SkyscraperCity Forum banner

Detroit 20 years from now?

60K views 203 replies 33 participants last post by  SammyS 
#1 ·
Hello from Denmark ;-)

Richard Florida predict Detroit to be potiential attractive city for new creative activity:

Question how could it influence the image and development?

Creative class hero and Atlantic Senior Editor Richard Florida debuted the second of five videos produced for the Detroit Rising series yesterday. The first feature for The Atlantic Cities website set the tone with Florida saying, "It is not like there was any big government plan to remake Detroit. In fact, most government plans hurt the city over time. It's really the efforts of creative people." With the release of this week's installment, we see Florida get a little deeper into his creative class theories. Episode 2 is titled Detroit's Creative Potential and has Florida respond to the question: How to get people to move into Detroit?

I don't think we have to convince more young people to move to Detroit. I think it's already happening and the people who want to be here are here and finding it . . . I think what Detroit offers is for young people or interesting people or engaged people — artists, innovators, musicians, designers, city-builders, place-makers — it offers something for them, and it doesn't have to advertise. It'll just happen.
So basically Florida is taking a very Zen-like it's-already-happening-so-let-it-happen approach, which sounds good to us. Past official attempts to dole out "Cool City" designations does not a cool city make. We also get to watch Florida list all of Detroit's music legends, which isn't all that exciting, but we'd be lying if we said it didn't warm our Detroit music hearts a little when he throws Liverpool, Leeds, and Manchester under the bus while doing so. Still, nothing groundbreaking here but we'll tune in next week to see what's next.
 
#3 ·
TVN, I think people aren't replying because you didn't post a link where we can read the full article. You're basically just posting a disembodied quote without context and asking us to weigh in. I'd like to get the overall gist of the piece before I make any comments.

Can you please post a link to the full article? Thanks!
 
#6 ·
It is impossible that Detroit as we now know it can even exist 20 years from now. The city is bankrupt.... morally and fiscally. The people that are in office are the most ignorant idiots that exist on the entire planet.

The only way it can even exist 20 years from now is if the city dissolves into smaller municipalities that can be self-governed.
 
#7 ·
What will that help? While a few select areas would certainly benefit, the vast majority of the city would be no better than it is now, and arguably worse. Highland Park is a perfect example of how a smaller "community" wouldn't necessarily be better off.

If anything, the best option would be a regional government that consists of all the communities that are currently within Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb Counties.
 
#8 ·
I agree. Ever since my short residency in Detroit years ago I felt it needed a regional authority with the power to supersede actions taken by local governments. It might be modeled on the Metropolitan Council in Minnesota or the Metro in Oregon. Like those Met Councils it could manage the regional transportation system, water and sewer systems, parks and trails, and aviation services.
 
#11 ·
You can't comprehend how vacant and abandoned this city is until you've seen Detroit on Google Earth. Then go down to Street View, and the few houses you see via satellite on some blocks are shells in many cases too.

I doubt there will be any great renewal outside of downtown, but a modest urban renaissance is taking place around the center city with condos. But it's hard to assume anything incredible for Detroit the next 20 years. This with the backdrop of this country's ongoing fiscal and political ills as well -- and not to be remedied any time soon, either.
 
#12 ·
You can't comprehend how vacant and abandoned this city is until you've seen Detroit on Google Earth. Then go down to Street View, and the few houses you see via satellite on some blocks are shells in many cases too.
There are still plenty of viable neighborhoods, and the emptiest neighborhoods will be the easiest to redevelop. I think the Poletown area is perfectly ripe for some kind of radical urban revision strategy.
 
#14 ·
Detroit is evolving into a nice, clean city of 250,000. Unless there's a sea change towards free market principles by the city government, I doubt Detroit will ever recover much of what was lost.
How do you know that when will reach this number will be a clean city? You don't have any guarantee that it will be so. It hasn't been like that when the city peaked, not in the '80's or '90's etc. The people will still be the same, black majority, the poverty rate and the unemployment will be the same! Or do you think that the dissapeareance of antoher 500k. (untill will reach pop. 250k.) will solve the problem just like that?:eek:hno: Let's not deceive!
The same thing for Philly, St. Louis or Cleveland, even the population will decrease 50%, the problem still remains!
 
#15 ·
Large parts of Detroit are already clean and tidy with refurbished buildings and public spaces. The city will only be nicer as it shrinks to a smaller core of committed, functioning citizens. The poverty and unemployment were endemic to a large city that had lost many employers due to terrible policies and economic changes beyond anyone's control there. Eventually those people move on, which is exactly what's happening. Buffalo and Pittsburgh are perfect examples of this. As those cities shrink, the balance is shifting from a majority of residents who are struggling to a majority that is working, more affluent, and are part of the efforts to rebuild. For Detroit, the balance will shift too, probably at 250,000 or so.
 
#22 ·
Eventually those people move on, which is exactly what's happening. Buffalo and Pittsburgh are perfect examples of this. As those cities shrink, the balance is shifting from a majority of residents who are struggling to a majority that is working, more affluent, and are part of the efforts to rebuild. For Detroit, the balance will shift too, probably at 250,000 or so.
Actually, what we've seen in cities like Buffalo & Pittsburgh is a shift from a majority of working residents to majority of aging residents who've retired. If present trends continue, what's long been called the rust belt is evolving into the new retirement belt.
 
#16 ·
I don't know about 250,000. The 25% drop between 2000 and 2010 had a lot to do with the collapse of the housing bubble and the severe economic downturn experienced. While the city will absolutely see population loss for at least another few decades, unless we have another economic meltdown, the loss will be far less. By 2020, the city will likely have a population somewhere in the 600,000-615,000 range, with most of that loss occurring in the first half of the decade. By 2030, the population will likely be somewhere in the 540,000-560,000 range.

By 2030, the changes that have been occurring over the last couple of years (regional transit, downtown office/retail jobs, new residential, etc.) will have reached a critical mass and the number of new people moving into the Greater Downtown area may begin to offset the losses that will continue in the more impoverished neighborhoods. The best neighborhoods will also continue to stabilize.

While obviously, there's no way of knowing what will happen in the future, I highly doubt the city's population will fall below 500,000 people.
 
#18 ·
Pittsburgh is a perfect example that a city doesn't have to "regain" its lost population to be a success story. Detroit will probably never again see 1.8 million people in its 139 sq. mi. boundaries. Demographics are just too different today. In 1950, it wasn't uncommon to see a house with mom, dad, and eight kids. Today, it's almost unheard of. Detroit can easily be a healthy city even if it never again seems more than 750,000 people.
 
#19 ·
I think Detroit's population will bottom out at no lower than 500,000. In 20 years, If redevelopment, and gentrification, are successful, I could even see population growth.
 
#23 ·
With all due respect to Detroit, because I do want to see a thriving city in its place again, I think it's going to take longer than 20 years to see any meaningful redevelopment/gentrification/political restructuring to take hold and make a real difference there. It seems that the downtown area is on the rebound and great things are happening there, but the rest of the city is literally crumbling.

Even here in Minneapolis (which isn't a struggling rust belt city), it's still going to take decades, maybe even half a century (if ever) to clean up and redevelop our blighted areas. There's so much of it. I can't even fathom how Detroit is going to do it. It seems next to impossible.
 
#25 ·
Analysis: Stuck in reverse, Detroit edges closer to bankruptcy

January 28, 2013 6:22 PM ET

By Nick Carey, Bernie Woodall and Karen Pierog


DETROIT (Reuters) - At the Detroit Auto Show earlier this month, luxury was in the air. Pricey new Bentleys and Maseratis glittered - including a Maserati 2014 Quattroporte with a $132,000 price tag; U.S. Cabinet Secretaries and dignitaries rubbed shoulders; and many of the well-heeled attendees ponied up for a $300-a-ticket black-tie charity ball.

But in a city that is slowly dying, the glitz didn't extend much beyond the Cobo Center exhibition hall.

General Motors Co and Chrysler , which along with Ford Motor Co gave the Motor City its identity, survived near-death experiences after filing for bankruptcy during the financial crisis. Now, Detroit itself is edging closer to a similar precipice, only unlike the automakers, its chances of getting a federal bailout are almost nonexistent.

The story of Detroit's decline is decades old: Its tax revenue and population have shrunk and labor costs have remained out of whack. But the city's budget problems have deepened to such an extent that it could run out of cash in a matter of weeks or months and ultimately be forced into what would be the largest-ever Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy filing in the United States.

[...more in link:]


http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20130128&id=16049609
 
#27 ·
"Detroit is teetering on the verge of bankruptcy after the City Council has failed to make the necessary cuts to deal with having a smaller population," said Rick Jones, chairman of the Republican majority caucus in the state Senate.

Jones, who has indicated he does not favor a bankruptcy, said he would like to see an emergency manager installed to fix the city's problems. If that failed, there would be a case for finding a way to shrink the Detroit municipal area, he argued.

Detroit's population is now just over 700,000 - down 30 percent since 1990 - but the city still has to provide services to an area encompassing more land than San Francisco, Boston and the borough of Manhattan.
From the above article. Interesting you guys were dicussing these very points recently. What happens to those parts of the city that would be disincorporated--so to speak?
 
#34 ·
New Red Wings Arena, eh? Oh you're talking about all the surface parking lots. Yeah, I wasn't even referring to those. Has there been any updates on this PROPOSAL for the arena? But yeah, we could refer back to all the surface parking downtown Detroit, but I was talking about the land the surrounds much of downtown and Midtown. Vacant land, not parking lots. I will be more clear in the future.
You were pretty clear when you said "There are even big swaths of vacant land along Woodward between downtown and Midtown."

You were specifically talking about the land between I-75 and Mack Avenue, or the area that will soon become home to the new Red Wings arena.

The northern 2/3 of Midtown is already reaching critical mass. Rental vacancies are near 0%, even as more and more units come online. The number of abandoned buildings is quickly dwindling as they get converted into apartments. A number of new businesses are opening to cater to not only the growing number of residents, but the massive number of students and workers in the neighborhood. The arrival of the streetcar will only help to make the area more desirable (and easier to live). Once Midtown reaches critical mass, the development will spill over (as it already has begun to do) into the New Center and Woodbridge/North Corktown areas.
 
#33 ·
where is the new hockey arena going? I thought that the area that it was going in was downtown? or is the area by comerica not considered downtown detroit? Either way I dont think the new arena will make that huge of a difference.. the winga already play close to the area.. i think if they move from downtown across the e-way (if thats where you guys mean) then it will take away from downtown but infuence growth where it will be (though it would be better if the pistons move in with them ( hockey is what possibly 98 home games if the team gets home ice throughout the playoffs? given the wings history they are atleast gonna get ya a playoff bid every year) add in the pistons and you get another 82 for sure so thats 164 guarenteed events for the year so thats almost half a years worth events plus whatever concerts and other events they schedule. would be pretty cool and beneficial if they could connect the arena to the proposed M1 rail line if thats still in the making. Either way I hope the D can turn things around.. will give me some hope for Toledo
 
#35 ·
To Mudhen: There are not 82 home NBA basketball games every year. There are 41 HOME games. With the pre-season, you may get 2 or 3 more. If you make the playoffs, you'll get a few more. I don't know how many home hockey matches are in a regular NHL season. I thought the NBA and NHL played a similar number of games per year. 98 home games - even going far into the playoffs - seems like an awful lot. I would bet your total of 164 "guaranteed" home NBA and NHL events is pretty high. It may be closer to about 82 "guaranteed home NBA and NHL games.
 
#39 ·
Lol yea i messed that one up... 41 home games for hockey and bball... so that would go to 82 combined... plus, nhl playoffs is 4 rds of best of 7 so if they get home ice through out the playoffs they have a possibility of gaining 16 more games (again depends on home ice and if they go to game 7's) and nba playoff format is the same 4 rds best of 7 format.

so with that being said it is possible for the arena to get 114 games though its not very likely.... if you add in preseason games it could reach 100 games every year since the wings are pretty much guarenteed a playoff spot every season and usually go decently far int he playoffs
 
#44 ·
While both cities have long had good healthcare facilities, it does leaves one to would wonder though how Pittsburgh could possibly jump that far ahead of a somewhat similar but larger sized metro as Cleveland in Healthcare employment. When Cleveland has one of the successful medical corriders in the was of the University Circle District, a truly international medical magnet, attracting presidents, kings, queens, emirs, etc.
 
#55 ·
Is there anything definitive stating that the funds are available - and states where they are coming from - to build this new arena? I've been hearing rumors -- but hadn't heard that anything was really approved to be built. I'm not in Detroit though - so I don't hear all of the latest news.
 
#58 ·
A new arena is a virtual certainty. It's been in the cards for years. Ilitch Holdings (which owns the Red Wings and Tigers) hasn't announced any details other than that they are proposing a $650 million arena complex with residential, commercial and office. So far, financing hasn't been announced, though it's likely the only public money that will be spent on the arena is already earmarked. ($12.8 million annually from the DDA) The rest will likely come from Ilitch Holdings as well as other private investors. Even the actual location is speculation at the moment. The three most likely spots are behind the Fox Theater, near Motor City Casino, or just north of I-75 along Woodward. The first spot has long been considered the most likely location, but in the last few years Ilitch has been buying up all the land north of I-75, which makes that the new likely location. That's especially true now that the street car will soon begin construction along Woodward. It would make the most sense to have the new arena adjacent to a streetcar station.
 
#57 ·
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT42383005?data_tool=XGtable

If you scroll down to February 2010 you'll see that that was the month that Pittsburgh's unemployment rank peaked at 9.3% In that month, 1,095,227 people were employed. Now scroll down to the bottom and you should see December 2012 and an employed population of 1,176,177. If you do a bit of simple math, you see that the metropolitan area has seen an increase of 81,000 jobs.

If you want a breakdown of the various job sectors you can find it here:
http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.pa_pittsburgh_msa.htm
 
#60 ·
The links weren't working.

Adding 81k jobs within 2 years I can see easy in a Sunbelt boom metro, or even Detroit. But I'd really have to take a closer look as for how a long-shrinking city like Pitt could add the same so quickly. To add 81k jobs, Pitt would have had to add twice as many people. Where would they be coming from?
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top