Climate model shows subtropical future for B.C.

Times Colonist (Victoria)
Wed 30 Nov 2005
Page: A6
Section: News
Dateline: MONTREAL
Source: CanWest News Service

MONTREAL -- If present-day climate trends continue, British Columbia will turn into a subtropical paradise.

But don't cash in your winter vacation airline tickets just yet -- experts say it won't happen for another 75 years.

B.C. climate analysts at the UN Conference on Climate Change predict that the province could become a garden of pecans, olives, sugar cane, oranges, lemons and cotton as a result of global warming.

Things aren't quite so optimistic for the rest of Canada, however.

Insect infestations, forest fires, floods and drought reflect the devastating impact global warming is already having on the vast Canadian landscape, according to experts from all 10 provinces and two territories.

Probably the most striking changes are occurring in the North where melting ice and permafrost are destroying roads and buildings as well as harming animal and plant life.

"We're seeing more landslides, mudslides than ever before," Robert Collins, energy resources analyst for the Yukon Energy Mines and Resources Department, said.

Like other territories and provinces, the Yukon has a booth at the conference that displays the impact of global warming on the local environment.

"In 2004, we burned twice the average forests through forest fires and 10 times [the area] that was burned the year earlier," Collins said..

Manitoba is facing "multiple impacts and they extend pretty much through the entire province," said Manitoba MLA Rob Altemeyer.

Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes are experiencing similar problems. Warmer weather, higher river and ocean levels are all effecting shorelines, farming and animal life.

Many Albertans will be living in a desert by 2080; ditto for Saskatchewan.

Insect infestations, forest fires,there goes our softwood lumber industry ....
and pinewood beetles are here to stay.

Global warming is certainly a scary thing and devistating to many people, animals and the environment although a subtropical climate here in BC would be interesting for greenthumbs etc., although I'm not supporting global warming.

There is a citrus tree that grows in SW BC that has not caught on widely yet. The Yuzu/Japanese Citron, a mix of a sour orange and citron. It is a hardy tree that can survive -12c and grows up to 25 ft. Meyer lemon, 10 degree tangerine among others can grow as well.

zuyu
http://************/i50mxf.jpg
meyer lemons in north vancouver
http://************/i50nes.jpg
garden - south Delta in suburban Vancouver
http://************/i50nx3.jpg
banana patch - south Delta
http://************/i50q45.jpg

it looks like a tropical garden .. or paradise. Ms Greenthumb lives here!
those banana trees - do they ever bear fruits?
or are they male plants?

There is a citrus tree that grows in SW BC that has not caught on widely yet. The Yuzu/Japanese Citron, a mix of a sour orange and citron. It is a hardy tree that can survive -12c and grows up to 25 ft. Meyer lemon, 10 degree tangerine among others can grow as well.


meyer lemons in north vancouver
http://************/i50nes.jpg


That Meyer lemon tree has a micronutrient deficiency - most likely a lack of magnesium.

Are you sure that the Meyer lemon isn't just grown in a pot and brought in over the winter?

as nice as subtropic sounds I really hope it doesnt happen. Global warming can be stopped.

Are you sure that the Meyer lemon isn't just grown in a pot and brought in over the winter?

These are two trees grown by a person in North Van by Ambleside Beach that's kept them outside for the past 3 years and have survived all the winters. He wraps them with a duvet and Christmas lights for warmth when it gets really cold. Apparently in the beginning he didn't and it dropped to -9 but the trees survived but the fruit did not. The tree has over a 100 lemons on it now.
In regards to deficiencies in the plant, this person fertilises with Miracid every two weeks starting in spring and sprays both sides of the leaves, perhaps these pics were taken when they needed fertiliser.

BTW, what's your weather like down there right now? I'm looking out the window right now and it's snowing big time....nice to look at but I have to venture out in it today sometime.

Climate is the average pattern of weather over the long term. The earth’s climate has warmed and cooled for millions of years, since long before we appeared on the scene. There’s no doubt that the climate is growing warmer currently; indications of that change are all around us.

Sample Forecasts of Future Temperature Change
This graph shows seven forecasts by the same climate model—seven different possible futures for the earth’s temperature. All seven forecasts can be defended as reasonable.

http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/global-effects/data/forecasts6-1.gif

Every simulation begins with assumptions. In generating the forecasts shown on this graph, researchers assumed that there would be no action to restrict future greenhouse gas emissions. But each line represents a different set of assumptions regarding future economic development and fundamental climate processes. These different assumptions generate very different future possibilities.

* I dont know how much I believe that the earth's warming is really our fault,
the earth has been heating and cooling for millions of years....

I know we have a place in what is happening , but it is also possable that at the same time it is just the natural corse of our planet as well . AKA ice age , Tropical climate etc .

These are two trees grown by a person in North Van by Ambleside Beach that's kept them outside for the past 3 years and have survived all the winters. He wraps them with a duvet and Christmas lights for warmth when it gets really cold. Apparently in the beginning he didn't and it dropped to -9 but the trees survived but the fruit did not. The tree has over a 100 lemons on it now.
In regards to deficiencies in the plant, this person fertilises with Miracid every two weeks starting in spring and sprays both sides of the leaves, perhaps these pics were taken when they needed fertiliser.

BTW, what's your weather like down there right now? I'm looking out the window right now and it's snowing big time....nice to look at but I have to venture out in it today sometime.

You can see that the tree has a micronutrient deficiency by the chlorosis in the leaves - even with Muracid. He should apply Epsom Salts (magnesium sulphate).

It's partly cloudy (unusual) here with a temp. of 76 (rather cool). Here's my place:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v311/ocean10/DSC00005s.jpg

You see grapefruit (Red Blush), Minneola tangeloes & Valencia oranges.

Is this how the Okanagan Valley will look in 100 years?

Is this how the Okanagan Valley will look in 100 years?
The Okanagan Valley already looks like that.

^^I didn't notice the citrus trees when I was there this summer.

quite possible Near our favorite little get away , Osoyoos .

Global warming is a very difficult thing to predict. It's quite possible that BC might not get as "subtropical" as predicted. Or conditions could become too arid to grow such crops as quoted without intensive irrigation. But CO2 levels are already at levels not seen in 650,000 years (as quoted in a recent news article) - or even 14 million years as some scientists say.

I've read somewhere that Vancouver's climate might become closer to that of San Francisco's by the end of this century. If that did happen, then that would mean the Okanagan having a similar climate to California's Central Valley which stretches from Redding through Sacramento to just north of LA. Edmonton's climate might end up being like southeast Wyoming or Eastern Colorado. As for Winnipeg, probably not unlike around the Twin Cities or even Iowa. Toronto could end up becoming like the Ohio Valley or the Mid-Atlantic (VA, MD, DE) part of the Eastern Seaboard. Halifax might be like NYC or New Jersey in climate. St. John's? Maybe like PEI. The climate in NWT and southern Yukon might become warm enough to allow for large-scale agriculture like that seen in the Peace Region of northeastern BC and northwest Alberta. (But the Canadian Shield will inhibit agriculture in places, especially around Yellowknife and further north) Remember, this is all just pure speculation.

A lot has been focused on the negative side of global warming rather than the positive side. Rightly so, because there is no period within the last 2 million years that has seen CO2 levels rise as fast. Same goes for methane, which is known to be an even more efficient greenhouse gas than CO2. There will no doubt be serious changes to the weather pattern that will ultimately disrupt society in many ways.

In fact, the best natural analogy to the present-day CO2/methane level rise was the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum about 55 million years ago, when there was a sharp spike in the atmospheric methane concentration and apparently turned our planet (which was already a greenhouse world much warmer than today) into an even warmer planet. That spike was probably caused by a large-scale disruption of the methane hydrate beds on the seafloor in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic, probably due to massive volcanic eruptions in the Caribbean. For a few million years after that, polar forests with cypress swamps and even 'gators thrived as far north as Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland. Tropical rainforests are known through fossil evidence to have existed at that time as far north as the Puget Sound region, which was actually slightly further north than today.

I'd like to hear more about the positive effects of global warming, because all you hear from are those with a policy agenda, and all they talk about are the negative effects to drive their agenda.

Nothing to do with Canada , but global Warming indeed, Snowing and -2 in Sanantonio right now , all streets are closed due to ICE storm !!!

I'd like to hear more about the positive effects of global warming, because all you hear from are those with a policy agenda, and all they talk about are the negative effects to drive their agenda.
people with an agenda? what secret agenda could scientists possibly have? lol
There arent really very many positive effects of climate change

people need to realise that this won't just mean warmer temperatures for everyone, this will mean more unstable, more severe weather, and colder winters for much of Canada

And people in places like BC shouldnt welcome climate change with open arms, because since the rest of Canada is predicted to become pretty much uninhabitable, imagine how crowded BC will become when 30 million people move in ;)

I dont know if global warming is caused naturally or by humans, but I dont think we should just take the chance that it's nature and keep polluting, I personally don't want to see half of Canada turn to a desert

Here's a fun fact, did you know the prairies were once so dry that Lake Winnipeg didn't exist?

people with an agenda? what secret agenda could scientists possibly have? lol
There arent really very many positive effects of climate change

people need to realise that this won't just mean warmer temperatures for everyone, this will mean more unstable, more severe weather, and colder winters for much of Canada

And people in places like BC shouldnt welcome climate change with open arms, because since the rest of Canada is predicted to become pretty much uninhabitable, imagine how crowded BC will become when 30 million people move in ;)

I dont know if global warming is caused naturally or by humans, but I dont think we should just take the chance that it's nature and keep polluting, I personally don't want to see half of Canada turn to a desert

Here's a fun fact, did you know the prairies were once so dry that Lake Winnipeg didn't exist?

Actually, there may be more benefits from global warming than you think. For one thing obviously, climatic zones will shift farther north, opening up more land for farming and making the northern regions more liveable. The need for natural gas for heating would be reduced, perhaps significantly.

It's not going be like the Day After Tomorrow. But still, I feel the costs will outweigh the benefits, like the spread of more diseases and sea level rise and increased drought conditions. That is why global warming needs to be stopped or at least slowed.

What's probably just as scary as global warming itself is that you can probably expect to see large groups that may become in favour of global warming instead of against, and pro-global warming sentiment could increase as a result.

However, as long as the human race remains technologically advanced and still remain on Earth in large numbers, I doubt the planet will go into another ice age that soon. A sudden cooling can be just as disastrous as warming. I'd say that if our planet was in danger of a sudden cooling a la Younger Dryas (period of very rapid cooling about 11,500 years ago), we'd be panicking just as much we are about global warming today.

The ideal way is to keep our planet's climate truly stable. And one day, humanity might one day be technologically advanced enough to actually control the global weather to a degree and keep it from warming up or cooling too fast. That is, if we're not stupid enough to blow ourselves up or do something else equally stupid first (like letting the global warming get really out of control, duh).

As for Lake Winnipeg drying up, that was over 6,000 years ago, during a period of what scientists call the Holocene Maximum or the Climatic Optimum. That was when the planet was slightly warmer than today, even though the large ice sheets that had covered Canada had been gone only since 10,000 years ago.

The main problem associated with climate change is not that we are in a warming trend, it is how fast such a change occurs.

You can see that the tree has a micronutrient deficiency by the chlorosis in the leaves - even with Muracid. He should apply Epsom Salts (magnesium sulphate).

Is the chlorosis of the leaves the light yellow parts near the edges and veins?

I have a couple of household citrus trees (unknown variety pulled from the compost heap) that have the same problem. So Epsom salts will do the trick? How dilute a solution? A teaspoon in a couple of litres or so?

I also have a large avocado tree with similar patterning on the leaves - same problem?

Thanks!

^^ Yes, regarding your first question on chlorosis.

The guy with the Meyer lemon should make sure the pH is in the right range - around 5.5 to 6.5. If the pH is outside that range, it must be corrected first. Then add some Epsom salts (magnesium sulphate). This won't do any harm, but it may do some good.

Now about your plants:

1) get a soil testing kit from a nursery, and test the pH - for citrus the ideal is about 5.8 (so 5.5 to 6.5 is fine).

2) the pattern of the chlorosis gives you clues to what micronutrient the plant is deficient in, but it is important to understand that chlorosis does indeed indicate a deficiency in one of the micronutrients. The main ones are: zinc, iron, manganese, and magnesium.

3) with potted citrus, iron deficiency is often an issue induced by overwatering.

The reason why pH is so important is because certain micronutrients become "locked up" in the soil and unavailable to the plant if the pH is outside the proper range. Often, when you correct an improper soil pH, the chlorosis goes away.

If you post a photo of a chlorotic leaf I may be able to tell you what the deficiency is.

When using Epsom salts, you mix about one heaping tablespoon to one gallon of water. In citrus a magnesium deficiency is associated with a green "V" shape at the base of the leaf while the rest of the leaf is mainly yellow. In the photo of the Meyer lemon, I see a hint of that pattern - but it isn't very marked.

Tons of helpful info here:

http://forums.gardenweb.com/forums/citrus/

Dr. Malcolm Manners (a professor and consultant to the Florida citrus industry) writes on that forum and he is one of the world's top experts on citrus. When he gets stuck on a question he only has to ask me for the answer. ;) :jk:

Thanks!

I've read elsewhere on the Net that Avocados are pH sensitive - so I think that's the problem on that one.

I'll try to post a pic of the citrus in the next couple of days. Thanks again.

http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d85/rhino8484/plants005.jpg
http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d85/rhino8484/plants006.jpg

Taken today , Maybe we are closer to sub Tropics then not?
by the way these were taken In Kamloops , anyone else Know if these should survive here with out protection ?

Global warming benefits Canada--- as we can have more farmland, and more trees further North...

^ it's both a benefit and a disaster.

And people in places like BC shouldnt welcome climate change with open arms, because since the rest of Canada is predicted to become pretty much uninhabitable, imagine how crowded BC will become when 30 million people move in ;)
Don't forget the 300 million Americans who'll be looking north for a new place to live when their land burns out even more severely. Not to mention those from every present tropical and subtropical locale that will be a barren wasteland.

Actually, there may be more benefits from global warming than you think. For one thing obviously, climatic zones will shift farther north, opening up more land for farming and making the northern regions more liveable. The need for natural gas for heating would be reduced, perhaps significantly.
Air conditioning is a far greater energy hog than heating.

Interesting. Great replies CanadianCentaur.

Id still rather be running AC then heat .

Global warming benefits Canada--- as we can have more farmland, and more trees further North...
more farmland? Global warming is predicted to turn the prairies into a desert, wouldnt that destroy most of Canada's farmland?

As a Saskatchewan boy, I'm not looking forward to another dust bowl

more farmland? Global warming is predicted to turn the prairies into a desert, wouldnt that destroy most of Canada's farmland?

As a Saskatchewan boy, I'm not looking forward to another dust bowl

Indeed, anyone on the prairies should not be looking forward to the effects of global warming. The possibility of the Bow River being reduced to a trickle is a threat that Calgarians are starting to take rather seriously, which is one of the reasons that support for groups like the Green party is relatively strong here.

more farmland? Global warming is predicted to turn the prairies into a desert, wouldnt that destroy most of Canada's farmland?

As a Saskatchewan boy, I'm not looking forward to another dust bowl

Global warming turns eastern parts of boreal forest into farmland... and Central Saskatchewan would become somewhat like Montana and Southern Saskatchewan would become desert. Then we also lose some farmlands, and I did not notice that. Calgary becomes something like Denver, which is not a good thing.

http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d85/rhino8484/plants005.jpg
http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d85/rhino8484/plants006.jpg

Taken today , Maybe we are closer to sub Tropics then not?
by the way these were taken In Kamloops , anyone else Know if these should survive here with out protection ?

Those 2 plants dont really say anything about Kamloops. For one thing there is snow on the ground. Second, both those plants are tiny and could have been planted this year, and will likely die with sustained snow and ice cover. Not close to sub-tropics at all.

You can plant a baby windmill palm in Vancouver soil and see it grow to maturity, un protected, on its own. You can't really do that in a place like Kamloops.

Global warming turns eastern parts of boreal forest into farmland... and Central Saskatchewan would become somewhat like Montana and Southern Saskatchewan would become desert. Then we also lose some farmlands, and I did not notice that. Calgary becomes something like Denver, which is not a good thing.
Thats even worse!

So the ugly farmland of Saskatchewan will become uglier, and the beautiful forests of northern Saskatchewan will turn into ugly farmland?

Indeed, anyone on the prairies should not be looking forward to the effects of global warming. The possibility of the Bow River being reduced to a trickle is a threat that Calgarians are starting to take rather seriously, which is one of the reasons that support for groups like the Green party is relatively strong here.
I'm glad to see something wake those Albertan up to environmental reality. I was getting to be of the impression that they were all of the "As long as people keep buying our oil, all is good" mindset.

I understand where your comming from , both plants are 2 years old and still doing quite well thank you. what I am surprised about is how well they are doing seeing that I was told neather would survive here.

Thats even worse!

So the ugly farmland of Saskatchewan will become uglier, and the beautiful forests of northern Saskatchewan will turn into ugly farmland?

There's no way to avoid this when global warming is severe. We still need crops to eat... Forest would move further northeast. Southern Saskatchewan is vulnerable to desertification right now, like Montana, and even Southwestern Manitoba! But Northern Saskatchewan would become more fertile because of warmer temperature in summer makes it like Central Manitoba around Lake Winnipeg or Southwestern Ontario. So Canada would not suffer too much compared to most countries in our planet in case of severe global warming. (Severe means about +5C change in average temperature, not the case that boils Canada) Our Southern neighbour US would become even worse, Texas becomes wasteland and all southeastern states become Tropical jungle like Amazon. Midwest like Iowa would become something like Oklahoma. California would be tropical grassland. Pacific coast would be subtropical grassland/forest. All over North America would become totally different--- Here in Thompson, it would be the southern fringe of the boreal forest by then.

I understand where your comming from , both plants are 2 years old and still doing quite well thank you. what I am surprised about is how well they are doing seeing that I was told neather would survive here.

How often do you have snow on the ground?

How often do you have snow on the ground?

What kind of plant is that (not the Rhodo - the spikey one)?

Both of those can survive Calgary winters as well (somewhat protected - by fence, house, etc) - I have a rhodo in my backyard, and it looks exactly the same right now :)

...that being said, if they can survive Calgary's extremes (yesterday +14c, last week -20c), it can grow anywhere :) .

Also, I do love the variety of plants and greenery in Vancouver - including the odd windmill palms (trachycarpus fortunei). But, despite being a zone 7-8 region, it is also the hardiest of palm trees, where a mature tree can be expected to survive -20c.

It also grows in parts of europe, such as the UK, and south Germany. They should also be protected for the first year or two in the Van area (not as necessary on the island - but still a good measure), as a quick dip in temperature could kill young trees (like the -10c for a few days last Jan).

westcoast604

weve had snow for 1 week , usually 2-3 weeks a year ( may not be stat that someone from Newfound land will find to back that up , but it is true. )
We the last week have not dropped below +4 , and we have been sitting around + 9 for highs for last week or so . Supposed to hit +15 today and maybe +19 tomorow!Ill try to take another pick showing the amount of snow today when I get off work.

Here is the same palm today , with of course no snow
http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d85/rhino8484/7008226a.jpg

Here is the same palm today , with of course no snow
http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d85/rhino8484/7008226a.jpg

Your cordyline looks healthy enough right now, but so do most that have been left outside since summer. They are still all over the place in the ground in Halifax and Cape Breton but they honestley don't have a snowballs chance in hell of surviving the winter here or in Kamloops. The rhodo on the other hand should survive no problem.

Well I do hope my " Cordyline " makes it ( I did not know what it was called ) .
right now im pretty optomistic.

double post sorry

Your cordyline looks healthy enough right now, but so do most that have been left outside since summer. They are still all over the place in the ground in Halifax and Cape Breton but they honestley don't have a snowballs chance in hell of surviving the winter here or in Kamloops. The rhodo on the other hand should survive no problem.

I agree. They often die in Vancouver even if we get a bad cold snap. Definately a short-term outdoor plant in your climate.

Rhino,

If your Cordy ever survives a winter and reaches maturity it would look like these ones growing in Denmark.

http://img392.imageshack.us/img392/4592/imgp11447st.jpg

Well all thumbs are up right now , standing at 2 1/2 feet tall and Ive noticed a trunk !