By Tom Fletcher - BC Local News

Published: October 26, 2008 11:00 AM
Updated: October 26, 2008 11:10 AM

A new analysis of migration patterns inside B.C. upsets the notion that small-town folks are increasingly flocking to big cities.

While the main destination for new arrivals from other countries or provinces is Metro Vancouver, a five-year study of census data by BC Stats shows a trend in the opposite direction for those moving around within the province.

The study looks at population flows between B.C.'s four Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs): Vancouver, Victoria, Abbotsford and Kelowna, as well as to and from the area outside CMAs.

It found that from 2001 to 2006, Vancouver saw a net outflow of 25,560 B.C. residents. All other regions saw a net gain, and communities outside the big urban centres posted the largest increase, more than 17,000 people.

"The largest of B.C.'s CMAs, Vancouver represents more than half of the provincial population," the B.C. Stats report says. "Also, as the third largest city in Canada, Vancouver is a primary destination for immigrants and inter-provincial migrants to B.C. However, individuals often move to Vancouver first, only to continue on to other parts of the province after a short stay."

Figures for 2006, the latest available, show Kelowna was the only major urban centre with a net gain, 835 people from elsewhere in B.C. Areas outside CMAs gained 7,175 people, almost the same as the net loss from Vancouver to other areas of the province in 2006.

The study confirms the common view that young people aged 15-24 showed a net migration away from rural and small-town B.C., but found gains in all other age groups. Areas outside major centres were also the biggest beneficiaries of B.C. residents aged 45 and up who moved out of Metro Vancouver.

The Kelowna region qualified as a CMA for the first time in 2006, its 9.8 per cent population increase the fastest of B.C. urban centres during the five-year period. Kelowna also had the oldest population, with a median age of 43.4 years. B.C.'s other favourite retirement centre, Victoria, had a median age of 43.1 due in part to in-migration of university and college students.

The Abbotsford CMA was the youngest, with a median age of 36.8 compared to the provincial median of 40.8. This reflects the attraction of the area for young families looking to stay close to Vancouver.

I would think that a strong motivator for young families moving out of the cities is housing affordability and elbow room for the kids. Housing, especially large square footages for a big family, has become prohibitively expensive in the city.

I would hope that it is not for other reasons, such as employer migration out of Vancouver, crime, etc.

Keep an eye on it

Well we do know that those retirees are moving down to Mexico. It's affordable warm and a new life for them...

This is good news in many ways. Vancouver doesn't have a lot of land to spare. As BC grows, it would be preferable to see smaller towns and cities absorb the majority of the growth.

In 50 years, I'd rather see a big Vancouver and 5 or 6 medium sized cities of 500,000+ rather than two thirds of the province crammed into a hyper expensive Vancouver. BC is 4 times the size of Britain. Spread the population around a bit!

We have seen to some degree the same pattern in the GTA.

The alarmists out there in the media tried to paint it as being the tipping point of a mass exodus a few years ago (something that hasn't happened yet).

I would imagine there are two large factors at work in both cases. Housing costs and commute times would be what I would label as being the big movers.

I personally would stay in Vancouver because I think it a safer investment to maintain my equity there than say in a smaller center. Given the way energy costs are going to trend upwards it would be smarter to stay in the city where more opportunities for employment will be in the general vicinity in addition to the transit options that are there too (and bound to expand more rapidly).

Toronto has had nothing to fear from this trend, neither does Vancouver.

i think a lot of new immigrants start out in the cities and realize the smaller towns aren't so bad

^^ exactly. Affordability probably isn't the biggest thing. Vancouver has stiff competition lifestyle-wise from all over the province.

$500,000 in kelowna can get you a beautiful house with over 3000 sqft with a large yard in town.

in the vancouver area, half a million gets you a concrete shoe box.

and kelowna is a really nice place. hell, even i am tempted to move.

$500,000 in kelowna can get you a beautiful house with over 3000 sqft with a large yard in town.

in the vancouver area, half a million gets you a concrete shoe box.

and kelowna is a really nice place. hell, even i am tempted to move.

That has been my point, and why, rumors of the "death of the suburbs" and, really, the death of exurbia, have been greatly exaggerated, as per paraphrasing of a famous quote.

Chilliwack is growing like wildfire. The scenery is beautiful, just 70 minutes from downtown, housing is still affordable, tons of jobs, surrounded by parks, and even the downtown is coming along. It is far nicer, in nearly everyway, than Abbotsford in my opinion. Of course one of the big problems with the Abb/Chill area is crime rates near at the top of the country.

It's probably the constant smell of cow shit that makes the crime so high. Hell I drive thru there and smell the air and it makes me want to steal a car, break and enter, or shoot someone. =)

I have to admit, Kelowna is where Im heading.

I always love kelowna, its so pretty and warm in the summer.

Chilliwack is growing like wildfire. The scenery is beautiful, just 70 minutes from downtown, housing is still affordable, tons of jobs, surrounded by parks, and even the downtown is coming along. It is far nicer, in nearly everyway, than Abbotsford in my opinion. Of course one of the big problems with the Abb/Chill area is crime rates near at the top of the country.


if they will build that proposed commuter train to the fraser valley.. chilliwack would be an awesome place to live.

if they will build that proposed commuter train to the fraser valley.. chilliwack would be an awesome place to live.
Make it a bullet train and I'm sold. :D

If I lived in BC I would buck the trend and move onto South Granville, personally. Victoria would be kind of cute to live in if a person is retired and leads a quiet lifestyle. You could ease on down to the Bengal Room at the Empress Hotel for a smart cocktail every day around 3! :cheers2:

ha ha..i think bullet train would be too much.

but a simple commuter train just like what they have in sydney, australia is more doable. the tracks are already there, all they need to do is to put commuter trains on it.

Doesn't Vancouver already have West Coast Express? Why not just extend it and make the hours longer (have a few trains go the other way during the rush.. ...)

I really think they should develop a WCE commuter rail line between Vancouver, Surrey, and then split to White Rock/Delta and Abbotsford. .... Have bus feed into it - then Surrey and the SOF could stop harping about their NEED for a metro system and allow Vancouver to go ahead and build out SkyTrain where it is MUCH MORE needed. ...

Doesn't Vancouver already have West Coast Express? Why not just extend it and make the hours longer (have a few trains go the other way during the rush.. ...)

I really think they should develop a WCE commuter rail line between Vancouver, Surrey, and then split to White Rock/Delta and Abbotsford. .... Have bus feed into it - then Surrey and the SOF could stop harping about their NEED for a metro system and allow Vancouver to go ahead and build out SkyTrain where it is MUCH MORE needed. ...
I don't think CP or CN would be having any of that.

I don't think CP or CN would be having any of that.

money talks.. sometimes:)