Hello everyone, I am new to this forum and I find it so interesting. I am a Singaporean living in HK and my husband and I bought One Amber (17th flr, 1701sq ft at S$765 psf) and Urbana(33rd Flr, 1313 sq ft at S$1356 psf). We were just wondering when is the best time to sell these properties as we think the property bubble in S'pore might burst soon and we don't want to be caught. Would like to hear the views from the experts in this forum.

hi exoticgal,

welcome to the forum.

Not yet.Everybody is just starting to blow it.Big fishes are doing it.2009 is not here yet.How can MIW risk it.So many high lvl projects coming on.Not yet.

Thanx for your advice....Ok...will wait out...maybe we will rent out our Urbana first. Anyone out there knows if Keppeland is relaunching Urbana again?

Thanx for your advice....Ok...will wait out...maybe we will rent out our Urbana first. Anyone out there knows if Keppeland is relaunching Urbana again?

The Saturday issues of The Straits Times in the last few weeks carried Keppelland's advertisements to sell Urbana.

Do u happen to know how much they are selling for psf? We are in Hk, so dun get to see advert.

Exotigal,look around the properties on HK island.Properties here in SG are still cheap! SG properties price like Macau atm.1500 sg/sq ft dont get you any good property on HK island!

Anyway, do u think Urbana can go up to S$1700psf? We are hoping that One Amber can go up to S$1250psf(now that View@Meyer is selling at S$1700psf)...though we really like that place and hope to stay there one day. The one we have is best block with views of the sea and future IR.

If you study the enbloc thread in this forum,there are many rich ppl out there in 2006 after their enbloc success.They will want to park their money somewhere.So prices will still go up.You have One Amber and Urbana...drool..good properties and prime some more and at good pre 2006 prices.Sure earn man.

Anyway, do u think Urbana can go up to S$1700psf? We are hoping that One Amber can go up to S$1250psf(now that View@Meyer is selling at S$1700psf)...though we really like that place and hope to stay there one day. The one we have is best block with views of the sea and future IR.

You will make a good profit on One Amber but the Urbana prices are still hovering around the price you bought at. Very difficult to say when bubble will burst. My biggest fear is that speculation will become much more rampant (already happening) which will force the govt to intervene. As long as govt does not intervene aggressively, you should be able to wait for at least 1-2 yrs before selling out.

Here's my take on why you can't consider things a "bubble" here in SGP...

1. Singapore added 173,000 new jobs in 2006 (higher than forecast); 2007 will still see significant job growth (adding new demand to already tight rental market). I expect the February budget to be favorable to business growth, and also provide further economic support to lower classes. I expect that growth in tourism and consumper spending will more than outweigh any negative effect of GST increase.

2. There are many properties which can be acquired at today's prices that will give you a 3-5% gross yield (not even factoring in future rental increases)....Your acquisition prices for One Amber and Urbana should definitely be at the higher end of this range. In Hong Kong, ppl have long accepted yields at 2% and below in "hot" markets.....So, I see "existing" properties increasing in value to catch up to today's market 3% yields for new launches. And possibly some pressure on market yields to compress closer to the 2% level. Remember, we also expect interest rates to drop a bit in 2007 so there is no "macro" pressure on borrowers to sell...

3. There is still very strong interest for Singapore new launches in HK, Jakarta, India, Korea, etc.....people in these markets believe that prices may still have a ways to go and are simply looking for a safe market to diversify their wealth.

4. There is no doubt in my mind that upcoming launches like Marq, Orchard Turn, and CDL/Grange Road will be very well received and many of these will set new market benchmarks...This at the very least should support market prices until at least mid-year.

5. Despite claims of the "bubble-like" CBD market, there is still NO new supply that can be completed in Marina Bay / Raffles Place until earliest 2011. Therefore, only 3,000 units in the entire CBD for the next 4-5 years. As long as island-wide vacancy is in the 5-6% range for residential, the rental market will not have trouble absorbing this supply at all. My guess is the 'white site' behind One Shenton and the UIC building will sell for very high prices, further reinforcing the market belief that CBD values will hold for the medium to long term. Imagine what a high end condo near IFC would sell for in HK (which is all 99 yr leasehold anyways....)?

As long as these conditions persist, you will not see a significant drop-off in prices. Nothing in the "macro environment" is likely to happen to "force" people to consider selling, so you won't see massive fire sales...

I would start to get worried about the market and consider selling if any of the following occur:

1. Private Banking and/or regional M&A activity slows down in Asia (forcing financial services companies to re-trench highly paid expats in SGP (that can afford the current rents)

2. The stock market plunges in the next 6 months. As long as the STI remains above 3,000 there is a great deal of "new wealth" that has been created in the past few months. Some investors can take significant profits from current positions and may want to put some of that into property. This equity wealth will also increase the "consumer consumption" part of GDP, creating more jobs in retail/services. This effect should take us until the IRs open, which (together with strong overall tourism growth) will add even more long term stability to GDP and help increase Singapore's status as a "defensive investment destination" in the event of a global slowdown.

3. Increases in the price of "mass market" projects speeds ahead too quickly. I firmly believe that 10-20% price increase should occur in 2007 for all projects that can justify it in terms of higher rental yields. However, many "mass market" projects are not located in areas that would attract expat renters, therefore fundamentally I think their rents will always be much lower and buyers must beware of overly optimistic launch pricing in these projects...

So, I wouldn't haphazardly buy any new launch right now, but by the same token I would not yet worry that you need to be rushing for the exit either...

Wow, thank you so much for your expert advice. I an really a novice as compared to you guys.

Wow, thank you so much for your expert advice. I an really a novice as compared to you guys.


You are definitely not a novice. You had timed the purchases of Urbana and One Amber astutely.

Well actually, we only bot Urbana last month when we were in S'pore.

Wow, thank you so much for your expert advice. I an really a novice as compared to you guys.
hi exoticagal, you got the urbana unit from my colleague in savills right? 4th floor in urbana is selling at $1273PSF. st thomas area is going at $1800PSF now. you have definitely made the right choice in the 2 projects that you have purchased. seaview has crossed the $1k PSF, your one amber is now at around $950 PSF.

as mentioned by freelance, the fundamental is there, your investment is still safe now.:)

Wow, thank you so much for your expert advice. I an really a novice as compared to you guys.

not expert....just have a feeling =)

on the other hand, if u want to cover some downside, u may want to consider off-loading your Urbana....for equal price, i suspect u might find better rental yield at Newton or Holland area or Stevens Road....but i am not the biggest Urbana fan so u shd seek others' opinions too....

EDIT: just noticed u only bought last month so never mind =)

Your One Amber looks great though!

Urbana does not look nice, but its location is very much superior to Newton or Holland; comparable to Stevens.

Urbana does not look nice, but its location is very much superior to Newton or Holland; comparable to Stevens.

Urbana is surrounded by older and some run-down condos and it is located at a junction and thus explains for its slightly inferior pricing to some Newton projects. Also like what you said, it does not look very nice - more like an HDB block.

Urbana is surrounded by older and some run-down condos and it is located at a junction and thus explains for its slightly inferior pricing to some Newton projects. Also like what you said, it does not look very nice - more like an HDB block.

Personally, I like River Valley area, but don't think Urbana both location and design and qualities offer good value.

Newton's value is in its location, one station or less than 1 km to heart of high end Orchard (by high end i meant the stretch from Tanglin to Paragon, many shopping malls in Novena, and future MRT interchange cum commercial development.

We bought the Urbana unit basically because we thought that it is on a high floor (so hopefully got good view) and I always liked the River Valley area. Furthermore, coffee shops, NTUC, etc is just across the road and Orchard road is just a short walk away. Do agree that the building design is not as nice as the newer ones that are launched, but it was priced at a price that we could afford. Checked out the Rivergate which is down the road ....its really expensive.

Think we kinda got into the groove about buying properties in Singapore. They are launching Singapore properties in HK very aggressively. There is a new condo in Singapore launched here almost every weekend.

We bought the Urbana unit basically because we thought that it is on a high floor (so hopefully got good view) and I always liked the River Valley area. Furthermore, coffee shops, NTUC, etc is just across the road and Orchard road is just a short walk away. Do agree that the building design is not as nice as the newer ones that are launched, but it was priced at a price that we could afford. Checked out the Rivergate which is down the road ....its really expensive.

Think we kinda got into the groove about buying properties in Singapore. They are launching Singapore properties in HK very aggressively. There is a new condo in Singapore launched here almost every weekend.

I am quite sure you will be able to sell Urbana for a good profit, especially since it is on a high floor. Do not worry too much about some of the negative views. No development is perfect.

We were just wondering when is the best time to sell these properties as we think the property bubble in S'pore might burst soon and we don't want to be caught.
Hmmm... how about selling before we run out of construction sand from the government stockpile which may lead to construction worksites stopping work and projects halted except for certain high profile projects like the IRs?

In case you are not aware, Malaysia refused to sell us sand and now Indonesia has also banned all sand exports to Singapore. :ohno: sad news.

We have Vietnam,Burma and even Cambodia for sand supply.No worries.

the whole construction industry had work stoppage for a few days when the news was released....govt stockpile can last for about a month (considering contsruction boom came in recently) if vietnam stops one day (possible) then thats when the real collapse comes in....but anyway SAND aside...

if you are purchasing those condos as a means of Investment, you are an investor, as an investor, you will take all means necessary to yield the maximum profit possible, however, even so there are many investors who lose money as a result of either poor decisions or just a sudden and unexpected move of market forces.....

no one knows when the market will burst, expoerts can say a year later or 10 years later...but all it takes is one single person to spread the word like wildfire and the market will burst tomorrow...just like the wall street crash....seriously just sell it when you feel that it should be the time to...

we have passed the stage where there are massive purchases everywhere...

Hmmm... how about selling before we run out of construction sand from the government stockpile which may lead to construction worksites stopping work and projects halted except for certain high profile projects like the IRs?

In case you are not aware, Malaysia refused to sell us sand and now Indonesia has also banned all sand exports to Singapore. :ohno: sad news.

No sand would mean, construction cost goes up as they have to use alternative construction method, meaning property price will go up in the long run

No sand would mean, construction cost goes up as they have to use alternative construction method, meaning property price will go up in the long run

on top of that, i think the real significant impact would be in the rental market....would delay project completion of much-needed new units even longer than 2009/2010...therefore enhancing rental yields for investors and driving prices higher...

There is a thread on this topic in expatsingapore. If you guys have the time, read that too. The views there are, in my opinion, interesting and to a certain extent, an extension of what some of you have mentioned.

As for me, like most of you guys, I feel that the market has room to climb. This uptrend should be sustainable for the next few quarters. We should only start worrying when the mass and upgraders markets become hot with speculative activity. That sector is the "engine" of the economy and the government will want to keep it as efficient as possible.

Thank You all so much for your valuable input on the property market in Singapore. I read in some other threads that there is a possibility of building a Disneyland at Marina East. Is it true or just mere speculation? If that is the case, I should hold on to One Amber. Now with so many exciting projects coming up at the Marina area, I am sure the prices at the prime East Coast areas (Meyer Rd, Tanjong Rhu, Amber rd,etc) will sure to go up.:)

Looks like most of Singapore that can go enbloc will do so.More enbloc expected next year when another round of masterplan revision kicks in.So hold till 2008 at least.How can SG fail when so much has been vested in MBA and Sentosa.

Thank You all so much for your valuable input on the property market in Singapore. I read in some other threads that there is a possibility of building a Disneyland at Marina East. Is it true or just mere speculation? If that is the case, I should hold on to One Amber. Now with so many exciting projects coming up at the Marina area, I am sure the prices at the prime East Coast areas (Meyer Rd, Tanjong Rhu, Amber rd,etc) will sure to go up.:)

Note Disneyland have a history of asking competing cities for bids. Their original target was obviously Shanghai. This could be a foil to extract more from Shanghai govt.
Having said that, Singapore has made advances in the past year as a tourist destination. However, Shanghai should be the frontrunner due to the huge attraction of 1.4bn people.

Do u happen to know how much they are selling for psf? We are in Hk, so dun get to see advert.

Hi exotigal,

Today (3 Feb 07), The Straits Times has an approximate 6cm by 15 cm advertisement on Urbana.

It reads:

Book your 2 bedroom units now! (from S$1150 p.s.f. with deferred payment scheme).

If the agent tells u that there is Disneyland in the East ... and ask u to buy a unit nearby ... and u listen ... then ... u are like the victims of those "you-won-USD 1million-pls-send-admin-fee-of-USD20K-to-us-first" scam ...

Never listen to good things agents say ... it is the bad things they say about other projects that matters ...

Hope u learn something from the Guru ...

YFG ... ...

Another thing ...

I really dont like the title of this thread ... can the mod change it to something more positive ? Or we discuss in Property Market Trends ...

YFG ... ...

Property speculation - Don't get carried away

If you can't find a buyer willing to pay your asking price, a fate recently suffered by some speculators, you might have to forfeit what you've put down

By Leong Chan Teik
Feb 04, 2007
The Straits Times

IF YOU wonder how intensely some working folk might speculate in property, consider the story of a lawyer who bought 15 condominium units at the peak of the 1990s boom.
When he - and everyone else - was sure that property prices could only go up, the downturn happened. He had to sell at a loss and downgrade from his lavish home to a HUDC flat.

It is a good cautionary story for these times when speculative activity is again turning red-hot.


The tale of the luckless speculator was told by conveyancing lawyer Kim Cheong, a partner in the firm Low Yeap Toh & Goon.

It highlights a rarely acknowledged truth - that pitfalls and risks abound when people treat speculation as a surefire way to mint instant money.

In fact, some speculators have already suffered losses in this latest market boom.

At Marina Bay Residences, for example, a handful of options to buy units expired recently without being exercised after four weeks, reported The Business Times.

The speculators could not find buyers at their asking price and decided to forfeit what they had put down - typically, 1.25 per cent of the purchase price, or $12,500 for every $1 million. Units there ranged from $1 million to more than $10 million.

If they had exercised the options, they would have had to next cough up between 4 per cent and 20 per cent of the purchase price, plus up to 3 per cent for stamp duty.

Here are some risks to beware of:


People risks

FAMILY members or friends are teaming up to speculate without knowing whether their partners are overstretching themselves financially, says Ms Lie Chin Chin, a partner at law firm Lie Kee Pong Partnership.

Many are speculating on projects offering deferred payment schemes. This means they don't have to pay the bulk of the purchase price until a year or two later when the projects are nearing completion. When they book a property, they do not check with the bank regarding loans.

'I think some speculators don't have money set aside for mortgage instalments. They are just hoping to flip the property quickly,' says Ms Lie.

Some might not eventually qualify for a mortgage of the size they would need if they can't flip the unit, says Mr Mohd Ismail, the chief executive of real estate agent PropNex.

They could also discover their partner is less creditworthy than they had thought, which would affect the size of the loan approved, he notes.

Properties under speculation are chiefly luxury units, not mass-market ones, so the loans required will be high.

For other people, the crunch will come if they lose their job and cannot even qualify for a mortgage.

The risks rise the longer they hold on to a property.

'If one of them reaches a point where he says, 'We have to sell out or there'll be no food on my table', there will be lots of emotions to deal with, and their relationship will be tested,' says Ms Lie.

If one party refuses to sell - especially if it is at a loss - the other party can sell his share to the partner or an outsider for perhaps a below-market rate, suggests Ms Cheong of Low Yeap Toh & Goon.

Much pain can be averted if there is a written agreement on when to sell, or what price to sell at, says Mr Ismail. 'But most people don't do that.'


Profit risks

HOLDING a property incurs costs that have to be covered if you hope to sell for a profit.

Apart from stamp duty, you have to pay a few thousand dollars in legal fees, and a 1 per cent cancellation fee if you redeem your mortgage before the end of the lock-in period, typically three years.

Mortgages with floating interest rates and no lock-in periods might be more attractive, although the interest rates are higher, says PropNex senior associate manager Bryan Ong.


Payment risks

LET'S say you and a friend buy a property in either equal or unequal shares.

If your friend cannot pay his share of the mortgage, the bank mortgagee will come after you for the entire monthly instalment, whatever the size of your share of the ownership, says Ms Lie.

If the bank has to force-sell the property, it is also legally entitled to look to you for all of the outstanding loan, she adds.

To deal with this risk, Ms Lie suggests taking a type of mortgage where you and your partner(s) can deposit into a joint account a sum of money equivalent to one or two years' worth of instalments. You save on interest costs on a sum of the mortgage equivalent to the deposit.


Ownership risks

IF YOU buy a property with someone outside your family, you and your partner should own it as 'tenants in common', that is, each should have distinct shares, such as 50:50, or 60:40, says Mr Ismail of PropNex.

If one of the owners dies, his share goes to his estate.

This is unlike joint tenancy, where the surviving owner automatically inherits the entire share of the deceased. This is the type of arrangement spouses usually choose.

With quick gains on their minds, speculators could approach you to do a deal if you are lucky enough to work for a property developer or be invited to join the early birds at a launch.

Be wary about lending your name to a purchase in exchange for a cut of any profit.

Legally, you will be one of the owners, and this has serious implications. If your partner defaults on the instalments, the bank can look to you for all of the payment.

And if you later apply for a mortgage to buy your own property, the bank records will show you have already taken out a loan.

Your new loan application might not be approved if your income is insufficient to support two properties, says Ms Lie.

As for the other party, he faces risks that you could lay claim to the property.

He can protect his interest by having you sign a trust deed stating that he is the beneficial owner of the property, says Ms Lie.

This way, he will not lose any share to you - or your estate, if you die unexpectedly and your beneficiaries make a claim.

Tax risks

CAPITAL gains are generally not taxable but if they arise from frequent speculation, they will be taxed.

'If a person is in the business of buying and selling properties with a profit motive, the gains are considered trading profit and are hence taxable,' says the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore.

'In determining whether an individual is carrying on a trade, factors such as length of period of ownership, frequency or a number of similar transactions, will be considered,' it says.

If the individual is a resident for tax purposes, the income will be taxed at between

Property speculation - Don't get carried away
Tax risks

CAPITAL gains are generally not taxable but if they arise from frequent speculation, they will be taxed.

'If a person is in the business of buying and selling properties with a profit motive, the gains are considered trading profit and are hence taxable,' says the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore.

'In determining whether an individual is carrying on a trade, factors such as length of period of ownership, frequency or a number of similar transactions, will be considered,' it says.


The IRAS statement seems rather vague in the following sense :

"frequent speculation" - how often is considered frequent in the eyes of IRAS ?
"Profit motive" - how to argue/challenge one's motive ?
"period of ownership" - how long is non-speculative and will be taxed ?

Any comments from brothers here who I believed must have buy and sold properties like pancakes :lol: ? Did you have to pay capital gain tax ? Did IRAS come after you ?

Hi exotigal,

Today (4 Feb 07), The Sunday Times has a half-page advertisement in the main section on Urbana.

By the way, from the URA website ( http://spring.ura.gov.sg/lad/ore/real_estate/takeup.cfm ), as of Dec 06, all 126 units have been launched for sale, with 108 sold, leaving 18 units unsold.

The guru spake: I really dont like the title of this thread ... can the mod change it to something more positive ?

I agree, it looks particularly nasty when you look across the line and see "TODAY" ! :-)
Moderators: please rename it: Future Prospects for Singapore Property or something more neutral like that.

Hey, Wees, thank you for your update about Urbana, really appreciate it. Charging bull thank you very much for your information on speculative risks.

Well, we are not really speculators, just that all this hype we read and hear in Hong Kong got us a little excited about the prospects of making some money from our purchases....we initially plan to keep both...until I chanced upon this forum. Furthermore, every week in Hong Kong, there will be a supplement about properties round the world and Singapore property seems to be the hot one among the rich Hong Kong and Chinese people now. (Mainly due to the upcoming IR and initiatives the government have come up with...of course the air is also so much better in Singapore too...here in Hong Kong we are suffocating everyday due the smog and pollution) We will only sell if we can get a tidy profit if not we plan to keep both our places. The speculators should thank the South China Morning Post for promoting Singapore properties here thus increasing the demand for properties in Singapore by foreigners. Furthermore, the property agents and developers are also promoting Singapore properties in the newspapers here every week. There are really so many really rich people in Hong Kong and China now who won't even bat an eyelid in paying their purchases in full, all in cash.

Well, if you want to know how to really live luxuriously, Singaporeans should learn from the Hong Kong people. The place that we are staying now in Hong Kong is so amazing, you will never find anything like this in Singapore. There is nothing in front of my condo except the sea (though it can get a bit scary when the typhoon comes). The clubhouse has its own restaurant, spa, hair salon, indoor and outdoor swimming pool (with slide, water feature, etc), chidrens' playground (indoor and outdoor), basketball court, badminton court , gym, pilates room, karaoke room, band room, computer room, meditation room, childrens' library, 5 function rooms, cigar room, digital cinema, reading lounge, table tennis room, private wine cellar for people to rent to place their prized wines, concierge for every block, yacht club( we can hire the yacht or the club organises trips the the other islands, etc), a private plane (for u to hire to bring u to Asian countries), cars for rental (Rolls Royce, Porsche, Ferrari, etc) and the list goes on. Its like staying in your own resort, do not need to go anywhere else. Wonder if the Sail and St Regis Residences will be like that. It will be the only thing I will really miss when we relocate back to Singapore.

hi exoticgal,

The place that you are currently staying at is amazing. What is the size of your unit and the rental?

When will you relocate back to Singapore?

and what part of Hong Kong is it? sounds amazing.

Exoticgal, sounds like a place I've heard of from my boss. :lol:

Well, if you want to know how to really live luxuriously, Singaporeans should learn from the Hong Kong people. The place that we are staying now in Hong Kong is so amazing, you will never find anything like this in Singapore. There is nothing in front of my condo except the sea (though it can get a bit scary when the typhoon comes). The clubhouse has its own restaurant, spa, hair salon, indoor and outdoor swimming pool (with slide, water feature, etc), chidrens' playground (indoor and outdoor), basketball court, badminton court , gym, pilates room, karaoke room, band room, computer room, meditation room, childrens' library, 5 function rooms, cigar room, digital cinema, reading lounge, table tennis room, private wine cellar for people to rent to place their prized wines, concierge for every block, yacht club( we can hire the yacht or the club organises trips the the other islands, etc), a private plane (for u to hire to bring u to Asian countries), cars for rental (Rolls Royce, Porsche, Ferrari, etc) and the list goes on. Its like staying in your own resort, do not need to go anywhere else. Wonder if the Sail and St Regis Residences will be like that. It will be the only thing I will really miss when we relocate back to Singapore.



Hi exoticgal,

You can try staying at the St Regis Residence when you return. You won't be able to get ocean views but I'm certain the rest of the facilities you have mentioned in your post should be comparable. I expect some (restuarants, spa, hair saloon, concierge service, etc) to be better too.

SI

Here's a guess Exoticgal .... you live in Bel Air in Pok Fu Lam

Or Hong Kong Parkview?

Viper5, you have guessed it right...Its Residence Bel Air at Pok Fu Lam on Hong Kong Island......forgot to add that we have a cinema just next to the development which was one of the most important thing when we decided where to stay in Hong Kong. The fittings in each apartment also has top quality finishes. The kitchen is fitted with Gaggenau oven, microwave, steamer(so u can just pop your seafood in and press start), bbq grill(with lava stones in-built with the cooker hob), smeg fridge. Phones are B & O. Toilets all Hansgrohe and we have a jacuzzi cum tub in my master toilet. We were so amazed when the housing agent brought us here...it was so unbelievable. We are paying about HKD$40 000 a month(inclusive of carpark) and the apartment has 3 bedrooms, 1700+ sq ft. It is considered very reasonable at this moment where rents are rising in Hong Kong. You can click on the link below to see some pictures of the apartments.

http://www.hongkonghomes.com/hong_kong_property/eng/for_rent/property_info.php?pro_id=7867&direct=1

http://www.hongkonghomes.com/hong_kong_property/eng/for_rent/property_info.php?pro_id=24181&direct=1

wow! what a place to leave in.

The speculators should thank the South China Morning Post for promoting Singapore properties here thus increasing the demand for properties in Singapore by foreigners.

Thank you Robert Kuok :)

exoticgal ...

You shldnt come back ... continue to stay there ...

Haha~!

YFG ... ...

Ya, dun come back. Live the life of a HK tai tai. :lol:

Wow, u truly are Singaporean.
by the way you forgot to boast about your salary.go on, make us salivate

We really hope to come back to Singapore soon. Miss all my family, food and friends. Eating here can be quite scary because many of the produce comes from China and you really don't know what you are eating (the latest being the supermarkets were selling some kind of oil fish but labelled it as Cod Fish. Apparently, the fish had wax in it and many people came down with food poisoning). Then you hear about the eggs contain cancer causing agents, then the fish, then the chickens have Avian flu, etc. Furthermore, the air is so much cleaner in Singapore. We are perpetually sick all the time because of the pollution. I'd rather come back and live like a normal Singaporean and be in the company of family and friends. Furthermore, I think the quality of life is so much better in Singapore. You guys should be lucky to be in Singapore, how I wish.....

On another note, the interesting thing about Hong Kong is that most of the buildings are really tall as compared to Singapore (but it seems that condos are going higher now in the latest projects in Singapore). I think the highest floor (penthouse) in Residence Bel Air is the 56th. I also think the skyline in Hong Kong is much nicer and colourful (all the neon lights, etc). However, due to the new downtown and newer buildings coming up, the skyline in Singapore might change. What do you guys think? For those who are well travelled, which country do you think has the nicest skyline?

However, due to the new downtown and newer buildings coming up, the skyline in Singapore might change. What do you guys think? For those who are well travelled, which conuntry do you think has the nicest skyline?

Yes, there has been some good press a few months ago about the "lighting up" of the S'pore skyline....A lot of buildings - both new and old - will be adding LED lighting, etc. to spruce up the night skyline view, which will be great....once you add the IR, think it will really give Marina Bay a very unique look that will be recognizable as "singapore" around the world...

Other skylines I like (all for different reasons) - Hong Kong, Shanghai, New York, San Francisco (when it is not fogged in), Boston, Vancouver, San Diego, Prague.....think a skyline is particularly appealling when it is contrasted with water (either seaside or riverside)....don't really like any landlocked cities.

Should we get back to the main topic of this thread...?

My take on this.... looking at a broader picture....

Demographics wise - > 85% of the Singapore population lives in the HDB that is provided by the government. Private residential properties and dwellings will therefore represent < 15% of the population. Price escalation over the past 1 - 2 years has been focusing only on the high end (super high end) properties. This segment is probably no more than 5%. The price momentum is now trickled to the mid-market segment. The bulk of the mass market condos have little or no price appreciation at all over the last 2 – 3 years. HDB echo a similar story.

Property bubble..... ?????
The government is not even concern. Several ministers have made comments about this. We are looking at no more than 10% of the population. I strongly believe the government is letting the market determine the prices. Their priority is on the 85% of the voting population and providing them with affordable housing as promised.

With the positive sentiment with the outlook ahead (global city vision, vision of a vibrant city, IR, hub, etc.) looking rosy coupled with the past strong economic numbers (GDP up, record number of jobs recreated, companies reporting good profits, etc.) from 2004 – 2006. Everyone is bullish especially the foreigners. Just look at the STI and you’ll understand. Local and foreigners alike with money (e.g. from the stock market, etc.) are flocking to park their new found wealth into properties. Then there is also the element of pent-up demand with the local property market scene being in the doldrums for almost 10 years (since 1996-7 highs). Singapore is among the last “cosmopolitan city” to ride the property boom. The likes of other cities in Europe (e.g. London), USA (e.g. New York, California, Boston, etc.) and Asia (e.g. HK, Shanghai, Beijing, Bombay, Bangkok, Sydney, Melbourne, etc.) have already move way upwards. Worrying about the hot property markets in these cities, their local government have also implemented policies to curb over-heating by implementing measures.

Until we see the likes of mass market housing like HDB, EC and to a certain extent mass market condos make substantial strides in price movement upwards, I guess there is not much to worry about with regards to a property bubble setting in. Unlike the early to mid-1990s situation when mass market property prices went up so much and so fast that it became “out-of-control”. I remembered a case when a HDB (penthouse) unit in Bishan going for as much as S$700,000 (maybe more). This is way higher than the actual valuation of the house itself. The perceived value outstrips reality. When it all came crashing down, with the chain of events one after another - asian financial crisis, SARs, 9-11, global recession, war in Iraq, etc.), the property market took a nose dive and it has been down with “no light at the end of the tunnel” (negative growth) until probably mid-2004.

Lastly – Is the uptrend moving too fast for the private property scene (< 10% of the total dwellings in Singapore)? Is this an intended direction?

The last policy change by the government (relaxed rulings) has started to kick-in. This is a positive step the government took to spruce up the property market and not be left behind. There is a lot that Singapore can offer – this is spelt out very clearly. Foreign talents are encouraged to set-up home/shop here. Bring your money and invest here. We all welcome you with open arms. With the property looking attractive (as compared with the others in the region), they flock here. Among them – sheiks with oil money (from the extraordinary rise of the commodity), rich Indonesians, Chinese (HK), ang-mos, etc. Of course the rich locals also make up the numbers. At the end of the day, what we are talking about here is no more than 10% of the property dwellings. And from the looks of things, it is pretty obvious that the government actions and policies are allowing market forces to act. If demand outstrips supply, then there will obviously be price escalation. This will continue and we are seeing it unfolding in front of us. New bench-marks will be set for sure. En-bloc every other week. Singapore is a boom town. It will be from the looks of things …. At least for the next couple of years.

PS: Bring in foreign money into Singapore – noticed why the 2 IR were awarded not awarded to any consortium with a Singapore GLC? They are all awarded to “outsiders”. Genting Holdings/Star Cruise (Sentosa) and Sands (Marina). It is because it’ll be 100% funded by “outside” money. If it’s a GLC linked JV, then we (Temasek) will foot part of the bill (e.g. 40% of the total cost). Each IR is valued at about S$5 billion a pop. If its 40%, then it’ll be S$2 billion out of the pocket. To take such risk …. ?? at something we have no idea and experience with? Call it casino, MICE, theme parks, IR …. This is a new playing field we are entering and I sensed that we will learn and learn fast from these premiere league players. Each awarded IR license issued comes with conditions and of course expiry.

This is my 2 cents worth

Should we get back to the main topic of this thread...?

My take on this.... looking at a broader picture....

Demographics wise - > 85% of the Singapore population lives in the HDB that is provided by the government. Private residential properties and dwellings will therefore represent < 15% of the population. Price escalation over the past 1 - 2 years has been focusing only on the high end (super high end) properties. This segment is probably no more than 5%. The price momentum is now trickled to the mid-market segment. The bulk of the mass market condos have little or no price appreciation at all over the last 2 – 3 years. HDB echo a similar story.

Property bubble..... ?????
The government is not even concern. Several ministers have made comments about this. We are looking at no more than 10% of the population. I strongly believe the government is letting the market determine the prices. Their priority is on the 85% of the voting population and providing them with affordable housing as promised.

With the positive sentiment with the outlook ahead (global city vision, vision of a vibrant city, IR, hub, etc.) looking rosy coupled with the past strong economic numbers (GDP up, record number of jobs recreated, companies reporting good profits, etc.) from 2004 – 2006. Everyone is bullish especially the foreigners. Just look at the STI and you’ll understand. Local and foreigners alike with money (e.g. from the stock market, etc.) are flocking to park their new found wealth into properties. Then there is also the element of pent-up demand with the local property market scene being in the doldrums for almost 10 years (since 1996-7 highs). Singapore is among the last “cosmopolitan city” to ride the property boom. The likes of other cities in Europe (e.g. London), USA (e.g. New York, California, Boston, etc.) and Asia (e.g. HK, Shanghai, Beijing, Bombay, Bangkok, Sydney, Melbourne, etc.) have already move way upwards. Worrying about the hot property markets in these cities, their local government have also implemented policies to curb over-heating by implementing measures.

Until we see the likes of mass market housing like HDB, EC and to a certain extent mass market condos make substantial strides in price movement upwards, I guess there is not much to worry about with regards to a property bubble setting in. Unlike the early to mid-1990s situation when mass market property prices went up so much and so fast that it became “out-of-control”. I remembered a case when a HDB (penthouse) unit in Bishan going for as much as S$700,000 (maybe more). This is way higher than the actual valuation of the house itself. The perceived value outstrips reality. When it all came crashing down, with the chain of events one after another - asian financial crisis, SARs, 9-11, global recession, war in Iraq, etc.), the property market took a nose dive and it has been down with “no light at the end of the tunnel” (negative growth) until probably mid-2004.

Lastly – Is the uptrend moving too fast for the private property scene (< 10% of the total dwellings in Singapore)? Is this an intended direction?

The last policy change by the government (relaxed rulings) has started to kick-in. This is a positive step the government took to spruce up the property market and not be left behind. There is a lot that Singapore can offer – this is spelt out very clearly. Foreign talents are encouraged to set-up home/shop here. Bring your money and invest here. We all welcome you with open arms. With the property looking attractive (as compared with the others in the region), they flock here. Among them – sheiks with oil money (from the extraordinary rise of the commodity), rich Indonesians, Chinese (HK), ang-mos, etc. Of course the rich locals also make up the numbers. At the end of the day, what we are talking about here is no more than 10% of the property dwellings. And from the looks of things, it is pretty obvious that the government actions and policies are allowing market forces to act. If demand outstrips supply, then there will obviously be price escalation. This will continue and we are seeing it unfolding in front of us. New bench-marks will be set for sure. En-bloc every other week. Singapore is a boom town. It will be from the looks of things …. At least for the next couple of years.

PS: Bring in foreign money into Singapore – noticed why the 2 IR were awarded not awarded to any consortium with a Singapore GLC? They are all awarded to “outsiders”. Genting Holdings/Star Cruise (Sentosa) and Sands (Marina). It is because it’ll be 100% funded by “outside” money. If it’s a GLC linked JV, then we (Temasek) will foot part of the bill (e.g. 40% of the total cost). Each IR is valued at about S$5 billion a pop. If its 40%, then it’ll be S$2 billion out of the pocket. To take such risk …. ?? at something we have no idea and experience with? Call it casino, MICE, theme parks, IR …. This is a new playing field we are entering and I sensed that we will learn and learn fast from these premiere league players. Each awarded IR license issued comes with conditions and of course expiry.

This is my 2 cents worththis article has chance to land in straits times:)

Exoticgal ...

I feel the same as u ... being in a foreign country ... makes me value Singapore even more ... and I can understand how the foreigners feel ... when they leave their ... eeerrmm ... polluted, unsafe, chaotic, how-to-stay-here place ... they have no qualms about paying more to stay in a nice place like Singapore ...

Like me now ... I also wish to be back in Singapore ... and be a normal Singaporean ... the apartment here maybe big ... the people here may treat me like King ... but ... whats the point right ?

YFG ... ...

Property bubble..... ?????
The government is not even concern. Several ministers have made comments about this. We are looking at no more than 10% of the population. I strongly believe the government is letting the market determine the prices. Their priority is on the 85% of the voting population and providing them with affordable housing as promised.

With the positive sentiment with the outlook ahead (global city vision, vision of a vibrant city, IR, hub, etc.) looking rosy coupled with the past strong economic numbers (GDP up, record number of jobs recreated, companies reporting good profits, etc.) from 2004 – 2006. Everyone is bullish especially the foreigners. Just look at the STI and you’ll understand. Local and foreigners alike with money (e.g. from the stock market, etc.) are flocking to park their new found wealth into properties. Then there is also the element of pent-up demand with the local property market scene being in the doldrums for almost 10 years (since 1996-7 highs). Singapore is among the last “cosmopolitan city” to ride the property boom. The likes of other cities in Europe (e.g. London), USA (e.g. New York, California, Boston, etc.) and Asia (e.g. HK, Shanghai, Beijing, Bombay, Bangkok, Sydney, Melbourne, etc.) have already move way upwards. Worrying about the hot property markets in these cities, their local government have also implemented policies to curb over-heating by implementing measures.

Lastly – Is the uptrend moving too fast for the private property scene (< 10% of the total dwellings in Singapore)? Is this an intended direction?

The last policy change by the government (relaxed rulings) has started to kick-in. This is a positive step the government took to spruce up the property market and not be left behind. There is a lot that Singapore can offer – this is spelt out very clearly. Foreign talents are encouraged to set-up home/shop here. Bring your money and invest here. We all welcome you with open arms. With the property looking attractive (as compared with the others in the region), they flock here. Among them – sheiks with oil money (from the extraordinary rise of the commodity), rich Indonesians, Chinese (HK), ang-mos, etc. Of course the rich locals also make up the numbers. At the end of the day, what we are talking about here is no more than 10% of the property dwellings. And from the looks of things, it is pretty obvious that the government actions and policies are allowing market forces to act. If demand outstrips supply, then there will obviously be price escalation. This will continue and we are seeing it unfolding in front of us. New bench-marks will be set for sure. En-bloc every other week. Singapore is a boom town. It will be from the looks of things …. At least for the next couple of years.


This is my 2 cents worth[/quote]

Jacky Lemon, fully agreed with your analysis and a brief history of the global properties development.

Noticeably, all booms & bursts of property bubbles are related to government policy. The most recent severe burst (more than 10 yrs now) must be the one in Japan where no foreseeable sign of full recovery. They don't even want to increase its interest rate lately.

Whereas in UK, the government allows the CPI going into inflationary & alarming level & yet reluctant to hike rate to substain it. Given that the properties appreciated more than double for the last 10 years & no sign of slowing.

The list can go on for many other countries. My guess is that most governments are willing to tackle inflation (they have control of interest rates) as opposed to deflation. We all know that Japan has 0 interest rate for years and its recovery is still slow and painful.

Hey all ...

Just in case you have not been to the ground ... the no more than 10% of the population is no longer a valid number liao ..

Look ... even those Aunties @ Yew Tee (hey it rhymes) ... are starting to feel the heat and cheong-ing showflats as if they are bua gua @ Chinese NY. Thus, it may be fair to say that ... in the next 2 quarters, the mass market will start moving ... and then ... will gahmen step in ?

Think ... Think ... Think ...

YFG ... ...

Hey all ...

Just in case you have not been to the ground ... the no more than 10% of the population is no longer a valid number liao ..

Look ... even those Aunties @ Yew Tee (hey it rhymes) ... are starting to feel the heat and cheong-ing showflats as if they are bua gua @ Chinese NY. Thus, it may be fair to say that ... in the next 2 quarters, the mass market will start moving ... and then ... will gahmen step in ?

Think ... Think ... Think ...

YFG ... ...

Hi Guru!

Just wondering .. do we belong to the 10% or the 90%??? :lol:

The aunties and uncles who go to the showflats are cash rich! .. That's why it looks like they are going to buy only bah guah mah!

On a serious note, I think the government will only step in when people's debt/cash ratio gets too high. I'm believe they are monitoring this.

SI

To know whether you are the 10% or the 90% ... refer to IRAS publication on the different bands of taxation ...

I use income as a measure ... every year, IRAS publish the different income bands and how many people there are ... think maybe the ministers' pay is determined by some same measure ...

But ... my point is ... the cheong-ing is no longer just for high-end liao ... the normal folks are already jumping in ...

I expect the gahmen to step in by end of the year or early next year ... when all the developers already make all the money ... haha !

SI : Are u vested ?

YFG ... ...

But ... my point is ... the cheong-ing is no longer just for high-end liao ... the normal folks are already jumping in ...

I expect the gahmen to step in by end of the year or early next year ... when all the developers already make all the money ... haha !

SI : Are u vested ?

YFG ... ...

Hi Guru,

I see your point. Are you expecting the government to introduce capital gains tax again?

I'm not vested yet but my family is.

SI

Dont quote me hor ...

Step in doesnt mean Cap Gain tax ... can be anything ...

YFG ... ...

Hi Guru,

I see your point. Are you expecting the government to introduce capital gains tax again?

I'm not vested yet but my family is.

SI

Capital Gain tax again? You mean Singapore used to have Capital Gains tax ? How long ago was that ? I guess I must be still studying :)

Can't help but notice the word "yet". Are you going to make your killer move soon ?

Ayanami must be a Scorpio ... haha!

So good at catching this kinda of things ...

Singapore used to have a cap gain tax ... if u sell the property within 1 year of purchase ... the profit is deemed as your personal income ... 2 years 50% and 3 years is 25% ... I think ...

YFG ... ...

Singapore used to have a cap gain tax ... if u sell the property within 1 year of purchase ... the profit is deemed as your personal income ... 2 years 50% and 3 years is 25% ... I think ...


If I remember correctly, it's
100% of profits taxable within 1 year.
2/3 of profits taxable from year 1 to year 2.
1/3 of profits taxable from year 2 to year 3.
Year 3 onwards, all yours compliments from the tax office.

Capital Gain tax again? You mean Singapore used to have Capital Gains tax ? How long ago was that ? I guess I must be still studying :)

Can't help but notice the word "yet". Are you going to make your killer move soon ?

Yes.

During the last property boom cycle. 95? 96? It was abolished just after 00 if i'm not wrong.

Erm .. Sheeehh! :)

If I remember correctly, it's
100% of profits taxable within 1 year.
2/3 of profits taxable from year 1 to year 2.
1/3 of profits taxable from year 2 to year 3.
Year 3 onwards, all yours compliments from the tax office.

Thanks. But now don't have already, right ?

YFG, I am not a Scorpio, but a Libra --- the sign of balance, harmony and beauty.

Do you also know the typical spread between purchase price under deferred vs progressive payment scheme ?
I have one specific price given to me recently last Dec, and the difference is 2%. Is it high or low ?

And is it typical, conventional wisdom to take deferred payment scheme when available ? (to leverage on the Other People's Money (OPM) that all financial books seem to preach).

there's no more tax on capital gain from property. this was removed to rejuvenate the property market.

however, as mentioned ealier in this thread or another thread. if IRAs deem that u are speculating on properties and this become your primary source of income. it will be taxable as personal income.

cheers

sharkie

the premium seems to be between 2 to 4% of progressive payment price.

Sorry ... made a mistake on the tax rate ... but the idea is there la hor ... hehe

DPS ... the rate is about 2% ... but also depends on how long they let u defer ... some developers ... damn smart ... only let u defer 1 year ... then charge u 2% more ... 2% on the whole price leh ..

Let that might as well take loan and pay ... haha!

YFG (Property, Banking & Finance) ... ...

"And is it typical, conventional wisdom to take deferred payment scheme when available ? (to leverage on the Other People's Money (OPM) that all financial books seem to preach)."

OPM is one of the biggest frauds in history. Recently I bought a car. Take loan right? 2% only! Well, actually when you look at the fine print it's more like 6 or even 8%. Never mind lah, you can do better than that on the stock market! Really? THEN WHY DOESN'T THE BANK GAMBLE, err sorry I mean INVEST ON THE STOCK MARKET instead of charitably letting me have their money at ONLY 8%? Same goes for property. They will offer you all kinds of deals for the first year, and then jack up your interest rate to the skies after that.

All this "take a loan and use the money" talk is a load of crap, unless you are a businessman and can really use the money in your own business --- maybe. My STRONG advice is: ALWAYS take the smallest loan you possibly can, and ALWAYS pay it off just as fast as you can. Pirates didn't go extinct -- they just turned into bankers. If you really think you can outsmart those guys and do better than they can.....well why bother with stocks, just wait and "invest" your money in roulette and poker, if you are that lucky.

So in the end I told the car salespeople that I would be paying cash. Not that I am so rich...but I can do it. They nearly flipped. WHAT? NOBODY PAYS CASH!!! IT JUST ISN'T DONE!! Well, it is now.

"And is it typical, conventional wisdom to take deferred payment scheme when available ? (to leverage on the Other People's Money (OPM) that all financial books seem to preach)."

OPM is one of the biggest frauds in history. Recently I bought a car. Take loan right? 2% only! Well, actually when you look at the fine print it's more like 6 or even 8%. Never mind lah, you can do better than that on the stock market! Really? THEN WHY DOESN'T THE BANK GAMBLE, err sorry I mean INVEST ON THE STOCK MARKET instead of charitably letting me have their money at ONLY 8%? Same goes for property. They will offer you all kinds of deals for the first year, and then jack up your interest rate to the skies after that.

All this "take a loan and use the money" talk is a load of crap, unless you are a businessman and can really use the money in your own business --- maybe. My STRONG advice is: ALWAYS take the smallest loan you possibly can, and ALWAYS pay it off just as fast as you can. Pirates didn't go extinct -- they just turned into bankers. If you really think you can outsmart those guys and do better than they can.....well why bother with stocks, just wait and "invest" your money in roulette and poker, if you are that lucky.

So in the end I told the car salespeople that I would be paying cash. Not that I am so rich...but I can do it. They nearly flipped. WHAT? NOBODY PAYS CASH!!! IT JUST ISN'T DONE!! Well, it is now.

Most millionaires became millionaires (other than top earning professionals) through leveraging.

Hi Sui ...

You are right from the risk management view ... esp if you are the type who buy own house and stay ... then quickly pay off the loan ... if you have spare, not-used cash in the bank earning 0.X% pa ... why go borrow for 3.5% ... smart!

But! If you know that condo price will go up by at least 10% this year ... and if you buy a condo at say 1 million, you pay $200K (assume u borrow all of these from the banks - shhh dont tell MAS) ... while waiting for the condo to be build ... you sell it for $1.1m (for simplicity, ignoring trans costs) ... you make 50% of the $200K you put in ! Cost of Funds = say 6% of $200K = $12K, return = $100k - $12k = $88K (lucky number some more!) ...

So ... see OPM works ... except u take the risk lor ... but as in other things ... low risk = low return ...

YFG ... ...

"And is it typical, conventional wisdom to take deferred payment scheme when available ? (to leverage on the Other People's Money (OPM) that all financial books seem to preach)."

OPM is one of the biggest frauds in history. Recently I bought a car. Take loan right? 2% only! Well, actually when you look at the fine print it's more like 6 or even 8%. Never mind lah, you can do better than that on the stock market! Really? THEN WHY DOESN'T THE BANK GAMBLE, err sorry I mean INVEST ON THE STOCK MARKET instead of charitably letting me have their money at ONLY 8%? Same goes for property. They will offer you all kinds of deals for the first year, and then jack up your interest rate to the skies after that.

All this "take a loan and use the money" talk is a load of crap, unless you are a businessman and can really use the money in your own business --- maybe. My STRONG advice is: ALWAYS take the smallest loan you possibly can, and ALWAYS pay it off just as fast as you can. Pirates didn't go extinct -- they just turned into bankers. If you really think you can outsmart those guys and do better than they can.....well why bother with stocks, just wait and "invest" your money in roulette and poker, if you are that lucky.

So in the end I told the car salespeople that I would be paying cash. Not that I am so rich...but I can do it. They nearly flipped. WHAT? NOBODY PAYS CASH!!! IT JUST ISN'T DONE!! Well, it is now.

ha, i pay my bmw in cash too, though my car has only one year to 10 year COE. At the end, i pay 32000 to drive BMW for a year and got 28000 cash back, not bad with $4000 depreciation.

Actually, cash is really king. most of the people maybe look rich but most of their thing are asset e.g. property. Some can't even have 100k saving after working more than 20 years in manager role.

So i agree we should try to minimize loan holding as much as possible, so that we can reach financial freedom at the end

DPS or PPS does not really matter, it just depends on the person. At the end you pay the same. I believe it is around 3% difference, and this is based on the interest rate used and the timing of payments. If you are very short time and you want max your capital, then the lower the payment the bigger the bet. If you are mid term, and can't be bothered with making several payments, then DPS is better. By TOP, there is no real difference as the discount is cancelled by the interest on money (however if interest rate shoots up, then you will make additional killing on the DPS - i.e. higher rate=bigger discount)

Although millionaires get rich by leveraging, both DPS and PPS are leveraged anyway ! Also lots of bankrupts go broke by leveraging !!

Hi all !

Let me introduce you the most impt concept of OPM ... which many peple are not aware ...

This is the concept of Revenue/Expense matching ... you can use OPM ... IF AND ONLY IF ... you are able to match the rental income you are getting with the interest expense you are paying ... if your rental income is not sufficient to pay for the interest (or interest plus principle = monthly instalment) ... then OPM will not help because you must fork out additional cash yourself to sustain the transaction ...

Another thing I noted ... there is no correlation between using OPM and and property losses ...

OPM will magnify the gains or losses in your investments ...

Cheers!
YFG ... ...

I don't expect property to burst any time soon, especially since Temasek-Linked Capitaland just sunk half a billion S$ into Gillman Heights.

Hi seakei ...

That is another not-so-good comment ... CapLand bought the Rivergate site in 1999 (I think) before the market corrected ... I believe that Capland and Temasek is not linked in such a way ...

Hope those reading this forum down be too euphoric over the increases and permanance of this increase ... no doubt market will not correct tomorrow ... but ... do invest with caution ...

Good luck to all !

YFG ... ...

Bubble is getting bigger after CNY.Mah says no bubble in prooerty market.

Bubble is getting bigger after CNY.Mah says no bubble in prooerty market.

Sailorman,

could you further explain your thoughts .... ? how is the bubble getting bigger after CNY?

Gahment says no bubble.
Developers greet the statement with glee.
Rich ppl welcome developers to built more posh properties.I have you dont have.
Big fund managers come in after looking at north and south of the island.
Developers team up with big boys with money.Mega projects planned.
HUDC estates are been bought up.More this year.East Coast,Braddell etc.
More millionaires created overnight this year.Ppl happy.After so long they have come a long way.Their old properties and run down flats have such good value.Singapore ppl like new thrills and cars,maybe women.They also like new toilets and flats.Can get 90% loan some more.Pay peanuts to buy new.No need to pay for one whole year.Sell and earn profit before one year up.Thats good leh.Aiya buy first then talk.Someone's logo here is dont wait to buy but buy and wait.Woh how true!

Gahment says no bubble.
Developers greet the statement with glee.
Rich ppl welcome developers to built more posh properties.I have you dont have.
Big fund managers come in after looking at north and south of the island.
Developers team up with big boys with money.Mega projects planned.
HUDC estates are been bought up.More this year.East Coast,Braddell etc.
More millionaires created overnight this year.Ppl happy.After so long they have come a long way.Their old properties and run down flats have such good value.Singapore ppl like new thrills and cars,maybe women.They also like new toilets and flats.Can get 90% loan some more.Pay peanuts to buy new.No need to pay for one whole year.Sell and earn profit before one year up.Thats good leh.Aiya buy first then talk.Someone's logo here is dont wait to buy but buy and wait.Woh how true!



:bash: :)

Below report partially extracted from Straits Times few days ago.


Tax risks

Capital gains are generally not taxable but if they arise from frequent speculation, they will be taxed.

‘If a person is in the business of buying and selling properties with a profit motive, the gains are considered trading profit and are hence taxable,’ says the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore.

‘In determining whether an individual is carrying on a trade, factors such as length of period of ownership, frequency or a number of similar transactions, will be considered,’ it says.

If the individual is a resident for tax purposes, the income will be taxed at between 3.5 per cent and 20 per cent. For a non-resident taxpayer, the rate is a flat 20 per cent.

Source: The Straits Times, 04 February 2007

Gahment says no bubble.
Developers greet the statement with glee.
Rich ppl welcome developers to built more posh properties.I have you dont have.
Big fund managers come in after looking at north and south of the island.
Developers team up with big boys with money.Mega projects planned.
HUDC estates are been bought up.More this year.East Coast,Braddell etc.
More millionaires created overnight this year.Ppl happy.After so long they have come a long way.Their old properties and run down flats have such good value.Singapore ppl like new thrills and cars,maybe women.They also like new toilets and flats.Can get 90% loan some more.Pay peanuts to buy new.No need to pay for one whole year.Sell and earn profit before one year up.Thats good leh.Aiya buy first then talk.Someone's logo here is dont wait to buy but buy and wait.Woh how true!

For the low-down and the bolts-and-nuts of the property bubble ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_bubble

cases of the property bubble in different countries are also reviewed.

As far as the current singapore property story is concern - 85% of the population is living in mass market housing called HDB. Bulk of these has hardly any price appreciation in the last 2 years. In fact, its only the 2 quarters that HDB registered price uptrend. Prices today remains affordable. It wasn't like in the mid-1990s when we all witnessed the mass-market prices went up so much that it went out of control. Today price-to-wages ratios, rent-to-wages ratios etc remains stable and affordable.

I'm still keen to pick your mind ....

just my 2-cents.

Hi !

I think ... when we talk about the bubble ... we have to make it clear is it the high-end bubble or the mass market bubble ... since we admit that the market is now split into these 2 classes.

But we must also note that when high end goes up ... the impact on the mass market may not be significant (which I strong dont believe) ... when high end bubble burst, it doesnt mean mass market wont be affected ...

YFG ... ...

Anyway, when it burst high-end speculators will get caught, they will be caught with the bomb in their hand ! Ha ha ! Its the rule of the game, somebody will get the last catch ! But anyway, they are reasonably rich to bear the losses, so no harm done to the general public....

nolimt ...

Do you think we are worried about the rich being the last catch ? NO!

We are worried about the 100 X (5 uncles + 5 aunties) who pool money together to buy ... or those who borrow ... if they go bankrupt ... then there is ripple effect on the rest of us ...

YFG ... ...

Its the risk ppl have to take, if they care to join the real rich out there thinking they can easily make a quick profit.........then you have to face the consequences..... !

I'm still quite bullish on the Singapore property market.

Didn't the Govt come out recently to say that they are targetting a population of 6.5m? That's another 2m people! Imagine how high prices will go if this eventuates - and knowing the Singapore Govt, if they want something to happen, I wouldn't bet against it.

That gahmen also never say these 2million people will be all staying in condo ...

YFG ... ...

That gahmen also never say these 2million people will be all staying in condo ...

YFG ... ...

Agreed. That's why the govt opened up the HDB rental market by relaxing the rules. Now 650,000 HDB flats can be rented out (hope I got my number right).

And ... for those high class never stay in HDB before people here ..

HDB rentals are going up ... and at an alarming rate !!!

Check them out ...

YFG ... ...

That gahmen also never say these 2million people will be all staying in condo ...

YFG ... ...

:rofl:

typically I think a property market will burst if economic fundamentals do not support the property prices. e.g. when rentals run so far ahead that economic competitiveness is no longer there.

however, I think leading to the IR and into 2010, there will still be alot of buzz. a 6 billion dollar investment is no small sum and our government will try her best to make sure this investment succeeds and this will be translated into favorable policies for FDIs. There maybe a future for Marina Casino Bay?? who knows... You have The Strip, etc... for casino to really succeed, you need to have that cluster...

just keep a watch on the bird flu and accelerated ripple effects of global warming.

just my 2 cents.

Rentals are already looking uncompetitive in a number of districts, esp where foreign professionals are concerned.

To my mind also if the rate of property appreciation outgrows the fundamentals (and the economy did not grow at 13% last year!) then we have signs of a speculative bubble.

Will it burst in 2009 when 18,000 odd units come on to the market at once? (3 times the annual average according to a real estate study).

well, rentals may look uncompetitive for some. for others, it is well within global range of global cities (for e.g. the investment or PE banks) and they don't mind paying this current for D9/10 rental rates. Alot depends on the industry/company you work in. Globally diversified companies will not think twice about locating their office in Millenia/Centennial Tower. Some even have their backoffice there, can you imagine?

So, comparing property appreciation (especially the high end one) to actual GDP growth can be wrong. Remember, that high end properties attract global investors and global investors are tuned to global prices.

So ... anyone predicting when will the party end ?
And of course ... why u think so ?

YFG ... ...

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=452762&page=3

Seeing this scares me a little actually. Reminds me of the time before the 97 crash.

I don't think so fast... property cycle typically last 5 to 7 years. Now we are entering into the 3rd year.

but trying to predict when property market will crash is as hard as predicting when the stock market will crash...

for now, just make sure you buy with the power to hold... more developers are removing the option to reassign "Option To Purchase", lesser deferred, etc. All these are good proactive measures by the developers to curb speculators.

A queue forming for a project is not a big cause for concern. During the last bubble, many projects had long queues.

I don't think so fast... property cycle typically last 5 to 7 years. Now we are entering into the 3rd year.

but trying to predict when property market will crash is as hard as predicting when the stock market will crash...

for now, just make sure you buy with the power to hold... more developers are removing the option to reassign "Option To Purchase", lesser deferred, etc. All these are good proactive measures by the developers to curb speculators.

If the property cycle is 5 to 7 years (from bottom to bottom), then we should be on our way down soon. The URA report for Q1 '07 says this is the 12th straight quarter of rising prices.

However, prices have not risen all that much. We're at an index value of 136, where 1998=100. The peak in 1996 was 180. The slope of the increase in recent quarters is also pretty steady, not the steep rise seen in 1995. So far, it looks like a solid and well-founded increase in prices -- not a bubble.

Of course, prices at the top end of the market seem a little silly (e.g. The Orchard Residences at $4,000 psf.). But then, the rich can afford to be stupid. :)

There are a few things to bear in mind.

1. The URA data is a lagging indicator however i do agree with what darock has pointed out.

2. The picture we saw is a leading indicator. Yes, this maybe project specific but till we know the profile of these people, their reasons for buying a unit or a few units in this project, we should exercise some caution at this point of time.

Don't over gear guys.

Of course, prices at the top end of the market seem a little silly (e.g. The Orchard Residences at $4,000 psf.). But then, the rich can afford to be stupid. :)

Well said darock! They can indeed. Thanks to them, those vested are enjoy the fruits of their labour. When these people become rich themselves, maybe they can afford to be stupid too! The vicious cycle continues .. or should i say the multiplier effect continues. :)

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2007/pr07-32a.pdf

Here's the URA graph. I don't know whether the index is controlled for inflation (probably not). The graph shows that property prices have increased 36% since 1998. Income per capita has grown by about the same amount 21k to about 29k). So property prices are not out of line with GDP increase. Not yet a bubble.

just want to qualify this as an "Asia Tiger" era. The macro fundamentals have changed in the 1990s. Now, Asia is enjoying prominence among global investors. So, I still personally am quite bullish on property in emerging markets like Asia ex Japan....

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2007/pr07-32a.pdf

Here's the URA graph. I don't know whether the index is controlled for inflation (probably not). The graph shows that property prices have increased 36% since 1998. Income per capita has grown by about the same amount 21k to about 29k). So property prices are not out of line with GDP increase. Not yet a bubble.

good assessment.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=452762&page=3

Seeing this scares me a little actually. Reminds me of the time before the 97 crash.

I wouldn't be too worried about the queue at Meyer. This is only an indication that this project has been under-priced. A 4 or 5% increase in launch prices will quickly get rid of the queue.

I wouldn't be too worried about the queue at Meyer. This is only an indication that this project has been under-priced. A 4 or 5% increase in launch prices will quickly get rid of the queue.

5% to get rid of queue.
Another 5% to get rid of extra cheques.

Hey !

Actually if we take darock analysis a bit further and segment the increase ...

Ultra rich people how much their wealth has grown .. vs super high end pty
The just rich ... how much their wealth has grown .. vs high end pty

The technicians how much their salary has grown .. vs HDB prices ...

Then it will all make sense ... a lot of sense ...

YFG ... ...

Hey !

Actually if we take darock analysis a bit further and segment the increase ...

Ultra rich people how much their wealth has grown .. vs super high end pty
The just rich ... how much their wealth has grown .. vs high end pty

The technicians how much their salary has grown .. vs HDB prices ...

Then it will all make sense ... a lot of sense ...

YFG ... ...

I wonder if such statistics are transparent and available.

Definition:
Ultra rich (NW: >50mil)
Super rich (NW:50>10mil)
Mass rich(NW:10>1mil)

Agreeable?

I'm trying to form a framework for this investigation.

I haven't been able to sit down to examine the data more carefully yet. While you may be right that the overall increase of 31% in prices matches income growth, the question is whether the property price increases are focused in particular districts whereas income growth is more widely distributed across the city/country. If that's the case we may have a bubble in D9, 10 and 11 in particular, and perhaps in the Marina Bay area.

My earlier comment on the likelihood of a (minor) bubble is driven by two hypothesis - both of which may well be very wrong. They are:

a) That short term price growth 13% last year is higher than GDP growth.. it is a marked sudden increase that does not seem to be based on a rapid change in fundamentals. Actually, the US, Chinese and Indian economies are all showing signs of slowing growth.

b) The introduction of deferred payment schemes and foreign ownership allowance may be driving short term speculation, which we won't know for sure until TOP in 2009-10 for current projects.

I haven't been able to sit down to examine the data more carefully yet. While you may be right that the overall increase of 31% in prices matches income growth, the question is whether the property price increases are focused in particular districts whereas income growth is more widely distributed across the city/country. If that's the case we may have a bubble in D9, 10 and 11 in particular, and perhaps in the Marina Bay area.

My earlier comment on the likelihood of a (minor) bubble is driven by two hypothesis - both of which may well be very wrong. They are:

a) That short term price growth 13% last year is higher than GDP growth.. it is a marked sudden increase that does not seem to be based on a rapid change in fundamentals. Actually, the US, Chinese and Indian economies are all showing signs of slowing growth.

b) The introduction of deferred payment schemes and foreign ownership allowance may be driving short term speculation, which we won't know for sure until TOP in 2009-10 for current projects.


I just want to qualify all of this from an official study by UBS by a seasoned property analyst released on 29 Mar 07.... Property prices are lagging behind GDP *still* as of 1Q2007. and, yes, the areas with the highest registered subsales activities?? Marina Bay and Sentosa.

PS: always prefer to balanced up my own point of view with relevant industry report.

Your point is well taken. Could you provide a link to the report whenever you have a chance? These are always good to read.

IMHO.. seasoned analysts will never predict a bubble is forming. Which speculative disaster can you remember anyone predicting.. the experts are always from banks that are themselves invested or have clients invested and will almost never provide objective analyses.. flashback to 1998... and the most recent American crisis in subprime loans...

Just check with my Property Lawyer regarding Capital Gain Tax on Property.

There is no more Capital Gain Tax on Property...... but.....

If you sell 1 to 2 property within a 12 month period there is no tax. If you sold 3 property within 12 months the 3rd property onward will be tax. Your profit on the third property will be put under your personal income tax.

Hope the infomation help. But if I am you I will do a check to verify my finding.

Bubble is forming at the super high end condo, but not on the mass market.

I just bought a Penthouse unit near Downtown East Pasir Ris at a price of $310 psf. That is a price you find back in 2003. There cannot be bubble if the price did not go up, but the upside of this type of property look good; at least it look good to me.

Bubble is forming at the super high end condo, but not on the mass market.

I just bought a Penthouse unit near Downtown East Pasir Ris at a price of $310 psf. That is a price you find back in 2003. There cannot be bubble if the price did not go up, but the upside of this type of property look good; at least it look good to me.

Hi shctaw,

What's your definition of super high end condo?

Bubble is forming at the super high end condo, but not on the mass market.

I just bought a Penthouse unit near Downtown East Pasir Ris at a price of $310 psf. That is a price you find back in 2003. There cannot be bubble if the price did not go up, but the upside of this type of property look good; at least it look good to me.

schtaw... if the bubble burst in the "super high end condo", I can tell you for sure, everyone will be affected. everyone including mass market projects, regardless if mass market has moved up or not. why? cos property purchase is one of the most sentimentally motivated process.

the key here is to make sure speculations are controlled such that prices do not overrun. Cos, whether you like it or not, it is the high end condos that are pushing up the mass market... like a sea wave. the trough follows the crest.

I just want to qualify all of this from an official study by UBS by a seasoned property analyst released on 29 Mar 07.... Property prices are lagging behind GDP *still* as of 1Q2007. and, yes, the areas with the highest registered subsales activities?? Marina Bay and Sentosa.


I looked at GDP growth (historical and prospective) when I made my decision to go for it in 1995. Also employment figures, wages, currency etc.
But I don't believe in UBS report. It's obvious that private property has gone up much more than GDP recently. Just look at the latest prices. Luxury has gone from 1500psf to 3k.
So there is a part link. Investors look at economic growth, then the property market gets its own momentum.

Regarding income, I was shocked to see, at least for HK, the wage figures for the past 10 years for HK. Overall was down by something like 20%, low income by 40%, with even top 10% down a few percent. However recent figures have been more positive, so many are predicting a reasonable rise in HK property this year. This is probably reflected in property as well, with top end higher than 1997 (inflation ?) but mass market in many cases still much lower than 1997.
Re Singapore, guess income has done well recently, but again would be surprised if they have matched the income for private property (tho mass market is probably following this OK). Again, I think income like GDP is a leading indicator to spark a rise in property, but again property gains momentum buy itself.

Hi shctaw,

What's your definition of super high end condo?

Orchard Turn will be one of the super hi end in my opinion.

Mia Shanley
Reuters Singapore
10 April 2007

Singapore's economy grew an annualised 7.2% in the first quarter, slowing from the fourth quarter rate but exceeding forecasts, while the country's central bank stuck to a policy of modest currency appreciation.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) reiterated its expectations for growth of between 4.5 to 6.5% this year and said the external environment would remain broadly supportive of sustained growth.

But it said a number of risk factors had emerged.

"US economic growth has lost some momentum, led by the correction in its housing sector, and the problems in the subprime mortgage market may yet lead to some retraction in consumer spending," the MAS said in its twice-yearly statement."

It added that the global IT industry remained weak on a build-up of inventories and strong competitive price pressures.

The MAS also held on to its forecast for inflation of 0.5 to 1.5% in 2007, even though analysts say inflationary risks are on the rise due to higher asset prices and a planned increase in the goods and services tax from July 1.

The Singapore dollar, which has been trading at a near-decade high, drew further support from the news, rising as far as 1.5115 per U.S. dollar.

The central bank, which conducts policy through the Singapore dollar rather than through interest rates, said conditions in the IT industry would likely remain sluggish till later in the year, but added that the economy would be supported by growth in services.

"This suggests some decoupling from the U.S. slowdown," said Chua Hak Bin, an economist at Citigroup, who expects GDP to land at the top end of the government's forecast range.

The first-quarter expansion compared with 4.9% growth forecast by economists in a Reuters poll and followed a 7.9% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2006, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in its advance estimate for the quarter.

Analysts expect the island will draw support from new areas such as financial services, tourism and a fast-recovering construction sector thanks to major projects such as two multi-billion dollar casinos.

From a year ago, gross domestic product was 6.0% bigger in the first quarter, above expectations for 5.4% growth.

The advance estimate, based largely on data from January and February, gives an early indication of the economy's performance in the January-March period.

Economists said unexpectedly strong growth in the construction sector, which expanded by 7.0% in the first quarter, helped offset slower manufacturing output.

Singapore is seeing a flurry of projects in both the public and private sector as residential property prices pick up and as work started on one of two planned casinos.

Well there you have it...
Better be kiasi get your property!




Property sector doing well across all sectors, foreign demand strong: Mah
By Frederick Lim, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 10 April 2007 1740 hrs



The Singapore property market has been performing well on a broad front across all sectors over the last two years to three years.

And according to National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan, a good part of it is due to strong foreign investment in Singapore's real estate.

Speaking at the Cityscape Asia property exhibition, he cited private sector figures which showed that Singapore's property market attracted a five-fold increase in foreign investment to S$5.4 billion last year, compared with 2004.

The Minister also said that the government is furthering its efforts to make Singapore more vibrant and exciting to attract even more overseas real estate investors.

Figures showed Singapore's property market is on the roll.

In the office sector, demand for space hit a six-year high in 2006.

Demand for shop space last year also grew by the highest annual increase since 1993.

And in the private housing market, a total of 10,300 uncompleted residential units were sold by developers in 2006 - a historical high surpassing the previous record of 9,800 set in 1994.

Of these, a quarter was bought by foreigners, including permanent residents.

And, foreign companies poured S$5.4 billion into Singapore's real estate market last year compared to just S$900 million in 2004.

National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said: "More than just a good place to do business, I believe the other reason why we have been successful in attracting investments is that Singapore is, I submit, a great place to live in. We welcome people from different cultures, we offer a good quality living environment."

Mr Mah said that the government would continue to make Singapore's cityscape more beautiful and exciting so as to attract even more overseas property investors.

Singapore's city planner, the Urban Redevelopment Authority, says it is approaching this on two fronts.

URA's Chief Executive, Cheong Koon Hean, said: "What we now need to do is to add the vibrancy, give more variety. And I think we have to leverage on our strengths. Two things we need to capitalise on. The fact that we are an island, so we capitalise on water - the use of the water. And let water bring value and enhancement to the city. The second thing is our tropical-ness. Because our weather plants grow very well, we are already a garden city. But we can do better to make ourselves a city in a garden."

The URA has been releasing more land sites in the city to cater for greater demand for office, hotel, residential and mixed development use.

And these will be targeted at transforming the city into a better work-live-play environment. - CNA

I wonder if such statistics are transparent and available.

Definition:
Ultra rich (NW: >50mil)
Super rich (NW:50>10mil)
Mass rich(NW:10>1mil)

Agreeable?

I'm trying to form a framework for this investigation.

SI: Since you have defined this, you need to disclose your interests and state which one you belong to !!

Also, what about the 'technicians'. R they just poor ??
Seriously, normally I believe private bankers just label HNW and UHNW. UHNW is USD30+m, and HNW is USD1+m (in disposable assets ie not including own home). So third category should be just middle class (ie probably USD100k+ in investment).

Since you are about to disclose which category you belong to, I'll state mine. I have no private banker (yet) !!

[quote=landluv;12528163]I just want to qualify all of this from an official study by UBS by a seasoned property analyst released on 29 Mar 07.... Property prices are lagging behind GDP *still* as of 1Q2007. and, yes, the areas with the highest registered subsales activities?? Marina Bay and Sentosa.
quote]

I wouldn't trust UBS on property. They're always calling it up in HK !!

Re: I think this thread is pointless. You can never really predict when a bubble will go burst - look at the UK luxury end. Most property markets don't burst, they just stagnate (except Asia). When it bursts, it is a dilemma. In HK in 1996, prices had run up a lot, possibly doubled in a few years. If you exited in early 1996 and stayed out, that would've been bad timing as you probably can't go in now. And in 1996, prices then rose another 50% in 6 months. That is the window, a tight window. Of course, everyone knew it was Thailand that triggered it right ? And everyone knew that Thailand was bad before it went bust right ?? And that Indonesia, Korea, Singapore, HK etc would follow and prices would be off xxx % right ??
I think you exit when you feel it is right. Then it may be lonely for a while before you can find out if you are right ... or it just keeps rising another 50% !!

[quote=landluv;12528163]I just want to qualify all of this from an official study by UBS by a seasoned property analyst released on 29 Mar 07.... Property prices are lagging behind GDP *still* as of 1Q2007. and, yes, the areas with the highest registered subsales activities?? Marina Bay and Sentosa.
quote]

I wouldn't trust UBS on property. They're always calling it up in HK !!

Re: I think this thread is pointless. You can never really predict when a bubble will go burst - look at the UK luxury end. Most property markets don't burst, they just stagnate (except Asia). When it bursts, it is a dilemma. In HK in 1996, prices had run up a lot, possibly doubled in a few years. If you exited in early 1996 and stayed out, that would've been bad timing as you probably can't go in now. And in 1996, prices then rose another 50% in 6 months. That is the window, a tight window. Of course, everyone knew it was Thailand that triggered it right ? And everyone knew that Thailand was bad before it went bust right ?? And that Indonesia, Korea, Singapore, HK etc would follow and prices would be off xxx % right ??
I think you exit when you feel it is right. Then it may be lonely for a while before you can find out if you are right ... or it just keeps rising another 50% !!

well, yes reports are not 100% accurate... if they are, analyst would be one of the richest people on earth. :) but, if the research is pure factual with no conclusion (property prices is lagging behind GDP index is factual rather than a conclusion), we can count a bit on that.

of course, as in any business world, take all facts with a pinch of salt. yeah?

Cheers.

landluv: Agreed.
However, they are much better than property agents forecasts !!! And of course, developers won't say anything apart from the positive.

I think most analyst only say something when a trend is clearly in a certain direction. Of course, some others may say something like 'burst' but again its to attract publicity !!
I don't think I ever remember a headline by an analyst that made me buy/sell anything !!

Just check with my Property Lawyer regarding Capital Gain Tax on Property.

There is no more Capital Gain Tax on Property...... but.....

If you sell 1 to 2 property within a 12 month period there is no tax. If you sold 3 property within 12 months the 3rd property onward will be tax. Your profit on the third property will be put under your personal income tax.

Hope the infomation help. But if I am you I will do a check to verify my finding.


schtaw

Questions ....
1. What is this 12 months period?
YoA (Year of Assessment) or 12 months from the 1st property?
2. Does it mean that buying a penthouse or more-expensive unit is better than buying multiple units?

Thanks.

wow.... if someone bought 10 properties over the last 10 years and decides to sell all 10 this year, does this mean that the gains will taxed? doesn't make sense.

Sources say developer Hoi Hup achieves price of about $2,500 psf
Kalpana Rashiwala
11 April 2007

Hoi Hup Realty was supposed to begin previews for its freehold Suites @ Cairnhill on the former Cairnhill Gardens site about a fortnight ago.

But just a day before it could do that, it found a buyer for all 48 apartments in the project in a deal worth about $200 million, BT understands. This would work out to around $2,500 psf for the 19-storey development.

Sources said the buyer is a party linked to Thai Beverage tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi. Mr Charoen controls the TCC group in Thailand, and is also one of the country's richest businessmen.

Interestingly, the $2,500 psf achieved for the sale to a single buyer was the same average price that Hoi Hup is said to have been targeting for the preview.

'What's more, the buyer will be paying Hoi Hup on normal progress payment terms, not deferred payment! That's great for Hoi Hup,' said a fellow developer.

Sources also said that City Development's recent preview of its 59-unit Solitaire project in the Balmoral Park area drew a Chinese buyer, who snapped up 10 units - or almost an entire block - for over $52 million.

CityDev last week announced that the project was sold within a week at an average price of over $2,000 psf.

Over at Reflections at Keppel Bay, Keppel Land said on Monday it had been approached by foreign investors interested in buying entire blocks in the 1,129 unit development. So far, it has achieved an average price of about $1,900 psf.

A seasoned property consultant said: 'It just reflects the current state of the high-end residential market - that foreign investors still consider our market attractive, despite the run-up in prices.'

'The money for bulk purchases is coming in substantially from the region, like Hong Kong and Indonesia, but there's also institutional money from US, Europe and Australia,' he added.

While foreign funds and investors buying up stacks or blocks of apartments in Singapore is not a new phenomenon, their bargaining strength against developers has waned lately and they have had to dilute the profile of properties they are choosing. This is because the market is flush with overseas money chasing a limited pool of properties available for sale.

'A few years ago, these overseas investors would have extracted a bulk discount from the developer and would buy only completed projects (preferably with leased apartments) that can start generating rental income almost immediately upon purchase. 'These days, however, they're finding they can't expect a discount and are looking at projects under construction. Another difference is these foreign funds are more flexible now and are prepared to consider not-so-prime locations. In the past, they focused only on the choicest areas,' the seasoned property consultant said.

Hoi Hup will develop Suites @ Cairnhill on the 25,083 sq ft Cairnhill Gardens site that it bought last year for $52.38 million. This works out to $795 psf of potential gross floor area inclusive of development charges. Market watchers reckoned Hoi Hup's break even cost for the project could be of the order of $1,100 to $1,200 psf.

Last year, Mr Charoen's unit Pacific Coast Assets inked deals that gave it full ownership of Intercontinental Hotel at Bugis Junction. The deals valued the underlying hotel property at over $250 million, according to earlier media reports.

His TCC group has a joint venture with Singapore's CapitaLand Group to invest in, develop and manage properties in Thailand.

schtaw

Questions ....
1. What is this 12 months period?
YoA (Year of Assessment) or 12 months from the 1st property?
2. Does it mean that buying a penthouse or more-expensive unit is better than buying multiple units?

Thanks.


My lawyer told me just start counting from the date your complete the sales of you property.

example, you sell in April 2007, completion 10 weeks in June 2007. 12 months will start from June 2007 to June 2008. You are allow to sell 2 property within the next 12 weeks. Third property ^^ "MAYBE " ^^ consider as a profit rather than capital gain.

Like I says, I only know 1 lawyer and he may not be correct.:ohno:

Enbloc will be consider as a sale of property too.:nuts:

My lawyer just told me over the phone that this rule is a "GREY area" as IRAS cannot even have a firm stand on this issue.

He now comment that property you bought more than 3 years will not apply to this rulling, but it is not in black and white. IRAS do not want to put it down in rules to frighten away foreign investors who buy in blocks. The rules will be apply on case by case basis.

This topic is quite relevant to the government stand in property market, Singapore want property boom without bubble using grey ruling to control the speculators and flippers.

There you go...
The Thais are coming...
Later kenna RICE ban.:lol:




Sources say developer Hoi Hup achieves price of about $2,500 psf
Kalpana Rashiwala
11 April 2007

Hoi Hup Realty was supposed to begin previews for its freehold Suites @ Cairnhill on the former Cairnhill Gardens site about a fortnight ago.

But just a day before it could do that, it found a buyer for all 48 apartments in the project in a deal worth about $200 million, BT understands. This would work out to around $2,500 psf for the 19-storey development.

Sources said the buyer is a party linked to Thai Beverage tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi. Mr Charoen controls the TCC group in Thailand, and is also one of the country's richest businessmen.

Interestingly, the $2,500 psf achieved for the sale to a single buyer was the same average price that Hoi Hup is said to have been targeting for the preview.

'What's more, the buyer will be paying Hoi Hup on normal progress payment terms, not deferred payment! That's great for Hoi Hup,' said a fellow developer.

Sources also said that City Development's recent preview of its 59-unit Solitaire project in the Balmoral Park area drew a Chinese buyer, who snapped up 10 units - or almost an entire block - for over $52 million.

CityDev last week announced that the project was sold within a week at an average price of over $2,000 psf.

Over at Reflections at Keppel Bay, Keppel Land said on Monday it had been approached by foreign investors interested in buying entire blocks in the 1,129 unit development. So far, it has achieved an average price of about $1,900 psf.

A seasoned property consultant said: 'It just reflects the current state of the high-end residential market - that foreign investors still consider our market attractive, despite the run-up in prices.'

'The money for bulk purchases is coming in substantially from the region, like Hong Kong and Indonesia, but there's also institutional money from US, Europe and Australia,' he added.

While foreign funds and investors buying up stacks or blocks of apartments in Singapore is not a new phenomenon, their bargaining strength against developers has waned lately and they have had to dilute the profile of properties they are choosing. This is because the market is flush with overseas money chasing a limited pool of properties available for sale.

'A few years ago, these overseas investors would have extracted a bulk discount from the developer and would buy only completed projects (preferably with leased apartments) that can start generating rental income almost immediately upon purchase. 'These days, however, they're finding they can't expect a discount and are looking at projects under construction. Another difference is these foreign funds are more flexible now and are prepared to consider not-so-prime locations. In the past, they focused only on the choicest areas,' the seasoned property consultant said.

Hoi Hup will develop Suites @ Cairnhill on the 25,083 sq ft Cairnhill Gardens site that it bought last year for $52.38 million. This works out to $795 psf of potential gross floor area inclusive of development charges. Market watchers reckoned Hoi Hup's break even cost for the project could be of the order of $1,100 to $1,200 psf.

Last year, Mr Charoen's unit Pacific Coast Assets inked deals that gave it full ownership of Intercontinental Hotel at Bugis Junction. The deals valued the underlying hotel property at over $250 million, according to earlier media reports.

His TCC group has a joint venture with Singapore's CapitaLand Group to invest in, develop and manage properties in Thailand.

My lawyer just told me over the phone that this rule is a "GREY area" as IRAS cannot even have a firm stand on this issue.

He now comment that property you bought more than 3 years will not apply to this rulling, but it is not in black and white. IRAS do not want to put it down in rules to frighten away foreign investors who buy in blocks. The rules will be apply on case by case basis.

This topic is quite relevant to the government stand in property market, Singapore want property boom without bubble using grey ruling to control the speculators and flippers.



Thanks.
Case by case? Like that very difficult to gauge.

Very interesting analysis of a property clash. I have been monitoring Singapore Property for since 1998 and some of my thought is similiar to what Aaron Edin wrote. Note: Analysis base in USA market. Read with caution.

January 16, 2007
Bring on the Housing Crash?
That's what Aaron Edlin says in the latest Economist' Voice:

Housing Collapse? Bring It On!, by Aaron S. Edlin, Economists' Voice: Dean Baker, Robert Shiller and others have warned of a collapse of housing prices for years. And, for years, homeowners I know have worried when they will get their comeuppance. Finally, housing prices are teetering or outright falling, and renters are gloating.

Should you worry if you own a home? I’m not.

It is easy to think that falling home prices will hurt those who own homes and benefit those who rent but would like to own. Surprisingly, though, many homeowners will actually become better off if their homes’ value plummets. How can this be? ...

Those Moving to the Big City Can Benefit

For years, I have watched people who contemplate moving from some small low-priced Midwestern town to the San Francisco Bay Area. Each year, this move has gotten more expensive for such folk. One reason is that housing prices have increased faster in the Bay Area than in much of the Midwest, but even if they had increased at the same percentage rate, the move would have become more difficult year by year.

Consider for example a family that owns a $500,000 house in the Midwest who comes to San Francisco and buys a $1,000,000 house... The family must cough up an extra $500,000.

Suppose that housing prices rise by 50% in both locales. Now, the small San Francisco house costs $1,500,000 and the Midwestern house costs $750,000. It costs an extra $750,000 to make the move after the general appreciation. ...

If prices now fall by 33% in both locales, the prices will become $1,000,000 and $500,000 again. The difference in price will fall by 33% to $500,000. That will be a boon for those moving to a high-priced area. They will benefit doubly if prices fall faster in high priced areas, as they may well do.

The basic rule, then, is that those moving to higher-priced areas stand to benefit from general falls in prices.

Growing Families, Up-and-Comers, and Those Planning to Remodel Benefit as Well

Consider, likewise, families that are growing and want a bigger house or up-and-comers who want a bigger, better house in the same region.

These families may be able to meet their goals easier if prices collapse. Consider a family that lives in a $750,000 house and is drooling over a $1,500,000 one next door. With a price difference of $750,000, it may be out of reach.

Suppose, though, that prices fall by 33% across the board. Then the houses will be worth $500,000 and $1,000,000. This family will “only” need $500,000, instead of $750,000, to buy the bigger, better house.

Admittedly a down payment, and not the price difference of monthly payments, could be what stands between them and happiness. A price drop could wipe out their home equity and with it their down payment, so that they ... will still be drooling... However, the family may not be hurt at all if the consequence is that as before they stay where they are and pay the same mortgage rate.

If the family can manage a down payment on a larger house, though, they will find monthly payments on the big house more manageable after a housing collapse than they would have been before it...

Others who will benefit are those planning to build an addition to their home. If housing prices collapse, they will likely find that contractors start to return their phone calls and cease bidding stratospheric amounts for remodels and additions.

The Value of Options

An option is nothing other than a choice, and it is axiomatic that having a choice is better than not having one. Let’s suppose that the reason you live in your existing home is that it is the best choice for you given your existing options. ...

Now if there is a dramatic change in the price pattern of homes, whether by and large upward or by and large downward, you will have many options to move that look very different than they did before. ...[B]ecause of the changing pricing pattern the relative attractiveness of other homes will likely vary from what it was before and some may now be more attractive given their new price than your existing home.

For this reason, a dramatic shake-up in prices—again, whether up or down—has a strong potential to create valuable options where there were no more valuable choices before. ... And, just as a “financial” option to buy a share of stock will be more valuable if the stock price has more volatility (randomness), the value of the homeownership option increases if a major shake-up is imminent.

The Economy

So far, I have neglected the effects on the economy of a housing collapse. The conventional wisdom ... is that if housing prices collapse, the economy may go with it. One reason is that personal consumption falls as people perceive themselves as poorer. Now, the above arguments may lead you to question whether housing price falls really make people poorer. ... However, it is undoubtedly true that a housing collapse will cause many to lose their jobs (at the least, those in the construction sector) and this is, of course, a worry.

Concluding Comments

Many homeowners are jittery about prices falling. And some may have good reason. Empty nesters looking for a smaller house, particularly if they hope to move to an exclusive Miami address, may be pinched. And those whose jobs are threatened, particularly those in the construction sector, should worry.

But those who hope to move to a bigger house or to a more affluent community could benefit a great deal from prices falling.

In my case, we are expecting another baby later this month and need more room. So to the gods of housing prices, I say: bring on the collapse.

Hi all,

need some kind advice from the forumers.

I am looking for a place for own occupation near to Harbourfront and find that the prices are getting ridiculously high at this point.

Do you think I should wait and buy 12 months' time ? That is roughly the longest I can afford to wait.

Hi all,

need some kind advice from the forumers.

I am looking for a place for own occupation near to Harbourfront and find that the prices are getting ridiculously high at this point.

Do you think I should wait and buy 12 months' time ? That is roughly the longest I can afford to wait.

Umm. This is the million dollar question....
I take it you are planning to buy, not rent. And that it sounds like you are a first time buyer.

This is something to all first-timers, and also for those who are just getting more exposure into property. Remember, a home is one of the most important decisions you make in your life (sorry if I sound patronising'). And you already feel prices are high.

And it really depends on your own financial situation. How much money can you have (for downpayment, your own salary, career prospects, 'parental support' even etc).
It also depends on where you buy and how much you pay. You look like you are going for a good property, but can you really support it? Or should you consider a good value property elsewhere ??)

In a few property cycles, often first timers jump in as they fear high prices will go even higher, and become even more un-affordable. Or people upgrade then. And often with bad results as they tend to go in late in the cycle.

However, you are also setting yourself a 12 month target. If you look at that time horizon, probably most forumers say property will rise, and I would agree. But remember again, property is the biggest investment you make, so think carefully !!!

Hi all,

need some kind advice from the forumers.

I am looking for a place for own occupation near to Harbourfront and find that the prices are getting ridiculously high at this point.

Do you think I should wait and buy 12 months' time ? That is roughly the longest I can afford to wait.

If you find prices at Caribbean is high, consider somewhere more inland like Pearl@Mt Faber where prices are lower. And if I am not wrong, Pearl is FH.

Nothing else around that area that is relatively new and cheaper than Caribbean. imho.

Hi Sarah,

Your way of thinking is wrong ... cant get anywhere ...

Follow these steps :

1) Decide how much you can afford for your new home ...
2) Based on 1), get a few agents who specialises in various areas to give you a list of properties within that budget
3) Based on the result if 2, rank the areas you like and start with those high on the list
4) Based on 3), rank again those based on age, promixity to MRt, blah blah blah, the criteria u weight as most impt ...

Remember that though location is very important ... it is the INSIDE of the house that you live with most of the time ... and it is the INSIDE that u can change dramatically (except u cant knock down the columns or your neighbour's wall) ...

YFG ... ...

I am looking near that area because my parents live there and at their age, they are unlikely to move again.

I am prepared to hold the property for many years, since it is for own use.

However, I am wondering if I should buy now or wait for a market correction later this year or maybe early next year. The asking price has gone up 20% to 30% over the past months.

And these two days, the news that some govt measures may be introduced to stop deferred payment scheme.
Would this then bring down the asking prices of sellers of completed properties ?

What are your views ?

No one can predict a house price correction, esp if you are talking months.
I remember at one stage in the UK (around 1989), the govt was going to introduce some tax (minor) changes. What happened was that people rushed in beforehand and pushed up prices even further. Then it dropped.
Likewise, I'd imagine there that there could be a rush for DPS before it closes. Regarding corrections, the latest UK bull run, I've been waiting for a UK correction since 1998/9...
This may or may not be like in HK in 1996. Then if you had to go in, go in early, as prices zipped up another 50% in 6 months before it crashed (slowly ... many were sucked in by the dead cat bounces). Those who waited 6 more months (mid 1997) were hammered and will not play the property market game again. If you bought at the end of 1996, many have now recovered their position and maybe some gain. But would it have been better to have not gone in ??
There is no one single answer.. just look at your own affordability and situation.

Don't forget in 1996, HK had lots of social, political, and economic uncertainty before the '97 handover.

Singapore also had a lot of economic uncertainty in the late '90s.

Today in 2007, the future is a lot more certain, although not necessarily very pleasant (for lots of Singaporeans).

All those things have tremendous effect on the property market.

My opinion is, buy now while it is still cheap. On the other hand, also depends on the macro and micro factors regarding your specific property. Some may not do as well as others.

If you really must live in Harbourfront area, look at those on Lower Delta Road, around Bukit Purmei area and Mt Faber area. But act fast cos prices have been rising a lot in the last 2 months in this area.

For other mass market condo , Govt already announced that they will pump $$$ to develop Jurong East, Woodlands, and Paya Lebar as regional civic, commercial , and recreational hubs. That should give you a hint already. Other areas which I think got potential are Clementi, West Coast and Pasir Panjang, and Upper East Coast (Tanah Merah), and also Balestier-Boon Keng-Potong Pasir area.

For those i am not so sure about: Upper Bukit Timah/ Bukit Batok, looks like not very popular among buyers. Developers still have to give away free car to entice people to buy.

The inland part of East Coast like Joo Chiat, Siglap, Kembangan and Chai Chee, I also not very sure. Mostly small developments that have neither exclusivity (because of low entry $$ barrier) nor facilities.

I am looking near that area because my parents live there and at their age, they are unlikely to move again.

I am prepared to hold the property for many years, since it is for own use.

However, I am wondering if I should buy now or wait for a market correction later this year or maybe early next year. The asking price has gone up 20% to 30% over the past months.

And these two days, the news that some govt measures may be introduced to stop deferred payment scheme.
Would this then bring down the asking prices of sellers of completed properties ?

What are your views ?

I believe the DPS announcement is a warning by the government not to let DPS feed up the speculation rate and in turn "forces" the govt to introduce antispeculative measures. This is a good time to announce such things. Like a market correction. You need small bumps along the way to prevent a huge crash.

But, waiting for the property market to crash is like waiting for the stock market to crash. It may happen. It may not. But, one thing is for certain, Singapore is now the attraction of global foreign investors. Any bankers/economists will tell you Asia is the next engine of global economic growth and Singapore is attractive as a hub in the SEA/Asia(ex Japan) region due to its manpower talent, infrastructure and competent governance.

For me, if I am to buy to stay, I would buy a property now. Within my investment comfort. Waiting for a correction that may never come soon is going to give you more angst when the market goes up and up.

I am also waiting for correction... but after you hear all the inside news on huge property funds/block buying of developments etc, you can't help but feel things are different today than in 97.

just my 2 cents.

If the current price is within your means, you can consider buying now. I am sure many has been waiting for the correction but you only see prices going higher and higher.

Don't think garment will take any action on DPS in the meantime unless there are more signs of speculation in the market. :lol:

I am looking near that area because my parents live there and at their age, they are unlikely to move again.

I am prepared to hold the property for many years, since it is for own use.

However, I am wondering if I should buy now or wait for a market correction later this year or maybe early next year. The asking price has gone up 20% to 30% over the past months.

And these two days, the news that some govt measures may be introduced to stop deferred payment scheme.
Would this then bring down the asking prices of sellers of completed properties ?

What are your views ?

Hi Sarah168...
Think CTV brought up a very good point about the possibility that people may rush in to buy instead when they anticipate a change in DPS policy. IMO, if gahmen says they are looking into introducing risks/measures…it’s likely they’ll do it.
Any changes in DPS rule will directly affect the new projects first, before the completed ones. That’s when price consolidation can happen; it will become clearer if the uptrend is to stay, with lesser speculators. In that case, IMO, I think it’s perhaps better if you wait… because Harbourfront’s location is highly speculative and by now, the completed projects have been adjusted upwards based on the new benchmark price of Reflections.
However, as the rest have suggested, you should look at the prices now and decide if it's within your budget. Personally, think you can consider Pasir Panjang, it's got potentials. Do some calculations...if you buy now and then prices adjust downwards, what’s the calculated risks? Prepare yourself for it...
If you decide to wait and prices continue to increase by 20% by year end, will you end up not being able to afford a place and be left stranded? At which price would you tell yourself to stop waiting and get into the market since you need a place to stay? If by then you're unable to afford your preferred location, what would be the likely prices of alternative locations?

Work on these scenarios, it should help… :cheers:

ATM and at least for this year,herd mentality is kiasi buying.
If you wait for crash to buy you gotta wait for a while more.
I have gone from boom to bust and boom cycle previously.Bust cycle would be another few years time.Go plot your graph and look.

My business friend told me there is a surge of Private bankers coming here from all over the world.

Last check with Citigroup alone have a shortage of 400 private bankers. ( They have bring in 500 private bankers from Hong Kong)

Few things come to my mind.

1. Singapore will have a shortage of good location property for those bankers to rent.
2. Bankers will be around looking for property to buy rather to rent. (as good rental property is hard to find due to enbloc and surge in foreign talents.)

Property market always perform to the exteme, in 2003 property investment is not in anyone mind, and now everyone is trying to jump in.:)

My business friend told me there is a surge of Private bankers coming here from all over the world.



Hey! This I heard too, buy I"ve yet to verify. However we still need to be aware of what implications changes in the DPS rule can bring.

Private bankers coming here from HK ?

Got meh ? Why cant they stay in HK and do their work ?

Is it because rental here is still cheaper than HK ?

Or the air here better than HK ? ---> This I can verify ... haha

YFG ... ...

No lah, more like moving the Private Bankers to HK. :lol:

Private bankers coming here from HK ?

Got meh ? Why cant they stay in HK and do their work ?

Is it because rental here is still cheaper than HK ?

Or the air here better than HK ? ---> This I can verify ... haha

YFG ... ...

Those bankers belong to the bank and were instructed to come here as there is a sudden surge of wealthy locals and surge in millionaire coming from oversea.

The number of millionaire coming is unclear but it is big enough to move our property market to new level. The number is hugh enough to make quite a few banks to act before those millionaire use their own private banker in their home country.

SCB just rent for a few storey of MBFC before it is even build.

The Pearl is a leasehold 99yr old.

Yes, there are many bankers coming to town lately. All my rental colleague so busy now and rental keeps going up.

West Coast has lots of good apartment and mostly are freehold. I went passed Varsity Park last night, the building is almost ready but is a leasehold.

Hi all,

need some kind advice from the forumers.

I am looking for a place for own occupation near to Harbourfront and find that the prices are getting ridiculously high at this point.

Do you think I should wait and buy 12 months' time ? That is roughly the longest I can afford to wait.

Do you mind older development? How about Teresa Ville? It's FH and < S$1 million for about 2000 sf (4 br). May need extensive reno which also means you can bargain down the price.

btw, it could be going for enbloc sale in a year's time? :dunno:

Are you from the banking industry?

Those bankers belong to the bank and were instructed to come here as there is a sudden surge of wealthy locals and surge in millionaire coming from oversea.

The number of millionaire coming is unclear but it is big enough to move our property market to new level. The number is hugh enough to make quite a few banks to act before those millionaire use their own private banker in their home country.

SCB just rent for a few storey of MBFC before it is even build.

From what I heard from property investor whom invest in 1992-93, every month the property price goes up, and sellers in secondary market hold on to buyers cheque and reject offers every now and then.

Chinese says "Hang High High To Sell."

I ever see property price when up 250% in 18 months period. (not Singapore property)

When market is optimistic, it will drive everyone crazy. Suddenly all sellers will feel buyers are at their mercy.

It is just part of the game, and it is also how bubble form.

Are you from the banking industry?

I use to work in OCBC for 8 years.:cheers: Just quit 2 years ago to start my investment. Infact I very kiasu :nuts: and kiasi :nuts: type also when I choose where to invest.

I was told by a private banker in Citigroup. He tell me not to sell anything in district 1 and 9. This is where most of them will be looking to buy or to rent.:)

Sooth sayers of property bubble caveat emptor!





Govt to further liberalise hiring of foreign construction workers
By Satish Cheney, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 15 April 2007 1728 hrs







SINGAPORE: Rules on hiring foreign construction workers may be further liberalised to meet rising demand.

This is according to National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan who was speaking at the sidelines of a welcoming event for foreigners residing in Tampines.

From the Integrated Resorts to projects at the Marina Bay area and residential developments islandwide, there is no doubt the construction industry is experiencing a boom.

And due to the rise in construction projects, developers are also facing a labour shortage.

Minister Mah said: "This boom in construction coincides with a worldwide boom in construction. In China, Beijing, they're building for the Olympics. In the Middle East, they're rapidly building their various cities. It's happening in Europe as well.

"Ministry of Manpower has revised its rules to free up some of the foreign worker policies as well as some of the supervisory manpower policies to allow more of such personnel to come and work in Singapore."

Mr Mah also expects wages to increase due to the tight labour market.

On the issue of the increasing cost of construction materials like sand and granite, he said prices would stabilise soon because these materials are already being imported from other countries besides Indonesia.

The materials will be used for current projects as well as for stockpiling purposes.

He said: "We're talking about reopening the quarry in Pulau Ubin, not so much to make up for the shortage because there is ample supply coming, but really to keep our options open and to help us learn and understand how to restart the quarry."

Mr Mah added that over time, if there is more than sufficient supplies coming in as expected, there would be no further expansion of granite mining at Pulau Ubin.




Its a BOOM...BOOM...BOOM decade.

Think...Think....Think....Buy..Must buy.....Quickly buy....

I was told by a private banker in Citigroup. He tell me not to sell anything in district 1 and 9. This is where most of them will be looking to buy or to rent.:)

I wonder if the private banker can pick the developments in those districts for us now. :) Think I'm asking for too much.

Not vested in those districts.

After messaging smallinvestor, he mention to me "the thing that happened in Thailand in 1990" that lead to economic crisis.

Those who forget the history(which usually repeat itself) are destine to fail.

Just a recap of what happen then;

DIARY OF A DISASTER
...how the crisis gathered momentum

1990: Liberalization and deregulation in the Asian Tiger economies open the gates to tides of short-term foreign investment (‘hot money’) which funds 85% of economic growth.

1990 to mid-1996: The East Asian economies become exemplars of the fast-track capitalism and export-led growth favoured by the World Bank and the IMF, with average annual growth rates of around 8%. Most foreign investment capital is funnelled into high-profit, short-term ventures.

December 1996: The IMF praises the Thai Government’s ‘consistent record for sound macro-economic management policies’.

July-1997: Thai property companies get into difficulties after a real-estate bubble bursts, wiping a third of the value off the stock market and leading to the collapse of the banks which backed them. Foreign investors lose confidence and start pulling out. The Thai currency’s peg to the dollar wobbles. Currency speculators move in for a killing. The Thai baht is floated and the currencies of the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and South Korea also suffer. A wave of devaluations follow, triggering a massive haemorrhage of funds as panicky foreign investors sell up their stocks and bonds. The economies of Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea and the Philippines go into free fall.

December 1997: By now millions are without work and decades of social and economic progress have been thrown into reverse. Of 282 firms on the Indonesian stock market only 22 are technically solvent.
January 1998: A $120 billion rescue plan, crafted by the IMF and the US Treasury, is set in motion in order to enable South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines to pay back the billions of dollars owed to US, European and Japanese banks and lure back foreign investors. In exchange the four countries have to restructure their economies, opening up their markets even further to foreign capital. Transnational corporations from the US, Europe and Japan buy Asian companies at rock-bottom prices.

April 1998: Japan slips into recession. A couple of months later the yen tumbles.

May 1998: Escalating pro-democracy protests and riots in Indonesia, fuelled by the economic crisis, oust the dictatorial President Suharto.

Mid 1998: 20,000 South Korean firms have gone bust since the crisis began. Jobless rates of 11% and 10% are predicted for Indonesia and South Korea. The Thai Government decides to expel up to one million migrant workers by the end of 1999, South Korea 146,000 and Malaysia 900,000.

July 1998: Other countries begin to feel the fallout. The devaluation of several Asian currencies, especially the yen, hits Brazil’s exports to Asia. Foreign investors are reluctant to put their money into any emerging economy. South Africa’s currency, the rand, plunges to an all-time low.

August 1998: Western manufacturers complain that undercutting by desperate Asian countries, notably South Korea, is causing job losses in the West.

Thank you Smallinvestor; if you did not mention Thailand 1990 I would have almost forget about it.

I would not think the same history will happened again, but it may return in other form. The type you least expected.

No harm reading history.:lol:

Whilst I agree that history inevitably repeats itself, I humbly submit that the Asian financial crisis and today present quite different secenarios for the following reasons:

1) Back then the weaker Asian economies like Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia were taken down by the fact that there were massive amounts of unhedged USD loans on local balance sheets. When currencies such as the Thai baht and IDR plunged, many Asian companies has their balance sheets wiped out.

2) Uncertainty over the extent of Bank NPLs also meant that bank lending tightened up overnight. With sharply depreciated asset values, many household also found themselves having negative equity.

3) The stronger economies like HK and Singapore became caught in a knock-on liquidity trap charcterised by a plunge in consumption and investment rates. Prior to the crisis, people typically spent more than their earned, after it they spend less than they earned.

Today the above situation does not really exist. Also risks and assets are (largely) no longer held by the same people as before having been variously packaged, repackaged and onsold.

There are a million and one things to worry about, inluding Asian financial crisis like secenarios (e.g. overnight capital flight following any number of catrostrophic events), but I think the biggest risk to be concerned with is anything that could knock US consumption off track. And, for various reasons, while a distinct possibility, is a risk I personally discount.

Citibank: Property Prices Will Rise By 30%
Daryl Loo
Channel NewsAsia
23 April 2007 2042 hrs

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/imagegallery/store/php1Duksw.jpg
Home prices in Singapore are expected to rise much more than those in Hong Kong, over the next two years, according to Citigroup.

Speaking at an Asia Pacific property conference in Singapore on Monday, Citigroup analysts say they see Singapore residential prices jumping by as much as 30% by 2008 compared to just 10% for Hong Kong.

Price tags for private homes in Singapore will be on the rise for at least the next two years, according to Citigroup.

It sees Singapore as being in the early stages of a cyclical upswing.

This is in contrast to Hong Kong, where the cycle is on the downtrend - and expected to end by 2009.

They say that Singapore prices are being driven by high occupancy rates, which have hit a record peak of 95.7%, and set to even climb higher over the next two years.

Wendy Koh, Director, Asia Pacific Equity Research, Citigroup, said: "If you look at the residential sector, occupancy rate right now is about 93.9% as at the end of 2006. If we take into account the completion this year which is only about 5,000 units, and last year's demand was about 9,000, and on annual basis the last 10-year average was about 8,000, occupancy rates should continue to rise.

"And if you take into account the 3,500 units that were sold en bloc last year, occupancy rate is actually closer to 95.5% last year. That is a record high as we have not seen that sort of levels before."

Citigroup expects occupancy to rise further to 96.8% this year, and 97.1% in 2008, as the level of demand far outstrips supply.

Over in the office sector, it is predicting rentals to rise 56% to $18.50 psf by the end of 2008, up from $11.80 currently.

And despite the recent run-up in property counters, Citigroup sees further upside in some choice picks.

Ms Koh said: "We like City Developments, Wing Tai, Allgreen. We also like Keppel Land for office play. For the first three stocks, it's more the residential exposure. If you look at City Dev and Wing Tai, they have been replenishing their land bank, and riding the upswing in the residential market."

Private home prices in Singapore rose 10.2% last year, and an estimated 4.6% in the first quarter of this year.

July-1997: Thai property companies get into difficulties after a real-estate bubble bursts, wiping a third of the value off the stock market and leading to the collapse of the banks which backed them. Foreign investors lose confidence and start pulling out. The Thai currency’s peg to the dollar wobbles. Currency speculators move in for a killing. The Thai baht is floated and the currencies of the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and South Korea also suffer. A wave of devaluations follow, triggering a massive haemorrhage of funds as panicky foreign investors sell up their stocks and bonds. The economies of Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea and the Philippines go into free fall.



For Thailand, can we read China ??? However, I wonder if China may be in 1994/95 stage, so following everyone else's predictions, the property market should be safe for at least 2 years.
Of course, there was a huge discrepancy between domestic and USD interest rates, esp for Thailand and Indonesia. This encouraged USD borrowing (since most currencies were 'linked' to the USD then). China has kept interest rates and lending low, which now results in even more money flowing into China, so maybe the inflationary spiral is still early-ish. And of course, foreigners aren't really lending to China. Maybe China is like Thailand a few years before the crash when borrowing kept on leaping up and up.
So, I think we'll be safe until at least after the Beijing Olympics. After that, we'll have to see, but if something happens, wonder will this affect the rest of Asia ?? And agreed, there's still a few years left of US budget deficit before the next US elections which can cause wobbles.

CTV: the one big difference is that China has a trillion dollars in reserves. The Chinese currency, unlike the Thai Baht in 1997, is not wobbly.

I agree with Darock.

Note the big trade difference between US and China. Money is obviously flowing back to the China government too else it would not have accumulated so much foreign reserves.

USD/SGD is a very good hint.

As USD$ hit new low against SGD$, it show a high demand for SGD$. Because you want to invest in Singapore you need SGD$.

Other factor include a stronger economy. GOVERNMENT policies. Singapore lesser dependant on export. Financial hub etc.

USD$/SGD$ hit a low of 1.5080 from a high of 1.7000 12 months ago.

I agree that our property run just started, and it is vital to sell when the time is ripe, but that is a million dollar question.

I agree that our property run just started, and it is vital to sell when the time is ripe, but that is a million dollar question.

I believe this is a multi million dollar question for some of the people in this forum. :)

I believe this is a multi million dollar question for some of the people in this forum. :)

The answer to the question is contained in Shctaw's signature:
"Golden Rule of Property Investment: Never Sell."
Roberto Goizueta
CEO Coca-Cola® :lol:

2 groups of ppl.

A.Those with no properties:Please gahment control the rising prices of homes.Stop the speculators.
B.Those with vested properties:Please leave to market forces.

Which group you belong.


2 groups of ppl.

A.The property is now a bubble.Is going to burst.

B.We are only starting to blow it.

Which group are you in.

Occupancy hitting record highs; home prices also seen rising 12-15%
Uma Shankari
24 April 2007

Delivering a bullish outlook on Singapore's property market, Citigroup's research team yesterday said residential rents could rise 30-40% this year as occupancy hits record highs.

'Taking into account the recent en bloc sales, we believe real occupancy is already at a record high of 95.7% (as opposed to the official figure of 93.9%),' said Citigroup analyst Wendy Koh, who covers the Singapore property market.

And on the back of good demand, residential property prices could go up by another 12-15% this year, outstripping last year's 10.2% increase.

The increase is due to a supply shortfall. Just 5,000 units will be completed this year, and Ms Koh predicts that demand will be substantially higher. Last year, demand for new homes hit 9,000. And over the past 10 years, demand for homes has averaged about 8,000 units a year.

The shortage is expected to continue into 2008, when just 7,000 new homes will become available.

Ms Koh said the luxury market will see a 10-15% price upside in 2007, while prices in the mid-tier segment will grow by 10-20%.

Citigroup is also bullish on the HDB resale market - which has long been stagnant - seeing a 5-10% upside for resale prices of HDB flats. 'The HDB resale market will likely pick up in both volume and prices, which would in turn help support the mass market segment,' said the bank in its latest research note. Ms Koh predicted that mass market prices will climb by about 10% this year.

Office rents will also similarly rise, she said. Rents could hit $14.50 psf by end-2007 and $18.50 psf by 2008.

The bank recommended that investors buy shares of City Developments, Wing Tai, Allgreen Properties and Keppel Land.

2 groups of ppl.

A.Those with no properties:Please gahment control the rising prices of homes.Stop the speculators.
B.Those with vested properties:Please leave to market forces.

Which group you belong.


2 groups of ppl.

A.The property is now a bubble.Is going to burst.

B.We are only starting to blow it.

Which group are you in.

Market just started to run up only. Mass market property have a long way to catch up.

A bull run of property in UK lasted more than 6 years.(or is it 9 years?) In those year there is a terrorist attack in UK, and the property price had gone to level unseen before.

I know we are not in UK:lol: but my understanding is the more careful the market is the less chance it going to break.

Example; The market just started moving and we already talking about bubble and market collaspe.:lol:

i think the market will collaspe when people stop talking about an impending collaspe... markets always turn at extremes where most people are caught off-guard. its funny, but that's how it works... all the time...

i think the market will collaspe when people stop talking about an impending collaspe... markets always turn at extremes where most people are caught off-guard. its funny, but that's how it works... all the time...

Pigs of the same wisdom think alike.

Thank you for your support hor fellow pig pig.:lol:

I am fat pig not little pig. :lol:

Market will crash only when coffee shop auntie, hawker, taxi uncle start talking about buying property. :lol:

I just sold most of my stocks as recently I keep hearing Taxi driver, hawker even Tiger Beer girl talking about stocks. :lol:

They are my leading indicator.:lol: A very good indicator indeed.:lol:

Let see got stock market correction for next 60 days bor?:lol:

CTV: the one big difference is that China has a trillion dollars in reserves. The Chinese currency, unlike the Thai Baht in 1997, is not wobbly.

And now, on top of China's trillion US dollar reserves, Japan, with their own trillion US dollar reserves, are also thinking of putting them into "better use".

One can only wonder what that does to the global economy. :cheers:

There are rumours that the Chinese govt may likely impose new policy to curb the stock market overheating over the China golden week next week. If this happen, it may affect the stock markets in the region again, although unlikely the SGP property mkt will be affected.

With the many enbloc fever going on and pushing new developments price to new high each time, will the SGP government be releasing more residential sites to cool this fever in the next land sale ? I feel the govt may put up more sites in the confirmed lists than the reserve list next round.

honestly, the danger right now is the explosion of any hedge funds industry. that would be detrimental to global economy as HF and PE are the ones right now driving up the financial markets around the world. property is related but not really totally 100%. property seen by many ultra-rich serves as asset diversification, next-generation wealth planning rather than speculation....

even for stocks... as long as you know a value-buy, just hold to it. same for property but right now, it is not really value buy, but potential play.

my 2 cents.

I agree. The next big crisis will emerge from the hedge fund industry, which is under regulated.

Meanwhile... a slightly old story from Bloomberg: http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=amek881mlELg&refer=home

Tell me something. If the Sing Govt is so concerned (and rightly so, in my view) about its global competitiveness - how long can it allow rents to rise like this without taking action to cool the market?

24 April 2007

..........
When asked about rising costs in Singapore, Mr Lee said that was merely cyclical, before going on to give an anecdotal example of the confidence in the Singapore economy.

Under previous spikes, the investment in property was from people in the region.

Now that has changed and there is investment in property internationally by a diverse selection of people from as far away as the Gulf and even Monaco.

And because this is investment in property which is more long-term, he said that was an indication of the depth of confidence.
..........

I agree. The next big crisis will emerge from the hedge fund industry, which is under regulated.

Meanwhile... a slightly old story from Bloomberg: http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=amek881mlELg&refer=home

Tell me something. If the Sing Govt is so concerned (and rightly so, in my view) about its global competitiveness - how long can it allow rents to rise like this without taking action to cool the market?

inevitability.

inevitable that Singapore becomes a major global financial hub in Asia.

inevitable that new bankers, expats with top dollars will come over here and pay the increasing rent thereby replacing the current tenants who are used to the previous rent matrix. Increasing rent also will indirectly fuel property investment as long time expats may find it more justified to buy rather than rent.

inevitable that we progess up the ranks of global cities which offer premium lifestyle. bankers/lawyers/professionals do not really care for rent more than the lifestyle they will enjoy. All they need is a few more good deals to earn that 12 month or more bonus. And this is why the government saw the need for us to be Metropolitan in order to be in that global ranks.

all these cannot be stopped in my view, pending a stable global economic climate.

We are moving towards the rank of global cities and global cities do command "premium" expenses.

and just fyi, read from a magazine that the average monthly salary for expat here is about $37K. take that into consideration as well.

we are, in my personal view, are still competitive right now compared to global financial cities like NY, HK, London, emerging Dubai, etc.

Key factor for S'pore economy is whether US consumers will continue to spend
Audrey Tan
Assistant Money Editor
The Straits Times
25 April 2007

Singapore's economy is likely to grow at the top end of the official 4.5 to 6.5% growth estimate this year, as long as the United States economy holds up, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said yesterday.
A key factor for Singapore's growth is whether US consumers will continue to spend, he said.

If US consumption is hit by the housing market slowdown or other factors, then Singapore may grow only at the lower end of the range, he said at the Reuters Singapore Newsmaker Event, a dialogue with financial and media professionals, yesterday.

'My guess is it doesn't look as if there will be a major downturn in the US, so it may be at the higher end (of the growth forecast). But the key factor is the US economy. They're still our biggest single market,' Mr Lee said.

But fundamentally, Singapore is set to grow, 'short of an oil crisis or major crisis over Iran', he added.

Even foreign investors from as far as the Middle East and Europe can see the stars are aligned for Singapore.

There are Gulf Arabs and even people from Monaco buying property in Singapore in the current property upturn, compared to previous property booms where the only foreign buyers were from the region, Mr Lee said.

'I took that as a great tribute because if you live in Monaco and you are putting money here, obviously you believe this will last as long as Monaco... So it really affirms my conviction that the stars are in the right firmament for us,' he said.

These property purchases are a strong show of confidence in the Singapore economy, Mr Lee said. 'If they just put money into the stock market, they are off tomorrow. But when you buy property, properties take a long time to negotiate and when you want to liquidate, it takes a long time.'

Mr Lee's optimism was mirrored by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which said yesterday that the local economy is on track for a 4th straight year of robust growth.

The central bank is sticking to the official growth estimate even as it notes that the US economy is slowing and the global electronics sector is sputtering.

Singapore's growth momentum may slow in the first half of this year, but will pick up steam in the second half, MAS said in its half-yearly Macroeconomic Review released yesterday.

A 'sharper-than-expected' US downturn is the key risk to global growth this year, but growth in Asia and Europe should provide some cushion for the global economy, it added.

In Asia, strong buying from consumers at home could also help offset a slowdown in exports, it added.

In Singapore, local electronics firms may continue to suffer from the global electronics industry downturn, hurting Singapore's growth momentum in the first half of this year.

But growing stockpiles in the semiconductor industry - which have hit local electronics firms - should clear in the second half, MAS said.

In any case, other non-IT-related industries are expected to be key drivers of growth this year, MAS said.

MAS expects continued growth in non-IT industries, such as transport engineering and the biomedical sector. The finance, retail and tourism industries are also expected to grow, while the property upturn will give a lift to the construction industry, MAS said.

Growth of between 4.5 and 6.5% this year is well above Singapore's medium-term growth potential of 3 to 5% growth, but is still a significant slowdown from last year's 7.9%.

That was the third straight year of healthy growth for the local economy, which grew by 6.6 and 8.8%, respectively, in 2005 and 2004.

But HSBC economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde said Singapore's exports could start to pick up sooner rather than later, which means overall economic growth may well accelerate earlier than the MAS forecast of a second-half recovery.

CTV: the one big difference is that China has a trillion dollars in reserves. The Chinese currency, unlike the Thai Baht in 1997, is not wobbly.

Yes, many differences as mentioned. RMB is not high (lessons from Asian/Japan crisis ?). Also capital account (money) is closed. But still money is pouring in. Much financing is by domestic banks, and much is invested in empty flats and ever increasing (over ?) production.
I wonder if we will get back to NPL's at local banks if it goes pop, this time with govt not bailing them out ? Maybe a US sneeze w/fall in USD could be the trigger as these factories go bust. If that happens, 1 tr in reserves is no use (this money I think is owed to others, ie export profits).

But this probably wont happen, so SG should be safe for a few more years !
:cheers:

USD/SGD is a very good hint.

As USD$ hit new low against SGD$, it show a high demand for SGD$. Because you want to invest in Singapore you need SGD$.

Other factor include a stronger economy. GOVERNMENT policies. Singapore lesser dependant on export. Financial hub etc.

USD$/SGD$ hit a low of 1.5080 from a high of 1.7000 12 months ago.

I agree that our property run just started, and it is vital to sell when the time is ripe, but that is a million dollar question.

Agreed. This is one measure I look at. Last year I was looking for this to eventually to get to USD1.4 (1996 levels). However, believe it can go lower than this in light of past 12 months.
Unfortunately, didn't get that rate (USD1.7) - missed it by 5% by time I had to pay !.

Would it make sense to merge this thread with Property Market Trends? Is that possible? Seems to me like the two threads are duplicating the same issues.

:2cents:

Would it make sense to merge this thread with Property Market Trends? Is that possible? Seems to me like the two threads are duplicating the same issues.

:2cents:

I will second this.

Would it make sense to merge this thread with Property Market Trends? Is that possible? Seems to me like the two threads are duplicating the same issues.

:2cents:

Maybe we should start a new thread to discuss whether we should merge it.:lol:

and just fyi, read from a magazine that the average monthly salary for expat here is about $37K. take that into consideration as well.

Surely $37k is too high ?? BT today said ave base pay for Singapore CEO USD240k (USD325k total ? Again BT made a mistake by leaving out figure). Maybe thats the ave for expat CEO or MD ?

Anyway, I think there is a slight difference about this thread and Property Market Trends. Trends is more general. This should be talking about what may cause a drop in prices (though this post hasn't got much to do with that !!)

there is a huge range in expat salaries. some expats i know are here on "local" packages - which means they don't get huge housing allowances - like $2,500 a month, and no school tuition.

^^ i agree, i have lots of expat friends who are here on local packages -- they get a salary which is higher than the local average, but no other perks such as housing allowance, car allowance, etc. i know an expat couple who are receiving $6,000/month each -- hardly an "expat rate" at all.

Few CEOs make 37k a month. Most expats make between 60-80k a year, which is still higher than the local wages by a bit. Singapore is still a low-cost economy.

Of course some expats (less than 20%) make between 100-200k or upwards in the the millions, but that's a small minority.

The old days of fancy expat living with allowances is going as companies are responsible to shareholders.

keep in mind that for US citizen, on paper salaries of $37,000 per month are taxable at something like 40% to the federal government, with additional taxes to state and city as well. so they don't really have $37,000 a month to spend.

for the past 10 years or so, most MNCs have been localizing. which is why all this talk of foreign talent coming is puzzling....

different industries?

Localisation trend is also happening in HK to some degree. Something like any expat here over 3-5 years, they try to localise package (note try).

Separately and, fortunately (for HK), housing is almost not taxed (ie there is a housing allowance). I remember about 1 year also US govt decided to tax allowances, causing huge outcry amongst expat yanks. After this, I saw a list which gave expats based in HK the largest housing allowance in the world. I vaguely remember the allowance in SG was much lower, maybe 1/2 to 1/3 ???
With the rent increases in SG, I wonder if the US gov has increased this rate !!!

There are definitely more expats coming to Singapore to work, but most of them are coming from India, China, Philippines and Indonesia. The salaries are on local terms and are not in the > 100k per annum package. Most of the foreigners are forced to move to the heartlands as the rentals are rising in the faster rate than their increment.

Minister is bullish about growth potential but says land and labour costs must stay competitive
Geert De Clercq and Mia Shanley
Reuters
Singapore
4 May 2007

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/0c/Singapore.jpg
Singapore can exceed its 3 to 5% growth potential over the next five to eight years, but will keep land and labour costs in check to remain competitive, Second Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said on Friday.

Shanmugaratnam, who was managing director of Singapore's central bank before entering politics in 2001, told Reuters that the government is not worried about inflation despite a planned two percentage point increase in the goods and services tax, a tight labour market, and a red-hot property market.

He said the Monetary Authority of Singapore has a "good handle" on inflation and that the country had the lowest inflation in Asia outside of Japan. Singapore's consumer prices rose an average one percent in 2006 and the central bank expects average inflation of between 0.5 to 1.5% this year.

"My guess is that it will probably be closer to 1%," Shanmugaratnam, 50, told Reuters in an interview.

He also said that the strength of the Singapore dollar against the US dollar was "not a critical issue" for Singapore's exporters, and added that the strength of Asian currencies was in line with economic fundamentals.

Shanmugaratnam added that Singapore would probably grow at the top end of the government's 4.5 to 6.5% forecast range, provided the tech inventory overhang improves, as expected, in the second half of the year.

The price of oil, he said, was the one wild card that could derail economic growth prospects this year.

He said the city-state could exceed its medium-term growth potential "if we keep on doing the right things, and keep on attracting people and enterprise the way we have been doing".

"We can maintain a higher growth rate than most because we are a city-state that's much more open than most other economies. We can plug ourself into each new wave of opportunity, particularly in Asia," Shanmugaratnam said.

He said that rising property prices and higher salaries were a logical consequence of such policies, but added Singapore would remain competitive with other financial centres.

"We are quite confident that we will remain a lower-cost city among the high-value cities of the world. Amongst the financial centres of the world, we will remain lower cost for quite some time to come," he said, adding that office space costs were still about a third of those in London, 40% of those in Hong Kong and about 60% of those in Tokyo.

He said that the planned new financial centre at the city's waterfront Marina Bay would ease price pressure on office space. He also said that the government would not be shy to intervene in the property market to curb excessive price inflation but said "we are not anywhere near that yet."

"We are quite comfortable with the present stage of the cycle because the mass market is not involved in the frenzy," he said.

Few CEOs make 37k a month. Most expats make between 60-80k a year, which is still higher than the local wages by a bit. Singapore is still a low-cost economy.

Of course some expats (less than 20%) make between 100-200k or upwards in the the millions, but that's a small minority.

The old days of fancy expat living with allowances is going as companies are responsible to shareholders.

Sounds a bit low if most expats make 60-80k per annum (presume you are talking SG $). I think salaries whether expat or local very dependent also on industry.. I was previously in the tobacco industry (no lynching party, I hope!) and some of the salary packages were unbelievable.

I think some of our locals are paid pretty well too, with the stock options translating into huge capital gains, share price rising 4xs or more.

I heard one small listed firm CFO bought a penthouse in Orchard area and another landed property for investment. Fully paid.

Stock market fueled property market.

I think some of our locals are paid pretty well too, with the stock options translating into huge capital gains, share price rising 4xs or more.

I heard one small listed firm CFO bought a penthouse in Orchard area and another landed property for investment. Fully paid.

Stock market fueled property market.
Thats atypical of any market ....its the simple wealth effect- the stock markets lead and other asset classes like property lag . Wealth that is created in stock market run up typically will get cashed out and reinvested in asset classes that lag. have seenthat happen in a few markets. i guess the one market that curretly bucks that trend is the US , but thats for a multitude of other reasons.

It is happening in the China property market too. There is just sooo much liquidity in the world at the moment. Like they say, seize the day!

When the tsunami from the economic down cycle in the US hits, Singapore investors can still profit, if they are ready
Clemen Chiang
Business Times
9 May 2007
http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/6460/bt619508309052007152becxx8.jpg

Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said recently that he believes Singapore's economic growth this year will reach the upper end of the government's forecast range of 4.5-6.5%. But he added: 'Much will depend on how the US consumer behaves.'

MM Lee is spot on. I believe that the health of the US economy does not hinge on whether Fed chairman Ben Bernanke raises or lowers interest rates. This has no material impact on consumer spending. The most important statistic for predicting economic waves depends on the combination of two critical factors: the birth peak and the spending cycle.

According to the US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, starting in the late 1800s, births peaked in 1921 and again in 1961. Every 40 years there is a new generation created and every 80 years economic, business, and lifestyle revolutions emerge. This trend can be applied through the generations into the future. Based on this statistic and the demographics of the population, economic upturns and downturns can be forecasted in a systematic fashion.

Strauss and Howe's first book, Generations (1991), tells the history of America as a succession of generational biographies from 1584 to the present. They describe a 40- to 41-year spending cycle in which there is an initial 27-year boom followed by a 14-year downturn. The greatest spending cycle begins when the birth wave enters the workforce at the age of 19 to 22 until they reach 47 years of age.

The Consumer Expenditure Survey released in February by the US Census Bureau showed the major components of spending which account for about 90% of total expenditure. They comprise: food, housing, apparel and services, transportation, healthcare, entertainment, personal insurance and pensions.

In the table, a birth peak takes place every 40 years - in 1881, 1921, 1961 and 2001. From each birth peak, we add 19-22 years to arrive at the start of the spending cycle. Before the age of 19-22, this birth peak population is not contributing to the economy. As such, the spending cycle starts in 1902, 1941, 1982 and 2023. Thereafter, spending grows which leads to a 27-year boom.

Unfortunately, when the birth peak population matures at 47 years old, it will result in a drop in spending for the next 14 years. This begins the 14-year down cycle.

I plotted the birth peak and spending cycle over the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is the oldest continuing US market index. Starting with the birth peak of 1881, the economy grew from 1902 to 1928 which is the 27-year boom. From 1928 to 1941, it suffered a 14-year down cycle. In 1929, the market experienced its worst decline - the Great Depression.

From 1941 to 1982, the birth peak and spending cycle demonstrated their accuracy once again. Taking the next starting point at 1982, we can extrapolate to peek into the future. The economy will grow for 27 years from 1982 to 2009. Unfortunately, from 2009 onwards, I predict that the US market will crash and it will last for 14 long years.

The question is, how do we prepare for this market crash in 2009?

First of all, I must say that Singapore is well-prepared for this crash in the event that it does happen. We are strategically positioned in the following key industry sectors:
- biomedical sciences and healthcare
- chemicals
- clean energy
- education services
- electronics
- emerging industries
- engineering and environmental services
- headquarters and professional services
- infocommunications and media
- logistics
- precision engineering, and
- transport engineering.

More importantly, with the two integrated resorts, Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World at Sentosa, opening in 2009 and 2010, increased visitor arrivals will continue to reap tourism receipts to cushion the spending drop in the US.

Thus, the practical question should be: How do Singapore investors profit from a market crash in 2009?

Before I provide you with the answer, let's study the Singapore government Master Plan which can be found at www.ura.gov.sg. Two of the key proposals are:
1. long-term population growth from 4.4 million to 6.5 million by 2040-2050, and
2. the 33-station Downtown MRT line.

An increase in the population size by 2.1 million in 30 to 40 years requires a proportionate increase of space for people to live in. There are two ways to go about this: laterally or vertically.

Under Concept Plan 2001, possible future reclamation is limited. That is, lateral development of space is capped.

Instead, we have to focus on vertical development, especially in those areas identified for this purpose.

As for transport, radial lines will enable you to travel to the city directly. Orbital lines will enable you to get from one place to another outside the central area more quickly. The existing 93 km of rail lines will increase to about 500 km in future. For car owners, rides will be faster and smoother in future with more capacity on expressways.

Piecing the puzzle together, I highly recommend investing in real estate during the market crash, particularly in areas that the growing population will be living in. These are found in the sub-regional centres as well as the regional centres.

However, with the prevalence of Internet and video conferencing, it is no longer necessary to commute to work in the central area on a daily basis. These exciting new technologies will give us a great deal more flexibility as to where we live in the years to come.

For me, I would want to live, work and play at Sentosa Cove - a most desired address. Here, you will discover the wealthiest individuals who will not be affected by the market crash because they have already invested for the future.

The writer is CEO, Freely Business School.
www.freely.com

^^ OMG... this guy is into property market too? :ohno:

The statistics on birth peak & spending growth are merely US data.
( btw, just wonder if 1941 achieved a spending growth due to world war 2 ? )

In the 21th century, China and India are playing huge in this world and their influence in Asia is particularly obvious.
Both their population is almost 2/3 of the world and still growing.
Moreover, the birth peak in Asia is likely to be different from US or Europe.
For instance, Chinese birth peak is likely to be in Dragon year, 2000, 2012.
In a way, I personally don't believe in this data although I am a believer that the property is on the upward trend up to at least 2010 in Singapore...mainly due to fundamental economics and the upcoming 2 IRs effects that had been proven in other countries in the world.

The statistics on birth peak & spending growth are merely US data.
( btw, just wonder if 1941 achieved a spending growth due to world war 2 ? )

In the 21th century, China and India are playing huge in this world and their influence in Asia is particularly obvious.
Both their population is almost 2/3 of the world and still growing.
Moreover, the birth peak in Asia is likely to be different from US or Europe.
For instance, Chinese birth peak is likely to be in Dragon year, 2000, 2012.
In a way, I personally don't believe in this data although I am a believer that the property is on the upward trend up to at least 2010 in Singapore...mainly due to fundamental economics and the upcoming 2 IRs effects that had been proven in other countries in the world.


Clemen predicted that US market will crash in 2009. Somehow he also deduced that the Singapore market will follow but never state the reason why.

The Singapore economy may be in a different state in 2009 due to the structural changes we are undergoing and the influences of China and India.

The statistics on birth peak & spending growth are merely US data.
( btw, just wonder if 1941 achieved a spending growth due to world war 2 ? )

In the 21th century, China and India are playing huge in this world and their influence in Asia is particularly obvious.
Both their population is almost 2/3 of the world and still growing.
Moreover, the birth peak in Asia is likely to be different from US or Europe.
For instance, Chinese birth peak is likely to be in Dragon year, 2000, 2012.
In a way, I personally don't believe in this data although I am a believer that the property is on the upward trend up to at least 2010 in Singapore...mainly due to fundamental economics and the upcoming 2 IRs effects that had been proven in other countries in the world.

Again, Baby has hit the nail on the head… :applause:

Clemen predicted that US market will crash in 2009. Somehow he also deduced that the Singapore market will follow but never state the reason why.

The Singapore economy may be in a different state in 2009 due to the structural changes we are undergoing and the influences of China and India.

Yes, he has omitted the fact that the Singapore economy "may in a different state in 2009 due to the structural changes we are undergoing and the influences of China and India”.

As for how he predicted the US market will stall in 2009… he must have read the book “The Right Stock at the Right Time” by written by Larry Williams.

Bush would have already bankrupted USA in 2008.Come 2009 it will be Hillary or Obama to pick up the pieces.

Strong fundamentals back high property prices here
Charles Tan Meah Yang
Today
9 May 2007

I write in response to the letters from concerned readers Lim Boon Hee and Steve Ngo, regarding their views on the state of global price levels and, more specifically, those of our local housing market ("A lesson worth remembering", May 7 and "Just a lot of bull?", May 8).

Let me quote a more prominent investing legend, Mr Warren Buffett, who said in his 1992 annual report to shareholders: "We've long felt that the only value of (stock) forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good."

This is not to discount the wisdom of legendary investor Jeremy Grantham — there is merit in his conclusion — but one need not take a six-week trip round the globe to tell you that abundant liquidity, fuelled by cheap Yen carries, exchange rate fixing by Asian central banks and gaping trade surpluses in the Middle East, will invariably lead to global inflation.

I do not doubt that there will be a correction in prices, but I do not agree on how steep the correction will be, and how long it will take. Corrections are inevitable; collapses are improbable.

For one, asset and stock prices are being supported by solid demand fundamentals this time around. For example, on April 29, a highway section collapsed in Oakland, California. But when CNBC first broke the news, contractors were reportedly struggling to find steel in sufficient quantities for the reconstruction effort. It has been more than a week since, and work has not yet begun.

Also, oil prices are high for a variety of economic distortions, but China's building of a massive strategic reserve isn't helping.

Lastly, the S&P500 is closing in on highs last seen seven years ago, but with trailing Price to Earnings (P/E) at 18 and forward P/E at 16, I wouldn't call the market cheap — but I would hardly call it overbought.

Furthermore, central bankers in developed economies have had plenty of time to analyse policy failings from past recessions and are better informed than ever to avert global financial meltdown, and instead engineer a gradual cooling of inflation.

One of the most annoying truisms in financial analysis is: "What goes up must come down". Stock markets, unlike bad stock analysts, are not subject to the physical laws of gravity. Stock markets trend upwards in reflection of a generally positive growth in population, productivity and profit. To insinuate that prices must return to origin based on a Newtonian concept of nature is simply puerile.

An item is only worth as much as another is willing to pay for it. Rising valuations, as Mr Lim put it, are not a problem if deals are still getting closed, and, in fact, are a sign that there is no shortage of demand even at his perceived "bubble prices".

If you look only at average salaries here, the current property boom is unsustainable. But our property market is not solely determined by the average Singaporean. Foreign investors with hefty paycheques contribute to demand, too, and this effect filters into the markets that are closed off to them (ie HDB flats) as richer Singaporeans who have been priced out of condominiums divert their fat wallets toward the Government alternative.

Strong fundamentals back high property prices here
If you look only at average salaries here, the current property boom is unsustainable. But our property market is not solely determined by the average Singaporean. Foreign investors with hefty paycheques contribute to demand, too, and this effect filters into the markets that are closed off to them (ie HDB flats) as richer Singaporeans who have been priced out of condominiums divert their fat wallets toward the Government alternative.

The key here is to be realistic, live within what you can afford. Use only spare cash if you are buying for investment (not the one u live). There is no need to chase after the high end property to stay luxury if one cannot afford them. It's actually alright to stay in HDB or a mass mkt private condo in Singapore given the quality of housing is very good compared to other countries. If one is very rich, then no need to complain about price hike if you want to live in high end luxury property in prime district. ...buy if you can but be prepared to compete with the rich foreigners ! :cheers:

Those who dont have properties or have sold out theirs earlier and not bought any will shout bubble,just a lot of bull,property market unsustainable etc etc.And the prices sky rocket out of their means.They are jealous and helpless.

The current market is not for the average salary Singaporean. :lol:


If you look only at average salaries here, the current property boom is unsustainable. But our property market is not solely determined by the average Singaporean. Foreign investors with hefty paycheques contribute to demand, too, and this effect filters into the markets that are closed off to them (ie HDB flats) as richer Singaporeans who have been priced out of condominiums divert their fat wallets toward the Government alternative.

That's why 80% of residents should continue to stay in HDB...Don't think HDB flats will sell beyond $1000psf within 5yrs ? If this happen, then it could be real bubble :nuts:....the most expensive HDB in RedHill (as reported in Straits Times ) is probably slightly less than $450psf at the moment ?

Therefore HDB is the key index to sg bubble?

What was the highest psf transacted for HDB at its peak in 1996?

About 600 psf for Bishan unit?

Wow, that means we are still a long way to go, ya? :)

If you look only at average salaries here, the current property boom is unsustainable. But our property market is not solely determined by the average Singaporean. Foreign investors with hefty paycheques contribute to demand, too, and this effect filters into the markets that are closed off to them (ie HDB flats) as richer Singaporeans who have been priced out of condominiums divert their fat wallets toward the Government alternative.

Actually, in a Merrill report in February, it found that affordability was at its highest (most affordable) at the time the report was researched compared to the last 12 years or so. The report looked at the 70th percentile of the median salary in Singapore (representing the segment of the population that is likely to invest in private property) and compared the percentage of that salary that a mortgagee will pay based on prevailing property prices. In 1995/96 it was around 35% to 40%. At the time the report was researched, it was around 25%. This was one of the reasons it found that property prices still had some way to go in Singapore and affordability could push the 40% level again. 25% to 40% translates to a more than 50% increase in prices assuming salaries and interest rates remain the same.

Actually, in a Merrill report in February, it found that affordability was at its highest (most affordable) at the time the report was researched compared to the last 12 years or so. The report looked at the 70th percentile of the median salary in Singapore (representing the segment of the population that is likely to invest in private property) and compared the percentage of that salary that a mortgagee will pay based on prevailing property prices. In 1995/96 it was around 35% to 40%. At the time the report was researched, it was around 25%. This was one of the reasons it found that property prices still had some way to go in Singapore and affordability could push the 40% level again. 25% to 40% translates to a more than 50% increase in prices assuming salaries and interest rates remain the same.


If we take a closer look at UK london property price, there is no co-relation between personal earning, number of mortgage, number of houses sold etc.

When come to affordability, it depend on who you are talking to. We may find our property expensive, yet oversea investors find them cheap as they are comparing us to big city like London, Monaco, New York and Hong Kong.:)

Right now a small property in London near the palace, cost SGD$1.5-1.8 million and we are talking about a 300 sq feet studio.

Average price of property in London now is GBP2000 psf. Yet majority of Londoners earn average GBP2500-3500 only.

I also thought UK property bull run cannot substain, and that was back in 2005.

Yet the UK bull run still continue till today.:lol:

the bubble is real big now with yesterday's 3.5k STI breach.

whos pumping in all the money? Maybe it is those hedge fund/ private equity money....what if they suddenly pull out...

About 8,500 take up Singapore Citizenship annually
AsiaOne
21 May 2007

More foreigners have been granted permanent residency in Singapore annually, with the number reaching over 50,000 in the last two years.

Deputy Prime Minister Minister Wong Kan Seng told Parliament today that over the last 10 years, from 1997 to 2006, an average of about 36,000 persons were granted Permanent Residence (PR) in Singapore annually.

Most of them - about 48% - came from South-East, South and East Asia and some were from diverse places such as the Americas, Oceania and Europe.

Responding to a question from Nominated MP Siew Kum Hong, Mr Wong said that the total PR granted has generally been on an upward trend.

"Since 2001, the number of PR granted was consistently more than 30,000. For the years 2005 and 2006, the number of PR granted was above 50,000," said Mr Wong, who is also the Home Affairs Minister.

And in the last 10 years, an average of 8,500 Singapore PRs became Singapore citizens annually, he added.

In an interview with The Straits Times in March to underscore Singapore’s need for immigration for its economy to thrive, Mr Wong said that Singapore needs an additional 87,300 people in the workforce for its economy to grow at 6% this year.

But the workforce is projected to grow by only 52,700 a year, when citizens and permanent residents (PRs) alone are taken into account. This means that Singapore is still short of 34,600 people.

From 2001 to 2005, Singapore attracted about 8,000 new citizens per year. Last year, the number hit 13,200. Looking forward, “a good number” will be to get 10,000 to 12,000 new citizens a year, said Mr Wong, who chairs the National Population Committee.

Singapore is preparing to host 6.5 million people comfortably, up from the 5.5 million estimate given six years ago. With low birth rates, foreigners are expected to be the main source of growth.

Yes, but it's not easy to find that many skilled people year on year. You can get boatloads of refugees, sure.. but not condo-buying skilled middle class types. Aus, Canada, UK, US are all also aiming to attract the same kind of people. Plus, the article does not make clear how many of the vacancies are for low paying jobs that Singapoeans will not do.. which again means that the influx will not necessarily help support condo prices.

Yes, but it's not easy to find that many skilled people year on year. You can get boatloads of refugees, sure.. but not condo-buying skilled middle class types. Aus, Canada, UK, US are all also aiming to attract the same kind of people. Plus, the article does not make clear how many of the vacancies are for low paying jobs that Singapoeans will not do.. which again means that the influx will not necessarily help support condo prices.


I understand your point but I do not believe we give citizenships to refugees:) and low-skilled workers that easily.

Singapore's Real-Estate Bubble Won't Be Pricked: Andy Mukherjee

By Andy Mukherjee

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Asset-bubble vigilantes will find little to cheer about with Singapore's falling interbank lending rate.

They will be partly right: Cheaper capital is about the last thing the island's frenzied property market needs.

According to official statistics, housing loans by Singapore banks reached S$64.3 billion ($42.2 billion) in March. That's the highest on record.

With prices of private homes surging the most in seven years in the first quarter, and with rents having already climbed to levels not seen since 1998, it isn't surprising that more people are rushing to take out mortgages.

The trend may amplify if borrowing costs fall: The key three-month interest rate was at a 19-month low of 2.25 percent yesterday, a percentage-point drop since the end of February. It might be a matter of time before long-term rates follow suit.

Singapore yesterday reported that the economy expanded at a faster-than-expected annualized 7.6 percent pace in the first quarter. The momentum is coming from a revival in construction, which grew at its briskest rate in nine years.

If the U.S. economy rebounds in the second half of 2007, Singapore's flagging electronics exports may get a boost. That will be a bonus. In such a scenario, cheap money will appear both incongruous and dangerous.

Yet, bubble vigilantes will also be wrong.

Singapore's monetary policy should respond purely to a growth-inflation tradeoff. Asset prices are incidental; if the financial system can withstand the risk of exuberance -- as Singapore's surely can -- the central bank will be unfair to the broader economy by stifling growth too early.

Casinos, Kayaks

This boom may still have a couple of years to run. With no letup in global risk appetite, there isn't a dearth of investors willing to take a bet on this emerging Asian playground of the well-heeled.

Singapore will have two casinos by 2010; it's also building the world's largest Ferris wheel; the Public Utilities Board is going all out to turn the city's reservoirs and canals into hotspots for kayaking and waterfront living. Formula One racing is coming to the central business district.

It's a perfect backdrop for a property boom to run ahead of itself. Indeed, not a day passes without news of an older block of apartments being torn down to be replaced by newer construction. The resulting supply shortage is squeezing the expatriate population -- most local Singaporeans live in public housing -- by pushing up rents even further.

Yet, it isn't stopping a steady inflow of new arrivals. Land owners are tizzy with excitement.

All of this begs the question: Shouldn't monetary policy be playing a cautionary role by leaning against the wind?

Monetary Policy

The Monetary Authority of Singapore doesn't manage interest rates. It buys and sells the local dollar to keep it anchored against an undisclosed basket of trading partners' currencies.

The monetary stance, since April 2004, has been one of ``modest and gradual appreciation'' in the home currency.

Singapore's foreign-exchange reserves have risen by more than $12 billion in the past year, restricting gains in the currency to less than 4 percent against the U.S. dollar.

Rather than remove the additional liquidity from the banking system by selling bonds and bills, which is what other Asian central banks do to maintain control over money supply in the face of strong capital inflows, the Singapore monetary authority follows a more hands-off approach.

Bubble Trouble

That's because domestic money supply doesn't have much of an impact on consumer-price inflation on the island of 4.5 million people. The annual inflation rate has been less than 1 percent for eight straight months now, even though money supply growth has steadily accelerated to reach almost 23 percent in March, compared with 8 percent a year earlier.

From an asset-bubble perspective, the strategy isn't without its risks. If property is hot, stocks are no less so. The benchmark Straits Times Index rose to a record yesterday.

``Sustained liquidity expansion could exert undesirable macro effects in the medium term,'' Yen Ping Ho, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. currency strategist, said in a May 18 note. ``While inflation remains low, rising financial asset prices and booming housing activity should increasingly be a source of concern.''

There is talk that Singapore is intentionally targeting lower interest rates because it wants to avoid becoming a target of carry traders by offering them high yields.

The Monetary Authority issued a clarification yesterday, denying that the fall in local interest rates was deliberate. ``MAS does not manage interest rates,'' the central bank said in an e-mailed statement. ``Recent movements reflect market forces.''

Global Party

Those who believe all central banks should be in the business of pricking bubbles will find the Singapore authority's stance unsatisfactory. But the Monetary Authority will be prudent to react only if runaway asset prices spill over into consumer prices. That is what it did between 1991 and 1994.

Capital is under-priced on a global scale. A small, open economy like Singapore can't buy insurance against an eventual return of financial risk. Vigilantes should look elsewhere.

(Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Good article. Thanks!

A low level Sibor may not be good for Singapore Property Bull Run but then again that is just "Text Book Stuff" if you guys know what I mean.

If Sibor falls due to lot of Money flush into Singapore, what so bad about it.

I just finish reading a Sibor report, it just make more sense now.

The article is below.

Why Have Yields Been Falling? (Current Sibor stand at 2.215% as of 24 May 2007)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Many of our investors have been seeing the annualized net interest rates for the Cash Fund falling by quite a bit. One might wonder: ‘What are the main reasons behind the fall in the rate?’ and ‘Is it still worth the while to invest in such money market funds?’

In this article, we shall look at some of the reasons behind the lower annualized net interest rates. To start with, the Cash Fund managed by Prudential Asset Management ( Singapore) invests into Singapore dollar deposits with varying terms of maturities of not more than a year (or 366 calendar days). A commonly observed indicator of short-term interest rates in Singapore would be the Singapore interbank offer rate or SIBOR. SIBOR is the rate that banks can borrow funds from other banks in Singapore. Movements in the SIBOR tend to be indicative of the movement of short-term interest rates offered by Singapore dollar deposits available in the market. Thus, we think that it is important for us to observe the trend in SIBOR and the reasons why it has been trending down recently.

Based on chart 1, since March this year, SIBOR has been spiraling down. For instance, SIBOR on 1 March was 3.3%, but on 8 May it fell to 2.6%. What were some of the reasons behind the fall?

Flush of Liquidity Keeping Rates Low

One important reason for the fall in shorter-term yield is the excess liquidity inherent in Singapore. There has been an increasing level of money supply and that has kept yields relatively low. As shown in chart 2, the market has been flushed with money, particularly with the M2 category of money supply. M2 money supply represents a relatively liquid source of cash outstanding in the financial sector. It is made up of the most liquid forms of money such as currency in active circulation, demand deposits, fixed deposits, savings and other deposits such as negotiable certificates of deposits held with financial institutions.

There has been a strong growth in M2 in the past few months. In the first three months, growth in M2 averaged 22.1% year-on-year, much higher in comparison to the average monthly growth of 11.8% in 2006. Being flushed with cash, the fixed income market is now facing a situation commonly known as excess liquidity. Now, what is the impact of this excess liquidity on yield? This can be illustrated using a theory of demand and supply.

When banks are flushed with liquidity, there is less incentive for them to raise the rates that they offer to attract both institutional and retail depositors. In fact, with the market filled with liquidity, it may mean that banks may even be able borrow monies with reduced interest rates. Hence, the excess liquidity that we have seen, particularly with the short-term fixed income instruments, may be one vital reason for yields falling in the recent months.

The Effect of Singapore Currency Appreciating

There are two main reasons why the appreciating Singapore dollar may be keeping yields at bay. But first, let’s try to understand why the Singapore dollar appreciated so much in the first place? And what has the appreciation got to do with excess liquidity and lower yields?

Unlike neighbors such as Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, Singapore curbs inflationary pressures by taking on an approach to gradually let their currency appreciate against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. This would mean that the strengthening of the currencies will prevent inflation from being imported into Singapore. For instance, when the Singapore dollar strengthens against the US dollar, the cost of buying raw materials such as oil and commodities is reduced for manufacturers.

In April, the MAS Monetary Policy Statement on 10 April 2007 report mentioned that the Singapore dollar exchange rate has fluctuated near the upper end of the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate ($NEER) policy band during the past six months. Chart 3 shows the strong appreciation of the Singapore dollar against the US dollar. From the end of December 2005 to the end of April in 2007, the Singapore dollar has appreciated 8.6% against the US dollar. The Singapore dollar to US dollar exchange rate was 1.5197 as at end April.

As the Singapore dollar is on an appreciating trend, we think that this may have attracted more foreign investors to park their monies here in Singapore dollars, causing an influx of cash into banks and financial institutions. This may have added on to the flush of liquidity in the market.

The second reason is related more to intervention by policy makers. One might ask if there has been any concerted effort to improve yields by the authorities. From the policy statement released by MAS on 10 April 2007, the authority said that they will maintain the stance of having a ‘modest and gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar’. In the report dated 10 April, there would be no re-centering of the policy band or any change to its slope or width. Thus, from here we can generally infer that there is intention to keep the Singapore dollar exchange rate within the previous policy band that was set out. With that, our view is that there is less of an incentive for the authorities to take on a stance to aggressively absorb the excess liquidity in the market.

Besides these two factors, we think another reason behind lower yields would be that generally the current inflationary environment does not warrant a high interest rate.

Benign Inflation Levels

According to MAS, annual inflation rate is expected to range from 0.5% to 1.5% in 2007. This takes into account an increase in the goods and service tax (GST) from 5% to 7% (come July 2007) and rising commercial rental rates. In fact, core inflation figures has declined from a 1.7% year-on-year growth in January 2006 to just 0.7% in March this year. Typically, when inflation is at benign levels, interest rates are not high. For example, currently Japan is expecting a 0.1% gain in CPI in 2007, and its benchmark rate is only at 0.5%. Given that there is an expectation that inflation is likely to remain at reasonable levels of 0.5% to 1.5% in 2007, it is unlikely that interest rates, particularly short term rates, would see a sudden spike upwards.

Flat Yield Curve Gives Little Opportunity to Improve Yield

The Cash Fund invests in deposits and works to consolidate monies from the public and invest into interbank deposits which earn higher interest rates. So far, the cash fund has been placing most of its cash in deposits which ranges from 1 day, 2 weeks, 4 weeks, up till 9 weeks – 76.1% and 23.9% in cash deposits of 11 weeks and above. This is according to the factsheet as at end March 2007. One might ask if it is possible to actually increase the portion that is placed to longer term deposits to get better yield. However, as we can see in chart 5, the yield curve for Singapore sovereign is still relatively flat. The 12 months SIBOR is at 2.6838%, only 0.08% higher than the 1 Month SIBOR of 2.6006%. Due to low spreads between deposits of different maturities, there is also less incentive to invest in slightly longer term deposits at this point of time.

Conclusion

To summarize, the current factors keeping SIBOR low include strong liquidity (shown by the M2 supply), strong Singapore currency attracting investors and low local inflation levels. The Fund is currently invested at an annualized net interest rate only lower than the prevailing SIBOR rate by about 25 basis points, which is quite close. Even so, at current levels the annualized net interest rate of the Fund is still higher than the general deposit rates quoted by commercial banks for their retail customers. The 3-month SIBOR as at 8 March is 2.625%.

The savings rate offered by the largest local banks in Singapore range from 0.25% to 0.275% for deposits of less than $50,000, a rate that is has not increased much in the past couple of years. For fixed deposits, 12 months fixed deposit rates offered by the major banks ranged form 0.7% to 0.825% for deposits below $50,000 and 1.7% to 1.8% for deposits of more than $50,000. These are based on non-promotional rates as at 9 th May 2007. Given that this is the case, it still makes good sense to invest in a money market fund that invests into a spectrum of deposits with different interbank rates such as the Cash Fund.

As at 7 May 2007, the cash fund offers a net annualized interest rate of 2.377%, a rate that is lower than the 2.597% offered as at 25 January 2007. This is net of the annualized expense ratio of 0.35%.

New hires have doubled as property agencies take in more agents to cash in on boom.
AsiaOne
1 June 2007

The continuing property boom has led to many people signing on as property agents, even though they have no previous experience.

Property agencies are hiring more agents, with some even doubling the number of recruits.

DTZ Debenham Tie Leung has signed up nearly 500 new agents since January, twice that of the same period in 2006, while Knight Frank has almost doubled its army of agents.

Some of the new hires are former agents who left the industry during the property downturn, but have returned.

Growing buyer demand allows agents to sell a property in a shorter time, and also spend less on marketing it.

Dr Tan Tee Khoon, director of Knight Frank's associates division, said that an increasing number of white-collar professionals are also taking to real estate.

But most agencies cautioned new agents not toexpect to make huge profits immediately. Said Mr Eric Cheng, senior division director of PropNex: "I always say that if you want to be serious in real estate, you must have $10,000 in your bank to fuel the first three to six months."

Singapore cashes in on a raft of graft
June 5, 2007

The island state has laid out the welcome mat for Jakarta's dubious tycoons, writes Eric Ellis.

SINGAPORE'S property market is roaring. The lease on our apartment will soon expire and our landlady wants 70 per cent more rent than she did in 2004.

No matter that the place leaks like a Canberra cabinet and that its 1970s-wired electricity trips at least once a week — these are details too far for our pococurante proprietrix.

But she has noticed that a bloke from Tokyo has signed, sight unseen, for a same-sized unimproved flat downstairs at 150 per cent more than the vacating lessee. She reckons we are getting a bargain at her $S6000-a-month ($A4709) offer.

It's all very puzzling as there is no textbook rationale to the sudden real estate boom. The economy has been growing at an unremarkable-for-Asia 6 per cent, much the same as it has for years, save the difficult "Asian contagion" period of the late 1990s.

There is no more government pump-priming than usual, none of the official withholding of land to get prices artificially moving that is much loved in Singapore's rival for city-state hothouse, Hong Kong. And though wealthy enough, with just 4.5 million people Singapore is still 2.4 billion consumers short of being "Chindia", Asia's neologism du jour that excites economists in Delhi and Beijing. From Sotheby's to shares, Singapore has no shortage of places to park cash. But new luxury apartment blocks are sprouting among the frangipani, touting all manner of metropolitan arcadia. They sport funky names such as Trillium and Botanika, fashioned on hoardings in designer fonts usually seen in Wallpaper magazine.

My favourite promises that the Elysian towers rising behind it will be "home to 46 of the most luminous families" — which will presumably take care of electricity bills.

One reason for the sudden property boom seems to reside in neighbouring Indonesia, rated by graft watchdog Transparency International at 130th of the 163 nations it tracks in its annual corruption survey.

TI's first place — aka the world's least corrupt place — is occupied by Finland, Iceland and New Zealand. Australia ranks joint ninth with The Netherlands.

Jakarta's dubious tycoons and officials have long regarded Singapore as a handy place to stash cash, few questions asked.

Mostly Chinese Singapore has also been a friendly place for Indonesia's ethnic Chinese to park cash and assets, lest they be seized in the periodic pogroms visited on them in the all-too-frequent times of turmoil in Indonesia.

A Merrill Lynch study last year noted that a third of Singapore's 55,000 millionaires were Indonesian nationals. They control $US87 billion ($A104.5 billion) in assets, making Singapore an affluent northern suburb of Jakarta.

While the link is perhaps spurious, some analysts here who know Indonesia well (read: had their fingers burnt there) note the coincidence that Singapore's boom follows the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami. The worst of that calamity was experienced just an island away from Singapore in Aceh. After the waters came another tsunami, of aid and donations — your money. But the aid effort has been plagued by massive corruption. Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono roared into office in 2004 on a ticket to clean up graft. He suspects that too much of Indonesia's wealth is secreted away in Singapore and wants to winkle miscreants — and their money — back to justice in Jakarta. Brussels also wants Singapore to co-operate with its efforts to crack down on tax shelters. But the boom in private banking has been a nice little earner for Singapore, and it is all very tricky for a regional financial centre ranked an impressive fifth on the TI index, and which trades off a global reputation for transparency, good governance and intolerance to corruption within its borders.

Andy Xie attended last year's World Bank summit in the city-state as Morgan Stanley's oft-quoted chief Asia economist. In a bank email, he wrote that he found it an odd location for such an important meeting.

"Singapore was so far from any action or the hot topic of China and India," wrote Xie. "Mumbai or Shanghai would have been a lot more appropriate. ASEAN has been a failure. Its GDP in nominal dollar terms has not changed for 10 years. Singapore's per capita income has not changed either at $25,000. China's GDP in dollar terms has tripled during the same period."

Singapore's success, Xie claimed, "came mainly from being the money laundering centre for corrupt Indonesian businessmen and government officials. Indonesia has no money. So Singapore isn't doing well. To sustain its economy, Singapore is building casinos to attract corrupt money from China."

Singapore authorities were not pleased. Xie left Morgan Stanley soon after his mail was leaked to the press.

Jakarta has been at Singapore for years to sign an extradition treaty. Indonesia, a poor country but by dint of its size and population the regional superpower, has gently reminded Singapore who is boss in South-East Asia — by banning sand exports from neighbouring Indonesian islands to Singapore, depriving it of an essential building material for all those new towers to be developed and populated by Indonesian tycoons. Last month, Singapore acquiesced, claiming it's done nothing wrong.

The junta in Burma helpfully offered to step into Jakarta's shoes and supply Singapore's sand. But with such fractious and — the truth that dare not speaks its name in Singaporean diplomacy — mostly Muslim neighbours such as Malaysia and Indonesia, sometimes Singapore's leaders seem to want nothing more than to attach tugboats to their mostly Chinese-inhabited dot and tow it northwards, anchoring somewhere off the coast of China equidistant from Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, where Asia's economic action really lives.

Take tetchy Thailand. Last year Singapore Inc, in the form of government-owned investment agency Temasek, bought the then Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra out of his family's telecom-to-TV conglomerate Shin Corp. The $US4 billion deal, the biggest in Thai history, was also the biggest done while Madame Ho Ching has run Temasek. She is the wife of Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, eldest son of Lee Kuan Yew, who undiplomatically dubbed Australians Asia's "white trash".

The Shin transaction was anything but transparent. Thaksin and his family did not pay their due taxes. Outraged Thais hit the streets in protest — perhaps looking for an excuse to do so. Temasek's deal-making suddenly plunged Singapore's ASEAN neighbour into turmoil and by last September, Thaksin was toppled in a bloodless military coup.

Shin has been a major misjudgment for Temasek, an $US80 billion enterprise that frequently compliments itself on its investment perspicacity.

It ultimately controls major assets around the region, such as Optus in Australia.

What with Singapore's sandfight with Indonesia, Temasek's blow-up, and perpetually awkward cross-causeway relations with Malaysia, perhaps Singapore can ask Rangoon's generals to supply the tow ropes and cheap labour for that longed-for long haul north.

Eric Ellis is South-East Asia correspondent of Fortune magazine.

i think those SEA countries just need to wake up.

they are big countries but small in the brain.
malaysia, thailand, indonesia...

i think as a small country we need to be self sufficient and with intergrity and dignity

Well, it's hard to tell what the author is really upset about. Is he upset that his rent is out of control, or that he cannot fathom why Singapore is booming all around him, or is this simply Aussie envy of Singapore? He says the boom is built on illicit money from Indonesia. But wouldn't you have to say the same of London? It's boom too has been built on questionable money from Russia, the Arab countries, and elsewhere. So what else is new?

Maybe he is fren of Shorvin the infamous who ran away.

You have to understand how the Australian media work. Their primary modus operandi is to make Australians feel good by suggesting that everyone else got where they are by cheating. Ignore it --- most Australians do.

They say: "Find me a buyer like the one in Tiong Bahru who has a lot of cash."

AsiaOne
19 June 2007

Cashing in on the current property boom, some hopeful HDB flat owners are asking housing agents to find buyers for their homes at up to $150,000 above valuation.

Housing agents reported an island-wide hike yesterday, as sellers raised their asking prices after it was reported that two flats in Tiong Bahru flat were sold for $675,000 and a record $720,000.

These are levels that have not been seen since 1996, when an executive maisonette in Bishan was sold for $840,000.

Analysts attribute the current level of expectation to optimistic sellers hoping for a windfall from cash-rich buyers who have been involved in en bloc sales. These potential buyers tend to be retirees and in need of a place quickly.

Dennis Wee Properties director Chris Koh told The Straits Times that up to 20% of recent HDB deals handled by his agency were settled in cash, compared to when loans were the norm.

Property experts polled downplayed the current state of affairs, saying that this is an initial euphoria which would eventually subside.

But if the en bloc frenzy continues, PropNex's chief executive Mohamed Ismail thinks more HDB records could be set, though prices are unlikely to rise by more than 5-7%.

So, if you're looking to cash in on the property craze, what are the factors that will help boost your chances of landing a plum deal?

According to property experts, units that are more likely to fetch high prices tend to be fairly new, well-renovated, located on high floors, and in popular estates like Tiong Bahru and Queenstown.

A sampling of sky-high asking prices:
Bishan, Toa Payoh: Asking for $70,000-$120,000 above valuation.
Tiong Bahru, Lavender: Asking for $100,000-$150,000 above valuation.
Clementi: Asking for up to $150,000 above valuation.
Bedok, Tampines: Asking for $20,000 - $50,000 above valuation.
Jurong West, Sengkang, Ponggol, Woodlands: Asking for up to $5,000 above valuation.

They say: "Find me a buyer like the one in Tiong Bahru who has a lot of cash."


So it's the HDB at Tiong Bahru hike the price of Meraprime and the Twin Regency, instead of the other way round ? :lol:

Hello everyone, I am new to this forum and I find it so interesting. I am a Singaporean living in HK and my husband and I bought One Amber (17th flr, 1701sq ft at S$765 psf) and Urbana(33rd Flr, 1313 sq ft at S$1356 psf). We were just wondering when is the best time to sell these properties as we think the property bubble in S'pore might burst soon and we don't want to be caught. Would like to hear the views from the experts in this forum.
i believe you have sold your unit right?:) at $1700psf?

Spore Govt may announce lending curbs to cool property speculative activity

Singapore likely to introduce curbs soon to cool property market - Citigroup

SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - As soaring property demand begins to generate a lending boom, the Singapore government may soon step in to cool speculative activity in the housing sector by introducing lending curbs, Citigroup economistChua Hak Bin said in a note Tuesday.

"The probability that the government may introduce curbs to cool speculation or limit banks' property-related exposure is increasing," Chua said.
"Recent measures, including bringing forward stamp duty and releasing more
land, has had limited impact (on soaring property prices)," the economist said.
Given strong demand for upscale housing, some developers have managed to sell high-end residential condominium units at record prices of over 4,000 sgd per square foot.

Chua said property acquisitions by developers, construction companies and
investment holding companies have been fueling rapid loan growth in Singapore, with loans extended to building and construction companies surging 27 pct year-on-year in April.
In contrast, mortgage loans had risen a modest 5 pct in April compared to the
year before.
Chua said one possible reason why mortgage loan growth has been lagging lending growth in general is because many homebuyers have been availing of the deferred payment scheme offered by property developers, thereby shifting the burden of financing to developers and construction companies.
Chua said the government may introduce a policy to tighten the deferred payment schemes offered by developers to property buyers as part of its anti-speculative measures.
"Any measure will likely be calibrated and not as draconian as those (issued)
in 1996, which included a capital gains tax, Central Provident Fund
restrictions, and restrictions on foreigners' borrowing and purchases," Chua
said.

The news came from Citigroup... not necessary true....but as the mandarin idiom said, " if there's smoke, there's fire "....

I believe it will affect the followings but not necessary crippled the property growth.

1. Cool down the enbloc fever. Developers will find it more difficult to finance their enbloc purchase at the ever unrealistic growing asking price by the greedy owners.

2. MAS is likely to impose banks to apply stricter credit ratings and the debt/equities ratio on developers, construction and financial holdings. Developers will not offer deferred payment in future new launches as banks are unlikely to lend too much to them.

3. Short-Mid term speculators that can afford upfront 10-20% payment must either borrow from bank before the first progressive payments, or sell the property before the payments comes. This will get rid the majority of short term speculators if they don't have the financial holding power.

I don't believe it will affect existing sold properties as majority of developers don't allow transferring the deferred payment from 1st owner to subsale owners. Subsale owners have to pay cash or borrow from the banks anyway before they do the purchase.

It will not affect high profile prime developments, as the people who can afford to pay progressive payment are likely to have the financial holding power.

I'm not sure though how much it will affect the mass market. When a mass market development is launch in future, if fewer takers or it takes longer to sell due to less speculators, the developers may not be able to launch prices at too high. Those adjacent properties that had been sold at much higher prices before the curb policy may have downward price pressure in order to subsale.

If the government introduces new curbs, demand for property could dampen and this could cause sites on the confirmed list to fetch lower prices. To avoid this situation, I think the government will wait to see what prices the confirmed list's sites fetch before considering any further action.

If there's limit, it'll probably be like a limit of say, 40%, of their total lending/assets. How the banks apply it will be up to them (eg maybe lower valuations or more likely, maybe days of 10-20% downpayment over ?

Believe HKMA did this in 1997 (40% or something thou i believe was more of a recommendation). Not sure if these measures will have any effect (they normally don't) - like it China.

If the government introduces new curbs, demand for property could dampen and this could cause sites on the confirmed list to fetch lower prices. To avoid this situation, I think the government will wait to see what prices the confirmed list's sites fetch before considering any further action.

Probably the commercial sites should not be affected in this case ?

Property prices at "higer end" but govt "not too worried": SM Goh
Prices are still affordable for middle-income and HDB heartlanders, he says .


There we have it.
PM
MM
SM
Mah.
All concur.:cheers:

SM Goh: Property Prices At "Higher End" But Government "Not Too Worried"

Prices are still affordable for middle-income and HDB heartlanders, he says
(Edited transcript of SM Goh's interview with CNBC)
Irene Ngoo
AsiaOne
6 July 2007

Property prices in Singapore are at the "higher end" now but this does not mean a property bubble forming, said Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong.

While he noted that the property market is active, he said the government is "not too worried" and is watching the property market closely.

Mr Goh said this in an interview with CNBC, when he was asked if a property bubble seems to be forming in Singapore.

"Property bubble is short-term. I think the property market is active, but at this stage, we are not too worried. The prices are at the higher end. We watch very closely," he said in the interview, aired on CNBC today.

"Prices for the middle-income and for the HDB heartlanders … are still quite affordable for Singaporeans in general. So, my worry will be where do we go from here? It's a longer-term worry. It's not a short-term worry. It comes back to my point about talent. For Singapore to grow, you need talent, talent from Singaporeans or within Singapore and talent from outside."

Private home prices have shot up across the board in Singapore because of the property boom, robust economy and influx of foreign capital. The continuing rising trend has raised concerns that the property is getting overheated.

Estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) earlier this week show that private property is on a dramatic upswing with plenty of momentum. Prices for the April to June period rose 7.9% – the biggest jump since the third quarter in 1999, when the market staged a brief recovery before sliding into a lengthy slump. The increase comes on top of a 4.8% rise in the first three months this year.

The Senior Minister said some MNCs have complained about the rising rental because of the property boom here but they are not staying away.

Mr Goh was interviewed for a CNBC special marking the 10th anniversary of the Asian financial crisis. He was then Prime Minister of Singapore when the financial meltdown swept the region, bringing several Asian economies to their knees. Singapore was not spared either, and was forced to cut 20,000 jobs, wages and CPF contributions.

Asked if rising costs could put Singapore at risk again of another crisis, SM Goh said: "I myself do not think a financial crisis is going to happen. The stock markets in Asia, of course, are very lively. Share prices are generally at an all-time high, but the banking structure is strong. In Singapore, we are resilient and have hardly any non-performing loans which we need to worry about."

"We have separated the non-financial activities of the banks from the financial activities. Banks running hotels, for example, and other non-financial activities have been taken out. So, in Singapore, we are less concerned about another financial crisis. But in the region, I think we need to watch that. But generally, my sense is that the banking industry in the region is also resilient."

SM Goh, who is chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, also made this point in an earlier interview yesterday with the BBC, saying that while Singapore's buoyant stock market may suffer a correction, a financial crisis is not on the way. He also said that the government should not interfere in the stock market.

Asked again by CNBC if rising costs - not just business costs but cost of living as well - could put Singapore at a disadvantage, he said this is a worry and the government is monitoring inflation.

He added: "Costs are always a factor, but generally, you do want the standard of living of Singaporeans to go up. And a higher standard of living means more income in real terms, in the real sense. We do monitor inflation."

"Costs - we do worry. But that means you've got to move into higher value-added industries, like biomedical services and financial services, education, health and so on. We cannot be doing things which we were doing before 1997, where China and India will become much more competitive. So, costs are always important, but we are not going to allow costs to prevent us from growing. Just move into the right sector."

Has this kept any MNC from setting up base here or setting up plants here?

SM Goh said: "We are seeing quite a few of these - not so much in the manufacturing side but MNCs in the sense of international financial institutions - more wealth management, hedge funds and other such regional head offices are being set up in Singapore."

On the biggest lesson from the Asian financial crisis, Mr Goh cited having a strong financial sector as a key factor to withstand such a shock.

"We realised very much earlier that the financial industry is a global industry and, therefore, you’ve got to be more aware of what’s happening in the world and in the region, in particular. So you've got to set up, not just internally but also externally, a system of regional surveillance of the financial performances of banks outside Singapore too. In other words, it requires cooperation from other countries as well."

Just as Singapore has learnt a lesson from the financial upheaval a decade ago, he said other Asian economies are also "very much more acutely aware of the importance of bank supervision and good corporate governance."

"Our neighbours' own banking sectors - as far as you can see - are also much more resilient today than during the financial crisis or just before that."

I think it is a silence measures which already commence.

I tried to take a loan from DBS and was turn down by the DBS officers in less than a hour.

Their claim "DBS is not too keen with the business" as I am holding a few mortgages with them.

As I know the officers personally, she told me if I have gone to them 1 month earlier, DBS will continue to do my business.:)

I take the rejection as a blessing, as I am really over invest myself. A good measures by the Government.

For those who are buying a property soon, try to get your loan officers to get your "principle in approval" for your mortgages before commiting to buy. Otherwise you may lost your 5% booking fee with the developer. And for those who are cash rich, need not worry. Remember the golden rules of Banking industy? "The Bank will loan you the money as long you show them you do not need it.":)

Singapore likely to introduce curbs soon to cool property market - Citigroup

SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - As soaring property demand begins to generate a lending boom, the Singapore government may soon step in to cool speculative activity in the housing sector by introducing lending curbs, Citigroup economistChua Hak Bin said in a note Tuesday.

"The probability that the government may introduce curbs to cool speculation or limit banks' property-related exposure is increasing," Chua said.
"Recent measures, including bringing forward stamp duty and releasing more
land, has had limited impact (on soaring property prices)," the economist said.
Given strong demand for upscale housing, some developers have managed to sell high-end residential condominium units at record prices of over 4,000 sgd per square foot.

Chua said property acquisitions by developers, construction companies and
investment holding companies have been fueling rapid loan growth in Singapore, with loans extended to building and construction companies surging 27 pct year-on-year in April.
In contrast, mortgage loans had risen a modest 5 pct in April compared to the
year before.
Chua said one possible reason why mortgage loan growth has been lagging lending growth in general is because many homebuyers have been availing of the deferred payment scheme offered by property developers, thereby shifting the burden of financing to developers and construction companies.
Chua said the government may introduce a policy to tighten the deferred payment schemes offered by developers to property buyers as part of its anti-speculative measures.
"Any measure will likely be calibrated and not as draconian as those (issued)
in 1996, which included a capital gains tax, Central Provident Fund
restrictions, and restrictions on foreigners' borrowing and purchases," Chua
said.

I think it is a silence measures which already commence.

I tried to take a loan from DBS and was turn down by the DBS officers in less than a hour.

Their claim "DBS is not too keen with the business" as I am holding a few mortgages with them.



Maybe a good time to diversify internationally ??? ....

I think it is a silence measures which already commence.

I tried to take a loan from DBS and was turn down by the DBS officers in less than a hour.

Their claim "DBS is not too keen with the business" as I am holding a few mortgages with them.

As I know the officers personally, she told me if I have gone to them 1 month earlier, DBS will continue to do my business.:)

I take the rejection as a blessing, as I am really over invest myself. A good measures by the Government.

For those who are buying a property soon, try to get your loan officers to get your "principle in approval" for your mortgages before commiting to buy. Otherwise you may lost your 5% booking fee with the developer. And for those who are cash rich, need not worry. Remember the golden rules of Banking industy? "The Bank will loan you the money as long you show them you do not need it.":)

If you try another banks, does it help ?

I think they can read from the credit bureau report on your loans taken, but different banks may at their discretion lend you up to a certain limit.

I had an experience that DBS was willing to lend me 70% but UOB 80%, so I took the latter despite a 0.25% versus 0.75% for cancellation ( interest same ).

It's always advisable to get the "principle in approval" first before commiting to buy, although I knew there are many buyers that didn't borrow at all with deferred payment. If they flip before TOP, that's fine. But if market goes sour, they will have a big problem if they couldn't get sufficient loan at the time to pay at TOP.

You are smart, I took a loan with UOB and another with OCBC.:lol:

I loan 70% only.

Me smart too, but already stop buying liao.:banana:

Now just waiting for durian to ripe.:cheers:

If you try another banks, does it help ?

I think they can read from the credit bureau report on your loans taken, but different banks may at their discretion lend you up to a certain limit.

I had an experience that DBS was willing to lend me 70% but UOB 80%, so I took the latter despite a 0.25% versus 0.75% for cancellation ( interest same ).

It's always advisable to get the "principle in approval" first before commiting to buy, although I knew there are many buyers that didn't borrow at all with deferred payment. If they flip before TOP, that's fine. But if market goes sour, they will have a big problem if they couldn't get sufficient loan at the time to pay at TOP.

Singapore's Q2 GDP up 8.2% on-year
Posted: 10 July 2007 0808 hrs

SINGAPORE: Singapore's economy registered strong growth in the second quarter of 2007.

Advance estimates by the Ministry of Trade and Industry show that real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 8.2 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the second quarter, up from 6.4 per cent in the previous quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real GDP grew by 12.8 per cent following 8.5 per cent in the first quarter. - CNA/ir

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Singapore GDP up 7.7% in 2nd qtr.: gov't
Asian Economic News, July 17, 2000
SINGAPORE, July 10 Kyodo

The Singapore economy expanded 7.7% in the second quarter of this year, surpassing the growth posted for the same period last year, according to a government estimate made public Monday.

The "advance" estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) in the April to June period, released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry, exceeds most analysts expectations.

While slower than the revised 9.2% expansion posted in the first quarter of this year, it is more robust than the 6.6% in the same quarter of last year.

The manufacturing industry rose 7.8%, the ministry gauged. "The manufacturing sector continued its robust growth, boosted by the electronics and chemicals industries," it said.

The services industry rose about 6.8%, with most sectors showing "healthy growth," it said.

However, the financial services sector is estimated to have declined due largely to the high base last year while the construction sector remained sluggish.

This is the first time the ministry has released such an early indication of economic growth based on the first two months of a quarter.

Usually the ministry releases a so-called "preliminary" GDP estimate based on all three months of a quarter between seven and eight weeks after the end of the quarter.

The ministry will release the preliminary GDP estimates for the last quarter on Aug. 10.

You are smart, I took a loan with UOB and another with OCBC.:lol:

I loan 70% only.

Me smart too, but already stop buying liao.:banana:

Now just waiting for durian to ripe.:cheers:

Today there is an article about Singapore investor's resistance level is now $3000psf or some said $3300-$3600. Last year, it was still $2000psf.

My resistance level was below $2000psf, so I'm far from those level.
I got so frustrated when the few of my favourites last year launched above that level.
Some were even delayed until this year and some still not launch after more than a year talk.
I stop buying since Jan 07.

I'm hesistant to touch non-prime sites, and recently a lot had already gone above my resistance level.
Everytime the mid-to mass market sites price hike, govt. worried and comes in to interfere.

Baby you are braver than me. My resistant is $1k or lower for residencial unit.

I never bought anything above $1k psf. But some reach $2k psf liao.:lol:

I just stop buying 2 weeks ago.

I will start selling once I reach my target profit.............. You will notice it when I change my signature of the CEO of Coke whom suggested never to sell.

PS: For those who cannot find the article, it is in Business Times. 85 cents. If you do not mind waiting, the article will be publish in http://lushhome.wordpress.com/ 1-2 days later.

Today there is an article about Singapore investor's resistance level is now $3000psf or some said $3300-$3600. Last year, it was still $2000psf.

My resistance level was below $2000psf, so I'm far from those level.
I got so frustrated when the few of my favourites last year launched above that level.
Some were even delayed until this year and some still not launch after more than a year talk.
I stop buying since Jan 07.

I'm hesistant to touch non-prime sites, and recently a lot had already gone above my resistance level.
Everytime the mid-to mass market sites price hike, govt. worried and comes in to interfere.

From The Business Times:

Published July 10, 2007

Local buyers baulk at prices that's over $3,000 psf

But well heeled foreign investors may continue to set new benchmarks

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

SOME high-net-worth individuals from places as varied as Indonesia, Thailand and Russia who need to park money in Singapore may not bat an eyelid about paying record prices for condos, but resistance seems to be setting in from local investors for properties priced at more than $3,000 per square foot, according to some market watchers.

Will this clip developers' ability to constantly keep jacking up prices of new projects? Or will the Singapore luxury market evolve to a new plane, as Singapore becomes increasingly attractive as a global city, where buyers at luxury residential property launches will be predominantly foreigners?

Some foreign buyers may be more amenable to paying top prices if they find Singapore still offers them an attractive proposition.

Of late, 60 per cent of the buyers for most new high-end projects have been foreigners, but sometimes the figure is even higher. At City Developments' Cliveden at Grange Road, 90 per cent of the 38 units sold so far have gone to foreign buyers, with an average price of $3,600 per square foot.

Some industry players say there is resistance from local buyers to anything costing above $3,000 psf, although one major developer has put the resistance band higher, at $3,300 to $3,600 psf.

Despite prices of $4,635 psf for a unit at St Regis Residences and $5,100 psf for another at The Marq On Paterson Hill, 'buying at prices above $3,000 psf is still pretty selective at this point in time', reckons DTZ Debenham Tie Leung executive director Ong Choon Fah.

Just how many units developers have been selling, and for how much, will emerge soon when the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) publishes more pricing details of units sold by developers.

The URA is expected to aggregate the number of units sold by developers each month, for each project, within certain dollar-per-square-foot price ranges, as well as the average dollar psf price posted each month for each project.

This source of information, where developers report sales prices achieved directly to the URA, will provide the market with more timely information instead of having to rely on caveats, which take time to be lodged.

And then there are also buyers who have not been lodging caveats, perhaps because they intend to flip the units for a quick profit.

Lamenting the current dearth of detailed price information on prices actually achieved for launches, Colliers International director (research and consultancy) Tay Huey Ying says: 'For most projects launched since the beginning of the year, generally only an estimated 40 to 70 per cent of the total number of units reportedly sold in each project have lodged caveats thus far. Hence, sales information that is available via caveats lodged is incomplete at this point in time.

'Improving provision or publication of more timely and complete information on sale progress and their transactional prices will go a long way in improving market efficiency. Would-be home-buyers will be able to make more informed purchase decisions.'

Going by caveats lodged for primary market sales between Jan1 and June19 this year, units sold by developers in high-profile projects like Orchard Residences, St Regis Residences and Beaufort @ Nassim at prices above $3,000 psf formed the minority of transactions for the respective projects.

Sixteen of the 48 caveats lodged during the period for Orchard Residences were for prices above $3,000 psf.

For St Regis Residences, the figure was five of the 39 caveats lodged, while for Beaufort @ Nassim, the share of caveats for developer sales at prices of above $3,000 psf was four out of 13.

Of course, a different picture may well emerge when the URA's data is released.

But whether the resistance is $3,000 psf, or at the $3,300 to $3,600 psf level, the resistance being shown by local investors is very real, say industry players.

'As prices go higher, potential buyers have more and more alternatives, and may want to diversify risk, to even beyond Singapore,' Mrs Ong of DTZ reckons.

'For such investors, chances are it will not be their first or even second property. If they pay $3,000 psf for, say, a 2,000 sq ft condo, the price comes up to $6 million. For this sort of sum, they will ask: 'Where else can I put my money? A small bungalow in Singapore, a top-end condo in Malaysia, Bangkok or even Sydney?'

CB Richard Ellis executive director (residential) Joseph Tan says that from his experience, for the price of condo units costing 'anything more than $8-10 million, which could work out to say $3,500 to $4,000 psf, local buyers have the option to look at freehold landed properties in prime locations'.

However, Mrs Ong says these would not be the sort of considerations going through the minds of wealthy foreign investors who may just want to park some money in Singapore real estate to diversify their portfolio.

Mr Tan says: 'They peg local property prices to those in major financial cities. For instance, average prices of luxury homes in London are about two-and-a-half times those in Singapore. So Singapore prices still look attractive to these global investors.'

Whereas foreign buyers have accounted for no more than 60 per cent of buyers in new high-end condo launches in the past, Mr Tan believes this figure can increase further.

But some market watchers reckon developers counting on just foreigners to set benchmark prices for their projects may not necessarily find the sailing smooth.

'Some foreigners prefer to buy projects that are well supported by local investors for added assurance, since local investors would generally be considered to know their market best,' Mrs Ong reasons.

But whether developers rely predominantly on foreign investors, or a mix of Singaporean and overseas buyers, developers may still be able to achieve higher prices for luxury housing projects here, if they can offer compelling propositions on design, lifestyle and the like, market watchers reckon.

While $3,300-3,600 psf appears to be a resistance of sorts among local investors currently, the level may move higher, depending on economic growth and supply-demand dynamics, Mrs Ong adds. 'Just last year, there was resistance at the $2,000 psf level,' she recalls.

Mr Tan says: 'If Singapore continues to be attractive to foreigners and our prices look appealing to them, it is likely developers will continue to bid aggressively for prime sites.'

BEIJING, July 10 (Reuters) - China may encourage more of its 1.3 billion people to work overseas as a way of easing population pressure, a senior official said on Tuesday, adding it would not significantly alter strict family planning rules.

Yu Xuejun, spokesman for the National Population and Family Planning Commission, told a Web cast on the central government's Web site (www.gov.cn) that its job was as much about tackling these pressures as preventing new births.

"Family planning is of course not the only way to cut the population, it can only be one way," he said. "We have many means for places with a lot of people or with great population pressures, like immigration or exporting labour.

Wow if they flood Sg we got no space to walk.

If the Chinese flood into SGP, I will migrate and retire into China :banana:

Sometimes the Chinese leaders like to come up with weird ideas but not necessary effective solution to resolve root problems they encounter.

In this case, they should spent more effort and encourage more investment to develop the rural area in the wests of China if the cities cannot take more immigrants.

Do not worry, we will only take in high net worth Chinese.

Only those who can afford a $3000 psf apartment will qualified.

^^

:lol:

Influx of expats fueling Singapore housing boom


AFP, SINGAPORE
Wednesday, Jul 11, 2007,

"The owners are getting greedy. It's really a landlord's market right now."

property agent

Malaysian financial executive Ron Tan wasted no time in renewing his lease for a three-bedroom apartment in Singapore when his landlord decided to raise the monthly rent by S$300 (US$199).

"I see no point in haggling. The way the market is right now, I think my landlord is very reasonable," said Tan, who counts himself among the lucky few to escape the pain of a red hot property market.

Other foreign executives have no such luck as they find themselves hit with rents that have increased by as much as 50 percent, or more, amid a property boom in the city-state.

At the Bayshore Park condominium, popular with foreigners because of its closeness to the beach, monthly rents for a two-bedroom unit have doubled to US$2,800 from a year ago.

"The owners are getting greedy. It's really a landlord's market right now," said a property agent who wanted to be identified only as May.

Singapore is now the eighth most pricey city in Asia in terms of housing costs for expatriates, global human resources firm ECA International said.

The firm's latest survey of global accommodation costs showed rents for a three-bedroom apartment in residential areas popular with expatriates jumped 15 percent from 2005 to an average US$5,113 a month last year.

Fueling the rental boom is the huge influx of foreigners into the Southeast Asian state as the government seeks to recruit more skilled professionals to augment its local workforce.

Foreigners make up 18 percent of Singapore's 4.4 million population. The government is planning for a population of 6.5 million over the next 50 years and experts say the bulk of the additional 2 million people will come from abroad.

Singapore's robust economy is also a factor behind the current rental spike with more multinational companies (MNCs) relocating staff to the city-state, which serves as their regional headquarters, observers said.

"Basically, if we look at the causes of this, a lot of it is being driven by demand," said Lee Quane, general manager of ECA International.

"The economy in Singapore is doing very well. MNCs are expanding their operations and are bringing in more expatriates," he said.

Global property consultancy Savills expects the rental crunch to worsen with more foreigners expected to arrive as the government seeks to further entrench the city-state's status as a regional business hub.

"We expect the rental market to continue to perform well. The number of foreigners is expected to increase with the expansion of companies as well as the increasing number of new firms, especially from the financial sector," Savills said.

Despite the massive rental hikes, recruitment specialists do not expect Singapore to surrender its cost advantage over arch economic rival Hong Kong anytime soon.

The southern Chinese territory is still the world's most expensive city in which to rent a three-bedroom apartment and living costs are generally regarded as higher than in Singapore.

"Rentals have also risen in Hong Kong and it is generally accepted to be a city that has a higher cost of living versus Singapore, so the differential still exists," said Mark Ellwood, a director with recruitment firm Robert Walters.

For foreign executives or companies planning to relocate staff to the region, accommodation cost is not the only factor taken into account, Ellwood said.

"From our perspective, we are not seeing this as a reason for people to relocate either as individuals or as corporates," he said. "It's a consideration but it isn't the major driving factor and Singapore is very much an attractive city for people to live and work and for organizations to headquarter into."

Hong Kong's worsening pollution problem has also worked to Singapore's advantage, Ellwood said.

"What we are experiencing more and more is that many people, particularly with young families, would like to relocate from Hong Kong to Singapore because they perceive Singapore to be a cleaner city and they are concerned about the levels of pollution in Hong Kong especially if they have young children," he said.

Singapore growth fastest in 2 years on building boom

SINGAPORE: Singapore’s economy beat even the most optimistic forecasts, growing an annualised 12.8 percent in the second quarter, its fastest pace in two years, driven by a manufacturing rebound and soaring construction.

Economists said they expected the blistering growth will make the city-state’s government raise its 5-7 percent full-year 2007 growth forecast closer to last year’s robust rate of 7.9 percent.

“Over 7 percent should be possible and I should think they’ll raise the forecast at some stage. Maybe 6-8 percent would be more descriptive of the outlook,” said David Cohen at Action Economics.

Singapore’s stock market hit a record high after the data, while the Singapore dollar hit a two-month high, spurred by broad selling of the US dollar in Asia.

Economists said that while the surprisingly strong growth in the trade-driven economy would push up consumer prices, it was unlikely to result in a change in the central bank’s monetary policy anytime soon.

“There’s a risk of higher inflation. My view is that inflation is picking up in the second half,” said Matthew Hildebrandt at JP Morgan. “The stance would remain intact but there’s greater risk to a change,” he said, citing a recent 2 percentage point increase in sales tax, strong growth, higher property prices, and eventually wage growth. reuters