The exodus has begun....I'm telling ya, buy north florida real estate. You won't be sorry in 5-10 years!

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/sfl-mayocol01jan01,0,6372302.column?track=mostemailedlink



Paradise lost? South Florida moves to tipping point

Published January 1, 2006

From her seat behind the rental counter at the U-Haul Center on State Road 84 near Interstate 95 in Fort Lauderdale, Belkis Lopez has noticed a shift in the past year.

More trucks are leaving town than arriving.

"A lot of people are getting out of here," Lopez said. "Working people who say they can't afford living here, people who've been here 50 years, retirees who say their money can go a lot further up north."

Some go as close as Fort Pierce and Port St. Lucie. Many have been going to Pensacola and Tallahassee. Some go to Georgia, North Carolina and beyond.

She rattled off the list of one-way rental destinations for the past week: Ohio, Las Vegas, two in North Florida.

"I hear the same complaints [about South Florida] all the time," said Lopez, 23, who has worked at the U-Haul Center for two years. "Too expensive, too crowded, too much traffic."

It's a new year in South Florida, and there seems to be a new vibe, too.

Not too long ago, this area seemed like paradise: great weather and a relatively affordable lifestyle, with housing that seemed a steal compared with other major metropolitan areas.

But now paradise has been lost, what with hurricanes every other week, a real estate market that only a Wall Street millionaire could afford, the cost of everything from health care to FPL bills soaring and salaries not keeping pace.

During the past few months, since Hurricane Wilma, almost every interview and casual conversation I've had with ordinary people inevitably drifts to thoughts of leaving.

"I'm seriously thinking about getting out of the area," Linda Mastriana, 57, said a few days after Wilma. She has lived and worked in Fort Lauderdale for 28 years, but she said the coming increase in windstorm insurance rates might be her breaking point.

"The cost of living is just getting out of hand, and the wages are simply not keeping up," Mastriana said. She said her native Ohio keeps looking better, winters and all.

South Florida has always been a transient area. But now it's also longtime residents, people who thought they were going to be lifers, who are pulling up stakes.

People like Martha Norona. Norona's family moved to South Florida from Massachusetts in 1957, when she was 4. In August, one week before Hurricane Katrina hit, Norona sold her house in Dania Beach and moved to Tallahassee.

Norona, 52, moved to be near her two grandchildren and daughter, who works at Florida State University, but also for a less hectic lifestyle.

"I knew things were expensive [in South Florida], but I didn't realize how expensive until I got here," she said. "I only need one insurance policy for my home now. It's wonderful."

In South Florida, she paid more than $2,000 a year for homeowner's, flood and windstorm insurance, another $2,000 in property taxes and $159 a month for auto insurance. In Tallahassee, she pays $800 a year for property insurance, $1,200 in property taxes and $88 a month for auto insurance.

She sold her South Florida house, a small two-bedroom, for $325,000. In Tallahassee, she bought a three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with a fireplace, wooden deck and two-car garage for $180,000. She had plenty left over to buy a winter wardrobe.

"I paid off everything I owed, put money in the bank, bought a beautiful house and can afford to work part-time," she said. "I don't regret it for a minute. I miss my friends and my family, but to me it's like heaven up here. … Everyone's in a good mood. Even the stock boys at Wal-Mart say hello to you. People don't cut you off in traffic. If you put your blinker on, they actually let you in."

Government planners and private builders still forecast unbridled growth for Broward, with no shortage of high-end developments and high-rise condominiums on the drawing boards. But you wonder, who'll be able to afford it?

The big question for the new year and beyond: Can South Florida's middle class hold? Or will more people cash out, pack up and escape from a lost paradise?

Michael Mayo can be reached at mmayo@sun-sentinel.com or 954-356-4508.

The exodus has begun....I'm telling ya, buy north florida real estate. You won't be sorry in 5-10 years!Yeah...he's right! No body goes there anymore, it's too crowded.
Pick a county, any county in north Florida, and I'll bet that author $100 that Miami-Dade gains more residents than the north Florida county from 2006 until 2011.
"Paradise Lost", puuuhhhhleeeease!
When I was a kid, my great Aunt moved from Miamuh back to North Carolina and she predicted that working people were leaving Miami because Miamuh was getting too crowded, and then she whined about the Cubans.
That was 1950. She was a bit off on her prediction, but it goes to show that some people will whine and complain and move from South Florida, and for everyone that leaves, plenty more are born or move in. We aren't losing population any time soon.

well what about the construction workers,real estate agents,condo flippers,developers,planners,architects they all seem to be moving here lol

I think you missed the point of the article.

It's not that Miami-Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach will be losing people. It's that the middle class has been squeezed out by increased expenses and there will be increased economic stratification in the population gain of South Florida. In other words, the rich people who can afford to move here will continue to do so, the poor immigrants who have family here and no other options will continue to come and will take on the low-paying jobs to service the rich people who will move here.

The middle class who are mobile will get squeezed by higher taxes, insurance, stagnant wages, and sell their homes, take out their home equity to buy homes in cash in north florida, with money left over to have a more stressfree life. There will be lots more people like that lady in the article, who quit full-time work for part time work with her equity as the south florida boomers retire OUTSIDE of south florida....

This is happening. And there is money to be made. I will bet you $100 roark that a portfolio of properties in Gainesville, Ocala, Palm Coast, and St. Augustine will have higher appreciation returns in percentage than a portfolio of South Florida properties in 10 years...

^^ poor people, not middle class. I'am middle class and I doubt I will be moving out anytime soon, and I live in a very big house at that.

looks like the sun sentinel has miami herald syndrome... THE APOCALYPSE IS NEAR!

I don't understand why there isn't addtional low-income housing down here. Why have no developers stepped up to create urban housing projects and rental units for low-income residents, especially in Broward and Palm Beach counties? Haven't the counties made ANY laws or regulations for developers to create this type of housing? I don't think the problem is as much about the wages failing to go up as it is about the cost of living and inventory of affordable housing down here. Something must be done soon.

Well, it's damned if you do, damned if you don't. Anytime anyone wants to build anything anywhere, let alone create affordable or "low-income" housing that might scare people and lower property values, the NIMBY's come out of the woodwork to complain.

And when the developers try to extend the UDB in Dade, well you get world war III with the environmentalists.

The cost of construction is also very high now with all the luxury condos and the labor and supply disruptions because of the hurricanes.

It's unfavorable economically for developers to build anything affordable without low-income tax credits and there's a lot of bureaucratic hoops and bullshit to get those.

Wow South Florida is becoming like California already people sell the houses for more than they bought it for and moving elsewhere and basically killing the low and middle class.

I can see this getting worse. LA sure isnt paradise but the county has massive growth, and its expensive as hell. The thing is poor foriegn born residents dont mind living in crowded conditions, but most of us do. They really add to the population of LA, but that doesnt mean the middle class isnt moving on. I know they are because I lived in a place many were going. The middle class is going to leave and Miami will be left with the very rich and the very poor. And with the rich downtowners beging from out of the area, and gone a lot I would imagine, they wont care about the poor at all. Ignore the poor and you get riots. People can only put up with BS for so long before they break. But time will tell..I think it will tell us pretty soon about this subject.

I think you missed the point of the article.No man, I got it loud and clear. It is a doomy gloomy article about the plight of the so-called middle class people that the columnit selected to make the preconceived point.
Notice how they interviewed a 57 year old lady that "can't take it anymore". She complained (or maybe the author insinuated) that wages aren't keeping up with housing/insurance costs. I wish they would have asked her what her computer proficiency level was.
The reality is that, as the economy continues to change from a manufacturing based to an information based economy, the people that live in beautiful sunny places are going to be displaced if they don't get off of their arses and get retrained. If you are standing still, you are falling behind. When this old lady leaves for whatever the reason, the house probably won't stay empty. One or two more people will move into it. Probably people that can use a computer and contribute to a bustling economy. That single person will move to where she doesn't have to produce much to earn a living.
That may or may not come off as harsh, I love old ladies as much as the next guy, but it is a pretty simple truth.
It's not that Miami-Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach will be losing people. It's that the middle class has been squeezed out by increased expenses and there will be increased economic stratification in the population gain of South Florida. In other words, the rich people who can afford to move here will continue to do so, the poor immigrants who have family here and no other options will continue to come and will take on the low-paying jobs to service the rich people who will move here.Or how about this idea...the poor and middle class will work harder/smarter to live in the city. They will locate themselves to were the "rich people" live and work and aspire to something greater than to be poor. They will sit together at Starbuck's, in the garage, or at Miami Dade College and be the next Hewlett & Packard. Skyscrapers are built by risk takers and dreamers, city dwellers thrive on the idea that hard work and good thinking will lead to greatness. I don't think that most middle class people get "squeezed out". Squeezed up for some, and maybe squeezed out for some. But it serves cities well to have the best and brightest concentrated in the city centers. Don't get me wrong, great cities have a mix, leader's in the city of Miami claim to be addressing a Manhattan-esque rent control idea before it gets out of hand. I am personally doing what I can do to address it as well.

The middle class who are mobile will get squeezed by higher taxes, insurance, stagnant wages, and sell their homes, take out their home equity to buy homes in cash in north florida, with money left over to have a more stressfree life. There will be lots more people like that lady in the article, who quit full-time work for part time work with her equity as the south florida boomers retire OUTSIDE of south florida....Hmmm....I think you got it. There are lots of people like that lady that would rather not work hard, not retrain herself, or not go back to school. That is fine, it is a great free country. But why does the newspaper have to make it look like it is the fault of the productive people because she doesn't want to make an effort?

This is happening. And there is money to be made. I will bet you $100 roark that a portfolio of properties in Gainesville, Ocala, Palm Coast, and St. Augustine will have higher appreciation returns in percentage than a portfolio of South Florida properties in 10 years...So you aren't going to take my original bet? My challenge was to the notion that South Florida is losing population. It isn't true. There really isn't much of an "exodus" to be worried about, is there. If you accept my challenge, I'll consider yours! How about this one, it's pretty similar concept to your bet. I'll bet I reduce the percentage of strokes in my golf game by more than Tiger Woods in the next 5 years. My game is about as bad as Ocalas! Of course we will improve more from where we are!!

The point the paper is trying to make is that where we live is so bad that people are renting every U-Haul one way out of town. My point is, NO THEY ARE NOT!
By the way, what the hell kind of journalist writes this junk?
But now paradise has been lost, what with hurricanes every other week, a real estate market that only a Wall Street millionaire could afford, the cost of everything from health care to FPL bills soaring and salaries not keeping pace.Yeah...I hope the "Wall Street Millionaires" price the writer of the article out. With that kind of attitude, it's a shame to have to share the sunshine!!! :) just kidding! He won't get priced out, it's the gullable people thatread his stuff as gospel that might.
Oh yeah, Logy that is a great idea about picking a portfolio and just monitoring it for 5 years. That could be a lot of fun!

well what about the construction workers,real estate agents,condo flippers,developers,planners,architects they all seem to be moving here lolYeah! You are right. Some of them were already in Miami for a while. I know one pretty well that was a poor to middle class bartender that was inspired to get involved in something better!
Do you think the Herald will ever interview them?!?

logy's kind of a gloomy type.

Nah, roark. I may be gloomy but I'm not a fool. ;) I agree it's an asinine proposition that Dade will lose population. It's been a steady increase of about 30,000-40,000 people for like 40 years except one year after Hurricane Andrew where Dade lost population.

But yeah, I do think it would be fun to play a real estate investment game here. We could each start with a couple million or so and select a portfolio of properties in the MLS. Every couple months, we value them based on sales comparables to see how our portfolios are doing!

Maybe I'm to harsh on the Herald! They have interviewed successful people (I know this guy, and have been to his house, I can't imagine why a crackhead would even approach him!).
Here is an article today that explains zackly what I'm talking about. The middle class that gets left behind are the middle class that aren't buying real estate. Check out the middle class guy that bought real estate in a bad neighborhood and is reaping the rewards of his industriousness to move into Morningside (that is and has traditionally been a upper middle class neighborhood). The other guy in the article is selling and buying Intracostal property. Both moved from the burbs to Miami, and both are moving up the socio-economic scale.

Miami's real estate gamble BY LISA ARTHUR THE MIAMI HERALD (http://www.gainesville.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060103/WIRE/201030306/1117/news)

Miami developer, national group building affordable housing here

By Deserae del Campo
One affordable housing project is under construction and two are in preliminary stages thanks to a national nonprofit affordable-housing group and a Miami developer.
More affordable housing for Miami residents is close to becoming a reality after the National Housing Development Corp., an organization specializing in affordable-home placement, and developer Salomon Yuken collaborated to create affordable-housing projects in Little Havana, Overtown and Flagami.
The corporation will own the projects, and a subsidiary, NHDC Barcelona, is developing them along with Mr. Yuken.
"These are the types of projects we hope will continue in the future," said Armando Bucelo, Miami director of National Housing Development and member of the Little Havana Home Ownership Advisory Board. "Thanks to the help of an amazing board of directors, this is the first time we have these projects available for residents to own the property, not rent them."
In Miami, a family whose income does not exceed 80% of the median citywide income, $34,921, qualifies for affordable housing.
A family of three must have a total income of less than $38,950, while a family of seven must have an income of $53,650 or less to qualify for affordable housing in Miami.
National Housing Development specializes in buying, revitalizing and renting out existing properties nationwide to families in need of affordable housing. The three projects in Miami are its first here at which families can purchase and own units.
Barcelona Condominiums, under construction at 2217 SW Seventh St. in Flagami, will include 71 condos.
"Construction is complete for the garage, and the pool deck is being worked on now," said Mr. Yuken, a member of the Little Havana Home Ownership Advisory Board. "We expect to finish with construction sometime in March, with the grand opening sometime in September 2006." Mr. Yuken expects to finish the Barcelona tower by Jan. 15.
The third project, Latin Q Condominium Towers at 420 SW 12th St. in Little Havana, is a 14-story residential structure with 72 affordable condos. The first floor will include 2,555 square feet of retail space.
Latin Q is in preliminary stages. Mr. Yuken said he hopes construction can begin in February.
There are also plans to develop Overtown Condominiums, to include 30 townhouses in three separate locations in Overtown, Mr. Yuken said. "The Overtown Condominiums are also in preliminary phases in the City of Miami's Building Department."
"The bottom line," said Mr. Bucelo, "is that these projects benefit people in need of housing."

Good article:

http://www.miamitodaynews.com/news/060105/story-viewpoint.shtml

The question to kick off 2006: Are we top-ish in housing?

By Michael Lewis
The year begins with no clearer sign of where the housing boom is headed than we had at the outset of 2005. Everyone is asking everyone else when demand is going to begin falling and how fast.
"Are we top-ish?" I was asked at dinner last week - a normal question, except the questioner was an expert and he was asking the newspaperman.
That tells it all - the experts are fishing for signs wherever they find them.
The expert didn't ask the out-of-towner beside him who'd just helped finance several local condo projects. Maybe that's because the financier had also just asked me about the market.
In turn, I'd told them of a financial whiz who for years had been telling me the bubble was due to burst. Now, that expert is talking about holding onto more units in his own developments because he sees values going only one way - up. Thus doth the pessimist turn.
That leaves us all reading tealeaves to draw what meaning we can.
Leaf one: Prices of Miami resale homes rose 31% in November, exactly the average for the state, but Miami sales fell 25% while statewide sales rose 1%. Fort Lauderdale followed the pattern, with prices up 29% and sales down 21%.
What does that leaf show us? Ron Shuffield, who grew Esslinger Wooten Maxwell Realtors into a local powerhouse, says we have to discount patterns in the fourth-quarter sales because the impact of hurricanes makes historic comparisons meaningless.
Still, a lot more single-family homes seem to be going on the resale block than are moving off it, putting buyers onto a more even footing with sellers, who have been calling the shots since the market began to sizzle.
The figures show something else: The median resale price was $381,600 in a county where the median household income was $37,000. Those numbers indicate that the average Miamian has precious little chance to own a home if he doesn't already.
So in the midst of a boom, the people who make this community tick are forced out of the game. How many non-local buyers will we find for the 100,000-plus units being built or in the pipeline countywide? If most buyers aren't outsiders, most of what's being built will wind up as rentals or vacant.
Leaf two: An unbuilt 318-unit luxury condo complex that was 75% sold is returning deposits and closing shop. Mission Bell Park's buyers are getting their money back with interest.
This doesn't show a crumbling market - the developer, the Codina Group, simply didn't get construction approvals in time to meet agreements with buyers. It says nothing about the strength or ability of the developer, the quality of the project or the condo market.
But it does raise a question: Will all those condos that have been resold pre-construction at rising prices actually get built? As material and labor costs soar, will developers find that construction would leave them in the red? Do they have the wherewithal and backbone to finish the job?
Leaf three: As interest rates rise, will condo speculators with variable-rate mortgages be able to hold on once they close contracts if demand dips while more and more condos are built?
I said "if" demand dips. Experts say "when." They assume some prices will fall. The questions are whether this will be universal or confined to less-desirable locations, whether it will be a correction or a nosedive (most experts don't see a precipitous drop) and, most important, when the market will shift from positive to negative.
Leaf four: How will the community affect prices and demand?
The Northeasterner who helps developers find financing told me he thinks we're building topflight residences, greatly enhancing Miami-Dade's attractiveness globally. On the other side of the coin, he questions whether our transportation network will support our lifestyle. Will we be able to get from here to there?
Another bellwether is leadership. Miami city government is light years ahead of the 1990s. County government, though much reviled, has avoided recent scandals and often functions well, something we couldn't have said with a straight face a few years back.
How does that affect housing demand? Think about where you'd want to live. It doesn't depend on just sun and sand, does it? A few years ago, some quite sane business folks told me they'd never have a business within Miami city limits. Nobody says that now.
Brew the tea leaves together. We see a great community, great housing rising but far too much of a good thing, interest changes that will imperil speculative buyers, costs squeezing developers, too little housing for Miamians and too much being built for a market that's less stable because it's not here 365 days a year - or even 180.
Which leaves us with few answers and still asking, "Are we top-ish?"
The good news is, for better or worse, that we are about to find out.

Great article,and that is the $64,000 question. No one knows which way its going to go, but if I was a developer I dont think I would be putting any new projects forth at this time. Let them finish a few more and see what happens to the market. That stat about the average income being $37,000 and the average home price $370,000 is really bad. The price to income is out of whack. Where I live in small town Minnesota those numbers are $44,000 and $110,000 and our home ownership rate is 74%.

Columbia Journalism Review (http://www.cjr.org/issues/2006/1/austin.asp) slams the Herald for being too pro-development.

Great article,and that is the $64,000 question. No one knows which way its going to go, but if I was a developer I dont think I would be putting any new projects forth at this time. Let them finish a few more and see what happens to the market. That stat about the average income being $37,000 and the average home price $370,000 is really bad. The price to income is out of whack. Where I live in small town Minnesota those numbers are $44,000 and $110,000 and our home ownership rate is 74%.The household income to housing price benchmark is outdated, and isn't used by developers or anyone that knows the Miami market. Real estate is local. That benchmark uses gross income without consideration for local or state tax rates. Once you compare aftertax income available for housing, Miami isn't in such bad shape. Factor in cultural variables and what Michael Cannon has aptly called the "Miami's Underground Economy" and that ratio makes even less sense.
Here is a less valuable question, maybe a $3,200 one, If you were a developer and you were going to wait, then you wouldn't really being developing anything, so would you still be a developer? :)

Columbia Journalism Review (http://www.cjr.org/issues/2006/1/austin.asp) slams the Herald for being too pro-development.Wow, did you notice that the author is Tom Austin? Isn't that the same Tom Austin that writes/wrote for the Miami New Times? I think it's the Miami New Times responsibility to slam the Herald 24/7, hmmm...that sounds like a good job!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060120/us_nm/economy_newyorkcity_dc

South Florida is like New York City's 6th borough. You can bet if the housing market there crashes there will be some ripple effects in South Florida.



NYC mayor: housing market "dramatically" slowing

Fri Jan 20, 1:14 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Friday said the real estate market was slowing "dramatically" and only a "miracle" could stop soaring mortgage rates from eating into housing prices.

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Consumers are definitely feeling the pinch of higher mortgage lending rates and are not quite as eager to snap up a new home especially at time when house prices in the Big Apple are near record-highs, the Republican mayor said in his weekly radio show.

"The real estate market is slowing down dramatically and we're going to have a problem down the road," Bloomberg said.

"If people who want to sell their houses have to wait a longer time before someone comes along and buys it, it would be a miracle if prices didn't start to go down," he said.

The most recent data compiled by Prudential Douglas Elliman show the volume of sales of Manhattan apartments dropped.

The survey also showed the number of for-sale units piled up in the last quarter of 2005, while buyers took longer to commit to a purchase although prices have not yet taken much of a hit as a result.

Bloomberg, who won a second term in office in November by a landslide, said property taxes were on the rise, but were not climbing as fast as the values of the properties themselves, as state laws limit how much taxes can rise.

But homebuyers are not just burdened by higher property prices and taxes, he said.

"Rates for mortgages are 200 basis points higher than a year ago, the cost of heating oil -- we all know has gone up -- and taxes have gone up and expenses have gone up," he said.

The New York State Financial Control Board estimated in December that real property taxes -- the city's biggest and fastest-growing tax -- will produce $12.6 billion in the current fiscal year.

New York State Comptroller Alan Hevesi has estimated New York City could end the current fiscal year with a surplus of almost $3.0 billion, thanks in large part to the housing market.

The city does face budget gaps in the future, and the mayor defended the practice of handing out tickets for nuisance violations as being preferable to a tax increase.

"They (tickets) are a source of revenue to the city and somebody's got to pay the bills," he said.

"It saves us from having to charge more taxes so to say the money isn't useful is ridiculous," he added.

The mayor denied the city had set formal quotas for the number of tickets -- for minor offenses, such as parking -- issued in order to raise revenue collections. Instead, the city has performance targets, he said.

You can bet if the housing market there crashes there will be some ripple effects in South Florida.Yeah!
What "ripple effects"??? Are you suggesting that NYC will have negative "ripple effects" on the South Florida market?
My experience suggests otherwise. If the economy in NYC or Buenos Aires or Paris or Caracas or New Orleans or etc etc etc goes south, intelligent investors often look to Miami.
If you need further examples over the last decade in real estate, I'll be happy to share them.
Real Estate is local. Maybe...just maybe, the same thing will cause Manhattan real estate to "crash" as will cause Florida real estate to experience a trough...but I doubt it.
Although some would say that Miami is the 6th borrow, anyone with a brain will recognize that there are ZERO city and state income taxes in Miami, and double digit income taxes in those other five borroughs. Also, the weather and proximaty to South America is bit different. Big Apple to Oranges. People with money know this...and that is one reason why they are buying Miami.
But then again, Real Estate 101, Manhattan will not "crash" or "burst". It will go through a cycle (refer to that same ole jpg that I've posted many times with the textbook real estate cycle). Just because Manhattan does, doesn't necessarily mean that South Florida will.

miami is new yorks sixth borough

its also chicago's extreme south side

and havana's northern most suburb, and look at their real estate market... lol

its alotta things, new yorkers just like to say they own shit

theres plenty of other places miami is closely linked to... and its that diversity that keeps it from being dependent on other real estate markets

miami is new yorks sixth borough its also chicago's extreme south side and havana's northern most suburb, and look at their real estate market... theres plenty of other places miami is closely linked to... and its that diversity that keeps it from being dependent on other real estate marketsWord!

My DH and I just got back from Jackson Hole WY, what a wonderful town (our 2nd visit & many more to come). Real Estate there is also high, a 735sq ft condo ranges from $250k & up. So, the price of Real Estate is about the same or higher anywhere you go. Now, I think the problem here in our state is the low wages that don't seem to go up. I understand Roark's point of view to better oneself, but another problem here is that residents live way beyond their means and even making good money we spend it all. No savings, no nothing. People instead of thinking investments for the long run they think sell my house & buy a bigger one for myself and so on. Many people don't think of the future, you buy now sell later & retire comfortably. I have several properties but I know what I can afford for a good return & I wish I will have more money to continue my investments. I don't make much, and yes I spend most of my check but I try to plan ahead, that is where my investments come in. It's all about what you do w/your money.....

My DH and I just got back from Jackson Hole WY, what a wonderful town (our 2nd visit & many more to come). Real Estate there is also high, a 735sq ft condo ranges from $250k & up. So, the price of Real Estate is about the same or higher anywhere you go. Now, I think the problem here in our state is the low wages that don't seem to go up. I understand Roark's point of view to better oneself, but another problem here is that residents live way beyond their means and even making good money we spend it all. No savings, no nothing. People instead of thinking investments for the long run they think sell my house & buy a bigger one for myself and so on. Many people don't think of the future, you buy now sell later & retire comfortably. I have several properties but I know what I can afford for a good return & I wish I will have more money to continue my investments. I don't make much, and yes I spend most of my check but I try to plan ahead, that is where my investments come in. It's all about what you do w/your money.....Hey! What are the wages in Jackson Hole?? I got news for you zpcsc...you aren't far from the norm! you have enough money to travel wherever you want and when you have good experience, you may go back a couple of more times. Having been in the Real estate industry for more than a decade, we in south Florida experience a similar situation. People come once and have a good time...they come again and have a better time, they come the third time and buy a condo!!!!
Local wages aren't really much of a factor (of course their are other reasons why documented wages dont' matter, but i've railed on about that enough) No matter what the majority of people posting here are posting...a significant number of investors are like you. That is a great thing.
Posters here, that think that real estate is going to get cheaper don't own any.
The MAJORITY of people that are buying preconstruction are aware of the risk and are willing to take it for the large return. If they are wrong....c'est la vie. The people that didn't invest and have been yappin' for a bubble can dance in the streets when the investors like us only make 200% cash on cash.
Eventually, the market will not sustain 39% annual growth. The bubble people will be waiting for a long time for the market to go down 39% EACH YEAR for the next 5 years.
You have to feel sorry for the people that have been sitting in "vulture funds". Eventually, the market wont grow as much as it is now...but for now, there is not reason to believe that there is slow down.

Looks like the easy money days in South Florida real estate are over, at least for now.

*paging roark to go on a rant why the sun-sentinel is wrong*

Selling a home? Be prepared to wait months, not days, for a buyer

By Paul Owers
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Posted January 26 2006

Fred Stokes just listed his three-bedroom lakefront home in Boca Raton for $439,900, and interest from buyers has been slow so far. Last year, his daughter sold her home nearby in a week for more than she was asking, but he realizes the real estate market has changed.

"The way I look at it is, I live in paradise," said Stokes, 60, a grandfather of eight who has no immediate plans to cut his asking price. "If I have patience, I'll eventually make money on the house."

Patience is the new buzzword for sellers in South Florida as the once-hot housing market cools off.

The Florida Association of Realtors said Wednesday that median sales prices of existing homes rose across South Florida in December compared with the figures a year ago, but prices have essentially remained flat during the past six months.

"In today's market, [rapid] appreciation can't be counted on like it was a year or two ago," said David Dabby, a Coral Gables-based real estate analyst. "If you're buying a home for that reason, don't buy it."

The December median -- half the homes sold for more, half for less -- rose 22 percent, to $369,000, in Broward. It rose 20 percent to $408,200 in Palm Beach County, and 27 percent to $377,700 in Miami-Dade.

But from July to December, median prices declined in Broward and increased slightly in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties.

The number of home sales also has dropped steadily across the region -- by about 40 percent in December, compared with the year-ago period. Agents attribute the decline to rising prices and interest rates and to the lingering effects of Hurricane Wilma, which hit South Florida on Oct. 24.

"There's more looking than there are [contracts]," said Fort Lauderdale agent Marilynn Obrig, a spokeswoman for the Broward Master Brokers Forum. "There's a change in the level of excitement or motivation to buy right now. It's not quite as frenzied."

Nationally, home sales fell 5.7 percent last month, to a 6.6 million annual rate, their lowest level since March 2004, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales still finished 2005 at an all-time high of 7.072 million.

Florida also enjoyed a record year for closings (248,565) and median price ($235,100).

Overall in 2005, median prices increased 29 percent, to $361,100, in Broward and 30 percent, to $390,100, in Palm Beach County, compared with 2004. Miami-Dade's median rose 28 percent, to $351,200. Existing home sales fell across all three counties in 2005.

The Florida statistics reflect only single-family houses, but the national numbers include townhomes, condominiums and co-ops.

While the South Florida market remains strong, it's clearly in transition, agents say.

It used to be that homes selling for less than $1 million had multiple offers and were scooped up in two to 10 days, said Scott Agran, president of Lang Realty in Boca Raton and Palm Beach Gardens. Now those multiple offers have mostly dried up, and sellers have to wait two months or more before getting sales contracts.

"Buyers are more methodical and not as quick to pull the trigger," Agran said. "After the [tourist] season, I think we could see things lean more to the buyer's side."

Greg Silva, 54, has tried to sell his home in Lighthouse Point, originally listed at $2.6 million, since March but the luxury market has lagged. He finally signed a contract for $200,000 less than he had asked and hopes to close next month.

Silva, the chief executive of a martial arts management firm, wants to see the housing market shift so young people and middle-class consumers can afford to buy. His 27-year-old daughter hopes to live in Delray Beach, where prices of townhomes start in the mid-$300,000 range, he said.

"Where do they come up with the down payment?" Silva said. "It's tough for young people to get started with prices the way they are."

And that's exactly why the market needs to correct itself, said Mike Dooley, a Jupiter Island agent and newly installed president of the Orlando-based Florida Association of Realtors. Despite the slowing trend, Dooley expects the market to remain solid in 2006.

"To go from a red-hot market to a hot market is not a negative comment," he said. "Thirty to 40 percent price appreciations? That's not a healthy market.

"I think this is a period where we're going to have a balancing, if you will. And that's good."

to roarks credit... i see no bubble bursting, just a slow cool

What goes up, must come down. Anyone who thought the boom would never end is living in la la land with micheal jackson and bobo the monkey. If everything that has been approved goes to groundbreaking I think we can consider this one hell of a run, and a fantastic boost to the skyline. Look at the biscayne wall, look at Met3 when its done and the new tallest. The last few years and this one have been great. Now fill the condos and get the office buildings going again. As booms go, this has been a good one. No complaints

Not much of a rant, and it shouldn't be much of a surprise.
One day, the cycle will turn down. Despite over 28 months of "bubble talk" from the Herald and the Sun Sentinel, there is ONE month where the median price has come down.
ONE in a row.
Do you think that means that the market is finally buying their "bubble talk"?? I hope none of the advertisers in their newspapers have to wait 28 months before the newspaper readers finally buy what they are trying so hard to sell!!
Odds are any guy with a finance degree and more than 5 real estate text books on his shelf knows more about real estate than any "journalist" from the Sun Sentinel or the Miami Herald does about real estate.
Again (and this is getting tiring), real estate moves in cycles. There has never been the mention of the phrase "real estate bubble" before the most recent stock market bubble.
For anyone that wants to understand real estate but would like to bypass the BSBA in International Finance and bypass the Real Estate Development textbooks or bypass over a decade of experience in Miami Real Estate, just study and understand the following charts. Whatever you do, don't substitute the education, experience, and facts for something that you read from an entry level journalist in a newspaper.
http://www.restainer.com/skyscrapers/realestatecycles_w.jpg

http://www.restainer.com/skyscrapers/RE-cyclegraph.jpg



I do not take a single newspaper, nor read one a month, and I feel myself infinitely the happier for it. Thomas Jefferson (1743 - 1826)

What I find interesting in looking at the median stats is how far housing sales have fallen in Miami compared to more affordable markets in Florida.

For instance, look at Fort Myers.

http://media.living.net/releases/Dec05chart.htm

It has about one quarter the population of Miami-Dade, yet sold twice as many homes homes in December.

Ocala or Marion County has about 1/8 the population of Miami-Dade yet has basically the same amount of house sales.

speaking of the Herald... Where has Beth Dunlop been? The biggest boom in Miami's history and their architecture critic is mostly silent.

What I find interesting in looking at the median stats is how far housing sales have fallen in Miami compared to more affordable markets in Florida.You mean the NUMBER of sales.
It really takes some experience or expertise to make sense of these types of statistics.
As the cliche goes, there are three kinds of lies; Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.
The trained eye will observe that the statistics posted are "Existing Home" sales, and not only that, but "Realtor Sales".
Meaning, they are not counting the 400 + units at Brickell on the River. Those are developer sales (not on the MLS) and not existing. Those statistics also do not include One Miami, nor any developer unit anywhere in Miami.
I'm not 100% positive, but I'll bet Ft. Meyers hasn't had closings on any 400 foot + condo buildings in the history of Ft Meyers existence. Miami is has had 2 in the last month and several to come in the next few months.
Be careful about how you interpret statistics.

I think the biggest problem in Miami right now is the fact that lots of people who want to sell their homes now have grossly unrealistic expectations as to what they're worth. Not only are most buyers unwilling to pay that much... most banks won't finance purchases that grossly exceed what they believe to be the sane value of properties (it's been a problem with waterfront properties for years... people who really want to buy one end up having to put 30 or 40% down to cover the amount above and beyond what the bank feels is the home's legit value).

If you want a few good laughs, go check out buyowner.com and look at the insane amounts of money people who haven't spoken to realtors think they can actually get for their homes. My neighbor across the street (West Miami) has had his house up for sale now for about 9 months, and is still insane enough to think some fool is actually going to pay $460,000 for a 900sf 2/1 house with no garage on a tiny lot. He's had dozens of offers in the $360-399k range, but he's still holding out for the jackpot (and, in the opinion of everyone on the street, it's not going to happen anytime soon). Ditto for a co-worker who lives in a new neighborhood down by Krome and Eureka... someone on his street has been trying to sell (by owner) his house for $650k for the last 14 months, and still thinks he's going to get it sometime soon (new homes 3 blocks away are "only" $480-525k).

I think the biggest problem in Miami right now is the fact that lots of people who want to sell their homes now have grossly unrealistic expectations as to what they're worth.If you think that is the BIGGEST problem, you aren't getting out much !!If you want a few good laughs, go check out buyowner.com and look at the insane amounts of money people who haven't spoken to realtors think they can actually get for their homes.
NEWSFLASH!!!!
Most people that sell "By Owner" have interviewed a couple real estate professionals that say something like, "Are you out of your $&#('n mind"? in my early days of real estate a home owner would over value his home and I decline the listing. Why waste my time selling an overpriced product?
Bad Realtors will do it, and they won't make much money.
This isn't any new phenomena...ask anyone that has been in the real estate business for more than 10 years (if you can find one) or trust me. For Sale By Owner (FSBO's) always think that they will be better off without a Realtor. 85% of FSBO's end up using a professional. Some of the "success stories" are those that sell to low!

There is a chapter in Freakonomics about real estate agents. They have a tendency to sell your home for less than they can. There is little incentive to work an extra ten days that might earn you $10,000 because they will only earn like $200. They put their houses out on the market for an average of 10 days more I believe.

There is a chapter in Freakonomics about real estate agents. They have a tendency to sell your home for less than they can. There is little incentive to work an extra ten days that might earn you $10,000 because they will only earn like $200. They put their houses out on the market for an average of 10 days more I believe.Yeah...great book! :cheers: If you re-read that chapter and consider what I've discovered from my experience, that chapter isn't nearly as powerful.
Very often, not always, a Realtor knows what he is talking about. Very often, and quite likely, a home owner doesn't listen to the Realtor when they get an offer.
I brought this up at a dinner party with two friends that listed their properties with me back in the day....and they agreed, had they heeded the professional advice, they would have made more money. I said hold out, and they took the first offer. In retrospect, they both agreed. Realtors "buy and sell" 50 homes a year, individuals don't. No wonder Realtors are more poised and get better prices. It isn't nephareous as Steven Levitt suggests in the book. The more you do something, the better you tend to do it.

This is an interesting development. I wonder how the luxury home/condo market over $1 million is going to do when owners find out they won't be able to get insurance coverage for their homes....anywhere. Citizens was the insurer of last resort.

They also have issued a study to limit the coverage to $500,000, which would effect tons more people. Pretty much every single family home on Miami Beach is over $500,000 for example.

Citizens Property may stop issuing policies for homes over $1 million

By Kathy Bushouse
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Posted January 31 2006


ORLANDO -- Legislators would be asked to keep owners of coastal homes valued at more than $1 million from getting homeowner insurance coverage from Citizens Property Insurance Corp. as part of a series of recommendations being weighed by a statewide insurance task force.

The $1 million cap on insured value is one of a number of sweeping recommendations in a 28-page draft report to overhaul Florida's troubled insurance market. Other suggestions:

Give some Citizens policyholders three to five years to retrofit their homes so they can find insurance policies from private companies.

Create grants and low-interest loans that people can tap to fortify their homes to prevent hurricane damage.

Delay a state mandate to shift Citizens' wind-only coverage from Interstate 95 to a point farther east, which would move thousands of policies out of the high-risk category.

Study the impact of reducing eligibility for Citizens coverage to homes with insured value of less than $500,000.

Require a 25 percent rapid-cash buildup for the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, which is starting 2006 with a low balance, to help insurers pay claims should another hurricane hit. Insurance companies pay this initially but pass the cost onto their customers.

The state's Task Force on Long-Term Solutions to Florida's Hurricane Insurance Market convened Monday at the University of Central Florida in Orlando for two days of debate on its draft report, which should be completed next month and sent to the Legislature. The group includes state officials, insurance experts and industry representatives.

"I think the Legislature is very serious about reducing Citizens' exposure," said Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty, the task force's chairman.

Cutting the number of homes it insures for more than $1 million would help, said Susanne Murphy, Citizens' corporate counsel. The company has more than 6,000 homes insured for more than $1 million, and shifting those policies to private insurers would reduce Citizens' exposure by $900 million, Murphy said.

Ultimately, that could mean the company would be able cover its losses without assessing all of Florida's policyholders. A $516 million shortfall in Citizens' high-risk account after the 2004 hurricane season meant that all policyholders in the state paid to make up the company's losses.

That assessment was an additional $68 for every $1,000 of premium homeowners pay to insure their homes.

The task force hasn't stipulated whether condo units would also be affected by the limit.

Task force members said that people with million-dollar policies should be able to find coverage from the surplus lines market, which charges rates that are not regulated by the state. But the state should ensure there are willing takers in the surplus lines market before limiting coverage, said Steve Burgess, the state's insurance consumer advocate and a task force member.

"We have to make sure that the people in this circumstance have some access," Burgess said.

At Monday's meeting, the group also discussed the possibility of using sales tax money to help deflect possible future Citizens assessments and to help shore up the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund.

The task force is expected to discuss building codes at today's meeting, and could also vote to finalize their recommendations to the Legislature.

While making changes to state-backed Citizens is a large part of the group's charge, the group's ultimate goal is to get more insurers to issue policies for Florida's homes, making it easier and perhaps even cheaper for people to get insurance coverage.

Kathy Bushouse can be reached at kbushouse@sun-sentinel.com or 954-356-4667.

I thought this article summed up quite nicely what is happening in the S. Florida real estate market. Read the 5 key points it mentioned. Sales are down, Inventories are up, Prices are flattening, incentives are needed to sell, and interest rates are rising.

Experts say South Florida housing market cooling off

Surging price increases unsustainable, experts say

By Paul Owers
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Posted February 11 2006

Even the rosiest real estate analysts concede that South Florida's housing frenzy is fading after five years. The culprit?

"Its own success," said Lewis Goodkin, an industry consultant in Miami.

Goodkin and other experts say the market was destined to soften because price appreciations of 25 percent or more aren't sustainable. Prices will increase in 2006, but not at the double-digit rate of the past few years, they say.

Goodkin estimates South Florida's home sales pace will fall by 20 percent, compared to recent years, while the overbuilt condominium markets in West Palm Beach and Miami will face "dramatic" slowdowns by the summer.

He said the housing forecast for South Florida is typical of what's happening in many growing cities, such as Las Vegas and San Diego.

"We're really coming back to a more normal market," Goodkin said.

Here are five key indicators:

1. Sales are down. Whether you're comparing December to the same period in 2004 or looking at the past six months of 2005, the number of home sales across South Florida has dropped by roughly 40 percent, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.

The Orlando-based trade group tracks single-family home sales but not condominiums, townhouses or co-ops.

Certainly, Hurricane Wilma had something to do with the decline in the latter part of 2005, but agents and industry experts say the storm isn't the only reason for the slowdown. Insurance and property-tax increases are driving up monthly mortgage payments, making many people reluctant to buy.

"Prices just got to be too high," said Marilynn Obrig, a broker-associate with Intercoastal Realty Inc. in Fort Lauderdale. "There comes a point where buyers say, `I can't do it. I have to sit back and think about it.' "

2. Listings are up. It's not just your imagination: You are seeing more for-sale signs in front yards. The number of homes and condos on the market more than doubled in Broward County from July through December, according to The Keyes Co. and multiple listing services. Listings rose more than 81 percent in Palm Beach County and more than 64 percent in Miami-Dade.

Speculators helped fuel the housing boom, which drove up prices to record levels, but that's changing as many speculators are leaving real estate. With fewer buyers, houses don't sell as quickly and inventory builds up.

There's virtually no sense of urgency, and buyers can take their time considering multiple properties, said Richard Barkett, chief executive of the Realtor Association of Greater Fort Lauderdale.

"Most Realtors want to be listing agents, but you have to be out looking for buyers now," said Boynton Beach agent Bob Melzer. "With 20 homes for sale in the same community, [buyers] say, `What's my rush?' "

3. Prices have flattened. As demand wanes, sellers are losing leverage, and some are cutting their asking prices.

Median prices across South Florida rose by more than 20 percent in December compared to the same period a year ago, according to the Florida Realtors group. But from July through December, the median increased less than 5 percent to $408,200 in Palm Beach and to $377,700 in Miami-Dade while decreasing 4.3 percent to $369,000 in Broward.

"A stabilization in prices has occurred," said David Dabby, a Coral Gables real estate analyst. "That doesn't mean that appreciation has stopped in all areas. It hasn't. You're just going to see more modest increases, at best."

4. Incentives for buyers and real estate agents are increasing. Some builders are offering free upgrades on appliances, countertops and cabinets, as well as offering to pay points and closing costs worth thousands of dollars that the new-home buyer normally would pay.

Developers also are trying to lure real estate agents. At the Legacy Place condominiums in Palm Beach Gardens, for instance, agents who referred buyers received 4 percent commissions rather than the standard 2 or 3 percent.

"There hasn't been the necessity to do that before," said Jack McCabe, a Deerfield Beach analyst who is betting on a market slowdown and organizing investors to buy properties at reduced rates. "The environment is going to get highly competitive this year."

5. Interest rates are rising and credit requirements tightening. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates are near 6 percent, and analysts predict they could inch closer to 7 percent in 2006. While still reasonable, that's enough to keep some people from qualifying for mortgages.

And as interest rates increase, homeowners with adjustable-rate notes will see their monthly payments rise. That'll mean more foreclosures and distressed sales, experts say.

In addition, federal regulators are forcing lenders to become more selective this year. Mortgage applicants will need higher credit scores and more proof of income, while banks are expected to scale back on risky interest-only loans.

"The direction of the market is clear," said Manuel Iraola, chief executive of Homekeys, a Miami-based online real estate service. "What's open for debate is the magnitude of the adjustment the market will go through."

Paul Owers can be reached at powers@sun-sentinel.com or 561-243-6529.

Miami Herald posted a map of South Florida with the median home and condo prices. There's actually lots of affordable housing in Miami. Although, whether you or I would want to live in those light blue areas is up for debate.

http://www.miami.com/multimedia/miami/business/archive/housing//map/map1large.gif

That map suprises me Logy. I see parts of Sunny Isles and the eastern parts of North Miami and North Miami Beach as being rather cheap. I guess I thought those were nicer areas..they used to be.

That map makes Kendall look like the ghetto-est (sp?) street south of MIA (I happen to know that the houses in my part of Kendall are selling for more than twice than what the map says.)

Also, the map doesn't include the density of properties sold in each area. While many people pay over $400,000 for a small condo in Miami Beach others are living in McMansions in Western Broward for the same price. So the map doesn't necessarily indicate which neighborhoods are most costly.

That is probably the most incorrect map of pricing I have seen.

As someone who makes such maps for a living (not just for real estate but for everything else too) that is a pretty weak effort. No breaking down of condos vs homes, geographic subdivisions that are way too large. Take for example the cutler ridge area, they used what looks like one big square for the area and took the average but in reality that square holds two neighborhoods, one with an average of 300 to 400k and the other with an average of 100 to 200k, hence they came up with calling all of it 200 to 300k. And with Kendall a home will cost you 500k+ but condos generally run 150 - 250k, one would think a distinction would be made on the map.

The map is almost a better indicator of which neighborhoods are most dense (excluding coral gables and a couple other neighborhoods), rather than which are most expensive.

The map is almost a better indicator of which neighborhoods are most dense (excluding coral gables and a couple other neighborhoods), rather than which are most expensive.The map is what it is. It charts the median prices of homes and condos (half more expensive and half less expensive. Many people have preconceived notions of what neighborhoods are better, or nicer. But the fact is, this map charts median prices.
It looks about right to me.
Interestingly, in a few weeks about 250 waterfront apartments will hit the market under $350k in South Beach 33139. That is enough to skew these numbers if recalculated in a few months.

You're right. I was a little disgruntled when I first saw this map cuz' my neighborhood got a bad wrap.

However, no statistician would argue that housing prices have increased using the median price instead of the mean. Perhaps, the distribution of house and condo prices has just been skewed toward the high end while the mean remained the same.

However, no statistician would argue that housing prices have increased using the median price instead of the mean. Perhaps, the distribution of house and condo prices has just been skewed toward the high end while the mean remained the same.You're right on Paul.

As it turns out, there has been a major influx of "luxury" condos being built. Although the mean has likely increased a lot as well, I think the median is growing out of whack in South Beach and the CBD. You don't have to have lived in Miami for to long to notice this. I've been here for 13 years in South Beach. The majority of condos were under $100k. When I arrived, there was no Portofino tower, no Icon, no Murano, Murano Grande, Setai, etc. etc. Of course the median was low. These are all definitely pricey places relative to others (except for those people from NYC, LA, Chicago, Philly, San Fran, London, Paris, Hong Kong, Munich, etc.).

Now, guess what...the parking lots on Biscayne are now going to be 50 story luxury buildings. The median is going to be skewed even more. Is that bad? No, not unless you are a big fan of surface parking lot preservation.
Should we cry that housing got less affordable because we have just added an extraordinary amount of luxury and super luxury apartments? No.
7 buildings, or about 2,000 apartments are more pricey than many can afford, but if they weren't there, there would be surface parking lots.
Unless you hate rich people, there is really no cause for alarm. Let them buy stuff here. Especially condos that they won't live in! Please, please, please let them buy million dollar condos and let them be "empty". That's 2% times a million, or $20,000 dollars in property taxes that this community can use for some great new toys! Parks, new fire trucks, all sorts of great things!
We shouldn't cry about median prices rising unless we are renters, motivated by politics, or being manipulated by politicians. Then you should cry for not chosing to be on the right bandwagon.

Which is not to say that existing properties have not shot up as well. I looked at these two buildings because they are older established buildings with a whole bunch of units which should take away an extreme sale here or there.

Here are the mean sale amounts:

The Grand (1717 N Bayshore Dr, i.e. Doubletree):
2003: $292,041 *(one giant penthouse sale was removed as no comprable existed in the other years)
2004: $309,634
2005: $416,406
2006 (Jan.): $434,857

Brickell Place (1865 -1925 Brickell Ave)
2003: $273,281
2004: $303,246
2005: $388,782


Median Sale
Grand
2003: $282,300
2004: $305,000
2005: $400,000

Brickell Place
2003: $264,000
2004: $280,000
2005: $399,000

A pretty big jump during 2005 by any measure.

How about the hike that the Palace (1541 Brickell) took in 2005:

Mean
2003: $369,145
2004: $395,322
2005: $550,000

Median Sale:
2002: $340,000
2003: $383,000
2004: $418,000
2005: $542,000

Priced out of 'the American Dream'

Posted on Sun, Feb. 26, 2006
The boom is a bust for many in South Florida whose vision of homeownership is blurred by the soaring cost of housing

BY LISA ARTHUR AND MATTHEW

HAGGMANlarthur@MiamiHerald.comI

It all started one day late last year, when Quintin Taylor sat at his dining room table and did the math on how much his apartment had cost him over three years.

Answer: close to $60,000. Sucked straight out of his pocket.
That's when the 30-year-old sports marketer began his quest to move out of his Pembroke Pines apartment into a house. His budget: $200,000 to $220,000.

Not an unreasonable target before the housing boom sent the midpoint price for a single-family home in South Florida to $340,000 in 2005 from $150,000 in 2000, according to a Miami Herald analysis of home sales. In 2006, even with a cooling real estate market, Taylor's odds are long.

In the past five years, the housing crunch in South Florida has moved up the economic ladder from the low-income to the middle-class, pricing a whole new layer of workers -- thousands of Quintin Taylors -- out of the market.
To live in a mid-priced house, a family in the Miami area earning the midpoint income must now spend 44 percent of its dollars on mortgage payments. That's double what it cost as recently as 1998 -- and close to Los Angeles at 46 percent and New York City at 49 percent.

Even with the market slowing, South Florida still won't return to the affordable days of the late 1990s, economists say. Incomes are limited by a service and tourism economy that doesn't create enough high-paying jobs. Yet housing prices remain high because of money flowing in from foreign and investment buyers.

That adds up to an affordability crunch through 2015, Moody's Economy.com forecasts. But change has come so fast that attitudes have yet to adjust. And so the quest for a home is turning into a hard lesson in compromise.
''For people who can't afford to buy, rental properties might be the answer,'' says Celia Chen, director of housing economy for Economy.com. ``There's probably going to be a glut of condos to rent soon. A lot of what's been built has been bought by investors who are going to have to rent them out.''

AN EARLIER ERA
RECALLING A HOUSE
`FILLED WITH LOVE'

Taylor remembers the way it once was in South Florida, and not so long ago, when a house was a cherished home rather than an impossible dream. He grew up in a house in Liberty City.
''It wasn't the best house, but it was filled with love and it had a backyard,'' he says.

During his teenage years, the family moved to unincorporated Miami-Dade County, near Hialeah. This time the yard had mango, grapefruit and avocado trees, and he picked fruit for breakfast.

''If I have kids someday, I want them to have the yard,'' he says. ``I want the yard for myself. . . . It's corny, but it's the American dream, and I don't want to settle for anything less.''

The reality, though, is that Taylor might be priced out of the dream.
He earned $75,000 last year. In December, he was preapproved for a $185,000 loan. With 10 percent down, he figures that monthly mortgage payments would be close to his $1,650 monthly rent.

But finding a single-family home to fit that budget won't be easy. A Florida International University study for release Wednesday found that Broward County buyers need household income of $100,000 to afford a mid-priced home. It's no better in Miami-Dade, where a Beacon Council study found that a household needs $117,204 to afford the average used single-family home.
Danny Elfenbein, 25, and his fiancée, Marty Fulgueira, 24, closed on a town house near The Falls shopping mall two weeks ago. It wasn't how they wanted to start their new life.

''We want a house, but we want to keep living here, where both our families are. So, for now, we can't have a house,'' says Elfenbein, who works for the ING Miami Marathon.

The couple bought their 1,550-square-foot town house for $260,000, after negotiating the seller down from $280,000. Before they move in, they'll spend about $10,000 -- on new flooring and counters in the kitchen and bathrooms, toilets, roof shingles, electrical wiring.

Still, Elfenbein feels somewhat lucky. He now lives with his parents to save money. And he had worried that he and his wife would have to stay with his parents after their wedding next month.
His parents live in Kendale Lakes in the house where he grew up, with a front yard and a deck. But he accepts the reality that condos or town homes are the new starter houses for his generation.
Condos made up 81 percent of sales under $200,000 in South Florida last year, up from 52 percent in 2000.

Even with condos in the mix, it's just harder to find a starter home. Housing sales under $200,000 in South Florida shrank 60 percent over the past five years.

Elfenbein and Fulgueira, who just took the bar exam, plan to stay in their town house for two to four years, build up equity, then sell and buy a house. But they know there are no guarantees.

''What happens if the condo and town-house market crashes?'' Elfenbein wonders aloud. ``It's nerve-racking. . . . My generation is the first in Miami that is being forced to settle for a way of living they didn't expect. And many of us have had to move back home to save money before we can find even a condo in our price range.''

HUNTING FOR A HOME
LOOKING AT MANY,
CONSIDERING A FEW

On a Friday in late January, Taylor meets with his real estate agents, Scott Lewis and Rosie Hernandez of Gold Rose Realty.
Taylor won't even consider a condo, but he's flexible about location.
''I can blend in anywhere,'' he says. ``I am fine with buying a house in Liberty City. I'm comfortable in Pembroke Pines, too. If it's an urban neighborhood, that's cool. If it's a suburban neighborhood, that's cool.''
After weeks of driving around and phoning Lewis about properties that catch his eye, Taylor has narrowed his list to a few.

There's the pink house on Northwest 86th Street in Arcola Lakes. Asking price: $175,000.
They walk around outside. Shingles are missing from the roof. Windows will have to be replaced. There's a gaping hole in the wall between the bathroom and living room, and another between a storage room and the kitchen.
''It would take like $50,000 before I could even move in,'' Taylor says. ``I can't believe someone would charge almost $200,000 for this.''
A house on Northwest 14th Court in Liberty City that Taylor first saw a few days ago is more promising. There's new tile on the floors. The master bedroom is big and has its own bathroom. The list price is $150,000. But there's a ''contract pending'' sign hooked on to the bottom of the for-sale sign.

Lewis calls the real estate agent to ask if he can bid in case the first deal falls through. No luck.
''They didn't want to even take an offer from us,'' he tells Taylor after hanging up. ``Deal must look solid.''
Taylor shrugs. ``It's just another lesson that I have to act quick, like as soon as I see something. Or it's gone.''

If Taylor had his way, he'd live in Miami's Design District, or the Upper Eastside, or Miami Beach. But he knows that those places are out of reach if he wants a house. So he sets his sights on Central Miami-Dade and Broward.
Some of South Florida's most affordable homes are in that middle corridor, in Opa-locka, North Miami, Lauderdale Lakes and Lauderhill, the Herald analysis showed. Many lower-priced new homes will also be found in deep South Miami-Dade, where construction is booming. But Taylor decides that South Dade is too far, since he runs his company from an office on Biscayne Boulevard in North Miami.

IN LOVE WITH A HOUSE
NOW THE DECISION
COMES DOWN TO PRICE

Eight houses into his search, Taylor is in love.
''I picture myself living at 520 NW 137th St.,'' Taylor says.
He wanders around the backyard. It needs cosmetic work, but there's a built-in pool and a concrete patio. Taylor, who loves to entertain, closes his eyes for a moment. He can hear the music and smell the burgers and hot dogs grilling up.
''I want this house,'' he says.

The renovated house, just east of Interstate 95 in Nichols Heights, is listed for $265,000, way out of Taylor's price range. But Taylor thinks he could negotiate.
In 2002, the house sold for $91,500. Seven months later, it sold for $134,000. Current owner Domenick Vitale paid $160,000 for it last September.
Two months later, in November, he listed it for $299,000. In December, the price dropped to $282,900. In late January, it was $265,000.
Still too high, say Lewis and Hernandez. For one thing, the house is listed as a four-bedroom, but two have no closets.

''This is really a two-bedroom with a den and a family room,'' Hernandez says. She says comparable recent sales in the neighborhood are in the $220,000 to $240,000 range.
One estimate by an appraiser placed the value of the house closer to $220,000.
The agents leave messages for Vitale for several days. No response. Then Hernandez leaves an urgent message that she has a buyer ready to make an offer.

Several days later, Vitale finally calls. But he's not ready to negotiate.
Taylor isn't deterred. A second estimate comes in at $240,000. Taylor gets preapproval for a new mortgage with only 5 percent down and decides to make a verbal offer of $240,000.
His monthly payments, with taxes and insurance included, would be $2,300 -- $650 more than he wanted to spend. ''I'll just have to cut back on things like shopping, eating out and going out to clubs every night,'' he says. ``The house is the goal.''
But there's still Vitale.

The perceptions of sellers may not have caught up with the cooling market -- another factor that might keep the region unaffordable. As things slow down, sellers -- and builders -- will have to adjust, says Ned Murray, the FIU professor who directed the Broward affordability study.
''We have a development community that is used to very high return on investment, around 22 percent,'' Murray says. ``I think 15 to 18 percent is more realistic.''

OWNER STANDS FIRM
HE'S WARY OF TALKERS,
LOOKERS AND DREAMERS

Several phone conversations later with Lewis, Vitale isn't budging.
''What's going through my head is what might be going through the head of anyone involved in a deal,'' Vitale tells The Miami Herald. ``Everyone's trying to make the most money they can make off an investment.''
Besides, he says, he hasn't seen an offer in writing from any Quintin Taylor.
''We talked maybe three times,'' Vitale says. ``There's a lot of talkers, a lot of lookers and a lot of dreamers out there. I'm not negotiating a verbal offer.''
Lewis says Vitale is doing what he has to do. It's a cat-and-mouse game. He tells Taylor it's time to decide: Either put the $240,000 offer in writing or move on and look at other properties.

''I still think $240,000 is too high,'' Lewis says. ``Quintin's got tunnel vision. I just think he sees himself in that backyard, with that pool.''
But then Taylor hears from a neighbor that not many people have stopped by to see the house. He decides to pass on making a written offer after all and look at other houses.
He'll still keep an eye on Vitale's house, which he thinks may eventually come down in price. But he doesn't want to pay more than it's worth.
He's disappointed, but he's not going to give up on the dream of mowing his own lawn in his own backyard.

''After three months of looking, I'm discouraged,'' he says.
``A lot of the other houses I've looked at need a whole lot of money in renovations before I can spend even one night in them. . . . But maybe we'll find another gem out there.''

Condo association fees just went up (or they will once the rate hike hits the association):

Glad I don't live in Monroe...
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/14451819.htm

Citizens releases details on condo association rate hike
Herald Staff Report
Citizens board agreed Thursday to go ahead with a rate increase on windstorm insurance for condominium and homeowners associations and apartment buildings and released what the rate hikes would be by region.

The state-run insurer of last resort covers 36,554 condo associations statewide, with more than half of that exposure -- 20,749 policies -- in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe. These policies generally cover the building structures.

This rate hike covers its high-risk windstorm policies -- about 12,000 in South Florida. This is the first rate increase for this group of policies since Citizens was created, said Justin Glover, Citizens spokesman.

Although this rate request is pending, it is expected to be approved.

Depending upon where the property is located and its age and condition, the rate hikes in South Florida will range from:

• Miami-Dade: 30 percent to 48 percent

• Broward: 51 percent to 83 percent

• Palm Beach: 71 percent to 87 percent

• Monroe: 158 percent to 206 percent

Citizens must increase its condo association rates now because the Australian company QBE Insurance Group has just begun raising its rates by an average of 38 percent statewide -- and mostly likely higher in South Florida -- and state law requires Citizens to charge the highest rates. This measure is designed to encourage consumers and businesses to shop around for a private insurer rather than turn to Citizens, although in reality private windstorm insurance is nearly impossible to find in coastal sections on South Florida.

Priced out of 'the American Dream'All depends on your perspective as usual...
As I sat in a Workforce Housing committee meeting, the talk was all about being priced out of the "American Dream". I asked, "the mix of workforce homeowners -v- renters"? The guru of a Broward housing group answered me by saying that it's about 70% -v- 30%.
Sooooooo.....that means that if house values have gone up 200% in the last 5 years (or whatever the number is), 70% of the workforce has been living the American Dream, and living quite large. Rather than try to tinker with the free-market forces that dictate prices and values, why not educate that 30% about the benefits of homeownership?

I don't think that 30% needs much education on the benefits of homeownership. It's more like the cost of housing has increased by 300% in the last 6 years while their salaries have remained stagnant. That's the main problem, especially for the younger kids just getting out of college with tens of thousands of dollars in debt.

And families can't always settle and live in a small condo.

It may just be that for these people, the only hope to ever own a home is to leave South Florida and move to cheaper locations where they could afford a house and the lifestyle they wanted. That's what I'd do, if i were in their situation, at least.

I don't think that 30% needs much education on the benefits of homeownership. It's more like the cost of housing has increased by 300% in the last 6 years while their salaries have remained stagnant.I firmly believe it. The people that study this stuff told me in a Workforce Housing session, that the percentage of owners/renters hasn't changed in decades. You have mentioned two things above....what you might be saying is that we have a stagnant salary problem.
That's the main problem, especially for the younger kids just getting out of college with tens of thousands of dollars in debt.I'm was one of those kids with $30k + student loan debt. Didn't buy in my twenties. So what? It wasn't a housing afforability issue. I wasn't educated enough to realize that plasma TV's, European Vacations, schweet mountain bikes, and toys should wait unitl after a downpayment for a home[quote]It may just be that for these people, the only hope to ever own a home is to leave South Florida and move to cheaper locations where they could afford a house and the lifestyle they wanted.
[quote]....hmmm....the lifestyle that they wanted. Or, they could do what my 22 yr old bartender friend did; buy a one bedroom condo that wasn't nearly as big as he wanted, didn't have the amenities that he wanted, and not in the exact location that he wanted. Rather than pay $12,000 per year in rent, he paid a mortgage in a place that didn't suit his "lifestyle". As the property values increased, so did his equity. He sold it 2 years later and moved up, and he's done this a couple of times in the last decade. Thank God a mentor educated him on what happens when you rent -v- buy.[

Logy, you've missed my point entirely. The point is that 30% of the people in the workforce don't own homes now, and didn't own homes when they were 300% percent cheaper. The workers that WERE educated enough to buy homes 300% ago are have a lot of equity, and kudos to them. If you are mentoring anyone, please don't tell them that, "your only hope" is to move away to a place where property is cheaper. There really are other ways.

By the way, I saw my friend the other day....this kid left home when he was about 16, no college, maybe no HS degree (not sure) he's still bartending in the same place as he was in 1995 and he owns 5 apartments on South Beach.
He's not whining about housing affordability.

I'd love it if they required personal finance classes in high school to graduate. The kids aren't getting any of that education from home. Most of the time the kids learn their reckless spending ways straight from their parents.

My biggest pet peeve has always been people's fascination with new cars. Why anyone would buy something that depreciates the second you drive it off the lot is beyond me. I've always bought used cars and paid cash for them. You don't have to settle for an old junker. You can find incredible value in cars only a few years old.

Where to live is an individual decision. What's important to one person is not very important to another. If I was looking strictly from a financial perspective, I've had chances in my career to make significantly more money. I would have had to move to NY to do it and I hate cold weather and oppressive taxation and the "NY lifestyle" where 60 hours is considered a "light" work week so that was out of the question for me. It was my personal choice. I accepted less money so I would have more free time to enjoy my Florida winters outside without freezing.

I would argue if someone is hyper-focused on the "American Dream" of a single family home with a backyard, they would get much better value for their money in Central Florida, where housing costs are about 60% of what they are in South Florida and salaries for jobs are only maybe 5-10% lower than South Florida.

Unlike Central Florida where huge tracts of land are undeveloped, there's no more substantial land to build single-family homes in South Florida, so they will become more and more expensive. The starter housing in South Florida is condo and townhouses. People have got to accept that. If they can't, at least to start and then build from that like your friend did, I think they would be better off leaving. It would certainly be preferable to doing nothing and continuing to whine and complain. You don't build equity by whining and complaining.

personal finance classes in high schools is a great idea and would help in solving some of the financial problems of america's 20-somethings...

I've wanted to post here for so long so I finally decided to register.

Miami and the friendly people impressed me on my few weeks long visit I decided to make it a goal for me so some day, very soon I'm able to move down there and live the life I've been looking for very very long time.

There's just no city like that, one of a kind.

do you buy used cars from a dealer or individuals

I'd love it if they required personal finance classes in high school to graduate. The kids aren't getting any of that education from home. Most of the time the kids learn their reckless spending ways straight from their parents. You are absolutely correct! And the "Richest Man in Babylon" should be required reading!! The price on Amazon for the paperback is $2.58 used and the value is over a million dollars throughout a lifetime. Click here (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0451205367/002-5457609-8069669?v=glance&n=283155) (and no, I don't make a commission on the 2 bucks!!!)

do you buy used cars from a dealer or individuals

Canine :) Yeah,,,

Bout 30 Man !!!, lol. :cheers:

I've bought used cars from dealers and individuals. What you really need to do is find a mechanic who you TRUST that can really look over the car and give you an honest opinion about whether you are buying crap or not.

Also, you have to really make sure no shady things were done. Like the car is stolen, has been flooded like during katrina, or maybe simply the odometer has been rolled back. A lot of it is pretty much common sense. But you can get burned if you aren't careful. Caveat Emptor.

Look at the blue book values and always question why a car is selling so cheap. A lot of times individuals who are selling a car are in "distress" and the car is just perfectly fine. But the more you know about the seller, the better negotiating position you can have.

Best deal I ever had was a practically new car (2 years old with like 12,000 miles on it) sold by a mother whose son had just committed suicide. She had bought the car for him and she just wanted to get rid of it ASAP. Sold it to me for practically half of what it was worth. She didn't care. Looking at it in her driveway was just too painful for her. It's possible he killed himself in the car. I didn't ask, nor cared. All I was concerned about was if the thing ran properly.

Also, I once bought a car from a lady going through a nasty divorce and got a great deal. She was mad at her husband and wanted to sell the car he had bought her to piss him off, lol.

friend of mine bought a jeep for a reasonable price and has since put about three times that amount of money into the car... we all told him to go get it checked out before he bought it, but he insisted "the girls straight, don't worry about it"... serves him right

i on the other hand bought a 94 mazda protege for under a grand from a family friend with only 30,000 miles on it and have since put another 10k on it... runs like a dream...

used cars can work out great, or they can fuck you over... you gotta b careful

Insurance bill was passed by FL legislature yesterday. Better get ready to pay up. Main points are all citizens policies east of I-95 in south florida will increase 103% over the next 3 years. $1 million homes are out of the pool in 2008 AND businesses and it appears ALL non-homestead property is out of the pool in 2007. They will have to look for coverage in the unregulated surplus lines market and will only be able to go back to Citizen's if they can't get coverage anywhere, at significantly higher rates.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/politics/content/state/epaper/2006/05/06/0506xgrinsurance.html

The final bill includes:

• A $715 million paydown of Citizens' $1.7 billion deficit. That leaves homeowners with a 2.5 percent assessment this year. The rest of the deficit would be paid over 10 years.

• A requirement that Citizens' deficits be paid in three stages. Seasonal residents and businesses are charged 10 percent and then all Citizens' customers are charged 10 percent. If more money is needed, all homeowners will be assessed.

• Rate hikes in Citizens' high-risk pool over the next three years, which would be a 103 percent hike above current rates.

• All other Citizens' customers would see a 19 percent hike above current rates in 2007.

• Requirements that all homes worth $1 million or more be kicked out of Citizens in 2008 and businesses and seasonal residents are kicked out in 2007. They can only return if rejected by one admitted insurer and three surplus lines insurers.

The bill also allows insurers to raise rates in a given territory by 10 percent without regulator approval where regulators determine competition exists and makes it easier for insurers to charge higher rates for million-dollar homes.

And it gives $250 million to mitigation programs and $250 million for a loan program for private insurance companies.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-zinsurenew06may06,0,5844661.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

Homes with an insured value of more than $1 million in Citizens' high-risk area, generally east of Interstate 95 in South Florida, would not be eligible for an insurance policy after July 1, 2008. Homeowners who can't find another policy would be eligible to get a Citizens policy, but would have to pay higher rates and would first have to be turned down by four companies.

Second and vacation homes also would not be eligible for Citizens policies after March 1, 2007, unless policyholders provide sworn affidavits that they can't find insurance policies elsewhere.

Just so I understand this...low insurance was a part of paradise for working people, and now rates are doubling, and Florida is Paradise is lost for working people.
Man, as I sit here working on a Sunday (or looking like I'm working as I post to the ssc!) it looks like paradise out my window on the Biscayne Bay. There are people out my window at the swimming pool from NY, NJ, Rio, Buenos Aires, Paris, London, etc. that still know that if the cost of living includes another $10k a year for windstorm insurance, it still beats shoveling snow, racial tension, government corruption, banking scandals that wipe out your net worth, and extreme poverty.

For every person person that moves away from S Florida east of I-95, there are another 3 to take their place.

And Miami doesn't have racial tension, government corruption or extreme poverty? ha ha. Thanks for the laugh. That was the funniest thing I've heard all day.

We also have had banking scandals here in the past.....and even snow! It snowed in 1977 but I don't think there was enough to shovel. ;)

What the rising cost of insurance will do is continue to put pressure on the housing market for new buyers and investors who have failed to maintain proper liquidity. In and of itself it's not a dealbreaker for most, but add it to rising property taxes, rising maintenance, and rising interest rates, and pretty soon we're talking about real money here.

And Miami doesn't have racial tension, government corruption or extreme poverty? ha ha. Thanks for the laugh. That was the funniest thing I've heard all day.
You probably mean brown vs black as racial tensions or caucansians vs everyone else? To me it seemed very minimal. Ofcourse those jerks in the suburbs always bitch about everything but why care? Let them live the suburban fantasy life.


We also have had banking scandals here in the past.....and even snow! It snowed in 1977 but I don't think there was enough to shovel.
I know nothing about the banking scandals but I belive that's very common in the States, actually anything that has something to do with huge amounts of dead presidents.

The temperature literally never goes below 65f. Your tan stays strong all year long. Meanwhile some idiots who choose to live up north suffer from extreme coldness and darkness, with the results of depression and unsociality. That's something I value and easily choose over guaranteed weathly.

The more skyscrapers you have, the more financial issues you're about to face. That's a sad, unavoidable fact.

I personally belive some of you have gotten too used to all this.
Everybody should atleast be thankful everyday for having the opportunity to live in such a place with such a huge amount of possibilities, some may only dream of something like that and would do about anything to get the life you have.
Moderation people! :)

You probably mean brown vs black as racial tensions or caucansians vs everyone else? To me it seemed very minimal. Ofcourse those jerks in the suburbs always bitch about everything but why care? Let them live the suburban fantasy life.


I know nothing about the banking scandals but I belive that's very common in the States, actually anything that has something to do with huge amounts of dead presidents.

The temperature literally never goes below 65f. Your tan stays strong all year long. Meanwhile some idiots who choose to live up north suffer from extreme coldness and darkness, with the results of depression and unsociality. That's something I value and easily choose over guaranteed weathly.

The more skyscrapers you have, the more financial issues you're about to face. That's a sad, unavoidable fact.

I personally belive some of you have gotten too used to all this.
Everybody should atleast be thankful everyday for having the opportunity to live in such a place with such a huge amount of possibilities, some may only dream of something like that and would do about anything to get the life you have.
Moderation people! :)

<-- Idiot :) I choose to live up north where the four seasons is more than just a tall building, its an adventure. I wouldnt give up my seasons for a bland one season climate, and it does get below 65 in Miami (how long have you lived there?). Logy I remember the snow in 77 as that was the last year I lived in Miami as a kid (moved back and left again in 86 as an adult) and no there wasnt any shoveling.
We who live up here accept the weather and all that comes with it. As for socialization I have never lived anywhere, including Miami where there is more of that. The cold does keep us inside more than people in Miami are (they stay inside when its 50 down there), but it doesnt stop us from being social. I have closer friends here than I ever did in Miami, weather be damned. We flock together to the lakes in summer and its a real social event for us...I love the lake in summer (I went to the beach twice in a year last time I lived there and it wasnt nearly as fun as I have here).
Miami is a pretty place with a nice warm climate, but I lived there and know what its like. Logy is right, you dont have race riots in where there is no racial tension and its not a suburb vs city thing and not just whites vs blacks. As I recall the blacks were not too fond of the hispanics when I was there. People get along much better up here in the frozen north, and I like that. Just another quality of life thing I dont take for granted about where I live.

PS. I see you mention "here in the states" do you mind telling us where you are from?

And Miami doesn't have racial tension, government corruption or extreme poverty? It snowed in 1977 but I don't think there was enough to shovel. ;) ha ha. Thanks for the laugh. That was the funniest thing I've heard all day.Glad to get a smile out of you for once! A little laughter ought to make a you a bit more happy and a little less pessimistic!!
As you re-read my post, you will notice that I was specifically mentioning the people that HAVE recently purchased real estate east of I-95. They live right here. I mentioned snow for my NJ, NY friends it snowed there in 1977 and it WAS enough to shovel (great research there Logy...wow...). Paris was mentioned because of the rash of synagouge bombings (you don't have to go back to 1977 for this, check your current events). Rio has extreme poverty, it was very apparent on my last trip there (if you think that the United States has that kind of poverty, you are extremely mistaken).
We also have had banking scandals here in the past.....Sure, if you are writing of the Nationwide S&L crises of the 1980's...but the buyers that I'm addressing from Buenos Aires saw a full 75% of their net worth plumment and banking deposits dissappear in a matter of days (again, fairly current events).
What the rising cost of insurance will do is continue to put pressure on the housing market for new buyers and investors who have failed to maintain proper liquidity. In and of itself it's not a dealbreaker for most, but add it to rising property taxes, rising maintenance, and rising interest rates, and pretty soon we're talking about real money here.Well, keep predicting this paradise lost bit....I'm telliing you from daily personal experiences, that people are still moving from other places to live east of I-95, and to them and to me, this is paradise!!!

Roark, here's more info on that strange day in 1977. It even snowed in Miami Beach!

http://www.islandnet.com/%7Esee/weather/almanac/arc2002/alm02jan.htm

Roark, here's more info on that strange day in 1977. It even snowed in Miami Beach!

http://www.islandnet.com/%7Esee/weather/almanac/arc2002/alm02jan.htm

Like I said guys, I remember this. I moved away in August of that year. Chuck Im sure recalls this too. It was a big event, snow in Miami. What a deal :)