Earth’s gravity may lure deadly asteroid
By Nigel Hawkes

A huge asteroid which is on a course to miss the Earth by a whisker in 2029 could go round its orbit again and score a direct hit a few years later.

Astronomers have calculated that the 1,000ft-wide asteroid called 2004 MN4 will pass by the Earth at a distance of between 15,000 and 25,000 miles — about a tenth of the distance between the Earth and the Moon and close enough to be seen with the naked eye.

Although they are sure that it will miss us, they are worried about the disturbance that such a close pass will give to the asteroid’s orbit. It might put 2004 MN4 on course for a collision in 2034 or a year or two later: the unpredictability of its behaviour means that the danger might not become apparent until it is too late.

As a safety precaution, some experts are calling for 2004 MN4 to be “tagged” with a transponder that would constantly radio its position. Scientists hope that this would provide enough warning to allow emergency action if necessary, possibly by diverting the object away from the Earth. Other instruments on the probe could provide information about its composition.

Benny Peiser, from Liverpool John Moores University, who is an expert on asteroid hazards, said: “We don’t know what that asteroid is made of and that might influence the way it’s affected by the Earth’s gravitational pull. There are other close approaches, in 2034 and 2035. In all likelihood it will produce an orbit that will not intercept the Earth, but we don’t know.”

The asteroid is big enough to cause damage on a regional scale, with an expected impact equivalent to a 1,000-megatonne explosion. It was discovered last June and its orbit plotted in detail by December. Startled astronomers calculated at one point that its chances of a direct hit on Friday, April 13, 2029, were 1 in 38. But additional calculations have set those fears to rest.

The asteroid is now expected to miss, but come close enough to be below the altitude of TV satellites. It should be visible as a rapidly moving point of light.

Brian Marsden, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, expects the close encounter to increase the frequency of the asteroid’s orbit, creating the possibility of further close encounters every five to nine years.

An interceptor mission is feasible and Dr Peiser said that an opportunity would arise in 2012, when 2004 MN4 will be ten million miles from Earth. “That’s not a big distance as far as space missions go,” he said.

“This is most likely not the object with our number on it, but one day we will have to address this question and we’ll need the technology. A transponder mission should not be too complicated or costly, and would provide a lot of vital data.”



http://tinypic.com/4izqch



http://tinypic.com/4izrs4

Cheeky little shit...

A thousand megaton equivalent impact. Thats not a small number. Course - it'd probably come down in water, and that would produce a tsunami that would make the recent Indian ocean tsunami look like a ripple in a duck pond. Nasty.

Where is Superman when you need him?

http://tinypic.com/4j0389

We'll just have to send Bruce Willis, Ben Affleck and that weasel-like actor up there in a space shuttle so Bruce Willis can be a hero and nuke the thing whilst we all sing "I don't want to miss a thing".

What'd this do if it hit land? What sort of devastation could we expect?

Probably a crater ten miles wide, massive earthquakes, a disruption of the earth's mantle causing increased seismic and volcanic activity, a huge dust cloud that will cover the entire planet and block the sun for a few years causinf the extinction of many species and almost all plant forms due to the cold and lack of light.

Cool.

What'd this do if it hit land? What sort of devastation could we expect?
Tens of millions of casualties probably, and a few cities wiped off the map.

The impact would be around 1,000 megatons. By comparison, the largest nuclear weapon ever tested had a yield of 50 megatons.

Probably a crater ten miles wide, massive earthquakes, a disruption of the earth's mantle causing increased seismic and volcanic activity, a huge dust cloud that will cover the entire planet and block the sun for a few years causinf the extinction of many species and almost all plant forms due to the cold and lack of light.

Cool.
Not quite. :) This asteroid is relatively small compared to the "dinosaur killer" of 65 million years ago. That one is thought to have measured 10-15km and its impact energy was over 100,000,000 megatons ...

So we have too much gravity?

Isn't this the fourteenth warning of some impending asteroid - probably with affiliations to Bin-Laden - coming to get us.

Remember only Charles Clarke and ID Cards can save the world now.

Pretty scary. Although we've heard these sorts of rumours before and I doubt anything will come of it. If it was on course to hit earth how would we stop it, or could we?

Pretty scary. Although we've heard these sorts of rumours before and I doubt anything will come of it. If it was on course to hit earth how would we stop it, or could we?

send somebody out to stick a rocket on it and shove it onto a different trajectory. Nasa have been fiddling with a new fuel tank for the space shuttle so we should have that back in service next year. Obviously this threat is a little bit further out, although I have a feeling that even with ample warning we'd end up having to bodge together something at the last minute..

Not quite. :) This asteroid is relatively small compared to the "dinosaur killer" of 65 million years ago. That one is thought to have measured 10-15km and its impact energy was over 100,000,000 megatons ...

It's impact devastation would largely depend on it's density and elemental make up as well as size, if it's a big lump of pure iron were in a bit of a mess. ;)

thing is tho, a big asteroid impact is a certainty and will happen again - it's only a matter of time.

I still advocate that getting our arses off this rock would better prepare us to both respond to incoming threats and also survive threats we couldn't remove.

don't forget as well if it does hit with enough of a force it can also affect our orbit which could have untold ecological disasters

It would need to be fucking huge to affect the earth's orbit enought to change the climate!!

it's only a matter of time.

You make it sound like your waiting for a train. Yes it is a matter of time, but that time is several million years. The only reason we keep getting these stupid asteroid stories is because of very recent advances in technology, allow for us to track all these "near miss" asteroids, which have been going around and not hitting us for as long as the human race has existed.

why? even a tilt of the axis of about half a degree is enough to cause an ice age! a change in the orbit could bring about complete disaster

Well atleast we know that in 5 billion years time the National Trust will own earth and it will be eaten by the sun. So says....Dr Who.

Nasa have been fiddling with a new fuel tank for the space shuttle so we should have that back in service next year

Actually those tests have been for a shuttle launch which is scheduled for next month!

by 2034, we'll all be living on jupiter anyway. or dead.

for some perspective, a 1 megaton bomb would do this: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/bomb/sfeature/1mtblast.html

It's Deep Impact all over again...

...maybe it's a way with nature starting from scratch. It can shake us with tsunamis so it calls it's mate from space to hurl a giant pebble at us to finish us off entirely.

Do you think the Earth will rid of us one day? Entirely? Or will humankind be doomed to destroy itself?

That had better not happen. I am just going to be done finishing up paying my school debts by then.!!!! >(

Do you think the Earth will rid of us one day? Entirely? Or will humankind be doomed to destroy itself?

We are the Earth.

why? even a tilt of the axis of about half a degree is enough to cause an ice age! a change in the orbit could bring about complete disaster

No doubt it would, my sympathies are with whatever is on the earth in a few million years.

Remember only Charles Clarke and ID Cards can save the world now.

:laugh: you're in good form at the moment Lostboy.

That had better not happen. I am just going to be done finishing up paying my school debts by then.!!!! >(

http://img32.echo.cx/img32/953/donqui16yp.jpg

nice use of colour medo, that astroid actually looks like it's glowing.

Is this the first work of your monkeys.

Is this the first work of your monkeys.

Indeed it is :lol: they sure learn fast!

nuke the mo'fucker!

a 150 foot wide (~46m) meteorite made this crater in arizona which is about a mile (~1.6km) in diameter.

http://www.phototripusa.com/images/wiewandt/4-meteor-crater.jpg

blimey, rather not have something that big in my back yard.

why? even a tilt of the axis of about half a degree is enough to cause an ice age!

I find that very hard to believe given how much the Earth's axis wobbles at the moment. There are a number of monuments in Korea marking the Tropic of Capricorn built about every decade, which are several minutes of latitude apart because the Earth's inclination has changed. Wish I could find the web page as it's quite interesting.

If the Earth's axis tilted half a degree, the Arctic Circle would move south (or north!) by 30 nautical miles, meaning slightly more (or fewer) people would experience 24-hour days and nights at some point in the year, and there would be minor climatic changes but an Ice Age...?

Of course, I am not a climatologist... :)

Ah, that's why I couldn't find it - it was Taiwan not Korea!!

http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/eischao.html

Looks like you were right - the wobble I was talking about is one of 2 degrees over about 41,000 years, and "serves as the pacemaker of ice ages"...

You lives and you learns...

The boxing day earthquake made the earth wobble - must have been close to 1degree of movement

The boxing day earthquake made the earth wobble - must have been close to 1degree of movement

1 second maybe, never 1 degree!!!

Actually, not even that much - a second is 1/60 of a nautical mile, or about 30 metres. From what I can find online, the axis shifted by 8cm, or 1/375 of a second = 1/1,350,000 of a degree.

So you were out by a factor of 135,000,000% :D

Ah well, who cares. Let's see something cheerful.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/3/3c/200px-Clown_chili_peppers.jpg

It's a clown. And if you don't like it, you can suck on my cock! That's what!

lol. My that post seemed more harsh than it needed to be.

Check this out :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JHdYBet_4Q

lmao, how happy does the commentator sound when she's talking over the impact?

Those crazy japs always get a bit carried away, have you seen how big that 'meteor' is in the video, it's the size of the fucking moon. So uhm, it'd be visible in the sky for quite a while before it hit. Bullshitters. *Snore*

Funny video though

I'm loving the fact that it will be on a Friday 13th that the asteroid just scrapes past us (or maybe it won't).. :eek:

I think its time to head to Athens :D

Britain needs a Sky Wars programme like the US had under Reagan. There was a science-fiction movie from Britain about twisting the earth's position to the sun. They used a nuclear reaction which went wrong. Such a bizarre storyline it had that I don't remember it. Think it was called 'The Day The World Stood Still'.

I better get the washing in off the line

Check this out :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JHdYBet_4Q
I have to admit, I did chuckle when you see the likes of Japan being ripped up from off the continental crust.

If something like that did hit, nobody would survive, our planet would be sent flying off and thats the end of that!

So it's not going to be hitting us 6th of June this year then? Bollox. What a cop out. :no:

Still, whatever, I say.....BRING IT ON!!!! :banana: :cheer: :dance: :dance: :dance:

Britain needs a Sky Wars programme like the US had under Reagan. There was a science-fiction movie from Britain about twisting the earth's position to the sun. They used a nuclear reaction which went wrong. Such a bizarre storyline it had that I don't remember it. Think it was called 'The Day The World Stood Still'.


No that's the wrong film - the one you refer to is actually called The Day The Earth Caught Fire.

I loved all those old b/w sci-fi films - they really got the young imagination going. Day The Earth Stood Still remains my joint fave sci-fi film of all time along with The Time Machine.

50 megaton bomb would do this (shows the devasation if it hit south east of UK)

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2046393742348211186

Well, unlucky to you southerners there then. Well, we still have Chuck Norris to save us.

^^ Or Flash Gordon?
The ancient Greeks predicted that the world would end in 2012. As it happens, they were wrong. If the asteroid doesn't get us in 2029, it will pass earth again in 2036. I'm all in favour of this happening, my life would go seriously downhill from 2036... dam old age!

never mind this, its the 6/6/06 in a few days....the day my exams start...:(

About time the world ended, don't you think? Some countries deserve to be wiped out.

Well, we still have Chuck Norris to save us.
Yeah precisely, there's nothing a Chuck Norris roundhouse kick can't stop.