View Full Version : Tampa Bay area soon to be one of the smallest metros in population because of locals


jvance75
June 26th, 2007, 11:28 PM
While this area has been focused on our growth and change, other regions have also put politics aside for the better of one areas status in business, commercial, and marketing by staying within the 20 largest regions in the United States. While Tampa has been able to maintain this for a few decades without adding any counties to its MSA - it has been the 3rd largest MSA in the southeast and 2nd largest in the state since 2000, and before that it was the largest MSA in the state. Now as the Census has been offering consolidations of certain metropolitan statistical areas in this state for a while, our main competitors at first bickered and then finally came to the consensus that it would help their area instead of hurt it. Here are three examples, with the first two being main competitors to this area because these numbers matter for jobs, companies that look at the area, and staying in the top 20 and really trying for the top 15th market at least....and yes, most companies will just look at government census MSA/CSA data first and only before deciding to look more into an area...I am sure this is the same for International developers.


Miami MSA
The Miami MSA was stuck at 2.3 million people and was the largest MSA in the state for a while when the Tampa MSA went past it in 2000. The census and the governments of Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach tried to work out a proposal and it stalled only because of the fact West Palm Beach would not be listed on the MSA, they compromised and the Miami area went from 2.3 million to over 5.3 million and West Palm Beach was able to get on the MSA while only being removed in 2003 and replaced with this official name until 2010, when most MSAs/CSAs will only include the core city name....

Miami- Fort Lauderdale- Pompano Beach MSA - 5,463,857 making it the 7th largest area in the US

Orlando CSA
The Orlando MSA had its growth spurt in the 90s and this picked up like the rest of the state during the real estate boom in mid-2000s reaching its peak when Orange and Hillsborough counties were the only ones in the state to grow over 35,000 people in one year. The MSA has still always been a distant 3rd and if up until recent boundaries were kept it would not surpass or equal the size of the Tampa MSA for at least a few decades. The area finally came together in 2003 and decided to go ahead with a merge. A popular destination city that was in the MSA name also allowed this to happen because they also realized larger numbers from population to workforce(larger number of college graduates too) at least got them in the door for consideration of higher end jobs even if they were to only be in the area instead of holding a name for a few more years and allowed the Census Bureau to consolidate what they wanted to first into a CSA(really no different than an MSA, except it lists the old MSAs under the current CSA and a few other factors). The area went from close to 1.9 million even still double listed today to the current one listed below just about in what seemed like a night making it the population that Tampa reached without changing boundaries in 2005.

Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach CSA - 2,635,000 - making it now the 21st largest census area in the US right behind Tampa(19th) now after lagging well behind. This added even Sumter county to the Orlando CSA and 2010 MSA.

Tampa MSA
Now onto the Tampa MSA. The area has not changed their four county metro in decades. The continuous(hence connecting) urban area continues to grow out/sprawl and now overflows literally into seven counties with many established "Tampa Bay Area" Neighborhoods at this point, but they are not counted as a part of the Tampa metro population in any easy to access public mediums from the government such as a Census MSA/CSA. Most other metros in the state and a great example of one metro keeping up with sprawl population is metro Atlanta, now at over 28 counties in its MSA and over 8,376 sq. miles compared to Tampa Bay at 2,554.5 sq. miles, Miami now at 6,137 sq. miles, and the Orlando CSA now at 5,745 sq. miles size. The MSAs in the census defined Tampa bay urban area includes the metro areas of Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater(2.8m), Sarasota-Bradenton(700k) and the Lakeland MSA(580k). Even after adding all the Tampa urban areas together the land area is still on the smaller size end and gives it one of the largest population numbers again. The last time Sarasota officials refused to merge on paper with the Tampa metro because the largest cities would still be the ones already listed in the name(Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater), until the new rules start, even though it likes to mention its already part of the Tampa Bay area and they even throw around the South Bay area. This area is already in the urban area, unofficial greater Tampa bay area, DMA TV Market, and also meets all Census requirements... both areas use each other to shop, work, enjoy the others entertainment, culture, and other social aspects in both areas. I have watched a lot of large companies base a move on the numbers that are given to them by a government agency or 3rd party company with the same census information.

Jacksonville MSA
This area was the smallest of MSAs over one million people in the state of Florida even behind the old West Palm Beach MSA. To boast a larger metro population over the city population and the fact they were rapidly becoming a true working city from companies moving in to the pro-football team they have already and are still in the process of adding metro counties in Georgia and at least one in Florida. The area went from just over 1 million to about 1.3 million people also just about over night from what they have consolidated with so far.

Even though this doesn't have to do with our skyline or much except for what is on paper, this area will be the smallest of the large metro areas in the state if we do nothing. If we could keep up with the rest of the state and get along at a local level this metro would be huge. Our urban area defined by the census puts our population now at over 4 million people and keeps the land size at a smaller size than the new metros listed above. This is the St. Petersburg vs. Tampa squabble on a much greater level, our constituents need to work together and at least agree on paper what the Census numbers have told us, that we are one continuos urban area that can provide a larger and better workforce or a population large enough to find workers in. This seems like a big deal that no one in this area even looks at....a larger population will always be thought of as having a better workforce pool.

Jasonhouse
June 27th, 2007, 02:24 AM
I'm missing the entire point of this thread.

HARTride 2012
June 27th, 2007, 03:51 AM
I'm missing the entire point of this thread.

Agreed. I'm totally clueless.

jvance75
June 27th, 2007, 08:22 AM
it is kind of a mess...what I am trying to say is that all of the other large MSAs(metros) in the state are trying to look better on paper by working with surrounding areas to merge and appear larger, hence giving them an automatic advantage with at least a larger profile to work with when it comes to showing an area off because of the population increase. Since 2000, Miami and now Orlando have consolidated with other areas considered to be separate until those areas finally agreed to become a part of their metro population...Jacksonville is now in the process of adding counties to their official MSA too from Georgia and Florida. Tampa* on the other hand has two other MSAs that are considered to be in the Tampa urban area yet they are counted separate to keep their names in its own MSA, and those being Sarasota-Bradenton and Lakeland. Sarasota has kept out because it wants to keep its own name in an MSA, and Polk county is being pulled by both Orlando and Tampa so they are trying to stay their own metro. I can go on why this is so important, but the main point is that Tampa seems to be the only large metro that hasn't added any counties to its Census metro(MSA) to appear larger...our census continuous urban area though includes the counties of citrus, hernando, hillsborough, manatee, polk, pinellas, and sarasota yet we only count four in our population and have one of the smallest land area size metros in the south and in this state. This means we can add all of our urban counties and still end up smaller than most others.

*tampa-counted as Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando

TampaTower
June 27th, 2007, 01:35 PM
It seems like the other metros in Florida are using smoke and mirrors when it comes to this pissing contest of metro population size. If you want to feel better look at media market rankings. Tampa bay is 12, Miami-Fort lauderdale is 17, Orlando is 20.

jvance75
June 27th, 2007, 03:01 PM
yes, one real ranking that actually determines how much a market is worth. I would have to say though the top 20 markets also designate a markets worth also...and if they counted everyone here without smoke and mirrors, 4 million would keep us there for decades to come and we wont have to cheat by pulling areas very far out, instead of the 2.7 million numbers from the 4 core counties....

The only problem is when people see Orlando is about the same size they also wont hear that it now includes areas from the Palm Coast near JAX/I-95 to Sumter and I-75....the metro of Miami is now over 100 miles long and much larger governments were able to hurdle over and merge. Instead of watching this happen, how could we pursuade local government it would be worth it next time they are asked. I know this will become more of an issue before the end of the decade as the next census will only include the largest core city...(i.e. Tampa MSA, Miami MSA, Orlando MSA)

FlaNatv
June 27th, 2007, 04:01 PM
I don't consider NorthEastern Polk County Tampa Bay. It's definatly connected as part of Orlando and growing rapidly as such. Orlando starts somewhere west of I-4 and US-27.

Could a county be split between two Metros?



Maybe this thread is partly about the perception of Tampa Bay on the National and International Stage?

FlaNatv
June 27th, 2007, 04:05 PM
Actually Lakeland seems to want clout on it's own. They probably don't want Polk to be part of either metro.

jvance75
June 27th, 2007, 06:53 PM
Yea, Polk is the only county that will not join an MSA anytime soon. They consider the county to be its own because it is in between two large metro areas, NE is Orlando suburbs...thats old news. Now why does Sarasota have such a problem with naming issues? it seems like this issue will stick and by next census we will be the 3rd largest MSA in the state now...why dont we just switch names with Jacksonville next...wait, they are actually doing the same thing as Miami and Orlando to stay competitive...nevermind.

randommichael
June 27th, 2007, 07:39 PM
Well, I see the benefit of having large numbers in an MSA, but I don't know how much it really means in reality. For example, the company my wife works for thought about bringing their HQ to the area. They did look at the MSA numbers, BUT the biggest thing they looked at was the cost of living and average salary of the area. I guess my point is this: How many people really judge an area by its MSA? If you mention the term MSA to most people, they will not have a clue as to what it means.

Jasonhouse
June 27th, 2007, 09:18 PM
^Most people aren't the ones deciding which regions get what govt. funding and where corporations are best served placing jobs and capital investment.

randommichael
June 27th, 2007, 09:34 PM
^ You are right.

jvance75
June 27th, 2007, 09:36 PM
people usually dont...statistics, information, and census data do.... I'm not really even sure if this would happen, the city screamed when they included Puerto Rico as a US MSA in 2000 and it knocked Tampa out of the top 20 for a very short time...the media and local government went crazy.

Maybe Citrus, Manatee, and Sarasota will join the MSA after also joining TBARTA....

Bori427
June 28th, 2007, 01:59 AM
^Was that San Juan?

jvance75
June 28th, 2007, 03:26 AM
it was one of the cities in that MSA