 EST on Friday the 14th of January 2005

Tropical cyclone Kerry overnight weakened into a tropical low with central
pressure 995 hPa. A small area of gales still exists south of its centre due to
the pressure gradient between the centre of the low and a large high near New
Zealand.

At 10am, ex-tropical cyclone Kerry was located near latitude 24.8S and longitude
158.5E, about 570 kilometres east of Hervey Bay, and was moving west southwest
at 10 km/hr.

The remnants of Kerry are expected to continue to move south west and be
approximately 120km east of Cape Moreton on Saturday night. A gale warning has
been issued for coastal waters between Double Island Point and the New South
Wales border. Dangerous surf conditions are possible along the coast south from
Sandy Cape over the weekend.

This will be the final information bulletin for ex-tropical cyclone Kerry. The
low will continue to be monitored and should it reintensify, appropriate
warnings will be issued.

It dead, Dormant, gone, This thread will shut, after it hits the coast.

its probably not even gonna hit the coast. Its supposed to get about 60 miles of Brisbane and then head south.

so close, but so far

^
We might get some rain out of it though.

Okay, cyclon kerry collapsed with only minimal impacts on the state (a bit of wind, a bit less rain) but there is now another one: Cyclone Harvey. Category 3 near the Qld/NT border. It will probably make landfall soon.

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65001.gif?1107742154515