As oil price going through the roof and shaking our pocketbook, it may be interesting to discuss and share different thoughts and understanding on current and future aspect of it. There were some interesting discussion on aviation thread but this may be better space to capture all information.

Tan I have seen the report you have indicated. Its interesting how farmers fortune has been turned around. Just few years back farm after far in mid west and in northern part were going bankrupt. If bio fuel demand survives expect to see farmland become a good investment.

Just read the news BAPEX has discovered a new gas field in Sahbajpur, Bhola. Initial estimate is about 500 to 600 bcf gas available from the new field. There is already a gas field diccovered earlier in Sahbajpur named Sahbajpur-1 with 465 bcf gas. Combined capacity of these two fields estimated to be more than 1 tcf. Read the detail report below.

http://www.dailynayadiganta.com/fullnews.asp?News_ID=90878&sec=1

Tan I have seen the report you have indicated. Its interesting how farmers fortune has been turned around. Just few years back farm after far in mid west and in northern part were going bankrupt. If bio fuel demand survives expect to see farmland become a good investment.

I have wondered whether Bangladesh can tap into this market, after all our soil is able to grow quite a wide range of crops. The problem is despite our large output we cannot yet grow enough to feed ourselves. So if we export biofuel we would still have to import food grains at high prices...so I am not sure if there would be a net benefit. Although, it would be great to see our farmers find some cash crop to fill the vacuum left by jute.

^^ Biofuel from Sugarcane seems like it will have a future unlike from Corn. I read some report where it stated that for every unit of energy put into producing corn ethanol only 1.3 unit of net energy comes out of it, while its 3.8 for Sugarcane. I wonder if BD can get into large scale sugarcane biofuel production, after all its a non staple food crop. Beside we dont have to export it, as there is a growing demand for Petroleum products at home.

I have wondered whether Bangladesh can tap into this market, after all our soil is able to grow quite a wide range of crops. The problem is despite our large output we cannot yet grow enough to feed ourselves. So if we export biofuel we would still have to import food grains at high prices...so I am not sure if there would be a net benefit. Although, it would be great to see our farmers find some cash crop to fill the vacuum left by jute.

Our major problem is we have limited land. If we only could reclaim coastal land by cross damming we could venture into such cash crops and bio fuel.

It is still very unclear what source of energy will emerge dominant after oil is gone. If you look back at the early days of the automobile circa 1900, a variety of engine types including electric were manufactured by different companies before the basic gasoline driven combustion engine we are familiar with, came out on top. I expect that there may be a similar tussle among competing energy sources. However as there is still enough oil to last the better part of this century at least, I doubt that this question will be answered in our lifetimes.

With regard to land reclamation...that would be great of course, but very expensive and logistically very challenging. At this stage of our development...the only way we could realize this would be through some massive foreign loan or grant.

I am no expert this area by any means but I lean towards nuclear power as the best long term solution to our energy needs. If we generated enough power this way we could power electric vehicles without depending on foreign import.

^^ Just saw a report on NTV where a NGO is helping farmers convert diesel powered irrigation pumps into CNG powered pumps. They said it lowered their operating cost by a third and reduced foreign oil dependence. :okay:

Hi everybody… this is my first post in this forum. I must admit the future of energy is not really my interest but because of my profession (I am a banker by the way), I have to spend some time over these things these days. When I think about what could be the substitute for oil, especially for country like Bangladesh, I really don’t see much ray of hope. Let me share my thoughts… my apology for the length…

Future of bio-fuel or renewable energy (like windmill or solar cell) doesn’t look too bright in anywhere in the world because of some basic shortcomings. The biggest downside of bio-fuel is consumption of cultivable land which will essentially put a lot of pressure on food commodity production. For a small country like Bangladesh with an ever-increasing population, this is a non-feasible idea altogether. Renewable energy for limited use is okay, but then very few countries in the world have succeeded in popularizing this at the mass level. I have limited knowledge on this, but most of the experts believe the weather of the Bangladesh is not ideal for solar cell or windmill (or rather around the year usage of them).

Similarly, one has to simply drop the idea of more hydro-based energy due to lack of high land, though this might just well be the right choice for many Asian, South American and African countries. Bangladesh should actually try to tie up with Myanmar to invest directly to build few hydro-electric projects in adjacent Rakhain and Pegu provinces, which have plenty of barren high lands and rivers. Of course this has to be done with Bangladeshi money as joint venture in Myanmar is not an option due to its isolation from international community and also with its extremely poor economy. However, this is one area, we should explore hard without loosing any more time.

Nuclear energy is one of the major sources of energy in the developed world. But, again it hardly sounds feasible for Bangladesh. Firstly, Bangladesh doesn’t have a proven source of uranium of its own, making it extremely difficult to procure uranium at very high price with lot of restrictions. Secondly, western countries are very much apprehensive of transferring the technology because of the sensitivity attached with it. Thirdly, disposal of radioactive waste will be a great problem for us in absence of much barren land like desert or isolated islands. Finally, the setup cost and maintenance of a nuclear power plant is going to be a real challenge for us.

Lastly of course there are those God gifted Natural Gas and Coal. But unfortunately, we have completely failed to utilize these resources properly till now. We are not even sure about our reserve and allowed foreign companies to screw up with these resources right, left and center. Government should immediately come with a plan to properly utilize these resources to ensure optimum benefit for the future.

I was just thinking aloud and trying to share my thoughts. Let us have more view on this from everyone… Cheers.

^^ Just saw a report on NTV where a NGO is helping farmers convert diesel powered irrigation pumps into CNG powered pumps. They said it lowered their operating cost by a third and reduced foreign oil dependence. :okay:

that is a brilliant move, not only the cng is locally sourced but also cleaner for the environment, diesels are really dirty

How much oil it'd take to buy the US

At the recent price of $140 a barrel, it turns out to be a mere 400 billion barrels, or just about the combined reserves of Iran and Saudi Arabia.

By Scott Burns
Most of us view the world through dollar glasses. It's perfectly reasonable. Dollars, after all, are the currency we use in daily life. And those lenses, until recently, were distinctly rosy.

When we asked, "How much is that in dollars?," we usually liked the answer.

But it may be time to ask another question: "How much is that in barrels of oil?"

Trust me, others are doing exactly that.

That's when the world starts to look very different. It also looks more than a little scary to the U.S. Today, the net worth of the entire country is equivalent to a mere 400 billion barrels of oil. That's a smidgeon less than the proven reserves of two Middle Eastern countries: Saudi Arabia (264 billion barrels) and Iran (139 billion barrels).

At more than 40 times its 1970 price, oil has outstripped the value created by a full working generation of Americans in a period of dramatic technological change and innovation. During the same time, the value of American business shares, as measured by the S&P 500 Index ($INX), has risen only about 15 times above its 1970 level.

I find that hard to believe. After all, in 1970 the Internet was only an arcane toy for academics. Computer memory was desperately expensive. Intel had just been formed and was introducing the first dynamic random access memory chip. Bill Gates had yet to enter (or drop out of) Harvard and was five years from founding Microsoft. Steve Jobs was years away from creating the Apple II and was decades from launching the iPhone. AT&T was still a single national company, owning all of the regional Bell companies.

No one was yet thinking the U.S. post office was a quaint institution, soon to be treasured for its many buildings that could be converted to trendy condos. Phone calls were expensive. Sears, Roebuck was an important retail stock, not a real-estate play by a hedge fund manager. All surgery was invasive. And it was still believed that stomach ulcers were caused by stress. Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin had not yet been conceived, let alone applied to Stanford, where they would create Google.

All of that dynamism and creativity pale against the price of oil. Looking as far back as 1970, America has never been worth less in barrels of oil.

I learned this by measuring the net worth of all U.S. households and nonprofit organizations in barrels of oil. Every three months the Federal Reserve estimates the value of our collective tangible assets, financial assets and liabilities to arrive at our net worth. It's the whole enchilada -- all our cars, our houses, our durable "stuff," bank deposits, stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Everything. Then it subtracts all our mortgages, consumer credit and other debt to arrive at our net worth.

At the end of March, for instance, our collective net worth as a nation was $56 trillion, the second straight quarter it had dropped. Divide $56 trillion by the recent $140-a-barrel price of oil and you get 400 billion barrels of oil as the value of America, a fraction of our national value in 1998, 1995 or even 1990.

Either oil is too expensive or America is too cheap.


The value of the U.S., in barrels:

Year Household net worth* Price of oil Barrels to buy America
1970
$3.4 trillion
$3.18
1.1 trillion

1975
$5.1 trillion
$7.67
670.3 billion

1980
$9.5 trillion
$21.59
438.6 billion

1985
$14.2 trillion
$24.09
589.7 billion

1990
$20.3 trillion
$20.03
1.1 trillion

1995
$27.7 trillion
$14.62
1.9 trillion

1998
$37.4 trillion
$11.18
3.3 trillion

2004
$48.1 trillion
$42.00
1.1 trillion

2007
$57.7 trillion
$120.00
481 billion

2008
$56 trillion**
$140.00
400 billion



*Includes nonprofits. **Through March. Sources: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/HowMuchOilItdTakeToBuyTheUS.aspx