Next Merging Southeastern MSAs?

[MattSal]

I've noticed how much you people bitch about theses made up mergers between metropolitan areas, so I've decided to ask you this:

What two (or more) metro areas in the Southeast will merge before all others.

There, now you can make up as many as you like.

[MattSal]

My choice goes to Atlanta and Athens. I think they'll merge within the next 5 or 10 years, 15 years at the latest.

[jmancuso]

people say austin and san antonio but i don't see that happening anytime soon.

[texasboy]

people say austin and san antonio but i don't see that happening anytime soon.

thank you. lol. i thought i was the only one who thought that.

[MattSal]

What about Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, are they merged yet?

[ralex231]

i think the triangle and the triad will within 15 years

[teshadoh]

Matt - you have been inquisitive! ;)

Atlanta & Athens will likely become a consolidated metro - but not a merged metro. Greenville & Spartanburg will likely become a consolidated metro again. I don't see any reason Tuscaloosa & Birmingham will be merged, if any Alabama metro is merged it will be Decatur & Huntsville first or even Mobile & Gulfport MS.

[MattSal]

^Sorry for the confusion. I didn't specificly mean MSAs. CMSAs or whatever will do just fine.

@ralex231: What is the triangle and the triad?

[louisianacharm]

new orleans-baton rouge

[Sean in New Orleans]

new orleans-baton rouge
They've already merged with the technical metropolitan areas established by the census bureau already next to each other and intermingling. So, according to this threads topic, New Orleans-Baton Rouge doesn't apply. It's already happened with commuters in several parishes next to each other with the MSA's commuting to either one of these cities.

[romec]

^Sorry for the confusion. I didn't specificly mean MSAs. CMSAs or whatever will do just fine.

@ralex231: What is the triangle and the triad?

Triangle = Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill and Cary
Triad = Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point

[nostyle]

I seriously doubt the triangle and triad will merge within the next 15 years. Those metros are still a 1.5-2 hour drive apart.

[atlrvr]

Charlotte and Columbia??????

[atlrvr]

Though granted......places like the Greensboro-Kernersville and GSP will remerge first.

[teshadoh]

Charlotte and Columbia??????

Heh, yeah - the Catawba River Valley is the modern day Golden Crescent of the ancient past! Winnsboro, Lancaster & Chester are absolutely busting at the seams! ;)

[Skanky the Boricuo]

Not to sound like a bitch, but i've always wondered why southerners (on this forum at least) are seemingly so obsessed with "merging metros". I mean, I know its exciting to some people to see population figures increase by whatever means, but all a "merging metro" is in the south is multiple cities connecting by a thin strip of disgusting, destructive, and irresponsible sprawl. It is typically not anything to be proud of. Just wondering.

[texasboy]

Not to sound like a bitch, but i've always wondered why southerners (on this forum at least) are seemingly so obsessed with "merging metros". I mean, I know its exciting to some people to see population figures increase by whatever means, but all a "merging metro" is in the south is multiple cities connecting by a thin strip of disgusting, destructive, and irresponsible sprawl. It is typically not anything to be proud of. Just wondering.


you're not alone. and if i see another thread on your favorite freeways in the south. :bleep:

[teshadoh]

Not to sound like a bitch, but i've always wondered why southerners (on this forum at least) are seemingly so obsessed with "merging metros". I mean, I know its exciting to some people to see population figures increase by whatever means, but all a "merging metro" is in the south is multiple cities connecting by a thin strip of disgusting, destructive, and irresponsible sprawl. It is typically not anything to be proud of. Just wondering.

Well, you are a bitch. NO really - I keed I keed.

I don't know why - metro populations are an over inflated representation of overall small & relatively insignificant urban areas. Atlanta has nearly 5 million? Charlotte has nearly 2 million? Obviously the next dramatic step would be simply adding metro areas to other ones, though they are often connected by not 'sprawl' but an invisibile land pattern called exurbia. It's like radon, many people live with it but don't know what it is - & what destruction it can cause.

But I have more & more grown weary of metro populations, they are only a collection of counties that share similar commuting patterns.

[sleepy]

They've already merged with the technical metropolitan areas established by the census bureau already next to each other and intermingling. So, according to this threads topic, New Orleans-Baton Rouge doesn't apply. It's already happened with commuters in several parishes next to each other with the MSA's commuting to either one of these cities.

Those two metro areas have been geographically adjacent to each other for decades since Ascension Parish (Baton Rouge) and St. John Parish (New Orleans) were added to the respective msa's--at least as far back as the 1980 census.

While at some point, it's conceivable that the two metros might meet the Census commuting standards for a CSA, they'll never be merged into one metro.

[Jasonhouse]

Ft Myers/Naples might be an option. I don't really know.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Those two metro areas have been geographically adjacent to each other for decades since Ascension Parish (Baton Rouge) and St. John Parish (New Orleans) were added to the respective msa's--at least as far back as the 1980 census.

While at some point, it's conceivable that the two metros might meet the Census commuting standards for a CSA, they'll never be merged into one metro.
Maybe..but, never? I tend to agree, though. The two cities are very different in attitudes---New Orleans is much, much more liberal. The census bureau could easily recognize this as a CSA in a couple of decades, but, there will always be "A" New Orleans and "A" Baton Rouge.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Not to sound like a bitch, but i've always wondered why southerners (on this forum at least) are seemingly so obsessed with "merging metros". I mean, I know its exciting to some people to see population figures increase by whatever means, but all a "merging metro" is in the south is multiple cities connecting by a thin strip of disgusting, destructive, and irresponsible sprawl. It is typically not anything to be proud of. Just wondering.
I don't know if I would call it an obsession, but, honestly, there is no other place in the US that is growing fast enough for metro areas to merge in the United States. The West is growing, but, things are spread out in the West. I find it interesting, but, I certainly haven't lost any sleep on the matter that I recall...

[unusualfire]

Tampa-Sarasota

[marathon]

Springfield-Fayetteville-Springdale-Joplin-Rogers-Bentonville-Branson-Carthage-Webb City-Kimberling City-Miami-Pittsburg, MO-AR-OK-KS

:)

[JPKneworleans]

With respect to New Orleans.... St. James Parish is no longer part of the MSA as a result of the change in communiting percentages determined by Office of Management and Budget. Thus, St. James is rural, and the BR and NO MSAs are separate by that one parish.

[Atlman1]

I think Atlanta and Columbus will merge soon. Columbus is pushing north and Atlanta is pushing south along I-85. Columbus's metro, Harris County, touches Troup County (LaGrange) and Meriwether County which is in Atlanta's metro area.

[krazeeboi]

As has already been mentioned, Greenville and Spartanburg I believe will again be one MSA (or at least a CSA) by the next census.

[ScraperDude]

Question... how much distance between cities/towns/subdivisions does it have to be to not consider them running into each other......or merging areas
Example: Charlotte-Gastonia-Bessemer City two mile gap between city limits Kings Mountain-6 miles then Shelby city limit- roughly 5 miles Boiling Springs city limit 2 miles Mooresboro City limit then 15 miles Forest City which is 65 driving miles from uptown Charlotte. Forest City is roughly 20 miles north of Spartanburg sc which runs into Greer then Greenville. How far does a city need to be disconnected to not be counted?

[SChristopher]

In terms of reality, when you have a city like that with an inflated number it seems very small town to me.

Most of these cities even when connected with sprawl still are very defined and you can tell that you are in a different city. North Carolina is odd to me because they have these cities so close together so it is really strange to figure. Triads and Triangles and whatnot....at 1.5 million or whatever for some of them, they definately dont 'feel' that way.

Anyways doesnt it all have to do with commuting patterns?

[teshadoh]

^ Schristopher nailed it - it is commuting patterns.

Gastonia is it's own urban area, as Forrest City is an urban cluster. But depending on commuting patterns they may join a metro area. In Gastonia's case, because it also serves as an economic center on it's own right - essentially it could be a metro on it's own - it shares the metro with Charlotte.

So be sure not to assume metro areas are dependant on urbanity - it is primarily commuting patterns (which is kind of lame).



Atlman1 - I can almost promise you that Columbus & Atlanta will never enter a merged metro. Perhaps in 50+ years it will be in a consolidated metro, but Columbus will have to go really downhill to lose it's economic influence & become a suburb of Atlanta.

[ScraperDude]

I used to Commute from Forest City into Uptown Also friends and neighbors some would commute to Spartanburg and Greenville some were like me commuting into Mecklenburg and Gaston counties same goes for people I know in Shelby some would go toward Charlotte some toward GSP. So yea I guess commuting patterns does have a factor in it.

[rocket9561]

Nashville/Murfreesboro and Clarksville/Hopkinsville

[Atlman1]

^ Schristopher nailed it - it is commuting patterns.

Atlman1 - I can almost promise you that Columbus & Atlanta will never enter a merged metro. Perhaps in 50+ years it will be in a consolidated metro, but Columbus will have to go really downhill to lose it's economic influence & become a suburb of Atlanta.

I'm not saying Columbus will be a suburb of Atlanta. I am just saying the two cities metros will one day come together. There is no way in hell Columbus would ever become a suburb of Atlanta, if it did it would be one hell of a big suburb. All I am saying is that the two metros will eventually overlap each other.

[teshadoh]

I'm not saying Columbus will be a suburb of Atlanta. I am just saying the two cities metros will one day come together. There is no way in hell Columbus would ever become a suburb of Atlanta, if it did it would be one hell of a big suburb. All I am saying is that the two metros will eventually overlap each other.

Because a metro is based on a primary city that serves as the commuting center. Therefore if Columbus & Atlanta merged into a single msa - then that would require a percentage of Columbus residents commuting to Atlanta's urban area. Otherwise, your hypothesis of Atlanta's urban area overlapping with Columbus's urban area is a bit of a stretch. Actually an incredibly long & sprawling low dense stretch.

Again - there is no way it will occur in at least 50 years. And if it does by then - I certainly wouldn't want to live here, because that would make Atlanta an urban area greater than 10 million of the most lowest dense developments on Earth. I seriously would suggest if you care about Columbus, as I care about Atlanta - that the urban areas don't grow at that fast of a pace.

[raqoff25]

How about this one... A triangle merger... Louisville, KY, Lexington, KY, and Cinicinnati, OH/Northern KY??? That would be one big ass merged city... but it will never happen, it would be cool though. Lexington is 70 miles from Louisville, and only 88 miles from Cincy. Louisville is about 90 miles from Cincy. If all three of these combined they'd have a population of over 3 million.. pretty cool

[Blazer85]

Birmingham-Hoover is our MSA right now... I COULD see Cullman being added to our MSA, and having Tuscaloosa added to the MSA eventually is not that far fetched at all. In fact, I think Tuscaloosa is pretty close to being included in our MSA now.

[SChristopher]

^ I always thought that was pretty probable.

[ttownfeen]

Tuscaloosa and Birmingham for being so close geographically are still two completely seperate areas. The number of people who commute from Tuscaloosa to Jefferson County and vice-versa is still in the single digits, far from the 25% threshold it takes to be added into a MSA (or is it 50%; I can't remember). It's possible in teh future the two MSA maybe made into a CMSA, but there won't be a Birmingham-Tuscaloosa-Hoover MSA anytime soon.

[teshadoh]

Tuscaloosa and Birmingham for being so close geographically are still two completely seperate areas. The number of people who commute from Tuscaloosa to Jefferson County and vice-versa is still in the single digits, far from the 25% threshold it takes to be added into a MSA (or is it 50%; I can't remember). It's possible in teh future the two MSA maybe made into a CMSA, but there won't be a Birmingham-Tuscaloosa-Hoover MSA anytime soon.

Actually it might be 15%, nonetheless I agree - as I've said for most 'examples' stated in this thread - consolidated is the only possibility.

[ralex231]

I seriously doubt the triangle and triad will merge within the next 15 years. Those metros are still a 1.5-2 hour drive apart.



saying that raleigh-durham are 30 miles seperate and durham is at the most a 40 minute drive to reachinggreensboro i think you are mistaken maybe within the next 15 years is jumping the gun a bit but most likely within 20

[SChristopher]

I would hope that wouldnt happen if I were you :-/

[ironchapman]

i think the triangle and the triad will within 15 years
It shall be come the NC Hexagon!

[cityguy610]

It shall be come the NC Hexagon!

HAHA,Thats a good one.

[gwiATLeman]

It seems that some of us are confusing some of the terminology

Here is the definition from the census


MSA / Metro Area

The general concept of a metropolitan statistical area is that of a core area containing a substantial population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high degree of economic and social integration with that core. Outlying counties are defined as those with at least 25% of its employed residents commuting to the core or at least 25% of its employment residing in the core.


CMSA / Conslidated Metros

MSAs that have an employment interchange measure of at least 15 and less than 25 will combine if local opinion favors combination.

When you say merge it implies that they would become a single MSA.

[Atlman1]

Anyone know when Columbus and Auburn/Opelika will become one MSA or CMSA? I am suprised they haven't already. Both cities feed off of each other. Anyone from that area would already say that the cities are basically one large metro.

[Pensacane]

Since we are talking CSMA, SMA or what have you, I put my biased vote for a new metro area for Mobile/Pensacola/Fort Walton Beach. Area has a good population and plenty of land in between the three cities for more growth. According to the Census estimates for 2004, these are the stats for the 5 counties from west in Alabama to the east well into Florida.

July 2004:
Mobile County AL: 400,526
Baldwin County AL: 156,701
Escambia Co. FL: 298,859
Santa Rosa Co. FL: 138,276
Okaloosa Co. FL: 181,460

Grand Total--------1,175,822

Baldwin and Santa Rosa are more rural than the other three but are among the fastest growing. Mobile has the cruise terminal and cargo expansion not to mention the RSA (??) tower. Pensacola has/ will have a lot going on with downtown construction and tourism and is recovering from the hurricane that is, in the long-run, will spur a construction boom and revitalize some areas. FWB faired better in the BRAC commision than Pensacola and will continue to grow from the military increase as well as from tourism and contractor/research firms that have sprung around the base. I think things may get interesting in this area within 10 years.

[hokiehigh]

I've read where Richmond and DC/Northern Virginia are closing in on one another. I think there is only one county between them without an abundance of construction.

[Pensacane]

^^ That sounds more like an extension of the Bos-Wash megalopolis to me, but you are correct. It will link up.

http://mcdc2.missouri.edu/webrepts/geography/metropops04.pdf

Question: From the above link is where I found the 2004 estimates but I am confused as to why and how they assign certain cities as a metro area. For example, go to Miami and it will give you Miami/Ft. Lauderdal/W Palm Beach at 5.3 million yet Winston-Salem is not joined with Greensboro nor is Raleigh married to Durham which I see accounted for all the time.

http://www.demographia.com/db-usmet2000.htm

...and yet on this link WPB is separate from Miami/Ft. Lauderdale but Winson Salem and Greensboro as well as High Point are grouped as they should. I don't get it. I used to live in Warner Robins GA and the first link puts it as a separate stat. artea from Macon which I think is silly because the two cities are right next to each other. Very strange to me. :dunno:

[teshadoh]

Depends on which metropolitan area definitions are being referenced. Demographica hasn't updated theirs, which the previous definition wasn't too strict regarding MSA's. But if you know the area & can view maps indicating Urban Area boundaries, Miami & Ft Lauderdale are in the process of merging, they are physically adjacent to each other. That is not the case yet for the NC cities mentioned. Otherwise, commuting patterns dictate MSA definitions.

But what is wrong with giving primary cities an independant face rather than being group into a faceless metro area with no center?

[Lakelander]

Miami and Fort Lauderdale merged about 20 to 30 years ago. There's no vacant land left between the two. Once you hit West Palm Beach, its straight city for over 70 miles, all the way down to Homestead.

[texasboy]

Miami and Fort Lauderdale merged about 20 to 30 years ago. There's no vacant land left between the two. Once you hit West Palm Beach, its straight city for over 70 miles, all the way down to Homestead.

I was about to say the same thing. Unless you are referring to something else, Ft Lauderdale and cities even pass FTL have already merged together. Its like saying Santa Monica is about to merge with LA.

[teshadoh]

My apologies, you are right - the urban area boundary for Miami & Ft Lauderdale merged as of 2000, as in 1990 they were still seperate though adjacent.

But you still get my point, by 'merging' I insinuate they are at the state of a merge, whereas it is not the case for the NC cities mentioned. In fact - I wouldn't expect Raleigh, Durham, Winston Salem or Greensboro to have any merged urban areas in at least 30 years.

[JRQ]

The Triad, as an MSA, and the Triangle as an MSA will probably merge around the 20 year mark, which is very unfortuante. For this to even be suggested is a pretty scary thought, imo, much less it becoming a reality. If you really consider the time and distance of the two places, and then think about them merging? Not very good.
If Burlington continues to grow, it will probably be the belt-buckle bewteen the two.

[Pensacane]

Actually, I was referring to the NC cities as 2 distinct areas. One being W-S/Greensboro and the second Raleigh/Durham. Two distinct MSAs IMO that should be considered metro areas instead of giving the data for just Durham or just Raleigh and separating W-Salem and Greensboro. I have seen them grouped more often than not which seeing them separated really threw me. I remeber one edition of Information Please Almanac that listed the two metro areas as I stated above.

[krazeeboi]

Yeah, the more recent MSA definitions split the Triad and Triangle, as well as Greenville, SC from Spartanburg. But it is probable that by the time the next census rolls around in 5 years, GSO-W/S-HP, RDU-Cary-Chapel Hill, and GSP will each again be designated as one metro.

[Viper]

Tampa-Sarasota and possibly even Orlampa....Orlando-Tampa. At least the inclusion of the Lakeland area.

[teshadoh]

^ Nope - not likely to happen until everyone is commuting in maglev trains or either Orlando or Tampa turns into an economic ghost town.

But if you are thinking of CSA - possibly in 50 years.

Lakeland - Winter Haven is an interesting dilemna though, they could go either way but I would think they will likely be included in Orlando's CSA before Tampa's.

[urbanaturalist]

Brad......I agree........even if some of these separate cities and metros converge......without uber efficiency in transportation and of course smart growth its just one big polluted traffic jam. Charlotte converging with Greenville-Spartansburg is good one.

[krazeeboi]

Greenville and Spartanburg haven't even "merged" yet, much less Charlotte all the way to Greenville. You've got to have development in the mostly rural counties of Gaston, Cleveland, and Cherokee before you even have some sense of urbanity in Spartanburg--and even then, it's not really present in that area of the county that I-85 passes through.

[teshadoh]

Sometimes - as southerners - our attitudes of a developed environment is a bit laughable. We often assume a mix of subdivisions spread out in a rural area is an indication that it is 'built up'. That is the case between even Greenville & Spartanburg - which is very close, but it requires consistantly more than 500 people per square mile

[weill]

maybe lynchburg, roanoke, and blacksburg

[lammius]

maybe lynchburg, roanoke, and blacksburg

There's a lot of undeveloped land between those places, not to mention mountains.

I think all this talk of merging metros is trumped up. There are many MSAs that border one another due to the way county lines are drawn. That doesn't necessarily mean that somewhat dense development has extended to the bounds and is bleeding over with commuters traveling from one to the other every day. Like someone said before. Our definition of what is "metro" is sometimes quite laughable.

http://www.bls.gov/lau/maps/uscbsa00.gif

^ How many years will it be before all of those counties are colored in and the entire U.S. merges into one (C)MSA?

[krazeeboi]

Wow. Cali is INSANE.

[gwiATLeman]

There's a lot of undeveloped land between those places, not to mention mountains.

I think all this talk of merging metros is trumped up. There are many MSAs that border one another due to the way county lines are drawn. That doesn't necessarily mean that somewhat dense development has extended to the bounds and is bleeding over with commuters traveling from one to the other every day. Like someone said before. Our definition of what is "metro" is sometimes quite laughable.



Agreed. People too often get the idea that because two metro are adjacent to one another that they'll eventually become one metro. Given the way the counties are used to define metro's, more often than not its not likely to happen.

[Chris121091]

What about atlanta and Macon. I know commuters from Macon.

[unusualfire]

http://ftp2.census.gov/geo/maps/metroarea/us_wall/Dec2003/cbsa_us_1203_large.gif

[teshadoh]

What about atlanta and Macon. I know commuters from Macon.

Not remotely close - based on MSA & CSA definitions, not even close to consideration. The closest would be an Atlanta - Athens CSA.

[iamnorthcarolina]

In NC there will be many merges of metro and micro areas. A few that are just shy of contention are (Lexington-Thomasville with either W-S or Gboro)(Lincolnton with Hickory, though many would say Lincolnton would goto Charlotte)(Greenville will definately pick-up Washington and maybe even Kinston)(and finally but most assured is Burlington with Greensboro as the growth between the two is beginning to skyrocket). Outside NC, Greenville, SC and Anderson is likely and Atlanta-Athens is likely. Richmond will not combine into DC because in no place has core cities 90-100 miles apart combined. There is still a great distance between the two.

[prwfromnc]

I say that I-77 from Statesville to Rock Hill will eventually merge together as well as I-85 from Salisbury to Gastonia. I will say that in 20 years, that the Charlotte Metro Region will probably be as humongous as the Atlanta and Miami Metro Regions. The reason I say this is because of the fact that in the 2000 census, that both Statesville and Salisbury were not included in Charlotte's MSA. I don't know how the CSA's and MSA's are calculated, but at least when I think of Salisbury, I automatically think of it as being a part of the Charlotte Metro.