How much longer do you think the boom will last in Chicago? I hope it never ends, or maybe we're just in the middle, but i was curious as to what you all think. Are we nearing the end? Is the condo boom going to switch to a rental boom? Will there be more of an office boom, or will it just be steady construction? I realize this is completely speculative, but i like seeing people's opinions on it.

I think some of this boom hinges on the Olympics. If we do get the bid I think it will be a great chance to show the world what a great American city Chicago is, and how incredibly cheap it is to live here, comparatively speaking.

But for now I am thoroughly enjoying the ride.

I like your ideas, nicely put. Totally agree.

well, as far as office boom goes, i think 300 north lasalle is the only office tower under construction. according to its page (on this site), offices are 15% vacant in chicago, and the only reason 300 is getting built is because existing tenants of other buildings want to pay to switch to something newer. even knowing that, i dont think focus will shift to office construction anytime soon...

but as far as condos go, i THINK mandarin oriental got approved after spire did, and now we have the 1100 foot waldorf-astoria proposed. they just seem to keep rolling in, even after spire, and i dont see that trend stopping before olympics. in my nonprofessional opinion anyways.

As much as I'd like to see the boom continue, I believe it has already begun to slow down. Cities are dynamic places, there is an ebb and flow. Right now we are experiencing a move back into the city, but in 30, 40, 50 years even people may start moving back out into the suburbs and cities will become hollowed shells again...who knows?! Personally, I don't know how the hell the Spire is going to sell the majority of its units.

Things may slow down but I think Chicago and the Midwest in general are very well-positioned for the foreseeable future. A sinking dollar will lead to a resurgence in manufacturing, while the agricultural sector is booming with record food prices/ethanol demand. All of this rural money will percolate up and find expression on La Salle Street and Michigan Avenue.

One major key is school reform and whether younger couples will stay in the city after having kids. Among my friends about half are staying and the other half are heading for the burbs.

Cities are dynamic places, there is an ebb and flow. Right now we are experiencing a move back into the city, but in 30, 40, 50 years even people may start moving back out into the suburbs and cities will become hollowed shells again...who knows?!

I doubt we'll see anything on the scale of what happened after WWII. This was made possible only by racism and the invention of the automobile. At no time in history has a regional economic decline caused people to move out of cities - the invention of the automobile corresponding with the rust-belt decline allowed the form of the city to change, but it was still a city in the broadest sense. Now that we've had almost a century to figure out how to properly put auto usage and density together, cities should be fine for awhile.

Despite some isolated incidents, I think that racism is definitely down on the whole in Chicagoland. The city is still extremely segregated, but that is starting to change as the projects on the South Side are replaced. The auto is still around, but we've learned to deal with the problems it wreaks on urban settlement. The only suburban exodus I can foresee is a mass exodus of poverty-stricken urban minorities as their property values go up. This isn't a good thing either, but you can hardly call a gentified hood an "hollowed shell".

Doh, double post.

I don't think there will be a mass exodus a la 1945...

..but the city is where the flow of money is at right now. It could easily change with a new economic regime. The suburbs in the late '40s was where economic gains could be had, today it's in the city as the suburbs kind of burnt out their advantage.

I am not minority so I really can't say whether racism is very prevalent in Chicago still. Chicago is still the most segregated city in the US, but like you said it's getting better.

Working class people (middle class) continue to leave the city in large numbers. Many of those who are still in the city, especially blacks and hispanics, would leave if they could and many probable will. The people who are moving to the city(larger percentage) are the ones who afford the amenities that it has to offer (great restaurants, theater, etc.). The key to the city continuing growth is the baby boomers, new immigrants and, professional younger people. Immigrants tend to want the american dream (larger home/yard), baby boomers will level off in the next decade or so, and how many young highly paid professionals who want an urban lifestyle live in the Chicago area. All of these issues will play an important part in the continuing growth of the city.

I also believe that the construction boom is over. Many of the announced project will not be constructed in the next few years.

I also believe that the construction boom is over. Many of the announced project will not be constructed in the next few years.

^ I'm not sure about that. Too many people are caught up in quarterly economic events. You have to look long term.

There's plenty of developable land, plenty of demand to live in the city, a good long-term economic outlook for downtown Chicago, and the midwest has all the world's freshwater.

Development will continue to occur around Chicago's inner core. A few projects may fizzle out because of the market, but new ones will come along (or old ones will be brought back to life) once this momentary dip subsides

well, as far as office boom goes, i think 300 north lasalle is the only office tower under construction. according to its page (on this site), offices are 15% vacant in chicago, and the only reason 300 is getting built is because existing tenants of other buildings want to pay to switch to something newer. even knowing that, i dont think focus will shift to office construction anytime soon...

but as far as condos go, i THINK mandarin oriental got approved after spire did, and now we have the 1100 foot waldorf-astoria proposed. they just seem to keep rolling in, even after spire, and i dont see that trend stopping before olympics. in my nonprofessional opinion anyways.

The office market is its "own" proven market. It doesn't fit into the old way of thinking. It has been pretty healthy since 2000 and what with 155 N Wacker getting ready to start and 200 N Canal in the planning stages it is very healthy in my opinion. How people deny after all these buildings being built that there isn't a market I will never be able to figure out.

111 South Wacker Drive office 681 ft ... .. 51 2005

Hyatt Center office 679 ft 48 2005

UBS Tower office 651 ft ... .. 50 2001

1 South Dearborn office 571 ft ... .. 40 2005

191 North Wacker Drive office 516 ft ... .. 37 2002

ABN AMRO Plaza I office 453 ft ... .. 29 2003
[from SSP http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=128596]

The baby boom retires didn't all die off....we just started to get them to return back to the inner city. They are still coming. The upper income people do not need crazy ass loans to buy their homes so they will not be affected by the subprime mess. I remember reading the Tribune back in the middle 90's when they were talking about the housing market becoming more realistic after the few years of rebirth they had experienced back then and in reality it only got hotter and has been going for what....over 15 years now? And we had a recession in 2001 and they kept building....and buying. So I am not to worried about Chicago's market at this point.

I was thinking about the condo boom going on in chicago and redevelopment. In Dallas they started a little redevelopment of downtown starting with an urban rail system. Dallas seems like a work in progress but the office space occupancy improved there as a direct result. I wouldn't be surprised if in 5 to 10 years chicago ends up with a need for more downtown office space. The condos should bring in good tax revenues for the city so they can improve the city and the rail system in chicago, which will attract more people. If chicago plays its cards right it can keep growing.

I was thinking about the condo boom going on in chicago and redevelopment. In Dallas they started a little redevelopment of downtown starting with an urban rail system. Dallas seems like a work in progress but the office space occupancy improved there as a direct result. I wouldn't be surprised if in 5 to 10 years chicago ends up with a need for more downtown office space. The condos should bring in good tax revenues for the city so they can improve the city and the rail system in chicago, which will attract more people. If chicago plays its cards right it can keep growing.

Chicago Office Towers have been built or is process of being built 2000-2007
18 Highrises
8330 feet tall
587 floors

Am confused about your "play its cards right". I can always hope for more..but to me it is pretty impressive.

For the record since 1999 the following has happened (most of which are in downtown):

130 highrises have been built - TOTAL Floors 3561
63 underconstruction - TOTAL Floors 2330

104 have been proposed or site prep started


OFFICE CONSTRUCTION DOWNTOWN:

Heigth Floors Y/Completed
1) 111 South Wacker Drive 681ft 51 2005

2) Hyatt Center 679ft 48 2005

3) UBS Tower 651ft 50 2001

4) Citadel Center 580ft 39 2003

5) 1 South Dearborn 571ft 40 2005

6) 191 North Wacker Drive 516ft 37 2002

7) 550 West Washington 244ft 17 2000

8) ABN AMRO Plaza I 453ft 29 2003

9) 550 West Jackson 276ft 18 2000

10) 550 west Adams 262 ft 19 2006

11) Quaker Plaza 260 ft 17 2002

12) Congress Center 258 ft 17 2001

13) CTA Center 191 ft 12 2004

14) 300 North Lasalle 785 ft 60 2009

15) Blue Cross-Blue Shield** 385 ft 24 Addition to 411ft 33floors

16) 353 North Clark 624 ft 44 2009

17) CBS 2 Broadcast Center 276 ft 17 2007

Site Development

18) 155 North Wacker 638 ft 48

Really do recommend this link to see what has transpired in old Chicago since 1999:
[from SSP http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/show....php?t=128596]

well, i've cleaned up all the bull shit in this thread. if you don't want to discuss how much longer chicago's highrise building boom might last, the please move along to a different thread.

My theory is that the high rise boom across the whole USA is going to accelerate, some cities are in the middle of it (chicago, miami, new york and many more) and some are starting to build smaller high rises around 20-30 floor level, dallas, and some have some serious plans for 40 floor buildings such as austin texas. I see the start of a nation wide high rise boom, which is likely due to a change in how americans want to live, mainly based on the fact that with 3 bucks per gallon gasoline people would rather walk outside of their apartment and have the mass transit of a city center or the closeness of restaurants and shopping areas available. This includes myself, I had always thought of myself living in the suburbs later on in life and now I've changed my mind. I want to live in or close to a nice city center and have everything I need in walking distance.

The weak US dollar is a good way to boost our manufacturing industry and attract tourists, but it's not good for gas prices. I just read that they expect another record for oil prices in 2008, which means what maybe $3.50 per gallon this upcoming summer.

I bet that it will take a rest after all of these buildings are completed but I don't see it coming to a complete stop. This holds true especially if we win the 2016 Olympics. If that happens then there will be an even bigger boom then now.

That of course is just my 2 cents.

It's nearly impossbile to predict the specifics of what might happen in the near future in this city. We are currently in a transitional stage, where everyone young wants to live in the city, and everyone old wants to live here too. The middle-aged with kids want to go to the suburbs or are already there. To create a situation where people raise there families here, the public schools have to be drastically improved by a vast margin. The CTA needs to be vastly improved as well. Cities like miami are much more pleasant to get around on public transit, and are just as affordable as here. The problem is that we already have such a vast, aging system in place- replacing it is too expensive for short-term thinkers, and the maintenance is temporary and causes recurring problems and additional costs. Once we get a governor that realizes the importance of the city to the state's and region's well-being, as soon as the federal government helps a city thrive rather than recover from billions in damages (miami, new orleans, la, sf), and as soon as we can make public transit more reliable, more attractive and more comfortable we'll be able to say for sure that things will consistently move forward in the right direction. However, there is no willingness to invest in our public transit and education- a lot of this has to do with capitol hill's policies and bush's spending. It hits all places across america where roads need to be repaired and expanded, where bridges need to be repaired and rebuilt. I think the war ending (who knows when it will happen) has as much to do with our city's success as anything else, because the money to fix our two major problems isnt there. Sorry for the long post, but I could write a hundred times this amount when discussing the endless variables in chicago's near future outlook.

^ And vote for people who think long term. Our national debt and deficit dont apparently mean anything, so why not have the city continue to borrow endless amounts of money? Debt doesnt seem to mean anything anymore, so why not get $20- 30 billion we dont have and build a new cta? :lol:

If Chicago doesn’t get selected in October 2009 for the 2016 Olympics, the current boom will end in 2010 - 2011. I haven’t counted them but someone should look at the number of 50 story proposals that have been released since September of 2006. Maybe 5. Everything elsle will top out by 2011. Ok the Waldorf Astoria project and GP 3 and 4 should all get built but there isnt alot in the pipline.

If we do get the Olympics we will see another boom in proposals that will be completed before 2016. If not we are in for a cooling off.

If Chicago doesn’t get selected in October 2009 for the 2016 Olympics, the current boom will end in 2010 - 2011. I haven’t counted them but someone should look at the number of 50 story proposals that have been released since September of 2006. Maybe 5. Everything elsle will top out by 2011. Ok the Waldorf Astoria project and GP 3 and 4 should all get built but there isnt alot in the pipline.

If we do get the Olympics we will see another boom in proposals that will be completed before 2016. If not we are in for a cooling off.


I tend to agree with this take.

I believe some of the projects proposed (Mandarin, Et cætera al) and some even U/C (Spire) right now, are betting on a Chicago bid win and have been doing so for a while.

If Chicago doesn’t get selected in October 2009 for the 2016 Olympics, the current boom will end in 2010 - 2011. I haven’t counted them but someone should look at the number of 50 story proposals that have been released since September of 2006. Maybe 5. Everything elsle will top out by 2011. Ok the Waldorf Astoria project and GP 3 and 4 should all get built but there isnt alot in the pipline.

If we do get the Olympics we will see another boom in proposals that will be completed before 2016. If not we are in for a cooling off.

Obviously this thought is just being pulled out of the air. Seemed to me the Spire came about before talk of the Olympics and so did Trump and so did Waterview and so did Hines..............................................:nuts:

My point is that the Spire, Trump, Waterview all completed before 2011. The current proposal - vision list of 50+ consist of Wolf Point, Waldorf Astoria, Park Mich, 200 Riverside, Madarin Oriental, 680 Rush, 560 Fairbanks, Arquitectonica and GP 3 & 4. Some of these may not get built and some if started before the end of 2008 could TO in 2011.

I just don't see the momentum of highrise projects coming into the pipeline. The Olympics would give both developers and investors an added incentive to come back into to the Chicago highrise condo, condo-hotel market which has been 90% of our boom.

200 Riverside

The "boom" deals with mostly residential construction. 200 Riverside I think is less affected by any slippage in residential sales simply because it is an office tower.

The hotel portion may be canceled, or converted to a parking garage, but I think the proposal will continue with momentum in order to deliver a project 1-1.5 years after 155 North Wacker, which is realistically when the market can begin to handle more office space downtown.

Remember, the office market has been slow for years, yet John Buck and a couple others have continued to put up new towers at a rate of 1 million sq. feet per year, or roughly 1 50-story tower per year.

This gives me faith that Wolf Point, if there is anything to the proposal, will also continue along in order to deliver space 1-1.5 years after 200 North Riverside.

The "boom" deals with mostly residential construction. 200 Riverside I think is less affected by any slippage in residential sales simply because it is an office tower.

The hotel portion may be canceled, or converted to a parking garage, but I think the proposal will continue with momentum in order to deliver a project 1-1.5 years after 155 North Wacker, which is realistically when the market can begin to handle more office space downtown.

Remember, the office market has been slow for years, yet John Buck and a couple others have continued to put up new towers at a rate of 1 million sq. feet per year, or roughly 1 50-story tower per year.

This gives me faith that Wolf Point, if there is anything to the proposal, will also continue along in order to deliver space 1-1.5 years after 200 North Riverside.

If what I showed is a slow office market that is fantastic!

People confuse overall vacancy rate in downtown Chicago with Class A demand. Totally different. Buck and Hines have figured that out.....


Downtown office space on the rise
Highest prices in years bode well for new construction

October 3, 2007
DAVID ROEDER


http://www.suntimes.com/business/roeder/585018,CST-FIN-roeder03.article

Just a couple of years ago, a business hunting for downtown office space in Chicago could count on lease concessions and plenty of buildings from which to choose. Not any more.

The balance of power has moved dramatically in favor of the landlord...

If what I showed is a slow office market that is fantastic!

People confuse overall vacancy rate in downtown Chicago with Class A demand. Totally different. Buck and Hines have figured that out.....


Downtown office space on the rise
Highest prices in years bode well for new construction

October 3, 2007
DAVID ROEDER


http://www.suntimes.com/business/roeder/585018,CST-FIN-roeder03.article

Just a couple of years ago, a business hunting for downtown office space in Chicago could count on lease concessions and plenty of buildings from which to choose. Not any more.

The balance of power has moved dramatically in favor of the landlord...


If the dollar keeps going down, our industrial and service output will start to increase as exports of products and services increase, companies will grow, new companies will emerge and therefore office space will be needed. It's not just exports, we'll also be buying more of our own products, as american products gain ground in our own market. At the same time gasoline prices will rise, because a low dollar means that importing oil is expensive, causing people to want to move to more central locations and businesses will want to be located in more central locations to reduce travel expenses, therefore stimulating more construction in city centers and more density.

I'll bet the weak dollar and rising oil prices are why we are seeing lots of construction in the city centers nowa days

If the dollar keeps going down, our industrial and service output will start to increase as exports of products and services increase, companies will grow, new companies will emerge and therefore office space will be needed. It's not just exports, we'll also be buying more of our own products, as american products gain ground in our own market. At the same time gasoline prices will rise, because a low dollar means that importing oil is expensive, causing people to want to move to more central locations and businesses will want to be located in more central locations to reduce travel expenses, therefore stimulating more construction in city centers and more density.

I'll bet the weak dollar and rising oil prices are why we are seeing lots of construction in the city centers nowa days


Glad to see you finally see a strong office building market here in Chicago. Whew.

Speaking of a weakening dollar, I wonder how many, if any, of these high-end projects are being advertised and marketed to foreign buyers. Marketed properly, I think that these propoties could be quite appealing to affluent foreigners looking for a place to summer and/or visit in general, or the parents of foreign students at UofC and Northwestern. Also, in countries with shaky banking systems, parking money in U.S. real estate is very popular.

www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-071005chicago-office-market,0,1896237.story


Chicago office market strong ... for now

By Susan Diesenhouse

Tribune staff reporter

1:56 PM CDT, October 5, 2007

The Chicago office market seems headed for a strong performance this year but a deeper look at the results so far has raised concern among some industry experts.

According to the numbers, the city is poised to have a record year for downtown office building sales.

...