South Africa: Population Grows By 4-Million Since 2001

Business Day

ANALYSIS
25 October 2007

Linda Ensor
Cape Town

The size of the South African population has shot up by nearly 4-million since 2001 and now stands at 48,5-million, a major survey undertaken by Statistics SA has shown.

The results of the Community Survey, or mini-census, were released in P arliament yesterday. They provide data about the age, education and geographical distribution of the population, and measure the progress made in delivering services such as sanitation, refuse removal, education, electricity, housing and water.

Statistician-general Pali Lehohla said the population had risen 8,2% since 2001, when it stood at 44,8-million (1996: 40,5-million), increasing an annual average of 1,5%. Women (25- million) outnumber men (23,4-million). However, while the size of the population has increased, the birth rate has declined from 2,8% in 2001 to 2,5% in 2007.

The number of directly reported deaths rose from 13,5 in 1000 in 2002 to 14,3 in 1000 this year.

Lehohla said the information showed that "today is better than yesterday". He told a parliamentary media briefing that the preliminary estimate of life expectancy in SA was 54 years for women and 51 years for men.

The survey also showed that the age structure of the population was changing, with the percentage share of the population aged below 14 years gradually decreasing and those above 65 years increasing.

Gauteng has overtaken KwaZulu-Natal as the most populous province, with 10,5-million people compared with 10,3-million. The rates of population growth of both Gauteng (14%) and Western Cape (16%) have outstripped those of other provinces due to internal migration.

The populations of Eastern Cape and Free State rose at a slower rate than the average, although that of Mpumalanga remained constant.

South Africans as a whole are becoming more educated, the survey showed.

The percentage of the population aged 20 years and older with no schooling declined from 17,9% in 2001 to 10,3% in 2007 and 28% of this category had completed at least secondary education. Housing conditions have also greatly improved. More than 70% of households now live in formal dwellings, up from 64,4% in 1996 and 68,5% in 2001.

Ownership of radios, televisions, computers, refrigerators and cellphones has increased considerably, while the demand for land telephone lines has decreased due to the popularity of cellular phones.

Cellphone ownership rocketed from 32,3% of the population in 2001 to 72,9% this year.

With regard to services, 60% of households have access to a flush toilet, 88,6% (2001: 84,5%) enjoy access to piped water and 80% of households use electricity for lighting, compared with 57,6% in 1996. Lehohla found this dramatic increase in electricity provision very noteworthy.

The proportion of households in Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal using electricity for lighting was below the national average.

The survey was based on a random sample of 274000 households, and involved 1182 fieldwork supervisors and 4728 enumerators. Data on municipal and district councils will be released in January. Stats SA plans to undertake a full census in 2011.

Time to sift slowly through rough stones of statistics

Business Day

30 October 2007

Hilary Joffe


WHEN Statistics SA went public last week with the results of its Community Survey, the “mini-census” that involved a survey of more than a quarter of million households, the emphasis was on service delivery rather than on the demographic data that one usually considers to be the core business of a census. One of Stats SA’s mandates is to monitor government’s progress, so it is fair enough that the R600m survey included a report card on the government’s service delivery record. And a glowing report card it seems to be, one that President Thabo Mbeki was quick to highlight in his weekly letter. The survey shows service delivery has proceeded at a remarkable pace over the past decade, with the proportion of households that have gained access to formal housing, electricity and water surely unmatched in much of the developing world. Yet the figures raise as many questions as answers, and that’s the case not only with service delivery but also with the demographic data. Policy makers should be probing the survey findings carefully, rather than indulging in too much self-congratulation.

For example, as many as 80% of households now use electricity for lighting, up from only 58% a decade ago, though far fewer use it for cooking and heating, indicating this is more a problem of incomes than access.

Then there are the housing findings. The survey shows a remarkable 71% of households now live in formal dwellings, up from 64% a decade ago. If that high a proportion of households has brick-and-mortar housing of one sort or another (with a further 12% in “traditional dwellings”), why is the government so obsessed with the need to build millions more houses? There surely are some nuances the survey can’t pick up, in terms of what is or isn’t formal, and what the housing backlog really entails. Part of the answer lies in the rapid changes in the nature and location of households that the survey does pick up. Of this, more later, but essentially, household sizes are shrinking, with up to 40% comprising only one or two people — a trend that tells us important and even worrying things about our society but also helps to explain why the more houses the government builds, the bigger the backlog grows.

And it’s in these kinds of demographic trends that the survey produces some really intriguing results.

The headline number for population growth is perhaps the most striking, because it is so low. SA’s population has been growing at only 1,5% a year since the last census in 2001. That’s quite a drop from the 2% growth rate recorded between the previous two censuses. But it includes net immigration and a couple of other statistical quirks. What demographers call the “natural population increase” is even lower, at less than 1%.

Most people’s reaction is to cite AIDS deaths to explain the declining population growth rate. And the mortality figures from the survey do show the effect of AIDS, particularly in the higher death rates for young women, deaths that in turn mean there are fewer women of child-bearing age. But what’s keeping population growth low is that the fertility rate is unusually low, certainly by the standards of most African countries, at only 2,5 children per woman (in Uganda, for example, the fertility rate is 4). Just to replace the population would take 2,1 children per woman. The fertility rate for African women is running ahead of that, at 2,7, but for white and Indian women it’s well below, at 1,4.

A population growth rate of only 1,5% or even 1% is good news, especially when the economy is growing at 4,5%-5%.

The survey also shows that the age structure of the population is starting to normalise a bit, so that there isn’t such an “age bulge” of young children under the age of 14. Over time that helps to take some pressure off the education system, as well as reduce the number of new workers coming into the labour force, so helping to curb unemployment. Incidentally, life expectancy comes out of the survey at an average 54 for women and 51 for men, countering more pessimistic estimates of life expectancy somewhere in the 40s.

But the declining fertility rate does need explaining and, in seeking explanations, one comes across some trends that are at least thought provoking, at worst disturbing. Part of it is the result of more women working and better levels of education for women, benign factors that everywhere tend to be correlated with women having fewer children. But demographically, the average age at which women first marry is also correlated with the number of children they have. And the survey reveals the average age at which women first marry in SA is 30,5 (32,9 for men). Not only is that much higher than anywhere else in Africa, where age of first marriage is generally under 20, but higher than advanced countries, such as Sweden and Switzerland. Issues such as lobola complicate the picture and, indeed, the fertility rate peaks between 20 and 29, suggesting most women in SA have children before they are formally married.

But shrinking household size is another factor that Statistician-General Pali Lehohla suggests could be a cause, not just an effect, of declining fertility rates, as well as of housing backlogs. This likely reflects a mobile, rapidly urbanising population, where many of the people are single (usually male) migrants. And that’s borne out by the provincial breakdowns. These show stark differences in population growth rates between the more urban and more rural provinces, differences which have policy implications in terms of where and how public resources should be deployed.

The crux of it is that Western Cape and Gauteng are growing much faster than the rest of SA. Western Cape showed the highest annual population growth rate between 2001 and 2007, of 2,9%; Gauteng has been growing at 2,4% a year over that period. Interestingly, the third of the “urban” provinces, KwaZulu-Natal, has remained stable over the period, growing at only 1,3% a year, so that Gauteng, with 21,5-million people, or 21,5% of the total population of 48,5-million, has now passed KwaZulu-Natal to become SA’s most populous province. Meanwhile, Free State and North West have hardly grown at all; Eastern Cape and Limpopo have also grown less than 1% a year over the past six years.

And the age demographics from the survey show the gulf between the poor, rural provinces, such as Limpopo and Eastern Cape, where there is a preponderance of children and old people (and, in the case of Eastern Cape, plenty of empty dwellings) and Gauteng or Western Cape, where there is a “bulge” of working-age people and a relative dearth of school-age kids. If you’re looking to build houses or infrastructure, the figures seem to suggest, the urban provinces are the place to put them; if you’re trying to improve education from the bottom up, you could make a bigger impact if you targeted the rural, dormitory provinces from which the migrants will come to look for jobs in Johannesburg or Cape Town.

Though it shows progress in some key areas of service delivery and education, as well as some benign demographic trends that bode well for the future, the survey also paints a picture of a society that is in transition and is suffering the strains of that transition — mobile, atomised communities, with little cohesion. They are, perhaps not incidentally, communities where owning a cellphone is deemed more important than owning a fridge: three-quarters now own a cellphone but fewer than two-thirds a fridge.

The Community Survey is the largest survey ever carried out by Stats SA and a lot more data are due to come out of it in coming months. A sample this size is large by any standards, and the results need to be taken seriously, even if some of them are rather startling and need further analysis. The picture they paint of society and the questions they raise should keep sociologists, economists, demographers and other researchers busy for a while to come. But there’s no point spending R600m on a survey unless its findings are used to ask serious questions about society and policy.

So once Mbeki and his ministers have exploited whatever propaganda value the findings have to offer, they should take a deeper look at what the survey is really telling us.

n Joffe is chief leader writer.

Population Groups in South Africa

Black African: 38,255,165 (78.9% of pop.)(1.4% annual growth since 2001)

White: 4,626,738 (9.5% of pop.)(1.2% annual growth since 2001)

Coloured: 4,375,527 (9.0% of pop.)(1.5% annual growth since 2001)

Indian/Asian: 1,244,634 (2.6% of pop.)(1.8% annual growth since 2001)

Total Population: 48,502,063 (100.0% of pop.)(1.3% annual growth since 2001)

Gauteng

Black African: 7,856,102 (75.2% of pop.)(2.2% annual growth since 2001)

White: 1,923,828 (18.4% of pop.)(1.7% annual growth since 2001)

Coloured: 390,188 (3.7% of pop.)(2.4% annual growth since 2001)

Indian/Asian: 281,595 (2.7% of pop.)(4.6% annual growth since 2001)

Total Population: 10,451,713 (100.0% of pop.)(2.2% annual growth since 2001)

Western Cape

Black African: 1,588,560 (30.1% of pop.)(4.9% annual growth since 2001)

White: 973,115 (18.4% of pop.)(2.7% annual growth since 2001)

Coloured: 2,647,465 (50.2% of pop.)(1.4% annual growth since 2001)

Indian/Asian: 69,446 (1.3% of pop.)(8.6% annual growth since 2001)

Total Population: 5,278,585 (100.0% of pop.)(2.6% annual growth since 2001)

KwaZulu-Natal

Black African: 8,825,220 (86.0% of pop.)(1.3% annual growth since 2001)

White: 452,224 (4.4% of pop.)(-1.0% annual decline since 2001)

Coloured: 145,904 (1.4% of pop.)(0.6% annual growth since 2001)

Indian/Asian: 835,882 (8.1% of pop.)(0.7% annual growth since 2001)

Total Population: 10,259,230 (100.0% of pop.)(1.1% annual growth since 2001)

Mosi, can you fix up the percentage of Black African for Western Cape, it looks incorrect.

Mosi, can you fix up the percentage of Black African for Western Cape, it looks incorrect.

Thanks Kulani

why do u have to say black african lol......dont make sense ...just say black..

why do u have to say black african lol......dont make sense ...just say black..


That is to distinguish blacks from coloureds, who are people of mixed race or browns who have mixed ancestry from Indonesians/Malays, Khoi Khoi,San, Dutch, English and black African tribal groups. Black Africans are defined as coming from one of the 12 ethnic tribal groups such as Zulu, Xhosa, Tswana, Sotho, etc.

why do u have to say black african lol......dont make sense ...just say black..


The word "Black" is also defined as including Black Africans, Coloureds and Indians/Asians, people who were disadvantaged under apartheid. The hated term of "non-Whites" was used during the apartheid era but the struggle movement referred to anyone who is disadvantaged due to apartheid as "Black."

Thanks for the history lesson. Didnt know that.

what about the massive influx of refugees from mad bob and other african hot spots, has this changed things as if the rate of increase has declined but there is an abnormal spike due to refugees/migrants/illigal aliens then the groth rate is actually lower than assumed?

White: 4,626,738 (9.5% of pop.)(1.2% annual growth since 2001)


I wonder if this increase can be confirmed? It is a nice turnaround.

what about the massive influx of refugees from mad bob and other african hot spots, has this changed things as if the rate of increase has declined but there is an abnormal spike due to refugees/migrants/illigal aliens then the groth rate is actually lower than assumed?

I wonder how many Zimbabweans, Nigerians, Mozambicans, Congolese are in South Africa now. Any idea?

With regards to immigrants, there are numerous reports, ranging from a figure of 8.1 million 'illegals' by the police, to one that cites between 2.5 million to 4 million by the Human Sciences Research Council (that has since actually been formally retracted). Indeed there is no clarity on how many immigrants there are in SA because the immigrants are either undocumented (and so are difficult to count), and regional immigration by it's nature entails a lot of travelling back and forth between home countries and host countries.

But put it this way - 100 000 people are presently awaiting their asylum seeker determinations, and in the first quarter of 2006 alone, 18 000 people applied for asylum. http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=282301&area=/insight/monitor

These people would mainly be from Zimbabwe and to a lesser extent, the DRC and Somalia. One cannot say how many other nationalities would be in SA, but the majority would be from Zimbabwe I think.

With regards to the population increase - I think there is no doubt that immigrants have contributed to the increase in our population. But I also think (and it has been shown) that immigration has also had a positive impact not only on the growth of SA's economy, but the region as a whole.

The white population has decreased dramatically over the years. From about 9 million to less than 5 miilion?!

LOL! The Nats could only have wished there were 9 million.

The white population has decreased dramatically over the years. From about 9 million to less than 5 miilion?!

Where did you read that? At no point in SA's history has there been 9 million whites.

Where did you read that? At no point in SA's history has there been 9 million whites.

There were at most 5.1 million whites living in South Africa in 1991 which was the last apartheid era census. This number fell to 4.4 million in 1996 and 4.3 million in 2001 but it appears that the economic boom since then caused the numbers to increase to 4.6 million, an increase of about 330,000 since 2001.

On a provincial level in 2001, only three provinces showed an increase in the white population between 1996-2001 Censuses: Gauteng (50,000), North West (9,000) and Western Cape (11,000). The biggest declines in white population were seen in KwaZulu-Natal (-57,000), Free State and Mpumalanga.

This was an improvement compared to the 2001 and 1996 censuses where the white population declined in every province. In fact the biggest decline was in Gauteng where it declined from 2.1 million to 1.7 million while the Western Cape showed the smallest decline in whites from 856,000 to 821,000. KwaZulu-Natal saw the number of whites decline from 603,000 in 1991 to 482,000 in 2001.

But in the 2007 mini-Census increases were recorded in six out of nine provinces. The biggest increases were seen in Gauteng (198,000), Western Cape (140,000) and Mpumalanga (50,000). The declines for the 2001-2007 period were seen in North West (-40,000), KwaZulu-Natal (-37,000), and Limpopo (-10,000). In fact Gauteng and Western Cape account for the lion share of the white population increase in the 2001-2007 period. In understanding the welcome change as far as this is the first time that the white population in SA increased since majority rule in 1994, we have to consider the fact that the rate of natural increase of this group (birth rate minus death rate) has steadily declined due to the aging of this group with a natural increase of between 0.25% and 0.50%. The rest of the increase which account for the bulk of the increase has to be attributed to net migration (immigration minus emigration) largely of expats returning to SA after residing in Western countries like the UK and Australia.

However if we were to look at the white population in 1991 and compare it to 2007, the population had declined from 5.1 million to 4.6 million meaning a real decline of 500,000. If we assume a 0.4% natural rate of increase in 16 years then we can surmise that just over 800,000 whites have left the country since 1991. If we are to look at it on a province basis in the 1991-2007 period, only the Western Cape had an increase in the white population of 117,000 (856,000 to 973,000), while Gauteng had a decline of 200,000 (from 2.1 million to 1.9 million). In KwaZulu-Natal the decline is more dramatic with a loss of 151,000 (from 603,000 to 452,000) while the other provinces also showed similar declines.

I wonder if this increase can be confirmed? It is a nice turnaround.

It has been confirmed by StatsSA which held a mini-census in February 2007. Most of the increase was due to net migration while the provincial numbers are due to internal migration patterns that were significant in that whites migrated to the heavily urbanised provinces of Gauteng and the Western Cape from the largely rural ones.

I wonder how many Zimbabweans, Nigerians, Mozambicans, Congolese are in South Africa now. Any idea?

There are at least 4 to 5 million Zimbabweans residing in South Africa, about 40% of the current population of Zimbabwe which is down to 10 to 11 million people.