what do u think is going to happen if uganda starts producing its oil, it has been a well to do country without oil but after how ill it look like,
kampala is projected to be the largest city in East Africa by 2020.

ugandan na mutiima!

You are so obsessed....Uganda is not going ot overtake Kenya, at least not in my lifetime.

and Kampala wont be the largest city in 10 years. The way Nairoby is growing, you are not near catching them. Loose all that illusionist dreams.

what do u think is going to happen if uganda starts producing its oil, it has been a well to do country without oil but after how ill it look like,
kampala is projected to be the largest city in East Africa by 2020.

ugandan na mutiima!

This is a juz a joke! It will take 100 yrs if Kenya's economy becomes grounded for UG to overtake Kenya. Nairobi can only be ranked with J'burg, but not Kampala..it will take a thausand yrs for Kampala to be bigger than Nairobi. BUT ANYWAY, GO UGANDA GO KAMPALA. HIT THE RIGHT LANE! And only if Oil does not become a curse like many other African countries!!!!

Why do you love comparing UG and Kenya so much? My wishes are we all prosper not who is or will be bigger than the other.

This is a juz a joke! It will take 100 yrs if Kenya's economy becomes grounded for UG to overtake Kenya. Nairobi can only be ranked with J'burg, but not Kampala..it will take a thausand yrs for Kampala to be bigger than Nairobi. BUT ANYWAY, GO UGANDA GO KAMPALA. HIT THE RIGHT LANE! And only if Oil does not become a curse like many other African countries!!!!

100 yrs? Trust me, the difference isn't that big.

100 yrs? Trust me, the difference isn't that big.

Yea KE is right, 100 years is too huge. Nobleskills don't be arrogant.:)

However, I predict that the whole of EA, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Ethiopia will experience some phenomenal economic growth in the coming years IF there is political stability.

Kenya is well positioned to benefit from the economic prosperity of its neighborhoods it being the gateway of East and Central Africa.

This means economic prosperity of Kenya's neighbours will also uplift the economy of Kenya as they use the Kenyan ports, road and rails both MSA and the upcoming one at Lamu increasing revenue to Kenya. Also more disposable income in neighbouring countries will mean bigger market for kenyan products as people are able to afford.

Kenyan prosperity will also be a boon to economies of neighboring counties as Kenyan firms invest and diversify to neighboring countries increasing employment opportunities in this countries.

Its like we are all interconnected in some form of symbiotic relationship.

Its like we are all interconnected in some form of symbiotic relationship.

Exactly. If Uganda goes down, Kenya will feel it and if Kenya goes down, Uganda will also feel it.

Yea KE is right, 100 years is too huge. Nobleskills don't be arrogant.:)

However, I predict that the whole of EA, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Ethiopia will experience some phenomenal economic growth in the coming years IF there is political stability.

Kenya is well positioned to benefit from the economic prosperity of its neighborhoods it being the gateway of East and Central Africa.

This means economic prosperity of Kenya's neighbours will also uplift the economy of Kenya as they use the Kenyan ports, road and rails both MSA and the upcoming one at Lamu increasing revenue to Kenya. Also more disposable income in neighbouring countries will mean bigger market for kenyan products as people are able to afford.

Kenyan prosperity will also be a boon to economies of neighboring counties as Kenyan firms invest and diversify to neighboring countries increasing employment opportunities in this countries.

Its like we are all interconnected in some form of symbiotic relationship.
^^ameen:cheers:

Thats true kenguy
Kenya and uganda are symbiotic countries
Any politioca instability in either would be felt by both
Which is why we pray that they both prosper
Instability in Uganda would affect the export activity in Kenya
Instability in Kenya would affect Uganda imports e.g oil ( for now anyway)

Exactly. If Uganda goes down, Kenya will feel it and if Kenya goes down, Uganda will also feel it.

If Kenya goes down, Uganda will go down as well. bUt if Uganda goes down, they will go down alone.

hrrrm, excuse me but comparing Uganda to Kenya doesn´t make sense to me, at the same time you could ask if l Vienna will overtake London or Paris? No way.

you guys know discussion, i like yo art of arguement , uganda has entered the league of billion barrell, read;
www.newvision.co.ug
There is a resource called oil and gas, these resources r the most profitable resources on world earth, they have led to development and boom of economies, they have made weak countries to become strong countries, who knew Nigeria without oil before 1950, now who can compare Nigeria with any African country, its projected the the richest native african nation the largest companies natively, with the biggest number of wealth native men in nigeria.Nigerian r very strong men but after discovery of oil, who knew Angola without Oil but now Angola attracts the biggest number of Investors in Africa because of oil.
Neva compare and contrast before internally looking at something, i compared kampala to Nairobi because of what am seeing is going on.
any one who has been to Uganda should have noticed how ugandA IS CHANGING, u go to nakasero another sub CBD and see what going on, the government is planning to even move the city from south to north thats the nakasero, people allow Uganda oil discovery has brought a lot of investors in the country where most of them r chinese and indians.
Many indian of Ugandan descent in Diaspora rushed back home to Uganda to purchase land because of Oil.

compare uganda and Kenya know that
uganda has discovered oil and that Kenya is the largest economy in East and Central Africa.

If Kenya goes down, Uganda will go down as well. bUt if Uganda goes down, they will go down alone.

Butembo your arguements r very kiddish, vienna in europe has no natural resource to get it compared to paris and london, yet kampala has a natural resources which is very viable and profitable to compare it with Nairobi^^:ohno:

Thats true kenguy
Kenya and uganda are symbiotic countries
Any politioca instability in either would be felt by both
Which is why we pray that they both prosper
Instability in Uganda would affect the export activity in Kenya
Instability in Kenya would affect Uganda imports e.g oil ( for now anyway)

And even when Uganda starts producing oil, it will still have to export it through Kenya. Not to mention the probability of Kenya becoming the main export market for Uganda's oil.

If Kenya goes down, Uganda will go down as well. bUt if Uganda goes down, they will go down alone.

I really dont think so. When Uganda had problems in the 70's and 80's the impact was felt more acutely in Kenya than in any other country. And when Kenya had problems recently, Uganda was the one that felt the impact compared to any other country.

yes
i mean even if uganda stops inporting oil
it still imports so many other things that have to go through kenya e'g cars and anything made abroad
so kenya should not be too scared uganda still depends on it for alot
it should only be scared if uganda grew a coastline ha ha hah:)

I think Ethiopia will overtake both of them bwahahahaha ;)

I really dont think so. When Uganda had problems in the 70's and 80's the impact was felt more acutely in Kenya than in any other country. And when Kenya had problems recently, Uganda was the one that felt the impact compared to any other country.

That's because Uganda uses Mombasa port for allmost 100% of it imports and exports. Yes , Kenya will feel more pain than anyone esle. Uganda doesn't even use TZ ports. How is TZ supposed to feel the pain?

But Uganda not using mombassa doesn't mean , Kenya will fail, will it?

That's because Uganda uses Mombasa port for allmost 100% of it imports and exports. Yes , Kenya will feel more pain than anyone esle. Uganda doesn't even use TZ ports. How is TZ supposed to feel the pain?

But Uganda not using mombassa doesn't mean , Kenya will fail, will it?

The economies of these two countries have become really interwoven over the last couple of years that a problem in one will lead to problems in the other. Its not just the port, it would affect areas ranging from manufacturing to education across the region.

The economies of these two countries have become really interwoven over the last couple of years that a problem in one will lead to problems in the other. Its not just the port, it would affect areas ranging from manufacturing to education across the region.

kenguy i like yo arguements, uganda depends on kenya and kenya depends on uganda.Did u know that the thing which has led to kenya's development is having Uganda as its hinterland coz every thing in ugandan shops and supermarkets r made by Kenyan, so if Uganda starts making these products which r similarand familiar, Kenyan products wont have much market,

Kenya has the richest hinterland in the whole of Africa and that called Uganda, many may say what about Nigeria, South Africa or Egypt, These countries have no neigbours who dont have costs, all Nigerian neigbours have coastline and those which dont have r very poor like the Chads, Nigers and others and South Africa's neighbours all have coastlines and the ones with no coastline like Zibwabwe r problematic

AM A UGANDAN WITH LOVE
:cheers:

uganda depends on kenya
so does kenya to some degree
but if uganda failed
kenya wouldn't necessarily fail
and vice cersa though it would take alot of adjustment on uganda's side to import through dar es salam

there not that much diffrence and anythings possible

hrrrm, excuse me but comparing Uganda to Kenya doesn´t make sense to me, at the same time you could ask if l Vienna will overtake London or Paris? No way.

Well I guess many Londoners or Parisians would gladly move to Vienna ... less criminality , less pollution and higher quality of life .

Well if kampala can be compared to Vienna guys i tell you be happy of what you are and stay as you are !!!

in my poinion kenya is the strongest but uganda is catching up so dont rule it ou so quickly they are in abou the same leage but kenya is the strongest. but now uganda has oil it will start to cathc up and fix the country from past problems with kenya and tanzania never had.

While Kenya and Uganda argues over the title, Ethiopia will silently pass Kenya within 4-5 years.:D

While Kenya and Uganda argues over the title, Ethiopia will silently pass Kenya within 4-5 years.:D

Exactly.

Exactly.

Ditto! :banana:

While Kenya and Uganda argues over the title, Ethiopia will silently pass Kenya within 4-5 years.:D

yeah i think i will have to see that one. 4 to 5 yrs? i dont think so. its not impossible but in that time frame it is improbable. 4-5 yrs would require the kenyan economy at the very least to grind to a halt, and the ethiopian economy to grow even faster and maintain that. the chances of those two things happening at the same time are minimal.

good luck to ethiopians, a strong ethiopian economy would be great for east africa.

Uganda overtaking Kenya?? Oh dear, this forum is really a joke...

I've never read a forum titled "Illinois to overtake Florida!" or "Denmark catching up to Finland!". The fact is the larger Kenya's economy grows the more Uganda will benefit and vice versa. These pissing contests are counter productive. It's the region, stupid! If Angola's economy doubles, countries as far away as Ethiopia will see some benefit as in the eyes of the outside world it's all AFRICA. Just as when something goes down in Texas, we all talk about Americans, when something good happens in one African country, it happens to all of us. Forigners are nervous to invest in Africa, not Kenya are Ghana. I am all for regional integration as the solutions to our collective problems lie in cooperation rather than competition. Let different African countries specialise in different industries. Instead of every African country trying to be silicon valley, how about pooling our resources to create one. Develop industry clusters that can compete and allow these clusters to attract the graduates from across the region.

Cooperation is a good thing for sure, but economic competition does seem to create motivation so it's not really a bad thing to me.

I don't see Uganda taking over Kenya as the "East African hub" anytime soon, but if they are trying to do so with future economic projects facilitating this goal, what's the problem? At the same time, Kenya growing and trying to retain the current rank by doing the same thing is good too.

Healthy competition is a good thing at times.

The way things are going, we will be talking about a joint East African economy in 4-5 years time.

I've never read a forum titled "Illinois to overtake Florida!" or "Denmark catching up to Finland!". The fact is the larger Kenya's economy grows the more Uganda will benefit and vice versa.

I agree. There's something called the positive pull factor when it comes to economies. The best example of this would be the Far east and South East asia. Japan came up and before we knew it the rest followed suit. If Kenya prospers, chances are the economies of its neighbours will also prosper. Dont forget that for the first time in history, Ethiopia and Kenya will also have direct links by road and rail and that means if Ethiopia prospers, Kenya too will benefit from increased trade and vice versa.

Bottom line, I think the region is moving forward and all countries have a part toplay in this.

I agree. There's something called the positive pull factor when it comes to economies. The best example of this would be the Far east and South East asia. Japan came up and before we knew it the rest followed suit. If Kenya prospers, chances are the economies of its neighbours will also prosper. Dont forget that for the first time in history, Ethiopia and Kenya will also have direct links by road and rail and that means if Ethiopia prospers, Kenya too will benefit from increased trade and vice versa.

Bottom line, I think the region is moving forward and all countries have a part toplay in this.

^^exactly:cheers:

Some countries have no choice but to blend in a Union.( 100% Land locked, also profit from very low Tax, get investment from giants members).( one way to survive).

But as Xusein put; Healthy Competition is a very good thing for economies . it brings innovations, creativity, and just force one another to do better than the other.

SADC for exemple; No one is rushing for integration. even small poor land locked like Malawi, not rushing for the Union.
There are major things that must be established at local level , than at regional level.(i.e Agriculture, Infrastructures[roads, highways, electricity] , Education, basic health care , Minimum Corruption). Just look at the amounts of money that SADC is spending on these things.

Don't think you will go in the Union expecting anyone to pay for your basic obligations, no one have time to fix your mess. because coming in with a lot of mess, no one will intoxicate the rest.

Just look at the EU integration.( every country must show up with a certain minimum of requirements or well established basic services.

So for Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, have no choices but to join the Giants( that have what they need, Kenya, TZ's Ports, Market and Investments among others).

Not a bad thing, good thing because the market gets bigger for the Ginats( Kenya and TZ) while the small fish get all kinds of investments excess to low taxes, among others.

Uganda overtaking Kenya?? Oh dear, this forum is really a joke...

Did u attend school ?its a question not an insult, did u study Economics and Commerce in School, did u study geography, if u did the question is in your hands and if u dint attend school try some where else.

This is not an argument thread, its a proposition thread, if u have been in Uganda then know that its possible for Uganda to take over Kenya.

Compare Saudi Arabia to United Arab Emirates, Saudi was the strongest Economy in the middle East and infact the biggest in size and population but when U.A.E got oil, now its the Strongest in Middle East yet its the smallest in size.
Mathias Ofidale u know wat am say..........

You are assuming too many things:

a. that Uganda is the only country that has oil. If Uganda has it, no doubt Kenya has some too, it's just not discovered yet but it will probably will be soon enough.

b. that the oil curse will bypass Uganda and that oil will definitely boost the economy long term. How do you know this? There's a good chance that the money ends up in Swiss accounts rather than average Joe's village.

c. that the amount of oil to be produced will be so significant that Kenya cannot compete as a non-oil economy, even though it's been solidly growing.


Too many assumptions, too little facts IMO.

About Ethiopia overtaking Kenya within a few years, it's actually based on growth forecasts (which can also be wrong of course).
Obviously Kenya will stay ahead in terms of GDP/capita for years to come, but Ethiopia will overtake soon in terms of overall size of the economy.
For instance the Economist predicts that 2009 GDP for Ethiopia will be $30 billion while Kenya will hit $35 billion. In 2010 though, Ethiopia is expected to get to $35 billion while Kenya is expected to be at $38 billion. IOW, if the above predictions are true, then 2011 or 2012 will see Ethiopia pass Kenya as the largest economy in East Africa.

About Ethiopia overtaking Kenya within a few years, it's actually based on growth forecasts (which can also be wrong of course).
Obviously Kenya will stay ahead in terms of GDP/capita for years to come, but Ethiopia will overtake soon in terms of overall size of the economy.
For instance the Economist predicts that 2009 GDP for Ethiopia will be $30 billion while Kenya will hit $35 billion. In 2010 though, Ethiopia is expected to get to $35 billion while Kenya is expected to be at $38 billion. IOW, if the above predictions are true, then 2011 or 2012 will see Ethiopia pass Kenya as the largest economy in East Africa.
This was exactly my point, but we have to stop popping 5-6 baby's/family or this growth won't help much.

This was exactly my point, but we have to stop popping 5-6 baby's/family or this growth won't help much.

that goes for kenya too. the african population is growing too fast too quick. some population control is needed.

This was exactly my point, but we have to stop popping 5-6 baby's/family or this growth won't help much.

4 kids is the minimuM in Congo . LOL.


However; what's your suggestion?

Ban polygamy,
Held every man responsible for the kids born,

Higher education for women and Man.

that goes for kenya too. the african population is growing too fast too quick. some population control is needed.

^^
Actually, Kenyas birth rates have gone down. Though I will be OK when most families have a max. of 2 or 3 kids.

^^i have none at this moments but i am warming now before i start manufacturing spree and only rest when i achieved one complete football team:cheers::cheers:

that goes for kenya too. the african population is growing too fast too quick. some population control is needed.

^^lets see the bigger picture what can we do if we control our population and they is negative economic growth:lol: can we start culling those who are alive:nuts: IMAO this issue is not easy as the way we think, economic boom with low population growth is counter productive either, getting the right mix and balance will be the best always:cheers:

Contrary to popular belief having a low population growth is actually detrimental to the long term growth of an economy.

Populations from markets and labour as well as ideas.

The push for low populations is actually a Malthusian idea based on Marxist thinking of control.

I think the right number for Africa is about 4-6 children as we are very underpopulated just see the vast amount of land that is underutilized.

This was exactly my point, but we have to stop popping 5-6 baby's/family or this growth won't help much.

Couldn´t agree more...tell that to the Nigerian fellowmen who still think their country is under-populated, 160 million isn´t enough!:nuts: LOL