What do you think?

I think it might be Riga because both, Tallinn and Vilnius already have a highrise cluster :)

Heh. Lithuanians will vote for Lithuania, Latvians for Riga and so on...
P.S. I think that you should ad some skyline renders for people who are not familiar with this region.

I voted Riga. Why? Because Riga is the only one of them that can be considered a big city, IMO.

Not so easy to answer. Give me some time to think ;)

I voted Riga. Why? Because Riga is the only one of them that can be considered a big city, IMO.
The tendencys is not good for Riga, but in 10-15 years it will stay the largest city in the Baltics, ofcourse.

One more interesting fact (just for your interest, i don't want to tell anything else by this):
http://i135.photobucket.com/albums/q135/zagironas/bltpopu.jpg

but...

http://i135.photobucket.com/albums/q135/zagironas/bltbltpopu.jpg

http://www.miestai.net/forumas/images/smilies/naughty.gif

Source (http://www.answers.com/topic/baltic-states-1).

Calculating Riga metropolitan population just by inside the borders is not very wise - continuous built-up area extends now for many kilometres outside the formal city borders. And while the number of inhabitants inside Riga decreases, in suburban areas it increases fast.

Regarding highrises - I wouldn't guess. Riga is very conservative. Neighbours - not.

^^Not surprising numbers at all. It's known to everybody that Lithuania stayed untouched by Soviet immigrants.

But I'd like to know what those numbers represent. Are those populations by city proper, metropolitan area? Because Tallinn+suburbs is around 460-470 thousand people.

Hmm... :sly: Klaipeda or Riga!

Are those populations by city proper, metropolitan area?
City ;)

The system is the same for everyone. Vilnius or whatever also has it's own metro area, doesn't it? Simply take the numbers ;)

Probably Riga, or Tallinn if the grandiouse Paljassaare projects actually bare fruit.

It's really hard to make a decision while knowing just the number of the population in each of the cities. So i would like to ask that somebody from Tallinn and Riga would add some visualizations of their future skylines (i mean near future, not the year 3000).

I'll give something for Vilnius. I think this will allow to compare the perspectives. More or less but this will help, because now it's more like a guess.

So this is the future of Vilnius skyline:
http://www.development.lt/uploads/images/dir45/dir2/14_1.php

I won't vote until i have an ability to decide and i need to compare something for this. I don't want everything to get something like that:
Heh. Lithuanians will vote for Lithuania, Latvians for Riga and so on...

So are those projects proposed or already agreed?

Three years ago i would definitely say that Riga - but now, when I see how many projects are announced and how few are happening - really don't have clue.

There are some secret weapons for Riga to be played in order to become more important centre and some bad tendencies which turn it down (current overheating of economy, bad demography). Current 1,1 mio people in Riga metro will require... may be some 10 high-end highrises in central district and some 40 mid-quality highrises in other areas.

So are those projects proposed or already agreed?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v394/vytauc/uc.php.jpg

Green: already built.
Blue: UC
Orange: proposed (technical project ongoing)
Grey: visions, but within allowed hight.

Well then, yeah, Vilnius might have a hell of a skyline. The thing with Tallinn is that to build new highrises in the centre, you have to demolish a lot of houses. And it already seems to me that Tallinn will have many smaller skylines instead of one big.

Well then, yeah, Vilnius might have a hell of a skyline. The thing with Tallinn is that to build new highrises in the centre, you have to demolish a lot of houses. And it already seems to me that Tallinn will have many smaller skylines instead of one big.

yes but our one big central one will still be extremely impressive!

^^Hmm....real estate boom is over, prices are dropping, so let's see.

^^Hmm....real estate boom is over, prices are dropping, so let's see.

true... well see.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v394/vytauc/uc.php.jpg

Green: already built.
Blue: UC
Orange: proposed (technical project ongoing)
Grey: visions, but within allowed hight.

wow that looks very cool, go Vilnius:cheers: !

vytauc, you forgot Teo
http://foto.terpe.lt/inkelti/20070910/uc.JPG

http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/7550/2wy4.jpg

I think honestly that there will be no major difference between Tallinn, Vilnius and Riga in terms of "most stunning skyline". The direction taken is pretty much the same and if all goes smoothly in 15-20 years Baltic capitals from distance will look spot on:) :cheers:

As for the future skyline of the baltic... It's truly very difficult to forecast. But I don't think it is going to be Klaipeda or Tallinn because of the small population. Riga has a very good geographical position to become a centre of the baltics and a higher population, but Vilnius is doing very well and is the capital of the biggest country in the baltics. If the birth rate in all three baltic countries will be about the same (what I think is going to be) then the leader of the baltic capitals in terms of pupulation growth should become Vilnius. Which should be caused mainly by returning emigrants and inside migrantion. Of course the country imigration policy will also influence the population. But who is starting to imigrate first to our countries? They are belarusians, ukrainians and russians. Because of already a very big minority in Latvia and Estonia it would be very risky to allow these emigrants to these 2 baltic countries. Risky because it would be very difficult for them to integrate when there would not be necessity to learn language or to send their childreans to estonian/latvian schools. This problem is also a subject in Lithuania, but I don't think it is that big as in Latvia and Estonia. Of course population itself alone can not make a city a future skyline capital, but I think it will be a key role. So my forecast for the best future skyline is for either Vilnius or Riga.

As for the future skyline of the baltic... It's truly very difficult to forecast. But I don't think it is going to be Klaipeda or Tallinn because of the small population. Riga has a very good geographical position to become a centre of the baltics and a higher population, but Vilnius is doing very well and is the capital of the biggest country in the baltics. If the birth rate in all three baltic countries will be about the same (what I think is going to be) then the leader of the baltic capitals in terms of pupulation growth should become Vilnius. Which should be caused mainly by returning emigrants and inside migrantion. Of course the country imigration policy will also influence the population. But who is starting to imigrate first to our countries? They are belarusians, ukrainians and russians. Because of already a very big minority in Latvia and Estonia it would be very risky to allow these emigrants to these 2 baltic countries. Risky because it would be very difficult for them to integrate when there would not be necessity to learn language or to send their childreans to estonian/latvian schools. This problem is also a subject in Lithuania, but I don't think it is that big as in Latvia and Estonia. Of course population itself alone can not make a city a future skyline capital, but I think it will be a key role. So my forecast for the best future skyline is for either Vilnius or Riga.

skylines dont have alot to do with population unless the area is tiny or inaccessible, noone is going to build highrises (nice glassy ones) for immigrants! Its about business potential, location (your much more likely to get a highrise near water then inland), officespace etc.

Some visualizations from future Riga which I saw some 1,5 years ago in Riga Council entrance-hall.

1. This is more of "desirable" version, only some of them are real projects now. Between them isn't the highest building which you can see not far from Saules Akmens. But it was planned in that place could be 50-floor building.

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/1125/dscf0753so7.jpg

2. Maybe this is closer to reality version, although there you can't see Z-TOwers, which is already U/C now.

http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/3443/realiw5.jpg

I prefer to refrain from voting because it's very hard to forcast, what would be these future skylines. However one thing is clear - Riga and Klaipeda have greater potential because Vilnius and Tallin already have their clusters.

Klaipeda might have the highest buildings, but I am sure that architectonic quality will be higher in capitals. Highrises in Klaipeda seem to be spread around as well.

skylines dont have alot to do with population unless the area is tiny or inaccessible, noone is going to build highrises (nice glassy ones) for immigrants! Its about business potential, location (your much more likely to get a highrise near water then inland), officespace etc.

I agree that noone is going to build a highrises for imigrants, but imigrants will create a bigger business potential, which according to you is a main point. But it's not about imigrants, it's about population it self. I think it has to do a lot with a highrises, cause in Vilnius for example highrises are not being build because of tiny or inaccesible places, but because of the need for the office space for business. The bigger population- the more bussines- the bigger necessity for office space, it just not always skyscrapers are being build to satisfy office demand.

^^Yeah, and Berlin is full of highrises or what?

If Berlin does not have a skyline it doesn't mean they cant have it. It just their policy and decision to build a lowrise or highrise office buildings. But a small city could not have skyline, even if it they would want to, because there's no need for office space. Anyway, of course there's always an exception, but they are very rare and we should not forecast future baltic skyline capital taking those exceptions as a rule.

^^It's not about policy in Berlin. It's about the lack of need. Berlin has about 3,5 million people, but it still doesn't need highrises. Real estate prices in Berlin are about the same as in Tallinn. Size doesn't matter. Of course a very small city can't have a huge skyline, but size isn't as important as you think. Or if you think so, then Riga should have the biggest skyline and end of story?

So what you're saying is that Berlin does not have an office buildings? And if they have than I guess it means it is their policy to have them as a lowrise. I'm not saying that larger population is the only one factor, there are lots of other factors, but I think it is one of the main factors. As for the baltics, I think that lots of factors are about the same: we all regained independence, we all did not have an office space and this was a cause of office boom in baltics. Tallinn was the first with its skyline, then Vilnius and I think it should be about the time for Riga. Unless they will choose to build an lowrise office buildings. Cause situation is about the same in all our countries, and I don't think that Tallinn would have a great office demand and Riga would not.

Yeah, that's true, Riga is hungry for office space, but only in last years the satisfaction of this demand is really started. But it's not highrises in most cases because here is very strict policy (like in Scandinavian countrys) against high-rises close to historical centre, where investors wants to build them. Thereby tendency is to build large but 5-6 floor high office buildings.

riga has lots of bombholes from world war. if i have to choose one high-rise to kipsala or 5-6 six storey lowrises into those holes, i'll choose the last opportunity. urbanistic wholeness is a thing that integrates city. and riga has potential to become a real CITY!

Of course there is demand for office space in Tallinn, but most of the offices are built a bit away from the center now, which is quite obvius: In the centre there are problems with parking, traffic jams etc + there just isn't free space in the centre any more.

and riga has potential to become a real CITY!
And what it is at the moment? :dunno:

And what it is at the moment? :dunno:

right now riga is a big city which has potential to become a heart of baltics. there is a difference, think about it :)

Riga is not a big city IMHO - really. At least it is relative - in China Riga populationwise would be considered to be a provincial town. For Europe it is somewhere on the border between European level metropolis and something smaller.

I consider that GaWC ranking helps in definition of large/small cities - but their latest estimate was made in 2004, when Baltic cities were less important than now... if that increase of importance is noticeable by GaWC team.

Some interesting insights into Riga as larger centre:
http://www2.fmg.uva.nl/acre/case-studies/riga.html

May be Riga or any other Baltic city will never manage to get on this list:
http://www.mastercard.com/us/company/en/wcoc/pdf/index_2007_us.pdf

None of the Baltic cities is much visible on world scale. But Riga is slightly more visible than others now IMHO.

Hmmm.. It's hard to say - Riga is "big" or not. Point of reference usually is 1 million people - if city has such population, it is "big", if hasn't, it isn't. Then Riga isn't. But on the other hand it is actually bigger than some cities we consider as "big" - for example, Frankfurt am Main (only 659 928 in city limits), Sevilla (704 414), Copenhagen (503 699), Manchester (452 000) etc. Ok, I know these cities have much larger urban areas but anyway... Food for thought.

we can't compare china and baltics, whole baltic population will live in some shanghai's boroughs :D

Population, business... are important of course but when we talk about skylines IMHO the most important factor is city planning rules. That's why I'm voting for Klaipeda. This city will have the best skyline at least in Lithuania. Much bigger part of residential/office space in Klaipeda is being built in the form of high-rises than in any other Baltic city. While for example Vilnius plans more and more lowrise quartals/buildings. Buildings in "NCC" of Vilnius are going to be too short and massive to form impressive skyline. I'm not so sure about Riga and Tallinn though but still I think that Klaipeda might lead in this sphere. Anyway, I must admit that it's very hard to guess how everything will look like in the future in this sphere. I think that it's much easier to guess which city will have the biggest population growth in comming 10 years (Vilnius) (and in some more years maybe it has chances to become the biggest in the Baltics), which city will be the most important economically in comming 10 years (Riga) and similar things. :)

right now riga is a big city which has potential to become a heart of baltics. there is a difference, think about it :)
But that guy says that Riga isn't a city, think about it too :)

What's up with all the talks about Vilnius' high population growth?

What's up with all the talks about Vilnius' high population growth?
High depopulation of other cities and low population growth of Vilnius city. It has some influence for the perspective i guess.

But yes, other cities do have metro area :D

The real point here is how much influence for the city skyline has population (i think the main point is the policy of the city as somebody mentioned) and also Vilnius would take many years to equal with Riga by population even if the tendencys wouldn't change.

And one more thing, Latvia is planning new tax for the realty. It will increase the payment for the realty very much (atleast 25%) so this can hurt investment to your realty market very hard.

@Rebasepoiss: Somewhere at www.vilnius.lt I saw predictions of population growth for Vilnius. I'll try to find it later. Main arguments are that Vilnius has bigger resources of inner migration and re emigration + better and better natural growth.

Vilnius will surpass Riga... blah blah. Then Paris (2,2 mio in municipal borders) is smaller than Kiev (2,7 mio). Although have not noticed Ukrainians claiming this.

I think that it's much easier to guess which city will have the biggest population growth in comming 10 years (Vilnius) :)

I think people should stop pulling ideas out of their asses :I
Oh here, ill do it too:
Look at Lithuania, 3 big cities, Klaipeda, Kaunas and Vilnius... you really think this situation is comparable with Estonia and Latvia where there is really ONE city....? Dont you see there will be huge competition between the three cities in Lithuania, with all drawing some population, the way I see it - Vilnius has the least growth potential..

High depopulation of other cities and low population growth of Vilnius city. It has some influence for the perspective i guess.

What other cities have high depopulation then?

And the only reason Vilnius is showing "population growth" is because your city area is HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE, encompassing the outer areas where this suburbanization is leading all baltic capital populations, in Tallinn and Riga were "loosing" people to suburbanization, while in Vilnius this isnt practically an issue!

And the only reason Vilnius is showing "population growth" is because your city area is HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE, encompassing the outer areas where this suburbanization is leading all baltic capital populations, in Tallinn and Riga were "loosing" people to suburbanization, while in Vilnius this isnt practically an issue!
:ohno: :ohno: :ohno:
Vilnius "loosing" people to suburbanization the same as Tallinn and Riga but it is all the same have growth.

I know it's hard to admit it, but relax guys. :) First of all ch1le, you can look at municipality+region or just Vilnius city population number growth if that HUGE area of Vilnius municipality scares you so much. :) Secondly, these ideas are not pulled out of the asses. ;) In most documents with population forecasts which I saw the situation in Vilnius was described as the best one out of the Baltic state capitals. Of course you can ignore them, no one can 100% forecast the future populations of our cities. Just wait and see for yourself. Thirdly, it seems that you don't know the situation in Lithuania. People from Kaunas usually make such jokes out of citizens of Vilnius: "citizens of Vilnius = villagers + excitizens of Kaunas". There is some truth in these words, many people from Kaunas moved to Vilnius. So really, I hope now you can see what kind of "competition" we have. If there will be competition between three biggest Lithuanian cities in this sphere in the future, Tallinn will still not have such numbers of people behind it as Vilnius. Also, don't forget that quite soon 160km/h trains will be available between Vilnius and Kaunas (I'm sure they will be faster after 10-15 years though ;)), so it's only a big +.

2006 01 01 - 2007 01 01

Vilnius city
+856

Vilnius district (not county)
+570

Vilnius city
+458 more newborn babies in 2006 than in a previous year

Average "daytime population" in 2005 (According to municipality and department of statistics of Lithuania)
673 000

Future

According to strategic plan of the city, prepared by specialists, not by politicians or us, Vilnius city in 2015:

city population - 576 000
Daytime population - 716 000
Metro area population - 875 000

What other cities have high depopulation then?
Atm Riga surely does. Kaunas also. Klaipėda compared to it's size also. Should check Tallinn numbers.

Atm Riga surely does. Kaunas also. Klaipėda compared to it's size also. Should check Tallinn numbers.
Tallinn's population is stabile in the city proper and growing in the suburbs.

Tallinn's population is stabile in the city proper and growing in the suburbs.

not to mention Tallinn has positive natural growth, more births then deaths...

Depopulation is higher in Latvia and Estonia - that's true and its logical:
Lithuanian population is 90% catholic right, while Latvian and Estonian are mostly protestant and a bit orthodox, and assuming that level of deaths and life expectation in all 3 countries are pretty much equal, this means that catholic Lithuanians make more babies! ;) :D
But it's true - catholic people have generally a bit more children that protestant people. And many really religious catholics don't use contraceptives... :bash: :D I know a truly catholic family in Eastern Latvia who are are like that - have 7 kinds and expecting 8th... :ohno:

Yes Estonia is VERY close to having positive population growth (its positive in Harjumaa already)... not to mention our net migration is positive, not the same situation as in Latvia, not even mentioning Lithuania!

Estonia had positive population change in July and August 2006. This year the population change of Estonia became positive already in June. If the positive trend continues, that is growing birth-rate and sustained positive immigration, then in about one or two years Estonia will have annual growth. ;)

Main Social and Economic Indicators of Estonia, July 2007:
http://www.stat.ee/files/evaljaanded/2007/pohinaitajad-200707.pdf

Estonia had positive population change in July and August 2006. This year the population change of Estonia became positive already in June. If the positive trend continues, that is growing birth-rate and sustained positive immigration, then in about one or two years Estonia will have annual growth. ;)

Main Social and Economic Indicators of Estonia, July 2007:
http://www.stat.ee/files/evaljaanded/2007/pohinaitajad-200707.pdf
Actually it's said that Estonia won't have a stabile positive natural birth rate before 2040-2050, because the number of children per woman is at the moment around 1,5, but it has to be 2,1. Simple math tells you, why.

Actually it's said that Estonia won't have a stabile positive natural birth rate before 2040-2050, because the number of children per woman is at the moment around 1,5, but it has to be 2,1. Simple math tells you, why.

hmh well yeah Stable is hard to reach..

Actually it's said that Estonia won't have a stabile positive natural birth rate before 2040-2050, because the number of children per woman is at the moment around 1,5, but it has to be 2,1. Simple math tells you, why.

Sub-replacement level TFR does not necessarily imply decline, otherwise Finland - and just about every European country - would have a declining population. Population change depends also on age structure of the country, which in Estonia's case is not all that bad, as you guys had a comparetively high TFR still in late 80s. Secondly increased life span plays a role as well, Japan being a case in point. Thirdly, TFR is a bit misleading term, anyway and causes people to perceive the situation as quite a bit worse than it actually is. In terms of crude birthrate, Estonia is now on-par with Finland and the Netherlands, for instance, and only slightly below Sweden and Denmark, and improving at a pretty remarkable rate.

Difference between "Vilnius city mun." and "Riga city under state jurisdiction":
2001 - 202346,00
2002 - 193784,00
2003 - 186000,00
2004 - 182441,00
2005 - 178701,00
2006 - 174025,00
2007 - 168076,00

On average at this period (2001-2007) population difference each year decreases by 5711,67. If such tendencies will continue in 2018/2019 (after 11-12 years) the difference will be about ~100 000. And after 30 years (2037) "Vilnius city mun." will be bigger than "Riga city under state jurisdiction".

Of course I admit that these calculations might mean nothing.

As for natural growth, situation is not really getting only better and better in Vilnius. Whatever posted information that there were more newborn babies in 2006 but he forgot to look at death numbers (also increased). ;)

Birth rates have little to do with skyline growth, if we wouldn't build a human skyline, would we :D? It'd only affect a possibility to build one. But those dreams of future skyline are based on hopes that current economic situation would last for at least 10 years on. But if we read economic news, then it doesn't take a genius to realize that these hopes are commonly built on air. Latvias economy is overheating already and situation is not quite better in Estonia as well(rating agencies are lowering Latvias rates and Estonias rates are in great risk). And if we take a look at international economical health, then it's obvious that world economy is entering a very difficult period(rising oil prices and tense political situation and real estate markets collapse threats etc). So I'm not very optimistic about "everlasting" loan based economy boom. It is probably about to end in near future, simple as that. It wouldn't surprise me if many of already started projects will be on hold soon.

By wikipedia Vilnius population was in 2006 about 610,000th.. :)

Birth rates have little to do with skyline growth, if we wouldn't build a human skyline, would we ? It'd only affect a possibility to build one. But those dreams of future skyline are based on hopes that current economic situation would last for at least 10 years on. But if we read economic news, then it doesn't take a genius to realize that these hopes are commonly built on air. Latvias economy is overheating already and situation is not quite better in Estonia as well(rating agencies are lowering Latvias rates and Estonias rates are in great risk). And if we take a look at international economical health, then it's obvious that world economy is entering a very difficult period(rising oil prices and tense political situation and real estate markets collapse threats etc). So I'm not very optimistic about "everlasting" loan based economy boom. It is probably about to end in near future, simple as that. It wouldn't surprise me if many of already started projects will be on hold soon.
^^ ^^ ^^^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^
That somehow gets me nervous. Already Da Vinci is on hold and Z-towers are too, but probality that they're(Z-towers) are going to be completely on hold is low.

As for natural growth, situation is not really getting only better and better in Vilnius. Whatever posted information that there were more newborn babies in 2006 but he forgot to look at death numbers (also increased). ;)

Let them oldies die for all i care, i meant what i said - birthrates are rising rather quickly after many years of steady decline and i'm sure well have a positive natural growth in coming few years

Z-Towers are running again! Here you can see it:

http://www.ztowers.lv/lat/project/web-cam/
That was quick :happy:

Is it just me or this thread is dead?:deadthrea