t-bang!
July 20th, 2009, 12:42 PM
The Dinokeng Scenarios
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Between August 2008 and February 2009 the Dinokeng Scenario Team met in Dinokeng, a beautiful river catchment area in the north east of Gauteng. They engaged in robust debate about the future of South Africa in seeking to answer the question 'what will South Africa look like in 2020?'.
The Scenario Team included Dr Mamphela Ramphele, Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane, Minister of Health Aaron Motsoaledi, writer Antjie Krog, former City Press editor Mathatha Tsedu, Old Mutual Director Bob Head, Head of the Helen Suzman Foundation Raenette Taljaard and human rights activist Graca Machel.
3 Possible scenarios:
In the first scenario, Walk Apart, South Africa continues on the same path it is on today.
Our pressing problems - unemployment, poverty, safety and security, and poor public health and education delivery - worsen.
Our social fabric unravels, as civil society disengages and trust in public institutions diminishes. Forces outside the state, some of them criminal, fill the gap created by the failure of the state to deliver. Protests and unrest escalate and provoke an authoritarian response from the state.
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In the second scenario, Walk Behind, the state both manages and leads the process of addressing our challenges.
Citizens either support strong state interventions or are acquiescent in the face of a more powerful state. If citizens are not acquiescent, the state may become authoritarian. The risk in this scenario is that the state over-reaches itself by intervening too strongly in the economy. It is eventually forced to borrow from multi-lateral financial institutions. This undermines the country's autonomy and its ability to decide its own spending priorities. Citizens are disgruntled, the state cracks down, and our democracy is comprised.
In the third scenario, Walk Together, our challenges are addressed through active citizen engagement, a capable state, and strong leadership across all sectors. Good governance, competent delivery, and active citizen involvement become the key to fixing social problems that will become deadly if not addressed.
The key message of this scenario is that it is going to take all of us to address our challenges. If citizens engage, take initiative and hold government to account, if a more effective and capable government is built and if leaders in all sectors rise above narrow self-interests, then we may just set the country on the right path again.
Step by step, side by side
*
In truth, the Dinokeng Scenarios are not the kind of predictions that one might get from even the best psychic. They are simply possibilities regarding the opportunities and risks we face as a nation.
The Dinokeng team sought to answer a simple question: can South Africa build a successful future? Their answer: yes. But the path to a prosperous South Africa will not be easy. It is uneven, there is robust contestation over many issues and it requires strong leadership from all sectors, especially from citizens.
Perhaps the hardest part of this scenario is that it requires us to cross those borders, real and imagined, that continue to keep South Africans apart.
*
Between August 2008 and February 2009 the Dinokeng Scenario Team met in Dinokeng, a beautiful river catchment area in the north east of Gauteng. They engaged in robust debate about the future of South Africa in seeking to answer the question 'what will South Africa look like in 2020?'.
The Scenario Team included Dr Mamphela Ramphele, Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane, Minister of Health Aaron Motsoaledi, writer Antjie Krog, former City Press editor Mathatha Tsedu, Old Mutual Director Bob Head, Head of the Helen Suzman Foundation Raenette Taljaard and human rights activist Graca Machel.
3 Possible scenarios:
In the first scenario, Walk Apart, South Africa continues on the same path it is on today.
Our pressing problems - unemployment, poverty, safety and security, and poor public health and education delivery - worsen.
Our social fabric unravels, as civil society disengages and trust in public institutions diminishes. Forces outside the state, some of them criminal, fill the gap created by the failure of the state to deliver. Protests and unrest escalate and provoke an authoritarian response from the state.
*
In the second scenario, Walk Behind, the state both manages and leads the process of addressing our challenges.
Citizens either support strong state interventions or are acquiescent in the face of a more powerful state. If citizens are not acquiescent, the state may become authoritarian. The risk in this scenario is that the state over-reaches itself by intervening too strongly in the economy. It is eventually forced to borrow from multi-lateral financial institutions. This undermines the country's autonomy and its ability to decide its own spending priorities. Citizens are disgruntled, the state cracks down, and our democracy is comprised.
In the third scenario, Walk Together, our challenges are addressed through active citizen engagement, a capable state, and strong leadership across all sectors. Good governance, competent delivery, and active citizen involvement become the key to fixing social problems that will become deadly if not addressed.
The key message of this scenario is that it is going to take all of us to address our challenges. If citizens engage, take initiative and hold government to account, if a more effective and capable government is built and if leaders in all sectors rise above narrow self-interests, then we may just set the country on the right path again.
Step by step, side by side
*
In truth, the Dinokeng Scenarios are not the kind of predictions that one might get from even the best psychic. They are simply possibilities regarding the opportunities and risks we face as a nation.
The Dinokeng team sought to answer a simple question: can South Africa build a successful future? Their answer: yes. But the path to a prosperous South Africa will not be easy. It is uneven, there is robust contestation over many issues and it requires strong leadership from all sectors, especially from citizens.
Perhaps the hardest part of this scenario is that it requires us to cross those borders, real and imagined, that continue to keep South Africans apart.