Property Market Trends #2 [Archive] - Page 9

shctaw

April 23rd, 2008, 01:51 AM

经过去年的一轮暴涨后，新加坡已经超越东京和香港，成为亚洲豪宅价格最昂贵的城市。

　　根据花旗私人银行（Citi Private Bank）和莱坊（KnightFrank）发表的全球财富报告，去年，新加坡的豪宅价格暴涨了31％，达到每平方英尺1197英镑（约合3240新元）。这在全球主要城市中排名第八，在亚洲则高居第一。

　　就连寸土如金的东京，豪宅的平均价格也只有每平方英尺1141英镑，在全球豪宅价格排行榜中名列第九。至于香港最昂贵的豪宅价格，也只是平均每平方英尺988英镑，在全球位列第14。

　　莱坊新加坡研究部主管麦俊荣说，去年乌节路一带推出的一些优质豪华共管公寓项目，包括瑞吉居（St Regis）和卓锦豪庭（Orchard Residences），推动新加坡最顶尖的豪宅价格，平均上涨至每平方英尺3500元左右。

去年，新加坡的豪宅价格暴涨了31％，涨幅也是亚洲国家当中最高的。这份报告书指出，去年多个主要环球金融中心，特别是税务条件优惠的城市，都出现豪宅价格显著上涨的现象。

　　除了新加坡，伦敦豪宅价格也暴涨29％，达到每平方英尺3025英镑。这让伦敦成为全世界豪宅价格最昂贵的城市，超越有“富人天堂”之称的摩纳哥（Monaco）及美国纽约的曼哈顿（Manhattan）。

　　其他豪宅价格显著上涨的金融中心，还包括纽约（上升25％）和迪拜（上升24％）。

豪宅价格和各国富裕人士增加有关

　　这份报告也指出，豪宅价格和流动资产达一百万美元的高身家人士（High Net Worth Individuals）之间有非常密切的关系。

　　去年，中国的有钱人增加了14％，印度增加9％，新加坡、阿根廷、哈萨克斯坦（Kazakhstan)和阿拉伯联合酋长国（UAE）都增加了8％。

　　莱坊私宅研究部主管贝利（Liam Bailey）说，一旦人们手头宽裕了，往往会购买第二间房子作为投资，或买一间休闲用途的度假屋。

　　他认为，中欧、东欧、中国、印度、韩国和其他亚洲经济体新崛起的一批富裕人士，还没有对“第二间房子市场”发挥全部的影响力。

　　他相信，未来十年内有关市场的增长，将远远超越过去十年有关市场的增长。

尽管美国在去年底发生了次贷危机，但一整年来说，美国仍是有钱人增长最快的国家。去年，美国的有钱人增加了12万，达到310万。

　　中国则增加了4万6000人，达到37万3000人，这几乎等同于德国的有钱人人数。日本和英国的有钱人人数都增加了超过2万人，分别达到76万5000人和55万7000人。

　　贝利说，期货价格的飞涨也为一些拥有丰富天然资源的国家，例如巴西、加拿大、澳大利亚和俄罗斯，制造了更多的富豪（各超过8万5000人）。

　　尽管最近的全球楼市都因为美国次贷危机而降温，但贝利认为，这应该不会影响到投资者对全球宏观房地产市场的观点，例如伦敦、纽约和上海都证明，几乎所有与全球经济挂钩的住宅市场，仍然能够赢得买家的信心。

　　“虽然今年的前景较不乐观，我们相信长期来说，豪宅市场仍然是值得投资的。像巴西、中国和印度等发展中市场，是所有投资者都应该注意的市场，它们的经济和财富增长都非常强劲。这些国家最近出现的价格暴涨，主要也是因为许多城市都缺少优质豪宅供应。”

bigbird72

April 23rd, 2008, 04:16 AM

Check with you guys.

Is it true that Banks only take 50% of rental income as supporting income for bank loan underwriting? For investment properties.

Thanks.

bigbird72

April 23rd, 2008, 04:22 AM

April 23, 2008, The Straits Times

Deferred payment scheme: Up to 4,200 homes may be dumped
No URA figure on units sold but experts say 30% could be offloaded

By Jessica Cheam

THE hugely popular deferred payment scheme (DPS) - scrapped last year - may now be a thing of the past, but what sort of shadow will it cast on the Singapore property market going forward? This has been the question on market watchers' lips since the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) revealed last week that as many as 29,250 homes offered under the DPS, including 5,760 unsold units as at the end of last month, will be completed from this year to 2013.

The concern is that speculators who bought homes under the DPS could dump their units at below-market prices, and this could drastically drag down overall sentiment. But just how many units are at risk of being sold, and how big will the impact be?

The URA said while it has the number of units approved under DPS, it does not have data on how many units were actually sold under the scheme. But four property experts The Straits Times spoke to estimated that up to 30 per cent of homes sold under the scheme last year could be held by speculators who may offload homes as the completion date nears. This translates to roughly 4,200 homes, going by a back-of-the-envelope calculation.

That is because out of the 23,490 units approved under the DPS and sold, only about 50 to 60 per cent - or roughly 14,000 - are likely to have been sold under the DPS, say property consultants and agency bosses from Knight Frank, Savills Singapore, HSR Property Group and PropNex.
The remaining 40 to 50 per cent were not bought under the DPS. Either developers did not eventually offer it, or buyers chose to pay via progressive payments, because buying a home with DPS usually means a further 2 to 3 per cent added to the price.

Next, property experts estimated that of the 14,000 or so homes sold under the DPS, about 20 to 30 per cent were probably sold to short-term investors or speculators. This means that as a group, speculators could be holding on to as many as 4,200 units.

Why are speculators prone to selling their units as they near completion? The DPS allowed buyers to pay just 10 or 20 per cent of the sale price upon purchase, with the rest due only when the unit received its temporary occupation permit (TOP) on completion.

Speculators would, therefore, typically opt for the DPS and hope to sell their units for a profit before the TOP. Any later and they would have to pay up for their homes by arranging for bank loans or other means of financing.

Industry experts were, however, divided on the impact these 4,200 homes would have on the market. Some maintained that panic selling is not likely, given Singapore's strong economic outlook, which is backed by upcoming mega projects such as the integrated resorts and the 2010 Youth Olympics.

Mr Eric Cheng, HSR's executive director, noted that homes set to be completed this year and next are less likely to be sold indiscriminately, since their owners are probably sitting on healthy gains. But those who bought at the peak of last year's buying frenzy, from April till October, are most likely to be at risk. These homes are likely to be completed after 2010.

Mr Ku Swee Yong, Savills' director of business development and marketing, said the sell-off will likely be staggered, because investors have different levels of holding power. Also, investors have bigger coffers compared to the last property peak in 1996, he added.

But he warned that if too many units in a single large project get dumped at below-market prices, overall market sentiment may be hit. Mr Colin Tan, Chesterton International's head (research and consultancy), thinks that the potential risk created by the DPS is relatively high.

He added that data on homes sold under the DPS should be collected and made public, so investors know 'what they're getting themselves into'. Yhe DPS was scrapped abruptly last October after a decade-long run to remove excessive speculation and ensure financial prudence in the property market.

IMC

April 23rd, 2008, 08:34 AM

Hi old birds here.. i am fascinated by the experience that you guys had here.. i am just a young punk who is very lucky in my first few property investment. I would like to get your advices here. My background is i am in mid 20s now, earning monthly salary. Considering that i am lucky to have a supportive parents, i able to purchase my first condo back in mid yr-2005, freehold property,The Imperial in Dhoby ghaut for really cheap price 1465 sf (@$ 900 psf). I think for this property i gained roughly gained 100% capital gained by now. I have been renting this property for almost 2 yrs now, just few weeks ago i extended the contract for another 2 yrs @ $7,250/mth.

Second property that i bought is in 3rd quarter 2006, Citylights 1313 sf (@$640 psf). I also think for this property, i can easily sell it for ($1200-$1300 psf) at this current market, considering my unit is 3 bedder unit at super high floor (35 storey n above). Currently renting it for ~$5.8k/mth, for 2 yrs contract.

Third property that i bought is just a 4 bed-room HDB at dover in dec 2007. Which i am currently staying. I paid 50k above valuation for this unit. It is expensive though, but the unit is nicely renovated. Condo looks alike. No diff with condo interior, i love every corner of the unit. Unfortunately, i am posted to overseas now, so i ve to rent out 2 of the rooms, and lock the master bed-room just in case that i need a room if i go back to spore. I able to rent it out to friends of mine, for 1.6k/mth (inclusive part-time maid, who come once a week).

The advise and question that i want to ask is? Why should i bear with the downturn in property price in the future, if i can cash in the profit now? Currently i calculate that i can easily cash in about 2.2 -2.3 million in profit. I have asked my banker, for aussie dollar bond, which expires in 2013 by goldman zach or Commonwealth bank, can easily give me yield about 8-8.1% yield. Considering that i want to move to aussie in the next 10 yrs, thus i wont be exposed to currency risk.
Should i cash out from my property and move my money to bond?
I can easily enjoy the bond yield without so much worry n trouble to pay off my mortgage, n securing my tenant.

hi darwisk,

glad that u r doing well. i am in some smiliar situation as u but definitely not as good. have 2 condos in river valley: one 900+ sqft and one 1600 sq ft. larger unit is rented out and i am born in 1972.

was lucky to obtain love $ for property investment. though on asset, i am quite well off, in reality i do feel poor. maybe i am driving a beemer and have a maid. maybe my job doesnt pay well etc. i bought the properties in 1999 and 2005. all time low in both occasions. so we do share a little in common.

if i were u, i will definitely offload 1 properties, whichever is sellable. shares market is going to drop. the cash receivable can be better invest in shares for a better return. i think all properties in spore are disposable, which can always buy back with the exception of the sail. i miss the opportunity to buy the sail in 2004. couldnt locate the showroom car park. anyway, didnt know we will have the ir there then. regret till today.

last 2 weeks have been tough for me as i was tempted to buy the sail. the $ for a non-bay unit above 50th floor at $1850 psf and a bay unit above 50th floor at $2000 psf (stack 3 ... dont know real bay facing or not). after working out the sums, i didnt proceed ... why ? tired of the process in securing tenant. my luck in getting tenant is bad. lower floor and bad facing units always manage to get better rental than my units. this has been proven many times. i am tired of talking to agents. also, property is illiquid and hard to sell, unless the market is booming. if u prefer to hold property, suggest u transfer your portfolios to the sail.

there are many experts in this forum and i enjoy reading their posts though i cant quite catch u when they talk abt currency and interest rate. wish u all the best :).

to veru, macauvillager28, schtaw, hayata1972 etc: u guys are definitely brainy and rational. your presence and comments really add value and elevate this forum. cheers !

IMC

April 23rd, 2008, 08:35 AM

the sail should do well. best potential and view.

lincholia08

April 23rd, 2008, 09:51 AM

[QUOTE=IMC;19938601] my luck in getting tenant is bad. lower floor and bad facing units always manage to get better rental than my units. this has been proven many times.QUOTE]

Hi IMC,

Thanks for sharing your insights. Care to elaborate on what you mean by better rental? You mean the low floor and bad facing units get better value in psf than yours? Could it have happened cos your unit wasn't done up as nice? But if you are speaking of your rent ending up lower than asking rents on the mkt, I would say its pretty common.

kopiluver

April 23rd, 2008, 11:16 AM

Hi Kopi luver,

I am a bit blur looking at your analysis. I believe your $458k. Is based on capital gain that you put based on 7% p.a. And avg rental yield of 7%. He2, this has not included the mortgage interest. My mortgage interest for my imperial, takes about 25% of my rental yield.

I can see that from your analysis, if you put your money in bond issued by commonwealth, i can get bond yield about 8.5% p.a. Which matures in 2011. Well, i am not too sure too, on whether the property price can hold here for a while more. I hope what happen in the market is just price correction, and the property price will increase a bit more, before it will reach its peak in 2010-2011.

However, from my view and gut feeling, looking at the global inflation rate in energy and commodity. It looks like, the only way for property value is to go up. There is no way property will drop in this current economic situation. I believe, i have not yet tested in any property downturn which happened back in 1996-2004. I hope it won't come anytime soon though.

This has put me in dilemma on whether i should cash out my unit now. For your information, i am not singaporean. I am foreigner who has been staying in Spore for almost 12 yrs by now. (moved here since i was 14 yrs old).

1st question... if u are here snce 14yo... did u do NS??? NO? Then...

OK. Just follwo ur instinct.. SELL! PERIOD![/B]. Dr Tony Tan says it's the WORST recession in 30yrs yet! But I aint gonna sell yet... not unless the price is right(no lelong)

As for the rest reading... $458K represent 7% (inflationary/capital) gains plus current rental yield...

Knock off 25% as interest for using OPM... the nett is still alot more decent than the 8.5% thingy...

Nobody can guarantee that in the next 3 yrs SG property will perform the (below) avg of 7% -or- 11% -or- 15% (or kick our own [B]b*ck s*de if its 30% pa)

You can rework the nos and give urself 10% on ur bonds for all I care...

It's the AVERAGE for LONG TERM holdings... I reiterate... I dont speculate in real estate... its a permanent marriage.... a retirement plan... NO GET RICH SCHEME... more like a SURE RICH scheme if you know what you are doing...

AS for bonds, can some1 help me out here... anyone ever experienced a bond going boom-cik?

kopiluver

April 23rd, 2008, 12:06 PM

Ask yourself how low can it go?

$1000 psf? (If Sail sold at $1000 psf, Citylight will go to $700 psf)

Upside can hit $3000 psf. Very possible, that is what I am looking at in 2010. (If Sail go to $3000 psf do you think Citylight will hit $2500, I think very unlikely.):)

I will not look dumb if it hit $1000 psf. It is Robinson Sales all over again.:cheers:

At $1000 I pengsan liao! Choy! Choy! Pui! Pui! Luea Hou Shoi Kong Kor!

I beg to differ on this issue. My parents are very supportive in the idea of investing and finance. As long as i give them a good analysis and projected return and give them a worst case scenario analysis, they are willing to listen to my points and opinion.

I definitely bear a heavy burden on how to be responsible with the money. Thus in choosing my property investment, i always focus on the location which can be easily rented out to churn out the cash flow since the early stage.

I do not even drive in Singapore, eventhough i can afford to buy my car in cash without taking a loan. I think this is enough to tell on how thrifty i am. I do not stay in the condo that i bought. I stayed in 4 room flat in dover, which i just purchased a year ago.

If I had the means... I wld definitely encourage my kids to co-invest with me... give them $... NEVER! I'm more inclined toward BB72 way of handlng my future estate...

Parents always think highly of their kids, somehow.
When one use Other People's Money, one becomes their 'bitch' :lol:

Agreed. But how does it make u a "B****"" are u not a guy? Ouch!

Bro kopi you heard that?! you are already made.:cheers:

Bro shctaw is the one that bucks the trend... He will be the richers of them all..

For me frankly, i still need some time. I can only hope i reach near their levels.

Aim for the moon, land on mars.
- leonard k.

Shhhh!! I feel blessed... even tho I dont have boys.... nor Ferraris, nor Lambos, NOR 911S... used to drive a X1/9 Bertone tho (called it my Baby Ferrari). Nice no too! ER189E last saw it parked in a B'glow in the East (nr Siglap)

Tell you what guys, let me be optimistic for a minute. I have advertised on the ST papers on Sat, i have already had 9 visits from potential tenants for renting my place and a few that did not turn up. Only problem is my asking price is slightly high for the market now... If not it would have been gone on Sat already.

The problem is still contained. DO NOT PANIC, hold on to your seats cause it will be a bumpy ride.

Aim for the moon, land on mars.
- leonard k.

Like I told u Bro, the last week... I'm seeing lots of bargain hunters out of the woodwork. For the record in 2006 there were 77K new PRs... in 2007 230,000 new PRs registered... assuming only 80,000 need an apt/condo and the rest (150,000) comprise of spouses, kids and others who dont mind staying in HDB... bo kao... "APARTMENT NO ENOUGH..."

Joker...haha....

Seriously, I only give to those who I think cannot help themselves.

I won't give cash... will advocate:

"Give a man a fish... he feeds for a day...
Teach the man to fish... he NEVER goes hungry"

I'd rather give them a sewing machine or teach them to cook or clean..

Check with you guys.

Is it true that Banks only take 50% of rental income as supporting income for bank loan underwriting? For investment properties.

Thanks.

No... sometimes NONE

[QUOTE=IMC;19938601] my luck in getting tenant is bad. lower floor and bad facing units always manage to get better rental than my units. this has been proven many times.QUOTE]

Hi IMC,

Thanks for sharing your insights. Care to elaborate on what you mean by better rental? You mean the low floor and bad facing units get better value in psf than yours? Could it have happened cos your unit wasn't done up as nice? But if you are speaking of your rent ending up lower than asking rents on the mkt, I would say its pretty common.

It happens... sometimes not nec decor... sometimes smell... just personal experience!

My case, I prefer to have record rentals... dont mind 6 mths vacancy... net effect, I sometimes get less than similar lousy unit in total rannyal rents...

I have my reasons...

MacauVillager28

April 23rd, 2008, 12:29 PM

Like I told u Bro, the last week... I'm seeing lots of bargain hunters out of the woodwork. For the record in 2006 there were 77K new PRs... in 2007 230,000 new PRs registered... assuming only 80,000 need an apt/condo and the rest (150,000) comprise of spouses, kids and others who dont mind staying in HDB... bo kao... "APARTMENT NO ENOUGH..."
...
I was just looking up this stat today and thinking the same....
Maybe great minds think alike..:cheers:

All this negative headline news about DPS buyers selling (4k units estimated)... is irrelevant ultimately. The stat to look at is how many foreigners coming into SG this year...

Unfortunately, this is a delayed figure. But as Hayata's ad shows, there are still lots of people looking to rent. So need to keep looking at fundamentals, which is still good for now. As long as foreigners are coming and renting, then property price will be supported.

hayata1972

April 23rd, 2008, 01:36 PM

hi darwisk,

glad that u r doing well. i am in some smiliar situation as u but definitely not as good. have 2 condos in river valley: one 900+ sqft and one 1600 sq ft. larger unit is rented out and i am born in 1972.

was lucky to obtain love $ for property investment. though on asset, i am quite well off, in reality i do feel poor. maybe i am driving a beemer and have a maid. maybe my job doesnt pay well etc. i bought the properties in 1999 and 2005. all time low in both occasions. so we do share a little in common.

if i were u, i will definitely offload 1 properties, whichever is sellable. shares market is going to drop. the cash receivable can be better invest in shares for a better return. i think all properties in spore are disposable, which can always buy back with the exception of the sail. i miss the opportunity to buy the sail in 2004. couldnt locate the showroom car park. anyway, didnt know we will have the ir there then. regret till today.

last 2 weeks have been tough for me as i was tempted to buy the sail. the $ for a non-bay unit above 50th floor at $1850 psf and a bay unit above 50th floor at $2000 psf (stack 3 ... dont know real bay facing or not). after working out the sums, i didnt proceed ... why ? tired of the process in securing tenant. my luck in getting tenant is bad. lower floor and bad facing units always manage to get better rental than my units. this has been proven many times. i am tired of talking to agents. also, property is illiquid and hard to sell, unless the market is booming. if u prefer to hold property, suggest u transfer your portfolios to the sail.

there are many experts in this forum and i enjoy reading their posts though i cant quite catch u when they talk abt currency and interest rate. wish u all the best :).

to veru, macauvillager28, schtaw, hayata1972 etc: u guys are definitely brainy and rational. your presence and comments really add value and elevate this forum. cheers !

2 condos in river valley!!! You are definately doing better than darwisk, mind you, i had the chance to buy yong an park at 500+psf and i missed it because my wife said, it is too old and sucky.

Anyway, welcome to the 1972 clan. The rat pack.:applause:

Aim for the moon, land on mars.
- leonard k.

hayata1972

April 23rd, 2008, 01:38 PM

I was just looking up this stat today and thinking the same....
Maybe great minds think alike..:cheers:

All this negative headline news about DPS buyers selling (4k units estimated)... is irrelevant ultimately. The stat to look at is how many foreigners coming into SG this year...

Unfortunately, this is a delayed figure. But as Hayata's ad shows, there are still lots of people looking to rent. So need to keep looking at fundamentals, which is still good for now. As long as foreigners are coming and renting, then property price will be supported.

Yah, lord macau, good evening. Even today i'm still receiving calls..... SO DON'T PANIC! just put on your seatbelts cause its gonna be a bumpy ride.

Aim for the moon, land on mars.
- leonard k.

hayata1972

April 23rd, 2008, 01:41 PM

At $1000 I pengsan liao! Choy! Choy! Pui! Pui! Luea Hou Shoi Kong Kor!

If I had the means... I wld definitely encourage my kids to co-invest with me... give them $... NEVER! I'm more inclined toward BB72 way of handlng my future estate...

Agreed. But how does it make u a "B****"" are u not a guy? Ouch!

Shhhh!! I feel blessed... even tho I dont have boys.... nor Ferraris, nor Lambos, NOR 911S... used to drive a X1/9 Bertone tho (called it my Baby Ferrari). Nice no too! ER189E last saw it parked in a B'glow in the East (nr Siglap)

Like I told u Bro, the last week... I'm seeing lots of bargain hunters out of the woodwork. For the record in 2006 there were 77K new PRs... in 2007 230,000 new PRs registered... assuming only 80,000 need an apt/condo and the rest (150,000) comprise of spouses, kids and others who dont mind staying in HDB... bo kao... "APARTMENT NO ENOUGH..."

I won't give cash... will advocate:

"Give a man a fish... he feeds for a day...
Teach the man to fish... he NEVER goes hungry"

I'd rather give them a sewing machine or teach them to cook or clean..

No... sometimes NONE

[QUOTE=lincholia08;19939746]

It happens... sometimes not nec decor... sometimes smell... just personal experience!

My case, I prefer to have record rentals... dont mind 6 mths vacancy... net effect, I sometimes get less than similar lousy unit in total rannyal rents...

I have my reasons...
Good evening, bro kopi.

hayata1972

April 23rd, 2008, 01:45 PM

Baby

April 23rd, 2008, 02:46 PM

hi darwisk,

last 2 weeks have been tough for me as i was tempted to buy the sail. the $ for a non-bay unit above 50th floor at $1850 psf and a bay unit above 50th floor at $2000 psf (stack 3 ... dont know real bay facing or not). after working out the sums, i didnt proceed ... why ? tired of the process in securing tenant. my luck in getting tenant is bad. lower floor and bad facing units always manage to get better rental than my units. this has been proven many times. i am tired of talking to agents. also, property is illiquid and hard to sell, unless the market is booming. if u prefer to hold property, suggest u transfer your portfolios to the sail.

$2000 psf for stack 3 at above 50th floor ? - You sure ? This is even better than Singapore Sale + Robinson Sale + Christmas Sail !!!

Low floor, bad facing units get better rental ? Woh !!! Then I should buy the worst unit in Sail then !!!

shctaw

April 23rd, 2008, 03:41 PM

$2000 psf for stack 3 at above 50th floor ? - You sure ? This is even better than Singapore Sale + Robinson Sale + Christmas Sail !!!

Low floor, bad facing units get better rental ? Woh !!! Then I should buy the worst unit in Sail then !!!

Baby,

I saw that ads in ST classified about 2-3 weeks ago, I tried calling whole morning & afternoon, but no one pick up the phone.

The price may be wrong. I think the ads put down $2.2 mio for stack 3. (cannot remember clearly.)

I did not call anymore as I do not want to add stress to the seller.

PS: Low floor good rental? I do not mind. Anyone want #04? $4500 can liao.

lincholia08

April 23rd, 2008, 04:12 PM

Baby,

I saw that ads in ST classified about 2-3 weeks ago, I tried calling whole morning & afternoon, but no one pick up the phone.

The price may be wrong. I think the ads put down $2.2 mio for stack 3. (cannot remember clearly.)

I did not call anymore as I do not want to add stress to the seller.

PS: Low floor good rental? I do not mind. Anyone want #04? $4500 can liao.

Shctaw... pls dont spoil mkt leh :lol:

shctaw

April 23rd, 2008, 04:19 PM

Shctaw... pls dont spoil mkt leh :lol:

I bot $1Mio, at $4500/mth = $54000 annually. 5.4% liao.

U suggest lah? $5000 can?

lincholia08

April 23rd, 2008, 04:21 PM

5000 better cos 300 conservancy :lol:

lincholia08

April 23rd, 2008, 04:22 PM

OHH.. paiseh... mine 2 bedder.. yours is 1. 4500 is good price for 1 bedder. An agent just called me saying icon 1 bedders asking 5k now

shctaw

April 23rd, 2008, 04:30 PM

All my units 1 bedder. I thought easier to rent out mah. If cannot rent can stay also mah.

Sell also easy mah.

lincholia08

April 23rd, 2008, 04:41 PM

Thats true.. risk is spread out by owning more one bedders than 1 big unit

MacauVillager28

April 23rd, 2008, 05:26 PM

OK, this is about HK, but I think the same could apply to SG.
This is in response about expats in SG/Asia....

SCMP, Property, 23 April 2008.
Office and luxury homes markets boom
Despite recession jitters, analysts say strong demand and tight supply will boost sectors.

- Property consultants remain bullish on HK real estate market, pointing to record-breaking rental deals in grade A office and luxury residential sectors.
- Analyst said first quarter performance of the two sectors far better than expected, thanks to surprisingly strong demand from multinationals and limited supply. Rentals expected to rise further as no change in either of these two positive factors expected.
- "Earlier market expectations of a downturn in the office sector were overly pessimistic" said Gilbert Wan, assoc dir at CBRE. "Demand from FIs for expansion remains strong and the office supply is tight".
- Grade A office rentals in Central continued to record double-digit growth in first quarter, rising 14pc from 4Q, according to reserach by Colliers. Simon Lo, dir at Colliers said sustained strong growth in Central office rent was due to limited supply.
- Demand saw vacancy rate of Central offices drop to a historical low of 0.86pc by end of last month from 1.4pc at the end of last year. Mr Lo expects rents to rise a further 20pc by end of this year IF global economy remains stable.
- CBRE says average effective rents of grade A in Central rose 9.4pc to HKD124.05 psf in 1Q. It expects rents to rise a further 20-25pc in next 8 months.
- Examples include Spain's BBVA expanding from 8000 sf to 3000 sf at Two IFC, undeterred by rents that have risen to HKD170psf.
- With tight office supply, even worse case would not see rents retreat by more than 5pc
- Similarly buoyant sentiment is evident in the luxury residential leasing and serviced apartments. "Demand remains very strong" said Edina Wong, Sr Dir at Savills. "There is no indication at this stage of any significant headcount reductions by IB". Ms Wong says demand for high-end residential leasing expected to stay strong. Savills reports average rents of townhouses and luxury flats on HK Island last month reached record highs of about HKD55 and HKD41psf respectively.
- Serviced apartment remained buoyant in 1Q with core areas highly sought after. "Occupancy rates of luxury serviced apartments reached 97 to 98pc" Ms Wong said. Limited supply was the main driver. On average rents greaw almost 9pc in the 1Q.
- Serviced apartment rents on HK Island rose 19pc in 1Q compared with year earlier according to Anne-Marie Sage, Regional Dir at Jones Lang LaSalle. "We believe this trend will continue due to demand and short supply" Ms Sage said. "We may see a slow-down towards end of the year with US subprime having an impact on people relocating to HK, but at this point we are not seeing signs of this".
- "Corporations are likely to continue deploying their best professionals or management to Asia, making sure the growth engine in the region remains at full speed" said Mr Wan (CBRE).
- Sources said SHK Properties leased two penthouses at Four Seasons Place - of 2800sf and 3600sf - at about HKD170psf.

lincholia08

April 23rd, 2008, 05:39 PM

- Sources said SHK Properties leased two penthouses at Four Seasons Place - of 2800sf and 3600sf - at about HKD170psf.

3600sf x (170/5) = SGD$122,400 per month => 1.4688 mill per year

Owning one penthouse like that is even better then being the CEO of billion dollar company :lol: but of course must be fully paid up

shctaw

April 23rd, 2008, 06:12 PM

3600sf x (170/5) = SGD$122,400 per month => 1.4688 mill per year

Owning one penthouse like that is even better then being the CEO of billion dollar company :lol: but of course must be fully paid up

Wah! Correct or not?

Is $122,400 anually?

Hong Kong rental super expensive.

kopiluver

April 24th, 2008, 04:59 AM

Wah! Correct or not?

Is $122,400 anually?

Hong Kong rental super expensive.

Super Uber Lux I believe it to be true.

HKD 170psf = SGD170/5 = S$34psf.... seems more like Orchard retail rentals... but I guess if economy is bursting at the seams... it would be possible for St Regis to achieve...

Spillover effect for Marina Bay (x3) to achieve half (S$17psf - I believe possible... in the near future... 5 or 10 or 15 yrs into the future... if cannot then 30yrs lah... I plan to still be around to collect that rental cheque ma!)

Bros if HK can do it... so can we!

Veru

April 24th, 2008, 02:48 PM

BTW EUR USD cross passed 1.60 !! History in our lifetime dudes ! Now I am on the rollercoaster to ----> "this could be Heaven or this could be Hell' ---> hang on for the ride ................ BUT with a 1.65 stop-loss ----shudder that ride to a dead halt dude :-( Wake up Uncle Kopi --wherst art thou bro shcatw and young-hayata-father-of-2??

Today -->LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The euro consolidated its earlier losses following a much weaker-than-expected German business survey while the yen picked up as European bourses traded lower.

The Ifo research institute said its April business climate index for Germany fell to 102.4 from 104.8 in March, well below analysts' forecasts of a decline to 104.3.

In recent months, economists have been surprised at the strength of Ifo surveys, providing support to the idea that the euro zone economy has "decoupled" from the United States and will weather the credit crunch relatively unscathed.

But Thursday's data and Wednesday's weak euro zone manufacturing PMI survey mean many analysts are now questioning this idea, boosting expectations the European Central Bank will be forced to cut interest rates in the coming months.

"Today's softer European sentiment numbers are the first sign that Europe will also be hit by the global slowdown over the medium term," said Alina Anishchanka, currency strategist at UBS.

The news meant the euro moved well away from its all-time high of $1.6018 hit on Tuesday. ---> that was my entry point boys !

Aside from the weak European data, expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be about to end its aggressive round of interest rate cutting have also weighed on the single currency.

Markets anticipate the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter point next week but expectations are building that it could then refrain from any further cuts.

"If the Fed next week signals a need to pause in order to assess the impact of previous monetary easing, the dollar will rebound," UBS' Anishchanka said.

Versus the US Dollar, the Euro fell almost 1.5¢ to a one-week low of $1.5720 after the Ifo Institute's survey of 7,000 firms pointed to "a slower pace of business activity" in the world's third-largest economy.

The euro fell 1 percent to a one-week low of $1.5720, nearly three cents below Tuesday's record highs. Technical analysts said a break below key support at $1.5710 would open the door for further weakness.

landlubber

April 24th, 2008, 03:18 PM

OK, this is about HK, but I think the same could apply to SG.
This is in response about expats in SG/Asia....

- Similarly buoyant sentiment is evident in the luxury residential leasing and serviced apartments. "Demand remains very strong" said Edina Wong, Sr Dir at Savills. "There is no indication at this stage of any significant headcount reductions by IB". Ms Wong says demand for high-end residential leasing expected to stay strong. Savills reports average rents of townhouses and luxury flats on HK Island last month reached record highs of about HKD55 and HKD41psf respectively.

I know of a bank where less than 5% of announced cuts are in Asia. Basically negligible impact from a rental point of view.

bigbird72

April 24th, 2008, 05:27 PM

I know of a bank where less than 5% of announced cuts are in Asia. Basically negligible impact from a rental point of view.

i think there is a lagging effect. Look at HK & Sing. no major IPOs and M&A in Asia. Capital mkts not condusive. A few months of doing nothing, inv bankers will look redunant. So will the ECM, Sales & Trading, Prime Brokers, etc.

I dont think a headcount geared to take advantage of the capital mkts boom in 07, can survive, post-subprime with no cuts in 2008 & beyond. Just dont make sense.

Veru

April 25th, 2008, 03:57 AM

kopiluver

April 25th, 2008, 05:26 AM

Friends -- I am NOT trying to shanghai this forum into a FX discussion BUT while I twiddle my toes waiting to buy a stack 04 with 100% cash down at a "reasonable" price the funds waiting in the Sg bank HAVE to be deployed in a profitable manner in SGD terms --- thus the switch from USD to EUR at 1.22, then the switch back to USD at 1.60 and then eventually/hopefully/maybe a final switch into SGD to fling at an unwilling stack 04 seller (who has not read Baby's masterly analysis of the best stacks) and grab my "precious" ( a la Gollum in Lord of the Rings ) ....... BUT if the forum is bored with my silly time-passing then I shall abstain from these solitary musings .. which DO have a purpose tho in getting Baby/littlepig (not sleepy Uncle Kopi or richy-rich bro schtaw) to take a risk & make some quick moolaah (or lose some) while waiting like me for that PRECIOUS stack 04 !!

No worries... but it does seem abit OT... perhaps u shd start a thread abt FX and all the FX gurus can teach newbies a thing or two...

Let me try to understand u here

BTW EUR USD cross passed 1.60 !! History in our lifetime dudes ! Now I am on the rollercoaster to ----> "this could be Heaven or this could be Hell' ---> hang on for the ride ................ BUT with a 1.65 stop-loss ----!!

You bought 1EUR at USD1.22
Sold ea EUR for USD1.60 making a 31.15% gain in ____ days

But at the same time u put a stop loss at USD1.65 (meaning if it went above USD1.65 and crashed back to 1.65 it will auto sell so u maintain ur profits right?)

Nice... :)

shctaw

April 25th, 2008, 05:45 AM

No worries... but it does seem abit OT... perhaps u shd start a thread abt FX and all the FX gurus can teach newbies a thing or two...

Let me try to understand u here

You bought 1EUR at USD1.22
Sold ea EUR for USD1.60 making a 31.15% gain in ____ days

But at the same time u put a stop loss at USD1.65 (meaning if it went above USD1.65 and crashed back to 1.65 it will auto sell so u maintain ur profits right?)

Nice... :)

Veru is the expert in FX.:)

I bot USDSGD at 1.3500 for physical delivery. No stop lost nothing. Just to unwind position.

Feel like catching a falling knife. My export company have sold USD/SGD since 1.8000 level since realy 2003. Have been selling consistently without holding on any USD $ in our company account. I have a smart advisor whom suggested to cover all money in company to SGD and buy SGD assets. That move make a fantastic gain in company profit.

Strong SGD also mean more expensive to buy home now in SG. Tourism will be hit with strong SGD $. I suspect market will start buying USDSGD when Casino is ready.

DRSG

April 25th, 2008, 05:57 AM

Come to SG and put your money here.GIC can invest for you.Even UBS and big banks need our help.Thats the way to become rich.

lincholia08

April 25th, 2008, 06:21 AM

Super Uber Lux I believe it to be true.

HKD 170psf = SGD170/5 = S$34psf.... seems more like Orchard retail rentals... but I guess if economy is bursting at the seams... it would be possible for St Regis to achieve...

Spillover effect for Marina Bay (x3) to achieve half (S$17psf - I believe possible... in the near future... 5 or 10 or 15 yrs into the future... if cannot then 30yrs lah... I plan to still be around to collect that rental cheque ma!)

Bros if HK can do it... so can we!

But the report only states 2 such properties rented out at that rate. May not apply across the board. Perhaps the Sail penthouses can do that.. Some of the penthouses are duplex with own lap pool. Its like your own bunglow in the sky.

DRSG

April 25th, 2008, 07:57 AM

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the real estate statistics for the 1st Quarter 2008.

SUMMARY

Prices of private residential, office, shop and industrial properties increased by 3.7%, 1.1%, 2.6% and 3.4% respectively in the 1st Quarter 2008.

Rentals of private residential, office, shop and industrial properties increased by 6.0%, 7.3%, 1.0% and 5.7% respectively in the 1st Quarter 2008.

The rates of increase in prices for all properties and the rates of increase in rentals for private residential, office and industrial properties have moderated in the 1st Quarter 2008 as compared to 4th Quarter 2007.

Baby

April 25th, 2008, 12:53 PM

You bought 1EUR at USD1.22
Sold ea EUR for USD1.60 making a 31.15% gain in ____ days

But at the same time u put a stop loss at USD1.65 (meaning if it went above USD1.65 and crashed back to 1.65 it will auto sell so u maintain ur profits right?)

IF SGD continue appreciate against USD, isn't holding USD make it more expensive to buy stack 04 ?

Veru

April 25th, 2008, 02:50 PM

No worries... but it does seem abit OT... perhaps u shd start a thread abt FX and all the FX gurus can teach newbies a thing or two...

Uncle kopi for the record -- in FX I am a TOTAL NOVICE & newbie
Let me try to understand u here

You bought 1EUR at USD1.22
Sold ea EUR for USD1.60 making a 31.15% gain in ____ days

Yes --Its my Sail money for my Stack 04 (when I get a good seller)

But at the same time u put a stop loss at USD1.65 (meaning if it went above USD1.65 and crashed back to 1.65 it will auto sell so u maintain ur profits right?)

Nice... :)

Yes -- but I need more & more SGD to pay the "greedy" Stack 04 sellers :ohno:

Veru

April 25th, 2008, 02:53 PM

IF SGD continue appreciate against USD, isn't holding USD make it more expensive to buy stack 04 ?

Baby-Baby -- its tricky now --> not sure how the SGD will move against the USD -- next week may show a direction

kopiluver

April 26th, 2008, 11:10 AM

Uncle kopi for the record -- in FX I am a TOTAL NOVICE & newbie

Yes --Its my Sail money for my Stack 04 (when I get a good seller)

Yes -- but I need more & more SGD to pay the "greedy" Stack 04 sellers :ohno:

31.15% is no mean feat for a novice! Property only went up 3.7% in 1Q, u did 10X better in less time! :cheers:

Veru

April 26th, 2008, 12:40 PM

31.15% is no mean feat for a novice! Property only went up 3.7% in 1Q, u did 10X better in less time! :cheers:

Sorry to disappoint Uncle Kopi but 30% p.a. (not in Q1) :lol:

stingraytan

April 27th, 2008, 07:59 AM

Sorry to disappoint Uncle Kopi but 30% p.a. (not in Q1) :lol:

yah, but the 3.7 is also annualised rates.. :)

shctaw

April 27th, 2008, 10:48 AM

URA rejected the highest bid for residential site at Choa Chu Kang Road/ Woodlands Road.

URA did not award the site to the highest bidder of $61 million or $1748 psm or $162 psf.

Even at $162 psf the eventual break even mark will be around $500 psf if we assume construction cost to be around $350 psf.

Correct me if I am wrong. Is this the first rejection since 2007?

hayata1972

April 27th, 2008, 02:58 PM

IMC

April 28th, 2008, 07:18 AM

IMC

April 28th, 2008, 07:24 AM

Shctaw... pls dont spoil mkt leh :lol:

there is indeed such ad. maybe typo or the owner really want to get out first. not sure outcome though.

kopiluver

April 28th, 2008, 07:32 AM

Sorry to disappoint Uncle Kopi but 30% p.a. (not in Q1) :lol:

How long did it take... if all within 4Q07 or 3Q07 or 2H07... still more decent than most lah!

yah, but the 3.7 is also annualised rates.. :)

Sorry to disapoint... but it's a compounded Quarter increase.

As @end 4Q07 index was 170.8 (x 1.037 = 177.2 that's where it stands @end 1Q08)

If prices go up 10% a quarter(tis aint annualised)... it DOESN'T just go up 40% pa. It actually goes up by 1.04 x 1.04 x 1.04 x 1.04 = 1.4641 or 46.41%:banana:

Hence the annualised figure u speak of shd be 15.64% (& not 14.8%).... Therefore, even if the next 3Qs perform JUST AS BAD(ie 3.7% per Q only)... we are still looking at 15.64% annual cap gain... is that good or is that GREAT?:banana:

If u doubt my computation, just go back to the 4Qs announced for 2007, and work out the 31% 2007 cap gain urself...

See BT article below:

Business Times - 25 Apr 2008

S'pore private home prices rise 3.7% in Q1

SINGAPORE - Singapore private home prices rose 3.7 per cent between January and March, the second straight quarter of slower growth as property sales slowed, government figures showed on Friday.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said the price index for private homes, an indicator of inflation that is already at 26-year highs, rose to 177.2 for the three months ended March, from 170.8 in the previous three-month period.

Private home prices jumped 31 percent in 2007 for the largest increase in eight years, but growth has slowed since the final quarter of 2007 while the Jan-March sales volume slumped to the lowest since 2003.

Moves by the government to cool the Singapore housing market, coupled with fears of a global economic downturn, have kept homebuyers away from showrooms and are expected to hit developers such as CapitaLand and City Developments. -- REUTERS

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Related article: http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-44.html

MacauVillager28

April 28th, 2008, 07:41 AM

[QUOTE=lincholia08;19939746]

it is timing and luck. all agents said my units were good and i believed so as i did some renovations. but sometimes, timing just no good.

My rentals (in HK) have also been below market also. However, the last one was top. That one I got possession in Oct (in new development), and waited 6-7 months to get it tho (tho I had other reasons for delay). Now rental is 33% higher. Hard to say if it was worth wait tho.. but over 2 year life the increase was prob worth it. But other done in Dec (a renewal) is now 20% below following rise.
Maybe part was not to 'dump' when supply was hi on possession (800 units available). I was also lucky as during period, capital value and rentals were also on rise (25% ?). And renovating is hard to say (guess min must at least be nice and clean). If you do it up really well, you could ask for more but some may not like new decor, so need to wait...

kopiluver

April 28th, 2008, 07:51 AM

Pls help me find the orig... it goes something like this:

After graduate school a banker (or lawyer, professional something like that) met an old classmate who never fails to fail most subjects especially maths!

But this "failure" was driving a US$2M super car, lives in a 10acre mansion, with horses and lakes...

And so the banker asks what is friend did for a living that was so good... his rich ex-failure friend said:

You know I found this wonderful product / gadget / widget that I buy for a dollar and sell A LOT of it for USD50... and BOY! You wouldn't believe what a 10% margin can do for yor bottom line!

MacauVillager28

April 28th, 2008, 07:52 AM

kopiluver

April 28th, 2008, 08:24 AM

Uncle Kopi..
I've always suspected URA PPI much delayed, and recently found out why (BT article recently)

Dont believe everything u read!

Property price data can yield different conclusions

April 24, 2008

Same figures in flash estimate of property prices can be read very differently

THE property price index (PPI) for the first quarter of 2008 will be released soon - and is unlikely to differ from an earlier flash estimate of a 4 per cent increase, despite developers starting to cut prices for new projects.

So how useful is the PPI? Does data overload cause confusion?

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) uses the moving-average method to compute the weights assigned to the various sub-indices. The weights, updated quarterly, are based on the moving average mix of transactions over the past 12 quarters.

^^^^
12 quarters is past 3 years !!! They're still including last years big hike in 1H !!
So last year, prices moved by less than suspected. Now it is overestimating.

Actually... last year... prices moved MORE than expected/reported... cos the figure was pulled down by the previous 2 yrs figures... That explains why ppl here actually reported making 100%+ cap gain on properties they bought in 2H06.

This also makes "FLASH ESTIMATES" more accurate cos you have 50%(or whatever - see my weighted estimates below) of it already determined in the previous 11 Qtrs... hence wont lao qui if estimate is 15% when actual is only 1% mah!

If URA used own figures when they removed DPS, when sub-prime raging, they were SO looking at historical figures and not understanding market. Market peaked in July. Best way is only to look at current sales from developer (ie Media). URA's index, far from making market more transparent, has completely mislead investors now and are basically meaningless if making investment today.

Actually they quite smart in using a WEIGHTED moving avg... without telling us the weights... cld be 50% in current Q, 30% in previous 3Q, 15% in previous 5Q to 8Q and 5% in 9Q to 12Q. (Specuation... not bible truth)

That smoothens out the "panic" when prices sprial up... as well as nosedives...

And we SGeans being conditioned to be Triple-Ks... noooo not Ku Klux Klan... KiaSu, KiaSi, Kiabor :lol: just have to accept lor!

But I agree with you... we should have actual avg Qterly transacted psf based on the various core areas... so that numbers ppl like u & me can make accurate decisions... hence my earlier call for precise data...

MacauVillager28

April 28th, 2008, 11:06 AM

Actually they quite smart in using a WEIGHTED moving avg... without telling us the weights... cld be 50% in current Q, 30% in previous 3Q, 15% in previous 5Q to 8Q and 5% in 9Q to 12Q. (Specuation... not bible truth)

That smoothens out the "panic" when prices sprial up... as well as nosedives...

And we SGeans being conditioned to be Triple-Ks... noooo not Ku Klux Klan... KiaSu, KiaSi, Kiabor :lol: just have to accept lor!

But I agree with you... we should have actual avg Qterly transacted psf based on the various core areas... so that numbers ppl like u & me can make accurate decisions... hence my earlier call for precise data...

Not disclosing weights maybe OK when you talk about currency (ie speculators mustnt know which level to attack). But for property, you are misleading end-users. Based on 1Q growth (plus Q3-Q407), you may feel you can pay say 15% more for a property originally sold in July 07 as the PPI indicates market has gone up more. But if you look at prices of actual developments, you'll be mad to pay more than July 07 (more likely 10% discount).
It may dispel 'panic' either up or down cycles... but I fear URA believed their own figures when they removed DPS !!
If going by this, 2Q07 may still show a small q-o-q rise. It should definitely drop by 3Q. This is a ONE YEAR delay.

kopiluver

April 28th, 2008, 11:43 AM

Not disclosing weights maybe OK when you talk about currency (ie speculators mustnt know which level to attack). But for property, you are misleading end-users. Based on 1Q growth (plus Q3-Q407), you may feel you can pay say 15% more for a property originally sold in July 07 as the PPI indicates market has gone up more. But if you look at prices of actual developments, you'll be mad to pay more than July 07 (more likely 10% discount)..

The above I agree totally! I have no doubt some ppl were still contributing to 1Qs 3.7% based on 3Q07 & 4Q07 "official" figures.

It may dispel 'panic' either up or down cycles... but I fear URA believed their own figures when they removed DPS !!.

This ... not quite... they actually see the peak and had to slow the mkt without the double whammy of sub-prime... while the public only see their "officially" released figures... if DPS not scrapped, public will still be buying like no tomorrow...

Otherwise, with DPS which supports speculation (since no need to pay up except 5% till 3-4yrs later). Speculators will be hard hit when it dawns on them that tis yr will not see 30%+ cap gain... developers will also cont to ask ever increasing record prices...

If going by this, 2Q07 may still show a small q-o-q rise. It should definitely drop by 3Q. This is a ONE YEAR delay.

Whether is a 1 or 2 yr delay... or perhaps just 1 or 2 qtrs, it all depends on the weightage attached...

In casino, dealer always wins.... in property, ah gong has crystal ball but man in the street can still play... just, caveat emptor!

arthur

April 28th, 2008, 07:09 PM

I notice quite a few launches last week judging from the advertisement by the developer. Mostly are small projects and located at District 15.

Baby

April 29th, 2008, 03:42 AM

I notice quite a few launches last week judging from the advertisement by the developer. Mostly are small projects and located at District 15.

With DPS ?

Now with DPS, also nobody buy.

Bad property market, with DPS also nobody dare to touch.

Only when property market boom, then DPS demand will go up.

DRSG

April 29th, 2008, 03:52 AM

Pppl buy selected units.All PH at Ambrosia snapped up.The lousy units on lower floors cant sell 'cos lousy thats why.Ppl who buy now are more discerning not that they dont have the cash.

BengBeng

April 29th, 2008, 04:45 AM

Pppl buy selected units.All PH at Ambrosia snapped up.The lousy units on lower floors cant sell 'cos lousy thats why.Ppl who buy now are more discerning not that they dont have the cash.

Agreed with you! Buyers are coming out......equities market, more or less stable as compare to last few months. Yes, Selective buying. :banana:

Went to Jalan Loyang Besar's project. Aston Res......pricing from $2.68 - $2.75million. So called 28 Bungalows....10 already taken when I went there last weekend. Looks like this place will not be so ulu anymore. Of course, very near to the beach.

DRSG

April 29th, 2008, 04:49 AM

Did I hear wrongly?Was I deaf?Some predicted April to be Doomsday for stock collapse.2 days more to May.Not happening leh!

arthur

April 29th, 2008, 05:22 AM

With DPS ?

Now with DPS, also nobody buy.

Bad property market, with DPS also nobody dare to touch.

Only when property market boom, then DPS demand will go up.lots of buyers with ready cash are sitting on the fence now. All wants a clearer picture of the market before going in.

arthur

April 29th, 2008, 05:23 AM

DRSG

April 29th, 2008, 05:48 AM

Up coming Parc Seabreeze.The choice units are the four bedders over at the south east facing side and above 15 to 16th floor and up.Those facing south east may get some view block by PP and Cote d'Azur.Anticipating this launch.Booking already started.

BengBeng

April 29th, 2008, 06:20 AM

Did I hear wrongly?Was I deaf?Some predicted April to be Doomsday for stock collapse.2 days more to May.Not happening leh!

April will be picking up. Should be better than the last 3 months performances for property. Let us wait and see!

Yeah, who is the wise guys who predicted April to be Doomsady. Then I wonder why Warren B. starts to buy stocks last month and this month? And DOW is moving near to 13,000!!

I am waiting for STI to break the resistance 3,300. And DOW to break the 13,000. That will mean the BULL is still holding, cheonging and bear will go back to its cave. Of course, it might go the other way. If it breaks 12,000 DOW, oh ho, you better run. Which I don't think it is happening.

PreciseDrive

April 29th, 2008, 07:41 AM

Record $3,125 psf Paid For Office Building In Volatile Market
Commerzbank unit buys 71 Robinson Rd for $743.8m
Arthur Sim
Business Times
Singapore
Tuesday, 29 April 2008

Commerz Real, a fully-owned subsidiary of Germany's Commerzbank, has bought 71 Robinson Road, setting a record in the process and perhaps heralding a new wave of office deals.

The price paid for the building, which was owned by a partnership of Lehman Brothers and Kajima Overseas Asia, was not disclosed by Commerz Real. But sources say it was $3,125 psf of net lettable area (NLA), or $743.8 million. This is 7.7% higher than the $2,900 psf of NLA paid for Hitachi Tower in January.

Lehman/Kajima acquired the building in October 2006 from SingTel for $163.4 million. A year later, the partnership said it would spend about $450 million, including the land cost of $163.4 million, to redevelop 71 Robinson Road into a 280,000 sqft (gross floor area) building to be completed by mid-2009.

While the selling price represents a healthy capital appreciation, it is understood that the acquisition comes with a coupon payment by Lehman/Kajima to Commerz Real amounting to 4.5% - or about the investment yield for Commerz Real for the duration of construction.

Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) was appointed by Lehman/ Kajima to market the development in late-2007. JLL managing director (SEA) Chris Fossick said marketing was done globally, with interest from both Singapore and international funds.

In terms of leasing, Mr Fossick said there are no pre-commitments yet but talks are going on with several parties.

Commerz Real was advised by CB Richard Ellis. Commerz Real management board member Hans- Joachim Kuehl said: 'We have seen strong interest from major financial institutions in the development and expect to attract rents in the region of $15 psf.'

The acquisition was made by Commerz Real's real estate fund hausInvest global which also owns 78 Shenton Way, bought in December 2007 for $650 million or $1,857 psf of NLA.

It is worth noting that 78 Shenton Way was sold by a joint venture between Credit Suisse and CLSA funds after they paid $348.5 million for it earlier in the same year.

JLL's Mr Fossick believes this year could see more such assets held by opportunistic funds go to core funds like Commerz Real.

By his reckoning, 2007 saw core funds acquire at least 10 office assets held by opportunistic funds. Larger deals include that by CLSA, which sold the SIA Building to German pension fund SEB.

Mr Fossick believes at least another 13 office assets could be targets for core funds, including DBS Towers 1 and 2. 'We could look back on 2008 and still see quite a lot of transactions despite the global credit crunch,' he said.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2008-04-29/asrob29_p1.jpg

shctaw

April 29th, 2008, 02:55 PM

Went to Jalan Loyang Besar's project. Aston Res......pricing from $2.68 - $2.75million. So called 28 Bungalows....10 already taken when I went there last weekend. Looks like this place will not be so ulu anymore. Of course, very near to the beach.

Aaaaaahhhhh............ Jalan Loyang Besar, a place I call home.:)

Everyday like going back to a quiet resort.

I almost bought Unit #15 at Aston Res, but market uncertainty make me scare scare.:lol: End up buying Watercrest for 25% of the price OF Aston Res.:)

hayata1972

April 30th, 2008, 01:58 AM

April will be picking up. Should be better than the last 3 months performances for property. Let us wait and see!

Yeah, who is the wise guys who predicted April to be Doomsady. Then I wonder why Warren B. starts to buy stocks last month and this month? And DOW is moving near to 13,000!!

I am waiting for STI to break the resistance 3,300. And DOW to break the 13,000. That will mean the BULL is still holding, cheonging and bear will go back to its cave. Of course, it might go the other way. If it breaks 12,000 DOW, oh ho, you better run. Which I don't think it is happening.

Question is what is Warren B. buying? Super blue chips? Normal Blue chips? Big caps? or Small caps? Enormous quantities? Big quantities or just a little bit here and there?

This old man is very wirly. Must look at what he does very carefully. Does not mean he buys means bear is gone. Unless he buys indescriminately, then definately the bottom is over. If not, he may have other reasons to buy certain counters at certain prices.

Aim at the stars, but don't land on your head.

- leonard k.

hayata1972

April 30th, 2008, 02:39 AM

Uncle Kopi..
I've always suspected URA PPI much delayed, and recently found out why (BT article recently)

Property price data can yield different conclusions

April 24, 2008

Same figures in flash estimate of property prices can be read very differently

THE property price index (PPI) for the first quarter of 2008 will be released soon - and is unlikely to differ from an earlier flash estimate of a 4 per cent increase, despite developers starting to cut prices for new projects.

So how useful is the PPI? Does data overload cause confusion?

Last week, The Straits Times headline for the story on the flash estimate was ‘Private homes sales recover in weak market’. In The Business Times, the headline was ‘Private home sales tumble, prices weaken’.

As confusing as it sounds, both headlines were technically correct.

One reason could be how data is interpreted and the level of optimism or pessimism - the same figures can be read very differently.

Consider the flash PPI for Q1, which increased despite the quarter being one of the worst in recent years for new sales. Yet the consensus appeared to be that the PPI could still rise this year.

The PPI is essentially a transaction-based index. Properties are split into segments to form sub-indices that are then used to calculate the PPI.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) uses the moving-average method to compute the weights assigned to the various sub-indices. The weights, updated quarterly, are based on the moving average mix of transactions over the past 12 quarters.

^^^^
12 quarters is past 3 years !!! They're still including last years big hike in 1H !!
So last year, prices moved by less than suspected. Now it is overestimating.

If URA used own figures when they removed DPS, when sub-prime raging, they were SO looking at historical figures and not understanding market. Market peaked in July. Best way is only to look at current sales from developer (ie Media). URA's index, far from making market more transparent, has completely mislead investors now and are basically meaningless if making investment today.

Lord Macau, who are the truely smart one that have spotted this. Hehe.. Actually we all know this but, pretend we don't know. Problem is if the stat board uses true figures rather than manipulated and customised figures, our property value will surely go to hell.

HK population by now should be> 7 million. Chinese majority of 95%. Therefore Hongkong Chinese = 6.65mil give and take.
SG population by now should be> 4.6 million. Resident population only around 3.6mil. Chinese majority of 75%.
Therefore Singapore Chinese = 2.7mil give and take.

Hongkongers have a higher average salary package compared to Singapore.

Hongkongers have a gambling culture when comes to speculative products.

Hongkongers have very high risk mentality compared to Singaporeans.

Taking all these into consideration, then we will surely understand why our property statistics cannot be too transparent.:nuts: Especially when the foreign players have stopped buying "period".:)

The problem lies with our very limited and "kiasi", "kiasu" local players that will not be able to lift up our property market, unless the market shows potential. No wonder HK property values still going up when we are "not" just taking a breather.

Hopefully i do not piss off too many people here, but just stating facts.

Aim at the stars, but don't land on your head.

- leonard k.

hayata1972

April 30th, 2008, 02:49 AM

Aaaaaahhhhh............ Jalan Loyang Besar, a place I call home.:)

Everyday like going back to a quiet resort.

I almost bought Unit #15 at Aston Res, but market uncertainty make me scare scare.:lol: End up buying Watercrest for 25% of the price OF Aston Res.:)

Bro Shctaw, you have done another smart buy.:) Congrads.

Aim at the stars, but don't land on your head.

- leonard k.

shctaw

April 30th, 2008, 02:53 AM

"kiasi", "kiasu" .

Kiasi cannot buy , Kiasu cannot buy & cannot sell. :lol:

I think property investor mindset must adjust toward Long Term Investment time bracket of 5-20 years.

If you compare Q to Q alot of people lost money, if you compare 10-20 time span, you will find majority of investors make money through rental income, capital gain while fighting inflation.

Property is probably the best no-brainer investment tool that will fight the decaying of our buying power. I was at NTUC fairprice E!Hub at Downtown East and I was shock to see a cup noddle for $3 and 4 hotdog for $3. All this food use to be $1-$2 just a few year ago.

Looking back, if inflaction is here to stay, property price only have one direction to go. Rental cannot be cheap if inflation is high, imagine renting a place for $1000 while a plate of Wonton Noddle is $3.50 in Hawker center.

Only risk will come when inflation cause recession if the spending power are over stretch.

I am still uncertain of the stock market, but property should remain a good bet.

hayata1972

April 30th, 2008, 03:05 AM

Kiasi cannot buy , Kiasu cannot buy & cannot sell. :lol:

I think property investor mindset must adjust toward Long Term Investment time bracket of 5-20 years.

If you compare Q to Q alot of people lost money, if you compare 10-20 time span, you will find majority of investors make money through rental income, capital gain while fighting inflation.

Property is probably the best no-brainer investment tool that will fight the decaying of our buying power. I was at NTUC fairprice E!Hub at Downtown East and I was shock to see a cup noddle for $3 and 4 hotdog for $3. All this food use to be $1-$2 just a few year ago.

Looking back, if inflaction is here to stay, property price only have one direction to go. Rental cannot be cheap if inflation is high, imagine renting a place for $1000 while a plate of Wonton Noddle is $3.50 in Hawker center.

Only risk will come when inflation cause recession if the spending power are over stretch.

I am still uncertain of the stock market, but property should remain a good bet.

Looks like the 2 casinos would be a good start to change our peoples mindsets about taking risk and getting gains.:nuts:. Hopefully by then ST index would go above 5000 points.

Aim at the stars, land on the moon.

- Leonard k.

arthur

April 30th, 2008, 03:34 AM

Year of uneven growth, price worries ahead

MAS says financial services, IT sector vulnerable but core activities insulated from US

By ANNA TEO

(SINGAPORE) Global headwinds have gathered speed in recent months, but domestic and regional support should prevent the Singapore economy from sliding into a sharp downturn in 2008, says the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

While it still expects Singapore's GDP growth to come in at around 4-6 per cent this year, 'barring a sharp downturn in the US economy', the central bank says the economic outlook in 2008 will vary significantly from industry to industry, with certain sectors more vulnerable to the US downturn.

And in the event of a protracted US recession, along with a widespread decline in global and regional economic activity, Singapore's growth will be more severely hit, as even the more resilient activities will not go unscathed, MAS warns in its latest Macroeconomic Review. In any case, even in the baseline scenario, Singapore's growth momentum is expected to ease from its double-digit sequential pace in Q1 over the next few quarters.

Advance estimates based only on January and February data have the Singapore economy growing almost 17 per cent in Q1 over the preceding Q4 2007. In year-on-year terms, the flash Q1 GDP growth was a robust 7.2 per cent.

The slowdown this year, after four years of above-7 per cent growth, will bring the economy closer to its potential output path, with the output gap narrowing markedly by 2009, MAS says. The economy has racked up a positive output gap, having expanded above its 4-6 per cent medium-term trend potential over the last four years.

MAS remains broadly optimistic about Singapore's growth outlook, as a good 30 per cent of the economy - core activities such as construction, marine transport and pharmaceuticals - are relatively insulated from the US.

Another big core of activities, accounting for some 37 per cent of GDP, enjoy strong domestic and regional support. But even these sectors - transport hub services, tourism-related activities, business services - would be affected if the US downturn deals Asia a tough hand.

But the most vulnerable to a US and global downturn are 'sentiment-sensitive' financial services such as the wealth advisory, equities, brokerage and treasury markets, as well as the IT-related cluster. They account for about one-third of the economy.

And while the growth outlook is a little murky, inflation remains the bigger concern, with further upside risks to global oil and food prices. MAS expects inflation in Singapore to stay high in 2008 'due to a confluence of external and domestic factors'.

Consumer price inflation could average above 6 per cent in the first half of 2008, and ease to about 4 per cent in the second half, partly as the GST hike effect wears off, it estimates.

'On a sequential basis, inflation should moderate over the rest of the year and come closer to its historical average rate of increase of 0.3 per cent,' it adds. MAS expects the 2008 inflation rate in the upper half of the 4.5-5.5 per cent forecast range, with underlying inflation - minus private accommodation and private road transport - coming in at 3.5-4.5 per cent.

The central bank also reiterates that its latest monetary policy decision to re-centre the policy band will help to ease inflation pressures and provide support to the economy as it slows to a more sustainable growth pace.

The half-yearly Macroeconomic Review also cites empirical evidence of first signs of a 'weak synchronicity' in economic activity between the US and Asia - as opposed to a full decoupling.

Latest trade data, it says, suggest there is some short-term substitution as regional exporters seek out opportunities in the growing China and Middle East markets to partially offset the drag in US demand.

One economist who was a little surprised by the MAS' latest assessments is HSBC Bank's Robert Prior-Wandesforde - he reckons the central bank is a bit hopeful about the inflation forecast for the year. He thought the 4.5-5.5 per cent inflation forecast range should have been revised up, and that the economy would quite easily hit the top end of the 4-6 per cent GDP growth forecast.

Source: Business Times

arthur

April 30th, 2008, 03:36 AM

Income, not interest, led to property boom

(SINGAPORE) The recent climb enjoyed by equity and property prices was driven more by strong economic growth than by low interest rates, according to a study by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

Empirical research by MAS shows that economic activity exerts a larger influence on asset prices in Singapore than borrowing costs.

'Asset price inflation reflects an underlying increase in income growth augmented in part by favourable sentiment towards domestic assets,' says the study, featured in the MAS macroeconomic review report released yesterday.

The MAS report also says: 'This linkage has been misunderstood by some analysts, who expressed concern that the increase in domestic liquidity, in and of itself, has fuelled the run-up in asset prices.'

Private housing prices increased by 31.2 per cent for 2007 as a whole, and some market analysts had felt that the central bank should raise interest rates to rein in property inflation.

This was because while overseas investors were driving property prices up, the inflow of foreign funds continued to add to domestic liquidity and kept borrowing costs low.

But as the MAS report mentions, 'the factors behind the increase in liquidity are much more complex in view of Singapore's monetary policy framework'.

Domestic interest rates have dropped since September last year as US interest rates fell and the Singapore dollar grew stronger.

The benchmark three- month domestic interbank rate fell by 144 basis points from August 2007 to 1.31 per cent at the end of March 2008.

As interbank rates fell, banks also started offering cheaper and more innovative mortgage packages.

Source: Business Times

stst

April 30th, 2008, 11:17 AM

DJ MARKET TALK:S'pore Housing Strength To Last Until 2010 -Lehman

0401 GMT [Dow Jones] Upcycle in Singapore's housing market likely to last until 2010, although sector currently taking a breather, says Lehman Brothers. Expects below-average public housing completion to create deficit of up to 4,300 homes by 2010, pushing homebuyers to private housing market. Says current low transaction volume for private homes has more to do with sentiment than fundamentals; "the concern of the market should be potential housing undersupply and not oversupply, in our view." Forecasts net supply of 11,000 private homes for 2009, 16,000 for 2010 vs yearly historical average of 7,000 since 1988; "even if we are to take into account a lower net migration rate this year as the economy slows, we think the overall housing supply is still likely to miss the population needs." Top stock picks include CityDev (C09.SG), Bukit Sembawang (B61.SG), CapitaLand (C31.SG), Keppel Land (K17.SG), SC Global (D2S.SG). Respective target prices at S$16.90, S$15.40, S$8.20, S$10.40, S$3.80. (FKH)

PreciseDrive

April 30th, 2008, 05:42 PM

Q1 GDP Growth Stronger Than Forecast
Glenn Somerville
Reuters
Washington, DC, US
Wednesday, 30 April 2008, 10.00am US EDT

A buildup in inventories kept the economy afloat in the first quarter despite the weakest consumer spending since 2001 and the biggest drop in home building in more than 26 years, a government report showed on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product or GDP expanded at a 0.6% annual rate in the first quarter, matching the fourth quarter's advance and handily topping a forecast for 0.2% growth in an advance poll of economists by Reuters.

Some economists said the report suggested the U.S. economy was on a bit firmer ground than had been thought, but others were still bracing for worse times ahead as businesses ratchet back production further to try to sell off inventories.

"We expect that the coming inventory correction will send growth into negative territory, save a truly heroic effort by the U.S. consumer to spend their way out of the current malaise with their $600 rebates," said Joseph Brusuelas, U.S. chief economist at IDEAglobal in New York.

Tax rebate checks that are part of a government economic stimulus program began to flow this week to upwards of 100 million Americans.

Government bond prices initially dipped on the stronger-than-expected growth figure but later recovered as investors focused on weakening consumer spending. Stocks opened higher.

Separately, ADP Employer Services said U.S. private-sector employers added 10,000 jobs in April, another surprise on the upside since forecasts had been for 60,000 jobs to be lost.

The reports were issued just before Fed policy-makers began a second day of deliberations that is expected to result in a decision to trim official interest rates another quarter percentage point to try to keep expansion going.

Analysts said they still expected a rate reduction.

"This is not going to disrupt things at the Fed today," said economist Pierre Ellis of Decision Economics in New York.

GDP is the broadest measure of total economic activity within U.S. borders and, despite a better-than-expected first-quarter performance, details of the report reflect widespread weakening that many analysts fear will lead to a recession.

The GDP figures are an initial measure of first-quarter performance and will be revised twice in coming months.

The Fed has cut its benchmark federal funds rate by 3 percentage points since mid-September to shore up the economy and calm unsettled financial markets. But many believe the Fed may send a signal at Wednesday's meeting that its rate-cutting campaign is at an end amid signs of persistent rises in food and energy prices.

Consumer spending that fuels two-thirds of economic activity through consumption of goods and services, grew at the weakest rate since the second quarter of 2001, when the economy was last in recession. It rose at a 1% rate after growing 2.3% in the fourth quarter.

The weakening in an already distressed housing sector was even more striking. Spending on residential construction plunged at a 26.7% rate - a ninth straight quarterly decline and the biggest for any three months since the end of 1981.

A buildup in business inventories, which bolsters growth in the period in which it occurs, helped the economy keep growing in the first quarter. Stocks of unsold goods rose at a $1.8-billion annual rate in the first quarter after shrinking at an $18.3-billion rate in the final quarter of last year.

There was a slight moderation in the rate of price rises. Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy items - a key gauge of core inflation that is favored by the Fed - rose at a 2.2% rate after increasing 2.5% in the fourth quarter.

A separate report suggested the weakening labor market was keeping labor costs under wraps. The Labor Department said U.S. employment costs grew at a 0.7% annual rate in the first quarter, marking a slight slowdown from the fourth quarter.

The deep housing slump and a related tightening in credit has put the U.S. economy on the ropes and data from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday suggested the housing market was far from recovery.

The MBA said its index of mortgage application activity dropped 11.1% last week to its lowest level since late December.

MacauVillager28

May 1st, 2008, 10:39 AM

OK, we've had a slew of good news recently...(and summarising a lot of above posts)

1. ^^ US still not in recession. Maybe just 1Q ? (which is technically not a recession). And US tax refunds just came out which should boost econ. Last year majority of economist thought US would just miss a recession - maybe right ?
2. SG jobs growth at record high at 64k in 1Q.
3. SG 1Q GDP VERY robust (creating 2) at 16.9% annualised in 1Q.
4. MAS conclusion that SG property rise linked to GDP (3). So if (3) good, positive for property.
5. Lehman predicts SG housing to maintain housing strenght to 2010
6. Stock markets recover 3.7% in April
7. Recent office block fetchs record hi at over $3k psf ... interesting to note tho.. luxury property is still more expensive at over $5k.. MIN is that foreigners/funds still VERY interested in SG and certain property sectors.
8. Interest rates still low AND falling
9. SGD still rising/seen rising
10. Mass private/Some luxury developments in past few weeks sold well with just a price cut of 3-5%

AND (i'll keep this list short at 10)
Bottom of market hit last month ? That was when a huge list appeared listing REASONS NOT TO BUY SG PROPERTY.
Good contrarian indicator :lol:

PreciseDrive

May 2nd, 2008, 03:59 AM

US stocks rally on stronger dollar, falling oil prices
Agence France-Presse
New York, New York, U.S.
Thursday, 1 May 2008, U.S. EDT

US stocks rallied sharply on Thursday amid a strengthening dollar, falling oil prices and as investors looked forward to an apparent pause in the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-cutting campaign.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up 189.87 points or 1.48% to close at 13,010.00.

It was the first time the blue-chip index ended a session above 13,000 since January 3.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rose 67.91 points or 2.81% to 2,480.71 and the broad-market Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index advanced a hefty 23.75 points or 1.71% to close at 1,409.34, above the 1,400-mark for the first time since January 14.

'May is off to a strong start,' Briefing.com analysts wrote in a note to clients.

Despite the Federal Reserve's quarter-point interest rate cut on Wednesday, taking its benchmark rate to 2.0%, the dollar gained ground against the euro, trading around US$1.54 (S$2.01) to a euro.

The stronger dollar in turn helped pressure oil prices, which fell to US$112 a barrel in New York, easing concerns about rising inflationary pressures.

The greenback also was lifted by the Fed's statement explaining the rate decision, which many analysts said signaled a halt in its rate cutting and prospects that the worst of a global credit crisis may be ending.

'The Fed's decision should bolster confidence that the worst of the credit crisis is finally passing, although it is still far from finished,' said Frederic Dickson, analyst at DA Davidson & Co.

Economic reports offered a mixed outlook on the economy's direction amid fears the economy is heading into recession, generally defined two consecutive quarters of contraction.

The Commerce Department on Wednesday reported the economy sputtered at a meager 0.6% pace in the first quarter, for the second quarter in a row.

Consumer spending in March rose much more sharply than expected, but most of the gain was due to higher prices, particularly for food and energy, the Commerce Department said.

Economists closely watch consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic growth, as a bellwether on GDP growth.

Among stocks in focus, ExxonMobil slid 3.62% to US$89.70 after reporting its first-quarter profit rose 17% from a year ago to US$10.89 billion, below Wall Street forecasts.

Home improvement retailer Home Depot, hit hard by the housing slump, jumped 3.72% to US$29.87 after it said it was scaling back its chain of stores in the United States.

Ford Motor shares gained 2.66% at 8.48 despite reporting a steep decline in US sales. Rival General Motors, which also saw sales slide, slipped 0.04 per cent to 23.19.

PreciseDrive

May 2nd, 2008, 04:11 AM

Bank of England says credit crunch concerns overstated
Agence France-Presse
London, U.K.
Thursday, 1 May 2008, EET

The Bank of England said on Thursday that British commercial banks had overestimated their exposure to the collapsed US sub-prime home loan sector and the subsequent global squeeze on credit.

The bank did not quantify the overestimation, which it said could be a factor in a loss of confidence that has afflicted certain financial institutions.

A large number of global banks have declared heavy losses from US mortgage-backed securities, which were effectively bets placed on high-risk American borrowers repaying their mortgages.

The credit crunch erupted last August, as many sub-prime US borrowers failed to keep up with their home loan repayments, forcing major commercial banks to tighten up their lending criteria.

"Estimates of the ultimate losses to the financial system and real economy implied by current market prices are a significant overestimate," the Bank of England (BoE) said in a half-yearly report on financial stability.

"Over-pessimism about these losses may itself be denting confidence and may be delaying the return of investor risk appetite and the recovery of asset prices."

Furthermore, the BoE said that commercial banks were becoming too cautious in their lending criteria.

"The pricing of risk in credit markets seems to have swung from being unsustainably low last summer to being temporarily too high relative to fundamentals," said John Gieve, BoE deputy governor for financial stability.

Last week, the central bank had unveiled a 100-billion-dollar plan to get banks lending again in the latest attempt to combat the global credit crunch.

Under the plan, the BoE will allow high street banks to swap British mortgage-backed securities for government bonds in a bid to boost their liquidity amid stubborn and widespread fears of sub-prime exposure.

"Rising US sub-prime defaults were the trigger for a broad-based repricing of risk and de-leveraging in credit markets," the BoE said in its report.

"An adjustment was needed after the credit boom and will inevitably have costs, but it is proving even more prolonged and difficult than anticipated.

"Prices in some credit markets are likely to overstate the losses that will ultimately be felt by the financial system and the economy as a whole, as they appear to include large discounts for illiquidity and uncertainty," said the British central bank.

With some assets undervalued, investment should soon flow back into the financial sector, helping companies' balance sheets, the BoE added.

However it noted that such improvements are likely to be only gradual as uncertainty persists.

"The disruption in markets reflects, in part, structural factors such as information and incentive problems, ... (and) while this adjustment takes place, risks to financial stability remain high," the BoE warned.

kopiluver

May 2nd, 2008, 04:37 AM

:lol:
stst, PreciseDrive & MV... I Like U(r news!)

Hayata1972 :wave:

PreciseDrive

May 2nd, 2008, 08:04 AM

Private banks roll out special units targeting mega-rich
Individuals with over US$30m in investible assets are moving more wealth to Singapore
Grace Ng
Finance Correspondent
The Straits Times
Friday, 2 May 2008

More private banks in Singapore are rolling out new special units to cater to Asia's super wealthy - a lucrative but largely under-served segment.

Banks observe that the region's mega-rich, who have well over US$30 million (S$41 million) in investible assets each, are moving more wealth to Singapore.

They do this to diversify their wealth beyond traditional ultra-high net worth banking hubs like Switzerland and Hong Kong.

The super wealthy grew in number to well over 17,500 in 2006 across the Asia-Pacific region, up 12% from the previous year, according to a Capgemini/Merrill Lynch report.

While there is no official data for the amount of assets ultra-rich clients booked in Singapore, one senior banker reckons growth rates may be anywhere from 10% to 25% for some banks last year.

Ultra-high net worth clients in Asia who book assets in Singapore are largely entrepreneurs from Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, China and India. Banks say this is a particularly lucrative segment as the clients require a wide range of services, from investment banking to asset management.

They also tap the banks' expertise in key areas such as setting up a family office, a private company that manages investments and trusts for a wealthy family, as well as in specialised lending, private equity and philanthropic advisory service, said Mr Rajesh Malkani, head of Standard Chartered Bank's (Stanchart's) private bank in South-east Asia.

Singapore trusts are becoming popular, with many ultra-high net worth clients using these for estate planning, he added.

One sign that Singapore is increasingly becoming popular as a booking centre for the super wealthy is that banks here are setting up dedicated units and teams to serve them.

New players, such as Australia-based Macquarie, which is purely focused on clients with at least US$30 million in investible assets, recently made Singapore its regional wealth management base.

Other niche players already in the country, such as Pictet & Cie, mostly serve clients with at least US$100 million already with the bank.

Just a few months ago, Stanchart, which set up its private banking headquarters in Singapore in July last year, saw the need to set up a 'specific ultra-high net worth proposition', said Mr Malkani.

He said the growth of this segment had 'exceeded expectations', as Stanchart's private bank was able to tap its large base of relationships with entrepreneurs who had been using its expertise and network in Asia, Africa and the Middle East for decades.

Major banks acknowledge that they have not focused enough resources on Asian clients in the past, so this segment is still under-served in Singapore.

Citi Private Bank relocated Mr Akbar Shah to Singapore less than a year ago to head its mega-wealth division in the Asia-Pacific, setting up a new team to serve clients with a net worth of more than US$250 million each.

The team had been operating in Hong Kong for many years, but Citi decided it was time to use Singapore as another base.

'Many of these clients are from Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries, but there are also several Middle Eastern and European investors who are more keen to explore business opportunities in Asia and are also looking to place part of their liquid assets here,' said Mr Shah.

Citi's rivals are matching its moves.

UBS has a dedicated 'competency centre' in Singapore to create services and products just for its ultra-rich clients.

Credit Suisse is on the lookout for senior bankers to help it 'sharpen its penetration for ultra-high net worth clients', said Dr Francois Monnet, the head of private banking for Southeast Asia and Australasia.

The margins earned from serving ultra-rich clients may be thinner than for those in the high net worth segment, say bankers.

The average size of each transaction or trade, however, is considerably larger, said Citi's Mr Shah. So banks stand to earn hefty revenues from just one transaction for an ultra-high net worth client.

Where The Wealthy Come From

'Many of these clients are from Indonesia and other South-east Asian countries, but there are also several Middle Eastern and European investors who are...looking to place part of their liquid assets here.'

http://www.ameinfo.com/images/news/9/18079-AkbarShah.jpg
Mr Akbar Shah
who was relocated to Singapore to head Citi's mega-wealth division in the Asia-Pacific

PreciseDrive

May 2nd, 2008, 08:34 AM

S&P affirms 'AAA' rating on Singapore with stable outlook
Reuters
Singapore
Friday, 2 May 2008, Singapore Time

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (S&P) said on Friday it affirmed its 'AAA/A-1+' sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Singapore. The outlook is stable.

The ratings reflect Singapore's enduring fiscal and external strengths and competitive economy, while taking into account the challenges it faces as a small and open economy.

Singapore's general government surplus is estimated at 8.8% of GDP in fiscal 2007 (ended March 31, 2008) and averaged 8.0% of GDP between 2003 and 2007.

'This level of surplus, one of the highest in the world, provides strong fiscal flexibility, which is needed for structural reforms, such as the ongoing efforts to diversify the economy to be less reliant on electronics exports and to enhance cost competitiveness,' said S&P's credit analyst YeeFarn Phua.

'The ratings on Singapore are also supported by its strong record of political stability and prudent macroeconomic management,' Mr Phua said.

'The government has consistently embraced a responsible, pragmatic, and forward-looking approach to policy making.'

Given its small and open economy, Singapore is more exposed to exogenous shocks than some of its peers, albeit its medium-term growth prospects remain favorable compared with other mature developed economies.

The sound and stable financial system, which has ample liquidity, good capitalisation levels, and effective regulation, helps mitigate the potential risks from exogenous shocks.

PreciseDrive

May 2nd, 2008, 04:33 PM

Employers cut fewer jobs in April, jobless rate falls to 5%
Jeannine Aversa
Economics Writer
Associated Press
Washington, D.C., U.S.
Friday, 2 May 2008, 9:57am U.S. EDT

Employers cut far fewer jobs in April than in recent months and the unemployment rate dropped to 5%, a better-than-expected showing that nonetheless still revealed strains in the nation's crucial labor market.

For the fourth month in a row, the economy lost jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday. But in April the losses totaled 20,000, an improvement from the 81,000 reductions in payrolls logged in March. Job losses for both February and March turned out to be a bit deeper than previously reported.

The latest snapshot of the nationwide employment conditions -- while clearly still weak -- was better than many economists were anticipating. They were bracing for job cuts of 75,000 and for the unemployment rate to climb to 5.2%.

The unemployment rate, derived from a different statistical survey than the payroll figures, fell to 5% from 5.1% in March. That survey showed more people finding employment than those who didn't.

Businesses are handing out pink slips as they cope with an economy that is teetering on the edge of a recession, or possibly in one already. A severe housing slump, harder-to-get credit and financial turmoil have forced people and businesses to be more cautious in their spending. And that has hurt the economy.

To help relieve credit problems, the Federal Reserve announced Friday that it would boost the availability of short-term loans to commercial banks to $150 billion in May from the $100 billion supplied in April. The goal is to supply a source of cash to squeezed banks so that they'll keep lending to customers.

The Fed took the action and several other moves to boost credit in coordination with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank.

On the jobs front, construction companies slashed 61,000 positions in April. Manufacturers cut 46,000 and retailers got rid of 27,000. Those losses were eclipsed by job gains in education and health care, professional and business services, the government and elsewhere.

The job losses came in areas hardest hit by the housing and credit debacles. The fact that fewer job cuts were ordered in April raised hopes that damages could be limited.

Voters are keenly worried about the country's economic problems and so are politicians -- in Congress, in the White House and on the campaign trail.

Workers with jobs saw scant wage gains.

Average hourly earnings for jobholders rose to $17.88 in April, a tiny 0.1% rise from the previous month. That was less than the 0.3% rise economists were forecasting. Over the last 12 months, wages have grown by 3.4%.

The weak labor market is making employers feel less generous with compensation.

Meanwhile, zooming energy and food prices are taking a bite out of paychecks. If the job market continues to falter, wage growth probably will slow, too, making people even less inclined to spend. That would spell further trouble for the economy.

The payrolls figure and the unemployment rate come from two different statistical surveys, which can provide -- as in Friday's case -- a somewhat conflicting picture of what is happening in the labor market.

The seasonally adjusted overall civilian unemployment rate -- 5% in April -- is based on a survey of 60,000 households. It showed that 362,000 people said they found employment last month, outpacing the number of people who couldn't find work.

Economists tend to put more stock, however, in the much broader business survey of 400,000 work sites that is used to calculate the payroll figures.

To limit the damage, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday, but signaled that its rate-cutting campaign could be drawing to a close.

Fed officials and the Bush administration are hoping that the Fed's aggressive rate cuts since September plus the government's $168 billion stimulus package -- including tax rebates that started hitting bank accounts this week -- will lift the country out of its slump in the second half of this year.

Even if that happens, economists predict the unemployment rate will climb higher, hitting 6% early next year.

Employers often are reluctant to beef up hiring until they feel certain that any such recovery has staying power.

Democrats in Congress insist more relief needs to be provided, including additional unemployment benefits to cushion the pain of joblessness. The administration has resisted, saying the rebates and other stimulative efforts should be sufficient once they fully kick in.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues acknowledged Wednesday the fragile state of the economy, saying hiring conditions "have softened further."

The economy advanced at a snail's pace of just 0.6% in the first three months of this year as people and businesses clamped down on their spending. It marked the second quarter in a row of such feeble growth.

A growing number of economists believe the economy is in a recession and is indeed contracting now.

Under one rough rule, if the economy contracts for six straight months it is considered to be in a recession. That didn't happen in the last recession -- in 2001-- though. A panel of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research that determines when U.S. recessions begin and end uses a broader definition, taking into account income, employment and other barometers. That finding is usually made well after the fact.

PreciseDrive

May 2nd, 2008, 04:35 PM

Stocks jump higher after better-than-expected payroll report, Fed works with Europe central banks to boost liquidity
Tim Paradis
Economics Writer
Associated Press
New York, New York, U.S.
Friday, 2 May 2008, 9:58am U.S. EDT

Wall Street extended its advance Friday after a government employment report showed the nation's employers cut far fewer jobs than expected last month, stirring optimism about the buoyancy of the economy.

The better-than-expected report comes days after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter point and signaled that it could stand pat at future meetings -- a move that could help shore up an anemic dollar and combat worrisome inflation.

The Labor Department's report that employers cut 20,000 jobs in April was a relief to Wall Street, which had been expecting payrolls to decrease by 70,000 jobs. This marked the fourth straight month of job losses, but the data signaled that perhaps the economy might be resisting falling into recession.

Meanwhile, the Fed said Friday it will work with European central banks to expand a series of efforts to deal with the global credit crisis. The central bank will boost the amount of emergency reserves it supplies to U.S. banks to $150 billion in May, up from the $100 billion it supplied in April.

In the first hour of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 85.90, or 0.66%, to 13,095.90.

Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 8.01, or 0.57%, to 1,417.35, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 4.95, or 0.20%, to 2,485.66.

Stocks surged Thursday as investors viewed the rising dollar and falling oil prices as promising signs for the economy. The Dow soared nearly 190 points to close above 13,000 for the first time since Jan. 3.

Bond prices fell Friday as investors moved into stocks from the safety of government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.84% from 3.77% late Thursday.

Oil prices moved higher after retreating Thursday on a strengthening dollar. Light, sweet crude rose $1.41 to $113.93 a barrel in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 148.8 million shares.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 2.05%. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.72%, Germany's DAX index added 1.67%, and France's CAC-40 rose 1.74%.

PreciseDrive

May 3rd, 2008, 10:12 AM

Jobs data lifts US blue chips
Jennifer Coogan
Reuters
New York, New York, US
Friday, 2 May 2008, 4:49 PM US EDT

Stocks made modest gains on Friday after jobs data that offered fresh evidence the economic slowdown is not as severe as feared, but technology shares faded on a surprise loss from Sun Microsystems Inc.

The government's stronger-than-expected April payrolls report helped oil stocks rebound sharply by easing fears about weaker US demand for energy. Adding to the energy rally were higher-than-expected profit from Marathon Oil Corp and Chevron Corp, the second-largest US oil company.

"People are willing to accept the fact that we may have a very slow, stagnant economy, but the prospect of a sharp downturn seems to be less and less likely, hence the sigh of relief," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Equity Markets in Jersey City, New Jersey.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 48.20 points, or 0.37%, at 13,058.20. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 4.56 points, or 0.32%, at 1,413.90. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 3.72 points, or 0.15%, at 2,476.99.

For the week, the Dow gained 1.3%, the S&P rose 1.2% and the Nasdaq advanced 2.2%.

Sun, one of the biggest makers of computers used by businesses, sank 22.6% to close at $12.64 after the company late on Thursday blamed the slowing economy for its dismal earnings forecast.

Yahoo Inc's shares helped stem the Nasdaq's losses. Shares of the Internet company rose nearly 7% to $28.67. The company has intensified talks with Microsoft Corp in a last-minute effort to reach a friendly agreement on Microsoft's buyout offer, now worth $42 billion, a source familiar with the matter said. Microsoft slipped 16 cents to $29.24.

The Labor Department said 20,000 jobs were shed last month, marking a fourth straight monthly decline, but the cuts were fewer than the 80,000 which economists surveyed by Reuters had anticipated. The unemployment rate fell to 5.0% from 5.1%.

Oil shares were higher after U.S. crude futures rose $3.80 to settle at $116.32 a barrel.

Marathon shares rose 6% to $50.80 and Chevron rose 38 cents to $95.32. A big gainer in the oil patch was offshore driller Transocean Inc, which rose 4.2% to $151.92.

PreciseDrive

May 3rd, 2008, 10:14 AM

With modest job losses, U.S. economy defies doomsayers
Rob Lever
Agence France-Presse
Washington, D.C., U.S.
Friday, 2 May 2008, 3:18 PM U.S. EDT

The US labor market held up better than expected in April, with 20,000 jobs cut in the month, according to data Friday that analysts said signaled a mild economic downturn but not a calamity.

The unemployment rate, based on a separate survey, rate fell a tenth of a percentage point to 5.0%, the Labor Department said.

The report was better than expected by private economists, who on average had forecast a loss of 75,000 jobs and a jobless rate of 5.2%.

"Job losses are way below the recession norm for this point of the business cycle, if this is recession," said Robert Brusca at FAO Economics. "Many things do not really add up for the recession forecasters."

The payrolls report, seen as one of the best indicators of economic momentum, comes amid fears that the world's largest economy may be headed for recession after being battered by a horrific decline in housing and a related credit squeeze. Yet the first-quarter report on US gross domestic product showed a small increase of 0.6%.

Avery Shenfeld at CIBC World Markets said the data still points to economic turmoil, with job declines in key areas such as manufacturing, construction and retailing.

"The report was milder than we thought but some of the details were not quite as encouraging," he said.

"If you isolate the cyclical industries, employment is dropping quite quickly. It's still not a sign the labor market is healthy."

The report showed the economy still hurting from the housing crisis. Construction shed 61,000 jobs and manufacturing lost 46,000.

That was offset in part by a gain of 37,000 in health care, and 27,000 in professional and technical services. The retail sector however lost 27,000 jobs.

Shenfeld said that the sector details show problems: "When you are trying to take the temperature of the economy and where it stands in the business cycle, you look at the cyclical industries like manufacturing, construction and retail."

President George W. Bush said the report was disappointing but expressed confidence in an economic recovery.

"That's not good enough for America. It's positive growth, but we can do better than that," he said of the report during a visit to St. Louis, Missouri.

Bush said the stimulus package anchored on tax rebates will help mitigate economic weakness.

"The good news is, is that we anticipated this. You know, last fall we started to get indications that the economy was going to, you know, slow down," he said.

Stephen Gallagher, economist at Societe Generale in New York, argued that the report suggests a decline for the overall economy but not a meltdown.

"Overall, the modest pullback supports a mild recession or downturn for the US economy," he said. "That is not good news, but the evidence lessens the fears of a deep or prolonged downturn."

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut its base lending rate by a quarter-point to 2.0% in a move seen as further insurance against a deep downturn after a series of aggressive rate cuts since September.

Many analysts say the Fed is likely to pause in its rate-cutting cycle to assess the impact of its earlier actions as well as the 168-billion-dollar economic stimulus package.

Peter Kretzmer, senior economist at Bank of America, said Friday's employment report "will encourage the Fed to pause in its rate cycle, allowing the aggressive easing to date to impact the economy."

Paul Ferley, economist at RBC Capital Markets, said the Fed is still cautious about a soft economy and tight credit conditions.

"Although today's report did not show as great a drop in employment as feared, it is still indicative of labor markets shedding workers during the first four months of the year," he said.

"To help sustain growth beyond this and through 2009, we are assuming that the Fed will lower Fed funds by a further 50 basis points, sending this rate to a near-term trough of 1.50% later this year."

PreciseDrive

May 3rd, 2008, 10:15 AM

US economy shows resilience; jobless rate falls as dollar rises
Economy shows unexpected bounce: Jobless rate declines, dollar shows a bit of muscle
Jeannine Aversa
Economics Writer
Associated Press
Washington, DC, US
Saturday, 3 May 2008, 2:30 am US EDT

The economy showed off unexpected signs of resilience Friday as job losses slowed, the dollar gained a bit of muscle for a change and there were even indications that food prices may be easing. The unemployment rate dipped, though that may not last.

The latest barometers flashed encouraging signs that the economic slowdown may not be as pronounced as some had feared. Still, there's much caution -- about housing, credit and other problems.

"Economic or financial conditions could take an unexpected stumble at any time," warned Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

Employers eliminated 20,000 jobs in April -- not nearly as many as the 81,000 in March, and the fewest monthly losses so far this year, the Labor Department reported. The unemployment rate dropped to 5%, from 5.1%.

Stresses were still evident. It was the fourth straight month that employers cut jobs -- bringing total losses to 260,000.

Many analysts were bracing for much more carnage. Yet, the new figures "can't be taken as a signal that the economy is out of the recession woods," said Nigel Gault, of Global Insight.

On Wall Street, investors initially responded enthusiastically to the employment news, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising more than 100 points, but the market gave back part of that gain and closed up 48.20 points. Investors were keeping their euphoria in check, especially since stocks had already shot nearly 190 points higher on Thursday.

Still, the tone in the market was clearly more upbeat. Thursday's advance came on a growing sense that the economy isn't as wounded from the credit crisis as many people have feared.

Investors were also reassured by the dollar's show of strength this week. The greenback's latest gains have come on expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady -- a trend that makes U.S. assets more attractive to overseas buyers. The U.S. currency rose this week to a five-week high against the euro.

In turn, the dollar's advance has had an impact in the commodities market. Food prices -- such as for wheat and soybeans -- eased. And while oil did rise Friday, that was because of supply concerns rather than moves in the dollar.

"Things are a little brighter," Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics, said of all the developments. "The economy is seen as doing a little bit better" and that's contributing to the stronger dollar and calmer food prices, he said.

Another report out Friday showed orders to U.S. factories rose a bigger-than-expected 1.4% in March after two straight months of declines. Higher prices, though, accounted for part of the gain.

Businesses are handing out pink slips as they cope with an economy that is teetering on the edge of a recession, or possibly in one already. A severe housing slump, harder-to-get credit and financial turmoil have forced people and businesses to be more cautious in their spending. And that has hurt the economy.

To help relieve credit problems, the Federal Reserve announced Friday it would boost the availability of short-term loans to commercial banks to $150 billion in May from the $100 billion supplied in April. The goal is to supply a source of cash to squeezed banks so that they'll keep lending.

On the employment front, construction companies, manufacturers, retailers, mortgage brokers and temporary help firms were among those shedding jobs in April. Those losses eclipsed gains elsewhere, including education, health, hotels and motels, bars and restaurants, and the government.

All told, there were 7.6 million people unemployed as of April, up from 6.8 million a year earlier.

Voters are keenly worried about the country's economic problems and so are politicians -- in Congress, in the White House and on the campaign trail.

President Bush expressed hope Friday that the economic-stimulus rebates beginning to reach taxpayers this week will help lift activity. "This economy is going to come on. I'm confident it will," Bush said.

Workers with jobs saw scant wage gains.

Average hourly earnings for jobholders rose to $17.88 in April, a tiny 0.1% rise from the previous month. Over the past 12 months, wages have grown by 3.4%. If the job market weakens in the months ahead, wage growth probably will slow, too, making people even less inclined to spend. That would spell further trouble for the economy.

The new jobs figures come from two different statistical surveys, which can provide -- as in Friday's case -- a somewhat conflicting picture.

The seasonally adjusted overall civilian unemployment rate -- 5% in April -- is based on a survey of 60,000 households. It showed that 362,000 people said they found employment last month, outpacing the number of new people who couldn't find work. Economists tend to put more stock, however, in the much broader business survey of 400,000 work sites that was used to calculate the job loss figure.

To help bolster the economy, the Fed lowered interest rates on Wednesday, but signaled that its rate-cutting campaign could be drawing to a close.

Fed officials and the Bush administration are hoping that the Fed's aggressive rate cuts since September plus the government's $168 billion stimulus package will lift the country out of its slump in the second half of the year.

Even if that happens, economists predict the unemployment rate will climb higher, hitting 6% early next year.

Employers often are reluctant to beef up hiring until they feel certain that a recovery has staying power.

The economy advanced at a snail's pace of just 0.6% in the first three months of this year as people and businesses clamped down on their spending. That marked the second quarter in a row of such feeble growth.

"I think we are in a recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. Even thought the employment news was "encouraging ... it is much too premature to signal that the economic coast is clear."

Baby

May 4th, 2008, 03:07 AM

From Asia Property May issue :

------------------

Singapore’s apartment rentals jump 33%

Singapore has now become the 5th most expensive place to rent in Asia, and 9th worldwide. This is according to a survey by HR solutions provider ECA International, which added that residential accommodation rental rates for a three-bedroom apartment have increased 33 percent from last year – the highest year to year percentage increases in Asia followed by Mumbai and Guangzhou.

“The demand for high-end accommodation has risen, driving up rental prices, which can be partly explained by companies expanding their operations in Singapore together with government initiatives to attract skilled workers from overseas,” Lee Quane, General Manager, ECA International Hong Kong, explains. “But at the same time, the supply of property available has been limited by a number of factors such as en bloc purchases by developers, which has exacerbated the situation.”

However, it is still less than half the rental cost of an equivalent property in Hong Kong, the survey’s most expensive location. In Tokyo, the 2nd most expensive Asian location, a three-bed apartment costs over 60 percent more to rent than in Singapore.

Six of the top 10 most expensive locations in the world are in Asia, with Mumbai (6th), Seoul (7th), Singapore (9th) and Ho Chi Minh City (10th) joining Hong Kong and Tokyo.

“On average, rental prices in Asia are approximately US$3,820; well above the global average of US$2,950. A robust economy and increased demand for high-end accommodation have been instrumental in driving rental prices up,” Quane adds.

-------------------

Market hints at recovery

There are signs that buyer sentiment in the property market may be improving. According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), the number of private homes sold in March leapt 80 per cent from February.

Developers were even more positive, having launched more than 600 units for sale in March – about 85 per cent more than the month before, and the highest in seven months. However, taken as a whole, the first quarter was the worst since 2003. A total of 301 residential units, excluding executive condominiums, were sold last month, according to data released yesterday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority. In February, 174 units were sold.

Most of the increase in sales came from the high-end market where sales skyrocketed 80 percent, compared to the 31 percent jump in suburban region sales. “Developers’ sentiments on the mass market far exceeds the buyers’ expectations, which is evident in the number of launches and also the recent strong biddings in the three Government Land Sales site at Simei, West Coast Crescent and Yishun. Contrary to developers’ optimism, buyers maintain a more cautious outlook of the market as the economy is expected to ease in the next few months, despite having a strong projection of GDP at 7.2 percent in Q1 08,” Dr Chua Yang Liang – local director and head of research, South East Asia, Jones Lang LaSalle noted.

Prices also rose from 170.8 points in Q4 2007 to 178 points in Q1 2008. This represents an increase of 4.2 percent, compared with the 6.8 percent increase in the previous quarter. Further, rrices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 4.4 percent in the Core Central Region, 3.9 percent in the Rest of Central Region and 4.8 percent in the Outside Central Region in the same quarter.

-----------------

Singapore’s March launches hit 7-month high

by Robert Carry.

The number of developments launched in Singapore during March 2008 was the highest in seven months, the city state’s Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has revealed.

Despite the fact that concerns about global real estate market slowdown have been circulating for some time, developers in Singapore have remained bullish amid continuing strong sales. According to a statement released today by the URA, “total island-wide new launches and take-up for non-landed properties in March rebounded from the February low, recording the highest level of new launches in seven months”.

A total of 632 units were launched in March, some 84.3 per cent higher than in February. Similarly, 293 units were sold in March a figure 79.8 per cent increase from February. According to the URA, the rise suggests “a potential strengthening of developers and buyers sentiments island-wide.”

shctaw

May 4th, 2008, 06:44 AM

MacauVillager28

May 4th, 2008, 09:33 AM

^^^^
I'm not sure if bulls are going to take over very soon, but agree that the worst may have been over a couple of weeks ago... (I mentioned on my list earlier, maybe bottom reached approx 1 month ago when we had list of reasons NOT to buy property..)

Also noted BT list of property deals (published last Tues ?) had lots of deals. Approx 3-4x more than earlier levels.... indicating buying interest. Not sure why so many but it was for a slightly longer period.
The list is for contract dates between April 7-19. However, not sure when these deals actually done/agreed upon ... Even for longer period, it is one of the longest list of contracts probably since boom market stopped...

Also of interest (not sure if anyone has facts on if acutal rather than delayed sales, but quite a few units of Sail listed... some highish, but some smaller ones at $1360psf, $1372psf.
If actual recent deals, are these the lowest since highs? Also indicates a 'clearout' of market, with some maybe forced to exit but importantly many buyers willing to come in to set bottom. If 2 deals are lowest, is this the 'bottom' price ???

DRSG

May 4th, 2008, 10:02 AM

Hope the ParcSeabreeze can turn the tide for sentiments here in the next couple of weeks.Annoucement of the 2008 MP would also be a big boost in the coming weeks.

BengBeng

May 4th, 2008, 12:35 PM

My own observation in my neighbourhood.

In Jalan Loyang Besar alone, I notice Aston Residence sold 19 out of 28 units of Bungalow in 2 weeks worth $2.65 million each.

Bluwater2 have a surge in number of visitors and there are 2 more projects rushing to launch in 2 weeks & 1 month time respectively.

More viewing on secondary properties in Jalan Loyang Besar with agents busy bringing potential buyers on road trip.

Sentiment is surely improving, I bet the recent correction in both property & stock market is over and the bull will take over the driver seat now.

Yeah, Aston Res balance..... 5 units remain. Good demand.
Understand Bluwater2 was launch last year.....still selling? Should have sold all by now! Maybe they increase the price.

Agreed, many happening over that place. Went to e-hub yesterday......really full house. Packed. Mind you, it was 2200hrs+.......night was young for those people. :banana::banana::banana:

PreciseDrive

May 5th, 2008, 05:29 AM

Worst Of Wall Street Crisis Is Over, Says Warren Buffett
Josh P. Hamilton and Betty Liu
Bloomberg
Omaha, Nebraska, U.S.
Saturday, 3 May 2008, 5.43pm U.S. CDT

http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/image/20080504/ST_IMAGES_BUFF.jpg
Warren Buffett, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., speaks to the media during the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, on May 3, 2008. Photo: Chris Machian, Bloomberg

Warren Buffett, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said the global credit crunch has eased for bankers, and the Federal Reserve probably averted more failures by helping to rescue Bear Stearns Cos.

"The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over," Buffett said today on Bloomberg Television. "In terms of people with individual mortgages, there's a lot of pain left to come." Buffett was interviewed before the Omaha, Nebraska-based company's annual meeting, attended by about 31,000 people.

Buffett, the world's richest man according to Forbes magazine, said the Fed acted properly when it arranged a $2.4 billion buyout in March of New York-based Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase & Co. The billionaire said he turned down the opportunity because he lacked enough capital and time to craft a solution. More failures and wider panic may have resulted if the regulators didn't halt the run on Bear Stearns, he said.

"The worry was that there would be contagion; it was a very real worry," Buffett said. "If Bear Stearns had gone, the next day, somebody else would have gone. It could've been a very, very, very chaotic situation."

Buffett, 77, said he was contacted in March before JPMorgan, the third-biggest U.S. bank by assets, agreed to buy Bear Stearns. The person calling him, whom he wouldn't identify, was "someone responsible" and wasn't from the Federal Reserve or the Treasury. The call lasted about half an hour, Buffett said.

Too Big for Buffett

"As I understand it, Bear Stearns had $65 billion due on Monday and I didn't have $65 billion," Buffett said. "I couldn't get my mind around that situation in the required time." New York-based JPMorgan was the right buyer for Bear Stearns, he added.

Berkshire had about $35 billion in cash as of March 31, according to a regulatory filing yesterday.

JPMorgan agreed in mid-March to acquire Bear Stearns, once the fifth-biggest U.S. securities firm, after customers grew concerned about the company's health and pulled out their money, leaving Bear Stearns short on cash. JPMorgan, which got financial support from the Federal Reserve, raised the purchase price a week later to $10 a share from $2 to mollify Bear Stearns shareholders who said they weren't getting enough.

The 24-company KBW Bank Index has advanced 14% since the Bear Stearns bailout was announced in March, and the 11- company Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index has climbed 30%.

Credit Losses

In a question-and-answer session at the shareholder meeting, Buffett said that from a risk perspective, some banks got "too big to manage."

The world's largest banks and investment firms have recorded more than $300 billion of losses and writedowns tied to mortgages, bonds and loans.

Berkshire's own investment in derivative contracts recovered $500 million to $600 million of lost value since the end of March, Buffett said. The company will make "significant money" on the derivatives over the long term, he said at the meeting. Berkshire said yesterday the value of the investments had declined by $1.7 billion in the first quarter. The entire company's quarterly profit plunged 64% to $940 million.

Buffett is scheduled to embark on a 4-city European trip this month to scout potential acquisitions, including family-owned companies. He has been investing in China, Israel and the U.K. to spur profit growth after saying that U.S. investments meeting his criteria have become scarce.

International Earnings

"Over time we'd like to develop more international earnings," Buffett said. "If it's a $2 billion deal, fine; if it's a $20 billion dollar deal, fine."

Buffett, who made his first non-U.S. acquisition in 2006, paying $4 billion for 80% of Israel-based Iscar Metalworking Cos., said he can't predict the location of the next company Berkshire will acquire.

"They can come from Europe, they can come from the United States, you just never know," he said. "Somebody, someplace is going to have a situation where we fit. They're going to call me; I want to make sure I'm on their radar screen."

Buffett said during the meeting he'd like to buy businesses in India and China, and that he wanted to acquire one or two non-U.S. companies in the next three years. He is looking as competition forces down insurance rates in the U.S. for Berkshire, which typically gets about half its profit from insurance units including National Indemnity, General Re Corp. and Geico Corp.

The U.S. dollar will keep weakening and Buffett feels "no need to hedge" against currency risk when buying large companies outside the U.S., he said.

Landing From Mars

"If I landed from Mars today with a billion of Mars dollars, or whatever they call them on Mars, and I was thinking about where to put my money," he said. "I don't think I'd put the entire billion in U.S. dollars."

Berkshire Hathaway has spent $4 billion investing in the municipal auction-rate bond market, taking advantage of payouts that topped 10% after regular bidders fled the market. Markets were so disrupted, Buffett said, that bonds from the same issue were selling simultaneously from the same broker with yields of 6% and 11%.

Berkshire has risen about 22% in New York Stock Exchange composite trading during the past 12 months and gained about 4,700 percent in 20 years through Dec. 31, about six times more than the Standard & Poor's 500 Index including dividends.

hayata1972

May 5th, 2008, 05:38 AM

arthur

May 5th, 2008, 06:33 AM

Baby

May 5th, 2008, 05:31 PM

Straits Times also published this article. No wonder showflat so active now.

I believe most were just spending their long weekend window viewing, see see look look........ & those launches were small developments at suburb....small developers trying to clear stock quick ?

Will have to see the bigger developments launches and their actual take up rate to decide if sentiment has turned better.

arthur

May 5th, 2008, 06:54 PM

I believe most were just spending their long weekend window viewing, see see look look........ & those launches were small developments at suburb....small developers trying to clear stock quick ?

Will have to see the bigger developments launches and their actual take up rate to decide if sentiment has turned better.
heard that a mid-range project, 8 Rodyk, has sold 20 units out of 50 units available.

LittlePig

May 6th, 2008, 01:25 AM

heard that a mid-range project, 8 Rodyk, has sold 20 units out of 50 units available.

been there... 8 Rodyk uses some good quality appliances like Gaggenau and finishings like over 3m ceiling height and floor to ceiling doors, etc...

shctaw

May 6th, 2008, 02:45 AM

been there... 8 Rodyk uses some good quality appliances like Gaggenau and finishings like over 3m ceiling height and floor to ceiling doors, etc...

A super ULU location project Aston Residences sold 23 bungalow and only 5 left.

Very fast as the price tag is a hafty $2.5 million. I think the C C Lok Lok also came with some buying.

A lot of buyers now sideline still wondering is it a right time to enter..... By the time they figure out, the market already up 10-20%.:lol:

After all this years, I have learn my lesson.

Veru

May 6th, 2008, 03:07 AM

Bro shctaw -- please dont be so harsh with yourself ---> we all are doing ok (financially) lah ! It is not physically possible to take advantage of EVERY good deal so just chill my friend & be content with your many fab assets !

kopiluver

May 6th, 2008, 04:32 AM

Finally! I was waiting for this old man to speak! When he says it is over, it is truely over. Now he will want to push up his share aquisitions. All the other funds and big players will also start to follow suit.

Property market will start to bull run very very soon. Belt up cause its gonna be a bumpy ride.

No bumpy rides la! But still need seat belts tho cos G-force will be mighty great! :banana:

arthur

May 6th, 2008, 06:28 AM

been there... 8 Rodyk uses some good quality appliances like Gaggenau and finishings like over 3m ceiling height and floor to ceiling doors, etc...

very good finishing. i was very impressed with i was there yesterday. the pricing is good too. the only drawback, small room size.....

hayata1972

May 6th, 2008, 04:01 PM

No bumpy rides la! But still need seat belts tho cos G-force will be mighty great! :banana:

Recently there really are still many foreigners coming in. All you guys take it from me, rental yield is still good. Just need patience i realised.

PreciseDrive

May 7th, 2008, 06:35 AM

Singapore Ousting Hong Kong As Top Millionaire Hub
China seen to be 3rd richest country by 2017: study
Nisha Ramchandani
The Business Times
Wednesday, 7 May 2008

Singapore is expected to pull ahead of Hong Kong as home to the highest concentration of millionaires over the next decade, sealing its reputation as a wealth centre not just in Asia but worldwide.

And while the US and Japan should remain the top two largest global economies, emerging markets such as China, India, Russia and Brazil will make their presence felt more strongly.

Now ranked 7th in terms of total net worth, China will grab 3rd place by 2017, bypassing several G7 countries to become the 3rd-richest country, while India is expected to make its debut in the top 10 list at No 8. Russia and Brazil will also display significant growth, moving up from 19th to 11th place and 15th to 12th place respectively.

With the Economist Intelligence Unit, Barclays Wealth released a report yesterday that forecasts the evolution of the level and distribution of household wealth in 50 countries between 2007 and 2017. Household wealth was measured using three components - financial holdings such as cash and other liquid assets, non-financial holdings such as property, and an aggregate measure that combined the two.

Last year, Singapore trailed Hong Kong in highest wealth density, with 23.3% of residents having wealth of more than US$1 million. But by 2017, Singapore is expected to see this figure grow to 40.7% - some 436,000 households - in comparison to Hong Kong's predicted 39.4%.

According to the report, countries with the highest percentage of dollar millionaires tend to be small, densely populated financial centres such as Singapore and Switzerland.

In addition, the study revealed that the disproportionate distribution of wealth is expected to narrow as the concentration of wealthy households in Singapore, with US$3 million and US$5 million, is on an upward trend. Households with wealth of US$3 million will more than double from the current 5.1% to 12.5%, while those with US$5 million will almost triple from 2.1% to 6%.

Barclays Wealth chief executive for Asia-Pacific, Didier von Daeniken, pointed to Singapore's recent efforts to shift its focus from manufacturing towards technology and financial services. In addition, the opening up of previously protected sectors, like financial services, and bilateral trade agreements serve as an impetus to garner foreign direct investment.

For China, wealth creation has stemmed largely from the stock market and real estate. Citing figures from Ernst & Young, the report said 464 IPOs were launched in China over the past three years, raising US$134 billion. As the country's economy continues to expand, the average net worth per household is expected to quadruple, from US$18,000 in 2007 to US$74,000 10 years later.

'Asia now represents 25% of HNWI individual wealth globally but only about 10% of the income of the major private banks,' said Mr Daeniken. 'Growth for private banks can come from two areas - more penetration of existing wealth and more wealth being created.'

In Asia, Barclays clients are typically entrepreneurs, a trend that is expected to remain in the future.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2008-05-07/BT_IMAGES_RICH7.jpg▒▒▒▒ http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2008-05-07/BT_IMAGES_RICH7A.jpg

PreciseDrive

May 7th, 2008, 06:39 AM

40% of Singapore Households will be Millionaires by 2017, forecasts Wealth Manager
Jinny Koh
Today
Wednesday, 7 May 2008

Back when Mr Chia Chor Yam was living in a five-room HDB flat 9 years ago, little did he expect that he would have a combined household income and assets worth more than $1 million today.

Mr Chia, 55, who is currently living in a 3-room condominium with his wife and three sons, said that taking into account the inflation rate back then, his combined household income and assets were about $400,000 nine years ago.

Like Mr Chia, many other individuals here may well see their own million-dollar dream come true nine years from now if projections made by a Barclays Wealth report prove to be accurate.

The report — done in cooperation with the Economist Intelligence Unit — projects that come 2017, two in every five households in Singapore or 40% will be millionaires — almost double the current number.

The report, which includes financial and non-financial wealth minus liabilities, noted that last year, there were 245,000 high net worth households in Singapore with overall wealth in excess of US$1 million ($1.3 million). It projected that the figure would rise to 463,000 resident and foreign households by 2017.

The report based its projection on several factors, such as the changing nature of the world's economies. In Singapore's case, for example, previously protected sectors, such as financial services, had been liberalised, while various bilateral free-trade agreements (FTA) had been concluded to promote foreign direct investment. All these will help more individuals to accumulate wealth.

"FTA is one of the measures of the openness of the economy," explained Mr Didier von Daeniken, chief executive for Barclays Wealth Asia Pacific.

"Customer profiles are also changing — such as seeing more entrepreneurs — and I think this trend will continue for the next 10 years," Mr von Daeniken said.

Associate Professor for Sociology from the National University of Singapore Tan Ern Ser said that the projection in the growth of millionaires here is possible with the passing of the older generations with low education.

"We are likely to have a high proportion of Singaporeans with higher skills and qualifications and hailing from dual-income households. So these people are presumably able to survive very well and thrive in the global competition," he said.

And if this projection is accurate, would Singapore, as a whole, benefit from having many more millionaires in its midst?

Assoc Prof Tan believes this would be so since Singapore will have a larger tax base and the government will be able to accumulate more surpluses to help the poorer segments of society.

"However, if a person owns a property worth a million bucks but is cash-poor, we would still be having lots of people not being able to live like millionaires, which is not helpful to the retail market," he added.

DRSG

May 7th, 2008, 06:50 AM

arthur

May 7th, 2008, 07:30 AM

Merrill CEO is ‘bullish on the world’

JOHN Thain, the chief executive officer of brokerage and investment banking giant Merrill Lynch, talks to BT’s associate editor Vikram Khanna about the crisis on Wall Street, the changes at Merrill and its prospects looking forward.

Q: Warren Buffett says the worst of the crisis on Wall Street is over. Do you agree?

A: First, let me say I wouldn’t disagree with Warren on anything!

We’re through with the sub-prime-related credit problems for the most part. But I still believe the US economy is going to go through a difficult period as a combination of falling home prices, rising food prices, rising energy prices and rising unemployment impacts the consumer and that will impact the real economy. So I still believe we’re going to go through at least a couple of difficult quarters, more related to a slowdown driven by the consumer rather than the sub-prime related problems.

Q: How will this slowdown impact financial institutions, particularly Merrill?

A: It won’t impact Merrill so much. The next problem area will be those financial institutions which have large exposures to consumer-related debt - home equity loans, auto-loan receivables, credit-card receivables. And those would be primarily the regional banks.

Q: Looking ahead, do you foresee further restructuring of US financial institutions?

A: We’ve been seeing that. Huge amounts of capital have been raised, and particularly, in the case of investment banks, leverage has been reduced. I think both of those are likely to continue.

Q: Do you foresee Merrill having to raise still more capital?

A: No, I don’t. We’ve raised US$12.8 billion of common and mandatory convertible at the beginning of the year. That was about US$4 billion more than we lost in 2007. And we raised another US$2.7 billion of perpetual preferred. So, right now, our equity capital is US$44 billion, which is just a little under its record high.

Q: You are the first CEO of Merrill who has not been from within Merrill. What are the advantages and disadvantages of being an outsider?

A: I think you have to look at why I decided to come to Merrill and why they offered me the job. It’s first the business mix, the strategy of Merrill. It has an excellent strategy - a combination of the world’s best wealth management business and a world class investment bank and sales and trading organisation. That strategy is very powerful and makes a lot of sense.

There are great synergies between the wealth management business and the investment banking business. You take a company public, you sell it, the wealth management side can manage the wealth, the wealth management side also has great contacts who can provide new IPO opportunities, new M&A opportunities.

Merrill also has a very strong brand and a very strong culture. And it’s a global business; we have a global footprint. The investment banking, sales and trading parts of the business are 60 per cent outside the United States.

So the combination of a very good set of businesses, a global footprint, a very strong brand and a very strong culture was what was attractive to me.

Q: How do you plan to change the corporate culture at Merrill in any way, if at all?

A: The culture is strong and it’s a very good culture. The one place where we want to change that is inside some of the sales and trading businesses. There were too many silos where each of the trading desks were focused only on their own P&L and in many cases, were paid only on the basis of their own P&L. We’re going to move towards a more company-wide focus. And so, compensation will be based on how well the company does as a whole does. We will also change the risk management culture. I brought in a new person, Noel Donahue, to co-head risk, and risk now reports directly to me. And so, the risk management functions and the focus on risk controls is also a change.

Q: You’ve worked at Goldman Sachs, where risk management was part of your job as CFO. Goldman has emerged from the credit crisis relatively unscathed. What did it do right that some other investment banks did not do?

A: One of the things Goldman did right was that it made risk management a very senior-level focus. The risk management functions were just as important as the trading functions. So there was a good balance between the two.

Second, the senior management, right up to the CEO, were very hands-on in understanding the business and understanding the risks of the business.

Third, Goldman’s compensation philosophy has always been oriented towards the firm as a whole. Those three things enabled them to weather this difficult environment.

Q: How do you respond to the public outcry against the compensation policies of financial institutions, which many people say reward excessive risk taking on the upside, without imposing commensurate penalties on the downside.?

A: You have to look at how compensation is done and what form it takes. I believe in employees getting a significant part of compensation in the form of equity. Actually, that’s one of the other things we’ve changed at Merrill; we’ve increased the proportion of equity in people’s compensation. When you give them stock, they participate on both the upside and the downside. And I think that’s a very important element in aligning the interests of management with that of shareholders.

Q: Merrill has significant operations across several Asian countries. How do you see the prospects for your Asian operations?

A: The Asian part of our business is the fastest growing and has some of the best opportunities in the world. The wealth that’s being created in Asia and the growth in Asian economies fits our business mix perfectly. As new wealth is being created, we want to expand our wealth management business. As economies grow, companies need access to capital, countries have infrastructure needs which need to be addressed, and that creates a lot of investment banking opportunities and sales and trading opportunities. So I am very optimistic about the growth prospects in Asia and in particular, here in Singapore.

Q: Which Asian countries are you especially focusing on at this time?

A: Certainly, Singapore is one. India is second and China is third. Singapore is one of our major hubs in the region. We also have a very strong presence in India. And China is a big focus because of its growth. We have strong presence there in terms of bringing Chinese companies to the international markets. But we don’t have the licences we need to operate in the domestic market in China, so that’s an important focus - that we get those licences.

Q: Merrill’s advertising slogan is ‘Bullish on America’. Are you bullish on America?

A: We’re bullish on the world, and on the opportunities for both our wealth management business and our investment banking business. We are a global company, not just a US company, and I think there are great opportunities around the world.

Source: Business Times

kopiluver

May 7th, 2008, 08:16 AM

What's the official figure?

2006 = 56000 new PRs according to:

http://siewkumhong.blogspot.com/2007/08/wpqs-16-july-2007-permanent-residency.html

2007 = 63,000 new PRs... according to:

http://singaporepropertyfrontiers.com/2008/02/27/dpm-wong-kan-seng-says-singapore-attracting-more-new-prs-citizens/

Or could it be 700,000 (estimate) according to this:

http://www.littlespeck.com/content/people/CTrendsPeople-071006.htm

I saw a week ago either on mha.gov.sg or mha.gov.sg that 2007 figure was 270,000... but cant seem to find that link now... any one seen that?? Is this the article: http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/popn/respop.pdf (I cant seem to open)

Or do we believe this figure as reported??? This is wat I mean by needing more accurate factual figures!!

Disclose More Info on Foreign Labour
- The Business Times, 9 February 2006
I refer to the article 'Employment hits all-time high of 2.3 million' by Anna Teo (BT, Feb 2).

It has often been asked whether the inflow of cheap, low-skilled foreign workers into Singapore over the years has depressed wages at the bottom end.

This may have been a contributing factor, according to National University of Singapore economist Basant Kapur, who said greater clarity will only be possible if the government releases more data on the size and skills make-up of the foreign-worker workforce in individual industries.

The government has maintained that this is sensitive data kept secret for reasons of national interest. It does not want to expose Singapore's vulnerability in terms of its dependence on foreign labour.

Keeping data secret may be disadvantageous to Singapore, as we may in a sense be letting others draw the conclusion that we are so dependent on foreign labour that we are afraid to reveal it.

I support the workfare proposals as they encourage self-reliance by working, and would like to suggest that we explore more measures to help Singaporeans to get jobs vis-a-vis foreigners who may be competing for the same jobs.

According to the Department of Statistics' latest data, the total population grew from 4,240,300 in 2004 to 4,351,400 in 2005 - an increase of 111,100.

Singapore residents, comprising citizens and permanent residents, increased by 66,600, from 3,486,900 to 3,553,500. This means that the increase in the population due to foreigners was 44,500.

As total live-births were 37,174 and total deaths were 15,860, the net increase in the resident population was 21,314.

Does this mean that the increase due to new permanent residents was 44,686 (66,600 minus 21,314)?

If this is the case, then the increase due to foreigners and permanent residents was 89,186 (44,500 foreigners plus 44,686 new permanent residents).

This is 80 per cent of the 111,100 increase in the total population.

If Singaporeans accounted for only 20 per cent of the population increase, in order to get a more detailed picture of the unemployment situation, it's necessary to know the proportion of the 110,000 new jobs created in 2005 that went to Singaporeans vis-a-vis non-citizens.

Which is the bigger problem? Not letting others know how dependent we are on foreign labour, or helping the 64,000 unemployed?

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Singaporeans and permanent residents was 3.3 per cent last December, down from 4.4 per cent in September and 4 per cent in December 2004. The question that may be on the minds of some Singaporeans is: what is the unemployment rate for Singaporeans?

I think we need to balance the need for foreign labour data secrecy with more transparency to enable all stakeholders to work together to help the 300,000 people who earn less than $1,200 a month.

shctaw

May 7th, 2008, 09:41 AM

If 40% of Singaporean are millionaires in 2017, properties prices will sky rocket.

By then, $1 million may only buy you a Executive HDB unit.

Roti Plata with egg will cost $3 each by then.

bigbird72

May 7th, 2008, 09:43 AM

All bull reports the last few days.Where are the bears?Bigbird where are you.
I feel bullish .:cheers:Waiting for official Parc Seabreeze and Silversea launch.Then MP 2008.Waiting for MBT to say something.

i am in pasadena, california now. attending wesco agm tomorrow.

wont be back in SG until June.

Baby

May 7th, 2008, 10:31 AM

All bull reports the last few days.Where are the bears?Bigbird where are you.
I feel bullish .:cheers:Waiting for official Parc Seabreeze and Silversea launch.Then MP 2008.Waiting for MBT to say something.

Bigbird has been too busy with his shopping and buying spree .... ;)

Baby

May 7th, 2008, 10:38 AM

Population hiked a lot over last 2 years, and definitely still increasing......I can feel the crowd growing every day when I take the MRT morning and evening..., and more cars when I drive even over the weekend.

Baby

May 7th, 2008, 10:42 AM

I find it weird on the 23.3% and 40% millionaire figures using "household" and "home asset" to measure....:nuts:

BengBeng

May 7th, 2008, 01:50 PM

If 40% of Singaporean are millionaires in 2017, properties prices will sky rocket.

By then, $1 million may only buy you a Executive HDB unit.

Roti Plata with egg will cost $3 each by then.

Again, how many % are Sporean and how many % are New Sporean. Got the feeling high % are coming from the New Sporean who are rich already in the first place.

Joe77

May 7th, 2008, 03:35 PM

I find it weird too.. don't quite understand what it means by "combined household income and assets". Why must use combined household income? Simply use net assets will do.. it also din't say if primary residential is included or excluded.

I find it weird on the 23.3% and 40% millionaire figures using "household" and "home asset" to measure....:nuts:

Baby

May 7th, 2008, 03:40 PM

I find it weird too.. don't quite understand what it means by "combined household income and assets". Why must use combined household income? Simply use net assets will do.. it also din't say if primary residential is included or excluded.

In this case the primary (home) residential has been included.

PreciseDrive

May 7th, 2008, 04:57 PM

In this case the primary (home) residential has been included.
Primary residence property is not included as per 2006 and 2007 reports.

Liabilities have to be deducted too.

Baby

May 7th, 2008, 05:03 PM

Primary residence property is not included as per 2006 and 2007 reports.

Liabilities have to be deducted too.

With 80% of household staying in HDB, I don't believe without primary residence property included, how could there be 23.3% household as millionaire in Singapore today ?

In the story about Mr Chia with > $1m today, if I read it correctly, it takes his combined household income and his current self stay condo as asset. His combined household income and 5 room HDB flats 9 years ago was $400k.

PreciseDrive

May 7th, 2008, 06:00 PM

With 80% of household staying in HDB, I don't believe without primary residence property included, how could there be 23.3% household as millionaire in Singapore today ?

In the story about Mr Chia with > $1m today, if I read it correctly, it takes his combined household income and his current self stay condo as asset. His combined household income and 5 room HDB flats 9 years ago was $400k.
I couldn't find the past reports on the household millionaires. Let me go find it.

Singapore: Who wants to be a millionaire?
Thursday, 28 June 2007
The Straits Times

Singapore's population of US dollar millionaires surged by a staggering 21.2% last year to 66,660 - the fastest growth rate of any nation in the world. The dramatic boost in the membership of this once highly exclusive club came amid a booming stock market, strong economy and the start of the property rebound last year.

This is the second time in three years that the Republic has posted the highest growth globally in the annual World Wealth Report, compiled by Merrill Lynch and research firm Capgemini.

About 11,660 newly minted millionaires joined the ranks here last year, the survey of the well-to-do in 71 countries has found.

A million greenbacks currently converts to about S$1.54 million. The 66,660 millionaires account for about 1.5% of the population and that means three out of every 200 people here are millionaires.

The number of millionaires in the world increased by 8.3% in 2006, with about 9.5 million individuals now estimated to have more than a million dollars in financial assets.

The financial assets owned by the group totalled US$37.2 trillion (S$57.3 trillion), an increase of 11.4% from 2005.

Singapore, India, Indonesia and Russia produced the greatest number of new millionaires.

The survey said strong global economic growth and gains on the stock market explained the expansion of the exclusive club of 'High Net Worth Individuals' (HNWIs).

'Real GDP and market capitalisation growth rates, two primary drivers of wealth generation, accelerated throughout 2006, which helped to increase the total number of HNWIs around the world as well as the amount of wealth they control,' the report said.

The number of Ultra-HNWIs - individuals with financial assets exceeding US$30 million - increased by 11.3% in 2006.

The global population of this extremely affluent group is now estimated at 94,970 people.

The financial assets of Ultra-HNWIs increased by 16.8% compared with 2005, illustrating a trend whereby wealth is increasingly concentrated in the hands of the already wealthy, the report said.

'Global wealth continued to consolidate in 2006, a trend we have reported for the past 11 years,' the report said.

Capgemini and Merrill Lynch define a millionaire as someone with more than US$1 million in financial assets such as cash, equities, bonds or funds.

They do not include the value of an individual's primary residence or private collections of objects such as art, antiques or coins.

Investments of passion

This year's report included a section looking at the money spent by millionaires on so-called 'investments of passion,' meaning investments in luxury goods.

More than a quarter of such investments were in private jets, sports teams, yachts or race horses, with the remainder in art, fine wine and jewelry.

'On average, art investments comprised 20% of HNWIs' investments of passion - outlays that were dwarfed by the huge prices paid for private aircraft and yachts,' the report said.

The survey also highlighted a trend among millionaire investors to put money into the real estate market in 2006, particularly commercial real estate, to take advantage of surging rental and property prices.

The collective fortune of the HNWI population is forecast to hit US$51.6 trillion in 2011, compared with US$37.2 trillion last year.

hayata1972

May 7th, 2008, 06:18 PM

PreciseDrive

May 7th, 2008, 06:23 PM

'The Worst Is Behind Us': Hank Paulson Joins Street Luminaries, Declares Victory
Aaron Task
Tech Ticker
U.S.
Wednesday, 7 May 2008, 11:28am U.S. EDT

With Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Merrill's John Thain chiming in, there's now near unanimity of opinion on Wall Street: The worst of the credit crisis is over.

Such comments seem outrageous given the latest batch of scary headlines from UBS, Fannie Mae, Legg Mason, Lazard, et al. But hope springs eternal on Wall Street, and the reality is the crisis in the debt markets has eased since JPMorgan's Fed-engineered purchase of Bear Stearns, which Paulson called "an inflection point."

Meanwhile, even Henry "Mr. Sunshine" Blodget is starting to come around to the idea that the housing market may be hitting bottom, thanks to an op-ed by Cyril Moulle-Berteaux, managing partner of Traxis Partners, in The Wall Street Journal.

In making the case for a housing-market bottom, Moulle-Berteaux notes house price affordability has improved dramatically and the inventory of new homes is falling.

The fund manager makes a compelling case, but omits the key element of financing. While demand for housing remains fairly stable and mortgage rates are still historically low, even buyers with high credit scores and large down payments are reportedly struggling to secure as lenders like Countrywide and WaMu grapple with the bubble's aftermath.

bigbird72

May 7th, 2008, 08:30 PM

Bigbird has been too busy with his shopping and buying spree .... ;)

not for properties.

but things are cheaper here in US. esp branded stuff. not just those premium outlets. stores prices are still 30-50% lower than in SG. maybe rent and costs are cheaper here.

shctaw

May 8th, 2008, 01:52 AM

not for properties.

but things are cheaper here in US. esp branded stuff. not just those premium outlets. stores prices are still 30-50% lower than in SG. maybe rent and costs are cheaper here.

Singapore is more expensive in USD term. Our safety environment have put a premium in everything that we can put a price tag on.

The 30% cheaper is equal to 25% appreciation of SGD from 1.8000 to 1.3500.

Veru

May 8th, 2008, 02:24 AM

not for properties.

but things are cheaper here in US. esp branded stuff. not just those premium outlets. stores prices are still 30-50% lower than in SG. maybe rent and costs are cheaper here.

Hey there Buddy BigBird72 in Pasadena :) I am in Sydney now, then Auckland & then Pasadena next week -- boy with the USD becoming "toilet paper" the rest of the world is surely "overpriced" in USD terms :lol: Always shop in the USA buddy -- try the premium outlets (Hugo Boss/ Dolce & Gabbana for example at 1/3 to 1/2 Sg prices) at Cabazon-->Desert Hills Premium Outlets (next to Palm Springs --great resort) about 2 hours east max from Pasadena

LittlePig

May 8th, 2008, 02:57 AM

I used to think Singapore is expensive... and then I went to London & Paris... a simple lunch for 2 in London can cost more than 30 pounds... Paris was slightly cheaper but was almost mugged by 2 black teenagers in Paris' Metro... so I realised how fortunate I am to be living in Singapore...

Veru

May 8th, 2008, 03:01 AM

Hello my porcine buddy -- whoa there now -- I got mugged in Sg about 20 years ago & had my pasport stolen ! With the IR (& population explosion) crime WILL rise --prostitution, pickpockets, drugs -- the works........

LittlePig

May 8th, 2008, 03:21 AM

Veru

May 8th, 2008, 03:42 AM

Sorry to hear that Lord Veru... don't know why, but I feel safer in Singapore... maybe its the familiarity of my birthplace... and I'm not trying to talk down the other places... love London and Paris despite the little incident, those places are so alive and vibrant and full of history & culture!

My dear friend, we all feel safer in familiar & "known" environments :) But our parents will always remind us of the "good old safe days " -- memory is selective as well -- we tend to remember the good things (low prices for example) in the distant past as well as the very bad (muggings) BUT forget the somewhat bad (no aircon & too many mosquitoes) :lol:

Regarding "culture" --the Europeans love to ask : what is the difference between Americans & yogurt ??----> yogurt has got culture !!

shctaw

May 8th, 2008, 03:55 AM

LittlePig

May 8th, 2008, 03:59 AM

Right on yet again my Lord... we have all forgotten how we survived the air-con-less days, the days without internet, cell phones, cable TV...

LittlePig

May 8th, 2008, 04:02 AM

Vibrant in Paris , London etc are created by the community. Vibrant in Singapore is made by the Government. Still in the making..... result will show up in time.

bro, Singapore has the potential to become a global city rivaling London and soon you'll be reading your Black Swan right smack in the middle of it all... :lol:

Veru

May 8th, 2008, 05:31 AM

bro, Singapore has the potential to become a global city rivaling London and soon you'll be reading your Black Swan right smack in the middle of it all... :lol:

Actually my dear LittlePig, what worries me most is the social fallout as I do not think that Sg locals have yet figured out the Sg gahments "evil" plan to invite rich foreigners to Sg with their millions while many many locals still remain in support services (for the rich) like taxi-drivers/gahment employees/hawker stall owners/hotel services etc ---- a huge "underclass" of native tax-paying Sg citizens will remain crammed in HDB while the rich PR tax-free non-citizen Indonesian-Malays-etc move into the mega-expensive Marina Bay view apartments :ohno: Any (contra) views fellow forumers ?? A solution could be to TAX all real & personal property transactions/income earned in Sg on an equal basis as locals as the 1st stage.............

hayata1972

May 8th, 2008, 06:05 AM

Actually my dear LittlePig, what worries me most is the social fallout as I do not think that Sg locals have yet figured out the Sg gahments "evil" plan to invite rich foreigners to Sg with their millions while many many locals still remain in support services (for the rich) like taxi-drivers/gahment employees/hawker stall owners/hotel services etc ---- a huge "underclass" of native tax-paying Sg citizens will remain crammed in HDB while the rich PR tax-free non-citizen Indonesian-Malays-etc move into the mega-expensive Marina Bay view apartments :ohno: Any (contra) views fellow forumers ?? A solution could be to TAX all real & personal property transactions/income earned in Sg on an equal basis as locals as the 1st stage.............

Lord Vader, we have known all along about this Evil plan by the Slith lords, but, when the Emperor commands we cannot say no. As imperial commanders, we have to watch what we say.:)

Singapore will be like the death star. The evil doer's haven. The emperor will not change the rules as long it deems fit for Dark side to prosper.:nuts: But by taxing the uber evil more, they will rather move on to planet Naboo Aka "HK" which our Slith lords will not accept.

In fact our Slith lords with the blessing of our Emperor, may reduce the taxes for the uber evil even more..... After all they will still contribute by spending and gambling.

Baby

May 8th, 2008, 06:38 AM

bigbird72

May 8th, 2008, 06:53 AM

Hey there Buddy BigBird72 in Pasadena :) I am in Sydney now, then Auckland & then Pasadena next week -- boy with the USD becoming "toilet paper" the rest of the world is surely "overpriced" in USD terms :lol: Always shop in the USA buddy -- try the premium outlets (Hugo Boss/ Dolce & Gabbana for example at 1/3 to 1/2 Sg prices) at Cabazon-->Desert Hills Premium Outlets (next to Palm Springs --great resort) about 2 hours east max from Pasadena

yes. hit premium outlets in my first week here. loaded branded stuff for people back home. stuff are really 30-50% cheaper than SG. :)

will be in vegas next week.

bigbird72

May 8th, 2008, 07:02 AM

Singapore is more expensive in USD term. Our safety environment have put a premium in everything that we can put a price tag on.

The 30% cheaper is equal to 25% appreciation of SGD from 1.8000 to 1.3500.

not really. things are also cheaper than SG prices, even before sgd appreciated.

i think consumer stuff are cheaper because of higher vol. and lower rent. sg retail rentals are killed. so higher markups.

things are xpensive in sg because of high land and labour costs. nothing to do with safety premium.

bigbird72

May 8th, 2008, 07:10 AM

The man on the street can reserve the rights to punish the lord every 4 years - this is called democratic.

i think there will be a level of low-skill foreigners (PRCs etc ) to support the low-end service industries. Thats why lower income group is at high risk.
if anything, i rather be a slum lord, than high end condo landlord.

on the whole, singaporeans will face competition at all levels. Thats why we need to 'tax' foreigners thru high rentals...

shctaw

May 8th, 2008, 10:30 AM

i think there will be a level of low-skill foreigners (PRCs etc ) to support the low-end service industries. Thats why lower income group is at high risk.
if anything, i rather be a slum lord, than high end condo landlord.

on the whole, singaporeans will face competition at all levels. Thats why we need to 'tax' foreigners thru high rentals...

You are correct about the Rental killing business.

My dad business and my brother business are both killed by rental in the 90s. I tell myself 2 things.

1. I will not do business unless I own the property that is needed to run the business.

2. Property is more important than the business. If I fail in business I will only sell the business and I will never sell the property that run the business.

kopiluver

May 8th, 2008, 11:53 AM

You are correct about the Rental killing business.

My dad business and my brother business are both killed by rental in the 90s. I tell myself 2 things.

1. I will not do business unless I own the property that is needed to run the business.

2. Property is more important than the business. If I fail in business I will only sell the business and I will never sell the property that run the business.

Actually, I too know of many businesses that failed despite not having to pay rent(they owned the place). But after seling the premises that was needed to run the business, it still netted a tidy sum!

The lesson here is:

1. Sit back, do nothing (earn money while you sleep) ... work hard still must pay $ (losses)

2. Collect rent (rather than no rent while working hard, & not getting paid)

3. The two pronged approach of inflation (aka capital gains) and rental yields. (Either of which can make u wealthy). Works wonders... all it takes is time!

Let me name a few examples that did extremely well bcos biz was good, feel free to add on:

1. Valley Park for F&N
2. Tan Chong motors
3. Mariott / Tangs
4. Mr. ____ Joo Chiat

bigbird72

May 8th, 2008, 11:56 AM

Veru

May 8th, 2008, 01:32 PM

The man on the street can reserve the rights to punish the lord every 4 years - this is called democratic.

Baby I am sure that every 4 years in the USA & also in India (amongst others) the hoi polloi can & do punish the nasty IMCUMBENTS ----> are you SURE that that is possible in Sg ?? Me have some niggling doubts but ..... you the man.................:ohno:

hayata1972

May 8th, 2008, 02:08 PM

Baby I am sure that every 4 years in the USA & also in India (amongst others) the hoi polloi can & do punish the nasty IMCUMBENTS ----> are you SURE that that is possible in Sg ?? Me have some niggling doubts but ..... you the man.................:ohno:

Lord Vader, before the coming of every 4 years, the sith lords will provide special handouts and bonuses for the slaves of the death star. With this, the procession of the dark side will carry on FOREVER!!!:lol:

hayata1972

May 8th, 2008, 02:11 PM

know of indian bros who sells sports shoes at queensway and penisular plaza. they made a conscious effort to do what u said, more than 20 yrs back. probably made more money from shops than shoes.

same to be said for CK Tang..

If i am not wrong, Royal brothers and Royal Sporting house is the same Group?

Royal Sporting house group owns the ZARA brand as well as MANGO in Singapore and many others....

Royal Brothers owns many retail shops and residental units everywhere.

Did they started by selling footware in peninsula and queensway?

hayata1972

May 8th, 2008, 02:15 PM

Actually, I too know of many businesses that failed despite not having to pay rent(they owned the place). But after seling the premises that was needed to run the business, it still netted a tidy sum!

The lesson here is:

1. Sit back, do nothing (earn money while you sleep) ... work hard still must pay $ (losses)

2. Collect rent (rather than no rent while working hard, & not getting paid)

3. The two pronged approach of inflation (aka capital gains) and rental yields. (Either of which can make u wealthy). Works wonders... all it takes is time!

Let me name a few examples that did extremely well bcos biz was good, feel free to add on:

1. Valley Park for F&N
2. Tan Chong motors
3. Mariott / Tangs
4. Mr. ____ Joo Chiat

Bro kopi, actually

3. Tangs used to do well under the old man, apparently after the son took over, they lost so much that Mariott now belongs to UOB. Tangs right now..... Check the share price and you would understand.

1. F&N is definately solid as steel.

2. Tan Chong motors don't need to say.

4. Who is the Mr._______ joo chiat?

hayata1972

May 8th, 2008, 02:19 PM

PreciseDrive

May 8th, 2008, 06:01 PM

Warren Buffett Real Estate CEO Sees Housing Comeback
CNBC
U.S.
Thursday, 8 May 2008, 11:10 am U.S. EDT

The battered housing market has steadied and is ready to bounce back off an inevitable pullback from its boom times in the earlier part of the decade, said Ron Peltier, the CEO at Warren Buffett's Homeservices of America real estate company.

"I think the real truth is the market has been in a phase of correction," Peltier said on CNBC this morning. "We are seeing some light at the end of the tunnel."

At the same time, Peltier gave a candid analysis of what led to the housing meltdown in the first place.

He said the market sprinted ahead of itself price-wise, while unscrupulous lenders and appraisers compounded the industry's problems by putting too many people in houses they couldn't afford.

"We new it was an overheated market," Peltier said. "There were people for the first time ever having opportunity to buy part of the American dream under credit conditions and credit guidelines that were very, very shaky at best.

"And they were buying at the peak of the market with very low teaser rates, not fully understanding the implications of that adjustable-rate mortgage setting some time in the future and the probability that they could not afford that home under the new reset conditions. That's a travesty, because there are a lot of people that got hurt."

Peltier put much of the blame squarely on lenders who often doled out mortgages that did not require documentation regarding assets or income.

"A lot of people bought ahead of themselves," he said. "Frankly, I think to some degree the lending industry, the mortgage business, lost its moral compass in terms of providing the proper credit standards and qualifications."

As for how things shape up going forward, Peltier said market has returned to its pre-boom times, with home sales tracking at about 5 million annually.

"I think that's a normalized market and I think that's a sustainable level," he said.

But he divides the market into two parts: the primary market of discretionary sellers, and the distressed market, which includes some of the areas that saw the meteoric rise and now are suffering the consequences of excess.

"Housing prices are still within 8 to 10% of all-time highs," Peltier said. "The markets that have fallen off the most are actually the markets that were the most overheated."

Speculators hurt those markets, with 25% of all sales from 2001 to 2006 going to those betting on making quick profits rather than buying homes in which they planned to live for an extended period.

As the market normalizes, Peltier believes stability will return and prices and sales numbers will get back to sustainable levels.

He worries, though, about pressure on the consumer from soaring fuel costs and tightened credit standards at the institutions that were beaten down by the collapse of the subprime lending market.

"Buying a home is a function of how they can finance it," Peltier said. "If credit standards are extremely tough and expensive, the ability to close a sale is that much more difficult."

He called on Congress to find a workable solution to the housing crisis, something that has been elusive as the legislators and President Bush spar over who should benefit from pending legislation.

On the broader political landscape, Peltier said the housing industry generally does better when Republicans are in office, though he did not endorse a specific candidate in the presidential race.

"There has been more showboating and discussion than actual rubber that meets the road," he said regarding the legislative impasse. "The fact of the matter is we really need to have some new legislation in place to slow down and stall the foreclosures where people basically bought into a home under mortgage financing programs they didn't understand."

kopiluver

May 9th, 2008, 03:52 AM

Bro kopi, actually

3. Tangs used to do well under the old man, apparently after the son took over, they lost so much that Mariott now belongs to UOB. Tangs right now..... Check the share price and you would understand.

1. F&N is definately solid as steel.

2. Tan Chong motors don't need to say.

4. Who is the Mr._______ joo chiat?

My point exactly! Old Tang bought much property with the $ his biz brought in... without having the land on Orchard Rd which is part Mariott, the $Millions that came in from sale to UOB wouldnt have materialised...

Just u wait till their old bungalow on St Thomas turns into salable condo units and the cashflow becomes recognised... it is now the biz that is pulling the asset down... without owning the buildings... without having to pay rents(theoritically)... sale of the building would still net lots of moola for the brothers...

4. Owned all the land on left of Joo Chiat Rd. Road was aquired by state & happily given up cos it was like state building a railway line for him to bullock cart his produce(fr his plantations) from East Coast to the North (Paya Lebar) for free.

Although his decendants dont own much of what's left... I think his estate could have been much bigger than F&N and CK Tang's combined if u add the value of just raw land roughly bounded by Haig Rd/East Coast/Still Rd/Changi Rd... that he owned.

bigbird72

May 9th, 2008, 04:06 AM

If i am not wrong, Royal brothers and Royal Sporting house is the same Group?

Royal Sporting house group owns the ZARA brand as well as MANGO in Singapore and many others....

Royal Brothers owns many retail shops and residental units everywhere.

Did they started by selling footware in peninsula and queensway?

royal bros owns royal sporting house until they sold to arab.

the indians bros i refer to is not royal bros..

DRSG

May 10th, 2008, 12:58 PM

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN0839917020080508?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Hope so.Parc Seabreeze choice units above terrace preview price >1700 psf.:cheers:All Seaview owners shld :banana::banana::banana::banana:

hayata1972

May 10th, 2008, 01:44 PM

BengBeng

May 10th, 2008, 03:34 PM

Parc Seabreeze is very bullish to put out at this price right now.

AA) How can Parc Seabreeze sell lower than Silversea which is 99 years?
BB) And also they are looking into high construction costs now and in due time. Which can eat into the profits or even a lost if they sell too low. Everythings is getting double or even triple price increase. Steel, sand, cement, labors etc etc.......and of course, they are bullish about Singapore future developments.
CC) D15 is the next D11....hot items.......many expats are shifting to D15 from D11. Even CEO shifted to landed property in D15 when their lease expire in D11.
DD) D15 is doing a catch up.
EE) :banana::banana::banana:

cnud

May 11th, 2008, 04:18 AM

I remember my mom says Katong is Golden... this place has a charm to itself.. D15 has always been popular with expats. It will continue to do well with the new Paya Lebar Hub..

DRSG

May 11th, 2008, 06:13 AM

Katong and Frankel were the homes of the old rich until the MIW moves to D.10.

shctaw

May 11th, 2008, 07:05 AM

Katong and Frankel were the homes of the old rich until the MIW moves to D.10.

Evolution of PRIME.

1970 China Town
1980 Katong
1990 Bukit Timah
2000 Orchard Road
2010 marina Bay

:lol:2020 Malaysia Boleh! :lol:

shctaw

May 11th, 2008, 07:08 AM

Evolution of PRIME.

1970 China Town
1980 Katong
1990 Bukit Timah
2000 Orchard Road
2010 marina Bay

:lol:2020 Malaysia Boleh! :lol:

I know a very old time Property Investor cum GURU told me.

In trading you follow trend , Instinct & Sentiment. In Property you follow Prime Area, Instinct & Sentiment.

DRSG

May 11th, 2008, 07:12 AM

Old rich still want to stay on the ground.
Marina Bay is for the New Rich.Old ways die hard.The rich rich still stays in D.10.Nassim,Dalvey,Tanglin etc.

shctaw

May 11th, 2008, 07:17 AM

Old rich still want to stay on the ground.
Marina Bay is for the New Rich.Old ways die hard.The rich rich still stays in D.10.Nassim,Dalvey,Tanglin etc.

New rich are in their 30s or 40s, in 10 years time they too become old and start to move to join their old peers.:lol:

Baby

May 11th, 2008, 05:15 PM

Before 1990s, we only heard of millionaires.
Over last decade, we started to see billionaires.
By 2020, we will start to see trillionaires.

In the 1970s, the "6 million" dollar man was a huge investment.
In the 2008, the "iron" man is man of billionaire.
Money becoming smaller and smaller or man become richer and richer ?

cnud

May 12th, 2008, 05:27 AM

It's the power of inflation.

Chinatown area - interest due to its vicinity to CBD
Katong area - interest due to sea, Peranakan eateries, and away from hustle bustle near work place
Bt Timah area - interest due to many outstanding local and international schools
Orchard area - interest due to endless shopping and CBD
Marina area - interest due to bet on FUTURE much like the Jurong Lake Area

Baby

May 12th, 2008, 06:55 AM

Cannot compare Marina Bay to Jurong lake lah ...... two different extreme playground.

Anyway, PAP trying to create too many hubs and centres all over Singapore, not necessary all will be successful.

Only if they can make One North as successful as Silicon Valley, and MBFC as successful as Wall Street, and Sentosa Genting and Sands IR as famous as Las Vegas, that will be more than enough to keep Singapore at the top of the world city.

DRSG

May 12th, 2008, 07:01 AM

Jurong for the aunties,uncle and ah sohs lah.

shctaw

May 12th, 2008, 09:46 AM

CNUD stay in Jurong Lah.

I think Marina Bay can compare to Jalan Loyang Besar, now you know where I stay.....

DRSG

May 12th, 2008, 10:05 AM

Marina Bay will be the place for shooting dramas like SG Confidential or SeX in the City.Corporate takeovers .Sail owners shld invite the Spiderman from Paris to climb it.

Cheers.

cnud

May 12th, 2008, 11:22 AM

I don't stay at Jurong. We dont want to offend people staying there leh..

cnud

May 12th, 2008, 11:23 AM

I don't blame shctaw who's just trying to defend his vested interest..

BengBeng

May 12th, 2008, 11:56 AM

CNUD stay in Jurong Lah.

I think Marina Bay can compare to Jalan Loyang Besar, now you know where I stay.....

Hello shctaw, since you are in JLB area......you must have know this Bluwater 2 project. Are they fully sold! How many units still available? Understand few more new launches are on the way.
Went there few weeks ago to view Aston Res. Looks like that place is getting 'Hot'.......many viewers and also buyers. Any reasons why is it so? I am getting interested in that place.

shctaw

May 13th, 2008, 03:56 AM

I don't blame shctaw who's just trying to defend his vested interest..

You don't angry hor.......

I do not think my home is "vested interested", my home is liability to me as it take money out of my pocket.:)

PS: I only consider my Marina Bay units solid asset.

Hello shctaw, since you are in JLB area......you must have know this Bluwater 2 project. Are they fully sold! How many units still available? Understand few more new launches are on the way.
Went there few weeks ago to view Aston Res. Looks like that place is getting 'Hot'.......many viewers and also buyers. Any reasons why is it so? I am getting interested in that place.

Do not know leh, I pei seh go inside as I only buy from secondary market. I know 1 project is launching and the showroom is in front of Aston Res's showroom. Another showroom is building currently (only got frame) oppoisite Loyang Gardens Condo.

Hot due to E!hub, buy for self stay is OK. Buy to invest must be very lucky to make money as new projects prices are at a 50% premium of secondary market. I told my friend about my home and after a short tour he bought Aston Res at $2.5 million.

Note: New project average $750-$850 psf, secondary projects around $500-$650 psf. Personal favorites secondary projects are Edgewater, Watercrest, Loyang Gardens & leasehold Lighthouse.

Any reasons why is it so? I am getting interested in that place.

Tell me another place in Singapore that is 5 minutes walk to

1. A Cinema
2. A bowling Center
3. Beach
4. NTUC Fairprice
5. 10 Resturants
6. Explorer Kid
7. Country Club
8. 3 pub
9. Fishing Pond
10. Parks all around
11. Wild Wild Wet
12. Theme Park
13. D'Marque Concert Hall
14. Chalet
15. Hotel Room (Aranda Country Club)
16. 2 Jackpot rooms

I cannot think of another place in Singapore, East Coast do not even come close. (East Coast is more prime hor)

BengBeng

May 13th, 2008, 09:33 AM

You don't angry hor.......

I do not think my home is "vested interested", my home is liability to me as it take money out of my pocket.:)

PS: I only consider my Marina Bay units solid asset.

Do not know leh, I pei seh go inside as I only buy from secondary market. I know 1 project is launching and the showroom is in front of Aston Res's showroom. Another showroom is building currently (only got frame) oppoisite Loyang Gardens Condo.

Hot due to E!hub, buy for self stay is OK. Buy to invest must be very lucky to make money as new projects prices are at a 50% premium of secondary market. I told my friend about my home and after a short tour he bought Aston Res at $2.5 million.

Note: New project average $750-$850 psf, secondary projects around $500-$650 psf. Personal favorites secondary projects are Edgewater, Watercrest, Loyang Gardens & leasehold Lighthouse.

Tell me another place in Singapore that is 5 minutes walk to

1. A Cinema
2. A bowling Center
3. Beach
4. NTUC Fairprice
5. 10 Resturants
6. Explorer Kid
7. Country Club
8. 3 pub
9. Fishing Pond
10. Parks all around
11. Wild Wild Wet
12. Theme Park
13. D'Marque Concert Hall
14. Chalet
15. Hotel Room (Aranda Country Club)
16. 2 Jackpot rooms

I cannot think of another place in Singapore, East Coast do not even come close. (East Coast is more prime hor)

Tks. Yr 16 points are good enough. Appreciate......will pop in and look at those JLB and surrounding area. Lovely.

cnud

May 13th, 2008, 10:05 AM

Must agree Downtown East is really quite successful. To go there on a weekend, you must have lots of patience to find a parking lot or otherwise you have to walk there..

Propty-aire

May 14th, 2008, 07:13 AM

http://star.walagata.com/w/ghisallo/42339025.pdf

DRSG

May 14th, 2008, 11:50 AM

http://star.walagata.com/w/ghisallo/42339025.pdf

Read with a pinch of salt.

arthur

May 14th, 2008, 12:39 PM

US home foreclosures hit fresh high in April: survey

WASHINGTON - In a further sign of the still-troubled US housing market, a survey on Wednesday showed home foreclosure actions hit a fresh all-time high in April of 243,353.

The survey by the research firm RealtyTrac said the percentage of foreclosure actions - including default, auction sale notices and bank repossessions - rose 4 per cent from the prior month and 65 per cent year-over-year.

The report showed one in every 519 US households received a foreclosure filing during the month.

‘The total number of US properties with foreclosure activity in April was the highest monthly total we’ve seen since we began issuing the report in January 2005,’ said James Saccacio, chief executive of RealtyTrac.

‘Although only about 2 per cent of households nationwide are in foreclosure, these properties contribute to already bloated inventories of homes for sale, and put downward pressure on home values.’

Areas of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona that had seen booming home values before the property meltdown continue to be particularly hard-hit by foreclosure activity, the survey showed.

Despite a 5 per cent month-over-month decrease in foreclosure activity in April, Nevada continued to hold the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate, RealtyTrac said, with one in every 146 Nevada households in foreclosure, 3.6 times the national average.

California had the second highest rate in April, with one in every 204 households receiving a foreclosure filing. — AFP

PreciseDrive

May 14th, 2008, 01:10 PM

http://star.walagata.com/w/ghisallo/42339025.pdf
Read with a pinch of salt.

Just saw the following reply in another forum:
Report that tells us to buy is "con".
Report that tells us to sell is also "con".

You seem easily "conned" by this report that tell us to sell.

Soleil #28-01 was bought for $1,350,000 and subsold at $1,500,000 for a profit. Both caveats were lodged at different time. Yet CS blindly took it that price has dropped from $1,500,000 to $1,350,000. The analyst did not have access to the paid URA system or what?

Soleil #35-07 was sold at $1,680,000 and #11-07 was sold at $1,096,000 1.5 months later. CS blindly took it that price has dropped from $1,680,000 to $1,096,000. The analyst did not have any formal education or what?

There are transaction that shows prices went up too. Why did CS only choose the ones that show down? Does the analyst has a biased objective in mind?

This CS report is totally bullshit!

I am neither a bull or a bear but research house should publish a report that is totally misleading, wrong and biased. I would rather analyse the URA data myself than to trust in this CS report or any other reports.

landlubber

May 14th, 2008, 04:43 PM

http://star.walagata.com/w/ghisallo/42339025.pdf
it's a rather strange report. Among other things they show that homes have actually become more affordable today than 10 years ago, but try to dismiss that by saying 71st - 80th percentile incomes have increased more slowly than house prices. The spin is so glaring as to be almost laughable.

The last time i checked, this group of home buyers are HDB upgraders. Yet the analysts think that the mass market will be more resilient than high end. No analysis was made on the affordability and purchasing behaviour of high end home owners.

Morgan Stanley also put out a bearish report on property recently. It's much easier for analysts to follow the trend, and to write something that people will read. At the end of the day, it does not matter what they write. As long as they write something and clients trade and generate brokerage. They live on soft commissions.

AK47

May 14th, 2008, 07:40 PM

Its a new subsale high isnt it?

THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY MARINA BOULEVARD Apartment 3,500,000 1,033 3,387 Apr

arthur

May 15th, 2008, 02:16 AM

Its a new subsale high isnt it?

THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY MARINA BOULEVARD Apartment 3,500,000 1,033 3,387 Apr
#60-03

Baby

May 15th, 2008, 03:17 AM

So cheap ? :)

LittlePig

May 15th, 2008, 03:25 AM

so cheap can buy ya, Baby? :)

kopiluver

May 15th, 2008, 04:59 AM

http://star.walagata.com/w/ghisallo/42339025.pdf

Read with a pinch of salt.

My discovery:

Anyone recently bought a sub-sale unit in the Sale or Soleil?

I realised that the later caveat info of a unit is lower(or the actual purchase price the seller bought maybe even more than a year ago - but date is lodged at around the current legal completion date).

Whereas the earlier date was perhaps the date sub-purchaser exercised option and lawyer was duty bound to "protect" purchase when sub-purchaser "decided" to go ahead by paying the 4% option money.

While the seller's lawyer only need to lodge the caveat of the orig buyer's purchase at the end of the transaction (usually bcos buy direct from developer & no risk that there is ano caveat on unit) and since it was on DPS, no urgency to lodge till completion...

This sometimes happens even if orig buyer already lodged caveat when they pruchased in '06... don't know why seller(orig buyer) lawyer still re-lodge caveat upon completion of transfer to sub-purchaser...

This data actually confuses the PPI when the index is computed... e.g.

District Project Name Location Unit # Type Flr SqFt Flr $PSF Cont Date Transacted Tenure

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

D07 SOUTHBANK 881 NORTH BRIDGE RD 14-06 APT 592 $576 25/07/2007 $341040 99 YRS FR 27/01/2006

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

D07 SOUTHBANK 881 NORTH BRIDGE RD 14-06 APT 592 $875 08/06/2007 $518000 99 YRS FR 27/01/2006

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

D07 SOUTHBANK 881 NORTH BRIDGE RD 14-06 APT 592 $875 08/06/2007 $518000 99 YRS FR 27/01/2006

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

D07 SOUTHBANK 881 NORTH BRIDGE RD 14-06 APT 592 $709 08/05/2007 $420000 99 YRS FR 27/01/2006

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

D07 SOUTHBANK 881 NORTH BRIDGE RD 14-06 APT 592 $576 08/08/2006 $341040 99 YRS FR 27/01/2006

DRSG

May 15th, 2008, 05:21 AM

Those at Credit Suisse made to do some homework.Sian lah.No time for shopping and clubbing just whack lah.Sentiments down,coy not doing well bear report is more in keeping with the trend.

PreciseDrive

May 15th, 2008, 07:31 AM

4 bungalows sold for $5.5M each
$22 million transaction works out to $1,128 psf of built-up area
Kalpana Rashiwala
The Business Times
Thursday, 15 May 2008

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2008-05-15/BT_IMAGES_KRFINE15.jpg
Quartet on Vanda: The freehold cluster on a 12,300 sq ft site at Vanda Crescent off Dunearn Road was bought by a European and his Singaporean wife. Each two-storey unit has an attic, a basement and a swimming pool

Amid the current quiet residential market, some deals are still being stitched up.

All four strata bungalows in a freehold cluster housing development near Eng Neo Avenue were snapped up at $5.5 million each at a preview on Friday last week by a European with a Singaporean wife.

The $22 million transaction works out to $1,128 psf of built-up area. 'The units were bought partly for the buyers' own use and partly for investment,' said Jerry Tan, managing director of JTResi, the sole marketing agent for Quartet on Vanda. JTResi previewed the development over a 'champagne supper' at its premises on Club Street May 9 evening and the four units were sold during the course of the evening.

The bungalows, which are expected to be completed early next year, are being developed by Stanley Quek's Region Development on a 12,300 sq ft site at Vanda Crescent off Dunearn Road. Each two-storey unit has an attic, a basement and a swimming pool. Built-up areas range from 4,844 sq ft to 4,919 sq ft.

'The market is not as dead as people may perceive it to be. For better quality developments that are priced sensibly, there will be buyers,' Mr Tan said.

Dr Quek is also developing a couple of conventional bungalows on the next-door plot which will come on the market soon, Mr Tan revealed. Each two-storey bungalow will have an attic and have a land area of about 5,000 sq ft.

JTResi, a seven-year-old boutique residential property consultancy, has also been quietly doing resale and leasing deals at The Grange, which received its Temporary Occupation Permit a couple of months ago. 'About four weeks ago, we sold the penthouse at The Grange for $11 million to a Singapore PR who is from mainland China,' Mr Tan revealed. The deal for the 4,400 sq ft duplex unit worked out to just under $2,500 psf and the seller had bought it from the developer for about $6.8 million in 2005, according to Mr Tan.

JTResi also recently brokered leasing deals in the development at a monthly rental of $15,000 for a three-bedroom apartment of 1,765 sq ft below the penthouse, and four-bedroom, pool-facing unit on a low floor at $16,000.

The Grange comprises two freehold blocks of 19 and 23 storeys.

Cushman & Wakefield last month also brokered the sale of a four-bedroom unit on the 17th floor of The Grange for $6.2 million or $2,692 psf. The buyer is a Singapore PR who is believed to have invested in other luxury apartments here.

The seller had bought the unit (in the subsale market) for $4.15 million or $1,801 psf in late 2006. 'The vendor made a cool $2 million profit after holding the asset for 1.5 years. Due to the run-up in prices in the last 12 months, some vendors have made enough 'paper gains' to realise a decent profit even if they sell at today's prices,' said Cushman managing director Donald Han.

Mr Han estimates The Grange unit his firm sold recently might have fetched just under $3,000 psf had it changed hands last year when sentiment was stronger. 'Generally, there's support for prime residential properties which appeal to foreign investors and where yields are fairly attractive,' he added.

Veru

May 15th, 2008, 07:56 AM

so cheap can buy ya, Baby? :)

Whats up littlepig, my dear friend --> why are you :bash: poor littlebaby lah ?? Both you & baby pool up & buy together --that will work !!

LittlePig

May 15th, 2008, 08:27 AM

Whats up littlepig, my dear friend --> why are you :bash: poor littlebaby lah ?? Both you & baby pool up & buy together --that will work !!

I'd love to pool with Baby!! Seriously! :)

Veru

May 15th, 2008, 08:43 AM

Baby

May 15th, 2008, 02:35 PM

I'd love to pool with Baby!! Seriously! :)

Just nice !

Not enough credit, bank only willing to loan me 50%. So no cash to pay the other 50%....what a poor baby..... :lol:

Was waiting the price to go furthur down.... Sail is still the way to go....but bay or IR view are still the one to go for ;) ........

I went to 8 Rodyk last Sunday, and was asking if they offer absorb interest....I was told "NO" !!!

Today, I heard 8 Rodyk offering absorb stamp duty and absorbing interest.
Just wondering those who had bought last weekend or before, will they :bash:......
Looks like smaller developer want to quickly clear their units.....one of the nice waterfront development, but still no way as good as Sail in location and waterfront view.

arthur

May 15th, 2008, 03:08 PM

GIC says sub-prime hurting Asia property

GIC says sub-prime hurting Asia property

SINGAPORE - The real estate arm of sovereign wealth fund the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC) said on Thursday that the US sub-prime crisis is beginning to hurt Asian property markets such as Japan and Australia.

‘The contagion effects of the sub-prime crisis can potentially accelerate the downward spin of the current property cycle,’ Seek Ngee Huat, the president of GIC Real Estate, said in a speech at a property industry conference.

‘Some market weakening is being sensed in Asia, particularly in Japan and in Australia.’

The comments came after Dubai World, the investment firm of the Dubai government, said last month the US sub-prime housing crisis has slowed its investment decisions this year, but it is still holding on to US real estate assets.

GIC, estimated to be the world’s third-largest sovereign wealth fund with US$330 billion in assets, is also ranked among the world’s top 10 property investors, owning buildings such as Merrill Lynch’s London office and Westin Paris.

GIC’s Mr Seek said that he sees opportunities amid the sub-prime wreckage, but added there would be competition from other institutional players.

‘As always weak markets favour those with the capacity to take strategic positions, and so the sub-prime meltdown presents threats as well as opportunities,’ he said.

Mr Seek said GIC started out investing in developed markets and only started to focus on emerging markets in Asia in the mid-1990s.

Singapore, which saw private home prices jump 31 per cent in 2007 in the largest rise in eight years, is witnessing a slowdown as sales volumes slumped in the first quarter to the lowest since the 2003 Sars epidemic.

The Singapore government’s moves to cool the property market, by ending a scheme that allowed delayed payments, coupled with the impact of a global slowdown, have already hit the bottomline of developers CapitaLand and Keppel Land. — REUTERS

Source: Business Times

arthur

May 15th, 2008, 03:09 PM

Private home sales slide in April

Private home sales slide in April

Number of new homes sold and launched fall sharply

By Fiona Chan

PRIVATE home sales weakened further last month, with the number of new homes launched and sold dropping sharply from March.

Developers launched just 271 units in April, most of them in mass market projects. This was less than half of what they launched in March, and the lowest number since the Urban Redevelopment Authority started releasing monthly sales figures last June.

Buyers took up 274 homes, down from the 301 sold in March.

Prices also continued to dip, with the median price of new sales sliding 8.9 per cent to $943 per sq ft.

Among the best-selling projects last month were the 56-unit Stadia in Yio Chu Kang Road, which sold 52 units, and the 88-unit Breeze by the East in Upper East Coast Road, where 22 units were sold.

The 848-unit Lakeshore in Jurong West saw another 32 units sold, while 14 units were taken up at the 625-unit Quartz in Buangkok.

Source: Straits Times

arthur

May 15th, 2008, 03:10 PM

Hi King Arthur !!
I had a 1st hand view of the AUS & NZ real estate markets -- down down down :ohno:
Am off to California today -- 3 cities --San Diego, San Francisco & Los Angeles -- will report 1st hand on the California real estate market when I get there.
Finally I will report from the UK at months end before heading back for a quick check of the Sg market 1st week of June.

I really do believe the best way to gauge the news/views is to visit 1st hand & talk to my ultra-high-networth investor friends in Silicon Valley who have the funds to invest & also get the best reports/advise from top advisorsLook forward to hear from you. I read the UK is not doing well too...

arthur

May 15th, 2008, 03:19 PM

Just nice !

Not enough credit, bank only willing to loan me 50%. So no cash to pay the other 50%....what a poor baby..... :lol:

Was waiting the price to go furthur down.... Sail is still the way to go....but bay or IR view are still the one to go for ;) ........

I went to 8 Rodyk last Sunday, and was asking if they offer absorb interest....I was told "NO" !!!

Today, I heard 8 Rodyk offering absorb stamp duty and absorbing interest.
Just wondering those who had bought last weekend or before, will they :bash:......
Looks like smaller developer want to quickly clear their units.....one of the nice waterfront development, but still no way as good as Sail in location and waterfront view.
the finishing is good hor....

arthur

May 15th, 2008, 03:45 PM

IMF chief says worst of financial crisis is over

BRUSSELS - THE worst of the financial sector crisis is over although the impact on the broader economy will likely drag on in coming months, IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Thursday.

‘There are good reasons to believe that the largest part of disclosure in financial institutions has been done, especially in the United States… so that the worst news is behind us,’ he told a panel at the European Parliament.

‘The main problem is the linkages between the financial crisis and the real economy and this is not behind us,’ he added, estimating the impact of the financial turmoil to weigh on economic activity for another ’several quarters’.

Economic growth has lost pace in most major economies recently in the wake of a slump in the US housing market, which has triggered extreme financial market volatility and reluctance among banks to make all but the safest loans.

After months of nerve-wracking swings in financial markets, optimism has begun to emerge among market participants that the worst of the storm has blown over since the collapse of the US investment bank Bear Stearns in mid March.

While past financial crises tended to be triggered by problems in developing countries, often with current account problems, Mr Strauss-Kahn warned that in the long term the recent turmoil would likely be ‘a taste of the new kind of crisis that we are going to face’.

With big developed economies such as the US and Europe slowing following the turmoil, Mr Strauss-Kahn said that emerging countries would be the biggest motors behind world economic growth this year.

Nevertheless, he insisted that such fast growing economies would also eventually feel the impact of the slowdown in rich countries, although perhaps with ’some delay’.

‘In no way is there some sort decoupling’ between economic growth trends in developed countries and emerging economies, he said, weighing into one of the hottest debates currently in economics. – AFP

Source: Straits Times

PreciseDrive

May 15th, 2008, 05:18 PM

Sales in private residential market dip in April
Ng Baoying
Channel NewsAsia
Thursday, 15 May 2008, 2136 hrs

Sales in the private residential market have dipped in April after a mild recovery in March.

According to the numbers of private home sales released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), only 274 units were sold last month – down from 301 units in March.

Developers were also holding back, with only 271 units launched in April – the lowest number of units since market weakness surfaced in September last year.

Analysts said they expect the market to continue moving gingerly.

Homebuyers in the mass market are keeping the numbers moving along as nine out of every 10 units sold in April were in the suburban areas. This belies the overall cautious stance that homebuyers are taking.

Chua Chor Hoon, Senior Director of Research, DTZ Debenham Tie Leung, said: "Speculation is almost nil. Most buyers we see in the market are probably those buying for owner occupation, with needs for accommodation."

With buying and selling almost at a standstill, analysts said the ball is now in the developers' court.

Colin Tan, Director of Research & Consultancy, Chesterton International, said: "Looking forward, you can see that in order to raise their sales, developers will need to price their units more realistically. As you can see from the April figures, those that have done so are being rewarded with higher sales."

But the URA figures also show that prices remain firm for high-end units and developers for those units are choosing to wait out.

"Developers are still holding back launches, especially for bigger projects and those at higher end range. What we see are mostly launches in suburban areas with units priced below S$1,000 psf," Mr Chua said.

While the latest data may seem to provide more evidence of a weak housing market, analysts said numbers are very thin and have cautioned against reading too deeply into them as they could be potentially misleading.

arthur

May 16th, 2008, 02:44 AM

Further drop in new home sales and launches in April

Prices also show signs of weakening as buyers adopt a more cautious stance

By Fiona Chan

THE private home market continued to weaken last month, with launches of new homes falling to their lowest level in at least 10 months.

Sales volumes and median prices also dipped, according to monthly figures released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority yesterday.

Developers launched only 271 homes last month, fewer than half the 642 units launched in March.

The number of homes sold also fell, to 274 in the month, from 322 previously. These figures exclude executive condominiums.

‘It is clear that homebuyers were in no hurry to make purchases and were taking more time to assess the market,’ said Mr Li Hiaw Ho, the executive director of CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) Research.

He attributed this trend to the continuing instability of financial markets and increasing concerns over the higher cost of living.

Perhaps as a result of the slowdown, prices have begun to show signs of strain.

An analysis by property firm Knight Frank found median prices of new homes sold last month had slid 9 per cent to $943 per sq ft (psf), from $1,035 psf in March.

One reason for the lower prices could be that most of the homes launched and sold were in cheaper mass-market developments.

Eight out of 10 homes sold in the month cost $1,000 psf or less. Only seven homes, or about 2 per cent of the total sold, fetched more than $2,000 psf.

This is a major reversal from previous months. As recently as in December, more than 70 per cent of the homes sold for the month cost more than $2,000 psf.

The strength of the mass-market segment last month was the bright spot in an otherwise dismal set of figures yesterday.

The best-selling project was a suburban development: Stadia in Yio Chu Kang Road, which sold more than 90 per cent of its 56 units within the month.

‘Latent demand remains strong, especially for the mass-market projects that are reasonably priced between $750 and $850 psf,’ said Mr Chua Yang Liang, the head of South-east Asia research at Jones Lang LaSalle.

On the other hand, only three units were launched in the prime core central region. Demand for homes in this high-end area and in the mid-tier city-fringes remained fragmented and weak, said Mr Chua.

Property consultants said they expect buying activity to remain slow in the coming months as the current gloomy sentiment persists.

But some, such as CBRE’s Mr Li, expect sales to start improving next month as developers begin stepping up launches.

Mr Ku Swee Yong, Savills Singapore’s director of business development and marketing, said buyers are starting to return to the market.

‘I dare say last month’s sales numbers will be the lowest we will see this year,’ he said.

‘Showflat crowds are still pretty good, and from now on, we should see launches picking up.’

Having some high-profile launches would give the market a boost, said Mr Nicholas Mak, the director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.

‘Essentially, the lukewarm sentiment can be explained primarily by the lack of launches of major developments that might cause excitement.’

Source: Straits Times

arthur

May 16th, 2008, 02:45 AM

CDL chief Kwek Leng Beng awaiting right time to buy

By Joyce Teo

PROPERTY tycoon Kwek Leng Beng has warned that most property investors follow the herd instinct and wait too long in a cautious market - then make a wrong move.

The executive chairman of City Developments (CDL) said he remains upbeat about prospects for the real estate scene in Singapore, despite recent weak sales volumes.

Mr Kwek, who was a panellist at the Financial Times Asia Property Summit held at his St Regis Hotel yesterday, said the property market is just consolidating.

The mood in the Singapore property market is cautious in the wake of the United States sub-prime crisis, with many buyers and sellers preferring to remain on the sidelines.

He said he was waiting for the opportunity to ‘go in and buy at the right time, be a bottom fisher’.

But most people will do the opposite, he said. ‘You notice (people) will keep on waiting… until it’s too late,’ he said.

‘It’s the herd instinct… the majority will be wrong.’ A shrewd investor will act on his own, he said.

If the casino-led boom in Macau’s luxury homes market is anything to go by, Singapore will do even better as it will have two casinos and other major events, he said.

‘We are victims of our own success,’ Mr Kwek.

‘In the old days, we had only regional investors from Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan… But today, we have big investors like Morgan Stanley, hedge funds.’

Mr Christopher Fossick, Jones Lang LaSalle’s managing director for South-east Asia, who was on the same panel, said there is now a higher proportion of investors than before, compared with occupiers.

Investors tend to be more sensitive to market sentiment, he said.

CDL, which has held back the launch of four residential projects because of poor sentiment, said in its recent earnings announcement that it plans to release them once sentiment improves and when pent-up demand can be realised.

‘In the first place, we were sick,’ said Mr Kwek of the property market before its recent boom. ‘But today, we have shifted to another platform. Instead of relying on technology, we are relying on our status as a global city.’

He also told reporters yesterday that hotel rates will continue to rise this year because of short supply.

The office market will also do well, though rent increases have moderated. As for the much talked-about office oversupply situation come 2010 or 2011, Mr Kwek thinks supply will not pose a problem then because the current construction boom will check that.

Source: Straits Times

arthur

May 16th, 2008, 02:46 AM

Dive in property launches

Developers have lowered asking price to bring in buyers

Friday • May 16, 2008

Esther Fung

esther@mediacorp. com.sg

Singapore’s much-anticipated property market slowdown is here.

April saw a 58-per-cent dive in new property launches by developers as buyer sentiments soured.

According to data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday, developers put 271 new private homes on sale last month, down from 642 in March.

Sales dropped by another 13 per cent with just 279 homes changing hands across Singapore, down from 322 in March. This is a sharp contrast to the 1,885 units launched and 1,731 sold at the peak of the housing boom last August.

“There is still a bit of a stand-off between developers and buyers,” said DTZ Debenham Tie Leung’s senior research director Chua Chor Hoon.

“Buyers are still taking a wait-and-see approach as they are not sure how things are going to unfold. It doesn’t make sense for them take the plunge and buy unless they have a strong reason to.”

To lure buyers, some developers have lowered the asking price.

According to Mr Nicholas Mak, a director at Knight Frank, the median prices of new sales dipped 8.9 per cent to $943 per sq ft (psf) last month.

The URA does not release monthly changes in price statistics. Its last set of figures shows private home prices rose 3.7 per cent in the three months to end-March, albeit at a slower pace.

Mr Colin Tan, head of consultancy and research at Chesterton International, said: “The evidence is mounting that the market may reached a declining stage.”

The asking price has been dropped in some new developments such as Far East Organisation’ s The Lakeshore in Jurong West and World-Class Capital’s Blu Coral in Telok Kurau, which has resulted in higher sales.

Buyers snapped up 18 units in Blu Coral — up from nine in February — after its median price fell to $657 psf last month.

“The question is, can they sustain sales at this price level or do they have to continue to lower it further,” said Chesterton’s Mr Tan.

City Developments has held back its property launches so far this year, but may launch this year’s first new development in the second quarter or third quarter if market conditions permit, its executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng told Dow Jones Newswires.

GIC Real Estate president, Dr Seek Ngee Huat, yesterday warned that Wall Street’s credit crisis may flow into Asia’s “main street”.

“The contagion of the sub-prime crisis can potentially accelerate the downward spin of the cycle,” Dr Seek was quoted as saying by Bloomberg.

“Its ripple effects are certainly being felt here in Asia. While Wall Street is picking up the pieces, the problems on Main Street are just beginning.”

Source: Today Newspaper

arthur

May 16th, 2008, 02:49 AM

Property seems paler, but it’s anyone’s call

Volumes shrink, prices weaken but some segments are holding firm

By ARTHUR SIM

(SINGAPORE) Based on the latest monthly developer sales data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), property prices could be on the downward trend.

Developer sales fell, with April seeing only 274 transactions. This is about 9 per cent lower than the 301 units sold in March, though still higher than the 174 units sold in February.

And while it is difficult to accurately pinpoint price movements with such low volume, an analysis by Knight Frank of overall median prices achieved nevertheless registered an 8.9 per cent drop in April, falling to $943 psf compared to $1,035 psf in March.

The peak median price of over $1,400 psf was reached in August 2007.

Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak also explained that the analysis was a ‘median of median prices’, and so may not be a precise reflection of price movements.

Mr Mak also said that applying a different mode of analysis to the same data - the formula used to calculate URA’s quarterly property price index for instance - could even show that prices have increased slightly.

Still, a comparison of monthly median prices of recently launched developments does suggest that prices could be falling.

The 79-unit Blu Coral was launched in February with nine units sold at a median price of $872 psf. In March, 28 units were sold at a median price of $802 psf, while in April, 18 units were sold at a median price of $657.

Similarly, 53 units of the 106-unit, The Verve, were launched in March with 36 units sold at a median price of $1,187 psf. In April, 8 units were sold at a median price of $1,055 psf.

And nine units of the 625-unit, The Quartz, were sold in March at a median price of $742 psf, followed by 14 units sold in April at a median price of $721 psf.

Interestingly, one unit of Waterfront Waves was sold at $909 psf in April, higher than the median price of $806 in March when 14 units were sold.

Perhaps another indication of the weakening market is that 43 units of 659-unit The Parc Condominium, previously reported as being fully sold, have re-emerged on the market. According to the monthly data, the returned units first appeared in February.

A source that did not want to be named also said that these units were returned by buyers who chose not to exercise their options, forfeiting a quarter of the 5 per cent downpayment in the process.

Jones Lang LaSalle head of research (South-East Asia) Chua Yang Liang has also analysed median prices as a measure of volatility and suggests that this has increased in the Outside Central Region (OCR).

Dr Chua explained that volatility, as a measure of how wide market prices are per unit dollar of the median price achieved could also reflect, ‘the market’s speculative level’. As such, he said: ‘It would appear that upgraders may be returning, with entry level projects that are moderately priced between $750 to $850 psf as the preferred choice.’

Supporting this were the healthy sales of the 56-unit Stadia at Yio Chu Kang, which saw 52 units sold. Two units were sold for under $750 psf while the remaining 50 were sold at between $750 and $1,000 psf.

In the OCR, Dr Chua said based on the analysis, median prices continued to soften by 4.2 per cent. But he also added that the analysis was just an ‘indication of the market’s mood’, and does not account for product differentiation or physical attributes of each development.

While the volume of sales was low in the Central Core Region with just 19 non-landed homes transacted, Dr Chua believes that the low volatility in median prices there suggests that market activity and future prices in the high end market are likely to remain stable.

Also holding this view is CB Richard Ellis Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho who noted that two units in Scotts Square were sold at around $4,300 psf, a unit at Orchard Scotts was sold at $2,520 psf and two units at Skypark were sold at around $2,300 psf.

‘Although high-value transactions were limited, the individual transactions seemed to indicate that prices in the high-end market were still holding firm,’ he added.

The analysis of price movements will however, remain an academic one, and as such will remain open to debate.

Colliers International director (research and advisory) Tay Huey Ying said there were too few transactions at the higher end of the market to comment fairly on the sector.

And even for the OCR, she noted that the median transacted price for mass-market units averaged $792 psf in April, about 8 per cent higher than the average median price of $729 in August 2007 when the highest sale volume for the sector was registered.

Source: Business Times

arthur

May 16th, 2008, 02:54 AM

bigbird72

May 16th, 2008, 06:15 AM

Hi Veru,

Which city in Aust is baddddd...? Stalemate like SG? or prices have moved down??

thanks.

BTW, I am in Grand Canyon, AZ now.

Hi King Arthur !!
I had a 1st hand view of the AUS & NZ real estate markets -- down down down :ohno:
Am off to California today -- 3 cities --San Diego, San Francisco & Los Angeles -- will report 1st hand on the California real estate market when I get there.
Finally I will report from the UK at months end before heading back for a quick check of the Sg market 1st week of June.

I really do believe the best way to gauge the news/views is to visit 1st hand & talk to my ultra-high-networth investor friends in Silicon Valley who have the funds to invest & also get the best reports/advise from top advisors

bigbird72

May 16th, 2008, 06:22 AM

"Perhaps another indication of the weakening market is that 43 units of 659-unit The Parc Condominium, previously reported as being fully sold, have re-emerged on the market. According to the monthly data, the returned units first appeared in February.""

Ya. after I wrote to URA abt the Parc data error. URA just rectified the data without replying me. #1 in covering own ass.

Veru

May 16th, 2008, 06:32 AM

Hi Veru,

Which city in Aust is baddddd...? Stalemate like SG? or prices have moved down??

thanks.

BTW, I am in Grand Canyon, AZ now.

Hi my friend BB72 in the Grand Canyon -- awesome views :)but BAD food :ohno:---try Sedona, AZ if you have the time --1 of the 10 most romantic places on planet earth & a spa town with great dining just a couple of hours away from you. Both Sydney & Brisbane real estate markets, where I was visiting with friends in the timber business (ie housing materials suppliers), are not looking so hot. Auckand newspapers report realtors are getting killed ... just got into LA today dude :banana:---my old home town during the fabulous 70s & 80s ....

Baby

May 16th, 2008, 02:40 PM

New launches prices not coming down, but giving freebies like absorbing stamp duty and interest.
Yesterday was 8 Rodyk and now the Waterfront.
Not much saving on interest anyway since progressive payment which means loan disbursement by phases (20%, 10%, 10%, 5%, 5%, 5%, 5%, till TOP).

DRSG

May 16th, 2008, 03:13 PM

Passed by Silversea.Models in show room put up today.

Baby

May 16th, 2008, 05:02 PM

Passed by Silversea.Models in show room put up today.

Likely to have freebies ? Absorbing Stamp duty and interest ? FEO will probably have F&B vouchers.

Veru

May 16th, 2008, 08:31 PM

Likely to have freebies ? Absorbing Stamp duty and interest ? FEO will probably have F&B vouchers.

BabyBaby -- this is just not fair---you rush to FEO for free F&B vouchers ?? And I invite you to join shctaw & me as my guest for Moet & dinner at my hotel with nothing to buy/sell (just to gossip) and you were pre-occupied --- why why baby :ohno: Next time I'll offer free F&B vouchers too if that will convince you to join us!!

Baby

May 17th, 2008, 02:13 AM

BabyBaby -- this is just not fair---you rush to FEO for free F&B vouchers ?? And I invite you to join shctaw & me as my guest for Moet & dinner at my hotel with nothing to buy/sell (just to gossip) and you were pre-occupied --- why why baby :ohno: Next time I'll offer free F&B vouchers too if that will convince you to join us!!

Poor baby has to work like buffallo day and night for 2 sets of meal daily, in contrast to the rich lord Veru enjoying luxury life around the world :lol:

If Lord Veru and shctaw open a kopi shop at Sail facing the Marina bay, baby can work for you and we can have :cheers: anytime :) .....

shctaw

May 17th, 2008, 02:31 AM

Poor baby has to work like buffallo day and night for 2 sets of meal daily, in contrast to the rich lord Veru enjoying luxury life around the world :lol:

If Lord Veru and shctaw open a kopi shop at Sail facing the Marina bay, baby can work for you and we can have :cheers: anytime :) .....

Uncle Kopi can open KOPI shop. I love beer so maybe MOET BEER BAR & BRISTRO for me.:lol:

Just left Penang empty handed. Now waiting for The Sail to TOP.:)

Veru

May 17th, 2008, 02:40 AM

Uncle Kopi can open KOPI shop. I love beer so maybe MOET BEER BAR & BRISTRO for me.:lol:

Just left Penang empty handed. Now waiting for The Sail to TOP.:)

Great idea guys --shctaw & me start a beer & champagne bar (we love the 2 products so much that we will drink up all the profits) & Uncle Kopi & Baby can start a Kopi bar together :lol:
btw young baby -- at your age I too was young & hungry but now just old & thirsty :cheers:

MacauVillager28

May 17th, 2008, 04:15 AM

Great idea guys --shctaw & me start a beer & champagne bar (we love the 2 products so much that we will drink up all the profits) & Uncle Kopi & Baby can start a Kopi bar together :lol:
btw young baby -- at your age I too was young & hungry but now just old & thirsty :cheers:

Capital idea !!!
Mine's a Black Velvet :)

Who's buying ??? When ? Euro now down a bit from 1.6 :cheers:

LittlePig

May 17th, 2008, 05:28 AM

Great idea guys --shctaw & me start a beer & champagne bar (we love the 2 products so much that we will drink up all the profits) & Uncle Kopi & Baby can start a Kopi bar together :lol:
btw young baby -- at your age I too was young & hungry but now just old & thirsty :cheers:

Oh why have the luminaries forsaken the little pig…?

shctaw

May 17th, 2008, 05:37 AM

Oh why have the luminaries forsaken the little pig…?

PorkChop & Beacon Restaurant OK?:)

DRSG

May 17th, 2008, 06:07 AM

PorkChop & Beacon Restaurant OK?:)

Cannot be successful 'cos not halal.Dont forget the local muslims and overseas Arab shiekhs dont eat pork.

Veru

May 17th, 2008, 08:08 AM

Capital idea !!!
Mine's a Black Velvet :)

Who's buying ??? When ? Euro now down a bit from 1.6 :cheers:

I am buying (drinks for ALL) oh Lord of Macau
btw I hope you saw my posts (regarding my next Sail purchase 100% self-financed funds) of USD to EUR at 1.22 or so & then waiting patiently for long long months & then a rapid exit at peak 1.60 back to USD a few weeks ago.
Now watching keenly with a straddle at 1.45 as well as 1.625 :ohno:

PreciseDrive

May 18th, 2008, 10:25 AM

Worst may be over for U.S., some economists say
Agence France-Presse
Washington, D.C., U.S.
Saturday, 17 May 2008, U.S. EDT

A growing number of analysts are expressing confidence that the worst may be over for the US economy, even if it struggles for some time due to weak housing, tight credit and high energy costs.

The latest data suggests the world's biggest economy may have averted a calamitous downturn, and could even escape recession, by the most common definition.

'The US economy continues to labor under the averse effects of three powerful shocks: the housing slump, the credit crunch, and the spike in energy prices,' says Mr Josh Feinman, chief economist of Deutsche Bank's DB Advisors.

'Remarkably, the economy has been able (barely) to keep its head above water despite all the negative shocks, a testament to its underlying resiliency, an aggressive policy response, and the relative strength of global growth.'

Mr Feinman predicts the US economy, which saw sluggish growth at a 0.6% pace in the past two quarters, will see a pickup to a 1.0% pace in the Q2 and 2.0% in the Q3.

He sees a softening to 1.5% expansion in the Q4 and then a return to 2.0% growth in the Q1 of 2009.

Some of the recent economic reports have defied forecasts of a sharp decline in US growth. Retail sales fell 0.2% in April but, excluding vehicle sales, were up 0.5%, suggesting resilience in consumer spending, the backbone of US economic activity.

'We think the economy is beginning to recover after a sharp two-quarter slowdown,' said Bear Stearns economist David Malpass.

'We still don't expect a recession. We think consumer resilience, as shown in April's non-auto consumption and sales data, is likely, not the deeper slump assumed in recession forecasts.'

Spending should get a further lift as the government sends out tax rebates of about US$107 billion (S$146 billion) in the coming weeks as part of a US$168-billion economic stimulus package.

'The impact of fiscal stimulus is probably the most important issue in the US economic outlook during the summer months,' said Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Tilton.

'A significant rebound in confidence and spending could fan hopes of a quicker recovery, while a failure of the economy to respond to the stimulus would be a significant disappointment to policymakers and the markets.'

New home construction starts rose 8.2% in April to an annual rate of 1.032 million unit. Even though the gains were in the multifamily segment and single-family homes slumped, analysts said it was good news.

'While we may not yet have absolutely hit bottom, it is beginning to look as if the end may be near,' said Mr Joel Naroff at Naroff Economic Advisors.

The labour market has also held up better than expected, and increased exports helped by a weak dollar have underpinned growth.

The broad US stock market has rebounded some 10% since mid-March, when the Federal Reserve helped support a rescue of investment giant Bear Stearns, which was widely seen as a turning point for the credit crisis and market confidence.

Analysts credit the aggressive cuts in interest rates by the Fed along with efforts to boost liquidity to the troubled finance sector, as well as the government's stimulus package.

Mr Nigel Gault, economist at Global Insight, said the US economy has shown resilience but that it 'is still too early to turn our thoughts away from recession and towards recovery.' Global Insight is predicting a contraction of 0.9 per cent in the second quarter. Largely due to the impact of tax rebates, it sees 2.3 per cent growth in the third quarter and overall yearly growth at a tepid 1.2 per cent.

'The worst of the financial turmoil may be behind us, but the impacts on the economy will linger,' Mr Gault said.

Mr Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust, cautions against reading too much into recent data.

'There seems to be sentiment developing that the US has weathered the worst of the current cyclical economic storm and blue skies are ahead. We disagree,' he said.

'Any blue skies you see are likely to be short-lived. The economy is in the relative calm of the eye of the business-cycle hurricane. The mortgage credit problems are not over. And credit problems in other sectors are just beginning as the housing recession spreads to the rest of the economy.'

PreciseDrive

May 19th, 2008, 09:15 AM

Credit Crisis Ending Soon and US Property To Rebound This Year: Deutsche Bank Chief
Agence France-Presse
Zurich, Switzerland
Sunday, 18 May 2008, CEST

http://aftermathnews.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/josef-ackermann-chairman-of-deutsche-bank.jpg

The end of the global credit crisis is getting closer and the United States real estate market should recover in the second half of the year, Deutsche Bank chief executive (CEO) Josef Ackermann said in a newspaper interview.

'I think that we are getting closer to the end of the financial crisis,' he told the Swiss Sunday newspaper SonntagsBlick. 'It is not fully over yet, but the signs from the US are encouraging.'

He said the pragmatic approach being taken in the US to resolve the crisis should start to pay off soon.

'We should feel the effects in the second half of the year already and should see a strong recovery of the US real estate market,' he told the paper.

His comments add to growing optimism among analysts who say the worst might be over for the US economy, even if it still struggles for some time because of weak housing, tight credit and high energy costs.

The latest data suggests the world's largest economy might have averted a calamitous downturn and could even escape a recession, by the most common definition, Agence France-Presse reported.

'Remarkably, the economy has been able (barely) to keep its head above water despite all the negative shocks - a testament to its underlying resiliency, an aggressive policy response and the relative strength of global growth,' said Mr Josh Feinman, the chief economist with Deutsche Bank's DB Advisors.

He predicts the US economy, which saw sluggish growth at a 0.6% in Q4 and Q1, will grow 1% for Q2 and 2% for Q3.

But Mr Paul Kasriel, the director of economic research at Northern Trust, cautions against reading too much into recent data.

'Any blue skies you see are likely to be short-lived. The economy is in the relative calm of the eye of the business-cycle hurricane. The mortgage credit problems are not over. And credit problems in other sectors are just beginning as the housing recession spreads to the rest of the economy.'

PreciseDrive

May 19th, 2008, 09:33 AM

Fears of US recession overblown: analyst
Oh Boon Ping
The Business Times
Monday, 19 May 2008

The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points, before pausing to monitor the key economic data in US, according to the National Australia Bank.

However, its group chief economist Alan Oster felt that fears of a major US recession is overblown at present and forecast a US GDP growth of 1.2% this year and 1.7% next year.

Since last September, the Fed has slashed its key interest rate by 3.25 percentage points to 2%.

Mr Oster was speaking to BT on the sidelines of a lunch forum organised by the CPA Australia.

On the issue of liquidity trap, Mr Oster said that: ‘Where the Fed is at right now, either they do one more or sit around for a while to see what the data says. We actually think they are very close to the bottom.’

In his presentation, Mr Oster also said that a slowdown in US consumption is still to come in 2008, while recovery is expected in 2009.

These forecasts are based on assumptions such as flat equity markets, 1.5% growth in real disposable income, and that oil prices peak at about US$120 before falling to US$90 by later this year.

In Asia, growth is expected to slow only moderately as there are ‘enough dynamics’ in emerging economies of China and India.

In China, he sees slower growth in exports of around 20%, while ‘retail also a touch lower - mainly in real terms given accelerating inflation’.

Overall, Chinese economic growth is expected to slow moderately to 9.5% this year and about 8.9% in 2009.

This year, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) could grow by 7.5%, but drop to 6.4% next year.

He remains optimistic about the economic prospects in Singapore, as the city state largely ‘reflects what is happening in Asia’.

This year’s GDP growth in Singapore is forecast at 5.2%, while next year’s could hit 5.8%.

Globally, GDP growth is estimated at 3.4% and 3.2% next year.

On the run-up in commodity prices, Mr Oster said that commodities are ‘close to the top ... And so our forecast is some of them are clearly going to go down, particularly the agricultural side. So the wheat and the rice prices are expected to come down.’

‘I am not sure if iron or coal is going to come down, but if China slows, they will.’

The bank sees commodity prices falling 20% from current levels in two to three years’ time.

Separately, Morgan Stanley said in a note yesterday that trade trends in Singapore are likely to continue to soften, while cyclical segments will likely face further pressures.

This came after Singapore economy posted higher exports and non-oil domestic exports last month.

arthur

May 20th, 2008, 04:30 AM

World property markets frozen: Mack

Bid-ask price gaps are too wide, many are sitting on the sidelines

(NEW YORK) Global real estate markets are frozen because buyers and sellers remain far apart on price and aren’t ready to concede values won’t return to levels achieved in 2007, Apollo Real Estate Advisors LP senior partner William Mack said.

‘The markets are kind of stuck,’ said Mr Mack, who has helped raise almost US$6 billion for new real estate investments. ‘The bid-ask spread is too wide. A lot of money and a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines trying to establish where the next move is.’

Mortgage-related losses have forced financial institutions to write down more than US$300 billion in assets and constrained lending for property acquisitions. In New York City, Manhattan office building sales fell in the first quarter to the lowest since 2005, according to data from Real Capital Analytics.

Recent signs of recovery in shares of real estate investment trusts are ‘a bounce off the bottom’, said Mr Mack, 68, in an interview last week. The Bloomberg Reit Index has risen 9.8 per cent this year, after falling 22 per cent in 2007, the steepest dive in the 14-year history of the measure.

‘The sales market is very, very slow,’ said Mr Mack. ‘The leasing market has slowed down because there have been a lot of layoffs, and people are not as confident they need extra space and that’s throughout the world.’

Confidence won’t return to the market until ‘everybody believes that the blood-letting and the writing down of assets is over, or near-over’, said Mr Mack. ‘We need a realisation that terms and conditions that existed a year ago are not going to come back in the near future.’

Property values have fallen and lenders are willing to lend only about 65 per cent of value, compared with 90 per cent in the past. ‘Unless you have a good deal of equity, you’re going to be out of the game,’ Mr Mack said. ‘That is the penalty for rolling the dice.’ Apollo is waiting for the right moment to start making acquisitions and Mr Mack said he thinks the East and West coast property markets will offer some of the best opportunities.

The gap between sellers and buyers remains ‘very large’, said Mr Mack, who founded Apollo’s real estate unit in 1993 as property markets were recovering from a recession.

The group’s investments have included New York’s Time Warner Center, the St Katherine Dock office/retail development in London, and the Pascal Tower in Paris.

Apollo Real Estate was founded in 1993 by Mr Mack and Apollo Management LP, a private equity firm. — Bloomberg

bigbird72

May 20th, 2008, 07:27 AM

"Confidence won’t return to the market until ‘everybody believes that the blood-letting and the writing down of assets is over, or near-over’, said Mr Mack. ‘We need a realisation that terms and conditions that existed a year ago are not going to come back in the near future.’"

Thats what I have been saying. Most bullish conditions in 2007 are no longer there and not coming back soon. Only thing people are hanging onto is IR.

MacauVillager28

May 20th, 2008, 05:47 PM

arthur

May 21st, 2008, 03:57 AM

Banks see plunge in home prices in next two years

New homes, rising vacancy rates, unsold condos and fewer rental deals cited as reasons

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter

THE slowdown in the Singapore housing market has prompted two banks to predict a dramatic plunge in home values in the next two years.

In two starkly bearish reports, Barclays Capital and Credit Suisse have forecast drops of up to 40 per cent in home rents and prices, as demand and supply dynamics move in favour of buyers.

The reports, issued in the last two weeks, pointed to the malign cocktail of a flood of new homes coming on the market, climbing vacancy rates, a rising number of unsold condominiums and fewer rental transactions.

They also raised concerns about the possible dumping of units by speculators. Barclays said that should this happen, private home prices could slide 28 per cent to 30 per cent by 2010.

Credit Suisse predicted a possible 40 per cent drop in rents and prices. Its analysis showed that sub-sale prices recently started to dip at several developments.

Both banks also noted that developers were now more generous with price cuts, stamp duty rebates and agent commissions in an effort to move units. They warned that smaller developers were likely to ‘break’ first.

‘Just six months ago, City Developments and a few others gave zero commissions to agents,’ Credit Suisse said. By March, most were giving 1 per cent to 5 per cent, an increase of three to 10 times in just six months.

‘When Singaporean developers start to reach out to agents with higher commissions, you know they are feeling the pain,’ it said.

The pain is coming from slower growth in home rents and prices, as the effects of the United States sub-prime mortgage crisis takes its toll on market sentiment in Singapore.

Private home prices rose a smaller-than-forecast 3.7 per cent in the first quarter. Even then, Barclays analysts said this could have been boosted by a handful of high-priced transactions and ‘may not reflect the depth of pessimism in the market’.

Sales and launches of new homes also fell sharply last month, extending the slump.

Mr Colin Tan, the head of research and consultancy at Chesterton International, agreed with the Barclays report about a correction in prices.

As more new homes are completed over the next few years, he said, rents will feel the pressure and prices will start to fall.

Not all property analysts, however, have such a gloomy take on the housing sector.

Kim Eng analyst Wilson Liew believes the oversupply situation may be overstated. While there are 32,000 units being built and 42,000 more in the pipeline, current market sentiment could help slow the rate at which the planned units come onstream.

‘It is likely that most of these units would be deferred indefinitely until sentiment returns or when construction resources ease,’ he said.

Developers could also keep lands in their landbank rather than develop them if there is no demand, suggested Macquarie Securities’ head of Asean research, Mr Soong Tuck Yin.

Both he and Mr Liew believe the upcoming integrated resorts will give Singapore a boost and, while there may be a temporary weakness, home prices are unlikely to collapse.

Mr Soong also said developers had stronger balance sheets now than in previous market troughs, and the current low interest rates and high inflation could lead people to buy properties as a hedge against inflation.

The Credit Suisse report, however, said negative real interest rates - often touted as a driver for property purchases - had not historically helped home sales. It also said that even with construction delays, actual completions had usually come in higher than forecast.

http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/image/20080521/ST8854010885401001_01_0001.jpg

stingraytan

May 21st, 2008, 04:01 AM

time to get ready more cash to buy more!!

DRSG

May 21st, 2008, 04:15 AM

I read the report by Barclays and CS with caution.I rather trust our local gurus and moguls.

shctaw

May 21st, 2008, 04:16 AM

DRSG

May 21st, 2008, 04:40 AM

After MP 2008 is revealed I believe that there is a group of buyers and genuine home stayers who are patiently waiting by the sidelines ready to buy into estates that will not be enbloced due to no increase in plt ratio changes .So some estates that is not feasible or not attractive to developers may find a niche market for enbloc phobic buyers.

bigbird72

May 21st, 2008, 05:09 AM

bb72:
Nice to see you back....

I think Mack basically still referring to the twin financial centres of US and UK..
Since you've been gone.. US still not in recession, Germany & Japan posted better than expected GDP figures...HK also .. SG booming 1Q GDP.

At least in HK, property seems to be still going strong again after 2 mth consolidation with launch of 2 projects (in Sha Tin, and supposedly in Ho Man Tin), at prices of approx SGD2k, 3k respectively, plus penthouses going at 5k..
And I think in SG, transactions seem to be rising again..

... Anyway, nice to have your views again !!

still not back yet. back at relatives place in Monterey,CA.
going to yellowstone next few days.

weather here very cold or very hot. i think summer will have heat wave. looks like oil prices going to shoot up further. either from elec demand or hurricanes. my view only. not fro weather channel...hahaha...

still stick to view that momentum will falters in 2h08 and further.....coincide wth TOPs..rentals should soften.

bigbird72

May 21st, 2008, 05:19 AM

arthur

May 21st, 2008, 05:20 AM

Baby

May 21st, 2008, 07:46 AM

nothing to shake those assets out of people's hands.

yet???

STI still hovering above 31xx-32xx. That's why property prices still stay firm.

This was unlike in 2001-2003 where STI dropped so much.

If STI continue it's up trend toward 3700+ and above by next 1-2 quarter, the property prices will definitely start moving up.

DRSG

May 21st, 2008, 08:03 AM

All these few weeks of bearish housing reports and research studies by UBS,CS etc etc that is published in the papers I treat as thrash for my maid to wrap rubbish and throw into the dustbins.

bigbird72

May 21st, 2008, 09:37 AM

STI still hovering above 31xx-32xx. That's why property prices still stay firm.

This was unlike in 2001-2003 where STI dropped so much.

If STI continue it's up trend toward 3700+ and above by next 1-2 quarter, the property prices will definitely start moving up.

dunno leh...earning growth slowing. so lower PE multiples. So stock prices may not chiong....at best flattish...

IMC

May 21st, 2008, 10:20 AM

As if it is real. I have been trying to buy a property in district 1 & 9 but the price still the same if not higher.

Tell the person who write the article to purchase a property for me.

The Sail @ Marina Bay, lowest done deal is $1500 psf, I can pay 10% lower at $1350 psf for any unit, any floor, any facing. I doubt he can find a unit at that price.

District 9 is even worst, I have been hunting for Vision Crest for 5 months still cannot find a unit slightly cheaper.

Never trust the news too much, go out and do some hunting and you know what is happening.

No deal does not mean no one is buying, it also mean no one is selling too.

I wonder the property reporter Fiona Chan own any property?

i think the analyst is attention seeking. Price may drop 10-15% by some small volume but can shoot up drastically once sentiments consolidate. to suggest 40% drop in price and rental, the analyst is really too irresponsible. :bash: the recent low happened during the SARS period !

to me, spore property players are more to the immature side. if u compare with hk, hk market is either up or consolidate. down is only during big crisis. for spore, once the market doesnt run, people talk abt big big fall back to 10 years ago price. wonder where do the wealth and progress go to after all these years.

from my own reading, many people are waiting at the side waiting to enter like those young professionals who are priced out in the recent run. we have good growth rate (not recession), still ok stock market and the big f1, ir and youth olympic factors. if like that, spore property market still crash big time, we will forever have no reasons to appreciate. i will only start to panick when there are high job loss in spore.

my 2 cents.