Property Market Trends #2 [Archive] - Page 24

colaman

December 9th, 2008, 03:03 PM

Sorry, but I respectfully disagree with a lot of your points.

Too much money is flooding the market. This money are not own by individual like you and me. It is printed by Federal Reserve and central banks worldwide as all this Fiat currency will eventually made this disaster even greater.

Since you believe in fiat currency being the problem, do you believe in Austrian economic theory? This is by a respectable Austrian economist. Money supply is NOT increasing.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/09/is-us-printing-money-like-mad.html

I am buying insurace, (not those sold by AIG or NTUC) and I am buying big time. Close to 50% of all my money are in it right now.

I assume you mean gold since you also refer to middle eastern countries buying it. However, 50% of assets in gold is extremely risky.
There are two bubbles right now: US treasuries and gold. I certainly don't want to be 50% in gold.

The crisis will start from an event in USA pretty soon; one of the following may just ignite the fire................

1. US dollar crash. (Veru pointed out everytime he is here. Fed is printing US$30b-$50b every week.)

Crash against WHAT?
The crash against other currencies isn't coming in the short term (<12 months).
May be eventually over the next 10 years.
Because a lot of economies are doing a lot worse, especially the export dependent economies like China and the rest of Asia.
The commodities export economies are also doing just as badly.
May be the only currency that the USD will crash against in the short
term is the JPY because Japan can't really get any worse after almost
20 years of stagnation.

2. USA creditor demand payment of debt. (China etc)

Really? China cannot demand payment of the debt. You can sell the debt
if you don't like it. However, if China liquidates its US debt, RMB will go through
the roof and then its economy will be royally screwed. See:

http://mpettis.com/2008/11/would-a-trade-war-help-solve-the-problem-of-excess-capacity/

It will take at least another generation to boost domestic China demand to offset exports.
Part of the problem is that wages as a percentage of gdp has gone down a lot in the last few years.

3. Default of base metal & precious metal paper assets. (spot and future may run differently)

Spot prices are always different from futures. If you are referring to failures of delivery when futures are due? I don't know enough of that market to really comment. But the seller of the futures can always buy at spot to settle delivery. That may push spot up around delivery date, but so what?
The position also requires margin and NYMEX will backstop the losses. There is already a limit of 6000 futures and NYMEX can always increase margin requirements to reduce risk.

Can you explain what exactly is the problem?

I don't think GLD, a paper gold etf, will ever default since they are holding actual gold bars in a vault to back the value of the etf. Unless, of course, if governments confiscates gold holdings which has happened before (Roosevelt in 1933).

4. Default of Comex. (While all trades can only cash settle without physical delivery. The end of future trading)

See above.

5. Treasury bill bubble burst.

This, I believe will happen sooner or later.
But so what?
The average person is not holding 10 year or longer US govt bonds.

I think the crisis is caused by capital misallocation and mispricing of risks in the last 20 years.
Reallocating it will be painful in the short term. Repricing risks at a much higher premium (deleveraging) is painful. The pain will be dependent on how misallocated it is in your country.
The US isn't going to be most affected country.
I am slowly buying US debt-free growing market-leading companies.

Baby

December 9th, 2008, 03:21 PM

yes, Lord Veru, long run USD is toilet paper for sure....baby read too much news, up down up down...confuse as well...Lord Veru and shctaw gives good advice... So baby now vacation for rest of the month....do nothing, just have fun, go play golf, have fun at the beach, eat, & go shopping, no internet news.....come back again in 2009, and see how it turns ....merry christmas and happy new year to everyone, wishing better next year.....:wave:

So sorry but yet again (& again ) i must repeat : IN TURBULENT TIMES CASH IS KING ..... only question is what currency or mix of currencies to hold cash in as cash cross rates are also very turbulent. Agree with bro shctaw ..in the medium/longer term, the USD is toilet paper ..... WHY does the baby think the answer has changed since Dec 2007 ? It was the appropriate answer in dec 2007 & is still the appropriate answer in dec 2008 !

shctaw

December 9th, 2008, 03:31 PM

Well done, baby. We are doing the same thing. Just got back from Macau and preparing to go HK next 2 weeks.

Just lay around reading books, wait for thing to happen.

Congrat.......... you are doing great.

Dec 08 too short, why not holiday till Oct 2009. That will be perfect timing. :lol:

:)

yes, Lord Veru, long run USD is toilet paper for sure....baby read too much news, up down up down...confuse as well...Lord Veru and shctaw gives good advice... So baby now vacation for rest of the month....do nothing, just have fun, go play golf, have fun at the beach, eat, & go shopping, no internet news.....come back again in 2009, and see how it turns ....merry christmas and happy new year to everyone, wishing better next year.....:wave:

Veru

December 9th, 2008, 03:31 PM

yes, Lord Veru, long run USD is toilet paper for sure....baby read too much news, up down up down...confuse as well...Lord Veru and shctaw gives good advice... So baby now vacation for rest of the month....do nothing, just have fun, go play golf, have fun at the beach, eat, & go shopping, no internet news.....come back again in 2009, and see how it turns ....merry christmas and happy new year to everyone, wishing better next year.....:wave:

Good thinking Baby ... wait for the 2009 Q1 results ... they will be just horrible (Q2 may be even worse) ... this bear market rally will falter & dive in Q1 ... have a rest till then :)

shctaw

December 9th, 2008, 03:33 PM

Look at the timing of our posts.

We really think alike. You must let me buy you :cheers::cheers: Moet :cheers: next round we meet. No more Veru treat. All are invited. :) :cheers:

Good thinking Baby ... wait for the 2009 Q1 results ... they will be just horrible (Q2 may be even worse) ... this bear market rally will falter & dive in Q1 ... have a rest till then :)

arthur

December 9th, 2008, 04:05 PM

DPS home buyers scramble to secure loans
By Yasmine Yahya

Home buyers who bought their properties under the now-suspended deferred payment scheme, are scrambling to get a housing loan --

Mortgage consultancies say the rush is due to the sliding values of properties and tighter lending conditions.

The government stopped the deferred payment scheme, or DPS, in October last year, to deter speculation in the booming property market then.

Under the scheme offered by developers, private property buyers could make a downpayment of just 10 to 20 percent of the property price --

And pay the balance later, usually when the property was completed.

Spokesman for My Housing Loan, Goh Eck Hong, says many buyers who bought properties through the DPS, are now flocking to the mortgage consultancy to find a housing loan to finance their purchase.

My Housing Loan helps clients to choose the best mortgage loan for their needs among the many loans available on the market.

Mr Goh says the firm has seen a more-than-50-percent rise in the number of clients this quarter, as compared to the same period last year.

He says there's a reason why these clients are in a hurry to get housing loans now -- the values of the condominium units that they bought have been steadily falling.

Banks normally give financing proportionate to the purchase price or valuation, whichever is lower. So if the valuation of a property is going down and it goes below the purchase price, the buyer actually has to fork out cash in order to complete the purchase on top of whatever the bank can actually finance.

Spokesman for another mortgage consultancy firm, Housing Loan SG, Dennis Ng points out that majority of the clients who have approached his firm this year are buyers who bought properties three to five years ago.

These properties are now nearing completion and thus, the full payment amounts are due.

But with top end property prices expected to dip further, Mr Ng said buyers who bought luxury units during last year's property boom,

would also do well to get a housing loan now, even though their properties will only be completed in 2 to 3 years' time.

Whenever people purchase properties, even under deferred payment, I would advise them to get a loan as soon as they sign the agreement. Because even if they don't need the money until the property reaches completion, which may be in 2009 or 2010, by getting a loan first they lock in the approval of the loan, so they don't have to worry even if the valuations start falling.

Mr Ng adds that in these uncertain economic times, these buyers can never know if their own financial situations might change.

If their salaries are cut or if they lose their jobs, he says, it would make it even harder for them to obtain a loan.

He notes that 10 to 20 percent of the clients who have approached Housing Loan SG in the past year have failed to obtain adequate loans, or any loan at all.

W204

December 10th, 2008, 12:44 AM

We all play our game differently with the same goal of getting rich one day.

However the sign is so alarming yet a lot of us are still sleeping.

China, Russia & countries from Middle-east are all buying the isurance right now.......... that make me worry.

Hi,

would you mind sharing what `insurance' are you refering to and the thoughts from your earlier mentioned research?

Thx in advance.

hayata1972

December 10th, 2008, 03:50 AM

Parent companies of some MNCs to cut jobs; staff in S’pore may be affected

Channel NewsAsia - Wednesday, December 10, SINGAPORE:

Many multinational corporations are planning to retrench workers in Asia due to the economic downturn. Among them are Sony Electronics and Nomura, a financial services group. It’s believed staff at their Singapore offices will be affected.

Sony’s Japan headquarters announced that it is cutting 8,000 jobs worldwide as demand for consumer electronic goods has slowed significantly.

Sony said its headquarters is now reviewing its operations in each country.

While there are no specific numbers available for Singapore, what’s clear is that Sony is cutting costs.

Reports have also said that Japan’s biggest brokerage Nomura is laying off 100 people in Asia this year, including some in Singapore.

It is said the positions will be in its equity operations in places like Hong Kong and Singapore.

Nomura said it’s evaluating business opportunities and is now making strategic decisions about resource allocation and employee numbers.

Singapore’s labour movement urged Sony and Nomura to justify the headcount cut.

Halimah Yacob, Deputy Secretary—General, NTUC, said: "What these two companies will have to do is to explain the circumstances under which these retrenchments are being carried out, that they have exhausted all other possibilities and not just merely say this is the headquarters’ instruction to them."

Madam Halimah doesn’t believe the latest retrenchments will trigger a snowball effect, prompting other MNCs to do the same.

She added: "Workers do look at the kind of employers they want to work with so when employers resort to retrenchments when there’s no necessity, then obviously when times are better and they need workers they’ll find it a lot harder to get workers."

Observers said it’s not entirely surprising that companies like those in the electronics and finance industries are resorting to retrenchments. But companies are once again reminded to implement and exhaust all the tripartite guidelines first to cut costs.

Some measures under the guidelines include introducing shorter work weeks and flexible work arrangements. — CNA/vm

august5

December 10th, 2008, 04:03 AM

Hi,

would you mind sharing what `insurance' are you refering to and the thoughts from your earlier mentioned research?

Thx in advance.

Probabaly refering to gold. :nuts:

bigbird72

December 10th, 2008, 04:18 AM

bigbird72

December 10th, 2008, 04:22 AM

SpinCity

December 10th, 2008, 04:27 AM

1. US dollar crash. (Veru pointed out everytime he is here. Fed is printing US$30b-$50b every week.)
2. USA creditor demand payment of debt. (China etc)
3. Default of base metal & precious metal paper assets. (spot and future may run differently)
4. Default of Comex. (While all trades can only cash settle without physical delivery. The end of future trading)
5. Treasury bill bubble burst.

1. It is the Treasury rather than the Fed who is ultimately in charge of the money printing business. Well, some US government agency is printing money for sure, although I am not sure if the US 30B-50B per week is somewhat exaggerated. Yet to be more precise, to me it is more like a major transformation and transfer of asset rather than money printing (the money in most american's wallet and bank account is not increasing, I guess). Assets are transformed from equity to toilet paper, from senior debt to junior debt, and tranferred from one individual to another, and from private sector public. So within US, or around the globe, the monetary value of total asset is decreasing, regardless how fast the money printing machine is running, at least for the time being. That's why I don't buy those theories where TRAP/stimulus/rescue plans will cause hyper inflation, which will lead to the crash of USD eventually. besides, I also don't see any other currency(s) that has the potential to overtake USD as THE safe harbor. Unless there is a major war, hyper inflation, or the going back to the gold-based monetary system, I also don't see how Gold can be back to the glory of 1000+ per ounce any time soon. The actual consumer demand (not for hedging purpose) Of course, this is just my take and I can be deadly wrong.
2. I don't think creditors can or will demand payment. For sure they can dump their US treasury bill holdings in open market if they want, which will seriously jeopardize the US fragile economy, yet I don't see this to happen in a major way cause this do not good to either party. Hope these central bankers and treasuries can be as smart as they should be.
3. Not sure what do you mean? do you mean the base metal producers and future/forward contract holders to default at delivery? Maybe for non-public traded forward contracts, to some extend, but the current clearing systems shall be able to prevent this to happen.
4. This will be the end of modern financial system, which shall not happen unless 123 all come together at the same time. let's keep our finger cross.

BTW, lord shctaw, just curious what kind of insurance policies you are buying? I just moved my term life policies from AIG to NTUC, and you seem to imply that NTUC is not safe, neither?

bigbird72

December 10th, 2008, 04:29 AM

Can try Taiwan too.

Well done, baby. We are doing the same thing. Just got back from Macau and preparing to go HK next 2 weeks.

Just lay around reading books, wait for thing to happen.

Congrat.......... you are doing great.

Dec 08 too short, why not holiday till Oct 2009. That will be perfect timing. :lol:

:)

bigbird72

December 10th, 2008, 04:45 AM

An example of people should stick to what they know.

Zell went from real estate to media. Hero (selling Equity Office) to zero (busted Tribune). Dont know if he is bankrupt, but surely got some serious damage.

Zell's Tribune: The Canary in a Scary Mine
Sam Zell's folly will be the first in a wave of newspaper restructuring and consolidation
By Jon Fine

When I wrote a column of predictions last week, I expected some of my guesses for 2009 would never happen. Leave it to Tribune's Sam Zell, though, to make one of them wrong by filing Chapter 11 while the calendar still reads 2008.

Zell's $8.2 billion deal, which went from "we did it" to "we're bankrupt" in less than a year, illustrates the folly of buying declining businesses with billions of dollars of borrowed money. That seems an obvious and fatuous statement now, but apparently it didn't occur to Zell. (A Tribune spokesman did not respond to several calls and e-mails.) The Tribune deal left a company that generates revenue mainly from newspapers with around nine times more debt than annual cash flow, or at least what had been its annual cash flow, since that figure is declining by the month. It was extreme enough to warrant "whoas" even from media executives accustomed to doing deals involving lots of debt. Things being what they are, those executives are now too busy going fetal under their desks and licking their wounds to be playing "I told you so."

For the foreseeable future, Tribune will remain intact (apart from selling the Cubs baseball franchise). Perversely enough, it helps that there's apparently no one willing to offer knockout prices for key assets, and that those assets are declining in value so quickly no one is sure what many of them are worth. If the businesses and deal markets were robust, lenders would be salivating at the thought of breaking up the company. The sheer complexity of the bankruptcy—an $8.2 billion deal requires a lot of lenders—argues for a short-term status quo as well.

Beyond that, at this point it's hard to discern what, exactly, Tribune will be once it makes its way through the excruciatingly slow digestive process known as bankruptcy. (Its Chicago Tribune reported the company has six months to craft a plan the court accepts.) But set Tribune aside for the moment. We're entering a new phase for the oldest form of mass media and the American newspaper company, one we can call the Great Capitulation. Senior executives at different major newspaper companies tell me they expect a fresh round of mergers in 2009. But this time, they say, they won't be driven by companies eyeing one another for growth. They will be driven by big bankers seeking to ensure that the money they've lent, or at least a decent portion of it, is repaid. "You're going to see a big wave of consolidation," predicts one executive, "that will be forced on the industry." Said another, only partly in jest: "We're going to end up with one big, giant merger, facilitated in bank negotiations."

Considered in this context, Tribune's filing is but the loudest note sounded in this dirge so far. Since a restructuring will allow him to pare down debt, Zell could avoid the consolidation other companies may face. A paradox, that, though employees and former employees may choose a stronger characterization. It's likely they've lost the equity they contributed, without their consent, to Zell's deal, given how he essentially purchased Tribune with an employee stock-ownership plan he created. And those who took buyouts or were laid off now join Tribune's long line of unsecured creditors.

The collapse of the American newspaper is well-documented, but Zell's other big problem is how fast ad dollars are disappearing from local TV stations, which contributed about 21% of Tribune's revenues in 2007. Despite election- and Olympic-related spending, Tribune's TV revenues dropped 8% in the third quarter. Robert Coen, a senior vice-president at ad firm Magna who's known for his ad forecasts, just predicted that local TV ad revenues will be down 9% this year and an additional 7% next year. In case you were wondering, Coen expects newspaper ad revenue to post another double-digit decline in '09. Little relief, then, looms. Zell uses the term "perfect storm" to describe what hit his company. But many saw clouds massing on the horizon long before his deal closed. Why didn't he?

sotong77

December 10th, 2008, 04:46 AM

3. Not sure what do you mean? do you mean the base metal producers and future/forward contract holders to default at delivery? Maybe for non-public traded forward contracts, to some extend, but the current clearing systems shall be able to prevent this to happen.

Think december is a delivery month for comex. Can take delivery of silver e.g.
Read ard forums, many have been talking about it for months, hearsay is that a lot of people will take delivery of silver this month, Comex may not have enough, so might default. Perth mint has also stopped sales of some physicals from their website recently, if i remember correctly.

so if you buy precious metal, buy physicals or those listed ones that are fully backed.

MacauVillager28

December 10th, 2008, 04:46 AM

Good thinking Baby ... wait for the 2009 Q1 results ... they will be just horrible (Q2 may be even worse) ... this bear market rally will falter & dive in Q1 ... have a rest till then :)

Just getting out of my recent equity positions past few days... don't know what year end balancing will bring...
Also, using OD playing this market means willing to take profit a bit early...Have not done fantastic, only 20% past month or so as timing not perfect and poor stock picker (some more than double, but cant spot those). If not using OD may consider holding.

However, Lord Veru... not sure if things will get worse necessarily. We all know figures going to be crap stained toilet paper in Q1.

Also, doubt Euro go to parity with USD. This needs US to be good, EU much worse. My reading is still US really bad, EU going down hill. So my earlier guess on EUR1.2-1.3 still holds (tho happened much faster than thought). However, wondering if GBP eventually go nearer parity. I'm thinking most currencies (RMB, EUR, AUD vs USD) now near correct levels while mess sorts itself out.
Have thought about gold... but with everyone talking gold on CNBC, it hasn't moved much. This is surprising.

In meantime, me taking it easy, taking bets off slowly but possibly waiting to pounce again later. Still haven't booked holiday (maybe stay home) but maybe go to SG to counterbalance Lord Schtaw spending in HK, Macau !

infinity88

December 10th, 2008, 04:47 AM

Can try Taiwan too.

It is the best time to visit Australia.

I just came back from Perth. Had a great time winery-hopping in Margaret River. :cheers:

Everything is 25% cheaper compared to a quarter ago! :banana:

bigbird72

December 10th, 2008, 04:49 AM

infinity88

December 10th, 2008, 05:00 AM

going to Melb in Mar 09. :banana:

Thought of locking in some AUDs now? :lol:

hayata1972

December 10th, 2008, 05:01 AM

Just getting out of my recent equity positions past few days... don't know what year end balancing will bring...
Also, using OD playing this market means willing to take profit a bit early...Have not done fantastic, only 20% past month or so as timing not perfect and poor stock picker (some more than double, but cant spot those). If not using OD may consider holding.

However, Lord Veru... not sure if things will get worse necessarily. We all know figures going to be crap stained toilet paper in Q1.

Also, doubt Euro go to parity with USD. This needs US to be good, EU much worse. My reading is still US really bad, EU going down hill. So my earlier guess on EUR1.2-1.3 still holds (tho happened much faster than thought). However, wondering if GBP eventually go nearer parity. I'm thinking most currencies (RMB, EUR, AUD vs USD) now near correct levels while mess sorts itself out.
Have thought about gold... but with everyone talking gold on CNBC, it hasn't moved much. This is surprising.

In meantime, me taking it easy, taking bets off slowly but possibly waiting to pounce again later. Still haven't booked holiday (maybe stay home) but maybe go to SG to counterbalance Lord Schtaw spending in HK, Macau !

Lord Macau, you really are gutsy! I was also considering using $75K OD line to play this market but the thought of market crash scared the hell out of me... You made 20% in the past month, you are considered a guru!

Good Job!!

W204

December 10th, 2008, 05:05 AM

Probabaly refering to gold. :nuts:

Thx :) Appreciate the inputs too.

hayata1972

December 10th, 2008, 05:05 AM

It is beyond banks and their supporting industries. Big MNCs like Dow Chemical and Sony. Thats the problem with price deflation.

SMEs will suffers more. And their closures/job cuts are not reported in the media.

"Tragedy of the Commons" Theory at work here. Everyone cut 5% assuming no impact. Cumulative for the System, the impact will be a lot more. Same thing if everyone spent 10% less.

There is still the problem of the 400,000 credit card holders in singapore that are still only paying their interest without the principal sum.... Domino effect will hit us very soon.

bigbird72

December 10th, 2008, 05:05 AM

Thought of locking in some AUDs now? :lol:

setting up a Oz acct . Will TT some money when AUD drops to lock it in.

bigbird72

December 10th, 2008, 05:09 AM

There is still the problem of the 400,000 credit card holders in singapore that are still only paying their interest without the principal sum.... Domino effect will hit us very soon.

And 33,000 not pay their HDB loans...

I think some CC holders hold multiple cards. 400k may be just 40k (assume 10 card per holder). Still a lot.
With credit tightening, CC holders cannot get new cards to rollover or increase debt.

Next year will see who been swimming naked.

Great time to be a lawyer for banks.

BTW used cars prices also plunged big time. Friend told me dealer only offer 35k for 3 yr Grandis. New one cost >70-80k.

W204

December 10th, 2008, 05:25 AM

It is the best time to visit Australia.

I just came back from Perth. Had a great time winery-hopping in Margaret River. :cheers:

Everything is 25% cheaper compared to a quarter ago! :banana:

MR is beautiful. Whenever I go MR, I will visit an Italian Restuarant called `The Goodfellas'. Had a memorable time there. When staff knew I was honeymooning there, they gave us an unforgetable wine and dine experience, for free!!

Leeuwin is my fav of the Winery there. Food is also good. Reading your posts makes me wanna go there, NOW!! :lol:

Thx for a great pre-lunch moment!

MacauVillager28

December 10th, 2008, 05:30 AM

Lord Macau, you really are gutsy! I was also considering using $75K OD line to play this market but the thought of market crash scared the hell out of me... You made 20% in the past month, you are considered a guru!

Good Job!!
If you went in past month, would've been nearer 40-50%. It was less as some I began on 21 Oct, so started off losing 40% on first trade, and have sold off before todays new peaks (so am probably even for year).
However, this still nothing compared to property drop (tho not losing, only losing profit). So not quite a guru.

So it was scary tho...
Day of big crash in HK (27 Oct), lost 18% on AM trade, 10% on second. However, that day there was blood in HK, and you could the smell of Napalm !! So despite losing, I felt a buzz.

Guess this is my casino...

bigbird72

December 10th, 2008, 05:36 AM

China - CONSUMER
Still shaky
Consumer confidence continues to deteriorate in November.

China Reality Research's (CRR) latest Consumer Monthly finds families turning more bearish on the economy. Perceptions of current business and employment conditions have deteriorated since October, with some 31% of respondents seeing pay cuts and/or layoffs at their firms. Job fears are lowering family-income expectations. And despite recent measures to boost the real-estate sector, the data does not show any easing of the wait-and-see mood; in fact, it shows the opposite.

Turning more bearish. Chinese consumers' perceptions of their economy continue to deteriorate. Some 66% of 335 families CRR spoke to in late November describe current business conditions as bad, up from 61% in October and 44% in June. As in September and October, coastal families are gloomier than those inland. 'The economy's not good at all', says an auto repair shop manager in Qingdao. 'Business has been getting worse and worse since July. A lot less people come here for repairs or maintenance now'. Their perceptions of employment conditions are particularly poor, with almost 90% of families saying jobs are hard to get, up from 81% in October. In fact, 31% of the families report pay cuts, layoffs or both at their own company, and 15% of those reporting business as usual say their companies have plans for pay cuts/layoffs. Compounding the labour-market tightening is the record-high number of college students - about six million - graduating next year and the difficulty college graduates have had in finding work in recent years.

Cutting out the non-essentials. About 44% of families tell us they spent less on dining out in November compared with October, while only 21% cut transportation and 19% cut grocery expenses. Says a man running a chiropractic clinic in Zibo, Shandong province: 'We used to have not only customers who came in for spinal problems but also those who just wanted to relax their muscles. But now, even though this is a peak season for us, the number of customers has halved'. Similar to October, 33% of the families cut their overall household budget in November.

Waiting. Despite recent measures to boost the real-estate sector, as many as 73% of families - up from 70% in October - are now saying they would wait for a better entry point supposing they had plans to buy a new home. The wait-and-see mood remains heavier in coastal areas than inland. 'Nobody else is buying', says a 39-year-old civil servant from Changzhou, Jiangsu province, 'so I'm not either. There are a lot of rumours that developers will cut prices sharply by the end of the year because they need cash'. More than half of the families - up from 44% in October - believe now would be a bad time to buy a car.

Saving more. Faced with limited investment options, more families have increased savings on last year. Some 48% of families - up from 42% last month - are saving more compared with the same time last year, and 28% are saving less, down from 33% in October. An engineer from Shenzhen summed up the mood: 'Right now I'm not buying stocks and I'm afraid of upgrading to a new home. Any increase in income this year is now in the bank. They say these are the times when cash is king'.

Broadly positive reaction to stimulus package. Some 47% of the families have reacted positively to the Rmb4tn stimulus package, which was announced in early November. 'I've heard that construction has already begun on several projects in Baoji [because of this stimulus package]', says a local network technician, 'and the city's residents are really going to benefit'. About 19% were negative about it and 28% held mixed views. A lawyer from Jinhua, Zhejiang province, says 'The stimulus package is mainly for increasing investment, which will in turn boost GDP. But it won't stimulate consumption. Plus, consumer confidence has been significantly damaged already'. But while the majority remain largely confident about how China will manage in the global crisis, people did seem a little less optimistic than in October. Some 58% of the families believe the global crisis will have either a light impact or no impact on China's economy - slightly lower than the previous month - whereas 38%, up from 34% in October, believe China will feel a strong impact.

infinity88

December 10th, 2008, 05:47 AM

MR is beautiful. Whenever I go MR, I will visit an Italian Restuarant called `The Goodfellas'. Had a memorable time there. When staff knew I was honeymooning there, they gave us an unforgetable wine and dine experience, for free!!

Leeuwin is my fav of the Winery there. Food is also good. Reading your posts makes me wanna go there, NOW!! :lol:

Thx for a great pre-lunch moment!

I can see you really really had great times there, huh? Remember the Chocolate Factory? Candy Cow? MR Dairy Company?

My favourite Winery has to be Vassa Felix, beautiful vineyard. But the best food I had would have to be at Lamont's. Just love the Marron (a type shellfish that looks like lobster)!

W204

December 10th, 2008, 07:28 AM

hayata1972

December 10th, 2008, 08:05 AM

And 33,000 not pay their HDB loans...

I think some CC holders hold multiple cards. 400k may be just 40k (assume 10 card per holder). Still a lot.
With credit tightening, CC holders cannot get new cards to rollover or increase debt.

Next year will see who been swimming naked.

Great time to be a lawyer for banks.

BTW used cars prices also plunged big time. Friend told me dealer only offer 35k for 3 yr Grandis. New one cost >70-80k.

1).33k sporeans not paying hdb loan...

2).400k roll over credit cards, conservative average estimate would be 4 cards per CC holder. Thus, 100k CC holders on the verge of default.

3).Job losses continue to mount... No info, no estimation.

4).Downward share and property prices.

Very bad senario....

Veru

December 10th, 2008, 08:26 AM

Just getting out of my recent equity positions past few days... don't know what year end balancing will bring...
Also, using OD playing this market means willing to take profit a bit early...Have not done fantastic, only 20% past month or so as timing not perfect and poor stock picker (some more than double, but cant spot those). If not using OD may consider holding.

However, Lord Veru... not sure if things will get worse necessarily. We all know figures going to be crap stained toilet paper in Q1.

Also, doubt Euro go to parity with USD. This needs US to be good, EU much worse. My reading is still US really bad, EU going down hill. So my earlier guess on EUR1.2-1.3 still holds (tho happened much faster than thought). However, wondering if GBP eventually go nearer parity. I'm thinking most currencies (RMB, EUR, AUD vs USD) now near correct levels while mess sorts itself out.
Have thought about gold... but with everyone talking gold on CNBC, it hasn't moved much. This is surprising.

In meantime, me taking it easy, taking bets off slowly but possibly waiting to pounce again later. Still haven't booked holiday (maybe stay home) but maybe go to SG to counterbalance Lord Schtaw spending in HK, Macau !

Lord of Macau ... as we correctly predicted, the current US recession began in DEC 2007 ... we were told this, at long last, by the ANALysts & Economists in Dec 2008 !! Thus while we will get an answer about the EUR USD cross in a month or so, we may have to wait till Dec 2009 till we get an answer as to the true stock market bottom from the very same ANALysts !!

bigbird72

December 10th, 2008, 10:15 AM

Manpower 1Q09 Survey

http://www.manpower.com/press/meos.cfm

SG

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/MAN/485957748x0x253608/3BFFC2B6-2FC8-4D7B-ACE0-49C770B3437D/SG_EN_MEOS_Release_Q109FINAL.pdf

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/MAN/485957748x0x253609/1F9D823A-C376-40A1-AF42-DD1CB4E404AB/SG_Q109_MEOS.pdf

OZ

http://www.manpower.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyid=MAN&fileid=253906&filekey=31FA34BD-5C5C-4EC6-907A-A5276074E755&filename=AU_MEOS_Release_Q109FINAL.doc

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/MAN/485957748x0x253920/83386F56-8F8D-4F64-966E-67C0D1E2A6AF/AU_Q109_MEOS.pdf

infinity88

December 10th, 2008, 10:19 AM

Lord of Macau ... as we correctly predicted, the current US recession began in DEC 2007 ... we were told this, at long last, by the ANALysts & Economists in Dec 2008 !! Thus while we will get an answer about the EUR USD cross in a month or so, we may have to wait till Dec 2009 till we get an answer as to the true stock market bottom from the very same ANALysts !!

:ohno::ohno: ANALysts :ohno::ohno:

sesami

December 10th, 2008, 02:17 PM

I can see you really really had great times there, huh? Remember the Chocolate Factory? Candy Cow? MR Dairy Company?

My favourite Winery has to be Vassa Felix, beautiful vineyard. But the best food I had would have to be at Lamont's. Just love the Marron (a type shellfish that looks like lobster)!

Hi infinity88 and W204, you guys really make me think of MR again. I just went last Apr, visited 7 wineries and brought back 9 bottles.
I had marron at the Lamont's too. I still remember overlooking the big lake.
As the serving is quite little, the waitress keeps asking if we ordered enough. :lol:

There is a restaurant called Ze Arc of Iris, which has a french chef and the food is very good too. I remember this because the french cannot pronounce The properly, so they will pronounce as Ze. :lol:

I truely enjoyed Cape Leeuwin lighthouse and the Busselton jetty too.

:cheers:

W204

December 10th, 2008, 03:37 PM

Hi infinity88 and W204, you guys really make me think of MR again. I just went last Apr, visited 7 wineries and brought back 9 bottles.
I had marron at the Lamont's too. I still remember overlooking the big lake.
As the serving is quite little, the waitress keeps asking if we ordered enough. :lol:

There is a restaurant called Ze Arc of Iris, which has a french chef and the food is very good too. I remember this because the french cannot pronounce The properly, so they will pronounce as Ze. :lol:

I truely enjoyed Cape Leeuwin lighthouse and the Busselton jetty too.

:cheers:

Looks like there are quite a few MR and WA fans here. While there are certainly many other beautiful places, somehow becoz it holds great memories for me and my wife, its always the first place I `escape' to if i need a place to unwind and chill out. Excellent place to just allow the body and soul to slow down so that I can again listen to my inner thoughts and get my bearings right.

7 wineries!! Wow, in how many days? 3 or 4? I only manage to cover about 2 per day. But I hand-carried back 11 bottles. Subsequent trip, I ask them to deliver straight back to Sg.

Veru

December 10th, 2008, 04:37 PM

AK47

December 10th, 2008, 06:42 PM

TOP this month

MIXED DEVELOPMENT COMPRISING ERECTION OF 1 BLOCK OF 36-STOREY RESIDENTIAL FLATS, COMMERCIAL (SOHO), MULTI-STOREY CARPARK, BASEMENT CARPARK, SWIMMING POOL AND COMMUNAL FACILITIES ON LOTS 1952X MK 01 AT 36 & 38 KIM TIAN ROAD - REGENCY SUITES

ERECTION OF A 24-STOREY RESIDENTIAL APARTMENTS (124 UNITS) WITH BASEMENT CARPARK AND A SWIMMING POOL ON LOT 01055X TS 23 AT 130 CANTONMENT ROAD - THE BEACON

CONDOMINIUM HOUSING DEVELOPMENT COMPRISING 10 BLOCKS OF 5-STOREY FLATS WITH ATTIC (TOTAL 162 UNITS) WITH SWIMMING POOL AND A BASEMENT CARPARK ON LOT 1905 MK 03 AT WEST COAST ROAD - THE STELLAR

10-STOREY WITH ATTIC RESIDENTIAL FLAT (70 UNITS) WITH CARPARK ON 1ST STOREY & BASEMENT, COMMON SWIMMING POOL, GYM & SKY TERRACE ON 4TH STOREY AND APARTMENT UNITS ON THE REMAINING STOREYS ON LOT 00819T TS21 AT 18 TONG WATT ROAD

ERECTION OF 5-BLOCKS OF 21-STOREY CONDOMINIUM HOUSING DEVELOPMENT (TOTAL : 400 UNITS), COMPRISING BASEMENT CARPARKS, COMMUNAL FACILITIES AND SWIMMING POOL ON LOT 3391T MK 25 AT AMBER GARDENS / MOUNTBATTEN ROAD - THE ESTA

W204

December 10th, 2008, 08:54 PM

Did you pay Sg customs duty on the 11 hand carried bottles or were they "commercial samples for display puposes only " ??? :lol:

Heehee, I wasn't going to kid myself the 11 bottles were `invisible'. I walked through to the red lane. Some things in life one should never cheat, taxes is definitely one of it, right? :)

LittlePig

December 11th, 2008, 12:26 AM

Heehee, I wasn't going to kid myself the 11 bottles were `invisible'. I walked through to the red lane. Some things in life one should never cheat, taxes is definitely one of it, right? :)

Wow! So how much taxes did you have to pay?

hayata1972

December 11th, 2008, 01:22 AM

infinity88

December 11th, 2008, 01:27 AM

Business Times - 11 Dec 2008

High-end projects take a knock, suburban condos edge higher

High-end prices fall 12-28%, while mass market projects climb 1-7%: study

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) Fresh data on home transactions compiled by Credo Real Estate confirms that prices of high-end housing projects have fared far worse than suburban condo prices between second-half 2007 and second-half 2008.

Credo's study shows that average prices of high-end projects generally posted declines, ranging from 12 to 28 per cent during the period. In contrast, the average prices of units in selected projects in the mass market generally rose 1 to 7 per cent.

Market watchers note that high-end residential property prices climbed much earlier during the bull-cycle and the price gains recorded were also much steeper. In contrast, mass-market home prices have lagged. 'So what goes up faster during the bull-run also tends to fall faster during the downturn; its physics,' as one seasoned residential property consultant put it.

Credo Real Estate managing director Karamjit Singh feels that high-end condo prices tend to be more elastic in relation to property cycles compared with mass-market projects.

This is partly due to differing buyer profiles in the two segments. 'Suburban condo buyers usually make their purchases for their own use and less as a tool for investment or speculation, unlike buyers in the high-end segment,' Mr Singh says.

'Prices are not a perfect science at the high-end due to the profile of the rich and foreign buyers who make up a good proportion of demand. They're less price sensitive and the products are less homogeneous; if there's something they like, even if it is priced at a premium, they're quite happy to buy it,' Mr Singh says.

Agreeing, another property consultant says that during the downward slide, 'investors, if they need to keep themselves liquid, will exit. In many cases, they may still make a profit even if price drops, as they entered the market early. But even if they need to cut losses, they will. Suburban home buyers, however, are likely to have purchased for their own occupation or upgrading, so they can't sell so readily.'

Credo's Mr Singh points out that the dramatic volatility in high-end prices over the past three years has also been shaped by the large number of prime district en bloc sales in 2006-07. This led to a chunk of the physical stock being withdrawn and driving high-end prices up astronomically. On the flip side, this global crisis in 2007-08 has actually impacted the rich much more than the man in the street, thereby dampening demand for high-end homes.

Credo's sample looked at Four Seasons Park condo, Ardmore Park and Cairnhill Crest in the Orchard Road belt, which showed average transacted prices fell 27, 12 and 17 per cent respectively in H2 2008 over H2 2007.

At Sentosa Cove, Credo's sample basket comprised The Azure, The Berth and The Oceanfront condos. The declines were 22 per cent for The Azure and 28 per cent for The Oceanfront. The sole unit transacted this half for The Berth was at $1,590 psf, down 5 per cent from the $1,679 psf average price achieved for 20 deals in H2 last year.

In the city centre, the average price at Marina Bay Residences fell 17 per cent to $1,985 psf in H2 2008 with five deals done. At The Sail @ Marina Bay, the average price slipped 14 per cent to $1,811 psf, with 42 deals in H2 2008.

In the mid-priced segment - defined as the low-$1,000 psf price range - One Amber, Sky@Eleven and The Tessarina - saw average transacted prices fall 19, 21 and 17 per cent respectively.

However, suburban Singapore demonstrated greater price resilience. Average transacted prices of eight of nine projects studied in the west, east and north posted 1 to 7 per cent gains in H2 2008 over H2 2007.

Credo's analysed caveats captured by Urban Redevelopment Authority's Realis system up to early November. 'We selected projects we felt symbolise their respective location-based categories, are large enough with sufficient transactions relative to the project size to reflect a clear trend, and were ideally not affected by en bloc sales initiatives last year as that could distort price patterns,' Mr Singh explains.

Property analysts generally expect the trend of high-end home prices being less resilient than mass-market prices to continue in 2009.

However, DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah argues that the decline in the high-end segment has to slow down at some stage. 'There has to be a price gap between the mass-market and high-end; otherwise, we'll start seeing a trade-off and demand may shift to the upper segments under market dynamics,' Mrs Ong says.

Overall current thin private residential transaction volume is being caused by a 'price mismatch between unwilling sellers and unwilling buyers' and the stalemate is expected to last 'until repricing takes place', Mrs Ong says.

'The uncertainty has to go away first. Companies will make a lot of decisions after the Singapore Budget in January.'

'Hopefully after that, some of the dust will settle and things will get clearer.'

Agreeing, the seasoned property agent said: 'It's easier to match buyers and sellers when things are more stable and we should start to see volumes improving from mid-next year.'

infinity88

December 11th, 2008, 01:29 AM

http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/3705/btimagescondos11jf9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

hayata1972

December 11th, 2008, 01:35 AM

http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/3705/btimagescondos11jf9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

In fact, yesterday i just checked the valuation of my current home, 950K. My purchase price was 890k beginning of this year.

bigbird72

December 11th, 2008, 02:20 AM

http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/3705/btimagescondos11jf9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Sentosa condos hit.

SCGlobal and IOI/HoBee projects will be hit.

YTL still in dreamland with its Sentosa landed & Westwood Apts. At least YTL got money to hold.

I GUESS mass mkt relatively stable due to downgraders and upgraders. With condos and HDB flats softening in prices, mass mkt
would be hit. I guess mass mkt also got support from PRs and some "miss-the-boat" folks.

bigbird72

December 11th, 2008, 02:24 AM

sesami

December 11th, 2008, 02:44 AM

Looks like there are quite a few MR and WA fans here. While there are certainly many other beautiful places, somehow becoz it holds great memories for me and my wife, its always the first place I `escape' to if i need a place to unwind and chill out. Excellent place to just allow the body and soul to slow down so that I can again listen to my inner thoughts and get my bearings right.

7 wineries!! Wow, in how many days? 3 or 4? I only manage to cover about 2 per day. But I hand-carried back 11 bottles. Subsequent trip, I ask them to deliver straight back to Sg.

I was in MR for 4 days. The area is just nicely peppered with wineries, farms and attractions so its ideal to do short stops at these destinations. I did Cape to Cape drive every day. :lol:

One place I've found rather similar to MR is the Desaru region. You can stay at the resort and visit farms and attractions and also have seafood at Sungei Renggit, minus the wineries. :cheers:

For me, the 9 bottles are wrapped in my luggage and passed through the green lane. :lol: but i heard from my cousin that the taxes for the wines are not too ex. like a few dollars a bottle.

Veru

December 11th, 2008, 02:59 AM

For me, the 9 bottles are wrapped in my luggage and passed through the green lane. :lol: but i heard from my cousin that the taxes for the wines are not too ex. like a few dollars a bottle.

Careful careful my friend ... BIG brother is always watching ... it will be open sesame to the doors of the customs court next :ohno:

sesami

December 11th, 2008, 03:14 AM

Careful careful my friend ... BIG brother is always watching ... it will be open sesame to the doors of the customs court next :ohno:

Hi Lord Veru, thanks for the advice. Next time I will take the red lane and declare. No point running such risks. :)

bigbird72

December 11th, 2008, 08:27 AM

Can no caveat means no bank loan, other than no need financing?

Singapore - PROPERTY
Gauging distress
The risk of distress sales or defaults is increasing. U-WT.

We see a rising risk of distress sales or defaults for property developers. Some 22% of private homeowners that bought properties in 2006-07 are yet to take bank mortgages. And, with bank valuations for Singapore homes contracting, 60% of these homeowners may now need to make higher equity contributions. We see a greater risk of default for developers AllGreen, UOL, MCL Land, Ho Bee and Fragrance Group, and continue to Underweight the sector.

No financing yet for 22% of 2006-07 sales. Based on our analysis, 5,695 of the 24,879 non-landed private homes purchased in 2006-07 are yet to lodge a "caveat", suggesting that many owners are yet to take bank financing. While in some cases this may indicate that owners do not require financing, a large majority had been using the now-defunct deferred payment scheme (DPS) and will have to seek bank financing when these units are completed (at the latest). Of these, we estimate that 40% of these units will obtain temporary occupancy permits (TOP) in 2009, with the rest obtaining TOP in 2010.

Declining valuations; higher demand for equity. A recent check suggested that bank valuations for homes are now close to the levels seen in 1H07, and 10-17% above 2006 levels. A further 20% contraction in valuations would require 3,520 home owners to contribute 40-60% more equity than previously expected. This number could rise further if banks become more conservative on valuations. Those with limited resources or with assets deep out of money could make distress sales or default on developers.

Developers facing higher relative risk. Checks on units sold per project suggest that AllGreen (AG SP - S$0.42 - SELL), UOL Group (UOL SP - S$2.05 - U-PF), MCL Land (MCL SP - S$0.72), Ho Bee (HOBEE SP - S$0.35) and Fragrance (FRAG SP - S$0.21) sold more units during periods of higher speculative interest. As a result, these developers are more likely to see defaults. We note that the analysis on developers is based on broad macro assumptions, as micro data is unavailable.

Underweight. Our estimate of mounting pressure on owners of 3,520 Singapore homes (5,695 units, worst case) is material, although not substantial given that only a portion of these units will come in as distress sales over 2009 and 2010 (note that Singapore saw a total of 10,103 home transactions in the first three quarters of 2008). Furthermore, a 20-30% default on the non-financed units could add 6-15% more units to the current unsold inventory of 11,080 units. Nevertheless, any distress-sale-related newsflow will have a bearing on Singapore residential prices. We remain Underweight on the sector due to the weak demand-supply scenario for the Singapore residential and commercial markets and our expectation of a 40% peak-to-trough fall in residential prices. Our preferred pick in the sector remains CapitaLand (CAPL SP - S$2.86 - BUY), given its inexpensive valuations and regional asset portfolio (including China, which accounts for 30% of GAV).

W204

December 11th, 2008, 09:42 AM

Wow! So how much taxes did you have to pay?

Its been 10 yrs since. But if i remember correctly, approx $10 per bottles.

august5

December 11th, 2008, 01:33 PM

Laguna Park condo looking to get majority vote to push through en bloc sale
By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 11 December 2008 2021 hrs

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/395683/1/.html

SINGAPORE: Laguna Park condominium along Marine Parade Road could be up for collective sale. It's not yet a done deal but about 77 per cent of tenants there have agreed to it.

The sales committee could expect a few more signatures in the coming days to cross the 80 per cent trigger which will move the en bloc process forward.

Laguna Park has already engaged an agent to market the 99-year leasehold property, which has 528 units.

Channel NewsAsia understands the asking price is about S$1.2 billion.

Each owner stands to pocket between S$1.8 million and S$2.1 million if the deal goes through.

It works to about S$633 per square foot of gross floor area.

Nicholas Mak, director, Consultancy and Research, Knight Frank, said: "I think the figure of S$1.2 billion was derived somewhere in 2007 when the en bloc sale market was still very buoyant. In today's market, the owners will probably have to lower their expectation, easily by 20 per cent or so."

The en bloc market has slowed significantly.

Last year, there were 104 successful collective sales transactions. This year, it's just seven and the trend will likely continue next year.

Given the sheer size of the development, the bidder for Laguna Park will likely need several partners to join in as well.

Laguna Park condominium sits on 667,000 square feet of land with a plot ratio of 2.8.

Analysts said that based on the plot ratio and land area of Laguna Park, a developer will be able to build between 1,200 and 1,500 units of new homes there. That could pose a challenge as the developer may have to phase out its marketing efforts over a year incurring a fair amount of cost in the process.

Mr Mak added: "Another challenge facing the en bloc market is actually difficulty in raising financing from the banks because the banks are in a tight situation and they would also be looking at any sort of massive borrowing very conservatively."

Observers said given the quiet market, developers could have little appetite for collective sales.

But some may still grab a good bargain if the price is right. - CNA/vm

shctaw

December 11th, 2008, 01:49 PM

Capitulation.

In the stock market, capitulation is associated with "giving up" any previous gains in stock price as investors sell equities in an effort to get out of the market and into less risky investments. True capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. It usually is indicated by panic selling.

Learn this word from an article I just receive a few minutes ago.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Dancing with the Bear
Investing for these times (and possibly the next Great Depression)

By John Sakowicz

Catherine Austin Fitts—the visionary head of Solari, an alternative-investment advisory company, and someone whose blog I read daily—has a curriculum she calls "Positioning Your Assets for Growth in Uncertain Times." Fitts asks many provocative financial questions, but I'm here to try to answer something else: How do we invest for possibly the next Great Depression? I shit you not.

On Nov. 11, I went to an event in New York sponsored by Merrill Lynch. I went to hear Blackrock Inc. CEO Laurence Fink. Fink is a guy who is as much responsible for the subprime mortgage default mess, and subsequent global credit crisis, as anyone I can think of. He helped pioneer the concept of subprimes. He is an expert in our pain. What Fink said on Nov. 11 was hugely important: We will not hit bottom until there is "capitulation" in financial markets. Capitulation is the broad sell-off that precedes the end of a bear market. The broad sell-off of everything: stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies. Everything and anything you can think of. Capitulation = panic selling. Since the spike in defaults in mortgage-backed subprimes brought down Bear Stearns this summer, $28 trillion has been lost in the global stock market. Here in the United States, the Standard & Poor Index has lost about 42 percent, while the MSCI AC World Index of developing nations and emerging markets stocks has fallen 49 percent. Commodities have also collapsed, further imperiling the developing world. As I write this on Nov. 13, oil is selling for about $55 a barrel, down from this summer's high of $147. Everything the developing world sells to the rest of us is also down big-time. Copper. Iron. Nickel. Lead. Zinc. Aluminum. Molybdenum. Coffee. Sugar. Cocoa. Cotton. Lumber. Gold. Silver. Platinum.

The Bad News Bear continues to roar.

But Fink says we haven't hit bottom yet. At the Nov. 11 conference, he insisted, "We won't see a bottom until we see a capitulation." Fink said something else. He said, "I see the markets starting to recover, maybe by mid-2009." But he was also quick to say that if the markets don't recover by mid-2009, we may see this recession continue to deepen. After capitulation, if markets don't recover, they will bottom out and flatten out, possibly for years, just like the Great Depression or Japan's "lost decade" of the 1990s.

And that presents a wonderful window of opportunity. Bull market or bear market—there's always opportunity, always. Don't fight the bear. Dance with the bear. (Or as Wall Street guru Jane Bryant Quinn says, "Post-crash planners keep the faith in stocks.")

Here and now, I'm throwing down a challenge. Think you are smarter than me? You probably are. But you'll have to prove it. My strategy for the next 12 months is to do what the pros are doing. Here's what the pros are doing:

1. If commodities have sold off, bet on a commodities comeback. The world's population continues to grow, as do shortages. A song keeps going through my head: "A hundred barrels of oil in the wall. You take it down, and pass it around. Ninety-nine barrels of oil in the wall."

2. If commodities have to be moved from producers to consumers, also place a bet on those who move commodities, like transoceanic shipping companies and pipeline companies.

3. If "cash cows" like utilities are cheap, then buy utilities. Warren Buffet is buying them. They're cheap, and they pay big dividends relative to what you're now going to get in CDs or money market funds.

4. If the U.S. Treasury is investing in banks through the TARP bailout program, then maybe you should, too. The Treasury's investments provide a "backstop" against big losses. Your downside is limited.

5. If you believe president-elect Obama, and I do, then maybe you should bet that the sun will shine on solar and other green technologies again. My personal belief is that Obama will not only create a national public works program as part of an economic stimulus package that will reindustrialized our country and put America back to work, he will also make a really huge investment in green technology.

Let's look at these ideas, one by one.

Commodities

Commodity prices will probably continue to fall in the near-term. Today's prices find oil at $55 a barrel, copper at $1.63 a pound and gold at $738 an ounce. Who would have thought? As Crazy Eddy used to say, "These prices are i-n-s-a-n-e!"

Here's a heads up: Demand isn't falling as fast as commodity prices or the stock prices of commodity producers, so I'm predicting a rebalancing of supply-demand to price ratio. Traders call this "charting." In other words, the correlation between the technicals and the fundamentals is out of whack.

Another heads up: The commodities sector is a capital-intensive industry. It takes a lot of money to explore, a lot of money to produce and more money to ship. This means that as the global credit crisis has dried up capital, smaller producers will suffer most because they will find it hardest to borrow. Hence, look for a shakeout among smaller producers.

A final heads up: Fundamentals will strengthen soon. Demand is going to rebound quickly, no matter what the doom-and-gloom guys say. Rising economies, like China, India, Brazil and the Middle East—and the increasingly wealthy consumers who live in those countries—are going to drive the rebound in commodities prices. Remember, America's day may be over, but the rest of the world still wants to live like Americans. If we Americans have exported anything over the last few decades, it is our culture of consumerism and materialism.

My picks:

• Petróleo Brasileiro or Petrobras (ticker PBR). Target buy price $20–$21. Why? Brazil, along with China, will be the world's leading, fastest-growing economy in the future. Also, the company is sitting on one of the two biggest energy fields to be discovered in the last 20 years, the Tupi oil field. And the Carioca field, in the same Santos Basin, could be up to five times as big.

• Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK). Target price $20. Why? Largest producer of natural gas in the United States, with 12.1 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves. Company continues to grow production. Good at controlling costs. And Chesapeake Energy has $2.5 billion cash on its books, even after a 10-year, $14 billion acquisition binge.

• Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX). Target price $23. Why? One of the world's biggest, most efficient producers. A monster producer. Stock is oversold. Pays a decent dividend. Look for the company to close down its U.S.-based Phelps Dodge mines. Even a modest rebound in commodity prices will have highly leveraged effect on returns.

• Fortescue Metals Group (FSUMF). Target price $1–$1.25. Why? Big Australian producer of iron ore. Oversold. Chinese steel producers are its best customers. I like those Chinese customers. Huge reserves at its Cloud Break and Christmas Creek properties, 143 million tons of new proven reserves, and another 429 million more tons are possible.

• Plum Creek Timber (PCL). Target price $31. Why? The company owns 1.2 million acres of higher- and better-use land it will someday sell to home developers, plus another 7 million acres of timberland. A long-term play on the recovery of the housing market. But they pay you to wait. Organized as a real estate investment trust, PCL yields 3.5 per cent.

• Rayonier (RYN). Target price $30. Another undervalued timber company. Unlike PCL, they don't sell acreage to homebuilders; rather, they are the actual developers. For example, RYN is developing 6,300 out of the 14, 516 acres it owns in Flagler County, Fla. (one of the country's fastest growing counties). RYN owns 2.5 million more acres throughout the United States and New Zealand, most of it timberland. Like PCL (above), RYN is organized as a real estate investment trust, but it pays a richer dividend, yielding close to 7 percent.

• Ultra Petroleum (UPL). Target price $43. Why? Huge earnings growth from the 230 square miles of natural gas fields it owns or leases in southwest Wyoming, the most exciting new energy discovery in the continental United States in our lifetime. Also, the credit crisis won't be bothering UPL anytime soon. UPL has cash. A year ago, it sold its Sino-American subsidiary, which owned Bohai Bay assets in China.

• Thompson Creek Metals (TC). Target price $3.30. Why? Big molybdenum producer. Also, a play that China's $586 billion stimulus plan, announced just last week, will drive global steel production over the next few years (molybdenum strengthens steel). Profitable. Gross margin: 37.92 percent. Net profit margin: 23.03 percent. Strong balance sheet. No need to borrow with $152 million cash on its books.

• Yara International (YARIY). Target price $18. Why? We don't usually think of fertilizer as a commodity, but it is; it's potash. Yara's key market? Brazil. In late June, YARIY was an $87 stock. Talk about a sell-off in commodities. Now the stock is oversold. A sell target of $38 is achievable in the next 12 months.

• Suncor Energy (SU). Target price $20. Why? Big Canadian oil sands producer. Yes, that's right, you can squeeze oil out of sand in Alberta's huge oil sands fields—proven reserves as much as many OPEC members—under high pressure and high temperature. Ridiculously good five-year growth of 31.4 percent. And SU is just getting started. Their Athabasca fields are the future of oil in North America, not the Arctic Wilderness or offshore drilling in California (no matter what Sarah Palin says). Final note: China's national oil company, PetroChina, owns a big block of SU stock. Did I hear anybody say takeover?

Commodities Movers

These are the guys who move commodities. My picks:

• Enbridge Inc. (ENB). Target buy price $32–$33. Why? Their Waupisco pipeline brings oil from Alberta's oil sands to Edmonton's refineries. ENB has lots of other projects, too, like the Ontario Wind Project and the Spanish pipeline company Compañía Logística de Hidrocarburos. And ENB pays a nice 3.38 percent dividend.

• Energy Transfer Partners (ETP). Target price $34.50. Why? Well, how about 14,000 miles of intrastate oil and natural gas pipelines in Texas and 2,500 miles of interstate pipelines. Great infrastructure. Their Transwestern Pipeline, Cleburne Pipeline and Mid-Continent Express Pipeline are all new. Good yields, too. ETP's master limited partnership units are yielding about 9.3 percent.

• Deere & Co. (DE). Target price $35. Why? Deere harvests corn, wheat and soybeans, and also moves corn, wheat and soybeans. We know those commodities are selling for about half of what they were selling for only a year ago, but they'll rebound—the world has to eat. Farm prices aren't falling. Does that tell you something? With the rebound in grain prices, Deere will also rebound.

Utilities

Think you know more than Warren Buffett? Think again. Buffett has been on a utility-buying binge, betting on consolidation in the industry. But there are three companies he left on the table. My picks:

• FPL Group, formerly Florida Power and Light (FPL). Target buy price $47–$48. Why? Simple. FLP is the utilities industry's leader in wind power generation. Besides being clean and renewable, the beautiful thing about wind is that it fits in well into the grid with the different patterns of peak electricity generation coming from oil, natural, gas, coal and nuclear. And FPL has 37, 700 megawatts of capacity. Pays a 4.11 percent dividend.

• American Electric Power (AEP). Target price $32. Why? AEP sits next to Appalachia's coal fields. AEP is perfectly positioned for further consolidation in the utilities industry. Dividend yield is 5.62 percent.

• Duke Energy (DUK). Target $17–$18. Why? Duke's recent merger with Cinergy creates a new company with over 4 million customers and 16,000 megawatts of unregulated generating capacity for the wholesale market. Well-managed company. Nice balance sheet. Very nice. Debt/equity ratio: 0.70. Gross margin: 38 percent. Net profit margin: 9.93 percent. You can't do much better than that. Also, a nice dividend of 6 percent. Think of the alternatives. CDs? Nah. Money market funds? Nah. Finally, DUK is slowly becoming a wind energy player. Last year, it acquired the wind assets of the Energy Investor Funds from Tierra Energy.

Banks

Or should I say bank? I have only one pick here:

• US Bancorp (USB) Target buy price $27. Why? USB recently received $6.6 billion from the U.S. Treasury's $700 billion TARP bailout program in exchange for preferred stock and warrants, just like all those other big-name banks with a sob story that you read about every day. But unlike the other banks, USB didn't need the money. USB's Tier 1 ratio was 8.5 percent before getting the bailout money, well above the benchmark 6 percent that characterizes a well-capitalized bank.

After the bailout money, USB Tier 1 ratio will jump to 11.4 percent. My guess? USB will use that extra money to buy out a weaker competitor at a bargain basement price. USB could be a $50 stock in 12 months. Incidentally, it pays a 6.75 percent dividend. And USB's net profit margin was 24.58 percent—not bad when every other bank in the country is going down the toilet.

Green Technology

This is a hard sector to separate the winners from the losers because it's so damned speculative, so I won't make individual picks. You can efficiently and cheaply invest in a sector by buying an Exchange Traded Fund or ETF. An ETF is a basket of leading stocks in a particular industry sector. Furthermore, ETFs usually trade on one of the leading exchanges, like the New York Stock Exchange. Therefore, ETFs are highly liquid. There are several ETFs in the green technology sector.

The granddaddy of alternative energy ETFs is PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (ticker PBW). PBW is a basket of 40 different companies, no one of which has more than a 4 percent weighting in the whole portfolio. It has a market capitalization of more than $1 billion, and is heavily weighted on U.S. stocks.

The grand mammy is something called the Van Eck Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX). It is more heavily weighted on international stocks.

PowerShares also has another ETF called the Progressive Energy Portfolio (PUW). This ETF doesn't track alternative energy producers, like the PBW; rather, it tracks companies that improve the efficiency and environmental impact of existing fuel sources. A third ETF offering by PowerShares is the CleanTech Portfolio (PZD), which includes water resources and purification, and advanced materials and logistics companies, in the portfolio of alternative energy production and technology companies.

The First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge ETF (QCLN) includes five sub-portfolios: renewable power generation, renewable fuels, energy storage and conversion, energy intelligence and advanced energy-related materials

Final Word

So there you have it. Some stock picks. What didn't we talk about? We didn't talk about bonds. We didn't talk about how much money to keep in cash and cash equivalents. We didn't talk about asset allocation in stocks, bonds and cash. We didn't talk about rebalancing your portfolio. We didn't talk about common investing mistakes. And we didn't talk about how this recession is different. It may be much worse than you think.

John Sakowicz is a Sonoma County investor who was a cofounder of a multibillion-dollar offshore hedge fund Battle Mountain Research Group. Go to www.ukiahvalley.tv to see Sakowicz in action. Arianna Carisella and Ryan Morris assisted with research for this article. Part II of his Greenberg exposé will follow.

lincholia08

December 11th, 2008, 02:11 PM

Laguna Park condo looking to get majority vote to push through en bloc sale
By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 11 December 2008 2021 hrs

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/395683/1/.html

Observers said given the quiet market, developers could have little appetite for collective sales.

But some may still grab a good bargain if the price is right. - CNA/vm

little appetite... :lol: Maybe Capital land should just snap up Laguna Park now than to wait till owners become greedy again.

august5

December 11th, 2008, 02:18 PM

little appetite... :lol: Maybe Capital land should just snap up Laguna Park now than to wait till owners become greedy again.

Snap up and wait? Laguna is not freehold leh. :nuts:

Yeah, little appetite is probably an understatement.

bigbird72

December 11th, 2008, 04:37 PM

little appetite... :lol: Maybe Capital land should just snap up Laguna Park now than to wait till owners become greedy again.

I can EASILY think of much better ways of using $1.2 bn in SG property mkt.
Beside no one got extra money to buy LP.

CAPL still got FC, GH hanging around their necks.

LP enbloc comm SIAO!. :nuts:

shctaw

December 12th, 2008, 01:05 AM

$1.2B to buy LP..................:lol:

I will just choose a Reit and paid it in full. $0.4B.

And at the same time pay down all it's debt. $0.8B.

And I will have a Reit which is fully paid and free from debt and have all it's properties worth more than $3b.

Easy.

I can EASILY think of much better ways of using $1.2 bn in SG property mkt.
Beside no one got extra money to buy LP.

CAPL still got FC, GH hanging around their necks.

LP enbloc comm SIAO!. :nuts:

hayata1972

December 12th, 2008, 02:20 AM

$1.2B to buy LP..................:lol:

I will just choose a Reit and paid it in full. $0.4B.

And at the same time pay down all it's debt. $0.8B.

And I will have a Reit which is fully paid and free from debt and have all it's properties worth more than $3b.

Easy.

Silversea sales doing horribly, Costa del sol prices dropping fast at $7XXpsf, The esta and One amber at $8XXpsf region, Parc Seabreeze not selling.... Which developer with half a brain would even consider anymore en-bloc.... Especially in the D15 area?

sesami

December 12th, 2008, 02:31 AM

Silversea sales doing horribly, Costa del sol prices dropping fast at $7XXpsf, The esta and One amber at $8XXpsf region, Parc Seabreeze not selling.... Which developer with half a brain would even consider anymore en-bloc.... Especially in the D15 area?

Very true, D15 is going to have a glut of properties in the next 2 to 3 years with more TOPs coming. I think the first to capitulate will be the small developers doing those mini Telok Kurau projects.

bigbird72

December 12th, 2008, 02:39 AM

Silversea sales doing horribly, Costa del sol prices dropping fast at $7XXpsf, The esta and One amber at $8XXpsf region, Parc Seabreeze not selling.... Which developer with half a brain would even consider anymore en-bloc.... Especially in the D15 area?

LP enbloc comm using LP to think???....hahaha..soory...cannot resist it....hahaa

shctaw

December 12th, 2008, 03:20 AM

LP enbloc comm using LP to think???....hahaha..soory...cannot resist it....hahaa

Bet with LP; LP will not get a deal.

We have a rally in stock markets worldwide recently; but I bet it is a bear trap. I have sold 50% of all my shares past 2 days; and I hope to sell the rest by today.

Another big corp may go bankrupt tonight. 12 Dec 2008.

General Growth shares drop to 45 cents
Bankruptcy possible if firm can’t raise funds to cover debt

Shares of General Growth Properties tumbled 65 percent Tuesday, after the cash-strapped shopping mall operator disclosed late Monday that it may be forced to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection if it can’t refinance debt that will come due later this year and in 2009.

In mid-afternoon New York Stock Exchange trading, General Growth shares were trading down 97 cents, at just 49 cents apiece. Early in 2008, before the debt-heavy company ran into problems with a suddenly stingy credit market, General Growth shares were trading above $49 apiece, and the company had a market valuation of more than $13 billion.

Investors are reacting today to a quarterly report the Chicago-based shopping mall operator filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission Monday, in which the real estate investment trust warned of a potential bankruptcy, stating “Our potential inability to address our 2008 or 2009 debt maturities in a satisfactory fashion raises substantial doubts as to our ability to continue as a going concern.”

General Growth is working with its syndicate of lenders to extend a Nov. 28 maturity date for $900 million related to two malls in Las Vegas, according to the filing.

“Given the continued weakness of the retail and credit markets, there can be no assurance that we can obtain such extensions or refinance our existing debt or obtain the additional capital necessary to satisfy our short-term cash needs on satisfactory terms,” the company said in the filing, released after the markets closed.

The company has an additional $3.07 billion of debt coming due next year. If it is unable to extend or refinance the debt or raise funds to pay it, General Growth “will be required to take further steps to acquire the funds necessary to satisfy our short-term cash needs, including seeking legal protection from our creditors,” the filing said.

A company spokesman declined to comment further.

John Bucksbaum, a second-generation member of the family that founded the company, stepped down as chief executive last month in the wake of an escalating crisis that has left the mall owner uncertain how it is going to make debt payments left over from an acquisition spree.

General Growth has about $23 billion in debt maturing over the next five years, with $1.2 billion due this year.

Brothers Matthew and Martin Bucksbaum built the company, taking it public in 1972. The family remains the largest shareholder.

Shares fell 34 percent Monday, to $1.37. The stock was trading above $54 a little more than a year ago.

pp123

December 12th, 2008, 06:41 AM

LP enbloc comm using LP to think???....hahaha..soory...cannot resist it....hahaa

super classic.....

pp123

December 12th, 2008, 06:43 AM

i am just curious...Farrer C enbloc so much $$$$....but the site is just next to HDB wet market + a few HDB blocks......How much can the new development sell?

MacauVillager28

December 12th, 2008, 07:16 AM

We have a rally in stock markets worldwide recently; but I bet it is a bear trap. I have sold 50% of all my shares past 2 days; and I hope to sell the rest by today.

Have sold off all stocks by Weds. A bit too early (missed out almost 10% on most sales). HSI midday was off 1200pts, so near 50% retrenchment, which could mean time to start buying again, but even with this drop, prices barely lower than my earlier sales for most. Sold as still no positive news, which probably won't happen till at least Jan.
I think capitualation happened in HK on 27 Oct, and late Nov in US. Dont know if these rallies are bear market rallies or bottom already hit. So dont know if should go in (a bit) again (given drop in HSI today too much and 50% retrenchment ?). Either way, need to trade sometimes as sitting in cash wont give you profit - remember reading if you sit on stocks, you get 4%, miss 10 biggest falls, you get something like 10% pa, while if you get 10 biggest rallies you get 14% (or similar) over past 50 years . So guess try to miss 10 biggest falls but be in for the 10 biggest rallies.
So I think sitting on stocks not an option long-run. But if you want to (try) to beat the market, this is the time (either lose or win big).

redstone

December 12th, 2008, 09:45 AM

LP enbloc comm using LP to think???....hahaha..soory...cannot resist it....hahaa

LOL :rofl:

bigbird72

December 12th, 2008, 03:03 PM

12 Dec 2008 South China Morning Post
Sandy Li
Surge in home sales quickly loses steam

Job losses and wage fears to curb mainland market

Nearly all mainland cities registered a sharp rise in residential sales last month, underpinned by recent interest rate cuts and other supportive measures by the government.

Photo: AFPLast month’s rebound in transactions was largely a result of discounting by developers and government policies beginning to take effect.

Yet there is little cause for celebration. Despite the increased sales and Beijing’s continuing bid to stimulate the economy, including the property sector, hopes for a speedy recovery in a housing market that has slumped since the middle of last year are low.

Market watchers have yet to reach aconsensus as to when the sector will fully recover, but some believe that prices will bottom out only in 2010.

“We expect to see further property price cuts in the next couple of months to boost sales volumes. Towards year-end, developers will have rising cash outlays, as they need to settle taxes, interest payments and construction workers’ back pay before the Lunar New Year holiday,” said Jing Ulrich, chairman and managing director of JP Morgan.

With the domestic economy expected to weaken further, she said the threat of rising unemployment and income insecurity would be the main stumbling block for a recovery in the market.

Last month’s rebound in transactions was largely a result of discounting by developers and government policies beginning to take effect, Mrs Ulrich said.

However, she pointed out that the increase in transaction volumes was off a relatively low base.

New housing sales in Shanghai were only 958,000 square metres in October, or about a quarter of the peak level in mid-2007.

“With more commercial banks recently offering discounts to their mortgage offerings, home buyers who had previously held off during September and October have returned to the market. This is a sign that confidence is returning,” she said.
Beijing’s support measures that took effect on November 1 also helped trigger a big jump in housing sales in almost all cities, including Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai.

Sales of new homes in Shenzhen, worst hit by earlier cooling measures, with prices tumbling up to 50 per cent since the second quarter of last year, shot up 90 per cent last month from the previous month to 6,435 units. Pre-sales in Beijing were up 64 per cent, and those in Shanghai jumped 36 per cent.

Prices in Beijing dropped between 15 and 20 per cent, and those in Shanghai fell between 10 and 15 per cent.

First-time homebuyers of flats smaller than 90 sq metres will pay less down payment, 20 per cent instead of 30 per cent. Both first-time buyers and those upgrading will benefit from mortgage rates reduced to 70 per cent of base lending rates.

Other preferential measures are a cut in property deed tax to 1 per cent from 1.5 per cent and the abolition of the 0.05 per cent stamp duty and value-added tax for purchases.

Nevertheless, the sales growth has swiftly lost steam in the week to December 7. Beijing saw a 4.29 per cent drop week on week to 2,102 deals, while transactions in Shanghai fell 1.66 per cent to 3,966 during the same period. Shenzhen edged up 0.41 per cent to 1,559 units.

Adrian Ngan Wai-hung, an executive director at CCB International Securities, warned it was too early to say that a long-term recovery had set in, judging only by the past one or two months’ figures.

“ Consolidation of the property market will continue,” he said, adding that it would take more than a year for the market to absorb excess inventories.

His remarks came after a top government-backed think-tank said on December 3 that the property market had entered a lengthy correction because genuine buyers remained on the sidelines in fear of more price declines.

In its 2009 Economic Blue Paper, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said the property industry would undergo a fresh round of xipai, or reshuffling of cards after a game, at a time of tightened monetary policy.

The report forecast that prices were unlikely to rebound next year in the absence of investors. In the deteriorating market environment, it expects growing numbers of default
Printed and distributed by NewpaperDirect | www.newspaperdirect.com, US/Can: 1.877.980.4040, Intern: 800.6364.6364 | Copyright and protected by applicable law.

shctaw

December 13th, 2008, 02:24 AM

Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Ponzi Scheme

The shocking revelation that prominent investment manager Bernard Madoff's hedge fund, Ascot Partners, was a giant scam will intensify redemptions from scores of other hedge funds that will be forced to liquidate holdings and increase downward pressure on stock prices.

This additional negative influence on the market, together with liquidations by mutual funds facing redemptions and endowments facing the need for liquidity, are three significant barriers for optimism about the direction of stock prices in the near term.

The arrest of the 70-year-old Madoff, widely considered to have the magic touch as an investor, is another serious black eye for the hedge fund industry and all non-transparent investment vehicles. Investors across the New York area have clamored to be in Ascot because of the stability of double-digit returns and the reports of serious wealth creation. The scandal is bound to reveal the inner workings of the hedge fund industry, whereby intermediary feeders bring in their clients and take fees for putting clients with an investment manager.

If Madoff hadn't faced $7 billion in redemptions, this Ponzi scheme might not have been discovered. What's astonishing is that he got away with it for so long with nobody discovering it. What his four family members in Ascot knew is a puzzle that everyone wants answered, but one thing is certain: It's virtually impossible to have returns like Madoff reported, and it should have been a major warning signal.

Aside from the impact on stocks overall, the exposure of fraud on a massive scale is also devastating to individuals who trusted Madoff with their fortunes and to nonprofit organizations like Yeshiva University, which counted on Madoff's purported secret trading system to help operate its institutions. Sterling Equities, the investment vehicle of the Wilpon family, which owns the New York Mets baseball team, had $300 million reportedly invested in Ascot. So did some wealthy investors who had money in related hedge funds who were never informed of ties to Ascot. Another private bank executive placed $10 million from a client just two weeks ago. He knew of another family that had $100 million with Madoff. A woman in California told us that she had lost everything with Madoff and another hedge fund.

Everyone in New York wants to know how Madoff could have pulled off this Ponzi scheme whereby these new investment funds were apparently used to pay double-digit returns to some of the older investors. A charitable account that operates institutions in Israel received a 12% return recently. Other individual investors report that they got nothing.

Ascot's monthly reports are voluminous, showing many transactions in and out of the market every day. Madoff was supposed to have some "black box" model that signaled when to buy and when to sell. He was one of the most active traders in the marketplace, and his annual returns in these short-term trades were mainly ordinary income, which made Ascot attractive mostly to tax free institutions like foundations, hospitals and religious groups. After many years of returns in the range of 12% to 15%, in recent times the profits have been in the high single digits at times.

If indeed, $50 billion was lost, as apparently Madoff claims, it is the largest such fraud in history, and one that might even shame the conman whose name is attached to this brand of deception. In 1920, Charles Ponzi, an Italian immigrant, began advertising that he could make a 50% return for investors in only 45 days. Incredibly, Ponzi began taking in money from all over New England and New Jersey. By July of 1920, he was making millions as people mortgaged their homes and invested their life savings. As with all frauds, he was discovered to have a jail record and was indicted on 86 counts of fraud. Some tens of millions of dollars were invested with him.

Other fraudsters have made inglorious names for themselves. In March of 1932, Ivar Kreuger, a Swedish businessman who had cooked the books of his match manufacturing business and forged $142 million of bonds, shot himself in the head. It was reported that he may have burned through $400 million of investor money by falsifying the accounts of 400 separate companies.

Until Madoff came along, the Equity Funding scandal may have been the largest fraud in dollar terms in U.S. history. A publicly held company whose shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the top executives falsified 64,000 insurance policies that were used to report revenues of $2 billion. The company also sold $25 million in counterfeit bonds and had missing assets of $100 million. Three auditors and high ranking executives served prison terms.

Expect Madoff to be one of the first jailed investors of the 2008 market meltdown. Hopefully, there will be others.

shctaw

December 13th, 2008, 02:33 AM

sesami

December 13th, 2008, 04:01 AM

What a stupid world we are living in now.................

You are up 8%-12% every year you kenna a Ponzi scheme, when you lost your pant investing in MiniBond, it is alright. Damn the wall street.....................

Actually it can happen to anyone. Imagine you are 50 to 60 years old and you genna this type. minibonds, stock market crash, currency devaluation, asset deflation etc etc... one major one and can wipe out fruits of labour.
so the moral of the story is: make merry while it lasts... :cheers:

bigbird72

December 13th, 2008, 04:15 AM

Actually it can happen to anyone. Imagine you are 50 to 60 years old and you genna this type. minibonds, stock market crash, currency devaluation, asset deflation etc etc... one major one and can wipe out fruits of labour.
so the moral of the story is: make merry while it lasts... :cheers:

thats why when 50-60 yrs. must invest mainly in cash deposits, CPF and govt bonds.

shctaw

December 13th, 2008, 04:53 AM

one major one and can wipe out fruits of labour.
so the moral of the story is: make merry while it lasts... :cheers:

I think the major one have not arrive yet.

Sell, sell, sell will be the game plan in 2008-2009.

PS: Congress reject the auto industry bailout but the treasury still go ahead. There is more outlaw in USA than I have earlier estimate. It is time for USA to go broke.

august5

December 13th, 2008, 01:06 PM

What a stupid world we are living in now.................

You are up 8%-12% every year you kenna a Ponzi scheme, when you lost your pant investing in MiniBond, it is alright. Damn the wall street.....................

The guy is already 70 years old. 50 billion fraud, and worst he can get is life sentence. Seem like he is still the winner. :nuts:

bigbird72

December 13th, 2008, 06:23 PM

Noted the recent property resales transacted. Mainly < $1.2m.

If a person earning good salary, still need to do cash advances from CC.
Something is wrong somewhere. I wouldn't lend money to these people.

Title : Banks conduct thorough financial "check-up" on applicants for home loans
Date : 13 December 2008 2358 hrs (SST)
URL : http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/396129/1/.html

SINGAPORE: Housing agents said clients who are applying for home loans have to be prepared for a thorough financial "check-up" by banks.

Other than normal criteria such as age and income levels, banks are also said to be scrutinizing and sensing out signs of trouble through one's credit ratings.

Hence, those who might have defaulted their monthly loan repayments or have made cash advances from credit cards might just be in for a disappointment.

For those who are lucky enough to get their loans granted, experts claim that banks are not as generous as before.

Housing agents revealed that only 10 per cent of their clients managed to secure 90 per cent of the requested loan, compared to nine out of 10 previously.

With signs of stresses in the job market, banks also seem set on cutting their risks and are no longer that keen on holding on to non-performing loans.

Ghazali Safrain, executive director, CityHomes Real Estate Group, said: “If people have a salary of S$2,500, chances of getting a loan was very easy last year and the year before but now, even if your salary is S$3,000, you might have difficulties in getting a loan.”

Muhammad Azzad Ahmad, head, Loan Business (Direct Banking) Maybank, said: ”We do have to look at each credit case a little bit more in detail. So for example with the current market downturn, there are several industries, companies and individuals being affected. So we have to look at person's occupation, age and even educational background.” -CNA/vm

LittlePig

December 15th, 2008, 01:30 AM

Thought I'd share a little something I found in my inbox this morning:

http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/7985/pic14721lc8.jpg

hayata1972

December 15th, 2008, 02:17 AM

Thought I'd share a little something I found in my inbox this morning:

http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/7985/pic14721lc8.jpg

Very true..... Situation is horrendous... Valuations are down the drain... Business is bad.... But Laguna residents still asking for 1.2 billion...:nuts:

ayanami

December 15th, 2008, 02:34 AM

This is probably a little off topic, but really wanted to seek some pointers/advice from all of you who have all shown great knowledge in various financial instruments.

Question : What instruments can I consider if I am looking the following :

1. about 2-4% returns per annum.
2. Relatively low risk
3. Time horizon : 1 year
4. Does not require active management by me

Of course, there is a time deposit which seems to be highest at 1.88 offered by Standard Chartered. But wanted to do some due diligence to see how to maximise the returns.

Thanks in advance. Any advice will be really appreciated.

hayata1972

December 15th, 2008, 02:52 AM

Singapore's Parkway says to cut staff, salaries

Reuters - 1 hour 53 minutes ago

SINGAPORE, Dec 15 - Singapore hospital and healthcare operator Parkway Holdings <PARM.SI> said on Monday it will cut salaries and lay off up to 4 percent of its staff in a bid to rein in costs.

"The group is not immune to the current global economic challenges," the firm said in a statement.

Parkway, part-owned by Malaysian sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional Bhd, said its directors would not receive any fees for 2008 while senior managers' salaries would be cut by 15-35 percent.

For middle management, the reductions would be between 5 and 10 percent, it said. Parkway did not say how many people would be affected by the job cuts.

bigbird72

December 15th, 2008, 03:13 AM

Parkway paying for the dumb >$1bn bid for Novena hospital site. Grossly overpaid.

Medical tourism already slowing in 3Q08.

Singapore's Parkway says to cut staff, salaries

Reuters - 1 hour 53 minutes ago

SINGAPORE, Dec 15 - Singapore hospital and healthcare operator Parkway Holdings <PARM.SI> said on Monday it will cut salaries and lay off up to 4 percent of its staff in a bid to rein in costs.

"The group is not immune to the current global economic challenges," the firm said in a statement.

Parkway, part-owned by Malaysian sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional Bhd, said its directors would not receive any fees for 2008 while senior managers' salaries would be cut by 15-35 percent.

For middle management, the reductions would be between 5 and 10 percent, it said. Parkway did not say how many people would be affected by the job cuts.

shctaw

December 15th, 2008, 03:32 AM

I will keep all my cash in Time Deposit and do nothing. Especially in 2009.

With the US$50b Ponzi Scheme expose; I believe we will have a down month in DEC 2008. Now every hedge funds look like a ponzi scheme to me. There will be mass redemetion this week and hedge funds will need to sell to stay liquid.

This is probably a little off topic, but really wanted to seek some pointers/advice from all of you who have all shown great knowledge in various financial instruments.

Question : What instruments can I consider if I am looking the following :

1. about 2-4% returns per annum.
2. Relatively low risk
3. Time horizon : 1 year
4. Does not require active management by me

Of course, there is a time deposit which seems to be highest at 1.88 offered by Standard Chartered. But wanted to do some due diligence to see how to maximise the returns.

Thanks in advance. Any advice will be really appreciated.

ayanami

December 15th, 2008, 04:56 AM

I will keep all my cash in Time Deposit and do nothing. Especially in 2009.

Thanks for the advise. Know of any banks offering better than 1.88% ?

How about me considering some dual-currency time deposits ? Too risky ?

ayanami

December 15th, 2008, 08:15 AM

Correction to above points. I just found out that the 1.88% time deposit is applicable only if the deposit amount is S$ 1 mil. :nuts:

Which bank offer a good yield for dual-currency deposits ?
I got quoted by HSBC for 2% doing SGD/AUD with "strike" price at 0.93 for a 1month tenor. OUB quoted 2.7%. Looks like the difference in percentage is quite huge. I have not compared other banks.

Any forummers here have done the "comparative" shopping before ? Please share his findings ?

august5

December 15th, 2008, 09:07 AM

Dec 15, 2008
Private home sales still weak
By Joyce Teo

SALES of private homes in November totalled 192 units, compared with a mere 118 units in October and 376 units in September.

Developers launched 382 units last month, up from 159 units in October.

The top seller in November was Rosewood Suites, a 200-unit condo in Woodlands. Forty two units - out of 80 units that were launched last month - were sold at a median price of $606 per square foot (psf).

The 104-unit Newton Edge in Makeway Avenue also did relatively well last month, selling 34 units at a median price of $1,201 psf.

august5

December 15th, 2008, 01:19 PM

http://www.todayonline.com/articles/292567.asp

Laguna Park crosses 80-per-cent threshold

hayata1972

December 15th, 2008, 02:11 PM

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=duLds-TZMGw

Ouch.:lol:

Veru

December 15th, 2008, 04:35 PM

Lord of Macau .... looks like an EUR USD inflection point may have been reached !!

The USD is toilet paper....... again ... ?? Only Morgan Stanley still insists that its 1H09 forecast for the cross at 1.10 is still intact ........ fyi I switched back to EUR at 1.2750

Toenar

December 15th, 2008, 05:08 PM

What a stupid world we are living in now.................

You are up 8%-12% every year you kenna a Ponzi scheme, when you lost your pant investing in MiniBond, it is alright. Damn the wall street.....................

Banks hit worldwide by US 'fraud'

Mr Madoff is the former chairman of the Nasdaq stock exchange
Some of the world's biggest banks have revealed they are victims of an alleged fraud which has lost $50bn (£33bn).

Bernard Madoff has been charged with fraud in what is being described as one of the biggest-ever such cases.

Among the banks which have been hit are Britain's HSBC and RBS, Spain's Santander and France's BNP Paribas.

One of the City's best-known fund managers has criticised US financial regulators for failing to detect the alleged fraud.

More from Today programme

Nicola Horlick, boss of Bramdean investments, told the BBC: "I think now it is very difficult for people to invest in things that are meant to be regulated in America, because they have fallen down on the job."

"This is the biggest financial scandal, probably in the history of the markets - $50bn is a huge amount of money," she said.

Counting the cost

Banks and financial institutions across the world had investments with Bernard Madoff, but not all have yet confirmed what their potential losses might be.

Among the largest potential losers so far is Spain's largest bank, Santander, which also owns the UK High Street banks Abbey, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley.

One of its funds had $3.1bn invested in the firm run by Bernard Madoff

Britain's HSBC said it had investments of about $1bn which could be affected.

Royal Bank of Scotland said it could potentially lose about £400m ($601m) if all its investments had to be written off.

The French bank, Natixis, a subsidiary of Caisse d'Epargne and Banque Populaire, said it could potentially lose up to 450m euros (£402m; $605m).

One of the world's biggest investment groups, Man, said it had invested about $360m through its RMF institutional fund of funds business, representing 0.5% of its total funds

'Systemic failure'

Meanwhile, some of the biggest private losers seem to have been members of the Palm Beach country club, where many of Mr Madoff's wealthy clients were recruited.

According to some reports, the list of prominent victims include a New Jersey Senator, the owners of the New York Mets and the charities run by film director Stephen Spielberg and Nobel Prize winning writer Elie Wiesel.

MAJOR POTENTIAL LOSSES

Santander, Spain - $3.1bn
HSBC, UK - $1bn
Natixis, France - $605m
Royal Bank of Scotland, UK - $601m
BNP Paribas, France - $460m
BBVA, Spain - $400m
Man Group, UK - $360m
Reichmuth & Co, Switzerland - $325m
Nomura, Japan - $303m

Mrs Horlick said 9% of Bramdean's own funds were invested with Mr Madoff, but that even if the money was written off, the fund involved would be down just 4%.

"I just want to make it clear to investors that even after this, they they would have done extremely well, relative to anything else they could have invested in," she said.

In a statement, Bramdean said: "The allegations made appear to point to a systemic failure of the regulatory and securities markets regime in the US."

However, some argued that the fund managers should themselves have done more.

"City figures cannot call for light touch regulation yet at the same time complain that regulators missed risks that the industry failed to spot," said Simon Morris, a partner with City law firm CMS Cameron McKenna.

"It's the unequivocal job of the fund manager to check out the bona fides of whoever they chose to pass their customers' money onto," he said.

Antonio Borges, chairman of the Hedge Fund Standards Board, said the scandal highlighted the need for "robust governance practices and oversight via independent boards, which will challenge management procedures and behaviour".

Meanwhile one of the City's watchdogs, the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) called on whistleblowers to come forward with evidence of corporate wrongdoing in the wake of the credit crunch.

The Serious Fraud Office said it wanted workers, former staff and shareholders to step up with information over suspected fraud in the current financial turmoil.

Director Richard Alderman said: "Our objective is to ensure that we can bring offenders to justice as quickly as possible."

High returns promised

US prosecutors say Mr Madoff, a former head of the Nasdaq stock market, masterminded a fraud of massive proportions through his hedge fund and investment advisory business.

Mr Madoff is alleged to have used money from new investors to pay off existing investors in the fund.

A federal judge has appointed a receiver to oversee Mr Madoff firm's assets and customer accounts, while the 70-year-old banker has been released on $10m bail.

Mr Madoff founded Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities in 1960, but also ran a separate hedge fund business.

According to the US Attorney's criminal complaint filed in court, Mr Madoff told at least three employees on Wednesday that the hedge fund business - which served up to 25 clients and had $17.1bn under management - was a fraud and had been insolvent for years.

He said he was "finished", that he had "absolutely nothing" and "it's all just one big lie", and that it was "basically, a giant Ponzi scheme", the complaint said.

If found guilty, US prosecutors say he could face up to 20 years in prison and a fine of up to $5m.

infinity88

December 16th, 2008, 01:44 AM

If found guilty, US prosecutors say he could face up to 20 years in prison and a fine of up to $5m.

By then, Madoff will be 90 years old. He could have been dead by then. He already had good life for the past 40 over years. $5m fine is insignificant compared to what he had "made"/enjoyed. :ohno::ohno:

shctaw

December 16th, 2008, 01:50 AM

Top banks admit huge losses in Wall Street 'pyramid' fraud

Top world financial groups on Monday revealed massive potential losses from an alleged scam run by Wall Street trader Bernard Madoff, admitting they were fooled by a classic pyramid investment fraud.
British, French, Japanese and Spanish banks and funds said investments totalling billions of dollars (euros) could be wiped off their balance sheets by a scandal that is set to affect some of the richest people in the world.

Royal Bank of Scotland said it could lose about 400 million pounds (598 million dollars, 444 million euros), joining a growing list of banks and investors in Europe, Asia and the United States struck by the scandal.

Shares in Santander, the biggest bank in Spain and the second largest in Europe after HSBC , plunged after the lender said it had an exposure of more than three billion dollars to Madoff Investment Securities in New York.

France's Natixis investment bank, already brought low by subprime losses, put its maxiumum exposure at 450 million euros (606 million dollars). Retail banking giant BNP-Paribas revealed potential losses of 350 million euros.

Japanese financial giant Nomura said it could lose up to 303 million dollars and officials in South Korea said financial institutions there a total exposure of some 95 million dollars to Madoff's scandal-hit investment scheme.

Madoff, a 70-year-old Wall Street veteran, was arrested last Thursday.

He is alleged by US prosecutors to have confessed to defrauding investors of 50 billion dollars in a long-running scam that collapsed after clients asked for their money back as a result of the global financial crisis.

Banks around the world have rushed to disclose potential losses from the scandal in an apparent bid to avert any deepening of the suspicion which has frozenh credit markets, and in stark contrast to widespread reticence in recent months as the subprime mortgage crisis unfolded.

US authorities allege that Madoff delivered consistently strong returns to clients by secretly using the principal investment from new investors to pay out to other investors in the scheme, a version of what is known as "pyramid fraud".

The scheme apparently worked as long as he could attract new investors but seems to have unravelled when some of Madoff's clients asked to withdraw their principal -- only to discover that his seemingly brimming coffers were empty.

This fraud is also known as a "Ponzi scheme" after a US swindler from the 1920s, Charles Ponzi, who cheated thousands of mostly small-time investors of their savings by promising returns of 40 percent by means of foreign exchange arbitration on international reply-paid postage stamps.

British investment fund Bramdean Alternatives Limited, which said it had put about 31.2 million dollars in Madoff's company, said that the scandal raised "fundamental questions" about the American financial regulatory system.

"It is astonishing that this apparent fraud seems to have been continuing for so long, possibly for decades, while investors have continued to invest more money into the Madoff funds in good faith," the firm said in a statement.

Britain-based hedge fund manager Man Group said it had invested 360 million dollars in Madoff Securities. The fund said in a statement that "it appears that a systematic and comprehensive fraud may have been committed."

Property magnate Vincent Tchenguiz, one of Britain's richest people, was reported to be potentially affected to the tune of millions of pounds by the scam, which the Wall Street Journal says has also hit wealthy US investors.

Meanwhile Britain's HSBC declined to comment on a report in the Financial Times that it had potential exposure of 1.5 billion dollars. A spokesman for HSBC in Hong Kong said he had "no comment" to make on the report.

Spain's El Pais newspaper reported that the country's second-biggest bank, BBVA, could lose hundreds of millions of euros in the scam. The report said "some managers put the figure at around 500 million."

French insurance giant Axa on Monday said that its potential losses were below 100 million euros and top banks Societe Generale and Credit Agricole each said that their exposure was under 10 million euros.

Italy's biggest bank, UniCredit, said its exposure was around 75 million euros but added that an investment unit Pioneer Investments may also have been indirectly affected without giving any further details.

Banco Popolare said its exposure amounted to 68 million euros.

In Switzerland, Geneva private banks could lose up to five billion dollars (3.7 billion euros) in the scam, Swiss newspaper Le Temps reported, while private bank Reichmuth & Co said it may have lost 328 million dollars.

Sweden's Nordea banking group said its exposure was 48 million euros.

Germany's Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank have declined to comment on the effects of the Madoff scam. A spokesman for Commerzbank told AFP that there would be no comment on particular investments because of "banking secrecy."

bigbird72

December 16th, 2008, 02:09 AM

^^ the question is where are the early investors or the ones who got out early. Can courts get those money back???

bigbird72

December 16th, 2008, 02:38 AM

Some investors may be forced to surrender their gains

16 DEc 2008 AWSJ

Investors are unlikely to get back much of the money they invested with Bernard Madoff, and those who took out money in recent years may have to give it back.

It is a complicated situation. And certain investors may be able to offset some of their losses through tax moves and through the organization that steps in when brokerage firms fail.

As investigators figure out how the money disappeared, the ramifications for investors are large. If the money were stolen from a brokerage, as much as $500,000 per client should be covered by the Securities Investor Protection Corp., a nonprofit funded by the securities industry. However, SIPC doesn’t cover investment losses, and many of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC’s clients had millions of dollars invested with the firm, far above the SIPC limit.

The alleged deception by Mr. Madoff far exceeds the scale of past hedge-fund frauds, including the high-profile, $400 million scheme by Connecticut hedge-fund company Bayou Group LLC. Bayou’s cofounder Samuel Israel III went on the lam on the day he was to report to prison for a 20-year sentence earlier this year.

Though dramatically smaller in scale, Bayou is being discussed in connection to the Madoff scandal. That is because the federal bankruptcy court overseeing the Bayou case decided this year that investors who had pulled their money out of Bayou in some cases years before Bayou’s fraud was detected had to reach into their pockets to give back profits, and even some of their initial investments, to help offset losses by other investors who got snared in the scheme.

That decision was based on a legal notion called fraudulent conveyance, which concerns the illegal transfer of property with the intent to commit fraud. The concept could be mixed news for Madoff’s investors, depending on their situation.

“I’m sure there are some people who are thinking their lives are over, but the good news is that because Madoff is thought to have run a Ponzi scheme, investors could get money back from other Madoff investors who already took money out,” said Brad Alford, who runs Atlanta-based investment adviser Alpha Capital Management LLC.

The Bayou precedent, and the fact that hedge funds are involved, is just part of the reason that investors who thought they made money with Mr. Madoff in the past could find themselves on the hook to return money. Bankruptcy-receivership practices make all investors vulnerable.

“The concepts blur in a Ponzi scheme where one person’s principal is another person’s profits,” said Jay Gould, a former SEC investmentmanagement attorney who now runs the hedge-fund practice at Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw & Pittman LLP in San Francisco. “It’s the receiver’s job to go back and collect as many assets as possible, from whatever sources, including investors who withdrew assets from the scheme— whether those assets were characterized as principal or profit.”

Still, it is doubtful, given the alleged scope and structure of Mr. Madoff’s scheme, that investors who feel they have lost everything will find much relief. “They probably won’t see much of that money ever again,” Mr. Gould said.

One Bayou investor Mr. Alford knows got out of Bayou almost two years before that firm filed for bankruptcy. Given how much time had passed, the investor was stunned to learn that he had to return part of his original Bayou investment as well as all of the profits he thought he had made—profits that ended up being fabricated—Mr. Alford said.

If the same holds true with Mr. Madoff’s case, people who pulled money to pay for home mortgages, retirements or children’s college bills could end up trapped.
Some investors will be able to partly recoup losses through tax moves. One option is to write off investment losses this year as a way to recoup back taxes. Because any losses due to Mr. Madoff are likely to be characterized as a “theft loss,” those losses will be treated more favorably from a tax standpoint, said Bob Willens, a New York tax adviser.

For one, theft losses are treated as ordinary losses that can generally be deducted without limitation. With personal casualty or theft losses, your deduction generally is limited to the extent those losses exceed 10% of your adjusted gross income—and that's after reducing each loss by $100. Secondly, eligible losses resulting from theft can be carried back as net operating losses for three years instead of two as is more typical, he said.

But investors can typically only deduct theft losses in the taxable year in which that loss is sustained and “discovered”—which is likely to be 2008. That means they will be covered in the returns investors file next year.

One complication: Under U.S. tax law, investors might not be able to deduct the loss if there is a chance they could ultimately get back some of their money. “If you’re going to join in a lawsuit or class-action suit, that might delay your tax deduction,” Mr. Willens said. “If you can think about it rationally, you’re almost certainly better off not pursuing reimbursement and deducting the tax loss in 2008.”

Richard Oppenheim, an accountant in Holmdel, N.J., has one client that invested with Mr. Madoff years ago and now fears her entire $10 million account is gone. In past years, the Madoff portfolio showed a gain of about 10% to 12% each year. Mr. Madoff would send monthly statements as well detailing all trades made, usually in blue-chip stocks and stock-index options. At the end of the year, the statements reflected that Mr. Madoff had sold all the securities and put the proceeds in Treasury bills, before starting the strategy again in January, Mr. Oppenheim said.

The gains kept clients happy, but the rapid trading led to high tax bills, sometimes as much as $500,000 per year for Mr. Oppenheim’s client. But now that those gains have likely evaporated and may have never been there in the first place, Mr. Oppenheim is planning to amend the tax returns for his clients for the last three years, in an effort to get some of the tax money back.

He said tax money could be recovered for more years if the securities are deemed worthless, and added that investors might also end up looking into tax treatment of casualty and theft losses.

How much relief investors will get from SIPC is unclear. Unlike the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which steps in to refund deposits when a bank fails, SIPC’s coverage is more limited. If a firm doesn’t have the funds and securities to repay any customer obligations in a bankruptcy, then SIPC will cover losses related to theft and proven unauthorized trading up to $500,000 per account, including $100,000 for claims for cash.

But SIPC might not have enough in reserves to cover potential losses, experts say. As of Dec. 31, 2007, the SIPC Fund had about $1.5 billion to cover potential claims. While the Securities and Exchange Commission can make another $1 billion in loans to them, it would probably have to go back to Congress for more money, says Steven Caruso, a securities attorney in NewYork. “We’d be looking at another bailout, only this time it would be SIPC,” he says.

Eventually, investors will be able to file a claim with the SEC. When the SEC collects whatever assets are left, it will make some pro-rata distribution of those assets to investors. At some point, the SEC will start notifying investors and requesting that they file claim forms. Typically after several years, investors may get some fraction of what they’ve invested.
Printed and distributed by NewpaperDirect | www.newspaperdirect.com, US/Can: 1.877.980.4040, Intern: 800.6364.6364 | Copyright and protected by applicable law.

infinity88

December 16th, 2008, 02:56 AM

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/2205/madoff16p18tu7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

shctaw

December 16th, 2008, 03:03 AM

Fool's Gold. Invest in treasure; turn out to be rubbish.

If big corp worldwide can get scam; who are we to avoid it.

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/2205/madoff16p18tu7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

shctaw

December 16th, 2008, 03:47 AM

A summit in Brazil now do not welcome USA participation. USA now is not a leader anymore?

Bush Excluded by Latin Summit as China, Russia Loom

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Latin American and Caribbean leaders gathering in Brazil tomorrow will mark a historic occasion: a region-wide summit that excludes the United States.

Almost two centuries after President James Monroe declared Latin America a U.S. sphere of influence, the region is breaking away. From socialist-leaning Venezuela to market-friendly Brazil, governments are expanding military, economic and diplomatic ties with potential U.S. adversaries such as China, Russia and Iran.

“Monroe certainly would be rolling over in his grave,” says Julia Sweig, director of the Latin America program at the Council of Foreign Relations in Washington and author of the 2006 book “Friendly Fire: Losing Friends and Making Enemies in the Anti-American Century.”

The U.S., she says, “is no longer the exclusive go-to power in the region, especially in South America, where U.S. economic ties are much less important.”

Since November, Russian warships have engaged in joint naval exercises with Venezuela, the first in the Caribbean since the Cold War; Chinese President Hu Jintao signed a free-trade agreement with Peru; and Brazil invited Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for a state visit.

“While the U.S. remains aloof from a region it no longer sees as relevant to its strategic interests, other countries are making unprecedented, serious moves to fill the void,” says Luiz Felipe Lampreia, Brazil’s foreign minister from 1995 until 2001. “Countries in the region are more aware than ever that they live in a globalized, post-American world.”

A Castro Triumph

The two-day gathering, called by Brazil at a beach resort in Bahia state, is also a diplomatic triumph for Cuban President Raul Castro, making his first trip abroad since taking over from his brother Fidel two years ago. The communist island was suspended from the hemisphere-wide Organization of American States in 1962 over its ties with the former Soviet Union.

“A lot of this is designed to stick it in the eye of the U.S.,” says Peter Romero, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere from 1999 to 2001. “But underlying the bluster, there’s a genuine effort to exploit the gap left by a distant and distracted U.S.”

The effort is most evident in the bloc of countries allied with the anti-American president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez.

Bolivian President Evo Morales last month expelled the Drug Enforcement Administration, alleging that DEA agents were conspiring to overthrow him; U.S. President George W. Bush dismissed the charges as absurd and suspended trade privileges for the Andean nation.

Drug-War Defeat

In Ecuador, meanwhile, President Rafael Correa has refused to renew the lease on the U.S.’s only military outpost in South America, a critical platform for the U.S. war on drugs.

For Brazil, tomorrow’s summit caps a decade-long diplomatic drive to use its growing economic and political stability to play a bigger role in the world.

While little concrete action is expected from the first-ever Latin American and Caribbean Summit on Integration and Development, the fact that the U.S. wasn’t invited has symbolic importance, says Lampreia.

The summit reinforces such regional initiatives as the Union of South American Nations, which was formed in May by 12 countries to mediate conflicts such as political violence in Bolivia, bypassing the U.S.-dominated OAS.

Thomas Shannon, the top U.S. diplomat for Latin America, says the nature of American influence is only changing, not declining, as the region matures.

No Invitation Sought

The U.S. “didn’t ask to be invited” to the summit, he says, although it had discussed with Brazil and Mexico ways the meeting’s agenda could be used during the U.S.-backed Summit of the Americas, in April in Trinidad and Tobago.

“We don’t subscribe to the hydraulic theory of diplomacy that when one country is up, the other is down -- that if China and Russia are in the area our influence has somehow waned,” Shannon said in a telephone interview.

The fact that “there’s no warfare, weapons proliferation, suicide bombers or jihadists” in Latin America may make its issues “less urgent,” though no less important, Shannon said. The U.S. remains the region’s dominant investor and trading partner: Foreign aid to Colombia to fight drug traffickers and Marxist rebels totals $700 million a year, and remittances from Latin Americans living in the U.S. totaled $66.5 billion last year.

Monroe’s Doctrine

The Monroe Doctrine, which dates back to 1823, declared Latin America off-limits to European powers. Whether welcomed by the region or not, it has been invoked whenever real or imagined security threats to U.S. interests arise, says Gaddis Smith, a retired Yale University historian of American foreign policy.

“Its essence is unilateralism; no Latin American country had any say in it,” says Smith, whose more than a dozen books on American foreign policy include “The Last Years of the Monroe Doctrine.”

The real battle is for a larger share of the region’s abundant resources and expanding economies, and China has led the way.

Two-way trade with the region shot up 12-fold since 1995 to $110 billion last year, according to the Inter-American Development Bank. China’s share of the region’s imports also jumped, to 24 percent from 9.8 percent in 1990, while the U.S. share shrunk to 34 percent from 43 percent. Two years after reaching a bilateral free-trade agreement, China’s demand for copper made it Chile’s biggest export market in 2007, replacing the U.S.

Hu’s Trips

Since making his first of three trips to Latin America in 2004, China’s President Hu Jintao has spent more time in the region than Bush -- 22 days to 20 for the U.S. president. In October, as the global credit crunch dried up lending in the region, China joined the Inter-American Development Bank with a $350 million loan to finance small businesses. This month it pledged $10 billion in loans to state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA so Brazil can develop the Western Hemisphere’s largest oil discovery since 1976.

“The Chinese play up the development side of diplomacy so much better than the Americans,” says William Ratliff, a research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution who has a Ph.D. in Chinese and Latin American history. “Deals come with none or very few strings attached.”

Even Colombia, which is spending $115,000 a month lobbying the U.S. Congress to approve a stalled free-trade pact, signed an investment treaty last month with China. During this year’s U.S. campaign, President-elect Barack Obama said he opposed the accord over concerns that Colombia isn’t doing enough to stamp out violence against labor organizers.

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe today canceled his plans for the summit to monitor rescue efforts involving 200,000 people affected by flooding over the weekend.

Arms Deals

Changing relationships are also evident in arms deals. Chavez turned to Russia for at least $4.4 billion in weapons after the U.S. blocked sales of aircraft parts. Brazil, the region’s largest economy, is also shopping around: Defense Minister Nelson Jobimsaid in Washington this month that his government will only buy weapons from countries that agree to transfer technology for local production.

Plans to purchase 36 new fighter jets, in which Boeing’s F- 18 is competing for a contract against Stockholm-based Saab AB and France’s Dassault Systemes SA, “can only be justified politically if they contribute to national development,” Jobim said.

Brazil may sign a deal with France for four nuclear submarines intended to help secure its oil basins in the Atlantic when French President Nicolas Sarkozy visits Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva this month.

Reactivating a Fleet

The U.S. plan to reassert its naval presence by reactivating the Fourth Fleet after 58 years to patrol the Caribbean has triggered negative reactions ranging from Chavez’s threat to sink the convoys to the more-diplomatic Lula’s demand for explanations from the Bush administration.

Latin American leaders are looking to Obama to restore relations after the Bush presidency’s initial pledges of greater engagement gave way to a focus on the 9/11 terror attacks and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet the honeymoon with Obama may be short-lived, says Michael Shifter, vice president of the Inter- American Dialogue in Washington. He says that the issues that have dominated Latin American relations -- including Cuba, immigration and U.S. trade barriers on agricultural products -- may remain in dispute.

“Latin America wants the U.S. to be engaged, but in very different terms that it has in the past,” says Shifter. “In any case, they’re not waiting around for the U.S. to change its mindset.”

infinity88

December 16th, 2008, 04:23 AM

A summit in Brazil now do not welcome USA participation. USA now is not a leader anymore?

Bush Excluded by Latin Summit as China, Russia Loom

To avoid shoes throwing at leaders??? :nuts::nuts:

sesami

December 16th, 2008, 05:39 AM

Fool's Gold. Invest in treasure; turn out to be rubbish.

If big corp worldwide can get scam; who are we to avoid it.

Sifu, its very true, anything can happen.
No need to look too far - if CPF min amount and age keeps increasing, the goal post is shifted further and further away.
After all these happenings, I tend to get disillussioned and think that the stock market is a whole big casino, where everyone is punting.
So I better focus on my company's business instead. :lol:

bigbird72

December 16th, 2008, 07:27 AM

Sifu, its very true, anything can happen.
No need to look too far - if CPF min amount and age keeps increasing, the goal post is shifted further and further away.
After all these happenings, I tend to get disillussioned and think that the stock market is a whole big casino, where everyone is punting.
So I better focus on my company's business instead. :lol:

those doing business, should always focus on their biz. Stock mkts is distracting. Last thing a businessman need is a lack of focus.

Easy money weakened the hard-work ethics.

darwisk

December 16th, 2008, 07:34 AM

:applause::applause::applause:
I like your word of advise.. It is indeed very true..

shctaw

December 16th, 2008, 10:05 AM

if CPF min amount and age keeps increasing, the goal post is shifted further and further away.
After all these happenings, I tend to get disillussioned and think that the stock market is a whole big casino, where everyone is punting.
So I better focus on my company's business instead. :lol:
Some time I wonder why a cup of coffee goes up from $0.50 to $1 in 7 years.

A movie ticket on weekend is now $10, while back in my school day is $2.

I ask myself what is Inflation........... how to fight it ..............

If your return on investment your investment is 7%; in 10 years you will have $2m if you started with $1m.

However if inflation is 8% you end out lossing "value of money" even when you own $2m cash it is only worth $800,000 10 year back. In fact one is worst off when inflation kick in higher than return on investment. In real world who will invest $1m if you only have $1m?

I thought inflation is a "rise in price" but in fact after some research it is a silent "TAX" that build in the money system. The more you print them, the lesser it is worth.

Now what is "Legal Tender"............? You can read it in any note you stuff in your wallet but is it really money? Or is it just a paper with some ink on it and government insist you must "believe" it is money................

Sound like the movie "Matrix" and yes it is indeed the matrix................

Just teasing you guys with some "truth"............

Do not ask me what is my point................ find it out yourself because I am not NEO. But I am sure Veru is the Oracle.

shctaw

December 16th, 2008, 10:10 AM

We have very wise people in this forum, but during hard time it is hard to swallow a good advice which poke into the wound which one is still licking.

I believe in the bite of the bullet and take it in style theory. Forget about hedge fund or even unit trust. Just trust yourself.

Dec is about to end; and a lot of people have very bad statement for the whole of 2008. If one hope for a better 2009, one may get a double whammy. Good advice, do what you do best.

those doing business, should always focus on their biz. Stock mkts is distracting. Last thing a businessman need is a lack of focus.

Easy money weakened the hard-work ethics.

infinity88

December 16th, 2008, 11:34 AM

sesami

December 16th, 2008, 04:38 PM

^^^^

shctaw,

The Matrix has much its influence from the teaching of Buddhism, aka 万事皆空, literally means all things are in fact empty. I do believe that no asset or investment be it physical or in paper form is safe in this world. If you think more deeply, were we not born with nothing, 来也空空，去也空空，meaning we came with nothing, we go with nothing?

I am no Buddha, nor will I be Neo. I am very sure I will continue to live in the matrix and I will never achievement enlightenment. Since I am already in the system (real world or Matrix), I will live happily in it, invest with my best knowledge, spend the seemingly devaluing dollars, enjoy what I have and love my loved ones. :)

I am eagerly looking forward to the bottoming of stock market and property market, probably 6 to 12 months from now, then make a BIG move and hopefully can retire in the Matrix.

shctaw, you sounded very pessimistic, my friend. You have done very well so far from what I gathered in this forum. You will continue to do very well in the future. :applause:

Sorry for interrupting.
Actually I guess, once in a while, all of us need to take a break.

After the relentless pursuit of wealth and success, maybe we find that no matter how hard we try, we still couldn't make it or it has become too much of a chore to chase after all these. We get disgrunted with the whole process. We even have doubts with ourselves and that no one is infallable, that the minibond and Madoff saga can happen to anyone, you and me.

Our current status is only temporary, we manage to be at the right place and at the right time or rather we did not happen to step on any landmines yet.
So in the end you realise that all these pursuits are not important, in fact they have become a chore and we are just plain lucky.

You start to look around, you are thankful of the things that you still can do, that you are still able to enjoy doing. You are thankful that you still have your family, friends and loved ones by your side. You are thankful that you are not involved in the nasty saga and you do not have to worry about your next meal.

Thus, you are at peace with yourself and wealth and success does not matter anymore. Whether you have it or not, you are Happy and Contented. :)

So continue doing what you enjoy and live life with a relaxed and contented heart. :)

Veru

December 16th, 2008, 05:28 PM

Sorry for interrupting.
Actually I guess, once in a while, all of us need to take a break.

After the relentless pursuit of wealth and success, maybe we find that no matter how hard we try, we still couldn't make it or it has become too much of a chore to chase after all these. We get disgrunted with the whole process. We even have doubts with ourselves and that no one is infallable, that the minibond and Madoff saga can happen to anyone, you and me.

Our current status is only temporary, we manage to be at the right place and at the right time or rather we did not happen to step on any landmines yet.
So in the end you realise that all these pursuits are not important, in fact they have become a chore and we are just plain lucky.

You start to look around, you are thankful of the things that you still can do, that you are still able to enjoy doing. You are thankful that you still have your family, friends and loved ones by your side. You are thankful that you are not involved in the nasty saga and you do not have to worry about your next meal.

Thus, you are at peace with yourself and wealth and success does not matter anymore. Whether you have it or not, you are Happy and Contented. :)

So continue doing what you enjoy and live life with a relaxed and contented heart. :)

True my friends ... but while we may follow different paths some of us seek the same nirvana ... thus I admire & attempt in a small way to follow in the footsteps of a business guru .. Warren B .... ensure that all your business ventures & enterprises are profitable & share the wealth with your stakeholders .. because if you make losses then many more will suffer due to your actions .... make as much as you wish in an ethical business-like manner , and in your golden years, gift away as much as you wish to chartiable purposes close to your heart ..

A book I read as a keen young freshman undergrad shaped my business philosophy .. The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism (1904-5). ... by Max Weber ...

Weber wrote that capitalism evolved when the Protestant (particularly Calvinist) ethic influenced large numbers of people to engage in work in the secular world, developing their own enterprises and engaging in trade and the accumulation of wealth for investment. In other words, the Protestant ethic was a force behind an unplanned and uncoordinated mass action that influenced the development of capitalism. This idea is also known as "the Weber thesis".

In The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, Weber argues that Puritan ethics and ideas influenced the development of capitalism. Religious devotion, however, usually accompanied a rejection of worldly affairs, including the pursuit of wealth and possessions. Why was that not the case with Protestantism? Weber addresses this apparent paradox in the book.

To illustrate and provide an example, Weber quotes the ethical writings of Benjamin Franklin:

Remember, that time is money. He that can earn ten shillings a day by his labor, and goes abroad, or sits idle, one half of that day, though he spends but sixpence during his diversion or idleness, ought not to reckon that the only expense; he has really spent, or rather thrown away, five shillings besides. ... Remember, that money is the prolific, generating nature. Money can beget money, and its offspring can beget more, and so on. Five shillings turned is six, turned again is seven and threepence, and so on, till it becomes a hundred pounds. The more there is of it, the more it produces every turning, so that the profits rise quicker and quicker. He that kills a breeding sow, destroys all her offspring to the thousandth generation. He that murders a crown, destroys all that it might have produced, even scores of pounds.(Italics in the original)

Weber notes that this is not a philosophy of mere greed, but a statement laden with moral language. Indeed, Franklin claims that God revealed to him the usefulness of virtue.

To emphasize the work ethic in Protestantism relative to Catholics, he notes a common problem that industrialists face when employing precapitalist laborers: Agricultural entrepreneurs will try to encourage time spent harvesting by offering a higher wage, with the expectation that laborers will see time spent working as more valuable and so engage it longer. However, in precapitalist societies this often results in laborers spending less time harvesting. Laborers judge that they can earn the same, while spending less time working and having more leisure. He also notes that societies having more Protestants are those that have a more developed capitalist economy

LittlePig

December 17th, 2008, 02:24 AM

Anyone remembered Meredith Whitney and what she predicted on 31 October 2007?

An excerpt from an article "The End" written by Michael Lewis (of Liar's Poker, anyone read it? shctaw??) on Portfolio.com:

"Then came Meredith Whitney with news. Whitney was an obscure analyst of financial firms for Oppenheimer Securities who, on October 31, 2007, ceased to be obscure. On that day, she predicted that Citigroup had so mismanaged its affairs that it would need to slash its dividend or go bust. It’s never entirely clear on any given day what causes what in the stock market, but it was pretty obvious that on October 31, Meredith Whitney caused the market in financial stocks to crash. By the end of the trading day, a woman whom basically no one had ever heard of had shaved $369 billion off the value of financial firms in the market. Four days later, Citigroup’s C.E.O., Chuck Prince, resigned. In January, Citigroup slashed its dividend."

The link to the article, which is 9 pages long:

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom#page1

hayata1972

December 17th, 2008, 02:37 AM

True my friends ... but while we may follow different paths some of us seek the same nirvana ... thus I admire & attempt in a small way to follow in the footsteps of a business guru .. Warren B .... ensure that all your business ventures & enterprises are profitable & share the wealth with your stakeholders .. because if you make losses then many more will suffer due to your actions .... make as much as you wish in an ethical business-like manner , and in your golden years, gift away as much as you wish to chartiable purposes close to your heart ..

A book I read as a keen young freshman undergrad shaped my business philosophy .. The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism (1904-5). ... by Max Weber ...

Weber wrote that capitalism evolved when the Protestant (particularly Calvinist) ethic influenced large numbers of people to engage in work in the secular world, developing their own enterprises and engaging in trade and the accumulation of wealth for investment. In other words, the Protestant ethic was a force behind an unplanned and uncoordinated mass action that influenced the development of capitalism. This idea is also known as "the Weber thesis".

In The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, Weber argues that Puritan ethics and ideas influenced the development of capitalism. Religious devotion, however, usually accompanied a rejection of worldly affairs, including the pursuit of wealth and possessions. Why was that not the case with Protestantism? Weber addresses this apparent paradox in the book.

To illustrate and provide an example, Weber quotes the ethical writings of Benjamin Franklin:

Remember, that time is money. He that can earn ten shillings a day by his labor, and goes abroad, or sits idle, one half of that day, though he spends but sixpence during his diversion or idleness, ought not to reckon that the only expense; he has really spent, or rather thrown away, five shillings besides. ... Remember, that money is the prolific, generating nature. Money can beget money, and its offspring can beget more, and so on. Five shillings turned is six, turned again is seven and threepence, and so on, till it becomes a hundred pounds. The more there is of it, the more it produces every turning, so that the profits rise quicker and quicker. He that kills a breeding sow, destroys all her offspring to the thousandth generation. He that murders a crown, destroys all that it might have produced, even scores of pounds.(Italics in the original)

Weber notes that this is not a philosophy of mere greed, but a statement laden with moral language. Indeed, Franklin claims that God revealed to him the usefulness of virtue.

To emphasize the work ethic in Protestantism relative to Catholics, he notes a common problem that industrialists face when employing precapitalist laborers: Agricultural entrepreneurs will try to encourage time spent harvesting by offering a higher wage, with the expectation that laborers will see time spent working as more valuable and so engage it longer. However, in precapitalist societies this often results in laborers spending less time harvesting. Laborers judge that they can earn the same, while spending less time working and having more leisure. He also notes that societies having more Protestants are those that have a more developed capitalist economy

Well said Lord Veru.

hayata1972

December 17th, 2008, 02:39 AM

shctaw

December 17th, 2008, 03:11 AM

Too many things to read, cannot cover all.

But the link article is worthy to take a closer study. I am following the Dollar Index which form a H & S formation. It is falling off the cliff.

End of the dollar? Imagine gaining 5% from DJIA and losing 6% on exchange rate.

Wall street cheers only if you spend in US dollar, if you sell DJIA and buy SGD $ you lost 1%. I think the Fed is making everyone a suckers. Whether you are in USA or not you got scam by the Fed printing press.

Anyone remembered Meredith Whitney and what she predicted on 31 October 2007?

An excerpt from an article "The End" written by Michael Lewis (of Liar's Poker, anyone read it? shctaw??) on Portfolio.com:

"Then came Meredith Whitney with news. Whitney was an obscure analyst of financial firms for Oppenheimer Securities who, on October 31, 2007, ceased to be obscure. On that day, she predicted that Citigroup had so mismanaged its affairs that it would need to slash its dividend or go bust. It’s never entirely clear on any given day what causes what in the stock market, but it was pretty obvious that on October 31, Meredith Whitney caused the market in financial stocks to crash. By the end of the trading day, a woman whom basically no one had ever heard of had shaved $369 billion off the value of financial firms in the market. Four days later, Citigroup’s C.E.O., Chuck Prince, resigned. In January, Citigroup slashed its dividend."

The link to the article, which is 9 pages long:

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom#page1

Veru

December 17th, 2008, 03:19 AM

shctaw

December 17th, 2008, 03:26 AM

Imagine EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, HKD & SGD all floated against the toilet paper, all will end together........................

End of the Money.

Time to study Kondratiev wave.

In retrospect Lord Macau was correct ... the USD ride was over last week ...now one should be onto the EUR (or ?) bandwagon again .. the USD is yet again heading towards its role as the :toilet: of the world :lol:

pp123

December 17th, 2008, 09:10 AM

those doing business, should always focus on their biz. Stock mkts is distracting. Last thing a businessman need is a lack of focus.

Easy money weakened the hard-work ethics.

sounds like sg

bigbird72

December 17th, 2008, 11:40 AM

sounds like sg

and HK. Any place where there is Chinese.

In ancient Chinese and Japanese society pecking order, traders/merchants are a notch above the untouchables....hahaha....

shctaw

December 17th, 2008, 11:44 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKlBJavw_X4&feature=channel_page

Sub-prime may end up just like a peanut if what coming next is true...............2009 may not be a jolly good year after all.

bigbird72

December 17th, 2008, 05:10 PM

CLSA Asianomics Infofax

Publication Date: Wednesday, 17-Dec-2008

Are we there yet?
*
This is the final Triple-A of 2008. In it we are giving a taster of our soon to be published 1Q09 Eye on Asian Economies. This will be titled Are we there yet? And other crisis questions and attempts to answer questions that we have been asked by investors, our sales colleagues and some that we have asked ourselves. The answers are not comfortable reading: our fear is that the upturn in global growth will be delayed until towards the end of 2010.

In the meantime Asia is facing the most hostile international trade environment for at least 30 years. We expect negative growth in both the US and Europe for both 2009 and 2010. On the back of this we expect negative 2009 growth for six of the eleven Asian economies that we forecast. Three will contract again in 2010, all will grow below trend. These forecasts are despite aggressive rate cuts and quantitative easing in the US, UK and Japan and fiscal stimuli everywhere.

In this environment two countries stand out: China and India. Though our forecasts for both next year are below consensus, at 5.5% and 5.3% respectively, the gap between their economic performance and that elsewhere in the region is getting wider. They are the only economies where we expect growth to be accelerating into end-2009. Elsewhere economies will only bottom in 2010.

These are aggressive forecasts but the present cycle is already no respector of precedent and will get more extreme during 2009. We believe that 2009 will be a profoundly deflationary year as weak demand growth and too much supply causes commodity price falls to be passed into global traded good prices. With CPI negative and growth weak monetary policy will become more extreme also. Expect aggressive rate cuts across Asia and following the adoption of quantitative easing in the US the same in the UK and its readoption in Japan. Finally we look at currencies. The dollar short squeeze might not quite be at its end, but it is approaching. Investors should use any dollar strength to accumulate euro.
*
Are we there yet details our 2009 and 2010 outlook in the form of eighteen questions and answers. In this Triple-A we cherry pick the most interesting. We start with the most important: Are we there yet? Where are we on the global growth cycle?
*
Are we there yet?
No, global recovery is still a long way off, despite the best efforts of emerging market governments and central banks. The US will lead the recovery because it is the only economy big enough to do so (Europe is big but is herself hostage to a recovery in global exports). And we are at a least a year from an upturn in its investment cycle. Even when recovery starts, because the US upswing will be led by investment not consumer spending, it will leave many of Asia's consumer durables manufacturers struggling.*
Only in India and China do we envisage a meaningful recovery in GDP growth before 2H10. China's recovery will be underpinned by its government pushing monetary and (more importantly) fiscal expansion. India's upturn should be broader and more led by the private sector thanks to her low dependence on exports and the strength of corporate balance sheets. The problem is that neither country is sufficient as a source of regional demand to drag the rest of Asia in its wake. This is clear in the case of India. As Figure 1 shows, as a trading partner for the rest of the region it falls some way short of achieving "critical mass". China is a different matter. As Figure 1 shows it is the most important trading partner for three of the other ten countries in the region and is in the top four for all of them. But China's acceleration will come from infrastructure spending and such programs have only a small import component i.e. bad news for regional exporters.
*

*
What should we expect for the US?
The key issue for the US is how quickly the mountain of debt on household balance sheets can be repaid sufficient to allow the normal cyclical mechanisms that will cause the economy to recover to operate. The problem is that the amount of debt that needs to be repaid is without precedent (Figure 2); we estimate the overhang at US$1.5tn or 20% of annual disposable income.
*
Debt repayment requires cuts in discretionary spending. Discretionary spending in the US has been falling since March 2009. This will continue as falling confidence and tight lending attitudes encourage/force households to increase savings. The early 1990s recession saw a period in which household spending on durables fell for 18 months. The debt overhang now is much larger. We expect that total consumer spending will fall by 2.1% YoY in 2009 and again by 1.1% in 2010. Non-residential investment has already capitulated. This leaves us forecasting that US GDP will contract by 1% 2009 and 0.4% in 2010 despite an improvement in net trade and rising government infrastructure spending.
*

*
What about Europe?
Europe does not have the same debt problems as the US but growth indicators have, in the last six months, fallen off a cliff. The fall in the German IFO business sentiment index from peak to trough thus far is greater than any since German reunification indicating this downturn for Europe is already turning out to be the worst in more than twenty years.
The other problem is the unbalanced nature of Euroland growth, which has been export led because domestic demand has been fundamentally weak in this cycle; at the peak of the last European growth cycle real consumer spending grew by 4% YoY against 2.2% YoY (3Q05) this time round. The importance of highly cyclical export industries to Europe's growth means that prospects remain poor while the US is in recession. And though the ECB has finally moved to more aggressive monetary policy easing, fiscal policy remains fragmented and nationalistic. The upshot is we expect Euroland GDP to contract by 1.5% this year and by 1% again in 2010. The highly leveraged UK economy will do worst still.
*
What will be the first signs of recovery?
The next US cyclical upswing will be lead by corporate not household spending as businesses operating in an extremely low interest rate environment start to renovate the capital stock.
*
For this to happen profits first need to recover. Second, the interest rate and risk environments need to be appropriate to allow incremental cash flow to feed into increased investment rather than balance sheet improvement. For the moment profits in aggregate are still falling. They were 10.5% of GDP in 3Q09 compared with 10.7% in 2Q09.
*
However as wage growth slows and falling commodity prices improve the US terms of trade, US profits will stabilise, then start to increase and precurse an upturn in investment. In our forecast this capex recovery starts in the second half of 2010, however it will be very tentative because of persistent risk aversion. And Asian exporters will be slow to feel the initial benefit. The upturn will start in corporate not household spending. And as the main way that firms are able to grow profits in a recession is by cutting wages the immediate outlook for Asian exports is poor. Even at end-2010 we fear that US spending on consumer durables will be falling.
*
Markets predict recoveries early, so the time to buy is?
The typically held belief is that markets discount recovery six or nine months ahead. However statistical evidence of this is limited. Between 1950 and 1969 the S&P 500 typically bottomed only one quarter ahead of the trough in growth. Performance was more hit and miss in the 1970s and 1980s. The market bottomed in late 1974 around three months ahead of the growth acceleration in 1975 but on other occasions the market appeared to lag the economy. The predicative ability was no better in the last twenty years. On our cycle timings investors should be defensively positioned through to the end of 2009.
*
What's been happening with the dollar?
The dollar's long decline from 2002 to July 2008 reflected the fact that the creation of money outside of the conventional credit creation mechanisms of deposit taking banks was disproportionately denominated in US dollars. And the US current account deficit recycled these dollars into the international economy extremely efficiently. A superabundance of synthetic dollars depressed their price relative to that of other fiat currencies in the same way that it depressed their price relative to goods, services and commodities.
*
The reversal of this process has been key to understanding currency movements since July which have been too large and too rapid to be easily explained by shifts in economic or short rate expectations. Instead the dollar has been caught in a short squeeze. On the supply side dollars have been destroyed faster than any other currency because more had been created and the breakdown of trust between financial institutions occurred first and fastest in respect of their dollar claims. As the supply of dollars relative to other currencies has shrunk their price has risen: the dollar has appreciated versus other fiat currencies. However the speed with which the dollar has appreciated not only reflects that its supply has been contracting. As risk tolerance has collapsed and trust has deserted the financial markets the demand for dollar cash has expanded.
*
At some point this process will come to an end. As more and more dollar claims are destroyed the speed at which dollar liquidity is shrinking will slow relative to that of the next most populous currency in the liquidity pyramid: the euro. We expect that there is one last leg lower for the euro but that will be it. From end-1Q09 to end-2009 we expect the euro to outperform the dollar. Our quarterly forecast for the major currencies is shown in Figure 3. Investors should go long euro when it shows signs of having decoupled from negative EU economic news, this will be the start of a good bull run. We fear that Asian currencies will underperform both US$ and euros through to end-2009.

bigbird72

December 17th, 2008, 05:23 PM

Banks will lend you money when you dont need it....

$2b in govt funding for SMEs runs into hurdles - Banks reluctant to lend despite govt schemes: companies

Business Times, The (Singapore) - Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Author: Chew Xiang

(SINGAPORE) Over $2 billion in government funding support for local companies hasn't managed to clear the credit clog, said participants at a seminar yesterday organised by the Singapore Manufacturers' Federation.

The seminar, featuring presentations by Spring Singapore and DBS Bank, was to publicise the government's recently enhanced financing schemes for SMEs and to get feedback from companies.

Participants - mostly from small and medium-sized companies and from the manufacturers' federation - said credit lines were still being pulled and that applications for the various schemes weren't getting approved by banks, which remain reluctant to lend.

Just 7 per cent of SMEs benefited from government-funded financing schemes, according to the recent SME Development Survey 2008 report.

This is despite the government assuming up to 80 per cent of the default risk for several schemes, as well as increasing the amount that could be borrowed through participating financial institutions.

One consultant, who specialises in arranging business funding for smaller companies, said a number of the 14 or so financial institutions participating in Spring Singapore's funding schemes were turning away applications as they had no money to lend. 'There seems to be a gap between what Spring is trying to achieve and what the banks are doing,' he said.

Seah Hwee Kia, vice-president of enterprise banking at DBS Bank, assured the seminar that the bank's 'credit criteria have always been the same considerations whether it's boom time or downturn,' adding that in marginal cases, 'if there is a risk sharing factor (by the government) that might incentivise the bank to take a little more risk.'

He urged businessmen to work with their bankers and to provide detailed business plans. 'To the bank, cash flow is very important. We also want to know what you are doing to mitigate the conditions,' he said.

Others questioned what they said were high application and processing fees charged by banks - $500 or one per cent of the amount sought, whichever is higher - in some of the schemes.

Mr Seah said businesses should consult their bankers - in some cases such fees could even be waived, and if fees were levied there was a 'good chance' the loans would be approved, he said.

Chew Mok Lee, group director of enterprise promotion at Spring Singapore, said the agency was monitoring applications received for its various funding schemes and is working closely with banks involved.

Its Enterprise Development Centres would try to help small companies with the application process, which some participants said was onerous. 'We will also be working with the MTI to maybe adjust or look at the interest rates (charged),' she added.

bigbird72

December 17th, 2008, 05:40 PM

bigbird72

December 17th, 2008, 07:06 PM

Click link for the rest of 7

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.market_gurus.fortune/index.html

8 really, really scary predictions

Dow 4,000. Food shortages. A bubble in Treasury notes. Fortune spoke to eight of the market's sharpest thinkers and what they had to say about the future is frightening.

Nouriel Roubini Known as Dr. Doom, the NYU economics professor saw the mortgage-related meltdown coming.

We are in the middle of a very severe recession that's going to continue through all of 2009 - the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It's the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There's no going back, and there is no bottom to it. It was excessive in everything from subprime to prime, from credit cards to student loans, from corporate bonds to muni bonds. You name it. And it's all reversing right now in a very, very massive way. At this point it's not just a U.S. recession. All of the advanced economies are at the beginning of a hard landing. And emerging markets, beginning with China, are in a severe slowdown. So we're having a global recession and it's becoming worse.

Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak - with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5% - that it's going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010.

For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It'll be hard and challenging enough. I wish I could be more cheerful, but I was right a year ago, and I think I'll be right this year too.

Veru

December 17th, 2008, 07:22 PM

infinity88

December 18th, 2008, 01:30 AM

You are the BIG bird
We are mere mortals .... I have been telling all & sundry that CASH IS KING for the past 12 months
NOW ---- We just love to play the odds Sir ! So though you choose to stay away ...let the bad boys invest !!

But it seems that there are people who think keeping cash might not be a wise move.

Physical GOLD is the new KING?

infinity88

December 18th, 2008, 01:39 AM

Great Eastern Holdings Ltd, the insurance arm of Singapore's Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, said it had an indirect exposure of about S$64 million (US$43.93 million) to Madoff.

Any other local firms having exposure to Madoff??

hayata1972

December 18th, 2008, 02:35 AM

hayata1972

December 18th, 2008, 02:46 AM

hayata1972

December 18th, 2008, 03:34 AM

As the Singapore economy poises itself for the full brunt of the global financial calamity, private home rents are set to ease correspondingly as more layoffs and capital flights ensue. Some experts are predicting that the drop could be as severe as over-20% in the next few months.

Negative events seem to have conspired against landlords in general. A weaker employment market, negative growths in exports, and fewer expatriate arrivals all add up to the sliding momentum of home rents.

Making matters worse is the impending completion of more condominiums in the prime districts. For example, another 681 units at the Sail @ Marina Bay, 172 units at St Regis Residences, and 110 units at Paterson Residence will be available for immediate occupancy from early next year onwards.

The rent fall may not have appeared to be very drastic in the recent months, however, as the full impact of the recession starts to kick in later on, the fall may exacerbate.

It is very common today to see real estate agents having advertised an apartment for lease for a few months without any results. The gap between the landlords’ asking rents and the expectation of prospective tenants is growing wider each day.

For example, a renovated 1,650 sq ft unit at Pinewood Gardens at Balmoral Park is now asking for $6,000 a month or $3.64 per sq ft, but prospective tenants are only willing to pay $5,000 per month.

Veru

December 18th, 2008, 03:58 AM

But it seems that there are people who think keeping cash might not be a wise move.

Physical GOLD is the new KING?

What says King Midas aka Bro Shctaw ?? Is cash king and gold emperor ?

pp123

December 18th, 2008, 04:03 AM

If recession going to last until 2010, CPF cuts needed for most companies to reach there. If not, some companies will die halfway.

CPF-cuts muscle their way back to NWC agenda - Economists believe move is likely though some say it may add to pain

Business Times, The (Singapore) - Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Author: Arthur Sim

(SINGAPORE) The National Wages Council will reconvene in early January, about four months ahead of schedule, with cuts in employers' contribution to members' Central Provident Fund (CPF) likely to be on the agenda.

While CPF cuts are not a dead certainty, economists that BT spoke with believe this is likely.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had said as recently as November that any cuts to the CPF scheme in the immediate term 'would make things even gloomier.'

However, in a statement released yesterday, NWC said that an increasing number of companies are facing issues of 'low demand and overcapacity and are looking at cost cutting measures to cope with the severe business downturn'.

NWC chairman Lim Pin also said: 'Given the weakening economic situation, there is a need for the NWC to take stock of the new situation and review its May guidelines to help companies and workers manage the downturn.'

Among other things, NWC had in May recommended that companies consider giving a one-off special lump sum payment to rank-and-file workers, as well as improve productivity through innovation, job re-design and stepping up training.

On possible CPF cuts in January 2009, Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: ' The decisive shift in the balance of risks thus necessitates a different policy response now, compared to six months ago, when the labour market was tight and the NWC's recommendations were intended to deal with high inflation.'

With the spectre of deflation now expected for 2009, Mr Kit said that whether a CPF cut actually takes place will largely depend on incoming data in the job market, in particular the fourth quarter job numbers. 'These will give a first taste of the speed of deterioration in the labour market, which has held up relatively well so far,' he added.

National University of Singapore economist Tilak Abeysinghe also believes that a CPF cut is imminent. And in the arsenal of the cost-cutting measures that can be implemented, ' The CPF is the major instrument that the government can use,' added Professor Abeysinghe.

Currently, the employers' contribution stands at 14.5 per cent. And depending on the severity of the economic downturn, Professor Abeysinghe believes this could be cut to as low as 10 per cent. 'Cutting wage costs to companies would be better than retrenchments,' he added.

The last time CPF cut employers' contribution was in October 2003, in the wake of the Sars crisis. Then, the CPF rate had been cut from 36 per cent to 33 per cent with employees contributing 20 per cent and employers' contribution cut by three percentage points to 13 per cent.

The employers contribution was only restored in July 2007 to 14.5 per cent.

If the government does decide against any CPF cut, it could be, as Mr Kit suggests, because it could result in 'unintended consequences'. For example, earlier studies by Citigroup found that CPF cuts may have aggravated the 'woes' of the middle class, even if they did help preserve jobs.

Mr Kit also highlighted that many use their CPF to pay housing loans and pointed out that with an ageing population, CPF savings become even more crucial. 'Cuts may not be sustainable or desirable in the long run,' he added.

Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak also said that any CPF cut now would adversely affect the purchasing power of those looking to buy a home, 'especially the middle class'.

Already, he noted that changes in 2006 required that excess CPF contributions to the Medisave account could not be used for housing through the Ordinary Account but had to go into the Special or Retirement Account instead.

NWC could simply be recomme<textarea name="message" id="vB_Editor_001_textarea" rows="10" cols="60" style="display:block; width:540px; height:250px" tabindex="1" dir="ltr">[QUOTE=bigbird72;29522670]If recession going to last until 2010, CPF cuts needed for most companies to reach there. If not, some companies will die halfway.

CPF-cuts muscle their way back to NWC agenda - Economists believe move is likely though some say it may add to pain

Business Times, The (Singapore) - Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Author: Arthur Sim

(SINGAPORE) The National Wages Council will reconvene in early January, about four months ahead of schedule, with cuts in employers' contribution to members' Central Provident Fund (CPF) likely to be on the agenda.

While CPF cuts are not a dead certainty, economists that BT spoke with believe this is likely.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had said as recently as November that any cuts to the CPF scheme in the immediate term 'would make things even gloomier.'

However, in a statement released yesterday, NWC said that an increasing number of companies are facing issues of 'low demand and overcapacity and are looking at cost cutting measures to cope with the severe business downturn'.

NWC chairman Lim Pin also said: 'Given the weakening economic situation, there is a need for the NWC to take stock of the new situation and review its May guidelines to help companies and workers manage the downturn.'

Among other things, NWC had in May recommended that companies consider giving a one-off special lump sum payment to rank-and-file workers, as well as improve productivity through innovation, job re-design and stepping up training.

On possible CPF cuts in January 2009, Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: ' The decisive shift in the balance of risks thus necessitates a different policy response now, compared to six months ago, when the labour market was tight and the NWC's recommendations were intended to deal with high inflation.'

With the spectre of deflation now expected for 2009, Mr Kit said that whether a CPF cut actually takes place will largely depend on incoming data in the job market, in particular the fourth quarter job numbers. 'These will give a first taste of the speed of deterioration in the labour market, which has held up relatively well so far,' he added.

National University of Singapore economist Tilak Abeysinghe also believes that a CPF cut is imminent. And in the arsenal of the cost-cutting measures that can be implemented, ' The CPF is the major instrument that the government can use,' added Professor Abeysinghe.

Currently, the employers' contribution stands at 14.5 per cent. And depending on the severity of the economic downturn, Professor Abeysinghe believes this could be cut to as low as 10 per cent. 'Cutting wage costs to companies would be better than retrenchments,' he added.

The last time CPF cut employers' contribution was in October 2003, in the wake of the Sars crisis. Then, the CPF rate had been cut from 36 per cent to 33 per cent with employees contributing 20 per cent and employers' contribution cut by three percentage points to 13 per cent.

The employers contribution was only restored in July 2007 to 14.5 per cent.

If the government does decide against any CPF cut, it could be, as Mr Kit suggests, because it could result in 'unintended consequences'. For example, earlier studies by Citigroup found that CPF cuts may have aggravated the 'woes' of the middle class, even if they did help preserve jobs.

Mr Kit also highlighted that many use their CPF to pay housing loans and pointed out that with an ageing population, CPF savings become even more crucial. 'Cuts may not be sustainable or desirable in the long run,' he added.

Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak also said that any CPF cut now would adversely affect the purchasing power of those looking to buy a home, 'especially the middle class'.

Already, he noted that changes in 2006 required that excess CPF contributions to the Medisave account could not be used for housing through the Ordinary Account but had to go into the Special or Retirement Account instead.

NWC could simply be recommending wage restraint or even wage cuts. However the government has already taken the lead with wage cuts for senior civil servants.

'If a CPF cut does take place, perhaps the government can consider some form of CPF top up in the Budget to compensate for the loss of income,' said Mr Kit.

'It may need to restore some form of a social safety net,' he added.

i think we should let nature takes it path.
Inflated/imported demand has created a lot of bad cholesterol.
This is a good time to flush them away. Only the prudent ones will remain once winter is over.

Switching some JTCs to REITS, I think was a bad move.....

pp123

December 18th, 2008, 04:09 AM

and HK. Any place where there is Chinese.

In ancient Chinese and Japanese society pecking order, traders/merchants are a notch above the untouchables....hahaha....

Is this crisis signify the end of path....it will reset to the ancient order.
Especially for US, the kind of shit they are in, I wonder how will the average American view a banker or broker , 5 years down the road......

teng

December 18th, 2008, 08:15 AM

Hi, been a fan of this forum. Thought this was a good chance to participate.

Anybody interested in getting the SME loan or interested to know what is the typical profile of those companies that got the loan can give me a pm. Our company have tried and succeeded before.

infinity88

December 19th, 2008, 03:00 AM

Business Times - 19 Dec 2008

Most serious loss from blowouts is that of trust
By SIOW LI SEN

A DISCLOSURE by the insurance arm of OCBC Bank on Wednesday on its exposure to Wall Street fraudster Bernard Madoff ended with the assurance that it 'will have no material impact on the group'.

Great Eastern Holdings (GEH), 87 per cent owned by OCBC, said that its exposure of about $64 million represents 0.14 per cent of the group's total assets of $45 billion as at Sept 30, 2008. But GEH also said that unit Lion Fairfield, acting as an agent, has sold about US$45 million of the Fairfield Sentry fund through private banking channels to accredited investors. Fairfield Sentry fund is reported to have placed US$7.3 billion solely with Madoff who was arrested last week in what US prosecutors said was a US$50 billion Ponzi scheme to defraud investors.

Retail investors who invested in the LionGlobal Flexi Fund too will suffer some loss. The LionGlobal Flexi Fund, which is sold to retail investors, has an investment of about $350,000 in the Fairfield Sentry fund. This investment represents less than 1.5 per cent of the LionGlobal Flexi Fund's portfolio as at Dec 11, 2008. Similar statements of 'no material impact' have also been made by some of the 10 financial institutions (FI) which sold the failed Lehman-linked products. Almost 10,000 retail investors bought products linked to now-bankrupt US investment bank Lehman Brothers, amounting to $501 million.

While the exposure is regarded as insignificant when placed against the billions of dollars of assets of the various FIs, the negative fallout is severe.

Since September when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, the FIs have had to devote expensive management resources on complaints of mis-selling, answer to the regulator and repair their tarnished reputations.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), also on Wednesday, revealed that it is interviewing senior managers of the 10 FIs as part of its investigations into the claims of mis-selling. The regulator, which has been pressing for the rapid conclusion into complaints of investors, said that all the FIs have teams working long hours to meet its review targets. In some cases, these teams comprise 100 to 120 case officers, the MAS said. That's a lot of people, who otherwise could be engaged in more productive work.

In addition, a whole battery of external consultants have been hired to advise on the issues. They include senior accountants and senior lawyers, including one of the most feared litigators in town, Davinder Singh, senior counsel and chief executive of Drew & Napier. All have to be paid for.

This has not included the legal challenges which the FIs will find themselves facing from some deep-pocketed aggrieved investors.

The most serious impact from these financial blowouts is arguably the loss of trust and confidence in our FIs, and probably the hardest to restore.

infinity88

December 19th, 2008, 03:06 AM

Business Times - 19 Dec 2008

Sale of Kallang River hotel plot delayed
URA says release of the site will be deferred to June 2009
By UMA SHANKARI

THE Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has deferred the release of a hotel site along Kallang River from this month to June 2009. The site was originally due to be made available for December 2008, as part of the government's plans to transform the Kallang Riverside into a waterfront lifestyle precinct by the edge of the city.

'URA is currently working with other agencies to finalise the detailed planning and development conditions of the Kallang River site to relate to the broader plans for Kallang Riverside and, as more time is needed, the release of this site at Kallang River on the reserve list will be deferred to June 2009,' the agency said yesterday.

The deferment 'makes sense' as the site is unlikely to be triggered in the current market conditions even if it is made available, market watchers said.

URA also announced yesterday that a commercial site at the corner of Stamford Road and North Bridge Road is now open for application under the reserve list system.

The site contains three historical buildings - Capitol Theatre, Capitol Building and Stamford House - that are to be retained and restored for use. The Capitol Theatre, for one, is required to be restored into an arts or entertainment-related performance venue, said URA.

And to strengthen the hotel cluster in the area, the developer of the site will be required to develop a minimum of 40 per cent of the total gross floor area (GFA) for hotel use as well.

Analysts said that the site is unlikely to see interest anytime soon. 'This is an irreplaceable site in terms of its location and heritage value but the timing may be inappropriate to realise its full potential,' said Ku Swee Yong, director of marketing and business development at Savills Singapore.

'I don't think the site will be triggered in the next six months,' said Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.

Other than the poor economic outlook, potential bidders are also likely to be deterred by a few other factors, he said. For one, the conservation element might put off some developers. Others are likely to be deterred by the fact that some of the GFA has to be devoted to hotel use.

Developers are also not too keen on the 'two envelope' system, under which the site is being sold, Mr Mak said. Under such a system, the government first picks out developers whose concepts gel with its vision, then awards the site to the highest bidder.

Analysts also expressed concern that if the government keeps releasing sites on the reserve list, there could soon be too many sites on the list.

shctaw

December 19th, 2008, 03:49 AM

What says King Midas aka Bro Shctaw ?? Is cash king and gold emperor ?

I only into Gold, Properties & Cash.

No stock and share in 2009.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1157/1168581157_92eb8b637c_o.jpg

http://signaveritae.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/r_eagle_lib_20amero_pl.jpg

Rumour that USA has secretly ship $800b "Amero" to China to prepare for the finale of the "Demise of the US Dollar".

If US Fed will to declare US dollar worthless, China will be upset as Chinese hold the most US dollar debt.

It may happen in 2009 if not later. I think USD$100 will only worth $2 Amero. 98% of all wealth denominated in US dollar will be robbed. It will make the $50B scam look like a a drop of water in the ocean.

http://bobmccarty.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/nau-amero-coins-8-17-07.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG0fu2YXeKA

bigbird72

December 19th, 2008, 03:59 AM

buy businesses. stock is a share of a business.
this issue is valuation.

I only into Gold, Properties & Cash.

No stock and share in 2009.

I will buy put option of indexes every 3 months as a hedge against the properties.

Just bought HS 14600 put option & 13200 put option expire in Feb 2009.

Will buy again when this options expired.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Rumour that USA has secretly ship $800b "Amero" to China to prepare for the finale of the "Demise of the US Dollar".

If US Fed will to declare US dollar worthless, China will be upset as Chinese hold the most US dollar debt.

It may happen in 2009 if not later. I think USD$100 will only worth $2 Amero. 98% of all wealth denominated in US dollar will be rob. It will make the $50B scam look like a a drop of water in the ocean.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG0fu2YXeKA

shctaw

December 19th, 2008, 04:05 AM

http://laterminalrosario.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/amero.jpg

http://blog.artioswebcreations.com/wp-content/image0011.png

2008 version of $100 Amero.

I do not believe it when I knew about Amero in 2008 April. I just brush it aside.

When I saw the Feb using Billions of dollars to buy up businesses by using printed fiat currency, I start to worry.

A $100,000,000,000 bail out may end up like a $2,000,000,000 bail out if they have plan to devalue US dollar by 98% from the start..

Remember Fed is not a government org, it is just like FEDEX. A profit oriented company form by bankers.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/20/NAFTA_logo.png

cnud

December 19th, 2008, 04:38 AM

There will be war if what shctaw predicts come true..

shctaw

December 19th, 2008, 05:09 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wp6TrTKse4&feature=PlayList&p=BEE36D82E025FEAD&index=5

13 Mar 2008 secret meeting to impose Martial Law if Amero cause turbulent.

Take a moment to look at this video. Look like a game show.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quygS5GoadU

shctaw

December 19th, 2008, 05:18 AM

A secret meeting of Congress discusses immanent martial law.
On March 13th 2008 there was a secret closed door meeting of The United States House Of Representatives in Washington. In the history of The United States this is only the fourth time a secret meeting was held by the house. Even though Representatives are sworn to secrecy by House Rules XVII, some of the members were so shocked, horrified, furious, and concerned about the future of America by what was revealed to them inside the secret meeting, that they have started to leak this secret information to independent news agencies around the world. The mass media said almost nothing about the secret meeting of the House, mentioning only one of the items being discussed. (The new surveillance techniques that are going to be used by the U.S. Government to watch all American citizens). The story was first released in a newspaper out of Brisbane, Australia revealing the contents of the secret U.S. Government meeting and plans for America including all of it’s citizens. Shortly there after, David J. Meyer from Last Trumpet Ministries found it and made it more available for the world to see.

Here is what was revealed:

The imminent collapse of the U.S. Economy to occur sometime in late 2008
The imminent collapse of the U.S. Government finances sometime in mid 2009
The possibility of Civil War inside the United States as a result of the collapse
The advance round-ups of “insurgent U.S. Citizens” likely to move against the government
The detention of those rounded up at The REX 84 Camps constructed throughout the United States
The possibility of public retaliation against members of Congress for the collapses
The location of safe facilities for members of Congress and their families to reside during massive civil unrest
The necessary and unavoidable merger of The U.S. with Canada and Mexico establishing The North American Union
The issuance of a new currency called the AMERO for all three nations as an economic solution.
Except for a few hundred thousand U.S. Patriots, most Americans have no clue what has really been going on within The United States over the past 100 years, and the sad thing is that most do not want to know the truth. The further you look into the rabbit hole, the deeper it gets. Go to any currency conversion site and convert U.S. dollars to Euros so you can see for yourself the massive decline of the dollar. Look at how much money is and has been spent on the Iraq War to date, ($12 billion per month). Look at our currency and when it stopped being backed by gold.

The Federal Reserve is not federal but a private bank who does not have Americans best interests at heart. We no longer have any manufacturing really based out of America and there is no way that our economy can survive this incredible strain very much longer. The IRS strong arms every American yearly with income taxes, yet there are no laws saying an income tax is to be paid.

The CIA is involved in everything from global drug trafficking and covert military missions, to assassinations around the world and including U.S. Soil. Look at JFK for instance. It did not take long after JFK announced that he was going disband the CIA that he was shot in Texas. America’s new StasiThe Department Of Homeland Security is and has been slowly eradicating our rights for a few years now. based organization called

House Bill H.R. 1955/S-1959 was read by the senate and then sent to DHS for some reason, but is now back and sure to pass. Once passed, this bill introduced by Jane Harman (D/CA), will be the proverbial last nail hammered into every American patriots coffin. H.R. 4279 or the Prioritizing Resources and Organization for Intellectual Property Act of 2008 which was recently passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, will give the government draconian powers to do just this. This legislation gives the government the power to seize property that facilitates the violation of intellectual property laws. The legislation also mandates the formation of a formal Intellectual Property Enforcement Division within the office of the Deputy Attorney General to enforce this insanity…

It has been revealed that F.E.M.A. has been building internment camps all over America granting Halliburton a massive $385 million dollar construction contract to make this happen. Most of these sites only need refurbished because they are mostly closed prisons, old WW2 internment camps still intact and other facilities taken over by the government. Some people have referred to them as F.E.M.A. Death Camps where the infamous Red list/Blue Lists will be used to decide who goes where.

Whether you believe that The NWO/Illuminati/Globalization is real or not, there is a lot of proof that exposes definite plans or plots by the rich, political and religious elite to bring on an era of the end times. It is almost like some individuals are trying to make bible prophecy come true in their own sick and twisted ways. Not to mention that the world only has about 10 to 15 years of drinking water left before the wars fought for oil today will be fought for water in the near future. It has been said that these powers want to depopulate the planet of over 30% of it’s human inhabitants in the coming years. Examine all of the executive orders that have been signed into place allowing the president to basically become dictator in control of all government from tribal to federal in the event of any national emergency.

If you did not know, In late 2006, Congress revised the Posse Comitatus Act and the Insurrection Act to make it far easier for a president to declare martial law. Those changes were repealed at the end of this January as part of Public Law 110-181 (HR 4986), the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (signed into law by President Bush on January 28, 2008). Unfortunately it is not the great victory in which one might think because of the total militarization of all local and State police forces all across America.

Will there be martial law? Is martial law coming soon to America? When you see law enforcement being armed with automatic weapons, bullet proof vests and riot gear in small towns that have not had a murder or crime in years, then you have to ask yourself why.

The United States has more people locked up in prisons today than Russia and China combined. It comes out to one in every hundred Americans is behind bars. Our once great country that our ancestors fought and died for has become exactly the tyrants they were fighting. Fascists! When has America ever used words like Homeland? Never!

If you spend a few weeks reading all the info, watching the videos and following the links at The U.A.F.F., you will then have a better understanding of what has led to The Decline And Fall Of America. Remember that Knowledge is power! Learn, look, listen, read, share, prepare, train, stock up on food and water supply for one year.

Fill your pantry with non perishable foods, medicines, cooking oils, tinned meats and veggies. Flour, oats dried corn peas, beans and lentils.. Teach your self how to preserve food for storage. Check out your local potable/ drinking water supplies, non perfumed chlorine bleach is a good sterilizer for water, about 2 teaspoons full per 2 gallon bucket, stirred well and allowed to stand for at least 24 hours with a lid on it or until it no longer smells of bleach. Boiling water helps but it is not always enough to kill off the bacteria which can resist high temperatures.
(There are healthier ways to treat water - The Infinite Unknown)

Americans have been warned for years of the things to come, but have blindly looked away from the truth, which has been available for all to see. There are no more excuses not to prepare for the possible future. The time to act is now before it is too late.

B.A. Brooks
March 13, 2008

stingraytan

December 19th, 2008, 05:52 AM

its only a fine line between being chicken little and a sage...

gave up reading newspaper long time ago (other than for sports) as its hard to keep a positive farame of mind when all news are bad..

now with gurus showing such a bleak picture, its kinda tuff to work out our financial plans isnt it...

stst

December 19th, 2008, 07:09 AM

No. of DPS units..

DJ Singapore:10,450 Uncompleted Ppty Units Under DP Scheme At Nov

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

December 18, 2008 23:45 ET (04:45 GMT)

DJ Singapore:10,450 Uncompleted Ppty Units Under Payment Plan Nov

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--The Singapore government said Friday that 10,450 residential units that were sold but are uncompleted were built under a deferred payment scheme as of Nov. 30.

Under the scheme, implemented during the property slump in 1997 and suspended in 2007, buyers of new properties were able to make a downpayment of 10% or 20%, with the rest due only when a project was completed - typically about three years later.

According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority, developers of 605 private housing projects, comprising 72,384 units, were granted approval to sell the units under the plan.

As of Nov. 30, 48,814 units had been completed. From the 23,570 uncompleted units, 18,208 have been sold, and 10,450 units were still under the scheme, the agency said.

That number can change over time if developers don't extend the scheme if a unit is resold by the buyer before completion, it added.

bigbird72

December 19th, 2008, 08:30 AM

No. of DPS units..

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-119.html

see the breakdown in the annexes. 2009 got 4560. 2010 and 2011 got 4300 units.

2009 DPS quite safe IF prices remains above 2006 levels. 2010 later DPS will be likely to be negative equity.

But for multiple property owners still on DPS, may be harder to get financing. Lower Loan-to Valuation also bad for DPS owners. With biz and jobs situation not good, banks likely to tighten more in 2009.

pinkcow

December 20th, 2008, 03:43 AM

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-119.html

see the breakdown in the annexes. 2009 got 4560. 2010 and 2011 got 4300 units.

2009 DPS quite safe IF prices remains above 2006 levels. 2010 later DPS will be likely to be negative equity.

But for multiple property owners still on DPS, may be harder to get financing. Lower Loan-to Valuation also bad for DPS owners. With biz and jobs situation not good, banks likely to tighten more in 2009.

2009 TOP seems to hold the bulk of the dps, could this mean that the majority of units included were sold close to/at the peak prices btwn jan-aug 2007? If that's the case wouldn't they already be underwater?

bigbird72

December 20th, 2008, 06:15 AM

2009 TOP seems to hold the bulk of the dps, could this mean that the majority of units included were sold close to/at the peak prices btwn jan-aug 2007? If that's the case wouldn't they already be underwater?

2009 DPS abt 44%+ of total DPS. not bulk. Likely to be sold in late 06 and early 07, assuming 3 year construction.

Peak is in mid 07. Sharp move in 1H07, So 2009 DPS can be close to being underwater.

Faster construction likely to bring forward TOPs so 2H09 would see more TOPs.

Earlier DPS may have secure loans already, just waiting for disbursement.
Those waiting for better days, would have their plans backfired on them when the economy deteroriated further.

IF these DPS units flow back to resale markets, these may add to price pressure.

Anyone knows how to put the DPS no. in perspective? Like compared to what no?

hayata1972

December 20th, 2008, 08:10 AM

2009 DPS abt 44%+ of total DPS. not bulk. Likely to be sold in late 06 and early 07, assuming 3 year construction.

Peak is in mid 07. Sharp move in 1H07, So 2009 DPS can be close to being underwater.

Faster construction likely to bring forward TOPs so 2H09 would see more TOPs.

Earlier DPS may have secure loans already, just waiting for disbursement.
Those waiting for better days, would have their plans backfired on them when the economy deteroriated further.

IF these DPS units flow back to resale markets, these may add to price pressure.

Anyone knows how to put the DPS no. in perspective? Like compared to what no?

Singapore says 10,000 homes bought via deferred payment

Reuters - Friday, December 19 SINGAPORE,

Dec 19 - Singapore said on Friday there were 10,450 uncompleted private homes purchased under the country's deferred payment scheme, revealing for the first time the potential number of homes that may be returned to developers.

About 4,560 of these homes are scheduled for completion next year while another 2,540 will be ready in 2010, the Urban Redevelopment Authority said in a statement.

Singapore introduced the deferred payment scheme in 1997 in a bid to boost the then-moribond property market. The scheme, which was withdrawn in 2007, allowed buyers to buy property under construction without lining up bank financing in advance so long as they made a downpayment of 10-20 percent.

The recent fall in Singapore home prices, coupled with the financial crisis that has made banks reluctant to lend, has led to concerns about a jump in the supply of unsold homes due to the failure of buyers to get loans.

"The data is provided to enable the public to make a better informed assessment of the private housing market," URA said.

Email Story

bigbird72

December 20th, 2008, 11:41 AM

Depends on how low prices drop below late 2006 levels.
2009 DPS can be problematic.

2009 will see more job losses. When TOP, condos will find it difficult to rent out.

Should be scared when REDAS use earlier projects like SAIL and PI as examples of no DPS default. Vested interest talking.

URA can collect monthly sales on new projects. No time to breakdown by individual projects..hahhaa....Anyway, real estate prople should be very free now...haha

Size of the DPS behemoth - 10,450 sold & uncompleted private homes under the DPS now; analysts worried about those getting TOP in 2010-11

Business Times, The (Singapore) - Saturday, December 20, 2008
Author: Uma Shankari

SOME 10,450 sold and uncompleted private homes are now under the deferred payment scheme (DPS), according to official data released yesterday.

Of the amount, close to half - 4,560 units - will be completed in 2009, while another 2,540 homes will be completed in 2010, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said. Under the DPS, which was introduced by the government in October 1997 and withdrawn in October 2007, the bulk of the purchase price of a property is due only after a project obtains its temporary occupation permit (TOP).

The data was welcomed by both analysts and the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas). Over the past several months, many market watchers and analysts have been estimating how big an impact the DPS will have on developers' cashflow and earnings if buyers default on their homes as TOP approaches.

'I think it provides a clearer picture as to the extent of the problem,' said Citigroup's head of Singapore equity research, Chua Hak Bin. 'And it is good that the government acted to stop the system when it did. If not, things would have got a lot worse.'

Said Redas: 'URA data, together with data compiled by Redas, helps to allay concerns that speculators may repudiate their DPS purchases at below-market prices as the completion date nears.' In its statement, Redas highlighted 10 projects - including City Developments' The Sail and Keppel Land's Park Infinia - where the DPS was offered but full payment was still made to the developers once TOP was obtained.

Redas also said that while units may be affected by market sentiments, sales contracts cannot be repudiated easily.

URA's data proves that the DPS scheme was 'very popular', Citigroup's Dr Chua said. To arrive at its numbers, URA did a survey among property developers of uncompleted DPS-approved projects. In total, developers of 605 projects, comprising 72,384 units, were granted approval to offer the DPS. Of this amount, there were 18,208 sold but uncompleted units as at end-November this year. And of this figure, 10,450 (57 per cent) were still under the DPS.

The fact that the bulk of DPS units will be completed in 2009 is cause for some concern, analysts said. '2009 is going to be a tough year for the economy, and there are 4,650 units under the DPS that will be completed,' said Ku Swee Yong, director of marketing and business development at Savills Singapore.

But assuming a three-year construction period, a large proportion of the units that will obtain TOP in 2009 were probably launched and sold in 2006 and early 2007, at prices that are relatively lower than today's level or the expected level in 2009. So even if the property market continues to weaken in 2009, the owners of these 4,560 units could still lease out the homes or sell them, analysts said. However, if developers had offered the DPS to many sub-purchasers when the original purchasers sub-sell the units, then defaults could be expected.

But for now, the real area of concern is thought to be the 2,540 units under the DPS that will obtain TOP in 2010. Of this number, 1,270 of the units are located in the core central region (CCR), which includes Sentosa and Marina Bay.

'Generally, I'm more concerned over the units which will receive TOP in 2010-2011, which could have been purchased in 2007 at the peak of the property market,' said DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee.

And while developers have the legal right to pursue buyers who walk away from their deals, it could be harder to do this when it comes to foreigners, said Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng.

Normally, about 75-90 per cent of uncompleted private residential units will be bought by Singaporeans, said DMG's Mr Lee. But in 2007, the proportion fell to 63-68 per cent, with the remaining purchases made by PRs, foreigners and companies. 'We see this segment as the most likely to return their units,' he said. His back-of-the-envelope figure puts the amount expected to be returned as possibly somewhere between 20-30 per cent.

URA said that it provided the data to enable the public to make a better assessment of the private housing market. 'This information was provided by developers in confidence and with the understanding that data for individual projects would not be released to the public. Hence URA is only releasing aggregated data and not data for individual projects,' the government agency said.

'Conducting a survey of developers of all uncompleted DPS-approved projects requires a lot of time and resources from the developers as well as the government. Given that the number of uncompleted units sold under DPS is likely to decline as projects are completed over time, we will monitor the situation and consider whether there is a need to conduct further surveys in future,' URA said in response to a query from BT.

bigbird72

December 20th, 2008, 11:44 AM

10,450 deferred payment homes weigh on prices - Cash-strapped buyers may sell low if they can't get sufficient loans

Straits Times, The (Singapore) - Saturday, December 20, 2008
Author: Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent

PRICES in the the already fragile property market could be battered even more from next year if some of the 10,450 homes bought on deferred payment are dumped by cash-strapped buyers.

The danger is that when final payments are due at completion stage, buyers faced with falling values may just sell at fire-sale levels, putting even more pressure on prices.

And a key reason for buyers to dump units is that in today's tight credit markets, risk-averse banks will demand that buyers put in more of their own cash before they will agree to lending the balance.

Take a flat that was bought for $1 million with a deposit of $100,000. The buyer must provide $900,000 on completion but if prices have fallen too far, the bank will not come to the party with a loan for the full amount.

So the buyer either dips into his own pocket or cuts his losses and sells - likely into a falling market.

The numbers, revealed for the first time by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday, are sobering.

Two-thirds of the 10,450 uncompleted homes will come on stream in the next two years - 4,560 in 2009 and 2,540 in 2010.

They were sold from 2005 to this year. That includes a period when many properties were being snapped up by eager buyers with little regard for price.

Deferred payment was introduced during the Asian financial crisis to boost the market, but scrapped late last year. It was blamed for encouraging speculation, as buyers could secure a property for little cash down and then flip it for a profit before a brick had been laid.

Down payments are 10 to 20 per cent with the rest deferred until completion a few years down the track.

To make things worse, the URA said that the 10,450 new homes include sub-sale units.

They were likely bought at even higher prices from speculators, who had already flipped the units for a profit.

The figures also show that the homes are spread far and wide - about 4,000 each in the core central and city-fringe areas and the rest in the suburbs.

Analysts say that the real danger lies in the 1,270 prime units in the core central region that will be completed in 2010. These were boom-time buys.

Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng said possible defaults will likely come from people who bought at the height of the market last year.

'It is cause for concern but it is not a big problem when you look at it in percentage terms,' he said.

In contrast, projects slated for completion next year were bought in 2005 and 2006 when prices were not that high, so chances of defaults are slim, added Mr Tan.

Prime area projects in Orchard Road, Sentosa Cove and Marina Bay like Marina Bay Residences, One Shenton and The Orchard Residences were known to have lured the speculators.

Some of these projects also attracted consortia, which bought one floor at a time, but yesterday's data did not offer any insight into such buyers.

'This is the 'high-risk' group, particularly as banks have become cautious and demand has fallen,' said Standard Chartered economist Alvin Liew.

Jones Lang LaSalle's South-east Asia research head, Mr Chua Yang Liang, said: 'The 10,450 number seems large but...if buyers can get loans, the problem won't be as severe as some people think.

'But psychologically, buyers may see it as a reason to bring prices down.

Responding to the news, the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore said the figures released by the URA underscored the popularity of the scheme.

It maintained that the scheme was beneficial to the market and reminded buyers that although they can sell their units to other buyers on the market, they cannot easily repudiate sales contracts and return the homes they bought to developers.

hayata1972

December 21st, 2008, 02:20 AM

overlorden

December 21st, 2008, 03:58 AM

FROM WIKI:

In August 2007, rumors and conspiracy theories began circulating across the Internet regarding alleged United States Treasury-issued "amero" coins.

The inspiration behind these rumors may have been the posting of images of medallions created by coin designer Daniel Carr.[1] Carr, who designed the New York and Rhode Island 2001 statehood quarters, sells medals and tokens of his own design on his commercial website, "Designs Computed" (also known as "DC Coin").[1] Among his designs are a series of gold, silver and copper fantasy issues of "amero coins" ranging in denomination from one to one thousand.[1] The coins have the legend "Union of North America" on the back with his company's logo, a stylized "DC",[19] in small type.[20] Concerning his "amero" designs, he mentions on his website:

My goal with these coins is not to endorse a Union of North America or a common "Amero" currency. I fully support the United States Constitution, and I would not welcome (in any form) a diminishment of its provisions. I expect that these coins will help make more people aware of the issue and the possible ramifications. I leave it up to others to decide if they are in favor of, or against a North American Union. And I encourage citizens to voice their approval or disapproval of government plans that impact them.[21]

Unauthorized postings of images taken from his website have been reposted widely across the Internet, often being used as supposed "proof" of the amero coinage. Notably, white nationalist and former Internet radio talk show host Hal Turner ran a full article on his website about the "amero coin", claiming to have arranged for a United States Government minted "amero" to be smuggled out of the United States Department of the Treasury by an employee of that organization.[22]

Following Turner's assertions of federal minting of ameros, a web site marketing the curio coins released a statement debunking Turner's claims of a government cover up regarding Daniel Carr's amero products.[23] The urban legend investigating Web site Snopes also ran a further counter to Turner's claims, stating "neither the U.S. Mint nor the U.S. Treasury has a hand in creating these 'Ameros'. These coins are merely collectibles offered to the buying public by a private company in the business of manufacturing such curiosities."[24] Hal Turner claimed that Carr's website had been created in haste in a matter of days expressly to discredit his claim about the coinage. [25] However, Carr's designs have been available through his website since 2005,[26] and according to a WHOIS search at Network Solutions, the domain "dc-coin.com" was registered by Daniel Carr on 27 September 2005.[27] In October 2008, Hal Turner released a video showing an apparent 20 Amero coin, with claims that shipments of the currency had been sent to China. [28] Yet the coin in Hal Turner's video is identical to a medallion on Daniel Carr's "dc-coin" website, listed as "UNA 2007 20 Ameros, Copper, Satin Finish". [29]

[edit] Amero bills

On December 3, 2008, Hal Turner's blog featured what he claimed were genuine Amero bills. He displayed photographs of purported 20, 50 and 100 Amero notes. Turner did not identify how he obtained the images, saying only that "once again, my sources have come through." He claims that the "new currency is already being printed and quietly distributed around the world."[30]However, Pravda's website published in February 2008 the same Amero image Turner used. [31] Further, Abovetopsecret.com claims that these images are art from flickr user aleatorysort,[2] and are therefore fake.[32]

I only into Gold, Properties & Cash.

No stock and share in 2009.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1157/1168581157_92eb8b637c_o.jpg

http://signaveritae.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/r_eagle_lib_20amero_pl.jpg

Rumour that USA has secretly ship $800b "Amero" to China to prepare for the finale of the "Demise of the US Dollar".

If US Fed will to declare US dollar worthless, China will be upset as Chinese hold the most US dollar debt.

It may happen in 2009 if not later. I think USD$100 will only worth $2 Amero. 98% of all wealth denominated in US dollar will be robbed. It will make the $50B scam look like a a drop of water in the ocean.

http://bobmccarty.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/nau-amero-coins-8-17-07.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG0fu2YXeKA

bigbird72

December 21st, 2008, 10:06 AM

CLSA 1Q09 Forecast

How low do you go?

�� Singapore is already in technical recession and it will get
tougher from here for this highly cyclical economy.

�� We have cut our 2009 forecast to -2.6%; and we expect
negative growth again in 2010.

�� Investors should sell the S$ as MAS will formally adopt a
depreciation policy in April.

First round effects are bad enough
No-one would choose Singapore as an economy likely to ride out the worst
global environment for 30 years unaffected. The economy is extraordinarily
cyclical. When the margin on the re-export trade is included exports are more
than 100% of GDP. Key manufacturing sectors have been struggling when
global trade growth was good and will certainly perform poorly now that
global trade growth is slowing. The government has been very aggressive in
attracting financial service companies gearing the domestic service economy
directly into the global liquidity cycle. The economy is likely to prove more
volatile today than it did in 2001. And then Singapore growth was -2.4% after
being +10.1% the year before.
And there are second round effects to consider
On top of all of this there are second round effects to consider. Following the
lead of our Singapore research team we have written extensively on
Singapore’s overhang of high end residential property and commercial real
estate in the past. 2009 is the year when this vulnerability is crystallised; the
supply is becoming available and inflows of human capital are likely to slow.
In consequence preparing a forecast for Singapore for 2009 the only real
question is “how low do you go”. An updated Singapore projection for 2009
was announced in the Infofax on 27 November; since then global conditions
have weakened further. We now expect 2009 GDP growth of negative 2.6%.
But given all of the above (plus the usual volatility of Singapore economic
statistics) a number significantly lower is easy to justify.

One sobering aspect of this forecast is that we have assumed that the
government be aggressive in trying to support activity. This being
Singapore there is every reason to think that it will be done efficiently
(China and Singapore are streets ahead of the rest of Asia in their ability,
both financial and pragmatic, to implement policy). We expect an
aggressive fiscal stimulus. This appears in our forecast as a sharp swing
in public sector finances from surplus (in 2008) to deficit in 2009 (we
have assumed both infrastructure spending and tax hand backs). However
as Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has indicated, pump priming is
limited in its ability to support growth in an open economy such as
Singapore (indeed this is applicable to all of Asia’s open economies).
Consumption weak, capex weaker
Even with a series of tax hand backs (not yet announced but in our view
inevitable, the 2009 budget will be presented to Parliament on 22
January) we expect real consumer spending growth to slow from around
4½% in 2008 to only a little over 2% in 2009.
However it is investment about which one has to be most pessimistic.
One of our big concerns about 2008 was that company spending on
machinery and equipment had faltered as early as 1Q08 leaving spending
on transport equipment (imported thus largely neutral for GDP growth)
and an almost equally rapidly slowing construction sector to drive overall
fixed capital formation. Recession will see businesses cut back hard on
spending and even without a global slowdown the oversupply of property
would depress construction spending in 2009 and 2010. In consequence
we see a double digit decline in fixed capital formation. Numerically
contracting real net exports are the biggest drag on our Singapore
forecast but our numbers also include a fall in real domestic final sales as
happened in both 2002 and 2003.
Sell your Singapore dollars
One could never accuse the Singapore government of clinging onto
naively overoptimistic forecasts. Though our own projections are below
the government’s, the official forecast range is at least credible (well, the
lower end is) and official statements have conspicuously emphasised
downside risks to growth in recent months. While this may contribute to
depressed sentiment it represents prudent expectations management in
our view, especially where the ability of government to cushion the blow
is concerned.
This realism includes the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Its
November financial stability review warned of pressure on bank funding
and asset quality. The MAS ended its policy of appreciating the S$ at its
October policy meeting in anticipation of weak GDP growth curtailing
inflationary pressure. Although inflation is presently sticky (the property
price component is still reacting to historical rent increases) it will come
down in 2009. With GDP contracting we expect the MAS formally to
adopt a policy of depreciating the S$ at its April policy meeting. As
always this will be within a trade weighted band meaning that (as we
expect Asian currencies to continue to slip vs the US$ even after the
dollar has topped out versus the euro) the S$/US$ rate will continue to
weaken. We have pencilled in S$1.65/US$ for end 2009.
Better in 2010 but not good
Our first look at economic trends in 2010 sees them better but still, in
absolute terms, very weak. We expect the economy to contract again.
Our 2010 GDP growth forecast is -1.3%.
This acceleration entirely reflects our faith in the Singapore
government’s ability to build things. Singapore, alongside most Asean
economies, must now be considered marginal capacity in a number of
previously important industries (electronics stands out here). It will
therefore be vulnerable as world traded goods prices fall. Our fear is
that the Singapore electronics industry may be all but non-existent in
two years time.

bigbird72

December 21st, 2008, 10:11 AM

^^ possible with most growth engines stalling or in reverse gear.

GDP = C + I + X + G

Only G supporting. How to offset the drop in the rest of the 3 components.

hayata1972

December 21st, 2008, 03:22 PM

Lord Veru!! Happy Birthday!!

:dance:

infinity88

December 22nd, 2008, 01:12 AM

Business Times - 22 Dec 2008

Firms shelve supply of 1,000 new apartments

Project development deferred; en bloc properties return to rental market
By ARTHUR SIM

(SINGAPORE) At least 1,000 projected new apartment units can be expected to be withdrawn from immediate supply in Singapore's property market, as properties that were sold en bloc in recent years are put back on the market for rental.

The latest of these is Lucky Tower at Grange Road which was bought by City Developments Ltd (CDL) in May 2006.

A CDL spokesman said that the entire development of 91 units has been leased to a master tenant that intends to sub-let the units.

According to data complied by Savills Singapore, Lucky Tower was expected to be redeveloped into a 178-unit condominium. However, with redevelopment pushed back, these units are not expected to come on to the market anytime soon.

Another development, the 192-unit The Grangeford at Leonie Hill, acquired by OUE in 2007, has also been put back on the rental market.

OUE is controlled by the Lippo Group and Malaysian tycoon Ananda Krishnan. Lippo Realty executive director Thio Gim Hock said that approximately 70 per cent of the units have already been leased, mainly to expatriates.

On why it decided to defer redevelopment, Mr Thio said: 'The market does not look good for this year or the next.'

It is understood that asking rents for The Grangeford start at about $3,500 for 1,110 square foot two-bedroom units and about $4,500 for a 1,700 sq ft three-bedroom unit.

The Pontiac Land Group has also started to lease out Pin Tjoe Court, which it acquired in September 2006. Senior vice-president (residential leasing) William Teh said that it expects to redevelop the site next year. 'Till then, we are offering very short-term leases, and this is not representative of typical rental in the market,' he added.

Frasers Centrepoint said that Flamingo Valley, which it acquired in early 2007, has been put on the rental market with close to 60 per cent of the 185 units leased out.

Other en bloc developments back on the rental market include Furama Towers, Fairways Condominium, Sophia Court, and Lincoln Lodge.

The increasing number of en bloc sites put back on the rental market is expected to further depress already weakening rentals.

Referring to this 'hidden leasing supply', Japanese investment house Nomura said: 'The move by developers to return en bloc units back to the leasing market to cover to a degree of the holding costs is not unanticipated.'

In the case of Grangeford, assuming a gross rent of $3.40 psf for the 396,483 sq ft apartment block, Nomura estimates that it could secure net income of $14.6 million, equating to a 2.3 per cent yield over its $625 million acquisition price, 'providing some relief to covering the site's holding costs'.

Regardless of 'hidden leasing supply', rentals are already expected to fall. Still, Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak believes that the 'hidden supply' of leasing units will not make much of a dent on the rental market. For starters, he notes, many of these en bloc developments have already reached a state of disrepair.

Pointing out that the 108-unit Fairways is about 10 per cent leased, he says that many of the units have been 'stripped bare'.

He also noted that these units have short leases and tenants may be given only one-month's notice to vacate.

Another consequence of deferred en bloc redevelopment is the impact this has on future supply.

Savills Singapore estimates that based on the en bloc deals between 2005 and 2007, over 23,000 new units could be added to the market.

But, as Nomura notes, supply has been increasingly pushed to 2012. As at the third quarter of this year, it found that some 16,762 units are scheduled for completion in 2012, versus the previous quarter's estimate of 14,179 units.

Based on an analysis of official data since Q499, it also found that actual completions lagged behind forecast completions.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has also clarified that while developments are deemed 'under construction' in its database, this does not necessarily mean construction has begun.

A spokesman for URA said that it considers a project to be 'under construction' once the Building and Construction Authority records indicate that a project has been issued a permit to commence structural works.

As at Q308, there are 10,007 units under construction. URA said: 'As developers do not have to inform the government of actual ground-breaking after obtaining the permit to commence structural works, URA does not have information on the number of units, expected to be completed in 2009, which have actually broken ground.'

However, it added that it understands that actual construction for a project typically begins within 1-3 months after the developer obtains the permit to commence structural works for the project.

The number of developments that could be deferred will remain unknown. CB Richard Ellis executive director Jeremy Lake pointed out: 'Even if the property has been demolished, a meaningful number of projects will be delayed as construction costs are expected to fall over the next 18 months.'

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

bigbird72

December 22nd, 2008, 04:07 AM

hayata1972

December 22nd, 2008, 04:23 AM

^^ old news.

URA data for new units completing construction in year:

2009: 10,007
2010: 6,049

(Developers/contractors would want to build faster to get back money faster. Not slower.)

Rentals market dont look ground based on supply alone. Much less with worsening job and biz situation.

It can only lead to one thing.... The imminent property market crash.... Estimated recovery may only come after 2011 or even later....

If the casinos turn out to be white elephants.... If electronic sector dissapears from Singapore.... If biotech in Singapore makes no new discovery....

Will end up worst than japan.... Property market will take a very long time to recover.

I hope Old man Lee knows what he is doing.... China does not need Singapore as a gateway to the west.... They already have Hongkong.

Maybe Singapore has to lead the way as the number 1 money washing centre of the world to survive this round.

bigbird72

December 22nd, 2008, 04:26 AM

Angmohs heading back home. Involuntary since home economies worse than SG.

Korean won drop 35% against SGD. Father on Korean pay cannot support family in SG.
Koreans are leaving. Bad for the Bayshore condos.

Int'l schools' student numbers holding up - But they expect fewer students next year as expats lose jobs, return home
Business Times, The (Singapore) - Monday, December 22, 2008
Author: Chuang Peck Ming

IF expatriates are leaving Singapore, they appear to be leaving their kids behind - at least, for now.

While expats are losing their jobs and being sent home amid leaner economic times - quite a few, at least, have been fired in the financial industry - international schools here appear to be unaffected.

Virtually all five schools that BT checked with recently reported no unusual change in their student population - or even coming enrolments.

'There were some departures, there were also some arrivals (recently),' said Singapore American School communications director Beth Gribbon. 'But the numbers were the same as they were at the same time last year.'

She said that, so far, the fallout of the global financial crunch has no impact on the school, which has 3,800 students.

'Our number of students is not dramatically different from before,' she said.

The same goes for the Australian International School, Swiss School and the ISS International School Singapore.

'Our repatriation rate has been around 10 per cent annually and so far, the numbers seem to indicate so,' said Angelia Toh, director for admissions and marketing at ISS.

Only EtonHouse International, popular for pre-school classes, indicated that it lost some Korean students because of the shaky economic situation back in South Korea.

'These students were in Singapore with their mothers, while their fathers remained in Korea to support their children's education,' said Ng Gim Choo, managing director of EtonHouse. ' The reason cited for the family returning home was the uncertainty in the economic climate in Korea.'

While international schools seem largely unaffected by the current economic conditions, moving firms dealing with expats here reportedly are seeing an increase in demand for their services.

Several saw their businesses getting a boost in recent months. Geometra Worldwide Movers told The Sunday Times that they now anticipate at least 15 expats relocating monthly, up from two to three before September when the global financial crisis was sparked off.

Most of its clients are families heading back to the United States, while others are returning to Europe and Australia.

The number of expats moving back home is likely to rise next year - and this may finally have an impact on international schools.

' The entire global economy has been affected by the economic downturn,' Mrs Ng said. 'Naturally, there is every likelihood that there will be some impact in the education sector as well. We anticipate the effects to be felt next year, though we do not anticipate a significant downturn.'

Expecting 'a few more withdrawals' from its school next year, EtonHouse plans to concentrate on consolidation rather expansion in 2009.

Added Ms Toh: 'At the present moment, things seem to be in status quo with just a handful of our students repatriating. But we anticipate the effect will be more prominent next year.'

Even the Australian International School, which is pushing ahead with its expansion to build a new senior campus, conceded that its student numbers will be hit if the financial situation worsens.

Kim Douglas, the school's director for marketing and enrolments, said that the Australian International School currently has 2,145 students, with another 320 joining in January. 'There are around 180 leavers, which is normal for this time of the year,' she said.

But for the Swiss School, things are still looking up. The number of students registered there for January 2009 'is still on the rise', according to Callie Wong, the school's administration manager.

cnud

December 22nd, 2008, 04:38 AM

Wat is the difference between LIBOR/SIBOR vs overnight swap rate?

august5

December 22nd, 2008, 05:25 AM

Maybe Singapore has to lead the way as the number 1 money washing centre of the world to survive this round.

And wouldn't that help to prop up the property market? :nuts:

pp123

December 22nd, 2008, 05:33 AM

cnud

December 22nd, 2008, 07:03 AM

WOnder why URA starts releasing data about DPS.... reinstate DPS?

august5

December 22nd, 2008, 07:14 AM

WOnder why URA starts releasing data about DPS.... reinstate DPS?

Wouldn't that be making the problem worse? :ohno:

sesami

December 22nd, 2008, 07:38 AM

Reuters
Published: December 22, 2008

DBS Group Singapore, the biggest lender by assets in Southeast Asia, said Monday that it plans to raise about 4 billion Singapore dollars, or $2.74 billion, through a rights offering to shore up its capital.

The bank will offer shareholders one new share for every two existing shares at 5.42 dollars apiece, which is a discount of about 45 percent to Friday's closing share price. DBS said it would lift a suspension on trading in its shares at 2 p.m. on Monday.

The Singapore state investor Temasek, DBS's largest shareholder with 27.6 percent, has agreed to subscribe for up to one-third of the rights issue, the bank said in a statement.

The bank also said its fourth quarter earnings could show a moderate decline from the third quarter, when it reported a 38 percent fall in quarterly net profit to $379 million and said it would cut 900 jobs, or 6 percent of its staff.

"The capital-raising exercise will further strengthen DBS's balance sheet at a time when investor preference globally has shifted in favor of banks with higher capital levels, especially core capital levels," the Singapore bank said.

DBS said it has initiated the fund raising "from a position of strength" and that its business continued to perform well despite the global economic downturn.

DBS raised 1.5 billion dollars in May through a sale of preference shares that paid investors 5.75 percent per year.

The rate was higher than the 5.05 to 5.1 percent offered by rivals United Overseas Bank and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., which also sold preference shares to strengthen their capital around the same time.

bigbird72

December 22nd, 2008, 11:05 AM

Wouldn't that be making the problem worse? :ohno:

problem for who?

buyers dont see it as a problem.

ura should give more info to make market more efficient. monitor impact of its policy. dps is good during downturn. ura sits on its hands too long when dps became speculative tools during upcycle.

august5

December 22nd, 2008, 04:31 PM

problem for who?

buyers dont see it as a problem.

ura should give more info to make market more efficient. monitor impact of its policy. dps is good during downturn. ura sits on its hands too long when dps became speculative tools during upcycle.

As u said more info leads to greater efficiency.

DPS does not achieve this, either for buyers or sellers.

bigbird72

December 22nd, 2008, 05:54 PM

As u said more info leads to greater efficiency.

DPS does not achieve this, either for buyers or sellers.

DPS amplify the market signals...leads to overinvestment by property developers.

URA and Govt believes in their own sales talk....DPS was left "ON" too long...

bigbird72

December 22nd, 2008, 06:39 PM

CLSA: Median quarterly price v/s current bank valuations (indicative). S$ psf

1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 Bank Valn

City Square Resi 689 705 665 663 718 789 975 1,012 965 1,017 960 827

Citylights 678 661 673 678 687 885 1,077 1,156 1,128 1,104 1,200 1,100

Ferraria Park 677 660 556 555 600 655 710 717 694 704 591

Kovan Melody 534 555 548 569 582 600 729 754 759 749 742 685

One Amber 756 747 787 757 812 982 1,155 1,220 1,150 1,066 939 879

Park Infinia 930 904 963 949 1,165 1,393 1,498 1,500 1,419 1,419 1,441 1,277

Reflections 1,853 1,849 1,867 2,047 2,769 2,111 1,894

Rivergate 1,201 1,196 1,342 1,525 1,613 1,614 1,807 2,075 1,650 1,650 1,404 1,447

The Cosmopolitan 1,120 1,270 1,212 1,276 1,477 1,695 1,950 1,904 1,925 1,675 1,575 1,430

The Esta 715 701 690 671 792 902 995 1,050 1,100 953 910 843

The Metropolitan 778 816 774 1,000 1,060 998 980 925 836

The Quartz 495 495 491 522 549 652 662 729 737 721 705

The Sail 1,194 1,169 1,289 1,400 1,650 1,790 2,052 1,990 2,100 1,811 1,711 1,496

The Sea View 755 761 775 735 837 1,060 1,318 1,390 1,260 1,255 1,339 998

Source: URA

hayata1972

December 23rd, 2008, 01:03 AM

infinity88

December 23rd, 2008, 03:00 AM

22-Dec

DBS rights issue and the more than 10,000 deferred payment sales - provide the much needed wake up call that the worse is yet to come

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just back from a short break with the family in ShenZhen and Macau. Friends I met there shared anecdotal evidence that the economy is weakening fast. On the golf course, I was told that a normal caddy would do 2 flights per day but now its one flight every two or three days. The spas and karaoke lounges are also empty. In ShenZhen and Dongguang, the number of corporate failures is in the thousands as most of these are export oriented companies which have been impacted by the slowdown in the global economy. In Macau, the Venetian was impressive but the level of activity was slow....during and after the weekend. Anyway its an impressive casino and I am wondering whether our own IRs will even be able to come close in terms of granduer and casino traffic.

Back to the Singapore market, I was not surprised by the rally in the STI Index to pass the 1800 level. I also read in the newspapers this morning that some market watchers are calling that the worse is over and that markets have bottomed. This is being too optimistic....the market's strength is coming from thin trading where even on low volumes blue chip index stocks can rise. Banks and property led the bounce off the 1600 level but its another BEAR rally.....more downside ahead especially into Q1-2009.

Why am I still so bearish that the worse is yet to come ??

First the economic data from the US, EU, Japan and even China is getting worse and unemployment is rising. Even the World Bank and IMF chiefs are warning of an even worse 2009 compared to H2-2008. Second, the wave of hedge fund selling is NOT OVER.....and deleveraging is still continuing. Many of my friends who have invested in Hedge funds have been informed that redemptions are being frozen until the third quarter of 2009 because capital markets are depressed and illquid. This means that the hedge fund redemption selling is still not over. Thirdly, we see job redundancies rising and many companies shutdown production by one to two months because of a huge build-up of inventory.

The market probably had a wake up call that the worse is yet to come when DBS announced its huge rights issue today of 1:2 at $5.42 which would raise around S$4bn in new money. This is apparently not for acquisition but to strengthen its balance sheet with Temasek agreeing to underwrite one third of the issue. I have a few questions on the rights which given the weakness in the share price today probably means that other investors have similar concerns.

Firstly why is the discount on the rights so steep ? If the US$4bn is not for acquisition then does it imply some potential damage to DBS' balance sheet given the weak economy ? The fact that DBS was already trading at a price to book discount to OCBC and UOB means that the market was already cognizant of the poorer asset quality of DBS compared to the other two banks. The next concern by the market is that the other two banks would also be doing similar fund raisings in the near future.

Let me remind investors about the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis where our bank NPLs were more than 10% and the bank share prices traded to a low of 0.5 times price to book.....Is this crisis worse or better than the Asian Financial Crisis ? Many people including myself are of the view that this is the worse crisis since the great depression - so it should be worse than 1997 - this means higher than 10% NPLs and a possibility of trading below 0.5 times price to book. If our banks trade down to those levels and given there one third weighting in the STI Index - the index could fall to the 1200 level ! So dont be fooled by the recent firmness - its got no legs because market volumes are very low.

Market Commentary By:

Kevin Scully

hayata1972

December 23rd, 2008, 03:37 AM

hayata1972

December 23rd, 2008, 04:19 AM

OECD forecast deepens gloom as world stocks slip

AFP - Tuesday, December 23 PARIS (AFP) - - The world economic crisis could put 25 million people out of work, the OECD warned on Monday, as Japan's iconic Toyota auto company forecast its first ever operating loss and European stocks slipped.

The head of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris, Angel Gurria, took aim in an interview with France's BFM Radio at what he said had been "a truly scandalous failure of regulation" in the crisis.

"We're heading for a loss of... 20 to 25 million in the world as a whole between now and 2010," Gurria said, adding that a recession in the OECD's 30 industrialised economies would continue for much of next year.

"We predict a recovery at the end of 2009 and weak growth in 2010," he said.

Gurria added that European countries should "go beyond" the spending announced in their fiscal stimulus plans in order to match the billions being allocated in China, Japan and the United States to kickstart their economies.

The European Central Bank's top economist Juergen Stark also warned in an interview with a German regional daily that eurozone economies would contract in 2009 before having "a gradual rebound" at the end of next year.

The warnings came after the Toyota auto giant, which vies with GM for the crown of the world's largest automaker, said it faced an "unprecedented crisis" and expected a loss of 150 billion yen (1.69 billion dollars) this year.

It would be Toyota's first loss since it started reporting earnings in 1941.

Toyota's forecast was matched by downbeat news from Europe, where the CAC 40 stock market index in Paris plunged 2.31 percent at the close, the Frankfurt DAX was down 1.23 percent and the FTSE in London slid 0.88 percent on pre-Christmas gloom.

Share prices were also down in early trading on Wall Street.

A poll in Germany showed consumer confidence in Europe's biggest economy has stagnated at less than half the rate at which it was in December 2007.

Russia's biggest car plant, Avtovaz, part owned by France's Renault, said it was suspending production for January because of the economic crisis.

In the eurozone economies, industrial orders were down 4.3 percent in October compared to September, falling by 15.1 percent year-on-year, data published by the European statistics office Eurostat showed.

And a report put out by the OECD warned that the world Internet economy could shrink next year as the semiconductor industry contracts by almost six percent and corporate customers make cuts in their budgets.

Despite the lengthening shadows, Tokyo's Nikkei stock market index gained 1.57 percent on Monday. In Hong Kong however shares dived 3.3 percent, Shanghai lost 1.52 percent and Sydney closed 1.6 percent down.

Toyota's forecast also came as new data in Japan, the world's second-biggest economy after the United States, showed a record drop in exports and the government forecast that the economy was getting worse.

"If we don't do anything, Japan will absolutely get mired down," Economy and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said of the data.

Hiroshi Watanabe, an economist at the Daiwa Institute of Research, said: "Japan has been hit by an unprecedented, sudden change in climate."

Amid nosediving oil prices, the world's biggest crude producer, Saudi Arabia, also said on Monday that it would cut government spending next year by 6.9 percent to 475 billion riyals (127 billion dollars).

Meanwhile there were fresh moves to stop the meltdown in the United States, with US president-elect Barack Obama adding 500,000 jobs to a 2.5-million-job creation goal and preparing a new stimulus package for the US economy.

In a newspaper interview, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown also promised to create at least 100,000 new jobs through a 10-billion-pound (14.7-billion-dollar, 10.6-billion-euro) investment in infrastructure.

The Bank of England's deputy governor John Gieve said in an interview with BBC television that the bank had under-estimated how serious the credit crunch would be even though it knew that "crazy borrowing" was taking place.

Gieve said that the Bank of England had predicted a correction as far back as two years ago, but he added: "We didn't think it was going to be anything like as severe as it turned out to be."

Economical disaster is going to hit the world. All countries will start to pump prime and look inwards for growth. Singapore has no hinterland to look inwards to.

If all countries start to create domestic jobs, Singapore, an export oriented country will be very redundent...

All leaders better be very creative this time round. This time they will really have to prove their worth.

hayata1972

December 24th, 2008, 01:52 AM

US economy shrinks as IMF warns of Great Depression

AFP - Wednesday, December 24 LONDON (AFP) -

- The US economy shrank by 0.5 percent in the third quarter, official data showed on Tuesday as Britain edged ever closer to a recession and the IMF's top economist warned of a second Great Depression.

The abrupt contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) in the world's largest economy, confirming a first estimate, was seen by analysts as marking the start of a steep downturn for the United States after GPD growth of 2.8 percent in the second quarter.

Britain's economy also shrank by 0.6 percent in the three months to September compared to the previous quarter, against a previous estimate of 0.5-percent contraction, the Office for National Statistics said.

Britain and the United States will be in recession if their economies contract again in the fourth quarter, according to the traditional definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

The IMF's top economist, Olivier Blanchard, warned governments around the world should boost domestic demand in order to avoid a Great Depression similar to the downturn that shook the world in the 1930s.

"Consumer and business confidence indexes have never fallen so far since they began. The coming months will be very bad," Blanchard said in an interview with the French newspaper Le Monde.

"It is imperative to stifle this loss of confidence, to restart household consumption, if we want to prevent this recession developing into a Great Depression," he added.

New data out in France offered some respite from the gloom, however, showing that household consumption of manufactured goods -- a key growth indicator -- rallied 0.3 percent last month after slumping in October.

"It is a first small Christmas present for the French economy," said Alexander Law, an economist at the Xerfi research centre in Paris.

But in Italy, retail sales figures went down 0.3 percent in October.

Denmark's economy contracted 0.4 percent in the third quarter and the Dutch economy showed zero growth, official data showed. Finland's unemployment rate rose to 6.0 percent in November from 5.8 percent a month earlier.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Polish central bank cut its key lending rate by 75 basis points to 5.00 percent, following a further cut in interest rates in Hungary on Monday by half a percentage to 10.0 percent.

The European Central Bank issued some heartening pre-Christmas data showing that the eurozone's current account deficit narrowed to 6.4 billion euros (9.0 billion dollars) in October from 8.8 billion euros in September.

News of weakening growth sent the British pound sliding under 1.0550 euros, nearing a record low of 1.0463 reached last week, as dealers bet on more interest rate cuts from the Bank of England and forecast parity with the euro.

The dollar also drifted lower against the euro and the yen in muted trading conditions ahead of the Christmas holidays. In late morning trading, the euro firmed to 1.3959 dollars, from 1.3944 dollars in New York late on Monday.

European stocks rose in early afternoon trading after the announcement of US GDP figures, with the FTSE 100 index in London up 0.80 percent, the Frankfurt Dax up 0.89 percent and the CAC 40 in Paris up 0.51 percent.

Asian stocks closed mostly down, with the Hong Kong stock market shedding 2.8 percent and Shanghai sinking 4.55 percent as a smaller-than-expected Chinese interest rate cut failed to boost market sentiment.

Oil prices also fell further to below 40 dollars a barrel in Asian trade, with New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in February, shedding eight cents to 39.83 dollars a barrel.

The contract had fallen to 39.91 dollars in New York on Monday.

Energy analysts were also keeping a close eye on a meeting of key world gas exporters in Moscow amid fears of a "gas OPEC" similar to the Vienna-based oil cartel that could raise natural gas prices.

In a keynote speech, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told the conference that the "era of cheap gas" for consumers was coming to an end because of the expense of developing new fields.

Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said: "We see in this forum an opportunity to build a solid organisation, which has in its foundation the same principles that gave birth to OPEC."

LittlePig

December 24th, 2008, 03:02 AM

Investor who lost big to Madoff kills himself
Investor who lost more than $1 billion of client money in Madoff scandal commits suicide

Adam Goldman and Tom Hays, Associated Press Writers
Tuesday December 23, 2008, 8:45 pm EST

NEW YORK (AP) -- A fund manager who lost more than $1 billion of his clients' money to Bernard Madoff was discovered dead Tuesday after committing suicide at his Manhattan office, marking a grim turn in a scandal that has left investors around the world in financial ruin.

Rene-Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet was found sitting at his desk at about 8 a.m. with both wrists slashed, NYPD spokesman Paul Browne said. A box cutter was found on the floor along with a bottle of sleeping pills on his desk. Police did not find a suicide note.

De la Villehuchet was one of several money managers and investors left reeling in the wake of Madoff's alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme, and his suicide demonstrates how the repercussions of this gigantic scam are intensifying by the day.

De la Villehuchet, 65, was a distinguished financier who came from a long line of aristocratic Frenchmen, and he tapped his connections in the world of European high society to attract clients to his firm, Access International Advisors. It was not immediately clear how he knew Madoff or who his clients were.

He grew increasingly subdued after the Madoff scandal broke, arousing suspicion among janitors in his Madison Avenue office tower Monday night when he demanded that they be out of there by 7 p.m. Less than 13 hours later, a security guard checked on him in his 22nd-story office suite. But de la Villehuchet was dead -- a trash can placed near his body to apparently catch the blood, Browne said.

His death came as swindled investors began looking for ways to recoup their losses. Funds that lost big to Madoff are also coming up against investor lawsuits and backlash for failing to properly vet Madoff and overlooking some red flags that could have steered them away. It's not immediately known what kind of scrutiny de la Villehuchet was facing over his losses.

De la Villehuchet (pronounced veel-ou-SHAY) comes from rich French lineage, with the Magon part of his name referring to one of France's most powerful families. The Magon name is even listed on the Arc de Triomphe in Paris, a world-famous monument that was commissioned by Napoleon in 1806.

"He's irreproachable," said Bill Rapavy, who was Access International's chief operating officer before founding his own firm in 2007.

The Frenchman's firm enlisted intermediaries with links to upper-crust Europeans to garner investors. Among them was Philippe Junot, a French businessman and friend who is the former husband of Princess Caroline of Monaco, and Prince Michel of Yugoslavia.

De la Villehuchet, the former chairman and CEO of Credit Lyonnais Securities USA, was also known as a keen sailor who regularly participated in regattas and was a member of the New York Yacht Club.

He lived in an affluent suburb in Westchester County with his wife, Claudine. They have no children. There was no answer Tuesday at the family's two-story house. Phone calls to the home and de la Villehuchet's office went unanswered.

Guy Gurney, a British photographer living in Connecticut, was friends with de la Villehuchet. The two often sailed together and competed in a regatta in France in November.

"He was a very honorable man," Gurney said. "He was extraordinarily generous. He was an aristocrat but not a snob. He was a real person. When he was sailing, he was one of the boys."

The two were supposed to have dinner last Friday but Gurney called the day before to cancel because of the weather. But during the call, de la Villehuchet revealed he had been ensnared in the Madoff deceit.

"He sounded very subdued," Gurney said.

Gurney said de la Villehuchet was happily married to his wife.

"I can't imagine what it's like for her now," he said.

bigbird72

December 24th, 2008, 03:15 AM

Future dont look bright for Marina Bay Sands...

Las Vegas Sands lays off 500 in Macau
Reuters, Tuesday December 23 2008

NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Las Vegas Sands Corp, which runs the world's largest casino in Macau, has let go 500 workers there and plans to cut back workers' hours as it suspends construction activity, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.
The layoffs, which amount to about 2 percent of the company's Macau staff, include 100 managers, the Journal said.
A Las Vegas Sands spokesman was not available for immediate comment.
Casino companies have suffered over the past year as the gambling boom in Las Vegas has fizzled, tight credit markets have jeopardized growth plans and the Chinese government has acted to slow the Macau gambling market.
Las Vegas Sands has been one of the casino operators hardest hit by the slowdown, which has decimated the stock market value of gambling companies.
Sands' problems represent a stunning development for billionaire Chief Executive Sheldon Adelson, who has seen the market capitalization of his company fall more than 94 percent since the start of the year.
Las Vegas Sands' shares, which have plummeted from more than $122 last December, closed at $5.79 on Monday on the New York Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Ilaina Jonas, editing by Maureen Bavdek)

infinity88

December 24th, 2008, 05:36 AM

Business Times - 24 Dec 2008

CityDev says it has not waived rights to buy South Beach stake
By KALPANA RASHIWALA

SINGAPORE - City Developments has clarified that it has not waived any of its rights to buy El-Ad Properties' stake in the consortium developing the South Beach project in Singapore.

'CDL has not waived any of its rights under the joint venture and will continue to consider any commercial proposal in the best interests of the CDL Group,' she added.

She was responding to a story published in BT on Dec 24 that said El-Ad is understood to be looking for buyers for its one-third stake in the South Beach project as well as its half-share in the Futura condo site at Leonie Hill Road.

The story reported that CDL is understood to have indicated that it welcomes new partners in the South Beach joint venture, implying it will not exercise its right of first refusal on El-Ad's stake.

bigbird72

December 24th, 2008, 06:58 AM

august5

December 25th, 2008, 02:24 PM

Sharing some nice stuff. :lol:

Sub prime crisis
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC31Oudc5Bg

Investment banker
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXBcmqwTV9s

august5

December 25th, 2008, 02:39 PM

Privatising profits, socialising costs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNYxTpEVQWc

Baby

December 26th, 2008, 11:31 AM

Private properties looking attractive

By Shila Naidu

THE recession has resulted in a 25-per-cent fall in private- property prices from their market peak, and with prices expected to dip further next year, there may be opportunities to pick up some bargains.

However, buyers of properties - whether for investment or occupancy - should do their homework before committing to such big-ticket items.

Here are 10 tips to keep firmly in mind.

1 CONSIDER LANDED

The executive director of HSR Property Group, Mr Eric Cheng, feels that if buyers are willing to fork out $1.2 million to $1.3million for a condominium, they should consider buying landed property instead.

Due to land scarcity in Singapore, there is always more demand than supply for landed property, which is not the case with condos, said Mr Cheng.

2 INSTALMENT RESERVE

Mr Cheng said it is important to invest within your means. Have a reserve of at least one year's worth of instalments in case of shocks, like a loss of income.

3 LEASING OR LIVING?

Mr Arvin Sylvester Lim, division director of Century 21 SHL Realty, said it is important to be sure if you plan to live in the property or rent it out.

If you are making it your home, the equation is simple: Find something that you like and can afford.

If you are looking to invest and rent out, do your research to see if there is good demand in an area, and if the rent will be enough to cover the instalment payment and still allow a profit.

4 DON'T WAIT TOO LONG

While one should hold back until one finds something ideal, Mr Lim does not encourage overspeculating on trends.

"Buying a house is not like buying a car. The moment you drive the car...the value drops, but with property the value can go up or down," he said.

Even though prices are expected to fall further, "a home is a must", Mr Lim said. He advises against pegging buying one to unpredictable market movements.

5 MAKE OFFERS FAST

Buyers who bought too many properties or can't afford to keep up with payments, given the weak economy, will be selling off their investments now, said Mr Shannan Govindarajoo, marketing manager at ERA.

He suggests you start looking and making reasonable offers as he thinks more buyers will be entering the market, which could mean prices for these "must-sell" properties may rise.

6 CHECK MASTER PLAN

Look at the Urban Redevelopment Authority's master plan and invest where the Government is pumping in money, said Mr Govindarajoo.

For instance, he thinks those interested in the Marina area should strike now, as prices are down by 40 per cent, compared to last year's.

Mr Lim said investing in property in that area will reap great returns when the integrated resort is ready as "a lot of the management staff will be living there, so rentals will be high".

7 SHOP FOR A LOAN

Banks are now becoming more cautious with making home loans and how much they are willing to lend, said Mr Govindarajoo.

He advised shopping around for a good home loan first, so that you do not commit yourself to a seller before knowing how much you have to work with.

8 PRICE VS VALUATION

Check the valuations of the property you are considering at different banks to make sure you?re getting a good deal, said Mr Govindarajoo.

9 OLDER CONDOS

Mr Parthiban Sadagopal, a Prop- Nex realtor, suggests buying a condo "between seven and 10 years old in the outskirts", like Pasir Ris or Tampines.

Judging from the trend seen after the 2003 recession, such condos are good buys for living in and investment, as you could hope to buy one at $400,000 to $500,000 now and sell it for up to $800,000 when the economy picks up.

Renting it out could fetch $3,000 a month as well.

10 DISTRICT 15

Keep your sights on the East Coast area of District 15, said Mr Cheng, as prices there are unlikely to dip drastically.

Good schools, malls and eateries add value, making it a good option for those who feel prime locations are too expensive. Meyer Road, Ceylon Road, Telok Kurau and Crane Road are some of the best places to buy a house, according to him.

Mr Govindarajoo agrees, saying District 15 is "evergreen".

bigbird72

December 26th, 2008, 12:26 PM

^^ Above all agents sales talk...

$3k for Tampines and Pasir Ris...still can get this rental next year???
Next year, will be lucky if can get rent out....

Resi will have a overhang of stale bulls in next 3 years...

If anything, just buy from banks.....dont bother with 'ai mai ai ma' sellers..

Non-resi seems to be better bet...

shctaw

December 26th, 2008, 03:12 PM

Happy boxing day everyone.

BB too humble, next year will be bad. I say $2k at most.

Just got back from HK, HK selling new properties 豪門 Le Billionaire with a poor location at Kowloon City.

If USD continue to drop and with HK dollar pegged to US dollare, we will have two toilet rolls instead of 1. Everyone in HK will become Le Trillionaire. Mr Macau must look at USD carefully.

^^ Above all agents sales talk...

$3k for Tampines and Pasir Ris...still can get this rental next year???
Next year, will be lucky if can get rent out....

Resi will have a overhang of stale bulls in next 3 years...

If anything, just buy from banks.....dont bother with 'ai mai ai ma' sellers..

Non-resi seems to be better bet...

Baby

December 27th, 2008, 01:59 AM

Weird market now.....e.g., rental at suburb same as cbd,...either latter under-priced or former over-priced :ohno:

cnud

December 27th, 2008, 02:20 AM

Weird market now.....e.g., rental at suburb same as cbd,...either latter under-priced or former over-priced :ohno:

Simple reason - demand for CBD living dipping because of the fallout from financial sector, which occupies huge percentage of CBD offices. Anyway, many expats I know don't really like living so near their workplace.

infinity88

December 27th, 2008, 12:12 PM

Expats with kids prefer to live near International Schools?

Americans prefer Woodlands area while Australians prefer Lorong Chuan area?

AK47

December 27th, 2008, 02:17 PM

These are just part of the reasons.

Remember before Sail TOP, Icon command rent of >7psf. It is the highest rental psf in Singapore. So it cant be lack of interest for CBD living.

Using Sail as indication CBD rent are low and comparable to surburb is incorrect. There are so many factors causing the Sail rental to be weaker than normal.

Construction
Poor living environment (near term)
Massive 1111 units of cannabilisation (this is the most serious)
TOP at the worse possible time

hayata1972

December 28th, 2008, 11:09 AM

More pay for products via instalments during tough times
Channel NewsAsia - Sunday, December 28
SINGAPORE: More Singaporeans are paying for their big—ticket items via credit card instalments during these tough times.

From July—November, some retailers reported a 10 per cent increase in the number of consumers who opted for monthly instalment payment.

Gain City’s marketing manager, Evonne Lee, said: "It kind of stretches the dollar in that sense and it gives the customer a lot more discretionary income. For example, if you buy, say, LCD which is worth $3,000 and you opt for a 24—month instalment plan — that works out to be about $125 a month; it makes the purchase very affordable."

Increasingly, younger customers are buying products and opting to pay via instalments. And they’re paying these instalments over a 12—month period.

Gain City expects that figure to grow, come next year. The company also expects another 20 per cent of customers to opt for instalment payments with repayment plans extended to 36 months.

But paying by monthly credit card instalments has landed a 42—year—old sales administrator in trouble. The man (who refused to be named) chalked up S$110,000 debt from buying home appliances.

He said: "That time, the instalment was just, maybe, about $500 only. I thought I could still afford more instalments. So I took up another instalment. Then, I thought (I) still could afford. I took some computer products, until it (instalment) accumulated to about $1,200 per month....that kept on accumulating until I reached a certain stage I found that it was too burdensome for me to service all the instalments."

Like him, many are turning to Credit Counselling Singapore for help.

Credit Counselling Singapore’s president, Kuo How Nam, said: "The risk to these people will be that moving forward and if the recession is very deep, and you see the number of retrenched people going up, these people will find difficulty in meeting their instalment plans. If you can, postpone the purchase. Better to be safe, rather than sorry later on."

In the last five months, there has been a 50 per cent jump in the number of Singaporeans turning to the centre for help on debt management.

— CNA/ir

hayata1972

December 28th, 2008, 11:15 AM

bigbird72

December 28th, 2008, 02:26 PM

landlubber

December 29th, 2008, 04:00 AM

I think Courts may not survive this crisis when the people (esp Malays) starts defaulting on their hire purchases...
isn't the credit risk borne by the credit card company?

landlubber

December 29th, 2008, 04:07 AM

I just looked up the nationproperty website and noticed that there is a December 2008 caveat lodged for Sanctuary Green condominium over at Tanjong Rhu that hit,

$656psf!!! Madness!!:ohno: 1281sqft unit closed at $840K!!!:ohno:

Can somebody verify what facing is this unit??
Tiara unit next to great world city transacted at $921 psf.

UE Square unit next to clarke quay transacted at $886 psf.

Both effectively freehold, so Sanctuary Green which is 99y LH doesn't look that cheap by comparison.

Is it time to buy, or is this just the start of the meltdown?

bigbird72

December 29th, 2008, 04:38 AM

isn't the credit risk borne by the credit card company?

those non-credit card instalment. Courts is a consumer finance company disguised as a retailer.

hayata1972

December 29th, 2008, 04:40 AM

Tiara unit next to great world city transacted at $921 psf.

UE Square unit next to clarke quay transacted at $886 psf.

Both effectively freehold, so Sanctuary Green which is 99y LH doesn't look that cheap by comparison.

Is it time to buy, or is this just the start of the meltdown?

Wow.... UE SQ and Tiara both at near 2006 prices already.... These are resale projects that have nothing much to do about the speculation.... If they have been pounded down to such low prices.... How would the speculated projects react when TOP is closing in?

Sorry to say, but it is definately the beginning of the meltdown.... 2009 will see the carnage of the DPS Completion Massacre.

bigbird72

December 29th, 2008, 04:46 AM

hayata1972

December 29th, 2008, 04:50 AM

those non-credit card instalment. Courts is a consumer finance company disguised as a retailer.

Yes, i heard that if the customers default their payments, courts will re-possess the items and resell them as display sets at lower prices. In this way, Courts can earn from the payments from the first customer that bought the item as well as the lower resale price of the item from the second customer.

Win-win for courts. But with 2009 crash coming, even display sets also will have a hard time selling.... My friend working in semi-con company told me that next year, electronics will be cheaper to boost sales...

bigbird72

December 29th, 2008, 04:57 AM

Yes, i heard that if the customers default their payments, courts will re-possess the items and resell them as display sets at lower prices. In this way, Courts can earn from the payments from the first customer that bought the item as well as the lower resale price of the item from the second customer.

Win-win for courts. But with 2009 crash coming, even display sets also will have a hard time selling.... My friend working in semi-con company told me that next year, electronics will be cheaper to boost sales...

bad times will see forced mergers and acq. thats means more job losses in 2H09.

hayata1972

December 29th, 2008, 05:10 AM

Now see voluntary sales. Next year will see more involuntary sales.

Activity in this mainly "long-only" forum also slowing...

I gotta admit, i was never a "long" person. I believe long is only for disposable cash.... In other words, cash that i do not need, period.

Problem with me, is the greed.... If i had cashed out in August, September 2007, i would be smiling everyday right now with a pile of disposable cash.

Part of the learning curve i guess.... Hope to be smarter next round.

bigbird72

December 29th, 2008, 06:34 AM

I gotta admit, i was never a "long" person. I believe long is only for disposable cash.... In other words, cash that i do not need, period.

Problem with me, is the greed.... If i had cashed out in August, September 2007, i would be smiling everyday right now with a pile of disposable cash.

Part of the learning curve i guess.... Hope to be smarter next round.

greed is part a good motivator...it is natural. Just need to recognise it.
Also no need to max out or scared lose out on more profits.

kurakura

December 29th, 2008, 09:11 AM

august5

December 29th, 2008, 09:23 AM

shctaw

December 29th, 2008, 09:34 AM

greed is part a good motivator...it is natural. Just need to recognise it.
Also no need to max out or scared lose out on more profits.

Agree totally.....

My dad is not greedy, hence he have never bought any property (including HDB) in his life time. :)

Rule 1: No venture no gain.
Rule 2: Never scare of losing when you have nothing to lose.

USD $ now change only 1.4380 SGD $. Look out for US dollar to become toilet paper in 2009-2011.

Baby

December 29th, 2008, 09:48 AM

bigbird72

December 29th, 2008, 11:10 AM

Suburb and HDB have not felt the market down turn yet......

Read last Sunday Times Investment section ? The owner of the HDB 5 room flat at suburb still think his unit is worth $600k now when he bought at $500k ?

Almost every fellow interviewed in Invest section think that his properties worth more...

People like to Mark-to-Mkt Upwards...but not downward....

hayata1972

December 29th, 2008, 11:30 AM

Almost every fellow interviewed in Invest section think that his properties worth more...

People like to Mark-to-Mkt Upwards...but not downward....

Until kena forced by circumstances to sell below valuation....:ohno:

hayata1972

December 29th, 2008, 11:31 AM

Agree totally.....

My dad is not greedy, hence he have never bought any property (including HDB) in his life time. :)

Rule 1: No venture no gain.
Rule 2: Never scare of losing when you have nothing to lose.

USD $ now change only 1.4380 SGD $. Look out for US dollar to become toilet paper in 2009-2011.

Now i truly understand where you get your motivation...

landlubber

December 29th, 2008, 11:34 AM

Wow.... UE SQ and Tiara both at near 2006 prices already.... These are resale projects that have nothing much to do about the speculation.... If they have been pounded down to such low prices.... How would the speculated projects react when TOP is closing in?

Sorry to say, but it is definately the beginning of the meltdown.... 2009 will see the carnage of the DPS Completion Massacre.
The transactions in Nov and Dec are probably stressed / forced sales. My guess is that the Tiara and UE Square apartments were sold by expats who had to leave the country in a hurry.

Some other developments have super strong owners. Eg Trillium where there hasn't been a single transaction for the past 6 months. I think owners are mainly Indonesians and DPS wasn't even offered at all. These owners can just sit on their assets for years and years a la Far East.

Prices are coming down in general but the market is very illiquid and good buying opportunities are very hard to find. You need a v good agent or a lot of luck to participate.

bigbird72

December 29th, 2008, 11:49 AM

The transactions in Nov and Dec are probably stressed / forced sales. My guess is that the Tiara and UE Square apartments were sold by expats who had to leave the country in a hurry.

Some other developments have super strong owners. Eg Trillium where there hasn't been a single transaction for the past 6 months. I think owners are mainly Indonesians and DPS wasn't even offered at all. These owners can just sit on their assets for years and years a la Far East.

Prices are coming down in general but the market is very illiquid and good buying opportunities are very hard to find. You need a v good agent or a lot of luck to participate.

super strong owners....not that many of them around...
some used to be strong like Russians n Arabs.

in a down market, mkt price determined by weakest owner, not strongest...

got money...no scared no vacant condos in 2009 and 2010....

illiquid mkt with increasingly weak sellers....best scenario for buyers.

buy from banks via mortgagee sales....value if buy below replacement costs.

but i think non-resi will offer better bet because no big supply coming online..

landlubber

December 29th, 2008, 12:30 PM

but i think non-resi will offer better bet because no big supply coming online..

:? IR, Ion Orchard, Orchard Central, MBFC, Marina View, South Beach ? :?

Or are you referring to non commercial and non office too?

landlubber

December 29th, 2008, 01:50 PM

$9 trillion of cash lying around, Indymac getting bought out by PE funds. We are seeing the start of the recovery phase, and there is A LOT of cash waiting to be deployed. Apologies for bad cut & paste below.

Cash at 18-Year High Makes Stocks a Buy at Leuthold (Update1)2008-12-29 09:40:10.137 GMT (Adds futures trading in seventh paragraph.) By Eric Martin and Michael TsangDec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- There’s more cash available to buyshares than at any time in almost two decades, a sign to some ofthe most successful investors that equities will rebound afterthe worst year for U.S. stocks since the Great Depression.The $8.85 trillion held in cash, bank deposits and money-market funds is equal to 74 percent of the market value of U.S.companies, the highest ratio since 1990, according to FederalReserve data compiled by Leuthold Group and Bloomberg.Leuthold, Invesco Aim Advisors Inc., Hennessy Advisors Inc.and BlackRock Inc., which together oversee almost $1.7 trillion,say that’s a sign the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will riseafter $1 trillion in credit losses sent the benchmark index forAmerican equities to the biggest annual drop since 1931. Theeight previous times that cash peaked compared with the market’scapitalization the S&P 500 rose an average 24 percent in sixmonths, data compiled by Bloomberg show.“There is a store of cash out there that is able to takethe market higher,” said Eric Bjorgen, who helps oversee $3.4billion at Leuthold in Minneapolis. “The same dollar you hadlast year buys you twice as much S&P 500 as it did a year ago.”Leuthold Group, whose Grizzly Short Fund returned 83percent in 2008 thanks to bets against equities, said in itsDecember bulletin to investors that stocks offer “one of thegreat buying opportunities of your lifetime.” Obama, Fed The S&P 500 rose 16 percent from an 11-year low on Nov. 20as the government rescued New York-based Citigroup Inc.,President-elect Barack Obama pledged to stimulate growth withthe biggest infrastructure investment since the 1950s, and theFed cut interest rates to as low as zero percent to combat theworst financial crisis in seven decades.Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in March added 0.2 percentto 870.50 at 9:31 a.m. today in London.The ratio of cash on hand to U.S. market capitalizationjumped 86 percent in the first 11 months of the year, thebiggest increase since the Fed began keeping records in 1959, asthe U.S., Europe and Japan fell into the first simultaneousrecessions since World War II.So-called money of zero maturity, the central bank’smeasure of U.S. assets available for immediate spending, ismostly held by households, according to Richard G. Anderson, aneconomist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. ‘Dry Powder’ “What the cash pile on the sidelines represents is drypowder,” said Fritz Meyer, the Denver-based senior marketstrategist at Invesco Aim, which manages about $358 billion. Thefirm’s $1.17 billion Aim Diversified Dividend Fund beat 96percent of its competitors this year, and the $3.95 billion AimCharter Fund topped 93 percent of similar mutual funds.“Recovery in the second half of the year will probablyplay out,” Meyer added.Any recovery will depend on a rebound in corporate profitsand the economy after $30 trillion was wiped out from worldequities this year, according to Frederic Dickson, chief marketstrategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon.Jobless claims reached a 26-year high this month, whileeconomists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate household spendingwill fall 1 percent next year, the most since the aftermath ofthe attack on Pearl Harbor. A 13 percent slump in the medianhome resale price in November from a year earlier was likely thelargest since the 1930s, the National Association of Realtorssaid last week, damping speculation the housing market is closeto a bottom. ‘Biggest Cannon’ Analysts estimate profits at S&P 500 companies will shrink10.3 percent in the first three months of 2009 and 5.8 percentin the second quarter, bringing the stretch of earnings declinesto a record eight quarters, Bloomberg data show. Gross domesticproduct will contract in the first half of the year beforegrowth resumes in the third quarter, according to a Bloombergsurvey of economists.“The fuel supply is there, but people have to have areason to use it,” said Dickson, who helps oversee about $19billion. “The Fed fired the shot out of the biggest cannon theyknow. Now the question is, will it hit the right mark?”This year’s slump has left S&P 500 companies valued at anaverage of 12.6 times operating profit, the cheapest since atleast 1998, monthly data compiled by Bloomberg show.Cash in interest-bearing checking accounts at U.S. banksearns less than 0.1 percent annually, minus inflation, accordingto national data compiled by Bankrate.com. Ten-year Treasurynotes yield 1.03 percent after adjusting for the cost of living,and yields fell to the lowest level on record this month. Benjamin Graham Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group LLC, which held 40 percent to50 percent of the Boston-based hedge-fund firm’s more than $14billion in cash, reduced its hoard by half to take advantage offalling asset prices, according to the December issue of HarvardBusiness School’s Alumni Bulletin.The 51-year-old investor who seeks shares of companiestrading at discounts to measures such as assets and cash flowwas the lead editor for the sixth edition of Benjamin Graham andDavid L. Dodd’s “Security Analysis,” which laid out theprinciples of value investing followed by billionaire WarrenBuffett.Klarman has generated an annual compound return of 20percent in the past 26 years, the Bulletin said. He declined tocomment in an e-mailed response to Bloomberg News. ‘Same Scenario’ Cash holdings peaked one month before equities began torecover during the two longest recessions since World War II. InJuly 1982, money of zero maturity as a percentage of the U.S.stock market’s value rose to 95 percent before a 20-month bearmarket ended and the S&P 500 began a six-month, 36 percentadvance, data compiled by Bloomberg show.Cash on hand reached $604.5 billion in September 1974,representing a record 1.21 times U.S. stock capitalization. Thatpreceded a 31 percent gain in equities between October 1974 andMarch 1975, Bloomberg data show.“If history tends to repeat itself, we’re in the exactsame scenario,” said Neil Hennessy, who oversees $650 millionas president of Hennessy Advisors in Novato, California. “Oncethe money starts to come back into the market, buying is goingto beget more buying. People don’t want to be left behind.”Hennessy’s Focus 30 Fund beat 96 percent of its peers thisyear. Lighting the Match The last time cash accounted for a larger proportion ofmarket value was 1990. The ratio peaked at 75 percent in Octoberof that year, after the savings and loan industry collapsed,Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. was forced into bankruptcy and theU.S. fell into a recession. The S&P 500 rallied 23 percent insix months and almost 30 percent in a year.Robert Doll, the chief investment officer of globalequities at BlackRock, has been buying stocks anticipating theS&P 500 may rise as much as 20 percent next year. The firmoversees $1.3 trillion.“It’s a mountain of cash,” Doll, who is based inPlainsboro, New Jersey, said on Bloomberg Radio. “Somebody’sjust got to find the match and light it.”

Flowers, Dune, Paulson & Co. Said to Lead Group Buying IndyMac2008-12-29 05:13:27.520 GMT By Zachary R. Mider, Alison Vekshin and Serena SaittoDec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- J.C. Flowers & Co., Dune CapitalManagement and Paulson & Co. are leading a group of private-equity and hedge-fund investors seeking to buy failed lenderIndyMac Bank, said three people familiar with the transaction.The bidders are close to an agreement with the FederalDeposit Insurance Corp., which seized the lender in July, saidthe people, who requested anonymity because the negotiations arecontinuing. An announcement could come by the middle of thisweek, the people said.U.S. regulators are relaxing 50-year-old banking rules amida financial crisis that has wiped out 25 institutions this yearand threatens at least 171 more. The Office of the Comptrollerof the Currency, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC this year allchanged rules that may help spur investments by private-equityfirms, a largely untapped potential pool of capital for banks.“They’re running out of choices,” Dan Cooper, seniorconsultant at Mortgage Banking Solutions in Austin, Texas, saidthis month. “They need to bring outside investment into theprocess just to get the banking sector back on the righttrack.”The investor group would buy all of Pasadena, California-based IndyMac, and run it as a savings and loan under new name,one person familiar with the deal said. IndyMac has 33 branches,a reverse-mortgage unit and a $176 billion loan-servicingportfolio. IndyMac has about $6.9 billion in deposits and $16.5billion in net loans and leases. Year-End Announcement “We have not made an announcement on a buyer outside ofsaying that we expect to make one by year’s end,” FDICspokesman David Barr said in an e-mail yesterday. Andrew Gray,FDIC director of public affairs, declined to comment.J. Christopher Flowers, the firm’s founder and Dune’sfounder Steven Mnuchin couldn’t be reached for comment. Aspokesman for Paulson declined to comment.Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Capital Inc., the investmentbanking unit of London-based Barclays Plc, are advising the FDICon the sale.The agency seized the lender in July and has been seeking abuyer. Unpaid mortgages left IndyMac short of cash, triggering arun on deposits that drained $1.3 billion in 11 days ending withthe U.S. takeover on July 11. The bank was among 25 to collapsethis year amid losses from mortgages.IndyMac’s failure will cost the FDIC’s deposit insurancefund about $8.9 billion, the agency said Aug. 26.In September, the Federal Reserve, seeking to clarify rulesfor investors buying stakes in banks, issued revised guidelinesstating that investors may be able to own as much as 33 percentof a bank and have as many as two board seats without beingsubject to bank-holding company regulations. ‘Shelf Charter’ The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in Novembercreated a new type of charter, called a “shelf charter,” tofind buyers for bank assets. The FDIC on Nov. 26 said it wouldstart letting investors without a charter bid on failinginstitutions.Investors from Carlyle Group, the Washington-based privateequity firm, to billionaire Wilbur Ross have expressed interestin investing in troubled banks. Flowers in August won regulatoryapproval to personally buy a Missouri bank. He may use the FirstNational Bank of Cainesville, with $14 million in assets, as avehicle to buy other troubled or failing institutions.Flowers’ firm raised $2.5 billion for a buyout fund thattargets banks and other financial firms, people with knowledgeof the matter said in September.Paulson’s $13 billion Advantage Plus fund, his largest fundthat’s designed to bet on takeovers, restructurings and othercorporate events, rose 33.5 percent this year through November,Bloomberg data showed. Paulson, Dune John Paulson, 53, in September was considering buying newlyissued shares or convertible bonds in financial institutionsthat need capital, the Financial Times reported Sept 8.Dune was co-founded by Mnuchin after he left Soros FundManagement LLC in late 2004. Mnuchin was head of a unit at Sorosthat provided financing, including mezzanine, asset-based andreal-estate loans. The team also traded distressed debt.Prior to joining Soros in 2003, Mnuchin, 46, was vicechairman of ESL Investments Inc., the hedge-fund firm run byEdward Lampert. ESL is the largest holder of Sears HoldingsCorp., on whose board Mnuchin sits.Before ESL, Mnuchin spent 17 years at Goldman Sachs GroupInc., becoming a member of the firm’s management committee. Heretired from Goldman at the end of 2002.

bigbird72

December 29th, 2008, 04:17 PM

:? IR, Ion Orchard, Orchard Central, MBFC, Marina View, South Beach ? :?

Or are you referring to non commercial and non office too?

talking abt direct investment in physicial property...the mega-projects can only be participating via stock mkts.

talking abt small offices, shops, shophouses and industrial..speciality ones even better...but SMEs dying will kill these non-resi prop even more.....

bigbird72

December 29th, 2008, 04:25 PM

Damn lucky. The robbery is net cashflow positive. Insurers picking up the tab.

In recession, arson cases go up?

CORTINA HOLDINGS LIMITED
(Incorporated in the Republic of Singapore)
Registration No.: 197201771W

PROFIT GUIDANCE

The Board of Directors of the Company wishes to announce that on the morning of 26
December 2008 the Company discovered that a theft of its stock had been committed at
its Raffles City retail outlet during the period after the closure of business on 25
December 2008 and before the opening of the store on the following day. A police report
has been made and the theft is currently under police investigations. The theft involves
timepieces at a net cost of about S$7.9 million.
Following the reported incident, the management has swiftly taken steps to tighten
security measures at all its retail outlets. The Board is taking steps to conduct a
comprehensive review of the Group’s security procedures and recommend measures for
improvement. In the meantime, the management is in discussions with its insurers on the
loss to the Group arising from the incident.
The incident will have an adverse impact on the Group results for the financial year
ending 31 March 2009. Assuming a maximum loss of S$7.9 million and based on the
audited balance sheet and full year results as at 31 March 2008, the net tangible asset
value per share and earnings per share of the Group would be reduced by 4.8 cents and
3.5 cents respectively. The Board wishes to assure shareholders that the Group’s cash
position remains healthy and business is ongoing at all the Group’s retail outlets.
The Company will make announcements as and when there are further developments.

infinity88

December 29th, 2008, 05:10 PM

^^^^

I am puzzled at the "adverse material impact" to the financial result. On the surface of the incident, it may seem that S$7.9 million will supercede its half year profit of S$5 million.

But like what BB mentioned, did not they have insurance coverage on the lost items? The result of the theft should be of no "material impact" to its final result, if insurance is factored in.

Trying to find a scape goat for their worse than expected performance? Could it be an insider job? :ohno::ohno:

infinity88

December 30th, 2008, 02:12 AM

Business Times - 30 Dec 2008

DTZ expects 2009 to echo property price plunge of 2008
Prime district property prices fall by 20%; similar decline seen in 2009
By ARTHUR SIM

(SINGAPORE) Prices of condominiums and apartments in the prime districts have fallen by more than 20 per cent in 2008 on a year-on-year basis, says DTZ.

DTZ is also forecasting a further decline of 15-20 per cent for this segment of the market in 2009.

Based on its preliminary analysis of official data, DTZ said that prices of non-landed freehold private homes in the prime districts fell by 14 per cent quarter-on-quarter (qoq) in the fourth quarter of 2008.

This follows two consecutive quarters of declines of around 4.5 per cent each.

The prime districts include District 9, 10 and 11.

Overall average prime prices fell 21.6 per cent year-on-year (yoy) to $1,160 per square foot (psf), below the level of $1,200 psf registered in Q207.

Freehold non-landed homes outside the prime districts fell in Q408 but at a lower rate of 9.3 per cent qoq or 10.5 per cent yoy.

Landed housing prices also fell 5.7 per cent qoq, or 2.9 per cent yoy, islandwide in Q408.

The fall in prices follows dismal developer sales in October and November with only 112 and 192 units sold in the primary market respectively, compared to the monthly average of 444 units sold in the first nine months of the year.

DTZ said that based on caveats lodged, preliminary data from URA's REALIS showed that the number of transactions in the year is only about 35 per cent of last year's 38,100 units.

On the upside, the percentage of HDB upgraders continued to grow. In 2008, a higher proportion of purchasers with HDB addresses was registered with 37 per cent of all buyers expected to be HDB upgraders in 2008 compared to 22 per cent in 2007.

Based on available caveats in URA's REALIS, the number of buyers with HDB addresses in Q408 is 582. While this is a preliminary number, it represents 43 per cent of total caveats lodged so far in the fourth quarter. DTZ noted that this is higher than the 41 per cent in Q308, 36 per cent in Q208, and 28 per cent in Q108.

'HDB upgraders buy mainly for owner occupation, so falling private home prices is a good opportunity for them to upgrade with greater affordability,' said DTZ senior director (research), Chua Chor Hoon.

But DTZ said that the downturn in the economy will deter buyers from committing to property purchases and sales are expected to continue to remain low in 2009.

Lower rental returns will not help either.

DTZ said that average monthly rents of prime non-landed homes decreased in Q408 by 9.4 per cent qoq or 9.2 per cent yoy to $4.36 psf.

Outside the prime districts, rents held up better with an increase of 2 per cent yoy, despite a fall of 1.2 per cent qoq.

The extent of price corrections is still uncertain but Nomura has already adjusted its forecasts. In March, it forecast average prices in the luxury sector to fall by 32.3 per cent from the 2007 peak over 2008-2010 - 16.9 per cent in 2008, 10.3 per cent in 2009 and 9.3 per cent in 2010.

It now expects luxury prices to fall 43.8 per cent from the peak, and mass residential prices to fall 32.1 per cent as yields move out by an additional 25-50 basis-points.

OCBC analysts also believe that high-end property prices could decline by 15-20 per cent in 2009 due to weak sentiment, unsold inventories and potential risks of buyers' default and fire-sales.

OCBC expects mass market property prices to remain resilient, supported by the stability in HDB prices. For the mid-market properties, it expects prices to fall further in 2009, with a projected decline of 5-10 per cent.

infinity88

December 30th, 2008, 02:15 AM

Business Times - 30 Dec 2008

Rejuvenation for Jurong residential areas
Better connectivity and more housing choices are on the cards
By EMILYN YAP

MORE residential areas in Jurong are to be rejuvenated as part of the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) 2008 Master Plan to develop commercial hubs outside the Central Business District.

Supporting the growth of the Jurong Lake District, Faber Terrace, Faber Hills, Teban Gardens and Pandan Gardens will soon enjoy better connectivity and more housing choices.

Various infrastructure plans in the region will proceed 'notwithstanding the current economic downturn', said URA in a release yesterday.

The government will be enhancing roads at Faber Terrace and Faber Hills. Not only will this improve the area's traffic situation, it will also allow more low and medium-density housing fronting Sungei Ulu Pandan to be built in future, said URA.

Noting that traffic along the Ayer Rajah Expressway in the area can be heavy, DTZ's executive director Ong Choon Fah agreed with the plans. 'If you build up the Jurong Lake District, you will also need to find an accessible way to get there,' she said.

According to URA, new residences at Faber Terrace and Faber Hills will be private and could include landed property as well as low- and medium-density condominiums. The area could be suitable for cluster housing, said Cushman & Wakefield Singapore managing director Donald Han.

Teban and Pandan Gardens will also undergo rejuvenation. Two public housing sites at Teban Gardens are already under the selective en-bloc redevelopment scheme, and PUB's ABC Waters programme for the Pandan Reservoir will further enhance waterfront living in the area.

There are also plans to improve Teban and Pandan Gardens' connectivity with the Jurong Lake District.

The district - comprising a commercial centre at Jurong Gateway and a leisure hotspot at Lakeside - could attract more large and global companies and the redevelopment of the International Business Park would further support this. As JTC Corporation also said yesterday, it plans to add another five hectares of land and raise plot ratios for some areas in the park.

Knight Frank director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak pointed out that multinational corporations do pay attention to where the workforce is when they pick a site for their headquarters or factories. 'To know that (workers) are all living around is good, there is a ready pool of labour,' he said.

The announcements are also 'a signal to potential developers and investors that there is still land around the Jurong Lake area available,' he added.

URA also provided more updates on the development of Jurong Lake District yesterday.

For instance, dredging works to deepen the Jurong Lake for more water-based activities are already underway.

bigbird72

December 30th, 2008, 04:00 AM

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11480

Wealth Creation, or a Ponzi Scheme?
by Michael Hudson
Global Research, December 23, 2008

O2blue

December 30th, 2008, 08:21 AM

Hi,

Anyone know anything about this new policy for Stamp duty fee?

Transfer of stamp duty fee as gift. Effective as at 1st Jan 2009.

Thanks.

bigbird72

December 30th, 2008, 09:24 AM

Hi,

Anyone know anything about this new policy for Stamp duty fee?

Transfer of stamp duty fee as gift. Effective as at 1st Jan 2009.

Thanks.

dont know.

if gift away property, bankruptcy court can claw back within 5 yrs. so may make sale and mortgage difficult.

Baby

December 31st, 2008, 03:17 AM

got such thing ?

Hi,

Anyone know anything about this new policy for Stamp duty fee?

Transfer of stamp duty fee as gift. Effective as at 1st Jan 2009.

Thanks.

bigbird72

December 31st, 2008, 04:33 AM

got such thing ?

something to do with assessment of value of the gift. too lazy to check.

stingraytan

December 31st, 2008, 04:57 AM

Almost every fellow interviewed in Invest section think that his properties worth more...

People like to Mark-to-Mkt Upwards...but not downward....

this brings back to the defination of value.

if i think my city facing studio in the sail is worth 1.8million, and wont consider selling at anything below that, i would say the value of my unit is 1.8million.

No need to sell, no rush to sell, dont want to sell... whose value are we looking at??

bigbird72

December 31st, 2008, 05:46 AM

this brings back to the defination of value.

if i think my city facing studio in the sail is worth 1.8million, and wont consider selling at anything below that, i would say the value of my unit is 1.8million.

No need to sell, no rush to sell, dont want to sell... whose value are we looking at??

Looking at mkt value. last few transacted price.

Using your methodology, I am a Zillionaire since I am willing to sell my handphone at only 1 zillion SGdollars. So my net worth is 1 zillion SG dollars. :nuts:

More tangible value for better comparison are:

rental yield (based on replacement rental, not existing rental) &/or

replacement value (land + construction cost)

Above are moving targets...but better than 'pluck from the air' valuation.

august5

December 31st, 2008, 07:20 AM

pp123

December 31st, 2008, 07:31 AM

Looking at mkt value. last few transacted price.

Using your methodology, I am a Zillionaire since I am willing to sell my handphone at only 1 zillion SGdollars. So my net worth is 1 zillion SG dollars. :nuts:

More tangible value for better comparison are:

rental yield (based on replacement rental, not existing rental) &/or

replacement value (land + construction cost)

Above are moving targets...but better than 'pluck from the air' valuation.

do you think it make sense to correlate the price of property to the price of property developer stocks.
example...KepLan...in 07 high is around 10....now is below 2

pp123

December 31st, 2008, 07:35 AM

Capland is 8++, now is 3...

so all has drop 60-80%......
from the peak of 07...can we safely "guess" , we are looking at at least 30-40% drop in property prices in the near future...considering the lag in real estate vs stocks.

p/s: this is assuming stock is bottom now....which may not be the case....

bigbird72

December 31st, 2008, 07:43 AM

do you think it make sense to correlate the price of property to the price of property developer stocks.
example...KepLan...in 07 high is around 10....now is below 2

not really. prop companies got mgt and financing considerations.

stocks can be massively overvalued or undervalued because of human emotions..

said before, cannot use recent high or low as valuation. then must be a more tangible longer term yardstick to value. Like book value.

Baby

December 31st, 2008, 07:50 AM

Paper (or paperless ?) versus Bricks-&-Mortar.......I still prefer latter.
Just like cash, and gold certificate versus physical gold......I still prefer latter, although I have none yet.

do you think it make sense to correlate the price of property to the price of property developer stocks.
example...KepLan...in 07 high is around 10....now is below 2

bigbird72

December 31st, 2008, 07:58 AM

Paper (or paperless ?) versus Bricks-&-Mortar.......I still prefer latter.
Just like cash, and gold certificate versus physical gold......I still prefer latter.

I think should be form-neutral, whatever that gives the biggest bang for the buck. Each has its adv/disadv.

Physical will have liquidity issue (like current mkt situation). Bid-offer spread will be large.

Baby

December 31st, 2008, 08:01 AM

If you look at history till now, those who buy and hold long on stock till now kanna lose.
But those who buy and hold long on physical asset like house and gold gain.

bigbird72

December 31st, 2008, 08:15 AM

If you look at history till now, those who buy and hold long on stock till now kanna lose.
But those who buy and hold long on physical asset like house and gold gain.

It is abt timing.

pp123

December 31st, 2008, 08:28 AM

not really. prop companies got mgt and financing considerations.

stocks can be massively overvalued or undervalued because of human emotions..

said before, cannot use recent high or low as valuation. then must be a more tangible longer term yardstick to value. Like book value.

i was looking at the up curve from 04-07....it is very similar to property prices.
you 're right book value is a better yardstick.
again property prices are as well push up by human emotion.

in 06/07......F1,flyer & IR was the big push....every aunties is talking about it.
F1 was here.....Flyer started turning and got stuck.....next let's see how IR.

pp123

December 31st, 2008, 08:30 AM

If you look at history till now, those who buy and hold long on stock till now kanna lose.
But those who buy and hold long on physical asset like house and gold gain.

.....cannot hold too long....must know when to let go....

bigbird72

December 31st, 2008, 08:33 AM

i was looking at the up curve from 04-07....it is very similar to property prices.
you 're right book value is a better yardstick.
again property prices are as well push up by human emotion.

in 06/07......F1,flyer & IR was the big push....every aunties is talking about it.
F1 was here.....Flyer started turning and got stuck.....next let's see how IR.

when it is obvious, it is probably over.

pp123

December 31st, 2008, 09:45 AM

I like to wish everyone here a Happy & Healthy New Year!:cheers1:

infinity88

December 31st, 2008, 09:59 AM

Happy New Year, everyone!

:dance:

cnud

December 31st, 2008, 10:37 AM

Happy New Year.

2009 - I think will be more interesting than 2008. How the world 'rebound' will be amazing...

fritz_kaktus

December 31st, 2008, 10:45 AM

It's normal to feel bleak when an economic downturn has just started. Otherwise there would be no downturn...
I don't see a meltdown for Singapore - this wonderful city is too well positioned for the future. Prices might come down another 25% or so but they will recover mid-term. Singapore (and Malaysia) are well diversified economies with talented and hard working people. What Switzerland is for Europe, Singapore will become for Asia - just on a much larger scale.

Don't worry too much - there will be great opportunities for the courageous ones.

Wishing you all a prosperous and happy 2009!

august5

December 31st, 2008, 11:03 AM

Happy New Year.

2009 - I think will be more interesting than 2008. How the world 'rebound' will be amazing...

Looking forward to 2009! :nuts:

bigbird72

December 31st, 2008, 12:31 PM

yes. Happy New Year, everyone.

hayata1972

December 31st, 2008, 02:09 PM

yes. Happy New Year, everyone.

Yes, Happy new year everyone. BB72, Shctaw, Veru, Kopiluver and everyone else, may all you guys prosper in the year 2009!!!

infinity88

January 1st, 2009, 02:25 AM

Business Times - 01 Jan 2009

Orchard Rd rents fall 1.9% in Q4: CBRE
This is the first time these rents have headed south since Q4 2003
By UMA SHANKARI

PRIME Orchard Road rents fell 1.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter to an average of $36.10 per sq ft per month (psf pm) in Q4 2008, property firm CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) said yesterday.

It is the first time these rents have headed south since Q4 2003, it said. They also contracted 0.8 per cent year-on-year, reversing their 5.4 per cent growth in Q4 2007.

Prime suburban rents dipped a more moderate one per cent quarter-on-quarter to an average of $29 psf pm in Q4 2008. The last time quarterly suburban mall rents contracted was Q2 1999. For the whole of 2008, they grew one per cent.

'Retail rents were resilient in previous economic downturns (such as Sars, and the Asian Financial Crisis) due to limited supply then,' CBRE said in a report released yesterday.

'But going forward, weak demand is likely to coincide with an increase in supply. As such, downward pressure on rents is unavoidable. We expect renegotiations to commence in 2009, after the Chinese New Year festivities.'

The main danger to rents, analysts say, is the new supply of retail space set to kick in over the next two years. According to CBRE, known supply for 2009-2012 is 6.36 million sq ft, with most of this - 80.5 per cent or 5.13 million sq ft - completing in 2009 and 2010.

'Developers and landlords, especially those with developments along Orchard Road, face increasing competition from the imminent supply of new malls, shops within the integrated resorts as well as refurbished shopping centres,' CBRE noted.

Retailers are now more resistant to further rental increases, as local consumers, spooked by the prospects of unemployment and lower wages, have cut spending, it said. In addition, the economic recession has led to a drop in tourist arrivals.

In the light of this, CBRE reckons that prime Orchard Road rents could contract 5-10 per cent in the first half of 2009. At prime suburban malls a 2-3 per cent decline is likely, it said. Suburban rents will fall more moderately due to a ready population catchment, steady demand for basic necessities and comparatively less competition from new supply.

However, some resilient retailers could take the opportunity presented by lower rents and costs to expand their retail network, CBRE said.

'Certain trades will continue to thrive, despite the gloomy outlook. Supermarkets, hypermarts and F&B in suburban malls might emerge more hardy, particularly those with unique F&B themed eateries,' it said.

arthur

January 1st, 2009, 03:58 AM

Economy grew 1.5%, difficult year ahead

PM assures S'poreans that efforts to help them will be stepped up

By Sue-Ann Chia

ALTHOUGH Singapore slipped into recession last year, its economic growth was still positive at 1.5 per cent, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

It is, however, lower than the annual growth forecast of 2.5 per cent, owing to the severe fallout from the global financial crisis.

The anaemic economy dominated Mr Lee's New Year message yesterday, which outlined an outlook that continues to be 'highly uncertain' with the threat of a rise in retrenchments.

'We must therefore prepare for a difficult year ahead, and especially the first half of 2009,' he said.

'Our economy will probably contract further. More companies will be forced to downsize...I expect more retrenchments in the next few months. We must be psychologically prepared.'

There were 6,418 layoffs in the first nine months of last year, and analysts predict the figure in the new year could surpass the peak of 30,000 in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis.

Mr Lee, however, assured Singaporeans the Government will intensify its efforts to help companies and citizens cope with the crisis. The details will be in the Budget to be unveiled on Jan 22.

'The emphasis is still to protect jobs,' he said. 'We will do more to help companies to stay afloat and continue to employ their workers.'

Keeping a lid on business costs, such as rental and wage bills, was among the measures he highlighted, adding that more financing support for companies is under study.

These measures are on top of its swift response to the global crisis when it introduced some help schemes in December.

They include a Government-backed enhanced loan scheme for companies and a training scheme that gives bosses more money to retrain, rather than retrench, workers. More than 120 companies will send over 4,200 workers for training under this programme.

Mr Lee also pledged that there could be off-Budget measures if the need arises, saying: 'We have the resources, and the will, to do more to see Singapore through this recession.'

In the meantime, he cautioned against viewing Budget 2009 as a cure-all for the ailing economy.

'The Budget package will not restore our economy to high growth overnight. But our measures will moderate the impact on Singaporeans, and on our economy,' he said.

This is because the global recession, unlike the Asian financial crisis, is the worst in 60 years. It will take longer to recover, with several years of slow growth.

In the interim, Singapore needs to seek out new growth opportunities so that it emerges stronger after the downturn, Mr Lee said.

'Hence, the Budget will also contain measures to develop our competitiveness and build up new and long term capabilities. '

Elaborating, he said the Government will help companies build up their operations, and also encourage new businesses to grow.

But the Government can only do so much, said Mr Lee as he stressed the importance of tackling the crisis as one nation. He called on companies, unionists, and Singaporeans to help each other ride out the tough times.

Layoffs should be the last resort, he stressed and urged workers to upgrade their skills and take up even unpopular jobs in the marine and construction sectors.

Singaporeans can also look forward to new jobs from investment commitments which the Economic Development Board forecasts could exceed $10 billion this year.

Amid the economic struggle, Mr Lee also highlighted the security threat from terrorism. Referring to the recent Mumbai attack which claimed the life of Singaporean lawyer Lo Hwei Yen, he said: 'We all mourn her loss. We are doing our utmost to prevent something like this from happening here.'

Despite the turmoil, Mr Lee believes Singapore has good reasons to be 'quietly confident'. In his recent visits to Latin America, China and the Middle East, he said 'people admire what we have achieved, and were eager to learn from our experiences' .

'They were confident that we would pull through and wanted to pick up ideas from us,' he added.

Singapore's 1.5 per cent growth took analysts like Mr Chua Hak Bin by surprise. 'It is much lower than expected and this year is going to be equally rough, with job losses expected to exceed job creation,'' said Mr Chua, head of Singapore equity research at Citigroup.

shctaw

January 1st, 2009, 04:04 AM

sesami

January 1st, 2009, 04:17 PM

Veru

January 2nd, 2009, 03:46 AM

Singapore Cuts GDP Forecast as Global Crisis Deepens (Update1)
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By Shamim Adam

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s economy may shrink more than previously forecast in 2009, the government said, citing the worsening global recession and foreshadowing a deepening slump throughout the region.

“The global economic crisis has worsened since November, with sharp declines in global demand, trade and investments,” the trade ministry said in a statement today. The economy may contract as much as 2 percent this year, twice as much as a Nov. 21 prediction, it said.

Singapore is speeding up its response to the global slowdown and will unveil more steps to help companies and minimize job cuts when it brings forward its 2009 budget announcement to this month, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Dec. 31. Policy makers around the world have cut lending rates and increased spending to sustain growth.

“It’s going to be a tough time across Asia,” said Alvin Liew, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. “We don’t see any bright spots in the Singapore economy, especially in the first half.”

Gross domestic product contracted an annualized 12.5 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking a revised 5.4 percent between July and September. The Southeast Asian economy has declined for three straight quarters, joining Japan, Hong Kong and New Zealand in recession.

The Singapore dollar fell 1.1 percent to 1.448 against the U.S. currency as of 10:12 a.m. local time today.

Electronics Drop

Singapore is among the first in the region to report fourth-quarter figures, providing an insight on how the credit crunch and the worldwide recession is affecting Asia’s economies.

The export-dependent nation has been battered by declining orders for electronic goods and pharmaceuticals from its biggest customers in the U.S. and Europe, as well as emerging nations. The World Bank last month predicted international trade will shrink in 2009 for the first time in more than 25 years.

The island’s manufacturing industry, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, contracted 9 percent last quarter from a year earlier, compared with a revised 11 percent drop in the previous three months, today’s report showed. The industry will be “weighed down” by falling demand in developed economies, the government said.

Singapore’s Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., two of the world’s three largest custom-chipmakers, last month lowered their earnings projections amid delayed orders and a slump in demand.

Job Cuts

Companies such as Royal Philips Electronics NV are cutting jobs in the city-state, and Prime Minister Lee this week said retrenchments may increase in the next few months.

“We must prepare for a difficult year ahead, especially the first half of 2009,” Lee said Dec. 31. “Our economy will probably contract further. Compared to the 1997 Asian financial crisis, this crisis is more difficult for us to overcome because it is global.”

Asian nations have announced spending packages to boost their flagging economies. China in November unveiled a 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) economic stimulus plan, while South Korea revealed a 14 trillion-won ($11 billion) package of extra spending and corporate tax breaks, adding to almost $20 billion in income-tax reductions announced in September.

In neighboring Malaysia, the government on Nov. 4 unveiled public projects valued at 7 billion ringgit ($2 billion) to spur growth. Singapore’s budget is scheduled for Jan. 22.

Services, Construction

Singapore’s services industry slowed as the global credit crunch hurt financial companies, visitor arrivals declined and consumers reduced spending. Services climbed 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, slowing from a 5.3 percent pace in the previous period. Financial services will “see a sharp slowdown,” the government said.

The construction industry grew 13.3 percent, easing from a revised rate of 18.6 percent in the previous quarter.

The $161 billion economy declined 2.6 percent last quarter from a year earlier, compared with a revised 0.3 percent drop between July and September. Growth was 1.5 percent in 2008, the slowest in seven years.

The government’s latest economic forecast for 2009 ranges from a contraction of 2 percent to expansion of 1 percent, compared with between a decline of 1 percent and growth of 2 percent estimated in November

landlubber

January 2nd, 2009, 04:06 AM

Actually after all these happenings I have a new thinking which I would like to share. Any asset class, cash, gold, shares or property can depreciate and devalue due to any economic turmoil. The value of any asset class can be taken away.

What can't be taken away is your expertise, your knowledge, your know-how, your niche and your competitive advantage.

Instead of looking outwards, we should always look inwards and further build up ourselves or our own companies. Thats where the highest returns will be.

:cheers:
any value assigned to one asset class is relative to all other asset classes. Any one asset class can go down in value, but it doesn't make sense for all asset classes to go down at the same time as we will be back to square one- ultimately it is purchasing power that counts. if we see hard asset prices coming down, it usually means that cash as an asset class is going up in value and vice versa. the challenge is to figure out which asset class boat to jump on, as even cash is volatile in these markets.

Baby

January 2nd, 2009, 04:52 AM

Wanna buy Wing Tai's development ? See this more likely quality issue from developer contractor than owner.

Wonder which condo is this ? At Cainhill ?

===================

Angry buyers clash with developer Wing Tai over alleged defects
By Loh Chee Kong, TODAY | Posted: 02 January 2009 1013 hrs

The glass panel at the front of this balcony fell more than nine storeys onto the swimming pool area.

SINGAPORE : An ugly spat - that has already resulted in a police report lodged against a homeowner - is brewing between listed property giant Wing Tai and some foreign investors of its three-year-old luxury condo near Orchard Road.

The development, which briefly set a record price of more than S$2,000 per square foot when it was launched, has more than 130 units in all.

At least 15 unit owners - most of them foreigners who were buying their first Singapore properties - have come forward with a series of complaints claiming that poor workmanship has led to problems including cracked parquet flooring, chipped marble tiles, watermarks on walls and shattered glass panels on the balconies.

Some of these owners spoke to TODAY on condition of anonymity. They said they did not even want their condo to be named, for fear that it would drive down resale values.

The complainants said that the average cost of a two-bedroom unit had been more than S$2 million; one investor had bought six such units for a total of S$15 million, and one couple paid S$7 million for a single four-bedroom apartment.

The latest incident on Monday morning - which happened as contractors were called in to rectify problems after similar incidents - saw a glass panel fall more than nine storeys from an unoccupied unit on to the swimming pool area. The impact shattered the panel and flung broken glass shards into the pool and as far as 20 metres away. No one was hurt.

According to residents, it is the fifth time a glass panel on a balcony had either shattered or fallen from a height.

When contacted, spokesman Clement Augustine from the property developer Winworth Investment - a subsidiary of Wing Tai Land - said the company takes a “serious view on safety on all our developments”.

Mr Augustine added that the glass panels used had met all industrial safety standards. In addition, each panel had been laminated with safety film to prevent them from shattering.

Winworth has lodged a police report over the latest incident, with Mr Augustine suggesting that the glass panel could have been tampered with.

Mr Augustine said that the owner of the affected unit had refused entry to Winworth’s representatives to investigate the latest incident. “From the pieces recovered (on the ground), we noticed that the safety film was broken. We cannot rule out the possibility that there may be wilful damage to the glass,” Mr Augustine said.

In response, the unit owner brushed off the fact that a police report has been lodged against him. He told TODAY that the condo’s management council - made up of some of the homeowners - that decided to ask an independent surveyor to assess the damage in his unit before the developer was allowed access.

The owner said he had told Winworth’s representatives they could enter his unit the next day. “It’s like when you have a car accident, you let the police do its investigation first, then you call the insurance before you go and repair the car,” he said.

The face-off was a development in a saga - already involving a lengthy exchange of emails and letters - simmering in the quiet and exclusive neighbourhood.

Disputing Winworth’s assertion that the defects were due to “wear and tear”, a handful of frustrated homeowners claimed they had spent thousands of dollars out of their own pocket on interior repair works.

One resident described the situation as “frustrating and insulting”. She said: “Most of the people living here are CEOs or managing directors. They can easily afford the repairs. The issue is having to take time off from running their companies to stay at home and supervise the repair and enhancement works.”

Conceding that some unit owners may not have inspected the apartments thoroughly before buying, she added: “When you pay that sort of money, you would assume the unit would be of the highest quality or at least a minimum standard. You don’t go into a Gucci or Hermes shop and check on every stitch in the bag that you have just bought.”

Mr Augustine said that the development had been granted its TOP (temporary occupation permit) in mid-2005. He denied that there had been shoddy workmanship and said that in any case defects which had been highlighted within the one-year liability period “have long since been addressed”.

Homeowners should channel their current grouses to the condo’s management corporation, which is responsible for its maintenance, he said.

The condo is now managed by Knight Frank Estate Management, which residents say took over at the beginning of last month from PSF.

Mr Augustine insisted that the units had been handed over their buyers only after each buyer had been given the opportunity of inspecting their homes and declaring themselves satisfied with the quality.

Even so, the developer had provided complimentary repair service for “genuine” complaints, Mr Augustine said.

He said: “There remain isolated incidences where a few owners may not have carried out diligent maintenance works, or have suffered willful damage to property, or whose property is the subject of wear-and-tear. Obviously, we are unable to address these matters because these owners should be responsible for their own repairs.” - TODAY/rose

landlubber

January 2nd, 2009, 08:03 AM

Looks like this might be the one- Draycott 8:

Address: 6 - 10 Draycott Park
Type of Development: Condominium
Tenure: 99 years
District: 10
No. of Units: 136
Year of Completion: 2006
Developer: Wing Tai Holdings Ltd

Wanna buy Wing Tai's development ? See this more likely quality issue from developer contractor than owner.

Wonder which condo is this ? At Cainhill ?

august5

January 2nd, 2009, 09:15 AM

Actually what is the cause of watermarks on wall?

shctaw

January 2nd, 2009, 09:28 AM

august5

January 2nd, 2009, 09:40 AM

Poor water proof job.

It can happen on area Ceiling (especially those around kitchen, toilet and balcony) and Wall.

I spent $1,000 to fixed this problem, no big deal when you compare $1k to the value of your home.

However if your home is new, it will be covered and developer will have to fix it up for free.

I engaged Nippon to repaint my place 6 months ago. Now notice the walls at the edge of window frames having watermarks. One of the wall's paint has actually peeled off leaving an unsightly gap. AAhhhhh! :bash:

shctaw

January 2nd, 2009, 10:26 AM

Sound exactly to what happen on my rental apartment. :)

Nothing serious, just need to water proof it and repaint the wall. You need a contractor for that job, water proof paint will be useless.

You may want to use silicon gel to seal the gap between the window and the wall, water may enter thru small gap between wall and window. You can try to spill some water and see how long it take for the water to come in.

If water came in almost immediately, it must be the gap between window and the wall. In this scenario, you can do it yourself without a contractor.

I engaged Nippon to repaint my place 6 months ago. Now notice the walls at the edge of window frames having watermarks. One of the wall's paint has actually peeled off leaving an unsightly gap. AAhhhhh! :bash:

Veru

January 13th, 2009, 03:09 PM

I think assets are assets, cash is cash and Gold is gold.

I will never think my assets as cash, or cash as gold or gold as assets.

$1m have to be in my bank account ready for withdrawal anytime to be $1m. Otherwise, it is just a dream.

Isreal attack on GAZA may be a prelude to USA war with IRAN. This is not a prediction, it is news that I read which is not in main stream media.

With the Illuminati losing control of USA, they may need to start a NEW war to get back their grib on USA. The sale of Ammos and Guns have shoot up in USA, I am very worry............................

Price is what you pay, value is what you get. So when you have value, you already trade with the price you pay. To get back price, you must sell your value.

What Currency Is Best for Holding Cash?
by: Peter Cooper January 13, 2009
Peter Cooper

In a recession cash is king, but which currency should you hold? As investors begin to worry about the size of global bailout and stimulus packages and their longer term implications for currency values, this is a valid question and deserves a serious answer.

Short term I favor the US dollar, mainly because I expect a further sell-off in global capital markets, and as we found last autumn when markets sell-off then investors cash in their assets for US dollars. It is an automatic effect as dollars are what you get when you sell, and the selling boosts demand for dollars, at least temporarily.
The problem is that you do not need to be a rocket scientist from a hedge fund to see that the huge expansion of the global money supply now in progress by governments is going to cause inflation and devalue money. It will take time because in a recession people save their cash but when they start to spend it the inflation is inevitable.

Inflation
Central banks know this and are happy to see inflation melt away the burden of debt which has become intolerable. Never mind that savers lose their shirts. Then the whole up cycle can start again. But anybody holding cash will see its value seriously eroded.

We all know this happens overtime anyhow. As a student I could live comfortably on $6,000 a year in 1980 (admittedly we had many more hidden subsidies for students then), how far would that money go today?

So the question is whether switching out of the dollar into another currency at some point in the future will counter inflation? It is a tough call as in a global recession there is a competitive devaluation going on and the US dollar has been doing comparatively well in the past few months.

Personally I hold UAE dirhams - which are dollar linked - for the high rate of interest on deposit accounts, combined with instant convertibility due to free exchange policies (which were not even revoked in the First Gulf War). There is also the commitment to a single Gulf currency by 2010 which offers the prospect of a significant revaluation in the near future, although I am not speculating on that.

China
Otherwise it is a tough to go anti-dollar right now. The yuan is one idea, and I certainly think Chinese stocks will be a very good buy at some point in the near term as there will be significant upside both for the currency and the equities.

But the yen and the euro are facing serious recessions, and longer term should lose out in value to lower cost locations like China, or resource rich areas like the Persian Gulf. Recessions do have a habit of accelerating obvious trends.

However, the currency of choice is surely to go back to gold and silver as a defense against paper currencies and the nasty habit of governments to print money in difficult times. There is a worry over volatility with precious metals but then currencies have hardly been very stable recently, and actually a good deal more volatile than gold.

Certainly if you have a large cash position you should consider holding up to half of it in gold and silver and related assets as a hedge against currency devaluation which looks inevitable, and why not protect against an enemy you know is coming?