View Full Version : Will Indonesia Overtake China in terms of GDP per capita ??


DJ_Archuleta
May 8th, 2008, 04:39 PM
Looking at our current GDP Per Capita (US$), We may overtake China in coming years.. and the chance of overtaking them is higher as indonesia's current growth gdp per capita is par with china.. Will it happen in the near future??


INDONESIA

Recent economic indicators: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007(a) 2008(b)

GDP (US$bn) (current prices): 234.8 257.0 285.9 364.4 432.9 488.1

GDP PPP (US$bn) (c): 603.2 650.2 705.2 767.5 837.8 906.7

GDP per capita (US$): 1,100 1,188 1,304 1,641 1,925 2,142

GDP per capita PPP (US$) (c): 2,825 3,005 3,217 3,456 3,725 3,979

Real GDP growth (% change YOY): 4.8 5.0 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.1

Current account balance (US$m): 8,111 1,564 278 10,836 11,009 8,987

Current account balance (% GDP): 3.5 0.6 0.1 3.0 2.5 1.8

Goods & services exports (% GDP): 29.6 32.2 35.0 31.6 29.4 30.1

Inflation (% change YOY): 6.8 6.1 10.5 13.1 6.4 7.1


CHINA

Recent economic indicators: 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(a) 2007(b)

GDP (US$bn) (current prices): 1,453.8 1,641.0 1,931.6 2,243.7 2,644.6 3,248.5

GDP PPP (US$bn) (c): 6,105.6 6,859.0 7,768.9 8,854.0 10,147.3 11,606.3

GDP per capita (US$): 1,132 1,270 1,486 1,716 2,013 2,460

GDP per capita PPP (US$) (c): 4,753 5,308 5,977 6,771 7,722 8,788

Real GDP growth (% change YOY): 9.1 10.0 10.1 10.4 11.1 11.4

Current account balance (US$m): 35,422 45,875 68,659 160,818 249,866 379,162

Current account balance (% GDP): 2.4 2.8 3.6 7.2 9.4 11.7

Goods & services exports (% GDP): 25.1 29.6 34.0 37.3 38.1 39.6

Inflation (% change YOY): -0.8 1.2 3.9 1.8 1.5 4.5


source: http://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/fs/

gliazzurra
May 8th, 2008, 04:42 PM
no, at least not in the near future.. they grow faster than us, so GDP per capita difference will only increase for now.. :)

AceN
May 8th, 2008, 05:35 PM
Yes they're growing faster than us, but their population is also bigger than us :) but GDP per capita is nothing than just a statistical data if the reality shown here, in Indonesia, is just poor get poorer, rich get richer..

DJ_Archuleta
May 8th, 2008, 05:44 PM
but i think that the rich get richer and poorer get poorer also happening
in most asian countries not only indonesia..

gliazzurra
May 8th, 2008, 05:52 PM
but i think that the rich get richer and poorer get poorer also happening
in most asian countries not only indonesia..

not just asian i believe, but in all countries..

asudarsono
May 9th, 2008, 01:59 AM
The danger (or advantage) in Indonesia is the same as in centralized countries like Japan, South Korea and France. The capitol has a big population and is the center of government as well as commerce. So there is the rich capitol (in the 3 countries I mentioned the capitol holds 20% or more of the total population) and the poor hinterland.

This means that the hinterland is a parasite toward the industrialized capitol (danger) or as a stabilizing bumper for the economy (advantage). Fortunately in Indonesia (like Russia) this is an advantage, making high per capita in a cheap economy very pleasant.

In any case, many expats from "rich" countries will do anything to keep on staying in Indonesia.

teddybear
May 9th, 2008, 02:30 AM
^China wins. Look at the inflation, year on year, Indonesia scores big. This means, in general, the Indonesian wage earner getting "poorer" faster since the inflation will take bigger bite out of the paycheck.

MARINHO
May 9th, 2008, 03:27 AM
If China cannot secure it's energy needs it's losing. And with the souring energy prices China will have big problems in the future.

Indonesia is selling it's natural resources to China and Chinese products do flood Indonesia's domestic markets which is creating a difficult environment for the Indonesian industries.

If Indonesia would limit its export or put higher taxes on raw materials and natural resources for export it could partially influence China's hunger for energy in a negative way. Creating a situation that Chinese companies will have to increase their prices which will make them less competitive in. Income from those taxes imposed on exports of natural resources should be used for subsidising the Indonesian industry.

"Everybody can learn to how to build and operate an industry but an industry cannot run without natural resources. And not every country has natural resources. China has not too many natural resources but Indonesia has plenty which is sold too cheap and withouth any benefit for it's citizens...............

I believe that Indonesia if it's manage it's natural resources in a good way it could end higher than China.

=NaNdA=
May 9th, 2008, 05:21 AM
gw cuma liat dari produknya aja deh..

China udah bisa bikin mobil n motor sendiri..
udah kaya bikin kacang goreng aja..Indonesia blum..

udah ada PLTN.. Indonesia blum..

apa lagi ya?

teddybear
May 9th, 2008, 05:58 AM
Sebenarnya ini thread soal GDP per capita kan. Kalo soal maju sih China udah di depan Indonesia. Based on the GDP data, China wins. Their economy growing faster. Plus, they have inflation not as big as Indonesia.
But I still believe both China and Indonesia potentially becomes big. Tapi korupsi nya itu lho, memusingkan deh.

rilham2new
May 10th, 2008, 01:16 PM
Sebuah negara kecil bernama CYPRUS juga GDP per kapitanya jauh di atas RRC maupun Indonesia. Dan mereka tidak memproduksi mobil atau teknologi apapun.

Indonesia getting better. We've seen that actually the gap getting narrower (while in China, we see the gap becoming wider). Btw, I personally believe, what boost China's economy is production sector. While in Indonesia, it is more to consumerism sector.... which is reall represented what really happened on the ground. And our govt is not covering something bad happened inside our country. They let international media to know the real situation (at least TO HELP also).

rilham2new
May 10th, 2008, 01:19 PM
Sebenarnya ini thread soal GDP per capita kan. Kalo soal maju sih China udah di depan Indonesia. Based on the GDP data, China wins. Their economy growing faster. Plus, they have inflation not as big as Indonesia.
But I still believe both China and Indonesia potentially becomes big. Tapi korupsi nya itu lho, memusingkan deh.

Karena ekonomi di RRC, bergerak dari sektor produksinya, makanya inflasinya terkontrol. Di Indonesi, ekonomi digerakkan oleh kemampuan konsumen, bukan PRODUSEN. Jadi Intinya di Indonesia, orang miskin sebagai konsumen terbesarlah yang memajukan perekonomian negara dan menjadi indikator langsung. Di RRC, kenyataannya "agak berbeda".

Ketika suatu negara "menyerahkan dirinya" pada sektor KONSUMEN. Memang sudah menjadi resiko (apalagi pemerintah belum tegas), untuk mengalami tingkat inflasi yang "gila".

Di RRC, perekonomian terkontrol ..... di Indonesia, 75% mekanisme pasar (padahal ekonomi kita masih belum stabil ,silahkan salahkan IMF brengsek....).

MARINHO
May 10th, 2008, 02:15 PM
Come on Nanda the situation is not so bad. Indonesia has a lot of valuable industries. But where China pays much attention on marketing and the Western world is putting all their eyes on China. Indonesia is not paying attention on overseas marketing nor the Western world is having Indonesia in the picture.
Indonesia has basically all industries but if Indonesian buyers (especially the govt and SOEs) prefers to buy foreign products instead of local products some industries will not have the ability to develop improved products. Customer feedback is a key to improved products.


Some of Indonesia's industries

petrochemical
palmoil
rollingstock
automotive (cars and coachwork)
ships and boats
aircraft
defense (from handweapons to APC)
steel
fishing
hospital equipment
woodcutting
nuclear (radioisotopes)
food (Nanda for kacang see garudafood.com)
creative
handicrafts
tourism

gw cuma liat dari produknya aja deh..

China udah bisa bikin mobil n motor sendiri..
udah kaya bikin kacang goreng aja..Indonesia blum..

udah ada PLTN.. Indonesia blum..

apa lagi ya?

teddybear
May 10th, 2008, 03:59 PM
silahkan salahkan IMF brengsek....).
Memang IMF dan George Soros adalah alat dari Amerika dan negara Barat mengacaukan ekonomi negara lain!
Keadaan ekonomi China dan Indonesia ada kemiripannya. Keduanya terjangkit korupsi dan rakyat yang banyak dan pendapatan tidak tinggi. Aku rasa Indonesia perlu mengentas rakyatnya dari kemiskinan dengan pendidikan, pemberantasan korupsi. Saya ingin melihat sektor IT Indonesia berkembang kayak di India!

Red flag's egg
May 10th, 2008, 04:55 PM
^China wins. Look at the inflation, year on year, Indonesia scores big. This means, in general, the Indonesian wage earner getting "poorer" faster since the inflation will take bigger bite out of the paycheck.

china's inflation rockets to 8% the first quarter. due to food price rise,and petrol

Yes they're growing faster than us, but their population is also booming faster than us but GDP per capita is nothing than just a statistical data if the reality shown here, in Indonesia, is just poor get poorer, rich get richer..
china's population is not growing so fast, there are one child policy applied to chinese majority han. the population gtowth rate is par with USA, i can say ,only within 10 years
india will be the most populous country in world.


If China cannot secure it's energy needs it's losing. And with the souring energy prices China will have big problems in the future.
....................
I believe that Indonesia if it's manage it's natural resources in a good way it could end higher than China.


agree!
energy is indeed nightmare of chinese economy. though china has a land larger than indonesia, it may has less nature resources than indonesia. that why china has to do business with some country is being watched by US,like sudan, iran...

mememe
May 10th, 2008, 05:16 PM
Looking at our current GDP Per Capita (US$), We may overtake China in coming years.. and the chance of overtaking them is higher as indonesia's current growth gdp per capita is par with china.. Will it happen in the near future??


INDONESIA

Recent economic indicators: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007(a) 2008(b)

GDP (US$bn) (current prices): 234.8 257.0 285.9 364.4 432.9 488.1

GDP PPP (US$bn) (c): 603.2 650.2 705.2 767.5 837.8 906.7

GDP per capita (US$): 1,100 1,188 1,304 1,641 1,925 2,142

GDP per capita PPP (US$) (c): 2,825 3,005 3,217 3,456 3,725 3,979

Real GDP growth (% change YOY): 4.8 5.0 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.1

Current account balance (US$m): 8,111 1,564 278 10,836 11,009 8,987

Current account balance (% GDP): 3.5 0.6 0.1 3.0 2.5 1.8

Goods & services exports (% GDP): 29.6 32.2 35.0 31.6 29.4 30.1

Inflation (% change YOY): 6.8 6.1 10.5 13.1 6.4 7.1


CHINA

Recent economic indicators: 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(a) 2007(b)

GDP (US$bn) (current prices): 1,453.8 1,641.0 1,931.6 2,243.7 2,644.6 3,248.5

GDP PPP (US$bn) (c): 6,105.6 6,859.0 7,768.9 8,854.0 10,147.3 11,606.3

GDP per capita (US$): 1,132 1,270 1,486 1,716 2,013 2,460

GDP per capita PPP (US$) (c): 4,753 5,308 5,977 6,771 7,722 8,788

Real GDP growth (% change YOY): 9.1 10.0 10.1 10.4 11.1 11.4

Current account balance (US$m): 35,422 45,875 68,659 160,818 249,866 379,162

Current account balance (% GDP): 2.4 2.8 3.6 7.2 9.4 11.7

Goods & services exports (% GDP): 25.1 29.6 34.0 37.3 38.1 39.6

Inflation (% change YOY): -0.8 1.2 3.9 1.8 1.5 4.5


source: http://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/fs/


http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2006&ey=2013&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=924%2C536&s=NGDP_RPCH%2CNGDPD%2CNGDPDPC%2CPPPGDP%2CPPPPC&grp=0&a=&pr1.x=100&pr1.y=3

China's GDP of 2007 was $3.43 trillions (released after the IMF April estimate data) not $3.25 trillions like those estimate.

http://finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1012363.shtml


Indonesia population growth rate 1.175%

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/id.html#People

China population growth rate 0.629%

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html#People

snow is red
May 10th, 2008, 05:29 PM
Indonesia and China should work together :)

Let's not talk about comparison.

AceN
May 10th, 2008, 06:54 PM
^^ i agree with u :yes:

those statistical data are sometimes not-realiable-for-some-reason .. some Chinese major cities are far more populated than stated in the statistics.. Changchun, Zibo, Handan, Changsha..etc :)

but it isn't a problem if Indonesia grow faster or vice versa ( i've edited my statement above ) , we have to work together ( with India ) to become the next World Economic Power. PWC predicted that in 2050 China will be the biggest economy, US in the 2nd place, India in the 3rd place , and followed by Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Turkey ( random order, do not know exactly )

Alvin
May 10th, 2008, 07:16 PM
The answer is no...probably not for a generation..

tiger
May 10th, 2008, 10:46 PM
^^ i agree with u :yes:

those statistical data are sometimes not-realiable-for-some-reason .. some Chinese major cities are far more populated than stated in the statistics.. Changchun, Zibo, Handan, Changsha..etc :)

It's true that Chinese cities are always populated than official registered figures but it's nothing to do with per capita figure of the whole country since accordingly the rural area looks always empty than official figure portrays.

MARINHO
May 10th, 2008, 11:56 PM
It will work together with China. Many Indonesian citizens have ancestors from China.

But Indonesia together with any other country cannot tolerate cheap imports from China.

Indonesia and China should work together :)

Let's not talk about comparison.

DJ_Archuleta
June 11th, 2008, 11:16 AM
^^ yes, it's true indeed :)