^^

Berarti disana QUIZ Who Wants to be a Millionaire dijamin gak bakal laku...!!

(sorry OOT)
Gak bakal laku mas...mestinya Who Wants to be a Trillioner !!! :D

@ Kian: bukannya nyalahin detik.. mnurut gw ga mungkin bgt pertumbuhan ekonomi cuma 3.7% pada thn 2009 sedangkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini aja masih diatas 6%.. klo prediksi sekitar 5-6% masih wajar lah..

Indonesia to be self-sufficient in rice, corn in 2009: President


Sukabumi (ANTARA News) - President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said he expected Indonesia to become self-sufficient in rice and corn this year.

"If nothing intervenes, we are going to be self-sufficient in rice and corn this year," Yudhoyono said when attending a Bernas hybrid rice grand harvest at Jerung Nyelap hamlet in Situmekar village, Sukabumi district, on Wednesday.

The head of state said in its efforts to make the country self-sufficient in food, the government was continuing to provide farmers with sufficient land for rice planting, watering facilities, high-yield variety seeds, subsidized fertilizer, and agricultural extension.

"To prevent national development activities from using up all available land, the government is also building agricultural infrastructure facilities, including irrigation works," the president said.

The head of state said domestic rice production had increased dramatically in the past four years , namely from 51 million tons of unhulled rice in 2005 to 54 million tons in 2006, 57 million tons in 2007, and a target of 60 million tons for this year.

"If the target of 60 million tons of unhulled rice is reached this year, it will be a new rice production record in the history of Indonesian agriculture," he said.

Yudhoyono said the government had a high commitment to striving to achieve self-sufficiency in food, rice in particular.

"The global food situation is not safe enough so we should be able to meet our own food needs and if we have more than we need, we can help neighboring countries," Yudhoyono said.

He added that if Indonesia imported rice, it would lose foreign exchange.

"The uncertain world food situation has caused food prices to soar, and if we do not import rice trade will be more lively," the president said.

He said government subsidies in the agricultural sector had also continued to rise from year to year, namely from Rp9 trillion in 2005 to Rp29 trillion in 2008, with the figure for 2009 predicted to rise by Rp33 trillion.

Fertilizer subsidy alone rose from Rp2.5 trillion in 2005 to Rp3 trillion in 2006, Rp15 trillion in 2008, and was expected to total Rp17 trillion in 2008. (*)

@ Kian: bukannya nyalahin detik.. mnurut gw ga mungkin bgt pertumbuhan ekonomi cuma 3.7% pada thn 2009 sedangkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini aja masih diatas 6%.. klo prediksi sekitar 5-6% masih wajar lah..

semuanya tergantung krisis finansial ini, kalo masi berlarut2 yah bisa aja terjadi, china aja diprediksi cuma 5% taon depan..

Mustaqim Adamrah , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Wed, 11/12/2008 10:44 AM | Business

Luxembourg, where AncelorMittal's headquarters are located, is lobbying the Indonesian government to promote that the world's largest steel maker should set up a joint-venture with state steel producer PT Krakatau Steel (KS).

The country made the move Tuesday, after ArcelorMittal's earlier intention to buy a stake in Krakatau was opposed by the latter's management and workers, who said the firm should instead sell its stake in the stock market through an initial public offering (IPO).

"ArcelorMittal is looking for opportunities to invest in Asia and is interested in having a joint venture here in Indonesia," Luxembourg Economic and Foreign Trade Minister Jeannot Kreck* said after a meeting with Indonesian Industry Minister Fahmi Idris.

"I think we will find a way to make this possible," he said.

Ansari Bukhari, the ministry's director general for metal, machinery, textile and miscellaneous industries, said Fahmi in the meeting "supported whatever form of cooperation ArcelorMittal planned to have with Krakatau Steel".

Kreck* is also scheduled to meet State Minister of State Enterprises Sofyan Djalil.

ArcelorMittal, which produced 116 million tons of steel last year or the equivalent of 10 percent of global steel production, has long expressed interest in Krakatau to expand its business in Indonesia.

Under the failed proposed partnership with Krakatau, ArcelorMittal said it would have built two steel factories, in Pasuruan (East Java) and in Banten, with a total investment of US$6 billion.

The Mittal family started their global empire by establishing PT Ispat Indo in Sidoarjo, East Java, in 1976, already in the steelmaking business with an initial production capacity of 60,000 tons a year.

Among the reasons behind the collapse of the plan were rumors suggesting that ArcelorMittal was performing poorly in many countries in which it operates.

Sofyan earlier said the French government had to buy back its shares for 40 million euro ($50.94 million) to save its national steel company from poorly-performing ArcelorMittal.

Kreck* said his visit was also to clarify such rumors. "I think people in Indonesia need to have more information about the way this company is working."

"We never had any problems with this company (as reported). ArcelorMittal is complying with (our) high standards."

The country is trying to boost the production capacity of local steel makers to meet increased domestic demand, which is expected to rise to between 8 million and 10 million tons per year by 2012.

The current domestic demand for steel stands at 6 million tons, with 2 million tons imported.

Four other global steel giants have expressed interest in acquiring a stake in Krakatau, including Australian-based BlueScope Steel and Indian-based Tata Steel.

ArcelorMittal employs over 326,000 workers in more than 60 different countries in Asia, Africa, Europe and the United States.


In the past Indonesian government sold the Indonesian banks, cement companies for a dime. And at the height of the economic crisis they are making another mistake.

Aditya Suharmoko , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Wed, 11/12/2008 10:29 PM | Headlines

As the rupiah slumps, the central bank will limit the purchase of foreign currencies above US$100,000 only to those who can provide underlying transactions.

Through a new regulation to be effective starting Thursday, Bank Indonesia expects the policy to balance demand and supply in the forex market, reduce extreme pressure to the rupiah and minimize forex purchase for speculative means, governor Boediono said in a statement Wednesday.

"The regulation is based on the free foreign exchange system that Indonesia adopts now, in which every citizen is free to own and use foreign currencies, as stipulated on the Law No. 24/1999 on foreign exchange flow and exchange rate system," Boediono
said.

"It is not a foreign exchange control policy or capital control that limits capital flow between countries."

Individual customers and registered Indonesian and foreign companies are still allowed to freely purchase foreign currencies through spot, forward, or derivative transactions, BI said.

However, Indonesia citizens or firms wanting to purchase more than $100,000 in foreign currencies need to provide underlying transactions, such as invoice used to import goods or paying debts.

Meanwhile, foreign parties can purchase that amount of money through spot transactions only.

The regulation is expected to limit speculative purchases of currencies. With the regulation in place, BI expects that banks to be able to detect which customers purchase dollar for
speculative means.

Analyst Farial Anwar has said that the tumbling of rupiah was caused by the free foreign exchange system implemented by Indonesia.

With capital control, Farial said, the government could easier manage the flow of investment-oriented money, or hot money, into and out of Indonesia.

"Hot money is hard to monitor and control, and the money enters only the financial sector, not the real sector. It makes us black and blue, while only 2 million people out of 220 million
population engaging in the financial sector.

"If the rupiah stays at the current level for a long time, it will affect the state financing and make the people suffer," he said.

On Wednesday, the rupiah fell 1.6 percent to 11,485 per dollar as of 4:10 p.m. in Jakarta. The currency reached 11,700 Wednesday, approaching the 11,900 it reached on Oct. 28, thr
lowest since 2001.

"Investors are switching from the capital market to the foreign exchange market to compensate their losses, thus the dollar strengthens. Investors say it's a safe haven," Farial
said.

According to Bloomberg, the rupiah has weakened by 14 percent in the past month, making it the worst performer among Asia's 10 most traded currencies.

Nah karena nggak ada yang jawab/diskusikan ... maka akan saya coba paparkan salah satu "Teori" sbb:

Beda dengan negara lain dimana nilai mata uangnya selalu dikaitkan dengan "fundamental" ekonomi negara ybs ... maka khusus untuk Indonesia (IDR) kasusnya amat beda ...

Berdasarkan data "empiris" ... Nilai tukar IDR terhadap USD selalu dikaitkan dengan ketersediaan USD di pasar .. sedangkan ketersediaan USD selalu berkaitan dengan Cash Inlow maupun Cash Outflow dari pemain asing di sini ...

Nilai IDR cenderung menguat jika terjadi Cash Inflow akibat mereka menjual USD untuk mendapatkan IDR .. sedangkan Nilai IDR melemah (seperti saat ini) karena adanya Cash Outflow (mereka membeli USD) ...

Berbeda dengan negara lain .. peran BI (selaku bank sentral) amat terbatas dalam melakukan intervensi nilai tukar IDR kita mengingat jumlah cadangan devisanya yang amat terbatas ...

Mengapa cadangan devisa China demikian besarnya ? sebab China selama ini mewajibkan eksportirnya menyerahkan seluruh valas yang diterima ke Bank Sentralnya .. Sedangkan kita (BI) nggak pernah melakukan itu ... Selama ini hasil surplus perdagangan berupa valas lebih banyak diparkir di Singapura atau negara lain .. bukan kembali ke Indonesia ...

Kombinasi dari Rezim Devisa Bebas (yang sebebas-bebasnya) + Ketidak-percayaan eksportir untuk mengembalikan valas hasil ekspornya ke Indonesia + Cash Inflow/Outflow Pemain/Investor Asing + Jumlah Cadangan Devisa yang tebatas ---> itulah yang selama ini menjadi penyebab utama "Gonjang-Ganjing" IDR yang aneh selama ini ....

Bukannya gak mau menjawab, tp emang gw gak punya kapasitas yg cukup memadai untuk mendiskusikan. Maklum, orang lulusan teknik yg masih awam mengenai ekonomi makro (tp tertarik utk belajar itu). :D But anyway, thank you kakilangit atas penerangannya. :okay:

@ Kian: bukannya nyalahin detik.. mnurut gw ga mungkin bgt pertumbuhan ekonomi cuma 3.7% pada thn 2009 sedangkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini aja masih diatas 6%.. klo prediksi sekitar 5-6% masih wajar lah..

Kalo gw bilang ada tipe orang pesimistis, optimistis, moderat, dsb... Sama juga kayak pengamat. Kalo menurut gw 3,7% adalah angka yg pesimistis. Ya wajar karena rata2 pengamat itu biasanya orang pesimis. Wong cuman mengamati, bukan sebagai pelaku... (sebagian pengamat lho)

^^ yup... kemarin ini masih sempet baca ada yang bilang 5 sekian persen, trus terakhir yah yang 3.7% ini...

Tapi bener kata gliazurra, kalau krisisnya trus berlarut2 trus yah ga mustahil juga sih terjadi. Kalau 2008 kan memang Indonesia belum terimbas secara langsung, secara juga tinggal 2 bulan. Tapi kalau 2009 kan disebut2 memang puncaknya krisis ini yang berimbas di Indo....?

^^ pesimistis nya 3,7 %, moderatnya sekitar 4-5 %, optimistic nya > 5% :)

@ kaki_langit : thanx buat penjelasannya !! sharing2 info tentang makro ekon lagi yak..maklum, g jg anak teknik yang nyambi belajar jadi ekonom.hahahahahaha...

Kalau insight dari gw, selama Pemilu 2009 aman, yg kalah legowo, yg menang tau diri, politik stabil dan gak ada yg cari muka, dan selama domestic market masih tetap prospektif / bahkan tumbuh sekecil apapun...

InsyaAllah ekonomi Indonesia tetap tumbuh diatas 5%.

Coba simak beritanya baik-baik ...

Tidak adanya kontrol devisa (akibat rezim devisa bebas yang kebablasan) selama ini mengakibatkan prospek ekonomi Indonesia yang beberapa minggu lalu masih "Bagus" sekarang berubah menjadi "Mengkhawatirkan" ... Apalagi jika nilai tukar IDR terhadap USD terus melemah ... Ternyata BI yang independen nggak menjamin situasi moneter lebih baik (lihat aja kasus Indover)..

Indonesia: The global barometer

JAKARTA, Nov 13 - If you want to know whether developing countries will keep the world out of deep recession or will drive it further into the hole, there are few better barometers than Indonesia.

Now that Barack Obama, a former resident, has been elected president of the United States, this lower-middle income democracy with 250-million people, an open economy and high exposure to global financial storms may get the attention it merits.

If nothing major comes out of the meeting this weekend of the Group of 20 developing and developed economies in Washington that significantly helps the likes of Indonesia, expect the global situation to get worse.

Questions will arise over whether open markets and the private sector will continue to be the norm in Asia, the region that has most benefited from them. Will this crisis be just a blip in the chart of prosperity, or will global recession push Indonesia back to authoritarianism and economic nationalism, with high tariffs, currency controls and state ownership?

Just a few weeks ago, Indonesia was sitting comfortably. Tree-crop and mineral-export prices were high, the rice harvest was excellent, badly needed spending on infrastructure was picking up, the banking system was
liquid, the fiscal position strong, the current account in surplus, internal politics were stable and the government's technocratic economic ministers were winning international praise. Oil and food price inflation
were abating and Indonesia was expecting to benefit from the shift of light industries out of southern China.

Now, not only has the external environment changed dramatically, but impeccably conservative economic management is proving little defence against global forces. Prices for exports such as palm oil, copper and
coffee have fallen 60 per cent, as much because of the bottlenecks in global trade finance as from a collapse in underlying demand.

This may be temporary, but it has added to fears about the currency as other sources of foreign earnings - labor-intensive manufactures, high-end handicrafts, tourism and worker remittances - are also threatened.

In theory, this populous, resource-rich country with a relatively low ratio of foreign trade to GDP should be able to face the situation with more equanimity than most. Years of tight fiscal policy since the Asian crisis of the 1990s ought to give room now for large budget deficits to sustain domestic demand in the face of an export slump. Indonesia should be able to spend more without causing alarm about its long-term credit worthiness. But with no foreign exchange controls the country is subject to volatile, ill-informed markets. The government cannot appear to flinch from tight fiscal and monetary policies.

The global system is forcing Indonesia into policies that exaggerate rather than counter business cycles, restricting spending when stimulus is needed. While the United States and the European Union, with their
reserve currency status, now have leeway to run even bigger budget deficits to try to stave off recession after years of consumption excess, developing countries, despite years of restraint and current account surpluses are constrained from spending.

It is not enough for the rich nations and China, with its $1.9 trillion in currency reserves - to stimulate their own economies, as Beijing is now promising to do. Unless the United States, Europe, Japan and China, either directly or through the IMF and World Bank, give assurances of support to well-run economies, the likes of Indonesia are destined for recession too.

The US Federal Reserve has helped South Korea, Brazil, Singapore and Mexico with swap arrangements that stabilised their currencies. But swaps and longer-term lending commitments are badly needed by others. The World Bank alone says it could use $100 billion - still small by the standards of what the United States and Europe have been throwing at their financial systems.

The effects of global events on employment in Indonesia may not be felt until well into next year. But 2009 is an election year in this diverse democracy, so the timing of a slowdown may determine whether President
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono survives in office beyond July.

Most voters live on Java rather than the islands producing export commodities, so the trade impact on them will be delayed. But it will be a close race and victory for Yudhoyono's main opponent, Megawati Sukarnoputri, daughter of independence leader Sukarno, could lead to a shift in policies. Although her views are hazy, she tends to the economic nationalism of her father. Even Yudhoyono might find that irresistible if open markets fail to deliver.

Unless the nations meeting in Washington understand and act on the predicament of countries like Indonesia, there is little reason for optimism that the potential of developing countries can be harnessed to pull the global economy out of recession. - International Herald Tribune

^^ BI kan mulai kemarin menerapkan aturan devisa baru, beritanya ada tuh di Kompas pp.19 hari ini

guys, i heard euro has reached Rp15,600?? that's crazy man... whatever happen with "indonesian-economy-is-stronger-than-ever" idea?? self denying??

^^ Rumah sudah kebakar ... baru dibeli alat pemadam kebakarannya ...

Sebenarnya situasi ini sudah diramalkan sebelumnya ... malah pihak ADB dan World Bank pernah menganjurkan BI meningkatkan cadangan devisanya hingga min. USD100.0 Bn untuk mengantisipasi jika terjadi "External Shock" (keluarnya dana asing yang bersifat spekulatif secara tiba-tiba akibat gejolak keuangan global) seperti sekarang ini ... Tapi usulin ini dicuekin aja ama BI ...

Juga usulan dari ekonom lokal untuk membatasi transaksi valas (seperti yang dilakukan oleh BI saat ini) untuk menghindari transaksi yang sifatnya "spekulatif" juga dicuekin ama BI ..

Gue takutnya ... jika nantinya SUN kita "default" di pasar atau Bank BUMN mengalami masalah yang serius maka akan mengakibatkan rating Indonesia "Anjlok" .... akibatnya krisis bisa nggak terkendali lagi nantinya .....

^^ BI kan mulai kemarin menerapkan aturan devisa baru, beritanya ada tuh di Kompas pp.19 hari ini

jadi BI menetapkan aturan devisa baru yg kayak gimana? kalo yg kayak di china berarti besar kemungkinan cadangan devisa indonesia akan meningkat drastis dong.. coba aja liat china yg menganut sistem devisa skrg.. devisa mereka berlipat2 ganda dlm periode waktu yg cukup singkat :)

^^ Rumah sudah kebakar ... baru dibeli alat pemadam kebakarannya ...

Sebenarnya situasi ini sudah diramalkan sebelumnya ... malah pihak ADB dan World Bank pernah menganjurkan BI meningkatkan cadangan devisanya hingga min. USD100.0 Bn untuk mengantisipasi jika terjadi "External Shock" (keluarnya dana asing yang bersifat spekulatif secara tiba-tiba akibat gejolak keuangan global) seperti sekarang ini ... Tapi usulin ini dicuekin aja ama BI ...

Juga usulan dari ekonom lokal untuk membatasi transaksi valas (seperti yang dilakukan oleh BI saat ini) untuk menghindari transaksi yang sifatnya "spekulatif" juga dicuekin ama BI ..

Gue takutnya ... jika nantinya SUN kita "default" di pasar atau Bank BUMN mengalami masalah yang serius maka akan mengakibatkan rating Indonesia "Anjlok" .... akibatnya krisis bisa nggak terkendali lagi nantinya .....

pertanyaannya skrg apa dgn mengganti sistem cadangan devisa, indonesia bisa langsung selamat dari krisis dan apakah cadangan devisa indonesia bisa bertambah drastis seperti layaknya di china??

Minister: Indonesia does not need IMF short-term lending facility


Special Report: Global Financial Crisis

JAKARTA, Nov. 13 (Xinhua) -- Indonesia does not need to tap the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for its short-term lending facility, since the country's debt was low, Minister of State for National Development Planning Paskah Suzetta said here Thursday.

The minister said that currently the ratio of Indonesia's debt to gross domestic product was below 30 percent. "So we do not need to use the IMF facility," he told reporters at Mulia Hotel here.

The IMF last month introduced a short-term lending facility to help countries to tide over temporary liquidity shortage.

Recently, the rupiah dropped sharply to nearly 12,000 rupiah against one U.S. dollar, which leads the country's central bank to intervene so as to boost the falling currency. As a result, the state reserve declined to a 17-month low of 50.8 billion U.S. dollars at the end of October, down from 57.10 billion U.S. dollars at the end of September.

The minister said that the problem facing the country now was how to maintain the current level of state budget deficit. "What we can do is to issue bonds," he said.

Indonesia expects its economy to accelerate at a slower pace next year between 5.5 - 6.1 percent following the global economic crisis. It also expects the deficit at 1.3 percent of the GDP and rupiah's value against the dollar to reach 9,500.

Indonesian government on Wednesday bought back its debts worth at 29.5 billion U.S. dollar to stabilize the bond prices.

The biggest Southeast Asia economy paid back all its loan to the IMF in 2005, four years ahead of schedule.

Indonesia to export rice in 2009


CANBERRA: Indonesia will be able to export rice next year for the first time in 16 years, helping to ease a global food shortage, Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda said on Wednesday during a visit to Australia.

“Indonesia, in the past 16 years, for the first time will produce enough rice for itself and a little surplus, and with the expected (extra) rice, around five percent this year, will export rice next year,” he told reporters at Australia’s parliament.

Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous nation, normally imports some rice but officials have said it may not need to this year as production should be sufficient to meet domestic demand and raising the prospect of being able to export. reuters

...Although her views are hazy...

hahahaha...even Herald Tribune said so :lol:

------------------

Gimana nasib Bank Century ? kenceng rumornya kalo mereka diisukan kekeringan likuiditas. kmarin siang, sesi II sampe di suspen.

Asia's shining example

Tim Colebatch

http://images.theage.com.au/2008/08/04/173713/wr_sl_oped_spooner-420x0.jpg
Illustration: Spooner

SRI Mulyani Indrawati could teach her APEC colleagues something about structural reform. In a society investors judge as one of the most corrupt in the world, Indonesia's award-winning Finance Minister is spearheading a radical, unorthodox campaign to wipe out corruption.

When APEC ministers and officials talk about structural reform - as they are doing in Melbourne this week - the point of it often is as clear as mud. When Sri Mulyani talks about her war on corruption, it's as clear as the midday sun over Java.

Last September she launched a campaign to clean up the Supreme Court, the audit office, and her own ministry - including the tax office and the customs service, long seen as havens for officials on the take.

Her tactics were not mere exhortation. At the Customs Office she transferred all 1300 staff, replaced them with 800 new officers, who were paid roughly four times as much as their predecessors - and told them that if they took bribes, they'd be put on trial.

"If people are not receiving salaries of a realistic level, it is impossible to ask them to work properly," Sri Mulyani explains. The new salaries, she says, were still below private sector pay, but "eliminated the most basic distortions". Without that, she says, she could not have begun.

"I told them: 'If, after this, you act corruptly, I will not apologise for punishing you with the harshest of punishments.' "

She was not expecting an overnight miracle, but concedes it hurt when some months later, acting on a tip-off, the Corruption Eradication Commission raided the customs office at Jakarta's port, Tanjung Priok, and found envelope after envelope of banknotes stuffed in filing cabinets, office drawers, even down officers' socks. That haul found about $60,000 - some of it in Australian dollars.

Sri Mulyani apologised to Indonesians, but does not concede defeat. "Was I expecting that after six months, everybody would become clean?" she asks. "Certainly not. I have 62,000 people working for me. Will all the judges immediately become good? No, this is going to be a continuous battle, which leaders must wage constantly."

Transparency International's 2007 chart ranks Indonesia among the 40 most corrupt countries in the world, as judged by investors. In transparency, Indonesia ranks with Russia as equal 143rd of 180 countries. To give you an idea of how bad that is, China and India are equal 72nd, Malaysia 43rd and Singapore equal 4th.

Corruption is widely seen as a brake on Indonesia's ability to attract foreign investment, and hence, growth. The OECD's recent report on Indonesia - another first for the OECD under the new leadership of Angel Gurria - notes that its growth rate has picked up to 6% plus, which is not enough to reduce poverty rapidly, and Indonesia lags behind Asia's leaders in attracting foreign investment.

Sri Mulyani says she would rather have solid sustainable growth than a world-beating pace. One of the Government's top priorities, she says, is to stop illegal logging on Sumatra and Kalimantan, and reverse Indonesia's deforestation by planting more forest than is cleared. She likes the Garnaut report's idea of Australia allowing firms to offset carbon emissions by preserving forests in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.

A frequent visitor here, Sri Mulyani has long been seen as a rising star. The daughter of an academic in Semarang, Central Java's biggest city, she studied at the elite University of Indonesia, becoming a protege of Widjojo Nitisastro, head of the "Berkeley mafia" of free-market economists who shaped Soeharto's very successful reforms of the '60s and '70s. After postgraduate studies in the US, she returned to head a think tank at her old university, married and had three children, became an economic adviser to former president Abdurrahman Wahid, then went back to the US and became the International Monetary Fund's executive director for East Asia and Pacific, until President Yudhoyono summoned her to join his cabinet.

She was minister for development planning when the tsunami struck Aceh. Amid the tragedy, she saw the opportunity to rebuild not only infrastructure but institutions. Her ally, Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, another on Jakarta's short list of notoriously clean ministers, was put in charge of Aceh reconstruction, and revolutionised the system by appointing a small staff, paying them something like private sector wages, and insisting that all accounts must go to the Finance Ministry to reduce the scope for corruption.

Soon Sri Mulyani was Finance Minister, tackling tax reform, introducing a new foreign investment law, reforming state finances to make them more transparent, reducing fuel subsidies - and tackling corruption. For two years in a row she has been named Finance Minister of the Year by specialist magazines: Euromoney (2006) and The Banker (2007).

When heads rolled recently at Bank Indonesia - after the revelation that it had paid $3.7 million of state funds in 2003-04 in bribes to MPs to pass new banking laws - chief economics minister Boediono took charge of the central bank, and Sri Mulyani took on his job as well as her own.

The Jakarta Post, not always easy to please, applauded her as the best choice for the job. "She has proved her technical skills in managing the macro-economy," it said, "and shown courage, consistency and impeccable integrity in treading the messy politics of development in a newly democratic system like Indonesia."

Online celebrity site TokohIndonesia.com describes her as "a prima donna, smart, attractive and popular". But prima donnas don't last. Sri Mulyani has rolled with the punches and hung in there to keep reform going. She can tell Wayne Swan how to do it.

Tim Colebatch is economics editor.

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/asias-shining-example-20080804-3pw6.html?page=1

G-20 Adopsi Usulan Indonesia

Agenda utama menyelesaikan krisis finansial global

JAKARTA -- Usulan Indonesia mengenai pembentukan mekanisme dukungan pembangunan bagi negara-negara berkembang dalam mengatasi krisis keuangan global mendapat tanggapan positif. Kelompok negara-negara yang tergabung dalam Group-20 (G-20) setuju dengan pandangan Indonesia dan mengadopsinya dalam komunike G-20.

''Anggota G20 mendukung usulan Indonesia tentang mekanisme support pendanaan pembangunan di negara-negara berkembang yang berfundamental baik, tapi terimbas dari tidak berfungsinya pasar akibat dampak krisis keuangan,'' kata Menkeu, Sri Mulyani, Senin (10/11).

Krisis keuangan global saat ini, kata Menkeu, menyebabkan keringnya pendanaan di negara-negara berkembang. Pasar ekuitas dan kredit internasional tidak lagi berfungsi.

Kondisi itu diperparah kecenderungan mengalirnya dana investor (capital inflow) ke negara-negara maju. ''Diperlukan dukungan pendanaan bagi negara-negara berkembang guna meminimalisasi dampak krisis,'' katanya.

Untuk keperluan itu, G-20 memberi mandat kepada Bank Dunia dan lembaga donor lainnya agar meningkatkan kapasitas pengucuran dana. Sedangkan Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) mendapat tugas mereformasi prosedur pencairan utang dengan menciptakan instrumen likuiditas untuk mempercepat pengucuran pinjaman. Negara-negara yang memiliki rekam jejak kebijakan yang baik dapat memperoleh utang itu tanpa syarat yang berbelit.

Sri Mulyani menjadi salah satu peserta pada pertemuan para menkeu dan gubernur bank sentral anggota G-20 di Sao Paulo, Brasil. Pertemuan teknis itu menjadi awalan bagi KTT G-20 di Washington, 14-16 November 2008.

Mengenai arsitektur keuangan internasional, G-20 menyepakati perlunya mereformasi Bretton Woods Institutions secara menyeluruh. Dengan maksud agar lebih mencerminkan konstelasi ekonomi dan keuangan global di mana peran emerging markets semakin signifikan. Sistem Bretton Woods pada 1994 menjadi cikal bakal berdirinya Bank Dunia dan IMF.

Selain itu, perlu kerja sama di antara anggota G-20 untuk menangani krisis secara cepat dan terarah. Tidak hanya agar kepercayaan pasar kembali pulih, tapi juga memperbaiki stabilitas keuangan dan menormalisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi global.

G-20 sepakat bahwa penanganan krisis harus diimbangi dengan upaya memitigasi dampak sosial, khususnya di negara-negara berkembang maupun negara-negara berpendapatan rendah.

Sementara itu, di Kantor Presiden di Jakarta, Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono mendengarkan paparan tim panelis ekonomi guna mematangkan pendapat Indonesia dalam KTT G-20 di Washington. Tim ini terdiri atas menteri-menteri ekonomi, ekonom, dan pengusaha.

''G-20 agendanya sudah jelas, yaitu bagaimana membuat tindakan bersama dari negara-negara di dunia untuk menyelesaikan krisis finansial global,'' kata juru bicara Presiden, Andi Mallarangeng.

Ada tiga poin, ungkap Andi, yang akan disampaikan Presiden dalam KTT G-20. Ketiganya adalah melakukan stabilisasi keuangan dunia, menggairahkan sektor riil, dan restrukturisasi sistem keuangan dunia. Dalam forum itu, Presiden Yudhoyono bakal mewakili Asia.

Salah satu anggota tim panelis, Aviliani, mengatakan, Indonesia akan mengusung isu pengelolaan dana bagi pengeluaran global (global expenditure support fund). Itu isu utama (Indonesian Paper) karena diperkirakan budget 2009 ini banyak negara yang bermasalah, sehingga sangat membutuhkan dukungan. ''Karena itu, inginnya dibentuk lembaga baru. una/wed/ant

Konsensus G-20
- Mengembalikan kepercayaan pasar terhadap sistem keuangan.
- Upaya bersama mengatasi kelangkaan likuiditas global.
- Mereformasi arsitektur keuangan global yang lebih mencerminkan keterwakilan negara-negara berkembang.
- Mekanisme pengawasan yang lebih baik bagi sektor keuangan.

G-20 adalah kumpulan 19 negara dengan perekonomian terbesar di dunia di tambah Uni Eropa. Anggotanya terdiri dari Argentina, Australia, Brasil, Kanada, Cina, Perancis, Jerman, India, Indonesia, Italia, Jepang, Meksiko, Rusia, Arab Saudi, Afrika Selatan, Korea Selatan, Turki, Inggris, AS, dan Uni Eropa.

http://republika.co.id/koran/0/13134.html

Gimana nasib Bank Century ? kenceng rumornya kalo mereka diisukan kekeringan likuiditas. kmarin siang, sesi II sampe di suspen.

Berdasarkan informasi dari "Treasury" .... Permainan derivatif valasnya terlalu berani dan juga posisi NOP (net open position) nggak dikelola secara baik .....

FYI, sebenarnya batasan NOP terhadap Modal Bank udah diatur oleh BI ... tapi kenapa bank ini masih berani melanggarnya ?

Indonesia Optimistic Economic Growth Will Reach 8 PCT in 2009

- NOV 12, 2008

JAKARTA, Nov 12 Asia Pulse - The government is optimistic that national economic growth will reach 8 per cent in 2009 and remain at this level until 2011, Vice President Jusuf Kalla said.

"We believe that if nothing adverse happens, economic growth next year will reach 8 per cent and remain at this level until 2011," the vice president said in his keynote speech at a UNDP meeting here on Tuesday.

The vice president said an economic growth rate of 8 per cent could be achieved with hard work and the development of a system that could reduce fuel oil subsidies.

"Some 30 percent of the state budget is used to subsidize fuel oil consumption at home.

"Therefore, if we are able to develop a system and technology for development of vegetable oil that could reduce dependence on fossil fuels, the subsidies can be cut," he said.

The vice president expressed hope that the United States and Europe would be able to overcome their financial crisis, so that businesses in the two areas would regain their growth and Indonesia could boost its exports to the two regions.

"The current global financial crisis has affected 50 per cent of industries in the country because of the drop in demand for Indonesian goods in the United States and Europe.

"Therefore, we hope that European countries and the United States will soon be freed from the crisis," Kalla said.

According to the vice president, Indonesia's economic growth had improved from year to year so that it reached 6.4 per cent after the 1998 crisis.

"After 10 years of crisis, we were able to get out of the crisis and improve our economic growth so that it reached 6.4 per cent. This is good for us," he added.

In the meantime,Bank Indonesia (BI/central bank) Deputy Governor Hartadi A Sarwono said last week that Indonesia's economic growth in 2008 was estimated to eventually stand at 6.1-6.2 percent.

"We estimate it is still possible for the overall economic growth rate this year to reach 6.1-6.2 per cent," Sarwono said.

Cadangan Devisa akan Tambah 2 Miliar Dolar


JAKARTA--MI:>/b> Gubernur Bank Indonesia Boediono mengatakan pencairan pinjaman oleh pemerintah pada Desember akan menambah cadangan devisa Desember 2008 sebesar dua miliar dolar AS.

"Cadangan devisa kan turun naik. Kita akan mendapatkan tambahan dua miliar dolar AS pada Desember dari pencairan pinjaman oleh pemerintah," katanya di Jakarta, Jumat.

Dengan pencairan itu diharapkan bisa mendukung cadangan devisa yang saat ini mencapai 4,5 kali impor dan utang luar negri.

Sementara itu, posisi cadangan devisa pada akhir Oktober 2008 telah mencapai 50,58 miliar dolar AS turun 6,528 miliar dolar AS dibandingkan bulan September 2008 yang mencapai 57,108 miliar dolar AS atau penurunan paling tajam sepanjang 2008.

Sejak Juli 2008, cadangan devisa terus merosot sekitar 10 miliar dolar AS. Akhir Juli 2008, cadangan devisa mencapai 60,563 miliar dolar AS tertinggi selama 2008 ini. Agustus, cadangan devisa turun menjadi 58,358 miliar dolar. Akhir September, kembali merosot 1,15 miliar dolar AS menjadi 57,108 miliar dolar AS.

Penurunan cadangan devisa salah satunya digunakan untuk intervensi rupiah agar tidak bergejolak secara dalam.

Masih mending pertumbuhan 3.7% .... waktu Krisis Asia dulu kan pertumbuhan ekonomi kita Minus :nuts: ....

Indonesia banking sector solid, growth to slow - c.bank


JAKARTA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Indonesia's central bank said on Friday the country's $220-billion banking system "remains steady and solid" despite a scare after a small bank failed to settle interbank payments.

However, the monetary authority warned that growth in Southeast Asia's biggest economy next year will be far less than its forecast of 6.5 percent in line with with the weakening global economy.

"I would to reiterate again that the country's banking sector remains steady and solid, and is capable of serving the people at its best," Boediono told a news conference.

"Bank Indonesia is ready to meet the demand of cash from the banking system to meet customers' demand. Bank Indonesia has also reinstated the short-term facilities to support the need for liquidity from the banking sector, especially under special circumstances," he said, without elaborating further.

The central bank said on Thursday a small lender, PT Bank Century Tbk, was having problems in settling interbank payments due to technical problems.

Bank Indonesia said operations in Bank Century had returned to normal on Friday and there was no threat to the banking sector.

Separately, Senior Deputy Governor Miranda Goeltom said economic growth in Indonesia would be lower than expected.

"Our economic growth forecast of 6.5 percent (for 2009) is no longer realistic. It will be far slower than that," Goeltom told the news conference.

Last week Bank Indonesia said it would be tough for the country's economic growth to top 6 percent next year given current global economic conditions.

Indonesia's quarterly economic growth has been averaging about 6 percent since the end of 2006 and the government is targeting full-year growth of 6.4 percent this year, despite the global credit crisis, in a bid to help reduce poverty and unemployment.

Masih mending pertumbuhan 3.7% .... waktu Krisis Asia dulu kan pertumbuhan ekonomi kita Minus :nuts: ....
itu bukan pertumbuhan donk..tapi kontraksi :D

Indonesia - why there is no recession in the world's leading Muslim economy

Following the election of US President-elect Barack Obama there is likely to be a slow recovery in confidence in the United States financial and banking system. A recession is unavoidable in the US and EU, but with only a downturn in developing countries. This crisis of confidence in the Western banking and financial system comes during the dying days of the most unpopular American presidency in living memory. Financial mismanagement and weak regulatory frameworks have devastated the US economy, making the rich richer and the poor poorer. Two million Americans may lose their homes. Millions in the US and Europe will lose their jobs.

Yet the devastating legacy of the Bush presidency leaves open great opportunities for Indonesia, the Muslim world and the developing countries of the South.

Indonesia can play a key role in leading the Muslim world toward economic recovery, and help minimize the impact of global recession.

First, by managing its national economy to maintain growth, demand, imports and exports. The nominal Gross Domestic Product for 2008 is projected at $547 billion. Indonesia is already in the top 20 economies of the world.

Indonesia is currently overtaking Belgium and Sweden. It will soon overtake Turkey, the Netherlands and Austria as it enormous size, resources and population come into play. It is a strong candidate to join the top 10 economies in the world within two decades.

Second, by mobilizing investment for oil, gas, energy projects, biofuels, infrastructure (roads, railways, ports), manufacturing and retailing sectors. It needs over $40 billion for electricity alone, to finance an additional 40,000 MWe of power by 2025. Indonesia will become a nuclear power, and plans four power stations. Total foreign investment needed overall during the next 15 years exceeds $100 billion.

Investment is still coming from the US and EU (including Eastern Europe) but increasingly from the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), and also from Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries like Canada, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and from Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states (including Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand). Investment is also coming in greater volume from the Gulf Arab states, Israel and South Africa.

Third, Indonesia can help lead Muslim economies by using its economic size and prestige as a member of the United Nations Security Council to join Brazil, Russia, India, China and Southern countries to bring about changes in policies and in the balance of power in world organizations dealing with trade, finance and development, especially the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade Organization (WTO).

Indonesia has major reservations about the IMF following its own experience in 1998. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said that the world should not slip into creating a shadow world economic government run by an inner IMF council. Indonesia is also tired of being kept on the fringes in the WTO.

Asia and Southern countries want a new deal. Muslim countries collectively represent an increasingly important source of capital, while Western liquidity has partly dried up. Muslim economies represent important investment sources as well as investment destinations. The collective size of Muslim economies represents significant demand for Western goods and services, relatively unaffected by the recession in the West.

Indonesia can still deploy export credits, sovereign funds, Islamic finance and other non-traditional financial sources, such as environmental funds and carbon credits. Despite the global downturn Indonesia is still pulling in some bank finance.

A $140 million syndicated loan for Excelcomindo for telecommunications expansion was announced recently. Low-cost airline Lion Air is buying 12 Boeing 737 planes even though the required local cash contribution for the last four has risen to 30 percent. Lion Air will use its own cash to carry on expanding. St. Miguel Corp. of the Philippines is competing with a US-led consortium to clinch a $1.3 billion coal supply deal, to buy PT Bumi Resources from Bakri Brothers. There is money here and money coming in.

Standard and Poors is holding Indonesian credit ratings stable and its credit rating may even be raised. Singapore could slip into recession but Indonesia will not, and the reason is mostly sheer size plus improved financial and economic management.

Indonesia is in a key position as the largest Muslim country in the world with a population of 230 million and a land area of 1.9 million square kilometers.

The Indonesian Gross Domestic Product was $843.7 billion in terms of purchasing power and $432.9 billion in terms of official exchange rates in 2007. It has fixed foreign investment of $57.6 billion and holds $9 billion of investment in other countries. It has more than 3,500 millionaires holding over $100 million each, of whom 70 percent live in Jakarta.

Its current economic growth is 6.5 percent and may fall below 6 percent in 2009 due to reduced exports. Government will stimulate growth using the national budget which already reached $100 billion in 2008. Government is confident it can hold growth at 6 percent. The World Bank has set aside a $2 billion standby loan for 2009 only to be triggered if growth falls below 5.8 percent.

In 2007 Indonesian exports were $118 billion and imports $86 billion, a trade surplus of $32 billion, and foreign exchange reserves as of this month were $50 billion.

Indonesia has already lost some jobs in sectors like textiles. Some exports to the US and Europe fell in the fourth quarter. The stock market, government bonds and the national currency also fell in value during the global financial crash in the first week of October.

The government launched a securities buy-back program spearheaded by state-owned enterprises and defended the rupiah currency by intervening in the currency market via the Bank of Indonesia. The government also took steps to increase liquidity and focused on getting inflation under control and on maintaining growth.

The government has increased guarantees on personal deposits to 2 billion rupiahs ($190,000), which covers 100 percent of deposits for over 99.7 percent of 81 million bank accounts.

Indonesian banks are strong, with adequate reserves, low non-performing loans and almost no exposure to subprime losses. Only a small group of investors lost money on Lehman-related instruments purchased via international banks.

The Indonesian inflation rate is declining from a high of 12 percent to maybe 9 percent by January with reductions planned to between 9 percent and 7 percent for the rest of 2009. The bank rate is being stabilized at 9.5 percent after six months of consecutive rises. It will be held for a while and then reduced to 7.5 percent in 2009.

Indonesian bonds are recovering from their recent nose-dive and the stock market is stabilizing. Local economists say the stock market was over-valued and more normal values and returns will be restored as part of the local share trading cycle.

The government is now focusing on trying to mobilize its massive $115 billion dollar national budget for 2009, up from $100 billion in 2008, to push projects and overall spending forward and help substitute local demand for declines in exports, with every hope of keeping economic growth for 2009 at between 5.5 and 6.0 percent.

Despite the collapse of the Bank of Indonesia subsidiary Indover Bank in the Netherlands, there is no sovereign default. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and the new central bank governor, Boediono, have taken a stand against previous mismanagement.

In contrast to the kid-glove treatment of failed bankers and financial managers in the West, who took imprudent and possibly illegal risks, the Indonesian government is directing the work of its Corruption Eradication Commission and Corruption Court against corrupt central bankers and parliamentarians who took bribes.

The Indonesian government also says it will pursue legally those who misused its name and dragged it into the Indover collapse, by implying there were sovereign guarantees backing Indover borrowing when there were none. It also intends to pursue allegations of short trading and fraudulent practices in the stock exchange.

Indonesia lost 10 years as a result of the 1998 banking crash when it put its fate in the hands of the IMF, which initially failed to understand local strengths and exaggerated local weaknesses. An historical photo shows President Suharto sitting at his desk, signing his own political death-warrant while the IMF representative stood over him, as he signed the IMF agreement.

A lot has changed between the Asian banking crash of 1998 and the Wall Street crash of 2008. The economic balance of power in the world has changed and the balance of global power has shifted to the South and East. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown recognized this when he urged the Gulf states and the G20 to help stabilize the world economy.

In the 1998 bank crash Indonesia had no freedom and no choice. This time in 2008 Indonesia has freedom and is stronger, and can chose to tread its own path. Hopefully its greater strength and determination will inspire Muslim and Southern countries not to panic in the face of recession in the West, but to work together to avoid the spread of recession to the South and to build and strengthen a new world economic order.

I'm wondering where do u got that articles ??? :|

I'm wondering where do u got that articles ??? :|

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=97616

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=97616

thank you mimi for providing the source :)

The G20: Who is there and how desperate are they?


Argentina - $150bn public debt

Attending: Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, president
Argentina last month decided to nationalise its 10 largest private pension funds, taking $30bn of assets into public ownership. Shares then lost a fifth of their value in two days. Argentina defaulted on its debts in 2001 and investors fear it may do so again.
Desperation rating: Five stars
Australia - $141bn public debt

Kevin Rudd, prime minister
Australia has eliminated net public debt but runs a gross one of about 15% of GDP. Tough regulation meant its banks had little exposure to the US subprime mortgage market but the fall in commodity prices is hurting. Australia could face recession next year.
Desperation rating: Three stars
Brazil - $590bn public debt

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, president
Brazil's economy is growing at 5% this year but is expected to slow sharply next year. Central bank is making credit available to help firms boost sales and it has intervened in the market to meet demand for the US dollar.
Desperation rating: Three stars
Canada - $900bn public debt

Stephen Harper, prime minister
The Bank of Canada warned that growth would hit zero next year. Weaker oil prices and lower US demand are hurting Canada. Last month, it guaranteed bank lending in a move that could leave the taxpayer liable for up to US$175bn.
Desperation rating: Four stars
China - $580bn public debt

Hu Jintao, president
China is taking a big spending $586bn approach as industrial growth hits a seven-year low. As holder of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves ($1,900bn) China is under pressure to aid global finances but stands to be the biggest winner from the crisis.
Desperation rating: Three stars
France - $1.63tr public debt

Nicolas Sarkozy, president
The French economy grew by 0.1% between July and September but recession may only be temporarily avoided. Paris has made a €320bn guarantee for bank lending and a $40bn fund to recapitalise banks. Sarkozy has announced the creation of a fund to protect French companies from foreign "predators".
Desperation rating: Four stars
Germany - $2.07tr public debt

Angela Merkel, chancellor
Europe's largest economy officially entered recession this week after GDP shrank by 0.5%, the second quarter of decline. Germany has seen exports plunge. It is providing €400bn in guarantees for bank lending, plus a further €100bn to recapitalise its banks.
Desperation rating: Four stars
India - $637bn public debt

Manmohan Singh, prime minister
India is being tipped as a key player in helping bolster the global economy. Growth is expected to be 7.5% this year, down from 9% and disguising the slowdown in the industrial sector. Along with China, a big gainer.
Desperation rating: One star
Indonesia - $147bn public debt

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, president
Jakarta unveiled an emergency package last month in response to increasing pressure on its currency and stock market - including export tax cuts and ordering state-owned companies to repatriate foreign currency earnings.
Desperation rating: Two stars
Italy - $2.19tr public debt

Silvio Berlusconi, prime minister
The economy has contracted for a second quarter, by a worse than expected 0.5%. It is Italy's fourth recession in seven years. The government has set aside up to €40bn to recapitalise its banks and created a €650m fund to guarantee lending to companies.
Desperation rating: Five stars
Japan - $7.45tr public debt

Taro Aso, prime minister
The world's second biggest economy may be on the brink of recession. Despite this, Japan is prepared to take a leading role in helping get the global economy going, standing ready to offer $100bn in loans.
Desperation rating: Three stars
Mexico - $203bn public debt

Felipe de Jesus Calderon Hinojosa, president
The government is increasing spending by more than 13% to $231bn next year in a bid to boost the economy. The slump in the oil price hurt Mexico as oil revenues finance around 40% of its spending. The US slump has also cut the amount expatriate Mexicans send home.
Desperation rating: Four stars
Russia - $76bn public debt

Dmitry Medvedev, president
Russia has pledged a $200bn package for the economy and financial markets while the central bank has raised key interest rates to try to halt capital flight. Share prices have slumped while the rouble has been under heavy pressure. Russia has financial firepower but a fall in commodity prices hurts.
Desperation rating: Four stars
Saudi Arabia - $91bn public debt

King Abdullah
Its stock market is down 40% this year and the government has made $40bn available to its banks. However, the focus has been on Saudi pumping money into the IMF so that it can in turn bail out struggling countries.
Desperation rating: Three stars
South Africa - $88bn public debt

Petrus Kgalema Motlanthe, president
Its financial system is largely unscathed and could use its stronger bargaining position to press for more African voices in international forums such as the IMF. A potential gainer.
Desperation rating: Two stars
South Korea - $269bn public debt

Lee Myung-bak, president
No bank nationalisations but the government said yesterday it was ready to provide liquidity to the sector amid fears of mounting bad debts and slowing growth. Wobbling.
Desperation rating: Three stars
Turkey - $257bn public debt

Tayyip Recep Erdogan, prime minister
Turkey's debt was downgraded by credit rating agencies this week. It might need further IMF cash. Its currency lost a third of its value against the dollar last month alone.
Desperation rating: Four stars
UK - $1.2tr public debt

Gordon Brown, prime minister
Amid bank bail-outs and interest rate cuts the country sits on the brink of recession. The FTSE has lost around 40% since last summer. Desperation rating: Five stars
US - $8.4tr public debt

George Bush, president
The origin of the subprime crisis. Washington has drawn up a $700bn bail-out plan for the nation's banks, including a fund to buy toxic assets. Needs a solution fast.
Desperation rating: Five stars
EU

The eurozone is now officially in recession. The economy of the 15 countries using the euro shrank by 0.2% between July and September compared with the previous quarter.
Desperation rating: Four stars

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/15/economics-globaleconomy

Well, Indonesia deperation was rated as 2 STARS (**), while China was rated as 3 STARS (***), and India only desper as high as 1 STAR (*)

ANd, No wonder UK and US got 5 stars desperation ratings (*****).

:|

Turki jelas saja mengalami masalah ,,,, negara yang satu ini investasi dari EU nya gila2an .... Pembangunan negaranya bergantung pada investasi EU :p .....

Wahhh, dulu ngebet gabung sama EU. Sekarang lihat apa yang EU-mu perbuat.... EUROPEAN WANNABEs

Indonesia's Q3 GDP growth at 6.1 percent


JAKARTA, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Indonesia's annual economic growth eased in the third quarter to 6.1 percent, its weakest pace in more than a year, reflecting a slide in commodities prices as global demand deteriorates.
Still, the pace was modestly higher than forecast, underscoring expectations that Southeast Asia's biggest economy can achieve 6 percent growth for the full year, which analysts said is the minimum needed to dent unemployment in the world's fourth most populated country.

The data doesn't capture the main impact of the financial crisis that sparked a sharp downturn in the world economy and prompted investors to sell off emerging market assets in October, including those in Indonesia.
For now the central bank is keeping rates high to support confidence in Indonesian markets, but analysts said that with growth risks increasing as more developed economies slip into recession, the authority will start cutting rates next year.

"Going forward, the country's monetary authority is likely to monitor the performance of the rupiah vis-a-vis the movement of regional currencies against the dollar without compromising growth," said Enrico Tanuwidjaja, an economist at OCBC Bank in Singapore.
"We tip a rate cut to be done as early as within the first two months of next year."

The data, shrugged off my Indonesia's markets, showed the economy in July-September grew 6.11 percent from a year earlier, slightly above expectations for 6.01 percent and the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2007.

That marked a slowdown from a revised 6.44 percent in the second quarter and 6.32 percent in the first quarter, the statistics bureau figures showed.
A breakdown of the data showed annual growth in almost all sectors slowed down versus the pace seen in the second quarter.
But growth in public consumption, essentially government spending, jumped sharply to close to 17 percent in the third quarter from 5.5 percent in the second quarter.

The government has bumped up spending on free health care and cash handouts for the poor and on education, which analysts said is partly geared to wooing voters ahead of next year's presidential election.
Analysts said that consumer spending had also held up well, illustrated by robust car sales and annual bank loans growth of about 30 percent.
The global financial crisis has left Indonesian policy makers in a dilemma over how to support growth when key export markets are in recession while maintaining a sufficient premium on assets to support investor confidence.
For its part, the government has said it will cut subsidised gasoline prices in December to support consumers.

But the central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 9.5 percent, aiming to underpin the rupiah after a 20 percent fall against the dollar so far this year, even though it keeps the cost of borrowing relatively high.

CURRENCY OR GROWTH CONCERNS
Analysts said authorities would focus for now on stabilising the rupiah to keep confidence in the markets. The currency fell 2 percent on Monday.
Part of that effort will be to maintain a healthy premium in the central bank's benchmark rate over the U.S. fed funds rate, currently 8.5 percentage points, they said.

Indonesia imports a significant amount of basic necessities especially food. Failure to stablise the rupiah, therefore, could push up the cost of imported foods and put pressure on the country's balance of payments.
But with growth risks likely to increase as the world downturn deepens, rate cuts are a matter of time, they said.

"They will start to lower the rate in January, not in December because the rupiah has been under pressure lately. A rate cut in December is too soon," said economist Aldian Taloputra of Mandiri Sekuritas.

A Reuters poll conducted before the GDP data release had forecast 2008 growth of 6.15 percent against 6.32 percent last year, which was the highest pace in over a decade.

Turki jelas saja mengalami masalah ,,,, negara yang satu ini investasi dari EU nya gila2an .... Pembangunan negaranya bergantung pada investasi EU :p .....

Wahhh, dulu ngebet gabung sama EU. Sekarang lihat apa yang EU-mu perbuat.... EUROPEAN WANNABEs

hehe Ham !
kok kayaknya sensi bgd ama Turki

Ekonomi RI Masih Bisa Tumbuh Minimal 6% Tahun 2008

Jakarta - Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia minimal masih bisa mencapai 6% sepanjang tahun 2008, meskipun pada kuartal IV-2008 nanti pertumbuhan ekonomi berada di bawah 6%.

Demikian disampaikan oleh Kepala BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik) Rusman Heriawan dalam jumpa pers di Kantor Pusat BPS, Jakarta, Senin (17/10/2008).

"Kan rata-rata pertumbuhan dari kuartal I sampai kuartal III-2008 adalah 6,3%, jadi kalaupun ada perlambatan atau di kuartal IV-2008 pertumbuhan ekonomi di bawah 6%, pertumbuhan ekonomi kita secara keseluruhan di 2008 minimal tetap akan berada di 6%, karena kita punya reserve 6,3%," tuturnya.

Sementara untuk nilai PDB, pada kuartal III-2008, total PDB Indonesia adalah Rp 1.343,8 triliun sehingga secara keseluruhan dari kuartal I sampai kuartal III-2008 total PDB Indonesia adalah Rp 3.705,3 triliun.

"Meskipun nanti karena ada perlambatan PDB kita pada kuartal IV-2008 di bawah Rp 1.300 triliun, total PDB secara keseluruhan di 2008 bisa tembus Rp 5.000 triliun," katanya.

Jadi dengan seluruh perkiraan tersebut yaitu apabila nilai kurs rata-rata sepanjang 2008 Rp 9.700/US$, lalu PDB Rp 5,000 triliun, jumlah penduduk 228,5 juta, maka pendapatan per kapita Indonesia sampai akhir 2008 akan mencapai US$2.250 per orang per tahun.

"Saat ini total penduduk kita 228,5 juta, dan kue PDB kita itu yang terbesar di ASEAN. Namun dari sisi pendapatan perkapita kita masih kecil dibandingkan misalnya Thailand, Malaysia, terlebih lagi Singapura," pungkasnya.

^^ Hahahaha ... good news ...

Dari pada nyelimet dengan istilah-istilah ekonomi .. maka lebih baik ambil cara mudah ini untuk memprediksi ekonomi Indonesia tahun depan ...

Coba perhatikan perkembangan 3 -6 bulan kedepan ... Jika kurs USD to IDR nggak jatuh hingga level 15,000 dan cadangan devisa kita nggak "drop" ke level USD30 billion ... maka kemungkinan besar kita "Selamat dan Terhindar" dari resesi dunia ... Jika terjadi situasi sebaliknya maka siap-siap saja kita akan jadi pasien IMF lagi alias KrisMon jilid II ...

btw hati-hati dengan pemberitaan dari inilah.com, kental sekali nuansa politiknya untuk membunuh karakter Sri Mulyani.

btw hati-hati dengan pemberitaan dari inilah.com, kental sekali nuansa politiknya untuk membunuh karakter Sri Mulyani.

Perpanjangan konflik dari kubu JK/Ical sama SM/Budiono di kabinet ..... sebab setahu saya Inilah.Com selama ini selalu pro to JK ... but, not to SM ... Hehehehe ....

Nah selama SBY bisa tegas dan rasional (mudah-mudahan nggak ragu-ragu seperti yang ditunjukan selama ini) maka "POLICY" yang diambil kabinet selama situsi krisis masih dapat dipertanggung-jawabkan kepada publik ...

http://www.seputar-indonesia.com/edisicetak/content/view/187714/

Ekonomi Sumatera Utara Tumbuh 6,17%

Monday, 17 November 2008

MEDAN(SINDO) – Pertumbuhan ekonomi Sumatera Utara (Sumut) pada triwulan III/2008 naik 3,32% dibandingkan triwulan II.Secara kumulatif,dari triwulan I hingga III 2008 tumbuh sebesar 6,17%.

Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik Sumut Alimuddin Sidabalok menjelaskan, berdasarkan kenaikan produk domestik regional bruto (PDRB) atas dasar harga konstan 2000, hingga triwulan III/ 2008, pertumbuhan terjadi hampir pada semua sektor perekonomian. Pertumbuhan tertinggi dicapai sektor perdagangan,hotel, dan restoran sebesar 5,14%.

Disusul, sektor industri pengolahan 4,50%, serta sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi 3,10%. ”Besaran PDRB Sumatera Utara pada triwulan III/2008 atas dasar harga berlaku mencapai Rp53,81 triliun, sedangkan atas dasar harga konstan 2000 sebesar Rp26,86 triliun,”ujarnya di Medan kemarin.

Secara keseluruhan,sektor ekonomi yang menunjukkan nilai tambah bruto yang terbesar adalah sektor industri pengolahan sebesar Rp13,18 triliun, pertanian sebesar Rp12,16 triliun, serta perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran sebesar Rp10,39 triliun.

Kemudian, sektor jasa-jasa sebesar Rp5,35 triliun, pengangkutan dan komunikasi sebesar Rp4,91 triliun,keuangan, persewaan,dan jasa perusahaan sebesar Rp3,49 triliun,dan sektor bangunan sebesar Rp3,06 triliun. ”Sektor ekonomi lainnya yaitu sektor pertambangan dan penggalian menghasilkan nilai tambah bruto sebesar Rp726,17 miliar dan sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih sebesar Rp546,46 miliar,”paparnya.

Dalam menciptakan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi,sektor yang memberikan sumbangan terbesar adalah industri pengolahan sebesar 1,02%, perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran sebesar 0,93%, serta sektor pertanian sebesar 0,63%.

Sementara keenam sektor perekonomian lainnya memberi kontribusi di bawah 0,30%. Dengan pencapaian ini, pertumbuhan ekonomi Sumut tahun ini yang ditargetkan sebesar 7,54% diperkirakan bakal sulit dicapai. Kalaupun tercapai, perlu kerja yang cukup ekstra,”ucapnya.

Pengamat ekonomi dari Universitas Negeri Medan M Ishak mengatakan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini diyakini tidak bisa tercapai, karena target pertumbuhan tersebut tidak berdasarkan asumsi kondisi krisis seperti sekarang. ”Harus ada penyesuaian pertumbuhan lagi.

Kondisi sekarang membuat semua pelaku ekonomi kesulitan sehingga pertumbuhan berbagai sektor terutama riil sulit berjalan,”jelasnya. Pertumbuhan ekonomi hingga akhir tahun, lanjut dia, dipastikan kurang sehat. Karena itu,Pemerintah Provinsi Sumatera Utara perlu gerakan cepat jika ingin target tercapai.”Perlu usaha yang lebih.Penyesuaian-penyesuaian harus dilakukan,”pungkasnya. (jelia amelida)

Bakrie squirms as crisis slams Indonesia

Jakarta, Nov 18, 2008 (AFP) -
Just months ago he was the undisputed king of Indonesia's tycoons, but now powerful Welfare Minister Aburizal Bakrie is struggling to hold together an empire crumbling in the global credit crunch.

The 62-year-old billionaire, a key financier of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his coalition partner Golkar, is fast losing his once-formidable political clout as stocks across his empire plummet, analysts said.

"Bakrie has lost his tenure as a major political heavyweight," political analyst Dewi Fortuna Anwar told AFP.

Yudhoyono probably still feels indebted to Bakrie for bankrolling his 2004 presidential campaign, but the swaggering tycoon's influence ultimately relies on how much money he can shell out to his political allies, Anwar said.

"He's now a minister, but if by (the general elections of) 2009 his financial issues can't be overcome... he may be seen as a political liability," he said.

Until recently, Bakrie was considered the richest man in Indonesia with a family fortune estimated by Forbes Asia magazine at 5.4 billion dollars, from holdings that span palm oil to coal and construction.

But as the US credit crunch turned into a global crisis, the spectacular commodities boom that fuelled the Bakrie family's profits went rapidly south.

His debts piled up, banks stopped lending and creditors started selling shares offered as collateral by holding company Bakrie & Brothers, economists said.

Trading in stocks in six Bakrie-linked companies was suspended in early October after they lost between a quarter and 40 percent of their value in one day.

With around 1.2 billion dollars in debt to maintain, Bakrie & Brothers is now scrambling to sell a 35-percent share in coal giant Bumi Resources, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal and a prized money-spinner in the Bakrie empire.

The likely buyer is private equity group Northstar Pacific Partners, the Indonesian affiliate of Texas Pacific Group, which is in talks to pick up the stake for 1.3 billion dollars.

Analysts said that even though his political star is falling almost as fast as Bumi's share price -- which has plunged more than 50 percent since the trading suspension was lifted in early November -- Bakrie is still able to call in some big favours from his friends in politics.

Yanuar Rizky, an analyst with the Aspirasi Indonesia Research Institute, said Bakrie used his political connections to freeze trade in Bumi shares for a month as Bakrie & Brothers cobbled together the Northstar deal.

"It's very clear this was an intervention by the government... it broke the law," Rizky said.

Stock exchange chief Erry Firmansyah denied there was any political interference behind the suspension.

The trading halt was only lifted after well-respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, formerly of the International Monetary Fund, reportedly threatened to resign in a tense meeting with Yudhoyono.

An 824.67-million-dollar buyback plan announced by Bakrie & Brothers last week slowed -- but did not arrest -- the decline in Bumi shares.

The stock tumbled another 9.5 percent to 1,050 rupiah (nine cents) on Monday after Bakrie & Brothers confirmed it had defaulted on 144.9 billion rupiah (12.5 million dollars) of short-term loans to two local companies.

While many here have relished watching Bakrie get snapped like a twig in the global economic maelstrom, Econit Advisory Group economist Hendri Saparini warned that the source of his empire's troubles -- the end of sky-high commodity prices -- signals tough times for the broader Indonesian economy.

"Sixty percent of Indonesian exports are reliant on commodity prices. So when prices are declining, it's a problem," she said.

EKONOMI
Lampung Tumbuh 5,21%

BANDAR LAMPUNG (Lampost): Pertumbuhan ekonomi Provinsi Lampung hingga triwulan III-2008 mencapai 5,21%. Nilai ini mendekati target yang ditentukan pemerintah daerah (pemda) 5%--5,5%.

Pertumbuhan kumulatif ini ditopang komponen pertumbuhan yang cukup berarti, yaitu net ekspor 31,48%, pembentukan modal tetap bruto (PMTB) 7,34%, dan komponen rumah tangga 2,27%. Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Provinsi Lampung Mohamad Razif, didampingi Kepala Bidang Neraca Wilayah dan Analisis Statistik BPS Budi Cahyono dalam siaran resmi BPS, Senin (17-11), mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Lampung di triwulan III-2008 tumbuh 3,52% dibanding dengan triwulan II-2008. Sementara jika dibanding dengan triwulan III-2007 (year on year), perekonomian Lampung tumbuh 6,59%.

"Nilai year on year pertumbuhan ekonomi Lampung ini melampaui pertumbuhan nasional yang hanya 6,1%. Meski di triwulan III ini dampak krisis finansial baru sedikit memengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi karena terjadi di pengujung triwulan III. Mungkin di triwulan IV nanti baru terasa," kata Razif.

Pertumbuhan year on year ini dipengaruhi komponen yang tumbuh cukup berarti. Antara lain komponen ekspor tumbuh 38,61% dengan kontribusi 19,93%. PMTB tumbuh 4,01% dan memberikan kontribusi 0,64%. Kemudian konsumsi rumah tangga tumbuh 1,15% dan menyumbang 0,64% untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi Lampung di triwulan III.

Menurut Budi Cahyono, dampak krisis global terlihat dari kegiatan impor Lampung yang turun cukup signifikan, yaitu -20,43%. Sementara itu, dari kegiatan ekspor, meski pertumbuhan masih positif terdapat beberapa komoditas yang mulai turun.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Lampung hingga triwulan III-2008 ini didukung seluruh sektor yang tumbuh positif, kecuali sektor pertambangan/penggalian. Pertumbuhan cukup berarti terjadi pada sektor angkutan/komunikasi (9,6%). Diikuti sektor keuangan/persewaan/jasa perusahaan (7,76%), dan bangunan (6,71%). Dilihat dari kontribusinya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Lampung, sektor pertanian mengontribusi terbesar, yaitu 1,57%.

Diikuti sektor perdagangan/hotel/restoran dan industri pengolahan masing-masing 1,01% dan 0,8%. Pertumbuhan ekonomi di triwulan III-2008 ini tetap didominasi empat sektor utama, yakni pertanian 38,85 persen. Diikuti sektor industri pengolahan (14,53%), sektor perdagangan/hotel/restoran (12,86%), dan sektor jasa-jasa 11,1%. n NOV/E-1

Another news of Aburizal Bakrie ..

Nov 17, 2008
Indonesia's Richest Man To Retire From Cabinet

Billionaire Aburizal Bakrie is giving up his government post amid a reported war with the finance minister over the fate of his sprawling business empire.

Aburizal Bakrie is Indonesia's richest man, one of its most feared power brokers. For years, he has profitably--*and controversially--presided as a kingmaker at the lucrative intersection of business and politics in a country often derided as among the world's most corrupt and difficult nations.

But now, with anxious bankers circling his family's mining-to-telecoms business empire, the billionaire (his net worth was estimated at $5.4 billion last December; it's much less today) has told Forbes.com he is calling an end to his ministerial career.

The timing of Bakrie's decision comes as his family empire, Bakrie Brothers, is under daily siege from bankers and investors anxious about a massive debt burden that threatens to cripple the empire, Indonesia's largest.

Shares in the Bakrie Group's component companies have fallen as much as 90% this year as the family negotiates to sell off its prized asset: a 35% stake in Indonesia's biggest mining company, Bumi Resources, to a consortium led by private equity firm Northstar Pacific, which is backed by the Fort Worth-based investor David Bonderman's Texas Pacific Group.

^^ katanya mau nuntut majalah Tempo juga ya? :D

^^

btw bener ngga sebenarnya kita bakal ngutang ke IMF lagi, dengar dari berita2 kayanya indonesia bakalan ngutang lagi nih dengan persyaratan lunak untuk keseimbangan APBN, masih percaya ma IMF juga?

kalo bener ngutang apa mau dikata, innalillahi......

setau gw SBY dah ga mau urusan ama IMF deh...

Indonesia GDP per capita will reach $2,250 by the end of 2008


Indonesia's third quarter economy grew at the slowest speed in six quarters as slumping commodity prices cut export revenues and the global economic slowdown reduced demand for Indonesian products.

Between July and September, Southeast Asia's largest economy, grew by 6.1 percent against the same period in 2007, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced Monday.

"It can be said that there was no increase in exports (in the third quarter of 2008 from the previous three months). But the economic growth of other countries is slowing as well," BPS chairman Rusman Heriawan.

Exports were declining as major importers cut demand in line with with the global economic downturn, the agency said.

Between July and September, the economy was supported by private consumption (57.8 percent), investment (27.5 percent), and government spending (8.5 percent), while net export and imports contributed almost nothing.

"September represented the peak of economic activities as people's spending rose due to an increase in income," Rusman said.

In September, private consumption rose as people spent more money during the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan and ahead of the Islamic Idul Fitri holiday, which took place on Oct. 1.

The transportation and communications sector contributed to the highest growth at 17.1 percent during the third quarter, compared to the same period last year, while the mining sector had the lowest growth at 1.6 percent.

In the first nine months of 2008, Indonesia's economy expanded by 6.3 percent, with the gross domestic product valued at Rp 3,705.3 trillion (US$310.72 billion).

Rusman said Indonesia's GDP would likely exceed Rp 5,000 trillion by the end of the year.

It is estimated that per capita income will reach $2,250 per person per year by the end of the year based on the assumption that GDP would reach Rp 5,000 trillion, with a population of 228.5 million people and an average currency exchange rate of Rp 9,700 per dollar, according to Rusman.

Rusman believed the economy would slow further in the last quarter of 2008, but was still capable of achieving full-year growth of slightly above 6 percent.

"Although the economy is likely to slow to below 6 percent in the fourth quarter (of 2008), overall economic growth will still be above 6 percent for the whole year," he said.

The government has said it will cut the price of subsidized Premium fuel by Rp 500 per liter from Rp 6,000 to Rp 5,500 starting Dec. 1. with the BPS estimating that the cut will help raise people's purchasing power.

Central bank governor Boediono said Indonesia's growth was far better than that of many other countries.

"I think we need to be aware for the fourth quarter. But growth in 2008 will be quite good," he said.

Finance Ministry head of fiscal policy Anggito Abimanyu said the ministry expected to record about 6.2 percent growth by the year's end, estimating the economy would expand by "less than 6 percent" in the last quarter of 2008.

Regarding projected economic growth for 2009, the BPS said growth would be less than 6 percent as pessimism clouded businesses and the government.

"A 6 percent growth is the maximum," Rusman said.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati has said Indonesia's economy may slow to as low as 5 percent in 2009 as the world economy feels the wider impact of the recession.

The Economist Intelligence Unit even predicted a 3.7 percent economic growth for Indonesia next year, far below the consensus figures of most economists, who generally forecast between 5.5 percent and 6 percent. The International Monetary Fund estimates a 5.5 percent growth rate for Indonesia for 2009.

^^

btw bener ngga sebenarnya kita bakal ngutang ke IMF lagi, dengar dari berita2 kayanya indonesia bakalan ngutang lagi nih dengan persyaratan lunak untuk keseimbangan APBN, masih percaya ma IMF juga?

kalo bener ngutang apa mau dikata, innalillahi......

kalo diliat dari beberapa berita terakhir, sby dan tim ekonomi malah menjauhi IMF ...

President: Indonesia not to seek IMF assistance


Washington DC (ANTARA News) - President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said Indonesia would not seek aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to overcome its problems in the current global financial crisis because in the past IMF assistance had proven ineffective.

"Our national position or attitude in the days ahead is that we will not choose a format like the one we had in the past -- cooperation with IMF -- when we had to sign a Letter of Intent and accept very tight conditions which were sometimes incompatible with our particular situation," he said here Sunday.

He said Indonesia had 10 years of experience cooperating with IMF which was later considered inappropriate, so in the face of the present global financial crisis it was better for the country not to have any relations with IMF again.

"In light of our experience with IMF, we have now to be more careful in entering into partnerships. To cooperate with international financial institutions, we should make sure that the measures, approaches, and the ways in which the problems are to be overcome will be right and suited to our national conditions," Yudhoyono said.

Asked what the government should do if the global monetary crisis jeopardized the national economy, President Yudhoyono said Indonesia would have a bilateral cooperation with the World Bank.

"It is difficult for us to choose a cooperation package with IMF again," the president said, adding that the current monetary crisis was the right moment for international monetary institutions such as IMF and the World Bank to revitalize their roles in the world economy.

According to Yudhoyono, IMF assistance with its strict requirements and conditions was considered ineffective in overcoming global economic problems.

"In my opinion, we should not use a single formula to overcome all problems," he said.

^^ katanya mau nuntut majalah Tempo juga ya? :D

Iya

^^

btw bener ngga sebenarnya kita bakal ngutang ke IMF lagi, dengar dari berita2 kayanya indonesia bakalan ngutang lagi nih dengan persyaratan lunak untuk keseimbangan APBN, masih percaya ma IMF juga?

kalo bener ngutang apa mau dikata, innalillahi......

Ga. WB kali..

-----------------------------

Mengenai Bumi Resources, kabar terakhir KPC & Arutmin mau mereka lepas. Udah deh, Bumi jadi kacangan lagi...

^^

btw bener ngga sebenarnya kita bakal ngutang ke IMF lagi, dengar dari berita2 kayanya indonesia bakalan ngutang lagi nih dengan persyaratan lunak untuk keseimbangan APBN, masih percaya ma IMF juga?

kalo bener ngutang apa mau dikata, innalillahi......

IMF dibuat untuk membantu suatu negara jika mereka mengalami masalah dalam neraca pembayarannya ... --> dipakai untuk menambah cadangan devisa ... (selama Indonesia mampu untuk membayar utang yang jatuh tempo + jasa + import barang maka kita nggak perlu bantuan IMF).

Sedangkan World Bank ataupun ADB memang sengaja dibentuk untuk membantu pembangunan negara berkembang --> dipakai untuk pembeayaan pembangunan di APBN..

Jadi IMF dan World Bank fungsi dan tujuannya berbeda ....

Note: Saat ini Anggaran Fiskal (APBN) kita selalu defisit, sedangkan neraca pembayaran kita masih positif (walaupun makin lama surplusnya berkurang) ...

India defisit sampe 9 % an kan ?.. knapa kita ga brani defisit sampe lebih dari 3 % , dengan catatan untuk pembangunan infrastruktur ?

10 KOTA PALING PRO BISNIS
SWA EDISI NOVEMBER 2008
METRO 10

mulai dari rank.10
10. GOWA ( Sulsel )
9. JEMBRANA ( BALI )
8. GORONTALO
7. BANJARMASIN
6. SRAGEN
5. KEBUMEN
4. YOGYAKARTA
3. LAMONGAN
2. TARAKAN
1. JEPARA

Kota Pro Bisnis maksudnya kota yang mendukung kalangan pengusaha baik kecil, menengah maupun atas. Urutan ini berdasarkan pada majalah bisnis Swa. Pro bisnis dapat diartikan juga sebagai kota yang dianggap paling memuaskan oleh para pelaku usaha. BAnyak yang mengatakan bahwa 70% uang di Indonesia beredar di Jakarta, tetapi menurut Bank Indonesia hanya 25% saja. Sebagai ikon investasi di Indonesia ternyata pertumbuhan investasi di JAKARTA tidak terlalu memukau dibanding kota-kota lain di Indonesia.

ternyata, dimata para pebisnis JAKARTA sudah tak terlalu diperhitungkan lagi, gejala bisnis cenderung bergerak di daerah khususnya kota-kota kecil dengan birokrasi bisnis yang mudah dari pemerintah daerah.

peredaran uang di Jakarta sekarang cenderung hanya 28% dari perputaran uang negara.

India defisit sampe 9 % an kan ?.. knapa kita ga brani defisit sampe lebih dari 3 % , dengan catatan untuk pembangunan infrastruktur ?

Batas yang aman untuk negara berkembang .. defisit fiskal max. 2% dari GDP.

Khusus untuk Indonesia sebenarnya sekaranglah waktu yang tepat untuk ekspansif (mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi) dengan memperbesar pengeluaran (otomotis defisit fiskal yang lebih besar) .. Tapi mengingat kemampuan daya serap anggaran yang masih rendah dan juga kebocoran anggaran yang masih tinggi (lu tahu sendiri betapa korupnya birokrasi kita) maka hasilnya nggak bakalan effektif alias dipakai untuk hura-hura doang ...


Indonesia Seeking Out Backers
Muhamad Al Azhari & Ardian Wibisono

The government has contacted international institutions and donor countries that it hopes may contribute to its US$5 billion standby loan target, a senior official at the Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday.

The loan target was set last month when the government realized that it might have difficulty raising funds in the financial markets given the ongoing turbulence caused by the current worldwide economic crisis.

Anggito Abimanyu, head of fiscal policy at the Finance Ministry, said that Indonesia had contacted the World Bank, Japan, Britain, France and some Middle Eastern countries to request loans.

“We have sent letters to a number of donor countries and multilateral institutions to secure standby loans,” he said. “We can’t disclose the figure as it is currently being calculated. But it is likely more than US$5 billion.”

Anggito added that these moves should be viewed as provisional. If global economic conditions were to improve, he explained, then the loans would not be needed.

“The point is not to let people get scared that we don’t have the money to finance the budget,” he said.

Indonesia has already secured a US$2 billion loan commitment from the World Bank, which it can exercise if economic growth falls below 6 percent next year, State Minister for National Development Planning Paskah Suzetta said last month after the announcement of the US$5 billion loan target.

Aside from international institutions and individual nations, the government is also allegedly looking to the Middle East’s Islamic Development Bank as one potential source of funding. Suzetta indicated that the bank was likely to buy as much as US$1 billion worth of Indonesian sukuk, or Islamic bonds.

Over the past few years Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, has stepped up its efforts to sell government bonds to help cover the national budget deficit. The government is aiming for a budget deficit of 1 percent of the country’s total gross domestic product next year, roughly equal to Rp 52.7 trillion (US$4.48 billion).

But borrowing costs on the financial markets have increased significantly due to diminished interest from offshore investors in buying what are seen as riskier emerging market assets. This situation has prompted the government to seek out alternative sources of financing.

Woow ...Dalam waktu 1 bulan Rupiah kita sudah terdepresiasi 12% ..

Sepertinya Rupiah akan terus anjlok jika pihak asing melakukan "Cut Loss" dengan melepas portfolionya ke pasar.

Gue juga heran sama BI dan Pemerintah RI .. setuju ama rezim "Devisa Bebas" dan "Floating Exchange Rate" atau "Kurs Mengambang" tapi kok masih nggak bisa menerima implikasinya ketika Rupiah anjlok seperti sekarang ini ... Sayang .... Keledaipun nggak mau jatuh dilubang yang sdama untuk kedua kalinya ..

Indonesia rupiah hits decade low, market on edge
Nov 19, 2008

The Indonesian rupiah tumbled on Thursday to its weakest level since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago and trading almost ground to a halt as markets held their breath and braced for a currency slump.

Offshore non-deliverable forwards were pricing in a 12 percent depreciation in the rupiah within a month.

The government is scrambling to contain the crisis. Oil and gas regulator, BPMigas, said it would order oil-and-gas contractors to use local banks to deposit the billions of dollars earmarked for energy.

The currency changed hands at 12,350 per dollar in a few deals, a trader in Jakarta said, asking not to be identified. That would be the weakest level since August 1998, when Indonesia was grappling with the fallout from the Asian financial crisis that drained the region of capital and wrecked the country's economy.

Traders in Jakarta and elsewhere said banks were quoting bid/offer spreads as wide as 12,200-12,400 per dollar. The yawning gap between levels at which dealers are willing to buy and sell a currency point to nervousness and reluctance to sell dollars.

HSBC estimates showed foreigners own about 50 percent of Indonesia's stocks and nearly 20 percent of the outstanding government debt, said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist with HSBC in Singapore.

"I don't think we're in panic situation yet," he said.

"The key here is what the domestics are thinking. If they start to panic and to shove money abroad, that is the time to worry more.

"But my feeling is that we're not there yet and, with the fundamentals as they are, we shouldn't get there either."

Indonesia sees lower 08 budget deficit


JAKARTA, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Indonesia's 2008 budget deficit is likely to be a lower-than-targeted 1.1 percent of gross domestic product due to higher tax revenue and improved cost efficiency, a top finance ministry official said on Thursday.

The finance ministry had previously forecast a deficit of 1.3 percent.

The ministry regularly holds debt auctions every month to finance its budget deficit but in October had said it might cancel its planned domestic debt auctions this year due to turmoil in financial markets.

The ministry had bought back 41 billion rupiah ($3.37 million) worth of bonds and the central bank bought 333 billion rupiah worth of bonds in the secondary market as part of the authorities' measures to restore investor confidence and stabilise financial markets.

'The overall spending is expected to reach 90 percent of the target. We project tax revenue will be 105 percent of the target,' Anggito Abimanyu, the finance ministry's head of fiscal policy, said.

'We project a budget deficit at 1.1 percent of GDP, or around 51 trillion rupiah.'

He added that the lower-than-expected budget spending was the result of enhanced efficiency in government.

The ministry targeted 895 trillion rupiah of revenue in its revised 2008 budget, with revenue from tax expected to reach 609.2 trillion rupiah.

RI Siap Ekspor Gula di 2009


Jakarta - Setelah memberi sinyal untuk ekspor beras tahun depan, pemerintah juga menyatakan siap untuk melakukan ekspor terhadap komoditas gula di 2009.

Pemerintah merencanakan kebijakan ekspor komoditas seperti gula dan beras ini sebagai salah satu jalan untuk antisipasi krisis ekonomi yang akan mulai menimpa sektor riil.

Hal ini dikatakan oleh Deputi Menko Perekonomian bidang Pertanian dan Kelautan Bayu Krisnamurthi ketika ditemui di kantor Menteri Keuangan, Jalan Wahidin Raya, Jakarta, Kamis (20/11/2008).

"Kita cari ekspor dong. Harusnya bisa untuk ekspor. Saya kira kita akan cari peluang dengan sangat serius untuk itu karena di satu sisi pasar dunia masih tetap terbuka dan kita punya produksi yang bisa masuk ke pasar dunia," tutur Bayu.

Bayu mengatakan pemerintah melihat potensi yang kuat di sektor pangan yakni beras dan gula. Kedua komoditas tersebut diperkirakan akan mengalami surplus yang cukup besar.

Dipaparkannya surplus gula domestik saat ini sangat besar. Dari PTPN saja naik satu juta ton naik jadi 2,7 juta ton.

"Padahal, konsumsi dalam negeri tidak banyak berubah yakni antara 250 ribu ton hingga 300 ribu ton per bulan. Jika ditambah kebutuhan industri total kebutuhan gula nasional hanya 3,5 juta ton," tambahnya.

Sedangkan total produksi gula (kristal putih dan rafinasi) mencapai 4,2 juta ton. Namun, dia mengingatkan pelaksanaan ekspor hanya bisa dilakukan bila kebutuhan dalam negeri terpenuhi.

"Mengekspor kebutuhan seperti beras dan gula harus lihat kebutuhan dalam negeri dulu agar dalam negeri stabil. Jika jumlah stabil dan tidak ada masalah, baru kita ekspor," paparnya.

Namun Bayu tidak bisa menyebutkan kemungkinan pasar bagi komoditas alternatif tersebut. Pemerintah masih melakukan penjajakan untuk pasarnya.

jd dari jaman dahulu belum pernah exsport gula...???

^^ Unfortunately, not yet :nuts:

^^ Indonesia ekspor gula ???? :nuts:

Duhh, surganya petani banget tuh ... Yang ada juga kita impor gula (dan karena kenakalan orang dalam, angkanya berlebih banget sampe nyusahin petani gula tempatan, diperparah lagi dengan kemasan gula impor yang bagus banget dan warnanya putih banget, masalah mental pembeli gula di Indonesia juga sih) ..


*Contohnya aku tadi waktu dari HERO, lebih milih gula impor soalnya warnanya putih (dan harganya sama ama gula lokal :nuts: ) ....

^^ Luckily, the govt decided to export sugaries next year and this is for the first time ever .. :)

Kinerja Perekonomi Jambi Naik 2,8 Persen :)


JAMBI - Perekonomian Provinsi Jambi yang diukur berdasarkan PDRB (Produk Domestik Regional Bruto) atas dasar harga berlaku pada triwulan III (bulan Juli hingga Agustus) tahun 2008 mencapai Rp 9.606,98 milyar, sedangkan PDRB atas dasar harga konstan tahun 2000 pada triwulan III tahun 2008 adalah RP 3.902,33 milyar.

Kinerja perekonomian Provinsi Jambi yang digambarkan dengan perkembangan PDRB atas dasar harga konstan tahun 2000 pada triwulan III tahun 2008 dibanding triwulan II tahun 2008 meningkat sebesar 2,8 persen. Peningkatan ini didukung oleh semua sector ekonomi kecuali sector pertambangan. Pertumbuhan tertinggi terjadi pada sektor pertanian sebesar 3,9 persen yang kemudian diikuti oleh sektor keuangan, persewaaan dan jasa perusahaan sebesar 3,5 persen. Pertumbuhan terkecil terjadi pada sektor pertambangan dan penggalian sebesar minus 0,1 persen.

Demikian disampaikan Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jambi, Dyan Pramono Effendi, SE,ME. “Adapun sumber pertumbuhan utama PDRB pada triwulan III 2008 ini adalah sector pertanian yaitu sebesar 1,2 persen, sector perdagangan hotel dan restoran sebesar 0,7 persen dan sector industri pengolahan sebesar 0,4 persen,” katanya.

Dia menuturkan sebesar 64,3 persen PDRB triwulan III ini masih digunakan untuk konsumsi rumah tangga sebesar 6.173,74 milyar. Angka ini sedikit lebih rendah dari triwulan II 2008 yang sebesar 64,5 persen. Komponen penggunaan lainnya meliputi pengeluaran untuk konsumsi pemerintah sebesar 1.616,60 milyar, konsumsi lembaga nirlaba sebesar 43,96 milyar, pembentukan modal tetap bruto sebesar 1.550,86 milyar, perubahan stok sebesar 241,78 milyar dan ekspor sebesar 4.604,30 milyar dan impor sebesar 4.624,25 milyar.

Dikatakannya lagi dibandingkan dengan triwulan yang sama pada tahun sebelumnya (y-on-y) secara umum pada triwulan III tahun 2008 semua komponen penggunaan menunjukkan peningkatan. Pertumbuhan total year on year adalah 8,6 persen.

^^ Indonesia ekspor gula ???? :nuts:

Duhh, surganya petani banget tuh ... Yang ada juga kita impor gula (dan karena kenakalan orang dalam, angkanya berlebih banget sampe nyusahin petani gula tempatan, diperparah lagi dengan kemasan gula impor yang bagus banget dan warnanya putih banget, masalah mental pembeli gula di Indonesia juga sih) ..


*Contohnya aku tadi waktu dari HERO, lebih milih gula impor soalnya warnanya putih (dan harganya sama ama gula lokal :nuts: ) ....

GULAKU juga warnanya sama putih koq kayanya ama yang impor.. :)

Made in Lampung memang top markatop deh ;)

Indonesia needs to learn agricultural development from Brazil


Rio de Janeiro (ANTARA News) - Indonesia needs to learn more about agricultural development and research from Brazil, Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono said here on Wednesday.

"We need to learn many things from Brazil," said Apriyantono who is one of several cabinet members accompanying President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on a tour of four American countries, including Brazil.

Earlier in the day, he had accompanied President Yudhoyono on a visit to the Brazilian government`s agricultural research institute, Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (Embrapa).

On the occasion, Embrapa executive director Tatiana de Sa briefed Yudhoyono on the activities of the institute which was established in 1973 and being run under the coordination of the country`s agricultural ministry.

At present the institute had 8,400 workers , 2,210 researchers and around 1,000 experts on agriculture who gave advice to farmers.

Tatiana said Embraga`s work to increase agricultural production began to yield results in 1991. For instance, the country`s production of sugar and its derivative ethanol had since then increased by 139.8 percent or at a rate of 15 percent per year.

Anton Apriyantono said Brazil had the widest agriculture area in the world and therefore the country was able to be self-sufficient in food, and even the largest agricultural-commodity-exporting country.

"Of a total of 850 million hectare area of Brazilian land, 366 million hectares are agriculture area, and 210 million hectares are for cow breeding," Anton said.

Compared with Brazil concerning the width of land, he said Indonesia would not possibly be self-sufficient in various agricultural commodities.

Meanwhile, President Yudhoyono said Indonesia would apply Brazilian agricultural technology.

"We want to study the Brazilian concept of technology, research, development and other innovations in order to increase Indonesia`s agricultural production," Yudhoyono said.

He said Indonesia wanted to apply Brazilian agricultural technology to increase its own agricultural and energy production.

"We are convinced that to increase our agricultural production we need coordinated technology, and thus we want to learn from Brazil," Yudhoyono added.

Indonesia`s batik in great demand at exhibition in Berlin


London (ANTARA News) - Indonesia`s silver accessories and batik products attracted many visitors at the Import Shop Berlin 2008 which was taken part by 540 participants from 60 countries at Messe Berlin exhibition hall, an official said.

"Visitors are packing the Indonesian pavilion, and showing their enthusiasm toward the displayed handicraft products with traditional patterns and also batik clothes," first secretary dealing with social and cultural affairs at the Indonesian embassy in Berlin, Agus Priono, said here Thursday.

"Indonesia`s participation in the event has improved which is marked by the increasing number of visitors coming to the Indonesian pavilion and also the increasing transactions taking place during the exhibition," he said.

According to Agus, almost all the Indonesian participants considered the Berlin exhibition as a promising and effective promotion of their products.

"Getting enough experience on market potentials in Berlin and the typeps of products which could attract visitors in this year`s exhibition, small-medium entrepreneurs stated their intenion to come again in next year`s Import Shop Berlin 2009," Agus said.

Visiting Chairman of the People`s Consultative Assembly (MPR)Hidayat Nur Wahid and an entourage also visited the Indonesian pavilion and gave support to Indonesian participants, during their official visit to Germany.

Agus explained that the event was an annual exhibition themed Global Market, Local products. The first was held 40 years ago and the Germans are always looking forward to visiting it.

At the event, he said, the organizing committee offered a slogan "Shop Like You`re On a Vacation" to give shopping opportunities to visitors without having to go abroad.

Agus also said that Indonesia as one of the exhibitors with silver accessories and batik garments of high quality and competitive prices.
(*)

Bahana: 3Q08 GDP growth good: Moderate 2009 decline likely


The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) has reported Indonesia's 3Q08 gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 6.1 percent year-on-year or 3.5 percent month-on-month, bringing the year-to-date economic growth up to 6.3 percent.

Compared to Japan, Singapore, Italy and Germany which are experiencing negative GDP growth, this figure is indeed a breath of fresh air amid the current global economic slowdown.

Even with further deceleration in 4Q08, Indonesia's overall 2008 GDP growth is now likely to beat both our and the market consensus' estimate of 5.9 percent.

Based on the BPS data, the 3Q figure was mainly supported by the 17.1 percent year-on-year growth in the transportation and telecommunication sectors, followed by electricity, gas and water which grew 10.6 percent year-on-year. The latter is in line with the government's efforts to raise spending in an effort to support the country's GDP growth.

At the other end of the spectrum, mining performed worst booking a mere 1.6 percent year-on-year growth, followed by agriculture which posted a 2.4 percent year-on-year growth. It is clear that Indonesia has started to suffer from falling commodity prices.

On the back of lower commodity prices and slower exports, we are seeing a downtrend in Indonesia's 3Q08 GDP growth, falling slightly from 6.3 percent in 1Q08 and 6.4 percent in 2Q08. In fact, the 6.1 percent 3Q08 GDP growth is the lowest growth recorded in the last six quarters. Amid the current economic downturn, this provides a signal that Indonesia's economic growth rate will continue to slow in the subsequent quarters.

The million dollar question is how to prevent the economy from free falling? We refer to Dr Keynes's recipe to correct market failure: the provision of greater government stimulus. The counter cyclical policy requires more government spending or to cut taxes when the economy is facing a downtrend or when entering into a recessionary path.

Despite the pros and cons of government intervention, we strongly believe that government stimulus is required to help boost economic growth. Would government support really help? Let us first see the breakdown of our economic growth.

Indonesia's economic growth is still predominantly driven by domestic consumption. In 3Q08, private consumption accounted for 56 percent of GDP, the lowest since 2005. While slowing, we believe that private consumption will continue to contribute the lions share of Indonesia's GDP composition in the subsequent quarters.

Having said that, we believe it is imperative for the government to come up with actions to buffer domestic consumption. This means maintaining purchasing power and providing employment opportunities, perhaps through the acceleration of government infrastructure projects.

Even if the government is successful in jump starting the economy through the implementation of infrastructure-related projects ahead of the 2009 elections, obstacles to growth are still massive, particularly against a backdrop of an unprecedented global downturn.

In this light, for Indonesia, the obstacles to growth would stem from the trade and investment fronts. On the trade side, 3Q08 indicators showed a somewhat lower 28.6 percent share compared to 30 percent in 2Q08.

This slowdown in exports stem from some demand destruction coupled with lower commodity prices which manifested themselves beginning in July 2008. Troubled export-oriented industries, according to BPS data, include textiles (-30.6 percent) and mining (-15.1 percent).

In sum, as the signs of slower economic growth have increased, the improved coordination of fiscal and monetary policy is very much needed. Unless this is accomplished, there could be a further downturn to our current expected 2009 GDP growth of 5.4 percent.

^^ Indonesia ekspor gula ???? :nuts:

Duhh, surganya petani banget tuh ... Yang ada juga kita impor gula (dan karena kenakalan orang dalam, angkanya berlebih banget sampe nyusahin petani gula tempatan, diperparah lagi dengan kemasan gula impor yang bagus banget dan warnanya putih banget, masalah mental pembeli gula di Indonesia juga sih) ..


*Contohnya aku tadi waktu dari HERO, lebih milih gula impor soalnya warnanya putih (dan harganya sama ama gula lokal :nuts: ) ....
Tapi g lebih suka gula lokal..lebih manis. Masa bodo gula impor lebih putih :D hehe

Jumlah Entrepreneur RI Menuju 2%


Jakarta - Jumlah pelaku bisnis mandiri atau enterpreneur di Indonesia memang masih sedikit. Namun ada tren pertambahan yang positif dan diperkirakan akan mencapai angka 2% dari total seluruh penduduk.

Demikian hal tersebut disampaikan oleh Surasono Soebari, salah satu pembicara sekaligus penulis buku Pensiunprener dalam seminar Indonesia Small & Medium Business Entrepreneur Award (ISMBEA) 2008 di Balroom Hotel Sahid, Jl Jendral Sudirman, Jakarta, Sabtu (30/8/2008).

"Entrepreneur di Indonesia semakin menjamur, seperti dilihat dalam riset milik Ir. Ciputra yang mengatakan jumlahnya saat ini sebanyak 0,18% dari total penduduk dan diperkirakan akan naik menjadi 2% bahkan lebih," katanya.

Jumlah tersebut mendekati jumlah entrepreneur di Amerika yang saat ini berjumlah 2,14% walaupun masih jauh dibandingkan dengan negara tetangga kita Singapura yang memiliki jumlah 7,2% dari total jumlah penduduknya.

"Pertumbuhannya di Indonesia sangat luar biasa, orang sudah mulai memilih menjadi entrepreneur di tengah kesulitan mencari lapangan pekerjaan," ujar mantan wartawan Tempo tersebut.

Dengan bertambahnya jumlah entrepreneur, Ia berharap Indonesia bisa siap menghadapi kenaikan jumlah penduduk di masa yang akan datang. "Ke depan Indonesia akan mengalami baby booming, dimana akan lebih banyak bayi yang lahir daripada orang tua yang meninggal," imbuhnya.

Menurutnya, hal tersebut bisa diketahui dari data BKKBN tentang estimasi pertambahan jumlah penduduk Indonesia. Saat ini jumlah penduduk Indonesia mencapai 220 juta jiwa. Diperkirakan pada tahun 2013 saja meningkat hingga 247,5 juta jiwa, sedangkan pada tahun 2025 melonjak hingga 273 juta jiwa.

"Masih ada kemungkinan untuk mencapai angka 300 juta jiwa. Jika sudah begitu maka persaingan mencari lapangan pekerjaan semakin ketat," tambahnya. Ia pun berharap anak muda Indonesia bisa berpikir kritis menghadapi permasalahan ini.

"Saat ini sudah banyak saya lihat anak-anak muda yang memulai bisnis kecil-kecilan. Saya rasa ini sudah bagus, mereka sudah mulai mengerti," pungkasnya.

Garuda Rugi Kurs Akibat Lemahnya Rupiah

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - PT Garuda Indonesia (Garuda) memastikan akan mengalami rugi nilai tukar (kurs) tahun ini, jika pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) berlanjut hingga akhir tahun.

"Rugi kurs di-balanceed kami pasti terjadi, jika, pelemahan rupiah berlanjut," kata Kepala Komunikasi Perusahaan Garuda, Pujobroto, saat dihubungi di Jakarta, Jumat.

Penegasan tersebut terkait dengan melemahnya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS akhir-akhir ini. Bahkan, kurs rupiah terhadap dolar AS di pasar spot antar bank Jakarta, Jumat sore sempat melewati angka Rp12.500 per dolar AS, karena kebutuhan dolar AS di pasar domestik makin besar.

Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS merosot menjadi Rp12.540/12.590 per dolar AS dibanding penutupan hari sebelumnya Rp12.230/12.500 atau melemah sebesar 310 poin.

Pujobroto mengemukaka, kondisi tersebut tidak bisa dihindari. "Namun, bagi Garuda tidak masalah karena hal itu hanya dalam neraca atau tidak ada nilai rupiah yang dikeluarkan, terutama untuk forex loss utang Garuda yang didominasi dolar AS," kata Pujo.

Pujo enggan memperkirakan berapa perkiraan rugi kurs Garuda, jika rupiah di akhir tahun ini tetap di atas Rp10.000 per dolar AS.

Secara operasional, menurut Pujobroto, Garuda optimis masih mencetak laba. "Bahkan, perkiraan kami, laba usaha operasi melebih target dari RKAP 2008 sebesar Rp290 miliar," katanya.

Catatan menunjukkan, utang Garuda ke sejumlah kreditor asing dan dalam negeri saat ini nilainya mencapai 763 juta dollar AS. Rinciannya antara lain, Garuda berutang kepada European Export Credit Agency (ECA) sebesar 510 juta dollar AS dan ke sejumlah pemegang surat utang (promissory notes) 130 juta dollar AS.

Selain itu, Garuda juga punya utang ke Export Development Canada sebesar 12 juta dollar AS.

Tidak hanya itu, maskapai pelat merah ini juga berutang kepada para pemegang mandatory convertible bonds (MCB) seperti Bank Mandiri, Angkasa Pura I dan II, yang jumlahnya mencapai 131 juta dollar AS.

Sedangkan, sisanya, sekitar 100 juta dollar AS adalah utang ke sejumlah kreditor dalam negeri lainnya, yakni BRI, BNI, dan Pertamina. (*)

Aditya Suharmoko , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Sat, 11/22/2008 8:44 AM | Headlines

The government has taken control of troubled Bank Century, the first such move since the 1997-1998 crisis, to save it from collapse and restore confidence in the banking sector troubled by rumors that several small banks are short of liquidity.


The central bank said the lender had previously faced a liquidity problem, including when it failed to settle on time a Rp 5 billion clearing obligation more than a week ago, but was able to handle the problem by itself.


However, with Century facing more pressure, Bank Indonesia decided to intervene in a bid to boost customer confidence in the bank, BI Governor Boediono said at a media briefing Friday.


“The (overall) banking sector condition is good and solid. We decided the Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) should take over (the bank’s management) to ensure its depositors are safe,” Boediono said.


Century closed Friday but will resume operations next Monday, despite an overhaul in its management that was carried out by the LPS. BI earlier put the lender under a so-called special surveillance program.

Century, formed in December 2004 through the merger of Bank CIC, Bank Pikko and Bank Danpac, is Indonesia’s 13th largest lender by assets, with Rp 15.2 trillion (US$1.24 billion) in assets as of Sept. 30 this year.


The LPS has begun overhauling the bank’s management, appointing Maryono of Bank Mandiri, Indonesia’s largest lender by assets, as interim president director, LPS chairman Rudjito said.


He added the LPS took over Century after the bank’s capital adequacy ratio (CAR) dropped due to an assets deterioration, forcing the bank to allocate provisions that reduced its CAR.


The LPS has three years in which to restructure the bank by providing temporary capital, Rudjito said.


“A temporary capital injection can be given only within three years. If the bank can’t be sold
by that time, it can be extended twice a year.”


PT Sinar Mas Multiartha, owner of Bank Sinarmas, which has sought to acquire a 70 percent stake in Century, said the company was conducting due diligence.


“We have not canceled our plan (despite the takeover),” Sinar Mas director Gandhi Sulistyanto said Friday.


Because of the takeover, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) suspended trading in Century’s shares on Friday.


Boediono insisted the Century case was an isolated one and was not representative of the country’s banking sector condition.


On Nov. 13, Century failed to pay Rp 5 billion on time to BI’s clear-
ing system after a branch in Sumatra was late in channeling its
cash. The bank resumed operations a day later.

What BI can do after putting Century under special surveillance

1. Order shareholders to submit a capital restoration plan.
2. Order Century to carry out mandatory supervisory actions.
3. Order Century or its shareholders to: a. Replace its board of commissioners or directors; b. Erase bad lending and calculate losses to the capital; c. Merge or consolidate with other banks; d. Sell the bank to a buyer; e. Let other parties manage all or part of management.; f. Sell all or part of the bank’s assets or liabilities.; g. Freeze certain of the bank’s activities.

Asian economies: Sittin’ on the dock of a bay

HONG KONG, Nov 22 — Earlier this year most businessmen and investors hoped that Asia's emerging economies could withstand the economic and financial turmoil in the developed world. Now, however, stock markets seem to be betting on a rerun of Asia's deep recession after its own crisis in 1997-98. Share prices in the region have plunged by an average of two-thirds (in dollar terms) from their peak in 2007 — almost as much as they fell during the Asian financial crisis. Is Asia really heading for such a painful economic slump?

The latest figures are certainly worrying. Japan is now in recession. China's economy is slowing much more sharply than expected, with the 12-month growth in its industrial production falling from 18 per cent to 8 per cent over the past year. Indian spending is being squeezed by the credit crunch: commercial-vehicle sales fell by 36 per cent in the year to October. Hong Kong and Singapore are already in recession, with GDP having fallen for two consecutive quarters.

Asia is more reliant on exports than is any other region, so it is bound to be hurt by the rich world's worst recession since the 1930s. China's exports have so far held up surprisingly well, growing by 19 per cent in the 12 months to October. South Korea's have increased by 10 per cent. But in Singapore and Taiwan exports have plunged this year. An Indian official has said that exports in October were 15 per cent lower than a year ago.

Asia's foreign sales are being choked by the global credit squeeze as well as weak demand. Cargoes pile up on the dockside and ships wait empty because exporters cannot get letters of credit to secure payment on delivery. Robert Subbaraman, an economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, reckons that over the next year exports from Asia (excluding Japan) could fall by 20 per cent — roughly the same drop as during the 2001 dotcom crash. Weaker exports will dent investment and consumer spending. Yet Subbaraman reckons emerging Asia as a whole will see GDP growth of 5.6 per cent in 2009. That would be well down on the 9 per cent seen in 2007 and perhaps 7 per cent this year, but it would be slightly faster than during the 2001 downturn and much stronger than the 2 per cent average growth in 1998.

In 1998 Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand all suffered slumps in GDP of more than 6 per cent. Even the gloomiest forecasters do not expect anything so dire this time. A few, such as JPMorgan, expect GDP to decline next year in Hong Kong, and Hong Kong's chief executive, Donald Tsang, expects growth to be flat or negative in all the region's "mature" economies, including his own and Singapore. But everywhere else should see positive growth, and generally remain stronger than during the 2001 dotcom crash. Only Taiwan is likely to have a worse year in 2009 than in 1998.

Subbaraman also believes that Asia will recover sooner than other parts of the world, because most governments have ample room to ease policy and their economies are in better shape than those elsewhere. China, India, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong have all cut interest rates in the past two months. Falling energy and food prices will push inflation lower, and so allow further rate cuts.

All the main Asian emerging economies, apart from India's, have public debt-to-GDP ratios well below the average in rich economies, giving them room to boost public spending or cut taxes in order to spur domestic demand. China, Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand have already announced fiscal stimuli. Singapore is expected to fire its hefty fiscal ammunition soon. Hong Kong's Tsang is "up to his eyeballs in contingency plans".

In contrast to the late 1990s, most Asian economies are in relatively good shape. Elsewhere, foreign-exchange reserves exceed short-term foreign debts. Almost all the region's countries have current-account surpluses, though India and South Korea have deficits, which explains why they have seen large currency depreciations this year.

Most Asian households and companies are also modest borrowers. The black sheep is South Korea, where households and firms are even more indebted than in America. But total domestic debt (private and public) fell to 143 per cent of GDP in emerging Asia in 2007, compared with 251 per cent of GDP in America. As its exports stumble, Asia faces a nasty cyclical downturn. But it is spared the deep structural problems, such as excessive debt, which could depress growth elsewhere for several years.

All the Asian economies will slow sharply next year, but some more than others. As the most open economies that are also big financial centres, Singapore and Hong Kong have been hit hardest. India is the least dependent on exports, at only 22 per cent of its GDP, compared with a regional average of over half. So, in theory, it should be the least affected by the global slump. But India has two disadvantages. First, it is more exposed to the global credit crunch as a result of its previous reliance on large capital inflows. The sudden reversal of capital has sharply increased the cost of borrowing, forcing firms to cut investment — an important driver of growth in recent years. The Reserve Bank of India has cut interest rates and pumped liquidity into the banking system, but borrowing rates remain high.

A second problem is that, unlike China, the Indian government has little room for a fiscal stimulus. Its budget deficit is running at an estimated 8 per cent of GDP (including off-budget items). Whereas China is boosting infrastructure spending to prop up demand, India's plans to build roads and power plants with the help of private money may be delayed by the credit squeeze. The finance minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, declared this week that growth will "bounce back" to 9 per cent next year. Many economists reckon it is likely to be closer to 6 per cent, while China's slows to 8 per cent.

Among the Southeast Asian economies, Indonesia seems to be holding up best, with GDP up by 6.1 per cent in the year to the third quarter. As a big exporter of commodities it will be squeezed by falling prices. But Malaysia, which is much more dependent on foreign demand, will be hit harder. Its exports are equivalent to over 100 per cent of its GDP — proportionally, more than three times bigger than Indonesia's. Thailand, where Asia's financial crisis began in 1997, has learnt its lesson the hard way. Its foreign-exchange reserves are now four times as large as its short-term foreign debt, and it has a current-account surplus. It is not about to suffer another crisis. But as exports fall, business and consumer confidence remain depressed by political uncertainty. Thailand will remain one of Asia's slowcoaches.

On the surface, the massive debts of South Korea's households and firms might suggest serious trouble ahead. However, the government has been quick to bail out its banking system, and most economists reckon that a large fiscal boost and the cheaper won (down by 29 per cent this year) will help to cushion the economy, resulting in modest growth, of around 3 per cent next year.

In contrast, Taiwan is already in recession. Its GDP fell by 1 per cent in the year to the third quarter, dragged down both by a collapse in exports and by weak domestic demand. Some economists forecast growth of only 1 per cent next year. To lift consumer demand, the government this week said that it would give everybody NT$3,600 (RM390) in shopping vouchers to spend in shops and restaurants.

Such measures are a far cry from 1997, when rather than urging households to spend, governments in Asia begged them to hand over their gold jewellery to be melted down to bolster official reserves. Times have changed. Asia is certainly not immune to the rich world's recession, nor will its economies quickly regain their previous rapid growth trajectory. But the current gloom and doom among investors in the region might yet prove overdone. — The Economist

GULAKU juga warnanya sama putih koq kayanya ama yang impor.. :)

Hehehe gak semua GULAKU kok, nan :)

Ada yang warnanya Kuning juga tuh GULAKU ..

GULAKU di pasaran ada 2 jenis bungkusnya, ada bungkus warna kuning, juga ada bungkus warna hijau.

Kalau dilihat dari gambar ini, IHSG BEI terburuk kedua se-Asia donk yah, cuma lebih baik dari Shanghai

http://www.freeimagestoring.com/images/6mlycd6nzizwv4muofz1.jpg (http://www.freeimagestoring.com/)

^^ Lho, enggak donk. RTS, SHCOMP, baru IHSG..

^^ hehe, I don't consider Russia as part of Asia. Sebenernya dia tuh benua mana sih? hahaha

^^

Sebetulnya udah not bad menurutku. 3 tahun terakhir kan kita selalu top 3 best performing market. Jadi seharusnya sekarang dropnya lebih gede, karena indexnya mungkin sudah lebih inflated. Belum lagi IHSG kan termasuk pasar yg kecil, jadi semestinya lebih volatile.

Pasar lain yg 'skor'nya hampir sama (diatas 50%) banyak juga.

Finally we have recovered very fast ...

IHSG Melejit dengan Transaksi Besar

Jakarta - Perdagangan saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) berlangsung marak dengan aksi beli yang tinggi. Nilai transaksi juga mencuat hingga Rp 2,2 triliun jauh dari rata-rata belakangan yang hanya 1,3-1,5 triliun. Saham Bumi Resources kembali jadi idola.

Melejitnya harga saham Bumi Resources karena masuknya investor asing seperti George Soros serta antisipasi pasar terhadap proses akhir jual beli 35% saham BUMI antara Northstar dan Bakrie Brothers pada 28 November ini.

Pada penutupan perdagangan saham Rabu (26/11/2008) IHSG naik tajam 39,010 poin (3,38%) menjadi 1.193,151. Sementara pada sesi I IHSG menguat 32,963 poin (2,86%) menjadi 1.187,104. Rebound-nya saham di Asia ikut mendukung kenaikan IHSG.

Indeks LQ-45 naik 9,790 poin (4,47%) menjadi 228,867 dan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) naik 8,244 poin (4,55%) menjadi 189,516.

Pelaku pasar mulai memiliki sedikit memiliki kepercayaan diri untuk melakukan pembelian. Namun pembelian ini diduga hanya untuk trading karena investor melihat kondisi pasar global saat ini belum stabil.

Perdagangan saham hari ini mencatat transaksi sebanyak 61.848 kali, dengan volume 3,241 miliar unit saham, senilai Rp 2,207 triliun. Sebanyak 92 saham naik, 48 saham turun dan 61 saham stagnan.

IHSG mengikuti penguatan yang terjadi di hampir sebagian bursa saham Asia seperti Hang Seng naik 3,81%, KOSPI naik 4,72%, Shanghai naik 0,49%, STI Singapura naik 1,98% dan Taiwan naik 0,12%. Sedangkan bursa saham Nikkei turun 1,33%.

Saham-saham yang melejit harganya antara lain, Bumi Resources (BUMI) naik Rp 170 (20%) menjadi Rp 1.020, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) naik Rp 325 menjadi Rp 2.875, Bank Mandiri (BMRI) naik Rp 50 menjadi Rp 1.340, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA) naik Rp 650 menjadi Rp 6.350 dan Telkom (TLKM) naik Rp 300 menjadi Rp 5.750.

Sedangkan saham-saham yang turun harganya antara lain, Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) turun Rp 10 menjadi Rp 950, Bakrie Telecom (BTEL) turun Rp 1 menjadi Rp 54 dan Kalbe Farma (KLBF) turun Rp 5 menjadi Rp 390.

Pemerintah Yakin Bisa Tekan Pengangguran Jadi 5,1% Tahun 2009

Pemerintah Indonesia optimistis mampu menurunkan tingkat pengganguran terbuka menjadi 5,1 persen pada tahun 2009. Pemerintah akan mewujudkannya melalui sistem 3 in 1.

"Tingkat pengganguran terbuka akan turun menjadi 5,1 persen dari 8,5 persen pada awal tahun 2008. Kita optimis akan mampu mencapai 5,1 persen," kata Menteri Tenaga Kerja Erman Suparno.

Ia menyampaikan hal itu pada Pertemuan Tingkat Menteri Tenaga Kerja AsiaI-Uni Eropa (ASEM) ke-2 di Bali International Convention Center (BICC) Nusa Dua, Bali, Selasa (14/10/2008).

Erman menambahkan penurunan tingkat pengganguran terbuka akan dapat dicapai dengan upaya meningkatkan kualitas dan kompetensi pekerja melalui sistem 3 in 1, yaitu pelatihan, sertifikasi, dan penempatan.

Pemerintah Indonesia berjanji akan memberikan perlindungan terhadap tenaga kerja, diantaranya memberikan perlindungan sosial dengan mencegah HIV/AIDS serta narkoba di tempat kerja.

"Tenaga kerja jangan dianggap sebagai buruh tetapi human capital," katanya.

Selain itu, pemerintah berupaya membangun hubungan industrial yang harmonis dengan mengakui hak dan tanggungjawab pekerja. "Semua ini bertujuan untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi yang stabil," kata Erman.

Pertemuan tingkat menteri ini dihadiri oleh 35 negara dari Asia dan Uni Eropa, diantaranya Indonesia, Perancis, India, Yunani, Jerman, Irlandia, Denmark, Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar.

Tax income exceeds target: Director general


The tax office reported on Monday it was optimistic that this year's tax revenue would exceed the targeted amount, despite impacts of the global financial downturn.

Finance Ministry taxation director general Darmin Nasution told journalists that this year his office had aimed to collect Rp 535 trillion (around US$45 billion) from taxes -- a 25.5 percent increase form Rp 426.23 trillion in 2007.

"Our total tax revenue for 2008 will exceed that, probably by more than 5 percent," Darmin said on the sidelines of a Finance Ministry event in West Sumatra.

In theory, he added, if the global financial downturn slows the Indonesian economy down it would also decrease inflation and eventually slow the increase in tax revenue.

"But we are still analyzing and evaluating the impacts of the crisis on the revenue," he said.

Tax revenue has been increasing over the last five years. The Directorate General of Taxation secured Rp 176.2 trillion in collected taxes in 2002; Rp 204.15 trillion in 2003; Rp 238.98 trillion in 2004; Rp 298.34 trillion in 2005; Rp 358.05 trillion in 2006 and Rp 426.23 trillion in 2007.

Last year, tax revenue accounted for around 70 percent of the country's revenue. (dre)

the news has been reposted

Finally we have recovered much faster ...

IHSG Melejit dengan Transaksi Besar

Jakarta - Perdagangan saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) berlangsung marak dengan aksi beli yang tinggi. Nilai transaksi juga mencuat hingga Rp 2,2 triliun jauh dari rata-rata belakangan yang hanya 1,3-1,5 triliun. Saham Bumi Resources kembali jadi idola.

Melejitnya harga saham Bumi Resources karena masuknya investor asing seperti George Soros serta antisipasi pasar terhadap proses akhir jual beli 35% saham BUMI antara Northstar dan Bakrie Brothers pada 28 November ini.

Pada penutupan perdagangan saham Rabu (26/11/2008) IHSG naik tajam 39,010 poin (3,38%) menjadi 1.193,151. Sementara pada sesi I IHSG menguat 32,963 poin (2,86%) menjadi 1.187,104. Rebound-nya saham di Asia ikut mendukung kenaikan IHSG.

Indeks LQ-45 naik 9,790 poin (4,47%) menjadi 228,867 dan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) naik 8,244 poin (4,55%) menjadi 189,516.

Pelaku pasar mulai memiliki sedikit memiliki kepercayaan diri untuk melakukan pembelian. Namun pembelian ini diduga hanya untuk trading karena investor melihat kondisi pasar global saat ini belum stabil.

Perdagangan saham hari ini mencatat transaksi sebanyak 61.848 kali, dengan volume 3,241 miliar unit saham, senilai Rp 2,207 triliun. Sebanyak 92 saham naik, 48 saham turun dan 61 saham stagnan.

IHSG mengikuti penguatan yang terjadi di hampir sebagian bursa saham Asia seperti Hang Seng naik 3,81%, KOSPI naik 4,72%, Shanghai naik 0,49%, STI Singapura naik 1,98% dan Taiwan naik 0,12%. Sedangkan bursa saham Nikkei turun 1,33%.

Saham-saham yang melejit harganya antara lain, Bumi Resources (BUMI) naik Rp 170 (20%) menjadi Rp 1.020, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) naik Rp 325 menjadi Rp 2.875, Bank Mandiri (BMRI) naik Rp 50 menjadi Rp 1.340, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA) naik Rp 650 menjadi Rp 6.350 dan Telkom (TLKM) naik Rp 300 menjadi Rp 5.750.

Sedangkan saham-saham yang turun harganya antara lain, Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) turun Rp 10 menjadi Rp 950, Bakrie Telecom (BTEL) turun Rp 1 menjadi Rp 54 dan Kalbe Farma (KLBF) turun Rp 5 menjadi Rp 390.

26/11/08 20:14

RI - Belgia Jajaki Pengembangan Tanjung Priok

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Pemerintah Republik Indonesia dan Kerajaan Belgia menjajaki kemungkinan pengembangan Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok, Jakarta agar mampu melakukan angkutan laut langsung Priok-Belgia (direct call).

"Pembicaraan kami, mengenai ketertarikan Belgia ke Priok agar, Priok bisa direct call langsung ke Belgia," kata Menteri Perhubungan Jusman Syafii Djamal kepada pers usai pertemuan tertutup dengan Pangeran Philippe di Kantor Pusat PT Pelindo II Jakarta, Rabu.

Pangeran Phillipe adalah putra mahkota Kerajaan Belgia dan bersama 70 pengusaha Belgia. Sejak 21 November lalu, sedang melakukan misi ekonomi dan perdagangan di Indonesia.

Oleh karena itu, jelas Menhub, kerajaan Belgia mengharapkan agar Priok sebagai pelabuhan terbesar di Indonesia ini dilengkapi fasilitas modern sehingga tercipta pelabuhan yang lebih efisien.

"Dari situ, diharapkan, Priok bisa langsung melayani angkutan laut dan petikemas ke Belgia, khususnya ke dua pelabuhan utama Anwerp dan Zeebrugge," katanya.

Jadi, kata Jusman, sangat terbuka peluang kerjasama dengan Belgia. Setelah pertemuan ini, akan ada pertemuan lanjutan misi bisnis Belgia dan Indonesia.

Karena itu, Jusman belum bisa memerinci, gambaran investasi pihak Belgia di sektor kepelabuhanan itu. "Pada tahap awal gambarannnya semacam bantuan asistensi teknis untuk pengelolaan pelabuhan yang lebih baik," katanya.

Senada dengan Jusman, Dirut PT Pelindo II A. Syaifuddin menegaskan, peluang kerjasama itu harus seimbang.

Artinya, jika Priok akan dikembangkan maka potensinya harus sesuai yakni dengan kedatangan kapal-kapal internasional di atas generasi IV.

Dia mengakui, potensi direct call Priok-Belgia sangat besar karena jumlah petikemas yang dikapalkan dari Priok tujuan negara-negara Eropa selama 2008 hingga saat ini mencapai 9.712 TEU`s, termasuk ke Belgia.

"Hanya saja, hampir 100 persen, dari jumlah itu masih transit di Singapura," kata Syaifuddin.

Sementara data statistik menyebutkan, ekspor-impor kedua negara sejauh ini mencapai 1,2 miliar dolar AS dan Belgia merupakan negara peringkat ke-6 sebagai tujuan utama ekspor Indonesia.

Komoditas utamanya antara lain, produk kayu, furniture, garment, tekstril, produk kulit, ikan, tembakau dan peralatan mesin. (*)

COPYRIGHT © 2008

Finally we have recovered very fast ...


Bukan bermaksud mau pesimistis, tapi rasanya 'pulih' belum cocok saat ini....dasar nya masih belom keliatan. Prediksi 2009 baru market mulai wajar lagi :)

just my 2 cents..

Taman Tekno BSD City Serap 10.000 Tenaga Kerja


SERPONG, KAMIS - Kawasan Industri dan Pergudangan Taman Tekno BSD City telah memasuki pembangunan tahap keenam, menawarkan 73 kavling siap bangun dan 480 unit gudang. Dari jumlah tersebut, 351 unit gudang telah terjual dan terisi.

"Setiap pengusaha yang menempati gudang Taman Tekno sedikitnya mempekerjakan antara 20-30 orang. Jika dikalikan dengan jumlah usaha yang ada, Taman Tekno BSD City mampu menyerap tenaga kerja hingga hingga 10.000 orang. Jumlah ini masih terus bertambah seiring pertumbuhan kawasan Taman Tekno BSD City," papar Gandi Salistjanto, General Manager Taman Tekno BSD City, seusai acara Dialog Gubernur Banten dengan Investor dalam rangka Meningkatkan Investasi yang Kondusif di Provinsi Banten yang diselenggarakan di Club House Damai Indah Golf, BSD City, Kamis (27/11).

Gubernur Banten Ratu Atut Chosiyah memuji pengembang PT BSD yang membangun kawasan properti yang lengkap dan nyaman, termasuk kawasan industri ramah lingkungan Taman Tekno. "Pengembang BSD adalah investor terbaik di Banten," kata Ratu Atut.

Kawasan Industri dan Pergudangan Taman Tekno BSD City dibangun untuk mengatasi kebutuhan areal pergudangan yang belakangan sulit didapat di Jabodetabek. Dib angun di atas lahan seluas 200 hektar dengan kelengkapan infrastruktur modern dan inovatif, kawasan industri dan pergudangan yang dibangun PT Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD) Tbk memiliki sejumlah keunggulan kompetitif yang diharapkan bisa membantu pengusaha bertahan di tengah terjangan krisis sekaligus menyerap banyak tenaga kerja.

"Kawasan industri dan pergudangan Taman Tekno BSD City mengusung konsep multiguna. Selain dapat digunakan untuk gudang, seluruh bangunan di kawasan tersebut didesain untuk bisa difungsikan sebagai kantor, workshop, bahkan show room," jelas Gandi.

Menurut Gandi, konsep pergudangan multiguna sangat menguntungkan konsumen. Sebab, selain mendapatkan gudang, mereka sekaligus memperoleh ruang untuk kantor, workshop, atau show room. Pengusaha kini tak lagi harus menggandakan anggaran mereka untuk dapat membeli atau menyewa ruang kantor, workshop, show room, bahkan tempat tinggal.

"Cukup sekali membeli sebuah gudang di Taman Tekno, semua kebutuhan tersebut bisa terpenuhi. Dengan semua keuntungan ini diharapkan para pengusaha selaku konsumen dapat bertahan menghadapi krisis dan terhindar dari pemutusan hubungan kerja," ujar Gandi.

Kawasan Taman Tekno menawarkan gudang dengan luas tanah antara 360 m2 sampai 1.680 m2 d an luas bangunan mulai dari 225 m2 hingga 441 m2. Harga setiap unit berkisar antara Rp 1, 4 miliar hingga Rp 2 miliar.

Gandi menjelaskan, Kawasan Industri dan Pergudangan Multiguna Taman Tekno berada di lokasi strategis, memberi nilai tambah tersendiri. Lokasinya dilalui jalan utama provinsi dan diapit dua ruas tol, yaitu Jalan Tol Kebon Jeruk-Serpong-Merak dan Jalan Tol Serpong-Bintaro-Pondok Indah. Hal tersebut membuat Taman Tekno BSD City dapat dicapai dengan mudah dari arah barat dan selatan Jakarta, serta dari Bogor dan Serang.

Posisi kawasan pergudangan tersebut juga mudah dicapai dari Bandara Internasional Soekarno-Hatta dan Pelabuhan Merak, Banten, serta terkoneksi langsung melalui ruas tol menuju dan dari Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok. Khusus ke arah Timur menuju Cikampek dan Bandung, saat ini dapat dicapai dalam waktu relatif lebih singkat berkat keberadaan ruas tol BSD-Bogor dan BSD-Cikampek-Bandung.

Kelebihan lain dari kawasan pergudangan ini adalah bebas dari polusi air, udara dan kebisingan. "Kami juga menjamin keamanan pemilik gudang, karena petugas keamanan berjaga selama 24 jam penuh. Ditambah lagi, kawasan ini bebas dari kuli angkut liar, hingga pemilik gudang dapat berusaha dengan tenang tanpa gangguan apapun," tambah Gandi.

Kawasan Industri dan Pergudangan Multiguna Taman Tekno BSD City di tempati perusahaan skala menengah dan besar dengan jenis usaha meliputi percetakan, pertambangan, food, furniture , elektronik, farmasi, transportasi, kosmetik, kimia, mesin, bengkel, dan showroom, serta berbagai jenis usaha lainnya.

Kawasan Industri dan Pergudangan Multiguna Taman Tekno BSD City didukung infrastruktur lengkap dengan instalasi kabel bawah tanah. Ruas jalan dibangun dengan perkerasan beton ROW 20, hingga dapat dilalui kendaraan bertonase besar, seperti truk kontainer 40 feet.

Bukan bermaksud mau pesimistis, tapi rasanya 'pulih' belum cocok saat ini....dasar nya masih belom keliatan. Prediksi 2009 baru market mulai wajar lagi :)

just my 2 cents..

at least there is an improvement right, better than nothing ;)

Bukan bermaksud mau pesimistis, tapi rasanya 'pulih' belum cocok saat ini....dasar nya masih belom keliatan. Prediksi 2009 baru market mulai wajar lagi :)

just my 2 cents..

Betul, nanti kalau akhir 2009 dan pemilu usai dan tidak ada gono gini, market mulai merangkak naik lagi... Ancaman tahun depan yang sudah nyata adalah stabilitas (PEMILU).

Rasanya kalau capres RI-nya kayak J. McCain sih tidak masalah, kalah ya ngaku kalah. Itu baru :okay: Bukan kalah tapi ngomongnya "gak kalah, cuman kurang suara"... :lol: *menghibur diri sendiri ceritanya

^^ :lol:

Lagi2 detik ngawur

Jumlah Entrepreneur RI Menuju 2%

http://www.detikfinance.com/images/content/2008/08/30/4/enterprenuer-dalam.jpg

Jakarta - Jumlah pelaku bisnis mandiri atau enterpreneur di Indonesia memang masih sedikit. Namun ada tren pertambahan yang positif dan diperkirakan akan mencapai angka 2% dari total seluruh penduduk.

Demikian hal tersebut disampaikan oleh Surasono Soebari, salah satu pembicara sekaligus penulis buku Pensiunprener dalam seminar Indonesia Small & Medium Business Entrepreneur Award (ISMBEA) 2008 di Balroom Hotel Sahid, Jl Jendral Sudirman, Jakarta, Sabtu (30/8/2008).

"Entrepreneur di Indonesia semakin menjamur, seperti dilihat dalam riset milik Ir. Ciputra yang mengatakan jumlahnya saat ini sebanyak 0,18% dari total penduduk dan diperkirakan akan naik menjadi 2% bahkan lebih," katanya.

Jumlah tersebut mendekati jumlah entrepreneur di Amerika yang saat ini berjumlah 2,14% walaupun masih jauh dibandingkan dengan negara tetangga kita Singapura yang memiliki jumlah 7,2% dari total jumlah penduduknya.

"Pertumbuhannya di Indonesia sangat luar biasa, orang sudah mulai memilih menjadi entrepreneur di tengah kesulitan mencari lapangan pekerjaan," ujar mantan wartawan Tempo tersebut.

Dengan bertambahnya jumlah entrepreneur, Ia berharap Indonesia bisa siap menghadapi kenaikan jumlah penduduk di masa yang akan datang. "Ke depan Indonesia akan mengalami baby booming, dimana akan lebih banyak bayi yang lahir daripada orang tua yang meninggal," imbuhnya.

Menurutnya, hal tersebut bisa diketahui dari data BKKBN tentang estimasi pertambahan jumlah penduduk Indonesia. Saat ini jumlah penduduk Indonesia mencapai 220 juta jiwa. Diperkirakan pada tahun 2013 saja meningkat hingga 247,5 juta jiwa, sedangkan pada tahun 2025 melonjak hingga 273 juta jiwa.

"Masih ada kemungkinan untuk mencapai angka 300 juta jiwa. Jika sudah begitu maka persaingan mencari lapangan pekerjaan semakin ketat," tambahnya. Ia pun berharap anak muda Indonesia bisa berpikir kritis menghadapi permasalahan ini.

"Saat ini sudah banyak saya lihat anak-anak muda yang memulai bisnis kecil-kecilan. Saya rasa ini sudah bagus, mereka sudah mulai mengerti," pungkasnya.

http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2008/08/30/155135/997385/4/jumlah-entrepreneur-ri-menuju-2

Astaganaga, AS 2,14 persen? Udah gak mungkin banget. Amerika adalah negara adikuasa, wiraswasta dan bisnis pusatnya ada di Amerika. Berikut data yang lebih kredibel:

http://sites.kauffman.org/pdf/gem_2003_us_report.pdf

Menurut dokumen tersebut,

Entrepreneurship di US berjumlah 15.7% dari seluruh populasi Amerika.
Saya mempunyai estimasi bahwa dalam 2015, tingkat tersebut di Indonesia akan menjadi 6.2%. Dalam 2030, akan mencapai ideal rate yaitu 10% - 13%.

^^ emang tuh detik kalo mempublish berita ga pernah tepat.. makanya gw males bgt ngepost berita dari detik.com .. eh mimihitam, apa bener estimasi jumlah entrepeneur indonesia bisa mencapai 6.5% pada tahun 2015? bukankah mencapai 2% aja lumayan susah..

INDONESIA: On the way to achieve MDGs goals


JAKARTA - Indonesia is on track to achieve the goal of halving the number of citizens living in abject poverty and hunger by 2015, a joint government-UN report, Let's Speak Out for MDGs, stated.

But the report, detailing Indonesia's latest progress in achieving the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), revealed the country had made little progress in providing safe drinking water, reducing maternal mortality, improving child nutrition or tackling several environmental issues.

The 2008 report released on 29 October stated that the number of Indonesians living on less than US$1 per day had declined significantly, from 20.6 percent in 1990 to 15.4 percent this year, against 24.2 percent at the height of the economic crisis in 1997-1998.

The report stated, however, that 15.4 percent represented more than 34 million Indonesians categorised as poor. Based on recent trends, it should still be possible to reduce the poverty rate to 7.5 percent by 2015 but the report was compiled before the global economic crisis.

"This report shows good cause for optimism that many of the MDGs will be reached in Indonesia at the national level," El-Mostafa Benlamlih, UN Resident Coordinator for Indonesia, was quoted as saying in a statement.

"But the same cannot be said of many poorer provinces and districts which, by any measure, have remained behind," he stated.

Although the national poverty rate has decreased, local figures range widely from a 4.3 percent poverty rate in Jakarta to around 20 percent in Central Java, and almost 40 percent in Papua.

Abdurrahman Syebubakar, programme manager in the poverty reduction unit at the UN Development Program (UNDP) in Indonesia, said that despite progress, there had been disparities in achievements among the regions, with a significant number of districts and provinces in the outer islands unlikely to meet some of the goals.

Indonesia's current poverty rate is 15.4 percent and will be reduced to 7.5 percent in 2015.. and then by 2015, indonesia will turn to be one of countries that has the least poverty rate in the world :banana::banana::banana::banana:


Percent Poverty World Map by CIA World Factbook 2008


http://i144.photobucket.com/albums/r197/daryl_dav/Percent_poverty_world_map.png

^^ emang tuh detik kalo mempublish berita ga pernah tepat.. makanya gw males bgt ngepost berita dari detik.com .. eh mimihitam, apa bener estimasi jumlah entrepeneur indonesia bisa mencapai 6.5% pada tahun 2015? bukankah mencapai 2% aja lumayan susah..

Lom tentu, karena demographic seperti ini bnyk fluctation. Bnyk skali investasi entrepreneur kini sejak 2007 yg blom di masuken kedalam statistik.

Indonesia's Jan-Oct foreign direct investment up 54 pct


JAKARTA, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Foreign direct investment in Indonesia jumped 54 percent to $13.95 billion for the first 10 months from a year ago, driven by the telecommunications sector, official data showed on Monday.

The FDI figure for January-October was more than double the government's total 2008 target.

But the state investment agency (BKPM) said in a document obtained by Reuters that domestic investment fell 52 percent to 16 trillion rupiah ($1.34 billion) in the same period, from a year ago, with the food-related sector accounting for the largest portion.

The agency did not give further details. It has refused to release investment data on a regular monthly basis since early this year.

($1=11,950 rupiah)

UPDATE 1-Indonesia lifts top end of 2009 growth forecast


JAKARTA, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Indonesia's finance minister said on Tuesday the economy may grow as much as 6 percent in 2009, raising the upper end of the government's GDP growth range from 5 percent, as Southeast Asia's biggest economy heads for elections.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, regarded as one of the government's top technocrats, told parliament that the economy was likely to grow by between 4.5-6.0 percent next year in the face of a global financial crisis, but warned of a mild slowdown in the first half of 2009.

'The government sees a fairly clear and present risk to 2009 economic growth. However, we remain optimistic that private consumption growth can stay at the 5 percent level because of subsiding inflationary pressures next year,' Indrawati said.

'In 2009, our worst projection is for the economy to grow only 4.5 percent, while the optimistic projection is 6 percent. So the middle range is around 5-5.5 percent. The impact of the crisis will be felt in a mild slowdown, especially in the first half of 2009.'

The worst-case scenario, growth of just 4.5 percent, would be the slowest expansion since 2002.

Indonesia's economy has grown at an average of about 6 percent on a quarterly basis since the end of 2006, and with both parliamentary and presidential elections due next year, the economy will be a critical issue for voters.

Indonesia needs to maintain growth of over 6 percent in order to create new jobs for a rapidly growing population.

Indonesia' s sovereign credit rating, stable outlook remain appropriate despite risks- Moody's

Moody's Investor Services said Tuesday that Indonesia's Ba3 sovereign credit rating and stable outlook remain appropriate, even if risks remained, as the country's underlying credit fundamentals were not likely to erode significantly. The policy responses by the country to the global financial crisis have been adequate so far, the firm said.

The report said the conclusion was underpinned by the firm's assessment of the Indonesia's external vulnerability and liquidity management coupled with the ability of the authorities to maintain fiscal restraint.

Moody's however, noted that the country would require a more robust crisis management framework than what it has now, as without this, a prolonged global crisis could erode its sovereign credit quality more than is currently anticipated.

Aninda Mitra, senior analyst with Moody's, believed that even though Indonesia's reasonably healthy credit fundamentals fitted with its rating level, reactive policies could not ultimately substitute for greater access to hard currency or a wider financial safety net amidst prolonged global de-leveraging. The analyst indicated that the country's ability to take a more precautionary or systemic approach would support the external credit fundamentals and domestic confidence, rather than a piecemeal or reactionary approach.

Meanwhile, the firm noted that Indonesia's current account deficit was manageable, with foreign currency also at adequate levels. However, Moody's believed that mobile portfolio capital flows could pose additional pressures, and currency substitution by domestic residents -- if confidence in the Rupiah were to decline -- could prove more problematic.

The firm believed that the fiscal management supported the rating, and expects the government's net and gross financing requirements to be 1% and 3% of GDP next year.

"However, the trajectory of government debt ratios could face more challenges as a prolonged weakening of the Rupiah coupled with high domestic interest rates would lead to a ballooning of the government's debt stock and debt-servicing costs". Thus in future periods, stretching beyond a year or so, the government's external debt maturity profile could also deteriorate much more than is currently anticipated", Moody's said.

The firm, therefore believed that access to bilateral swap line and standby lines from the World Bank and other multilateral sources would provide credit support, and prevent the deterioration in the general government, external and debt ratios. In their absence, credit risks could be amplified over time amidst the continuing global de-leveraging, it said.

Aturan Bongkar Muat Barang Import Segera Diterapkan


KUALATUNGKAL - Kebijakan pemerintah untuk menerapkan peraturan pembatasan masuknya barang impor hanya melalui lima pelabuhan segera diterapkan oleh Dinas Perindustrian, Perdagangan dan Koperasi Kabupaten Tanjungjabung Barat (Tanjabar). Dalam kebijakan yang tertuang dalam No.44/M-DAG/PER/DAG/2008, yang dikeluarkan pada 1 November 2008 lalu disebutkan ada lima pelabuhan yang di tetapkan sebagai tempat bongkar muat barang import yakni pelabuhan Tanjung Priok di Jakarta, Pelabuhan Tanjung Emas di Semarang, Belawan di Medan, Tanjung Perak di Surabaya dan Soekarno-Hatta di Makassar.

Lalu bagaimana dengan pelabuhan yang ada di Kabupaten Tanjabar. " Selain itu, pelabuhan lainnya dilarang melakukan bongkar muat barang import termasuk Kualatungkal. Jika dilakukan berarti aktivitas itu ilegal," tegas Nuzul Karim, Kasubag Perdagangan Disperindagkop Kabupaten Tanjab Barat ketika dikonfirmasi Koran ini via ponsel, Senin ( 1/11) kemarin.

Namun katanya, kebijakan itu tidak serta merta harus diterapkan karena pihaknya perlu mensosialisasikan terlebih dahulu kepada para pengguna pelabuhan yang akan melakukan bongkar muat barang import. Setelah sosialisasi, kemudian akan diterapkan secepatnya. "Kita targetkan Januari 2009 sudah kita terapkan aturan itu,"ungkap Nuzul.

Seperti diketahui, Kabupaten Tanjabar merupakan pintu gerbang Provinsi Jambi yang berhubungan dengan negara tetangga Malaysia dan Singapore. Tentunya, saja pelabuhan di Kualatungkal sangat strategis sebagai tempat persinggahan dan bongkar muat barang import. ‘’Jika nanti keputusan menteri perdagangan itu di terapkan. Tentu saja aktivitas bongkar muat barang import di Kualatungkal dilarang alias illegal. Sebab pelabuhan yang dimilikinya tidak termasuk dari lima pelabuhan yang di izinkan sesuai kebijakan pemerintah,"jelasnya.

Selain pelabuhan, dalam Peraturan Menteri tersebut juga ada bandara Internasional yang ditetapkan sebagai tempat bongkar muat barang import. Sedangkan beberapa produk import yang di awasi antara lain garmen, elektronik, makanan dan minuman, barang permaian anak-anak serta sepatu dimana produk ini di perbolehkn masuk bila telah mempunyai izin importer (IT) . Sedangkan tujuan ditetapkannya peraturan Menteri Perdagangan ini guna menindaklanjuti dan masih berkaitan dengan kebijakan Presiden RI Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono dalam mengantisipasi krisis global yang melanda seluruh dunia termasuk Indonesia. :doh::doh:

mudah2an aja, pelabuhan kualatungkal ato muara sabak masuk k dalam salah satu pelabuhan import d Indonesia.

soalny pemprov Jambi tahun ini lagi menyelesaikan infrastruktur pendukung buat pelabuhan kontainer spt jalan, jembatan, crane, dan perluasan dermaga..

Hayooo siapa yg belum punya NPWP..??

Rabu, 03/12/2008 09:57 WIB
Tak Punya NPWP, Bayar Fiskal Rp 3 Juta Mulai 2009
Alih Istik Wahyuni - detikFinance

Jakarta - Berbagai cara dilakukan pemerintah untuk mengajak masyarakat memiliki Nomor Pokok Wajib Pajak (NPWP). Selain membebaskan fiskal bagi pemilik NPWP pada 2009, pemerintah tengah menggodok kenaikan pajak fiskal hingga 3 kali lipat bagi yang tidak memiliki NPWP.

Demikian disampaikan anggota Komisi XI DPR RI Melchias Markus Mekeng ketika dihubungi detikFinance, Rabu (3/12/2008).

"Kalau yang sekarang fiskal yang berlaku Rp 1 juta. Tapi lagi dibuat, kalau yang punya NPWP gratis fiskal, tapi yang nggak punya NPWP bayar Rp 3 juta," katanya.

Menurutnya Melchias, kenaikan fiskal bagi yang tidak memiliki NPWP itu masih digodok di internal pemerintah. Kalaupun disepakati, pemerintah bisa langsung menerapkannya melalui Peraturan Pemerintah (PP) dan berlaku mulai 1 Januari 2009 hingga 2010.

"Karena targetnya 2011 sudah tidak ada lagi fiskal," katanya.

Namun sebagai anggota DPR, Melchias menyarankan agar pemerintah memberikan beberapa dispensasi. Seperti untuk masyarakat yang ke luar negeri karena keperluan umroh atau naik haji, beasiswa, dan kasus lainnya.

Kenaikan fiskal ini merupakan langkah pemerintah untuk mendongkrak kepemilikan NPWP karena kesadaran masyarakat membayar pajak masih dirasa kurang.

"Pemahaman masyarakat tentang NPWP kurang, mereka pikir kalau punya NPWP nanti dikejar-kejar. Stigmanya masih seperti itu," katanya.(lih/qom)

gara2 pajak ...

walah...peraturan anehh..

ayo lowongan.. lowongan..


Unilever Buka Pabrik Terbesar se-Asia di Cikarang


Jakarta - PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk meresmikan pabrik perawatan kulit (skin care)-nya terbesar di Asia. Pabrk yang berlokasi di Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Cikarang ini dibangun dengan investasi awal Rp 500 miliar.

Peresmian pabrik baru Unilever ini dilakukan oleh Menteri Perindustrian Fahmi Idris didampingi Presiden Unilever untuk kawasan Asia, Afrika Tengah dan Eropa Timur Harish Manwani dan Presiden Direktur PT Unilever Indonesia Maurits Lalisang di Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Cikarang, Rabu (3/12/2008).

"Indonesia dipilih sebagai lokasi pembangunan pabrik baru setelah melalui assessment ketat oleh Unilever global dengan mempertimbangkan banyak hal, terutama daya saing iklim investasi. Ini jadi bukti Indonesia tetap jadi tempat menarik dan potensial untuk investasi dari luar negeri. Karena itu kita berharap pemerintah bisa terus menjaga iklim investasi ini," kata Lalisang.

Pabrik yang dibangun di atas lahan seluas 10 hektar ini memiliki luas bangunan 22.500 meter persegi. Produk yang dihasilkan dari pabrik berkapasitas 53.000 ton per tahun ini adalah Vaseline, Pond's, Dove, Lux, Lifebouy, dan Citra.

Keenam produk ini diproduksi bukan hanya untuk memenuhi permintaan domestik tapi juga akan diekspor ke beberapa negara Asia lainnya seperti Singapura, Thailand, Malaysia, Pilipina, Pakistan, India dan Vietnam.

Sebelum membangun pabrik yang baru ini, Unilever sudah memiliki tujuh pabrik di Indonesia. Pabrik-pabrik tersebut berlokasi di Cikarang dan Rungkut (Surabaya) dengan kapasitas 76.000 ton per tahun.

Unilever saat ini masih menjadi market leader di pasar skin care di Indonesia yang tumbuh rata-rata 10% per tahun. Beberapa produk unggulannya adalah Pond's dan Citra. Pasar Pond's di Indonesia merupakan kontributor terbesar bisnis Pond's di seluruh dunia. Sementara Citra yang merupakan produk dengan merek lokal juga sudah diekspor ke berbagai negara. Pertumbuhan perusahaan terus meningkat dengan tingkat penjualan pada 2007 mencapai Rp 12 triliun.

Kayaknya industri berbasis domestic market, kecil terkena imbas krisis global... Industri2 kayu, kertas yg mengandalkan pasar luar negeri udah mulai "mengencangkan ikat pinggang" (jadi mohon maaf kalau terasa sakit sebagian).

I don't know where to post this..


Indonesia now has fishing advisors


JAKARTA: Indonesia has introduced advisors specifically responsible for educating fisherman and seafood farming communities in a move to boost their competitiveness.

While previously such advisory roles were grouped under wider, more general farming bodies, starting in October these speciality advisors will be assigned solely to fishing communities, Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Ministry said in a statement Tuesday.

The ministry said Indonesia planned to have over 16,000 fishery instructors by 2030 to work in communities across Indonesia's 5,000 districts. Currently there are 4,200 filling that role.

"The fishery sector needs independent and professional instructors who can develop the potential of the fishing communities. The previous role of fishing advisors has failed to meet our full expectations," said ministry spokesman Soen'an Hadi Poernomo.

Indonesia targetkan Perbaiki Peringkat Iklim Investasi


JAKARTA--MI: Menteri Negara Pendayagunaan Aparatur Negara (Menneg PAN), Taufiq Effendi, mengatakan Indonesia pada 2009 menargetkan perbaikan yang signifikan di sektor investasi agar bisa berada di posisi 75 negara paling ramah investasi di dunia.

Hal tersebut disampaikan oleh Taufiq Effendi saat membuka seminar internasional tentang reformasi birokrasi yang digelar oleh Kementerian Negara PAN dan Bank Dunia, di Jakarta, Rabu (3/12).

Menurutnya, perbaikan iklim investasi dilakukan dengan langkah memudahkan prosedur berusaha di Indonesia, dengan prosedur investasi yang disederhanakan dan dipercepat.

Pada 2006, Indonesia masih berada di posisi 135 dari 175 negara yang disurvei oleh Bank Dunia dalam hal kemudahan berinvestasi. "Tapi kita menargetkan di tahun 2009 posisi kita sudah bisa berada di 75," ujarnya.

Langkah menuju realisasi target ini, masih kata Taufiq, antara lain berupa memperbaiki kualitas pelayanan publik, memfasilitasi pembentukan pelayanan terpadu yang dimulai pada tahun 2005.

"Pada tahun 2005 baru bisa terbentuk sembilan sistem pelayanan terpadu, dan pada tahun 2008 kita harapkan jumlahnya sudah bisa mencapai 350," katanya.

Pelaksanaan reformasi birokrasi juga dimulai di tiga instansi penting yaitu Departemen Keuangan, Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan (BPK), dan Mahkamah Agung. Pada 2008 program reformasi birokrasi ini akan terus dilaksanakan di seluruh instansi pemerintah termasuk pemerintah daerah, demikian Taufiq.

Kayaknya nggak hanya ini saja yang menyebabkan Rupiah tertekan ... yang paling parah sebenarnya adalah transaksi Swap Forward dan transaksi Margin Trading/Derivative yang dilakukan banyak bank tidak hanya di Indonesia tapi juga di Singapura ...

BI Telat Larang Produk Spekulatif Perbankan

JAKARTA - Bank Indonesia (BI) dinilai terlambat dalam mengantisipasi tekanan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah yang disebabkan produk spekulatif yang ditawarkan perbankan. Bank sentral pekan lalu sudah melarang penerbitan produk spekulatif seperti deposito dual currency dan callable forward. Namun itu langkah lambat dan menunjukkan lemahnya pengawasan BI.

Anggota Komisi XI (Keuangan dan Perbankan) DPR Dradjadi Hari Wibowo mengatakan ada dua bank asing dan dua bank nasional yang menawarkan produk spekulatif ini. "Kelemahan BI selalu telat mengawasi produk-produk ini. Dari dulu titik lemah pengawasan, dan produk terlanjur merajalela ke mana-mana, ibu-ibu sudah banyak ikut," kata Dradjad dalam rapat kerja dengan Menkeu Sri Mulyani Indrawati di Gedung DPR, Jakarta, kemarin (2/12).

Menurut Dradjad setidaknya ada 3.000 nasabah yang terjebak pada produk bank yang terkait valas ini.

Dradjad mengatakan produk derivatif yang rawan aksi spekulasi banyak membuat adanya permintaan artifisial terhadap dolar. Dia menyebut produk knock out forward dan callable forward yang dipasarkan PT Bank Danamon Tbk dan PT Bank Permata Tbk. "Bank itu dulunya hidup dari obligasi rekap, tapi justru mereka mendorong banyaknya artificial demand," kata Dradjad.

Selain dua bank swasta nasional itu, ada pula bank asing, yakni JP Morgan Chase dan Citi. Dana kelolaan untuk investasi jenis itu pada kedua bank asing ini mencapai antara USD 400 juta sampai USD 1 miliar. "Artinya ada pemintaan dolar yang artifisial dari orang-orang yang terlanjur terjebak di dalam market pada produk ini," kata Dradjad.

Menurut Dradjad, pemegang callable forward harus memenuhi kontrak. "Dalam masa kontrak tersebut bank akan semakin besar untungnya kalau rupiah semakin terdepresiasi. Jadi semakin rupiah menuju Rp 12 ribu atau 13 ribu, mereka semakin besar untungnya karena kontraknya rata-rata dipatok Rp 9.600 atau Rp 9.800," kata Dradjad. Investor yang mengikuti kontrak ini harus memburu dolar untuk memenuhi kontrak.

Dradjad juga menyesalkan adanya beberapa BUMN yang terjebak dalam kontrak ini. Menurut dia, BUMN yang ikut dalam investasi ini antara lain PT Elnusa Tbk , PT PGN Tbk , PT Aneka Tambang Tbk, dan PT Krakatau Steel. (sof/fan)

I really, really, really wish my salary wasn't in rupiah...

Indonesia Unexpectedly Cuts Key Rate to Boost Growth


Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s central bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates for the first time in a year to shield Southeast Asia’s biggest economy from the global recession.

Governor Boediono and his seven colleagues reduced the benchmark rate to 9.25 percent from 9.5 percent, Bank Indonesia said in a statement in Jakarta today. Just six of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast a cut.

Indonesia joins other Asian central banks in reducing borrowing costs to help boost growth, after the government cut its economic-expansion forecast for 2009 to a seven-year low of 4.5 percent. The Bank of Thailand yesterday slashed its key policy rate by the most ever.

“Today’s rate cut tells you that growth is the overarching concern right now,” said Lim Su Sian, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore, who forecasts a quarter-point reduction every month till March. “Eventually the global slowdown must have some kind of impact on the economy and Bank Indonesia is probably aware of it.”

Indonesia’s government on Dec. 2 said it expects the $433 billion economy to expand 4.5 percent next year, the slowest pace since 2002, as a worldwide slump saps demand for exports. The International Monetary Fund predicts the euro-region economy will contract 0.5 percent in 2009. The U.S. slipped into recession in December 2007.

Financial Crisis

“The decision to cut the rate was taken after evaluating financial and economic prospects, both in the domestic and global market,” Bank Indonesia said today. “The impact of the financial crisis on the global economy is getting real.”

Still, the rupiah has declined 23.5 percent in the past three months, making it the second-worst performing among Asia’s 10 most-traded currencies outside Japan.

The rupiah rose 0.2 percent to 11,925 against the dollar at 5 p.m. in Jakarta. The benchmark stock index gained 1.1 percent.

“The high policy rate seems no longer effective for defending the rupiah,” said Alexander Sugandi, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Jakarta. “Bank Indonesia wants to signal to the market that it is acting preemptively to prevent growth from slowing sharply in 2009.”

The central bank will support the rupiah “presumably via further currency intervention,” Robert Prior-Wandesforde, a senior economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Singapore, said in a note to clients.

Indonesia’s economy will expand at a slower pace in the fourth quarter than in the preceding three months, said central bank Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono. The full impact of the global crisis will be felt in 2009, he said. The economy grew 6.1 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier.

More Reductions

New Zealand’s central bank today reduced its benchmark rate by a record 1.5 percentage points to 5 percent and signaled more reductions. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Dec. 2 lowered its key rate by one percentage point, extending the biggest round of reductions since a recession in 1991.

Indonesia’s consumer prices increased 11.7 percent in November from a year earlier, after gaining 11.8 percent in October. That’s the highest in Southeast Asia outside Vietnam. Wholesale-price inflation slowed to 27.5 percent in September, when money-supply growth accelerated to 16.9 percent.

Inflation may slow further after the government cut gasoline prices by 8.3 percent on Dec. 1 and President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said subsidized diesel prices may be reduced in the “following month.”

The central bank said it expects inflation to be in the lower end of its 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent range next year.

Bank Indonesia also cut its overnight repurchase rate to 9.75 percent, while the deposit rate was raised to 8.75 percent, the central bank said.

Distressed debt potential best in Indonesia, China - poll


HONG KONG, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Indonesia and China will provide the biggest opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region for distressed debt investors in 2009, according to a survey released on Thursday.

The survey, conducted among 100 hedge fund managers and proprietary trading bankers by distressed debt and leverage finance news service Debtwire, said that enforcing security and legal rights was also the most difficult in Indonesia and China.

South Korea and Australia were the next largest in terms of market potential, it said.

Rating agencies have been predicting a rise in corporate defaults in the coming months as slowing economic growth and flagging demand hurt company earnings.

Standard & Poor's said economic slowdown in developed countries would be the primary reason, because of the dominance of export-oriented economies in Asia.

Moody's Investors Service's has predicted the global speculative-grade issuer-weighted corporate default rate will climb to 4.3 percent by the end of this year and rise sharply to 10.4 percent a year from around 3 percent currently.

"China and Indonesia are seen as providing the most distressed debt opportunities ... because these are the countries that have been the destination for so much hot (mostly hedge fund) money over the last few years," the report said.

Australia will be popular because the predictability of its legal system will allow investors to enter into distressed situations with some degree of comfort, it said.

"Korea has a large portion of their debt in foreign currencies - the won's debt liability is getting bigger and is thus potentially a source of distress," it said.

On the flip side, respondents voted Taiwan, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Singapore as least likely to present opportunities.

The property sector was rated as one with the greatest distressed debt opportunities followed by financial services.

About 92 percent of the respondents said investment potential in stressed assets would rise in the real estate sector in 2009, with 76 percent saying opportunities in the financial services sector would increase.

On the other hand, only 60 percent felt there would be pickings in the telecom and utilities sectors, often seen as defensive investments by portfolio managers.

In terms of products, refinancings, private placements and leveraged buyouts were rated as most likely to dominate distressed situations.

A slowdown in the U.S. economy was voted as the most likely trigger event for financial distress in 2009. Tighter credit markets and a slowdown in China were seen as the next two likely triggers.

With 95 percent of those polled expecting sourcing of funding next year to get more difficult, the survey revealed that private placements and loans would be the most popular routes accounting for 29 percent each.

I really, really, really wish my salary wasn't in rupiah...

hmmm. just tell ur boss that u want salary not rupiah..hurry...^^:banana: thats ur chance..

I really, really, really wish my salary wasn't in rupiah...

yes.. i wish u'll accept that u'll be paid in rupiah,, this is for saving our economy.. who live and work in indonesia should be familiar with rupiah.. sorry.. i i must say that it is compulsory if i could suggest to government..

Rupiah Rangking 6 dalam Peringkat Mata Uang Paling Lemah


Bandung - Rupiah menjadi salah satu mata uang terlemah di dunia. Rupiah menempati peringkat 6 mata uang terlemah di dunia, karena nilai depresiasinya yang cukup tajam.

Hal ini dikatakan oleh Pengamat Pasar Uang Farial Anwar dalam workshop wartawan ekonomi dan moneter tentang "Instrumen Moneter BI & Pasar Valuta Asing" di Hotel Grand Preanger, Bandung, Jumat (5/12/2008).

"Nilai rupiah masuk ke dalam mata uang yang paling tidak punya nilai atau junk money. Indonesia masuk peringkat 6 terendah, peringkat pertama Zimbabwe, kedua Turmekistan dan ketiga Vietnam," tuturnya.

Farial mengatakan pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah juga sangat tajam. "Kita dinilai menjadi mata uang paling buruk di dunia," imbuhnya.

Sebagai gambaran buruknya pelemahan nilai mata uang rupiah, Farial mengatakan pada periode Desember 2007 dibanding dengan Desember 2008, mata uang Bath Thailand hanya melemah 5% dari 33,69 Bath menjadi 35,55 Bath/US$.

"Sementara rupiah melemahnya sangat tajam yaitu 28%, dari Rp 9.390/US$ pada Desember 2007 menjadi Rp 12.000-an/US$ di Desember 2008. Jadi mata uang kita paling hebat guncangannya di dunia," tandasnya.

Ada beberapa alasan rupiah sangat mudah bergejolak terhadap dolar AS. Farial mengatakan salah satu alasannya adalah rezim devisa bebas.

"Ini harus diubah menjadi devisa terkendali dimana arus hot money perlu dibatasi waktunya, lalu devisa hasil ekspor swasta harus dimasukkan kepada perbankan dalam negeri," katanya.

Farial juga mengatakan penempatan dana asing di SBI juga menjadi salah satu faktor pelemahan rupiah. "Kenapa kok asing dibiarkan masuk SBI, padahal SBI kan untuk mengelola moneter dalam negeri, apalagi kita juga harus bayar bunga kepada asing, lebih baik kan untuk masyarakat," tandasnya.

Selain itu, Farial menjelaskan untuk mengantisipasi pelemahan rupiah yang terjadi, semua transaksi derivatif yang dilakukan oleh perusahaan harus ada underlying transaction-nya.

"Akan tetapi, pembatasan pembelian dolar yang tidak ada underlying transaction maksimal US$ 100 ribu per bulan, ini sangat berpengaruh kepada berkurangnya spekulasi dolar," katanya.

Mengenai penurunan BI rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 9,25%, Farial mengatakan penurunan itu belum cukup menjadi stimulus perekonomian.

"Sementara rupiah melemahnya sangat tajam yaitu 28%, dari Rp 9.390/US$ pada Desember 2007 menjadi Rp 12.000-an/US$ di Desember 2008. Jadi mata uang kita paling hebat guncangannya di dunia," tandasnya.

lalu nanti december 2008 to december 2009 = hows valuable our rupiah ??
so many people dont thrust rupiah, contoh kecil = jk go to mangga2 pasi laptop dijual dlm dollar

"Sementara rupiah melemahnya sangat tajam yaitu 28%, dari Rp 9.390/US$ pada Desember 2007 menjadi Rp 12.000-an/US$ di Desember 2008. Jadi mata uang kita paling hebat guncangannya di dunia," tandasnya.

lalu nanti december 2008 to december 2009 = hows valuable our rupiah ??
so many people dont thrust rupiah, contoh kecil = jk go to mangga2 pasi laptop dijual dlm dollar


klo ngga dimulai dari diri sendiri.. trus siapa lagi?? sampai kapan di negeri sendiri pun dipermainkan US dollar dan dollar singpur.. dua mata uang tu melenggang dengan bebas menjadi alat transaksi di dalam negeri trutama d jakarta n batam..

kita juga menganut sistem devisa bebas yg gw ngga tahu knapa gubernur BI budiono masih menerapkannya..

^^ tapi apa iya devisa terkontrol cocok buat negara kita ?

Thailand waktu 2006 kemarin ikut nerapin, tapi nyatanya malah pada lari alias capital outflow nya makin kenceng..

Nah sekarang kita bahas perkembangan terakhir ekonomi AS...

1. Tampaknya resiko default obligasi korporasi perusahaan2 AS masih "Tinggi" dan mengkhawatirkan ...
2. Market masih belum yakin akan keberhasilan/efektivitas pemerintah AS menangani krisis ini
3. Dengan zero yield ini nampaknya orang AS lebih prefer pegang "Cash" daripada taruh duitnya di Bank atau membeli obligasi yang dikeluarkan perusahaan di AS ....
4. Cash Inflow dari negara lain (seperti China yang membeli Gov't Treasury) kemungkinan besar tidak akan terjadi .. mengakibatkan semakin memburuknya perekonomian AS (nggak ada yang mau membeayai defisit AS karena yield-nya nggak sebanding dengan resiko yang harus ditanggung)..

Tampaknya akhir tahun 2008 bukanlah akhir tahun yang baik bagi AS ...

So, apakah Indonesia bisa terhindar dari resesi global saat ini? ...:nuts::nuts::nuts:

US Treasury Yields Near Zero

WASHINGTON - THE panic in global financial markets has sparked an unprecedented rush into safe US Treasury securities, driving yields on short-term government notes down to almost zero.
Due to stampeding demand for safe short-term investments, the US Treasury's four-week and three-month bills on Friday yielded an effective rate of 0.01 per cent - down sharply from 1.515 per cent and 1.785 per cent, respectively, in early September.

Other Treasuries are also showing record low yields. The 10-year bond yield fell as low as 2.505 per cent and the 30-year bond yield slid to 3.005 per cent at one point on Friday. The six-month bond yielded a mere 0.20 per cent.

The low yields reflect a surge in demand for these instruments, seen as the safest in the world during times of turmoil.

'Investors seem to be content to sell stocks and park into the bonds for now,' said Mr Greg Michalowski of the financial website FXDD.

Analysts say the fear factor has pushed up demand for Treasuries, since investors are virtually certain the US government will not default.

Other factors include worries about deflation and the overall trend in interest rates, with the Federal Reserve having cut its base lending rate to a historic low of 1.0 per cent, and further reductions possible.

But Mr Bob Eisenbeis, analyst at Cumberland Advisors, said the unprecedented low yields are a sign of 'dysfunction' in markets.

Eisenbeis said US municipal bonds are paying upwards of 6.0 per cent tax-free and corporate bonds even more, but that fears of default and a lack of knowledge about underlying bond quality have led investors to shun these alternatives.

One reason for the surge in demand for Treasuries, said Mr Eisenbeis, is the Federal Reserve's decision to flood financial markets with liquidity including through other central banks.

Many central banks and commercial banks are reluctant to use this cash for traditional lending, and are buying Treasuries to ride out the storm, Mr Eisenbeis added.

A big question for the market is whether the Treasury market has become a bubble that will burst.

Although the low rates allow Washington to borrow money cheaply, Mr Eisenbeis said such a scenario could be perilous for the economy and the dollar.

'When you have this huge flood of liquidity into the marketplace, that can't last forever,' he said.

A bursting of this bubble could mean a rush out of Treasuries, forcing the government to pay higher rates on an unprecedented amount of debt.

'We would have huge increases in our costs and people wouldn't want to hold Treasury obligations anymore because of the capital losses,' Mr Eisenbeis said.

'You could have a huge switch in interest rates very quickly.' Mr Mike Larson, an analyst at Weiss Research, says the long-term bond market could be 'the biggest bubble of all', worse than the dot-com and real estate bubbles.

'Treasury bonds almost never move this far, this fast. And interest rates, which move in the opposite direction of bond prices, almost never fall this far, this fast,' Mr Larson said.

Mr Larson said the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond plunged from a mid-October high of 4.08 per cent to nearly 2.5 per cent this week, 'yielding lows not seen since the mid-1950s'. 'There are lots of reasons to believe this Treasury rally is unsustainable, and that a day of reckoning is fast approaching,' he said.

Mr Sal Guatieri, economist at BMO Capital Markets, acknowledged that 'investors are throwing money at Uncle Sam with the same conviction that they bought houses and dot-com stocks in their heydays'. But he argued that if inflation is quashed and investors retain confidence in the US government, the dangers have not yet hit a boiling point.

'While Treasuries may be overpriced, they probably are not yet in a bubble,' he said.

a

moral of the story: Our people are losing faith in Rupiah...we worship The US dollar too much!

kalo kayak gini terus, ga akan deh rupiah bisa stabil....

cheers

i told u = some indonesia people dont trust rupiah...include me...
who want still believe on december 2009 rupiah will still on 11.000 per dollar..??
cause till now,theres no real action or great program by government for protect rupiah more deprecation from dollar...

para pejabat hanya berkata= rupiah menuju ke arah stabil yg baru...??$@% !!

Menuju Negara Pertanian Termaju di Dunia


Bagaimana membangun perekonomian yang pertumbuhannya terasa sampai ke sumsum tulang mayoritas rakyat Indonesia? Tidak ada cara lain kecuali membangun sektor pertanian yang berkualitas dan terintegrasi dengan sektor industri dan perdagangan sehingga mampu menumbuhkan pusat ekonomi baru.

Keandalan sektor pertanian tidak diragukan lagi. Selama satu dasawarsa (1998-2008), sektor pertanian kembali menunjukkan daya tahan di tengah krisis ekonomi.

Seperti yang dinyatakan Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Rusman Heriawan, perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi akibat krisis global mulai tampak pada triwulan III-2008.

Sektor pertanian yang mencakup pertanian, kehutanan, peternakan, dan perikanan turut berkontribusi 4,3 persen terhadap pertumbuhan perekonomian nasional. Masih lebih tinggi 0,1 persen dari industri pengolahan. Walau belum setinggi sektor usaha lain, seperti konstruksi (7,9 persen) atau pengangkutan dan komunikasi (19,0 persen), sektor pertanian menampung beban yang sangat besar. Sebanyak 42,5 juta orang dari 108,1 juta angkatan kerja nasional bekerja di sektor ini.

Maka, sudah semestinya negara agraris dan maritim ini menjadikan sektor pertanian terintegrasi sebagai lokomotif penggerak ekonomi nasional.

Peta jalan pertanian

Saat ini masih mantapnya pertumbuhan sektor pertanian tidak lain karena sumbangan subsektor pangan untuk konsumsi dalam negeri serta ekspor bahan mentah hasil perkebunan, perikanan, dan kehutanan.

Sebanyak 24,8 juta keluarga petani hidup dari subsektor pangan dan sejahtera saat harga beras, jagung, dan kedelai membaik hingga September 2008. Petani benar-benar memanfaatkan momentum ini karena pada saat yang bersamaan volume produksi pun naik.

Namun, kita patut menyayangkan. Meski kontribusi sektor pertanian sudah terbukti dalam perekonomian nasional, kebijakan pemerintah masih belum komprehensif. Sampai sekarang, pengembangan pertanian nasional masih belum terintegrasi dengan kebijakan perindustrian dan perdagangan.

Peta jalan (roadmap) yang bisa diandalkan untuk mengembangkan agroindustri jangka panjang sampai kini tak kunjung muncul. Malah kebijakan yang bersifat ad hoc lebih sering muncul untuk meredakan kasus per kasus. Kondisi ini ironis karena saat kita lupa menciptakan nilai tambah dalam produk pertanian, pasar domestik negara kepulauan terbesar di dunia ini terus diserbu produk impor.

Impor pangan Indonesia periode 1996-2005 berdasarkan catatan ahli peneliti utama dalam bidang kebijakan pertanian PSE-KP Departemen Pertanian, Husein Sawit, menyedot sedikitnya 1,6 miliar dollar AS atau setara Rp 14,7 triliun devisa. Sekarang jumlahnya tentu jauh lebih besar dari periode itu mengingat harga komoditas pangan dunia melonjak dua sampai tiga kali lipat.

Kenaikan impor bahan baku setengah jadi—yang sebenarnya bisa diperoleh di dalam negeri—tak terbendung. Dari Indikator Perdagangan Dunia 2008 yang diterbitkan Bank Dunia, rata-rata tarif bea masuk Indonesia pada 2006 sebesar 4,5 persen, lebih rendah daripada rata-rata tarif di Asia Timur dan Pasifik yang berada pada kisaran 4,9 persen, yang berpendapatan tinggi. Negara-negara berkembang berpendapatan menengah dan rendah saja menerapkan tarif rata-rata 8,7 persen.

Ironisnya lagi, tarif impor produk pertanian Indonesia tahun 2006-2007 6,5-7 persen. Paling rendah di Asia Pasifik. Ironis lagi, negara agraris seperti Indonesia memberikan tarif impor lebih murah untuk bahan baku produk pertanian ketimbang India, China, dan Brasil yang mampu mengekspor bahan jadi ke Eropa, Amerika Serikat, dan berbagai penjuru dunia.

Menurut Menteri Perdagangan Mari Elka Pangestu, tarif bea masuk yang rendah ditujukan untuk efisiensi industri dalam negeri, tanpa mengabaikan perlindungan terhadap pertanian sebagai sektor strategis.

Industrialisasi pertanian

Akan tetapi, bea masuk rendah untuk impor produk pertanian yang menjadi bahan baku proses produksi sungguh berisiko besar. Industri pengolahan hasil pertanian di Indonesia semakin hari semakin terfragmentasi, tak terintegrasi dengan sektor pertanian sebagai hulunya. Kita harus menanggung kenyataan pahit ini saat produk mentah tak laku di pasar ekspor dan sulit bersaing di pasar domestik karena harga bahan baku impor lebih murah.

Industri pengolahan kakao, misalnya, memasok bahan baku impor, sementara Indonesia banyak mengekspor biji kakao. Karena buruknya penanganan pascapanen atau tidak adanya industri pengolah antara, industri hilir menjadi tidak efisien jika memanfaatkan bahan baku hasil pertanian dalam negeri.

Selain tidak terintegrasi optimal dengan industri pengolahan, hasil-hasil pertanian Indonesia juga tak jarang kalah bersaing dengan produk impor di pasar konsumsi domestik.

Survei Asia Foundation seperti dikutip Gabungan Asosiasi Pengusaha Makanan dan Minuman Indonesia (GAPMMI) menunjukkan, biaya distribusi di Indonesia lewat jalan darat paling mahal dibandingkan dengan Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, dan China. Kualitas jalan yang buruk, pungutan liar oleh aparat jembatan timbang, kepolisian, tentara, dinas perhubungan, sampai preman, dan tumpang tindih retribusi pemerintah daerah membuat produk kita sulit bersaing dengan produk impor sejenis.

Siapa bisa menyangka kalau harga jeruk impor dari China jauh lebih murah dibandingkan jeruk Pontianak di Pasar Induk Kramat Jati, Jakarta Timur. Kalau sudah begini, siapa yang patut disalahkan. Petani jeruk Pontianak atau pemerintah?

Pemerintah lebih suka mengutamakan pembangunan industri manufaktur, yang dari sisi politik sangat menguntungkan. Industri manufaktur lebih cepat berdiri, menyerap tenaga kerja lebih banyak, dan bisa langsung mengekspor produk.

Adapun sektor pertanian, sudah tentu memakan waktu yang dimulai dari pembukaan lahan, penanaman bibit, perawatan, dan seterusnya. Belum lagi jika sebagian lahan terserang hama atau penyakit. Akhirnya, impor bahan baku lebih diprioritaskan untuk mendukung industri hilir. Kondisi ini yang terjadi pada industri gula nasional.

Industri gula rafinasi lebih suka mengimpor gula mentah dari Brasil ketimbang membeli dari petani dengan dalih kualitas jelek. Padahal, gula mentah petani yang jelek itu dihasilkan oleh mesin giling pabrik yang umurnya lebih tua dari republik ini.

Mereka pun lalu mengimpor bahan baku untuk memproduksi di dalam negeri. Pemerintah baru kalang kabut saat hasil produksi, yang lebih murah dari produk lokal, kemudian membanjiri pasar domestik. Semakin terpuruklah petani tebu kita.

Semestinya, pemerintah kita tidak terbujuk rayuan negara lain untuk lebih mendorong ekspor bahan baku mentah. Sudah semestinya pemerintah lebih tegas dengan menciptakan pasar domestik bagi produk lokal sambil meminta importir bahan mentah mendirikan industri bahan jadi di Indonesia. Mereka yang mau melakukannya harus diberi berbagai insentif fiskal dan moneter supaya lebih bergairah mendirikan industri hilir pertanian yang terintegrasi dengan hulu.

Kelapa sawit, karet, kakao, kopi, tebu, sampai jagung semuanya andalan pertanian kita. Sudah cukup bangsa kita menjadi petani tanpa pernah mengecap keberhasilan industrialisasi pertanian. Seribu langkah pun dimulai dari satu langkah. Dalam waktu 10 tahun, Indonesia pasti menjadi negara industri pertanian termaju di dunia.

Siapa yang bilang bahwa Indonesia nggak mengalami masalah di Neraca Pembayarannya akibat resesi global saat ini ?

Ini buktinya ... dulu IMF sekarang China, Jepang dan Korsel sebagai "Dewa Penyelamat" .... Hehehehe ..

FYI ... walaupun IMF setuju ngasih utang lebih besar dan dengan tanpa persyaratan .. gue sepenuhnya yakin SBY nggak bakalan berani ambil sebab sama saja dengan "Bunuh Diri" politik ....

Ingat jika kita jadi tarik juga pinjaman sebesar USD12.0 milyar tersebut .. toh tetap aja IMF ditunjuk menjadi "Mandor Pengawas" ..... So, don't trust 100% with the "Word" from our gov't ....:ohno::ohno::ohno:

Indonesia Meminjam US$ 12 Miliar dari ASEAN+3

[JAKARTA] Pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia (BI) tengah menegosiasikan penarikan pinjaman dari bank-bank sentral ASEAN+3. Jika berhasil, dana sejumlah US$ 12 miliar dari total dana US$ 80 miliar akan bisa ditarik melalui fasilitas hasil Inisiatif Chiang Mai ter-sebut.

"Dana itu rencananya digunakan untuk memperkuat neraca pembayaran," kata Ketua Forum Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (FSSK), Raden Pardede, Selasa (9/12) di Jakarta.

Menurutnya, pemerintah menginginkan agar penarikan pinjaman tidak mengacu pada persyaratan yang diberikan Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF).

Saat ini, lanjutnya, pemerintah melakukan negosiasi mengenai persyaratan yang mengiringi pinjaman tersebut. Sesuai ketentuan ASEAN+3, bila suatu negara menginginkan penarikan pinjaman di atas 20 persen dari total dana yang dimilikinya, mereka harus mengikuti aturan IMF.

"Namun, pemerintah tidak ingin mengikuti persyaratan tersebut, karena Indonesia sudah menarik diri dari pengawasan IMF. Ini yang pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia terus negosiasikan," ujarnya.

Apalagi, IMF telah menawarkan kepada Indonesia untuk menarik pinjaman langsung tanpa persyaratan. Bahkan, nilai pinjaman yang ditawarkan IMF mencapai US$ 15 miliar, atau lebih besar US$ 3 miliar dibanding yang ditawarkan ASEAN+3.

"IMF menyatakan kepada kita bahwa mereka bisa memberikan US$ 15 miliar tanpa persyaratan, tapi kita tidak ambil itu. Kita ambil dari yang lain dulu, itu yang saya katakan ASEAN+3 tadi," ujarnya.

Untuk memperkuat lobi pemerintah dan BI terkait negosiasi tersebut, pemerintah telah mengajukan penawaran agar perundingan ASEAN+3 pa- da 15 Desember menda-tang dapat dilaksanakan di Jakarta.

Penarikan pinjaman ini, menurutnya, akan dapat memberikan fasilitas tambahan likuiditas terhadap cadangan devisa nasional akibat arus modal keluar dana-dana asing.

"Jadi, kalau ada capital outflow, bisa digantikan dengan itu. Dengan buffer seperti itu, kita harapkan kepercayaan terhadap pasar keuangan kita akan tetap kuat," ujarnya.

Dalam kesempatan yang sama, Senior Resident Representative IMF untuk Indonesia, Milan Zavadjil menyatakan, per Oktober IMF telah melakukan berbagai kesepakatan dengan beberapa negara untuk mengucurkan pinjaman pendanaannya.


IMF Siap

Menurutnya, IMF siap mengalokasikan dana pinjaman bagi negara-negara yang membutuhkan dalam jumlah yang lebih besar dibandingkan pinjaman serupa tahun 1998 lalu.

Baru-baru ini, bank-bank sentral anggota ASEAN+3 sepakat untuk mengumpulkan cadangan devisa senilai US$ 80 miliar dibawah Inisiatif Chiang Mai. Cadangan devisa tersebut, dapat ditarik oleh setiap anggota bila terjadi krisis dalam neraca pembayarannya.

Sebanyak 80 persen dari dana tersebut, akan disumbangkan oleh Tiongkok, Jepang, dan Korsel. Sementara sisanya merupakan kontribusi dari negara-negara anggota ASEAN.

Penarikan dana nantinya melalui skema pertukaran (swap) mata uang. Berdasarkan kesepakatan, penarikan dana lebih dari 10 persen dari total cadangan devisa mensyaratkan pinjaman dan pengawasan dari IMF. [D-10]

Dana Infrastruktur 2009 Rp 100 Triliun


BANDUNG, RABU - Dana untuk pembangunan infrastruktur di Indonesia secara besar-besaran akan digulirkan pada tahun 2009. Pembangunan infrastruktur dibiayai dana pemerintah yang disimpan di Bank Indonesia senilai lebih dari Rp 100 triliun.

Ketua Kamar Dagang dan Industri (Kadin) Indonesia MS Hidayat di Bandung, Rabu (10/12), mengatakan, proyek-proyek infrastruktur itu akan ditenderkan kepada perusahaan swasta. Langkah tersebut diharapkan dapat menekan masalah ketenagakerjaan akibat krisis.

Selain itu, Kadin menginginkan pemerintah memberikan back up loan kepada pengusaha yang berinvestasi dalam proyek infrastruktur. Tujuannya, memanfaatkan investasi swasta nasional dan asing. Pemerintah tengah mengumpulkan perencana pembangunan dan konsultan infrastruktur.

Mereka mulai dikumpulkan sejak Desember 2008. Diharapkan, pada akhir triwulan pertama 2009, proyek-proyek infrastruktur baru sudah siap ditenderkan melalui skim public private partnership. Skim baru itu berupa kerja sama pemerintah pusat dan daerah dengan swasta.

Realisasi Investasi Januari-Nopember US$ 16,08 Milliar

JAKARTA, investorindonesia.com

Kepala Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) M Lutfie mengatakan, realisasi investasi pada sebelas bulan yakni dari Januari sampai Nopember 2008 mencapai US$16,08 miliar melampaui target yang ditetapkan BPKM sebesar US$ 9,92 miliar.

Hal tersebut disampaikan Kepala BKPM M Lutfie saat pemberian penghargaan "Investment Award" di kantor Wapres Jakarta, Rabu. "Investment Award" tersebut diberikan oleh BKPM kepada para kepala daerah (propinsi) dan perusahaan yang berhasil meningkatkan investasi.

Menurut Lutfie, lonjakan realisasi investasi tersebut dipasok oleh Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA) yang mencapai 40,4 persen dengan total 1.029 proyek dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun 2007. Namun Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN) justru menurun 51 persen dibanding tahun 2007.

"DKI menjadi lokasi PMA yang tertinggi senilai 9,62 miliar dolar AS dengan 404 proyek," kata Luthfi, seperti dilansir Antara.

Sementara diperingkat kedua PMA adalah Jawa Barat dengan nilai 2,39 miliar dolar AS yang terdiri dari 255 poyek. Peringkat ketiga, Riau dengan nilai 460,9 juta dollar AS untuk 8 proyek.

Sedangkan untuk PMDN, Luthfi mengakui dari sisi nilai memang mengalami penurunan 51 persen. Tetapi jika dilihat dari jumlah proyek, justru naik menjadi 210 proyek dibandingkan sebelas bulan pertama 2007 yang hanya sebanyak 148 proyek.

Untuk PMDN Jawa Barat menjadi yang tertinggi dengan 52 proyek senilai 407 juta dolar AS. Jawa Timur menempati urutan kedua senilai 284 juta dolar AS dengan 37 proyek. Sedangkan Banten menduduki urutan ketiga senilai 216 juta dolar AS dengan 29 proyek.

"Sektor industri yang banyak memberikan kontribusi antara lain transportasi, gudang, komunikasi, industri logam, mesin dan elektronika, dan industri otomotif," jelas Luthfi. (*)

padahal kita punya sumber daya alam potensi yg besar...
masih jg mau hutang utk memperkuat neraca pembayaran kita ??

^^

kayu2 hasil illegal logging dan ikan2 di perairan lepas selama ini dan diselundupkan dan dicuri ke negara2 tetangga aku rasa lebih dari cukup untuk menutup APBN,,, ratusan trilyun jek

^^ Angka ratusan trilyun adalah mengada-ngada .... Hal itu sangat super-duper mustahil.


=============================

Riau dulu bersama Kepri (waktu belum pisah), pernah nomor 1 PMA nya di Indonesia ... Waktu jaman booming perkebunan kelapa sawit di masa lampau, di Pekanbaru saja saking banyaknya orang Malaysia dan Singapura yang invest di bidang perkebunan. Di Pekanbaru sampe punya konsulat Singapur dan Malaysia :nuts: .. Hari ini saja, ada direct flight Garuda Indonesia ke Singapura 7 kali seminggu. Ditambah dengan Air Asia :nuts: ...

Kini, cuman urutan ke-3 :( .... hiks. TAPI PERLU DICATAT !!!! Provinsi di peringkat atas adalah Provinsi Jawa yang ketersediaan infrastruktur kelistrikan, transportasinya kuat ... KUATT SEKALI ..

Lah, di Riau aja krisis listrik masih bisa mengukir prestasi. Anda tahu, kalau krisis listrik di Riau teratasi, ada banyak pihak yang ketakutan akan dirugikan. Sudah sering dengar ceritanya dari sumber2 internal. :p~

Untuk PMA :
1. DKI Jakarta (populasi 8.8 juta jiwa)
2. Jawa Barat (populasi 38 juta jiwa)
3. Riau (populasi 4.5 juta jiwa)
^^ See, di Indonesia ada provinsi yang populasinya masih lebih tinggi dari Riau ..... Gak usah aku sebutkan, yang pasti di Sumatra.. Populasi Riau peringkat 4. Riau adalah provinsi yang paling jauh dari JAKARTA (IBUKOTA NEGARA) dalam peringkat di atas.

Untuk PMDN (Riau melorot ke pringkat 5, dari peringkat 4 pada tahun sebelumnya) :
1. Jawa Barat (38 juta jiwa)
2. Banten (9 juta jiwa)
3. Jawa Timur (36 juta jiwa)
4. DKI Jakarta (8.8 juta jiwa)
5. Riau (4.5 juta jiwa).
^^ No comment, idem aja sama explaination di atas ....

======= Dari RIAUTERKINI -=================
Jum’at, 12 Desember 2008 12:05
Investasi Asing Rangking Tiga, PMDN Riau Urutan Lima

Riau masih menjadi daerah yang menarik investasi, baik asing maupun domestik. Terbukti pada 2009 PMA Riau rangking tiga dan PMDN urutan lima.

Riauterkini-PEKANBARU- Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) mengumumkan peringkat investasi secara nasional pada 2008. Nilai investasi Riau dibandingkan daerah lain di Indonesia masih tergolong baik. Bahkan Riau masuk lima besar untuk kedua kategori, baik asing maupun domestik.

Untuk Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA) Riau menempati rangking tiga, dibawa DKI Jakarta dan Jawa Barat. Sedangkan untuk Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN) Riau urutan kelima, dibawa Jawa Barat, Banten, Jawa Timur dan DKI Jakarta. “Untuk tahun ini posisi investasi kita cukup baik. PMA rangking ketiga dan PMDN urutan kelima,” ujar Kepala Badan Promosi dan Investasi (BPI) Riau M Yafis kepada riauterkini di Pekanbaru, Jumat (12/12).

Dijelaskan Yafis, posisi investasi asing Riau tahun ini jauh lebih baik dibandingkan tahun lalu. Pada 2007 posisi PMA Riau pada urutan empat. Sedangkan untuk PMDN turun satu trip dari urutan empat menjadi lima.

Hanya saja, Yafiz mengaku belum mendapatkan data akhir mengenai jumlah investasi di Riau, baik untuk PMA maupun PMDN. Data terakhir yang dimiliki sampai Juni, yakni MPA sebesar USD 460,1 miliar dan PMDN sebesar Rp 994,9 miliar. “Data terbaru yang kita dapat dari PKPM sampai Juni, belum ada data terakhir,” ujarnya.***(mad)

Asia’s economies are imploding fast

SYDNEY, Dec 13 — World trade, especially in Asia, continues to plummet, pushing China closer towards recession while Japan is now deeply depressed.

In China the falls are almost as staggering as the incredible growth the nation has seen in recent decades. While recession in developed nations is defined as negative growth in gross domestic product over a year — or a few quarters — in China, 5 per cent growth is seen as recessionary. But even 5 per cent growth may be difficult given the collapse of trade. The implications for Australia are dire.

Although the manifestation of the problems is clearly seen through Asian trade figures, the root of the trade crisis remains the US consumer. US consumer spending will fall to levels not seen since the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour in 1942, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Both the London Telegraph and the Financial Times published stunning reports on the collapse of world trade, especially that of Asia and there were further suggestions of China's growth being less than 5 per cent, an unthinkable figure only a few months ago.

Has, we might ask, the recession gone global?

Council on Foreign Relations China hand Brad Setser added yesterday that China's November trade data (a 2.2 per cent year-over-year fall in exports; a 17.9 per cent year-over-year fall in imports) "suggests that global trade is contracting quite rapidly. And since trade accounts for a rising share of global activity, it suggests that the global economy has stalled — and perhaps is contracting".

"The fall in China's exports suggests global demand is falling. And the fall in China's imports on first blush seems larger than can be explained just by the fall in demand for imported components for China's exports and sliding commodity prices: it suggests that Chinese domestic demand is quite weak."

And he also notes that the November data from Korea and Taiwan tells a similar story. All experienced far larger year-over-year falls in their exports than China did.

"The economic downturn in Asia has taken a sharp turn for the worse as Japan slides into deep recession and exports contract in China, Korea, and Taiwan," Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reported in the Telegraph. He wrote that a "blizzard of grim data this week points to a full-blown trade slump across Asia, confirming fears that the region's strategy of export-led growth would backfire once the West buckled".

In the US, the Bloomberg survey showed consumer purchases, the biggest part of the economy, might drop at a 4 per cent rate this quarter, following the 3.7 per cent slump from July to the end of September. It would be the first time on record that spending declined in excess of 3 per cent in consecutive quarters.

The drop in sales will prompt employers to keep cutting staff, sending the unemployment rate to 8.2 per cent by the end of next year, a 25-year high, the survey showed.

The scale of China's problems, like its growth in the past decade, is almost unimaginable. While Western companies are stunned to hear of major companies laying off 50,000 workers, Chinese Government statistics estimate that at least 67,000 factories across all sectors closed during the first half of the year.

Both the Telegraph and the FT concentrated on Asian trade, with Flemming Nielsen, from Danske Bank, saying exports from Korea and Taiwan both shrank by more than 20 per cent last month. "The numbers are terrible," he wrote. "Intra-Asian trade is in free fall. Taiwan's exports to mainland China in November were down a whopping 42 per cent."

Fan Gang, a top adviser in Beijing, said China's exports would show a decline when data was released this week. "Things are not good: industrial growth will be around 5 per cent and export growth will be negative," he said. Economic expansion of 5 per cent would be a major shock and entail recession in the Chinese context.

Two weeks ago Business Day reported a likely fall in Chinese expansion to 6 per cent and a possible negative growth in GDP next year.

And the situation in Japan is potentially worse than it was at of the beginning of the 1990s when that country experienced its "lost decade".

In Japan, the Telegraph reported, the economy shrank 0.5 per cent in the third quarter and "risks sliding back into deflation and perma-slump". — The Age

:shocked: news

The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil and Indonesia, could
surpass all but the largest European economies by 2020.

At the same time, other changes are likely to shape the new landscape. These
include the possible economic rise of other states—such as Brazil, South
Africa, Indonesia, and even Russia—which may reinforce the growing role of
China and India even though by themselves these other countries would
have more limited geopolitical impact. Finally, we do not discount the possibility
of a stronger, more united Europe and a more internationally activist Japan,
although Europe, Japan, and Russia will be hard pressed to deal with aging
populations.



Other Rising States? Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, and South
Africa also are poised to achieve economic growth, although they are
unlikely to exercise the same political clout as China or India. Their growth
undoubtedly will benefit their neighbors, but they appear unlikely to become
such economic engines that they will be able to alter the flow of economic
power within and through their regions—a key element in Beijing and
New Delhi’s political and economic rise.


Experts assess that over the course of the next decade and a half Indonesia
may revert to high growth of 6 to 7 percent, which along with its expected
increase in its relatively large population from 226 to around 250 million would
make it one of the largest developing economies. Such high growth would
presume an improved investment environment, including intellectual
property rights protection and openness to foreign investment. With slower growth
its economy would be unable to absorb the unemployed or under-employed labor
force, thus heightening the risk of greater political instability. Indonesia is an
amalgam of divergent ethnic and religious groups. Although an Indonesian national
identity has been forged in the five decades since independence, the
government is still beset by stubborn secessionist movements.

The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020; Indonesia’s economy could also approach the economies of individual European countries by 2020.

—China, India, and perhaps others such as Brazil and Indonesia—have the potential to render obsolete the old categories of East and West, North and South, aligned and nonaligned, developed and developing. Traditional geographic groupings will increasingly lose salience in international relations. A state-bound world and a world of mega-cities, linked by flows of telecommunications, trade and finance, will co-exist. Competition for allegiances will be more open, less fixed than in the past.

Increased labor force participation in the global economy, especially by China, India, and Indonesia, will have enormous effects, possibly spurring internal and regional migrations. Either way it will have a large impact, determining the relative size of the world’s greatest new “megacities”
and, perhaps, act as a key variable for political stability/instability for decades to come.

To the degree that these vast internal migrations spill over national borders—currently, only a miniscule fraction of China’s 100 million internal migrants end up abroad—they could have major repercussions for other regions, including Europe and North America.

Most of the increase in world population and consumer demand
through 2020 will take place in today’s developing nations—especially China,
India, and Indonesia—and multinational companies from today’s
advanced nations will adapt their “profiles” and business practices to the
demands of these cultures.

^^ Weh, dapet darimana nan ?

Target Investasi Belum Tercapai

PMDN Turun, PMA Naik

JAMBI - Target investasi yang dipatok Pemerintah Provinsi (Pemprov) Jambi, hingga akhir 2008 ini belum tercapai.

Hal ini disebabkan, faktor krisis ekonomi yang masih mendera perekonomian global hingga saat ini. Dari data yang dikeluarkan oleh Bapemproda, rencana PMDN (Penanam Modal Dalam Negeri) tahun 2008 ini sebesar Rp 29, 7 Triliun. Tapi, realisasinya hanya Rp 8,838 triliun.

"Untuk PMDN (Penanam Modal Dalam Negeri) terealisasi sekitar 30 persen dari rencana,'' ujar Kepala Badan Penanaman Modal dan Promosi Daerah Provinsi Jambi, DR Muhammad Syafri kepada koran ini, kemarin.

Begitu juga dengan PMA (Penanam Modal Asing) lanjutnya. Dari rencana Rp 5,607 Triliun lebih, realisasinya hingga akhir 2008 ini berjumlah Rp. 1,987 Triliun lebih atau sekitar 35,35 persen. Belum tercapainya rencana investasi ini menurut Syafri disebabkan banyak faktor. " Salah satunya adalah pertimbangan perusahaan itu sendiri," sebutnya. Dijelas Syafri setidak ada lima faktor yang menjadi pertimbangan perusahaan dalam berinvestasi. Diantaranya segi marketing, finansial, manajemen, yuridis, teknis, serta sosio kultural.

''Di Provinsi Jambi sendiri dari segi keamanan suadh dijamin oleh Pemprov,'' ujar pemegang gelar Doktor dari ITB ini.

Dilanjutkannya, perkembangan PMDN di Provinsi Jambi, jika dibandingkan dengan tahun lalu, cenderung menurun. Jika tahun lalu PMDN ada 3, dengan total investasi mencapai Rp 9,4 Triliun, tahun 2008 ini hanya ada satu, dengan total inves Rp 688 Miliar lebih. "PMDN tahun ini baru Indofood,"sebutnya.

Hal yang cukup menggembirakan adalah untuk PMA. Untuk tahun ini perkembangan PMA di Jambi cenderung meningkat dari tahun sebelumnya. Jika tahun 2007 lalu PMA ada 9 proyek, dengan total investasi mencapai Rp 443.884.544.874, di akhir tahun 2008 ini sudah ada 16 investor. Jika dirupiahkan, nilai investasi PMA tersebut Rp 866.031.500.280 dan dengan US $ mencapai 482.105.015 $.

"Jumlah nya memang cenderung meningkat," sebutnya. Sedangkan sektor yang paling dominan yang menjadi tujuan investasi tersebut, kata dosen di beberapa perguruan tinggi di Jambi ini, yaitu sektor perkebunan dan jasa pertambangan umum.

Kedepan Syafri menyebutkan pihaknya akan berusaha menarik investor agar menanamkan modalnya di bidang Industri hilir. "Kita akan fokus ke industri hilir, ini untuk memacu perkembangan ekonomi di Jambi," sebutnya. Karena hingga saat ini Jambi hanya mampu memproduksi bahan setengah jadi.

"Kita harapkan kedepannya kita tidak hanya CPO dan karet saja, tapi sudah jadi produk yang bisa langsung dikonsumsi, seperti margarin dari CPO, dan Ban dari karet,"terangnya.

Top Growth Market of the Week: Indonesia


Continuing Emerginvest’s weekly highlight of booming economies despite the global financial shockwaves, this week’s highlight focuses on Indonesia.
With approximately 245 million people, Indonesia is the fourth-largest populated country in the world. It boasts a $418.7 billion GDP, with a per capita income of $3,573. The economy depends heavily on natural resources, manufacturing, and agriculture, comprising 9.1%, 27.8%, and 14.1% of total GDP respectively. Typical agricultural and manufacturing products include: timber, rubber, rice, coffee, garments, footwear, electronic goods, furniture, and paper products.

Indonesia’s Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSE) was hit just as hard as most other emerging market economies: falling 43% in the last year. However, Indonesia’s growth this past week has been astonishing, and has largely evaded the eye of most main-stream US news outlets. Emerginvest reports that Indonesia posted 13.05% growth in the past week, and was the leading growth country with the largest percentage gain of the 100+ countries which Emerginvest tracks. This includes a gargantuan surge of 7.63% on Monday (also the largest single day returns for the day, ahead of Russia and South Korea). In the last month overall, Indonesia was the 8th biggest growth nation, behind the likes of Qatar, South Africa, Hong Kong, Namibia, Colombia, Argentina, and Mexico with a 7.51% gain in only the last 30 days.

The Thinker: Should Indonesia Be Keynesian Now?
Berly Martawardaya

In 1936, Keynes wrote, “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slave of some defunct economist.” As we speak now, no deceased economist is more influential than Keynes himself.

Greg Mankiw, a former economic adviser to George W. Bush, said that “if you were going to turn to only one economist to understand the problems facing the economy, there is little doubt that the economist would be John Maynard Keynes.” Paul Krugman, a recent Nobel Prize winner in economics, proclaimed that now is a Keynes moment. Joseph Stiglitz, another Nobel Prize winner, goes further, claiming a moment of triumph for Keynesian tradition.

Keynes earned his popular acclaim the hard way: by being right on a very difficult and important question. Most classical economists before Keynes believed in Say’s Law, that supply creates its own demand. Slump in demand without external cause such as war or natural disaster is impossible. Keynes’s theory explains why depression is possible and, more importantly, how to get out from it.

Keynes connected the downward spiral of economic downturn to insufficient aggregate demand. Facing lower sales, business and producers cut back production despite available capacity, thus closing some factories and laying off workers along the way. The unemployed and those fearing to be unemployed reduce their purchases for higher liquidity preferences, the desire of individuals to hold liquid monetary assets, which leads banks to offer higher interest to get deposits. Banks hold their purse tight and freeze loans in fear of failed repayments. The vicious cycle continues.

Keynes further argued that not only are markets not self-correcting, but in a severe downturn, monetary policy was likely to be ineffective and the economy is in a liquidity trap. Fiscal policy must come to the rescue and not worry about budget deficits.

Couldn’t Indonesia’s government spend its way out of an economic downturn? October exports showed an 11.6 percent decrease from September. Reductions in oil prices played a significant role, but non-oil and gas exports such as rubber, wood products and textiles fell between 22 percent and 32 percent.

Foreign investment is likely to drop due to capital outflow to the United States and Europe to recapitalize the over-leveraged and subprime-exposed banks. In East Asia, Toyota and Sony are already feeling the impact of penny-pinching consumers.

There are some silver linings. Indonesia’s economy still grew at 6.1 percent on the third quarter. After bottoming in June, the consumer confidence index is rising and the October numbers reached their highest since July. More important, inflation receded in November at 0.12 percent, down from more than threefold in October.

While central bankers around the world cut interest rates, Bank Indonesia only recently cut its lending rate by 25 basis points. BI had raised its key interest rate six times this year, from 8.0 percent to 9.5 percent. BI also announced support for export credits and adjusted the overnight deposit rate to 50 basis points from 100 basis points below the benchmark BI rate. The Jakarta Interbank Offers Rate reaches 15 percent while the corresponding number for London and Singapore is below 3 percent. It’s hard not to argue for an even lower BI rate and creative liquidity measures.

The age of the central banker is supposed to pass — an era in which former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, Duisenberg from the European Central Bank and Hayami from Bank of Japan are sages that could move markets and jolt economies with a single word. Bank Indonesia is not that mighty, but BI Governor Boediono can prove that Indonesia still not all-Keynesian yet.

The writer is an economics lecturer at the University of Indonesia and maintains a blog at kafedepok.blogspot.com.

^^ ngomong2 tentang krisis global, apakah gdp per kapita indonesia tetap naik atau malah akan flat pada thn depan?

Rapor Perekonomian Kuartal III

Oleh : Cyrillus Harinowo
Pekan lalu Badan Pusat Statistik mengeluarkan laporan tentang PDB kuartal
III-2008. Data perekonomian itu menarik perhatian karena dengan data itu, kita bisa melihat lebih dalam dampak krisis finansial global terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Laporan BPS juga menarik karena beberapa negara di dunia, termasuk anggota G-7, Jepang, Jerman, dan Italia — berdasarkan laporan PDB terakhir — telah mengalami resesi, yaitu pertumbuhan negatif perekonomian selama dua kuartal.

Laporan BPS menunjukkan, PDB Indonesia pada kuartal III-2008 ternyata relatif masih bagus. Dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun 2007, PDB kuartal III menunjukkan pertumbuhan sebesar 6,1 persen. Bahkan, secara kumulatif,
pertumbuhan ekonomi selama tiga kuartal pertama tahun 2008 menunjukkan
pertumbuhan 6,3 persen. Perkembangan itu sejalan leading indicator-nya, yaitu berbagai laporan keuangan yang dilakukan oleh berbagai perusahaan yang terdaftar di bursa saham Indonesia.

Perkembangan ”leading indicator”

Suatu hal yang menarik untuk membandingkan laporan keuangan kuartal III
berbagai emiten dengan angka PDB yang dikeluarkan BPS. Berbagai perusahaan emiten itu mencakup berbagai sektor dan bersifat menyeluruh. Karena itu, laporan mereka bisa dikatakan sebagai leading indicator dari angka PDB kita. Itu sebabnya ketika membaca laporan keuangan berbagai perusahaan itu, saya merasa cukup yakin bahwa sampai dengan kuartal III, krisis perekonomian global belum membawa dampak yang signifikan bagi dunia usaha kita. Barangkali dampak yang terasa langsung adalah ruginya beberapa investasi keuangan yang dilakukan oleh masyarakat Indonesia, terutama di negara tetangga maupun di dalam negeri.

Ini berarti yang terpengaruh adalah ”kekayaan” (wealth) masyarakat kita dan
belum menyentuh pada ”pendapatan” (income) mereka. Sementara itu, BPS sebelumnya juga menyampaikan data produksi beras tahun 2008
(dari ramalan ketiga) yang dikatakan tumbuh lebih dari 5,0 persen. Demikian
juga dengan jagung dan tanaman lainnya. Perkembangan itu juga ditunjang oleh tetap tingginya ekspor Indonesia sampai dengan September 2008, sementara impor mengalami penurunan berarti.

hal yang mungkin memberi indikasi adanya perlambanan dalam kegiatan
ekonomi adalah sektor industri manufaktur. Indikasi ini, yang dikatakan
dilakukan melalui survei, agak berbeda dengan berbagai laporan dari berbagai
perusahaan itu. Produksi mobil, baik untuk penjualan domestik maupun ekspor, masih tetap mengalami pertumbuhan tinggi dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun 2007. Unilever juga melaporkan pertumbuhan penjualan sekitar 22 persen. Bahkan, kalau dihilangkan faktor kenaikan harganya pun, perusahaan barang kebutuhan rumah tangga itu masih membukukan kenaikan penjualan riil jauh di atas pertumbuhan PDB. Karena itu, rasanya masuk akal untuk melakukan rekonsiliasi antara hasil survei itu dan data laporan perusahaan yang dapat dengan mudah diperoleh di Bursa Efek Indonesia.

Berdasarkan berbagai catatan itu, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal III yang sebesar 6,1 persen adalah sejalan dengan berbagai informasi yang telah muncul sebelumnya, kecuali data industri manufaktur yang perlu ditelaah lebih lanjut.

PDB nominal kuartal III

Satu hal yang menarik dari laporan BPS itu adalah data PDB berdasarkan harga yang berlaku (PDB nominal). Pada saat BPS mengeluarkan data PDB kuartal I di pertengahan Mei 2008, nilai PDB nominal kuartal itu dilaporkan sebesar Rp 1.122,1 triliun atau tumbuh sebesar 21,94 persen dibandingkan kuartal yang sama tahun sebelumnya.

Berdasarkan angka itu saya memiliki optimisme bahwa PDB nominal sepanjang tahun 2008 bukan tidak mungkin akan mencapai Rp 4.600 triliun. Namun, ternyata tiga bulan kemudian BPS melaporkan data PDB nominal kuartal II yang mencapai Rp 1.230,9 triliun. Berdasarkan data itu, saya mengubah prediksi saya mengenai PDB nominal sepanjang tahun 2008 menjadi Rp 4.700-Rp 4.900 triliun.

Dalam laporan BPS di kuartal III ini, ternyata PDB nominal dilaporkan mencapai
Rp 1.343,8 triliun atau mengalami pertumbuhan sekitar 30 persen dari periode
yang sama tahun sebelumnya. Dengan tercapainya jumlah itu, sepanjang tiga
kuartal pertama tahun 2008, PDB nominal kumulatif telah mencapai Rp 3.705,3 triliun. Angka ini kembali lebih tinggi dibandingkan prediksi saya sebelumnya sehingga kemudian saya merevisi lagi angka prediksi PDB nominal sepanjang tahun 2008 menjadi Rp 5.000 triliun atau bahkan mungkin akan lebih besar.

Mengingat nilai tukar rupiah baru mengalami pelemahan drastis pada Oktober, ini berarti PDB itu dalam mata uang dollar ada pada kisaran 400 miliar dollar AS. Ini berarti PDB sekitar 520 miliar dollar AS akan amat mungkin tercapai
sepanjang tahun 2008. Angka ini akan menghasilkan pendapatan per kapita sekitar 2.300 dollar AS, daya beli yang lumayan besar.
Di tengah situasi yang sering disebut krisis saat ini, bagi yang jeli
angka-angka itu tetap menjadi suatu kesempatan bisnis tersendiri.

Perkembangan pendapatan yang mungkin akan terpengaruh pada kuartal-kuartal mendatang akhirnya merupakan potensi pasar yang besar bagi berbagai industri manufaktur dan jasa untuk terus berkembang pada tahun-tahun mendatang.

Indonesia GDP per capita will reach USD 2,300 by the end of 2008. A remarkable achievement despite the global economy crisis. :banana::banana:

^^ let's wait til this year over DJ... Ntar kalau salah info kita kecewa lagi... :)

you're right, let's just wait till this year is over and see the result at the end :)

Artikel yang bagus untuk membedakan pengertian Resesi dengan Depresi yang saat ini sering dibincangkan .....

Artikel ini ditulis oleh Chief Economist ANZ yang saya kenal baik ....

Silakan Download Disini (http://www.anz.com/documents/economics/The%20difference%20between%20recession%20and%20depression%20Nov%202008.pdf)

^^ not a bad article though.. ;)

Pertumbuhan Ritel Modern Diperkirakan Anjlok pada 2009

Jum'at, 19 Desember 2008 | 21:32 WIB

TEMPO Interaktif, Jakarta: Pengusaha ritel modern memperkirakan pertumbuhan penjualan pada 2009 akan anjlok hingga 15 persen. "Tahun ini ritel bisa tumbuh 20 persen menjadi Rp 70 triliun. Namun, tahun depan sepertinya cuma tumbuh lima persen," ujar Ketua Umum Asosiasi Pengusaha Ritel Indonesia Benjamin J. Mailool dalam jumpa pers di Senayan City, Jakarta, Jumat (19/12).

Penurunan pertumbuhan akan terjadi sebagai imbas krisis global. "Sulitnya keadaan ekonomi membuat daya beli masyarakat berkurang," kata Benjamin. Pasokan barang juga diramalkan akan terganggu karena pemasok kesulitan memperoleh kredit dari perbankan. Krisis finansial juga akan menghambat pertumbuhan sektor properti, sehingga ekspansi ritel sulit terlaksana.

Namun, pengusaha ritel berharap pemilihan umum 2009 bisa menyumbang pendapatan. "Kami memperkirakan tiap calon legislatif akan membelanjakan sekitar Rp 200 juta menjelang kampanye," tutur Benjamin. Dengan jumlah calon anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat yang hampir 12 ribu orang saja, dana yang akan diguyurkan tak kurang dari Rp 2,4 triliun.

Untuk mengatasi krisis, peritel akan melakukan beragam efisiensi, seperti penghematan listrik dan pemangkasan biaya yang tak begitu diperlukan. "Tak tertutup kemungkinan, kami mengurangi margin keuntungan untuk menarik pembeli," ujar Ketua Harian Asosiasi Tutum Rahanta. Perbaikan pelayanan juga akan dilakukan peritel untuk mempertahankan loyalitas konsumen. Tutum menambahkan iklan dan promosi akan makin gencar mereka lakukan tahun depan.

BUNGA MANGGIASIH

Indonesia GDP per capita will reach USD 2,300 by the end of 2008. A remarkable achievement despite the global economy crisis. :banana::banana:

Inilah yang terjadi dengan paradigma pertumbuhan ekonomi [neo-liberalisme] yang diagung-agungkan selama ini .. Pemerintah lebih mementingkan pertumbuhan ... bukan kualitas ... Lebih memihak kepada Pemodal/Korporasi .. bukan kepada rakyat kecil ...

Konsumsi, Resesi, dan Kemiskinan
18 Desember 2008
ALI KHOMSAN

Setiap ada pembagian makanan, selalu terjadi rebutan. Ini mengindikasikan bangsa ini masih miskin secara ekonomi, serta miskin etika ketertiban, antre, dan disiplin.

Mengapa rakyat kita rela antre berjam-jam dan berebutan kupon, misalnya daging kurban? Karena mereka jarang makan daging. Rendahnya konsumsi daging tecermin dari data yang menunjukkan, pada tahun 2005 rata-rata konsumsi daging hanya 7,1 kg/kapita/tahun, lebih kecil dibanding Malaysia (48 kg), Thailand (25 kg), atau Filipina (18 kg).

Pada tahun yang sama bangsa Indonesia hanya minum susu 6,8 liter/kapita/tahun, sedangkan Malaysia 25 liter, Thailand 24.9 liter, dan Filipina 11.3 liter. Dengan peningkatan konsumsi susu yang amat lambat, diprediksi kita baru bisa mengejar Malaysia setelah 120 tahun. Bahkan, jika kita ingin menyamai AS yang konsumsi susunya 100 liter, diperlukan waktu enam abad. Untuk konsumsi telur, kita juga masih tertinggal, yakni Indonesia 50 butir/kapita/tahun, Malaysia 246 butir, dan Thailand 130 butir.

Terjemahan gambaran itu, hanya satu hari dalam seminggu rata-rata rakyat Indonesia bisa makan empat sehat lima sempurna. Enam hari sisanya, mereka menjadi vegetarian karena kemiskinan. Tak mengherankan jika 25 persen anak balita Indonesia tergolong stunted (pendek). Juga anak-anak usia sekolah banyak yang tak bisa mencapai tinggi badan optimal.

Kualitas konsumsi

Di tengah polemik swasembada pangan, kita disentak kenyataan, kualitas konsumsi bangsa kita tertinggal jauh dari negara-negara tetangga. Dari konsumsi pangan, potret kemiskinan kita mungkin membuat para pemimpin tidak bisa tidur nyenyak. Meski data BPS menunjukkan terjadi pengurangan rakyat miskin, tetapi kenyataan menunjukkan banyak masyarakat masih hidup susah dan makan seadanya.

Kemiskinan bangsa Indonesia mungkin akan kian parah saat tsunami resesi dunia menghampiri kita tahun 2009. Rendahnya permintaan produk ekspor dan PHK di mana-mana akan memunculkan gelombang besar pengangguran. Dampaknya, angka kemiskinan bakal meningkat. Menteri Keuangan kini masih bingung, siapa yang akan ditolong lebih dulu? Masyarakat yang kehilangan pekerjaan atau pengusaha yang mulai pingsan.

Dunia yang kurang adil telah menyebabkan kemiskinan kian sulit teratasi. Kemiskinan menjadi masalah dunia, bukan hanya bangsa Indonesia. Dari enam miliar penduduk bumi, 2,8 miliar di antaranya hanya berpenghasilan kurang dari 2 dollar AS/hari. Sekitar 1,2 miliar penduduk hidup dengan pendapatan kurang dari 1 dollar AS/hari.

Jika di negara kaya hanya satu dari 100 anak balita yang tidak dapat melangsungkan hidupnya, di negara miskin 20 anak dari 100 anak balita mati sebelum menginjak usia lima tahun. Lima puluh persen anak balita di negara miskin mengalami kurang gizi.

Kesejahteraan global dan perkembangan teknologi yang diraih manusia melaju seabad terakhir ini. Namun, pertumbuhan mencengangkan ini tidak terdistribusi secara adil. Rata-rata penghasilan masyarakat di 20 negara terkaya adalah 37 kali lipat dibandingkan 20 negara termiskin.

Evolusi program pengurangan kemiskinan telah terjadi sejak 50 tahun lalu. Pada tahun 1950-an dan 1960-an, investasi berupa pembangunan sarana fisik dan infrastruktur dianggap sebagai strategi jitu untuk melawan kemiskinan. Sekitar tahun 1970-an, baru disadari, investasi seperti itu tidak cukup. Maka, mulai diterapkan kebijakan yang berorientasi pada perbaikan pendidikan dan kesehatan.

Ali Khomsan Guru Besar Departemen Gizi Masyarakat, FEMA IPB

Indonesia plans $9.2 bln infrastructure bill in 2009


By Dicky Kristanto and Tyagita Silka

JAKARTA, Dec 24 (Reuters) - Indonesia plans to spend 100 trillion rupiah ($9.2 billion) on infrastructure projects next year in a bid to sustain growth amid a global economic slowdown, a senior official said on Wednesday,
Article Controls

The stimulus comes as Indonesia heads for parliamentary and presidential elections in 2009, with economic growth, jobs, reforms and efforts to tackle corruption expected to top the campaign agenda.

'To speed up infrastructure development in 2009, we have started the tenders. So early in 2009 we hope that there will already be construction going on,' said Bambang Susantono, a deputy to the chief economics minister, in charge of infrastructure.

'The total is around 100 trillion rupiah, some 70 trillion rupiah will be channelled through ministries and institutions, while 30 trillion rupiah will be transferred to the provinces,' he said.

Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, an economist at Danareksa Research Institute, said economic growth in 2009 could receive a 'quite significant' boost if unspent funds from the 2008 budget were carried over and used for infrastructure projects as well.

While Indonesia was one of the main casualties of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and took years to recover, its economy has outpaced most of its peers this year, maintaining much of last year's momentum when growth hit a decade high of 6.3 percent.

Indonesia Likely to Export Rice in ’09


Indonesia looks set to export rice for the first time since the Suharto era, projecting a surplus of more than five million tons because of higher-quality seeds, said the State Logistics Agency, or Bulog. The government had earlier forecast excess supply, but gave no estimates of the amount.

“We will be ready to export rice in the third quarter next year, especially high-quality varieties such as Cianjur and Pandan Wangi rice,” said Mustafa Abubakar, president director of the agency, on Tuesday.

Based on estimates made by the Ministry of Agriculture, next year Indonesia will produce 63 million tons of dried unhusked rice, or GKG, which will be processed into

35.3 million tons of finished rice. The National Statistic Agency, or BPS, expects the country to produce

60.1 million tons of GKG, or 33.6 million tons of processed rice this year.

With domestic rice demand projected to remain at 30 million tons next year, Indonesia may have a surplus of more than five million tons, Abubakar said. Most, including as much as 1.5 million tons of medium-quality rice, could be exported in third-quarter 2009, he said.

The government would likely be careful in exporting medium-quality rice because it has become a staple food for most Indonesians, he said. Bulog is also contemplating stockpiling some of the expected surplus for emergency needs, such as natural disasters or droughts.

Rice production has been rising this year because a government program has been distributing hybrid and high-quality seeds that offer farmers higher yields. These seeds have been planted in about 80 percent of the country’s rice paddies.

Production has fallen for the last 16 years. Domestic shortages have led the government to import rice, an unpopular move with farmers.

Bungaran Saragih, an academic at the Bogor Institute of Agriculture, or IPB, said on Tuesday that Bulog should only export rice if Indonesia has enough supply to meet domestic needs.

Bulog should also determine whether the nation’s rice will be competitively priced on the international market, he said. If domestic rice prices are still too high, he said, there will be no reason to export the grain because no one will buy it.

“With the same quality, people will prefer cheaper rice,” Bungatan said. “If domestic prices in third-quarter 2009 are lower than international prices, we can export.”

The country’s capacity to feed itself has long been a political issue, and self-sufficiency in rice production has been a matter of national pride since Suharto entered office.

Kredit Macet
Bisnis Properti di Tubir Jurang?

Pertahanan para pelaku usaha properti di Tanah Air mulai jebol. Imbas krisis finansial global telah menggerus pundi-pundi mereka, lantaran perbankan memperketat likuiditas sebagai bentuk kehati-hatian dalam menyikapi krisis keuangan global. Kondisi itu membuat kucuran kredit konstruksi melambat. Padahal, kredit konstruksi masih menjadi amunisi untuk menjalankan proyek-proyek properti.

Karena situasi makin menjepit, para pengembang akhirnya tak bisa melanjutkan proyek mereka. Satu per satu pembangunan properti mulai terbengkalai. Diawali dari proyek hunian kelas atas yang terkena dampak langsung krisis keuangan global hingga perumahan kelas bawah. Para pengembang pun mulai dihantui bayang-bayang kredit macet. Dengan suku bunga pinjaman 15%-18% dan BI rate 9,25%, pengembang mengaku mulai kesulitan mengangsur kredit konstruksi ke bank.

"Pada saat ini, penurunan pasar rumah susun sederhana milik (rusunami) dan rumah sederhana sehat (RSh) sebesar 50%. Ini mengancam pembangunan 150.000 unit perumahan nonsubsidi," kata Wakil Ketua Real Estate Indonesia (REI) Bidang Rusunami, Muhamad Nawir. Sudah begitu, pengembang tetap harus membayar cicilan bunga konstruksi ke bank. Tentu saja ini menggerus modal pinjaman dari bank, termasuk modal sendiri. Karenanya, pengembang mulai megap-megap membayar cicilan. Nawir memperkirakan, kini tingkat kredit macet di sektor properti mencapai Rp 5 trilyun.

Kegelisahan para pengembang sebenarnya mulai menyeruak pada awal Oktober lalu. Ketika itu, Bank Indonesia (BI) menaikkan suku bunga acuan (BI rate) hingga 25 basis poin menjadi 9,5%. Buntutnya, perbankan ikut menaikkan suku bunga kreditnya. Meski BI akhirnya menurunkan BI rate menjadi 9,25%, ternyata suku bunga kredit tidak beranjak turun. Belakangan, perbankan justru menghentikan kucuran kredit konstruksi. Akibatnya, dalam sepekan ini, para pengembang mulai dihantui mimpi buruk.

Perlambatan kredit properti itu diakui Direktur Utama PT Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN), Iqbal Latanro. Menurut Iqbal, kenaikan suku bunga kredit akan memperlambat penyaluran kredit baru atau ekspansi kredit di sektor perumahan. Kondisi itu diprediksi berlanjut tahun depan. BTN termasuk bank yang paling gede menyalurkan kredit properti, baik kredit pemilikan rumah (KPR) dan kredit pemilikan apartemen (KPA) maupun kredit konstruksi bagi pengembang.

Situasinya makin rumit, lantaran kondisi di bursa saham juga tidak mendukung. Rontoknya saham-saham unggulan membuat BTN menunda penawaran saham perdana (IPO) pada tahun ini, yang direncanakan sebesar 30% saham atau senilai lebih dari Rp 1 trilyun. Padahal, sekitar 90% dana dari lantai bursa itu akan dipakai untuk ekspansi kredit.

Tidak hanya BTN yang dilanda kesulitan. Bank-bank lain penyalur kredit konstruksi, KPR, dan KPA juga terbelit krisis finansial. Terkait prinsip kehati-hatian, perbankan menjadi lebih selektif dalam mengucurkan kredit perumahan.

Sejauh ini, bank sudah mengucurkan total kredit konstruksi sekitar Rp 120 trilyun untuk membiayai 20.000 apartemen, 50.000 rusunami, dan 100.000 RSh. "Yang paling menderita adalah pengembang segmen bawah yang tidak disubsidi. Di sinilah kredit mulai macet," ungkap Nawir.

Pengamat Properti Ali Tranghada memprediksi, bila pemerintah tidak segera menurunkan BI rate ke level 8%, nilai kredit macet alias non-performing loan (NPL) pada 2009 bakal meningkat hingga 8% dari perkiraan semula 3,2%. "Artinya, kredit yang macet pada 2009 bisa mencapai Rp 8 trilyun," ujar Ali.

Kenaikan suku bunga kredit menyebabkan sebagian pengembang diliputi ketidakpastian, sehingga cenderung wait and see. Beberapa pengembang bahkan mengambil ancang-ancang untuk menunda proyek baru mereka yang mestinya dimulai pada awal 2009. Meskipun mereka menyadari bahwa penundaan proyek pembangunan yang berlarut-larut akan menuai kerugian.

Ketua Dewan Pimpinan Pusat REI Teguh Satria mengakui, gara-gara krisis, target penjualan properti nasional pada tahun ini drop menjadi Rp 35 trilyun dari target semula sekitar Rp 40 trilyun. Namun ia tetap optimistis, tahun depan NPL perbankan untuk kredit properti tidak akan membengkak, lantaran kondisi permodalan pengembang jauh lebih baik ketimbang krisis ekonomi 10 tahun lalu.

Menurut Teguh, pengembang perumahan sudah kebal krisis. Terbukti, ketika situasi ekonomi memburuk dan mengguncang Indonesia pada 1998 serta 2005, sektor properti masih bisa bertahan. Ketika itu, gejolak perekonomian mengguncang pasar perumahan hingga pembangunan proyek terhenti, investasi baru tertunda, dan target pembangunan RSh untuk masyarakat berpenghasilan rendah tidak tercapai.

Memang krisis moneter pada 1998 bagaikan mimpi buruk bagi pelaku industri properti. Suku bunga kredit konstruksi membengkak hingga 50%. Perbankan menghentikan pemberian KPR sehingga memukul daya beli masyarakat. Konsumen yang sudah membayar uang muka 30% batal membeli rumah. Sebagian besar proyek perumahan pun tak terjual.

Padahal, pengembang telanjur menggunakan dana bank untuk membiayai konstruksi. Sejumlah pengembang perumahan akhirnya bangkrut karena persoalan cash flow, sehingga pengembalian kredit ke perbankan menjadi macet. Proyek properti komersial yang sebagian mengandalkan utang pihak asing juga tersendat, baik proyek apartemen, kondominium, hotel, maupun gedung-gedung tinggi.

Ketika kondisi ekonomi mulai membaik, industri properti mulai menggalang kekuatan baru. Namun, belum usai berbenah, perekonomian Indonesia kembali terguncang pada 2005 gara-gara kenaikan harga BBM hingga dua kali lipat. Guncangan ini membuat harga bahan bangunan dan harga rumah melambung. Pada saat itu, BI rate yang melesat hingga 12,5% mengerek suku bunga kredit konstruksi menjadi 17%-18%.

Pasar properti pun mendadak lesu. Pengembang terpaksa berhemat dan mengurangi margin keuntungan agar jualan rumahnya tetap lancar. Pengalaman pahit itu membuat pelaku usaha properti mengubah strategi dalam menyusun struktur permodalan. Sebagian pengembang besar, yang tadinya bergantung pada pinjaman dengan rasio utang terhadap modal (debt of equity ratio) cukup tinggi, mulai menggalang pendanaan proyek bersama pengembang lainnya. Misalnya, Agung Podomoro Group bergandengan tangan dengan Pikko Group.

Ada pula pengembang yang melepaskan saham ke publik guna mendukung permodalan, antara lain PT Gapura Prima. Sejumlah pengembang proyek perumahan kelas menengah juga menerapkan strategi membangun rumah berdasarkan pesanan dan tidak lagi menawarkan rumah siap huni (ready stock) untuk mengurangi risiko pembiayaan.

Pengamat properti Panangian Simanungkalit menilai, pengalaman pahit industri properti pada 1998 dan 2005 harusnya menjadi pelajaran berharga untuk mengurangi ketergantungan pada kredit perbankan. Menurut dia, skema kredit perbankan dinilai kurang cocok dengan proyek properti. Sebab kredit perbankan merupakan pendanaan jangka pendek, sedangkan proyek properti adalah proyek jangka panjang. Akibatnya, sewaktu suku bunga kredit naik, pengembang kelimpungan.

Konsumen cenderung lebih bisa bertahan karena rumah sudah menjadi kebutuhan dasar, sehingga mereka akan berupaya sekuat tenaga untuk membeli rumah sesuai dengan kemampuan. "Namun konsumen selama ini cenderung menjadi 'pelengkap penderita' karena penyediaan rumah selalu lebih sedikit dibandingkan dengan permintaan. Informasi buat konsumen pun sangat terbatas," tutur Panangian.

Heru Pamuji

Roy Morgan Update: In these turbulent times, where is the household rupiah going?
Debnath Guharoy

What a year it's been. By any yardstick, 2008 was an exceptional one for most people regardless of age, gender or geography. In the turmoil, the established economic order is in question around the world.

Many readers of this column will have lost significant chunks of their investments, seen their assets devalued, or both.

But to the overwhelming majority of Indonesians, the rising cost of food and fuel took a particularly heavy toll on their everyday lives in the first half of 2008. However, later in the year, prices of many household essentials actually came down; to use that old clich*, change is the only constant.

But the need to know the facts during these for better or for worse changes is fundamental. To measure the impact of these powerful influences on our roller coaster lives, Roy Morgan Research completed a special survey at the end of October, conducted across a broad cross-section of society nationwide.

A total of 1917 respondents were interviewed. They were asked what percentage of their household's monthly expenditure was spent on primary items.

To start with the basics, Indonesia's fundamental divide of "haves" and "have-nots" at a ratio of 40:60 was reconfirmed yet again.

In answer to the question "does any member of this household regularly save a percentage of monthly income", only 41 percent of respondents said yes. In other words, 59 percent of households do not save any money each month.

Similarly, 55 percent do not spend anything on the home itself, by way mortgage, rent or repairs. That's because the modest home is more than likely to be a generational hand-me-down, usually housing an extended family.

Most disturbing is the revelation that food comprises a major portion of the domestic budget for most homes. Fifty-nine percent of households spend 30-50 percent of their monthly budget on food alone. For another 15 percent of the population, more than half the money is literally eaten up. About half of all households spend between 5 and 10 percent of their budgets on transport and another 5-10 percent on utilities such as electricity, gas and kerosene.

Forty-one percent of households spend 10 to 20 percent on education, even though public schools are supposedly state funded. Meanwhile 35 percent of households spend 5 to 10 percent of their monthly budget on health care costs.

While most homes spend between 5 and 20 percent of their budgets on "other" expenses including clothes, detergents, personal hygiene products and the like, real discretionary expenditure is a luxury enjoyed by a small fraction of society.

Recent dips in the price of essentials like food and fuel have already had a positive impact on consumer confidence, across all stratum of society. With prices in global markets on the decline, the lift of spirits in Indonesia is expected to continue for a few more months yet.

But the tide will again turn, when the impact of declining exports, a consequence of declining consumer demand from developed countries in recession, bites into the Indonesian economy.

There is no silver bullet for the major challenges facing Indonesia, compounded now by the problems gripping the major economies of the world.

There has perhaps been no better time for Indonesia to look inwards, without abandoning the many links built successfully with the global marketplace. Handouts cannot fight unemployment, but two engines of growth can indeed make an impact.

The first is public spending on infrastructure. Beg, borrow or steal, every rupiah spent on developing Indonesia's infrastructure can only pay rich dividends when times get better.

For the next five years, every job created and every rupiah spent on building roads and bridges, ports and transport systems, schools and hospitals will not only create jobs immediately but build essential assets for the future.

The second is helping to strengthen the backbone of any economy, small business. One particular area hungry for attention is agriculture. For a largely rural population, Indonesia imports too much of its food.

Offering incentives, advice and assistance to encourage more farmers to grow food is now a national necessity, not a nicety. These are crucial to the country's well-being in the turbulent, unpredictable times ahead. There are no easy alternatives.

These opinions are based on reliable, regular insights from around the country. Roy Morgan Single Source watches society, products and consumers, every week.

With over 25,000 respondents annually, it is projected to reflect the views of almost 90 percent of the population 14 years and older, both urban and rural. The reports are updated every 90 days. Any significant shifts in the nation's attitude and people's behavior become immediately visible.

The writer can be contacted at Debnath.Guharoy@roymorgan.com

PT Dirgantara Menang Tender US$ 94,5 Juta
Senin, 29 Desember 2008 | 16:39 WIB

TEMPO Interaktif, Seoul: PT Dirgantara Indonesia menang dalam tender internasional pengadaan empat pesawat penjaga pantai untuk Korea Selatan senilai US$ 94,5 juta. Direktur Utama PT Dirgantara Indonesia Budi Santoso dan Chief of Director General Contract Management Agency Chung Soon Mok menandatangani kontrak jual-beli tersebut di Seoul, Senin.

Direktur Aircraft Integration PT Dirgantara Budiwuraskito menjelaskan, setelah melewati serangkaian uji unjuk kerja dan komersial, pesawat CN 235-110 versi militer keluaran PT Dirgantara berhasil menyisihkan pesaing dari Spanyol, Amerika Serikat, dan Israel. "Indonesia dinilai mampu mengkombinasikan unjuk kerja dan nilai komersial yang pas," ujar Budi kepada Tempo.

Pesawat CN 235-110, ia memaparkan, memiliki jangkauan jelajah 1.150 mil laut (nautical miles) serta sanggup beroperasi hingga delapan jam dengan membawa delapan orang di dalam kabin yang nyaman. "Spesifikasi teknisnya hanya kalah oleh pesawat EADS-CASA dari Spanyol, yang bisa menjangkau hingga 1.200 mil laut," kata Budi. Dari segi unjuk kerja, CN 235-110 menempati posisi kedua, disusul Amerika Serikat dan Israel.

Bambang Harymurti | Bunga Manggiasih

http://www.tempo.co.id/hg/ekbis/2008/12/29/brk,20081229-152939,id.html
-----

Selamat untuk PT DI.

Masyarakat terbiasa berpergian ke Malaysia atau Singapura, bukan hanya untuk berlibur tapi juga berkunjung ke rumah saudara, sekedar merayakan IMLEK ataupun IDUL FITRI. Bisnis2 kecil, ataupun berobat sederhana masyarakat pesisir pun sudah jamak dilakukan di tanah sebrang selat.

Ironis sekali dengan adanya ketentuan FISKAL terbaru Pemerintah Pusat (yang gak ngerti rasanya tinggal bertetangga dan punya keluarga yang tinggal di negara orang), justru hanya akan membuat Penduduk RIau, SUmatra Utara, Sumatra Barat, dan Kepulauan RIau kesusahan. Karena, kini kami harus membayar fiskal yang bahkan jauh lebih mahal dari harga tiket kapal itu .

Kalau asumsi bahwa hanya orang kaya dan berduit saja yang bisa berjalan ke luar negeri. ITU SALAH BESAR. KARENA ANGGAPAN ITU TIDAK BERLAKU buat saudara2 kita di Riau, Kepri, Kalimantan Barat, Papua, dan NTT. Lintas batas adalah hal yang biasa. Bahkan keluarga nelayan sederhana di Kabupaten Bengkalis , RIau saja ... biasa merayakan hari raya di tanah sebrang dan sebaliknya.

Keluarga kami yang di tanah sebrang, ketika harus kembali ke negaranya mereka BAYAR FISKAL. Itulah kenapa lebih banyak Keluarga dari Pihak Indonesia yang berkunjung ke Malaysia karena mereka bebas fiskal. Keluarga yang dari Malaysia jarang berkunjung karena mereka mesti bayar fiskal untuk keluar dari Indonesia.

Sekarang, sudahlah sebelumnya keluarga kami di tanah sebrang "sedikit bersusah hati" untuk menyebrang ke SUmatra karena beban FISKAL. Kini, beban itu semakin MAHAL dan BERAT. DItambah terjangan krisis global yang mulai datang mengancam.

Ck ck ck ck, .....:bash:

Fiskal LN Kontra-Produktif
Rabu, 31 Desember 2008
PEKANBARU (RP) - Kebijakan baru soal pengenaan fiskal luar negeri saat ini dinilai masih kurang sosialisasi. Oleh karena itu Ketua Kamar Dagang dan Industri (Kadin) Riau, Arsyadjuliandi Rahman MBA meminta pihak otoritas pajak untuk gencar melakukan sosialisasi pada masyarakat dunia usaha.

‘’Penerapannya per 1 Januari 2009 tetapi sosialisasinya masih kurang padahal dampaknya besar sekali,’’ ujar Ketua Kadin Riau tersebut kepada Riau Pos, Selasa (30/12). Menurut Andi dampaknya besar itu karena selama ini masyarakat Riau mendapat fasilitas bebas fiskal luar negeri karena terikat perjanjian kerja sama dengan IMS-GT dan IMT-GT.

Dengan berlakunya aturan baru tersebut, lanjutnya, maka bagaimana nasib perjanjian itu jadi tidak jelas apakah masih berlaku atau dicabut. ‘’Kami menilai kebijakan ini kontraproduktif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah maupun nasional,’’ ujarnya.

Lebih lanjut ia mengatakan bahwa dengan adanya aturan ini maka cost orang ke luar negeri menjadi lebih besar dari selama ini. ‘’Misalkan selama ini orang bisa berdagang lintas batas di daerah Riau yang berdekatan dengan negeri jiran ini maka setelah aturan itu berlaku tidak bebas lagi karena harus bayar fiskal,’’ ujarnya.

Bahkan, lanjutnya lagi, biaya fiskalnya bisa lebih besar dari biaya transportasi ke negeri jiran tersebut. ‘’Ini faktanya dan jujur harus kami katakan sungguh kita di Riau sangat menyayangkan kebijakan ini,’’ ujarnya lagi.

Menurutnya lagi memang bila tidak ada kelonggaran lagi mestinya sosialisasi dapat dilakukan dengan gencar sehingga arus orang masuk dan ke luar negeri benar-benar mengerti aturan tersebut. ‘’Bayangkan jika aturan itu dilakukan sedangkan orang belum mengerti maka bisa terjadi puluhan kegagalan urusan ke luar negeri karena mereka yang belum punya NPWP harus bayar fiskal bila ke luar negeri,’’ ujarnya lagi.(fiz/mar)

Sumber : JPNN , RIAUPOS

Sunset Policy Pajak Mundur Dua Bulan
Rabu, 31 Desember 2008

JAKARTA (RP) - Kebijakan penghapusan sanksi pajak atau sunset policy yang seharusnya berakhir hari ini, 31 Desember 2008, diperpanjang pemerintah. Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati menyatakan sunset policy diperpanjang dua bulan sampai Februari 2009.

Keputusan itu diambil untuk memberikan kesempatan terakhir kepada wajib pajak yang belum sempat memanfaatkan fasilitas keringanan tersebut. Sri menyampaikan keputusan tersebut setelah dipanggil Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono di Kantor Presiden , Selasa (30/12).

Selain Sri, Menteri ESDM Purnomo Yusgiantoro serta Ketua Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Rusman Heriawan juga dipanggil mendadak oleh presiden. Menurut Ani, sapaan Sri Mulyani, dalam pertemuan itu, presiden meminta evaluasi kebijakan-kebijakan perekonomian yang telah dikeluarkan selama 2008, termasuk soal sunset policy.

Pemerintah akan memperpanjang sunset policy karena membeludaknya pendaftaran wajib pajak pada detik-detik akhir penutupan sunset policy 2008. ’’Sunset policy akan diperpanjang sampai Februari. Tapi, jangan tunggu sampai 28 Februari lagi. Ini adalah (perpanjangan) yang terakhir,’’ ujarnya.

Perpanjangan tersebut, menurut dia, memerlukan landasan hukum yang kuat. ’’Kami cari landasan hukum yang paling kuat supaya masyarakat kita sebagai pelaksana bisa jalan,’’ ungkapnya. Landasan hukum yang dimaksud, kata dia, bisa dikeluarkan dalam bentuk perpu.

Perpanjangan tersebut, lanjut Ani, akan diimbangi dengan sosialisasi penuh di berbagai daerah. Petugas pajak akan bertemu langsung dengan para wajib pajak individual serta para pelaku lainnya. ’’Banyak yang merasakan bahwa mereka terpanggil untuk menjadi wajib pajak,’’ ungkapnya.

Penerimaan pajak saat ini, kata dia, sudah mencapai 7 persen di atas target. Saat ini masih dihitung lebih detail untuk segera dilaporkan kepada presiden setelah penutupan tahun buku.

Sunset policy merupakan kebijakan pemberian fasilitas perpajakan sesuai UU Ketentuan Umum dan Tata Cara Perpajakan yang baru. Dalam kebijakan itu diberikan penghapusan sanksi administratif untuk wajib pajak penghasilan perorangan atau badan.

Wajib pajak orang pribadi atau wajib pajak badan yang membetulkan surat pemberitahuan (SPT) tahunan PPh tahun-tahun sebelumnya diberi fasilitas penghapusan sanksi administrasi, sepanjang pembetulan tersebut dilakukan selambatnya 28 Februari 2009.

Sanksi administrasi selama ini berupa bunga atas pajak yang tidak atau kurang dibayar sebesar 2 persen per bulan dari saat seharusnya terutang.

Dalam kebijakan tersebut, pemerintah memberikan kesempatan seluas-luasnya kepada wajib pajak untuk memiliki nomor pokok wajib pajak (NPWP). Pemilik NPWP akan menikmati kebijakan sunset policy.

Selain itu, pemerintah menyiapkan aturan yang membebaskan tarif fiskal ke luar negeri (FLN) bagi wajib pajak orang pribadi (WP OP) dalam negeri yang memiliki NPWP. Bagi yang tidak memiliki NPWP dan berusia 21 tahun, ditetapkan Rp 2,5 juta untuk angkutan udara dan Rp 1 juta untuk angkutan laut tiap kali keberangkatan ke luar negeri. Berbagai fasilitas bagi pemegang NPWP itulah yang memicu antrean mendaftar di seluruh kantor pajak di Indonesia.

Sri Mulyani mengungkapkan, pihaknya kemarin sangat kewalahan melayani pendaftaran wajib pajak di kantor-kantor pajak. Bahkan, ada wajib pajak yang sampai mengeluh karena pendaftaran membeludak. ’’Sampai ada yang bilang, saya mau kasih uang ke negara saja kok susah. Padahal, tadinya kita yang dikejar-kejar untuk bayar,’’ ujarnya.(tom/erm/kim)

^^ Maksudnya bagus .. tapi "Policy"-nya dibuat nggak memperhatikan situasi masing-masing daerah. Sama juga dengan "Policy" membatasi import barang hanya boleh dilakukan melalui 5 pelabuhan di Indonesia doang ...

Tapi jangan khawatir .. gue yakin kebijakan tersebut nggak bakal berjalan mulus mengingat masih "bobroknya" aparat kita .. :banana::banana::banana:

Itulah Indonesia ... Hahahaha ...

Indonesia economy may still grow 6 pct in 2008 -cbank gov


JAKARTA, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Indonesia may still achieve full-year growth of 6 percent despite a mild slowdown in the fourth quarter, central bank governor Boediono said on Wednesday.

'Economic growth in the world is slowing down, and the liquidity is also tight, but if we can increase domestic growth and with a fiscal stimulus, that will help the economic growth,' Boediono said.

'There will be a slowdown in the fourth quarter but for the full-year 2008 around 6 percent is still possible.'

The central bank's interest rate policy meeting is scheduled for January 7.

When asked about the outlook for the BI rate, Boediono said 'We will see the monetary condition at the beginning of the month and see what the suitable BI rate is.'

Indonesia Meets Rice Needs in 2008 as Output Gains
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By Yoga Rusmana and Naila Firdausi

Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia produced 38.6 million metric tons of milled rice this year, a 5.5 percent gain from 2007 as more farmers used better seeds, enabling the region’s most populous country to meets its own needs for the staple.

“We have achieved self-sufficiency in rice this year, with output exceeding consumption” estimated at 37 million tons, said Bayu Krisnamurthi, deputy to the coordinating minister for economic affairs, and the official in charge of agriculture.

Meeting the self-sufficiency target has been a fundamental goal of government policy for decades to ensure that Indonesia is able to feed its 243 million people without having to turn to imports. Rice prices surged to a record earlier this year, stoking concern about possible shortages in the global market.

The stockpile of rice in warehouses run by Bulog, Indonesia’s state food company, stood at 1.4 million tons at the end of this year, Krisnamurthi told reporters today in Jakarta. Bulog bought a record 3.1 million tons from farmers this year to help stabilize prices and secure supplies to sell at subsidized rates to the country’s 19.1 million poorest households, he said.

Indonesia imported about 1.2 million tons of rice last year, mostly from Vietnam and Thailand. Rice output may increase to 40 million tons next year, which may allow exports of as much as 2 million tons, the most in at least 50 years, Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono said in October.

To contact the reporters on this story: Naila Firdausi in Jakarta at nfirdausi@bloomberg.net; Yoga Rusmana in Jakarta at yrusmana@bloomberg.net.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2_ashOV9rb8

Indonesia Says Economy Probably Expanded 6.2 Percent in 2008

By Naila Firdausi

Jan. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s economy may have expanded 6.2 percent in 2008 from a year earlier, even as growth slowed in the second half, the Finance Ministry said.

Inflation was 11.4 percent last year, higher than targeted, while the budget deficit was lower at 4.2 trillion rupiah ($378 million), the ministry said in a statement.

In its latest 2008 budget, the government forecast 6.4 percent economic growth, driven by consumption and commodity exports. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono yesterday said Southeast Asia’s biggest economy probably expanded 6 percent.

“Generally, economic indicators in 2008 were good although in the last few months they faced quite heavy pressure due to the global financial crisis,” the ministry said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Naila Firdausi in Jakarta at nfirdausi@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2hvLRw1airc

Asian Currencies: Rupiah, Ringgit Advance, Paring 2008 Drops

By Lilian Karunungan

Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah advanced, paring its biggest annual loss since 2000, on speculation companies are demanding fewer dollars after the central bank imposed curbs on speculative trading. The Malaysian ringgit strengthened.

The rupiah is the second-best performer this month among Asia’s 10 most-active currencies outside of Japan after the central bank said companies and individuals must get approval to buy more than $100,000 a month of foreign exchange. Taiwan’s currency pared this year’s decline on speculation local banks will trim corporate borrowing costs to combat an economic slump.

“Demand for the dollar is not too high,” said Rully Nova, a currency trader at PT Bank Himpunan Saudara in Jakarta. “Bank Indonesia has cut speculative trading in the rupiah.”

The rupiah gained 1.6 percent to 10,920 per dollar as of 3:36 p.m. in Jakarta, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The ringgit advanced 0.3 percent to 3.4675 per dollar, trimming this year’s decline to 4.6 percent.

The yen was set to complete its best year against the dollar in more than two decades on signs the U.S. economy is sinking deeper into recession. Consumer confidence is the lowest in at least 41 years and a slide in property prices gathered pace in October, according to U.S. reports published yesterday.

“The dollar is likely to weaken further into 2009,” said Norifumi Yoshida, vice president of the trading section in Singapore at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan’s second-largest bank by assets. “The U.S. recession will probably be prolonged as the data aren’t signaling any recovery at all.”

The yen strengthened to 90.27 per dollar from 90.34 yen in New York late yesterday. It surged 24 percent this year, the best performance among the world’s 16 most-active currencies.

Biggest Losers

South Korea’s won is the biggest loser this year among Asia’s 10 most-traded currencies excluding the yen, declining 26 percent versus the dollar. The next worst performers were India’s rupee and the Indonesian rupiah, which slid 19 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

The rupiah had its biggest yearly decline since 2000 as a global financial crisis sapped demand for emerging-market assets. Indonesia prohibited banks from entering into foreign-exchange transactions tied to “structured products,” which combine derivative deals with other instruments.

The currency is forecast to weaken to 12,560 in the first quarter before rebounding to 11,000 by the end of 2009, according to the median estimates of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. It’s climbed 12 percent this month on speculation the central bank was supporting the currency.

Weaker Ringgit

Malaysia’s ringgit had its first annual loss in four years as the global economic slump hurt exports and prompted overseas investors to favor safer bets than emerging markets. Overseas sales in October fell for the first time in 15 months and the government estimates the economy will expand at the weakest pace in eight years in 2009.

“In the first quarter of 2009, the ringgit will continue to decline as the fiscal deficit widens and inflows from portfolio flows and export earnings fall,” said Suresh Kumar Ramanathan, a rates and currency strategist at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. “It may decline to as low as 3.62 per dollar in the first quarter.”

Elsewhere, Singapore’s dollar gained 0.2 percent to S$1.4392 against the U.S. currency and Taiwan’s dollar was little changed at NT$32.860. Vietnam’s dong was at 17,485.50, from 17,469.50 yesterday. Financial markets in South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines were closed for holidays.

To contact the reporters on this story: Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at lkarunungan@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asn1jTA.FY9Q

Asia markets trade higher

(CNN) -- Major Asia and Pacific markets traded higher Tuesday in the waning days of a dismal year.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei closed 1.3 percent higher during an abbreviated final trading day of 2008. Despite the positive session, the index closed with its worst-ever annual percentage fall, losing 42.1 percent.

Elsewhere across the region, the KOSPI in Seoul was up 2.3 percent in afternoon trading, while Australia's All Ordinaries index was 1.3 percent higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng picked up 0.9 percent.

Stocks fell Monday on Wall Street, closing lower amid global tensions and downbeat corporate news.

The Dow Jones industrial average settled at 8,483.93, down 31.62 points or 0.37 percent, after falling more than 1.5 percent earlier in the session. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index retreated 3.38 points to 869.42. The Nasdaq composite fell 1.3 percent, 19.92 points, to 1,510.32.

Trading has been subdued recently, with many investors on vacation or holding off on large transactions until 2009. On Friday, stocks drifted higher in a thinly traded session but still ended the week lower.

For the year, all three major indexes are down sharply: The Dow is off nearly 36 percent versus last year; the S&P 500 has tumbled 41 percent; and the Nasdaq is off 42 percent.

Looking ahead, the Conference Board is due to release its December index of consumer confidence Tuesday morning. The index is expected to rise to a reading of 45.2 from 44.9 in November, still near the lower end of its historic range.

Also on Tuesday, a survey of purchasing managers in the Chicago area is expected to reveal further declines in manufacturing activity.

Monday's retreat came despite a lack of economic data, and many analysts warned that low participation could be amplifying the selloff.

"There's no buying going on," said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams in New York. "Everyone is sitting on their hands until the end of the year."

Still, the collapse of a high-profile venture and concerns about the world's political situation weighed on the market.

Shares of the nation's largest chemical company plummeted after a major deal with Kuwait's state-run petrochemical company fell apart.

Petrochemical Industries Co. decided Sunday to scrap a $17.4 billion deal to form a joint venture with Dow Chemical, citing the recent decline in oil prices.

The news called into question Dow's ability to repay some $13 billion in debt it will take on once its acquisition of rival Rohm & Haas closes in early 2009. Dow's stock fell nearly 19 percent and Rohm & Haas was down 16 percent on the news.

Also, investors are afraid that ongoing strife in the Middle East and tensions between India and Pakistan could destabilize fragile markets overseas.

"There's a lot of uncertainty in the world, which gives people less incentive to buy stocks," Rovelli said.

Israeli warplanes struck the Gaza Strip for a third day in response to mortar and rocket attacks. The attacks caused a short-lived rally in the oil market, with crude spiking above $42 a barrel Monday before retreating a bit, settling up $2.31 to $40.02 a barrel.

While the air strikes do not pose an immediate threat to oil installations, many analysts worry that the conflict could disrupt production in the oil-rich Middle East region.

Meanwhile, shares of oil companies Chevron and Exxon Mobil both rose moderately.

The market is also concerned about a possible confrontation between India and Pakistan over last month's militant attack on Mumbai.

Pakistan has denied reports that it has deployed large numbers of troops to its border with India in anticipation of military action. India blames Pakistan-based militants for the assault in which 179 people were killed.

Bank stocks were mostly lower despite the news that a consortium of private equity and hedge fund firms, including J.C. Flowers & Co and Dune Capital Management, is reportedly close to a deal to buy the assets of failed mortgage lender IndyMac.

Citigroup, Bank of America and J.P. Morgan all retreated.

In Europe, markets reopened after an extended Christmas break. London's FT-100 rose 2.4 percent, Frankfurt's DAX gained 1.6 percent, and the CAC-40 in Paris closed 0.4 percent higher.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/12/30/global.markets/index.html

Indonesia in 2009

As predicted before, Indonesia's economic growth in 2008 is lower than that in 2007 which is mainly caused by the global financial crisis. It reaches 6.13% this year, which is better than many many countries in the world. Keeping the pace above 6% is a great achievement amid global downturn, which also severely hits neighboring countries. I havent been informed yet about GDP growth of Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. But from my personal review, their growths do not even reach 6%. I am not too sure now.

Well, let's deal with even worse downturn in year ahead, export will fall, consumption will decrease, buying power will be lower, unemployment will grow, investment will be significantly lower. Indonesia must make a full use of its huge population, and benefit the (still) high domestic demand for some commodities. Indonesia may divert its market from overseas to domestic market, which is to me, enough to keep economy running in stable pace, and wait until the world economic condition recovers.

Indonesia, also needs to lower its import to a minimum level, to keep the $$$ running inside the fence, and instead, stimulate the economy by accelerating national infrastructure projects. I am sure, u are very much aware that in 2009, we'll have :

- New airport in medan, very modern, very futuristic design. It's KUALA NAMU airport

- Stream-Powered Electricity Plant in West Java which can supply up to 10,000 MW (gradually)

- Construction underway of 1,000 km highway from the west point to the east spot of Java island, should be ready in 2011.

- Jakarta aiport Terminal 3, for low cost carrier, and new runway for the giant Airbus A380.

- New tollroad in Makassar

- New farming land opening (14,000 hectares) in Papua

- New airport in Lombok, and Jambi will be ready.

many more.

Why those projects are essential? Millions will benefit from that, from direct workers, engineer, consultant, brick factory, cement factory, many more.

I DO really hope that indonesia's economy will be still above 6% by the end of 2009. Amien

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2009, INDONESIANS !

http://akhyari.blogspot.com/2008/12/indonesia-in-2009.html

http://www.detikfinance.com/images/content/2008/12/31/4/Setpres-dalam.jpg

Jakarta - Pemerintah telah menetapkan 7 prioritas untuk perekonomian Indonesia di tahun 2009. Mulai dari penanganan pengangguran hingga upaya mempertahankan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diperkirakan hanya sekitar 4,5% di tahun 2009.

Tujuh prioritas perekonomian 2009 itu disampaikan Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) dalam konferensi pers usai memimpin rapat koordinasi di Gedung Depkeu, Jakarta, Rabu (31/12/2008).

SBY mengungkapkan, dirinya mendengarkan laporan sekaligus memimpin rakor di Depkeu. Presiden mendengarkan laporan dan presentasi dari pejabat menko perekonomian sekaligus Menkeu. Kemudian dilanjutkan dengan pembahasan masalah-masalah fundamental dari pengelolaan APBN 2009.

"Sebagaimana diketahui, jajaran Depkeu malam ini akan kerja lembur untuk mencatat semua yang berkaitan dengan penerimaan negara. Lalu mengenai realisasi APBN 2008 pada posisi terkini, apakah itu penerimaan, belanja dan angka defisit. Dan juga implementasinya di kementerian/lembaga dan Pemda untuk mengetahui performa APBN seperti apa," jelas presiden.

Selain itu juga dilaporkan mengenai prospek ekonomi di 2009 yang dipengaruhi oleh perekonomian global. Berikut 7 hal yang menjadi prioritas dalam perekonomian 2009:

1. Mengatasi kemungkinan pengangguran baru akibat krisis perekonomian global.

2. Mengelola inflasi.

"Bulan ini saya mendapat informasi bahwa terjadi deflasi. Tahun depan mudah-mudahan akan lebih baik lagi," ujar presiden.

3. Menjaga pergerakan sektor riil.

"Oleh karena itu, kebijakan yang kita ambil seperti insentif fiskal oleh menteri keuangan itu untuk menyelamatkan sektor riil agar perusahaan menyelamatkan tenaga kerjanya sehingga tidak melakukan PHK," imbuh presiden.

4. Mempertahankan daya beli masyarakat.

"Tahun depan kan gaji akan kita naikkan lagi, demikian pula gaji ke-13. Bagi yang tidak memiliki gaji, kita ada berbagai program-program dalam APBN," jelasnya.

5. Melindungi masyarakat miskin. Pemerintah telah menyiapkan beberapa skim untuk program pengentasan kemiskinan.

6. Memelihara kecukupan pangan dan energi.

"Alhamdulillah beras kan tahun ini sudah mencapai swasembada. Energi seperti BBM dan gas sudah makin diminati masyarakat," ujarnya.

"Anda selalu memperhatikan harga internasional. Pergerakan harga minyak terus kita pantau dan pada saatnya kita sesaikan harga BBM dalam negeri sesuai harga minyak internasional dan juga kapasitas APBN," tambahnya.

7. Menjaga pertumbuhan ekonomi

Menurut presiden, pertumbuhan ekonomi 2008 yang mencapai 6% merupakan level yang cukup baik di masa krisis.

Namun karena semua negara mengkoreksi pertumbuhan ekonominya ke bawah tahun depan, kita harap tahun depan kita bisa memelihara angka pertumbuhan ekonomi yang pantas. Saya berharap bisa di atas 4,5%. Itu angka yang sangat realistis, bahkan kalau kita kerja keras bisa lebih dari itu. Jadi mari kita mulai tahun 2009 dengan penuh semangat," pungkas presiden.



(qom/qom)

sumber http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2008/12/31/183827/1061674/4/7-prioritas-perekonomian-ri-di-2009

Indonesia in 2009



- New airport in Lombok, and Jambi will be ready.

many more.

Why those projects are essential? Millions will benefit from that, from direct workers, engineer, consultant, brick factory, cement factory, many more.

I DO really hope that indonesia's economy will be still above 6% by the end of 2009. Amien

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2009, INDONESIANS !

http://akhyari.blogspot.com/2008/12/indonesia-in-2009.html

can't wait to see.. ;)

Pelabuhan Muara Sabak Pembuka Gerbang Ekspor-Impor Jambi

(Berita Daerah - Sumatra) - Provinsi Jambi termasuk salah satu daerah yang mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi cukup baik di Pulau Sumatera dalam beberapa tahun belakangan ini.

Cukup banyak komoditi daerah ini yang mampu menembus pasar luar negeri seperti batubara, sawit dan karet. Namun, hasil komoditi itu sebagian besar masih diekspor melalui pelabuhan di provinsi tetangga seperti Sumsel dan Sumbar, karena Jambi hingga kini belum mempunyai pelabuhan khusus ekspor yang representatif.

Padahal, salah satu sungai terbesar di daerah ini, yaitu Sungai Batanghari, yang alirannya hingga ke Muara Sabak di Kabupaten Tanjung Timur yang menjadi pintu keluar terdekat menuju laut lepas, memiliki nilai strategis untuk dijadikan sarana transportasi barang, namun akibat pendangkalan kondisinya makin kritis.

Kondisi ini mendorong pemerintah daerah setempat untuk mengoptimalkan pelabuhan yang sudah ada, pilihannya jatuh pada Pelabuhan Muara Sabak yang berjarak 132 Km sebelah timur laut Kota Jambi.

Pelabuhan Samudera Muara Sabak yang pembangunannya dilakukan oleh Pemprov Jambi dan Pemkab Tanjung Jabung Timur, jika sudah beroperasi penuh akan menjadi pintu gerbang ekonomi Jambi ke kawasan segitiga pertumbuhan Singapura-Batam dan Johor (Sibajo), daerah kerjasama Indonesia-Malaysia-Singapura Growth Triangle (IMS-GT) dan Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Traingle (IMT-GT) serta pasar APEC.

Pembukaan Pelabuhan Samudera Muara Sabak sudah dimulai sekitar tujuh tahun lalu, tapi tampaknya masih menyisakan kendala pada sarana infrastrukturnya. Kondisi ini yang akan terus dibenahi dan ditingkatkan mengingat pentingnya peran pelabuhan tersebut.

Sekalipun tantangannya masih berat, namun Pemprov Jambi bertekad segera mewujudkan pelabuhan tersebut dengan telah ditandatanganinya Nota Kesepahaman (MoU) tentang percepatan pembangunan Pelabuhan Muara Sabak antara Pemprov dan PT Pelabuhan Indonesia (Pelindo) II, oleh Gubernur Jambi Drs H Zulkifli Nurdin dan Direksi PT Pelindo II pada awal Nopember lalu.

Menurut Gubernur, operasionalisasi Pelabuhan Muara Sabak perlu segera diwujudkan mengingat Jambi sudah saatnya mempunyai sebuah pelabuhan besar (ekspor-impor) untuk mendorong dan mempercepat pembangunan Jambi dan masyarakatnya.

Satu-satunya pelabuhan utama Provinsi Jambi yaitu Pelabuhan Talang Duku sudah tidak memungkinkan untuk ditingkatkan menjadi pelabuhan yang lebih besar yang mampu menampung kapal-kapal ukuran besar.

Pelabuhan Muara Sabak jauh lebih memungkinkan untuk dikembangkan daripada Pelabuhan Talang Duku, sebab untuk menuju ambang batas luar (laut lepas) memiliki jarak cukup jauh mencapai lebih 180 mil, sehingga membutuhkan waktu tempuh lebih lama dibandingkan jarak Pelabuhan Muara Sabak ke ambang batas luar yang hanya berkisar 18 mil.

Jauhnya jarak pelabuhan Talang Duku tersebut juga menyebabkan upaya pengerukan kedalaman alur akibat pendangkalan yang sangat parah menjadi sangat mahal hingga mencapai Rp200 miliar.

Untuk mewujudkan pelabuhan ekspor-impor itu, pemerintah daerah baik provinsi maupun kabupaten akan mengupayakan membangun jalan, jembatan, jaringan listrik, dan fasilitas air bersih guna mendukung operasional Pelabuhan Muara Sabak.

"Kita harapkan percepatan pembangunan Muara Sabak itu sudah bisa dilakukan pertengahan tahun 2009," ujarnya.

Pelabuhan Muara Sabak dirancang untuk menjadi pelabuhan modern, dengan luas areal lahan daratan sekitar 189 hektare, sehingga cukup ideal untuk didesain sebagai pelabuhan yang terintegrasi dengan kawasan industri dan perdagangan.

Pelabuhan ini nantinya akan mampu menghadirkan pelayanan kegiatan terminal petikemas, terminal kargo, terminal curah kering dan curah cair, disamping itu didukung oleh area untuk industri, kegiatan distribusi barang dan perkantoran.

Saat ini Pelabuhan Muara Sabak hanya bisa disandari oleh kapal dengan bobot 3.000 DWT. Kedalaman di depan dermaga pada saat pasang surut 1,9 meter. Pelabuhan ini bila beroperasi penuh bisa melayani kapal dengan muatan 17.000 ton dengan panjang kapal maksimal yang bisa melakukan kegiatan adalah 160 meter.

Zulkifli Nurdin menyatakan, perkembangan Provinsi Jambi dalam AFTA (perdagangan bebas di kawasan ASEAN) sangat ditentukan oleh kemandirian daerah dalam membangun dirinya sendiri, karena itu Jambi harus memiliki outlet dan inlet, yaitu wahana yang menampung mobilitas barang dan jasa, terutama dalam kaitannya dengan ekspor dan impor.

Kawasan Muara Sabak sangat memungkinkan untuk dikembangkan sebagai "industrialisation and trading stimulator zone" yang tidak hanya untuk kepentingan Provinsi Jambi, tetapi juga daerah sekitar.

Jambi memang mengalami kerugian besar akibat belum memiliki pelabuhan ekspor, karena hampir 60 persen komoditi daerah itu diekspor melalui daerah lain, sementara Pelabuhan Muara Sabak secara geografis amat menguntungkan, karena tidak jauh dari Selat Malaka atau Laut China Selatan yang merupakan jalur transportasi kapal ekspor dari Singapura ke berbagai negara.

Ambisi Jambi untuk merealisasikan Pelabuhan Muara Sabak tidak main-main, setelah menandatangani MoU dengan PT Pelindo awal Nopember lalu, Gubernur Jambi melanjutkan perundingan dengan Direktur Utama Pelindo II A Syaifuddin dan Deputi Bidang Usaha Logistik dan Pariwisata Kantor Kementerian BUMN Harry Susetyo Nugroho.

Percepatan pembangunan Pelabuhan Muara Sabak diharapkan bisa dimulai tahun 2009 dan siap beroperasi tahun 2010, selama ini masing-masing pihak yaitu Pemprov Jambi dan Pelindo II akan menyelesaikan pekerjaan sarana dan prasarana yang dibutuhkan.

Tahap awal pada 2009 ini Pelindo akan mengalokasikan dana sebesar Rp50 miliar untuk mengembangkan pembangunan dermaga Pelabuhan Muara Sabak sepanjang 150 meter dan lebar 30 meter, serta sebagian sarana dan prasarana gudang dan pengerukan untuk mencapai kedalaman sekitar sembilan meter, sehingga bisa dirapati kapal berbobot mati 15.000 DWT.

Sementara itu, Pemprov Jambi juga akan mengembangkan areal seluas 200 Ha di seputar pelabuhan menjadi kawasan "Jambi Agro Industry Park" (JAIP) dengan mengajak para investor untuk ikut berpartisipasi mengembangkannya.

"Jika para investor mau menanamkan modal mengembangkan JAIP, Pemprov Jambi akan memberikan berbagai kemudahan seperti pembebasan biaya pajak selama lima tahun," kata Gubernur.

Dukungan untuk mempercepat pembangunan Pelabuhan Muara Sabak juga datang dari legislatif melalui Wakil Ketua DPRD Provinsi Jambi H Soewarno Surinta yang menyatakan dewan bersama eksekutif akan segera menganggarkan dana dalam APBD 2009.

Pengamat ekonomi Universitas Jambi Emilia Hamzah SE, ME, mengatakan, keberadaan Pelabuhan Muara Sabak sebagai pelabuhan ekspor impor akan mampu menjadikan daerah tersebut sebagai pusat perekonomian, terutama Kabupaten Tanjung Jabung Timur sebagai lokasi pelabuhan.

"Jika beroperasi penuh, Pelabuhan Muara Sabak akan makin mempercepat laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Provinsi Jambi secara makro," ujarnya.

Kedekatan wilayahnya dengan Singapura dan Malaysia, juga peluang besar untuk membuka kerjasama bagi peningkatan ekonomi Provinsi Jambi terutama bagi para investor untuk menanamkan modalnya di Jambi.

Untuk mendukung pengembangan Pelabuhan Muara Sabak, Pemprov Jambi sudah merencanakan untuk memperpendek jarak tempuh menuju ke pelabuhan Muara Sabak dari berbagai kabupaten dengan pembangunan jalan, termasuk membangun jembatan Batanghari II sepanjang 2.262 meter yang kini dalam tahap penyelesaian.

Dengan penghematan waktu tempuh itu, diharapkan sumber alam berupa hasil perkebunan, pertanian, perikanan dan pertambangan di Provinsi Jambi yang selama ini diangkut melalui pelabuhan daerah lain bisa dipusatkan di Muara Sabak.

Dengan demikian, kehadiran Pelabuhan Muara Sabak kelak tidak saja akan menjadi pembuka gerbang ekspor-impor komoditi Jambi, tetapi lebih dari itu, yakni mempercepat lagi laju pertumbuhan ekonomi di daerah ini.

Jambi akan bangun Agro Industrial Park

Bisnis Indonesia JAMBI:

Pemprov Jambi akan membangun kawasan industri khusus pertanian atau Jambi Agro Industrial Park di daerah Muara Sabak, yang bersebe-lahan dengan pelabuhan samudra.

Wakil Gubernur Provinsi Jambi Antony Z. Abidin men- jelaskan saat ini sedang dibuat master plan rencana tersebut yang dibiayai APBD 2007 sebesar Rpl,4 miliar, dan dipastikan tahun ini selesai. "Pem*prov [Jambi] telah menga-lokasikan lahan sekitar 200 hektare di samping pelabuhan samudra," kata dia kepada Bisnis, kemarin.

Jambi Agro Industrial Park akan menjadi kawasan industri khusus pengolahan produk pertanian pertama serta riset yang akan menghasilkan produk dengan kualitas interna sional untuk pasar global.

Beberapa investor nasional maupun luar negeri saat ini sudah mengatakan minatnya untuk bergabung dalam ka*wasan industri tersebut a.l. Jepang , China, Taiwan, Eropa, Singapura dan Malaysia. Khusus Jepang, kata Anthony, Mei tahun ini akan membangun konstruksi awal pabrik biofuel dengan investasi Rp480 miliar.

Agar proyek itu berjalan mulus, pemerintah provinsi akan mempercepat pengerjaan in-frastuktur pendukung, khususnya penyempurnaan pela*buhan samudra. Saat ini pe*labuhan samudra hanya memiliki satu dermaga, dan di-harapkan pada 2009 sudah berdiri lima dermaga, sehing-ga pada tahun itu pelabuhan itu sudah dapat beroperasi secara normal.

Selain itu juga akan disusul pengerjaan jalan antara Muara Sabak dengan kota Jambi dan dengan daerah lainnya dalam provinsi Jambi. Hal ini untuk mendukung kelancaran arus barang maupun arus orang menuju pelabuhan tersebut.

Langkah itu dimulai dengan mempercepat penyelesaian pembangunan jembatan Ba-tang Hari dua yang akan memperpendek jalur Muara Sabak-Kota Jambi sekaligus pelebaran jalan dari Muara Sabak ke Kota Jambi. "Diha-rapkan, waktu tempuh antara Muara Sabak dan Kota Jambi bisa satu jam. Saat ini masih dua jam," kata dia.

Menurut Anthony, rencana pembangunan Jambi Agro Industrial Park sudah dikomunikasikan dengan pemerintah pusat melalui Mendag dan Menperin untuk mendapat dukungan dan fasilitas

Indonesia: Waterford Wedgwood Shifts To Asia To Save Company

2008-12-31 10:12

JAKARTA, INDONESIA: For more than two centuries, Waterford crystal and Wedgwood china have been symbols of Irish and British craftsmanship. Now, their future may lie in Asia.

Drowning in red ink, the storied brands, which merged in 1986, have moved most ceramics production to Indonesia to cut costs and now plan the same fate for crystal manufacturing.

Their headquarters may soon follow.

Short of funds for operations and loan payments, Waterford Wedgwood PLC is in advanced talks to sell a controlling stake to a U.S. private equity fund for roughly 600 million euros ($846 million) in cash and assumed debt, three people briefed on the negotiations told The Associated Press late last week.

The prospective new owners may move the company's management and possibly its headquarters to Indonesia, one of the sources said. They would not identify the fund and spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are confidential.

With a Friday deadline set by creditors, a deal could come as soon as this week, though the Bank of America-led lender group has extended the company's deadline three times previously.

Waterford Wedgwood, which lost 75.8 million euros (about $107.2 million) in the six-month period ending 4 Oct, has struggled for several years like other fine china makers, as formal dining trends continue to give way to more informal habits. But the global financial crisis has pushed it to the brink of bankruptcy. As credit dried up, the company could no longer raise money to cover costs. Its shares have collapsed to one-tenth of a euro cent on the Irish Stock Exchange.

Workers have made Waterford crystal in Ireland and Wedgwood china in England for nearly 250 years. Their crafts have graced the tables of royalty and made innumerable wedding gifts for the better-off in the United States and elsewhere.

But six years of losses has driven Wedgwood to move all major ceramics production from the green hills of Staffordshire county in central England to the industrial outskirts of Jakarta, Indonesia over the past two years.

Only a small number of high-end products _ hand-painted figurines and the iconic blue and white china _ will continue to be made in England. The move to Indonesia, which cost 1,500 jobs in England, follows the opening of a smaller ceramics factory in China in 2004.

On the Waterford side, half of its crystal production was shifted to Eastern Europe last year, cutting 1,400 jobs in Ireland. Now, the company is looking to move all crystal work to Asia, with Indonesia a prime candidate.

"This is part of an expansive search for the best partners to work with in Asia," said James Philip Murtagh, senior vice president of Waterford Ltd.

In the English city of Stoke-on-Trent, where Josiah Wedgwood turned the family business into a global pottery center, the founder's statue still welcomes visitors arriving by train. But the skyline is dominated by dormant bottle-shaped kilns. The canals once used to transport fine china are filled instead with pleasure boaters.

The move to Indonesia all but brings down the curtain on English clay processing in a region nicknamed "The Potteries." At its peak, the industry employed tens of thousands.

The latest layoffs in December included Jeanette Seabridge, 55, who started as a teenager on the production line at Royal Doulton, a subsidiary of Waterford Wedgwood. After decades molding delicate ceramic flowers, she held onto her job longer than most because of traditional skills that took her a year to learn.

"I made 360-400 flowers a day, and at the height of production, there were as many as 80 women working with me," she said. Now heading into early retirement, she has taken a part-time job giving demonstrations at the Gladstone Pottery Museum.

The $50 million move to Indonesia will cut manufacturing costs in half and hopefully enable the business to turn a profit in 2009 or 2010, depending on the depth of the global slowdown, said Tony O'Reilly Jr., whose family is one of two that together own a majority stake in Waterford Wedgwood.

The move became inevitable because of rising energy costs, shrinking sales and the falling U.S. dollar, which ate into profits from the important U.S. market, company executives said.

"We're not leaving Stoke-on-Trent completely, but everyone else has either migrated their product, is sourcing overseas, or sadly has gone out of business," O'Reilly said. In another blow to the town, porcelain maker Royal Worcester & Spode filed for a form of bankruptcy protection in Nov after failing to find buyers for their factories.

After onsite training, Indonesians have taken up positions as managers, designers, technicians and painters at a factory that can produce 10 million pieces a year. It will employ about 1,750 workers by early 2009 as severance packages are settled in England, O'Reilly said.

With an average monthly salary of about 1.8 million rupiah ($150), compared with $1,950 in Britain, their work is vastly cheaper. The reduced costs will enable Waterford Wedgwood to boost spending on marketing and create new products, some with a hint of the Indonesian culture of batik and shadow puppets.

Initial concerns that Indonesian-made china would fall short of Wedgwood's reputation _ some of its tableware sets cost thousands of dollars and become family heirlooms used only on special occasions _ were overcome when products began rolling out of the new plant.

O'Reilly said the Indonesian-made china meets Wedgwood's high standards, which earned it royal status from the queen of England in 1901.

"There is a culture of artisanship," he said on a visit to the Indonesia factory in November. "Our craftspeople here are as good, if not better, than some of those we have in the United Kingdom."

Though the packaging will say "Made in Indonesia," all pieces will still be stamped "Wedgwood. England 1759" _ labeling the company says is permitted under international trade law. (By ANTHONY DEUTSCH and ELLE MOXLEY/ AP)

Elle Moxley reported from Stoke-on-Trent.

-edited-

Rp 51.3t of unspents funds to cushion economic slump


After closing the 2008 account, the government still has in its coffers Rp 51.3 trillion (US$4.6 billion) of unspent funds due in part to higher-than-expected earnings and lower-than-estimated expenditure, the Finance Ministry says.

The unspent funds will be partly used to ease the impact of the global economic downturn, in the form of stimulus for the real sector, and to help plug the 2009 budget deficit currently forecast at Rp 52.73 trillion or 1 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Projects financed by the unspent funds will be carried out this year, including programs for developing communities in rural areas (PNPM) and the operation of the General Election Commission (KPU) which will organize this year's election.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said Wednesday the unspent funds would count as an addition to the stimulus package already included in the state budget for helping industries hit hard by the economic downturn.

The government may disburse Rp 20 trillion of the unspent funds to add to the Rp 12.5 trillion allocated in the state budget for waived income tax, value added tax and import duties, she said.

The unspent funds accounted for 5.2 percent of the 2008 state budget which totaled Rp 985.3 trillion.

In October last year, the government had Rp 120 trillion of idle funds in the central bank.

While state revenue reached Rp 981 trillion, 9.6 percent higher than targeted, state expenditure remained lower than expected at Rp 985.3 trillion, 0.4 percent or Rp 4.2 trillion below expectations.

Local governments and infrastructure projects sponsored by several ministries accounted to the unspent fund due to bureaucracy snags and intention by some officials to profit from the interest proceeds from the fund, which was stored in banks.

Analysts has said a sluggish government spending may slow economic activities, which had been spurred by domestic consumption propelled in part by public fund.

According to the Finance Ministry, Indonesia managed to post a 6.2 percent growth last year, slightly lower than 6.3 percent recorded in the previous year, despite a slowdown in the third and fourth quarters.

The figure was based on the realization of the revised 2008 budget, said Harry Z. Soeratin, the ministry's spokesman.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will announce the official figure in February.

Meanwhile, 2008 inflation is estimated to reach 11.4 percent, higher than 6.5 percent expected in the state budget assumption.

"Inflation was managed at about 11.4 percent by controlling the flow and supply of goods and services, as well as by cutting (subsidized) fuel prices two times in December," Harry said.

The BPS will make an official announcement on December's inflation on Monday.

Meanwhile, the 2008 budget deficit stood at 0.1 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), or Rp 4.2 trillion, far lower than the Rp 94.5 trillion earmarked at the start of the year.

SBY issues decree on maintaining rice self-sufficiency


President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has issued a decree, effective from Jan. 1, 2009, raising the price the government pays to buy rice from local farmers in a bid to ensure national self-sufficiency amid a time of slowing economic activity and a global food crisis.

The presidential decree, issued on Dec. 24, stipulates the government will pay Rp 4,600 per kilogram to buy rice from national farmers, or a 7 percent increase from the current price. The national rice stockpile is controlled by the State Logistics Agency (Bulog).

Meanwhile, the price the government must pay for unhusked paddy (GKGP) increases 9.1 percent to Rp 2,400 per kilogram, and the price of husked paddy (GKG) by 7.2 percent to Rp 3,000 per kilogram.

The government will stabilize domestic rice prices by exporting and importing the grain, thus benefiting farmers and consumers.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, produced 38.6 million metric tons of milled rice in 2008, a 5.5 percent increase from 2007, enabling the country with 230 million people to meet national demand, which was 37 million tons last year.

Bulog's total rice stockpile stood at 1.4 million tons at the end of 2008.

Rice output may jump to 40 million tons this year, which would open the door for the country to export a maximum of 2 million tons, which would be the largest amount in 50 years.

The government plans to maintain national rice self-sufficiency this year by encouraging farmers to use certified paddy seeds and fertilizer, according to deputy to the Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Bayu Krisnamurthi.

Bayu said the government would continue disbursing rice to the poor in 2009.

"We'll provide 15 kilograms of rice over 12 months to 18.5 million poor households," he said.

The presidential decree also encourages investment in rice, but stipulates that owners of rice fields will remain under the supervision of the Investment Coordinating Board.

Bayu said investors should not be allowed to convert existing paddy fields.

Key points in the presidential regulation on rice policy

1. Encourages use of certified top-quality rice seeds and inorganic or organic fertilizers.
2. Guarantees aid for farmers suffering losses during post harvest and controls the reduction of irrigation areas.
3. Facilitates the rehabilitation of land and water catchment areas.
4. New incentives for investment in rice.
5. New price for government to buy rice and paddy.
6. New policies on stockpiling and distributing subsidized rice for the poor, and on the government's control of its rice reserve to stabilize national rice prices, as well as a policy to prepare for emergency situations and disasters.
7. A policy to stabilize the domestic price of rice.
8. New export and import policy designed to protect farmers and buyers.

Pemerintah Siapkan Stimulus Pertumbuhan Rp50 Triliun


JAKARTA--MI: Pemerintah menyiapkan dana stimulus pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk mengatasi dampak krisis keuangan dunia pada 2009 sebesar Rp50 triliun.

Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono pada konferensi pers di sela-sela kunjungan ke Taman Margasatwa Ragunan, Jakarta, Minggu (4/12), mengatakan alokasi dana senilai Rp50 triliun itu berasal dari sisa anggaran pada 2008 senilai Rp38 triliun dan dana yang telah dicadangkan dalam APBN 2009 senilai Rp12 triliun.

"Rp38 triliun ini tentunya sangat berguna ditambah dengan Rp12 triliun yang kita cadangkan, menjadi Rp50 triliun yang akan kita gunakan untuk stimulasi pertumbuhan mengatasi krisis keuangan dunia sekarang ini," jelas Presiden.

Sebagai salah satu kebijakan mengantisipasi dampak krisis keuangan dunia yang diperkirakan memuncak pada 2009, maka pemerintah merumuskan berbagai stimulus ekonomi untuk menjamin gerak sektor riil.

Presiden sebelumnya mengatakan, paket stimulus ekonomi yang dikeluarkan pemerintah akan selalu disesuikan dengan kemampuan anggaran negara sehingga tidak akan menimbulkan beban baru di masa mendatang.

Presiden mengatakan, sisa anggaran Rp38 triliun dari APBN 2008 yang digunakan untuk stimulus pertumbuhan pada 2009 bukan terjadi karena tidak terserapnya anggaran pada 2008.

Sisa dana itu, jelas Presiden, karena penerimaan negara yang meningkat hingga 10% melampaui nilai yang ditargetkan melalui kenaikan setoran pajak. Secara keseluruhan, Presiden menyatakan kepuasannya terhadap kinerja APBN 2008.

APBN 2008 dibelanjakan sebanyak 99,6 persen sehingga terdapat selisih Rp4 triliun dari penerimaan negara Rp981 triliun dan nilai yang dibelanjakan Rp985 triliun. Dengan demikian, defisit anggaran pada 2008 jauh lebih kecil, yaitu 0,1% dari Growth Domestic Product (GDP), dari yang ditargetkan sebesar 2,1% dari GDP.

"Dengan berita baik ini, saya senang penerimaan negara meningkat. Juga penerimaan pajak yang meningkat menunjukan kesadaran bayar pajak yang lebih tinggi dari rakyat," tutur Presiden.

Menurut Presiden, kinerja APBN 2008 yang dilaporkan Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani pada 1 Januari 2009 tersebut akan digunakan sebagai indikator untuk mengukur kesiapan pemerintah menghadapi dampak krisis keuangan global pada 2009. (Ant/OL-01)

Indonesia’s economy grew by 6.2 percent in 2008


The Ministry of Finance announced Saturday that the country’s economy grew by 6.2 percent last year despite enormous pressure from the global liquidity crisis.

A ministry spokesperson, Harry Z. Soeratin, explained that the economic expansion was lower than the 6.4 percent growth that the government had sought. However, he said it was relatively understandable considering last year’s global financial turbulence.

He also said that the price inflation in 2008 was still within desired level. It reached 11.4 percent by the end of the year, he said.

“We have been able to achieve inflation at 11.4 percent thanks to the government's decision to lower subsidized fuel prices and enough food supply throughout the year,” he said

Mixed Investment Appeal For Regional F&D Industry


Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings BMI's unique and proprietary Food & Drink (F&D) Business Environment Ratings assess the investment potential of global food and drink markets, both for local and multinational firms, in comparison to their regional and global peers. Divided into two distinct sub-sectors, Limits of Potential Returns (how great an opportunity does the market's food and drink sector represent?) and Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns (what are the chances of effectively realising this opportunity?), both of which are in turn divided into general market opportunities and risks, and those specific to the food and drink sector, the ratings are a sophisticated tool for examining the overall business environment, and elements within it that may be particularly relevant to individual companies.

Emerging And Emerged Scrap For First One of the most interesting facets of BMI's Business Environment Ratings is the varying reasons for which markets receive their similar scores. Nowhere in the table is this better highlighted than in the top half. Perhaps unsurprisingly, China - a core strategic focus for almost every expansionary multinational F&D company - tops the ratings table. If existing low food and beverage consumption levels and significant income disparities serve to impede F&D spending among certain groups of society, this is more than made up for by the market's vast growth potential, on the back of rapid economic development and middle class emergence, not to mention its enormous population and present levels of immaturity.

However, the market in second place - Japan - could not be more different. The mature Japanese market poses enormous challenges to investors, not least fierce competition and sluggish food consumption growth due to an ageing population and weak consumer confidence. However, what Japan might lack in long-term growth prospects it makes up for in market size; population, GDP per capita and food and beverage consumption rates are all sizeable, while the market offers the sort of economic and political stability that leaves investors confident of realising those returns that are still available.

BMI's third and fourth place, and fifth and sixth place markets further underline this aspect of the ratings. In third place comes one of South East Asia's most exciting investment opportunities, Thailand. Vast agricultural output, relative market immaturity, a healthy economic structure and a strong food consumption growth forecast all make Thailand a favourable investment prospect - the regulatory environment the most notable blot on its copybook. Just below it comes Australia, which again shows vastly different traits to its regional peer. Here market maturity and a relatively low food consumption growth forecast serve as impediments, while high existing food and beverage consumption levels prove the biggest draw. The same contrast applies to fifth place Indonesia and sixth place Taiwan, the former benefiting from a strong food consumption growth forecast and a high score for market entry potential, while the latter benefits from existing high food and beverage spending levels.

All The Same At The Bottom If the top of the ratings is polarised by those with existing high F&D consumption levels and those with immense growth potential, the foot of the table shows far less differentiation. At the bottom of the Asia Pacific table are India, Vietnam, Pakistan and the Philippines. The first two - India and Vietnam - are clearly enormously opportune markets for F&D investors, hence the rate at which multinationals are pursuing investments in both markets and the speed at which local majors are expanding in a bid to protect themselves from competition.

In addition to low existing consumption levels and strong growth potential as a result of market immaturity, both markets are characterised by the involvement of risk in investment and the absence of truly explosive food consumption growth forecasts due to vast income inequalities and the strength and prevalence of traditional food consumption habits. A similar scenario is in evidence in the Philippines and Pakistan, both immature markets which allow for strong growth, albeit far further behind the growth curve than both Vietnam and India, while also carrying far greater risks. We would expect the immense, long-term potential of all four markets to ensure that they steadily climb up BMI's F&D ratings table in time, with the comparatively advanced and dynamic nature of the two higher ranked markets ensuring that their ascend is more rapid.

Mid Table Mix Between seventh and 10th in BMI's Asia Pacific F&D ratings lie four markets which can no longer realistically be considered enormously exciting investment opportunities, but which still have plenty to offer investors, providing their expectations are moderate; one of the main reasons being the relative absence of risk in investment. South Korea - in seventh place in the table - topped BMI's Asia Pacific ratings for some time, the reason being the appeal of its being an emerging market but one which increasingly resembled its developed counterparts in terms of consumption patterns.

The process from emerging to emerged clearly cannot not last forever and consequently South Korea has begun to drift down the ratings table, a below average score for forecast food consumption growth and market entry potential cementing its firm mid-table rating. That said, a stable economy, high existing consumption levels and an advanced F&D supply chain do continue to turn the heads of investors and South Korea remains an enticing prospect provided one does not expect to double category sales or compete for leadership within a developed sector.

Following a similar trend, but further along the scale, are Singapore and Hong Kong, and they fall in ninth and 10th place respectively in our ratings. Both markets offer few opportunities to new investors - they are simply too small and too crowded. However, economic and political stability, minimal restrictions on the entry or activities of F&D investors and high food and drink spending levels mean that both markets will remain on the radar of companies pursuing investment opportunities in the region. Again, sales will not be doubled and market leadership will be near-on impossible to achieve in all but small niche sub-sectors and yet the markets will remain excellent testing grounds for regional product development, particularly in the premium sub-sector.

Slightly different from its mid-table peers is Malaysia, where market maturity is less of a problem, but where food consumption growth forecasts are only moderate and where existing F&D consumption levels are fairly low. Malaysia, arguably more so than any other regional market, highlights the importance of tailored opportunity and risk assessments in determining investment opportunities. A relatively small population restricts spending levels and yet a developed F&D supply chain infrastructure and a relaxed approach to F&D investment make Malaysia a relatively easy market to enter. Its status as a regional halal hub and its vast and diverse agricultural output only serve to underline its potential for investors with specific industry objectives in mind.

Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings


Limits of Potential Returns


Risks to Realisation of Returns

China

Japan

Thailand

Australia

Indonesia

Taiwan

South Korea

Malaysia

Singapore

Hong Kong

India

Vietnam

Pakistan

Philippines

Source: BMI. Scores out of 100, with 100 highest. The Food & Drink BE Rating is the principal rating.

Horee.. saya dulu sempet ikut jadi tim yg ngomporin pemilik perusahaan utk mindahin pabriknya dari inggris ke indonesia.. ternyata ada hasilnya jg belakangan.. baru tau :banana: :cheers2:

Indonesia: Waterford Wedgwood Shifts To Asia To Save Company

2008-12-31 10:12

JAKARTA, INDONESIA: For more than two centuries, Waterford crystal and Wedgwood china have been symbols of Irish and British craftsmanship. Now, their future may lie in Asia.

Drowning in red ink, the storied brands, which merged in 1986, have moved most ceramics production to Indonesia to cut costs and now plan the same fate for crystal manufacturing.

Their headquarters may soon follow.

Short of funds for operations and loan payments, Waterford Wedgwood PLC is in advanced talks to sell a controlling stake to a U.S. private equity fund for roughly 600 million euros ($846 million) in cash and assumed debt, three people briefed on the negotiations told The Associated Press late last week.

The prospective new owners may move the company's management and possibly its headquarters to Indonesia, one of the sources said. They would not identify the fund and spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are confidential.

With a Friday deadline set by creditors, a deal could come as soon as this week, though the Bank of America-led lender group has extended the company's deadline three times previously.

Waterford Wedgwood, which lost 75.8 million euros (about $107.2 million) in the six-month period ending 4 Oct, has struggled for several years like other fine china makers, as formal dining trends continue to give way to more informal habits. But the global financial crisis has pushed it to the brink of bankruptcy. As credit dried up, the company could no longer raise money to cover costs. Its shares have collapsed to one-tenth of a euro cent on the Irish Stock Exchange.

Workers have made Waterford crystal in Ireland and Wedgwood china in England for nearly 250 years. Their crafts have graced the tables of royalty and made innumerable wedding gifts for the better-off in the United States and elsewhere.

But six years of losses has driven Wedgwood to move all major ceramics production from the green hills of Staffordshire county in central England to the industrial outskirts of Jakarta, Indonesia over the past two years.

Only a small number of high-end products _ hand-painted figurines and the iconic blue and white china _ will continue to be made in England. The move to Indonesia, which cost 1,500 jobs in England, follows the opening of a smaller ceramics factory in China in 2004.

On the Waterford side, half of its crystal production was shifted to Eastern Europe last year, cutting 1,400 jobs in Ireland. Now, the company is looking to move all crystal work to Asia, with Indonesia a prime candidate.

"This is part of an expansive search for the best partners to work with in Asia," said James Philip Murtagh, senior vice president of Waterford Ltd.

In the English city of Stoke-on-Trent, where Josiah Wedgwood turned the family business into a global pottery center, the founder's statue still welcomes visitors arriving by train. But the skyline is dominated by dormant bottle-shaped kilns. The canals once used to transport fine china are filled instead with pleasure boaters.

The move to Indonesia all but brings down the curtain on English clay processing in a region nicknamed "The Potteries." At its peak, the industry employed tens of thousands.

The latest layoffs in December included Jeanette Seabridge, 55, who started as a teenager on the production line at Royal Doulton, a subsidiary of Waterford Wedgwood. After decades molding delicate ceramic flowers, she held onto her job longer than most because of traditional skills that took her a year to learn.

"I made 360-400 flowers a day, and at the height of production, there were as many as 80 women working with me," she said. Now heading into early retirement, she has taken a part-time job giving demonstrations at the Gladstone Pottery Museum.

The $50 million move to Indonesia will cut manufacturing costs in half and hopefully enable the business to turn a profit in 2009 or 2010, depending on the depth of the global slowdown, said Tony O'Reilly Jr., whose family is one of two that together own a majority stake in Waterford Wedgwood.

The move became inevitable because of rising energy costs, shrinking sales and the falling U.S. dollar, which ate into profits from the important U.S. market, company executives said.

"We're not leaving Stoke-on-Trent completely, but everyone else has either migrated their product, is sourcing overseas, or sadly has gone out of business," O'Reilly said. In another blow to the town, porcelain maker Royal Worcester & Spode filed for a form of bankruptcy protection in Nov after failing to find buyers for their factories.

After onsite training, Indonesians have taken up positions as managers, designers, technicians and painters at a factory that can produce 10 million pieces a year. It will employ about 1,750 workers by early 2009 as severance packages are settled in England, O'Reilly said.

With an average monthly salary of about 1.8 million rupiah ($150), compared with $1,950 in Britain, their work is vastly cheaper. The reduced costs will enable Waterford Wedgwood to boost spending on marketing and create new products, some with a hint of the Indonesian culture of batik and shadow puppets.

Initial concerns that Indonesian-made china would fall short of Wedgwood's reputation _ some of its tableware sets cost thousands of dollars and become family heirlooms used only on special occasions _ were overcome when products began rolling out of the new plant.

O'Reilly said the Indonesian-made china meets Wedgwood's high standards, which earned it royal status from the queen of England in 1901.

"There is a culture of artisanship," he said on a visit to the Indonesia factory in November. "Our craftspeople here are as good, if not better, than some of those we have in the United Kingdom."

Though the packaging will say "Made in Indonesia," all pieces will still be stamped "Wedgwood. England 1759" _ labeling the company says is permitted under international trade law. (By ANTHONY DEUTSCH and ELLE MOXLEY/ AP)

Elle Moxley reported from Stoke-on-Trent.

SBY: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi RI Termasuk yang Tertinggi di Dunia


Jakarta - Krisis yang merebak sejak 4 bulan terakhir di 2008 ternyata tidak terlalu berpengaruh pada pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Menurut Presiden SBY, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia bahkan termasuk yang tertinggi di dunia.

"Kita sudah melakukan antisipasi krisis dari sejak 4 bulan terakhir di tahun 2008. Hasil antisipasi tersebut, growth kita tidak drop," jelas Presiden SBY dalam pidatonya saat membuka perdagangan saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia di Gedung BEI, Jakarta, Senin (5/1/2009)..

"Memang target semula 6 koma sekian persen, tahun lalu (2007) 6,3%, Insya Allah pertumbuhan ekonomi kita hingga akhir 2008 berkisar 6-6,1%. Jadi hanya turun 0,2% dari tahun 2007. Ini termasuk yang tertinggi di dunia," imbuh SBY dengan bangga.

Presiden pun menyampaikan beberapa perbandingan pertumbuhan ekonomi diberbagai negara yakni:

* Amerika Serikat, dari 2% diperkirakan turun menjadi 1,2%.
* Inggris dari 3% menjadi 0,8%.
* Jepang dari 2,4% diperkirakan menjadi 0,1%.
* Australia dari 4,1% menjadi 2,4%,
* Malaysia dari 6,3% menjadi 5,5%.
* Singapura dari 7,7% menjadi 2,1%,
* China yang pertumbuhan ekonomiinya paling cepat turun dari 12% menjadi 10%.


"Dan Indonesia sendiri dari 6,3% menjadi 6,1%. Ini karena kerja keras antisipasi kita. Jadi pertumbuhan ekonomi kita tidak seburuk dari yang diprediksi berbagai kalangan," ujarnya.

Selain mampu mengatasi krisis, Presiden pun mengungkapkan kegembiraannya atas tercapainya ketersediaan bahan pangan.

"Memang 2008 terjadi kenaikan harga, bahan pokok tapi dibanding negara lain masih banyak negara-negara selain kita yang inflasinya lebih tinggi. Padi dan beras yang menjadi tumpuan kehidupan kita dengan kerja keras produksi bisa tumbuh 6%. Dan kita sudah mengalami swasembada beras dengan produksi 6 juta ton gabah kering giling. Ini memperlihatkan keberhasilan pertanian kita," urainya.

Infrastructure projects key to safeguarding economy


The government and businesses seem to have agreed on one solution that could mitigate the impact of the global slowdown while also creating millions of new jobs -- to accelerate government-led infrastructure projects.

Up to Rp 100 trillion (about US$$9.95 billion) of funds have been set aside to finance projects developing ports, turnpikes, railways, bridges, water irrigation systems and others, with the government already putting out the tenders for some of these projects.

Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Finance Minister who is also acting Coordinating Minister for Economy, said recently that these ongoing tenders were mostly managed by the Public Works Ministry.

"I'm asking other government and regional administrative units to follow suit so that infrastructure projects can start no later than Jan. 5," Mulyani said.

Bambang Susantono, a deputy to the coordinating minister for the economy, in charge of infrastructure, recently said that: "We have begun to tender projects to speed up infrastructure development in 2009. Infrastructure determines (our) competitiveness (with other countries)."

Funding for infrastructure projects comes from long-term investment, which may be difficult to obtain during an economic downturn as may investors prefer quick-yielding investments. Therefore it rests on the shoulders of government to push these projects, Bambang said.

Indonesia's economy may grow by as little as 4.5 percent in 2009 due to the global economic downturn, which will hit exports and investment, a drop from the expected 6.1 percent economic growth this year.

The government has said it will speed up government spending as early as January to boost the economy. In the first three quarters of 2008, the economy grew by 6.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).

Mulyani said that Rp 24 trillion would be channeled to local administrations to strengthen their capacity to implement key infrastructure projects in the regions.

"We will continue transferring infrastructure funds to regional administrations, and they should increase the share of their budgets on activities that create more jobs," she said.

In addition to the Rp 24 trillion, the government also plans to spend Rp 72 trillion on numerous infrastructure-related projects conducted by central government units in early 2009.

Of the total, Rp 25.8 trillion will be spent by the Public Works Ministry, Rp 12.6 trillion by the Transportation Ministry, Rp 4.5 trillion by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, Rp 3.5 trillion by the Trade Ministry, Rp 2.8 trillion by the Finance Ministry, Rp 2.2 trillion by the Religion Affairs Ministry, Rp 1.1 trillion by the Fishery and Maritime Ministry and Rp 1 trillion by the Education Ministry.

M.S. Hidayat, chairman of Indonesia's Commerce and Industry Chambers (Kadin), said that infrastructure projects were one way to help compensate for possible massive layoffs in 2009 as industries cut production capacity because of weakening demand.

"The Rp 100 trillion of infrastructure projects would be one way to safeguard the economy from the impact of the global crisis. Kadin welcomes this initiative and will cooperate to help make this program a success," Hidayat said.

The government has estimated that about $65 billion will be needed in new infrastructure investment in the next three years. It estimates that next year's infrastructure projects would be able to absorb up to 1.1 million new workers.

Superblok pun tidak kuasa membendung krisis

oleh : A. Dadan Muhanda



Dua tahun terakhir merupakan masa puncak industri properti di Tanah Air. Pada masa emas itu, pengembang kelas kakap ramai-ramai mengembangkan konsep superblok. Fenomena properti ini semakin menjadi-jadi mulai awal 2008. Namun, gema superblok itu n meredup seiring dengan krisis ekonomi global. Akankah superblok masih menjadi primadona di tengah resesi ekonomi global?

Pengujung tahun, biasanya menjadi tambang emas yang menggiurkan bagi para pengembang dan broker properti. Betapa tidak, aktivitas penjualan biasanya meningkat dan mencapai puncaknya pada dua bulan terakhir menjelang tutup tahun dalam siklus satu tahunan.

Namun, siklus itu tidak berjalan normal pada tahun lalu. Penjualan apartemen dan perkantoran justru mencapai antiklimaks. Grafik penjualan menukik pada pengujung akhir tahun lalu.

Survei PT Cushman & Wakefield Indonesia, perusahaan konsultan dan riset properti, menyebutkan penjualan apartemen turun 50% pada kuartal IV 2008 dibandingkan dengan kuartal sebelumnya, sedangkan penjualan tahunan turun 35% menjadi 9.291 unit dari 14.388 unit pada 2007.

Sejak tiga bulan lalu, penjualan properti sudah mulai menunjukkan tanda-tanda penurunan. Tren itu semakin menguat ketika pasar modal di lantai Bursa Efek Indonesia mulai terguncang diiringi kenaikan suku bunga acuan atau BI Rate.

Sejumlah perusahaan analis dan riset properti lantas memprediksi pasar apartemen, perkantoran, dan pasar ritel akan melambat hingga tahun ini. Perkantoran dan properti ritel akan mengalami guncangan paling hebat dibandingkan dengan properti residensial.

Properti kelas atas dan premium yang biasanya tahan terhadap tekanan kenaikan suku bunga, kali ini mulai merasakan dampaknya.

Presdir PT Bakrieland Development Tbk Hiramsyah S. Thaib mengakui ada penurunan penjualan apartemen sekitar 10%, sedangkan Direktur PT Ciputra Property Tbk Artadinata Djangkar mengakui penurunan penjualan dalam beberapa bulan terakhir sekitar 20%.

Padahal, di Jakarta sedikitnya ada 10 proyek superblok dengan nilai kapitalisasi Rp95 triliun yang sedang dibangun dan tengah aktif dipasarkan. Risiko dan beban biaya megaproyek superblok ini sangat tinggi, karena beragam produk properti dibangun dalam satu kawasan atau di blok yang sama.

Dalam satu superblok hampir separuh lahannya dibangun untuk apartemen atau residensial, sisanya berupa pusat perbelanjaan dan hiburan, perkantoran dan fasilitas penunjang lain seperti sekolah dan rumah sakit.

Sarat masalah

Handa Sulaiman, Direktur Eksekutif Investasi PT Cushman & Wakefield Indonesia, perusahaan konsultan properti, menyebutkan masalah yang dihadapi pengembang superblok akan sangat kompleks dalam keadaan krisis dan penurunan penjualan. Pengembang dituntut untuk menyelesaikan semua tahapan pekerjaan meskipun prapenjualan dan prakomitmen dari calon konsumen sedang lesu.

Jika dari satu menara apartemen sebagian besar sudah laris terjual, pengembang dipastikan akan berusaha menyelesaikan proyeknya. Langkah ini sudah biasa dilakukan oleh pengembang yang membangun apartemen biasa.

Namun, tuntutannya berbeda pada pengembang superblok. Pengembang dituntut juga untuk membereskan fasilitas di sekitarnya meskipun penjualannya sedang sepi.

"Pengembang tetap harus membereskan infrastruktur dan proyek di sekitarnya. Jika tidak kenyamanan penghuni akan terganggu," katanya.

Menurut Handa, sebelum telanjur dilanjutkan, developer sebenarnya bisa mereposisi atau meninjau ulang proyek yang berpotensi menyedot dana besar, karena pembelinya lesu. Produk properti yang bisa dirancang ulang tanpa harus mengubah desain dan menunda proyek adalah properti ritel berupa pusat perbelanjaan atau mal.

Berdasarkan riset sejumlah analisis, properti ritel ini memang mempunyai potensi paling tinggi terkena krisis cukup lama dibandingkan dengan residensial dan perkantoran. Selain residensial, sejumlah pengembang menyisihkan sebagian besar lahannya untuk propeti ritel, berupa pusat belanja.

"Pengembang harus mengubah konsep pusat perbelanjaan sementara. Tenant [penyewa] jangan mengandalkan dari luar negeri yang mempunyai citra tinggi, tetapi dipilih dari lokal yang berpotensi mendatangkan pembeli."

Menurut dia, penyewa yang adalah peritel yang masih mampu mendongkrak makanan dan minuman dari para pengusaha lokal. Pengembang tidak usah khawatir dengan menurunkan kelas penyewa itu akan mengurangi citra.

Menurut Handa, penyewa kelas premium selain akan menunda ekspansinya juga pengunjung dan pembelinya akan turun selama krisis masih berlangsung. "Secara bertahap, jika nanti kondisi sudah pulih, sebagian tenant kelas atas dan premium bisa didatangkan."

Jaga komitmen

Pengembang yang sudah berpengalaman seperti Agung Podomoro Group tetap akan mempertahankan konsep dan komitmen. Handaka Santosa, eksekutif Agung Podomoro Group (APG) yang menangani Senayan City dan superblok Podomoro City, mengatakan pihaknya sudah mempunyai berbagai strategi untuk mengembangkan properti ritel.

"Dalam mengembangkan pusat belanja harus punya ciri khas sehingga pembeli akan ketagihan datang lagi. Lihat Senayan City, pengunjungnya tetap tinggi, karena ada sesuatu yang tidak diperoleh di tempat lain."

Handaka mengklaim APG akan menyelesaikan semua proyek superbloknya, karena pada saat krisis seperti ini persaingan justru sedang menurun. Dia yakin jika setelah krisis, pada saat sektor properti kembali tumbuh, pengembang yang berkorban lebih banyak pasti akan meraup untung terlebih dulu.

"Ada peluang pada saat krisis. Kami tetap berkomitmen tinggi untuk menyelesaikan proyek superblok yang digarap Grup Agung Podomoro, sehingga nanti bisa curi start pada saat kondisi pulih," ujarnya kepada Bisnis.

Bakrieland juga mengaku krisis tidak akan mengubah jadwal proyek superblok Rasuna Epicentrum. Hiramsyah mengatakan sudah memperoleh suntikan modal dari investor Timur Tengah yaitu Dubai World, sehingga pendanaan proyek Rasuna Epicentrum lebih terjamin.

"Kalau ada penurunan penjualan itu masih wajar, hanya bersifat temporer. Ini kan proyek jangka panjang."

Bakrieland tidak terlalu khawatir lesunya penjualan akibat krisis ini. Selain tidak menonjolkan properti ritel, proyek perkantoran Bakrie Tower akan diisi oleh seluruh perusahaan kelompok usaha Bakrie.

Sejauh mana dan sedalam apa krisis global akan berdampak, memang belum ada yang bisa memastikan. Semuanya masih meraba-raba. Tetapi komitmen pengembang itu patut kita tunggu. Reputasi pengembang tidak hanya terlihat saat menancapkan tiang pertama sebuah proyek. Melainkan bagaimana menyelesaikan proyek itu tepat waktu dan bekualitas tinggi, apalagi dalam kondisi krisis. (redaksi@bisnis.co.id)

SBY: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi RI Termasuk yang Tertinggi di Dunia


Jakarta - Krisis yang merebak sejak 4 bulan terakhir di 2008 ternyata tidak terlalu berpengaruh pada pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Menurut Presiden SBY, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia bahkan termasuk yang tertinggi di dunia.

"Kita sudah melakukan antisipasi krisis dari sejak 4 bulan terakhir di tahun 2008. Hasil antisipasi tersebut, growth kita tidak drop," jelas Presiden SBY dalam pidatonya saat membuka perdagangan saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia di Gedung BEI, Jakarta, Senin (5/1/2009)..

"Memang target semula 6 koma sekian persen, tahun lalu (2007) 6,3%, Insya Allah pertumbuhan ekonomi kita hingga akhir 2008 berkisar 6-6,1%. Jadi hanya turun 0,2% dari tahun 2007. Ini termasuk yang tertinggi di dunia," imbuh SBY dengan bangga.

Presiden pun menyampaikan beberapa perbandingan pertumbuhan ekonomi diberbagai negara yakni:

* Amerika Serikat, dari 2% diperkirakan turun menjadi 1,2%.
* Inggris dari 3% menjadi 0,8%.
* Jepang dari 2,4% diperkirakan menjadi 0,1%.
* Australia dari 4,1% menjadi 2,4%,
* Malaysia dari 6,3% menjadi 5,5%.
* Singapura dari 7,7% menjadi 2,1%,
* China yang pertumbuhan ekonomiinya paling cepat turun dari 12% menjadi 10%.


"Dan Indonesia sendiri dari 6,3% menjadi 6,1%. Ini karena kerja keras antisipasi kita. Jadi pertumbuhan ekonomi kita tidak seburuk dari yang diprediksi berbagai kalangan," ujarnya.

Selain mampu mengatasi krisis, Presiden pun mengungkapkan kegembiraannya atas tercapainya ketersediaan bahan pangan.

"Memang 2008 terjadi kenaikan harga, bahan pokok tapi dibanding negara lain masih banyak negara-negara selain kita yang inflasinya lebih tinggi. Padi dan beras yang menjadi tumpuan kehidupan kita dengan kerja keras produksi bisa tumbuh 6%. Dan kita sudah mengalami swasembada beras dengan produksi 6 juta ton gabah kering giling. Ini memperlihatkan keberhasilan pertanian kita," urainya.

yg paling merasakan dampak krisis global ini adalah singapore.. :gaah:

padahal, salah satu negara yg paling stabil bahkan berkembang terus d Asia. tapi ternyata economics growth ny merosot paling tajam.

tapi, memang diakui.. kalau devisa terbesar singapore berasal dari service dan tax.

dan mereka telah membuktikan bahwa mereka mampu memberikan service berstandar dunia (world class standard) dan para turis yg berkunjung maupun ber-domisil d sana rela membayar tax yg dianggap lumyan mahal.. (GST tax dan service tax, masing2 7% dan 10%)

tidak aneh semenjak krisis global ekonomi bbrpa bulan lalu, sumber utama devisa baik itu dari kunjungan wisman maupun aktivitas ekspor-impor menurun drastis, imbas ny pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan sendirinya merosot jauh juga..

(intinya, jika permintaan menurun otomatis penawaran pun menurun)

karena sebagian besar devisa negara berasal dari service and tax, dan itu pula yg merosot jauh, maka tidak aneh kalo economic growth ny juga merosot (7.7% - 2.1%)

bahkan, penutupan tahun 2008 maren, salah satu pesan PM Lee yaitu 2 kuarter pertama (januari - juni 2009), ekonomi negara itu akan menurun lagi.
diperkirakan tahun 2010 baru akan berangsur2 membaik..

selain itu, estimasi pemerintah thdp pertumbuhan ekonomi juga tidak akan jauh2 dari sekitaran 1%-2%..

perna gw baca juga, ditulis d koran (terjemahan) "pertumbuhan ekonomi singapore sekitar 1.5%, untung ny belom menyentuh angka minus.."

:ohno:

I hope for the best for Singapore! ;)

btw, DJ_Archuleta masi duduk d bangku sekolah ato udah kerja?

kayanya memiliki interest yg gede jg thdap dunia ekonomi. ;)

^^ Singapore itu Export to GDP Ratio nya udah lebih dari 100%. Begitu lawan export / negara tujuan nya kolaps, ya export ikut kolaps & juga economic growth nya. Indonesia masih lebih beruntung karena export to GDP ratio nya kecil, dan masih ditunjang dengan strong demand dari 220 juta rakyat Indonesia. Lain dengan Singapore yang tidak punya strong demand yang kuat.

O ya, Singapore itu 2008 pertumbuhannya 1,5%, bukan 2,1 %.. dan Q4 Singapore udah kontraksi alias minus, target taun depan pun dikoreksi jadi -2% - +1%.

Pesan moral :

Jangan selalu berpikiran inferior thdp bangsa sendiri & terlalu menganggap negara lain diatas segala-gala nya. Waktu dulu, Singapore dielu-elukan..knapa kita ga bisa sperti singapore, pertumbuhannya tinggi bla bla bla...sekarang orang yang bilang itu, mungkin cuma bisa diem ;)

^^ sama sekali tidak berpikiran inferior thdap negara sendiri, malah senang kalo indonesia mampu bertahan dengan pertumbuhan ekonominya..

hanya ingin share aja kenapa economic growth singapore bisa anjlok.

cuma itu, tidak lebih, tidak kurang dan tidak ada maksd apapun. ;)



gw baca beritanya, kalo Q4 belom minus, tapi hanya skitaran 1%. ;)

anyway.. kalo bole tau, "yg mengelu2kan singapore, pertumbuhannya tinggi bla bla bla.. dan orang yg bilang itu, mgkin cuma bisa diem.." sapa itu? :)

SBY: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi RI Termasuk yang Tertinggi di Dunia


Jakarta - Krisis yang merebak sejak 4 bulan terakhir di 2008 ternyata tidak terlalu berpengaruh pada pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Menurut Presiden SBY, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia bahkan termasuk yang tertinggi di dunia.

"Kita sudah melakukan antisipasi krisis dari sejak 4 bulan terakhir di tahun 2008. Hasil antisipasi tersebut, growth kita tidak drop," jelas Presiden SBY dalam pidatonya saat membuka perdagangan saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia di Gedung BEI, Jakarta, Senin (5/1/2009)..

"Memang target semula 6 koma sekian persen, tahun lalu (2007) 6,3%, Insya Allah pertumbuhan ekonomi kita hingga akhir 2008 berkisar 6-6,1%. Jadi hanya turun 0,2% dari tahun 2007. Ini termasuk yang tertinggi di dunia," imbuh SBY dengan bangga.

Presiden pun menyampaikan beberapa perbandingan pertumbuhan ekonomi diberbagai negara yakni:

* Amerika Serikat, dari 2% diperkirakan turun menjadi 1,2%.
* Inggris dari 3% menjadi 0,8%.
* Jepang dari 2,4% diperkirakan menjadi 0,1%.
* Australia dari 4,1% menjadi 2,4%,
* Malaysia dari 6,3% menjadi 5,5%.
* Singapura dari 7,7% menjadi 2,1%,
* China yang pertumbuhan ekonomiinya paling cepat turun dari 12% menjadi 10%.


"Dan Indonesia sendiri dari 6,3% menjadi 6,1%. Ini karena kerja keras antisipasi kita. Jadi pertumbuhan ekonomi kita tidak seburuk dari yang diprediksi berbagai kalangan," ujarnya.

Selain mampu mengatasi krisis, Presiden pun mengungkapkan kegembiraannya atas tercapainya ketersediaan bahan pangan.

"Memang 2008 terjadi kenaikan harga, bahan pokok tapi dibanding negara lain masih banyak negara-negara selain kita yang inflasinya lebih tinggi. Padi dan beras yang menjadi tumpuan kehidupan kita dengan kerja keras produksi bisa tumbuh 6%. Dan kita sudah mengalami swasembada beras dengan produksi 6 juta ton gabah kering giling. Ini memperlihatkan keberhasilan pertanian kita," urainya.

SIngapura gak heran tuh jatuh banget .. negara itu kan negara pelabuhan bongkar muat. Terminal kargo nya sangat bergantung dengan perdagangan dunia. Jadi kalau volume ekspor-impor di negara2 tetangganya anjlok. SIngapura bakal kena yang paling parah, karena mereka dalam posisi bongkar-muat.

Ditambah, SIngapura kan negara yang sangat menggantungkan ekonomi dari Pasar Saham. Ya wajar aja tuh anjlok banget.

Tapi at least belum minus... Walaupun aku kira Singapura udah masuk ke level pertumbuhan minus, soalnya tahun kemaren kan mereka euforia boomingnya harga saham. Kalau keadaan hari ini terus berlanjut, kemungkinan besar tahun depan mereka Minus ;) ...

^^

Jangan selalu berpikiran inferior thdp bangsa sendiri & terlalu menganggap negara lain diatas segala-gala nya. Waktu dulu, Singapore dielu-elukan..knapa kita ga bisa sperti singapore, pertumbuhannya tinggi bla bla bla...sekarang orang yang bilang itu, mungkin cuma bisa diem ;)

Singapore punya ketergantungan kuat di pasar saham. Semua orang juga tahu kalau tahun 2007, jangankan di Singapore ... Saham di jakarta juga booming, kok :D .. hehehehe

Gak nyangka aja, kalau ketergantungan itu benar-benar-benar kuat.Ehh, gak tahunya Pelabuhan transito kebanggaan mereka juga kena getahnya ...

^^ dari luar tampakny pertumbuhan ekonomi emng uda minus, soalnya imbasny kelietan banget..

dan yg sebnarnya belom minus, hanya mendekati.

pemerintah sana juga tidak tinggal diam, mereka lagi merevisi APBN yg akan dialokasi kan buat men-stimulasi pertumbuhan ekonomi (jadi tidak akan jatuh lebih dalam)

(d singapore, APBN dikenal sbg Budget)

mereka merevisi APBN biasa ny dari januari dan baru d-apply pada bulan akhir april, jadi mereka mempunyai kira2 2 ampe 3 bulan buat menyiapkannya..

tapi karena krisis ini, maka government mempercepat implementasi Budget ny menjadi akhir bulan Januari.

sekali lagi, hanya buat sharing semata2. ;)

Indonesia masih aman ya? :D amien... :angel:

Indonesia masih aman ya? :D amien... :angel:

Yang (akan) terganggu di Indonesia itu :
1. Pasar Saham
2. Sektor SDA yang fokus ke ekspor
3. Tekstil dan manufaktur yang fokus ke ekspor
4. Yang mengandalkan pariwisata dari dunia internasional (Bali mesti ambil ancang-ancang dan siap-siap)

Yang tidak akan terganggu:
Lagi-lagi dan lagi-lagi SEKTOR KONSUMSI sebagai penyeimbang ekonomi negara:
1. Telekomunikasi
2. Makanan dan Minuman
3. (kemungkinan besar) Industri hiburan , musik, entertainment, konser2 bakal tetap megah (malah makin megah :D) ...

Di JB sekarang sepi banget loh orang SIngapura belanja .... Gawat banget ...... Ketahuan banget bedanya berbanding 1-2 tahun yang lalu ... GIla, tadi aku ke Mal di JB yang jadi favorit orang SG buat belanja... Guess what happened, mal itu sepiii - sepiiii banget .. Jam 9 dah pada tutup :bash:

btw, DJ_Archuleta masi duduk d bangku sekolah ato udah kerja?

kayanya memiliki interest yg gede jg thdap dunia ekonomi. ;)

Masih di bangku sekolah...... tapi 7 thn yg lalu... hehe

skrg udah kerja kog.. wlopun baru masuk dunia kerja tp minat gw trhadap
ekonomi bisa dibilang cukup tinggi :)

^^ no wonder. :lol:

kirain masi duduk d bangku sekolah..

^^ sama sekali tidak berpikiran inferior thdap negara sendiri, malah senang kalo indonesia mampu bertahan dengan pertumbuhan ekonominya..

gw baca beritanya, kalo Q4 belom minus, tapi hanya skitaran 1%. ;)

anyway.. kalo bole tau, "yg mengelu2kan singapore, pertumbuhannya tinggi bla bla bla.. dan orang yg bilang itu, mgkin cuma bisa diem.." sapa itu? :)

No no, i'm not talking about you :) g perhatiin rata2 forumer disini ga ada yang inferior thdp Indo. Justru karena mereka bangga, mereka mau share2 pengetahuan & ilmu disini. Kalo yang inferior2 itu di forum sebelah :D

maksud g banyak kan orang2 di luar sana yang selalu mengelu-elukan Singapore.


Tapi at least belum minus... Walaupun aku kira Singapura udah masuk ke level pertumbuhan minus, soalnya tahun kemaren kan mereka euforia boomingnya harga saham. Kalau keadaan hari ini terus berlanjut, kemungkinan besar tahun depan mereka Minus ;) ...

^^ dari luar tampakny pertumbuhan ekonomi emng uda minus, soalnya imbasny kelietan banget..

dan yg sebnarnya belom minus, hanya mendekati.

pemerintah sana juga tidak tinggal diam, mereka lagi merevisi APBN yg akan dialokasi kan buat men-stimulasi pertumbuhan ekonomi (jadi tidak akan jatuh lebih dalam)

(d singapore, APBN dikenal sbg Budget)

mereka merevisi APBN biasa ny dari januari dan baru d-apply pada bulan akhir april, jadi mereka mempunyai kira2 2 ampe 3 bulan buat menyiapkannya..

tapi karena krisis ini, maka government mempercepat implementasi Budget ny menjadi akhir bulan Januari.

sekali lagi, hanya buat sharing semata2. ;)

November kmaren, g liat di CNN-CNAI-BBC-Bloomberg, govt SG udah menyatakan kalo SG udah masuk resesi & mengalami kontraksi di Q4 2008.

Tapi data realnya g blom tau, ntar tak cari2 dulu deh data nya :D


Di JB sekarang sepi banget loh orang SIngapura belanja .... Gawat banget ...... Ketahuan banget bedanya berbanding 1-2 tahun yang lalu ... GIla, tadi aku ke Mal di JB yang jadi favorit orang SG buat belanja... Guess what happened, mal itu sepiii - sepiiii banget .. Jam 9 dah pada tutup :bash:

Wah, kmarin di Bandung, hari minggu di Jl. Riau isinya manusia smua. Mo parkir ampe sulit..orang2 pada ngeborong baju di butik & F.O...berasa ga lagi krisis.. :tongue2:

The Associated Press , Vienna | Mon, 01/05/2009 7:10 PM | Business

Oil prices rose above $47 a barrel Monday on evidence that OPEC production cutbacks were taking hold and news of more unrest in oil-rich Nigeria.

A dispute between Ukraine and Russia over gas imports and Israel's ground offensive in Gaza also kept tensions high, although analysts were split over how much the conflict in the Middle East is affecting markets.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose $1.15 to $47.49 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. The contract rose Friday $1.74 to settle at $46.34.

Analysts at JBC Energy said in a research note that prices were supported by "increasing evidence that OPEC is adhering to its agreed production cuts and the announcement of the US government to add more oil into its strategic reserves."

Prices were also buoyed by the "latest news from Nigeria that saboteurs had attacked and partly destroyed part of a pipeline," the analysts said.

Nigerian regional army chief Brig. Gen. Wuyep Rimtip said Saturday he did not know how severely the pipeline was damaged and suspected local youths rather than militants were responsible for the attack.

Nigeria's major ilitant group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, declared a cease-fire in September, but has warned that attacks could resume if it is provoked.

In the oil-rich Middle East, tensions were high as thousands of Israeli troops backed by tanks and helicopter gunships surrounded Gaza's larget city and fought Hamas militants at close range Sunday, as the offensive moved from airstrikes to artillery shelling and ground fighting in a bid to stop rocket fire on southern Israel.

An Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander on Monday urged Islamic nations to use crude as a weapon to exert pressure on Western backers of Israel.

Still, even Iran - among the more radical OPEC members - was unlikely to jeopardize its precious oil income, and with no oil producing nation directly involved, analysts were split over the maket impact of the Gaza unrest.

"With Israeli troops going into Gaza, that just heightens fears of the possibility of a wider Middle East conflict," said Ken Hasegawa, an energy analyst with broker Newedge in Tokyo. "Prices will likely continue to rise in the short term."

In Vienna, however, JBC Energy said that to all appearances the conflict "has not had much of an impact so far."

Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore, said prices "will depend on OPEC's compliance with their output cuts and the health of the global economy." Shum said he expects prices to average in the low $50s this year.

Iran's state television said OPEC countries have decided to hold an extraordinary meeting on falling oil prices in Kuwait in February. The report on Monday quoted Iran's OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi as saying the organization planned to bring forward the regular meeting in March because the "trend of oil prices" calls for holding a meeting a month earlier.

A dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas payments also concerned traders Monday. Russian gas monopoly Gazprom has cut off gas shipments to Ukraine since Thursday, and Ukraine has warned that European customers could see serious natural gas disruptions in about two weeks.

Gazprom has continued to send gas to Europe, which relies on it for a quarter of its gas. But 80 percent of the gas Gazprom sends west passes through the same pipelines that supply Ukraine, and over the past four days the pressure in the pipelines has dropped. Some European countries - including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania - have reported a decline in supplies.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose nearly 4 cents to $1.15 a gallon. Heating oil gained close to 3 pennies to $1.48 a gallon while natural gas for February delivery was flat at $5.97 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, February Brent crude rose $1.01 to $47.92 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange

No no, i'm not talking about you :) g perhatiin rata2 forumer disini ga ada yang inferior thdp Indo. Justru karena mereka bangga, mereka mau share2 pengetahuan & ilmu disini. Kalo yang inferior2 itu di forum sebelah :D

Wah, kmarin di Bandung, hari minggu di Jl. Riau isinya manusia smua. Mo parkir ampe sulit..orang2 pada ngeborong baju di butik & F.O...berasa ga lagi krisis.. :tongue2:

Paragraf pertama, inferior mah nggak lah, bagaimanapun ini negara kita. Cuma kalau gw sih prefer stay realistic aja kali ya, ga pesimis en selalu ngejelek2in, tp juga ga suka terlalu membangga2kan Indo. Biar bagaimanapun negara ini masih belum sempurna dan masih harus terus dibenahi. Kalau tiap hari dijejelin berita positif trus juga ntar kaget en kecewa loh kalau kenyataannya beda...

Untuk yg kedua, suasana belanja di Indo kyknya memang ga terlalu efek ya, ga keliatan lg krisis. Liat aja klo ada event midnite shopping, wuihh semua bawa tas belanjaan. Jakarta, Bandung, Jogja, Bali, seenggaknya di kota2 itu gw ga liat orang ngerem belanja krn krisis, tetep semangat berburu barang, hahahaha.....

^^ paragraf pertama, yup just be realistic dan tidak selalu menganggap rumput tetangga slalu lebih hijau :D

paragraf kedua, yeahh....rasanya malah mereka pada shopping biar ga pusing mikirin krisis..hahaha..

Yang (akan) terganggu di Indonesia itu :
1. Pasar Saham
2. Sektor SDA yang fokus ke ekspor
3. Tekstil dan manufaktur yang fokus ke ekspor
4. Yang mengandalkan pariwisata dari dunia internasional (Bali mesti ambil ancang-ancang dan siap-siap)

Yang tidak akan terganggu:
Lagi-lagi dan lagi-lagi SEKTOR KONSUMSI sebagai penyeimbang ekonomi negara:
1. Telekomunikasi
2. Makanan dan Minuman
3. (kemungkinan besar) Industri hiburan , musik, entertainment, konser2 bakal tetap megah (malah makin megah :D) ...

Di JB sekarang sepi banget loh orang SIngapura belanja .... Gawat banget ...... Ketahuan banget bedanya berbanding 1-2 tahun yang lalu ... GIla, tadi aku ke Mal di JB yang jadi favorit orang SG buat belanja... Guess what happened, mal itu sepiii - sepiiii banget .. Jam 9 dah pada tutup :bash:

Jangan lupa, sektor energi juga termasuk sektor yang tidak akan terganggu krisis. Karena ini captive market, selain demandnya yg terus melonjak. Orang boleh bilang krisis2... tapi toh tetap butuh energi. Konsumsi listrik itu ibarat pake narkoba, sekali pakai malah jadi semakin ketagihan. Buktinya pembangunan PLT, tetap aja tidak mengurangi gap supply vs demand. So, the demand is still there, even greater.

Indonesia's GDP to grow 5.5%


INDONESIA'S economy will grow around 5.5 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, helped by increased government spending and lower inflation, the country's finance minister said on Tuesday.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said Southeast Asia's biggest economy will benefit from the government's stimulus package, lower inflation and a stable exchange rate.

'I think it's going to provide a cushion for households in Indonesia to still maintain a quite healthy growth for this year,' Indrawati told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of a Unicef conference.

Ms Indrawati on Monday announced plans to spend more than 72 trillion rupiah (S$9.58 billion) on infrastructure and other projects to boost growth and create jobs, and said further funds were available if needed.

Ms Indrawati reiterated the government's economic growth forecast of 5 percent for 2009 at a media briefing on Monday, down from 6.2 per cent in 2008. -- REUTERS

^^

We need to buy and consume our own products even more to make this happen..

:grouphug:

Paragraf pertama, inferior mah nggak lah, bagaimanapun ini negara kita. Cuma kalau gw sih prefer stay realistic aja kali ya, ga pesimis en selalu ngejelek2in, tp juga ga suka terlalu membangga2kan Indo. Biar bagaimanapun negara ini masih belum sempurna dan masih harus terus dibenahi. Kalau tiap hari dijejelin berita positif trus juga ntar kaget en kecewa loh kalau kenyataannya beda...

Sangat setuju, kita ini sebenarnya sudah krisis. Tapi sama pemerintah keadaan dan pemberitaan dikontrol. Pers juga bertanggung jawab.

Yang dulu tahun 1998 harusnya kita bisa tetap aman dan tenang, tapi karena waktu itu ada Krisis Politik, Kerusuhan Mei 1998, jadi keadaannya gawat, pers nya lagi duhh kompor sana-sini. Dulu yang hebat itu, dulu ada RUSH karena isu barang bakal habis di pasaran, dan akan melonjak dahsyat dalam beberapa hari ke depan. RUSH waktu itu gak hanya di Jakarta. Karena di Batam dulu, keluargaku ikut rame2 juga gara2 isu itu. Pokoknya satu Indonesia dulu. Langsung deh banyak komoditas lenyap dari pasaran.

setelah investor Thailand, kali ini investor Korea yg masuk Jambi

Korea Investasikan Rp 10 Triliun, Bangun PLTU dan Jalan Kereta Api

KOTAJAMBI - Pengusaha Korea akan menginvestasikan uangnya sekitar Rp 10 Triliun untuk membangun PLTU dan jalur kereta api di Propinsi Jambi. Tapi kalangan wartawan yang ikut mendengar ekspos itu meragukan terealisasi proyek yang menghabiskan dana cukup besar ini. Karena selama ini banyak ekspos tidak ada realisasi.

Investasi yang akan ditanamkan di Jambi senilai Rp.10 Triliun itu, untuk pembangunan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Uap ( PLTU) sebesar 220 juta USD dan pembangunan rel Kereta Api sebesar 794 juta USD dan bila dirupiahkan senilai Rp.10 Triliun.

Dalam pembangunan ini pengusaha Korea akan mengandeng perusahaan Indonesia PT.Karya Bumi Bratama. Untuk menyakinkan Pemda Jambi, pengusaha Korea tersebut sudah mengekspos rencana kerja mereka di hadapan Gubernur Jambi, H. Zulkifli Nurdin, didampingi oleh Asisten I Sekda H.Hasan Kasim,SH dan Ketua Bappeda Propinsi Jambi di Kantor Gubernur, Selasa (6/01/09)

Dalam pemaparan Mr. Lie bahwa jalur kereta api itu akan berawal di Kabupaten Sarolangun menuju Pelabuhan Muara Sabak, melewati beberapa kabupaten, seperti Kabupaten Batang Hari, Muaro Jambi, Kota Jambi dan Tanjung Jabung Timur, panjang jalur Kereta Api yang kan dibangun mempunyai 3 alternatif, yakni I jalur pendek hanya 218 km, jalur kedua 221 km dan jalur ketiga mengambil jalur sisi kota tapi akan menempuh jalur yang sangat panjang dan biaya yang sangat besar, termasuk biaya pembebasan lahan.

Gubernur secara prinsip sangat setuju dan menyambut serta mendukung baik rencana pembangunan yang akan dilaksanakan PT.Karya Bumi Bratama ini “saya secara prinsip setuju, namun yang penting pembangunan ini harus memberikan pola terpadu.” ujarnya.

Apalagi masalah perizinan, dan lintas Kabupaten Kota tidak perlu diragukan lagi, pemerintah Propinsi Jambi dan para Bupati akan memberikan kemudahan dalam perizinannya nanti, karena itu merupakan tanggung jawab Pemerintah Propinsi Jambi, alagi pembangunan ini sangat mendukung perekonomian Jambi.

Tapi yang perlu dibangun lebih dulu itu adalah PLTU, karena listrik itu sangat dibutuhkan dalam pergerakan perkeretaapian, tanpa listrik itu tidak mungkin dapat berjalan dengan baik, dan Kereta Api merupakan alat angkut Batu Bara yang dihasilkan oleh beberapa Kabupaten yang ada di Jambi, seperti di Kabupaten Sarolangun, berarti dengan adanya Kereta Api maka untuk mengangkut Batu Bara kepelabuhan Muara Sabak tidak memakai jalan darat, dan ini berarti pula jalan kita tidak mengalami kerusakan akibat beban berat.

Untuk menentukan jalur yang akan ditempuh nanti, akan dibentuk Tim khusus yang terdiri dari Pihak Pemerintah Propinsi dan Kabupaten serta pihak PT Karya Bumi Bratama.

Seorang wartawan media nasional, meragukan terealisasi mega proyek ini, soalnya dananya cukup besar, juga tidak jelas dari mana mereka mendapatkan keuntungan dari uang yang ditanamkan begitu besar." Ya...kita sudah sering meliput acara-acara Pemda, baik ekspos, MOU dan sebagainya, paling benter gaungnya di media saja," ujarnya.

Kebijakan BI udah cukup bagus .. tinggal rubah rezim devisa bebas menjadi devisa terkendali (seperti yang dilakukan oleh Singapura, Malaysia, Thailand dan Cina) agar IDR lebih stabil pergerakannya dan juga untuk mencapai standar cadangan devisa minimal sebesar USD100.0 Milyar (seperti yang disarankan oleh Bank Dunia, ADB dan Ekonomis lainnya) ..

Indonesian central bank cuts rate by 50 basis point to 8.75%
Special Report:Global Financial Crisis

JAKARTA, Jan. 7 (Xinhua) -- The Indonesian central bank Wednesday slashed its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.75 percent following the good outlook of inflation to spur growth, according to a statement by the bank.

The 50 basis point cut is in line with the recent demand from the government and business sectors to boost retail sector, as the country has decided to rely much on the huge domestic market following the fall of demand of its products in overseas.

The recession has trimmed demand and slumped prices of Indonesia's export products, including textile coal, palm oil, rubber and fabricated goods.

On Dec. 4, the Indonesian central bank unexpectedly reduced the rate by 25 basis points to 9.25 percent, the first cut in a year.

Improving inflation outlook in recent months has given more rooms for the central bank to further cut rates, particularly in the first quarter of this year before the country holds the direct legislative and presidential election in April and July respectively.

An economic analyst from the Bank International Indonesia (BII), who goes with a single name Juniman, said the 50 basis point cuts indicated that the bank aimed to focus on growth.

"There will be more cuts in the coming months until April, as the inflation seems to ease," he told Xinhua.

Indonesia's inflation rate rose 11.06 percent in December from a year earlier following the twice oil prices cuts by the government last month.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani has said that the huge spending on the polls and stimulus package of 50 trillion rupiah (some 4.9 billion U.S. dollars), as well as 4.6 billion U.S. dollars of unspent funds in 2008 are expected to contribute to boost growth to 5 percent this year.

ada tak investor indonesia yg masuk ke jalan kereta api/highway or pembangkit listrik negara lain...??

^^

Wijaya Karya dulu klo gak salah pernah dapat proyek highway di Algeria dan negara timur tengah lain

truz mbak tutut melalui perusahaan apa yah.. ikut ambil bagian dalam proyek north - south highway nya Malaysia juga, ngga tahu skarang masih berlanjut ngga ato punya investasi di expressway berhad mungkin..

^^ kalo ga salah investasi orang Indonesia ke LN taun ini meningkat jadi USD 12 Miliar lebih

^^

Wika Raih Proyek Bendungan Senilai Rp240 Miliar

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) pada 2009 memperoleh kontrak baru proyek pembangunan bendungan di Batam dengan nilai sekitar Rp240 miliar, selain mengerjakan proyek yang merupakan pengalihan dari tahun 2008.

"Penandatanganan kontrak pembangunan dam (bendungan--red) dilakukan Rabu (7/1)," kata Direktur Keuangan WIKA, Ganda Kusuma, di Jakarta, Kamis.

Menurut Ganda, perolehan kontrak pembangunan bendungan tersebut merupakan suatu prestasi tersendiri bagi perusahaan karena dalam satu pekan awal tahun 2009 telah berhasil menandatangani proyek, apalagi situasinya di tengah situasi krisis keuangan.

"Proyek ini masih hangat...," ujarnya.

Ia menjelaskan, selain proyek tersebut, sejumlah proyek yang masih digarap dan penyelesaiannya pada tahun 2009 dan 2010 yaitu pembangkit listrik, proyek infrastruktur (jalan dan jembatan, pelabuhan, irigasi) dan energi (PLTU, PLTP, dan tabung gas).

"Proyek-proyek ini menyumbang mayoritas pendapatan WIKA tahun lalu (2008), dan tentunya masuk juga pada pendapatan tahun berikutnya (2009)," kata Ganda.

Secara keseluruhan ujarnya, perseroan menargetkan dapat mencatat "order book" (pesanan yang dibukukan) senilai Rp15 triliun, dengan tingkat penjualan Rp7,4 triliun dan proyeksi laba bersih Rp175 miliar.

"Untuk mencapai target itu, WIKA masih mengandalkan belanja pemerintah dalam pengembangan infrastruktur, seperti pembangunan pembangkit listrik (power plant), dan proyek infrastruktur lainnya," katanya.

Pada kesempatan itu, ia juga menuturkan selain proyek di dalam negeri pada tahun 2009 perseroan berhasil mendapat dua proyek baru di Timur Tengah yaitu pembangunan dua "power plant" (pembangkit listrik) berkapasitas 2 X 500 Megawatt (MW), di Riyadh, Arab Saudi dan pembangunan "underpass" yang membelah lautan atau tunnel (terowongan bawah laut) di Palem Jabrali, Dubai.

Nilai investasi dua pembangkit itu mencapai Rp1,4 triliun, sedangkan nilai investasi pembangunan tunnel mencapai Rp 600 miliar.

Adapun proyek pembangkit listrik sedang dalam tahap perencanaan pembangunan yang dijadwalkan rampung pada 2011, sedangkan terowongan sepanjang 1,1 km mulai dibangun awal 2009 selesai tahun 2010.

^^

Wijaya Karya dulu klo gak salah pernah dapat proyek highway di Algeria dan negara timur tengah lain

truz mbak tutut melalui perusahaan apa yah.. ikut ambil bagian dalam proyek north - south highway nya Malaysia juga, ngga tahu skarang masih berlanjut ngga ato punya investasi di expressway berhad mungkin..

Mas,,, itu namanya bukan investasi ...

Investasi itu kita menanamkan uang di negara orang. Kalau kasus Wijaya Karya (dan banya Kontraktor INdonesia, mulai dari AdhiKarya, Waskita Karya, PT. PP, Nindya Karya, Hutama Karya, dan karya2 yang lain) itu bukan investasi istilahnya, tapi mereka menang tender untuk membangun proyek di negara orang.

Mereka tentu saja bukan mengeluarkan uang untuk itu, justru mereka di bayar. Yang dikatakan investasi itu, kalau pihak J.CO membuka cabang di City Square, Johor bahru (memang dah buka beneran). Atau Pertamina, buka SPBU di Malaysia (which is closer to impossibility), atau pihak CIputra bangun apartemen di SIngapura. Gitu :)...

Indonesia: Well-shielded from external volatility


Indonesia’s population of 223 million in 2006 is expected to rise to 280 million in 2025. Its’ GDP of USD899 billion (at PPP) in 2006 is targeted to grow at 6% per annum to reach USD2,829 billion by 2025. By then, its per capita GDP is expected to rise from USD3,700 to USD10,000.

Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) composition remains largely dependent on domestic consumption. Net exports account for around 10 percent of GDP while private plus government consumption accounts for close to 65 percent.

Against a backdrop of global economic slowdown, this provides safety for investors.

It is worth pointing out that throughout 2008 thus far, Indonesia's GDP has continued to book positive momentum with GDP in the third quarter of last year up 3.5 percent from a quarter earlier.

For the whole of 2008, our economist still expects Indonesia to book at least 6.0 percent GDP growth.

Thus, in 2009, although we expect Indonesia to suffer from declining exports and investments given slowing global economies, we still expect GDP to remain positive at 4.8 percent, helped by government pump priming ahead of the 2009 elections, particularly in Java.

In addition, we expect lower food inflation coupled with lower fuel prices stemming from low commodity prices to accelerate the recovery of purchasing power in Java. Thus far, we have seen regular gasoline prices at the pump having been reduced twice to Rp 5,000 per liter, or down Rp 1,000 per liter, since the beginning of December 2008.

We must not underestimate the impact of this 17 percent reduction on gasoline prices on consumption.

For example, a taxi driver in Jakarta who on average utilizes 20 liters of gasoline per day will be able to save around Rp 600,000 (US$55) per month to be channeled to other needs.

By Jan. 15, according to the government, we could see further cuts in fuel prices, including diesel, which would have a larger impact as diesel fuel is widely used for transportation.

With oil at around $45 per barrel, the Indonesian government is currently paying Rp 3,900 per liter based on our estimate.

With the long-term oil price at $30/bbl, excluding the speculative element which occurred between second quarter of 2006 and second quarter 2008, the pricing outlook should remain on the downside in 2009 in spite of the current price spike due to the Gaza ordeal and OPEC's efforts to reduce output.

In 2009, we expect the outer islands' performances to continue to remain weak on the back of low commodity prices. However, we are hopeful that Java, home of the majority of voters, would be able to take up the slack.

With 2009 elections just around the corner, the parliament has asked to end the direct cash transfer program (BLT) of Rp 100,000 per month per targeted household. This will end in February 2009.

However, the central government is already implementing an anti poverty funding program through to 2015 called the National Program for Community Empowerment (PNPM Mandiri) by providing up to Rp 3 billion per sub district to be channeled out to those who require working capital.

This Rp 11 trillion ($1 billion) job creation program to 6,408 sub districts should help offset the adverse impact of lower disposable income stemming from rising unemployment. With most of the voters being in Java, we believe the PNPM Mandiri scheme will be prioritized for the Javanese in 2009.

With Java accounting for around 60 percent of Indonesia's population, the government has no choice but to focus on the welfare of the Javanese if it wants to get re-elected.

Historical data suggests that there was a noticeable pick up in Java's consumer confidence during the 2004 elections. We expect this to recur in 2009.

Kamis, 08/01/2009 17:28 WIB

Kontraktor berebut proyek pemerintah
oleh : A Dadan Muhanda

JAKARTA (bisnis.com): Kontraktor akan berebut proyek pemerintah pada tahun ini karena ada pelambatan pada proyek swasta akibat perusahaan membatasi ekpansi dan investasinya.�

Victor Sitorus, Sekjen Asosiasi Kontraktor Indonesia, mengemukakan perusahaan konstruksi pada tahun ini lebih memilih proyek pemerintah yang mempunyai sumber pendanaan lebih terjamin, dibandingkan perusahaan swasta yang mengandalkan dana dari bank.

"Kontraktor akan pilih-pilih dulu mengerjakan proyek swasta tahun ini. Proyek pemerintah akan menjadi andalan karena anggarannya tidak turun dan lebih terjamin," ujarnya kepada Bisnis hari ini.

Victor mengemukakan sejumlah mitra usaha dari perusahaan swasta sudah membatalkan kontrak kerjanya untuk proyek 2009 pada akhir tahun lalu. Kondisi ini sebagai indikasi bahwa proyek konstruksi tahun ini akan ada pelambatan.

Berdasarkan data BCI Asia, perusahaan riset dan jasa konstruksi, nilai proyek konstruksi nasional tahun ini turun 16% dari US$27,2 miliar menjadi US$22,9 miliar akibat dampak krisis global. (tw)

No friends in OPEC, huh? They want oil at $70. I have to say the economy is well-positioned to withstand the global crisis. But it'd be really helpful if oil stayed in that $30-40 range and the government could reduce prices another 500 rupiah.

A good article and analysis .....

Where did all the money disappear? Liquid fantasies
by Satyajit Das

In recent years, money was cheap and other assets were expensive. But as each of the global economy’s credit creation engines breaks down and systemic leverage declines, money becomes scarce and expensive, triggering adjustments that are reversing the run-up in asset prices.

In this current financial crisis, the quantum of available capital, the munificent resources of central banks and sovereign wealth funds, and the globalization of capital flows may be some of the accepted "facts" that are revealed to be grand illusions. As Mark Twain once advised: "Don’t part with you illusions. When they are gone, you may still exist, but you have ceased to live."

Reserve Illusions

In recent years, there has been speculation about the amount of capital or liquidity available for investment globally. The substantial reserves of central banks and their acolytes, sovereign wealth funds, were frequently cited in support of the case for a large pool of "unleveraged" liquidity − that is, "real" money. In reality, the available pool of money may be more modest than assumed.

For example, China has close to $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. The reserves arise from dollars received from exports and foreign investment into China that are exchanged into Renminbi. The central bank generates Renminbi by printing money or borrowing through issuing bonds in the domestic market. On China’s "balance sheet," the reserves are essentially leveraged using domestic "liabilities."

In order to avoid increases in the value of the Renminbi that would affect the competitive position of its exporters, China undertakes "currency sterilization" − operations where it issues bonds to mop up the excess liquidity. China incurs costs – effectively a subsidy to its exporters − of around $60 billion per annum (the difference between the rate it pays on its Renminbi debt and the investment income on its reserves).

The dollars acquired are invested in foreign currency assets, around 60% in dollar-denominated U.S. Treasury bonds, government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) paper such as Freddie and Fannie Mae debt, and other high quality securities. China is exposed to price changes in these investments and currency risk because of the mismatch between foreign currency assets funded with local currency debt.

Deterioration in the U.S. economy and the need to issue additional debt to support the financial sector may place increasing pressure on the U.S. sovereign rating and the dollar. U.S. government support for financial institutions is already approaching 6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared to less than 4% for the savings and loan crisis.

Deterioration in the credit quality of the United States results in losses on investment through falls in the market value of the debt and a weaker dollar. The credit default swap (CDS) market for sovereign debt is increasingly pricing-in increased funding costs for the United States. The fee for hedging against losses on $10 million of Treasurys was about 0.58 per annum for 10 years (equivalent to $58,000 annually) in December 2008. This is an increase from 0.01% ($1,000) in 2007 and 0.40% ($40,000) in October 2008.

It is also not easy to tap this liquidity pool. Given the size of the portfolios, it is difficult for large investors such as China to rapidly mobilize a large portion of these funds by liquidating their investments and converting them into the home currency without substantial losses. This means that this money may not, in reality, be available, at least at short notice. If the dollar assets lose value or cannot be accessed, then China must still service its liabilities. It can print money but will suffer the economic consequences including inflation and higher funding costs.

The position of emerging-market sovereign investors with large portfolios of dollar assets is similar to that of a bank or leveraged hedge fund with poor quality assets. China’s Premier Wen Jiabao recently expressed concern: "If anything goes wrong in the U.S. financial sector, we are anxious about the safety and security of Chinese capital …." In December 2008, Wang Qishan, a Chinese vice premier, noted: "We hope the U.S. side will take the necessary measures to stabilize the economy and financial markets as well as guarantee the safety of China’s assets and investments in the U.S."

There are other factors affecting the availability of the reserves at central banks and sovereign wealth funds. In recent years, sovereign wealth funds have also suffered losses on some of their investments, most notably in U.S. and European financial institutions.

Some central banks have been forced to utilize reserves to support the domestic economy and banking system. For example, South Korea has used a portion of its reserves to provide dollars to banks unable to refinance short-term dollar borrowings in international money markets.

Russia has similarly used a significant portion of its reserves to support financial institutions and also its domestic markets. Russia’s reserves, which rank third after China’s and Japan’s reserves in size, have fallen $122.7 billion, or 21 percent, since August 2008. The reserves, including oil funds that exclusively act as a safety cushion for the budget, stood at $475.4 billion on November 2008.

Capital Illusions

The substantial buildup of foreign reserves in central banks of emerging markets and developing countries, as identified by David Roche (see David Roche and Bob McKee, 2007, "New Monetarism," Independent Strategy Publications), is really a liquidity creation scheme that relies on the dollar’s favored position in trade and as a reserve currency.

Many global currencies are pegged to the dollar at an artificially low rate, like the Chinese Renminbi, to maintain export competitiveness. This creates an outflow of dollars (via the trade deficit that is driven by excess U.S. demand for imports based on an overvalued dollar). Foreign central bankers are forced to purchase U.S. debt with dollars to mitigate upward pressure on their domestic currency.

Facilitating this process are the large, liquid markets in dollars and dollar investments capable of accommodating the very large investment requirements and the historically unimpeachable credit quality of the U.S. sovereign assets. The recycled dollars flow back to the United States to finance the spending.

This merry-go-round is a significant source of liquidity creation in financial markets. It also kept U.S. interest rates and cost of capital low, encouraging further borrowing to finance consumption and imports to keep the cycle going. This process increased the velocity of money and exaggerated the level of global liquidity.

The large buildup in reserves in oil exporters from higher oil prices and higher demand from strong world growth was also recycled into U.S. dollar debt. The entire process was reminiscent of the "petrodollar" recycling of the 1970s.

The central banks holding reserves were lending the funds used to purchase goods from the country. In effect, the exporter never got paid − at least until the loan to the buyer (the finance vendor) was paid off. As the debt crisis intensifies and global growth diminishes with increased defaults, it is increasingly likely that this debt will not be paid back in it entirety.

This liquidity circulation process supported, in part, the growth in global trade. This too may have been an illusion as the underlying process is a gigantic vendor financing scheme.

Trade Illusions

An accepted article of economic faith is that failure of economic cooperation and resurgent nationalism in the form of trade protectionism (for example, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act) contributed to the global financial crisis of the 1930s.

The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent banking crisis caused a collapse in financing and global demand, resulting in a sharp decrease in the U.S. trade surplus. Smoot-Hawley was passed in 1930 to deal with the problem of overcapacity in the U.S. economy through higher tariffs designed to increase domestic firms’ market share. The higher U.S. tariffs led to retaliation from trading partners affecting global trade.

The slowdown in central bank reserve recirculation affects global trade by decreasing the availability of financing for purchasers to buy goods and services. This is apparent in the sharp slowdown in consumer consumption in the United States, United Kingdom and other economies. It should be noted that it was the availability of cheap financing that fueled consumption by helping drive up asset prices which, in turn, allowed excessive borrowing against the inflated value of the assets.

Weakness in the global banking system (in particular, loan losses, the lack of capital and concerns about counter-party risk between large financial institutions) contributes to restricted availability of trade letters of credit, guarantees and trade finance generally. This exacerbates the problem. The restrictions, in turn, further impact the level of trade flows and capital recirculation, resulting in a further decrease in trade activity that in turn further slows down international credit creation.

It is not easy to fix the problem. Redirection of capital held in central banks and sovereign wealth funds to domestic economies affects the global capital flows needed to finance the debtor countries, such as the United States, and recapitalize the banking system. Maintenance of the cross border capital flows to finance the debtor countries budget and trade deficits slows down growth in emerging countries and also perpetuates the imbalances.

Trade has become subordinate to and the handmaiden of capital flows. As capital flows slow down, global trade follows. Indirectly, the contraction of cross border capital flows and credit acts as a barrier to trade. In each case, deleveraging is the end result.

This opens the way to "capital protectionism." Foreign investors may change their focus and reduce their willingness to finance the United States. Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister, indicated that China’s "greatest contribution to the world" would be to keep its own economy running smoothly. This may signal a shift whereby China uses its savings to invest in the domestic economy rather than to finance U.S. needs.

China and other emerging countries with large reserves were motivated to build surpluses in response to the Asian crisis of 1997-98. Reserves were seen as protection against the destabilizing volatility of short-term capital flows. The strategy has proved to be flawed.

It promoted a global economy based on "vendor financing" by the exporting nations. The strategy also exposed the emerging countries to the currency and credit risk of the investments made with the reserves. Significant shifts in economic strategy are likely. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the Chinese central bank, commented: "Over-consumption and a high reliance on credit is the cause of the U.S. financial crisis. As the largest and most important economy in the world, the U.S. should take the initiative to adjust its policies, raise its savings ratio appropriately and reduce its trade and fiscal deficits."

More ominously, Chinese President Hu Jintao recently noted: "From a long-term perspective, it is necessary to change those models of economic growth that are not sustainable and to address the underlying problems in member economies."

There is also the risk of "traditional" trade protectionism. The end of the current liquidity cycle, like the one in the 1930s, may cause a sharp fall in exports. Exporting countries, seeking to maintain domestic growth, may try to boost exports by devaluation of the currency or subsidies. Import tariffs are less effective unless there is a large domestic market. Recently, the Chinese central bank did not rule out China depreciating its currency.

The change in these credit engines also distorts currency values and the patterns of global trade and capital flows. The current strength in the dollar, particularly against the euro, reflects repatriation of capital by investors and the shortage of dollars from the slowdown in the dollar liquidity recirculation process. It is also driven by the reliance on short-term dollar financing of some banks and countries and the need for refinancing. This is evident in the persistence of high interbank dollar rates and dollar strength.

The strength of the dollar is unhelpful in facilitating the required adjustment in the current account and also financing of the U.S. budget deficit.

The slowdown in the credit and liquidity processes outlined may have long-term effects on global trade flows. The volume of world traded, according to the World Bank, may contract by 2.1% in 2009. This contrasts with growth of 9.8 % 2006 and an estimated 6.2 % in 2008. The expected drop for 2009 is more severe than the last major contraction in trade volume of 1.9 % in 1975.

End of "Candy Floss" Money

Gillian Tett of the Financial Times coined the phrase "candy floss money" (see "Should Atlas still shrug?" January 15, 2007 Financial Times). New financial technology spun available "real" money into an exaggerated bubble that, like its fairground equivalent, collapses ultimately.

The global liquidity process was multifaceted. There was traditional domestic credit creation system built on the fractional reserve system that underpins banking. The leverage in the system was pushed to extreme levels. Losses and renewed regulation are forcing this system of credit creation to shut down.

The foreign exchange reserve system was another part of the global credit process. Dollar liquidity recirculation has also slowed as a result of reduced trade flows (driven by declines in U.S. consumption and imports), losses on dollar investments, domestic claims on reserves and the inability to readily mobilize large amount of reserves.

Another credit process − the export of yen savings via the yen carry trade and acquisition of foreign assets by Japanese investors − has also slowed.

The focus of the November 2008 G-20 meeting was firmly on financial sector reform. Stabilization of global capital flows in the short term and addressing global imbalances over the medium to long term barely merited a mention. It may well come to be seen in coming weeks and months as a major missed opportunity to address these issues.

Markets placed great faith in the volume of money available to support asset prices and assist in alleviating shortages of liquidity. The perceived abundance of liquidity was, in reality, merely an illusion created by high levels of debt and leverage as well as the structure of global capital flows. As the financial system deleverages, it is becoming clear, unsurprisingly, that available capital is more limited than previously estimated.

As Sigmund Freud once observed: "Illusions commend themselves to us because they save us pain and allow us to enjoy pleasure instead. We must therefore accept it without complaint when they sometimes collide with a bit of reality against which they are dashed to pieces."

There is an apocryphal story about a disgraced rock star who ended up in bankruptcy court. When asked what happened to his fortune of several million dollars, he responded: "Some went in drugs and alcohol, I gambled some of it away, some went on women and the rest I probably wasted!" Financial markets have "wasted" a staggering amount of money that ironically probably did not "exist" in the first place.

Satyajit Das is a risk consultant and author of "Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives" (2006, FT-Prentice Hall).

Jumat, 09/01/2009 18:27 WIB

Ekspatriat bakal dongkrak bisnis properti


oleh : Rachmad Hidayatullah



SURABAYA (bisnis.com): Peningkatan jumlah ekspatriat yang tinggal di Surabaya dan beberapa kota lainnya di Jatim diharapkan dapat mendongkrak bisnis properti di provinsi itu.

Dirut PT Suryainti Permata Tbk Henry J Gunawan memperkirakan jumlah ekspatriat yang tinggal di Surabaya saja mencapai sekitar 10.000 orang. Mereka kebanyakan berasal dari Jepang, Taiwan, Korea, Amerika Serikat, dan beberapa negara lainnya.

"Bayangkan bila 10% saja dari jumlah tersebut membelanjakan uangnya di properti, maka akan ada sekitar Rp1,5 triliun dana yang masuk. Dengan perhitungan para ekspatriat hanya boleh membeli properti dengan harga minimal Rp1,5 miliar," jelas Henry hari ini.

Namun penjualan properti kepada warga asing ini masih belum memiliki payung hukum resmi. Sebuah aturan yang tengah diusulkan para pengembang adalah warga asing dapat membeli properti dengan hak pakai selama 70 tahun, namun usulan tersebut masih dalam penggodokan pemerintah.

Henry mengajukan contoh Singapura yang berani memberikan hak pakai lahan kepada warga asing. Meski melihat ada potensi besar di segmen ekspatriat, Henry masih menjatuhkan harapan besar pada masyarakat lokal.

"Untuk town house La Foye yang sedang dibangun, kami optimistis mampu menjual habis kepada warga Surabaya saja sebab potensinya memang masih besar. Dan perlu diketahui saat ini waktu yang tepat untuk belanja properti," tuturnya.

Makanya, properti dengan harga jual Rp1,8 miliar-Rp4 miliar ini ditargetkan habis terjual pada 2009. Jumlah unit yang telah terjual hingga saat ini sekitar 15%. Sebanyak 60 unit town house La Foye dibangun di atas lahan lebih dari satu hektare di kawasan Dukuh Kupang-Surabaya.

Beberapa waktu lalu, Direktur PT Ciputra Surya Tbk Sutoto Yakobus pernah mengemukakan strategisnya membuka pintu pemilikan properti bagi warga asing dengan menggunakan hak pakai. Dia mengacu pada gencarnya pengembang asing yang menawarkan propertinya di Indonesia.

Berbagai kemudahan yang ditawarkan cukup menjadi penarik minat warga Indonesia. Padahal di saat yang sama, sangat banyak properti Indonesia yang juga sedang dibangun yang butuh pemasaran yang luas. (tw)

November kmaren, g liat di CNN-CNAI-BBC-Bloomberg, govt SG udah menyatakan kalo SG udah masuk resesi & mengalami kontraksi di Q4 2008.

Tapi data realnya g blom tau, ntar tak cari2 dulu deh data nya :D



sekadar informasi, singapur uda resesi sejak akhir Q3 2008, artinya kontraksi GDP nya uda dari Q2 2008 (resesi kan artinya 2 quarter berturut2 kontraksi).

kemudian lagi target pertumbuhan mereka tahun 2008 ga sampe 7% lah, gila aja kalo negara sekecil itu berani masang target segitu.. target mereka tahun lalu cuma sekitar 5% kok.. kemudian realisasinya kalo ga salah sekitar 1%..

tapi jgn salah biarpun resesi2 gini, tapi beberapa tahun terakhir itu mereka surplus nya banyak sekali.. jadi pemerintah nya sekarang lagi nyiapin stimulus yg bakal membantu rakyatnya.. ga usah dicemasin deh singapur ini, biar resesi masi tetap makmur, walau ga semakmur tahun lalu..

buat yg kurang suka ma singapur, atau pengen ngeliat singapur susah, caranya gampang kok:
1. stop berlibur dan belanja di singapur
2. stop berobat ke singapur

gua yakin seandainya semua rakyat indonesia melakukan itu, mereka pasti bakal susah.. :D

Indonesia Should Embrace Urbanization, Says World Bank


The World Bank said the Indonesian government should not be concerned about the growing trend toward urbanization in the country because it indicates “progress in development.”

The suggestion was made as the bank released its annual World Development Report on Thursday. The report, “Reshaping Economic Geography,” was discussed during a seminar organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.

“The most important thing is how to manage urbanization,” said Yukon Huang, who wrote the East Asia edition of the report.

The bank said governments should strengthen agglomerations, or large, continuous urban and suburban areas, by supporting inclusive urbanization and migration in certain economic centers.

The report said urbanization can lead to higher population density, which is key to integrating nations. Regional integration within a country facilitates greater access to global markets, the report said.

The report’s conclusions, however, contradict the views of the Indonesian government — and those of the Jakarta administration in particular — on the need to balance economic opportunities across the country to reduce increasing income disparities between people living in major population centers and those living in rural areas.

The Jakarta administration, for example, launches frequent operations to return unskilled migrants back to their home villages, although these efforts often prove to be unsuccessful.

About 60 percent of Indonesia’s population is concentrated on the island of Java, while the remainder is scattered across the rest of the archipelago. Java also accounts for 52 percent of the country’s total GDP.

Indermit S. Gill, the report’s director and the World Bank’s chief economist for Europe and Central Asia, explained that economic growth does not automatically occur everywhere.

“Markets favor some places over others. Governments should facilitate the geographic concentration of production, while at the same time facilitating basic needs such as [key infrastructure] and security,” he said.

The report said successful development requires the spatial concentration of production and economic integration.

Policy makers should aim to build population density, reduce distances and eliminate divisions, it said.

“The consequence will be uneven growth, but, with appropriate policies, more inclusive development will come, sooner rather than later,” the report said.

The report, which drew on the development path followed in North America, Western Europe and East Asia, acknowledged that the geographical setting of a country such as Indonesia — which has more than 17,000 islands — could act as an obstacle to economic agglomeration.

Bulog improving, more efficiency, less corruption


Despite having been in the red for years, state logistics company Perum Bulog has finally booked a surplus thanks in part to increased efficiency and stiffer punishments to staff found guilty of irregularities which could have caused state losses.

President director Mustafa Abubakar said Thursday Bulog booked a Rp 85 billion (US$7.73 million) surplus last year, which he claimed to be the first in its history.

Mustafa said he had been conducting numerous efficiency programs across the organization to cut costs and improve Bulog since his appointment in 2007.

"In 2006, Bulog suffered a deficit of Rp 524 billion," he told reporters in a press briefing at his office.

"With more efficiency, the deficit kept declining before we booked a surplus for the first time."

Mustafa was appointed to lead Bulog in 2007 after holding a post as an acting Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam governor between 2005 and 2007, and is a prominent member of the military-linked Golkar party.

He replaced former Bulog president director Widjanarko Puspoyo, who at that time was implicated in the embezzlement of rice exports to South Africa.

Bulog, often considered a cash cow for politicians and their political parties, has lured many of its former top officials into a series of scandals.

Bulog's efficiency programs involved, among others, an improvement in the management of and cost cutting in relation to plastic bag procurement, printing and transportation services.

"Since April 1, 2007, we started with a new corporate culture, a new management, and we have been running massive efficiency programs," said Mustafa.

"We've set the lowest prices for plastic bag printing and transportation services, and also stopped giving out bargaining and commission fees, which made Singaporeans (companies that were doing business with Bulog) shocked," he added.

Bulog will continue to reform itself, notably in its wide-ranging distribution networks.

In the beginning, it will give five regional divisions in South Sumatra, Central Java, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara and South Sulawesi full authority to carry out public tenders for transportation services in distributing rice in their respective territories.

Those divisions were appointed due to their capabilities for the generation of higher amounts of surplus rice stocks, said Mustafa.

Bulog's efficiency programs have also helped bring about a declining trend in rice imports, which amounted to around 1 million tons in 2007 falling to zero imports in 2008.

"In 2008, we became self-reliant in rice. Hopefully, we can start initiating exports of high-quality rice in 2009."

Bulog has also intensified efforts in cracking down on irregularities by handing down more severe punishments.

As many as 67 employees, all at Bulog's central office, were punished for irregularities in 2008 ranging from warnings and demotions to forced resignations.

According to Bulog human resources director Deddy Kodir, the irregularities mostly involved cases such as mark-ups in fees and the loss of rice supply.

Sepak Terjang Perempuan Paling Berpengaruh

http://sgstb.msn.com/i/EA/90193DBC7FAF2135E8809BBBFAD4BD.jpg

Tidaklah terlalu mengejutkan ketika Dr Sri Mulyani Indrawati, menteri keuangan sekaligus pelaksana jabatan menteri koordinator perekonomian, kembali dinobatkan sebagai People of The Year (POTY) 2008 setelah mendapatkan gelar yang sama untuk tahun 2007.

Dari sisi liputan media, jelas perempuan yang baru berusia 46 tahun ini, sangat sering menghiasi halaman depan surat kabar ataupun berita utama televisi.

Sebagai negara yang mencatat pertumbuhan ekonomi cukup tinggi tetapi masih mempunyai berbagai masalah ekonomi di tingkat masyarakat yang cukup pelik, peranan Menteri Keuangan Republik Indonesia sangatlah penting dan tangan dinginnya ditunggu banyak pihak.

Yang menarik, liputan tersebut sama intensitasnya, baik ketika ekonomi masih mengalami pertumbuhan yang cukup tinggi pada pertengahan awal 2008 maupun ketika ekonomi mulai melambat pertengahan akhir 2008.

Peristiwa ekonomi penting pada 2008 yang tentunya tidak boleh dilupakan adalah kenaikan harga minyak bumi yang mencapai rekor USD150 per barrel dalam jangka waktu relatif pendek dan menyeret kenaikan hampir semua komoditas primer, pangan, dan energi, dan akhirnya berwujud pada inflasi yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan.

Ujian pertama alumni Universitas Indonesia dan University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ini, pada 2008 adalah ketika APBN 2008 menghadapi kenyataan bahwa harga minyak mulai melonjak di atas asumsi yang sudah ditetapkan ketika APBN tersebut disahkan akhir 2007.

Dari sisi prosedural, pemerintah harus segera mengajukan APBN Perubahan, dan ketidakpastian harga minyak tersebut memaksa pemerintah melakukan perubahan lebih dari satu kali.Kepemimpinan menteri keuangan yang menghadapi DPR dalam melakukan perubahan APBN, diuji saat itu karena pemerintah dan DPR sama-sama tidak bisa membayangkan fluktuasi harga minyak yang terjadi sehingga penentuan asumsi harga minyak menjadi pertaruhan yang paling berat.

Meskipun asumsi yang akhirnya ditetapkan bukan yang paling akurat, APBN 2008 dapat berjalan dengan selamat dan mengatasi fluktuasi harga minyak dengan baik, ditolong juga dengan tren penurunan harga minyak yang cukup drastis pada akhir tahun.

Meskipun sementara pihak di luar pemerintah sering menuding pemerintah tidak becus melakukan prediksi, yang lebih penting adalah kemampuan mengelola APBN itu sendiri sampai akhir tahun fiskal.

Prediksi bisa meleset, tetapi apabila pengelolaan APBN baik dan berhati-hati, kekurangakuratan prediksi bisa diredam tanpa harus merugikan masyarakat. Ujian terberat Mbak Ani, sapaan akrabnya, adalah ketika pemerintah dipaksa menaikkan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) pada saat harga minyak bumi menjauh di atas asumsi APBN 2008.

Di mana pun di seluruh dunia,kenaikan harga BBM adalah kebijakan tidak populer. Namun, pada saat tersebut hampir tidak ada satu pun pemerintah di dunia yang dapat menahan tekanan kenaikan harga minyak dunia. Meskipun mendapat tekanan politik yang kuat untuk tidak menaikkan harga BBM, pemerintah tetap bersikukuh dan akhirnya terjadilah kenaikan sebesar 30 persen.

Sebagai menteri keuangan yang harus memperhatikan keberlanjutan anggaran, tantangan terbesar adalah menjaga keseimbangan antara besaran kenaikan harga dan beban yang ditanggung APBN. Kenaikan harga yang cukup besar jelas akan mengamankan APBN, tetapi akan menimbulkan beban berat bagi masyarakat.

Sebaliknya, kenaikan harga yang terlalu rendah akan mengancam keberlanjutan anggaran sementara kehidupan masyarakat mungkin tidak terlalu terpengaruh. Melihat data inflasi 2008, bisa disimpulkan bahwa kebijakan kenaikan harga BBM pada 2008 cukup mampu menjaga keseimbangan tersebut, di mana inflasi sebesar 11 persenberada di bawah perkiraan 12 persen dan kenaikan jumlah orang miskin bisa diredam.

Di sisi lain, APBN 2008 mencatat kinerja yang cukup lumayan,meskipun tentunya ada beberapa program pemerintah yang tidak sempat dijalankan dan terjadi kelambatan penyerapan anggaran menjelang akhir tahun anggaran. Terjadinya perlambatan ekonomi pada tengah tahun kedua,juga menolong meredam laju inflasi.

Selain sepak terjang dalam mengelola anggaran, prestasi Dr Sri Mulyani Indrawati dapat dipantau dari kemajuan reformasi birokrasi yang dilakukan di Departemen Keuangan. Meskipun cukup banyak kritik terhadap keefektifan program tersebut,dan terbongkarnya pungutan liar di kantor Bea Cukai Tanjung Priok, sudah mulai terlihat hasil yang bisa dijadikan landasan membuat kebijakan fiskal yang lebih baik di masa depan.

Yang terlihat ramai di permukaan, adalah gencarnya Direktorat Jenderal Pajak menambah jumlah pemegang NPWP (nomor pokok wajib pajak) dan tercapainya penerimaan pajak di atas target. Perbaikan kualitas birokrasi di Ditjen Pajak mulai terasa dampaknya dan sekaligus mendorong dilakukannya reformasi pajak besarbesaran, terutama dalam memperbanyak jumlah pembayar pajak serta menegakkan aturan-aturan pajak sendiri.

Selain program "sunset policy" yang mencoba mengarahkan pembayar pajak untuk memenuhi kewajibannya secara benar, perubahan terhadap undang-undang perpajakan juga memberi angin segar bagi masyarakat luas dan dunia usaha, di mana terdapat kesetaraan antara aparat pajak dan pembayar pajak serta beban pajak perseorangan yang lebih ringan.

Menteri Keuangan sendiri juga aktif mengampanyekan perlunya NPWP di setiap kesempatan. Bahkan di setiap kuliah awal semester di Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia, dia selalu menanyakan kepada mahasiswanya apakah orangtua mereka sudah punya NPWP atau belum.

Mulai diberikannya insentif fiskal bagi beberapa sektor dan komoditas yang berpotensi ekspor ataupun menyerap tenaga kerja, adalah hasil penting lain yang dihasilkan Departemen Keuangan dalam rangka menjadikan pajak sebagai salah satu motor penting pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional.

Komitmen Menkeu dalam disiplin serta keberlanjutan anggaran juga tercermin dalam kebijakan desentralisasi fiskal. Keprihatinan Menkeu yang disampaikan secara terus terang dalam berbagai kesempatan terhadap tren pemekaran daerah yang seolah tidak tertahankan, mencerminkan komitmen tersebut.

Sampai saat ini, sayangnya,kekuatan politik masih terlalu besar dibanding kekhawatiran terhadap keberlanjutan anggaran tersebut.Jelas ini merupakan pekerjaan rumah pemerintah yang masih belum selesai dalam rangka desentralisasi fiskal.

Teguran atau sentilan Menkeu terhadap daerahdaerah yang lambat membelanjakan anggarannya serta lambat atau bahkan gagal menyerap DAK adalah bentuk lain dari kepedulian Menkeu terhadap desentralisasi fiskal yang tetap perlu didukung,tetapi membutuhkan banyak penyempurnaan.

Pada 2007, Depkeu mulai menerapkan sanksi pada daerah-daerah yang kurang disiplin dalam mengelola APBD, seperti keterlambatan penetapan APBD ataupun lambatnya serta gagalnya daerah mengelola DAK. Perbaikan dalam pencairan dana bagi hasil sumber daya alam, terutama migas, juga merupakan capaian penting Depkeu dalam menyukseskan desentralisasi fiskal, sekaligus mencegah kekecewaan para daerah penghasil.

Setelah Prof Boediono dipilih menjadi Gubernur Bank Indonesia, tugas perempuan yang dinobatkan sebagai salah satu perempuan yang paling berpengaruh di dalam negeri dan di luar negeri bertambah sebagai pelaksana jabatan menteri koordinator perekonomian. Gabungan pekerjaan dan tanggung jawab sebagai menko dan menkeu terasa sulit dibayangkan, tetapi sampai hari ini Dr Sri Mulyani menunjukkan bahwa hal tersebut bukanlah mustahil.

Yang lebih berat lagi, jabatan tersebut diemban ketika perekonomian global, termasuk Indonesia, dibayangbayangi krisis yang akan mengakibatkan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Prestasi perekonomian yang cukup baik pada 2008 tidak mungkin terulang, dan di pundak Dr Sri Mulyani-lah nasib perekonomian Indonesia 2009 bertumpu.

Menjadi tantangan bagi dia, bagaimana mempercepat penyerapan anggaran di pusat dan daerah sehingga dampak krisis bisa dikurangi dan bagaimana agar perekonomian Indonesia bebas dari segala macam pungutan dan halangan sehingga dalam kondisi yang sulit, investasi yang ada tidak hengkang dan masih mau melakukan ekspansi.

Paket stimulus fiskal serta keamanan sektor keuangan nasional akan menjadi tantangan lain bagi menko perekonomian sekaligus menkeu kabinet Indonesia bersatu yang akan selesai Oktober 2009.Apabila stimulus fiskal bisa direspons baik dan sektor keuangan tidak terganggu,Indonesia bisa selamat dari krisis meskipun pertumbuhan tidak setinggi 2008. Mudah-mudahan Ibu Ani masih mempunyai jurus-jurus tambahan untuk mencegah dampak terburuk dari krisis global sehingga mimpi buruk 1998 tidak terulang lagi. ()

Oleh: Bambang PS Brodjonegoro,

Guru Besar dan Dekan FEUI

http://news.id.msn.com/business/okezone/article.aspx?cp-documentid=2034503

^^ tokoh wanita panutan g ;)


buat yg kurang suka ma singapur, atau pengen ngeliat singapur susah, caranya gampang kok:
1. stop berlibur dan belanja di singapur
2. stop berobat ke singapur

gua yakin seandainya semua rakyat indonesia melakukan itu, mereka pasti bakal susah.. :D

BETULLLLLL.....hahahahahaha :lol: satu Indonesia kencing rame2 di Singapore kek nya tenggelam tuh pulau :tongue2:

Indonesia Should Embrace Urbanization, Says World Bank


The World Bank said the Indonesian government should not be concerned about the growing trend toward urbanization in the country because it indicates “progress in development.”

The suggestion was made as the bank released its annual World Development Report on Thursday. The report, “Reshaping Economic Geography,” was discussed during a seminar organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.

“The most important thing is how to manage urbanization,” said Yukon Huang, who wrote the East Asia edition of the report.

The bank said governments should strengthen agglomerations, or large, continuous urban and suburban areas, by supporting inclusive urbanization and migration in certain economic centers.

The report said urbanization can lead to higher population density, which is key to integrating nations. Regional integration within a country facilitates greater access to global markets, the report said.

The report’s conclusions, however, contradict the views of the Indonesian government — and those of the Jakarta administration in particular — on the need to balance economic opportunities across the country to reduce increasing income disparities between people living in major population centers and those living in rural areas.

The Jakarta administration, for example, launches frequent operations to return unskilled migrants back to their home villages, although these efforts often prove to be unsuccessful.

About 60 percent of Indonesia’s population is concentrated on the island of Java, while the remainder is scattered across the rest of the archipelago. Java also accounts for 52 percent of the country’s total GDP.

Indermit S. Gill, the report’s director and the World Bank’s chief economist for Europe and Central Asia, explained that economic growth does not automatically occur everywhere.

“Markets favor some places over others. Governments should facilitate the geographic concentration of production, while at the same time facilitating basic needs such as [key infrastructure] and security,” he said.

The report said successful development requires the spatial concentration of production and economic integration.

Policy makers should aim to build population density, reduce distances and eliminate divisions, it said.

“The consequence will be uneven growth, but, with appropriate policies, more inclusive development will come, sooner rather than later,” the report said.

The report, which drew on the development path followed in North America, Western Europe and East Asia, acknowledged that the geographical setting of a country such as Indonesia — which has more than 17,000 islands — could act as an obstacle to economic agglomeration.

I totally agree with this article. The problem in most (not all) parts of rural Indonesia is that there isn't enough land for farmers to actually claw their way out of poverty. On Java, for example, we all know that the average land holding for farmers is tiny--.58 hectares--and is less than 2 hectares for areas outside Java. Imagine, though, if the urban population was at 70%. Farmers would have more land and therefore higher incomes, and many of the people who are now living on less than a dollar a day in rural areas could have higher paying jobs in the towns and cities. That would require better urban planning and more growth in manufacturing and other industries, but I still believe urbanization is a very good thing for Indonesia.

By the way, Indonesia's population is currently 49% urbanized.

Indonesia has the potential to become a black swan


Nassim Nicholas Taleb published a book recently called The Black Swan. This New York Times bestseller by the prominent literary essayist explores the emergence of highly improbable world events. He calls them black swans.

Astonishing success of Google, Sept. 11 and the recent stock market crashes are all black swans. Consider another, or one that has the potential to be one: Indonesia.

Bell-curve predictability would brush this aside.

The violence of 1998 and the turmoil of the post-Soeharto era has been etched indelibly into the memory of the world. For many, the odds of Indonesia's blood-checkered past recurring are large.

But the reality is the country has changed. Today, Indonesia enjoys relative peace and economic development, and is increasingly being compared to middle-income developing nations like Brazil, India and Mexico.

A number of indicators point to a greater sense of normalcy.

Indonesia remains structurally stable, the administration is moderate, and the pro-reform leadership is likely to remain in place after the 2009 elections.

Fears of disintegrasi Indonesia is a thing of the past. There is no evidence today that active centrifugal forces can bring about the country's 'Balkanization'.

And Indonesia is the only country in the region that has bucked the trend of a democracy in trouble. That is combined with what are regarded as a free press and impartial courts, crucial to any vigorous democracy.

Politics cannot but help carry a weight of significance. But economics remain the principal driver in the grand scheme.

As the world heads into a deep economic winter, Indonesia appears to be riding out the storm. Certainly the slump in the stock market and the pronounced weakness of the rupiah shows Indonesia is not immune.

But for so long an underrated economy, it seems far more resilient than other ASEAN countries. One reason is that it relies less on exports, which contribute just 12 percent to the country's GDP.

Private consumption is strong and government spending looks set to rise.

Much of what has been accomplished thus far has been a result of economic management.

The Yudhoyono administration has maintained tight fiscal discipline and focused on debt reduction. As a result, Indonesia has a healthy balance sheet with US$52 billion in reserves and a government debt of less than 35 percent of GDP, compared to 77 percent of the GDP in 2001. This is the lowest among ASEAN countries.

Jakarta's policy is grounded on the assumption that declining commodity prices and slowing global demand will eventually ease inflationary pressure. If inflation is controlled, the central bank will have greater maneuverability in reducing interest rates.

So far, Bank Indonesia has kept interest rates on hold in an effort to shore up the rupiah despite lower inflation last month. With the BI rate lowered to 8.75 percent on Wednesday, Indonesia offers a healthy 8.50 percentage-point premium over the U.S. Fed funds rate, which should help maintain confidence.

Jakarta has also cut gasoline prices by 8 percent to ease inflationary pressures and reduce the drag on growth.

The Indonesian economy has grown at an average of about six percent on a quarterly basis since the end of 2006. The government is targeting growth of 6.4 percent for 2008.

Some believe the growth rate will be lower — between 4 to 5.5 percent -- but still significantly higher than any other ASEAN country.

The crystal ball is not all rosy, though. We still need to clean house in several areas.

Archaic labor laws are reducing Indonesia's attraction as a center for labor-intensive manufacturing.

Judicial corruption means businesses cannot take the sanctity of contracts for granted. Indonesia's anti-corruption watchdog has been making headlines with a spate of high-profile investigations.

The fact remains, however, that Indonesia is one of the world's most corrupt nations. It ranks 143rd on Transparency International's global corruption index, level with Russia, Gambia and Togo.

The benefits of macroeconomic growth have not trickled down. Despite Jakarta's economic vitality and the booming growth in other big cities, much of Indonesia remains poor.

Some 150 million Indonesians do not have access to piped water. The country has also one of the region's worst figures for maternal and infant mortality.

All these reinforce perceptions that Indonesia is still stuck in a rut. But we need to give the country its due worth by taking a long-term view.

Consider the fact that Indonesia has a $420 billion economy. If it grows at 6-7 percent in real terms, and 13-14 percent in nominal terms, then it is looking at an economy worth $5-6 trillion in 20 years' time — the size of the Japanese economy.

There is enough wealth creation here to ensure there will be some degree of refinement in the political process.

Increasingly, the wealthy in the country are taking ownership of public services. This is more good than bad. It fosters better policy making and implementation with respect to wealth distribution.

This can only lead to better education, healthcare, and infrastructure. All this will multiply economic growth.

Certainly fighting rampant corruption and revising labor laws will help spur growth. Infrastructure development is also key.

One of the reasons for China's growth over the past 20 years has been massive spending in infrastructure. And it is not over. Over the next two years, China will spend more than $260 billion on highways, bridges, ports and airports.

Land acquisition reform, a large dedicated budget and single-minded government focus could set the stage for an unprecedented surge in infrastructure development in Indonesia. Incentivizing the private sector to participate in this revolution could attract additional capital and allow for better management.

Net foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia was $1.1 billion in 2007, which stands at just 0.3 percent of GDP. This compares to $121.4 billion in China, or 3.7 percent of GDP. In India, net FDI was 1.4 percent of GDP, Thailand 3.2 percent, Singapore 7.3 percent, and Vietnam 9.3 percent.

Singapore transformed itself from a swampy Third World seaport into a First World financial dynamo in 30 years. In 1965, the odds were stacked against it.

With the passage of time, Indonesia might also well surprise the world with the impossible: to be a black swan.

I totally agree with this article. The problem in most (not all) parts of rural Indonesia is that there isn't enough land for farmers to actually claw their way out of poverty. On Java, for example, we all know that the average land holding for farmers is tiny--.58 hectares--and is less than 2 hectares for areas outside Java. Imagine, though, if the urban population was at 70%. Farmers would have more land and therefore higher incomes, and many of the people who are now living on less than a dollar a day in rural areas could have higher paying jobs in the towns and cities. That would require better urban planning and more growth in manufacturing and other industries, but I still believe urbanization is a very good thing for Indonesia.

By the way, Indonesia's population is currently 49% urbanized.

Agree.. tapi kita harus embrace also multipolar urbanization to prevent overpopulation in cities and, at the same time, distributed centers of economic growth. :)

^^

Indonesia entered the current turmoil in a strong position
JAKARTA, Jan 13

It was a terrible year for emerging markets in 2008.

To put things into perspective, the outflows from emerging markets exceeded US$50 billion (RM175 billion) as the year wound down, compared with total inflows of US$95 billion from 2003-07, according to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research.

These markets have paid a heavy price as foreign investors liquidate positions, especially in markets considered more risky than home markets.

But consider Indonesia — below the radar screen of most global investors despite a sterling performance in 2006 and 2007. With real GDP of US$840 billion and a population of 240 million, Indonesia quietly accounts for two-fifths of ASEAN's population and one-third of its GDP.

The nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio has been declining, its foreign exchange reserves are at a robust US$48 billion, and its stock market was one of the three best performers in the world in 2006 and 2007. (2008, however, was brutal, as the fortunes on our recent list of Indonesia’s 40 Richest took a beating.)

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati is seen as the face of the new Indonesia, a reformer who has tried to bring transparency to the financial sector and rid the country of graft and waste, no small order after decades of corruption.

The government passed a new investment law in March 2007 and has initiated tax and customs reforms, introduced Treasury bills and improved capital market supervision. Randy Salim, spokesman for the World Bank in Jakarta, states that “given sound macroeconomic management in recent years, Indonesia entered the current phase of market turmoil in a strong position.”

One sign of strength: Conglomerate Lippo Group recently announced that it was going to invest US$500 million in distressed real estate in Europe and the US.

The key perception of Indonesia is that it is heavily dependent on commodity prices. But the Indonesian economy seems to be holding up rather well, despite the commodity meltdown, with GDP up by 6.1 per cent in the year through the third quarter. What about next year?

Finance Minister Mulyani recently predicted that economic growth could cool to about five per cent (even that number may be optimistic).

As a significant exporter of commodities, it will be squeezed by falling prices, but keep in mind that Indonesia’s total exports are equivalent to only 30 per cent of its GDP, while for Malaysia the figure is 95 per cent.

Looking ahead, Indonesia seems nicely placed to benefit from the inevitable rise in commodity prices as the cycle turns.

And don’t forget politics. Freedom House, an American think tank, now rates Indonesia as the only completely free country in Southeast Asia, only 11 years after Suharto’s fall.

It has developed a free press and minimised military involvement in politics, and in 2009 some 175 million voters across 17,000 tropical islands will choose a president, a vice

president and 560 parliamentarians. (One thing to watch in the long term: A new Indonesian law favouring local mining companies is scaring away big foreign miners.)

Attracting private investors to build out badly needed infrastructure for the world’s fourth-most-populous nation is another top priority. Less than 53 per cent of Indonesians have access to electricity; 27 per cent have access to piped water; 43 per cent of the workforce is engaged in agriculture.

The nation requires US$140 billion of infrastructure investment over the next ten years. The government can finance only 40 per cent of this amount; the balance of funds must come from the private sector.

According to Edward Gustely, senior adviser to the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, one example of progress on this front is the Indonesia Clean Technology Fund, the first private equity fund of its kind with the participation of the Indonesian government that aims to mobilise private capital for investing in such things as alternative energy, water treatment and agritechnology.

Investors seem to be looking ahead as Jakarta’s market is surging off a bottom. Tying into the infrastructure theme is the well-positioned Telekomunikasi Indonesia (US$0.65, TLKM: Jakarta) — a company that has explosive growth potential, as only 40 per cent of Indonesians have mobile phones.

The company has bounced off its low and still offers good value, a strong balance sheet and sports a nice six per cent dividend.

An excellent play on clean energy and Indonesia’s proven natural reserves is PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (US$0.20, PGAS: Jakarta), which has roots going back to 1859. Gas Negara’s net profits for the first nine months of 2008 were up 56 per cent compared with the same period in 2007.

Those investors looking for an even broader play should look at the Indonesian Fund (IF) managed by Credit Suisse Asset Management. While down 60 per cent so far in 2008, IF has also come to life recently but still trades at a 12 per cent discount to its net asset value.

Indonesia is on the move, get on board. — Forbes Asia

2009, Indonesia Ekspor Beras ke Jepang

Jakarta, TRIBUN - Sebanyak lima negara akan menjadi negara tujuan ekspor utama beras Indonesia pada tahun 2009. Negara-negara adalah Filipina, Malaysia, Timor Leste, Brunai Darussalam khusus untuk katagori beras medium. Sedangkan untuk Jepang khusus beras-beras berkualitas super.

Rencananya, jumlah beras medium yang akan diekspor mencapai 1 hingga 1,5 juta ton sepanjang 2009. Sedangkan khusus untuk beras kualitas super yang ditujukan ke Jepang mencapai 10.000 hingga 20.000 ton.

"Kemarin kita tandantangani kesepakatan antara 2 perusahaan internasional, satu lokal di Jawa Timur untuk mengurus izin kepada Depdag terkait rencana ekspor," kata Dirut Perum Bulog Mustafa Abubakar dalam acara konferensi pers, di Jakarta (8/1)

Mustafa mengakui Bulog bukan berada diposisi memutuskan terkait rencana ekspor beras, namun hanya sebatas mengusulkan. Selama ini keputusan ekspor beras berada di tangan Departemen Perdagangan dengan ketentuan surplus 3 juta ton.

"Kalau 63,5 juta ton gabah tercapai maka akan ada surplus, setelah itu ada peluang ekspor terutama untuk Filipina, Malaysia, Timor Leste dan Brunai," imbuh Mustafa.

Ia menjelaskan khusus untuk beras kualitas super yang akan diekspor ke Jepang kualitasnya mencapai 5%-10% pecahan, seperti beras Pandan Wangi, Cianjur, Padi Mulia, Aromatik dan lain-lain. "Ini yang akan kita coba rilis untuk ekspor awal," jelasnya. Sedangkan untuk katagori medium, masih harus menunggu kecukupan untuk melayani kebutuhan dalam negeri yang diperkirakan bisa dilakukan pada Juni hingga September 2009.

"Keempat negara ini sudah ada pesanan baik secara informal dan formal pada kita, konjen mereka masing-masing sudah meminta untuk diutamakan," ucapnya. Khusus untuk Jepang, Mustafa mengatakan dari pihak importir Jepang sudah melakukan penjajakan dengan pihaknya termasuk memantau kualitas beras yang diinginkan oleh konsumen Jepang.

"Bulog bukan penentu ekspor beras tapi mengusulkan saja, kita masih menungu dari BPS, lalu Deptan dan tim teknis interdep, yang kemudian diajukan ke depdag, kalau sudah memberi izin baru bisa dilakukan ekspor," paparnya.

Ia memprediksi untuk priode ekspor ke Jepang akan berlangsung antara bulan Februari sampai Maret 2009. "Harga beras di Jepang itu mencapai US$ 1 sampai US$ 2 per kilonya," imbuhnya. (dtc)

Price cuts: Yudhoyono's generous gift ahead of polls
Mustaqim Adamrah , The Jakarta Post

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono decided Monday to lower fuel and electricity prices before Indonesians go to the polls this year.

Yudhoyono also issued a policy to immediately force public transportation operators to slash fares and allow the public to directly enjoy the impact of a string of fuel price cuts.

Prices for subsidized Premium gasoline and diesel for private motorists will be cut by 10 percent to Rp 4,500 per liter, and by 6.25 percent to Rp 4,500 per liter, respectively, while subsidized kerosene prices remain unchanged at Rp 2,500 per liter. The new fuel price scheme, the third so far since December last year, will take effect on Jan. 15.

Yudhoyono said the policy was aimed at bolstering household consumption to keep the economy robust amid a deepening global economic crisis, “[The policy] will help sustain the people’s purchasing power and prevent mass layoffs. These are the utmost outcomes the government wants to achieve,” Yudhoyono said after a Cabinet meeting.

Yudhoyono’s fuel price cut, the first ever taken by an Indonesian president, is seen by analysts
as a short-term populist election gambit. Indonesians will pick legislators in April 9 and a president in July.

Acting Coordinating Minister for the Economy Sri Mulyani Indrawati promised consumers there would not be a fuel shortage ahead of the price cut as a result of losses that gas station owners would bear because of the price discrepancies.

“[Gas stations] will begin purchasing fuel at the new prices [on Monday night], but people will enjoy the new price effectively on Jan. 15,” she said.

Mulyani was upbeat the cut would bring the January inflation rate to less than 0.53 percent.

Bank Indonesia forecast infl ation to be between 5 and 7 percent this year, easing from 11.1 percent last year.

The government is struggling to ease infl ation, which has become a key requirement for the central bank to slash its benchmark interest rate to help companies gain access to low-cost borrowing for expansion and to hire workers.

Fueled primarily by domestic consumption, Southeast Asia’s largest economy expects to grow by between 4.5 and 5.5 percent this year -- the highest in the region.

Indonesia’s limited dependence on exports is likely to see it go almost unscathed through the global economic slump.

On Monday, Yudhoyono also lowered electricity rates for companies with power consumption of between 201 kilowatts and 30 megawatts, and those of over 31 megawatt.

Mulyani said industrial energy costs were expected to decline by an average of 8 percent, while energyintensive industries were expected to save 12 to 15 percent on energy costs. The rate cut will affect January billing.

For cuts in transportation fares, Yudhoyono said a policy issued by Transportation Minister Djusman Syafii Jamal would require intercity and interprovince transportation operators to reduce fares by 10 percent, effective Jan. 15.

BUSINESS: Investment growth to hit double-digits


Despite the global economic downturn, the estimated realized direct investment in Indonesia may still reach double-digits this year spurred by incentives and the stimulus packages designed by the government, the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) says.

“Investment might grow by double digits, at between 10 and 11 percent with (the planned) incentives, stimulus packages and simplification,” BKPM chairman M. Lutfi said in a discussion at the Regional Representatives Council (DPD) Monday.

Lutfi said investment last year grew by about 15.5 percent from 2007. Indonesia secured US$17 billion in investment last year, the highest in Southeast Asia, leaving Singapore behind with $12 billion, he said.

The government is providing about Rp 12.5 trillion of stimulus in the form of waived value added tax to help industries coping with the global economic slowdown. The amount will be increased by Rp 38 trillion later in the year, taken from undisbursed funds transferred on from the 2008 state budget.

Analysts have said exports and investment will be the hardest hit by the global economic downturn.

Lutfi said these stimulus measures would provide some leeway for businesses to make investments. The stimulus will only be given to businesses engaging in infrastructure, the energy sector and manufacturing.

He said in addition to waived value added tax, a good investment climate would also help support investment in the country. “However, what’s most important is the government’s commitment to make the country (an economic hub) as a half-processed goods producer.”

However private sector business leaders said BPKM was too optimistic in expecting investment to grow by between 10 percent and 11 percent amid the adverse global economic conditions.

“It seems it is unrealistic to expect private investment (to reach) such a high growth target.

Even government’s investment might not be able to reach the target considering slow spending, and foreign investment will reduce due to the (global financial) crisis,” said Bambang Soesatyo, head of the fiscal and monetary committee at the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin).

He said the stimulus would only raise the production capacity of domestic industries slightly, but was still far too inadequate to create new investment.

“There are many obstacles for local investors. Interest rates are still high and liquidity is still dried up,” he added.

Bambang also said it would be a difficult task for the government to raise people’s purchasing power amid the global economic slowdown.

He added that it will be useless if businesses raise their production capacity but people are gradually losing their purchasing power.

Indonesia’s economy is about 70 percent driven by domestic consumption, according to the government. Investment only accounts for about 15 percent of economic growth.

The government is still expecting growth of between 4.5 and 5.5 percent this year, down from the estimated 6.1 percent in 2008.

‘As Good As It Gets’

Indonesia is managing the global recession better than most, thanks to its tough finance minister.

By Solenn Honorine and George Wehrfritz | NEWSWEEK

Last month a financial tidal wave washed over Indonesia, but not the one kicked up by the global credit crisis. Money flooded into government coffers from individuals and corporations eager to avail themselves of Jakarta's "sunset policy" on tax delinquency, which forgave past evasions in exchange for good behavior going forward. The exact size of the surge isn't yet known, but economists estimate that tax receipts were up more than 50 percent for the year. "We saw quite a big jump" in revenue in December from "taxpayers who never existed [on the tax rolls] or want to correct mistakes made in the past," says the plan's creator, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. Indonesians, she adds, are honoring their tax obligations "in a much more accurate way."

The influx marks a major triumph for Indonesia's current government and, in particular, for the woman who put Jakarta's financial house in order. Over the past four years, Mulyani has helped dismantle the financial architecture of the crony capitalism built by strongman Suharto before his 32-year reign ended in 1998. She has pressed hard to slash debt, both public and private; pushed through a rollback of budget-busting fuel subsidies; and overseen sweeping reforms of the customs and tax authorities—positioning Indonesia to post the world's best (or at least the least bad) emerging-market growth story in 2009. Unnoticed until recently, Jakarta's conservatism is now the envy of the developing world, and Mulyani is being hailed as a model regulator. "She could be the finance minister anywhere in the world," says James Castle, founder of the consultancy CastleAsia. "She's that good."

Largely to Mulyani's credit, the country's balance sheet is now among the most conservative in the world; government debt now sits at just 30 percent of GDP, down from more than 100 percent a decade ago, while Indonesia Inc. is far less leveraged than its peers elsewhere in Asia. Despite that relative austerity, growth is being driven both by commodities—Indonesia's traditional mainstay—and by strong domestic consumption from a population approaching 240 million. And neither the commodity bust (which has also driven down the price of the imported energy on which Indonesia depends) nor tighter global credit looks set to hobble a country that, from the household to the boardroom and cabinet chambers, is all but debt-free.

Indeed, Indonesia is one of just three major emerging economies forecast to grow faster than 4 percent in 2009. The other two—China and India—have decelerated more rapidly in recent months and face tougher policy challenges. Mulyani says Indonesia could expand by as much as 5.5 percent this year, which is barely slower than the 6 percent it clocked in 2008, and perhaps enough to pip one of its two Asian counterparts in this year's growth race. Not bad, considering that the country's economy collapsed in 1998, shrinking 18 percent in a single year. Wolfgang Fengler, a senior economist at the World Bank, says Jakarta's macroeconomic management is now "as good as it gets."

Indonesia owes its turnaround to an ensemble cast. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has provided the political stability and pro-globalization vision that underpin today's successes. Boediono (who goes by one name) was a deft coordinating minister for economics until he handed the brief to Mulyani last May to head Indonesia's central bank, and Trade Minister Mari Pangestu deserves plaudits for kick-starting Indonesia's export economy. Yet Mulyani stands out for her toughness. She says her staff had to "swallow a lot of very bitter reality" during her first six months on the job. After landing there, for example, she confronted senior staff: "How can you send your daughter or your son to study abroad when you earn only this kind of salary? Where did you get the money?" To which she added: "You have to admit: we are all committing this crime." Her staffers still work evenings and weekends to meet her expectations, and she's been known to tangle with colleagues. Last year she lobbied intensively to ram through a deeply unpopular reduction in fuel subsidies that President Yudhoyono initially opposed. "She got her way because she is capable of playing politics," says Anton Gunawan, chief economist at Bank Danamon in Jakarta.

Yet by raising pay for bureaucrats, and not demonizing those who previously took payoffs to make ends meet, she has raised standards and steeled a reputation as an incorruptible reformer. Her message to her staff is simple and positive: "I only have one goal: I want the Indonesian people to trust us, this department, because this country will go nowhere if the people don't start to trust their own government." Though nobody would yet describe Indonesia as a model of transparency, the changes in its taxation and customs administrations have been profound, and in turn have enhanced Indonesia's growth potential to the point that "the world needs to update the way it thinks about the country," wrote Nicholas Cashmore, CLSA investment bank's Indonesia analyst, in mid-2008, declaring: "Southeast Asia's largest economy is in great shape." And thanks to Mulyani, Indonesia is garnering more respect by the day.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/178817

^^

Berbeda dengan berita-berita yang bagus-bagus di atas ... kita-kita yang kerja di perbankan melihat bahwa sesungguhnya fundamental ekonomi Indonesia nggak sebagus yang diberitakan tersebut ...

Lihat aja sampai sekarang "Rating" Indonesia dari S&P, Moody ataupun Fitch masih 3 - 4 tingkat dibawah rating 'Investment Grade" dan masih jauh dari Rating yang kita dapat sebelum terjadi krisis finansial 1997/1998.

Implikasi dari rating kita yang non-investment grade tersebut adalah sangat mahalnya ongkos yang harus ditanggung perbankan internasional jika ingin menyalurkan kreditnya kepada perusahaan-perusahaan di Indonesia dalam bentuk kredit Valas karena pihak perbankan harus menyisihkan cadangan penghapusan yang cukup besar karena resiko kredit yang masih amat tinggi.

Indonesia: Provinces Asked to Prepare Special Economic Zones


TEMPO Interactive, Jakarta:The government has asked provinces which have proposed the establishment of a Special Economic Zone in their regions to immediately begin identifying the location. The preparations include the location and the applicable supporting regulations. “This will move alongside discourses on the relevant law,” said Bambang Susantono, Coordinating Deputy Minister for the Economy in charge of infrastructure and area development, yesterday. The decision on the Special Economic Zone now awaits the result of the House of Representatives (DPR) debates on the issue. The Bill was submitted to the DPR last May and is scheduled to be enacted in 2009.

According to Bambang, 18 provinces have applied to set up Special Economic Zones. They are North Sumatra, Riau, South Sumatra, Banten, West Java, Central Java, East Java, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, West Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Papua, Bengkulu, Jakarta, Maluku, and Bangka Belitung.

pindah tret baru ya, udah 700++

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?p=30743640#post30743640