which will be the 10 most important cities in 2020? [Archive]

UnitedPakistan

June 4th, 2005, 08:38 AM

Karachi is most definetely on the list and so is Gwadar!

are you guys out of your mind lol!

even the NY Times reported about Gwadar's importance and how it will compete with dubai!

here is my article to support my reasoning

Karachi Awakens

By Anthony Mitchell
E-Commerce Times
02/15/05 5:00 AM PT

"These are the good times for Pakistan," said the Cathay Pacific manager in Los Angeles, who is originally from Karachi. Decades of neglect are being compensated (and in some cases overcompensated) by the government of President Pervez Musharraf. Investment is pouring in from countries in the Persian Gulf, from India, and especially from China.

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Megacities with populations larger than entire countries are changing the physical and economic landscape of the globe. Megacities have economic engines that are powering the future of the world. Megacities have larger markets than many developed countries.

The megacities are coming. They are the future. They are here now.

Karachi, Pakistan's, population of 14 million is augmented by an equal number of people in nearby satellite towns. The Karachi area has more people than Canada and an airport smaller than modest U.S. towns such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Indianapolis, Indiana, or Tallahassee, Florida.

A Quick Quiz
Landing in Karachi today is the economic equivalent of visiting a huge spaceship moments before blastoff. You can feel the engines rumbling, the ground shaking, and you only have a few seconds to either jump off or be rocketed into the stratosphere.

What city has the fastest growing stock market in the world? Karachi.

What English language high school consistently tops out the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores? Karachi Grammar School.

What country has the fastest growing cell phone market? Pakistan.

The statistics go on and on.

Reading statistics is no substitute for seeing a place. So I stuffed my American preconceptions into a suitcase and headed out from Seattle.

Good Times
"These are the good times for Pakistan," said the Cathay Pacific manager in Los Angeles, who is originally from Karachi. Decades of neglect are being compensated (and in some cases overcompensated) by the government of President Pervez Musharraf. Investment is pouring in from countries in the Persian Gulf, from India, and especially from China.

China is building a massive port in a Karachi suburb that sits at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. China sees Pakistan as a means to expand its market presence throughout the region.

Only U.S. firms, burdened by preconceptions, are holding back. American firms are afraid to even market computer hardware and software to a rapidly expanding market that is flush with cash and ready to spend.

Indian IT firms are gradually moving in because their own software economy has experienced labor shortages and price increases. Pakistan is 30 percent cheaper than India for information technology outsourcing. According to Karachi-based Alt-Source Communications, Karachi alone has 300,000 English-speaking job seekers in the 18 to 35 year old range who are interested in and qualified for call center work.

Arriving in Karachi
The plane touches down in Karachi in the middle of the night. The fashions here are different than the U.S., but the people are warm, friendly and surprisingly gentle. In Indian airports, it is a struggle to keep control of your baggage. Here nobody bothers me.

My government-supplied escorts are noticeably absent. Strike one. After half an hour of waiting, I hop in a cab and go to the hotel where my government tour planners had assured me a room. Strike two -- with lots more to come. If this happens to you, take it in stride. The private sector is where the action is.

The government here is remarkably hands-off -- perhaps a little too hands off. In India, when there is a problem, the government will often become involved in a major way. In Pakistan, the reaction is often for government to pull back or to engage in negotiations with disaffected groups.

Expo Pakistan 2005
I'm here to attend a national export-oriented trade show from February 2 through February 6 and then to screen software and call center facilities for possible outsourcing contracts from the U.S. Expo Pakistan 2005 is a big deal here because large international trade fairs do not happen very often in this country. I happened to be passing through here when the last one was held, 35 years ago.

The Pakistanis don't need to look very far to see how trade shows can function if they are done well. In New Delhi there are 10 to 12 major trade shows every year for IT firms, with other metro regions hosting their own lavish displays. Trade shows are a well-developed industry in India and the Indians are good at organizing them.

The ultimate intellectual trade show is India's Kolkata Book Fair. It is held in February every year, with specially constructed temporary buildings brimming with rare titles and stampeding crowds of intellectuals for whom the book fair is the ultimate literary pilgrimage. Who needs Stratford-on-Avon when the Kolkata Book Fair beckons?

A Tale of Two Cities
Comparisons between Kolkata and Karachi are inevitable. As megacities of similar size straddling opposite sides of the Indian subcontinent, they have both been languishing in economic obscurity until now. Both their governments have committed themselves to turning things around, to starting the economic engines of their huge labor forces, and to create the future rather than perpetually chase after it.

Both megacities have image problems, but Kolkata's intellectuals are not afraid to wax poetic about the joys inspired by their much-loved and long neglected metropolis. In contrast, rapid social change in Karachi has left many people here with an identity crisis and self esteem issues. The fact that visas to the U.S. from Pakistan are now so hard to obtain is not helping the situation.

Both megacities will succeed. But Karachi has a better urban infrastructure than any big Indian metro, less traffic, far better tax policies, and less religious tension. Wages for manual work are higher than in India and there is less extreme poverty here. The fact that alcohol is rare contributes to a happier, healthier and more productive populace.

Karachi has a vibrant alcohol-free nightlife. The residents here love to eat out and then go down to the beaches. There are throngs of well-mannered young men and women strolling around on the beaches until well past 2 a.m.

The city's main beaches are well lit and, in my experience, are safe for Americans alone. I've been down there late at night with fellow Rutgers graduates. Rutgers alumni appear plentiful enough and successful enough to be in a position to establish a permanent alumni clubhouse in one of the neighborhoods near the beach.

Religious Tolerance
A big question about Pakistan is the status of religious minorities here. The roughly 600,000 Hindus in Karachi are part of the economic elite, have almost assimilated, and have generally adopted lifestyles similar to the larger population -- much to the bane of vegetarians who visit here from the U.S. and India.

Christians and a smattering of Zoroastrians run the primary and secondary schools, which contributes to the acceptance that those groups experience. The Christians who I talked with all spoke about how comfortable they feel here. Everyone who I spoke with was respectful of the U.S. and Americans, even though they did not always understand or agree with U.S. policies.

On February 2, 2005, on my second full night in Karachi, I'm whisked off to the expo to hear President Musharraf deliver the opening remarks. His bodyguards are the best part of the show. As a front-line country in the "War on Terror," there have been attempts on his life. Despite those attempts, the former commando has been traveling widely and meeting large numbers of people up and down the country as if he was campaigning for office. His bodyguards make that happen.

Democrats for Musharraf
In a rough survey of about 100 people that I conducted here, every single person spoke favorably of Musharraf. Most said that Musharraf is just what the country needs right now. The word "modest" is often used to describe him. Some would preface their endorsements by saying: "As an avowed democrat ..."

One of Musharraf's themes is openness and transparency in government. In the upcoming privatization of a large share of the government-owned telephone company, for example, he is having the bids opened and inspected by journalists who have been critical of the government -- a public process that we have yet to see in the U.S.

The press's openness to criticize Musharraf is remarkable and would have been unthinkable five years ago. The criticisms that I'm most interested in are those having to do with the pace of land reform and the social consequences of Pakistan not having moved forward as fast or as extensively as India has done with the land reform efforts undertaken since both countries gained their independence in 1947.

As Musharraf began his opening remarks at Pakistan Expo 2005, a small explosion occurred between us. There is a popping noise and a burning object falls from the ceiling. Without flinching, Musharraf assures the crowd that it is not a gunshot, telling everyone that he can distinguish gunfire from other sounds. The crowd laughs. It turns out that a lamp overheated and burst.

Stability
Musharraf emphasizes the continuity of purpose and policies that his government is using to create a stable business environment (something that is sadly lacking in the taxation policies of neighboring countries). Although the United States is contributing to stability in Pakistan, there are few Americans in the Expo crowd.

Musharraf spoke of moderation in Islam. Islam serves as a unifying force in what is actually a surprisingly secular country, something that none of Pakistan's neighbors except China can say about themselves.

In Musharraf's speeches on Urdu language television stations, he is much more blunt than he is in English. "We have a problem," Musharraf tells his Urdu audiences, speaking in frank terms about the issues facing Pakistan and how the country needs to change.

"Come visit Pakistan," Musharraf tells the crowd at Expo. If you visit, you will be pleasantly surprised, he adds.

I know, because I am. I've stayed on after the Expo to gather practical information on how both IT and non-IT firms operate, information that will be presented here later.

UnitedPakistan

June 4th, 2005, 08:39 AM

Searching for IT in Karachi

By Anthony Mitchell
E-Commerce Times
02/22/05 5:00 AM PT

As U.S. firms attempt to follow the market into an increasingly saturated India, Indian firms are looking to lower their costs by coming to Pakistan, which is 30 percent cheaper than India for IT work and has an underutilized talent pool of English speakers and computer science graduates.

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Two motorcycles collide, Ben Hur style, spilling four lads out across the roadway, slick with gray water. They pick themselves up, brush off their clothes, pull fenders and other peripherals back into place, then speed away. Not one harsh word is exchanged. Nor is there a single helmet among the lot of them.

Welcome to the old Saddar market area of Karachi, Pakistan, where computers, mobile devices, and other electronics are sold. Business is booming here, with goods flying out of the stores like birds freed from a cage.

There is a hunt going on. Nearby in the same old downtown area on the following night, I spot two men attempting to climb over an iron fence. They are the first Westerners that I've seen outside a hotel in more than two weeks here. They are attempting to cross a busy street and have become stranded by heavy traffic. I wonder if they will starve.

Leading the Market
The hunt I'm on is to discover markets for information technology in Pakistan and to find software and call center firms that will perform well if provided with outsourcing contracts from U.S. clients.

As U.S. firms attempt to follow the market into an increasingly saturated India, Indian firms are looking to lower their costs by coming to Pakistan, which is 30 percent cheaper than India for IT work and has an underutilized talent pool of English speakers and computer science graduates.

These Indian firms are onto something. Why follow the market when you can lead it?

Before the Boom
Karachi feels like the Bangalore that I knew in 1995, when I was there to help found a software startup specializing in artificial intelligence . That was before the boom that has strained the availability of high quality IT labor availability across all of India except Kolkata (formerly Calcutta).

Pakistan now has better long-term economic fundamentals than India did both then and now. With inflation at 4 percent per year, a good track record on reducing foreign debt, and a prime minister whose last job was as the No. 3 person at Citibank, Pakistan has been sending strong signals on investment and trade.

Pakistan taxes domestic IT services at 5 percent. IT products and services destined for international markets are not taxed at all. This compares to India's new 36 percent tax on foreign owned IT and research and development operations there. India will always have a strong position in the market for global IT services, but Pakistan's emergence signals new high quality, low-cost service options -- and a less protectionist market for U.S. exports.

Back Alleys of Karachi
In the back alleys of this megalopolis of 30 million people (14 million in the city proper) on the shores of the Arabian Sea, I have yet to stumble upon a hidden outsourcing facility.

Staying in a rundown colonial-era mansion in downtown Kolkata a few years ago, I was surprised to find that an old horse stable on the property had been turned into an Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) service center. It still looked like a stable. Inside the dimly lit room were rows of tiny monochrome monitors, manned by quiet workers, mostly women.

"Can you find us any Oracle work?" asked the mansion's owner.

"Can you find these people bigger monitors?" should have been my reply, "and a proper restroom?"

Here in Karachi, everything has been on the up and up, so far.

Expectations
In Karachi I expected to see a bunch of brand new companies going after bottom-end business from the U.S. In the call center space, there are almost a dozen firms like that in Pakistan now, compared to half a dozen merchant firms here that are going after high-end business.

Karachi has only seen three call center failures over the last two years, all small operations. In 18 months, this number is expected to increase as unprepared investors enter and exit the field.

Pakistan's government is pushing local investors to start IT businesses here. Because neither the government nor local investors have much of an idea about where new IT firms should focus, there is a risk that the IT industry will repeat the mistakes made over the last five years in India.

In India, the hype about IT drove countless entrepreneurs to engage in businesses in which they had no chance of success. In that country I've seen software firms open, maintain a full staff, and then close without ever implementing a single commercial contract. One in Chennai went on that way for three years. It's painful to watch and even more painful to try to work with people in those circumstances.

Established History
One surprise about Pakistan's software industry is that there are numerous well-established firms that have been in business here for a long time. Pakistani IT firms have been quietly doing work for international clients such as Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) , Wal-Mart, and Fry's Electronics while those clients' slower competitors follow the herd into Pakistan's neighbor.

The oldest international outsourcing firm in Pakistan is Solutions, which started providing payroll-processing services in 1977 and now builds and customizes mortgage processing and escrow software.

A host of hardware support firms and ISPs have long histories in Pakistan too. International technology firms have generally not bothered to set up permanent support operations here. They have made minimal marketing efforts in Pakistan, or have done so indirectly, through languid Indian offices with no interest in selling or supporting anything in Pakistan.

How To Export to Pakistan
American firms seem clueless about marketing to Pakistan, constantly repeating the same strategic mistakes. Red Hat (Nasdaq: RHAT) , for example, by selling to Pakistan through India, has seriously undermined its market potential in this country. Red Hat's Indian office reportedly hoards marketing funds and research and development resources. It also refuses to sell the full range of Red Hat products to firms in Pakistan.

Symantec's (Nasdaq: SYMC) arrangement of selling to Pakistan through South Africa is another example of marketing ineffectuality.

American firms need to make direct sales relationships with distributors in Pakistan. Otherwise, they will continue to abandon the market to local firms and to the Europeans. Hiring non-resident Indians (NRIs) in the U.S. to head sales and marketing efforts directed at Pakistan invites problems.

Domestic Focus
Home grown IT service firms in Pakistan have tended to focus on the domestic market. A good example is ZRG.com. This Karachi-based firm builds and sells its own automated call distributors (ACDs), interactive voice response units (IVRs), recording devices, and other call handling solutions.

ZRG.com has never worked on a project that involved having its corporate customers make or receive calls outside of Pakistan. The scale of the projects that they have been involved in has also been small. ZRG's largest call center project to date is 225 seats.

Other Pakistani firms have taken U.S. products and provided ad-ons to make them faster and cheaper to use, as ArwenTech.com has done with Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) routers.

E-Commerce
One firm to watch is InfiniLogic.com, which provides content to more than 4,500 e-commerce Web sites around the globe. Their sales people work closely with their technical staff to help make sure that clients' expectations are met. They hired overseas Pakistanis returning from the U.S., whose Americanized speech often causes clients to think they are dealing with a U.S. firm.

To expand their international presence, InfiniLogic's COO Ayub Khan went to a language school in Karachi and asked two German language instructors there to join his German language services section. To convince them, Ayub offered the instructors twice what they were making as teachers.

Ayub has turned down opportunities for mid-level or low-level call center work, preferring to focus on his firm's core e-commerce capabilities. It was a surprise to hear Ayub's perfect English accent, acquired growing up and working in England.

Competitive Position
Karachi's biggest surprise came at e-commerce infrastructure firm Etilize.com. When I asked their cofounder and CTO, Aamir Baig, who he was competing against, I expected that we were going to have "the India conversation" again. Instead, Aamir responded by saying that his competitors are in Israel and the U.S. One is also in Russia.

"India last year had IT exports of [US]$10 billion to $14 billion, whereas Israel had $35 billion," Aamir said, adding that Israel's population is only about 7 million people, including Palestinians. India, in comparison, has more than 1 billion people.

Aamir said that his firm is not going to compete with India for low-end work. Instead, he competes with firms in the U.S. and Israel -- on the basis of brainpower.

Aamir has lived most of his life in the U.S., although he was born in Pakistan. Hip, handsome and well spoken, I asked him why he had chosen to move away from the U.S. and locate his e-commerce firm in Karachi.

"People are what it really boils down to," Aamir said, adding, "Pakistan was our natural first choice."

UnitedPakistan

June 4th, 2005, 08:55 AM

Gwadar!

http://www.visiongwadar.com/

http://www.visiongwadar.com/pic_pages/pictures/shore.jpg

http://www.visiongwadar.com/images/scroll.jpg

UnitedPakistan

June 4th, 2005, 08:56 AM

China's sea strategy

NEW HAVEN, Connecticut Five hundred and ninety years after a Chinese fleet cast anchor at Hormuz, the Chinese are back in the Arabian Sea. When Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China visited Pakistan last week, one of the many deals he signed was for the deepening of the port at Gwadar, whose Chinese-built facilities symbolize China's return to an area that was, briefly, a playground for its navy.
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The port's projected size and strategic location have sent ripples of anxiety through Washington, Tokyo and New Delhi about the potential establishment of a permanent Chinese naval presence near the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world's oil passes.
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For the sake of regional stability, Beijing should forgo any ambitions to use Gwadar for its naval vessels. Yet China has valid reasons to help develop a commercial port that other powers must accept. Its return to the Indian Ocean is the logical outcome of its blazing economic growth, which the West has encouraged, applauded and profited from. A China that depends increasingly on imported oil transported great distances can justifiably seek commercial refueling and repair facilities, just as European powers dependent on far-flung coaling stations for their ships did in the 19th century.
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For a brief time in the 15th century, China had the means, but no deep-rooted rationale, for overseas expansion. The Middle Kingdom's maritime glory can be traced to the personal enthusiasm of a single ruler, the Ming emperor Yongle, who dispatched 63 vessels to the Indian Ocean in seven waves. China's first and thus far only blue-water navy consisted of multimasted ships weighing 1,500 tons - Vasco da Gama's weighed only 300 tons - and carried 27,500 men up to the Gulf and Africa's eastern shore.
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Aside from battling pirates and pretenders to the throne, the fleet served primarily as a propaganda vehicle for the emperor. Chinese sailors dazzled Asian states with their technological and military prowess, transported barbarian envoys and brought home exotic products. But the expeditions ended as suddenly as they had begun. By the time the Portuguese Navy appeared in the Indian Ocean in 1497, the Chinese had already gone home.
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This time, China's thirst for energy is dictating its turn to the Indian Ocean and the Gulf. Since 1993 China has been a net oil importer; as its need has grown, so has its dependence on oil from the Middle East. Eighty percent of China's oil imports pass through the Malacca Straits, the closing of which would wreak havoc upon the Chinese economy. To reduce this dependence, China has been building alternative supply routes through Myanmar and Pakistan. A road, and eventually a pipeline, from Gwadar could give China an alternative energy route that it urgently needs and spur the development of its westernmost provinces. Hence its plan to provide more than $1 billion in aid and loan guarantees for building at Gwadar.
.
China's search for energy security also dovetails, however, with its long-term strategic effort to expand its regional influence and box in India. Analysts see Chinese-operated listening posts in Myanmar's Coco Islands, China's support for a port near Yangon for handling 10,000-ton ships (of which the Burmese have only a few) and another deep-water port at Kyaukpyu in western Myanmar, Chinese aid to the Bangladeshi port of Chittagong and plans to improve Cambodia's Sihanoukville as part of an incremental effort to build a "string of pearls" presence on the Indian Ocean rim.
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Many believe it is only a matter of time before the Chinese Navy, much strengthened by recent purchases of ships and technology, arrives in Gwadar. Pakistani officials boast that Gwadar's Chinese connection will help to frustrate India's domination of regional waterways. A maritime presence in the area would enable China to monitor naval patrols by the United States and protect Chinese sea lines of communication. China Economic Net, an online news outlet sponsored by China's leading business paper, calls Gwadar "China's biggest harvest."

JARdan

June 5th, 2005, 02:23 AM

New York
Toronto
London
Los Angeles
Paris
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Beijing
New Delhi
Calgary/Edmonton (depending on what is made of the Alberta Tar Sands: 1.5 Trillion+ barrels of oil)

DrJoe

June 5th, 2005, 03:07 AM

Calgary/Edmonton is not going to happen.

JARdan

June 5th, 2005, 04:06 AM

Calgary/Edmonton is not going to happen.
Why not?

marathon

June 5th, 2005, 04:09 AM

New York
Tokyo
London
Moscow
Beijing
Chicago
Frankfurt
Paris
Toronto
Hong Kong

ab041937

September 18th, 2005, 12:12 AM

New York(Greatest city to live in.. atleast till 2120 AD)
London
Tokyo
Dubai
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Paris
Mumbai
Beijing
Tel Aviv

london-b

September 18th, 2005, 12:22 AM

New York(Greatest city to live in.. atleast till 2120 AD)
London
Tokyo
Dubai
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Paris
Mumbai
Beijing
Tel Aviv

I don't even think NY is the greatest city to live in now.

cello1974

September 18th, 2005, 01:07 AM

London, NYC, Frankfurt, Shanghai, Beijing, Mumbai, São Paulo, Madrid, Moscow, Tokyo, Paris, in no specific order... And only in terms of economy...

tiger

September 18th, 2005, 01:15 AM

Dubai
DUbai
DUBai
DUBAi
DUBAI
DuBai
DuBAi
DuBAI
DubAI
DubaI

A.Reece

September 18th, 2005, 01:20 AM

New York
Chicago
Tokyo
Shanghai
Dubai
Hong Kong
London
Frankfurt
Beijing
Mumbai

Maybe Paris,Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Madrid.. :|

wjfox

September 18th, 2005, 01:25 AM

tiger

September 18th, 2005, 01:26 AM

cello1974

September 18th, 2005, 01:28 AM

A boring and disappointing thread.
Yes, but we ARE boring!!!!

sfenn1117

September 18th, 2005, 01:59 AM

No order except #1

New York- Most important business city in the worlds lone superpower. Of course it's #1
London- Will always be near the top
Paris- Same as London
Hong Kong- Continues to grow
Washington- Most important center of government in the world
Shanghai- Most important city in China
Tokyo- Arguably the most important city in the Far East
Moscow- It's growing baby.
Sao Paulo- Most important in SA.
Mumbai- I don't know everyone else says it.

LA is not an important world city. Chicago is way way above it. LA just has a lot of people, a lot of movie stars. It's a famous city, but not important for the world. Chicago would be #11 on my list.

I laugh when I see Dubai. Give me reasons please. A few big skyscrapers? Big Deal. When they start to nab huge corporations and the name Dubai actually becomes known, then I'll buy it.

addisonwesley

September 18th, 2005, 02:15 AM

This is all assuming the world continues to operate as it does today, with no major economic disasters.

ab041937

September 18th, 2005, 02:33 AM

A boring and disappointing thread.

I've yet to see anyone give any reasons or arguments for any of their choices.

It's just list after list of cities, with no comments or explanations from anyone. How about some discussion and debate?

Ok lemme justify my choice

1) New York - The most cosmospolitan and decorated city in the world with people from all corners of the the world. Most of the New Yorkers cannot call themselves Pure ethnic Americans. Not to mention, its the richest city in the world with GDP of $500 billion(More than most of the countries).

2) London - Currently, the most important European city and will continue to be so.

3) Tokyo - Nobody would doubt the importance of the Japenese capital. Home to some of the biggest technological giants.

4) Dubai - Fastest growing city in the world. Last 10 years have changed the face of this city. Imagine what another 15 years would do if the pace is maintained. Though, its pure contemplation yet.

5) Shanghai - Another rapidly advancing city, inviting lot of business every year.

6) Hong Kong - Need I say about the current financial capital of Asia. It will hold its glory.

7) Paris - Current fashion capital of the world.

8) Mumbai - Fastest growing city in South Asia. Inviting IT outsourcing business from across the world.Currently the only South Asian city which can match Western cities in terms of Work culture.

9) Beijing - Future Center of Power in Asia.

10) Tel Aviv - Don't know why... maybe, I was running outta choices.

wjfox

September 18th, 2005, 02:39 AM

What about when the oil runs out in Dubai?

SUNNI

September 18th, 2005, 03:26 AM

What about when the oil runs out in Dubai?
i think they are trying to transform dubai into a major port city in the middle east :?

pottebaum

September 18th, 2005, 04:48 AM

abo, Tokyo is actually the richest city in the world.

Jaye101

September 18th, 2005, 05:19 AM

due to pop explosion in Lagos, Nigeria - it will be 87,000,000 (Metro pop), and plus the high development that will be there in 2020.

:eek2:

United-States-of-America

September 18th, 2005, 05:38 AM

^^ Population and importance are different things.

Butcher

September 18th, 2005, 06:05 AM

In no order:
London
New York
Chicago
LA
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Tokyo
Beijing
Paris
And 10th is up for grabs, mabye between Toronto, Dubai, Seoul, Singapore, or Frankfurt.

silly thing

September 18th, 2005, 06:11 AM

1)New York
2)Hong Kong
3)Tokyo
4)London
5)Seoul
6)Shanghai
7)Paris
8)Chicago
9)LA
10)Singapore

datilguy

September 18th, 2005, 07:01 AM

1.SAO PAULO, BRAZIL-I believe that with its huge size and population growth, as well as the economic upsurge Brazil is experiencing, it is set to become the South American Powerhouse. Buenos Aires might give it a run for the money though.

boto_mix

September 18th, 2005, 09:38 AM

In no order:
New York
Tokyo
Hong Kong
London
Paris
Moscow
Bruessels
Seoul
Shanghai
Madrid

Plus maybe LA, Shanghai, singapore...

Sinjin P.

September 18th, 2005, 09:40 AM

Manila (philippines) deserves a spot as the only Catholic country in asia.

fcom1

September 18th, 2005, 10:19 AM

London
Tokyo
New york
Shangai
Paris
Hong kong
Milan
Moscow
Cairo
Delhi

RobinBad

September 18th, 2005, 12:22 PM

i strongly believe that by 2020 Tel-Aviv will be in top 10 list

smussuw

September 18th, 2005, 12:45 PM

What about when the oil runs out in Dubai?

http://tinypic.com/dqro9k.jpg
http://www.dcci.ae/contents.asp?page=GDP

If ur talking about the UAE then it needs about 100 year until the oil finish.

If ur talking about Dubai then u should know that Dubai has only 4 billion barrels. It contribute 6% of Dubai's GDP in 2005.

End of the discussion.

Naga_Solidus

September 18th, 2005, 01:00 PM

No real order:

BosWash, i.e. Boston+NYC+Washington (it's the financial center of the USA mixed with the American capital and sprawled up to the home of MIT, 'nuff said)

Pearl River Delta Sprawl, i.e. Hong Kong+Shenzen+Guangzhou (come on, it's the financial center of the entire Asia-Pacific region)

Shanghai supermetro (Well, China is rising like mad)

Beijing supermetro (It's the Chinese capital, 'nuff said)

Tokyo-Yokohama (It's utramodern now, and it will still be ultramodern in 2020)

SoCal, i.e. LA+Santa Barabra+San Diego(I don't see Hollywood going down anytime soon, plus LA has a number of car design studios, and Santa Barbara has a lot of tourism potential, etc etc.)

London-Paris sprawl (it isn't all that unrealistic given the chunnel and stuff)

Mumbai-Thane-Navi Mumbai-Pune (May be the world's largest megalopolis, connectivity in the area is improving like mad, and let's not forget the region's intellectual capital)

Golden Triangle, i.e. Delhi NCR+Agra+Jaipur (Yeah the distances involved are phenomenal but hey with things like air travel going through a boom in India, who knows, maybe air travel will one day become as common as bus travel)

Sao Paulo-Rio (See above, indeed the distances involved are actually a little shorter than the ones above, more importantly Brazil is rising up)

qt_bi

September 18th, 2005, 01:52 PM

tokyo
london
paris
mumbai
karachi
shanghai
dubai
new york
lahore
sydney

lol lots of pakistani cities!

NY
Tokyo
London
Paris
Seoul
Shanghai
Dubai
Singapore
HK

909

September 18th, 2005, 02:07 PM

In no order:

London
Tokyo
New York
Paris
Osaka
Shanghai
Beijing
Seoul
Los Angeles
Moscow

No cities in south-Asia, no cities in Latin-America and the Arabian world would make it on that list the next 20 years.

Mo Rush

September 18th, 2005, 03:36 PM

the usuals with some emerging cities:

your new yorks, london, paris, dubai, tokyo,shanghai, hong kong, beijing

add in some rio de janeiro, cape town (possible 2020 olympic games host), and sydney

Bahnsteig4

September 18th, 2005, 04:14 PM

Dubai, Beijing, SHanghai, HK, Singapore, Delhi, Guangzhou, Tokyo, Cairo.

909

September 18th, 2005, 04:31 PM

A lot of people are suggesting that Dubai will become one of the most important cities in the near future. A opinion based on what? Tourism, the building boom or emerging economic, cultural and political importance?
This is no Dubai bashing, but to be honest, i don't see any reason why Dubai will make it next to cities like London or Tokyo. I believe that Dubai will be a great city, but except tourism not important or influential on a global level.

ab041937

September 18th, 2005, 06:20 PM

Dubai, Beijing, SHanghai, HK, Singapore, Delhi, Guangzhou, Tokyo, Cairo.

All ASIAN cities!!!!

What about New York, London & other American & European cities????????

bnbmq

September 18th, 2005, 07:13 PM

Dubai
DUbai
DUBai
DUBAi
DUBAI
DuBai
DuBAi
DuBAI
DubAI
DubaI

LOL. it is pretty good.

OREO

September 18th, 2005, 07:48 PM

imo, there are so many weird choices.

bnbmq

September 18th, 2005, 08:09 PM

sraey 01 ni iahgnahs.
srAey 01 nI iahgnaHs
sraey net ni iahgnahs.
SraeY nEt Ni iahGnahS.

How about this? tiger lol.

Effer

September 18th, 2005, 08:16 PM

no order:

Shanghai
Mumbai
Dubai
New York City
London
Paris
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Seoul
Chicago

SHiRO

September 18th, 2005, 09:03 PM

This is getting increasingly stupid...

malec

September 19th, 2005, 12:31 AM

In 2020 the 10 most important cities will be the same as now give or take 1 or 2. Aswell Dubai won't make the list. Even if it's developments are a complete success it still wouldn't make the top 10 simply because it won't have as much influence. Aswell it's far too small compared to the rest.

SHiRO

September 19th, 2005, 01:17 AM

Finally some sense...

PhilippeMtl

September 19th, 2005, 07:13 PM

No particular order.

-Shenzhen
-Shangai
-New Delhi
-Los Angeles
-London
-Tokyo
-Taipai
-Berlin
-Paris
-New York

steppenwolf

September 20th, 2005, 12:29 AM

Considering most of those cities will be UNDER WATER due to global warming, and all the rapidly expanding chinese cities will be unlivable becasue they have been so badly planned with no consideration that people need to enjoy living in a human environment My top ten are:

Mumbai
Paris
Chicago It will have a huge dam to keep Lake Michigan low, new York has sunk too as have all the coastal cities -
Birmingham, England - The new capital of the UK (London has been drowned, Manchester would be, better but the gulf stream has shut down and the north is too cold)
Osaka
Berlin
Seoul
Baghdad
Sao Paulo
Shanghai Another one saved from the rising sea by a massive and expensive civil engineering project but still slowly sinking

cello1974

September 20th, 2005, 12:35 AM

This is getting increasingly stupid...
Stupid? Even worse than that, Cairo is one of the 'best' cities cited! The city will run out of water in the next decades, the country is poor, the city even worse, I don't know why people think it mught be one of the top 10 in 2020!!! :runaway: :runaway: :runaway: :runaway: :runaway: :runaway: :runaway:

ab041937

September 20th, 2005, 12:50 AM

centralized pandemonium

September 20th, 2005, 01:41 AM

^^^ If anything, Mumbai is also a coastal city and it could also face the music due to the global warming :bash:.

Fusionist

September 20th, 2005, 01:49 AM

I don't know about 2020 but by 2040..

Dubai
Shanghai
New York
San Francisco
Seoul
Mumbai
Shenzen
Jakarta
Mir
Istanbul
New Chennai

cello1974

September 20th, 2005, 01:51 AM

Fusionist, your list makes me lough!!! Shenzhen, Dubai and Chennai! Shenzhen should at first get more important than Beijing or Tianjin! Well, your whole list is rubbish!

ab041937

September 20th, 2005, 02:00 AM

I don't know about 2020 but by 2040..

Dubai
Shanghai
New York
San Francisco
Seoul
Mumbai
Shenzen
Jakarta
Mir
Istanbul
New Chennai

Mir? Where in the world is it?

Effer

September 20th, 2005, 02:05 AM

^^^ If anything, Mumbai is also a coastal city and it could also face the music due to the global warming :bash:.
And don't forget about the recent floodings.

E=mc²

September 20th, 2005, 02:10 AM

Thats the problem of you people.. you consider those cities that are not even an inch impact on the world... How come nobody's list is New York, London, Paris and Tokyo? They will always be the important cities in the world even in the next century yet you guys forgotten them.. How naive

IshikawajimaHarima

September 20th, 2005, 03:37 AM

full of jokes

jiggawhat?

September 20th, 2005, 04:13 AM

In order:
1)NYC
2)Hong Kong
3)Tokyo
4)London
5)Paris
6)sao paulo
7)Los Angeles
8)shanghai
9)Moscow
10)mumbai

Plex

September 20th, 2005, 04:47 AM

NYC
London
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Mexico City
Paris
Los Angeles
Shanghai
Moscow
Frankfurt

PhilippeMtl

September 20th, 2005, 05:02 AM

Fusionist, your list makes me lough!!! Shenzhen, Dubai and Chennai! Shenzhen should at first get more important than Beijing or Tianjin! Well, your whole list is rubbish!

Shenzhen is growing at more than 750 000 per year....

c0kelitr0

September 20th, 2005, 05:03 AM

IMO

New York City
London
Paris
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Shanghai
Buenos Aires
Frankfurt
Chicago
Seoul

boto_mix

September 20th, 2005, 07:24 PM

Shenzhen is growing at more than 750 000 per year....
Ahhh, and it is good?

cello1974

September 20th, 2005, 11:34 PM

Shenzhen is growing at more than 750 000 per year....
And pop growth makes a city automatically more important? So why isn't Dhaka one of the world's most important cities?

MikeHunt

September 21st, 2005, 01:02 AM

New York
London
Paris
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Los Angeles
Beijing
Shanghai
Washington, DC
Mumbai

Harkeb

September 23rd, 2005, 04:44 AM

if South Africa's economy keeps on growing, and at 5-6%, Johannesburg might well be up there!

mexicaninmontreal

September 23rd, 2005, 04:51 AM

IMHO and in no specific order:
New York
Mexico City
Sao Paulo
Paris
London
Shanghai
Mumbai
Tokyo
Los Angeles
Toronto

beijinggreg

September 23rd, 2005, 10:51 AM

1)NYC
2)London
3)Shanghai
4)Tokyo
5) Mumbai
6) Beijing
7) Los Angeles
8) Paris
9) Hong Kong/Shenzhen (by then it will be hard to seperate these two)
10) Mexico City

bustero

September 23rd, 2005, 01:16 PM

Depends how we define importance.
Economic, Political, Iconic
Some world cities are more important for their idea than actual ability to influence events around the world.
2020 is also very close by I would not think there would be too much change from the current pecking order

4 World Capitals
NY, Paris, London, Tokyo

Plus
Regional or Specialized World Cities
LA- media center, plus increasingly perhaps the most important hispanic city
Shanghai - Window to China , HK - World Money center city, but may fade the stronger Shangai becomes, of course Beijing, where the strings of both cities are actually being pulled.
Mumbai - Most important city in South Asia but again Delhi's decsions affects a catchment basin of 1.8 billion people.

hitoomi1984

September 24th, 2005, 01:50 PM

1)NYC
2)Shanghai
3)Hong Kong
4)Tokyo
5) Shenzhen
6) Beijing
7) Seoul
8) Paris
9) London
10) Sao Paulo

ChicagoSkyline

September 26th, 2005, 07:37 AM

1)NYC
2)London
3)Paris
4)Tokyo
5)Chicago
6)Shanghai
7)HK
8)Frankfurt
9)LA
10)Toronto

cello1974

September 27th, 2005, 01:25 AM

China will become one of the biggest economies, which doesn't mean, that it will have half of the most important cities!!! So today there should be half of them US cities!

ThirdCoast312

September 27th, 2005, 02:09 AM

I say based on current developments and trends such as GDP growth, pop growth, immigration growth, and construction that the top ten cities will be ....

1.) London
2.) Shanghi
3.) Tokyo
4.) New York
5.) Sao Paulo
6.) Dubai
7.) Lagos
8.) Mumbai
9.) Hong Kong
10.) Paris

cello1974

September 27th, 2005, 02:11 AM

OMG!!! Lagos, where 75% of the people live in slums, only 35% of the streets are paved, with a huge possibility of a civil war in future!!! THIS is a joke! Dubai??? Neither São Paulo or Istanbul!!!

pottebaum

September 27th, 2005, 02:32 AM

New York
London
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Paris
Chicago
Shanghai
Los Angeles
Mumbai
Washington DC

ChicagoSkyline

September 27th, 2005, 03:18 AM

ab041937

September 27th, 2005, 08:35 AM

Bangalore, India is growing at over 12% per annum for over a decade. It is India's silicon valley & employs more manpower than Silicon Valley, California itself. Last year, Bangalore exported over $ 6.5 Bln worth of Software & software related services. State govt. has already anoounced several Infrastructure related projects like setting up Monorail n/w, MUTP etc, Growth is bound to pick up. Maybe, not in 2020 but by 2030 it could be amongst the top ten cities in the world.

vinta

September 27th, 2005, 01:52 PM

china : hongkong and shanghai, on economic, especially they can produce a competable item and sell it even cheaper :) :)

cello1974

September 28th, 2005, 01:30 AM

New York
London
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Paris
Chicago
Shanghai
Los Angeles
Mumbai
Washington DC
This is the sanest of all lists shown here! :)

vertigosufferer

September 29th, 2005, 09:26 PM

Yes I agree with that.

tuten

September 29th, 2005, 10:22 PM

i think tht sao paulo will definatly be in the top 10 :)

SHiRO

September 29th, 2005, 10:27 PM

New York
London
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Paris
Chicago
Shanghai
Los Angeles
Mumbai
Washington DC
This is the sanest of all lists shown here! :)
Exept for Washington and Mumbai it is.
Singapore and Milan would be better choices.
Otherwise Frankfurt, Madrid, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Moscow, Toronto, Sydney and Seoul before Washington and Mumbai.

Roch5220

September 29th, 2005, 10:39 PM

No Order

Shanghai
New York
London
Frankfurt
LA
Sao Paulo
Tokyo
2 cities of the following 3 (Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Singapore)
1 city out of (San Fran or Chicago)

The reason why 2 of 3, theres not enough regional power to go around, hence, a city or 2 will gain at the expense of the remaining.

I think another US city will be in the Mix, hence either SF or Chicago as obvious candiates. Chicago is definately a top 10 city currently.

Others that may make the list at the expense of others - Paris, Istanbul (maybe the darkhorse of the bunch), Sydney, Toronto, and possible, maybe Seoul as the longshot?

Evangelion

September 29th, 2005, 10:58 PM

neilio

September 30th, 2005, 12:06 AM

In No order

London
HongKong
NewYork
Chicago
Toronto
LA
Tokyo
Paris
Singapore
Shanghai

mongozx

October 2nd, 2005, 10:39 PM

In terms of Global influence. The top 5 are obvious (New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong, London, Paris)

In no order Washington DC, Shanghai, Los Angeles should be in the top 10.

But barely anyone mentions San Francisco and the Bay Area. The last time I checked Silicon Valley is in there and that's the place where all new technologies (ie internet, computer/electronics, cell phone, biotech etc etc) are innovated.
The whole world, even Tokyo, looks at this area to see what the future is going to be. Add to the fact that San Francisco is as famous, internationally recognized and as cosmopolitan as any world city. . .it definitely should get a nod on anyone's list. IMO

Roch5220

October 3rd, 2005, 04:15 PM

i think seoul will probably be in the top 10, with current trends korea alone is supposed to be the 8th largest economy by 2050, i'd add a link to the source but i don't know where it is, its around the forum somewhere

Possibly, but you have to look at other regional cities that seoul will compete with. They will be going up against regional heavy weights that are already established.

aranetacoliseum

October 3rd, 2005, 05:20 PM

2020?
(in no particular order)

1.dubai
2.hongkong
3.shanghai
4.mumbai
5.kuala lumpur
6.tokyo
7.new delhi
8.manila
9.new york
10.singapore

IshikawajimaHarima

October 3rd, 2005, 05:31 PM

2020?
(in no particular order)

1.dubai
2.hongkong
3.shanghai
4.mumbai
5.kuala lumpur
6.tokyo
7.new delhi
8.manila
9.new york
10.singapore

Nine tenth of your listed cities are asian. interesting.

SHiRO

October 3rd, 2005, 07:38 PM

And 1/2 of it is utter bullshit... :lol:

909

October 3rd, 2005, 07:45 PM

Some people here are not aware of the past of even the present world. The fact that some cities are developing doesn't mean they will become important, or even more important than economic powerhouses like London or NY for example.

brooklynprospect

October 3rd, 2005, 09:31 PM

NYC
London
HK or Shanghai (depends on who comes out on top in China)
Tokyo
LA
Paris
HK or Shanghai (the less important of the two)
SF Bay Area (no one gives enough props to the tech/R&D center of the planet)
Mumbai

An good argument could be made for placing Washington (and in the future perhaps Beijing, but not in 15 years) on top, but since the city's power is almost completely limited to politics, I've left it out.

brooklynprospect

October 3rd, 2005, 09:42 PM

Possibly, but you have to look at other regional cities that seoul will compete with. They will be going up against regional heavy weights that are already established.

Seoul is the capital of a country with 50 million people, in the low end of the 1st world, and with one of the world's lowest birthrates and fastest aging populations. There's no way it will be in the top ten in 15 or 20 years. It will be lucky to keep the relative importance it has now.

Korea might, if it's lucky (and other countries fail), be the 10th largest economy in the world in 2020, but you have to remember that some of the other 9 largest economies may have more than one city each in the top 10. The number 10 economy in the world is very very far away from the number 1 or 2 economies...

rokey1140

October 3rd, 2005, 11:38 PM

Seoul is the capital of a country with 50 million people, in the low end of the 1st world, and with one of the world's lowest birthrates and fastest aging populations. There's no way it will be in the top ten in 15 or 20 years. It will be lucky to keep the relative importance it has now.

Korea might, if it's lucky (and other countries fail), be the 10th largest economy in the world in 2020, but you have to remember that some of the other 9 largest economies may have more than one city each in the top 10. The number 10 economy in the world is very very far away from the number 1 or 2 economies...

already, The South Korea is 10th largest economy in the world(2004s) .
and. not 50 million people, it is 48 million people.

brooklynprospect

October 4th, 2005, 01:43 AM

already, The South Korea is 10th largest economy in the world(2004s) .
and. not 50 million people, it is 48 million people.

Actually, it was 11th in 2004. http://news.naver.com/news/read.php?mode=LSS2D&office_id=011&article_id=0000094352&section_id=101&section_id2=263&menu_id=101

And as a relatively developed economy with a rapidly aging population (and soon to be shrinking workforce), it's very likely to be overtaken by the likes of Mexico, Brazil, Russia...

CENTRAL

October 4th, 2005, 06:00 AM

the US will have 3:
New York
LA
Chicago

China will have 3
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Beijing

Europe will have 2
London (for sure)
Paris or moscow

India will have one
Mumbai

and Japan will have one
Totyo

CENTRAL

October 4th, 2005, 06:04 AM

The major players will be the north america(major,stable), asia(major,growing) and europe(semi-major and declining) in 2020.
no cities in the rest of world will be top 10 as they are away from the centre of the world.

great prairie

October 4th, 2005, 08:38 AM

SF Bay Area (no one gives enough props to the tech/R&D center of the

the dotcom bust around the turn of the century really hurt the bay area, more then most are willing to adimt.... if the housing bubble pops SF is fucked.

IshikawajimaHarima

October 4th, 2005, 11:25 AM

the US will have 3:
New York
LA
Chicago

China will have 3
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Beijing

Europe will have 2
London (for sure)
Paris or moscow

India will have one
Mumbai

and Japan will have one
Totyo

China will never have 3 of the top 10. If you put Beijing politically, US cities must grow into 4. Besides HK is still the HK dollar world, it separates from China economically. I would nominate Singapore as the hub of South Asia instead of Beijing. btw China will still be a third world country even in 2020. Anyway don't set your mind to the US so much and don't turn this thread into country vs country at your discretion.

staff

October 4th, 2005, 12:21 PM

Dubai will never be one of the world's 10 most important cities. Never.

CENTRAL

October 4th, 2005, 12:31 PM

China will never have 3 of the top 10. If you put Beijing politically, US cities must grow into 4. Besides HK is still the HK dollar world, it separates from China economically. I would nominate Singapore as the hub of South Asia instead of Beijing. btw China will still be a third world country even in 2020. Anyway don't set your mind to the US so much and don't turn this thread into country vs country at your discretion.

beijing together with tianjin will form a super metro in 2020, with the population of 30 million, and donimate the north east asia economically.

i never told you hongkong economically belongs to china, although hong kong's economy highly depends on china. but respect the fact, hong kong is a part of china, this is recognised globally.

although i am a resident of singapore, but after a careful consideration, I pull singapore out of top 10, just because of its small size.

by the way, i dont think china is in the 3rd world even now. the developed countries will never feel anxious of the challange from the real 3rd world. china is definitely leading the 2nd world and will upgrade to the 1st before 2020.

i was not misdirecting this topic into a country vs country thread, just gave my logic of answer.

hope it helps u to learn something. :cheers:

SHiRO

October 4th, 2005, 01:42 PM

it is not necessary to type in anything other then normal font...

IshikawajimaHarima

October 4th, 2005, 01:57 PM

@ central

But farmers in China can't move to the city freely. It means poor people won't reduce in 15 years.

Intoxication

October 4th, 2005, 01:58 PM

CENTRAL

October 4th, 2005, 02:15 PM

@ central

But farmers in China can't move to the city freely. It means poor people won't reduce in 15 years.
1, they can move
2, moving into cities dose not correlate to the decrease of poverty.
3, chinese farmers' income is rising quickly (6% annually), however ppl in cities are getting rich even faster (arround 10%)

CENTRAL

October 4th, 2005, 02:18 PM

it is not necessary to type in anything other then normal font...
then why these interesting functions are designed right there?
they are for ppl to use

CENTRAL

October 4th, 2005, 02:36 PM

LosAngelesSportsFan

October 5th, 2005, 01:26 AM

In no particular order

1.NY
2.London
3.Paris
4.HK
5.Beijing
6.Shanghai
7.Dubai
8.Tokyo

9 and 10 between
Singapore, Seoul, Sao Paolo, Mumbai, Karachi, Istanbul, Moscow, maybe Gwadar - a small coastal fishing village right now, Look at United Pakistan's post.

How do you leave the fastest growing city in America (in total pop gain) off your list? LA people, is in the top 5 for sure, if for no other reason than Hollywood, and then you add in the 470 Billion dollar economy of the city, 800 billion dollar economy of the metro, the worlds third busiest port, 5th busiest airport, all the attractions,etc etc and you have a super world powerhouse.

IshikawajimaHarima

October 5th, 2005, 02:00 AM

Skyscraper_guy is of course thinking of only skyscrapers ( w

brooklynprospect

October 5th, 2005, 02:51 AM

the dotcom bust around the turn of the century really hurt the bay area, more then most are willing to adimt.... if the housing bubble pops SF is fucked.

The bursting of the dotcom bubble no doubt hurt the Bay Area economy, but it nevertheless remains by far the largest tech/R&D center on the planet. In terms of new technologies, companies based, and research, nowhere else comes close. Not Bangalore, not Tokyo.

great prairie

October 5th, 2005, 03:22 AM

I definitely agree about the size but the # jobs/salaries there hasn't followed the rising house prices... lots of outsourcing to Bangalore.

Aren't most of the Tech companies in San Jose?

ROCguy

October 5th, 2005, 03:35 AM

How do you leave the fastest growing city in America (in total pop gain) off your list? LA people, is in the top 5 for sure, if for no other reason than Hollywood, and then you add in the 470 Billion dollar economy of the city, 800 billion dollar economy of the metro, the worlds third busiest port, 5th busiest airport, all the attractions,etc etc and you have a super world powerhouse.

LA isn't the fastest growing city in population, there you go making up statistics. Phoenix and New York are both ahead of LA in net population gain. lol, again, much of the growth in Phoenix is from former residents of Los Angeles moving there. Los Angeles, and New York City, are both growing pretty much only from immigration.

great prairie

October 5th, 2005, 03:49 AM

Los Angeles is the fastest growing in raw population, Phoenix is the leader in percentage. DFW, Atlanta, NYC and Houston all gained more then Phoenix

ROCguy

October 5th, 2005, 04:25 AM

brooklynprospect

October 5th, 2005, 06:47 AM

It is the other way around. They had a whole article about this in the Raleigh News&Observer. It's main point was that Raleigh was growing by more people than any other city east of the Mississippi, except for New York. And it then went on to say that Phoenix gained the most nationwide in raw numbers, and second in percentage (Las Vegas is first). Los Angeles is probably at least in the top 5 for raw numbers, probably 3rd after Phoenix and New York, but not number 1.

LA city isn't growing much, but the LA metro (with its 16-17 million people) has been posting the largest population increases in absolute numbers this decade. Much/most of this growth has actually been in the outlying Riverside/San Bernadino suburbs.

And whatever you feel about LA's car-centric development model, the metro is hugely influential, largely because of its global leadership in entertainment. Yes there are other subsectors (the world's largest auto design hub, import/export, strong in aerospace...), but the entertainment industry is really what puts LA on the map. After all, internationally, LA/Hollywood is one of the most famous places in the world.

brooklynprospect

October 5th, 2005, 06:52 AM

I definitely agree about the size but the # jobs/salaries there hasn't followed the rising house prices... lots of outsourcing to Bangalore.

Aren't most of the Tech companies in San Jose?

San Jose is part of the Bay Area. When people refer to the SF Bay Area, they include San Jose, Sunnyvale, Palo Alto, etc.

And yes there has been a lot of outsourcing, but at the end of the day, in 2005, the SF Bay Area is still the most important tech/R&D center in the world. Bangalore, for all the hype, is still basically an IT/outsourcing sweatshop. Maybe that will change in the future, but it hasn't yet. No new technologies have yet come from there.

LosAngelesSportsFan

October 5th, 2005, 10:01 AM

LA isn't the fastest growing city in population, there you go making up statistics. Phoenix and New York are both ahead of LA in net population gain. lol, again, much of the growth in Phoenix is from former residents of Los Angeles moving there. Los Angeles, and New York City, are both growing pretty much only from immigration.

im not making up stats, but i cant find the article(s) to back up my claim right now. as soon as i find it i will post it. Pheonix was number one by percentage, and NYC was not in the top five in raw gain.

DARKNIGHT

October 5th, 2005, 04:41 PM

Dubai will never be one of the world's 10 most important cities. Never.

U have to be on the top ten list of being the most negative forumer of Dubai, if not #1. I have read soo many threads where you go out of your way to put down Dubai, I don't know what your problem is. I'm not saying Dubai will be one of the world's 10 most important cities. It could be...i think it will definitely be top 25 imo.

Just control your negative comments please.

DARKNIGHT

October 5th, 2005, 05:09 PM

Oh sorry, i forgot to explain why I think Dubai will be in the top 25 for sure. Everyone knows about their crazy construction and amazing tourism. Not many people give credit for Dubai's growth in other areas...financial, manufacturing, and even though some people recognize their trade inudstry, not many people realize how big it actually is. There are also taking steps in uncharted territory. They are planning to open their own stock exchange (i know it definitely won't compete against the other major exchages, even in 2020, but it is a start). They are building culture related infrastructure such as operas house, dance studios, stages for plays and conerts, art galleries etc. Again this won't be spectacular compared to other cities but it is a start. I think their trade industry is about to explode. Their port is already one of the biggest and once the new expansion port is completed and fully operational, Dubai will have the biggest port in the world in the world. Once the new Jebel Ali airport city is completed (which till this day I am still in shock and awe at what they are planning) they will easily be trading in most volume of any other city in the world. I doubt they will ahve many major corporations setting up their home base in Dubai but we are already seeing many setting up their regional bases in Dubai and more are on the way via Internet City, DIFC etc. So couple being #1 in trading of goods, along with tourism and improvements in other aspects such as finance, cultural infrastructure, sports(trust me, they are going huge with this) and you definitely have the makings of a top 25 city.

As far as my top ten goes...i honestly can't even decide...there are too many great cities out there...and only time will tell which make it into the top 10!

Cheers everyone :cheers:

Avatar

October 5th, 2005, 05:15 PM

Most of you people are crazy with the projections. 2020 is not far away and to think some of the 3rd world cities you're suggesting will be world dominating powerhouses is ludicrous. You don't go cream of the crop alpha world city in a blink. Some of the cities mentioned wouldn't even make zeta world cities.

Another stupid myth some of you are assuming is ... that biggest is best and that a city must be the biggest to be the most powerful. I have never heard such crap. A city's power does not come from its population or the country's population - there are many mitigating factors that control the relative power a city exerts - population has an effect but it is not the deciding factor. Commonsence would tell you that by looking at where we are today.

The Indian cities will be nowhere by 2020 - many asian cities already have a vast lead on them and I dont see it changing. I don't see any Indian cities having any clout on the world stage by 2020. I think it would be unlikely to suggest they will be of sufficent maturity to compete with any of the alpha or beta cities we have today. Current cities are not standing still and all of them are growing. Some are also vastly more modern than any of the offerings in India.

To suggest anything in Africa would allude to people consuming datura.

Some of you relegate Singapore to the grave and have an unfavourable look at Hong Kong - in 15 years not much will change. Shanghai will have grown and its importance will grow with it, it may take some of the gloss but it wont amount to much. The Pearl River delta is a thriving area with Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong (one of the most amazing and growth driven regions in the world). It aint going to run out of puff anytime soon.

Sao Paulo might be a nice thought but in 15 years nothing will change much it into ranking either - too much needs to be addressed both in Brazil and in the city itself. Dubai is the same - anyway how is a tourist city going to be a "powerful city" Might as well say Surfers Paradise is up there with a chance or even Miami or Panama city. You guys are crazy.

IN 15 Years not alot is going to change - there might be some slight shifting and asian cities will increase in their rankings due to the roll on effect of China's increasing importance. Australia also stands to benefit strongly from this. It would be stupid to think Sydney would be as far back as 20th when its already listed as a top beta city.

Cities cannot suddenly aquire power and prestigue - it comes with time and 15 years is not long enough.

ROCguy

October 5th, 2005, 09:48 PM

im not making up stats, but i cant find the article(s) to back up my claim right now. as soon as i find it i will post it. Pheonix was number one by percentage, and NYC was not in the top five in raw gain.

Yes it was, you just don't want to admit it becaue you hate new york. Well i'm not a big fan of LA, but I would be the first to admit that it is in the top five for raw population growth. Sure did post that page didn't you? What are you making it up on your own webpage right now lol?

LosAngelesSportsFan

October 5th, 2005, 11:27 PM

Yes it was, you just don't want to admit it becaue you hate new york. Well i'm not a big fan of LA, but I would be the first to admit that it is in the top five for raw population growth. Sure did post that page didn't you? What are you making it up on your own webpage right now lol?

Wow you ahve a chip on your shoulder. when did i say i hate NY? by the way, what does the number of people added have to do with liking a city?

SHiRO

October 5th, 2005, 11:33 PM

centralized pandemonium

October 6th, 2005, 03:32 AM

The Indian cities will be nowhere by 2020 - many asian cities already have a vast lead on them and I dont see it changing. I don't see any Indian cities having any clout on the world stage by 2020. I think it would be unlikely to suggest they will be of sufficent maturity to compete with any of the alpha or beta cities we have today. Current cities are not standing still and all of them are growing. Some are also vastly more modern than any of the offerings in India.

This is the funniest shit I have ever heard on SSC. On one hand, people claim that China will have 2-3 cities in top 10 coz of their economic growth, but India won't have even a single city in top 10 despite its economic growth. Talk of double standards :|.

Either Delhi(henceforth reffered to as NCR) or Mumbai will be in the list by 2020. NCR's economy is pretty huge, with already quite a few automobile majors, electronics major, IT companies have shop here, and more in line. Plus the political power of Delhi is perhaps only rivalled by Beijing in Asia.

Mumbai area is also very important minus the political power. The slums notwithstanding, its financial power is huge.

Here is a fact abt the slums

THE TOTAL EXPORTS OF DHARAVI(BIGGEST SLUM OF MUMBAI) IS TO THE TUNE OF A BILLION $ US.

Just imagine, if a slum exports a billion dollars worth of goods, how much is the city exporting.

I am not so sure whether you guys are just plainly ignorant or are too into the sterotypes and refuse to acknowledge the rise of Indian cities, or for that matter other third world cities.

-Corey-

October 6th, 2005, 04:08 AM

In no order

1.New York
2.London
3.Shangai
4.Tokio
5.Los Angeles
6.Mexico City
7.Sao Paulo
8.Paris
9.Madrid
10.Moscow

and why not San Diego?
now the second in CA and sixth in the US

EnglishKevin

October 6th, 2005, 08:16 AM

1. Washington ( you said importance not fame or glamour )
2. Beijing
3. London
4. Moscow
5. Berlin
6. Tokyo
7. New Delhi
8. Brussels
9. Paris
10.Shanghai

EnglishKevin

October 6th, 2005, 08:26 AM

Finally some sense to counter all the nonsense. :okay:
Sometimes I do think this site is mainly inhabited by 12 year olds (nothing against some 12 year olds who do think straight).

Another thing that got me in this thread is the underestimation of Paris.
It's quite solid in the no 4 position and that isn't going to change very easily either.
----------------------------------------------

You need to calm down and stop taking this so seriously .

When making my choices I didn't pay much attention to things like culture , size , industry , media etc . I thought of importance in relation to poltical and economic/financial power and potential markets combined .

You need to be aware of the *RAPID* progress of ,most notably , China but also India . China is about to overtake the UK (very shortly) and USA in terms of GNP . It already makes our precentage growths look pitiful .

You should pay attention to the political aspect of this and not just shiny buildings .

Avatar

October 6th, 2005, 10:14 AM

I am not so sure whether you guys are just plainly ignorant or are too into the sterotypes and refuse to acknowledge the rise of Indian cities, or for that matter other third world cities.

I stand by what i say - by 2020 I will be surprised to see an alpha rated Indian metropolis. China is far more advanced than India in many ways. Shenzhen is but one example of experiments China has been working on for years. A well modelled city thriving on the success of relaxed trade and proximity to Hong Kong. It's not a world city and it wont be, but it is part of an urban triangle of immense power.

Third world cities don't suddenly become top grade world cities in 15 years. Some money, some politics and a few jobs and some trade don't constitute an alpha world city. Right now many people couldn't give a toss about Indian, African or South American cities ... no offence intended but their prognosis is not good in the short term. Even if they do grow at exponential rates and their standards improve drastically - there will be other types of fallout that will inhibit their rise to all powerful world cities.

Cities are complex organisms with a muliplicity of interconnecting parts - unfortunately many 3rd world cities need to fix things at home before they can hope to take on other world cities.

Time will see things differently but 15 years will not see Mumbai or Delhi being the word on everyone's lips.

I am amazed how people just assume major world cities we have now will just be left in the dust or suddenly disappear. The rise and fall of world metropolises does not happen overnight - well not unless through catastrophic events like complete decimation. These things take time and obviously world acceptance - some of these things are based on tradition also.

gutooo

October 6th, 2005, 10:55 AM

Ive made a table with all the cities cited in the first 18 lists (in order lists only), and i figured out a way, by percentage and points to make a list.

Ill make a list including all the lists, but im tired now so ill post now the beta list:

1 - New York (1,4)
2 - Tokyo (4,31)
3 - London (4,61)
4 - Hong Kong (5,71)
5 - Shanghai (6,06)
6 - Paris (6,9)
7 - São Paulo (10,04)
8 - Mumbai (10,36)
9 - Los Angeles (13,3)
10 - Moscow (20,65)
____________________
11 - Berlim (30,6)
12 - Toronto (45,45)
13 - Chicago (46,8)
14 - Dubai (53,1)
15 - Mexico City (59,0)
16 - Sydney (59,1)
17 - Washington (68,1)
18 - Istambul (77,2)
19 - San Francisco (80,0)
20 - Simgapore (81,8)
21 - Brussels (109)
22 - Beijing / Jakarta (120)
23 - Baghdad (160)
24 - Riyhad (180)
25 - Buenos Aires / Melbourne / Kuala Lumpur (200)

I am sure that when I complete the list it will change a lot!!!

The cities in the position 25 appeard in the 10th only once so by my method they have 200 points.

New York appeard on all lists so far (18 lists):
13 times in 1st, 3 times in 2nd and one time in 3rd and 4th, so, by my method it has 1,4 points.

I am agreeing with the list so far!

I think Ill have the complete one by tomorrow!

CENTRAL

October 6th, 2005, 11:02 AM

I stand by what i say - by 2020 I will be surprised to see an alpha rated Indian metropolis. China is far more advanced than India in many ways. Shenzhen is but one example of experiments China has been working on for years. A well modelled city thriving on the success of relaxed trade and proximity to Hong Kong. It's not a world city and it wont be, but it is part of an urban triangle of immense power.

Third world cities don't suddenly become top grade world cities in 15 years. Some money, some politics and a few jobs and some trade don't constitute an alpha world city. Right now many people couldn't give a toss about Indian, African or South American cities ... no offence intended but their prognosis is not good in the short term. Even if they do grow at exponential rates and their standards improve drastically - there will be other types of fallout that will inhibit their rise to all powerful world cities.

Cities are complex organisms with a muliplicity of interconnecting parts - unfortunately many 3rd world cities need to fix things at home before they can hope to take on other world cities.

Time will see things differently but 15 years will not see Mumbai or Delhi being the word on everyone's lips.

I am amazed how people just assume major world cities we have now will just be left in the dust or suddenly disappear. The rise and fall of world metropolises does not happen overnight - well not unless through catastrophic events like complete decimation. These things take time and obviously world acceptance - some of these things are based on tradition also.
you are right!
but the 10 most important cities are not the 10 most developed cities.
mumbai, as the no. 1 city of india, a rapidly growing huge country, will have quite strong influence to the world. it definitely will be far from good. but i am pretty sure it will be very important, might take a end seat of top 10.

CENTRAL

October 6th, 2005, 11:10 AM

Avatar

October 6th, 2005, 11:43 AM

Yup I agree, LOL but you don't have to quote the entire post :P

Azn_chi_boi

October 6th, 2005, 12:12 PM

In no order

1.New York
2.London
3.Shangai
4.Tokio
5.Los Angeles
6.Mexico City
7.Sao Paulo
8.Paris
9.Madrid
10.Moscow

and why not San Diego?
now the second in CA and sixth in the US

For the most part, population isn't the biggest factor about putting cities in the top 10 of importance, think Cairo, Mumbai, Bogota, Lagos, or Baghdad. Some even bigger in population then London, but does it make them as important as London.

In the US, think Houston, Phoenix, Jacksonville. Is it more important then Miami, Philadephila, San Francisco, Washington DC?

SHiRO

October 6th, 2005, 07:59 PM

Thread taking a nose dive again...

-Corey-

October 7th, 2005, 03:28 AM

For the most part, population isn't the biggest factor about putting cities in the top 10 of importance, think Cairo, Mumbai, Bogota, Lagos, or Baghdad. Some even bigger in population then London, but does it make them as important as London.

In the US, think Houston, Phoenix, Jacksonville. Is it more important then Miami, Philadephila, San Francisco, Washington DC?
I put those city by importance not by population.

Azn_chi_boi

October 7th, 2005, 11:43 AM

I ment San Diego...

Kaene

October 7th, 2005, 03:00 PM

London
Paris
Berlin
New York
Frankfurt
Moscow
Brussels
Tokyo
Milan
Stockholm

centralized pandemonium

October 7th, 2005, 05:36 PM

I stand by what i say - by 2020 I will be surprised to see an alpha rated Indian metropolis.

Alpha rated is definiely hard. I don't see Mumbai or NCR along with NYC, Tokyo or London or Paris. But a beta is not that difficult.

China is far more advanced than India in many ways. Shenzhen is but one example of experiments China has been working on for years. A well modelled city thriving on the success of relaxed trade and proximity to Hong Kong. It's not a world city and it wont be, but it is part of an urban triangle of immense power.

China is also backward to India in many ways. If I state in what ways, it will create a huge controversy.

Third world cities don't suddenly become top grade world cities in 15 years.

This theory of yours falls flat on face when you consider Shanghai.And most Chinese city for that matter. What was Shanghai 10-15 years ago, say till the early 90s. Large areas of it were farmlands. Then what happened. They built a few dozen of skyscrapers and so it becomes a world important city :|. So do tall skyscrapers make a city important to the world?

Some money, some politics and a few jobs and some trade don't constitute an alpha world city.

Completely agree with that. But here(in case of Indian cities) we are not talking of "some" money or "some" politics and a "few" jobs. By 2020, Indian economy is predicted to be the 5th or the 6th largest in nominal GDP terms.Its already the 4th largest in PPP terms. And you don't believe that even a SINGLE city would not be important :|. Any idea what is the political power of Delhi? Ever heard of the Indian subcontinent? Its 1.5 billion people constitue a fourth of the humantiy. Political power is not "some" political power.

Cities are complex organisms with a muliplicity of interconnecting parts - unfortunately many 3rd world cities need to fix things at home before they can hope to take on other world cities.

Time will see things differently but 15 years will not see Mumbai or Delhi being the word on everyone's lips.

Nobody had assumed 15 years ago that Shanghai would be such an important city today. 15 years is a lot of time. Anything can happen. Do not be sure.

I am amazed how people just assume major world cities we have now will just be left in the dust or suddenly disappear. The rise and fall of world metropolises does not happen overnight - well not unless through catastrophic events like complete decimation. These things take time and obviously world acceptance - some of these things are based on tradition also.

I am also amazed that some people are not willing to admit that the good ol' days of Europe are close to being over. Only extremely imoprtant cities like London, Paris, Frankfurt etc will be top notch. It amazes me how people refuse to acknowledge the rise of third world.

CENTRAL

October 8th, 2005, 08:24 AM

Alpha rated is definiely hard. I don't see Mumbai or NCR along with NYC, Tokyo or London or Paris. But a beta is not that difficult.

China is also backward to India in many ways. If I state in what ways, it will create a huge controversy.

This theory of yours falls flat on face when you consider Shanghai.And most Chinese city for that matter. What was Shanghai 10-15 years ago, say till the early 90s. Large areas of it were farmlands. Then what happened. They built a few dozen of skyscrapers and so it becomes a world important city :|. So do tall skyscrapers make a city important to the world?

Completely agree with that. But here(in case of Indian cities) we are not talking of "some" money or "some" politics and a "few" jobs. By 2020, Indian economy is predicted to be the 5th or the 6th largest in nominal GDP terms.Its already the 4th largest in PPP terms. And you don't believe that even a SINGLE city would not be important :|. Any idea what is the political power of Delhi? Ever heard of the Indian subcontinent? Its 1.5 billion people constitue a fourth of the humantiy. Political power is not "some" political power.

Nobody had assumed 15 years ago that Shanghai would be such an important city today. 15 years is a lot of time. Anything can happen. Do not be sure.

I am also amazed that some people are not willing to admit that the good ol' days of Europe are close to being over. Only extremely imoprtant cities like London, Paris, Frankfurt etc will be top notch. It amazes me how people refuse to acknowledge the rise of third world.

exactly!! mainland european will suffer a big fall in the coming 20 yrs.

boto_mix

October 8th, 2005, 11:23 AM

exactly!! mainland european will suffer a big fall in the coming 20 yrs.
:sleepy:

Dans

October 8th, 2005, 12:22 PM

Same as now: Tokyo, NY, Honk kong, London, Paris, LA, Chicago, Toronto, Berlin, Beijing, Sydney

rakesh

October 8th, 2005, 05:54 PM

New york,Toronto, Frankfurt, Dubai, Paris, Sydney, Tokyo, Chicago, LA, Shanghai

centralized pandemonium

October 8th, 2005, 06:05 PM

exactly!! mainland european will suffer a big fall in the coming 20 yrs.

I don't think it would be a big fall, but more like a gradual decline. Whatever happens, cities like London or Paris will always be important.

ChicagoSkyline

October 8th, 2005, 09:29 PM

I can't tell you ALL 10 important cities at the time of 2020, but I can assure you the CHICAGO is on the top 5 of the list! :)

CENTRAL

October 9th, 2005, 01:17 AM

I don't think it would be a big fall, but more like a gradual decline. Whatever happens, cities like London or Paris will always be important.
london will limpingly maintain its importance in the future. however, mainland EU cities such as paris, madrid, milan,etc will encounter very difficult situation in the near future. i dont see paris still remain in the top 5 in ten yrs.
no offense to europeans. :)

CENTRAL

October 9th, 2005, 01:22 AM

I can't tell you ALL 10 important cities at the time of 2020, but I can assure you the CHICAGO is on the top 5 of the list! :)
it is possible for the whole region.
but sorely as a city, chicago has no chance to become world's top5, as it has to face strong challange from toronto. chicago will never become the absolute centre of that region.

london-b

October 9th, 2005, 01:26 AM

Phil

October 9th, 2005, 01:46 AM

london will limpingly maintain its importance in the future. however, mainland EU cities such as paris, madrid, milan,etc will encounter very difficult situation in the near future. i dont see paris still remain in the top 5 in ten yrs.
no offense to europeans. :)

I really don't think so. I wonder what makes you think that ?
I can perfectly see the 4 cities you mention maintain their rank and I can even see Madrid gain some importance .
Just cause cities elsewhere are booming doesn't mean they'll take over "old europe" within a decade, that sounds a little too optimistic (or pessimistic...)

ab041937

October 9th, 2005, 05:12 AM

I really don't think so. I wonder what makes you think that ?
I can perfectly see the 4 cities you mention maintain their rank and I can even see Madrid gain some importance .
Just cause cities elsewhere are booming doesn't mean they'll take over "old europe" within a decade, that sounds a little too optimistic (or pessimistic...)

No offence to Spaniards but, I don't see Madrid being there and same about Paris. They'll be great tourist places. How can they be top cities when they do not employ universal language. Barely 0.1% of Madrid population can speak in English (those working at the airport & International Hotels)? Even the fellow Europeans would feel strangers over there.

In Europe, it will always be London. :cheer:

CENTRAL

October 9th, 2005, 05:16 AM

I really don't think so. I wonder what makes you think that ?
I can perfectly see the 4 cities you mention maintain their rank and I can even see Madrid gain some importance .
Just cause cities elsewhere are booming doesn't mean they'll take over "old europe" within a decade, that sounds a little too optimistic (or pessimistic...)
most EU countries are experiencing 0 growth, and some of them like Italy are declining. european's good days have gone. they lost their competibility in traditional industries to asia and meanwhile, they dont gain advantages in new tech industries. no EU country is able to challange the USA, except for UK in these areas.
I agree with HairR that it will be a gradual fall for EU rather than a sudden fall. but oveall, it will be a accumulated big deline.

ROCguy

October 9th, 2005, 05:51 AM

Europe and America need to team up if we want to stay on top of things and not let China and India totally take over.

Azn_chi_boi

October 9th, 2005, 01:46 PM

New york,Toronto, Frankfurt, Dubai, Paris, Sydney, Tokyo, Chicago, LA, Shanghai

What happen to London and Hong Kong?

And as for Chicago being the top 5... thats is a stretch...unless you are talking about skylines in 2020.

SHiRO

October 9th, 2005, 02:28 PM

most EU countries are experiencing 0 growth, and some of them like Italy are declining. european's good days have gone. they lost their competibility in traditional industries to asia and meanwhile, they dont gain advantages in new tech industries. no EU country is able to challange the USA, except for UK in these areas.
I agree with HairR that it will be a gradual fall for EU rather than a sudden fall. but oveall, it will be a accumulated big deline.
You have no clue what you are talking about (as does Harir).
Madrid is booming right now.
Europe has a very bright future with a huge development potential in the south and the east and established modern countries in the north.
China has a long way to go, don't count on it getting anywhere near Europe in our lifetime.

Your wishfull thinking is just pathetic...:lol:

great prairie

October 9th, 2005, 02:48 PM

It is a fact Europe isn't having as many kids and hasn't for awhile you have had more deaths then births.... Immigration is a different story.

Your cities are almost too established no huge amount of rural population moving to cities(China), developing countries like India and China are gaining population through birth. Tougher immigration laws and no mexico-to-america illegal immigration.

LtBk

October 9th, 2005, 02:59 PM

If i remmeber correctly, the current Asian economic powers like Japan, China, Korea, and Singapore are having less babies and the population is aging quickly.

boto_mix

October 9th, 2005, 03:01 PM

CENTRAL dreaming is free......

great prairie

October 9th, 2005, 03:21 PM

If i remmeber correctly, the current Asian economic powers like Japan, China, Korea, and Singapore are having less babies and the population is aging quickly.

The more developed a country is less babies they have, America is barely breaking even if I remember correctly and smaller population means more population loss generally.

CENTRAL

October 9th, 2005, 03:49 PM

You have no clue what you are talking about (as does Harir).
Madrid is booming right now.
Europe has a very bright future with a huge development potential in the south and the east and established modern countries in the north.
China has a long way to go, don't count on it getting anywhere near Europe in our lifetime.

Your wishfull thinking is just pathetic...:lol:
i am not kidding and i am not from china.
if you refer to the GDP growth of eu countries, you will find most of that are arround zero and for some countries like italy, it is a negative number.
why you guys are so optimistic? it is time to wake up.

CENTRAL

October 9th, 2005, 03:54 PM

SHiRO

October 9th, 2005, 04:05 PM

CENTRAL

October 9th, 2005, 04:13 PM

You are delusional.
It is time for you to wake up.
China not far from Europe? Europe 10 years behind the US?
Where did you go? Moldova?
I like how you say "UK not included" as there are dozens of countries on par with the UK.

This thread is dumbed down with every post you make...
judge YOURSELF before you make comments on others.
it is my opinion and it is my right to post it. any personal offense is unacceptable here. that is prob why eu is becoming waker and waker, far behind the usa. shame on you.
open your eyes and see how other ppl in the world look at you.

earthJoker

October 9th, 2005, 04:20 PM

CENTRAL, your posts really don't make any sense at all.

SHiRO

October 9th, 2005, 04:27 PM

Your opinion is one of the most uninformed I've ever seen on this forum and that is saying a lot.
And I'll be the judge of what is unacceptable here or not.
There is no "personal offence" (why do the trolls always use that excuse?), just don't expect not to be called out on your ludicrous statements.
You have been doing nothing but bash Europe in this thread, which is quite silly considering that it is fairly obvious that a unifying Europe only stands to gain on the world stage.
I, and many Europeans (and others) can only laugh at how we are viewed by you and your like, because obviously what 's going on over here is too complicated for your backward thinking about nationstates and putting to much importance to rapid growth (which is short term).

We have seen the most ludicrous lists here which include cities like Dubai and Shenzhen and it's sad that your posts even aim lower than that. Now get out of your parents basement and read up on things! (although how does a person "read up" on reality?)

tiger

October 9th, 2005, 04:58 PM

CENTRAL,I'd agree with you if we only consider big cities of China.

Ppl say China has a long way to go,because most of rual areas of China are far behind the US for example.

and the future of EU,difficult to say:-)

SHiRO

October 9th, 2005, 04:59 PM

Not as difficult as the future of China that's for sure...

tiger

October 9th, 2005, 05:01 PM

Not as difficult as the future of China that's for sure...

I'd not be so sure. :)

SHiRO

October 9th, 2005, 06:09 PM

Because turning a largely undeveloped country of 1.2 billion people with a uncertain political system is easier than expanding on an already very integrated union of mostly highly developed modern countries?

:|

Get real...

People perceive news about political and economical reform in Europe as some huge obstacle and at the same time some recent fast economical growth in China as an indicator for garanteed succes...??? It doesn't make any sense.

China is going to have heaps more trouble developing, than Europe is going to have reforming itself.

thx-rvg

October 9th, 2005, 09:17 PM

Greetings, I'm a new user.

A few comments before I provide my list:

-NYC's GMP (Gross Municipal Product) is estimated at $480B, for an $60k avg./resident (pop. being ~8.1M). This obviously excludes all areas outside of the municipal borders. I'd estimate that, given New Jersey's above-average state per capita, and the cluster of rich neighbourhoods around New York, the per capita GMP for the 22m-strong metro region would be $45k-50k (US avg. $40k, #2 after Norway PPP-wise), so New York City Metro's total economic output is probably around $990B-$1.1T, or more than Canada's or Mexico's GDP, or for that matter, more than that of all but a dozen countries. With such a strong direct base, even if NYC wasn't the financial centre of a nation of 300m people with an economy of $12.3T, it would be a significant centre. The fact that it is at the heart of America's economy ensures it a spot in the top 10 for the next century to come, at least.

-Considering that Tokyo's Metro region is home to 34-6m people, and that Japan's GDP (nominal) is $4.8T, Metro Tokyo's economy is probably around $1.3T. I believe that doubles India's total GDP (nominal), with room to spare, and is multiple times that of Shanghai's, Beijing's, and HongKong's economies combined. Anyone who disputes Tokyo's position as Asia's economy centre should seriously reconsider.

-If you look at the richest countries in 1800 and 1900, you'll find that shifts in power dynamics don't occur as quickly as people would often like to hope for. The major difference between 1900 and now is that, while the UK's GDP per capita then was tops, and that of the US at #5, today, that of the US is #2, and that of the UK just slightly below that of the top 10, etc. I expect there to be (hopefully) a more rapid development upwards during the next 50 years, but even so, the rich countries won't be slowing down either necessarily, certainly not the US.

-Current estimates for the size of the economies in 2050 acknowledge the growing importance of China, India, and Brazil, but should be also acutely aware of the continuing importance of the UK, Germany, Japan, and France, not to say anything of the US, which will remain as the most powerful economy in the world in 2050, irrespective of whether China's economy at that time will become bigger. It's not simply the size of an economy that determines how powerful or rich a country is. If we're going by wealth, America's current wealth is somewhere between $20T-$40T, out of the world's estimated $127T. Just make a note of which companies are doing business in China and India. It's important to consider that, if current trends continue, by 2050 Germany will cease to be Europe's biggest economy, giving way to either the UK or France, because of demographics. France and the UK, due to immigration, are continuing to witness growths in their population, while Germany's is beginning to decrease (Italy's population will plummet from 57m to 40m in 2050). In Europe, therefore, the current ranking of the biggest economies (1.DE, 2.UK, 3.Fr) will change (1/2 UK/Fr, 3.De).

Globally, the top economies are likely going to be:

1/2.US or China
3/4. India or Japan
5-8. UK/France/Germany/Brazil

Many of the countries that are touted as future centres of power are starting off from such a low base (especially in Africa, where the avg. person is worse off economically than the average European was in 1800), that even dramatic improvements will still not be enough for those countries to catch up in such a short time (45 years will roll by very quickly). Realistically, to offset both the population growth and the low base beginning, the economies of Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, and Indonesia will need to grow at 4-7% annually, if there's any prospect of immediate prosperity. Given that such growth rates over such a long period have been exceptionally rare (the two big examples being Germany and Japan, and others being Taiwan and South Korea), it's difficult to conceive of a scenario where this will be likely enough. I don't mean to imply that it's impossible, that'd be nonsense, but if it happens, it won't happen without great difficulty. If China, India, and Brazil end up as economic powerhouses big enough to challenge Europe and the US, it won't be because they will have solved all of their problems, but because they are so big that even while having many problems, they are still vast enough to make amends for them.

By 2020, the biggest economies (nominal GDP-wise) will still be the US and Japan, and maybe even Germany, if it picks itself up soon enough. China will likely have surpassed the UK/France, but I doubt India will in 15 years' time. PPP-wise, it's more or less a done deal that China and India are #2 and 3 now, and by 2020, China might well be #1, barring some major occurence.

- Due to India's and China's size, if economic growth is to happen, and if it is to be sustained, the entire area must be rejuvenated. What this means is that we will not end up with one or two big cities like in the case of Japan or France, but with many big cities in place of a megalopolis, like in Germany. So even if India and China keep on expanding, the likely outcome is that there'll be a greater distribution of power among the various metropolitan areas. It's inconceivable that Mumbai would be pushed to the foreground without improvements in Delhi, Kalkotta, and Chennai, just to name some of the bigger centres. And at any rate, given that Uttar Pradesh has a 166m strong population, it's difficult to imagine Lucknow, or perhaps other major centres, being ignored. I can envisage a system like Germany with Mumbai like Hamburg/Frankfurt, Delhi/New Delhi like Berlin, and so on. Ditto for China: Shanghai as a kind of Hamburg (obviously much bigger), Beijing as a bigger Berlin, etc. I suppose the US provides for the best prototype with NYC being the biggest city, but still being by no means exhaustive as a centre of power. However, I am very skeptical. I find it hard to believe that people in India have as much affinity for Mumbai as the major centre as Americans have for NYC. I see no reason why they should. Ditto for Shanghai in China. I think if there is any one city in that area that will grow in importance, it will be Beijing. China's clout will be felt as much in politics as in economics, if not more so. We'll hear the name "Beijing" more often in the news over the next 15 years than we will either "London" or "Paris". And that's saying a lot.

- California's economy at this moment is big enough to make it, if it was a country, the 7th richest country in the world ($1.4-1.5T). Metro LA is America's biggest manufacturing centre, and therefore one of the world's biggest. It has America's most important port (and a growing China/India will guarantee that LA's port will continue to grow in importance), the world's 4th busiest airport, and many others besides, and is, in of itself, an important market: 16-20m of the world's richest people as potential consumers, and given that economic output in Metro LA is probably around $700B, that kind of money is hard to ignore. California will continue to add people well after 2020, and by then should have a population of 45m. Add the technological importance of San Francisco and Silicon Valley, one of the world's most important and fertile farm regions in Central Valley, and in the form of Hollywood, the major cultural force in the world, and you have one of the world's central economic and cultural centres. And Los Angeles being at the centre of it, I have a difficulty coming up with a list that does not include LA. Whether we like it or not, the fact is that Los Angeles right now is as important to the world at large as Paris is, both economically and culturally.

1. New York City
2. Washington, D.C. (political. Ask yourself where many of the major decisions that have shaped our world over the last 4 years have come from; then ask yourself where the major decisions over the next 15 years will be made)
3. Beijing
4. Tokyo
5. London
6. Los Angeles
7. Paris
8. Frankfurt/Berlin (Certainly, if a more integrated EU will opt for Frankfurt as the financial centre; consider this as a symbolic pick to represent Germany, which cannot be ignored)
9. Hong Kong or Shanghai (More HK than Shanghai, because it's more developed already)
10. Moscow (Russia is a dangerous country to ignore; if it actually picks itself up, it could come back as a major force in global economics)

I'd also mention Chicago and the San Francisco Bay Region as two hugely important regions in the US, as well as Seoul, which tends to be (unfairly) ignored, but which is at the heart of many major developments in politics and economics in Asia.

Indian and Brazilian cities will certainly register strongly as we move past 2020. If well-managed, the New-Delhi/Delhi region, because of it's political clout as India's seat of government, and perhaps as a major economic force in its own right, would seem, for me, to be as strong a candidate as Mumbai. But we'll see.

Anyways, cheers. I'm sorry for the long post. Just felt I needed to give reasons for my choices. :)

boto_mix

October 9th, 2005, 10:46 PM

CENTRAL

October 10th, 2005, 02:43 AM

silly europeans， hopeless land

pottebaum

October 10th, 2005, 02:55 AM

Wow.

Wow.

boto_mix

October 10th, 2005, 03:05 PM

silly europeans， hopeless land
:crazy: :crazy: :crazy: vaya podre.....

909

October 10th, 2005, 03:43 PM

i ve been to europe and it was like 10 yrs behind the US (uk not included). however, ppl there still felt they were the centre of the world. the world is changing all the time, china in my eyes were not far from europe, and it is catching up quickly. india will have a longer way to go, but still, it has a brighter future.
So what is, cannot be in the future? But what will be, shall be?
If the world is chancing all the time, how can someone know what comes with the future? In that case i can assume Africa has the brigthest future of all continents...

silly europeans， hopeless land
Enjoy yourself: Cognitive dissonance (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance) and Selective perception (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selective_perception).

The world is not what a man thinks what it is... ;)

SHiRO

October 10th, 2005, 04:25 PM

silly europeans， hopeless land
Ran out of arguments?
Oh that's right, you never had any to begin with...

kucksi

October 10th, 2005, 05:48 PM

judge YOURSELF before you make comments on others.
it is my opinion and it is my right to post it. any personal offense is unacceptable here. that is prob why eu is becoming waker and waker, far behind the usa. shame on you.
open your eyes and see how other ppl in the world look at you.

hehe u speak like u live in a bubble or something. please...

european

October 10th, 2005, 06:53 PM

Guyz we all know that NY, LONODN, TOKYO & PARIS will always be at the top of the list there is no argues about that unless some naturall disaster or terrorist attack occur which is very likely and already has happened but in future there might be more hurrific ones than the ones we seen before and which might wipe out the whole cities just by a drop of one bomb. And if we go for WW3 which is also likely but not very likely then 4 cities will fight against each other.

Anyway moving on thats what I think as top 10 cities of world by 2020.

USA=NY/LA/SF/Washington DC

UK= London/Birmingham

China= HK/Shanghai/Beijing

India=Mumbai/NCR(Delhi)/Bangalore

Korea=Seoul

France=Paris

Japan= Tokyo

Australia=Sydney

Canada= Tokyo

Brazil= Sao Paulo/ Rio

Cant think of any other cities which will be more important than the cites mantioned above. This is my opinion.

Eduardo

October 10th, 2005, 06:57 PM

Here ill give a list of 8 important countries and one city from that list.

USA
New York

CHINA:
Hong Kong

JAPAN:
Tokyo

UK:
London

BRAZIL:
Sao Paulo

CANADA
Toronto

FRANCE:
Paris

AUSTRALIA:
Sydney

+ EXTRA CITIES

Los Angeles
Shanghai.

(Plus San Diego 'cause I said so:D)

The best listing .... :)

LosAngelesSportsFan

October 11th, 2005, 03:26 AM

Evangelion

October 11th, 2005, 04:38 AM

dont forget chicago.

i highly doubt chicago will be top 10, more likely top 20

Faz90

October 11th, 2005, 05:12 AM

I think 2020 is too early for Dubai to be in the top 10. It will barely be after the projects complete, and it will take much more time to be in the top 10. Maybe top 20 or 25 in 15 years.

pottebaum

October 11th, 2005, 05:28 AM

Why would Dubai be in the top 10, though?

Butcher

October 11th, 2005, 05:45 AM

^^Because it's growing at an enormous rate (according to what I have seen on this site), although I'm not sure if it will make it into the top 10 in 15 years time though.

Butcher

October 11th, 2005, 05:48 AM

Japan= Tokyo

Australia=Sydney

Canada= Tokyo

:? You mean Toronto?

cello1974

October 13th, 2005, 04:17 PM

ro34

December 14th, 2005, 02:07 AM

top 10 cities of world by 2020.

SHANGHAI
HONG KONG
NEW YORK
LONDON
MUMBAI
TOKIO
SINGAPORE
SEOUL
PARIS
KUALA LUMPUR

Bertez

December 14th, 2005, 02:46 AM

In no order

New York
London
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Mumbai
Tokyo
Kuala Lumpur
Sao Paulo
Toronto
Singapore

Honourable Mention
Dubai
Beiijing
Dehli
Singapore
Seoul
Chicago
Calgary
Mexico City
Sydney
Frankfurt

pottebaum

December 14th, 2005, 02:48 AM

^It's a great town, but how'd Toronto get itself in the top 10?

skyscraper_1

December 14th, 2005, 03:09 AM

Washington
Beijing
New York
Tokyo
London
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Paris
Berlin
Seoul

Galatia

December 14th, 2005, 03:14 AM

Well here's my list;

1- New York - though they'll lose some weight sure they'll be still in top ten
2- Tokyo - biggest in Asia now, it'll be biggest in 2020 too
3- London - They will be still most important in Europe.
4- Istanbul - Istanbul was the most important city in the world for centuries. As she's the fastest growing city in Europe now, she's returning back to her glory days. In 2020 Istanbul will be the center for more than 1 trillion $ trade.
5- Hong Kong - financial center of the whole far east.
6- Shanghai - China will be more important ever it was before. They would be higher in rank but they lack democracy.
7- Seoul - They're really advancing fast.
8- Paris - I think that they are losing importance but they'll be still in top ten
9- Moscow - Though Russia has population getting older day by day. They'll be more important in 2020 than they're now.
10- Mexcio City - Center of Latin America.

BTW respect for Dubai, they'll be important in their region but global importance is sth. different.

brooklynprospect

December 14th, 2005, 03:31 AM

2020

NY
HK/Shanghai (whichever ends up being China's premier financial/business center)
London
Tokyo
Washington (solely as a political center)
HK/Shanghai (the less important of the two)
Mumbai
LA
Paris
Sao Paulo

kyenan

December 14th, 2005, 03:33 AM

Actually, it was 11th in 2004. http://news.naver.com/news/read.php?mode=LSS2D&office_id=011&article_id=0000094352&section_id=101&section_id2=263&menu_id=101

And as a relatively developed economy with a rapidly aging population (and soon to be shrinking workforce), it's very likely to be overtaken by the likes of Mexico, Brazil, Russia...

Unfortunately for you, 2020 is not the time when S. Korea starts to shrink in population. So, mentioning population aging doesn't work. Say that to China, where population is fast aging too. By your criteria, China shouldn't have any great city by 2020, while India takes over all the positions of China. lol

Cariad

December 14th, 2005, 03:37 AM

New York
London
Hong Kong
Tokyo
Beijing
Istanbul
Toronto
Paris
Melbourne
Buenos Aires

brooklynprospect

December 14th, 2005, 03:45 AM

Unfortunately for you, 2020 is not the time when S. Korea starts to shrink in population. So, mentioning population aging doesn't work. Say that to China, where population is fast aging too. By your criteria, China shouldn't have any great city by 2020, while India takes over all the positions of China. lol

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/FK04Dk01.html

According to the Asia Times, South Korea's population is forecast to begin shrinking around 2015. And even if the total population isn't shrinking by 2020, there's every chance that the work force might be. Couple this with the fact that:

1) Korea is already a relatively developed economy, and hence subject to the relatively slow per capita income growth that developed economies experience

2) Korea is already in 2005 not one of the world's 10 largest economies

= Makes it very difficult for Korea in 2020 to be one of the world's 10 most important economic players, and hence makes it difficult for Seoul to be one of the world's 10 most important cities in 2020

China will have a similar population problem soon after S Korea, but with 1.3 billion people at currently very low per capita GDP levels, the country still has plenty of room to grow, become and remain one of the world's 2 or 3 largest (if not the largest) economies for a very very long time to come.

kyenan

December 14th, 2005, 04:36 AM

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/FK04Dk01.html

According to the Asia Times, South Korea's population is forecast to begin shrinking around 2015. And even if the total population isn't shrinking by 2020, there's every chance that the work force might be. Couple this with the fact that:

1) Korea is already a relatively developed economy, and hence subject to the relatively slow per capita income growth that developed economies experience

2) Korea is already in 2005 not one of the world's 10 largest economies

= Makes it very difficult for Korea in 2020 to be one of the world's 10 most important economic players, and hence makes it difficult for Seoul to be one of the world's 10 most important cities in 2020

China will have a similar population problem soon after S Korea, but with 1.3 billion people at currently very low per capita GDP levels, the country still has plenty of room to grow, become and remain one of the world's 2 or 3 largest (if not the largest) economies for a very very long time to come.

Try to play with this-->http://esa.un.org/unpp/

And enjoy the following article. :cheers:

Korea to be 9th Economy by 2025 (http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/biz/200512/kt2005121117484411880.htm)

By Seo Jee-yeon
Staff Reporter

South Korea, the world’s 11th largest economy, will power the global economy as a key member of the ``Next Eleven’’ economies, something of the magnitude of the ``BRICs economies,’’ according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, a U.S.-based investment banking and securities firm.

The ``Next Eleven’’ is the second term that the Goldman Sachs has coined to describe economies with high growth potential in the world, such as the ``BRICs'' economies encompassing Brazil, Russia, India and China.

The 11 countries include Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam.

The Goldman Sachs report said South Korea is ``standing out’’ among these countries.

Comparing 22 economies _ G7 members, BRICs and the Next Eleven, the report predicted Korea will grow to be the world’s ninth largest economy with its gross domestic production (GDP) expanding to $2.63 trillion by 2025. Currently, the nation’s GDP is $680 billion and 11th in the world.

By 2025, the world’s top 10 economies will be the U.S., China, Japan, Germany, India, the U.K., France, Russia, South Korea and Italy, its forecast said.

In the ranking of per capita gross national product (GNP), South Korea will be ranked the third after the U.S. and Japan by 2025 among 22 countries, with its GNP per capita soaring to $52,000. By 2050, the nation’s GNP per capita will reach $81,000, the report said.

In the short-term, the Korean economy will face challenges of high interest rates and rising inflation. Secondly, the appreciation of Korean won against Japanese yen may hurt exports, which is Korea’s single largest drive for the growth amid the prolonged consumption slump.

But the Goldman Sachs report was confident in the long term, saying that Korea has a unique opportunity in Asia to prosper and assume a greater role in global financial affairs. The only question is whether its leaders will sense it and turn that potential into reality, it said.

jyseo@koreatimes.co.kr

12-11-2005 17:51