The Mad Hatter!!
January 21st, 2005, 12:20 AM
Could defector be Democrats' Florida savior?
Manny Diaz for governor in 2006?
''I've heard that talk,'' said Adrienne Arsht, the chairman of TotalBank and a friend of the Miami mayor. ``His name is being thrown around. I can't tell you by who, but I've heard it.''
It could just be the kind of ego-boosting gossip that the mayor's friends love to spread -- and that the mayor loves to hear. But it is also not entirely far-fetched.
The Democratic Party in Florida has taken a pounding in recent years, and there is no clear front-runner for the 2006 nomination. The most likely candidates are U.S. Rep. Jim Davis of Tampa, state Sen. Rod Smith of Gainesville, and Lawton ''Bud'' Chiles III, son of a former governor. Other possible contenders are Betty Castor, who ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate last year, and Scott Maddox, a former mayor of Tallahassee and the current chairman of the state Democratic Party.
Given the weak field, Diaz would be an appealing candidate for a party that needs to come up with a new formula for victory. Diaz's greatest strength would be his cross-over appeal to Cuban-American Republicans. If a Democrat can lure enough Cuban Americans to vote for him, he stands a far better chance of winning. If that sounds familiar, it's because it's the same theory that led Alex Penelas to run for the Senate.
''Manny has a very good résumé that is getting better every day,'' Arsht said. ``The city has never been stronger.''
Diaz is up for reelection as mayor. He is not expected to draw a serious opponent but nevertheless has begun to line up fundraisers. That early mayoral fundraising could give Diaz another advantage if he sets his sights on the governor's mansion. The unspent money he raises to run for mayor could easily be rolled over to finance the start of his run for governor.
Of course, there is one small problem for Diaz.
He's not a Democrat.
He used to be. In fact, he was a very active Democrat who helped a number of politicians around the state get elected, including U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson. But Diaz renounced his membership in the party and became an independent in 2000 following the government's seizure of Elián González.
Diaz was one of the lawyers for the Cuban boy's Miami relatives. He was very critical of Janet Reno, who was U.S. attorney general at the time, and the whole Clinton administration.
In 2002, Diaz endorsed Republican Jeb Bush for governor. And in 2004, he sat on the sidelines during the presidential race.
And so if Diaz should run for governor, the parallels between him and Penelas become all the more striking. Not only would Diaz have to explain his actions during the Elián affair, but he would also have to defend his Democratic credentials with party activists.
Losing, however, tends to make pragmatists out of ideologues, and this time around, the Democratic Party might be more forgiving of Diaz than it was of Penelas.
Epecially if the party thought Diaz was its best shot to win.
Diaz may also have another ally -- his old friend Bill Nelson.
As the only Democrat left holding statewide office, Nelson is being targeted by the Republicans when he's up for reelection in 2006. Nelson is going to have a difficult time holding on to his Senate seat.
Having Diaz on the same ballot would mean the two men could campaign together, and with Diaz's help, Nelson might be able to siphon off just enough Cuban-American votes to win.
None of the other potential Democratic candidates for governor help Nelson. They don't hurt him either. But they don't help him.
At least that's the theory.
Nelson's Senate office didn't respond to questions seeking comment.
For his part, Diaz was ruling nothing out. Asked if he was considering running for governor in two years, Diaz issued this statement: ``We have an agenda to finish and a reelection to focus on. 2006 is still far away.''
Manny Diaz for governor in 2006?
''I've heard that talk,'' said Adrienne Arsht, the chairman of TotalBank and a friend of the Miami mayor. ``His name is being thrown around. I can't tell you by who, but I've heard it.''
It could just be the kind of ego-boosting gossip that the mayor's friends love to spread -- and that the mayor loves to hear. But it is also not entirely far-fetched.
The Democratic Party in Florida has taken a pounding in recent years, and there is no clear front-runner for the 2006 nomination. The most likely candidates are U.S. Rep. Jim Davis of Tampa, state Sen. Rod Smith of Gainesville, and Lawton ''Bud'' Chiles III, son of a former governor. Other possible contenders are Betty Castor, who ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate last year, and Scott Maddox, a former mayor of Tallahassee and the current chairman of the state Democratic Party.
Given the weak field, Diaz would be an appealing candidate for a party that needs to come up with a new formula for victory. Diaz's greatest strength would be his cross-over appeal to Cuban-American Republicans. If a Democrat can lure enough Cuban Americans to vote for him, he stands a far better chance of winning. If that sounds familiar, it's because it's the same theory that led Alex Penelas to run for the Senate.
''Manny has a very good résumé that is getting better every day,'' Arsht said. ``The city has never been stronger.''
Diaz is up for reelection as mayor. He is not expected to draw a serious opponent but nevertheless has begun to line up fundraisers. That early mayoral fundraising could give Diaz another advantage if he sets his sights on the governor's mansion. The unspent money he raises to run for mayor could easily be rolled over to finance the start of his run for governor.
Of course, there is one small problem for Diaz.
He's not a Democrat.
He used to be. In fact, he was a very active Democrat who helped a number of politicians around the state get elected, including U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson. But Diaz renounced his membership in the party and became an independent in 2000 following the government's seizure of Elián González.
Diaz was one of the lawyers for the Cuban boy's Miami relatives. He was very critical of Janet Reno, who was U.S. attorney general at the time, and the whole Clinton administration.
In 2002, Diaz endorsed Republican Jeb Bush for governor. And in 2004, he sat on the sidelines during the presidential race.
And so if Diaz should run for governor, the parallels between him and Penelas become all the more striking. Not only would Diaz have to explain his actions during the Elián affair, but he would also have to defend his Democratic credentials with party activists.
Losing, however, tends to make pragmatists out of ideologues, and this time around, the Democratic Party might be more forgiving of Diaz than it was of Penelas.
Epecially if the party thought Diaz was its best shot to win.
Diaz may also have another ally -- his old friend Bill Nelson.
As the only Democrat left holding statewide office, Nelson is being targeted by the Republicans when he's up for reelection in 2006. Nelson is going to have a difficult time holding on to his Senate seat.
Having Diaz on the same ballot would mean the two men could campaign together, and with Diaz's help, Nelson might be able to siphon off just enough Cuban-American votes to win.
None of the other potential Democratic candidates for governor help Nelson. They don't hurt him either. But they don't help him.
At least that's the theory.
Nelson's Senate office didn't respond to questions seeking comment.
For his part, Diaz was ruling nothing out. Asked if he was considering running for governor in two years, Diaz issued this statement: ``We have an agenda to finish and a reelection to focus on. 2006 is still far away.''