Which will be the World's most Populous country by 2025

India. Didn't it just surpass China? I think it currently is the most populous.

Not yet...

I voted:
India...

I am sorry for India... it is just HORRIBLE to imagine it...

india..

India,no contest!

india, go india...

:lock:

Depends on the economic outlook.

If India keeps up the growth, the birth rate will go down and with luck it won't surpass China in 2025. Maybe later though.

INDIA

India

Dear mods, This is not city Vs city, so its better to lock this thread

ah.... i should give my vote to india,but i voted by mistake for china~~ i didn't mean this to happen at all~~~

Why should it be locked? It should simply be moved to 'Citytalk and Urban Issues'.

India

they said india will surpass china's population but dont know exactly when

Can ask a question? Does India has a reducing birth plan like China has? because when it hasn't, it definately is going to outstrip China I think, not?

India

Still China. I don't think India will surpass China before 2040.

It will still be China if we rely on wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_populous_nations_by_2025)

I read somewhere that India will overtake China by 2036.
However, at best it is only an estimate.

India's area is only 1/3 of China.

India's area is only 1/3 of China.

Yes it's impressive, Indian Union has actually the same size (approx) that European Union (25 members), so to have a fact about reality, you need to double european countries and cities. Netherlands would have 32 millions inh. (all the country would look like Hong-Kong i suppose...), Germany would have 164 millions... it's freaking !

even though the population growh rate in china is not high, china faces many other problems.

Wuhan has become the second city in China, after Shanghai, to register negative population growth, according to city officials.

The capital of Central China's Hubei Province had, for the first time in the past 55 years, minus population growth in 2004, according to statistics.

The city's natural population growth was minus 1.89 per thousand last year compared with 2.88, 2.16 and 2.15 per thousand respectively for the 2001-03 period.

One major factor was the high death rate, said Gao Huixiang, an official with the Wuhan Family Planning Working Committee. "Last year's death rate was high, 9.39 per thousand."

According to the Wuhan Statistics Yearbook, the city's death rate was 4.97, 4.92 and 5.01 per thousand from 2001 to 2003 respectively.

Meanwhile, the annual birth rate was relatively stable, standing at 7.85, 7.08, 7.16 and 7.5 per thousand from 2001 to 2004 respectively.

"Fewer newborn babies and more senior citizens indicate that the city has gradually turned into an ageing society," Gao said.

A rough indicator of an ageing society is when people aged 60 or above account for 10 per cent of the total population.

This year, Wuhan is to focus on striving for a reasonable balance in the proportion between the newborn baby boys and girls.

In Hubei, there were 128 newborn boys for every 100 newborn girls last year compared to the international norm of 106 to 100.

"We'll make more efforts in combating illegal and improper foetal gender checkup and non-medical termination," Gao said.

Wuhan is not alone in having an ageing society. Shanghai is believed to be the first city in China to encounter the ageing phenomenon.

In Beijing, people over 60 and 65 accounted for 12.54 and 8.4 per cent of the general population by 2000, an obvious indicator of an ageing society. So, too, Tianjin, which has been reporting a low population growth.

Zhang Kaidi, deputy director of the China National Scientific Research Centre on Ageing Issues, told China Daily that among the cities reporting low or negative population growth rates across China, Shanghai's figures are the most accurate and the city can be categorized as an ageing society.

The city first showed signs of minus population growth in 1993 after a national census.
"The use of different statistical methods may lead to the inaccuracies," Zhang said.
Most of the population surveys are done door-to-door, which excludes the floating population by and large, he said.

Zhang's view is shared by other demographers.

"In big cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the census is probably conducted only among local household registered population," said Qiao Xiaochun, a demographer with Beijing-based Renmin University of China.


(Liu Weifeng, China Daily)
http://www.npfpc.gov.cn/en/en2005-03/enews20050302.htm

^^ yes i agree. India won't surpass China anytime soon, even though India's population growth is huge, China is still growing so yeah, India will for sure pass China's population by the half-way mark of this century (if figures remain the same)

India probably will pass China in population the coming decades, maybe not at 2025, but later, perhaps. Both India and China's population rates are falling, and India hasn't yet instituted any population control laws yet.

Currently, India's population growth rate is 1.3%, and going down steadily each year. However, India does have almost one and a half times more arable land than China, and of that land, over 2/3 of food produced actually rots in silos without being delivered to the market.

The Indian government's priority now is firstly to maximize effeciancies in food production and distribution while the population growth rate, goes down further from overall economic development; hence the major, major investments in infrastructure, GM crops, agriculture techniques and technologies, etc.

Secondly, to increase overall economic development in rural areas. The poorest rural areas of India are the places seeing the biggest population growth, as impoverished families look at children as economic assets that will bring in more money to the family to survive.

There is also the problem that certain demographic groups have the highest population growth rates. Sikhs and Hindus have relatively low (1-2 child) rates, whereas the Muslim population has up to 6 children on average per family, according to studies... But then again, Muslims are the most economically deprived community in India as well, so it can be an economic rather than cultural factor.

If there is ever a time when the population size gets critical, you'd probably have population control laws enacted. Hopefully, the population growth will be controlled before it reaches that stage

India will surpass China eventually, but not 2025 or before. China's population control is working, and eventually, I reckon around 2030-35, India should surpass China.

Perhaps, the most RIDICULOUS of the polls..

WHY?

Because, I think that the winner here is actually the big loser...

India without population control like China will most likely surpass China in 25-30 years time. There are an extra 15 million mouths to feed in India every year. It's amazing how they're able to do that.

db

as Jai pointed out, India has more arable land, so it probably wouldn't be a disaster for them. On the other hand, China probably will become an aging society before it's fully industralized, that really sucks.

India's growth rate in 2004 compared to the rest of the world is 75. India 1.44
whiile China is 118 China 0.57

But if you include Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan= 113 Hong Kong 0.65 106 Macau 0.87 114 Taiwan 0.64

Just for fun, here are the result for US, Canada, and Aus.

103 United States 0.92
103 Canada 0.92
105 Australia 0.90

Number 1 is..........1 Afghanistan 4.92

http://www.photius.com/rankings/population/population_growth_rate_2004_0.html

Current population=
China 1,298,847,624
India 1,065,070,607
http://www.photius.com/rankings/population/population_2004_0.html
Maybe 2025 or longer, so China is the answer for this poll.

India. Didn't it just surpass China? I think it currently is the most populous.

your assumption is premature.

India has about 1.1 billion now.

China still has over 1.3 billion.

China no longer needs too much arable land.
China's arable land is less than India,that means China has much more forests and lakes and other landscapes than India.
China:agriculture:industry:service=15:53:32

China should develop service now.

http://jh.wowotou.com/s8d16/autopostimg/200321817315.jpg

Go India!!!

China.

Having the higher population isn't something to cheer for, especially when there are so many people in poverty and unable to feed themselves.

Since India is winning in this poll.... India is the "loser" because of too much and more people in poverty, more polluted.

I don't think any Indian or Chinese is cheering to win this poll. :|

Agreed. Both China and India have abnormal population.

INDIA !

India by 2030-2040. 2025 is just too early.

China's population is enough:)

http://img71.echo.cx/img71/4084/chinaindia8dv.jpg

http://img71.echo.cx/img71/4084/chinaindia8dv.jpg

Russia is wonderful, thanks to have sharing it.

these deserts area always has lots of oil.:)

China ..

I think in 2025 it will still be China.

China will be loosing population by 2025 due to its one child policy. India however does not have a one child policy and its population is still increasing very rapidly. So i pick india.

omg big population is so scary china will become ageing country before it becomes industrialised oh god

India will overtake China between 2040-2050.