I am very fearful that we Canadians are heading toward a dark age and possibly, the end of our very fragile nation.

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PM risked Canada: Gagliano
Predicts separation

Jack Aubry
CanWest News Service


Wednesday, April 20, 2005


http://a123.g.akamai.net/f/123/12465/1d/media.canada.com/canwest/44/042005natmain1.jpg
CREDIT: Montreal Gazette, Dave Sidaways
Alfonso Gagliano


OTTAWA - Alfonso Gagliano is predicting the end of Canada after Quebec separatists win the next referendum in the province -- and he says the country will have Paul Martin and his inquiry to blame.

In a telephone interview from Florida, the former Chretien Cabinet minister and Quebec lieutenant called Mr. Martin and his election team "a bunch of amateurs" in last year's election and suggested that Transport Minister Jean Lapierre may have acted improperly as a lobbyist before returning to federal politics in 2004.

Mr. Gagliano said Mr. Martin has badly damaged the Liberal party in Quebec and predicts the Bloc Quebecois will "sweep" the province's 75 seats in an upcoming election. He says the separatist party's big win will boost the fortunes of the Parti Quebecois.

"The next provincial election, unless there is a miracle, the PQ will win and they will call a referendum right away," Mr. Gagliano said. "And 'goodbye Canada.' This is the end, thanks to Paul Martin's leadership."

Mr. Gagliano, who was Mr. Chretien's Quebec political lieutenant for the 1997 and 2000 election campaigns, said he was "much more successful" in the province than Mr. Martin and Mr. Lapierre last year.

"I don't have to take any lessons from Paul Martin and Jean Lapierre. They were running a campaign like a bunch of amateurs," Mr. Gagliano said.

He said Mr. Lapierre is infamous for his "short fuse" and made numerous ill-considered statements during the campaign that hurt his party's chances. Calling him "opportunistic," he said the former Bloc Quebecois co-founder joined Mr. Martin believing they would sweep the country in last year's election.

"I think the first mistake Paul Martin made was calling the inquiry on his own party. Imagine if there had been a Gomery inquiry into the Mulroney years, or any political party. This is a very politically driven inquiry," said Mr. Gagliano.

He said "it is too late" to turn the Liberal party's fortunes around in Quebec: "The damage has been done for the next 10 years. The Liberal Party of Canada will have a tough time in Quebec. I mean, that is the only federalist party that can face the separatists."

Still bristling from Mr. Lapierre's comments a few weeks ago about "rotten apples" in the Liberal party, Mr. Gagliano recalled Mr. Lapierre, a consultant to several businesses at the time, approaching him when he was minister of Public Works, asking him to meet "a friend."

Accompanied by Mr.Lapierre, Mr. Gagliano said he met with Francois Dufort of Cossette Communications Group for a presentation on publicity services and only found out later that Mr. Lapierre was a lobbyist for the firm.

"If I'd known he was a lobbyist, I definitely wouldn't have gone," he said, adding that Mr. Lapierre had "in a sense" misrepresented himself.

"I am not settling accounts. I was asked about it and that's what happened," he said.

Cossette Communications has since landed the lucrative federal contract for placing ads for the government.

When asked about adman Claude Boulay's relationship with Mr. Martin, an issue that has dominated Question Period the past week, Mr. Gagliano said the pair first came together in 1990 in the leadership campaign.

He said Mr. Boulay also worked on Mr. Martin's LaSalle-Emard riding campaign in the 1993 election, and the pair both own properties in the same area of the Eastern Townships of Quebec. But he backed away from saying they were more than acquaintances: "I don't know really. What I know is the business side. I don't know the personal side."

© National Post 2005

Gagliano's talking mostly garbage. There will be another referendum, but you can thank Charest for that, not the sponsorship scandal.

Answer no 1: Yes referendum, No separation
Answer no 2: Yes referedum, No separation
Answer no 3: No referendum, No separation

None of the three answers are about what Gagliano is musing about. Try to keep your questions and answers short, or we'll need another clarity act on poll questions. :nuts:

Gagliano's talking mostly garbage. There will be another referendum, but you can thank Charest for that, not the sponsorship scandal.
This is true, which is sad, because I had hopes for that man when he first took office as a Liberal. What a P.o.S.
We've got McGuinty as the only smart Liberal now - because he's turned against them.

I really fear that there will be a referendum coming up because of sponsorship. The Liberals have equated federalism with corruption and managed to revitalize a moribund Bloc Quebecois in the process. Unless Charest manages to gain a TON of public support in the next two years, the next Quebec gov't will be a PQ gov't and it will call a referendum.

So they'll seperate, so what? They'll be forced to either return to Canada, or to join the U.S., where their language rights would be all but obliterated.

Give them a referendum, at least it would end all the special treatment of Quebec once they realize they can't survive economically with a Canadian embargo on their trade.

What the heck are you talking about boiiiii ? Are you wishing an embargo upon us ? You seem to have some hostile feelings towards Québec and our culture...

Anyways, first of all I dont have much trust for whatever Gagliano has to say. Also, this hole scandal thing is being somewhat blown out of proportion in that it is not breaking news that politicians are dishonest thieves, whatever party they represent. This being said, the sponsership scandal is definitely fueling the separitist movement in Quebec, altought probably not as much as Charrue Charest (as stated by others). I think there will be another referedum, as for the outcome, your guess is as good as mine.

I love Quebec I would hate it if they separated. I dont think this Liberal scandel has much to do with Quebec, I agree with what the leader of the Bloc said its a Liberal scandel that happend in Quebec. The liberals will get there asses handed to them in the upcoming election.

What the heck are you talking about boiiiii ? Are you wishing an embargo upon us ? You seem to have some hostile feelings towards Québec and our culture...

I have nothing against Quebec and their culture, I just think they should be treated like all other cultures in this country, not put on some pedestal. French and English are our official languages, not our official cultures.

Another thing, after Quebec has been taking our equalization payments for who knows how long, I believe there should be some retaliation if you guys cut and run. Then again, when you guys realize you can't have cheap daycare, well maintained roads, premium quality of education, etc. without the help of equalization, that might be punishment enough.

I think the biggest scandal is that nobody in Quebec will say out loud
that the bloc is a racist party.
Only a racist or the truly ignorant would vote for the bloc.

The conservative party was the birthplace of many a slimily separatist.

I have nothing against Quebec and their culture, I just think they should be treated like all other cultures in this country, not put on some pedestal. French and English are our official languages, not our official cultures.

Another thing, after Quebec has been taking our equalization payments for who knows how long, I believe there should be some retaliation if you guys cut and run. Then again, when you guys realize you can't have cheap daycare, well maintained roads, premium quality of education, etc. without the help of equalization, that might be punishment enough.

Whatever. Most of your ridiculous statements seem to be wishfull thinking more than anything else, and obviously you wish nothing positive upon us.

I think the biggest scandal is that nobody in Quebec will say out loud
that the bloc is a racist party.
Only a racist or the truly ignorant would vote for the bloc.

I don't think they're a racist party. They are a party of bigots, however. They think that they as a group are better and deserve preferential treatment over everybody else.

If they decide to seperate, we will just have to take the land back that wasn't Quebec's before confederation :D.

http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/h18/f1/1867-v5-e.jpg

The so called “money and the ethnic vote”
will want Montreal to stay Canadian.
The Cree and Mohawks will want to stay Canadian.
A separated Quebec will be even smaller.

It ain't gonna happen. The sponsorship scandal isn't that big of an issue to push people off the edge. If Québec is divisible from Canada, some parts of Québer are divisible too (parts of Montreal, Outaouais, the North, the St. Lawrence Seaway).

Yeah, I honestly don't think that Quebec will seperate. EVER.
It's not in the best interest of the people.
Only the radicals want to seperate.

I have actual heard that the sponsership scandel has talk in Quebec of seperation/referndum, though, its from a very unrealible person that told me.

But its funny if it actually is true. Quebec, pissed that Ontario and Albertan money is getting mispent. It would be sure seperation if Quebec was actually a net transferer in equalization.

The sponsorship scandal as a result of a corrupt federal Liberal government means should there be another referendum, there's no one to defend Canada and especially the Liberals. The Liberal's brand is shit and no maple leaf love-ins in Montreal will help sway Quebecers to Canada's side next time.

The bloc or any other A-HOLE who refers to my flag
as a red rag can kiss my ass.

Not even flesh-eating disease can stomach a whole separatist!

There was a short blurb about this on CNN.
Can someone please explain to me the bolded line:

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OTTAWA, Canada (Reuters) -- A majority of voters in French-speaking Quebec back sovereignty for the province, the highest level for more than seven years, according to an opinion poll released on Wednesday.

The Leger Marketing poll for the Globe and Mail newspaper said 54 percent of people in Quebec said they would back sovereignty in a referendum, reflecting deep anger about allegations of federal government corruption.

But asked if a vote for sovereignty still meant that they wanted Quebec to be part of Canada, 56 percent of respondents said yes and 40 percent said no, the Globe said.

Quebecers voted against sovereignty by the narrowest of majorities in an October 1995 referendum.

Officials from the separatist Parti Quebecois, in government in the province at the time, said later they had been prepared to declare Quebec independent if they had won the vote.

The federal Liberal government responded to the result of the referendum by setting up a program to increase Ottawa's presence in the province.

But the program was deeply flawed, and last year an official report into the program said C$100 million in public money had been funneled to Liberal-friendly firms, often for little or no work.

In recent weeks a public inquiry into the scandal has heard allegations that Liberals in Quebec demanded kickbacks from firms in return for advertising contracts, and the revelations have crushed support for the Liberals in the province.

The Leger survey also showed that 76 percent of Quebec voters felt betrayed by federal government actions after the 1995 referendum.

Leger surveyed 1,008 people in Quebec between April 24 and 27 and its poll is considered to be accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Previous polls in the past year put support for sovereignty at between 44 percent and 49 percent.

-----------------------

So let me get this straight. Quebec wants to seperate but still be part of Canada? I don't get it. What, use Canadian money, passport, trade agreements?

Ottawa hands Quebec something like $13 billion a year in equalization payments. How the hell would they make up that shortfall without taxing the people and running in ever greater debt?

Honestly, I'm sick of hearing about this. If they want to go, go. But you can't have your cake and eat it too. Get your own money, national defence, passports, renegotiate trade agreements etc.

Regardless of what transpires in Ottawa, or anywhere else in this world...planet...galaxy, the threat of separatism will always loom.

I hope the Parti Quebeçois doesn't read this! ;)
________________________________
54% in Quebec back sovereignty
By RHÉAL SÉGUIN
Wednesday, April 27, 2005 Page A1

QUEBEC -- Support for sovereignty in Quebec has broken through the 50-per-cent barrier to its highest level since 1998 amid growing controversy over the sponsorship scandal.

A new poll shows 54 per cent of decided voters would support sovereignty in a referendum that offered an economic and political partnership with the rest of Canada -- the same question asked in the Oct. 30, 1995, referendum.

Polls over the past year asking similar questions showed support of between 44 and 49 per cent for sovereignty.

The survey, conducted by Léger Marketing for The Globe and Mail and Le Devoir, comes as a new controversy erupted in Quebec after Michel Robert, the province's Chief Justice, said separatists should not be appointed to the bench.

The last time support for sovereignty was this high was in October, 1998, the pollsters say. Quebec was then weeks away from a provincial election, which was won by Lucien Bouchard of the Parti Québécois.

This survey, conducted April 21 to 24, shows 76 per cent of voters felt betrayed by the actions of the former prime minister and the Liberal Party of Canada after the 1995 referendum on sovereignty.

That opinion was shared by a majority of federalists regardless of their political allegiance, according to the poll.

"The sponsorship program, which contributed to undermining support for sovereignty between 1997 and 2002, is now having the opposite effect," said pollster Jean-Marc Léger. "In fact it is helping rebuild the sovereignty movement."

The survey found 37 per cent of respondents said the scandal and the allegations at the Gomery Commission motivated their decision to support sovereignty. Even among those who described themselves as federalist, 13 per cent said the inquiry would motivate them to vote for sovereignty.

Almost half -- 49 per cent of voters -- believe that Quebec will one day become a sovereign country while 41 per cent said it won't and 10 per cent said they didn't know.

And 49 per cent expressed a desire to have another referendum, while 46 per cent said they were against it. The remaining 5 per cent were undecided.

"People are no longer reluctant to want to vote in a referendum. The winning conditions are beginning to take shape if English Canada does not act quickly," Mr. Léger said.

However, support for sovereignty appears to be more a reflection of Quebeckers' anger toward the federal government than a deep-seated desire to achieve political independence.

When asked if by voting for sovereignty they still wanted Quebec to continue to be a part of Canada, 56 per cent of respondents said yes and 40 per cent responded no, with 4 per cent undecided.

Renewed federalism remained the preferred option for a sizable portion of the population, according to the poll, but voters are still deeply divided over the issue.

When asked if they believed in the possibility of renewed federalism in which Quebec would have its "rightful place in Canada," about 48 per cent expressed confidence it could happen; 45 per cent said no and 8 per cent refused to answer or didn't know.

"What this poll really says is that Canada still remains the first choice of a majority of Quebeckers. But if there is no offer of renewed federalism, Quebeckers are prepared to go to the extreme and vote for sovereignty. In other words they will choose sovereignty by default," Mr. Léger said.

The Bloc Québécois appears poised to capitalize on the backlash against the federal Liberals. The poll says it now leads by 31 percentage points.

After distribution of the undecided voters in a proportion equal to the expressed voting intentions, 53 per cent said they would vote for the Bloc, 22 per cent for the Liberals, 12 per cent for the Conservatives, 9 per cent for the NDP and 3 per cent for other parties.

"If the Bloc surpasses the crucial 50-per-cent mark in the next election, it could have a considerable impact on the PQ vote and on a potential referendum on sovereignty," Mr. Léger said.

Léger Marketing, which during the 1995 referendum accurately predicted the final tally in which federalists won with 50.6 per cent of the vote, conducted interviews with 1,008 eligible voters throughout Quebec. The poll is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out 20.

"A new poll shows 54 per cent of decided voters would support sovereignty in a referendum that offered an economic and political partnership with the rest of Canada"

Hmm. I guess then the fair thing to do would be to hold a referendum for the rest of Canada asking "If Quebec votes to seperate, do you agree that it should have an economic and political partnership with Canada?"

Interesting how they (seperatists) automatically assume this would happen. IMO, this is CANADA's descision - NOT Quebec's.

My attitude towards Quebec is simple: If you vote to fuk off: Fuk off already.

The only interesting thing about a 'Yes' victory, would be the aftermath movements of parts of Cuebec wanting to stay in Canada, and trying to hold their own referendums. If I were the federalists, I would hold a referendum in each region, which would fragment Quebec and would probably worsen Quebec's subsequent fiscal ability.

It would devastate their fiscal ability because they would loose the northern part of the province which contains massive hydro-electric dams (James Bay etc).

Either way, it would be a mess. Perhaps the people of Quebec aren't aware of what would actually happen? Economically speaking. What's interesting too is that most fanatic seperatists tend to be in regions where there is the highest unemployment and social handouts (IE. Chicoutimi, Gaspe). Thankfully, Montreal has more sense than the rest of province.

That will utimately save them again.

Quebec seperation could work if there were no actual border crossings (after the dust settles) so that you could move between Canada and Quebec like you could now. There would have be a lot of give and take, ie., NAFTA right now allows Canada to veto any new partners, sharing of the St lawerence seaway, etc. etc. They would be very stupid to adopt their own currency, in lieu of using either the CDN or US dollar. Can you imagine the interest rates in Quebec with their own currency? That would be crazy. Ultimately, I think a yes Vote would force changes to the current federalism, and force the Feds to give more powers to the provinces.

I vote NO, reflecting my hopes, not possible reality.

It would devastate their fiscal ability because they would loose the northern part of the province which contains massive hydro-electric dams (James Bay etc).

Either way, it would be a mess. Perhaps the people of Quebec aren't aware of what would actually happen? Economically speaking. What's interesting too is that most fanatic seperatists tend to be in regions where there is the highest unemployment and social handouts (IE. Chicoutimi, Gaspe). Thankfully, Montreal has more sense than the rest of province.

That will utimately save them again.

I love to read the Arrogance and mostly the ignorance spewed forth by people from the ROC concerning Québec and its future!

WE are gonna lose the northern territories? Canada will decide everything for us after a yes vote? Jesus, where the hell do you guys find these idiotic comments?

If Québec ever separates, WE will keep all of our hydro electric dams. Canada won't be able to put its greasy paws on them!

Anyways, i can say anything on these boards but it won't do anything to help some of you understand better when it comes to Québec and separation!

Ah partition. A recipe for success in modern day nation building projects. Unless you're prejudiced in the first place, I don't think any sensible person would disagree that Northern Ireland or the Balkans aren't successful countries and territories. We should do the same to Quebec! At least we can piss off those damn separatists!

Quebec could conceivably 'keep' the dams but would have to lease the land since it would be within Canada's borders.

Hills posted this. Makes sense to me!

If they decide to seperate, we will just have to take the land back that wasn't Quebec's before confederation :D.

http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/h18/f1/1867-v5-e.jpg

I love to read the Arrogance and mostly the ignorance spewed forth by people from the ROC concerning Québec and its future!
!

The real ignorance regarding seperation I read comes a lot from you. There are alot more issues than just a yes/no vote. There are partion issues, as well negotiations to be had, with both Canada and Quebec having real valid bargaining chips. And if you think that Quebec will decide all terms of its seperation just shows how naive some seperatists are.

Roch5220: Your comments about partitioning Quebec does not appear to be very well thought either. What level of government are you going to hold referenda for people to stay in Canada? On a riding by riding basis? Vaudreuil-Soulanges, a riding stuck between the Ontario border and West Island isn't a very strong federalist riding, so are you going to get West Island out of Quebec while having Vaudreuil-Soulanges remain in Quebec? Or by a regional basis? Then the supposedly federalist Montreal would be surrounded by sovereigntist regions (Montérégie, Laval). In any case, this idea is going to Balkanise Quebec, and anyone proposing is either just too naive to believe it would be good for Canada or too mallicious towards Quebec that he would just want to find any way to piss off Quebec.

They would be very stupid to adopt their own currency, in lieu of using either the CDN or US dollar. Can you imagine the interest rates in Quebec with their own currency? That would be crazy.
But what is the alternative? Separate from Canada and become more independent and then have our monetary policy dictated to us by another country. Where is the independence there? If we are going to separate from Canada, a new currency and federal bank is a must, but then what would that cost? With out the equalization payments, how would we support all our public servants and great social policies???

The only thing this debate highlights is how ignorant the separatist movement is! Surely you can not be that silly to think that by separating from Canada, all our problems will be solved, we will just inherit bigger problems and have a smaller capacity to deal with them.

Roch5220: Your comments about partitioning Quebec does not appear to be very well thought either.

I don't have the answer - nor would I try to guess such a difficult issue (which is why I only mention it in passing), but in theory, if areas in Quebec want to seperate, what would stop them if they hold a referendum themselves? And there has been some undercurrent in the past regarding such. I wouldn't doubt if a lot of grass roots movements poped up all over quebec in the situation of seperation. These are all theories and best guesses, my point is that its not going to be as smooth or on the conditions of what the PQ says that it will happen.

But what is the alternative? Separate from Canada and become more independent and then have our monetary policy dictated to us by another country. .................With out the equalization payments, how would we support all our public servants and great social policies???
.

Well, this is why the PQ want to use the CDN currency, and have a say on monetary policy. The chips that Quebec would hold, which they have threatened in the past is that if Canada doesn't accept this, then they would not take their share of the debt, which according to international law, would not be a violation.

Your second point about equalization payments, techically, if there was no economic impact of seperation in Quebec, and Quebec chose not to take their share of the debt, then technically taking away debt and interest payments this would not be an issue. A big chunk of the gov't budget goes to such payments. But again, the risk of having a Quebec currency is the short term impact of having high interest rates/inflation. The only way to counter this would be to secure large financing line of credits internationally to deter speculators. Or peg the currency to the US Dollar (which makes more sence than pegging to the CDN dollar).

How can there be no economic impact if Quebec separated? That is a totally naive thought.
Some or all of the following could happen. Overnight the Can$ and stock market would plunge. Many English speaking companies in Montreal would move out taking there jobs with them, those new jobless would then need to sell there houses causing a huge downturn in the housing market. No other companies would be looking to invest until the situation stabled. If Quebec forgoes its federal dept, Canada could be come very hostile and difficult to negotiate with. Who would want to migrate here? There would be pockets of anti-separatist movements breaking out, causing mass civil disobedience.
As I said this is only speculation, but to think there would be no impact is just plain silly.

Geez, can't people read. Do things after to be spelled out.

I don't have the answer - nor would I try to guess such a difficult issue (which is why I only mention it in passing), but in theory, if areas in Quebec want to seperate, what would stop them if they hold a referendum themselves? And there has been some undercurrent in the past regarding such. I wouldn't doubt if a lot of grass roots movements poped up all over quebec in the situation of seperation. These are all theories and best guesses, my point is that its not going to be as smooth or on the conditions of what the PQ says that it will happen.

Point well taken. I just wanted to point out that the partition of Quebec is a very bad idea and completely unnecessary. Will there be enough grassroot for that? We'll see, but I think not.