Which one of these metros do you think will reach 1 million first?

what aretheir populations now?

None of them will reach that mark in the next three decades. More than half of them are going the wrong way...

what aretheir populations now?

None is as large as 750,000, and four or five of them are shrinking...

Ill say Wichita.

^ Probably the safest bet, but it's got a ways to go...

Its easy to look at growth rates today and project forward. But doesn't anyone think that one of these metros (which aren't growing much now) will start booming in the near future?

Here is the 2000 population and the growth rate from 1990 to 2000. Wichita is the only one that grew at a rapid pace between 1990 and 2000. Lansing also saw a healthy growth rate.

Springfield, MA - 680,014 (+1.0%)
Toledo, OH - 659,188 (+0.8%)
Syracuse, NY - 650,154 (-1.5%)
Youngstown, OH - 602,964 (-1.7%)
Wichita, KS - 571,166 (+11.7%)
Scranton, PA - 560,625 (-2.5%)
Lansing, MI - 447,728 (+3.5%)

My guess is that it will be Wichita, KS or Toledo, OH.

The reason I say this is because Toledo may be close to taking Monroe County away from Detroit. If it is able to do so by the next census, that would put the metro population between 825,000 and 830,000 by 2010. However, if the high growth rate continues in Wichita, and the stagnant growth rates continue for the rest of the group, that one will begin to pass them over the next several decades.

But it doesn't really matter, as none of these metros will probably see 1 million before 2050.

I guess Wichita or Toledo look the closest, but not for a loooooooooooooooong time. Although I'm a W-B son.

Ft. Wayne

either springfield, Wichita, or toledo.

I pick Wichita becuase a whopping 11%, conpare to some in the negatives growth.

Here is the 2000 population and the growth rate from 1990 to 2000. Wichita is the only one that grew at a rapid pace between 1990 and 2000. Lansing also saw a healthy growth rate.

Springfield, MA - 680,014 (+1.0%)
Toledo, OH - 659,188 (+0.8%)
Syracuse, NY - 650,154 (-1.5%)
Youngstown, OH - 602,964 (-1.7%)
Wichita, KS - 571,166 (+11.7%)
Scranton, PA - 560,625 (-2.5%)
Lansing, MI - 447,728 (+3.5%)


That's old data. According to this website http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popm/

Springfield, MA's growth rate has increased
Toldeo's growth has slowed down
Syracuse is now growing at a decent rate
Youngstown's declined has sped up
Wichita is not growing as fast
Scranton's decline has lessened
Lansing's growth is about the same

I think Wichita has the best bet on this one.

Just wondering if anyone thinks one of these metros will be gobbled up by larger nearby metros?

Also, is anyone taking this into account?

-if one of these metros add a county or two (due to sprawl) after the next census, the metro could jump in population, maybe even get close to the million mark

Wichita is definately growing the most so that is what city I pick.

None of them....

^That's not an option. Barring the end of the world and natural (or otherwise) catastorphes in the cities that are growing, one of these will eventually reach a million. Which one? Personally, I think they are all too far away to accurately predict that far into the future.

Hah, yeah ok I guess I am just not informed enough on growth patterns in all of these cities on a metropolitan level to make an informed decision. I know a few of them arent doing so well, and I know a few are far to small and not in a prime for major growth of 500k people.

Austin is a prime example of how fast a metro can get to 1 million people.

In 1980 Austin's metro was only 585,000. In 1995, Austin's metro hit the 1 million mark.

http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popm/pm0640.htm

^ Indeed, but being a fairly new big city and a part of a high growth area put it in that position .... the above cities arent. So who can predict future trends....

This is the population by Cicero.
City Year Population % change Pop. Change
Wichita 2003 557,525 0.6 3,088
Youngstown 2003 584,968 -0.4 -2,565
Toledo 2003 619,682 0.1 387
Springfield 2003 616,291 0.6 3,565
Syracuse 2003 735,920 0.3 2,432
Scranton 2003 616,744 -0.2 -1,237
Lansing 2003 455,836 0.5 2,168
Since Springfield has the biggest increase and Syracuse currently the most, I say Springfield or Syracuse.

Witcha could surpass youngstown if this trend continues.

I think it will take a while for opne of them to reach 1 million, at the rate Wichita is growing at probably they will, eventually.....

Baton Rouge will be first before of all of those listed.

Of every city, the Tulsa MSA has 990,000 people according to some... I think Emporis has 900,000 though. Maybe it was Wikipedia that had tulsa as 990,000.

Anyway, Tulsa will undoubtedly reach that milemarker before any other city.

Of every city, the Tulsa MSA has 990,000 people according to some... I think Emporis has 900,000 though. Maybe it was Wikipedia that had tulsa as 990,000.

Anyway, Tulsa will undoubtedly reach that milemarker before any other city.

Not to be rude but Yes Tulsa May reach it before any other city but we are not talking about Tulsa(great city by the way) we are talking about Syracuse, Wichita, Youngstown, Lansing, ect...

IM not being rude just making a statement.

I would have to say Wichita. The pop. that some of you are showing on here is just of Sedgwick Co. And not all of the metro area. last i read and heard from people it was closer to 700,000. Also the city and metro are very aggressive in annexing new land to add to the pop. And most of the cities on this list dont. Also Wichita job force is becomeing more and more diverse. And with all the aircraft companies and the airforce base there, it will always be expanding. And all of the cities on this list (which i have spent alot of time in and studing all) are dieing cities or cities that are to close to larger metro areas so they seem to lose out. Wichita is aleast 2 to 3 hours away from any other city of comparable size or bigger. Also Wichita and Lansing are the only two cities on here that have a growing culture scene. Which i fill helps cities grow.

I would have to say Wichita. The pop. that some of you are showing on here is just of Sedgwick Co. And not all of the metro area. last i read and heard from people it was closer to 700,000. Also the city and metro are very aggressive in annexing new land to add to the pop. And most of the cities on this list dont. Also Wichita job force is becomeing more and more diverse. And with all the aircraft companies and the airforce base there, it will always be expanding. And all of the cities on this list (which i have spent alot of time in and studing all) are dieing cities or cities that are to close to larger metro areas so they seem to lose out. Wichita is aleast 2 to 3 hours away from any other city of comparable size or bigger. Also Wichita and Lansing are the only two cities on here that have a growing culture scene. Which i fill helps cities grow.

Syracuse has a growing cultural scene.

Syracuse Symphony http://www.syracusesymphony.org/index_fla.html
Syracuse Vocal Ensemble http://www.syracusevocalensemble.org/sve/
Syracuse Opera http://www.syracuseopera.com/
Performing Arts Center http://www.saltcitycenter.com/
Syracuse Stage http://www.syracusestage.org/
Everson Musuem http://www.everson.org/
ThINC http://www.thinc.org/
The Redhouse http://www.greatkreations.com/redhouse/
Syracuse International Film & Video Festival
http://www.syrfilmfest.com/

http://www.syracusearts.net/default.cfm
http://www.gottheaterproject.com/
http://www.cspot.org/
http://www.cnymusic.com/fest.htm

Also, check out Armory Square: http://www.armorysquare.com/

Just some of the events held each year in Syracuse


CNY Scottish/Celtic Fest http://www.cnyscots.com/frame.html
Festa Italiana http://www.festaitaliana.bizland.com/festa.html
Harborfest http://www.oswegoharborfest.com/
Irish Fest http://www.syracuseirishfestival.com/
Greek Fest http://www.greekfestivals.com/East/Syracuse/syracuse.html
Polish Festival
Juneteenth
Apple Festival http://www.lafayetteapplefest.org/
Balloon Fest http://www.ongov.net/parks/balloonfest/index.html
NY State Fair http://www.nysfair.org/2003/
Arts and Crafts Fest http://www.artmakers.com/syracuse.html
Airshow http://www.syrairport.org/about/AAEF/
Syracuse Nationals http://www.rightcoastcars.com/sn/
Taste of Syracuse http://www.tasteofsyracuse.com/
Winterfest http://www.syracusewinterfest.com/old/index.php
First Night http://www.firstnightsyracuse.com/
Dicken's Christmas http://skaneateles.com/dickens.shtml
Jazz Fest http://www.syracusejazzfest.com/
Islandfest http://island-fest.com/
JPMorgan Chase Corporate Challenge http://www.jpmorganchasecc.com/
Jazz in the Square http://www.jazzinthesquare.org/
Syracuse Latino Festival http://www.rmpromotions.net/quepasa.html
Octoberfest http://www.aviso.net/dir/usa/german/events/oktoberfest.htm
New York State Blues Festival http://www.nysbluesfest.com/
Syracuse Jewish Festival http://www.syracusejewishfestival.com/



Just wanted to clear that up.

Toledo and Whichita

Here is the 2000 population and the growth rate from 1990 to 2000. Wichita is the only one that grew at a rapid pace between 1990 and 2000. Lansing also saw a healthy growth rate.

Springfield, MA - 680,014 (+1.0%)
Toledo, OH - 659,188 (+0.8%)
Syracuse, NY - 650,154 (-1.5%)
Youngstown, OH - 602,964 (-1.7%)
Wichita, KS - 571,166 (+11.7%)
Scranton, PA - 560,625 (-2.5%)
Lansing, MI - 447,728 (+3.5%)

My guess is that it will be Wichita, KS or Toledo, OH.

The reason I say this is because Toledo may be close to taking Monroe County away from Detroit. If it is able to do so by the next census, that would put the metro population between 825,000 and 830,000 by 2010. However, if the high growth rate continues in Wichita, and the stagnant growth rates continue for the rest of the group, that one will begin to pass them over the next several decades.

But it doesn't really matter, as none of these metros will probably see 1 million before 2050.

I agree with the comment in regards to Toledo taking Monroe County from Detroit. Most of the folks who lives in Monroe County works, shop, and play in Toledo. Michigan is known for low property taxes that is contributing to the growth of that county. Also people are getting away from one of the most sprawling metro in US which is Motown itself.

Not to be rude but Yes Tulsa May reach it before any other city but we are not talking about Tulsa(great city by the way) we are talking about Syracuse, Wichita, Youngstown, Lansing, ect...

IM not being rude just making a statement.

Not to be rude also---but Tulsa is not part of the poll. So keep on worshipping to your lifetime mayor Oral Roberts. LOL!
:righton:

I agree with the comment in regards to Toledo taking Monroe County from Detroit. Most of the folks who lives in Monroe County works, shop, and play in Toledo. Michigan is known for low property taxes that is contributing to the growth of that county. Also people are getting away from one of the most sprawling metro in US which is Motown itself.

It's not quite at that point yet. In total about 20% of the county commutes to the Detroit MSA and another 20% of the county commutes to the Toledo MSA. Most of the Detroit commuters come from the northern portion of the county while the majorty of the Toledo commuters comes from the southern portion of the county. So it could technically go either way at this point.

Wichita is a very healthy city. The aviation industry will guarantee good growth rates into the future.