San Francisco/Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto/Salinas

Here are population figures for the last 63 years.....very impressive. Southern California usually gets the attention for high growth(usually because its growth is more impressive), but these numbers would indicate that Northern California's emerging Megalopolis has been quite impressive as well.

Population
1940 2,526,054
1950 3,647,000
1960 5,066,320
1970 6,455,400
1980 7,530,800
1990 9,114,800
2000 10,498,800
2003 10,861,000

Net Population Change
1940-1950 +1,120,946(+44.3%)
1950-1960 +1,419,320(+38.9%)
1960-1970 +1,389,080(+27.4%)
1970-1980 +1,075,400(+16.6%)
1980-1990 +1,584,000(+21.0%)
1990-2000 +1,384,000(+15.1%)
2000-2003 +363,000(+3.4%)

Average Annual Population Change(1940-2003) +132,313

1940-2003 +8,335,746

:eek2:

It's going to be a Megalopolis sometime, California has a larger economy then France.

I disagree with your lumping of all the areas into one megalopolis. The Bay Area is distinct from the Monterey Bay Area, Sacramento and Stockton. They are areas divided- at least for now- by beautiful open spaces. In SoCal, it's all a giant lump, except for the open sace between the LA and SD areas.
Until we are all combined by buildings and suburbia, we will be distinct and seperate.

^^that space between LA and SD is about a 3 mile stretch on the I-5.....

Commuter Percentages between The Central Valley and The Bay Area are higher then anywhere else in the nation. It really has very little to do with how much land is in between 2 metros-but rather what percentage of the commuters physically go outside their home metro for work.

In that sense,
Northern California is heads and shoulders above all regions in the country. More then all the feeder metros that send people to NY, Chi, LA, DC anywhere.

^^^^Yeah this guy has this idea that geography is not relevant......I wonder if we ever develop maglev in the states to a great degree then people who commute from LA to San fran would be part of the same metro in his opinion, or for that matter St Louis to Chicago, or Minny to Chicago, or Boston to NY, or Wash to NY......
....if maglev allowed such commuting charactersitics then as he said it has very little to do w/ how much land is between two metros.......

......I for one don't buy it if you look at a map and drive through an area an there is extensive geographic discoonect and lack of contiguous development then it is not part of the sam metro, simple as that

I find that funny to call it North CA megalopolis, I don't find it looking like one because....if you compare it to the city that covers every square mile of the world on Star Wars, that's what it is. There's plenty of farms, forests scattered around North California and I don't find it being a megalopolis. It's not a solid metro area.

Commuter Percentages between The Central Valley and The Bay Area are higher then anywhere else in the nation. It really has very little to do with how much land is in between 2 metros-but rather what percentage of the commuters physically go outside their home metro for work.

In that sense,
Northern California is heads and shoulders above all regions in the country. More then all the feeder metros that send people to NY, Chi, LA, DC anywhere.
if ur basing this soley on commuter percentages, then u cant include the monterey bay area as part of ur "megalopolis". i commute from gilroy to san jose for work and theres hardley a soul on the 101. the percentage of people commuting from salinas/monterey to sillicon valley/bay area cant be that high cuz the traffic isnt bad. they have their own jobs/industry down in salinas/monterey.

I find that funny to call it North CA megalopolis, I don't find it looking like one because....if you compare it to the city that covers every square mile of the world on Star Wars, that's what it is. There's plenty of farms, forests scattered around North California and I don't find it being a megalopolis. It's not a solid metro area.Yeah you're right, Northern California isn't A solid metro area. The Bay Area is the only metro area in the US that has three major cities in it, as opposed to one city and outlying suburbs like every other metro area in the country. Oh, by the way, there are 7+ million people that reside in this "farm".

^^^^Yeah this guy has this idea that geography is not relevant......
Not in the case of Northern California-sorry. Im not saying its a good thing, but its happening.

wonder if we ever develop maglev in the states to a great degree then people who commute from LA to San fran would be part of the same metro in his opinion, or for that matter St Louis to Chicago, or Minny to Chicago, or Boston to NY, or Wash to NY......
....if maglev allowed such commuting charactersitics then as he said it has very little to do w/ how much land is between two metros.......
The only difference is that even without maglev, we already have tens of thousands of people commuting from our hinterlands into the Metro.

......I for one don't buy it if you look at a map and drive through an area an there is extensive geographic discoonect and lack of contiguous development then it is not part of the sam metro, simple as that
LOL...Oh really? Santa Cruz is totally separate from The Central Bay Area. Hollister too. Santa Rosa has lots of land in between it and the rest of The Bay Area. For that matter, there are colossal traffic jams at our fringes during commute times-I suppose you think this is all happenstance?

Yawn,
I never said that it was one metropolitan area, never contended that its all going to be combined tommorrow, but there is a strong trend of commuting between these metros that far exceed that of any other comparable region in the nation. One day they will merge. People are so incredulous meanwhile the region adds 1 Million+ every decade-to even insinuate that its all by coincidence and unrelated is nonsense.

if ur basing this soley on commuter percentages, then u cant include the monterey bay area as part of ur "megalopolis".
The Salinas MSA includes all of Monterey County.

if ur basing this soley on commuter percentages, then u cant include the monterey bay area as part of ur "megalopolis". i commute from gilroy to san jose for work and theres hardley a soul on the 101. the percentage of people commuting from salinas/monterey to sillicon valley/bay area cant be that high cuz the traffic isnt bad. they have their own jobs/industry down in salinas/monterey.
You dont understand.

Santa Cruz is part of The Bay Area and that is where significant amounts of people from Monterey County work.

Its not people driving all the way to San Jose or Downtown San Francisco-its people travelling to neighboring counties that happen to be in another Metro Area.

If the state's estimates hold true, then the state's northern megalopolis will surpass the LA Basin in percentage growth and numeric growth. Something that hasnt occured since-uh, 1900?(LOL)

Total Northern CA Megalopolis 2000 10,360,255
Total MegaloNorCal 2050 18,717,046
2000-2050 Net Change +8,356,791
2000-2050 Growth +80.6%

Total LA Metro Area 2000 16,444,350
Total LA Metro Area 2050 23,792,159
2000-2050 Net Change +7,347,809
2000-2050 Growth +44.6%

:eek2:


http://www.dof.ca.gov/html/Demograp/...lease_5-04.pdf

THE EYE ON THE EAST BAY
East Bay growth linked with Central Valley's

By George Avalos
CONTRA COSTA TIMES
Young people were once told to go west to find their fortunes on the new frontier. Now they may need to head east.

The East Bay's future will become more strongly linked to the emerging suburbs of the east rather than the older economies to its west and south. As the East Bay's fast-growing regions in eastern Contra Costa and the Tri-Valley continue to add residents, jobs and wages, neighboring areas such as Stockton, Lodi, Tracy, Manteca and Modesto will become more intertwined with the East Bay.

"The performance of the East Bay economy is inextricably linked to the growth and development that is now occurring in the Central Valley," said Sean Snaith, director of the Business Forecasting Center at University of the Pacific in Stockton.

"We call it the Bay Area integration," said Mike Locke, president of the San Joaquin Partnership, an economic development group. "Both from a housing and employment perspective, that integration has continued to increase."

If you're in East County driving along Highway 4 east of Brentwood, Stockton is not that far away. If you cruise along the highway out of Byron, before long you see signs for a new town that has sprouted in the Central Valley, Mountain House. Or take the interstate east of Livermore and you get to Tracy and beyond in a few miles.

"It's almost an umbilical cord that flows out of the East Bay into the Central Valley," Snaith said. "The interstates that connect the areas are kind of like arteries that pump blood through these regions."

This 21st Century version of Northern California's economic evolution finds the East Bay playing a new role.

"Central Valley cities have become bedroom communities for the employment centers of the East Bay," said Keitaro Matsuda, an economist with San Francisco-based Union Bank.

Only a couple of decades ago, it was the East Bay that was pigeon-holed as a bedroom community for San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

Houses in Alameda and Contra Costa counties were far cheaper than those in neighboring counties. People who worked in San Francisco's financial district and tourist facilities, or Silicon Valley's chip and computer centers, lived here.

Eventually, office rents surged so strongly in the two major business centers that big companies such as Chevron Corp., AT&T and Bank of America opened mammoth back office and customer support centers in Pleasanton, San Ramon, Concord and elsewhere.

The expansion chugged ahead. The Tri-Valley became a hot spot for growth, even drawing some high-tech companies to the region. More homes were needed. The eastern borders of the East Bay added houses, then shopping centers, then hospitals, then office and industrial parks. Subdivisions of executive homes were built, joining the pioneering Blackhawk enclave.

The East Bay has far outstripped its Silicon Valley and San Francisco rivals in job growth during the tech meltdown and the subsequent economic expansion. Before the recession, all three areas had more than one million jobs. Now, the East Bay is the Bay Area's only million-job economy.

Yet this evolution produces challenges for the East Bay. Leaders in Antioch, Pittsburg, Brentwood, Oakley and Byron, for example, while getting plenty of population and housing growth, wonder whether they will miss out on office and industrial growth that could leap-frog straight to the Central Valley.

"It's one thing to have all these rooftops in East County," said David Navarette, an executive with Brentwood Olive Oil Co. and an officer with the chamber of commerce. "But we need the jobs, and we need people to stay here and shop here. You need commercial development and jobs to make that happen."

But the jobs might shy away from places such as East County if that region fails to upgrade its transportation system.

"We and the other chambers and the other cities out here have been fighting to get the Highway 4 expansion, BART and e-BART," said Linsey Dicks, a director with the Antioch Chamber of Commerce.

Today, those arteries that link Highway 4 and Interstate 580 suffer from more than a few blockages, giving pause to businesses considering moving to that area.

Some East Bay leaders believe it is possible to encourage complementary growth patterns in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties.

"There are opportunities to have logistics and distribution centers located in the Central Valley, and manufacturing centers in the Tri-Valley and East County," said Robert Lanter, executive director of the Contra Costa County Workforce Development Board.

Ultimately, the East Bay and the Central Valley could become a kind of megalopolis able to offer many kinds of commerce. It would be a region with a port, and airport, manufacturing, high-tech, office parks, shopping malls, industrial centers, and, of course, houses. Lots and lots of houses. And more homes and businesses to come.

Yet this would not be something strange for America.

"We have witnessed this in large metropolitan areas around the United States," Snaith said. "Look at Washington, D.C. It has gone into Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia. That is the outward expansion that can be expected for the East Bay."

George Avalos covers the economy, financial markets, insurance and banks. You can reach him at 925-977-8477 or gavalos@cctimes.com.

Not in the case of Northern California-sorry. Im not saying its a good thing, but its happening.


The only difference is that even without maglev, we already have tens of thousands of people commuting from our hinterlands into the Metro.


LOL...Oh really? Santa Cruz is totally separate from The Central Bay Area. Hollister too. Santa Rosa has lots of land in between it and the rest of The Bay Area. For that matter, there are colossal traffic jams at our fringes during commute times-I suppose you think this is all happenstance?

Yawn,
I never said that it was one metropolitan area, never contended that its all going to be combined tommorrow, but there is a strong trend of commuting between these metros that far exceed that of any other comparable region in the nation. One day they will merge. People are so incredulous meanwhile the region adds 1 Million+ every decade-to even insinuate that its all by coincidence and unrelated is nonsense.


The Salinas MSA includes all of Monterey County.


Ok...it seems you are internally inconsistent.....in one sentence you say

"Santa Cruz is totally separate from The Central Bay Area. Hollister too. Santa Rosa has lots of land in between it and the rest of The Bay Area. "

and

"I never said that it was one metropolitan area, never contended that its all going to be combined tommorrow, but there is a strong trend of commuting between these metros that far exceed that of any other comparable region in the nation."

Yet you insist that they are part of a megalopolis. A megalopolis is essentially a really large extensive metro area or maybe clustered metros whose development is such that they run contiguously......NY-Philly comes to mind, so does LA-SanBernadino, in the near future Chi-Milw probably. So you did imply that they were either part of one continously developed metro or part of a clustered pattern whose development runs together.

SO which is it, separate or together.......you can't have it both ways.

Again, ummm.....double yawn, your apparent criteria is based on commuter patterns.....I don't know of this as being a valid criteria for judging a megalopolis......

.....as to having huge traffic jams on your fringes......well I can think of a few reasons for this....


decentralized employment centers, lack of adequate transportation alternatives, auto-centric culture that spurns whatever alternatives exist.....I have to admit I am not familiar w/ public mass transit options in and around San Fran and Northern Ca......I don't know if there is any analog to Chicago's mass transit / metra services.

Anyhow none of those reasons transform separate metros into a single megaloplis.....there is simply to much disconnect.....you seem to admit this.....by saying for instance Santa Cruz is totally separate from the Bay Area.....but then you claim it is definitley part of the bay area ???...hmmm which is it?

So which is it are they separate or are they continguous.....if separate they are not a megalopolis.


Using transportation % as your criteria is a novel and creative mechanism for establishing your northern Ca megalopis....but until there is nearly continuous development it simply belies reality.

In a sense, I actually do have it both ways.

Santa Cruz, Santa Rosa and Hollister are not part of the Bay Area's contiguous urban area, but they are all part of the Bay Area CSA.

Whereas the 100 Mile radius around San Francisco is not contiguously urbanized to a point that it can be considered a Megalopolis-there are signs that this area is emerging into one by way of new development. Most visibly at the boundary between The East Bay and the Central Valley.

Also, and this is the "also" that separates Northern California from all other areas that speculate future Metropolitan Area Consolidations. There are significant numbers of people from The Central Valley that commute into The Bay Area's counties. Insomuch that some have even predicted the East Bay and Central Valley to become like Washington-Baltimore. Between 2000-2050, The 100 Mile radius around San Francisco is expected to add 8 Million people-it would be shortsighted to think its not all related.

So,
I suppose I should stop calling it a Megalopolis because in reality, we are actually growing into one Metropolitan Area-Such an Entity would be pretty fierce. LOL

I agree that in the future the SanFran area will merge w/ many of the area around it into one very large metro / megalopolis.....however I wouldn't yet classify it as such.

It will be a beast w/ a pop of prob around 10mill or so.
Here in Chi I really want maglev to better connect Milw and Chi and perhaps Madison wis.

What's the largest space/gap in the Northern California Megalopolis (like the Vandenberg base in Southern California)? Are there any as large as that?

Tha bay itself?:dunno::lol:

Do you think the Monterrey bay area will grow into a "mini-matropolis", with Santa Cruz merging with Watsonville, and Monterrey merging with Salinas, or some new city between Monterrey and Santa Cruz?

Do you think the Monterrey bay area will grow into a "mini-matropolis", with Santa Cruz merging with Watsonville, and Monterrey merging with Salinas, or some new city between Monterrey and Santa Cruz?

nope. remember the monterey bay is heavily protected which makes new contruction along it's coast difficult (waste water has to go somehwere right?) plus, land there is relatively expensive when compared to the central valley and it's economic base is still largely agricultural. all this points to new growth occuring in the central valley and even the bay area proper rather than monterey bay.

That area between Monterrey, and SC is some of the most productive farmland in the country, but they could build a few new developments, such as the area between SC, and Watsonville, as long as they are well planed, and respect the natural landsacape. Are there any town between SC and WV?

Watsonville annexes land for growth: http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/archive/2006/May/24/local/stories/03local.htm

1940 2,526,054
1950 3,647,000
1960 5,066,320
1970 6,455,400
1980 7,530,800
1990 9,114,800
2000 10,498,800
2003 10,861,000

2006 11,269,465

The California 2006 Population Estimates are out.

In future years there will be two NorCal metropolises. One will be the more recognizable Bay Area, and the other will be the Area in the valley going south from Sacremento. After that, the two will join and form a metropolis which could be larger than LA.

Watsonville annexes land for growth: http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/archive/2006/May/24/local/stories/03local.htm
http://www.metroactive.com/papers/cruz/11.25.98/watsonvillefarms-9847.html

Could the Monterrey Bay merge intp a metropolis? It is such a nice area I would hate to see it ruined, but when you look at that area on a map, you can't help thinking a major city would be there.

I doubt North California population will continue to grow fast, it will slow down in the meantime. The reason? The cost of living and the skyrocketing house prices keeps first time buyers and people who can't afford buying a small house which cost a bundle of money. Who would want to buy a 1,800 sq ft house that cost $500,000 right next to a busy street?

The real estate bubble is going to burst anytime in the future, no knowing when. Bam!

Well,
Greater NorCal has grown by around 800,000 since 2000, so there might be a hole or two in your theory there.

Well,
Greater NorCal has grown by around 800,000 since 2000, so there might be a hole or two in your theory there.

800,000 babies AND immigrants from other countries, think about that. :)

800,000 babies AND immigrants from other countries, think about that. :)
Your contention was that Greater NorCal is going to slow down in population growth due to housing costs-yet the actual numbers would indicate otherwise, bigtime.

Your retort to the numbers is to attack the kind of growth that is occurring. Well to make the connection btwn your two posts.

Q:who is going to pay $500,000 for a 1800 sq ft house?

A: Immigrants are the fastest growing homebuying segment in California-they are snapping up the bulk of inner city homes in that price range bcuz they have no qualms about working 2-3 jobs to pay for it. Unlike spoiled xenophobes that escape to the hinterlands and then move to Arizona cause they want 5000 sq ft instead of 3000 sq ft-good riddance.

Also,
Being a Immigrant Magnet for over 150 years, this is not something new here.

everyone i know in the silicon valley dont consider themselves part of san francisco...actually most of them are quick to make the distinction that they do NOT live in san francisco and quickl disassociate themselves from SF.

Could the Monterrey Bay merge intp a metropolis? It is such a nice area I would hate to see it ruined, but when you look at that area on a map, you can't help thinking a major city would be there.
What will be the future of development in the monterrey bay area? I know Watsonville is wants to annex land for expansion.

everyone i know in the silicon valley dont consider themselves part of san francisco...actually most of them are quick to make the distinction that they do NOT live in san francisco and quickl disassociate themselves from SF.


That's true, even San Francisco city derives its names from the Bay.

But "The Northern California Bay Area" sounds more palatable for some.

If the state's estimates hold true, then the state's northern megalopolis will surpass the LA Basin in percentage growth and numeric growth. Something that hasnt occured since-uh, 1900?(LOL)

Total Northern CA Megalopolis 2000 10,360,255
Total MegaloNorCal 2050 18,717,046
2000-2050 Net Change +8,356,791
2000-2050 Growth +80.6%

Total LA Metro Area 2000 16,444,350
Total LA Metro Area 2050 23,792,159
2000-2050 Net Change +7,347,809
2000-2050 Growth +44.6%

:eek2:


http://www.dof.ca.gov/html/Demograp/...lease_5-04.pdf

i havent gotten to the rest of the thread yet, so if this has been discussed please disregard my post.

Those numbers for LA are very wrong in my opinion. LA is already up to 18,000,000 plus in 6 years and there is no way barring catastrophe that LA is less than 26 - 28 million in 2050. Amazing growth by Norcal by the way. impressive numbers to say the least.

What will be the future of development in the monterrey bay area? I know Watsonville is wants to annex land for expansion.


I just hope that whatever happens down in Watsonville doesnt disrupt the strawberries farms. Watsonville grows some of very best strawberries on the West Coast!

In future years there will be two NorCal metropolises. One will be the more recognizable Bay Area, and the other will be the Area in the valley going south from Sacremento. After that, the two will join and form a metropolis which could be larger than LA.

By that time, the LA and SD metros have merged to become THE LARGEST in the nation.

By that time, the LA and SD metros have merged to become THE LARGEST in the nation.
The major justification for merging is commuter percentages-in other words, what percentage of commuters cross metro boundaries to work in another metro area. It has very little to due to contiguous development-otherwise, Philadelphia and New York would have merged a long time ago. NY and Philly are completely autonomous of each other-like LA and SD.

In the case of LA and SD-the commuter percentages are very small compared to The Bay Area and Central Valley.

But we never know how the future will pan out so your guess is as good as anyone elses. :)

everyone i know in the silicon valley dont consider themselves part of san francisco...actually most of them are quick to make the distinction that they do NOT live in san francisco and quickl disassociate themselves from SF.

Yes,
we have boisterous suburbs that thirst for their own identity because they are filthy rich and have enormous corporate power but whether they like it or not, we are all joined at the hip.

San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose all have their own distinct downtowns and spheres of influence, but the relationship between the west, east, south and northern quadrants of this metro is undeniable and worthy of a single Metro-not even debatable.

Traffic in Eastern Alameda County(40 miles east of DT SF)-commuters headed home to San Joaquin County and points east. Most of these people dont live in The Bay Area
http://www.sfgate.com/c/pictures/2006/06/21/ba_worstcommute21_10.jpg
this 60 mile stretch of freeway is jampacked during traffic times and is the umbelical chord btwn The San Joaquin Valley and The Bay Area
http://map.web.mapquest.com/?e=9&GetMapDataDirect=Gme5diw%2cb%3a9u12%3b%40%24x0%2dyllf72%26%3d2l9%2dzgq672%26f%40x5ryg5%40t%2694aa0z%24xqyz00%402n56%2al%26u72u%2c%24xuza%3a%26%40%24%3alz%400hw22u%40%5fn10%40254a2u%40%24%3a9672%3b%40b20a%24%3a%26%40%24x0%2d1s0r72%26%3d2l9%2daghz72%26%40%24ndz1%7c9%402s06%40l%3ba8g5%40%24%3a9y7%3a9y7a54b5%26uza%26%402sq6%40l%3b48%3aq%40bagfrn%26%3d2l16ysu%40%5fn0%40%5fsq%40%5fll%40a0%26u7%3a162%3a10%24nqu%24n0%40yn%26y1%3a9a8%3a%294%24n9r%24n5%40anl%40%5fs5%40asg%40t%3ala7%3a9y%24n1f%24nh%402xh%40%5fx%2607x%26u%24n06%24%2el%40a0h%40%5fx%26a20%26%3d25%2601a%260y%3a1ar%3al%40a5q%40z5%26uzs%26r2%3a9fy%3aqw%24lgz%24%2elw%24gq%40an%26u20%26u2s%2608w%26a7%3a9f2%3ag6%24l5r%24n1%402n9%40y%3al41%3a%290a%3al4y%3a901%3alya%3aha%24ld0%245%26utl%26ut%3a908%3a1w%24a54%24sg%40ta%26za%3ahw%24sl%40y2%264z%3adu%24ngz%24xh%4025g%408s%26ua0%26wz%3alya%3ah0%24nlu%24%2e9w%24ngw%24%2edr%24ndy%24%2edz%24n0a%24%2egu%24gg%40%5fng%40rl%26%3da%3a1r%245q%40z%3alr%24n1%4022%26a1%3a%29u2%3alu%240%26u8su%2c7%3a9w72%210%2a%3agz7x%26%40

The SoCal region is the second most populous right after BosWash.. and dont forget that even if the bay's population grows... SoCal will continue to grow as well.. last time i checked SoCal's population was around 23 million while The Bay's was only around 7 million. So if the bay becomes like 25 million sumin... Socal will prolly be around 30 million or maybe even 40 million.. plus we got a lot more space for more population. Dun get me wrong tho i love the bay.. the bay is mah shyt nd i got hella frends livin there too.. but im juz sayin.. it wont surpass SoCal's population.