View Full Version : The Turnout - Any Guesses?
AndrewC May 5th, 2005, 01:25 PM Heard a lot of negative observations from people on the HaveYouVoted yet thread about poor numbers at their polling station.
So lets have a poll shall we.
I'm saying 35%
mrout May 5th, 2005, 01:36 PM I reckon it'll be higher than last time, which was in the region of 59%.
I'll go for 64%
(admittedly i chose the wrong thing on the poll above)
Jonesy55 May 5th, 2005, 01:38 PM It'll be 60-65% I think.
AndrewC May 5th, 2005, 01:40 PM oops i went for european election percentiles! Oh well, just carry on stating your guess.
Blunther May 5th, 2005, 01:45 PM A bit more than last time I'd say. 62-63%.
Can't stay up and watch it all night now 'cos it's all gone tits up at work and I need to be in in the morning :(
Zim Flyer May 5th, 2005, 01:47 PM 55%
pricemazda May 5th, 2005, 01:48 PM over 60% maybe 64%
Monkey May 5th, 2005, 01:51 PM I'll go with 67%.
The introduction of postal ballots should boost numbers, plus the weather in most areas isn't too bad.
I'm sure it will be higher than last time (2001 was actually the lowest turnout since 1918, with only 59%).
gothicform May 5th, 2005, 01:59 PM 55%
labour to win a majority on the lowest vote ever and to benefit from our stupid electoral system. libdems and other parties will be the big vote gainers but wont translate these into hundreds of seats because of the way we count our votes. blair to be returned with a three figure majority as a result and much outrage from the rest of the country at the size of it despite the low labour vote.
Xtremegamer May 5th, 2005, 03:08 PM How is our electorial system "stupid", Gothicform?
capslock May 5th, 2005, 03:15 PM How is our electorial system "stupid", Gothicform?
Have a look at this thread
HERE (http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=208961)
Jonesy55 May 5th, 2005, 03:19 PM How is our electorial system "stupid", ?
Well, 2001 election share of the vote:
Labour 41%
Conservative 32%
Lib Dem 18%
Other 9%
Share of the seats won:
Labour 63%
Conservative 25%
Lib Dem 8%
Other 4%
Our system relies on the votes of about 850,000 swing voters in marginal seats while everybody elses vote, especially in safe seats counts for little. The tories need over 5% more of the vote than labour to become the largest party and even if the Lib Dems were to catch up with the tories in terms of votes they would still have nowhere near as many seats.
Stupid.
Munch May 5th, 2005, 03:21 PM i think the party system is probably more stupid than the electoral system.... i dont think highly of the alternative either...
Eitherway, i would much prefer a strong government at a time as opposed to gridlock and compromised coalitions....
I have heard many expect a shocking landslide (making it less shocking if expected..) but i am not sure myself...
Jonesy55 May 5th, 2005, 03:34 PM i think the party system is probably more stupid than the electoral system
But our system doesn't exactly encourage the formation of and support for new/minority parties because people know they have little to no chance of being represented in parliament.
I predict somewhere around 70-100 seat majority for labour with the Lib Dems and Tories both gaining equally.
gothicform May 5th, 2005, 03:37 PM the worst example was 1983 when the spd/liberal alliance polled 28% and got about 20 seats. here's the thing, the lib dems are in more marginal seats with the tories than labour so lib dem gains undo tory gains in terms of seats.
result -
labour loses almost no seats to lib dems and only a few to the tories
tories lose a few seats to the lib dems
lib dems vote goes up to 24% this time
tories have the same number of seats as before
lib dems have a few more
labour have a few less
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