To me, these are signs of liquidity boom. At top of liquidty-driven mkt, bricks will float. Now the global liquidity machine is shutting down, asset prices will soften.

As I said before, investors still fat from the recent boom. Esp if they deleverage or cash out some properties. Those who comes in late with multiple properties with mortgages, they have become banks' best friends.


That is the reason they withdraw DPS, as they will have the first hand information of the latest transaction price.

I knew about some of the mass market units tansacted above $1 million in Oct & November, and the same units are in the market at $600 to $700K back in March & April.

......

I am waiting for URA to release the result to see how they going to play with the figure. If the show a low figure for the mass market gain, something is wrong with their calculation. If figure is shown as what it really are, we shall have a hack of a rush.

Those whom stay side-line thinking our property market will crash in 2008 will have hard time getting a unit anymore.

MBFC2 will have a hand in pushing up the market in 2008 too. Let wait and see.

Off-topic.

Go check out old Warren Buffett MBA Talk. I think it was filmed in 1997.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfuXKpMFUjc&feature=related

Thank you, time to revive old thought.

Saw the video a few years ago, cannot remember how long to be exact. I think I saw the video from a vcd from an ang moh peer.

Bidbird is hot today. :lol:

Expensive to build your own landed now. Maybe buy land from SLA auctions. Then sit on it for 2-3 yrs then build. SLA give 72 months to build.

Abt Bt Semb, mgt said landbank for long term. Will release them over very long term. Hi-end condos is for quick turnover. So likely they will clear them over 3-4 yrs. The condos devt also financing by short-term money. If short term interest rates ever shot up, Bt Semb will bleed.

2-3 yrs back building landed ranges from 100+to 300+psf (high end). I understand early this yr still can be done at 200+ to ard 400+ psf. Building lap pool and basement cost quite a lot though. It has moved up considerably % wise but still very much affordable compared to the rise in condos.

Anyway, judging from bigbird72 posts, seems like you are more of an equities person rather than physical property. :) I'm more into equities actually, and also looking at the whole picture. At this junciton actually, it seems that property stocks and physical properties I moving in different direction drastically. Actually If I strongly believe property is to do well with no corrections whatsoever, I will look to long into property stocks, as I believe it is much easier to sell for developers. Of course need to be selective though.

Old news.

Data does not includes HDB concessionary loan data, but includes HDB bank loans.

Source : Business Times - 13 Sept 2007

Data shows area has highest number with multiple home loans.

It may not top Singapore’s wealth charts, but Hougang has plenty of property
investors - or speculators. District 19, which includes Serangoon Gardens,
Hougang and Punggol, has the highest number of borrowers with multiple property loans, at 3,263.

According to data from Credit Bureau Singapore (CBS), which analysed loans and looked at where borrowers live, investors are defined as people with two home loans and more. They live all over Singapore and are not confined to the rich districts of 10 and 11 or 15.

In fact District 9, which includes Orchard, Cairnhill and River Valley, has only
716 borrowers with at least two home loans. This is much lower than districts
16, 18, 20, 22 and 23, each of which has between 2,000 and 2,700 borrowers with more than one loan.

People with multiple home loans totalled 38,520 in June - a 64 per cent jump from 12 months earlier.

And District 19 took the top prize in this category - at 3,263. CBS general
manager Mark Rowley said this could be due to the number of property launches in the area, although the data would include residents who have bought elsewhere.

While the rich residents of districts 15, 9 and 10, which include Katong,
Orchard, Ardmore, Bukit Timah and Holland Road, figure prominently in terms of people owing banks more than $1 million on property loans, the data shows people who owe more than a million dollars on homes live all over the island. The number jumped a hefty 26 per cent to 12,884 in June from a year ago.

‘The value of properties has gone up,’ said Mr Rowley who does not consider the jump in big loans a matter of concern, given the low rate of delinquency among borrowers.

District 10, which is made up of Ardmore, Bukit Timah, Holland Road and Tanglin, has the most million-dollar borrowers at 2,033, up 30 per cent from a year ago.

Again District 19 didn’t do too badly. It has 618 such borrowers, a slight gain
of 2 per cent from June 2006.

District 24, which comprises Lim Chu Kang and Tengah, has a grand total of 6
people who owe more than $1 million on their home loans, a 100 per cent jump
from 12 months ago.

Interestingly, Kranji and Woodgrove in District 25 are the only places where
residents who owe more than $1 million showed a drop - 117 versus 119 a year ago. They also seem the most conservative area, with only 20 people having multiple home loans.

And District 25 had a 16 per cent fall in new property loans. This translated to
1,666 people getting a loan, down from 1,984 a year ago.

It was one of five districts that showed a negative in new property loan
approvals. The other four were districts 22, 24, 27 and 20.

CBS gets its property loan data from 10 financial institutions, eight banks and
two finance companies.

They are ABN Amro Bank, CitiBank, DBS Bank, HSBC, Maybank, OCBC, Standard Chartered Bank, United Overseas Bank, Hong Leong Finance and Sing Investments & Finance.

Source : Business Times - 13 Sept 2007

2-3 yrs back building landed ranges from 100+to 300+psf (high end). I understand early this yr still can be done at 200+ to ard 400+ psf. Building lap pool and basement cost quite a lot though. It has moved up considerably % wise but still very much affordable compared to the rise in condos.

Anyway, judging from bigbird72 posts, seems like you are more of an equities person rather than physical property. :) I'm more into equities actually, and also looking at the whole picture. At this junciton actually, it seems that property stocks and physical properties I moving in different direction drastically. Actually If I strongly believe property is to do well with no corrections whatsoever, I will look to long into property stocks, as I believe it is much easier to sell for developers. Of course need to be selective though.

Ya. Me equities guy. Need to know physical mkt so that can move faster than analysts and fund mgrs.

Thats why Wheelock been buying up SC Global. Cheaper to buy the shares than the condos. But pls dont follow Wheelock blindly because you not Wheelock. Usually if bad things happened, you will 'pok' first before Wheelock 'pok'

But buying shares means need to worry abt debts and profitability and mgt. not just abt mark-to-mkt at every benchmark transaction.

Maybe a tip for those into property, buy 1-2 shares odd lot of the big prop companies. Then attend their AGM/EGM. Get your info first-hand from the big bosses, which are usually friendly to big and small shareholders. Definitely better than reading from newspapers and agents.

Off-topic.

Go check out old Warren Buffett MBA Talk. I think it was filmed in 1997.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfuXKpMFUjc&feature=related

Wow, 10 years ago ;)

I felt BigBird has been bit too pessimistic, but what he said had been frank. His experience and knowledge are excellent and his advise were for the good of other investors in the forum. :angel:

16 Dec 2007

The U.S. housing market might be slowing down the U.S. economy, but Asia is wondering how to cool down its markets.

From China and South Korea to India and Singapore, housing prices are soaring amid strong economic growth and surging demand from developers and upwardly mobile families who want to upgrade their homes.

Of all Asia's markets, China's is the hottest — although the boom is creating problems there, too. Housing inflation is pricing some people out of the market, and authorities worried about excessive development are raising interest rates and taking other steps to curb lending.

Experts also warn that many mortgages are risky and suggest the country could face a property crisis of its own someday.

For now, demand is being driven by people such as Li Ruoning, a single, 22-year-old public relations company employee in Shanghai — just one of millions across Asia whose hearts are set on fulfilling the dream of owning their own homes.

She borrowed about $40,000 from her parents in central China for the down payment on a 645-square-feet apartment just five minutes from her job.

What's more, Li says she would buy another apartment as an investment if she had the money.

"I'm pretty sure that housing prices will not drop, especially with the best locations," she said.

Many Chinese families are already deep into speculating on property, a main driver of the surging prices that have Chinese authorities worried a bubble might be forming. New apartments north of Shanghai's famous Bund waterfront are selling for a record $17,000 per square meter.

Yi Xianrong, a prominent economist at the China Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank, is one of those sounding the alarm.

He contends that China's housing loans are riskier than those in the U.S. because most loan applicants give false information about their assets and income.

Because China lacks a comprehensive credit data system, borrowers often manage to qualify for loans using false information, Yi says. He said he thinks the overall quality of property loans in China might be even worse than the risky mortgages that are causing so much trouble in the U.S.

"I estimate that the large majority of mortgage holders would not meet the standards for even subprime loans," Yi said in an interview with the state-run magazine Oriental Outlook.

A collapse of China's property market would reverberate throughout the world financial system — although few experts think it would happen anytime soon.

The lack of reliable credit information obscures the level of risk, especially in China.

"It's hard to tell what the total exposure to real estate lending is. It's very difficult to judge until you have a price correction," said Nick Lardy of the Peterson Institute, a Washington think tank.

Still, given the enormous demand for new housing across the region, a sudden correction in Asian property markets appears unlikely.

In India, where housing prices have been rising 30 percent to 40 percent annually during the past couple years and have remained firm so far this year, experts see fewer risks.

Families tend to rely more on personal resources, and banks have been steadily raising interest rates and cutting back on lending, which is modestly restraining development. A newly introduced credit score system is expected to help banks do a better job of managing risks.

"The Reserve Bank of India has been keeping a tight lid on banks' exposure to real estate," said Ritesh Maheswari, a credit analyst with Standard & Poor's in Singapore. "We don't foresee large-scale defaults."

Hong Kong is still regaining ground lost during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, and provisional government statistics show steady growth through September. Singapore's high-tech boom helped boost private home prices 8.3 percent in the second quarter from the first, the second-fastest pace on record.

In both cities, the talk is of how to cool, not revive, the market.

Meanwhile, property prices in Japan have just begun to rebound after 16 years of declines amid a surge in buying by investment funds, according to the Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. Recently, though, housing investment has fallen amid a tightening of building standards.

Across much of Asia, property lending differs markedly from that in the U.S. Lending standards vary from country to country, but in many markets including China, lenders tend to demand down payments of at least 30 percent and often much higher.

The big down payments mean "there's still quite a big cushion" against losses, said Sam Crispin, founder of Shanghai-based real estate firm Crispin Property Consultants.

16 Dec 2007

The U.S. housing market might be slowing down the U.S. economy, but Asia is wondering how to cool down its markets.

From China and South Korea to India and Singapore, housing prices are soaring amid strong economic growth and surging demand from developers and upwardly mobile families who want to upgrade their homes.

Of all Asia's markets, China's is the hottest — although the boom is creating problems there, too. Housing inflation is pricing some people out of the market, and authorities worried about excessive development are raising interest rates and taking other steps to curb lending.

Experts also warn that many mortgages are risky and suggest the country could face a property crisis of its own someday.

For now, demand is being driven by people such as Li Ruoning, a single, 22-year-old public relations company employee in Shanghai — just one of millions across Asia whose hearts are set on fulfilling the dream of owning their own homes.

She borrowed about $40,000 from her parents in central China for the down payment on a 645-square-feet apartment just five minutes from her job.

What's more, Li says she would buy another apartment as an investment if she had the money.

"I'm pretty sure that housing prices will not drop, especially with the best locations," she said.

Many Chinese families are already deep into speculating on property, a main driver of the surging prices that have Chinese authorities worried a bubble might be forming. New apartments north of Shanghai's famous Bund waterfront are selling for a record $17,000 per square meter.

Yi Xianrong, a prominent economist at the China Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank, is one of those sounding the alarm.

He contends that China's housing loans are riskier than those in the U.S. because most loan applicants give false information about their assets and income.

Because China lacks a comprehensive credit data system, borrowers often manage to qualify for loans using false information, Yi says. He said he thinks the overall quality of property loans in China might be even worse than the risky mortgages that are causing so much trouble in the U.S.

"I estimate that the large majority of mortgage holders would not meet the standards for even subprime loans," Yi said in an interview with the state-run magazine Oriental Outlook.

A collapse of China's property market would reverberate throughout the world financial system — although few experts think it would happen anytime soon.

The lack of reliable credit information obscures the level of risk, especially in China.

"It's hard to tell what the total exposure to real estate lending is. It's very difficult to judge until you have a price correction," said Nick Lardy of the Peterson Institute, a Washington think tank.

Still, given the enormous demand for new housing across the region, a sudden correction in Asian property markets appears unlikely.

In India, where housing prices have been rising 30 percent to 40 percent annually during the past couple years and have remained firm so far this year, experts see fewer risks.

Families tend to rely more on personal resources, and banks have been steadily raising interest rates and cutting back on lending, which is modestly restraining development. A newly introduced credit score system is expected to help banks do a better job of managing risks.

"The Reserve Bank of India has been keeping a tight lid on banks' exposure to real estate," said Ritesh Maheswari, a credit analyst with Standard & Poor's in Singapore. "We don't foresee large-scale defaults."

Hong Kong is still regaining ground lost during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, and provisional government statistics show steady growth through September. Singapore's high-tech boom helped boost private home prices 8.3 percent in the second quarter from the first, the second-fastest pace on record.

In both cities, the talk is of how to cool, not revive, the market.

Meanwhile, property prices in Japan have just begun to rebound after 16 years of declines amid a surge in buying by investment funds, according to the Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. Recently, though, housing investment has fallen amid a tightening of building standards.

Across much of Asia, property lending differs markedly from that in the U.S. Lending standards vary from country to country, but in many markets including China, lenders tend to demand down payments of at least 30 percent and often much higher.

The big down payments mean "there's still quite a big cushion" against losses, said Sam Crispin, founder of Shanghai-based real estate firm Crispin Property Consultants.

Personally, I think that China now is in very dangerous territory. Stocks and bubble are all in bubble territory. The upcoming couple of weeks should be very exciting, I see the Shanghai A share at a very important support, if it breaks, I think we will see some serious trouble ahead, technical wise. Currently a lot of shares in china make their profit through cross holding of other stocks. In fact even if it sustains at the current level, the upcoming results could be very bad as the companies will book losses. Check out either this issue or last issue of forbes, got a interesting article on the cross holdings.

If you all are a big fan of warren buffet, would have seen him selling petrol china at ard $14 HKD. At this level, warren buffet is not comfortable with petrochina, fundamental wise, and petrol china is trading ard 31 rmb on china exchange. I view the stock market as impt as the property mkt there, both are just venues for the speculators. I think if one don't sustain, the other will not too.

Globally, as an asset class, I see real estate weakening in US drastically and also the european region like UK and spain peaking. (http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/index.asp). However, with the recent rate cut, there seems to be a huge boost in asian property, especially that in hong kong. I think, the million dollar question now is whether there will be spillover effect from the US & european region, whether the china market can sustain and if there really is a huge correction overseas, how much impact will it be on our local property scene.

I felt BigBird has been bit too pessimistic, but what he said had been frank. His experience and knowledge are excellent and his advise were for the good of other investors in the forum. :angel:

Maybe I am too optimistic. :lol:

Maybe I am too optimistic. :lol:

I am optimistic on the future of singapore, just think that there will be turbulent time ahead. Personally, I am of the view that the future focus might be that of marina area. Just like when katong was the prime area, and move to orchard.

Every person have his own investing style suited for him. I think that if you have not been optimistic, you would have been whipped out quite awhile back and miss out a huge chunk of the profit :) deep down inside, I am scolding myself why i am so cautious, and not to forfeit my hdb when i see the market running :lol:

Anyway I am not buying anymore unless a good deal in Marina Area surface. This forum is a good way to control one's emotion. Thank you Sotong & Bidbird.

Just a fun story.

Today I meet a lady Taxi driver whom I meet back in 2003. She own a landed property in 6th ave in Singapore which her late husband bought in 1970s for around $20k and it is worth $3 million in today market.

She added that her husband own a 94,000 sq ft land in Nassim Rd back in 1960s which they sold to a developer call Lee Kah Wai (I am trying to spell from her way which she pronunce the name) for less than a few hundred thousand.

If she have hold on to the land it will be worth billions of $ in today's market. It is like a blessing in disguise telling me property investment is a long term thingy.

I am ready to hold my properties for 2 cycles or more from the event happen today. It is so strange to meet the same Taxi lady whom still remember me. I remember asking her about what she think about property investment from the trip from Church St back to Pasir Ris. She told me 2 things.

1. Make sure you can prevent the bank from taking away you property.
2. Long long term investment.

Thank you everybody, thank you.

PS: Today event is very strange, maybe something big is going to happen. Maybe good, maybe bad. But I feel damn good today.

Wow, the taxi driver won't be a taxi driver anymore if she actually sold her Nassim Road plot, she'd probably be relaxing in some big bungalow drinking red wine and having top quality cheese ;)

Just a fun story.

Today I meet a lady Taxi driver whom I meet back in 2003. She own a landed property in 6th ave in Singapore which her late husband bought in 1970s for around $20k and it is worth $3 million in today market.

She added that her husband own a 94,000 sq ft land in Nassim Rd back in 1960s which they sold to a developer call Lee Kah Wai (I am trying to spell from her way which she pronunce the name) for less than a few hundred thousand.


remind me of a similar story....friend's uncle bought some land in the 70s in hokkaido in the centre of a ski village....just retail space, for long term investment.....then global ski boom happen....fast forward to now, bank is fully paid and he is pocketing more than $150k/month in rent....a few years ago company tried to retrench him to a position he didn't like during restructuring so he told them off and went into early retirement....now happy days travelling around the world with his wife 'n friends...every month just get another $150k deposited into his account...his building is worth $9-10 million but he will never sell as his yield on original purchase price is more than 100%!!

Just a fun story.

Today I meet a lady Taxi driver whom I meet back in 2003. She own a landed property in 6th ave in Singapore which her late husband bought in 1970s for around $20k and it is worth $3 million in today market.

She added that her husband own a 94,000 sq ft land in Nassim Rd back in 1960s which they sold to a developer call Lee Kah Wai (I am trying to spell from her way which she pronunce the name) for less than a few hundred thousand.

If she have hold on to the land it will be worth billions of $ in today's market. It is like a blessing in disguise telling me property investment is a long term thingy.

I am ready to hold my properties for 2 cycles or more from the event happen today. It is so strange to meet the same Taxi lady whom still remember me. I remember asking her about what she think about property investment from the trip from Church St back to Pasir Ris. She told me 2 things.

1. Make sure you can prevent the bank from taking away you property.
2. Long long term investment.

Thank you everybody, thank you.

PS: Today event is very strange, maybe something big is going to happen. Maybe good, maybe bad. But I feel damn good today.

Bro shctaw, you are bullish because you own several properties... you own several properties because you are bullish...

I have yet to find someone who is bullish on the property market yet wouldn't hold any properties (unless the person has no money to buy/hold) and I have yet to know someone who is bearish but keeps buying properties...

Just like equity trading/investment is not for everyone or anyone, so is property speculation/investment... we know of multi-millionaires rising from successful investing in properties but sadly, we have also heard of failed property speculators, some even had to end their lives prematurely...

Bro shctaw, what the lady taxi driver gave you was a sign... how often do you meet the same taxi driver who would also remember her passenger? I too agree with her two simple rules and I believe you aren't a reckless and mindless property investor and that you can weather any storms ahead, if any...

Tell you guys already I not Gloom-Doom. If you know me at beginning of 2007, you will think I am #1 Property Bull in SG. Situation/conditions changed since Aug 07. Signs from assets mkt made me changed my view to bearish.

My dearest feathered-friend, we wouldn't know if you were really the "#1 Property Bull in SG"... afterall, you only registered and started posting in Sep 07... :lol:

But then again, your (somewhat doom-gloom) presence has actually put a balance back into this forum... a much needed wake-up call of sorts for the all gung-ho over-zealous speculators/opportunists who believes in nothing but an upward straight line for property prices... :)

My dearest feathered-friend, we wouldn't know if you were really the "#1 Property Bull in SG"... afterall, you only registered and started posting in Sep 07... :lol:

But then again, your (somewhat doom-gloom) presence has actually put a balance back into this forum... a much needed wake-up call of sorts for the all gung-ho over-zealous speculators/opportunists who believes in nothing but an upward straight line for property prices... :)

agree! i have also been thinking about a little philosophical "mind twister", which is that the presence of bears is actually a good sign for the bulls....i am much more worried about any asset market which rockets straight upwards....and i am much more bullish about the long term on markets where there are small corrections along the way to higher levels....

Bull or Bear next year?Some of my foreigner friends are trying to sell some properties to try to get a unit on MBR.Me?Waiting to sell at least one property next year when the mad rush comes back again.And perhaps to get one at MBR when I have enough bullets.

remind me of a similar story....friend's uncle bought some land in the 70s in hokkaido in the centre of a ski village....just retail space, for long term investment.....then global ski boom happen....fast forward to now, bank is fully paid and he is pocketing more than $150k/month in rent....a few years ago company tried to retrench him to a position he didn't like during restructuring so he told them off and went into early retirement....now happy days travelling around the world with his wife 'n friends...every month just get another $150k deposited into his account...his building is worth $9-10 million but he will never sell as his yield on original purchase price is more than 100%!!

Woah, $150k into his wallet while travelling aroung the world, so lucky ;)

one more thing to watch out for - govt. namely taxes and nationalisation (land acq act)

if raw land, still need to pay prop taxes. so cannot hold still need to sell a bit by bit every year.

next if land too big, govt will acquire if it is prime land and if no 'powerful' friends.

so to be long term prop investors, need to have other cashcows to pay for taxes and other holding costs. Something like CK Tang.




Just a fun story.

Today I meet a lady Taxi driver whom I meet back in 2003. She own a landed property in 6th ave in Singapore which her late husband bought in 1970s for around $20k and it is worth $3 million in today market.

She added that her husband own a 94,000 sq ft land in Nassim Rd back in 1960s which they sold to a developer call Lee Kah Wai (I am trying to spell from her way which she pronunce the name) for less than a few hundred thousand.

If she have hold on to the land it will be worth billions of $ in today's market. It is like a blessing in disguise telling me property investment is a long term thingy.

I am ready to hold my properties for 2 cycles or more from the event happen today. It is so strange to meet the same Taxi lady whom still remember me. I remember asking her about what she think about property investment from the trip from Church St back to Pasir Ris. She told me 2 things.

1. Make sure you can prevent the bank from taking away you property.
2. Long long term investment.

Thank you everybody, thank you.

PS: Today event is very strange, maybe something big is going to happen. Maybe good, maybe bad. But I feel damn good today.

one more thing to watch out for - govt. namely taxes and nationalisation (land acq act)

if raw land, still need to pay prop taxes. so cannot hold still need to sell a bit by bit every year.

next if land too big, govt will acquire if it is prime land and if no 'powerful' friends.

so to be long term prop investors, need to have other cashcows to pay for taxes and other holding costs. Something like CK Tang.

I've always wondered how some old folks can sustain staying in an old dilipidated house at a prime area. I've asked around and from what I understand, property tax isn't very high for those old houses, unless u do major A&As.

Nationalise, i guess part & parcel of investing, dun think the risk that high but I think if got to worry about this, really hard to invest in landed. (but then again, i will avoid buying landed near main road, less risk :))

More uncompleted private homes sold in November


The sale of uncompleted private homes in Singapore rose 3.5 per cent in November from a month ago.

According to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority, developers sold 611 uncompleted private condominium units, execuitve condominiums, and landed houses.

Fewer units were launched last month.

URA data showed that developers launched 598 units for sale in November.

That's 5.2 per cent less compared to the number launched in October.

Among those sold in November, units at ultra-luxurious The Ritz-Carlton Residences Singapore Cairnhill, chalked up the highest selling prices.

The two units sold fetched $4,515 per square foot.

Property consutlancy CB Richard Ellis said it was aware of two bulk purchases by investors in November.

The first was the purchase of 20 units at 8 Napier, and the next, 44 units at Cliveden at Grange.

Based on the latest figures, CBRE believes the uncompleted private homes sold in the entire 4th quarter will come to about 1,700 to 1,800 units.

More uncompleted private homes sold in November


The sale of uncompleted private homes in Singapore rose 3.5 per cent in November from a month ago.

According to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority, developers sold 611 uncompleted private condominium units, execuitve condominiums, and landed houses.

Fewer units were launched last month.

URA data showed that developers launched 598 units for sale in November.

That's 5.2 per cent less compared to the number launched in October.

Among those sold in November, units at ultra-luxurious The Ritz-Carlton Residences Singapore Cairnhill, chalked up the highest selling prices.

The two units sold fetched $4,515 per square foot.

Property consutlancy CB Richard Ellis said it was aware of two bulk purchases by investors in November.

The first was the purchase of 20 units at 8 Napier, and the next, 44 units at Cliveden at Grange.

Based on the latest figures, CBRE believes the uncompleted private homes sold in the entire 4th quarter will come to about 1,700 to 1,800 units.Quiz time: who bought the 20 units at 8 Napier? Clues: down-under:lol:

Quiz time: who bought the 20 units at 8 Napier? Clues: down-under:lol:

Macquarie?

Macquarie?
bingo!:lol:

Bull or Bear next year?Some of my foreigner friends are trying to sell some properties to try to get a unit on MBR.Me?Waiting to sell at least one property next year when the mad rush comes back again.And perhaps to get one at MBR when I have enough bullets.

Why wait? Convert now... the MBR might jump higher/faster than ur 1 or 2 added together. Why do 2day's job 2moro?

Anyway I am not buying anymore unless a good deal in Marina Area surface. This forum is a good way to control one's emotion. Thank you Sotong & Bidbird.

Funny, I've heard hundreds of stories like urs. Inspiring & thanks for sharing... will share 1 with u guys later...

Anyway, I'm done buying although I wish I have some ah kong's $ to buy more...

Up or down... that's it...

If up, I pat myself on the back and relax a little henceforth...

If down, just blame the person in the mirror and like lady taxi driver said, do whatever it takes to hold on or else bank takes it...

I'm a LONG investor anyway.

I personally think I at most got 1 (or 2) cycle left to go and if not now... I don't know when the stars will align again...

May I thank all active contributors & contarians alike for their invaluable feedback... and I must say this forum is definitely 1 of the best around, lots of honest opinions and facts & figures, unlike some others which have a lot of flaming & critisms & "challenge"...

bingo!:lol:

They are known for being very aggresive buyers. From their infrastructure funds and properties fund. :)

Just a fun story.

Today I meet a lady Taxi driver whom I meet back in 2003. She own a landed property in 6th ave in Singapore which her late husband bought in 1970s for around $20k and it is worth $3 million in today market.

She added that her husband own a 94,000 sq ft land in Nassim Rd back in 1960s which they sold to a developer call Lee Kah Wai (I am trying to spell from her way which she pronunce the name) for less than a few hundred thousand.

If she have hold on to the land it will be worth billions of $ in today's market. It is like a blessing in disguise telling me property investment is a long term thingy.

Hi Guys,

I would also add one thing.. we forgot to ask what happened to a "few hundred thousand dollars" earned by the lady taxi driver. Its alot of money back in the 60s. If it were well invested back then, it would still be racking in billions now or at least hundreds of mils. Like the famous "$1000 worth of Berkshire Shares in the 1965 will worth $7mil now.." Truely theres a worthy story about going long term on property but I also see a story that mis-management of money does not necessarily start from selling a property.. It can still be well invested.


remind me of a similar story....friend's uncle bought some land in the 70s in hokkaido in the centre of a ski village....just retail space, for long term investment.....then global ski boom happen....fast forward to now, bank is fully paid and he is pocketing more than $150k/month in rent....a few years ago company tried to retrench him to a position he didn't like during restructuring so he told them off and went into early retirement....now happy days travelling around the world with his wife 'n friends...every month just get another $150k deposited into his account...his building is worth $9-10 million but he will never sell as his yield on original purchase price is more than 100%!!

Hi Overlorden,

Thats a real success story! your friend's uncle is like racking in 1.8 mil a year. If I were him I would buy myself a position as a director in the company man.. retiree become executive director. :banana:

Hi Guys,

I would also add one thing.. we forgot to ask what happened to a "few hundred thousand dollars" earned by the lady taxi driver. Its alot of money back in the 60s. If it were well invested back then, it would still be racking in billions now or at least hundreds of mils. Like the famous "$1000 worth of Berkshire Shares in the 1965 will worth $7mil now.." Truely theres a worthy story about going long term on property but I also see a story that mis-management of money does not necessarily start from selling a property.. It can still be well invested.






She told me they spend all their money in ago-go bar or magnolia bar back in the 70s. All wealth squander away.

She is lucky to keep her landed home, now she drive taxi for fun.

She told me they spend all their money in ago-go bar or magnolia bar back in the 70s. All wealth squander away.

She is lucky to keep her landed home, now she drive taxi for fun.

They say a fool and his money are soon parted... I'll say, a fool and his money are soon partying... :lol:

just joking... christmas coming, time to party :banana::banana::banana:

By Morgan House; December 11, 2007

We U.S. citizens enjoy a magnificent and prosperous economy the rest of the world can only envy. Employment is humming along, inflation is tame, and the lines inside Starbucks everywhere remain annoyingly long. Despite a number of hiccups this year, the stock market is still just a rock's throw from another all-time high.

But we're coming up on a bend in the yellow brick road, and going 'round it could cause the party lights to go dark quickly. That could change everything about the way we and future Americans live. Sound scary? It is.

A nation built on debt?
Let's go back to the 1990s. It wasn't a bad time to be an American. Ace of Base was topping the charts, the economy was parading freely, and the stock market could make a Chihuahua look smart. With newfound wealth came newfound toys and spending habits, and a drive to leverage up to your eyeballs to fund the cars, boats, and multiple TVs for your second or third home. Since 1990, non-mortgage household debt has gone up more than threefold, outstripping economic growth and inflation.

But, heck, the amount of debt we had was not a problem! The economy kept buzzing at a pace that allowed consumers to fund their debt-laden habits. And with reasonable interest rates throughout the '90s, layering on consumption outside your earnings means wasn't that big a deal. The indulgences in spending kept going, and going ...

The music stopped. But the party's still kicking ...
It wasn't until 2000 when the Nasdaq parade came to an end that the party looked like it truly might be over. With trillions of dollars of wealth purged from consumers' wallets, the economy was startled into a justified panic.

Then as the dust around the tech bubble cleared, Sept. 11 knocked us off our feet. An uncertainty we as a nation had never experienced before loomed over our heads. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan prescribed a quick and drastic resuscitation in the form of a massive cut in interest rates to help revive the economy. And it worked, perhaps too well.

Since 2001, the U.S. has had the benefit of laughably low interest rates. Investors, still shell-shocked from the stock market turmoil, began salivating over another asset class they could exploit with those low rates -- real estate.

Savvy businessmen finessed ways to market exotic mortgage products to consumers most of us wouldn't lend a cup of sugar. Thus the birth of the subprime-mortgage calamity that propelled companies such as Countrywide into the stratosphere and allowed homebuilders such as Beazer (NYSE: BZH) and D.R. Horton to crank out as many subdivisions as they could dream of.

I'll save you the ending of this real estate saga -- we know how much of a mess we're in now. And it's probably worse than any of us could have dreamed, with massive write-downs from respected financial institutions, such as Citigroup and Merrill Lynch.

What now? Many of us would like to believe Uncle Bernanke will bail us out by slashing interest rates and bringing back the good old days. Right?

Kind of -- and that's where the massive economic debacle begins, my friends. Those same spend-happy consumers raised in the go-go 1990s -- they're still alive and kicking, and you better believe they still love to spend.

Dollar, schmollar ... I'm gonna spend!
The massive account deficit we currently hold with the rest of the world totals some $800 billion per year. Where the heck is all that money coming from? From foreign investors in China, Japan, the Middle East, and nearly every other conceivable corner of the globe. They have no problem lending us the difference, because while we as a country spend more than we make -- we're still incredibly wealthy and good on our word.

But like a massive Ponzi scheme, the fun will certainly end. In the past six years, the value of the dollar has taken a serious beating. The euro, worth $0.85 a few years ago, is now worth $1.47. Yikes. But because the average American shops mostly within the borders, this probably isn't too pressing an issue, and so the greenback's plummet doesn't show its full effects.

How about the foreign investors funding our perilous spending party? You'd better believe they're keeping a close eye on the dollar's precipitous plunge. As a foreign investor holding assets denominated in dollars, every drop in the dollar erodes the value their investments will be worth when they choose to convert them back to their native currency, whether yuan, yen, euros, or pounds.

How do we keep our foreign investors happy? With a rapidly depreciating currency, there is but one way to keep them enticed: higher interest rates. You heard it: higher interest rates. With the housing and credit markets swimming in turmoil, the idea of higher interest rates sends shivers down the backs of homeowners facing foreclosure, and rightly so.

I think you can see the predicament we face: One part of our economy demands lower interest rates to bail out the housing debacle, and foreign investors who finance our massive spending habits demand higher interest rates to forestall the dollar's demise.

My goodness, this is looking scary. What will happen next? More importantly, what's a Fool to do?

By Morgan House; December 12, 2007

In part 1, we took a look at the causes of the current tug-of-war between forces that will fight over lower and higher interest rates in the coming days of our American economy.

To recap, here's our problem: Americans spend much, much more than they probably should and rely heavily on debt to fund their purchases. A huge amount of this debt is funded by foreign investors who enjoy the relative stability of American markets. As a result, we have an enormous account deficit -- nearly $800 billion per year.

With this massive account deficit comes a weakening dollar. With a weakening dollar, foreign investors will begin to demand higher interest rates to make their investment in the American economy worth their while. Sounds easy enough! But we have that pesky problem of our current real estate and credit disruptions that could place our economy in a tailspin and, hence, require lower interest rates to bail us out. Who is going to win this battle?

In this Fool's mind, it certainly isn't the American consumer. We won't stop our spend-happy ways any time soon, and foreigners will happily look elsewhere to put their money. Here's why.

Superpower America?
Don't kid yourself. U.S consumers will go out kicking and screaming before they agree to slash consumption of foreign goods by $800 billion per year; not to mention doing so might self-destruct the economy in the first place. We can rule that option out: Americans won't retreat from their debt-laden spending habits. But can we count on foreign investors to keep the party rolling? Don't count on that, either.

For decades, there haven't been many attractive foreign currencies for foreign investors to place their massive stockpiles in -- the U.S dollar still remains a default choice. But times are certainly changing. With the massive increase in globalization in the past decade, the United States has surrendered part of its economic moat to once economically non-threatening countries like China and India. The longer this trend continues, the less the dollar will serve as the currency of choice for global investors.

The more and more the dollar continues to plunge -- and with little in sight to show an end to its slide -- other currencies such as the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the euro are becoming increasingly attractive in lieu of the greenback. With interest rates being slashed in an attempt to prop up the sickness in the housing market, the dollar's dive should stay firmly on track for a while to come.

Cue Taps?
It's a scary scenario: a U.S. economy staring a recession square in the face, credit markets all but frozen in place, real estate across the country sitting on a foreclosure time bomb, and a need for higher interest rates just to keep the foreign investors interested could spell trouble for this nation on a level we've never seen before. What's a Fool to do?

Before you begin constructing a fallout shelter in your backyard, you should know there are a few things you can do to prepare yourself for economic headwinds down the road. Some of the most basic investment principles you should already be following will become increasingly important should interest rates begin to rise in the future.

Avoid businesses that can't open their doors without debt
We've already seen some serious damage done to companies that even dabbled in credit markets in the past few years. Banking giants such as Citigroup and Washington Mutual have been clobbered from real-estate-related writedowns, and even companies that have nothing to do with real estate, but rely on debt, such as US Airways and Blackstone, are certainly feeling the pinch from a roiled debt market. Think it's bad now? You certainly don't want to be on the bad end of these companies if rates start going up.

Instead, pay special attention to companies such as Microsoft, Texas Instruments, or K-Swiss -- all companies that don't count on any long-term debt to fund their operations. In turbulent times, not having to be at the whim of debt to finance their day-to-day business gives these companies a serious leg up.

Give yourself a cushion
With interest rates in a precarious position and the economic future of the U.S in shaky hands, it's increasingly important that you don't fall into any interest rate holes. The solution to this problem sounds as easy as it comes, but seems to elude many:

Stay out of debt.
Save your money.
Both of these tasks require little more than some basic knowledge and a healthy dose of perseverance. The Motley Fool provides a highly recommended 60-second guide to getting out of debt, as well as some money-saving tips even the most frugal of us should catch up on.

I will survive
Betting against the United States economy long term hasn't ever panned out well for anyone, and it certainly may continue that way for some time. While the sky won't be falling to the ground anytime soon, as an investor, it's important to be cognizant of the big-scale issues our nation is facing and how they can have an effect on your money. Develop a sound game plan, stay disciplined, and be prepared for whatever gets thrown at you down the road. In these crazy days, it's the surest path to financial success.

I understand today that the big old bungalow ppty opp ACS primary at Cairnhill is being eyed by Hayden ......

I understand today that the big old bungalow ppty opp ACS primary at Cairnhill is being eyed by Hayden ......that bungalow has been eyed for many many yearssssssss. as long as the owner is still around, there is almost to zero chance.....

I understand today that the big old bungalow ppty opp ACS primary at Cairnhill is being eyed by Hayden ......

Hayden just sold 2 units of Ritz Carlton Resi last months. Still want to leverage up. Not scared cannot sell their existing prop?

This story was printed from channelnewsasia.com

Title : Kuwait Finance House buys 97 units in Goodwood Residence
By :
Date : 18 December 2007 2300 hrs (SST)
URL : http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/318088/1/.html


SINGAPORE: Kuwait Finance House is pumping another S$818 million into Singapore real estate.

This time, it is buying 97 units in Goodwood Residence – a high-end residential development at Orchard Road.

This is the single largest purchase for a residential development still under construction.

Singapore-listed Guocoland is the developer behind Goodwood Residence.

The 97 apartments are of the four-bedroom type, ranging from 2,500 to 3,900 square feet each.

Altogether, Goodwood Residence will have 210 apartments.

The project was conferred the Green Mark Award (Platinum) award earlier this year because of its green features.

Kuwait Finance House is a market leader in the Islamic banking industry in Kuwait.

In August, it paid S$286 million for 56 units in Keppel Land's waterfront development, Reflections at Keppel Bay.


- CNA/so

This story was printed from channelnewsasia.com

Title : Kuwait Finance House buys 97 units in Goodwood Residence
By :
Date : 18 December 2007 2300 hrs (SST)
URL : http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/318088/1/.html


SINGAPORE: Kuwait Finance House is pumping another S$818 million into Singapore real estate.

This time, it is buying 97 units in Goodwood Residence – a high-end residential development at Orchard Road.

This is the single largest purchase for a residential development still under construction.

Singapore-listed Guocoland is the developer behind Goodwood Residence.

The 97 apartments are of the four-bedroom type, ranging from 2,500 to 3,900 square feet each.

Altogether, Goodwood Residence will have 210 apartments.

The project was conferred the Green Mark Award (Platinum) award earlier this year because of its green features.

Kuwait Finance House is a market leader in the Islamic banking industry in Kuwait.

In August, it paid S$286 million for 56 units in Keppel Land's waterfront development, Reflections at Keppel Bay.


- CNA/so

Kuwait paid $818 million for the 97 units! :eek:

Ave price per unit is $8.43m.

So 2500 to 3900 sqf will imply $2162 - $3373 psf.

Singapore Property Stocks Slow as Tax Rise Curbs Boom (Update1)

By Chen Shiyin

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's property companies may lag behind Asian real estate developers for a second straight year in 2008 as government limits on speculation cool the housing market.

CapitaLand Ltd., Southeast Asia's largest developer, is suffering its biggest quarterly decline in more than six years after the government raised development taxes by as much as 58 percent. The Singapore Property Equities Index dropped 19 percent so far this quarter, the most since a 35 percent plunge in the third quarter of 2001.

International buyers, who accounted for more than 40 percent of real estate purchases in 2006, bought 38 percent fewer properties last quarter as capital-market gridlock caused by rising U.S. subprime mortgage defaults curbed borrowing worldwide. The supply of new homes for sale next year may almost double by value compared with 2006, weighing on prices, according to CLSA Ltd.

``We can find better propositions elsewhere in the region, where there's more growth and value to be found,'' said Leslie Phang, who helps manage $1 billion at Commonwealth Private Bank in the city. He doesn't own local builders and prefers Hong Kong developer Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.

The decline in Singapore's property gauge compares with a 10 percent drop in the Bloomberg Asia Pacific Real Estate Index, which tracks 164 companies. The Bloomberg World Real Estate Index has slipped 8.9 percent this quarter. Singapore's property index climbed 1.3 percent today, the biggest rise since Nov. 29.

Banks Hiring

Singapore's home price index increased 8.3 percent in the three months ended September from the second quarter. That matched the June quarter's pace, the first time the growth rate failed to rise since mid-2005.

Demand for apartments grew this year as banks hired more expatriates. New York-based Morgan Stanley, the No. 2 securities firm by market value, said in February it would open a local prime brokerage office servicing hedge funds. Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, followed with its own prime brokerage office in March.

About 19,200 jobs were created in financial services through September this year, government data show. Foreigners accounted for about 43 percent of total purchases in 2006, up from 14 percent in 2005, according to CLSA, the Asian investment-banking arm of Paris-based Credit Agricole SA. Singapore home prices rose 13 percent last year, beating all other Asian markets, according to Global Property Guide, a Manila-based researcher.

The number of foreign purchases fell 38 percent to 2,073 last quarter, from a record high of 3,332 in the three months ended June 30, according to DTZ Singapore, the local unit of DTZ Holdings Plc, a London real-estate brokerage.

`Policy Risk'

The government scrapped a program on Oct. 26 that allowed buyers of planned apartments to pay 10 percent of the asking price and defer the remainder until completion. Builders face higher fees on new developments after the government raised charges by 58 percent for apartment projects and by 42 percent for commercial properties, starting Sept. 1.

``There are still a lot of policy risks in this segment,'' said Daphne Roth, vice president of equity research at ABN Amro Private Banking in Singapore. ``The government doesn't want home prices to go up too much, too quickly and the policy changes introduced so far have already impacted the market.''

CapitaLand has slumped 25 percent in Singapore stock exchange trading during the fourth quarter, set for its biggest quarterly drop since a 47 percent plunge in the three months ended September 2001. It has lost 29 percent after reaching a record high on April 26, even though third-quarter profit more than doubled from a year earlier.

Cheaper Than Peers

City Developments Ltd., controlled by billionaire Kwek Leng Beng, declined 18 percent since the start of this quarter and plunged 23 percent from its all-time high on June 19.

The selloff has left local property shares cheaper than their regional peers. The Singapore Property Index is valued at 11 times earnings, less than a third of its high of 38 times in March 2006. The Bloomberg measure of Asian real-estate stocks is valued at 19 times, while the global index is at 17 times.

Thue Isen, who helps oversee $1 billion at Bankinvest Group in Singapore, including shares of CapitaLand and City Developments, said the decline is a chance to buy local developers, which he finds more attractive than those in Hong Kong and China.

``People's expectations for the property market here have definitely dampened, which justifies some of those declines,'' he said. ``If you look at economic and income growth and new offices starting up, the fundamentals haven't changed that much, so the pullback looks a bit excessive.''

Forecasts Cut

CIMB-GK Research Pte, based in Singapore, cut its price forecasts in a Dec. 10 note. Properties costing at least S$1,200 ($831) a square foot may climb 8 percent in 2008, compared with an earlier forecast of 15 percent. Overall home prices will rise 15 percent from a previous estimate of a 25 percent increase, said Donald Chua, a Singapore-based analyst.

The brokerage, a unit of CIMB Bank Bhd., Malaysia's largest investment bank, also cut its rating on the industry to ``underweight'' from ``overweight,'' citing slowing growth. The firm lowered its recommendation on CapitaLand to ``neutral'' from ``outperform.''

Price increases in other Asian cities continue to accelerate. The cost of Hong Kong's luxury homes jumped 12 percent in the third quarter from the second, the most since 2004, according to Los Angeles-based commercial property broker CB Richard Ellis. Prices in 70 major Chinese cities rose 9.5 percent in October, the fastest since 2005.

Worst Performance

The city-state's real estate benchmark has gained 7.8 percent this year, its worst annual performance since 2002. It jumped 65 percent last year and 39 percent in 2005. The Singapore All Equities Index has increased 20 percent this year.

The Asian property index has risen 28 percent in 2007, after climbing 32 percent and 26 percent in the previous years.

CLSA forecasts that as many as 12,000 new homes under construction could be up for sale in the next year to 18 months in the most expensive residential districts, driving up supply and hurting prices. The ``unprecedented'' inventory is worth S$21 billion, almost twice the S$11 billion invested in real estate in 2006, according to Yew Kiang Wong, a CLSA analyst in Singapore.

Increased regulation and the spread of U.S. subprime mortgage defaults are denting home purchases. The Business Times newspaper reported on Dec. 3 that the value of sales of private properties plunged to S$2.9 billion so far this quarter, less than 20 percent of the S$15.6 billion for the previous three months.

``There's just too much negative news out there right now, with the government regulations and concerns over subprime,'' said Nicole Sze, Singapore-based investment analyst at Bank Julius Baer, which manages $350 billion. ``We're unlikely to see the same kind of broad-based rally that we've had.''

This story was printed from channelnewsasia.com

Title : Kuwait Finance House buys 97 units in Goodwood Residence
By :
Date : 18 December 2007 2300 hrs (SST)
URL : http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/318088/1/.html


SINGAPORE: Kuwait Finance House is pumping another S$818 million into Singapore real estate.

This time, it is buying 97 units in Goodwood Residence – a high-end residential development at Orchard Road.

This is the single largest purchase for a residential development still under construction.

Singapore-listed Guocoland is the developer behind Goodwood Residence.

The 97 apartments are of the four-bedroom type, ranging from 2,500 to 3,900 square feet each.

Altogether, Goodwood Residence will have 210 apartments.

The project was conferred the Green Mark Award (Platinum) award earlier this year because of its green features.

Kuwait Finance House is a market leader in the Islamic banking industry in Kuwait.

In August, it paid S$286 million for 56 units in Keppel Land's waterfront development, Reflections at Keppel Bay.


- CNA/so

Personally, I try to read more into all these bulk purchases. The price of around $3000 psf for goodwood residences is incredible. A lot of developers would want to sell bulk to Kuwait finance house, but what i understand is its not easy, price is not the main issue.

Just pure speculation on my part. Kuwait Finance House is very heavily involved into malaysia properties also. Could it be more for strategic reasons also. They will be will be entering into a joint venture with a local bank to develop the country’s tallest building that is set to overtake the Petronas Twin Towers. Possibly something to do with Hong Leong? Or could it be other projects? :)

Singapore Property Stocks Slow as Tax Rise Curbs Boom (Update1)

By Chen Shiyin

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's property companies may lag behind Asian real estate developers for a second straight year in 2008 as government limits on speculation cool the housing market.

CapitaLand Ltd., Southeast Asia's largest developer, is suffering its biggest quarterly decline in more than six years after the government raised development taxes by as much as 58 percent. The Singapore Property Equities Index dropped 19 percent so far this quarter, the most since a 35 percent plunge in the third quarter of 2001.

International buyers, who accounted for more than 40 percent of real estate purchases in 2006, bought 38 percent fewer properties last quarter as capital-market gridlock caused by rising U.S. subprime mortgage defaults curbed borrowing worldwide. The supply of new homes for sale next year may almost double by value compared with 2006, weighing on prices, according to CLSA Ltd.

``We can find better propositions elsewhere in the region, where there's more growth and value to be found,'' said Leslie Phang, who helps manage $1 billion at Commonwealth Private Bank in the city. He doesn't own local builders and prefers Hong Kong developer Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.

The decline in Singapore's property gauge compares with a 10 percent drop in the Bloomberg Asia Pacific Real Estate Index, which tracks 164 companies. The Bloomberg World Real Estate Index has slipped 8.9 percent this quarter. Singapore's property index climbed 1.3 percent today, the biggest rise since Nov. 29.

Banks Hiring

Singapore's home price index increased 8.3 percent in the three months ended September from the second quarter. That matched the June quarter's pace, the first time the growth rate failed to rise since mid-2005.

Demand for apartments grew this year as banks hired more expatriates. New York-based Morgan Stanley, the No. 2 securities firm by market value, said in February it would open a local prime brokerage office servicing hedge funds. Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, followed with its own prime brokerage office in March.

About 19,200 jobs were created in financial services through September this year, government data show. Foreigners accounted for about 43 percent of total purchases in 2006, up from 14 percent in 2005, according to CLSA, the Asian investment-banking arm of Paris-based Credit Agricole SA. Singapore home prices rose 13 percent last year, beating all other Asian markets, according to Global Property Guide, a Manila-based researcher.

The number of foreign purchases fell 38 percent to 2,073 last quarter, from a record high of 3,332 in the three months ended June 30, according to DTZ Singapore, the local unit of DTZ Holdings Plc, a London real-estate brokerage.

`Policy Risk'

The government scrapped a program on Oct. 26 that allowed buyers of planned apartments to pay 10 percent of the asking price and defer the remainder until completion. Builders face higher fees on new developments after the government raised charges by 58 percent for apartment projects and by 42 percent for commercial properties, starting Sept. 1.

``There are still a lot of policy risks in this segment,'' said Daphne Roth, vice president of equity research at ABN Amro Private Banking in Singapore. ``The government doesn't want home prices to go up too much, too quickly and the policy changes introduced so far have already impacted the market.''

CapitaLand has slumped 25 percent in Singapore stock exchange trading during the fourth quarter, set for its biggest quarterly drop since a 47 percent plunge in the three months ended September 2001. It has lost 29 percent after reaching a record high on April 26, even though third-quarter profit more than doubled from a year earlier.

Cheaper Than Peers

City Developments Ltd., controlled by billionaire Kwek Leng Beng, declined 18 percent since the start of this quarter and plunged 23 percent from its all-time high on June 19.

The selloff has left local property shares cheaper than their regional peers. The Singapore Property Index is valued at 11 times earnings, less than a third of its high of 38 times in March 2006. The Bloomberg measure of Asian real-estate stocks is valued at 19 times, while the global index is at 17 times.

Thue Isen, who helps oversee $1 billion at Bankinvest Group in Singapore, including shares of CapitaLand and City Developments, said the decline is a chance to buy local developers, which he finds more attractive than those in Hong Kong and China.

``People's expectations for the property market here have definitely dampened, which justifies some of those declines,'' he said. ``If you look at economic and income growth and new offices starting up, the fundamentals haven't changed that much, so the pullback looks a bit excessive.''

Forecasts Cut

CIMB-GK Research Pte, based in Singapore, cut its price forecasts in a Dec. 10 note. Properties costing at least S$1,200 ($831) a square foot may climb 8 percent in 2008, compared with an earlier forecast of 15 percent. Overall home prices will rise 15 percent from a previous estimate of a 25 percent increase, said Donald Chua, a Singapore-based analyst.

The brokerage, a unit of CIMB Bank Bhd., Malaysia's largest investment bank, also cut its rating on the industry to ``underweight'' from ``overweight,'' citing slowing growth. The firm lowered its recommendation on CapitaLand to ``neutral'' from ``outperform.''

Price increases in other Asian cities continue to accelerate. The cost of Hong Kong's luxury homes jumped 12 percent in the third quarter from the second, the most since 2004, according to Los Angeles-based commercial property broker CB Richard Ellis. Prices in 70 major Chinese cities rose 9.5 percent in October, the fastest since 2005.

Worst Performance

The city-state's real estate benchmark has gained 7.8 percent this year, its worst annual performance since 2002. It jumped 65 percent last year and 39 percent in 2005. The Singapore All Equities Index has increased 20 percent this year.

The Asian property index has risen 28 percent in 2007, after climbing 32 percent and 26 percent in the previous years.

CLSA forecasts that as many as 12,000 new homes under construction could be up for sale in the next year to 18 months in the most expensive residential districts, driving up supply and hurting prices. The ``unprecedented'' inventory is worth S$21 billion, almost twice the S$11 billion invested in real estate in 2006, according to Yew Kiang Wong, a CLSA analyst in Singapore.

Increased regulation and the spread of U.S. subprime mortgage defaults are denting home purchases. The Business Times newspaper reported on Dec. 3 that the value of sales of private properties plunged to S$2.9 billion so far this quarter, less than 20 percent of the S$15.6 billion for the previous three months.

``There's just too much negative news out there right now, with the government regulations and concerns over subprime,'' said Nicole Sze, Singapore-based investment analyst at Bank Julius Baer, which manages $350 billion. ``We're unlikely to see the same kind of broad-based rally that we've had.''

If the market sustains, its time to get in fast on the property stocks. Gotta watch closely :lol: Anyway shouldn't compare property companies via P/E...

Yes, quite an incredible purchase, and at such a high price !!
Shows confidence in area/SG.

Noted project is practically opposite Newton One. Should give N1 a boost ??
If so, whole area lifted ? eg Residences@Evelyn nearby, also Allgreen's Viva (to launch in 1Q maybe). And Keppel's remaining units at PI (noted that walking distance to Newton for Goodwood and PI similar (apart from crossing the road)...
:)

Given rumoured price of over $3k, it also implies developer should be selling at a higher price when launched to the public. At least 10% higher ?

Yes, quite an incredible purchase, and at such a high price !!
Shows confidence in area/SG.

Noted project is practically opposite Newton One. Should give N1 a boost ??
If so, whole area lifted ? eg Residences@Evelyn nearby, also Allgreen's Viva (to launch in 1Q maybe). And Keppel's remaining units at PI (noted that walking distance to Newton for Goodwood and PI similar (apart from crossing the road)...
:)

Given rumoured price of over $3k, it also implies developer should be selling at a higher price when launched to the public. At least 10% higher ?

I guess it will have some impact definitely! At least sellers will definitely try higher. But there will be an extend where it will go as at 3k, there is way too many choices, one tree hill, paterson, the grange, marina bay area... at the present moment...

Banking System is as strong as the weakest link.

If SWFs only bails out the top-brands (Citi, UBS, MS, etc), who will pay good money to bail out the Tier-2 or Tier 3. Banking system will see more blood.

If big names like UBS & Morgan Stanley needs to sell a pound of flesh to get financing, who to lend money to big projects.

Even LBO kings like Blackstone or KKR are doing small deals < USD 1bn. Financing is not there.

Bank Capital get whacked. $1bn less in bank capital means $10-20 bn less in new loans. Credit will be tight. Liquidity machine in reverse gear now.

China extends lifeline to Morgan Stanley
By Sameera Anand | 20 December 2007

Read this article online at:
http://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIID=99876


China Investment Corporation helps Morgan Stanley to stem its losses with a $5 billion capital infusion. Meanwhile, CEO John Mack agrees to forego his 2007 bonus.
Morgan Stanley has declared a $9.4 billion fourth-quarter mortgage-related write down and has said China Investment Corporation will invest $5 billion to buy up to 9.9% of the US bank.

Six weeks ago, on November 7, Morgan Stanley indicated it was taking a write down of $3.7 billion of subprime assets based on valuations as of October 31. It has now taken another $4.1 billion of write downs based on subprime trading positions on November 30, taking the total to $7.8 billion. It has attributed the situation to the “deterioration and lack of liquidity in the market for subprime and other mortgage-related securities since August 2007”.

The $9.4 billion also includes $1.2 billion of write downs related to European non-conforming loans, commercial mortgage-backed securities and other loans. An additional $0.4 billion relates to securities in the subsidiary banks classified as "available for sale".

Morgan Stanley clarified that its “remaining direct net US subprime exposure is $1.8 billion at November 30, down from $10.4 billion at August 31”.

“The write down Morgan Stanley took this quarter is deeply disappointing,” says John Mack, chairman and CEO of Morgan Stanley in a written statement. “Ultimately, accountability for our results rests with me so I’ve told our compensation committee that I will not accept a bonus for 2007.”

Mack referred to the $9.4 billion as “isolated losses by a small trading team in one part of the firm”.

He also highlighted that for the year the US investment bank had delivered “record results in investment banking, equities and asset management” and had more than doubled pre-tax income in global wealth management.

Morgan Stanley will be bailed out through an issue of $5 billion of equity units to China Investment Corporation (CIC). The equity units bear a coupon of 9% per annum, payable quarterly, and are mandatorily convertible into Morgan Stanley common shares at maturity on August 17, 2010. The conversion price will be based on a reference price, which will be determined the week of December 17, with a threshold at a premium of 20% to the reference price. CIC has agreed it will own a maximum of 9.9% of Morgan Stanley post-conversion.

CIC was established in September 2007 to manage China’s foreign exchange reserves and has assets under management of $200 billion, of which two-thirds are for domestic investment and one-third for overseas investment.

CIC clarified in a written statement that the decision is based on its belief that “Morgan Stanley has potential for long term growth” and that the investment “is a long term, passive financial investment”. CIC was advised by Lazard with legal advice from Sullivan & Cromwell.

Mack linked the CIC investment to Morgan Stanley’s commitment to China and the $45 billion the US investment bank has helped Chinese clients raise in the international capital markets since 2000.

Morgan Stanley said the capital infusion would “bolster the firm's capital position and enhance growth opportunities globally, while also building on Morgan Stanley's deep historic ties and market leadership in China”. It also clarified that CIC would get no management rights or board representation as a result of its investment.

Morgan Stanley is the latest in a series of casualties which the US subprime situation has caused. In October, Bear Stearns inducted Citic as an investor to shore up its capital by $1 billion. Then, in November, Citi announced a sale of up to 4.9% of its shares to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority to bolster its capital base by $7.5 billion. And most recently, on December 10, the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and an undisclosed strategic investor from the Middle East extended a $11.5 billion lifeline to Swiss bank, UBS.

Citi's CEO Charles (Chuck) Prince took responsibility for the losses and resigned in November. Merrill Lynch's boss Stan O'Neal resigned in October for similar reasons.

Vikram Pandit who has replaced Prince in the top job at Citi is expected to take some hard decisions with respect to business lines at the US bank and, the word on the street, is that carve-outs can be expected. At UBS, no heads have rolled but bosses have indicated that the role of investment banking in the Swiss firm - which was traditionally known for its wealth and asset management practices - will be closely examined.

One thing seems clear – Mack is not going to be the only one foregoing a bonus in 2007. And as the shadow cast by the subprime situation lengthens, bankers in Asia can no longer reasonably expect to remain immune to the woes – even if they are not directly responsible for the losses.

Allco REIT got $300m in short term debt coming due in March 08. $200m due in Nov 08.

If credit crunch continues, at worst cannot get refinancing, meaning insolvent. at best, interest expenses shoot up, less money for distirbution.

REITs are not fixed deposit or bonds equivalents.

Moody's warns of less stable ratings in Asia
By Anette Jönsson, | 20 December 2007

Read this article online at:
http://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIID=99900


The number of Asian corporate ratings with a negative outlook has increased sharply in the fourth quarter, the ratings agency says.
Strong economic growth and the large liquidity pool have so far been able to uphold the generally positive credit fundamentals in Asia, even as the subprime-triggered credit turmoil has wreaked havoc in the rest of the world. But in a new report, Moody’s Investors Service warns that signs of a possible disruption to the relative stability of Asian corporates have started to emerge in the fourth quarter.

“Heading into 2008, the positive effects of the region’s robust economic performance could be dampened if tight liquidity drives interest costs higher, or if rising raw material costs continue to squeeze margins,” the ratings agency says.

The warning signs include a sharp increase in the number of Asian corporate ratings with a negative outlook to 14 in the fourth quarter from eight at the end of the second quarter and nine at the end of the third quarter. Moody’s also lowered its ratings for several Asian corporates during the quarter, including Singapore-listed Allco Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust and Mapletree Logistics Trust.

“While no liquidity concerns have yet appeared, the disruption of the cross-border debt markets and the contagion effect on the rest of the capital markets, including equity markets, will remain a major concern. As such, liquidity management remains a key credit risk and will need to be monitored closely,” Moody’s say in the report.

If the credit crunch spreads to Asia, the companies to be affected first are those with weak credit profiles or those that are highly leveraged. Issuers who operate within cyclical industries or who have large refinancing risks in the next six to nine months will face the greatest challenges, it says.

A recent example that suggests lenders are becoming more risk-averse is Australia’s Centro Properties which earlier this week said it was having trouble refinancing its outstanding loans. The owner of close to 700 shopping malls in the US added that it may have to sell assets to cover its obligations. The news caused its shares to fall 86% over two days before edging up 15% yesterday.

Overall, Australian companies are more exposed to a widening credit tightening than their Asian counterparts as they rely more on capital market funding. Asian companies rely to a greater extent on bank loans and within the region banks continue to have the capacity and the appetite to lend.

Most of the Asian companies with “speculative-grade” ratings and weaker liquidity metrics - due to large capital expenditures and expansion plans – can be found in the technology sector, or among Indonesian corporates or Chinese property developers.

Overall though, the credit quality among Asian companies remained stable for most of 2007, according to the report. Positive ratings actions were primarily driven by improved credit fundamentals, while negative actions were driven by company-specific issues such as aggressive expansion and imprudent financial management that led to liquidity or refinancing concerns.

Aside from subprime-related issues, Moody’s say another two factors that are likely to determine the direction and volatility of Asian credit ratings in 2008 are a potential slowdown of economic growth in the US and regulatory risks.

Allco REIT got $300m in short term debt coming due in March 08. $200m due in Nov 08.

If credit crunch continues, at worst cannot get refinancing, meaning insolvent. at best, interest expenses shoot up, less money for distirbution.

REITs are not fixed deposit or bonds equivalents.

Interesting times we are in, on the one hand we see serious credit problem with some companies, on the other we see offices building flipped and funds buying big time. I see lots of trading opportunities ahead.

For fast reference, can go to this site.
http://reitdata.blogspot.com/
:)

Interesting times we are in, on the one hand we see serious credit problem with some companies, on the other we see offices building flipped and funds buying big time. I see lots of trading opportunities ahead.

For fast reference, can go to this site.
http://reitdata.blogspot.com/
:)

If price do not coming down, where got chance to buy cheap.

NAV of $1.30 for Allco will mean that if the price drop any further, all the assets attach to this Reit will be selling at hugh discount. It will make the REIT safer at lower price and not more risky. The loan Allco Reit took is to purchase properties and not for business venture which may have 0% return or worst, negative return.

Allco Reit owns Properties which generate income(just like any other Reit), risk will come when no one want to rent the properties the Reit is holding.

PS: I do own some Allco Reit, infact I am vested in more than 3 Reits as I find Reits can balance a high return porfolio which carry a high risk short term and medium to low risk in the long term. Have FUN investing, if you find you are very stressful in investing, you are investing in the wrong field.

Centro: Recent example of Aussie Prop Co who cannot get refinancing.

Quote Tan Chin Nam of IGB (built Mid-Valley in KL, Parkway Parade and Shangri-La in SG):

"Cash is emperor, bank facility is king, and you are a prince among men, my friend, if you have cash when the bank calls your loan"

Frank Tsao, HK Shipping Magnate:

"The key to prosperity is the capacity to survive the next downturn."


Centro's tale: how the mighty are fallen
21, 2007

Not everyone was surprised when Centro's level of debt threatened to become too much to bear.

At Centro Roselands, in western Sydney, the franchisee who runs Amore Gourmet Burger and Grill got a tip-off from his business partner about a month ago.

"He plays on the sharemarket a lot," Sam, who did not want his surname used, told the Herald this week. "He picked this a month ago. He sent us all a note saying: 'Watch out, they're going to go bad."'

And how. This week a stock that traded with a market capitalisation of $4.8 billion plunged to as low as 42c. At current prices it wiped out $3.7 billion in investors' funds.

Caught out by $2 billion in short-term loans that banks are threatening to drop like a hot potato, the trust and its chief executive, Andrew Scott, were in the middle of a financial crisis partly of their own making.

It was a spectacular firestorm surrounding a company that had built the value of its business to a portfolio of funds under management worth $26 billion, including 128 shopping centres in Australia and 682 in the US.

The advance warnings were not confined to tip-offs from savvy partners. In February the Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Rosivach warned the underlying debt level of the $6.7 billion acquisition of the US shopping centre owner New Plan Excel stood at a staggering 96 per cent. Among several complaints levelled at Scott and the company he built, there is strong condemnation of the level of disclosure displayed before its trading halt on Thursday last week and the devastating announcement on Monday.

Mark Wist, the head of research at the specialist real estate group PIR, this week criticised the "sub-optimal level of disclosure from a group whose complex structure has lost favour with the market".

He said: "From dizzying heights of $10.02 in early May … how the mighty have fallen."

...for the rest of article..

http://business.smh.com.au/centros-tale-how-the-mighty-are-fallen/20071220-1iba.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2

Interesting times we are in, on the one hand we see serious credit problem with some companies, on the other we see offices building flipped and funds buying big time. I see lots of trading opportunities ahead.

For fast reference, can go to this site.
http://reitdata.blogspot.com/
:)

Woah, it's a blog :lol:

Landed prices continues climbing..
Caveat from URA data...

THE GREENWOOD GREENWOOD LANE Terrace House 3,180,000 1,615 1,970 Dec-07

Terrace hse hitting $1970psf of land!

Landed prices continues climbing..
Caveat from URA data...

THE GREENWOOD GREENWOOD LANE Terrace House 3,180,000 1,615 1,970 Dec-07

Terrace hse hitting $1970psf of land!

Pardon my ignorance, but when I searched Greenwood Lane, The Greenwood appeared on three different plots of land. Is The Greenwood split into 3 plots separately?

Pardon my ignorance, but when I searched Greenwood Lane, The Greenwood appeared on three different plots of land. Is The Greenwood split into 3 plots separately?

The Greenwood is a big development by Far East Organisation, and built in several phases, (at least 3) and was slowly released over many years, with multiple showflats. Think they are now building the last phase near the PIE Eng Neo exit.

The Terr houses are 3+attic, land can be as small as 1700sqft, but built in close to 3900. Very well designed and fitted out. It's one of the best landed showhouses I have been to. Seems like FEO are keeping some for residential leasing. What I am surprised is the fact that this neighbourhood consistently sets the benchmark of high psf for Terr houses in Sg, despite being so deep in from the main roads.

Half of job growth this years is created in mfg and construction sectors.

Friend said cashflow from workers' dorm is so strong that banks willing to go 100% financing. But no bragging rights. Nobody will be impressed if say "I own a workers' dorm at Toh Guan".


Morgan Stanley buys workers' dorms in Singapore for
153 million sgd - report
Wednesday, December 26, 2007; Posted: 09:04 PM

Morgan Stanley recently bought three workers'
dormitories for 153 million Singapore dollars from
Singapore state-owned industrial landlord JTC Corp to
expand its real estate asset portfolio in the
city-state, the Business Times reported, citing
unnamed sources.

The newspaper said Avery Strategic Investments, an
entity linked to the US bank, has teamed up with a
local party to buy additional properties of this kind
from the private sector in search of better yields.

Being targeted are dormitories that have blue chip
companies as tenants, who are leasing space in these
facilities for their foreign workers.

There are currently over 20 other major dormitories
housing foreign workers in Singapore, the newspaper
said.

The Greenwood is a big development by Far East Organisation, and built in several phases, (at least 3) and was slowly released over many years, with multiple showflats. Think they are now building the last phase near the PIE Eng Neo exit.

The Terr houses are 3+attic, land can be as small as 1700sqft, but built in close to 3900. Very well designed and fitted out. It's one of the best landed showhouses I have been to. Seems like FEO are keeping some for residential leasing. What I am surprised is the fact that this neighbourhood consistently sets the benchmark of high psf for Terr houses in Sg, despite being so deep in from the main roads.

So Phase 1 and Phase 2 of The Greenwood is completed already? From the PIE Eng Neo exit I can only see one plot under construction so I did not expect this.

Friend said cashflow from workers' dorm is so strong that banks willing to go 100% financing. But no bragging rights. Nobody will be impressed if say "I own a workers' dorm at Toh Guan".

Wa Lao ! Property so hot until fund manager buying the lowest end of the property market !!! .......but interestingly I thought most construction companies will built their own temporary domitory at the construction sites.

Property sector to moderate next year


By Yasmine Yahya

Singapore's private homes market will enter a quieter phase in 2008, after this year's headline-grabbing growth and price hikes.

Analysts say the sector will chalk more modest gains in terms of both transaction volume and home prices, but they add activity in the mass residential market may come to life.

Property investment sales this year reached $50.78 billion, a 66 per cent increase over the historical high in 2006.

By the third quarter of the year, prices of private homes had risen to the highest level in a decade, gaining more than 20 per cent since the end of 2006.

But as Propnex CEO Muhammad Ismail explains, a slew of government measures then cooled down the market.

"The government by implementing greater transparency by giving the information to the public, coupled with other measures like removing the deferred payment scheme and development charges being introduced, has helped to remove the speculators in the market. And I think they are timely."

The property market's fervour has been further dampened by the global credit crisis, causing Credo Real Estate Executive Director Karamjit Singh to forecast a slow start to 2008.

"The mass market has not really moved to the extent that it did in the middle of the 90s, when the property market boomed. So that's something that can continue the momentum provided sentiments don't turn bearish, number one. Number two, affordability goes up. And that requires our local Singaporeans to be earning much more to be able to afford higher mortgages, because values of property have gone up."

But whether the sector will surprise analysts again next year, we'll just have to wait and see.

At least we see more bids for this site and quite high too actually..

SINGAPORE : The tender for the residential site at Alexandra Road has attracted six bids.

The top bid of S$288.38 million was submitted by a partnership between Wing Tai and United Engineers. The price works out to S$639 per square foot per plot ratio.

According to property consultants CB Richard Ellis, that works out to 31 percent above the reserve price, and more than 82% higher than the S$350 psf/plot ratio paid for the adjacent site at The Metropolitan in November 2005.

CB Richard Ellis estimates that a new condo project built on the site will have a breakeven price of S$1,000 per square foot. It expects units there to sell for between $1,100 and $1,200 per square foot.

Meanwhile, property consultant Knight Frank says the relatively high level of developers' interest and the strong bids show that developers are still bullish on the Singapore property market in 2008.

A decision on the award of the tender will be made after the bids have been evaluated.

If enough rubbish dumps going for 20% yield pa, I think Temasek also will get into the act.

Dorms super strong cashflow.

Dont think can house workers at sites. Govt wants them conc in one place for monitoring.

Wa Lao ! Property so hot until fund manager buying the lowest end of the property market !!! .......but interestingly I thought most construction companies will built their own temporary domitory at the construction sites.

Wa Lao ! Property so hot until fund manager buying the lowest end of the property market !!! .......but interestingly I thought most construction companies will built their own temporary domitory at the construction sites.

I don't know whether they are supposed to build their own temporary domitory at the construction sites, but for Citylights the workers were ferried off by bus every night I think.

I don't know whether they are supposed to build their own temporary domitory at the construction sites, but for Citylights the workers were ferried off by bus every night I think.

True to Sail as well as they ferried them somewhere at 8pm.

But for Sands IR, they had their own domitory ( a very huge one ) at the site.

True to Sail as well as they ferried them somewhere at 8pm.

But for Sands IR, they had their own domitory ( a very huge one ) at the site.

I think the plot size too small? Maybe if they built the dormitory at lets say the swimming pool, it will alter they're building process?

Sands has a HUGE plot size so they have the means to build a very big dormitory there.

次贷问题影响不大 明年楼市仍然乐观

新加坡房地产发展商公会会长钟世平说，该公会跟政府一样关注房地产市场的暴涨，不过，他提醒，过去12个月的房地产价格上涨虽然惊人，却是从一个非常低的起点向上攀爬。他相信，要缓和接下来的房地产价格，最好的方法是保持透明化，并且及时地发布供应与需求数据。

　　对于越演越烈的美国次贷问题，本报昨天分头访问的几位房地产巨头，包括城市发展（CDL）执行主席郭令明、嘉德置地（CapitaLand）总裁廖文良，以及星狮地产（Frasers Centrepoint）总裁林怡胜，都一致认为，有关局势虽然进一步恶化，但其实对新加坡楼市的影响不大，明年的前景仍然乐观。

　　钟世平昨天在新加坡房地产发展商公会（REDAS）的常年晚宴上致词时，也提到美国的次贷问题。他承认，2007年的市场情绪确实受到美国次贷问题的影响。

　　“不过，我们还是必须将这个因素，平衡地与整个频频创新高的一年来看。”

　　他表示，发展商公会自1959年成立以来，不论楼市兴旺或低迷，每年都会依照传统举办晚宴。“今年，不论以什么标准衡量，我们还是取得非常成功的一年，这从今年接近700人的出席率可见一般。”

　　昨晚在丽嘉登酒店举行的发展商公会第48届常年晚宴，邀请了贸工部长林勋强担任特别嘉宾。在场的房地产巨头除了钟世平、郭令明和林怡胜外，前新电信总裁李显扬也第一次以星狮集团新任主席身份，坐在贵宾席上，参与这场房地产界的盛会。

　　钟世平在致词时说，尽管外头的风暴不容忽视，明年的前景还是相当被看好。“油价上涨、美元走软、次贷危机，以及偶然的建筑材料供应震荡，我们都不应该掉以轻心。”

　　他认为，在综合度假胜地（IR）、F1大赛举办权等多个“引擎”的催动下，新加坡目前所处于一个前所未见的有利环境。“除开未可预见的情况，（明年）我们还是能有相当好的一个年头。”

　　嘉德置地总裁廖文良在越南接受本报访问时则表示，他相信美国次贷问题还没有全面浮现，接下来还可能有惊涛骇浪，以致市场信心进一步受到打击。尽管如此，他认为美国次贷危机对本地房地产市场的影响不大，对明年的强劲依然看好。接下来的屋价还会持续往上攀，但涨幅并不会像今年前三季般猛。

　　“美国房屋次贷危机真正在10月份才开始影响本地房地产市场。新加坡房地产市场在今年首三季里取得非常突出的表现，我们当时已卖出了很多的单位，目前手头上已没有什么可卖的，因此这一季的销售交易量相信将减少。这才是主要的原因。”

　　他认为，随着我国经济增长步伐在明年放缓，与经济挂钩的新加坡房地产市场也将进行整合，价格涨幅和交易量将比今年来得少。

　　星狮地产的林怡胜昨天接受本报的电访时也说，他相信这一场次贷风暴主要对美国和英国的冲击最大，亚洲楼市因为得到印度和中国蓬勃经济的扶持，所以没有太大影响。

　　“新加坡经过这一轮的经济重组后，又吸引到IR和F1大赛举办权，再加上移民人数不断上升，这一切都对整体楼市有利。展望明年，我相信房地产市场还是会继续维持强劲。”

　　城市发展的郭令明昨天在South Beach记者会上则说，本地市场虽然受到美国次贷问题的影响，进入“整合期”(consolidation)、市场情绪受到影响，但本地房地产市场的投资基本面还是很好的。

亚太将持续增长

　　对于2008年的房地产走势，他认为，接下来，市场关注的包括，市场从次贷问题的恢复程度，以及美国是否进入经济衰退时期。他有信心，在2008年，虽然市场应该会有“零星”的“小型风暴”，但他相信亚太区域应该会持续增长。就算是整合期，他也有信心市场能回弹，但希望房地产接下来不会直线向上回弹猛冲。

　　他指出，与96年的颠峰时期相比，中档私宅其实还落后了10％，但由于市场一直在拿过去十年房地产低迷的时期来比较，因此就觉得价格猛涨了不少。实际上，他认为，中东和美国在本区域的长期投资才刚开始进来，加上本地未来的发展（滨海湾等），海外主权基金也正在寻找地标性的建筑来投资，因此前景基本上还是乐观的。

The MarQ与卓锦豪庭 料登今年“楼王”宝座

今年7月，位于巴德申山(Paterson Hill)的The MarQ豪华共管公寓，有一间19楼的单位以3140万元成交，创下历来所有共管公寓交易金额的新高，荣登2007年新加坡“楼王”的宝座。

　　不过如果以每平方英尺计算，2007年的“楼王”则诞生于乌节弯“地王”的卓锦豪庭(Orchard Residences)。一间位于53层楼的顶层豪宅，在今年10月以每平方英尺5600元成交，刷新本地有史以来的最高住宅尺价。

　　本报根据SISVREALINK、市建局网站、报章报道，以及第一太平戴维斯(Savills)提供资料所整理出来的名单显示，这两个豪华共管公寓项目，基本上垄断了今年新加坡最昂贵的共管公寓名单。

　　2007年新加坡售价最高的十间共管公寓，SC全球的The MarQ占了七间。最“便宜”的一间，成交价也高达2460万元。

　　如果要成为本地的十大贵楼，每平方英尺售价就必须从4653元“起跳”。在这十间共管公寓中，嘉德置地和新鸿基地产联手发展的卓锦豪庭，占据了五间。

　　第一太平戴维斯行销与业务开发主管邱瑞荣说：“更好的产品素质协助推动了新加坡最昂贵共管公寓的价格更上一层楼。”

　　卓锦豪庭位于新加坡最旺的购物大街——乌节路的心脏地带，这栋能直接通往乌节地铁站的共管公寓，在地点方面是其他共管公寓所无法比拟的。为了加强公寓的奢华感觉，每一个单位的衣橱也使用了意大利家具名牌Poliform的产品，厨房用的则是德国豪华厨房品牌Poggenpohl的产品。

　　至于位于巴德申山顶端的The MarQ，距离乌节路只有5分钟车程。除了堆砌各种名牌家具外，它的主要卖点还包括，所有单位都占据一整层楼，而且拥有一个15公尺长的私人游泳池。每一单位的浴室也附有蒸气与淋浴室，单单主人卧室内的步入式衣橱(walk-in wardrobes)就有30平方英尺，即一般共管公寓的卧室那么大。

　　邱瑞荣说：“越来越多超级富豪到新加坡来买楼，也是推动新加坡豪宅价格攀上新高峰的原因之一。”

　　一些曾在媒体曝光的名人房地产交易，包括国际巨星成龙买下的百年古迹建筑物——尼路一号、盛传由澳门赌王何鸿燊买下的滨海湾超级顶层豪宅、著名日本基金经理村上世彰买下的乌节路百乐轩(BLVD)顶层豪宅，以及印裔俄罗斯商人古普塔(Sudhir Gupta)的一连串房地产交易。

　　在本地，城市发展主席郭令明、大华集团主席黄祖耀、吉宝置业主席林子安等名人的亲属，也都曾经向交易所申报购买私宅单位。

　　这相信只是冰山的一角，今年有近百个千万元豪宅成交，买家个个必定非富则贵。

　　邱瑞荣指出，新加坡的税务结构，以及相对稳定的楼价和货币波动，都是吸引越来越多超级富豪前来的原因。

　　许多外国政府都征收非常高的税，如果把钱“泊”在新加坡房地产市场，这些富豪不单能享受新加坡的低税率，也可以作为海外的一笔“防身财”，确保海外有财富可以传给下一代。最近新元兑美元走高，也让这些富豪意外地发了一笔外汇财。

明年料被超越

　　展望2008年，邱瑞荣相信The MarQ和卓锦豪庭的这两个“楼王”将被超越。

　　他在上个月曾经再次预测，明年的超级豪华私宅价格有望上试每平方英尺6000元的新高点。

　　去年11月，他曾经大胆预测，新加坡豪宅价格会在2010年创下每平方英尺4500元的新高。当时的最高公寓价格纪录只有每平方英尺3000元。结果，豪宅价格在2007年已经创下每平方英尺5600元的新高。

　　邱瑞荣昨天指出，明年将上市的超级豪华共管公寓，包括了SC全球的The Ardmore地段、杨忠礼(YTL)集团的良园(Westwood Apartments)地段、Hayden Properties的史各士路37号项目、郭氏家族控制的邦典集团(Pontiac)所拥有的彬珠阁(Pin Tjoe Court)地段。

　　这些项目大多没有透露过发展详情，不过，从它们的超高土地价格和发展商的高档背景看来，应该有望角逐2008年代的“楼王”地位。

　　以史各士路37号来说，卖点就是一台汽车也可以乘搭的玻璃电梯，让屋主可以把心爱的名贵轿车直接停泊在公寓门口。

　　另外一个有机会夺下2008年新“楼王”桂冠的共管公寓，是SC全球的经禧路Hilltops公寓。该项目有一间1万1000平方英尺的超级顶层豪宅。这个项目已经在10月开始预售，每平方英尺成交价格超过4000元。假设这间拥有6间卧室和一台专属私人电梯的顶层豪宅，以相同水平成交，总成交金额已高达4400万元。

今年房地产拍卖总额　创2000年以来新高

尽管以拍卖方式出售的房地产逐年下降，但以交易额来说，今年的总拍卖所得却创下自2000年以来的新高，总拍卖所得超过4亿元。

　　不过，市场人士相信，在高档房地产价格需求下降，涨幅减缓下，本地房地产拍卖的总交易额已见顶。到了明年，公开拍卖的高档房地产将减少，使总拍卖所得往下滑。

　　根据高力国际(Colliers)昨天发表的最新数据，今年公开拍卖的房地产总数为1456个，比去年的2018个少了28%，但总交易额却达到4亿零743万元，只比1999年的4亿零946万元历史高峰稍微低了一些。

　　另外，据莱坊(Knight Frank)新发表的数据，今年公开拍卖的房地产总数比去年少了56%，从1814个房地产减少至1294个，但总交易额却比去年高出32%，达4亿2200万元左右。两家房地产咨询有所不同是因为使用的计算法有异。

　　高力的数据也显示，由业主注册拍卖的房地产数额达到810个，创下10年来新高。许多业主选择拍卖方式是为了衡量它们位于黄金地区房产的价格。

抵押逼卖项目猛跌55%

　　反之，在房地产市场蓬勃，拖欠贷款的人减少的背景下，抵押逼卖项目猛跌了55%，从去年的1418个房地产，下降至今年的646个。

　　高力国际执行董事兼拍卖师黄黎明在接受本报访问时指出，今年的交易额能创下8年来新高是由于在上半年有更多屋主选择以拍卖的方式，来脱售其具有集体出售潜力的高档私人公寓或旧私宅单位。被看好可能集体出售的华登岭公寓(Watten Estate Condominium)和凯秀岭(Cashew Heights)等的公寓单位都非常抢手。

　　此外，发展商去年在见证了升涛湾(Sentosa Cove)成功以拍卖方式协助发展商为其面海的独立式洋房地段设定每平方英尺1039元的参考价(benchmark price)后，更多发展商在今年有样学样，通过国际拍卖行将黄金地段项目的顶层单位售出。

　　靠近植物园，拥有34个单位的BOTANIKA，其中12个单位在今年4月中旬以拍卖方式出售。发展商传慎控股(Tuan Sing Holdings)聘用了高力国际、国际著名豪宅拍卖行Christie's Great Estates，以及国际知名拍卖家Ken Jacobs联手主持拍卖会。据了解，这是本地首次有发展商通过国际拍卖行出售在本岛上的新项目。

　　之后，位于黄金乌节购物区的Boulevard Residence、Leonie Parc View和Lumos等新高档私宅项目的一些顶层豪宅单位也以拍卖的方式出售。

　　黄黎明说：“今年的拍卖大厅比往年来得热闹许多。过去，拍卖反应较理想的房地产一般会有约两个竞标者。今年，一些抢手的房地产能吸引了约10至20名竞标者，是历年来反应最好的一年。”

　　她也透露，当有集体出售拍卖时，竞价者会突然增加，出席的人从平时的100人增加到200人之多，把拍卖大厅挤得水泄不通。

　　“许多业主希望通过拍卖的方式，为自己的房地产取得最高的售价。这个现象尤其在有集体出售潜能的项目中相当常见。”

　　除了私人公寓项目，莱坊拍卖部执行董事蔡竺樾补偿说，今年进入拍卖市场的优质独立洋房(Good Class Bun- galow)和受保留建筑也大受欢迎。

　　位于黄金地段月眠路(Goodman Road)、荷兰路和瑞士俱乐部路的三个优质洋房都在拍卖里成功以800万元以上的价格出售。

　　翡翠山(Emerald Hill)、经禧路(Cairnhill Road)和史波蒂斯兀园路(Spottiswoode Park)一带的受保留建筑则分别以420万元、720万元和136万元拍卖出。

　　不单由房地产公司和拍卖行经手的房地产获得热烈反应外，土地管理局上个月底举行的拍卖会也大受市场欢迎。该局推出拍卖的六幅供建造私人洋房的官地，总共获得超过120人登记竞夺。最受欢迎的是松美路(Somme Road)地段，还经过64回一来一往的喊价，最终才由Sarda公司夺得。

　　展望明年，黄黎明和蔡竺樾都表示高档房地产的拍卖预料将减少，但随着大众化私宅在明年，大众化和中档私宅单位的拍卖数目将增加。

　　蔡竺樾说：“今年下半年爆发美国次贷危机大大影响了拍卖市场，下半年成交的房地产数目比上半年少了超过一半。到了明年，高档房地产的拍卖活动相信将在环球股市紧张气氛下继续减少，但如果本地经济增长保持强劲，大众化私宅的拍卖活动将增加，并可部分抵销高档房地产需求下跌的影响。”

　　黄黎明则看好价值100万元以下的大众化私宅将在拍卖厂上大受欢迎，拥有良好收益的商用和零售房地产的竞标也将相当激烈。

Singapore Property Market Report 2007 (Taken from Asia Property report):

Boasting a strong economy and a high-quality of living, Singapore real estate commands some of the highest prices in Asia. Comprised of high-end condos and luxury housing, the city-state’s residential property market is partially fueled by a high-expatriate population, with serviced apartments in high supply.

Optimism in the residential property market reached new heights in 2006, with a continuous stream of new projects coming on the market to receive overwhelming sales success – a situation unheard of since the market crash of 1997.

Overall, Singapore is in a good position right now, due in part to the government’s commitment to promote sustainable investor activity.

The luxury end of the Singapore property market is taking off. According to DTZ Debenham Tie Leung, the number of transactions of condos and apartments in the top two segments - units costing S$1 million to S$1.4 million and units priced above S$1.4 million - posted respective quarter-on-quarter increases of 40 per cent and 54 per cent respectively in the second quarter of 2006.

Singapore’s high-end property market really began its resurgence in late 2004 with the launch of The Sail @ Marina Bay. Other luxury condominiums followed suit, including City Developments' ultra-luxurious St Regis Residences near Orchard road.

There are several factors that are contributing to the success of Singapore’s high-end residential market:a prosperous local economy, the nation's position as the region's wealth management hub, and a relaxation of rules on property ownership for foreign buyers.

The recent rise in the luxury market has been powered mainly by interest from foreign buyers. Overseas buyers do not require government approval now to buy certain landed properties in Sentosa Cove and apartments in buildings with fewer than six storeys. Other properties may be available for sale to an investor but they have to seek the permission of the Singapore Land Authority first.

The majority of foreign buyers are from neighbouring Indonesia and Malaysia, although Singapore is increasingly attracting a diverse group of international buyers, including from Hong Kong and the mainland.

There are several prime neighbourhoods attracting the most interest from high-end investors. These include the area around Orchard Road, Marina Bay and the up-and-coming Sentosa Cove.

The area surrounding the upscale shopping district of Orchard Road is expected to be a mecca of property development for the next few years.

Marina Bay and Sentosa Cove are located very close each other. Many buyers are attracted to the new lifestyle offered at Sentosa Cove, which will have a luxury marina. Marina Bay Residences is attracting a lot of attention as well. Part of the Marina Bay Financial Centre, it is now under development on the waterfront of the new downtown area.

2007 The worlds housing markets in review (part 1)

In 2007, the US housing market crashed, and Europe’s housing markets slowed. But house prices in Asia-Pacific gained momentum.

Bulgaria saw the world’s strongest house price growth at 30.6% (15.4% in real terms) to end-Q3 2007 from a year earlier.

Shanghai’s red hot housing market continued to rebound, despite efforts by the government to cool the market. House prices rose by 27.85% to end-Oct 2007 from a year earlier; a significant turnaround from 0.6% drop in 2006.

Singapore registered an annual house price increase of 27.6% (24% in real terms) to end-Q3 2007, significantly higher than the 7.6% price increase over the same period in 2006. In real terms, Singapore was the world’s best-performing housing market, given inflation of only 2.66%.

House prices rose by more than 10% year on year (y-o-y) in nominal terms in several developing countries - the Philippines, Colombia, South Africa, and Hong Kong. However, when adjusted for inflation, price increases were generally substantially lower.

In Europe most countries registered unimpressive y-o-y house price changes in 2007, aside from Norway and Estonia.

Property prices in Ireland started falling in 2007, the first time in more than 15 years. The Irish housing market had the biggest and longest house price boom among developed countries in recent memory.

Urban land prices in Japan’s six largest cities rose by 7.75% during the first half of 2007. Although Japan’s national urban land price index fell by 1.48% during 1H 2007, this is an improvement from the 2.8% price fall in 2006. The Japanese urban land price index is generally believed to lag reality, so significant recovery is taking place in the Japanese housing market.

Interest rates

The recent house price slowdown in Europe and the US is mainly due to higher interest rates.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest eight times in 15 months. The repo rate was raised to its current level of 4% in June 2007 from its historic low of 2% in Nov 2006.


In the US, the Federal Reserve Bank raised its key lending rate 17 times in 24 months during 2004-2006. The US Federal Funds rate rose sharply from its historic low of 1% in May 2004 to 5.25% in June 2006.

As signs of strain on the housing market started to appear in mid-2006, the Fed kept its key rate at 5.25% for 14 months to Aug 2007.

When the US housing market boom turning to a bust, the Fed slashed key rates in September by 50 basis points and in October and December by 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 4.25%.

The central banks of UK and Canada reduced key lending rates by 25 points in December 2007.

Some would say the Fed raised rates “too much, too soon,” and is now frantically reducing key rates to avoid recession. Others however suggest that weak oversight of US mortgage market lending is the primary cause of the present crisis, in combination with a structural shift toward off-balance sheet lending.

The ECB’s stubbornly slow rate adjustments, in contrast, have allowed the Eurozone’s diverse housing markets to adjust relatively smoothly. Only the most overpriced housing market, Ireland, has actually crashed, while the rest are mostly slowing.

USA & CANADA

The US housing market continues to weaken.

US home prices dropped 5% y-o-y to October 2007, to an average of US$207,800, based on sales recorded by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) (or 8.46% in real terms).

The Office of the Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), which produces an arguably more widely-based index, saw prices rising 1.8% to end Q3 2007 from a year earlier, which translates to a fall of 0.6% when adjusted for inflation. 10 states in the OFHEO index experienced price falls, including Michigan (3.7%), California (3.6%), Nevada (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Rhode Island (2.2% and Florida (2.1%). Only two states registered house price growth of more than 10% y-o-y to end Q3 2007, Utah (12.9%) and Wyoming (11.8%).

Canada’s housing markets are also showing signs of slowing. The new housing price index rose 6.1% to end-Oct 2007 from a year earlier (3.7% in real terms), lower than the 11.4% (10.3% in real terms) y-o-y price rise to Oct 2006.

Europe

Most European housing markets slowed. Ireland’s house price plunge continued, with a 4.68% y-o-y drop to October 2007. When adjusted for inflation, the drop is more pronounced at 9.1%. The Irish housing market is vulnerable to interest rate changes, as 85% of mortgages are variable rate.

The Baltics performed quite well in terms of house price changes from a year earlier, but the latest quarterly data presents a picture of a region whose housing markets are in trouble.

In Latvia apartment prices have dropped by 7.7% to September 2007, over a quarter earlier. Lithuania’s apartment prices have stagnated at LTL 12,500 (US$5,213 or €3,620) per sq. m. in the last two quarters. In Estonia quarterly house prices increased by 23.4% y-o-y to Q3 2007, lower than the 28.6% growth to end-2006.

Norway’s housing markets are showing signs of nervousness, despite a strong performance this year. The house price index for the entire country increased 11.6% y-o-y to Q3 2007 (11.9% in real terms due to slight deflation). However, prices in the metropolitan area of Oslo-Baerum fell 0.5% from Q2 to Q3 2007. The housing market is facing more uncertainties as the Norges Bank raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% in December 2007.

Spain recorded 5.31% y-o-y house price growth to Q3 2007, the lowest rate of increase in nine years. Higher interest rates have dampened demand, and banks have become very careful in granting housing loans.

A slow down was also evident in the UK, though less sharp than expected. British house prices increased 9.7% y-o-y to Q3 2007, less than 2006’s y-o-y increase of 10.5%. When adjusted for inflation, the house price increase in Q3 2007 was 7.5%, slightly higher than the 7.3% rise in 2006.

House prices in Italy and Greece have also cooled. Mortgages in these markets are predominantly based on variable interest rates.

Although mortgages in Denmark, France and Germany are mostly based on fixed interest rates, their housing markets have nevertheless cooled. Other European countries which experienced house price slow downs are Sweden, Poland, Finland, Netherlandsand Switzerland. France has increased tax deductions on mortgage-loan interest rates, a measure expected to hold housing demand firm.

2007 The worlds housing markets in review (part 2)

Asia

Housing markets in several Asian countries gained momentum during the first three quarters of 2007, reflecting to some extent continued recovery from the 1997 Asian Crisis.

The strong house price increases in Singapore, South Korea, and Japan have been mainly due to strong economic growth. Mortgage markets in Asia are generally underdeveloped. Hence the effect of interest rate movements on the housing market is indirect, channeled through over-all economic performance. With electronic goods as the main export of these countries, economic growth is expected to drop if the global economic recession occurs in 2008.

In the Philippines, demand for houses and condominiums has come mainly from families of Overseas Filipinos.

Price increases in China are subject to strong government intervention. Left unhampered, property prices would be expected to rise due to continued economic expansion and rapid urbanization. Adding fuel to the price boom are the Beijing Olympics in 2008 and World Expo in 2010 in Shanghai.

In Thailand, political problems have led to weak economic growth and falling property prices. Property price changes in Indonesia and Malaysia remain unimpressive. Although the national house price index in Indonesia was up 5.2% in nominal terms to end Q-3 2007, the index actually dipped by 1.2% in when adjusted to inflation. In Malaysia, the house price index rose 3.2% (1.7% in real terms) to Q2-2007 from a year earlier.

Pacific

Property prices in Australia continue to recover from the housing market slowdown during 2004 to 2005. The house price index for eight capital cities rose by 10.6% to Sept 2007 from a year earlier, slightly higher than the 10.1% annual increase in Sept 2006. Except for Sydney and Perth, Australia’s other major cities all registered house price increases of more than 11% y-o-y to Sept 2007.

The availability of housing finance combined with lack of supply fueled house price increases in 2007, despite rising interest rates. Population growth from immigration and the skills shortage in the construction sector also contributed to higher prices.

Double-digit house price increases are expected to persist in 2008 in Australia.

No drastic changes in immigration policy are expected, now that the Labor Party is in power, and new schemes to assist low income renters and house buyers are likely to increase demand for housing units.

Signs that New Zealand’s house price boom is coming to an end appeared in the second half of 2007. Although the national median house price rose 6.6% y-o-y to NZ$352,000 in Nov 2007, this was the lowest annual house price increase since Feb 2003.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has raised its benchmark interest rate four times between March and July 2007 to 8.25%. The market downturn is expected to continue in 2008, and is expected to last until 2009.

Middle East and Africa

The depreciation of the US dollar against major currencies could be beneficial for the Middle East’s property markets. As the currencies of Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) are pegged to the US dollar, their property markets are getting cheaper as the US dollar depreciates – while everyone expects their currencies eventually to be revalued against the US dollar.

The biggest concern is oversupply. Dubai is swamped with new properties to be delivered in 2008 and 2009. A slump in demand from international buyers due to a global economic slowdown could exacerbate the problem. The speculative nature of its housing market makes Dubai highly susceptible.

In South Africa, the house price boom is coming to a halt. Annual house price growth peaked at 33% to end-2004. Since then, house price growth started decelerating, and was down to 13.6% y-o-y to end-Oct 2007. Adjusted for inflation, the house price index rose by only 5.3%. The slowdown was due to higher interest rates, lower economic growth, and to The National Credit Act, implemented June 2007, which imposed stricter rules on lending.

Israel’smarket is showing signs of recovery. The average price of owner-occupied dwellings rose 4.6% (2.5% in real terms) to Q3 2007 from the previous quarter. However, it is still 0.5% (1.9% in real terms) lower than its level in Q3 2006.

THE GLOBAL PROPERTY GUIDE’S FORECASTS FOR 2008:

Europe

Buying housing in much of Europe should be avoided in 2008, because housing is relatively highly valued, having seen a long period of price appreciation (graphs here). The Baltics has been rising for a long time as a result of strong economic growth, but rental yields have fallen strongly - avoid.

Some areas of Eastern Europe are still good value, however. Just because Eastern European housing markets have been booming for a long time, does not necessarily mean that the boom is over.

In Bulgaria, Sofia has attractive yields despite the absurd over-hyping of areas such as the ski resorts. In Romania, Bucharest is still attractive, with good yields. In Slovakia, Bratislava remains attractive and undervalued, as are other areas of the country. Budapest’s housing market is recovering, and we think it is sustained by low price-rent ratios. Turkey, Greece and other coastal areas in Southern Europe are still undervalued.

Middle East & Africa

Investors should avoid Dubai, because of the overhang of property due for delivery in 2008 and 2009, except possibly detached houses. The newly-opening Gulf countries such as Abu Dhabi and Oman could eventually produce good returns.

We believe Egypt is attractive. We are much less interested in beach resorts (its too hot on the West coast of the Red Sea in summer!) than in Cairo, where prices are low by regional standards, gross rental yields are among the highest in the world, taxes are low, and transaction costs are reasonable. The downside? An increasingly repressive and unpopular regime.

We also like Jordan. Despite strong price rises pushed by Iraqi refugees and Gulf money, rental yields in Amman are still spectacular, and taxes are low. Amman is not the most exciting place, but under the liberal economic regime of King Abdullah, GDP growth has been quite good at 4% a year over the past 5 years.

South Africa is rapidly cooling, after more than five years of double digit house price increases. The housing market is likely to be dampened by political uncertainty associated with the 2009 election, given the pro-redistribution rhetoric of front-runner Jacob Zuma.

Asia-Pacific

Property prices in much of Asia are still undervalued compared to pre-Asian crisis levels, despite strong increases in 2007.

China is unfortunately not open to investment, and non-resident foreign buyers of dwellings are no longer welcome (though developers still are). While Beijing’s property prices will probably peak in 2008 after the Olympics, Shanghai is still preparing for the World Expo in 2010. With yields at 8% Shanghai’s prices have nowhere to go but up, unless the government intensifies its intervention.

Cambodia could be a proxy for China. Strongly tied to the Chinese economy, Cambodia is open, has high yields, relatively low transaction costs and low taxes, though investors must be prepared for only an indirect acquisition of land due to constitutional limitations on foreign purchases.

The resolution of Thailand’s political crisis in 2008 could open opportunities, after two dismal years. Gross rental yields are good at 7%-8%, income taxes are relatively high but acceptable (compared to the Philippines), the market is pro-landlord. Under better management Thailand could do very well. Indonesia is attractive, but has problems as an investment destination - there are high yields in Jakarta, but very high transaction costs and high rental income taxes. The Philippines too has high yields, but similarly discouragingly high transaction costs and high rental income taxes.

Japan’s housing market is recovering strongly. While Tokyo’s gross rental yields are unattractive at around 4.7%, the price momentum is positive, the law is strongly pro-landlord, there are low-ish transaction costs, and low rental income tax. The recently announced tighter regulation of new dwellings could lead to faster property price appreciation.

In Singapore we believe gross rental yields are now too low, at 2% to 3%. Nevertheless, Singapore is attracting (and admitting) more foreign-born workers – which is positive for prices. Hong Kong’s yields are somewhat higher (around 3% to 5%), and the US$ peg will mean Hong Kong will follow lower US$ interest rates, which should boost the housing market.

In Australia, we expect house price increases to persist in 2008. No drastic changes in immigration policy are expected, and new schemes to assist low income categories will likely increase housing demand. In New Zealand, we expect the market pause to continue.

Latin America and Caribbean

Much of the Caribbean seems overvalued and likely to be affected by any slowdown in leading US sectors, such as the banking industry.

We are keenest on the Bahamas, despite high transaction costs. Gross rental yields in the Bahamas are quite good, at around 5.5% to 7%. The law is pro-landlord. There are no taxes. Square metre prices are reasonable by Caribbean standards, at around US$4,000 per sq. m. – a snip for sterling or Euro buyers. The downside is very high transaction costs, consisting of stamp duty and estate agents’ fees.

Our top picks for Latin America are Argentina (Buenos Aires still has excellent yields, and the economy is growing strongly), Uruguay (piggy-backing on Argentina as usual), and Colombia, which we believe is recovering politically and will soon be attractive to US buyers. Countries in the ‘second home’ diaspora of the US will remain attractive, as they are significantly less expensive than the Caribbean.

Singapore Property Market Report 2007 (Taken from Asia Property report):

Boasting a strong economy and a high-quality of living, Singapore real estate commands some of the highest prices in Asia. Comprised of high-end condos and luxury housing, the city-state’s residential property market is partially fueled by a high-expatriate population, with serviced apartments in high supply.

Optimism in the residential property market reached new heights in 2006, with a continuous stream of new projects coming on the market to receive overwhelming sales success – a situation unheard of since the market crash of 1997.

Overall, Singapore is in a good position right now, due in part to the government’s commitment to promote sustainable investor activity.

The luxury end of the Singapore property market is taking off. According to DTZ Debenham Tie Leung, the number of transactions of condos and apartments in the top two segments - units costing S$1 million to S$1.4 million and units priced above S$1.4 million - posted respective quarter-on-quarter increases of 40 per cent and 54 per cent respectively in the second quarter of 2006.

Singapore’s high-end property market really began its resurgence in late 2004 with the launch of The Sail @ Marina Bay. Other luxury condominiums followed suit, including City Developments' ultra-luxurious St Regis Residences near Orchard road.

There are several factors that are contributing to the success of Singapore’s high-end residential market:a prosperous local economy, the nation's position as the region's wealth management hub, and a relaxation of rules on property ownership for foreign buyers.

The recent rise in the luxury market has been powered mainly by interest from foreign buyers. Overseas buyers do not require government approval now to buy certain landed properties in Sentosa Cove and apartments in buildings with fewer than six storeys. Other properties may be available for sale to an investor but they have to seek the permission of the Singapore Land Authority first.

The majority of foreign buyers are from neighbouring Indonesia and Malaysia, although Singapore is increasingly attracting a diverse group of international buyers, including from Hong Kong and the mainland.

There are several prime neighbourhoods attracting the most interest from high-end investors. These include the area around Orchard Road, Marina Bay and the up-and-coming Sentosa Cove.

The area surrounding the upscale shopping district of Orchard Road is expected to be a mecca of property development for the next few years.

Marina Bay and Sentosa Cove are located very close each other. Many buyers are attracted to the new lifestyle offered at Sentosa Cove, which will have a luxury marina. Marina Bay Residences is attracting a lot of attention as well. Part of the Marina Bay Financial Centre, it is now under development on the waterfront of the new downtown area.

So The Sail was the one that jump started the luxury housing manga!

Personally, I think that the upcoming URA report should see the index moving up much higher. Anyone knows how this index is calculated and what is the weightage? From what I see the high-end, east side project have hit and breached the previous peak and yet the URA index is still at ard 150-160. To me, that can only mean that when the mass market starts to move, the index will move in a big way. A move of $500 psf to $800 psf is 60% increase, while a $2500 to $3000 move is only a 20% increase. Even if high end, doesn't move much, the index can also spike up.

Amazing..over the past 2-3 years, I have seen a lot of condos up 80% to 120% from their bottom while this is URA index is up 50% from bottom Now I really dunno how this index is compiled :lol:

SINGAPORE - Singapore private home prices rose at a slower quarterly pace of 6.6 per cent in the last three months of 2007, according to government figures released on Wednesday.
Authorities recently raised development charges to make it more expensive for companies to buy out existing condominiums for redevelopment into larger apartment blocks with more units.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority's price index for private residential property rose 6.6 per cent in the final three months of 2007, slowing from the 8.3 per cent rise in July-September.

In the whole of 2007, private home prices rose 31 per cent.

The Singapore government said in October that developers could no longer sell uncompleted property on a deferred payment scheme in a bid to reduce speculation in the real estate market.

Other recent measures taken by authorities include raising development charges to make it more expensive for companies such as CapitaLand and City Developments to buy out existing condominiums for redevelopment into larger apartment blocks with more units.

A separate index compiled by the Housing Development Board showed resale prices of government-built HDB apartments rose 5.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, slower than the 6.6 per cent quarterly gain in July-September. -- REUTERS

CNA: Government will continue to monitor residential property market

SINGAPORE: The government will continue to monitor the residential property market in a bid to ensure that prices remain stable, according to National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan.

He was responding to questions from reporters on Wednesday for his outlook for the property sector in 2008.

He noted that the government had taken measures last year to cool the sector, but also said that there are external factors at play in 2008.

Mr Mah said: "It's not my job, neither is it my ability to predict prices. All I can say is that we monitor the price situation very carefully and over the past months, the government has taken several steps to try to cool down the strong speculative fervour that was taking place earlier in the year. Those are the internal factors.

"As you know, there are also many external factors that could affect property prices. Those are external factors which are beyond our control, so we don't really know how the sub-prime crisis is going to pan out. We don't know what's going to happen to the American economy this year.

"What we do know is for Singapore and we are optimistic that we will continue to do well. It's up to us to keep a close eye on the market to ensure prices remain stable and move in tandem with the economy."

CNA: Private residential prices up 6.6% in fourth quarter

SINGAPORE: Private residential property prices rose by a slower pace in the fourth quarter - up 6.6 per cent compared with the previous three months.

Meanwhile resale prices for public housing or Housing and Development Board flats grew by 5.6 per cent in the fourth quarter.

That's also at a slower pace, down from 6.6 per cent in the previous quarter.

Analysts believed this was due to the uncertainty over the economic outlook and the government's measures to cool the property market.

Prices of private residential properties continued to climb in the final quarter of last year, but at a slower rate and analysts said this was not totally unexpected.

Nicholas Mak, Director of Knight Frank, said: "The figures are quite in line with our expectations - we expect prices to continue to expand but at a slower pace - this is because 2007, the private home prices (rose) at a very fast rate and we think that this is not sustainable.”

He added: “Going forward 2008 and 2009 we expect (that it) will continue to expand but at a slower and more sustainable growth."

Prices rose by about 7 per cent across the board, but it is those outside the core central region that's taking the lead, with a 7.5 per cent climb.

This includes areas such as Bukit Batok and East Coast.

The core central region saw seven per cent growth, rest of central region was 7.3 per cent, and outside Core Central Region 7.5 per cent.

Analysts said this trend of rising prices in outlying areas is likely to continue into 2008.

Donald Han, Managing Director of Cushman and Wakefield, said: “Well I think if you look at the statistics itself, most of the price increase that we have been seeing is from outside of the central region as well as the fringe area which dominated in the price increase over the last six to 12 months.”

He added: “On top of that I think we are also seeing some re-investment money coming from those who are affected by the collective en bloc - looking into downsizing - looking at outlying areas in terms of affordability."

Private residential home prices rose by 31 per cent in 2007.

Meanwhile, HDB resale prices grew by 5.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, taking the total climb for the year to 17.4 per cent. -CNA/vm

Amazing..over the past 2-3 years, I have seen a lot of condos up 80% to 120% from their bottom while this is URA index is up 50% from bottom Now I really dunno how this index is compiled :lol:

SINGAPORE - Singapore private home prices rose at a slower quarterly pace of 6.6 per cent in the last three months of 2007, according to government figures released on Wednesday.
Authorities recently raised development charges to make it more expensive for companies to buy out existing condominiums for redevelopment into larger apartment blocks with more units.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority's price index for private residential property rose 6.6 per cent in the final three months of 2007, slowing from the 8.3 per cent rise in July-September.

In the whole of 2007, private home prices rose 31 per cent.

The Singapore government said in October that developers could no longer sell uncompleted property on a deferred payment scheme in a bid to reduce speculation in the real estate market.

Other recent measures taken by authorities include raising development charges to make it more expensive for companies such as CapitaLand and City Developments to buy out existing condominiums for redevelopment into larger apartment blocks with more units.

A separate index compiled by the Housing Development Board showed resale prices of government-built HDB apartments rose 5.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, slower than the 6.6 per cent quarterly gain in July-September. -- REUTERS


I think the Sub - urban is up by more than 30% from June 2007 - Dec 2007, the URA decision to show a 7.5 % gain may be good news to sub-urban home owner. It show more room to grow.:lol:

I hope Sub-urban grow another 10% next year and all owners can make more money.:lol:

CLSA Singapore - PROPERTY 3 Jan 08

Slowdown

Yew Kiang Wong

Despite a 6.6% QoQ and 31% YoY increase in Urban Redevelopment Authority's private residential price index, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of growth, there was a 170bps deceleration (6.6% in 4Q07 down from 8.3% in 3Q07) for the first time since 2Q04. Reiterating the downside risks in mid- to high-end residential prices, we prefer the Reits over developers in the sector.

Most resilience in the outside central region


Growth deceleration in central regions. A similar picture is emerging for the central region price indices. All three regions (core central, rest of central and outside central) saw price growth decelerate to 7-7.5%. Unsurprisingly, the core central region registered the most significant slowdown of 130bps (7% in 4Q07 from 8.3% in 3Q07). Mirroring the ongoing relocation trend to the fringe areas, there was a more muted decline of 40bps for the outside central region (7.5% vs 7.9%).

Effect of scrapping of deferred payment scheme. The overall slowdown in growth also underscores the effect of the cooling measures by the government, which included scrapping the deferred payment scheme effective from October 2007. Residential take-up rates have also trended down with the move by several developers to defer some high-end launches, including the Latitude by CapitaLand (CAPL SP - S$6.25 - O-PF), amid softer sentiment in the residential market.

First quarter of deceleration since 2Q04

Private residential price index (4Q98 = 100)


1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07

Price index
136.5
147.8
160
170.5

QoQ growth (%)
4.8
8.3
8.3
6.6

YoY growth (%)
13.8
21
27.6
31


Source: Urban Redevelopment Authority



Prefer Reits over developers. The estimates are in line with our residential price outlook that the mid- to high-end segment will witness a slowdown due to the enbloc impact (see our A chip off the enbloc report of October 2007), which has the potential to release 12,300 units back into the central region alone over 2008.

At the same time, this will also result in an outward migration trend into the fringe areas and firmer price support in the mass-market segment, which explains the more resilient growth for the outside central region QoQ. As of 3Q07, the supply of private residential units stands at 65,400, of which 41,600 will be completed over the next two years. Excluding the potential supply from the GLS program, more than 58% (38,000 units) of total supply has not been sold. We remain Underweight on developers and see more value in the Reits.

Thinking abt property mkts. Does property mkts discount news like stock mkts?

Meaning those news already known have no impact on prices? If prop mkts discount news, then IR/F1 etc will not have much impact?

And did F1 in KL lead to higher prices?

Anyone got any thots on these things?

Manhattan bucks homes trend with prices going through the roof
Reuters
New York, New York, United States
Thursday, 3 January 2008
http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/image/20080103/ST_IMAGES_MAN04.jpg
ALL-TIME HIGH: A Halstead Property employee showing potential buyers the floor plan of a condo in Manhattan, where foreign buyers have been pushing up demand as supply stayed tight, sending average prices to record peaks. -- PHOTO: BLOOMBERG NEWS

The United States housing market may be a seller's nightmare but Manhattan's was a dream in the fourth quarter as foreign buyers pushed up demand while supply stayed tight, sending the average sales price to a record high.

Two swanky condominium projects, The Plaza and 15 Central Park West, helped propel the average price of a Manhattan apartment to a record US$1.44 million (S$2.1 million), up 17.6% from a year earlier and 5.1% from the third quarter, according to Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview.

'Foreign demand has been a big part of the story,' said Mr Jonathan Miller, director of research at Radar Logic and author of Prudential's quarterly overview reports, but foreigners are not permitted to buy cooperatives.

'In a lot of new development, we've seen significant activity from domestic purchasers as well,' Mr Miller added.

The average price of US$1,180 psf set a record, up 18.2% from a year earlier and 3.1% from the prior quarter, according to the Prudential report.

The median price - the midway point between the highest and lowest sales prices - rose to US$850,000, up 6.4% from a year earlier, according to the Prudential report.

The average sales price of a US home declined last year.

Prospective buyers in many US markets have found prices still too high, and stiffer mortgage requirements arising from the sub-prime crisis have also sidelined them.

The overall market suffers from a 10.3-month overhang of supply of homes for sale. But supply shrank in Manhattan.

The number of apartments for sale fell by 13.5% to 5,133, according to the Prudential report, while the number of sales rose 3.2% to 2,518 units.

According to Terra Holdings, sales prices at The Plaza, a former luxury hotel, and 15 Central Park West averaged nearly US$7 million in the fourth quarter, helping to fuel a 51% increase in the average price of a Manhattan condominium.

Stripping out The Plaza and 15 Central Park West, the average selling price would have been US$1.37 million, a 12% rise over the 2006 fourth quarter's US$1.22 million, said Terra, the parent company of residential brokerages Halstead Property and Brown Harris Stevens.

Prices for condominiums, which usually make up half of new sales, rose 51% in the fourth quarter to a record US$1.85 million according to Terra.

The average sales price of a cooperative apartment rose by 21% to a record US$1.07 million in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.

The average sales price for all Manhattan apartments rose by 34% to a record US$1.43 million in the fourth quarter, while the median price was up 14% at a record US$828,000, according to Terra.

Figures from the Terra and Prudential reports differ because of the different times at which the organisations receive notice and prices of closed sales.

Terra's Mr Gregory Heym said the Manhattan apartment market had not yet felt downward pressure from cuts in bonuses on Wall Street, where jobs are on the line as big investment banks take huge write-downs due to the sub-prime crisis.

'Somebody who's worried about his bonus is going to be hesitant to buy,' Mr Heym said. 'Somebody who's worried about losing his job is going to be incredibly hesitant to buy.'

But any real estate effect probably will not show up until the second half of the year, he said.

"The average price of US$1,180 psf set a record, up 18.2% from a year earlier and 3.1% from the prior quarter, according to the Prudential report.
"

Thats SGD 1652 psf. What can $1.7k psf get you in SG?

Thinking abt property mkts. Does property mkts discount news like stock mkts?

Meaning those news already known have no impact on prices? If prop mkts discount news, then IR/F1 etc will not have much impact?

And did F1 in KL lead to higher prices?

Anyone got any thots on these things?

Always think about all this.

I think that it is situational. Even in stock mkts, news may not be discounted, gotta analyse how it moves before the announcements. 1 year back a lot of pple were saying, subprime no problem, cause news already out discounted. Mkt crack, credit tighten, some pple still saying problem discounted.

For property mkt, is also the same. Case of not discounting. A few years back, i remember, when the NE line jus started, suddenly u hear more enquiries for the flats there. When the line is operational, then pple wanna buy the flats. Even though the line is already done. I guess when its operational, u can get to enjoy the facilities immediately, then pple who stay may wanna buy. However, for enblocs, i think a lot has been discounted, and infact overdone.

Personally, I think no such thing as simple as discounting news. There will always be over or under-reaction. At the end of the day, gotta look at the situation surrounding the present situation.

personal opinion only.:)

BT : Circle Line key to higher plot ratios: JLL

Circle Line key to higher plot ratios: JLL

Study looks at how Master Plan 2008 could change landscape, usher in new initiatives

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) When Master Plan 2008 is unveiled sometime this year, certain areas are likely to see an increase in plot ratios. A study by Jones Lang LaSalle has tried to zero in on which areas could be allowed more intensive use of land.

Its conclusion: Look out for undeveloped state sites within walking distance of Circle Line MRT stations, particularly those that intersect with existing MRT lines. They are the top candidates for higher plot ratios.

The property consulting group specifically highlighted the areas near Paya Lebar MRT Station, Buona Vista MRT Station (which will see the Circle Line intersecting with the existing East-West Line) and HarbourFront MRT Station (Circle Line crosses North-East Line). Also, while Buona Vista is shaping into an R&D/commercial hub, the HarbourFront district's redevelopment potential is increasing because of projects in Sentosa and Keppel Bay nearby.

Another promising area is in the vicinity of the Circle Line Station at Telok Blangah. Although it does not intersect with an existing MRT line, it will benefit from a spillover from the ongoing redevelopment in Sentosa and HarbourFront.

JLL does not see major, across-the-board increases in plot ratios in MP 2008. But it argues that intensifying land use for undeveloped state plots along these stations will spread social benefits from the government's investment in the Circle Line to more people and also improve accessibility.

Raising plot ratios (ratio of maximum potential gross floor area to land area) will also address the issue of rising demand for Singapore's properties and prevent overcrowding in specific areas such as the central and CBD regions.

Although the Circle Line also touches locations near Dhoby Ghaut and Bishan MRT stations, JLL excludes them as these areas already have high plot ratios.

The study also suggests that white sites - with a range of uses and change in use mix allowed - will be more readily available islandwide instead of being confined largely to the CBD. 'It further promotes creativity in future projects,' says JLL's head of research (South-east Asia) Chua Yang Liang.

He also sees the Urban Redevelopment Authority introducing more mixed use, rather than traditional single-use zones, to 'further provide the flexibility needed to accommodate changing demand patterns as a result of shifting demographics' . MP 2008 could also be more tolerant of non-traditional types of residences. For instance, obsolete industrial buildings could be re-modelled along the lines of New York's Manhattan lofts. 'This will accommodate shifting market forces and tastes,' Dr Chua argues.

JLL also suggests that URA may realign traditional industrial estates to support demand needs of the knowledge-based economy or rezone them for other uses. 'For example, industrial areas within housing estates such as those found in Jalan Pemimpin could potentially be rezoned to residential or possibly an education hub,' it said. After all, the area is near Raffles Institution and Raffles Junior College.

MP 2008 could also extend the 'work, live and play' concept beyond Marina Bay into the suburbs as Singapore cannot live by its business image alone, JLL predicts. 'We can expect to see more areas designed for cultural developments, for example, the civic, cultural and retail complex in Buona Vista, and new conservation areas that serve to retain the fabric of the collective memory,' Dr Chua said.

JLL also expects to see many more recreational zones across Singapore. 'The likes of the recent Punggol announcement will be more common,' the study said.

On the back of Sentosa Cove's success, JLL expects other islets around Singapore like Southern Islands and Pulau Ubin to be put for waterfront residential use.

In the existing CBD, JLL suggests that Shenton Way will see a further shift towards a mixed-use (including residential) district, once the current office supply crunch eases. In May last year, URA announced a temporary ban on conversion of office use in the central area, including the CBD, to other uses until end-2009.

Last year, the government identified Jurong East and Paya Lebar for development into business hubs. Dr Chua says land around Paya Lebar MRT Station will be intensified in line with government plans to transform it into a sub-regional centre and that the location will be ideal for cost-conscious office tenants.

However, Dr Chua suggests that the area around Jurong East MRT Station is more suited for research and development because of its proximity to universities, the Science Park and one-north rather than as an alternative backoffice hub along the lines of Tampines.

National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan last year also ruled out massive, across-the-board islandwide increases in plot ratios for MP 2008 to cope with a higher population target of 6.5 million. The Master Plan, a detailed land use plan that guides Singapore's medium-term physical development, is reviewed every five years.

hope to see lofts in SG. those converted from warehouses with high ceilings like in NYC.

"The average price of US$1,180 psf set a record, up 18.2% from a year earlier and 3.1% from the prior quarter, according to the Prudential report.
"

Thats SGD 1652 psf. What can $1.7k psf get you in SG?

My fine feathered friend the operative word is "AVERAGE" thus S$1700 AVERAGE for Sg is quite high !!

My fine feathered friend the operative word is "AVERAGE" thus S$1700 AVERAGE for Sg is quite high !!

But we are talking abt Manhattan. Should be comparable to Orchard or Marina Bay area.

But we are talking abt Manhattan. Should be comparable to Orchard or Marina Bay area.

I must insist that you visit Manhattan Sir -- it has its fair (& more) share of rent controlled premises & equivalent of "HBD" type housing too ! The Big Apple is not quite Orchard/Marina Bay as an "AVERAGE" dude !

ok. thanks for enlightening me.

Terra's Mr Gregory Heym said the Manhattan apartment market had not yet felt downward pressure from cuts in bonuses on Wall Street, where jobs are on the line as big investment banks take huge write-downs due to the sub-prime crisis.

147,000 jobs on the line to be exact....Good luck to anyone buying Manhattan at current prices right now...

Thinking abt property mkts. Does property mkts discount news like stock mkts?

Meaning those news already known have no impact on prices? If prop mkts discount news, then IR/F1 etc will not have much impact?

And did F1 in KL lead to higher prices?

Anyone got any thots on these things?

Property market not stock market. It's long term. Also end-users (normally). So never fully discounted. Some investors will see what will happen and go in early, partly boosting prices. Then rest follows after the event.
e.g. earlier talked about West Kowloon in HK. Announcement Morgan Stanley moving in nearby did not make much difference. Nor did the fact people knew there would be a shopping mall (Elements). Only after shopping mall opened did price really move. This is when end-users can see it and say 'I want to live there'.

Not sure about F1 - but this will be a night race, and will give publicity to SG. However, Olympics does have a well known effect on property (but some of it may be infrastructure spending ?).

I don't think IR will have big effect in SG as economy not so dependent on this. SG is more diversified than Macau, and also different from Vegas. Economy in general (and prob finance sector esp) more important for SG. SG likely to stop at 2 IRs for now. LV has no limitations, so they keep rebuilding and expanding.

Amazing..over the past 2-3 years, I have seen a lot of condos up 80% to 120% from their bottom while this is URA index is up 50% from bottom Now I really dunno how this index is compiled :lol:

SINGAPORE - Singapore private home prices rose at a slower quarterly pace of 6.6 per cent in the last three months of 2007, according to government figures released on Wednesday.


URA index seriously flawed and lagging. Other post have mentioned D10 prices down 10%. Rise early this year was more, and likely last quarter flat if it wasn't for lag factor.

US slowdown won't eat into S'pore growth: MM Lee
Temasek, GIC comfortable with Merrill, UBS, he says
Chuang PeckMing
Business Times
Tuesday, 8 January 2008

A slowdown in the American or European economy will not reduce the rate of Singapore's economic growth, according to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew.

Barring a 'big recession', China and India - where the economies are tipped to expand by 8-10% yearly - will provide the dynamism to pull the rest of Asia's economies along in the next five years, Mr Lee said last night at a dialogue session hosted by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS).

At the end of the five years, Singapore will reach a new plateau, leaving the 'old Singapore' behind as more Singaporeans can enjoy the finer things in life, including arts and culture.

Mr Lee said the economy should then do well as the two integrated resorts (IRs) will be in full operation to give the tourism and hospitality sectors a big boost.

And if things go well in another five years, he said Singapore will be like Italy or Austria today.

Which is not a bad thing, considering where it had started from - zero resources and given a low chance of survival, according to Mr Lee.

Singapore must now consolidate what it has achieved, and not risk it, he said. When it had few 'chips' in the early days, it could take more risk; now that it has more, Singapore should move cautiously, Mr Lee said.

With no natural resources like oil to fall back on, he said Singaporeans have been toughened and motivated to succeed. If Singapore had been rich in oil, Mr Lee said it would not be where it is today.

Responding to a question on the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation's (GIC) acquisition of a 9% stake in Swiss bank UBS in the wake of the US sub-prime mortgage woes, Mr Lee said Singapore is not averse to American banks or financial institutions.

He noted that Temasek invested US$4.4 billion in Merrill Lynch, the American investment banking giant.

GIC paid $14 billion for a 9% stake in UBS - making it the biggest shareholder - because GIC has confidence in the bank's management and growth potential, Mr Lee said. 'It is comfortable with UBS.'

But he also pointed out that Temasek is also comfortable with Merrill Lynch and believes that the investment bank will recover from the losses it suffered.

Touching on the United States presidential race, Mr Lee said whoever is elected the next US president will have a plateful of foreign policy issues to deal with, including a more assertive Russia and a rising China and India.

Still, at the end of the day, he said the US remains an unbeatable economic and military power. Time and again, the US economy has made a strong comeback after showing signs of faltering.

Mr Lee said the US economy stays resiliently strong and that it is well ahead on the technology front.

The Chinese are keenly aware of this - and would not engage the Americans in a confrontation that would upset China's economic development, he indicated.

Saizen only trying to refinance <SGD 357m yen-denominated loans. Cannot refinance at better rates than existing loans.

Seems that S-REITS cannot borrow cheap yen at yield-accretive rates.

S-REITS like Allco, Mapletree, Cambridge may be affected since they have been buying Japanese assets using cheap yen loans. S-REITs no growth liao.
Yields should be going up.

Another sign that credit markets are tight. No more firepower for funds and companies. Meaning bulk purchases of condos and sites by funds will be difficult. Enbloc more or less dead.

Maybe this is reason why CityDev 'donated' $400m in tax credits to govt rather than paying out $2bn in dividends. Cash tight.


PRESS RELEASE
CONTINUES TO GROW ASSET PORTFOLIO WITH IPO WAR CHEST
VOLUNTARILY POSTPONES REFINANCING PLANS AMIDST CREDIT
MARKET UNCERTAINTIES


Singapore, 8 January 2008 – Japan Residential Assets Manager Limited (the “Manager”),
manager of Saizen Real Estate Investment Trust (“Saizen REIT”), Singapore’s first REIT
with purely Japanese regional residential properties, is pleased to provide an update on
recent developments of Saizen REIT.
Asset portfolio continues to grow
In its announcements on 29 November 2007 and 8 January 2008, Saizen REIT has
announced, following its listing in November 2007, the completion of investments in 17
properties for a total consideration of JPY 5.8 billion (S$ 76.2 million). With the completion
of these acquisitions, Saizen REIT’s portfolio now comprises 1641 properties located in 13
cities in Japan with an estimated appraised value of JPY 52.7 billion (S$ 691.9 million), a
total gross floor area of 251,238 square metres and a total net lettable area of 220,495
square metres.
Said Mr. Chang Sean Pey, Chief Executive Officer of the Manager, “We are pleased to have
successfully completed investments in 14 properties which we have targeted to invest at the
time of listing. Also, we have invested in 3 additional properties which will further accrete to
Saizen REIT’s distribution per unit.”
Postponement in Saizen REIT’s refinancing plans
The Manager also announces the voluntary postponement in Saizen REIT’s refinancing
plans, originally intended in December 2007. The intention of the refinancing plans was to
refinance certain existing borrowings at more favourable terms. Nevertheless, the
availability of financing and their terms have been affected amidst uncertainties of the global
credit markets. While the Manager reassesses the credit markets in light of recent
developments, it has slowed down Saizen REIT’s investment pace.
The Manager added that the leasing activities and operations of Saizen REIT’s property
investments have remained stable and not been affected. It does not expect the
postponement in refinancing plans to have a material impact on the distributions of Saizen
REIT.

Mr. Chang said, “In view of recent developments in the global credit markets, we find that
now is not an optimal time to conduct the refinancing and shall wait for the markets to
improve. We wish to highlight the fact that the refinancing plan is entirely voluntary and no
existing borrowings are falling due in the near term while at the same time, Saizen REIT
currently maintains a cash balance equivalent to approximately JPY 4.1 billion (S$ 53.9
million) and holds properties with value of JPY 6.1 billion (S$ 80.1 million) on an
unencumbered basis. In fact, with its low gearing and war chest built from the listing
exercise, Saizen REIT is poised to take advantage of attractive investment opportunities
under current market conditions.”

Queenstown flat sold for record $890k
Tan Hui Yee & Jessica Cheam
The Straits Times
Wednesday, 9 January 2008
http://www.asiaone.com/A1MEDIA/news/01Jan08/20080109.072109_hdb-record.jpg
The brief for the property agent was simple: Find an HDB flat with great views and near an MRT station. Top floors only - and, it appears, never mind the price.

Two intense days of door-knocking and a record $890,000 later, the buyer has his dream home - and the most expensive Housing Board flat in the country.

For his money, he gets a spacious 21st-storey executive flat in Queenstown, with expansive views towards Sentosa and leafy Mount Faber on one side and Queenstown Stadium on the other.

The 13-year-old flat in Block 150, Mei Ling Street, is just a few minutes away from Queenstown MRT via a sheltered walkway, and a swimming complex is just around the corner.

The owners, Mr David Ho Khoi Seng, 72, and wife Judy, 64, had paid just over $300,000 for the 1,614 sq ft flat, which has four bedrooms, a living room and a study, in 1992.

Mr Ho, who runs a stationery shop, said he had no intention of selling when PropNex agent David See and his son came knocking last Thursday.

The couple tried to deter the buyers - believed to be an elderly couple who own private property - by asking for what they felt was a ridiculous $900,000.

'We thought $900,000 was too high a price for anyone, but the buyers seemed pretty desperate to find a suitable flat,' said Mr Ho.

Mr See, 47, said he roped in his 20-year-old son Wilson for the quest to give him some work experience before he starts university later this year.

But knocking on doors, he said, is something he would only do for 'genuine buyers'.

'It was a challenge. It's not easy to get people to sell high-floor units at this time,' he added.

Demand had sent HDB resale prices up 17.4 per cent last year, the highest in a decade, but executive flats in coveted districts near the central city like Queenstown and Bukit Merah have been extra hot.

The old record for an HDB flat was $780,000 - also for an executive flat in Mei Ling Street - achieved last November.

Five other such flats in Mei Ling Street changed hands between November and December, ranging in price from $728,000 to $765,000.

Median resale prices of executive flats in Queenstown hit $719,000 between July and September last year, a jump from $609,000 in the previous quarter. This type of flat in Queenstown commanded $120,000 in cash over their valuation in the same period.

A five-roomer in Kim Tian Place in nearby Bukit Merah changed hands for $720,000 last June.

With prices of resale HDB flats expected to climb further, the latest deal has prompted some people to ask when a public housing unit will cross the $1 million mark.

Agents reckon that is a way off yet.

Mr See thinks his record deal was more a reflection of the buyers' eagerness, rather than market sentiment.

Meanwhile, Mr Ho and his wife will live with their 35-year-old son in his Siglap terrace house until they find a suitable home.

When they move, Mr Ho will have to give up a pastime of his: Watching S-League football matches at Queenstown Stadium from the balcony of his Mei Ling Street flat's master bedroom.

Business Times - 10 Jan 2008


Bids for transitional office site fall short of expectations

By ARTHUR SIM

THE Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has named the bidders for a 15-year leasehold transitional office site at Mountbatten Road. The top bid came in at $14.9 million or $69.17 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) - 14 per cent less than the last site awarded, in Tampines.

Of the three bids received, the top price was offered by Mezzo Properties Pte Ltd. The bidder is understood to be associated with MV Land, which was awarded an industrial site at Sin Ming Lane in a public tender with a bid of $68.9 million or about $50 psf ppr in October 2007.

Superbowl Land put in the second highest bid of $14.8 million (or $68.70 psf ppr) while Soilbuild Group bid $10.93 million (or $50.77 psf ppr).

The URA said that the decision on the award of the tender will be made after the bids have been evaluated.

While the top bid falls short of market expectations, Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han believed that the URA is likely to award the site as transitional offices have a mandate as a 'quick fix' to address the critical office supply crunch.

Based on recent tenders, prices for transitional office sites appear to be falling.

In November 2007, a tender for a transitional office site in Tampines drew just one bid of $10 million, which works out to $80.65 psf ppr, lower than the $100 psf ppr region that most property consultants had estimated.

The Mountbatten site being closer to the city and opposite the future sports hub, Mr Han had expected bids to be around $140 psf ppr. He said that based on the top bid, the potential developer of the Mountbatten site could stand to reap double digit yields if the space can be leased at $4-5 psf per month.

Business Times - 10 Jan 2008


JLL sees more intensive land use near Buona Vista Station

Area undergoing development to turn it into commercial and R&D hub

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

LAND use around Buona Vista Station is likely to be intensified to maintain the buzz from the development of one north and optimise the area's improved accessibility when the new Circle Line intersects with the existing East-West Line.

Making the point in a study on likely changes in Master Plan 2008, Jones Lang LaSalle's head of research (South-east Asia) Chua Yang Liang says: 'Buona Vista is fast becoming the next sub-regional centre for the western region'.

The area is undergoing intensive development to turn it into 'a commercial and R&D hub' with social and recreational amenities, as envisaged by official planners.

Property consultants expect more intense land use to be confined largely to the areas close to the existing and adjacent new (Circle Line) MRT stations and to sensitively integrated with lush greenery and colonial-type buildings in places like Rochester Park and Wessex Estate to create a blend of the old and new.

'In other words, this is not going to be a sterile environment, ' says DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah. 'The whole place will be very vibrant, like university towns in the US and UK. MNCs tend to be attracted to where the talent is, where universities are.'

JLL identified several sites in the immediate vicinity of the existing and new Buona Vista MRT stations for its study on anticipated plot ratio changes in Master Plan 2008.

Two vacant state sites flanking the MRT stations, which are currently zoned for commercial use but without plot ratios specified in Master Plan 2003, could see plot ratios of 4.8-5.6 in Master Plan 2008, Dr Chua suggests, comparing them to the URA and MND buildings near Tanjong Pagar MRT Station and Revenue House near Novena MRT Station.

A reserve site - part of which is now used as a bus interchange - could be rezoned for commercial use integrated with a new bus interchange, JLL suggests in its study.

This would be akin to similar commercial buildings with bus interchanges near Ang Mo Kio and Toa Payoh MRT stations.

Two sites now zoned for Business 1 use (clean and light industrial/warehous e use) could have plot ratios raised from 2.5 to 2.8 to maximise their potential, JLL reckons.

New developments at one-north include Biopolis (the first two phases of which are already up) and Fusionopolis (phase 1 will be ready by the end of this quarter); a mixed use development by United Engineers that will include The Rochester condo, retail podium and business hotel; One North Residences by UOL, Low Keng Huat and Kheng Leong; and right next to the new Circle Line MRT Station, a civic, cultural and retail complex with a 5,000-seat theatre and a mall with mostly food and beverage and entertainment outlets, developed jointly by CapitaLand and Rock Productions. All of these are part of one north, which is positioned as an icon of a knowledge-based economy.

As well, Buona Vista is close to trendy areas like Holland Village and Rochester Park and several academic institutions including National University of Singapore, Insead, Anglo Chinese Junior College and Anglo Chinese School (Independent) , and United World College, plus the emerging high-tech area of Tanglin Halt Industrial Estate.

New year, new predictions

Specialists expect Singapore’s residential property market to continue its upward rise, with the mid-tier sector targeted as the star performer.by Sonia Kolesnikov-Jessop

Property specialists have looked into their crystal balls and they all seem to agree on one thing: the good times for the Singapore property market are here to stay, even though price increases are likely to slow down.

“Singapore’s real estate market should continue to sparkle and remain a star performer in the region,” predicted Tay Kah Poh, Senior Vice President and Head of Research and Strategic Planning at Pacific Star Group. “The strong fundamentals are intact. Going forward, we still expect increases, although more gradual, in both prices and rentals in 2008 and 2009. We expect the mid-end segment to outperform.”

“Our research indicates that overall we can expect another 26-30% increase for average prices of resale properties in the prime districts in 2008,” added Chua Yang Liang, Head of Research, South East Asia for Jones Lang LaSalle. “We reckon average resale prices in the mass market may increase some 32-36%, with the East Coast, Central and Northeast districts leading the pack.”

Ku Swee Yong, Director of Marketing and Business Development at Savills Singapore, believes that average prices for the high-end market could rise by another 15-20% to hit an average of $3,000psf. “I believe it’s possible some units within the super-luxury residential projects could cross the $6,000psf mark,” he predicted. Like others, Ku is even more upbeat for mid-tier prices, where he sees average values going up 20-40% in 2008 to reach around $2,000psf.

The bullish sentiment in the residential market last year saw resale prices in the luxury prime market averaging $2,600psf in the third quarter, up 44.4% on the year. Prices in that segment of the market have now recovered to pass their previous historical peak of 1996.

While there has been a trickle-down effect on the rest of the market, further fuelled by rising demand for replacement homes from en-bloc sales, prices in the mid market rose more slowly and remain 10% below their historical peak, with mass market prices still 12-15% below their high.

Robust footing

Looking forward, Singapore’s economic fundamentals remain robust, with the broad-based GDP growth expected to continue next year. However, risk factors like a possible recession in the United States or a widening of the sub-prime crisis and the threat of further government policies to cool the market may act as brakes.

For the property market, this means a period of consolidation lies ahead, predicts Kwek Leng Beng, Executive Chairman of Hong Leong Group. “In a way, the sub-prime situation in the US is a blessing because it’s a win-win situation for the buyers, the developers and the government,” Kwek said.

“Buyers here don’t have to chase after runaway prices. It’s also good for the developers because they want sustainability and it’s good for the government because it doesn’t have to prescribe any headache pills to correct the market.”

Kwek believes a slower pace of growth will be a good sign for the property market, helping it avoid a boom-and-bust cycle.

Ku is a more optimistic about the market prospects, expecting the buying momentum to resume in the New Year. “The general market consensus is that supply will likely tighten further in 2008, as the expected demolitions from en-bloc sales outstrip the completion of new projects,” he said, estimating that en-bloc sellers probably have about S$4-5 billion budget to spend on new homes in the first half of this year.

An estimated 10,000 units from en-bloc sales are expected to be demolished this year, while TOPs (temporary occupation permits) from new projects are expected to re-supply only around 8,000 units.

Tay believes the structural supply shortage is mainly a near-term issue. “An estimated 42,183 private residential units are scheduled for completion between now and 2010, but the supply is back-end loaded, creating a supply gap in the near term,” Tay noted.

“Adopting a conservative demand projection based on historical average take-up since 2004, we expect average prices and rents to escalate a further 10-20%, before softening in 2009.”

But Chua believes that some owners will begin to review their options some 9-12 months before the physical completion of their units, when full payment (80% of value) has to be made. “Supply of such properties in the resale market may increase, adding further downward pressure to capital values in general,” he pointed out.

Turn of the mid-tier

Soaring high-end home prices and the supply crunch in prime districts is likely to force some buyers to turn their attention to mid-tier projects.

Areas that will benefit from the rise in the mid-tier market include Balestier, Bukit Timah, Novena, Thomson and Upper East Coast, predicts Ku. He said upcoming projects to keep an eye on include Cascadia and Floridian at Bukit Timah, and the unnamed development by CDL in Thomson Road, which should give an indication of the strength in the mid-tier market.

For the mass market, areas likely to see the most significant price gains include Upper Paya Lebar, Hougang, Ang Mo Kio, Upper Thomson, Clementi and West Coast, Jurong East, Upper Bukit Timah and Bedok, Ku added. Look out for launches at Simon Road, Ang Mo Kio, Bedok Reservoir and Clementi/West Coast.

There are also a host of high-end and super-luxury projects set to launch in 2008, such as the Ritz-Carlton Residences at Cairnhill, Hilltops at Cairnhill and Paterson Suites at Paterson Road, along with The Marina Collection, The Quayside Isle and several landed properties on Sentosa Cove.

However, property experts warn that regulatory risk could heighten if price growth in the residential market continues unabated. Most recently, the government withdrew the deferred payment scheme for residential properties sold off-plan, a scheme many believe responsible for fuelling speculative demand.

Kwek also believes that given the recent cooling off in the market, property developers are less likely to rush to launch new projects. “Business is business and we want to maximise profit,” he said. “In the last three to four years, developers have enjoyed good profit margins, so they can afford to not rush in and sell flats now. I think we can now build and hold for the longer term.

^^^^
Wow, seems generally very rosy !
Hope they're right... however has anyone got info to show the market is doing well ? Or do we have to wait for the new launches and responses ?

can they say anything negative? consultants and developers still got projects to sell.

ku comments must discount. no. 1 ko yok man. made his name by high targets.

i will look for non dps projects responses for mkt trend indications since non dps and resale both use mortgages.

as i said, watch the rentals mkt and marginal boutique developers' actions.

ku comments must discount. no. 1 ko yok man. made his name by high targets.


Totally agree, if u just want to hear good things just look for his comments.

Any updates on property mkt? Property stocks are selling down very heavily. Heard that bank lending may be stricter. dunno how much truth in it though. but i know citibank interest offset loan, no longer has full offset.

citi mortgage offset long time ago already offset 66.66% only. Only HSBC do full offset.

Totally agree, if u just want to hear good things just look for his comments.

Any updates on property mkt? Property stocks are selling down very heavily. Heard that bank lending may be stricter. dunno how much truth in it though. but i know citibank interest offset loan, no longer has full offset.

citi mortgage offset long time ago already offset 66.66% only. Only HSBC do full offset.

ok. because i read it on shareinvestor forum. someone commented his home loan. jus changed his mortgage offset to 70% on dec 7 2007, previously 100%. maybe even those existing at 100% previously were jus switched to 70%.

i thought the one that did a removal long time ago was standchart.

Dunno if it is worldwide or US alone?

But i think it is the start of 'fire' phase of 'hire & fiire' HR policies of US Inv Banks. Confirmed got headcount freeze. Standard SOP. Dunno how if it will affect SG rentals mkt.

1Q will see lots of people looking for financing.

Citigroup to Cut 20,000 Jobs and Slash Dividend, WSJ Reports

By Christine Harper and Nick Baker

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. plans to eliminate more than 20,000 jobs, slash its quarterly dividend and collect at least $10 billion in cash from outside investors to shore up capital eroded by subprime losses, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

About 6,500 of the more than 20,000 job cuts will be in the investment bank, the Journal said. The largest investor to add new capital is the Government Investment Corp. of Singapore, the report said. The Kuwait Investment Authority, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and at least one U.S. fund management firm are also investing in Citigroup, the Journal said.

The bank's board members were preparing to sign off on the plan from Vikram Pandit, the bank's new chief executive officer, at a meeting today, the paper reported, citing one of the people familiar with the matter. Citigroup spokeswoman Christina Pretto didn't immediately return a call seeking comment.

Citigroup, based in New York, is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings tomorrow morning. The average estimate of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is for a loss of 97 cents a share.

If the firm cuts more than 20,000 jobs, it would be the largest program of cuts announced by a bank or brokerage since a surge in subprime mortgage defaults led financial institutions to write down about $100 billion from the value of securities backed by home loans.

``The big losses they're reporting inevitably are the sorts of forces that drive layoffs,'' John Challenger, chief executive officer of Chicago-based placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., said before the report. ``Companies need to cut their costs to manage through these periods of severe losses. At a bank, cutting your costs often means salaries.''

Job Losses

Financial institutions eliminated more than 153,000 jobs last year, with about 86,000 related to the mortgage business, according to data compiled by Challenger Gray. That was more than triple the 50,300 jobs eliminated by the industry in 2006, the firm said.

Bank of America Corp., the second-biggest U.S. bank, said in October that it would eliminate 3,000 jobs, mostly at the corporate and investment banking unit, after about $2 billion of writedowns and trading losses in the third quarter.

Citigroup's most recent quarterly dividend was 54 cents a share and the payout hasn't been cut or suspended since the firm was created in the 1998 merger of Travelers Group Inc. and Citicorp.

The bank's $2.16 annual dividend is equal to 7.4 percent of its stock price, more than twice the 3.6 percent yield of the average financial stock in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Reversing Course

A cut in the dividend would reverse a Nov. 4 statement by Citigroup that it had ``no plans to reduce its current dividend level.'' Charles O. Prince stepped down as CEO after the bank warned of bigger-than-expected writedowns on subprime mortgages and related securities.

Analysts including William Tanona at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Betsy Graseck at Morgan Stanley have been forecasting a reduction in Citigroup's dividend. Tanona estimated on Dec. 27 that Citigroup would cut the dividend 40 percent. Graseck estimated on Jan. 9 that the dividend would be reduced 44 percent to 30 cents from 54 cents a share.

Citigroup shares rose 50 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $29.06 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading today. In after- hours trading, they gained 18 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $29.24 as of 5:54 p.m. in New York.

Bad for rental and resale if there is no urgency to buy.

As I said before, time is not on sellers' side. Imbalance will be corrected over time and relative bargaining powers of sellers will drop.

Signal that prop mkt is soft.

Ku Swee Yong should make adjustment to his 'desperate enbloc buyers' theory.

GuocoLand to consider limited lease extension for Leedon Heights owners

By Rachel Kelly, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 14 January 2008 2222 hrs


SINGAPORE: Property developer GuocoLand is considering allowing former owners of Leedon Heights condominium in District 10 to continue staying on in their units for a limited period of time.

This is a goodwill gesture at the request of some residents of the development who want more time to find replacement units.

The 23-year-old Leedon Heights, off Farrer Road, was sold to GuocoLand in a collective sale last year for S$835 million.

Together with a S$40 million development charge, the price works out to S$1,062 per square foot per plot ratio.

Some owners said they had asked for more time to vacate their units while they looked for replacement units.

Karamjit Singh, Credo's managing director, said: "Well, most developers prefer to get on with their demolition construction so as to be able to market their projects. Usually, contractually, owners are allowed up to six months (to vacate their units).

"Recently, what some developers with large projects have done is to build showflats within the large land areas at an obscure corner that allows existing occupants to stay on in the units while the new projects are being marketed."

This appears to be what GuocoLand may do as well. Responding to queries from Channel NewsAsia, GuocoLand said it believes that the land parcel is large enough for it to undertake its marketing initiatives for the new development, without inconveniencing the residents.

As such, it is considering the request to allow Leedon Heights residents to remain in their homes for a limited period.

Leedon Heights sits on a land area of about 48,500 square metres with a plot ratio of 1.6, which can accommodate buildings of up to 12 storeys.

Nicholas Mak, director of Knight Frank, said: "It's very unusual for developers to lease back to their owners, after the collective sale. The reason is because the developers are buying the site only for redevelopment.

"For developers to do that - I think that has happened before, during the Asian financial crises - it would usually mean that the developer feels that the market, the primary sales market, is rather weak and is not ready to support the kind of selling price that they have in mind."

According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), there were almost 65,400 private residential units in the pipeline last September. Of these, 41,600 are slated to be completed between this year and 2010. - CNA/ir

CNA: Buyers more cautious when buying new properties last month

SINGAPORE: Homebuyers were more cautious and realistic when paying for new properties last month, according to analysts' assessment of the latest data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority.

The figures showed the number of new properties sold in December was just half of those sold in the previous month.

After peaking at 1,800 units in August, monthly sales of new private properties have dropped to just 291 units in December – half of the number of units sold during the previous month.

Property consultants said that is not unexpected, given the global credit crunch, slowing US economy and withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme.

Tay Huey Ying, Research & Consultancy Director, Colliers International, said: "What all this does to the mind of the potential purchasers is that it becomes very grey which direction home prices are going to take. So I think a lot of potential purchasers have preferred to stay by the side in the month of December, in view of the fact that it's the year-end holiday season.

"I guess a lot of them preferred to take a vacation and defer any purchase or any investment decisions to perhaps 2008 and very likely, after the Lunar New Year period."

Analysts said the data showed home prices were stabilising, with luxury projects such as The Ritz-Carlton Residences achieving a median price of about S$5,088 psf for the three units sold.

According to Jones Lang LaSalle, the gap between the highest and lowest median selling prices has narrowed from 15.8 percent in October to 8.2 percent in December for the core central region.

The out-of-central region properties have also seen its median price gap drop from 14.2 percent in October to 5 percent in December. That means fewer buyers are willing to fork out significantly more than expected market prices.

Dr Chua Yang Liang, Director & Head of Research, South East Asia, Jones Lang LaSalle, said: "I call it the buoyancy level. If you look in terms of the highest median versus the lowest median, and the behaviour over the last few months, the gap has kind of narrowed in the last two months, which indicates that buyers are more conservative."

That applies to both luxury properties in the core central region, as well as mass market properties.

Despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, the number of units sold last year still came up to a historical record of 14,800.

Eyeballed the figures.

I guess most projects listed in URA are >70% sold. Esp those launched in Aug-Oct 07. Developers can hold and maintain pricing for now.

Would be interesting to see new projects' responses. Esp without DPS. This weekend got Waterfront Waves in Bedok Res. L99.


CNA: Buyers more cautious when buying new properties last month

SINGAPORE: Homebuyers were more cautious and realistic when paying for new properties last month, according to analysts' assessment of the latest data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority.

The figures showed the number of new properties sold in December was just half of those sold in the previous month.

After peaking at 1,800 units in August, monthly sales of new private properties have dropped to just 291 units in December – half of the number of units sold during the previous month.

Property consultants said that is not unexpected, given the global credit crunch, slowing US economy and withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme.

Tay Huey Ying, Research & Consultancy Director, Colliers International, said: "What all this does to the mind of the potential purchasers is that it becomes very grey which direction home prices are going to take. So I think a lot of potential purchasers have preferred to stay by the side in the month of December, in view of the fact that it's the year-end holiday season.

"I guess a lot of them preferred to take a vacation and defer any purchase or any investment decisions to perhaps 2008 and very likely, after the Lunar New Year period."

Analysts said the data showed home prices were stabilising, with luxury projects such as The Ritz-Carlton Residences achieving a median price of about S$5,088 psf for the three units sold.

According to Jones Lang LaSalle, the gap between the highest and lowest median selling prices has narrowed from 15.8 percent in October to 8.2 percent in December for the core central region.

The out-of-central region properties have also seen its median price gap drop from 14.2 percent in October to 5 percent in December. That means fewer buyers are willing to fork out significantly more than expected market prices.

Dr Chua Yang Liang, Director & Head of Research, South East Asia, Jones Lang LaSalle, said: "I call it the buoyancy level. If you look in terms of the highest median versus the lowest median, and the behaviour over the last few months, the gap has kind of narrowed in the last two months, which indicates that buyers are more conservative."

That applies to both luxury properties in the core central region, as well as mass market properties.

Despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, the number of units sold last year still came up to a historical record of 14,800.

Real estate market quiet as uncertainty looms in US

Buyers might want to delay their property purchases till a clearer picture emerges, say experts

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent


IN THE LEAD-UP TO CHINESE NEW YEAR, sales activity is expected to slack, but some condos have launched staff previews. These include Waterfront Waves (above), which will be developed by Far East Organization and Frasers Centrepoint. Prices have been set at $750 psf to $800 psf fro the Bedok Rservoir condo. -- PHOTO: FRASERS CENTREPOINT

THE Singapore property market has turned somewhat jittery in the face of growing fears about a recession in the United States.

Analysts suggest that unless buyers need a home to live in, they might want to delay any purchases until a clearer picture emerges.

The days when speculators could make quick, easy profits are almost certainly over, they say.

Thus, consultants do not expect much sales activity in the lead-up to Chinese New Year, especially since few launches have been scheduled.

Indeed, market players might hold off till the Budget is released later next month, so they can gauge the Government's stance, said one consultant, who added: 'If I were a buyer, I'd wait before committing myself to a property investment.'

Apart from worries that a US recession might hurt growth in Singapore, some also believe last year's price spurt in high-end homes was overdone.

'If your goal is to flip the property before completion, you should stay out of the market,' said Savills Residential director Ku Swee Yong. Such buyers could end up having to finance their purchases long term, he warned.

He noted that Singapore's property market is stable but said there is a risk that prices could fall. If US sub- prime woes force mortgage insurers to write off bad insurance, this could trigger construction industry layoffs, as well as defaults on consumer credit-card rollover debt and car loans, said Mr Ku.

Some sellers appear to have lowered their expectations, particularly for high-end homes. But their asking levels are likely to remain above the purchase prices, analysts note.

In a recent classified advertisement in The Straits Times, high-floor units at Sky@eleven, a condominium off Thomson Road, were going for $1,250 per sq ft (psf). That falls short of earlier asking prices of $1,300 psf to $1,400 psf, but tops prices achieved at the launch early last year. Then, the highest price garnered was $1,200 psf, with the average at $975 psf.

'The opportunities are there, but it is all a matter of timing,' said a consultant. 'In the short term, people who don't have a lot of money to play with should think twice.'

'Buyers should take a longer-term view and buy when they come across properties priced at acceptable levels,' said Mr Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy. 'Developers are unlikely to cut prices, which should provide support for the market.'

Buyers who plan to live in their new homes, especially if they're using collective sale gains, have less to worry about, though choices in the primary market might be limited. 'Developers are waiting for the tempest in the stock market to pass before launching their properties,' said Mr Mak.

There are favourable deals in the sub-sale and resale market, and the mass and landed markets remain laggards, consultants say. Recent caveats lodged show there are favourable landed buys in suburban spots.

One seasoned property investor said he would continue to scout for bargains but would be more selective.

'The market is nervous but it's not doomsday. There are still good buying opportunities,' he said, adding that he scooped up a few cheap buys just after Sars. 'Do your homework and narrow your search to, for example, areas with a growth story.'

Where new launches are concerned, two condos have started their staff previews. Martin Place Residences in Kim Yam Road is priced at $1,800 psf to $2,300 psf. Over in Bedok Reservoir, Waterfront Waves is priced at $750 psf to $800 psf.

'If your goal is to flip the property before completion, you should stay out of the market,' said Savills Residential director Ku Swee Yong. Such buyers could end up having to finance their purchases long term, he warned.

He noted that Singapore's property market is stable but said there is a risk that prices could fall. If US sub- prime woes force mortgage insurers to write off bad insurance, this could trigger construction industry layoffs, as well as defaults on consumer credit-card rollover debt and car loans, said Mr Ku.


Over in Bedok Reservoir, Waterfront Waves is priced at $750 psf to $800 psf.

This Ku from Savills had been so optimistic projecting mass market price up up and up since last Dec 07, and out of sudden now he became so pessimistic !

The Waterfront Waves showroom today was so heavily packed with crowds. Mid to high floor reservoir view all snapped up yesterday and today's morning.
After 10% discount, $700+ to $800+ psf.

Personally, I prefer East Coast Sea view than Reservoir view.

Ya. Ku seems to be changing views. I am wondering if it is the journalists or consultants that changed views??!!

This week;s The Edge also had article MB Suites. Kep consortium expects to sell out units over 9mth to 1 yr period.

Saturday's preview was for ex-residents. Friend said smaller 2-rm units were taken up.



This Ku from Savills had been so optimistic projecting mass market price up up and up since last Dec 07, and out of sudden now he became so pessimistic !

The Waterfront Waves showroom today was so heavily packed with crowds. Mid to high floor reservoir view all snapped up yesterday and today's morning.
After 10% discount, $700+ to $800+ psf.

Personally, I prefer East Coast Sea view than Reservoir view.

Allco Commercial REIT's manager. End of the capital recycling biz models.

S-REITs' growth are dead. Yields should rise to compensate no/negative growth.

S-REITs been a bad investment for past 3 months.

Allco Has Record Fall on Concern With Debt, Structure

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Allco Finance Group Ltd., an
Australian manager of assets including ships and
aircraft, posted a record fall in Sydney trading as
investors avoided stocks perceived to have high debt
and complex corporate structures.

The stock fell 35 percent to A$3.10 at the close of
trading the Australian Stock Exchange, cutting the
Sydney-based company's market value to A$1.14 billion
($998 million).

Investors are concerned Allco, a stakeholder in at
least five listed investment funds that carry its
name, may be headed for the same fate as Centro
Properties Group and MFS Ltd., which have seen their
share prices slump as they struggle to refinance debt.
Allco and its subsidiaries have A$1.075 billion of
bonds and loans due this year and a further A$1.28
billion maturing in 2009, according to Bloomberg data.


``With MFS going down, people are looking for the next
thing that might hit trouble and they are backing it
to be Allco,'' said Michael Birch, who helps manage
the equivalent of $140 million at Wallace Funds
Management in Sydney. ``It's a jittery market which
doesn't like anything complex.''

Allco was not able to explain why it shares declined
so much and has kept the market informed of
developments at the company, it said in a statement to
the exchange.

Centro, based in Melbourne, has lost more than 90
percent of its value since Dec. 17 after announcing it
was struggling to refinance A$3.9 billion debt because
of the collapse in the subprime mortgage market.

MFS slumped 69 percent on Jan. 18 after announcing
plans to sell new stock to cut debt accumulated by
Michael King as he doubled the assets of the
Southport, Queensland-based company in the past two
years through acquisitions. King resigned today as
Chief Executive Officer.

To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Fenner
in Sydney

who got burnt today?

SG stock mkt dropped abt 30% from peak. Sentiment sure affected.

Said in Sep-Oct that the assets mkts were freaky. Now the party is over.

Rem what my friend said back in June 07, "play stocks and properties better than
working, work for what?". I guess now that it is back to work.

Maybe people dont feel rich and confident abt the future now...

Property market likely to be affected..... especially high end...

Maybe gradually shift to buyers' market over next 6 mths.....

This Ku from Savills had been so optimistic projecting mass market price up up and up since last Dec 07, and out of sudden now he became so pessimistic !



So it seems like that ko yok man has a short radar zooming capabilities.

Shouting when the market ground fever is really hot, unaware that the tsunami is already well travelling underneath from the US coast. For sure he will survive on higher ground when the tidal wave hit our shoreline.

This was me in Dec 2007 boys :
Uncle Kopi & Lord of Macau, be patient & ready with the moolah (hard cash) ...the time will come when the tidal wave from the US meltdown sweeps across the world like a untamed tsunami .. the signs are ominous and future is bleak.. I will not dare make a prediction again as to the exact timimg as I have been too premature (so far) in my gloom & doom for most of 2007 BUT I am cash rich & equity light and very happy to WAIT patiently...we may even get good deals on bay-view units at the Sail come 2008Q4 TOP when wee little boys on borrowed funds have to come up with the delivery amounts and the hungry shylock banks are snapping at their heels.....

This is me today :
Lord Macau schtaw Baby dddddd
Dr Gloom & Doom here
Any one remember me now ??
Sitting pretty on 100% cash from Xmas 2007
Singapore Straits Times 2,917.15 -187.10 -6.03
Who says tiny little Sg is immune from the world now friends??

OK. Dr Gloom & Doom.

You can say it now: "I told xxx xx."

hahahah

This was me in Dec 2007 boys :
Uncle Kopi & Lord of Macau, be patient & ready with the moolah (hard cash) ...the time will come when the tidal wave from the US meltdown sweeps across the world like a untamed tsunami .. the signs are ominous and future is bleak.. I will not dare make a prediction again as to the exact timimg as I have been too premature (so far) in my gloom & doom for most of 2007 BUT I am cash rich & equity light and very happy to WAIT patiently...we may even get good deals on bay-view units at the Sail come 2008Q4 TOP when wee little boys on borrowed funds have to come up with the delivery amounts and the hungry shylock banks are snapping at their heels.....

This is me today :
Lord Macau schtaw Baby dddddd
Dr Gloom & Doom here
Any one remember me now ??
Sitting pretty on 100% cash from Xmas 2007
Singapore Straits Times 2,917.15 -187.10 -6.03
Who says tiny little Sg is immune from the world now friends??

My point bigbirdie was that Sg is NOT immune from the worldwide tsunami !

Ya. I know.

Looking hard at all forums to see if people still quoting

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

Talk easy. Do difficult.

My point bigbirdie was that Sg is NOT immune from the worldwide tsunami !

My point bigbirdie was that Sg is NOT immune from the worldwide tsunami !

Very good view. I took your advice and keep 90% cash in hand.

Now waiting to enter market.

Thank you VERU.

Ya. I know.

Looking hard at all forums to see if people still quoting

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

Talk easy. Do difficult.

Very interesting to see how things can change in a few days. That is why I always say I am lucky to live to see all this changes.

I try to be greedy now, but a weak heart cause my fingers to wobble. STI now down 300 point in 2 days, maybe we have a 1000 points lower by Friday.:bash:

Very hard to time the entry point, but a lot of people got burned.

Things never change in a few days. It is the people's perception. Thats always the case. When times are good, people think everyday is a Sunday.
People prefers to live in denial, rather than face reality.

As Johnny Hates Jazz sang: "...Woke up to reality, and finds the future not so bright...Caught up in the web of lies, But it was just too late to know...
...Given me nothing abt shattered dreams, shattered dreams...."

One of good advice I give myself is "Eat a hearty breakfast when Dow mkt crash overnight. If not, no appetite to eat for the rest of the day"

Very interesting to see how things can change in a few days. That is why I always say I am lucky to live to see all this changes.

I try to be greedy now, but a weak heart cause my fingers to wobble. STI now down 300 point in 2 days, maybe we have a 1000 points lower by Friday.:bash:

Very hard to time the entry point, but a lot of people got burned.

Things never change in a few days. It is the people's perception. Thats always the case. When times are good, people think everyday is a Sunday.
People prefers to live in denial, rather than face reality.

As Johnny Hates Jazz sang: "...Woke up to reality, and finds the future not so bright...Caught up in the web of lies, But it was just too late to know...
...Given me nothing abt shattered dreams, shattered dreams...."

One of good advice I give myself is "Eat a hearty breakfast when Dow mkt crash overnight. If not, no appetite to eat for the rest of the day"

Noted, I shall make breakfast the most important meal from now on. But to me all meals are important, as when come to food I am super greedy.:lol:

Such a sharp correction is better rather than market trending lower slowly. A sharp correction will throw those people still in Alice's wonderland come back to reality. A slow downward trend will make people stay in wonderland longer, and found themselve long dead before they know what is happening.

Folks,

Donno if its premature or not but i think the clipping below maybe useful in any eventuality. Its generic and may not be specific for property investments.

How to Survive an Economic Recession

Introduction
Economic recession is a fact of life, part of the ebb and flow of the economy. There are times of great economic growth, times of little change, and periods where the economy draws back, or recedes. Times of economic recession do not have to be frightening, especially if you prepare ahead of time. Some entrepreneurs even profit from an economic recession. Here are a few simple starting tips to help survive an economic recession.

Steps
Step One Read about how to survive an economic recession. Buy or borrow "Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century" by William Bonner and "Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression" by Robert R. Prechter.

Step Two Work in a critical sector to avoid job loss during an economic recession. Consider health care, food production and supply, government jobs and military careers. Avoid managerial jobs in retail sectors or construction-related jobs that may feel the pinch when cash is tight.

Step Three Minimize spending during an economic recession and save money for the tightest times. Buy only necessities, such as food and fuel, if money is extremely tight during an economic recession. Learn to make and fix items as much as possible.

Step Four Find a niche. Even when cash is scarce, there is still money to be made if you have the skills and services people need. Grow extra food to sell, learn to repair roof leaks or rent out a basement apartment to someone downsizing their living space. Help others save money and you may have a side business.

Step Five Take on no new debt during an economic recession. Your ability to survive tight times is hampered by debt; learn to live on less money than you make, saving as much as possible for potential loss of income and inflated prices.

Folks,

Donno if its premature or not but i think the clipping below maybe useful in any eventuality. Its generic and may not be specific for property investments.

How to Survive an Economic Recession

Introduction
Economic recession is a fact of life, part of the ebb and flow of the economy. There are times of great economic growth, times of little change, and periods where the economy draws back, or recedes. Times of economic recession do not have to be frightening, especially if you prepare ahead of time. Some entrepreneurs even profit from an economic recession. Here are a few simple starting tips to help survive an economic recession.

Steps
Step One Read about how to survive an economic recession. Buy or borrow "Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century" by William Bonner and "Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression" by Robert R. Prechter.

Step Two Work in a critical sector to avoid job loss during an economic recession. Consider health care, food production and supply, government jobs and military careers. Avoid managerial jobs in retail sectors or construction-related jobs that may feel the pinch when cash is tight.

Step Three Minimize spending during an economic recession and save money for the tightest times. Buy only necessities, such as food and fuel, if money is extremely tight during an economic recession. Learn to make and fix items as much as possible.

Step Four Find a niche. Even when cash is scarce, there is still money to be made if you have the skills and services people need. Grow extra food to sell, learn to repair roof leaks or rent out a basement apartment to someone downsizing their living space. Help others save money and you may have a side business.

Step Five Take on no new debt during an economic recession. Your ability to survive tight times is hampered by debt; learn to live on less money than you make, saving as much as possible for potential loss of income and inflated prices.


Dear toenar, thanks for the survival tips, in fact just play the Money game smartly. You think Mr Oei HL , LKS, Warren B etc are likely to sell everything and run for their life in recession? They are now on a look out for companies that are FREE!

Yes you hear me correctly, there are company which have $100M cash and only selling for $100M. To win in this game is to locate this companies and buy as many as you can afford to. (I will not tell you which one, you have to find it yourself)

Money game MOTTO

"Make more money than other, loss less money than the rest.":lol:

Tightening your live will only make you less adventurous.

Very good view. I took your advice and keep 90% cash in hand.

Now waiting to enter market.

Thank you VERU.

You are welcome my dear friend
I am so glad you had faith in me :-)
Phoeey to the bigbird of 1972-- I actually put my money where my mouth (sorry beak) is !

Very good view. I took your advice and keep 90% cash in hand.

Now waiting to enter market.

Thank you VERU.

WAIT my dear friend shctaw WAIT for a day or 2
The pendulum swings & having swung, will not stop till the damage is done ( poet Veru)

WAIT my dear friend shctaw WAIT for a day or 2
The pendulum swings & having swung, will not stop till the damage is done ( poet Veru)

I will have to wait until next week as Friday may be a critical.

???

U play your game. I play mine.

You are welcome my dear friend
I am so glad you had faith in me :-)
Phoeey to the bigbird of 1972-- I actually put my money where my mouth (sorry beak) is !

WAIT my dear friend shctaw WAIT for a day or 2
The pendulum swings & having swung, will not stop till the damage is done ( poet Veru)

Only a day or 2? Damage looks serious. Still looks like more of a trading market so far.

Only a day or 2? Damage looks serious. Still looks like more of a trading market so far.

I think the worst may not be over just yet. Look like the first wave of selling to me.

Magin call, force sell, fund manager retreat etc may come soon........

Now my shares are only value at 50% by bank as collateral. Lucky my 2 company did not borrow much. My friend's DBS shares got sold off as the bank trying to get back cash from loan borrow on share.

He sold at $18. I call that a blessing as now only $16.50.:lol:

Ya. Blue chips, shipyards and REITs. Supposedly safe stocks. All got hammered.

I think lots of people gave up gains in their China and Indian unit trusts also.

I think retail investors all blue-black.

Tonight, Dow will make up for the 2days of falls. 10% = 1200 pts. Scary, but discounted.

Ya. Blue chips, shipyards and REITs. Supposedly safe stocks. All got hammered.

I think lots of people gave up gains in their China and Indian unit trusts also.

I think retail investors all blue-black.

Tonight, Dow will make up for the 2days of falls. 10% = 1200 pts. Scary, but discounted.

Dear BirdBird,

Do not be disheartened, I do not think anyone make any money except those who have short sell with CFD.

Keep the spirit up.

I think the worst may not be over just yet. Look like the first wave of selling to me.

Magin call, force sell, fund manager retreat etc may come soon........

Now my shares are only value at 50% by bank as collateral. Lucky my 2 company did not borrow much. My friend's DBS shares got sold off as the bank trying to get back cash from loan borrow on share.

He sold at $18. I call that a blessing as now only $16.50.:lol:

Immediate top up call. Better to just trade. Tonight US down, tomorrow morning go for a quick one again :lol:. My personal guess now is that the next wave of selling, pple will talk about hedge fund. Sure got some make a lot, but a lot will be killed.

SNP futures limit down..

???

Never lose money. Shorted REITs...hahahhaa..for fun only. Not meaningful position.

Mostly in Cash/FDs since Aug...look like a fool in Oct...

S&P futures got limit?

Now trying to catch falling knives and pao chia stocks.


Dear BirdBird,

Do not be disheartened, I do not think anyone make any money except those who have short sell with CFD.

Keep the spirit up.

???

Never lose money. Shorted REITs...hahahhaa..for fun only. Not meaningful position.

Mostly in Cash/FDs since Aug...look like a fool in Oct...

S&P futures got limit?

Now trying to catch falling knives and pao chia stocks.

Didn't know also. Got at least 2 person tell me limit down liao. 6%, what i heard

Resist The Urge To Buy
FN Arena News - January 22 2008

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Oversold and due for a bounce. While reading some of the messages and market commentaries by local experts in the Australian market, this appears to be the general premise: the market is overdue for a bounce with stockbrokers allegedly waiting for any pause in the panic selling to jump on all those value opportunities that have now opened up.

Don't believe it, says Dennis Gartman in today's edition of his daily The Gartman Letter, this panic selling can go on for several days still. His advice to investors is: "strength is to be sold, not weakness bought. Repeat that often to yourself when the urge go buy becomes overwhelming".

He predicts it may require hundreds more points off the Dow before the panic has been sold out of this market. Early indications so far are the US share market is about to be hit by a similar wave of panic selling orders as has swept throughout share markets worldwide since trading resumed on Monday. The S&P Futures have traded to the limit down prior to the opening of the US market later today. Gartman rightfully remarks this can only mean the news that lies ahead is going to be bad, very bad.

On Friday, he predicted panic would take over in the markets this week. On Monday he warned investors there might be a rally after this wave of indiscriminate selling but it would be nothing but the traditional "sucker rally" - in other words; don't be fooled, it will be temporarily and thus a potential trap for those who'd believe the worst was now and act accordingly.

Today, Tuesday, he confesses events have played out much worse than he thought on Friday. "How long this shall obtain is anyone's guess, and the best we can say is that it will end when it ends. To say anything else is idiocy".

One conclusion is clear, however, if there ever was an increased chance for the Federal Reserve to move ahead of its regular meeting next week, this is it.

One more wise advice from today's Gartman Letter: "in the midst of panic, nothing is beyond the realm of the possible".

Ya. I know.

Looking hard at all forums to see if people still quoting

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

Talk easy. Do difficult.

Sorry bigbird72 -- I was responding to "talk easy..." -- lucky shctaw & me spoke on the phone & by mail in Dec & "did" go into cash !!

Oh,. OK.

Cash is king. BTW Fed just cuts 75 bps in emergency intra-meeting cuts. Ben scared Dow crash.

Fed cuts is a confidence game. It works because people believe that it works.

Sorry bigbird72 -- I was responding to "talk easy..." -- lucky shctaw & me spoke on the phone & by mail in Dec & "did" go into cash !!

Noted, I shall make breakfast the most important meal from now on. But to me all meals are important, as when come to food I am super greedy.:lol:

Such a sharp correction is better rather than market trending lower slowly. A sharp correction will throw those people still in Alice's wonderland come back to reality. A slow downward trend will make people stay in wonderland longer, and found themselve long dead before they know what is happening.

Me still got appetite(for food I mean) cos not into SGX... kopi anyone?

Very interesting to see how things can change in a few days. That is why I always say I am lucky to live to see all this changes.

I try to be greedy now, but a weak heart cause my fingers to wobble. STI now down 300 point in 2 days, maybe we have a 1000 points lower by Friday.:bash:

Very hard to time the entry point, but a lot of people got burned.

Wah lau! That means back to sub 1600. Now I will PUI PUI! Cos u think that's not going to affect my babies(property)? Mai le! "Spit and say again - can" - translate to Cantonese..

My point bigbirdie was that Sg is NOT immune from the worldwide tsunami !

I don't recall bigbird EVER said SG immune... ah shd have waited abit but sigh, gave in to temptation to buy cos even tho I expected a dip in the graph till 2Q. Never expected it to be that bad... I still BELIEVE it will rebound... or perhaps just my wishful thinking...

Me still got appetite(for food I mean) cos not into SGX... kopi anyone?



Never expected it to be that bad... I still BELIEVE it will rebound... or perhaps just my wishful thinking...

Uncle uncle -- put a big shot of XO brandy in your Kopi ! This is going to be an exciting ride in H2 2008

dear all,

us recession is given. europe is on the way. subprime in china has great potential. spore sure affected ... all above are given. but we have ir coming up. how much magic can ir provide ? more on sentiments instead of substantial benefits. i think property will go down by 30%. sad as i am holding on 2. though they r long-term investments, still sad that the paper value is to plunge after waiting patiently for years. those who get en-bloc recently are the biggest winners. $ can be invested in shares & property. if spore economy goes down, i am sure the rental pool will shrink drastically.

what is your take? try to cash out and lower asking $ to a realistic level now ? would this be too late ? :ohno:

dear all,

us recession is given. europe is on the way. subprime in china has great potential. spore sure affected ... all above are given. but we have ir coming up. how much magic can ir provide ? more on sentiments instead of substantial benefits. i think property will go down by 30%. sad as i am holding on 2. though they r long-term investments, still sad that the paper value is to plunge after waiting patiently for years. those who get en-bloc recently are the biggest winners. $ can be invested in shares & property. if spore economy goes down, i am sure the rental pool will shrink drastically.

what is your take? try to cash out and lower asking $ to a realistic level now ? would this be too late ? :ohno:

Do not worry too much. Property invesment is long term, if you want to play property game short term, I prefer to be your broker and not your investment partner.

If you ask me whether it will go Up 30% or Down 30% in 2008, I say either way a possibility.

If you ask me your property's price in 2018, I think it can only go up as there is a thing call Inflation.

If you want to buy new investment property now buy near IR. You should be quite safe. I still choose The Sail, the current market sentiment may offer "Robinson Sale" for buyers.

PS: Keep some cash just in case the bank want more money back from your home loan. The bank have the right to recall the mortgage loans at anytime. Local bank do not practise it as it will cuase the property price to crash as owners are desperate to find buyers for their home. If the bank did a loan recall during SARs and asia financial crisis, a private condo price may drop below HDB price.

In USA it is different, banks can recall loan and put your properties up for foreclosure and sell your house for penny what it is worth. (eg; A Miami condo was auctioned off in Jan 2008 for US$185k while their are worth $600K back in July 2007.)

Do not worry too much. Property invesment is long term, if you want to play property game short term, I prefer to be your broker and not your investment partner.

agree...long term value investors are licking their chops waiting for the over-leveraged to get desparate.

my predictions for 2008:

- flat equity with very volatile swings (this is just the beginning, but end of the year will see us very close to where we are now); lots of trading opportunities to make short term money but very high stress life....long term investors should just buy value when they see it now and then go to sleep for a few years...

- negative real interest rates fuel domestic inflation and certain asset price bubbles in particular markets (ie. HK residential); could be the same in SGP but here is not fuelled by China money so maybe not...depends if u agree with Lehman or not...

- singapore economy will still hit 5% growth; SGD will end the year at 1.35 versus USD

- gold will hit $950-1000 and possibly higher by 2009

fundamentally, singapore has 1.6% unemployment and developers are damn sure going to launch new projects overseas to keep pricing strong and take advantage of those foreign investors looking for currency appreciation....therefore, residential slowdown will still not show up until 2009....expect average demand and stable prices for next 6-12 months....

definitely think there are bargains in catch-up areas and from a few desparate sellers (either over-leveraged or those who need to move for personal reasons and have to sell fast) but must be very judicious when picking....also strongly consider those projects that will TOP in next 6 months...

long term yields also very good in certain SOHO office projects

Since everyone giving their views, i also want to give my views. Though it is more of reiteration of my previous views.

I think rentals will weaken due to more projects TOP and MNCs hiring freeze. MNCs may tighten housing allowance. Worse, may see some layoffs in finance and pharma sectors.

Enbloc desperate buyers 'wildcard'. Likely to be less than expected. More enbloc on hold due to lawsuits. Developers allowing sellers stay longer while waiting for redevelopment.

Enbloc is dead. GLS sites more certain and shorter lead time. Developers inventory quite full already. Sentiment not good for sales. Higher DC coming end Feb 08. Higher DC = death to L99 enbloc sites (MG, LV, LP, NC).

Purely SPECULATIVELY view: Smaller boutique developers failing due to finances. Esp those keep on buying and buying and never sell. No fat to last the famine. Watching Bravo Construction (Tulip Garden & Makeway View) & Hayden, KOP (Ritz Carlton Resi &) . Maybe some boutique GCB players.

Another SPECULATIVELY scenario: Some developers may be hit by DPS scammers. Foreigners or SG 'Tau Pek Kongs' goes MIA/bust when subsale prices goes below purchase prices. Driving subsales prices lower, this caused other DPS buyers get less mortgage than needed. No cash then sell at a loss.

In USA it is different, banks can recall loan and put your properties up for foreclosure and sell your house for penny what it is worth. (eg; A Miami condo was auctioned off in Jan 2008 for US$185k while their are worth $600K back in July 2007.)

Bro shctaw, I also want to buy Miami condo for US$185K... :)

Another SPECULATIVELY scenario: Some developers may be hit by DPS scammers. Foreigners or SG 'Tau Pek Kongs' goes MIA.

:lol:

I was thinking about that during the launch of The Sail. If the price crash I just go MIA and hide somewhere in Malaysia.:lol:

KREIT die die want to raise $700m in rights issue, even though mkt cap now is $370m. Want to raise twice mkt cap.

To repay bridging loan for purchase of One Raffles Quay. ORQ yield 4.8% only. Keppel raises permanent capital at 5.88% to buy 4.8% asset. Crazy.
4.8% yield also creative financing using income support agreement aka rental guarantee until 2011.

Either that, why KREIT cannot refinance $900m Keppel Corp bridging loan (3.3%) at lower rates? Now SOR at 1.9% only. Even at 200 bps spread, only 3.9%. Why locked in negative spread by raising equity? Even Keppel name cannot raise $900m at <4.8% now?

Proposed Rights Issue of New Units
�� To raise up to $700m
�� Issue price to be determined at launch at a discount of up to 20% to
then-prevailing trading price
�� Net proceeds to be used to repay part of the bridging loan


KREIT price now is $1.5, not $2.13. Crap sales talk again.

Manager K-REIT Asia Management Limited

Property Portfolio 5 quality commercial office assets valued at $2.1 bil
Listing and Trading Date 28 Apr 2006 on Singapore Stock Exchange

Market Capitalisation $526.5 million (as at 31 Dec 2007) (1)
Unit Price $2.13 (closing price on 31 Dec 2007)
Total No. of Units 247,183,528 (as at 31 Dec 2007)

Free Float 27.4% (as at 31 Dec 2007) (2)

Sidenote: If Keppel Corp implied guarantee and explicit rental guarantee also cannot get $900m, you think Bravo Construction can get $670m to finance Tulip Garden + Makeway View land purchases? Still got construction loan some more?

Suggest minority owners better sell off units now at >10% disc, better than wait for enbloc failure. Tulip Garden STB approval should be soon.

Despite all the gloom,and crashing numbers.Look around you with your eyes and hear with your ears.The city is boom boom with construction and eye sore cranes.A downturn?Maybe if you play with stocks and shares.MM said we are OK.PM said we are OK too.Later the Sharman and MBT will say we are ok too.Relax.Let the US suffer just before the new president is elected.If there is no US recession we will have a worst scenario.We are talking about a Bushzkrieg against Iran!Now with no money and only 14 months to go.There is now way US can launch an attack on Iran. Fresh air will come after the thunderstorm.

Stocks should NOT affect property market. Interest rates and economy most important.
I still don't think market will fall much, however my view has become more negative as some of the recent changes have been very sudden - in particular, will be watching GDP figures closely. Also, interest rates have been low for a long time in SG, and have not fallen, and are unlikely to fall as much as US and HK (now 2.75-3%, with maybe 2% end of this year). I really think any crash now is really unlikely. I also don't think that many banking jobs are at risk (apart fm bonds) and a large part of financial in SG is now private banking, which won't be affected. At worst, I think banks may not expand.
If economy is OK-ish, market will rise towards the end of this year. This may be more due to HK (and other Asia) rising and SG catching up after its period of consolidation following last year's rise. And by then, hopefully US also in a better shape.

:lol:

I was thinking about that during the launch of The Sail. If the price crash I just go MIA and hide somewhere in Malaysia.:lol:

Friend, Malaysia seems too near ? :lol:

btw, IMO price crash is too exaggarated though.

The US sub prime woes have been in existence and debated extensively with different school of thought for more than a year. The abilities to digest and react according also vary widely among us, depending largely to the individual training.

At the peak of the bullish stage, I recalled our MM Mr.Lee started with a cautionary message that ‘whatever goes up must come down’ and subsequently with another statement that ‘with our robust economies back by the IRs and other initiatives, with support from regional India and China economies’ published across our newspapers.

His first warning message result is getting clearer with passing days but his second message is hidden with coded message that required deep though. A reassuring or calming message?

Is the recent dismal auctioning of land parcels results the beginning of an iceberg? An advance warning and tip from our founding father?

Global property prices had been bouyed by bull stock mkts and itself. All symptoms of dirt-cheap financing/liquidity. Funny to say stock mkts not affecting property prices. I thot the stock mkt-property positive correleration is generally accepted. If people did not make tons of money in stock mkts, you think they will go around snapping up GCBs?

Interest rates is not a big driver of property prices, too. See early 2000s, interest low also property prices also never moves much. Sentiment is what drives property prices.

As I said, recent changes not sudden. Been evolving. Only perceptions changed suddenly. Financial sectors will be affected. First thing banks do in downturn is headcount freeze. Following by layoffs. Standard Operating Procedures of "Hire and Fire" HR policy for US banks.

Private banking will be affected too. Citi SG Wealth Mgt recently said SG private banking hiring is a bubble. From my experience, when biz climate turns bad, biz/HNWIs always pulls money from investments to fund their biz.

Tech & Pharma not doing well also. Only ones are construction and transportation. But job creation in construction been only for low-end foreign workers.

Abt MM/PM comments, I think they are counting on construction/tpt to hold up the economy. Which probably will. But the benefits will not be spread around. MM/PP also need to do sales talk. They are selling Singapore as an investment destination. Cannot be too negative if not Singaporeans will pull back spending.

When asset prices falls, the leveraged players (share margin, DPS and high LTV mortgages) will be affected. Just need a few weaker players to kickoff the fall. I guess people are quite asset-heavy since the "cash is trash" period back in Aug 07.

Anyway, it is always been boom/bust cycles. This may be only mid-cycle correction in a longer, secular boom. The question is if can survive the punches. Need to stay in game to play.

"The key to prosperity is the ability to survive the next downturn" YK Pao.

interesting to see the next few months...overall, i am not so pessimistic in 2008 considering most of these following factors are relatively certain...

factors in favour of GDP growth in singapore:
construction (IRs plus MRT and other construction projects underway; big factor);
tourism (F1, new T3 at Changi, higher hotel room rates all should help growth in this sector);
investment banking (GIC and Temasek deals should keep local pipeline OK to avoid major local job losses; may see some smaller deals and debt refinancing later this year especially if rates stay low; FOREX desks should also do well);
consumer spending (enough projects will TOP that local industries such as furniture, home improvements, etc. will hold steady; also, population has grown since 2006 and 1.6% unemployment has created wage inflation so this should provide a solid base for consumer spending....we will not see major retrenchment effects until at least 2009)

factors that may pull down GDP growth:
electronics (exports will certainly suffer)
pharma and biotech (may see pullback in R&D spend and hiring slump)
inflation (petrol and food prices may sap growth from other discretionary purchases)

factors that could go either way:
shipping (PSA volume should hold steady in 2008 but may slip in 09 if global conditions weaken);
private banking (should not shrink in 2008 but may not grow so fast);
oil and chemicals (unsure as dont know much about this industry);
capital spending (cheap borrowing rates create negative real interest rates so some companies may look to expand overseas or invest in projects to increase efficiency to offset decline in home markets; however other companies may put expansion plans on hold)

another question is whether singapore rising currency attract foreign capital looking for defensive destination (esp. as now more difficult for USD to get into RMB).

for residential, the scary question is whether we will become more like Hong Kong (higher highs, lower lows, and VERY volatile)...

good summary of factors affecting SG economy.

I think inv banking is dead for next 1 yr. If financing is an issue, little deals will get done. asset values and yield not moving up, negative interest rates also no use. Maybe inv bankers will still fly around acting busy to keep their jobs.

Volatile mkts is bad for investment. Esp leveraged inv.

Global property prices had been bouyed by bull stock mkts and itself. All symptoms of dirt-cheap financing/liquidity. Funny to say stock mkts not affecting property prices. I thot the stock mkt-property positive correleration is generally accepted. If people did not make tons of money in stock mkts, you think they will go around snapping up GCBs? I think so too. A lot of stock speculators i know of engaged in property speculation too Especially the sesdaq stocks, some who make a killing last june/july hopped onto property market.

Anyway, it is always been boom/bust cycles. This may be only mid-cycle correction in a longer, secular boom. The question is if can survive the punches. Need to stay in game to play. This has always been my principle. Need to stay alife to make more. I guess it is more apparant for those who trade heavily in the stock market. u can be right a hundred times, one wrong move and u are dead.

In my opinion, sentiment is the most impt factor too. If interest rate is so impt, shouldnt everyone rush into US property now? Looking at news and fundamentals there are as many bad points as good points, at the end of the day depends on what you want to read into.

During bad times, I always hear pple tell me singapore so small, 90+% of the population already have place to stay, highest in the world, who wants to buy place. Stay anywhere also same, singapore so small, easy to move around.

Buy penthouse psf cheaper than houses cause top floor wasted, juniper penthouse sold 900 psf in 2005, futura penthouse 600 psf in 04 or 05. Suddenly sentiment change everyone wants penthouse.

When mkt bad, visioncrest sell small units, but now big ones in demand.

A lot of things driven by sentiment and perception

V or U shaped movementfor global and SG economy??

V = lots of people died. asset dumped. when recovery, high returns in short period.

U = death by thousand cuts. early birds get stuck or killed. returns lower, eaten by interest expenses. CAGR also lower becoz of longer period.

BTW, what happen to Excelsvr? Seldom see him post already?

V or U shaped movementfor global and SG economy??

V = lots of people died. asset dumped. when recovery, high returns in short period.

U = death by thousand cuts. early birds get stuck or killed. returns lower, eaten by interest expenses. CAGR also lower becoz of longer period.

BTW, what happen to Excelsvr? Seldom see him post already?


Economy, hard to determine movement. Stock market, hard to say, always there are opportunities in different sector. Remember when mkt at a lull, plastics outperform. pockets of opportunities always, no need to read into the general economy.

Anyway now mkt so volatile. Last 10 min Hang seng sell down 800 pts and up 200 again. Will be volatile, see next week, whether SSEA will break up from resistance

probably because of this. still a trading mkt

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Societe Generale SA said it will seek
5.5 billion euros ($8.1 billion) in new capital after discovering
a case of trading fraud and taking further writedowns linked to
the U.S. subprime mortgage market crash.
The bank discovered last weekend that a trader in Paris had
secretly set up positions that will cost the company 4.9 billion
euros before tax, Societe Generale said in an e-mailed statement
today. The trader, who wasn't identified, went beyond permitted
limits on futures linked to European stock indexes.
Societe Generale will also take 2.05 billion euros in
writedowns related to credit market turbulence. The bank said it
will still make a profit of between 600 million euros and 800
million euros for 2007. An offer by Chairman Daniel Bouton to
resign was rejected by the board, the bank said.
Societe Generale yesterday fell 4.1 percent to 79.08 euros,
its lowest since May 2005, valuing the bank at 36 billion euros.
The shares have fallen 20 percent since the start of the year,
hurt by expectations of further writedowns.
The company said it plans to raise the capital by selling
shares in a rights offer underwritten by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and
Morgan Stanley.

CNA: Private property prices to grow more slowly amid market uncertainty

SINGAPORE : Private property prices will see slower growth in the first quarter of this year, amid the current upheaval in global financial markets and a possible US recession.

That is according to property consultants who said prices will be supported by rentals which will continue to climb higher this year.

There has been frenzied buying and selling in the financial markets, but according to consultants, that is not likely to be replicated in the property sector.

"What the uncertainty is doing is that it's keeping speculative investors at bay and injecting realism into the minds of potential genuine purchasers. So, we're unlikely to see the frenzied level of buying as we've seen in the first half of last year. So the net result is likely to keep price growth in check moving forward," said Tay Huey Ying, Research & Consultancy Director of Colliers International.

According to the latest numbers from the URA, the number of private residential properties transacted fell to 328 in December, after hitting a high of 1,800 units in August last year.

"We suspect there will be more choices available for new projects from second half of February right up to the March and April period. That's when I think we'll see continued demand spillover into the market, particularly onto the mass as well as mid-end projects," said Donald Han, MD of Cushman & Wakefield.

While that demand is expected to support prices in the mass market segment, property consultants said the current market turmoil may impact on the high-end segment.

Still, they believe that prices will hold up because of strong rentals.


"If you look at last year, rentals are expected to rise by as much as 40%. This year, we expect rents to go up by at least about 15-20 percent, so that would potentially provide a higher yield in terms of investing in Singapore residential property market," said Han.

Private property prices were up by about 30% last year. - CNA /ls

said before, need to watch vacancy and rentals yields. does not look good with slowdown and more TOPs projects.

BTW, URA/HDB releases 4Q07 price and rental data Friday evening (i think).

Economy, hard to determine movement. Stock market, hard to say, always there are opportunities in different sector. Remember when mkt at a lull, plastics outperform. pockets of opportunities always, no need to read into the general economy.



Yes. Agreed with you. Lousy stock and property mkt also can make money.

Global property prices had been bouyed by bull stock mkts and itself. All symptoms of dirt-cheap financing/liquidity. Funny to say stock mkts not affecting property prices. I thot the stock mkt-property positive correleration is generally accepted. If people did not make tons of money in stock mkts, you think they will go around snapping up GCBs?

Interest rates is not a big driver of property prices, too. See early 2000s, interest low also property prices also never moves much. Sentiment is what drives property prices.


It is the simplistic, but obvious argument to say property follows stocks. period. It assumes all wealth, stocks, property, are the same.

While I agree a rising stock market equates to a rising property market, and as investors do switch wealth from stocks to property. But I disagree on the downside. I realise I go against the grain in most people's thinking in this.

First, stock investors are basically all investors who can exit the market anytime. Property is dominated by end-users, who cannot and won't sell their homes to realise value. To maybe understand, look at psychology - A rising stock market creates the wealth/savings for people to venture into property as they get their downpayment. But then the buyer needs to assess their ability to pay - this is determined by fundamentals (economy, their wages = fundamentals), and cost of property (ie interest rate).
Secondly, the investment criteria is different. Stocks is short-mid term generally - Property is long-term. A person who buys stocks with 80-90% financing is an idiot. This is the norm for property (so for stocks, ability to pay long-term is never an issue, while for property this is essential). Stocks are volatile, can go up 30% many times in a year - property prices dont (normally). The property buyer hardly ever comes up with 100% cash now, while stocks is 100% cash. Stocks more linked to savings.

True, low interest rates does not necessarily boost property sales (as it is not the only criteria), but does boost affordability. But very high interest rates definitely is the killer for property. This is one reason people are defaulting on sub-prime (even tho historically, this rate is still not very hi).

This current crisis is SO far only minor. It is not a crash on the scale of 1987. In 1987 stocks crashed, property prices in US and UK did not follow (at least for 2 more years) as interest rates were cut. This is hardly a correllation. In fact, UK prices then rose. It finally fell in 89/90 as interest rates climbed. In the UK, rates hit 17% ! This is why many comment the Fed keeps fuelling asset/property bubbles as each time there's a crisis, they cut rates. And eventually, they kept this too low for too long creating the current crisis.
This does not mean we discount stock market totally - it is an indicator of fundamentals for the next few months or so, but is highly volatile. The 1997 crash in Asia was followed by high interest rates (US going well, did not cut rates).

Unfortunately for SG property, rates already low and may not fall much. Unlike HK, where rates have dropped from 5% to an expect level of 2% or so later this year. Hence, need to look at fundamentals in SG instead (not stocks). So my initial eye is on GDP figures as the leading indicator (tho others, wage growth, employment etc will matter later). This is so-so now.

The SG outlook is hard to predict for this year, as mentioned since August/subprime, I believe SG is in consolidation due to the big rise earlier, and stay relatively flat, with maybe some sectors/areas rising and some falling. But current data still does not indicate a crash is coming (as long as GDP is 4.5%+). Financial turbulence has lasted longer than thought, so recovery may only come in late 3Q now. By then, US economy will hopefully be clearer, as SG may become cheap compared with regional peers. In particular, HK still has good fundamentals plus falling, extremely negative interest rates. And its stock market fell 30% recently.

What about inflation? Won't people be tempted to get into [or remain in] property when they realise how bad inflation is getting in Singapore? When the real rate is probably at least 8%, and likely to rise substantially, do you really want to sell property? What will you do with the cash? You won't put it into shares!

^^
Inflation forms part of the economic fundamental. I'm not so sure on how important directly, possibly not much. But inflation does mean higher wage growth esp if economy has full employment. Eventually higher wages = higher property prices but not sure which will lead. Wage growth IS important on affordability.

It is also partly reflected in interest rate (if you use real interest rate). HK is clearly in negative interest rates (Bank deposits now 0.5%, inflation is 3.8%, ave mortgage rate is 3%). Apparently, this has never happened before as negative real rates refer often to deposit rate, with this rate previous low at 0% for mortgage rate (ie HK has a clear negative of 0.8% for mortgage, and -3.3% for deposit).

I think inflation is neutral or irrelevant for stocks - companies will increase prices and profits in line with inflation. Inflation (esp hi) tho is normally seen as bad tho, as normal economies (US, Europe) interest rates must go up - this is negative. High inflation eventually creates a bubble as things become overpriced and economy uncompetitive. Guess Hi inflation is associated with an economy 'out of control' so people fear it as govt may need to take drastic measure which leads to a hard landing.

Remember, tho, SG had property inflation of 30+% last year while CPI remained low. Hence consolidation as CPI inflation catches up. Obviously, if inflation accelerates and eats into value of property so making it 'more affordable', then property inflatoin will come again. Hence unsure if inflation makes +ve or -ve effect or when given earlier price rise. In HK it is also clearer as prices were flat in 2005/6, so inflation leads to higher property.

Property investment is usually leveraged. Financed with mortgage. Key assumption is rental income/wages is stable/increasing over term of mortgage.
Another way to look at it is property prices is capitalisation of its rental income.

When rental income or wages falls, property prices falls. Unless it is speculative (like seen in Aug 07), everyone looking for capital gains.
Now with no price growth, yields is more important. So if vacancy and rentals goes, prices will go.

And most people financing property with 80-90%. If there is any shakeout, these are the ones affected. Not those 50-60% financed.
The weakeest holders are those on DPS. Not even financed yet. If prices for later DPS projects (Rochester, Soliel, etc) just drop 20%, some buyers cannot get loans already without coming out more cash. Foreigners may just disappeared. How to find people in China and Indonesia.

Financial mkts affects real economy affects property mkts. Anyone who think the relationships only work on the uptrend, not downtrend, is only kidding themselves. Good example will be period before and after start of Asian Crisis.

Can talk until cows comes home. Also useless. Just see how in 2Q. Now everything is still in flux.
If everyone know it is game over, then it is too late to do anything.

Property investment is usually leveraged. Financed with mortgage. Key assumption is rental income/wages is stable/increasing over term of mortgage.
Another way to look at it is property prices is capitalisation of its rental income.

When rental income or wages falls, property prices falls. Unless it is speculative (like seen in Aug 07), everyone looking for capital gains.
Now with no price growth, yields is more important. So if vacancy and rentals goes, prices will go.

And most people financing property with 80-90%. If there is any shakeout, these are the ones affected. Not those 50-60% financed.
The weakeest holders are those on DPS. Not even financed yet. If prices for later DPS projects (Rochester, Soliel, etc) just drop 20%, some buyers cannot get loans already without coming out more cash. Foreigners may just disappeared. How to find people in China and Indonesia.

Financial mkts affects real economy affects property mkts. Anyone who think the relationships only work on the uptrend, not downtrend, is only kidding themselves. Good example will be period before and after start of Asian Crisis.

Can talk until cows comes home. Also useless. Just see how in 2Q. Now everything is still in flux.
If everyone know it is game over, then it is too late to do anything.

A lot of investors find it stress to invest, as they have not find the right hobby. If you enjoy trading stock, or futures or even warrants, as long you enjoy it, you are in the right investment tailor for you.

I enjoy investing in my company, properties & shares, and I have enjoy it since day 1. To me it is just the Money Game.:lol:

Look at how the market have climb back up as if nothing have happened. I think a lot of investors have been stopped out of their positions.

It is just a game.

BigBird72
Rental is an element, and an important element. But if you only just looked at yields, you'll never buy property. Yields were appalling low in SG in 2005/6, but this was a great time to buy. Often, capital values rise, dragging rents up.

If you follow the stock markets, then you'd sold and bought property several times over in the past few months ! I believe the assets held in property is several times over the amount in stocks - bb you do this calculation yourself - do you really own more in stocks than property ?

I'm saying there is not really going to be a property crash just coz stocks plummet. Stocks are just too volatile. Things to watch for for property are economic fundamentals and interest rates, not stock market. If economy turns out well, people will get their pay rises and jobs will be created and rental/capital values in property will be sustained. I'm not sure if economy is going to be great, so I'm neither saying this is a great time to buy. But with your doom, are you saying that SG is in recession now for sure and property will crash ? Or depends on what the STI says today ?

Yes, some 'weak' recent buyers may be in trouble later, but they can still be sitting on pretty gains later. And these weak speculators/buyers only represent a fraction of the overall market. The developments you mention won't top for a few years yet. In the meantime, the typical US recession last 2 quarters. So by July it could be all over (or April, if recession began 4q, or maybe US does not fall in recession). This 'recession' will truly be over by the time these developments top.
I'll be buying later this year if things are OK and if prices are off 20% for sure. :)

Financial mkts affects real economy affects property mkts. Anyone who think the relationships only work on the uptrend, not downtrend, is only kidding themselves. Good example will be period before and after start of Asian Crisis.

But this is not the Asian crisis, it is a US crisis. You will need to believe Europe, and China, will also fall into crisis. As mentioned, property rose following the 1987 crash in these markets. And after following 9/11 recession/stock market crash. Property rose in Asia in the early 90's at its fastest rate when Europe/US was in recession.

Prices of private residential, office, shop and industrial properties increased, by 6.8%, 8.0%, 3.4% and 6.0% respectively in the 4th Quarter 2007, bringing the overall increase from end-2006 to the end of 4th Quarter 2007 to 31.2%, 32.6%, 13.2% and 22.7% respectively.

Rentals of private residential, office, shop and industrial properties increased by 6.8%, 10.9%, 0.6% and 7.8% respectively in the 4th Quarter 2007, bringing the overall increase from end-2006 to the end of 4th Quarter 2007 to 41.2%, 56.1%, 18.2% and 32.0% respectively.

While prices and rentals have generally increased in 2007, the rate of increase in rentals for all properties and the rate of increase in prices for private residential and office properties have moderated in the 4th Quarter 2007 as compared to 3rd Quarter 2007. Supply is in the pipeline to meet demand over the next few years. For example, as at 4th Quarter 2007, there were 64,852 private residential units in the pipeline, comprising supply from projects that are already under construction and those that have been granted planning approval but are not under construction yet. For the office sector, there was a supply of about 1.42 million sq m Gross Floor Area (GFA) of office space from various Government and private land sources in the pipeline. Of these, 56,149 private residential units and 1.21 million sq m GFA of office space are expected to be completed between 2008 and 2011.

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES

Prices

Overall prices of private residential properties rose 6.8% in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared with the 8.3% increase in the previous quarter (see Annexes A-1a and B-1 & 2). From end-2006 to end-2007, the overall prices of private residential properties have increased by 31.2% (see Annex A-1b).

Prices of non-landed properties rose 7.2% in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared with the 8.3% increase in the previous quarter. Prices of apartments rose 7.5% while those of condominiums rose 7.2%. For the year 2007 as a whole, prices of non-landed properties rose 32.6%.

Prices of non-landed properties in Core Central Region1 (CCR) rose 7.5% in the 4th Quarter 2007, while prices of non-landed properties in Rest of Central Region2 (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) rose by 7.7% and 7.0% respectively (see Annex A-2). For the whole of 2007, prices of non-landed properties rose by 32.7% in CCR, 30.4% in RCR and 26.4% in OCR.

Prices of landed properties rose 4.2% in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared with the 7.5% increase in the previous quarter. For the year 2007 as a whole, prices of landed properties rose 23.4%. Prices of detached, semi-detached and terrace houses rose 5.0%, 3.9% and 3.5% respectively in the 4th Quarter 2007.

The prices of private residential properties are not uniform and vary from project to project. Home-buyers can view the data on individual uncompleted private residential projects at the following url: http://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/Price.jsp. From the database, it can be seen that there are a number of uncompleted private residential projects in the suburban areas with prices at a more affordable level. There are also a number of projects with a significant number of units that have not been sold yet.

Besides the data on the sale of uncompleted units direct from developers, home-buyers can also access information on all private residential property transactions on URA’s website at the following url: http://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/Transaction.jsp. This database, which is based on caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority (SLA), contains comprehensive information on the prices and floor areas of the units.

Rentals

Rentals of private residential properties3 rose 6.8% in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared with the 11.4% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A-3a). From end-2006 to end-2007, the overall rentals of private residential properties have increased by 41.2% (see Annex A-3b).

Rentals of non-landed properties in CCR rose 5.3% in the 4th Quarter 2007. Rentals of non-landed properties in RCR and OCR rose 8.8% and 8.5% respectively (see Annexes A-3a & 4). For the whole of 2007, rentals of non-landed housing rose by 42.3% in CCR, 47.0% in RCR and 41.9% in OCR.

In addition, URA also released data on the 25th percentile, median and 75th percentile rentals for individual private residential projects for 4th Quarter 20074. This data would help the public make better informed decisions related to the renting of private housing. The data on the rentals of individual private residential projects is available in URA’s website at the following url: http://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/rental.jsp.

Supply in the Pipeline

As at the end of 4th Quarter 2007, there was a total supply of 64,852 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline5(see Annex F). Of these, 38,260 units were still unsold. These comprised 2,063 units that had been launched for sale by developers and 7,099 units which had the pre-requisite conditions for sale and could be launched for sale immediately. The remaining 29,098 units with planning approvals did not have the pre-requisite conditions for sale. However, the pre-requisite approvals for sale, i.e. sale license from the Controller of Housing and Building Plan approval from the Building and Construction Authority (BCA) could be obtained quite quickly and these units could be made available for sale quite soon, if the developers choose to do so6 (see Annex C-1).

Of the 64,852 units, 56,149 units are expected to be completed between the 2008 and 2011, of which 29,722 units are already under construction7. Details of the supply in the pipeline in the 3 locations are given in Annex C-2.

In addition, supply will also come from the sites made available by the Government in the 1st Half 2008 Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme, which can yield about 8,250 new units. When sold, the supply from these sites can be made available for sale within the next one year or so. The Government will also inject additional supply in the 2nd Half 2008 GLS Programme if necessary.

Apart from the additional supply from GLS sites, there will also be additional supply from new private residential developments on private land which will be coming in for planning approval, including those on sites where the existing developments have been sold en-bloc. This will further increase the number of units that can be made available for sale in the next few years.

Launches and Take-up

A total of 1,686 uncompleted private residential units were launched for sale by developers in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared with the 3,709 units launched in the 3rd Quarter 2007. Of the 1,686 uncompleted units launched in the quarter, 532 units were in CCR, 691 units were in RCR, and 463 units were in OCR (see Annex D-1). Major residential projects launched in the quarter included Park Natura at Bukit Batok East Avenue 6 (192 units), Amber Residences at Amber Road (114 units) and Casa Fortuna at Jalan Rajah (106 units). For the whole of 2007, 14,016 uncompleted units were launched by developers for sale.

During the 4th Quarter 2007, 1,397 uncompleted private residential units were sold by developers, compared with the 3,367 units sold in the 3rd Quarter 2007. Of the 1,397 uncompleted units sold in the quarter, 418 units were in CCR, 554 units were in RCR, and 425 units were in OCR (see Annex D-2). Developers also sold 52 completed private residential units in the 4th Quarter 2007. For the whole of 2007, developers sold a total of 14,149 uncompleted units and 662 completed units.

Sub-sales

The total number of sub-sales fell to 513 in 4th Quarter 2007, compared to 1,474 sub-sales in the previous quarter. In percentage terms, sub-sales accounted for 10.7% of all sale transactions in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared to 14.4% in the 3rd Quarter 2007. The number of sub-sales in CCR in the 4th Quarter 2007 accounted for 18.6% of the property sale transactions in this area in the quarter, compared to 24.8% in the previous quarter. The percentages of sub-sales in the 4th Quarter 2007 for RCR, at 12.3% and OCR, at 5.1% were lower than the corresponding percentages of 15.8% and 6.1% in the previous quarter (see Annex E).

Stock and Vacancy

A total of 2,452 private residential units were completed (granted TOP) in the 4th Quarter 2007. Major residential projects completed in the quarter were Citylights at Jellicoe Road (600 units), The Calrose at Yio Chu Kang Road (421 units) and Blossoms @ Woodleigh at Woodleigh Close (240 units).

The vacancy rate of completed private residential units was 5.6% as at the end of 4th Quarter 2007, compared with 5.4% as at the end of the previous quarter (see Annex F).

Executive Condominiums

As at the end of 4th Quarter 2007, there were 444 units of Executive Condominiums (EC) in the pipeline, all of which were under construction (see Annex G-2). All the 444 units had been issued with sale licenses and building plan approvals (i.e. pre-requisites for sale) and had been launched for sale. Of these, 400 units had been sold.

The total stock of completed EC units remained unchanged at 9,986 units as at the end of 4th Quarter 2007. As at the end of 4th Quarter 2007, the vacancy rate was 1.0%, compared with the vacancy rate of 0.8% as at the end of the previous quarter.

OFFICE SPACE

Rentals

Rentals for office space in Singapore increased by 10.9% in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared with the 14.8% in the 3rd Quarter 2007 (see Annex A-3a). From end-2006 to the end-2007, the rentals for office space have increased by 56.1%.

The median rental for “Category 1”8 office space, based on leases which had commenced, was S$12.18 per square foot per month (psf pm) in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared to the median rental of S$10.95 psf pm in the 3rd Quarter 2007. In comparison, the median rental for “Category 2”9 office space was S$5.68 psf pm in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared to the S$5.14 psf pm in the 3rd Quarter 2007 (see Annex A-5). As shown, the rentals for “Category 2” office space were much lower than “Category 1” office space. As “Category 2” office space accounts for about 80% of all office space in Singapore, the rental for such space is more reflective of the typical rental paid by office tenants in Singapore. These statistics were compiled based on IRAS’ records of rental contracts in Singapore where the leases had commenced in the 4th Quarter 2007.

The median rentals for “Category 1” and “Category 2” office space based on rental contracts signed in the 4th Quarter 2007 were S$13.31 and S$5.85 psf pm respectively (see Annex A-5). These statistics were compiled based on IRAS’ records of rental contracts which were signed in the reference quarter, regardless of whether or not the leases commenced in the reference quarter10.
Prices

Prices of office space rose 8.0% in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared with the 8.1% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A-1a). From end-2006 to the end-2007, the prices of office space have increased by 32.6%.

Supply in the Pipeline

As at the end of the 4th Quarter 2007, there was a total supply of about 1.42 million sq m GFA of office space in the pipeline. This includes the office space that will be built on awarded GLS and transitional office sites. The former includes Marina Bay Financial Centre (Phase 1 and 211) (325,000 sq m), Marina View Land Parcel A and B (205,000 sq m), South Beach at Beach Road / Middle Road (71,000 sq m) and 2 sites at Anson Road (59,000 sq m). The transitional office sites are those at Scotts Road, Tampines Concourse and Mountbatten Road which in total can generate up to 47,200 sqm of transitional office space. Of the total pipeline supply of office space, about 1.21 million sqm were expected to be completed between 2008 and 2011.

In addition, about 500,000 sq m of commercial space12, most of which can be for office use, could come from sites to be made available via the 1st Half 2008 GLS Programme as well as from new transitional office sites and vacant State properties that will be made available in the coming months. These sites will be tendered out and developed according to market demand.

Apart from office space, as at the end of the 4th Quarter 2007, there was a total supply of 447,000 sq m of business park space from projects in the pipeline13 from Government and private land sources which were expected to be completed between 2008 and 2011. This includes 74,660 sq m of business park space from a business park development at Changi Business Park which was granted planning approval for development in the 4th Quarter 2007. Business park space can meet the office needs of some firms, e.g. backroom operations of companies.

Stock and Vacancy

The amount of occupied office space increased by 12,000 sq m (nett) in the 4th Quarter 2007, lower than the increase of 60,000 sq m in the 3rd Quarter 2007. A total of 11,200 sq m of office space were completed (granted TOP) in the 4th Quarter 2007.

The island-wide vacancy rate of office space was 7.3% as at the end of 4th Quarter 2007, unchanged from that as at the end of 3rd Quarter 2007. The vacancy rate for “Category 1” office space as at the end of 4th Quarter 2007 was 2.1%, compared to the 2.8% as at the end of 3rd Quarter 2007. The vacancy rate for “Category 2” office space as at the end of 4th Quarter 2007 was 8.4%, unchanged from that as at the end of 3rd Quarter 2007 (see Annex A-5).

SHOP SPACE

Rentals

The overall rentals for shop space in Singapore, based on leases which had commenced, increased by 0.6% in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared with the 8.1% increase in the 3rd Quarter 2007. From end-2006 to the end-2007, the overall rentals for shop space have increased by 18.2%. The median rental for shop space in the Orchard Planning Area (Orchard), Rest of City Area (RCA)14 and Outside City Area (OCA) were S$10.39, S$6.52 and S$5.43 psf pm respectively in the 4th Quarter 2007 (see Annex A-5). These statistics were compiled based on IRAS’ records of rental contracts in Singapore where the leases commenced in the 4th Quarter 2007.

The median rentals for shop space in Orchard, RCA and OCA based on all rental contracts signed in the 4th Quarter 2007, regardless of whether or not the leases commenced in the quarter, were S$10.30, S$6.67 and S$5.42 psf pm respectively (see Annex A-5).

Prices

Prices of shop space rose 3.4% in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared with the 3.0% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A-1a). From end-2006 to the end-2007, the prices of shop space have increased by 13.2%.

Supply in the Pipeline

As at the end of the 4th Quarter 2007, there was a total supply of 556,000 sq m GFA of shop space from projects in the pipeline15, from Government and private land sources. This includes the shop space from new projects which were granted planning approval for development in the 4th Quarter 2007 such as the MBFC Phase 2 at Marina Boulevard (5,500 sq m). Of the total pipeline supply of shop space, about 547,000 sq m were expected to be completed between 2008 and 2011.

Stock and Vacancy

The amount of occupied shop space increased by 1,000 sq m (nett) in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared with a decrease of 12,000 sq m in the 3rd Quarter 2007. A total of 5,300 sq m of shop space were completed (granted TOP) in the 4th Quarter 2007.

The vacancy rate of shop space was 7.2% as at the end of 4th Quarter 2007, compared with 7.7% as at the end of 3rd Quarter 2007. The vacancy rates for shop space in Orchard, RCA and OCA as at the end of 4th Quarter 2007 were 4.3%, 7.8% and 7.4% respectively. In comparison, the vacancy rates for shop space in Orchard, RCA and OCA as at the end of 3rd Quarter 2007 were 3.6%, 8.3% and 8.1% respectively (see Annex A-5).

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

Prices and Rentals

Prices of multiple-user factory space rose 6.2% in the 4th Quarter 2007, compared with the 3.1% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A-1a). Rentals of multiple-user factory space increased by 8.7%, compared with the 10.7% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A-3a). From end-2006 to the end of 4th Quarter 2007, the prices and rentals of multiple-user factory space have increased by 23.0% and 33.5% respectively.

Supply in the Pipeline

As at the end of the 4th Quarter 2007, there was a total supply of 3.16 million sq m GFA of factory space from projects in the pipeline16, from Government and private land sources, all of which were expected to be completed between 2008 and 2011.

Stock and Vacancy

The amount of occupied factory space increased by 126,000 sq m (nett) in the 4th Quarter 2007, lower than the increase of 373,000 sq m in the 3rd Quarter 2007. A total of 92,700 sq m of factory space were completed (granted TOP) in the 4th Quarter 2007.

The vacancy rate of factory space declined by 0.2 percentage point to 8.2% as at the end of 4th Quarter 2007.

URA’s REAL ESTATE INFORMATION SERVICE

More detailed information on the price and rental indices, supply in the pipeline, stock and vacancy position of the various properties can be found in the Real Estate Information System (REALIS), an online database of URA.

Subscribers of REALIS can obtain the information from the system after 12.30 pm today. More information on REALIS can be found at http://spring.ura.gov.sg/lad/ore/login/index.cfm. You can also contact the REALIS hotline at 6329 3456.

BigBird72
Rental is an element, and an important element. But if you only just looked at yields, you'll never buy property. Yields were appalling low in SG in 2005/6, but this was a great time to buy. Often, capital values rise, dragging rents up.

If you follow the stock markets, then you'd sold and bought property several times over in the past few months ! I believe the assets held in property is several times over the amount in stocks - bb you do this calculation yourself - do you really own more in stocks than property ?

I'm saying there is not really going to be a property crash just coz stocks plummet. Stocks are just too volatile. Things to watch for for property are economic fundamentals and interest rates, not stock market. If economy turns out well, people will get their pay rises and jobs will be created and rental/capital values in property will be sustained. I'm not sure if economy is going to be great, so I'm neither saying this is a great time to buy. But with your doom, are you saying that SG is in recession now for sure and property will crash ? Or depends on what the STI says today ?

Yes, some 'weak' recent buyers may be in trouble later, but they can still be sitting on pretty gains later. And these weak speculators/buyers only represent a fraction of the overall market. The developments you mention won't top for a few years yet. In the meantime, the typical US recession last 2 quarters. So by July it could be all over (or April, if recession began 4q, or maybe US does not fall in recession). This 'recession' will truly be over by the time these developments top.
I'll be buying later this year if things are OK and if prices are off 20% for sure. :)

Not saying look at yields only. When there is no price growth, people will look at yields more. If yields is dropping and unstable AND no price growth, then hold for what.

As I said, things still in flux. Need time for everything to play out. What I am guess is one of the possible scenarios. All factors are all inter-related and reinforcing and with time lag. Not linear cause and effect. Thats the markets. Thats make it interesting.

BTW, same old poot-poot still there in US and Europe. Take time to clear the type of shit. Asian Crisis also play out over 1 yr plus. A lot of people got killed financially. 2 quarters of shakeouts enough already..

Yes, this is not Asian Crisis. This is Global credit crisis. If corporations cannot borrow/refinance money, economy how to grow?
Globalisation is one factor that pushes up prime SG prop prices, globalisation may take it down. Where got asymmetrically relationship? If like that, global funds will all show hands on SG prime properties already...

OK. DC and Annual Values going up next year. If not, Chief Valuer Bo Cho Kang...hahha

With this morning's announcement by Transport Minister dont you feel the recent dark clouds is beginning to clear?Property developers and enbloc agents are frantically recceing with their scouts.The advance party has been mobilised.

As I said, things still in flux. Need time for everything to play out.

Agree :)
Schtaw posted URA figures. Rents went up exactly the same amount as value (6.8%). I think landlords determine rents (based on value), but in downturn, guess tenants have power.
Vacancy weakend very slightly to 5.6% fm 5.4%. Still strong market tho weakening a bit. I think beloe 8% is good, above 13% bad (personal opinion). However, URA often behind and this is a lag indicator - only when GDP bad will jobs go and vacancy rise.

With this morning's announcement by Transport Minister dont you feel the recent dark clouds is beginning to clear?Property developers and enbloc agents are frantically recceing with their scouts.The advance party has been mobilised.

Shit.. what news???

Shit.. what news???

Two new lines to double network length to 278km by 2020; first stage of Circle Line to open next year

IN what could well be Singapore's most aggressive public transport infrastructure plans ever, the Government is spending $40 billion to double the MRT network by 2020.

By then, Singapore will have 278km of rail link, from 138km today. Its network density will rise from 31km per million residents today to 51km per million - surpassing what Hong Kong and Tokyo has today and comparable to current densities in places like New York and London.

Announcing these targets on Friday as part of a sweeping Land Transport Review, Transport Minister Raymond Lim said two new lines will be built - barely nine months after he gave the go-ahead to the $12 billion 40km Downtown Line.

One, the Thomson Line, runs to the left of and almost parallel to the North-east Line. It is 27km long and links Marina Bay in the south to Woodlands in the north. To be completed in 2018, it will have 18 stations, in places such as Ang Mo Kio, Kebun Baru, Sin Ming, Thomson and Kim Seng.

The other is the Eastern Region Line, which is a southern loop of the Downtown Line's eastern wing. It is 21km long and links Marina Bay to Changi. This line has 12 stops in places such as Tanjong Rhu, Siglap, Bedok South and Marine Parade, and is scheduled for completion in 2020.

'We expect our rail network to carry three times as many journeys, rising from today's 1.4 million a day to 4.6 million in 2020,' Mr Lim said.

Existing MRT lines will also be lengthened. The North South Line will dip towards Marina South, with one station, and should be ready by 2015. Elsewhere, the East West Line will go west to serve the Tuas Industrial Estate. Also to be ready in 2015, it is 14km long and dotted with five stations.

More immediately though, Mr Lim said residents can look forward to riding one stage of the Circle Line from middle of next year. This stage is a five-station section linking Bartley to Marymount, with interchanges at Serangoon and Bishan.

Completion of the Downtown Line has also been brought forward by two years to 2016.

These accelerated plans are just the beginning. Minister Lim revealed that the Government will be working towards a new financing framework for rail infrastructure that will see future lines being built sooner. Instead of assessing the viability of new lines in isolation, the Government will now evaluate its contribution to the entire network. As such, future MRT projects could be implemented 'a few years earlier... so long as the entire rail network remains viable'.

Like changes he announced for buses last week, the minister said the Government will introduce more competition to the rail industry. Operating contracts will be 10 to 15 years long, instead of the current 30-year tenures. This is to keep the operators on their toes so that they keep service standards high.

In line with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's promise that no one would be left behind, accessibility to wheelchairs and prams will likewise be speeded up. By 2010, access to MRT stations, taxi and bus shelters will be barrier free within a 400m radius. Because there are 4,500 bus-stops here, practically all walkways will be accessible to the handicapped, elderly and those using baby prams.

And by 2010, 40 per cent of public buses will be wheelchair accessible, with the rest to follow by 2020.

The minister took the opportunity to announce other transport-related initiatives during a visit to the Kim Chuan MRT Depot on Friday morning. These include:

• July: A single telephone number for booking a cab.

• March: Six-month trial for foldable bicycles to be allowed onboard MRT trains during off-peak periods.

• Next year: Better bicycle parking facilities at MRT stations, starting with Tampines and Pasir Ris.

• March: Road signs warning motorists of cyclists in popular bicycle routes.

• 2014: All taxis to meet Euro IV emission standards.

• 2020: All buses to meet Euro IV emission standards.

On what commuters can look forward to in the coming years, Mr Lim said: 'By 2020, people who live or work in the city and those who shop and find enjoyment there will be able to reach an MRT station within 400 metres on average, a mere five-minute walk.

'Travelling across the city will be a breeze, because we will have a dense network of MRT stations like what we see in London and New York today.'

He added: 'With a vast rail network and a bus network that works in partnership with rail, commuters will have fast and reliable connections that bring them where they want to go. A gamut of transport choices including premium buses, taxis and cycling among others, will enable different needs to be met.'

The Minister said as society evolves and people's needs change, Singapore's land transport offerings must keep pace as well as encompass the diversity of needs and aspirations.

'To achieve this, we will plan our land transport system around people, not the other way round. This then will be our touchstone in the planning of land transport policies going forward,' he promised.

3 big local news recently.Housing,Health and Transport.

A.MBT.More HDB Flats
B.KBW.Means Testing.
C.RL.MRT lines to double.100 new train stations.
And the finale....mother of all news.
D.LSL.Budget news


I thought bigbird fly high high.Sharp eyes.Slacking heh...

3 big local news recently.Housing,Health and Transport.

A.MBT.More HDB Flats
B.KBW.Means Testing.
C.RL.MRT lines to double.100 new train stations.
And the finale....mother of all news.
D.LSL.Budget news


I thought bigbird fly high high.Sharp eyes.Slacking heh...

Seldom read SG news.

100 new stations. everywhere also got MRT liao...

Always thot that Downtown Line 3 is a "Downturn" Line. Govt turning up fiscal spending...

Good time to open foldable bicycle shops.Or invest in some sort of electronic tags on bicycles to trace if stolen.

C.RL.MRT lines to double.100 new train stations.

massive injection into the economy to start soon???

costs of car ownership will go up soon.

ERP rates sure go up.The day of $10 ERP has arrived.Looking at paying ERP to go to Marine Parade for shopping.

I'm sure the plot ratios of areas around Thomson Line and Eastern Line has been worked out.So dont wait for June.Now is the time to cheong if you've got the bullets sub prime scam or no subprime.What happen to HK when the gahment announce MTR extension to the Western region?The ppty there skyrocketed.But knowing Sgreans we are always one step behind.When the whole herd cheong then all cheong.Sg is you move first then I move.

I'm sure the plot ratios of areas around Thomson Line and Eastern Line has been worked out.So dont wait for June.Now is the time to cheong if you've got the bullets sub prime scam or no subprime.What happen to HK when the gahment announce MTR extension to the Western region?The ppty there skyrocketed.But knowing Sgreans we are always one step behind.When the whole herd cheong then all cheong.Sg is you move first then I move.
r there maps of these lines? couldn't find ....

Marine Parade Line easiest to guess. Along Marine Parade Rd- Upp East Coast.

Anyway, got 10 yrs more to go. Most people dont have patience and holding power to hold non-performing assets for 10 yrs.

Good time to open foldable bicycle shops.Or invest in some sort of electronic tags on bicycles to trace if stolen.

Who will carry that bulky foldable bicycle around with his hands ? Does the minister ever carry that himself ? This is an idiot idea, could jam up the entrance, escalator, and door of the MRT train if some idiot carry that thing around. I have one and I know how heavy it is even I picked the lightest and expensive one made of aluminium than steel. It's always behind my car boot as I didn't bother to carry it in and out.

Marine Parade Line easiest to guess. Along Marine Parade Rd- Upp East Coast.

Anyway, got 10 yrs more to go. Most people dont have patience and holding power to hold non-performing assets for 10 yrs.

Indeed, speculating the property around the MRT line to go up by 10-20% right now is really too early. Even when they started the construction, do you want to buy at that point of time when the inconvenience, the dusty messy surrounding, possibility of crack on the wall for those near the underground tunnel ?

Seldom read SG news.

100 new stations. everywhere also got MRT liao...

Always thot that Downtown Line 3 is a "Downturn" Line. Govt turning up fiscal spending...

I still don't understand why they called this Downtown line 3 even if it's just connected to the new downtown ? I thought all the existing and new lines are connected to Downtown anyway ?

Indeed, speculating the property around the MRT line to go up by 10-20% right now is really too early. Even when they started the construction, do you want to buy at that point of time when the inconvenience, the dusty messy surrounding, possibility of crack on the wall for those near the underground tunnel ?

With 100 station, I bet 50% of all Singapore residentials are within 5-10 min walk to MRT.:lol:

Everyone already expect 10% price rises in the News. I think it is safer to just buy near existing MRT.

Tiny Singapore with 100 stations. I think our leader are gutsy. 2 thumbs up.:)

Who will carry that bulky foldable bicycle around with his hands ? Does the minister ever carry that himself ? This is an idiot idea, could jam up the entrance, escalator, and door of the MRT train if some idiot carry that thing around. I have one and I know how heavy it is even I picked the lightest and expensive one made of aluminium than steel. It's always behind my car boot as I didn't bother to carry it in and out.


How about using titanium from recycled old planes.

http://sg.88db.com/sg/Services/Post_Detail.page/sports_recreation/Sports_Equipment_Sales_Rental/?PostID=94099

Lightest I can find is 5.5kg. I do not mind pulling it around like a stroller. But the load weight is 75-85kg Maximum. I need to lost some weight before I can use one.

http://sg.88db.com/sg/Services/Post_Detail.page/sports_recreation/Sports_Equipment_Sales_Rental/?PostID=94099

Lightest I can find is 5.5kg. I do not mind pulling it around like a stroller. But the load weight is 75-85kg Maximum. I need to lost some weight before I can use one.

http://88db.com/sg/Services/Post_Detail.page/sports_recreation/Sports_Equipment_Sales_Rental/?PostID=94099


The wheel so small, paddle 1 round probably run 1 feet ...good for exercise !
Cycle 1 km, shed & lie flat on the ground....only good for down slope, up hill - die liao !

It is the simplistic, but obvious argument to say property follows stocks. period. It assumes all wealth, stocks, property, are the same.

While I agree a rising stock market equates to a rising property market, and as investors do switch wealth from stocks to property. But I disagree on the downside. I realise I go against the grain in most people's thinking in this.

First, stock investors are basically all investors who can exit the market anytime. Property is dominated by end-users, who cannot and won't sell their homes to realise value. To maybe understand, look at psychology - A rising stock market creates the wealth/savings for people to venture into property as they get their downpayment. But then the buyer needs to assess their ability to pay - this is determined by fundamentals (economy, their wages = fundamentals), and cost of property (ie interest rate).
Secondly, the investment criteria is different. Stocks is short-mid term generally - Property is long-term. A person who buys stocks with 80-90% financing is an idiot. This is the norm for property (so for stocks, ability to pay long-term is never an issue, while for property this is essential). Stocks are volatile, can go up 30% many times in a year - property prices dont (normally). The property buyer hardly ever comes up with 100% cash now, while stocks is 100% cash. Stocks more linked to savings.

True, low interest rates does not necessarily boost property sales (as it is not the only criteria), but does boost affordability. But very high interest rates definitely is the killer for property. This is one reason people are defaulting on sub-prime (even tho historically, this rate is still not very hi).

This current crisis is SO far only minor. It is not a crash on the scale of 1987. In 1987 stocks crashed, property prices in US and UK did not follow (at least for 2 more years) as interest rates were cut. This is hardly a correllation. In fact, UK prices then rose. It finally fell in 89/90 as interest rates climbed. In the UK, rates hit 17% ! This is why many comment the Fed keeps fuelling asset/property bubbles as each time there's a crisis, they cut rates. And eventually, they kept this too low for too long creating the current crisis.
This does not mean we discount stock market totally - it is an indicator of fundamentals for the next few months or so, but is highly volatile. The 1997 crash in Asia was followed by high interest rates (US going well, did not cut rates).

Unfortunately for SG property, rates already low and may not fall much. Unlike HK, where rates have dropped from 5% to an expect level of 2% or so later this year. Hence, need to look at fundamentals in SG instead (not stocks). So my initial eye is on GDP figures as the leading indicator (tho others, wage growth, employment etc will matter later). This is so-so now.

The SG outlook is hard to predict for this year, as mentioned since August/subprime, I believe SG is in consolidation due to the big rise earlier, and stay relatively flat, with maybe some sectors/areas rising and some falling. But current data still does not indicate a crash is coming (as long as GDP is 4.5%+). Financial turbulence has lasted longer than thought, so recovery may only come in late 3Q now. By then, US economy will hopefully be clearer, as SG may become cheap compared with regional peers. In particular, HK still has good fundamentals plus falling, extremely negative interest rates. And its stock market fell 30% recently.

^^
Inflation forms part of the economic fundamental. I'm not so sure on how important directly, possibly not much. But inflation does mean higher wage growth esp if economy has full employment. Eventually higher wages = higher property prices but not sure which will lead. Wage growth IS important on affordability.

It is also partly reflected in interest rate (if you use real interest rate). HK is clearly in negative interest rates (Bank deposits now 0.5%, inflation is 3.8%, ave mortgage rate is 3%). Apparently, this has never happened before as negative real rates refer often to deposit rate, with this rate previous low at 0% for mortgage rate (ie HK has a clear negative of 0.8% for mortgage, and -3.3% for deposit).

I think inflation is neutral or irrelevant for stocks - companies will increase prices and profits in line with inflation. Inflation (esp hi) tho is normally seen as bad tho, as normal economies (US, Europe) interest rates must go up - this is negative. High inflation eventually creates a bubble as things become overpriced and economy uncompetitive. Guess Hi inflation is associated with an economy 'out of control' so people fear it as govt may need to take drastic measure which leads to a hard landing.

Remember, tho, SG had property inflation of 30+% last year while CPI remained low. Hence consolidation as CPI inflation catches up. Obviously, if inflation accelerates and eats into value of property so making it 'more affordable', then property inflatoin will come again. Hence unsure if inflation makes +ve or -ve effect or when given earlier price rise. In HK it is also clearer as prices were flat in 2005/6, so inflation leads to higher property.

Stocks should NOT affect property market. Interest rates and economy most important.
I still don't think market will fall much, however my view has become more negative as some of the recent changes have been very sudden - in particular, will be watching GDP figures closely. Also, interest rates have been low for a long time in SG, and have not fallen, and are unlikely to fall as much as US and HK (now 2.75-3%, with maybe 2% end of this year). I really think any crash now is really unlikely. I also don't think that many banking jobs are at risk (apart fm bonds) and a large part of financial in SG is now private banking, which won't be affected. At worst, I think banks may not expand.
If economy is OK-ish, market will rise towards the end of this year. This may be more due to HK (and other Asia) rising and SG catching up after its period of consolidation following last year's rise. And by then, hopefully US also in a better shape.

BigBird72
Rental is an element, and an important element. But if you only just looked at yields, you'll never buy property. Yields were appalling low in SG in 2005/6, but this was a great time to buy. Often, capital values rise, dragging rents up.

If you follow the stock markets, then you'd sold and bought property several times over in the past few months ! I believe the assets held in property is several times over the amount in stocks - bb you do this calculation yourself - do you really own more in stocks than property ?

I'm saying there is not really going to be a property crash just coz stocks plummet. Stocks are just too volatile. Things to watch for for property are economic fundamentals and interest rates, not stock market. If economy turns out well, people will get their pay rises and jobs will be created and rental/capital values in property will be sustained. I'm not sure if economy is going to be great, so I'm neither saying this is a great time to buy. But with your doom, are you saying that SG is in recession now for sure and property will crash ? Or depends on what the STI says today ?

Yes, some 'weak' recent buyers may be in trouble later, but they can still be sitting on pretty gains later. And these weak speculators/buyers only represent a fraction of the overall market. The developments you mention won't top for a few years yet. In the meantime, the typical US recession last 2 quarters. So by July it could be all over (or April, if recession began 4q, or maybe US does not fall in recession). This 'recession' will truly be over by the time these developments top.
I'll be buying later this year if things are OK and if prices are off 20% for sure. :)

:okay::applause::righton:

MV: U & I think 99% alike.

U literally take words out of my mouth...

Maybe I was fr HK in my last life! Cheers!

anyone notice the developers are advertising a lot more these days. Last year, no need to advertise, properties already sold out.

For example, The Rochester only got 27 units left in Dec 07. Also advertise 1 full page color ad on this Sat's papers.

anyone notice the developers are advertising a lot more these days. Last year, no need to advertise, properties already sold out.

For example, The Rochester only got 27 units left in Dec 07. Also advertise 1 full page color ad on this Sat's papers.

I thought the ad was for office.

I thought the ad was for office.

Is it? But got "Deferred Payment Scheme Available" printed.

You're indeed right, it's the residences. Surprise there are remaining units, as I thought it was hot when launched in July last year. Must be lots of returned units. I've always thought this property had been sold too expensive but yet people grap like no tomorrow at that time.:nuts:

I'm sure the plot ratios of areas around Thomson Line and Eastern Line has been worked out.So dont wait for June.Now is the time to cheong if you've got the bullets sub prime scam or no subprime.What happen to HK when the gahment announce MTR extension to the Western region?The ppty there skyrocketed.But knowing Sgreans we are always one step behind.When the whole herd cheong then all cheong.Sg is you move first then I move.


Buy too close to an unannounced MRT station location, may get chance to get enbloc by an entity using the Land Acquisition Act.

Buy too close to an unannounced MRT station location, may get chance to get enbloc by an entity using the Land Acquisition Act.

I thought Government now pay market rate ? If paid like the old day, better sell early.

The recent acquisition of Oasis at Kallang was paid pretty high although I thought the owner was too greedy rejecting and asking for more.

You're indeed right, it's the residences. Surprise there are remaining units, as I thought it was hot when launched in July last year. Must be lots of returned units. I've always thought this property had been sold too expensive but yet people grap like no tomorrow at that time.:nuts:

yes Baby, there are impulsive people who paid the option but later regretted and then there are those greedy people who thought they could flip the option and make a quick buck but failed…

yes Baby, there are impulsive people who paid the option but later regretted and then there are those greedy people who thought they could flip the option and make a quick buck but failed…

I heard SM Goh bought a unit there.

I understand developer willing to give discount now if you're serious to buy.

I heard SM Goh bought a unit there.

I understand developer willing to give discount now if you're serious to buy.

ya, think I saw an article when I skimmed through the Sunday Times...

I thought Government now pay market rate ? If paid like the old day, better sell early.

The recent acquisition of Oasis at Kallang was paid pretty high although I thought the owner was too greedy rejecting and asking for more.

Govt market rate = Valuation report, which is typically no where near what layman perceive as market rate. Govt never pays based on replacement or potential value, which is what most older enbloc properties are transected at.

yoongf, you think Marine Parade Rd is safe enough to dig? Or will they dig under the old canal (now linear park)?

Anyway, sure got some land acq. No empty plots along Marine Parade and East Coast Rd.

Govt market rate = Valuation report, which is typically no where near what layman perceive as market rate. Govt never pays based on replacement or potential value, which is what most older enbloc properties are transected at.

There is a HDB plot consisting of old HDB 5 storeys blocks opp Siglap shopping centre.Beside the Axis@Siglap.
Empty plot at end of Marine Parade Road with Bedok South opp LV.

yoongf, you think Marine Parade Rd is safe enough to dig? Or will they dig under the old canal (now linear park)?

Anyway, sure got some land acq. No empty plots along Marine Parade and East Coast Rd.

I suspect the line will either be the linear grass patch between the expressway and the old shoreline which is now a 2m wide drain, up to the new Chinese Swimming Club, and then follow Marine Parade Road.

But.. I always thot connectivity to ECP park is poor. Hope can have detour to a beach station somewhere.

It can nvr near the present line from City Hall to Singapore Expo.

I tink in view of Marina East land n its future potential as well as marine parade side n the conceptual future's Long Island reclaimation project, it shd be next to service road.

O'wise too much adverse impact on the row of pte ppties there n therein i.e. east coast - katong etc area.

e.g. To mention it serves Tg Rhu means that it cannot be too near CCL, n it shd be of use to Gardens of the Bay (M.E.) n M.E. future dev'ts. This could be an incentive for Disney to come in. But 2020 is too long to wait.

my 2 cts

There is a HDB plot consisting of old HDB 5 storeys blocks opp Siglap shopping centre.Beside the Axis@Siglap.
Empty plot at end of Marine Parade Road with Bedok South opp LV.

Yes. Those plots are too small for MRT stations.

I suspect the line will either be the linear grass patch between the expressway and the old shoreline which is now a 2m wide drain, up to the new Chinese Swimming Club, and then follow Marine Parade Road.

But.. I always thot connectivity to ECP park is poor. Hope can have detour to a beach station somewhere.

Wont that cut a bit into the KPE at Fort Rd side???

Ya. Will follow along the drain along Marine Parade Rd.

Maybe they will acquire Grand Hotel? And redev as Grand Hotel Station?

You know of any planning parameters for MRT station? Like population coverage (expected no. of people served) and coverage radius?

I also guessing ERL and Thomson not done deals. The areas where these line goes thru is quite low density now. Marine Parade well served by buses. and drives cars too. Also ERL some ocverage overlap with EW line. Cost of land acquistion higher. I think cost/benefit analysis not great. Chance that they may be delayed if circumstances change.

Only way that can make lots of money to offset construction costs is to SERS NC, LV, LP. just a thot.
Another thot that it may be SM Goh fulfilling promise to MP residents. SM Goh should be retiring soon within next 2 elections.

Wondering how is the mortgage mkt? banks tighter with credit check? Less than loan for 2nd investment property??

Anyone???

Wondering how is the mortgage mkt? banks tighter with credit check? Less than loan for 2nd investment property??

Anyone???

I wanted to buy another place next to my home, but the bank only willing to give me up to 60% of the valuation as this will be my 4th mortgage with the same bank.

The valuation done by the bank also show a lower than the asking price of the seller.

Target Home: Loyang Court.
Size: 1916sq ft.
99 years
Seller price: $750,000
Bank Valuation $650,000
Bank 60% of valuation: $390,000
40% of selling price. Cash up front by buyer: $360,000 (48% cash to buy a home)

Banks are still willing to give out new loan. However the bank are now more careful not to match the asking price of the home. It will be difficult for home owner to sell to buyers who have only 20% cash.

It will be important to make sure the bank loan you the money before you execute your option as you may not get the loan at all.

KepLand targets after Chinese New Year, but within first quarter

By ARTHUR SIM

(SINGAPORE) The launch of Marina Bay Suites has been postponed, with 'market conditions' cited as the cause by Keppel Land group chief executive Kevin Wong.

Later date: The launch of the 221-unit Marina Bay Suites will be after the Chinese New Year, sometime within the first quarter, says Keppel Land group CEO Kevin Wong
The news comes as a surprise as the consortium developing it - Keppel Land, Cheung Kong Holdings/Hutchinson Whampoa and Hongkong Land, had earlier said that the launch would be around end-January, before the Chinese New Year.

The consortium also said then that over 600 potential buyers, half of them foreigners, had registered their interest in buying into the 221-unit luxury development, priced at around $3,000 psf.

However, at a press conference to announce the company's full-year financial results yesterday, Mr Wong said that the launch would now be after the Chinese New Year - within the first quarter of 2008. He also said that units would be 'progressively released in tandem with market conditions'.

Keppel Land's other launches, including the next phase of Reflections at Keppel Bay, The Tresor and Madison Residences, will all be staggered to follow the launch of Marina Bay Suites to ensure that they do not coincide.

For Reflections at Keppel Bay, which has 400 units remaining, Mr Wong said that its launch would be around mid-2008.

Adopting the cautiously optimistic tone already shared by other developers, he said: 'If everything picks up in the second half of the year, then we will be back in business.'

His announcement follows Wing Tai deputy chairman Edmund Cheng's comment on Monday that it would monitor global markets 'to see how things pan out before we launch anything'. Wing Tai projects that have yet to be launched include Belle Vue Residences and L'Viv.

Earlier this month, City Developments also said that depending on construction schedules, and if the opportunity arose, it could consider short-term leases for Lucky Tower, which it acquired through a collective sale in May 2006.

Keppel Land's Mr Wong does expect prices in the high-end sector to be affected if a recession takes hold of the United States economy. 'But we expect mid to mass-market prices to go up steadily,' he added.

Mr Wong, who said that Keppel Land saw a default rate of about 5 per cent on its projects during the last property slump in the mid-1990s, added: 'There will be some (if there is a recession in 2008) but the percentage will be fairly low.'

Commenting on the postponement of the Marina Bay Suites launch, Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak said that 'developers are all watching each other now, but someone has to take the plunge first to test the water'.

'Because of the thin volume at the moment, the market is looking for direction. But we must bear in mind that the volume and price increases in 2007 was out of the ordinary.'


Mr Mak also highlighted that developments with licences to sell will increase as the year progresses. 'If developers wait for prices to go up, everybody could be launching at the same time.'

30 Jan 2008 10:26 CST DJ MARKET TALK: Citi Cuts S'pore Ppty Targets On Weaker Outlook


0226 GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup cuts Singapore property developers target prices to reflect expected slowdown in residential market price inflation. Has pared back hopes for Singapore GDP growth, expects job creation to slow significantly, will impact property market. Says; "with the reduction in new jobs and hence a reduction in inflow of foreigners, coupled with the sudden surge in completions in 2008, demand for rental units and hence rental rate hikes are likely to moderate." Allgreen (A16.SG) target price cut to S$1.83 from S$2.45; Buy rating maintained. Wing Tai (W05.SG) target price cut to S$2.85 from S$4.13; Buy rating maintained. City Developments (C09.SG) target price cut to S$13.41 from S$15.90; Hold rating maintained. Capitaland (C31.SG) target price cut to S$5.44 from S$7.00; Sell rating maintained. Keppel Land (K17.SG) target price kept at S$6.20; Sell rating maintained. (KIG)

Hey bro, thanks for sharing info.

<60% Loan to Valuation (LTV ) is asset-based lending. Meaning income support not key in credit check.

Dont know if the new launches are affected by lower valuation and/or LTV?

Wondering if how this going to TOPs condos? Subsales would probably gotten a loan already. Earlier DPS buyers would not be affected since purchase prices much lower.

Will bank disburse less loan (ask for cash topup) on TOP if valuation dropped since subsale purchase??? Anyone knows?

Thanks!

I wanted to buy another place next to my home, but the bank only willing to give me up to 60% of the valuation as this will be my 4th mortgage with the same bank.

The valuation done by the bank also show a lower than the asking price of the seller.

Target Home: Loyang Court.
Size: 1916sq ft.
99 years
Seller price: $750,000
Bank Valuation $650,000
Bank 60% of valuation: $390,000
40% of selling price. Cash up front by buyer: $360,000 (48% cash to buy a home)

Banks are still willing to give out new loan. However the bank are now more careful not to match the asking price of the home. It will be difficult for home owner to sell to buyers who have only 20% cash.

It will be important to make sure the bank loan you the money before you execute your option as you may not get the loan at all.

I suspect the line will either be the linear grass patch between the expressway and the old shoreline which is now a 2m wide drain, up to the new Chinese Swimming Club, and then follow Marine Parade Road.

But.. I always thot connectivity to ECP park is poor. Hope can have detour to a beach station somewhere.

Looking at this overlay from y2koh @ the transport thread, its seems you may be correct. The likely mrt stations up to Amber could be above ground and then tunnel under to Marine Parade onwards. These are some possibilities for stations but then your guess is as good as mine. For the marine parade station, it may evenl acquire back the entire block currently housing NTUC and Hans.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v465/keenetic/newmrt.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v465/keenetic/Meyer.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v465/keenetic/amber-mrt.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v465/keenetic/Marineparade-mrt.jpg

SINGAPORE, Jan. 29, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- The government said Wednesday it plans to invest up to 10.5 billion Singapore dollars in the next 12 years to build two new expressways to ease vehicular traffic in the city-state as the population grows.

But in the short-term, the government plans to increase road taxes under its electronic road pricing (ERP) scheme to ease traffic at existing expressways, said Transport Minister Raymond Lim.

The government will double ERP charges from July this year, raising additional revenues of 70 million dollars a year from the road tax. The charges are applicable during peak hours on major roads and expressways.

The coverage of the ERP in and around the central business district will also be expanded.

To offset the higher ERP charges, Lim said the government will lower the annual road tax on all vehicles by 15 percent.

'Beyond short-term needs, our priority is to continue investing for the future,' Lim said.

The government is building a 2.5 billion dollar expressway in the Marina Bay. When completed in 2013, it will be the major expressway accessing the new financial district and the integrated casino resort being developed by Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) on Marina Bay.

Another expressway the government is building is the 21-kilometer north-south expressway. When completed in 2020, the 7-8 billion dollar expressway is expected to cut travel time from the north to the city by 30 percent.

Lim announced the construction of the two new expressways after officially opening the control center of the Kallang-Paya Lebar expressway, which is expected to be fully opened in September this year.

Singapore is building new roads and is expanding its mass rapid transit (MRT) system to accommodate an increasing population. The government has been encouraging foreigners to live and work in the city-state to achieve its long-term population target of 6.5 million, up from 4.68 million currently.

Last week, Lim said the government will spend some 20 billion dollars in the next 12 years to build two new MRT lines.

3 big local news recently.Housing,Health and Transport.

A.MBT.More HDB Flats
B.KBW.Means Testing.
C.RL.MRT lines to double.100 new train stations.
And the finale....mother of all news.
D.LSL.Budget news


I thought bigbird fly high high.Sharp eyes.Slacking heh...
Item D: Probably TS - Budget News ....

NY message by LSL all domestic issues: Education (4th U), Health (Means Testing) n Transport ... all involve rising costs to the govt. $$$ come from where?

Due to globalisation (global city) n economic modeling, costs are rebalanced internally to rationalise. With UNSW disappearance, 4 U became a political SG burden n cost ticket to govt. Means testing .. can see KBW being the first to roll out after NY into the limelight .. see all the oscillating statements.

Contain n cut costs, and/or increase revenues. So Item D .. I expect built up crescendo from the domestic issues rolled out now, towards budget day n CPF rate cut. btw, tey hv almost stopped reporting productivity growth statistics ....

Costs will continue to rise tis year, e.g. ppl hv been mentally prepared for price rise .. inflation. Next year, expect GST to adjust upwards ... then 2010 onwards, all the 'good news' n massaging will flow back n forth to prepare for next GE. Which could also mean that when the present clouds hv cleared by then, ppty mkt momentum will resume.

FYI only. Not Rec to BUY/SELL.

Another reason why should avoid Allco REIT, despite high yield. Unless you sure REIT can get refinancing and assets value wont fall.

No vested interests. Covered shorts already. Anyway, positions small small only.

Extension of Repayment Period for another 3mth. Buying time. Sign of weakness.

This is material info regarding refinancing. yet never annc. Another sign of weakness.

Update: Capital Intl starts selling Allco REIT. Up to 18 Jan, Capital still buying. Capital holds 77 million share (abt 10%) as at 31 Jan 08.
Capital known to be long term investors so Allco not worth long term hold.

ALLCO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANNOUNCEMENT
for the financial year ended 31 December 2007
9


1(b)(iii) Post balance sheet date events
Extension of part of Loan Note Facility

On 25 January 2008, Allco REIT executed a Third Deed of Amendment amending the scheduled repayment date
for S$179.0 million of loan notes issued under the Loan Note Facility from 31 March 2008 to 31 July 2008.


Partial Withdrawal of AWPF Units

On 21 December 2007, Allco REIT received a withdrawal offer from the manager of AWPF for the redemption of up
to 17.17% of the units held by Allco REIT in AWPF (the “Withdrawal Offer”). The Withdrawal Offer will be funded
with the proceeds of the sale of 222 Exhibition Street, Melbourne, which was completed earlier in the year.
Based on the redemption price of A$1.1012 (S$1.3968) and assuming the ability of AWPF to satisfy all withdrawal
offer acceptances, it is expected that Allco REIT will receive total proceeds of A$9,075,600 (S$11,512,399) for the
redemption of 8,241,487 units held in AWPF, giving rise to a realised gain of A$583,879 (S$740,651) net of
Australian capital gains tax of 30%. Allco REIT, through its subsidiary that holds the units in AWPF, has accepted
the Withdrawal Offer and expects to receive the proceeds from the redemption in the first quarter of 2008. The
Manager intends to use the proceeds from the redemption for general corporate and working capital purposes. It is
expected that Allco REIT’s proportionate ownership of AWPF will remain at 20.6%, on the assumption that all other
unitholders in AWPF will fully redeem their units pursuant to the Withdrawal Offer.

All waiting on the sidelines.
Doomsayers wishing property to head downwads.
Those vested hanging on for a break last few months.
Those not sure remain not sure.
Those desperate with cash just buy,since got no place to stay.Now seem a right time.Those with some cash but think pro doom say wait some more.
I feel like de jevu 2003/2004.But I took the plunge on instinct and bought a downtown unit.
HCNY 200fatt..:cheers:

2003/2004 is post-911/SARS. 2008 is post-BOOM. what de jevu? Different lah..

As I said, enbloc sites not tearing down so soon. Developers allowing sellers to stay longer. Stalled collective sales also keeping roofs over sellers' heads for now. Argument for "no place to stay" is weak.


All waiting on the sidelines.
Doomsayers wishing property to head downwads.
Those vested hanging on for a break last few months.
Those not sure remain not sure.
Those desperate with cash just buy,since got no place to stay.Now seem a right time.Those with some cash but think pro doom say wait some more.
I feel like de jevu 2003/2004.But I took the plunge on instinct and bought a downtown unit.
HCNY 200fatt..:cheers:

I'm hearing it's now the buyers' turn to be dishonourable- sellers are accepting buyers' prices, only for the buyers to say that their bid prices have gone down.

fengshui lun lui zhuan. What goes around comes around.

I'm hearing it's now the buyers' turn to be dishonourable- sellers are accepting buyers' prices, only for the buyers to say that their bid prices have gone down.

My take: I guess the surplus completed units (TOPs - Demolished) in 08 may be more than 2200. Reasons because developers letting sellers stay longer since developers not launches and rental yields still good. Stalled collective sales are stopping building from being demolished. Completions should completed on target since the construction bottlenecks are at earlier phases of projects (mainly from 2 IRs), not later phases. Net increase in completed units should be higher than 2200.

Rentals should soften as more supply comes onboard throughout 2008. Demand from expats should also soften as financials have headcount freezes pending restructuring/mergers and lower in biz volume (IB/Sales&Trading/Ops).
If rental yields dropped due to increased vacancy, capital values may dropped since price growth is expected to low or negative in current uncertainty.

As mentioned before, enbloc sellers are a disrupting source of demand and supply. Major cause of the imbalance that caused the panic surge in prices. With the 'gradual' pace of enbloc sites completion and demolitions, the supply/demand imbalance will correct itself when supply meets demand in 08 and 09.

Another source of motivated sellers will be those with new TOP condos. This will potentially increase the sellers' pool in private resi resale market. Either thru their existing residences or new TOPs. Softening rental mkt and increased job uncertainty will reduce holding powers of multi-property owners.
Reduced bank rates may help those on DPS, which are strong holders due to fat capital gains. But high subsales activity would means buyers would have locked in their mortgages rates already and would not benefits from lower rates in 1H08.

So I expect prices to fall in 08 in high and mid private resale market. Mass mkt resale would also fall. New mass mkt launches would see flat prices for big developers, while smaller developers will slash prices to clear stocks.

Info:

Mid-Large projects due to completed in 08: Park Infinia, Seaview, One Leicester, City Square Resi.

Enbloc sites sales completed potentially demolish in 08: Leedon Heights, Sophia Court, Farrer Court, Gillmans Heights, Casa Rosita, The Parisian, Grangeford, Silver Tower, Hillcourt, Char Yong Gardens...

Some data from weekend's papers.

URA's projections (from 2 Feb's BT)

2008 - 8300 plus units

2009 - 13,493 units (11,026 under construction & 2467 planned)

2010 - 18509 units

From 2 Feb's The Edge "The Year of Mid-End Market",

According to Citi Equity Research in Jan 29 property report, URA's 2008 completions were revised sharply upwards by 51% to 8364 units in 4Q07 from 5541 units in 3Q07. "With about 8400 united scheduled for completion and potential 6200 units removed from the system as a result of the en bloc boom in 07 and late 06, private housing stock could potentially rise by 2200 units in 2008 instead of the negative supply expected earlier"

^^
My oh my, bigbird... you seem to paint a very bleak outlook...with forced sellers etc..

And this figure of more than 2200 net units coming on this year... Shocking !
After all, much higher than the 1448 units last year. That figure was, after all, the LOWEST IN AT LEAST 12 YEARS. And general expectations is take up rate of 6-8k needed annually.
Rough rule of thumb for those units ... needs 4.4k new people coming in to take up supply... must be tough to fill up this new supply, esp since last year only 120k foreigners came in...

And I'm sure people are panicking about their jobs right now, esp now unemployment has hit a record low of 1.6% in Dec.

And that many commentators/agents still expect rentals to rise at half the rate of last year (only 20%, tho some pessimists expect only 8-9% growth).

bb, on the plus side tho, I do admire your willingness to say these things, after all, so many of us did talk up the market last year. So I think what you say is fair, and even I can't say market won't fall a lot this year or indeed, in 2009-10 when supply is large. Nobody knows, tho I really believe just looking at demand/supply is generally not indicative (as you wouldn't have bought in 2005/6 on this - sentiment more important). I just think that you are overly pessimistic. :)

My take: I guess the surplus completed units (TOPs - Demolished) in 08 may be more than 2200.

Rentals should soften as more supply comes onboard throughout 2008.

Softening rental mkt and increased job uncertainty will reduce holding powers of multi-property owners

hey, mv. actually dont think I very pessimistic. Magnitude of price decline still depends on things played out. Still I think this is more of a 1-3 yrs shakedown, rather than a sustained decline.

however, what you said did counterbalance my negative view. the signs u said are lingering signs of the past boom. Going forward, will SG/Asia/Global continue to boom?

rental and holding powers seems to be hinged on jobs. high end jobs. expats and locals. but the future for financial institutions does not look too good. companies also like to use slowdown to layoff people proactively.

the main idea is the factors that leads to the 2yr prop boom is not there. or in reverse gear. Key factors like Liquidity/Financing, DPS, Booming Stock Mkts and Enbloc.

See my old post on "lollapalooza effect" on SG property

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=16169471&postcount=35

"private housing stock could potentially rise by 2200 units in 2008 "

And of these how many are in districts 9 and 10 where most of the enblocing took place?
Not many.
I'm pretty sure 2008 is ok. After that, all bets off......

But buyers would look at least 2-3 yrs ahead. If after 2008, more uncertain then people wont buy in 2008.

Enbloc sellers cannot afford to buy back replacements in D9 & D10. Got also cannot afford.

"private housing stock could potentially rise by 2200 units in 2008 "

And of these how many are in districts 9 and 10 where most of the enblocing took place?
Not many.
I'm pretty sure 2008 is ok. After that, all bets off......

S'pore resident population stood at nearly 3.6m as of June 2007

The Singapore resident population - comprising citizens and permanent residents - hit some 3.58 million (3,583,100) by end of June last year, compared to 3.53 million (3,525,900) at the end of June 2006.

But the Department of Statistics says the latest figures showed that Singapore's total population as at end of June this year was 4.59 million (4,588,600).

This includes the non-resident population, which increased to slightly over one million by end-June 2007 (1,005,500) compared to 875,500 in the previous year.

Just half a year,

- local resident grow by 57,200.
- expatriate grow by 130,000

Doesn't look like too far away to reach 5.5m population in 5-10 years.

Government huge investment on new MRT lines, and Expressways by 2020.

Let's see the budget for 2008 this month, and we'll know if the government is optimistic or pessimistic.

IMO, it'll be more on the positive side.

I have spoken to enough people for the past few months, to draw the following conclusion:

Those who think the market is going to crash big-time are people who have recently sold their properties or have missed the boat or couldn’t afford apartments which are now at prices way beyond their means… many of the latter two types of people cry foul and some became green-eyed monsters after seeing people around them laughing their way to the banks…

Then there are those who tell me with confidence that the Singapore property market will grow another 15% this year, nevermind if they are the same people who think the US economy (and stock market) will correct big-time somemore… no prizes for correctly guessing they have bought a unit recently…

The above 2 paragraphs sums up my humble findings… I have yet to come across exceptions. Actually, I’ve posted this more than a year ago, in December 2006: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=10825579&postcount=42

If you asked me, I really don’t care how this property market will fair this year. Why?

Well, I won’t know how bad the US subprime will affect its economy and how badly that in turn will affect Singapore in terms for job freeze, retrenchment, less expats, etc…

I won’t know for sure whether China is really overheated and long-overdue for a correction and if so, the rich Chinese will not be coming our way to spend/gamble/contribute to our economy and buy properties like there’s no tomorrow…

How will our en-bloc activities fair this year? What’s the economic impact of F1? Is demand for housing still strong? Or is there a build-up of supply? Will there be panic selling during TOP by speculators who bought on DPS? Are the government’s measures to cool the rental market over-done or too late?

And what about the Middle East? SM and MM were there, weren’t they?

With so many questions and so many uncertainties and so many events seemingly inter-related with each other, how can I be sure what will happen next? All I know is whatever happens, good or bad, I am prepared for it.

Do your sums, do worst-case scenarios, adopt a long term perceptive, don’t over-extend yourself, make sure you haven’t bitten off more than you can chew, expect the worst but stay positive, and be merry.

Just half a year,

- local resident grow by 57,200.
- expatriate grow by 130,000

Doesn't look like too far away to reach 5.5m population in 5-10 years.

Government huge investment on new MRT lines, and Expressways by 2020.

Let's see the budget for 2008 this month, and we'll know if the government is optimistic or pessimistic.

IMO, it'll be more on the positive side.

Agree with littlepigpig & baby view. But dare not go against Bigbirdie view too.

As I am vested in Allco Reit at $0.70. (still lost $50,000, but consider small to those whom have lost millions of $$$)

I think our property still have a long way to go. But nevermind, just be careful lah.

I have been trying to buy a home in Pasir Ris, if the market is so gloomy, why no one is selling to me. I am offering seller last transacted price of $900,000 and no one want to sell.

Some projects do not have a sellers for the past 6 month in Pasir Ris. Name a few; Loyang Garden, Calendon View, Le Loyang. I am not talking about Orchard or Downtown Marina Bay. I am talking about no sellers at Downtown East in ULU ULU Pasir Ris. :lol::lol::lol:

You must get involve as a buyers to know what it feel to seek without any result.:lol:

Happy New Year guys. Take care.

Maybe people in the suburbs are not selling simply cos the replacement cost is too high even right down to HDBs. Town area HDBs near River Valley and Tanjong Pagar can even ask 2k to 4k rental. I think everyone just want to stay put.

Published February 5, 2008

NEWS ANALYSIS

Subsales may spike again as projects near completion

Prices could soften if 'specuvestors' are forced to offload properties

By KALPANA RASHIWALA


(SINGAPORE) Speculative activity took a breather in Q4 last year as the number of subsales as well as their share of total private home deals were down sharply from the preceding two quarters of 2007. However, many in the industry are wondering whether subsales will again spike closer to the physical completion dates for some high-profile projects sold substantially on deferred payment (DP) schemes.

Among the projects that will be keenly watched are The Sail @ Marina Bay, The Coast (at Sentosa Cove), The Grange, and The Suites at Central in the Devonshire Road area, all of which were sold amidst much hype. The first two projects are scheduled to receive Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) next year and the latter two, this year.

The coming wave of subsales - if there's one - may not be so much a reflection of speculative froth in the market but rather of buyers seeking to offload their units before the DP expires.

Those who bought their properties on DP schemes would typically have paid 10 or 20 per cent of their purchase price to the developer with the next payment (of 75 per cent or 65 per cent, respectively) deferred till the project receives TOP. By TOP, the developer would collect 85 per cent of the sale price.

Such buyers can shop for a bank loan until closer to the project's TOP date.

However, buyers who picked up multiple units in some of these developments on DP schemes and are still sitting on them may not be able to secure sufficient housing loans to foot the bills when the projects obtain TOP.

Banks may turn cautious over advancing loans for multiple property purchases. Some, for example, may only be prepared to lend up to 70 per cent - based on their credit assessment and servicing ability of the borrower - instead of 80-90 per cent, of the purchase price of the property or its current value, whichever is lower.

These 'specuvestors' may find that it makes more sense to sell their units in the subsale market before they receive a big bill from developers.

Such subsales, while apparently 'forced' by the difficulty of finding enough housing loans, could still yield handsome gains for such investors - given the huge rise in upmarket home prices.

However, if a sizeable number of such properties come on the subsale market, some sellers may be willing to accept below-market values. This will clip developers' pricing power when they sell new projects in nearby locations.

Already, BT understands that some individual investors, anticipating 'dumping' from speculators, are teaming up to snap up some of these units at below-market prices.

Jones Lang LaSalle's head of research (South-east Asia) Chua Yang Liang reckoned that some buyers who purchased units on DP during the initial launches may begin to review their options around five to six months ahead of TOP. 'Supply of such properties in the subsale market could potentially increase from the latter half of this year, which could potentially see prices easing,' Dr Chua said.

Of course, it may be a different story altogether if sentiment in the high-end market picks up again.

A lot will also depend on the holding power of those who still have units they've bought from developers. Some may not face problems getting housing loans, because they have the ability to service them. Such buyers may just go ahead and pay that big instalment when the project receives TOP.

Another factor that will bear on the extent of 'forced' subsales is the profile of buyers in each project - the mix of those who bought units with a view to living in them, and those who purchased with an eye on flipping before the project's completion.

A seasoned property agent told BT that a condo in the East Coast area receiving TOP soon recently saw several buyers offering their units at prices considerably below what was being achieved just a few weeks ago - before the stock market plunge.

Then there's another theory. While we may see a flurry of subsales for projects sold in the past on DP, it will be a different story going ahead.

With no new projects approved by the authorities for DP schemes since DP was scrapped in late October 2007, new launches going ahead will attract fewer potential speculators. This is because those who buy into projects without DP schemes know they will have to make regular progress payments to the developer and in all likelihood have to obtain housing loans.

'You'll see more genuine buyers in the market,' as ERA Realty Network divisional director Andrew Soh said. 'Developers may still be able to maintain current prices, or even achieve higher prices. But instead of weeks, it may take them months, or even years, to sell out projects.'

'As new project launches attract fewer speculators, I may have to sell physical homes and not just paper (options),' he quipped.

Warren Buffett said before, "If you are eating hamburgers, you would want hamburgers prices to stay flat or fall."

So unless looking to buy, sell or refinance to draw down equity, "last done" prices are meaningless. But it does make people feel "wealthy" and confident.

Another similar story describe how perception shapes our outlook/view.

http://www.chinapage.com/story/lostaxe.html

Ultimately, it is still boil down to conviction. Things dont turn out as what we expected, then so be it loh. As long dont get knocked out. Always got opportunities ahead of us so no scared lose out. and be patient because it does not have to be right here right now.

Airy-fairy philiosphical mode..hhahahaha...

Those who think the market is going to crash big-time are people who have recently sold their properties or have missed the boat or couldn’t afford apartments which are now at prices way beyond their means… many of the latter two types of people cry foul and some became green-eyed monsters after seeing people around them laughing their way to the banks…

Then there are those who tell me with confidence that the Singapore property market will grow another 15% this year, nevermind if they are the same people who think the US economy (and stock market) will correct big-time somemore… no prizes for correctly guessing they have bought a unit recently.…

Its always like that. A lot of people definitely envious, but I guess thats human nature. Everyone acts according to his or her vested interest. :lol:

With so many questions and so many uncertainties and so many events seemingly inter-related with each other, how can I be sure what will happen next? All I know is whatever happens, good or bad, I am prepared for it.

Do your sums, do worst-case scenarios, adopt a long term perceptive, don’t over-extend yourself, make sure you haven’t bitten off more than you can chew, expect the worst but stay positive, and be merry.…

Agree. Anyway, maybe you can help me in this. I have looked through some of the old posts and you really seem like quite an expert in tax, company issues. I am currently staying in a HDB that is only 2 yrs only and may look into buying into private property. If I incorporate a pte limited or sole propreitorship, what are the tax issues involved. What are the loans alternative also. Are there other alternatives into buying private property without selling my HDB. Thanks!:)

http://forums.condosingapore.com/showpost.php?p=38126&postcount=123

From another forum, said that Bravo Construction not continuing with Makeway View enbloc. MV was bot at $1700+ psf on Nov 07.

Chun bo? Anyone can confirm? Thx.

Published February 5, 2008

However, many in the industry are wondering whether subsales will again spike closer to the physical completion dates for some high-profile projects sold substantially on deferred payment (DP) schemes.

Among the projects that will be keenly watched are The Sail @ Marina Bay, The Coast (at Sentosa Cove), The Grange, and The Suites at Central in the Devonshire Road area, all of which were sold amidst much hype. The first two projects are scheduled to receive Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) next year and the latter two, this year.

A lot will also depend on the holding power of those who still have units they've bought from developers. Some may not face problems getting housing loans, because they have the ability to service them. Such buyers may just go ahead and pay that big instalment when the project receives TOP.



How come recently TOP or to be TOP high profile residential development with high % of DPS had not seen their prices fell at all ? - e.g., Icon, Citylight, 8@Sophia, Azure, etc.

Sail & Coast are even more high profile and excellent location - most DPS had gone since many subsales - the reporter gave wrong example lah.

Just ask the owners of the Sail in this forum if they're willing to sell lower than market ?
They "pui" at you ! ;)

http://forums.condosingapore.com/showpost.php?p=38126&postcount=123

From another forum, said that Bravo Construction not continuing with Makeway View enbloc. MV was bot at $1700+ psf on Nov 07.

Chun bo? Anyone can confirm? Thx.

This sounds serious. Bravo made an offer to buy enbloc astoria apt at cairnhill rise by private treaty. But also didnt exercise the options.

Call me stupid, make me a idiot.

I think it is a chance to buy cheap. And may be a last chance.

Just squeeze the sellers and make sure you get a good deal out of it.

This sounds serious. Bravo made an offer to buy enbloc astoria apt at cairnhill rise by private treaty. But also didnt exercise the options.

Bravo Construction is one of those developers that buy and buy without selling. Only sell the small OCR projects. No fat to survive the lean years.

Makeway View only $162m. The biggie is Tulip Gardens. $500m. TG is at STB stage now.

PM says we will have a good year ahead.I'm sure he has done his homework.
One good sign so far these two years is I have not seen LBH come on board to show his face.If so sure bad news.So far so good.Any way his portfolio has been changed.:cheers:Happy CNY to all.For more good years.

Bravo Construction is one of those developers that buy and buy without selling. Only sell the small OCR projects. No fat to survive the lean years.

Makeway View only $162m. The biggie is Tulip Gardens. $500m. TG is at STB stage now.

Though I don't have any info about Makeway View, I find that it makes sense for developers generally to concentrate on a "handful" of projects now. If Bravo wants to be more focused on specific projects, it makes perfect sense. Remembered Mr Kwek making a comment about the "8 year cycle" during the property boom back in late 2005. However, looking back the past few years, its obvious that developers practice land banking within a "small" window period of 1.5 to 2 years. Leading the enbloc purchases were Far East and CDL in 2005 and UOL in 2006. We don't hear much of them in 2007 except for much smaller players taking whats remaining in the market. Apparently the uptrend and downtrend in this 8 year cycle isnt symmetrical but rather skewed to the right. All the action in the early years. Only those still in lala land will want to demand ridiculously high price for enbloc.. developers most likely sitting on the sides laughing and saying," In another 20 years perhaps"

Let's wish for another great year in the year of the Rat ! (even tho things bit sticky, don't forget market had a fantastic run in 1H)

Last year a fantastic investment year for Asian property in general...
SG: +40% (mainly in 2Q)
HK: +30+% (in less than 6 months)
MO: +30-50% (2 bursts, one recent/MGM/Venetian, the other at beginning of 07)

So last year... sowing.. This year, hopefully begin to harvest some things !
Outlook for Rat Year
SG: Mainly flat +5-10% (most gain likely in 4Q)
HK: +30%
MO: +30%
UK: Fall
:cheers:

Reference from Asia Property Rpt , "Sales and launches remain slow"


Residential prices may have kept rising in Singapore through 2007, but activity slowed significantly in the last third of the year. However, the number of new launches in the Core Central Region (CCR) increased in December, bucking the trend in the other regions.

Compared to the 95 units launched in the CCR in November, the December figure rose to 247 units, a 160% increase, while the number of units sold also increased by some 37% to 175 units.

However, discounting those units in Goodwood Residence bulk purchased by the Kuwait Finance House, the resultant number of units launched was only 150, a more moderate 57.9% increase, while the number of units sold was 78, actually 39% lower. This adjusted number is more reflective of the cautious mood in the overall residential market, according to a report by Jones Lang LaSalle.

The looming uncertainty from the US subprime issue coupled with seasonal slowdown during the year-end period led to a contraction in the number of new launches and sales in both the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and the Outside Central Region (OCR).

In the RCR, launches registered a drop of 56% to 118 units, while there was an even wider decline in the OCR, which dropped 70%.to 61 units.

The islandwide demand, as reflected by the number of units sold, was some 50% lower for the month. Discounting the bulk purchases by institutional buyers, the December sales were 66% lower than November and 37.4% lower than even September, previously the lowest sales month on record since the series started.

The cautious sentiment caused by the uncertainty on the impact of the US subprime issue set the tone for buyers, who were generally more realistic and consistent with each other, resulting in the gap between the highest and lowest median selling prices being more moderate compared to previous months.

Jones Lang LaSalle’s gap analysis in the median price transacted showed a narrower band in the CCR and the RCR. The gap between the highest and lowest median selling prices was closer than in any of the previous months. The CCR registered a gap of only 8.2% in December as compared to 11.4% in November. Similarly, RCR registered 9.8% in December compared to the previous month’s wide gap of 25.7%.

The OCR, a mass-market region more sensitive to market sentiment, maintained the smallest gap of 5%. The buyers from this region are the most conservative compared to those in other regions.

Per the article, the big talk about mid (RCR) and mass end (OCR) market boom in 2008 doesn't seem realistic if the sentiment remains low. IMO, it's hard to imagine if mid and mass market will boom if the high end goes dead since generally the two formers are much more sensitive to quantum price increase.

Per the article, the big talk about mid (RCR) and mass end (OCR) market boom in 2008 doesn't seem realistic if the sentiment remains low. IMO, it's hard to imagine if mid and mass market will boom if the high end goes dead since generally the two formers are much more sensitive to quantum price increase.

I do not think the boom is happening in 1Q 2008.

I am monitoring a project in Pasir Ris with the last transacted price of $1.15M (in November 2007) with similiar size unit now on sale at $0.95M. (both unit same floor same orientation)

note: All transactions are done by owners.

Market surely taking a break.

I am monitoring a project in Pasir Ris with the last transacted price of $1.15M (in November 2007) with similiar size unit now on sale at $0.95M. (both unit same floor same orientation)
Some people are just plain idiots when buying something. I think all signs were there already in November that the market was dropping. This 20% over pay may be compared with the stock exchange also being 20% off of its high. None of it being a real big deal. Life goes on. The big big big question is when and will we see a 1997/8 style crash? Or will things simply have slowed down for a while?

Agree with malonie. The question is how will the projected losses related to sub prime of US$400B trickle down to tiny Singapore.. or will it be a tsunami??

^^ that's exactly what i meant... nobody will know the magnitude and extent of how much the US subprime woes will affect singapore's properties... the only solution is to invest wisely and within your means... do your sums carefully.

Agree. Anyway, maybe you can help me in this. I have looked through some of the old posts and you really seem like quite an expert in tax, company issues. I am currently staying in a HDB that is only 2 yrs only and may look into buying into private property. If I incorporate a pte limited or sole propreitorship, what are the tax issues involved. What are the loans alternative also. Are there other alternatives into buying private property without selling my HDB. Thanks!:)

hi sotong77

sorry for the late reply... i'm no expert but here's my reply:

sole-proprietorships can't own properties. a pte ltd company can own private residential properties. as for mortgage loans, you'll have to talk to the bankers. company tax rate is a flat 18% with partial tax exemption on the first $300K chargeable income. i can't think of any alternatives to buying private residential properties without selling your HDB. hope that helps. :)

Some people are just plain idiots when buying something. I think all signs were there already in November that the market was dropping. This 20% over pay may be compared with the stock exchange also being 20% off of its high. None of it being a real big deal. Life goes on. The big big big question is when and will we see a 1997/8 style crash? Or will things simply have slowed down for a while?

I do not think we are having a crash, the example I quote is a one off thing.

I am looking to buy hence I only quote what interest me.

The Pasir Ris Penthse I sold in Aug 2007 for $1.18m was sold again in the market at $1.4m in Jan 2008.

I think market has no clear direction, it do not show any sign of weakness.

For market to crash a few components must be present.

Banks must tighten their landing.
Bank recall the loans.
Valuation price drop.

I do not see that happening.

While analysing the market, we tend to forget our country economy and future events.

100 MRT stations.
2 Casino.
5-6% economy growth in 2008.
Low unemployment figure.
5% inflation. (moderate inflation is good for property investment)
Low lending rate from bank. (if bank interest is 4%, with 5% inflation we make 1% gain from the loan if market stay consisten.)

Different people play their game differently. My objective is to make my tennants pay off my properties mortgage in 20 years, and I own the property they rent forever.

I know a Rolex watch company whom have rent shop in Lucky Plaza for 20 years, and they are still paying the owner $35K every month.

I think they have paid enough rental to buy 2 shops in Lucky Plaza.

If you ask me why the company is so stupid? I could not answer you as the company still makes millions of $$$ every year.:lol:

20-30% off Jun-Aug 07 highs may erase the expected profit of some projects with sites in early 2Q07. Would also see some 80% downpayment resale/ subsale buyers going into negative equity.

Bank may tighten lending when resale prices slipped. I GUESS this time round banks would be more ruthless in enforcement (bankrupting people and selling off properties) when people cannot pay. Now banks got 1st charge over CPF, compared to CPF 1st charge during Asian Crisis.

Commercial shops different because tenants scared lose regular customers if move to another place. Resi tenants can stay nearby or elsewhere.

The key factors I am looking out in 08 is jobs and rental yields/vacancy. Esp in finance sector. I suspected (from MOM data) that high end jobs created in 07 are mainly finance-driven. In financial institutions, accounting firms and law firms. When deals volume falls, these companies will have excess staff. M&A among global banks will be BAD for rentals because headcount freeze ALWAYS follows immediately after mergers.

Jobs created in mfg and construction are mainly low-end. So not much impact on rentals.

Not putting too much weight on IR/F1. 100 MRT stations are too far away. MP2008 will be disappointment to private resi.

BTW, sole properitor/partnerships can own private resi properties. No known way to bypass HDB law on 5yr MOP before buying private resi.

hi sotong77

sorry for the late reply... i'm no expert but here's my reply:

sole-proprietorships can't own properties. a pte ltd company can own private residential properties. as for mortgage loans, you'll have to talk to the bankers. company tax rate is a flat 18% with partial tax exemption on the first $300K chargeable income. i can't think of any alternatives to buying private residential properties without selling your HDB. hope that helps. :)

Thanks! I have a silly question, maybe anyone can help me. What happens if I incorporate a company now and buy a residential property. 3 years later when my HDB has hit 5 yrs. Can I transfer the property to my personal name? What are the costs involved if i do that. Many thanks!:)

Wish everyone a Happy Chinese New year and a prosperous year ahead!:cheers:

Thanks! I have a silly question, maybe anyone can help me. What happens if I incorporate a company now and buy a residential property. 3 years later when my HDB has hit 5 yrs. Can I transfer the property to my personal name? What are the costs involved if i do that. Many thanks!:)

Wish everyone a Happy Chinese New year and a prosperous year ahead!:cheers:

When you transfer property ownership from your company to your personal name, you have to pay stamp duty, simply because your PTE LTD company is a legal entity. In other words, this method will not save you any money. You should just sell the property directly out from your company.

When you transfer property ownership from your company to your personal name, you have to pay stamp duty, simply because your PTE LTD company is a legal entity. In other words, this method will not save you any money. You should just sell the property directly out from your company.

Ok Noted. Not to save money, just thinking how to go around the HDB 5 year rule. I think probably clear cut method will just to use my mother's name i guess.:lol:

Ok Noted. Not to save money, just thinking how to go around the HDB 5 year rule. I think probably clear cut method will just to use my mother's name i guess.:lol:

By right, HDB says cannot buy pte resi via nominees. Pte ltd or mom can be considered as nominees. Dunno how HDB interpret pte ltd.

Buy under mom's name is better. Make sure she make a will making you a bene of that property. If not, estate may be troublesome.

SPEECH BY MR LEE KUAN YEW,MINISTER MENTOR, AT THE TANJONG PAGAR CHINESE NEW YEAR DINNER, 11 FEBRUARY 2008, 8.45 PM AT FARRER PARK PRIMARY SCHOOL

The world economy is in a financial crisis. Stock markets everywhere have plummeted. The Federal Reserve Bank has lowered interest rate drastically and US President and Congress have agreed on a rescue package of US$168 billion to encourage Americans to spend and avoid a recession. World food prices have gone up because of bad harvests in agricultural countries like Australia, and also because corn and palm oil are now used not as food but are converted into energy for biogas and bio-diesel.

In spite of this gloom, economists of the Singapore government and also of banks and financial institutions have forecast that Singapore will still make growth of between 4 to 6%. This is quite remarkable for it will be the first time that when the American economy slows down and reduce imports from Asia, Asia will not go into recession. The reason is the dynamics of the domestic growth momentum in China and in India. Our neighbours are doing well. High oil, palm oil and other commodity prices are adding to growth of Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. Vietnam is on a high growth path for many years as they industrialise. Singapore is in the centre of the world’s highest growth region.

The rise in food and energy prices, and the widening income gap between high and low earners is cause for concern. We can mitigate these problems. But we must press ahead and maximise our chances to break through in the coming 5 to 10 years to reach a higher quality of development. Singapore is into a period of steady growth and transformation.

Massive investments in infrastructure will keep our construction industry busy for several years: S$20 billion in new MRT lines and another S$8 billion in a new North-South Expressway, mostly underground, two integrated resorts, each S$4 to 5 billion worth, and petrochemical projects by ExxonMobil and Shell costing well over S$10 billion combined. We are also attracting significant investments in new growth sectors: Finland's Neste Oil is investing S$1.2b to build the world's largest next generation biodiesel plant, a S$1 billion biotech plant from Novartis, its biggest-ever single manufacturing investment, and a S$6 billion investment by Norway's Renewable Energy Corporation in what is slated to be the world's largest integrated solar manufacturing complex.

Foreign investors are confident of Singapore’s future, our security, stability, safety, predictability, efficiency and industrial peace between labour and management, and the wide support of people for sound policies. These huge investments need decades, not the next few years, to make returns worthwhile.

Our tourist and hospitality industry is going to bloom. Formula One night racing will be held this September in our city centre. This will add to the liveliness of Singapore’s night life. We now have high arts and entertainment from Theatres by the Bay to al fresco dining along the Singapore River and Marina.

Singapore is undergoing a transformation. The Marina Barrage is completed. From next year 2009, saline water will be drained out and we will have a fresh water lake. PUB will make sure that the lake is free of debris and pollution. All streams, canals and monsoon drains will become the recreation waterways and be greened up and fitted with board water. This requires complex engineering task and also needs the cooperation of our people to keep our drains and waterways free of plastic and other waste.

By 2011, the Marina Bay Area will be splendid, especially a water plaza, surrounded by a promenade fronting financial centres, integrated resorts, residential condominiums, food and beverages outlets, an enchanting sight to behold. It will be a unique city centre. We will not leave our heartlands behind. All new towns will be upgraded and beautified. The massive new investments in infrastructure and beautification, plus a steadily growing economy, with higher incomes, will keep property values going up.

Our young can improve themselves through education, from kindergarten, primary school, secondary school, junior colleges, ITEs (institutes of education), polytechnics and universities. For those who missed the normal career path, there will be part-time degrees and diplomas.

Only through training and education can our people take up the high value-added jobs in a knowledge-based economy.

The financial crisis has cooled off the property/market for the time being. It is a blessing. We were in danger of property prices going through the roof again, as in the middle 1990s. Remember it then collapsed with the Asian financial crisis, and did not recover for a long time with the 2001 9/11 attack on the Twin Tower in New York and SARS in 2003. People who have upgraded and bought properties near or beyond their income levels were trapped with high mortgage instalments and lowered value of their properties. In a period of boom, never overreach yourselves. Boom and bust is in the nature of business cycles. You must be able to ride through a recession and emerge the better for it.

This is how Singapore’s GIC and Temasek have been able to increase its value of its assets. In a recession we hang on. As the boom gets too intoxicating, we sell part of our shares and other assets and keep cash. We did before this last crash in the stock markets. When international banks in Switzerland and America, UBS, Citi-Group, Merrill-Lynch, needed cash, we had the cash to invest S$22 billion in three of them. When the share prices of these banks recover that S$22 billion investments, it will be worth S$50 to S$70 billion. But never believe that assets will always go up. There will be downturns. And so we must have these reserves to see us through these troughs. Unlike other countries, we have no natural resources to fall back on when we go to the IMF or World Bank or other creditors for credit when we are in a bad patch. Singapore has got to this level through hard work and thrift. We must continue in this mode. Only then, can we make sure no citizen will be left without food, shelter and medical care.

Together we have made it. Together we will go forward to build a global city in the tropics.


:banana::cheers::banana::banana:

DRSG --this is the Bloomberg take on the very SAME GDP revised forecast news you have noted above & they are not as happy as you !!

Singapore Cuts 2008 GDP Estimate on Global Slowdown (Update1)

By Shamim Adam

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore lowered its 2008 economic growth forecast, citing concern the U.S., its biggest market, will slide into a recession in the first half of the year.

Gross domestic product will probably increase between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, lower than an earlier estimate of 4.5 percent and 6.5 percent, the trade ministry said in a statement today. The economy grew 7.7 percent in 2007.

``Current conditions suggest that the U.S. will likely enter a mild recession in the first half,'' the report said. Officials from the Group of Seven countries on Feb. 9 said the slowing U.S. economy may erode global growth and they forecast more turmoil in financial markets.

``The manufacturing and export data clearly shows that things are taking a turn for the worse,'' said Kit Wei Zheng, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Singapore. ``We are not very optimistic.''

The economy contracted an annualized 4.8 percent last quarter, worse that the Jan. 2 preliminary estimate for a 3.2 percent contraction. GDP expanded a revised 5.1 percent in the third quarter.

The Singapore dollar traded at 1.4208 against the U.S. currency at 8:20 a.m. in Singapore from 1.4188 before the report.

Asia is twice as reliant on exports as the rest of the world, with 60 percent of overseas sales ultimately destined for the U.S., Europe and Japan. South Korea and Taiwan have already warned that easing demand for semiconductors, mobile phones and computers portends weaker growth in 2008.

Electronics Exports

Singapore's $132 billion economy grew 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier after gaining a revised 9.5 percent in the previous three months. Economists expected 6 percent growth.

Singapore's manufacturing climbed 0.2 percent in the last three months of 2007 from a year earlier, the smallest increase in 18 quarters.

The island's electronic exports are mired in the worst slump in five years, falling each month since February 2007, while a drop in drugs output, which underpinned the island's production growth in the earlier part of last year, exacerbated the decline in manufacturing.

Singapore's services industry climbed 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after gaining a revised 8.5 percent in the previous three-month period.

Demand for financial services may weaken as turmoil in global markets and the subprime-mortgage crisis in the U.S. worsen, economists said.