A new thread to highlight the huge positive economic changes in our country and to highlight the massive positive effect of the current BEE process.

A superb video about where south africa is and where it is going. Whilst there are many negative south africans (and those are the ones who often shout loudest and so get heard more) there are many many more south africans of all races that have the attitude shown in the video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsT57Oc2YoE&mode=related&search=

SA breeds an exploding middle class

28 January 2007
Sharda Naidoo
Comment on this: tellus@sundaytimes.co.za
Optimism pervades the country as millions haul themselves out of poverty.

In most societies in the world, it takes four to five generations for a person to rise from poverty to affluent middle-class status. In South Africa, a raft of surveys shows this is happening within a single generation.

Experts say the American dream, which has lasted for more than 100 years, is starting to wane, while the South African dream is being born.

“For the first time, we can truly say South Africans are living the brand ‘SA is alive with possibilities’,” says Mmaphuti Rankapole of the International Marketing Council (IMC).

New research by the IMC shows South Africa is an optimistic, happy and patriotic nation — despite the crime, Aids, unemployment and corruption.

According to the research, which the IMC says is representative of the population:


94% of the 3000 South Africans surveyed say they are proud to be South African;


80% believe their lives are better now than before 1994; and


89% say their lives will be better in 10 years.

This is supported by two other surveys — FutureFact and Unilever’s Black Diamonds — which paint a picture of a highly ambitious, bulging middle class that describes itself as happy and proud to be South African.

Its members feel they are in full control of their lives. Their vision is to be financially secure and run their own businesses and to be promoted on merit, not the colour of their skin.

Rankapole explains why this optimism is important for class mobility.

“If South Africans feel good about the country, then it makes them work harder and they act in the interests in the country.

“This gives us a competitive edge when we’re marketing SA to overseas investors as a land of unlimited business opportunity. Investment translates to economic growth, which means more opportunities, more jobs, and better socioeconomic conditions. All these help people to be class-mobile.”

Education is seen as one of the main drivers of class mobility. In 1980, more than a quarter of the adult population was illiterate — but 2006 boasted an illiteracy rate of only 4%.

The number of matriculants grew from 4.1 million adults in 1996 to 7.6million in 2006. The number of people getting a tertiary education has grown 57% since 1996.

The FutureFact survey of class mobility shows that one third of respondents believe they are in a higher class than their parents were. Nearly half of the population say they fall into the middle class, but only a quarter regarded their parents as middle class.

Jos Kuper of FutureFact explains: “They see there has been huge progress economically, and they see an abundance of opportunities and facilities available to them. They are also more educated and their income levels have risen over and above inflation.”

FutureFact is based on a random sample of 2588 adults, aged 16 and up, living across South Africa. It excludes deep rural areas and community sizes of less than 500.

Of that sample, 45% see themselves as middle class, 31% working or lower class, 12% upper middle class and 2% upper class. The remaining 10% weren’t sure of their status.



Importantly, the middle class are seen as the “movers and shakers” of class mobility. There is a push towards that group from the working class, and then a fast shift from there into the upper-middle or upper class. Highlights of the FutureFact survey show that:


The biggest spike in class mobility is in Mpumalanga (37%) and the Free State (36%) because of their very poor past;


The self-described upper- middle or upper class consists of 41% Africans, 42% whites, 8% Indians and 9% coloureds ;


The burgeoning middle class is 58% African, 13% coloured, 6% Indian and 23% white. The working or lower class is dominated by Africans (73%), followed by coloureds (16%), whites (10%) and Indians 1%;


The income gap is diminishing. In 1994 the average monthly household income was R2435; last year it was R5007 (not adjusted for inflation), according to All Media Product Survey figures. In 1996 the average white household income of whites was R7525 compared with blacks’ R1254. By 2006 the gap had closed slightly, with white households earning R13703 and blacks R3675;


53% believe their standard of living is better than that of their parents when they were that age, and 60% of parents said their children’s standard of living would be better; and


English is seen as having status, and will become the common language.

According to FutureFact, Indians are the most mobile race from the middle class into the upper class. This is because they see themselves as belonging in the new democracy and they are taking advantage of opportunities.

Africans are the most mobile out of the working class into the middle class. Affirmative action and black economic empowerment have created more opportunities for them. In addition, they now have better facilities, better education, better jobs and more movement across geographic lines.

Whites are showing virtually zero mobility. “Those that are adjusting to the new realities and enjoying the multicultural identity are making use of their entrepreneurial skills to participate in the democratic society,” says Kuper.

Coloureds are showing signs of more upward mobility, but are still lagging behind Indians. The income of coloured households more than doubled between 1996 and 2004. In terms of per capita incomes, this race group has shown the fastest increase.

However, the South African Institute of Race Relations notes that the coloured population is still the second most poverty- stricken group after Africans.



A decade ago, six in 10 of the top 20% of South Africa’s income-earners were white. In 2006 there are equal numbers of blacks and whites.

The SA Institute of Race Relations says the racially representative middle class is “overwhelmingly” positive. “South Africa’s struggle for unity is becoming increasingly defined by wealth or class considerations rather than purely racial ones.”

Futurists paint a picture of health by 2014

28 January 2007
Sharda Naidoo

Picture this: by 2014, South Africa’s crime rate will plummet , affirmative action won’t exist, townships will become suburbs, and more than 50% of the adult population will own a business.

This is the scenario painted by futurists and the country’s planners on what South Africa will look like in seven years when voters go to the polls for its fifth democratic general elections.

They predict SA will be dominated by a wealthier, much more optimistic, patriotic middle class .

The working class will shift into middle-class status . They will live in suburbs, have state-of-the-art appliances , communicate in English, and have professional jobs or own a business.

As economics starts to take centre stage over politics, townships will be transformed into suburbs.

Futurist Guy Lundy foresees Soweto, for example, becoming a wealthy suburb competing with the likes of Sandton .

“This is already starting to happen. Retailers and amenities are moving into the townships. And, if government sticks to its end of getting rid of informal settlements, there’s won’t be such a distinction between squatters and urban areas ,” says Lundy.

Speaking about jobs, he says, “Optimism shows people are looking for opportunities. By 2014, we will have a more entrepreneurial society, with more than half of the adult population starting their own business.”

The planners predict that the gentrification of cities will gain momentum. Cities will expand and become huge metropolises. Johannesburg could have a population of 13 million .

Johan Snyman, director of Medium-Term Forecasting Associates, says there will be a concerted effort by councils and provinces to increase lower income groups’ access to the city.

The experts also predict the demise of affirmative action. The debate for these policies will lose traction, spurred by the “born-free” population (those born after 1994), who will come into their 20s.

Crime is forecast to drop . “ As the working class and middle class work to improve their self-image and being, crime will come down ,” says Snyman.

I’m proud of where we’re going’

28 January 2007
Bobby Jordan


Upbeat: Aleit Swanepoel’s future looks bright
Related Content
From builder to wealthy oil baron
King of the hill, top of the heap
Self-made businessman Aleit Swanepoel insists that he is not upper class. “Maybe upper-middle, no more than that,” said the 32-year-old chief executive of the Aleit Group in Stellenbosch, which churns R25-million through the South African economy every year.

He is the brains behind a fast-growing cluster of companies specialising in event management in the Cape winelands. His family has been in South Africa for longer than anybody can remember, and their roots run deep in the Prince Albert region of the Karoo.


After school he worked as a waiter in the Helderberg area, spent time overseas and returned to study through the University of South Africa while working full-time. Before long he was appointed as functions and events manager for wine and spirits group Distell.

His sister, Lorette, runs her own beauty salon in Somerset West, and has married into a French/Afrikaans family.

Lorette’s children speak English at home, reflecting a trend towards bilingualism among Afrikaners.

“English is the language spoken all over the world and one should equip children to go anywhere,” said Aleit’s mother, estate agent Cliffie Swanepoel.

Contrary to the stereotype of bitter white Afrikaners bemoaning changes in the new South Africa, the Swanepoel family feel things have never been better.

“South Africa has showed the world how to do things. It’s a wonderful country.

“I said to my kids that when they go to school people will say ‘Where will white people get work?’ My reply was always that they will have work because it’s your attitude that counts,” said Cliffie.

Aleit is equally upbeat, pointing out that old class and race barriers have far less meaning for his generation than for his grandparents’ generation, which is symptomatic of a more integrated society.

His upmarket clients reflect the full racial spectrum, an indication of the increasing economic mobility of all races.


The Swanepoel story highlights a number of prominent trends revealed in the FutureFact 2006 survey.

Many white families surveyed remained optimistic about South Africa and considered themselves to be relatively affluent — middle, upper-middle or upper class.

However, while white families generally showed little class mobility, the new-generation Swanepoel family had definitely moved up an income bracket or two — and possibly a class bracket too.

FutureFact researcher Debbie Milne said: “On average, white people don’t have a poverty-stricken background and do not perceive themselves to be that [class] mobile. There is still a perception that they’re almost on a par with their parents.”

However, the million-rand view from the leafy old quarter of Stellenbosch, where Aleit works, suggests even the privileged classes may be on the up.

“I’m proud of where we’re going. People must get off their high horses and look at the positive side of things,” said Aleit.

The fact that 13 years into independence more than two-thirds of white South Africans remain in the country is proof that South Africa is alive with possibility. In every other African country, less than a decade into independence (Zimbabwe included) most of the non-black population fled for the exits. South Africa remains multi-racial, and this should say a lot.

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Great thread, Mike 2005! Strong middle class are the backbone of every society!

In every other African country, less than a decade into independence (Zimbabwe included) most of the non-black population fled for the exits.

HirakataShi, ..... most nations that got independent experienced disastrous wars that tore countries apart especially in Southern Africa (Angola and Mozambique), one shouldn´t forget that. South Africa never experienced any dreadful war, no destruction or no selfish leaders (in the case of Zimbabwe). Mandela was SA´s angel sent from heaven. The fact that SA is a peaceful and non-destroyed and modern society is chiefly due to Mandela´s more than wise leadership and merits. :)

Picture this: by 2014, South Africa’s crime rate will plummet , affirmative action won’t exist, townships will become suburbs, and more than 50% of the adult population will own a business.


Mike i'm positive about south africa, but this statement is totally and utterly a pipedream and a wish and not nearly the likely reality. Its easy to dream, but action needs to be seen. Denial about crime and the like (which gov loves) wont help. I want to see the dream become reality, but 7 years? come on lets be realistic, work hard, gov actually listen to the people and then get there.

Largely depends on how quickly the wealth of the middle class spreads to the general population. A larger middle class = higher consumption (especially in a country like South Africa where people do not seem to understand the concept of saving money) and investment. If a growing middle class spurs continual annual increases in retail spending and residential construction then more people who live in the townships will be able to find work in retail, home building and construction. But I agree, this would take longer than 7 years.

Mike: I didnt write the article: I was just posting a particular opinion piece from the sunday times.

I agree that crime will not cease to exist by then BUT the next set of ANC leadersd after Mbeki Im sure will tackle the problem. People said we could never sort out the economy and we did so Im sure that crime can be brought under controll with the right leadership. The fact that the right leadersip on crime is not in the union buildings now does not mean it never will be.

As for AA it is becoming less and less of a factor as the skills shortage bites: a skilled accountant would be hired by PWC what ever race they are and in banking etc race is never the issue as we all have to compete for the same scarce skills. The same is becoming true in engineering now too.

As for the township thing: the new development in durbs done by moreland and all the things going in soweto show that in 20 years or so the face of townships will be transformed as the first few township projects we are seeing now will lead to many others as the private sector realises that the rtownships are not a no-go area.

^^ i dont doubt that it will happen....in time. I just think some people tend to think its wham bam thank you mam situation and that miracles can happen in a short space of time. We need a good 15 years to make a big dent in the current situation

I totally agree that things will take time:possibly 20 years or so but the great thing is that we are on track for such change. But we all need to work hard and be patient in order to achieve it.

my opinion is that i belive it will all come right, with a strong economy and bulging black middle class it can only get better, however time is the factor at play.
I belive the current ledership generation needs to go and take their culture of entitlement and liberation fighter mentality and let the new generation of beurocrat come throught the ranks. The olders ANC guirella ledershipss have missed a good part of their life in Sa ie in excile and i really dont belive they are entitled to be the leadership because they were in exile. it seems giovernment is a old boys exile club and they are not in touch with the population. A classic example is Thabos comment that crime is not an issue , and he says this with 10 body gaurdsa round him.
Read when mandela goes by lester venter and it is so well thought out

Mike that youtube video was is powerful...god bless south africa!

People talk about entitlement when they are in a position of privilege, meaning they got to where they are mainly because they were and still are part of a privileged few. Affirmative action is everywhere but people only complain when others get the benefits. If your uncle or dad's friend has a business or connections, they can help get you a job but that is not called affirmative action.
When the privileged population realize that their fate is tied to the majority, then progress will be made. If you look at most of the pictures of the good areas in Durban etc, you see only white people and considering the fact that black people are the majority, it shows that nothing has really changed economically. Blacks can not afford to go to some of the more affluent areas.
I only brought this up because affirmative action seems to be a major concern for the white population but I think that the reality in SA as in the USA, connections and skin colour make a major difference in who gets hired and when people admit that this is going on the real change will happen.
I watched a show on USA TV where 2 people one white another black when to an employment agency with hidden cameras, the black woman had a masters and better grades and the white woman had a BS and was working on her masters, the black girl got no referrals while the white girl got multiple job opportunities. This was on 20/20 a major show in the US. This issues have to be addressed to make the country work for everyone and saying that the ANC leaders do not deserve the position they hold is basically stating that the people who voted for them are ignorant. President Mbeki and the rest did not go to exile by choice, they left the country because they were forced to, they would have had the same fate as Biko if they stayed so know your facts before you make your racist comments.

so what have i said that is recist? People like you piss me off cos every thing you dont like you call recist no matter the background, So maybe you get youre facts straight first too. for the record, I was born and schooled in Sa at a liberal school in the 70s and 80s ie I went to one of the few multi racial schools in the country, I have grown up in a very liberal household (maybe cos my parents were from Europe)and had many non-white friends as a 70s kid and still have some of them as friends nearly 30 years later. My mother worked 2 jobs to support me and I workd shit end jobs to save to pay my own way through technikon ie no hand outs or help.
So tell me how am I racist when I see what i see and belive what I belive. Its my opinion and Im entitled to it.
As far as im concerned you are the bigot and recist here not us

Africanman - so easy to call others rascist - without paying any attention to your own ideology...

Perhaps i would dare to say that africanman shouldn't have called SA BOY a racist. That was not called for. However, as a black person myself, i do identify with some of the points he raises. I have struggled to work with a lot of white people despite being qualified, knowledgeable and experienced in what i do, almost always having to prove myself 5 times more than any other white person with the same or even less qualifications or experience as me. Its not easy being a black person in the South African corporate environment. And you won't know it if you are not experiencing it. Personally, i think AA, is a desirable policy because there is no way white corporate South Africa would just transform on its own. A case in point which really for me demonstrates this well, is the famous resistance to transform the all white male board of directors of SASOL and BARLOWORLD, despite PUBLIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION's (a 15%+ shareholder in these companies) recommending a black director to be appointed to the board. By the way PIC pointed out the fact that of the biggest 10 companies on the JSE, only 3 directors were black from a total 33 executive directors. And they are all from MTN. So even with BEE, AA and what not, we still have little transformation especially where it matters the most. Most of the transformation is happening in the less important areas of these companies like kitchen, cleaners, human resources, messengers etc.

Believe it or not, the SA corporate landscape still continues to be an old white boy's network. The economic landscape continues to be largely skewed in favour of whites and that is why when you go to places like Cape Town, the entire place is lilly white. Just to make sure my point get across, most black people i know are not asking for handouts. Many black people who live in SA today understands that there is no entitlements, no hand outs and every one has to work hard in order to succeed (except for the corrupt ANC connected ones, and they are a small clique). All we are asking for is a platform where my skin colour is not a major deciding factor or is not used to prejudice me. I have worked for an investment bank in Sandton, several top IT companies and i know what i am talking about. The ANC has made a lot of blunders, but for someone black like me, its our best hope. There are worrying aspects about the ANC government such as corruption, crime and its handling of the health crisis, but overall they represent a future that most black people have never dreamt of before, and this is why most of us continue to have a soft spot for the ANC. I do believe that more and more black people are becoming more vocal on these issues against the ANC.

well written mate, i applaude your honesty. I come from tyhe school of though t at all are equal no matter skin colour, religion, sexual persuation, political preference etc as long as merit is also a gauge . I still find it unacceptable that the examples you have bioth mentioned about less qualified white candidates getting positions over better qualified non -whites is ludicrus and increably narrow minded. One must remember that SA is a African country in Africa and as such should be looking at the continet to do business so excluding non-whites is both niave and commercially stupid as well as being illegal.
I belive that the ANC HAD good ideals and values but as a famous man once said "Absolut power corrupts absolutly"

I agree that AA is required to some extent to force change. However one thing that concerns me is that it takes many years of experience to produce a properly groomed senior executive or professional. Its not just a question of getting a secretary and Mercedes.

You cant just "fast-track" someone with little or no experience. They certainly wont have the technical skills or people skills and will have no credibility with people s/he has gone past. Without a doubt they will screw up repeatedly (unless they choose to do no work to avoid this) and make the whole AA system look bad. This might result in other, perfectly competant black snr professionals and execs being routinely considered window dressing.

Surely the best option is to force the system open at graduate level and give everyone an equal shot at moving up. If, after a while, there seems to be a ceiling, different action can be taken. Remember that 99.99% of whites are not snr execs either.

i wish this talk about blacks/whites/indians/coloureds etc could be abolished on this forum.its a construction forum.

secondly afroman have you posted anything on construction?if not, i suggest you create a political forum on the internet somewhere away from this skyscraper forum so that you can divulge your opinions there. Coz bud, i dont actually want to read what u have to say, unless its about construction etc..
But in the united states of WHATEVA! and lets leave it at that

fair enough and point taken

http://www.economist.com/world/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8776404

The long journey of a young democracy

Africa's richest country, not yet free of demons, is facing a year of decision

THE township of Soweto, Johannesburg's largest, was once a byword for violence and black deprivation. Look at it now. In the Diepkloof neighbourhood, shiny new cars are parked next to elegant houses protected by security systems. Shopping malls are planned, banks have opened and tourists are coming. New bars and restaurants stay open all night, drawing in the rich blacks who now live, during the week, in quiet suburbs of Johannesburg that used to be all-white.

Even the poorest corners of South Africa now look better. Roads are being paved. People who were left in the dark and cold by the apartheid regime, which ended in 1994, now have lights, a roof over their heads and access to fresh water. Flush toilets are replacing buckets. Black South Africans are pushing up property prices and propelling the economy in general; black economic empowerment, brought in to redress the injustices of apartheid, has spurred the creation of a small but wealthy black business elite.

The economy is now growing steadily, at almost 5% last year; inflation has been tamed; investment is looking up; trade has been liberalised; and public debt has been cut by half since 1999. In his budget last week Trevor Manuel, the finance minister, announced a surplus for the first time in history. Another is expected in the coming year. A whopping 2 trillion rand ($285 billion) will be spent in the next three years, mainly on social services and infrastructure, and a social security system will be set up, all being well, by 2010.

South Africa now has an efficient constitutional court, a free press and active watchdogs—from a vocal (if small) political opposition to a crowd of think-tanks, campaigning groups and civic organisations. Flushed with virtue, the country that used to be an international pariah has become a mediator of conflicts in such cockpits as Burundi and Congo. President Thabo Mbeki was a driving force behind the creation of the African Union and the New Partnership for Africa's Development, which (if only it were brave enough to challenge Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe) is meant to foster an African renaissance.

The country's influence extends beyond politics. Large South African companies, once corralled by international sanctions, have turned into proper multinationals. South Africa, which has 6% of sub-Saharan Africa's people but accounts for more than a third of its GDP, has a diversified economy and first-world financial services. Nigeria's economy, the next-largest in sub-Saharan Africa, is three times smaller.

The reaction to Mr Mbeki's state-of-the-nation address last month, however, was not as upbeat as all that. This is a young, vulnerable democracy, and democratic ways still need to grow much deeper roots. The next general election is in 2009, but much of the country's future will be decided this year: the ruling African National Congress (ANC) will thrash out policies in June and almost certainly choose its next leader in December.

A good economic performance has failed to make much difference to the lives of millions of South Africans. Although half a million jobs are being created every year, unemployment remains stubbornly high at 25%—or, on a broader definition, close to 40%. Almost half the population are poor; around a quarter get government handouts. The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the Communist Party, the ANC's allies, argue that the government's economic policy has been far too business-friendly.

The government has also come under fire both at home and abroad for its catastrophic handling of HIV/AIDS. The virus now infects 5.5m people, affects many millions more and kills close to 1,000 people every day. Failure to see disaster coming in the mid-1990s was later compounded by Mr Mbeki's blinkered views of the disease—and he still cannot bring himself to say that HIV causes AIDS. The health minister, Manto Tshabalala-Msimang—a fan of beetroot, garlic and traditional medicine—was temporarily replaced this week as a strange lung infection confined her once again to hospital. She too has been attacked for giving muddled advice about anti-retroviral drugs.

Under much pressure, the government has now made anti-retrovirals available to around 250,000 people. Although campaigners argue that this roll-out is far too slow, two people—the dynamic deputy president, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, and the straight-talking deputy health minister, Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge, are breathing new life into the official response. Activists and the government talk to each other these days, though new AIDS infections show little sign of abating.

Crime also remains a serious worry. In Soweto recently Thato Radebe, a 14-year-old schoolgirl, was raped, stabbed and stoned to death near her home. Her body was found in the veld with condoms, bottles and sticks around it; the whole community was shocked. Ever more government money is being thrown at crimefighting, to little effect. Though official numbers, now almost a year old, show a slow improvement in most crime rates, violent crime remains among the worst in the world, with more than 50 people killed every day and a serious assault every two minutes. Armed robberies have spiked dramatically over the past year.

The government's generally respectable policies, backed by a plump budget, are often defeated by weaknesses in the civil service. It inherited a fragmented administration whose main purpose was to deliver superior public services to the white minority, while keeping other South Africans under the apartheid boot. The democratic government tried to create a unified, efficient bureaucracy that would reflect the new political dispensation. In the process, many experienced white civil servants left or were pushed out.

This has changed the face of the administration, but severely hurt its ability to deliver at every level. Ministries, hospitals and schools are struggling to hire enough skilled people; many prefer the better salaries and working conditions of the private sector, or are going abroad. Municipalities, half of which are in serious trouble, are finding it harder to deliver basic services, let alone to expand provision of water, sanitation and electricity.

Angry demonstrations last year made it clear that the poor are frustrated. The left wants a change of economic direction and more government intervention, and to some extent this is occurring. A plan to accelerate economic growth and share wealth was announced last year. The government and various state-owned enterprises have embarked on a programme to spruce up infrastructure, not least in time for the football World Cup in 2010 for which South Africa, to its delight, is host nation. The final will be played in Soccer City on the outskirts of Soweto, where the country's biggest stadium is being rebuilt and roofed to take the crowds.

The real ticket out of poverty, however, is education. One of the worst legacies of apartheid has been inferior schooling for South Africa's black majority. Plenty of government money has been pumped in, but with slim results. Although enrolment is up, the schools fall far short of what is needed. One international survey ranked South Africa last of 45 countries in science scores, behind Ghana and Botswana.
Power tends to corrupt

The government's frustration is evident in the way it handles criticism. Critics are often denounced as racists or “coconuts”—black on the outside but white on the inside. People who “whinge” about crime are told that they should leave the country; those who do leave are called traitors. Debate feels more stifled than a decade ago.

The increasing centralisation of power is also disturbing. The president—who leads both the country and the ANC—now chooses not only his own ministers, but also provincial premiers and mayors of large cities where the ANC has won a majority of the votes. That used to be the job of the local party. Parliament needs to put on some muscle to become a better check on the executive. As it is, state institutions risk becoming extensions of the ruling party. Political pressures on the South African Broadcasting Corporation are undermining its independence.

Fighting within the ANC may also be weakening institutions. The National Intelligence Agency has been racked by a scandal involving unauthorised surveillance and allegedly fake e-mails suggesting a political conspiracy to prevent Jacob Zuma, the former deputy president, from getting the top job. The agency's head has lost his job but is fighting back; the whole mess smells of political dirty tricks.

Reports of conflicts of interest or outright corruption surface regularly. This shows that the country's watchdogs are alive and barking, but also that public office is too often seen as a way to get rich. Some politicians and government officials move into business with worrying speed. Black economic empowerment (BEE), which, among other things, encourages companies to hive off a slice of equity to blacks, has been accused of mainly helping a lucky, well-connected few, rather than nurturing entrepreneurs and creating jobs. Revised rules, which should spread the benefits more broadly through procurement, employment and social programmes, are at least some improvement on how things have been done in the past.

Mr Mbeki deplores what he sees as the relentless pursuit of personal enrichment. The ANC is making new rules to clarify the fuzzy line between party and government jobs on the one hand and business interests on the other. The sacking in 2005 of Mr Zuma when his financial adviser, Schabir Shaik, was convicted of fraud and corruption was generally applauded. Yet many South Africans feel that the fight against wrongdoing is not even-handed.

The main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), has largely failed to capitalise on these shortcomings. It has built its base by appealing to the white and Coloured minorities. So far, only one-tenth of its electorate is black. Until it reaches black voters, who make up 80% of South Africa's 47m people, the DA—which is to choose a new leader this year—has no prospect of coming to power.

The main opposition comes from the left-wing ranks of the ruling alliance itself. (No doubt the ANC's leaders think with horror of Zimbabwe or Zambia, where the opposition to liberation movements ultimately emerged from trade-union ranks.) The Communist Party has been making noises about running its own election campaigns. The ANC's trade-union allies have criticised the government's handling of Zimbabwe, HIV/AIDS and BEE. Both complain that they have been sidelined by Mr Mbeki's centralising rule. But for all their posturing, and despite lively rumours, neither group is likely to part company with the ANC for some time yet.

Unless the lot of the poor improves faster, pressure from the left will become ever harder to resist. Calls for a more pro-poor, pro-labour stance strike a strong chord with the party's rank and file. The battle should come to a head in June, when the ANC debates a policy platform ahead of the party elections in December. Since the party dominates South African politics—with 70% of the vote at the last general election—its next boss is more or less guaranteed to become president in 2009.
The coming leader

Disagreements over economic policy and leadership style have now crystallised around the political succession—and Mr Zuma, who remains the ANC's number two. He was cleared of rape last year, and charges of financial shenanigans were kicked out of court in September. Mr Zuma's most ardent supporters, mainly within the left-leaning ranks of the ruling alliance, maintain that these trials were political devices to prevent him from becoming South Africa's next president.

Mr Zuma's chances rest on three things: a court case, support within the ANC, and the alternatives. The National Prosecuting Authority has not ruled out reviving the corruption charges. This would kill his chances only if he is found guilty; otherwise, perceptions of victimisation would probably boost his popularity.

His standing within the party is hard to gauge. ANC leaders in KwaZulu Natal, his home province, have said he is their presidential candidate. So has the ANC Youth League. Elsewhere, it is a toss-up. Party branches—and, after them, the party's regional and provincial outfits—nominate candidates for the top ANC jobs, including the president, and also choose delegates to the party conference that elects them. As many of these branches are revived for the campaign, trench warfare is likely to erupt over the succession.

The support of the party bigwigs is also vital. Traditionally only one candidate is left by the time the presidential vote takes place at the party conference. Potential candidates are not even supposed to say they are up for the job. Recent allegations that Tokyo Sexwale, a prominent businessman and a former provincial premier, has been canvassing for support were slapped down by party leaders. Even Mr Zuma, known for his loud singing, has been rather quiet lately.

He is charismatic, charming, and can stir up a crowd—especially a Zulu crowd—like no one else. Yet many people, both inside and outside the ANC, are aghast at the thought that he might be president. The cloud of suspicion related to the fraud and corruption charges has not yet faded, and he has shown serious lapses of judgment (including believing that a quick shower could protect him from HIV infection). A pragmatist to the core—or perhaps shameless populist would be closer to it—Mr Zuma seems much cleverer at saying whatever people want to hear than at formulating a policy and sticking to it. This makes him a skilled negotiator and peacemaker, as he showed when he intervened in the early 1990s in KwaZulu Natal, then on the brink of civil war. But according to Raenette Taljaard of the Helen Suzman Foundation, a local think-tank, he would be “a malleable, pliable president”—and one who might be too inclined to endorse the interventionism the left is pleading for.

Other names are also mentioned. The party's secretary-general, Kgalema Motlanthe, is considered a potential compromise candidate, but his name has been linked—rightly or wrongly—to the trouble at the National Intelligence Agency. Cyril Ramaphosa, a former trade unionist turned businessman and a key negotiator in the democratic transition, could make a political comeback, but may not please the left. The deputy president, Ms Mlambo-Ngcuka, is mentioned; but she owes her political fortunes to Mr Mbeki, and probably does not have enough standing of her own within the party.

Lastly, not impossibly, the shrewd and technocratic Mr Mbeki might stay. The ANC leadership in the Eastern Cape has called for him to seek a third term as party leader. Mr Mbeki, who has to step down as president after two terms, may be tempted to remain in the party post, which has no time limit.
Nurturing the rainbow

Whoever he or she turns out to be, the next president will have to rebuild bridges not only within the party, but also within the country. The warm and generous feelings of Nelson Mandela's time have receded, and Mr Mbeki has failed to paint a vision to inspire South Africans of every creed and colour. Both the government and the opposition have played the race card when it suits them. Pieter Mulder, the leader of an opposition group called Freedom Front Plus, recently remarked: “We do not know each other and do not debate with each other.”

South Africa's democracy is young, and its institutions still need to be nurtured, protected and shaped. The space for debate needs to be broadened, and race relations handled with care. Racial fractures did not disappear with apartheid, and the followers of political parties can still largely be divided into black and white. Fewer Indians and Coloureds have been showing up to vote, indicating that many have not found a political home.

The astounding success of a recent song about Koos de la Rey, a famous Boer general during the war against the British, is raising many eyebrows. Some fear that the old-fashioned nationalism of the Afrikaners (whites of European descent) is raising its head again. But Tim du Plessis, the editor of an Afrikaans newspaper, argues that Afrikaners are merely migrating to a new space, between dead-end radicalism and ANC co-option. He points to a young, post-apartheid generation of Afrikaners reclaiming and reinventing their identity, unburdened by their parents' guilt.

In his candid speech last month, Mr Mbeki appealed to South Africans to help eradicate “all that is ugly and repulsive in human society”. He regretted that South Africa's ability to unite in pursuit of a “commonly defined national agenda” was still in question. But solving the problems of crime, AIDS and unemployment requires just such unity, as well as a fresh approach, and the government needs to get better at bringing everyone on board. It is with this daunting task in mind that the ANC must choose its next president.

This article sums up all that is good and bad about the new South Africa. there is a lot of hope, but much more still needs to be done. I can't help but pray that we weather the storms that lie ahead.

.its a construction forum. i dont actually want to read what u have to say, unless its about construction etc..


Well then dont visit the shebeen.

To be quite honest, there isnt nearly enough construction going on in SA to keep my interest if there wasnt some social/economic discussion. Endless updates on shopping centres and office parks and the (maybe) 10 highrise apartment blocks being built nationwide would be a little underwhelming for me, not being in the construction industry myself.

Well then dont visit the shebeen.

To be quite honest, there isnt nearly enough construction going on in SA to keep my interest if there wasnt some social/economic discussion. Endless updates on shopping centres and office parks and the (maybe) 10 highrise apartment blocks being built nationwide would be a little underwhelming for me, not being in the construction industry myself.


i agree with you but you know what i mean...

its the unnecessary heated discussions based on skin colour/race etc that im growing weary of...

Hi to All,

Please can someone among you answer me a couple of questions, is it right that SA plans to spend around $280 BILLION (220 BILLION Euros) in the next three years? If this is true, into which sectors will that money primarily be invested? Is it all public driven investment? I am perfectly aware that SA is a strong global emerging market with many technical, personal and financial ressources but 280 BILLION Dollars, that is a hell lot of money to shoulder even for a fully industrialised country in Western Europe for example (please don´t get me wrong now). I do hope that someone can give me some insight! I would truly appreciate it:)

i agree with you but you know what i mean...

its the unnecessary heated discussions based on skin colour/race etc that im growing weary of...

I agree that these types of discussions are not necessary here on SSC, but I can understand where africanman is coming from (even though I do not agree with his opinions). I spend so much time on YouTube fighting South Africans and ex-South Africans who are so bigoted that it beggars belief. After a while it starts to get to your head. Please go to YouTube and type in names like "delarey" and "mandela" and see what comes up. While we have managed to keep race off the discussion here on SSC for the most part, there are indeed individuals in South Africa - both black and white - who have an obsession with race and are interested in diving people. We must acknowledge our country's history and ackownledge that there will be crazies from South Africa and abroad who have and interest in exploiting South Africa's history for their own sinister purposes.

Hi to All,

Please can someone among you answer me a couple of questions, is it right that SA plans to spend around $280 BILLION (220 BILLION Euros) in the next three years? If this is true, into which sectors will that money primarily be invested? Is it all public driven investment? I am perfectly aware that SA is a strong global emerging market with many technical, personal and financial ressources but 280 BILLION Dollars, that is a hell lot of money to shoulder even for a fully industrialised country in Western Europe for example (please don´t get me wrong now). I do hope that someone can give me some insight! I would truly appreciate it:)


I cant remember the number that is being spent, but that number is definitely far too large. Maybe its that number in rands, although that still sounds very high.

Remember that reporters often interchange rands and other currencies in reports, just like they often mix up millions and billions.

SA cashes in on sound policies

22 February 2007

An expanding tax base, a growing economy and a decade of sound fiscal policies have given the South African government the "fiscal space" to massively increase spending on services and infrastructure.

Government spending has risen by over 9.2% a year over the past few years, and will be raised a further 7.7% a year over the next three years "as government ensures that effective programmes and promising new initiatives are funded in line with government's capacity to implement them," says Finance Minister Trevor Manuel.

Delivering his 2007/08 Budget speech in Cape Town on Wednesday, Manuel said that government revenue would come in at R475.8-billion this year - R29.5-billion more than forecast last February, and R9.4-billion more than estimated in October.

First post-1994 budget surplus
"The revised estimate for spending in 2006/07 is R470.6-billion, R3.6-billion less than the adjusted budget," Manuel told Parliament. "As a result, contrary to our initial expectations, the budget balance for 2006/07 indicates a surplus of R5-billion."

The government thus posted a budget surplus of 0.3% in 2006/07, with a surplus of 0.6% projected for 2007/08.

Tax revenues were likely to continue to grow more strongly than spending for at least another year, the minister said, and state debt service costs as a percentage of GDP were thus projected to fall from 3% in 2006/07 to 2.1% in 2009/10.

"The savings on interest that we have seen since 2001 provides an additional R33-billion a year to spend on services and infrastructure, money that we would not have had if we kept on borrowing at the level it was in 1994."

Economic growth
Manuel attributed South Africa's increased revenue to the country's expanding tax base and growing economy. SA experienced a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.9% in 2006, with growth now projected to average about 5% a year over the next three years.

Due to slightly weaker growth in the world economy and the SA's recent interest rate hikes, the economy is expected to see slighter slower growth in 2007, of 4.8%, but growth is projected to rise to 5.1% in 2008 and 5.4% in 2009.

State spending is expected to rise over this period. "We are budgeting to spend R534-billion in 2007/08, rising to R650-billion in 2009/10," Manuel said.

Despite this increase, South Africa's budget surplus is only expected to return to a deficit in 2008/09, with a moderate budget deficit of 0.1% of GDP forecast, rising to 0.4% in 2009/10.

In defence of the surplus
Manuel was unfazed by South Africa's first budget surplus in decades, saying a number of factors had contributed to it.

These included consistent efficiency of tax collection, more taxpayers as a result of a broadening tax base - about 500 000 jobs had been created each year for the past three years – and a 7% increase in household consumption in 2006.

Furthermore, the government was acting on its pledge to take out "fiscal drag," Manuel said. "Much of our economic and fiscal policy has been aimed at increasing fiscal space and reducing our vulnerability to financial instability."

Government spending had also been restricted by capacity constraints in the private as well as the public sector, Manuel said, noting that the shortage of key skills vital to infrastructure expansion programmes - such as a civil engineers with project management experience - was a worldwide phenomenon.

Spending to do with development was being addressed, he said, adding that all government departments were accommodated in the Budget, while the tax "give" to corporates and individual taxpayers was "generous".

Government spending
Government spending has risen by over 9.2% a year over the past few years, and will be raised a further 7.7% a year over the next three years "as government ensures that effective programmes and promising new initiatives are funded in line with government's capacity to implement them."

The 2007/08 Budget allocates R105.5-billion to education, R62.7-billion to health, R89.4-billion to social security and welfare, and R45.3-billion to housing and other social services.

R57.9-billion has been budgeted for police, prisons and courts, while R30.3-billion has been set aside for defence and intelligence expenditure.

Economic services - which would include measures to promote industrial development, black economic empowerment and small business development - gets R109.8-billion, while R40.1-billion goes to general administration expenditure by government.

This brings the total main Budget revenue for 2007/08 to R544.6-billion, to be divided among the three spheres of government.

National departments will receive 50.4% of available resources, while 42.4% has been allocated to the nine provinces and 7.2% to South Africa's 283 municipalities. This gives provincial and local governments almost half of South Africa's national financial resources for the financial year.

Hi to All,

Please can someone among you answer me a couple of questions, is it right that SA plans to spend around $280 BILLION (220 BILLION Euros) in the next three years? If this is true, into which sectors will that money primarily be invested? Is it all public driven investment? I am perfectly aware that SA is a strong global emerging market with many technical, personal and financial ressources but 280 BILLION Dollars, that is a hell lot of money to shoulder even for a fully industrialised country in Western Europe for example (please don´t get me wrong now). I do hope that someone can give me some insight! I would truly appreciate it:)

Marthias, what they mean by spending $280 billion in the next 3 years, they are referring to the government's budget over the next 3 years. Remember that this year its around $75 billion , 2008 is projected at $95 billion then 2009 at $110 billion. So that's where the $280 billion comes from. That is the collective government spending on services and infrastructure through all the government departments (education,health,housing,police,defence,social services etc). So in short, its not investment spending, but the total government expenditure as articulated in the Finance Minister's annual budget speech. I think it sounds cool for politicians to brandish these big numbers to confuse some people and impress the electorate about their achievements.

I read infrastructural spend over 4 years will be R472billion or $67 billion dollars...so not that monster number mentioned, but still very high

Thanks for your replies and for shedding more light on it!:)

I read infrastructural spend over 4 years will be R472billion or $67 billion dollars...so not that monster number mentioned, but still very high

Yes this number is close to the mark, and includes the massive infrastructure programmes that are being carried out by Transnet (ports and railways, R32 billion), Eskom (R60 billion),Gautrain (R25 billion), Stadiums (R8.4 billion) ACSA (R5.4 billion airports upgrades), SABC (R2 billion), Sentech (R2 billion), PBMR (R1 billion) etc. Just Eskom and Transnet's infrastructure spending over the next 4-5 years is around R160 billion (i.e. $22 billion).

yup Mike you are correct with that number. A massive amount of money that will transform many aspects of our infastructure.

Black middle class grows by 3m
Nov 14 2008 00:19

Johannesburg - A study released on Thursday by the Bureau of Market Research (BMR) at the University of South Africa (Unisa) estimates the size of South Africa's emerging black middle class as 9.3 million in 2007 from 6.3 million in 2001.

The research also shows that the growth rate of the population of the emerging black middle class aged 16 years and over was 6.5% per annum during the period 2001 - 2007.
Females contributed about half the population of the emerging black middle class aged 16 years and over in 2007.

The report says that an emerging black middle class female has two to three children by the end of her reproductive life.
The research estimates that KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and Mpumalanga (in this order) accommodate the largest proportions of South Africa's emerging black middle class.

The middle class is defined as Africans/blacks aged 16 years and over and within Living Standards Measures 5-7

^^ good news.

:banana::banana: That's great news!! Especially since the growth rate is larger than the total growth rate of the black population, which means the black middle class is increasing proportionally!! Thus more skills :cheers:

South Africa: A Black Diamond Booster
14 November 2008

Johannesburg - The growing black middle class, known as black diamonds, have provided a welcome avenue for expensive property sales.

THE term black diamond was coined in 2005 by the UCT Unilever Institute and TNS Research Surveys to describe SA's black middle class after a survey highlighted the increasing buying power of this emerging market.

In 2005 UCT Unilever reported that there were about 2-million black diamonds, which increased to 2,6-million in 2006 - a 30% increase. The survey estimated their spending power at R130bn.

Last year UCT Unilever reported an additional 30% increase in the number of black diamonds in SA, with a spending power increase of more than R50m to a total of about R180bn.

The survey attributed some of the major growth drivers to the effect of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) and employment equity, as well as preferential procurement and skills development policies.

Although this year's black diamond report recorded a slower growth rate of 15%, there was a 39% increase in spending power to R250bn.

Professor John Simpson, director of the UCT Unilever Institute, said despite dire predictions that this sector of society is facing a financial melt-down due to debt pressure, the opposite is true. In the report the black diamonds were described as recession-resilient.

Commenting on the slowdown in the number of black diamonds, Rudo Maponga, Black DiamondTM Research Manager at TNS Research Surveys, said this fall should be seen in context.

"We are working off a bigger base, which means that growth will inevitably slow in percentage terms. What's also significant it is that despite the downturn their spending power has continued to grow, which suggests that this segment is becoming wealthier."

Towards the end of last year, Mick Joyce, Pam Golding Properties' MD for the Western Cape metro region, said a characteristic of the black diamonds is their desire to accumulate assets, with property being one of the primary objectives.

He said just under half have already migrated out of the townships and into metropolitan suburbs, with key drivers being the need to be close to work, the desire for better security, and the need to be zoned for good schools for their children.

"We anticipate that this sector will keep growing at a rapid rate as new entrants move on to the ladder of increased consumption and existing members advance further up as their education levels, employment levels and therefore potential spending power, increases."

In the second quarter of this year, John Loos, property strategist for FNB, released a racial profile of suburban home buying that showed that 50% of the total buyers were white and just above 30% were black. The remaining buyers were coloureds at just below 10% and Indians at just above 10%.

Research released by Lightstone Risk Management in August indicated that over the past decade the number of black property owners has increased by more than 60%.

The Lightstone report showed that 36% of all property owners registered with the deeds office last year were black, representing a 63,4% increase from 1997 when the percentage was recorded as 22%. In addition, the report showed that 47% of new property buyers between 1997 and 2007 were black.

On the Property24.co.za website, Kura Chihota, executive director of the Leapfrog Property Group, recently warned that this data might be giving the wrong impression of transformation within the property industry.

To set the record straight, he said that many of the deals are formalisations of township leases and activity in poor rural areas, often of an RDP nature.

Perhaps a better indication of black diamonds entering the middle to upper sectors of the property market is that 10% of black homeowners have bought in estates, according to the Lightstone data.

About 2% to 4% of these bought in wealthy areas while the remainder are in what the Lightstone research team describes as comfortable areas.

The researchers defined black diamonds as middle class black South Africans only (not coloured or Indian);


Wealthy, salaried, in suitable occupations;

Well educated;

They include middle-class youths;

They acquire homes, cars and household goods;

Their aspirations exhibit confidence in themselves and their future; and

They are credit-worthy.


All Africa (http://allafrica.com/stories/200811140712.html)