New State Population Estimates

[CVG]

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/st...011/index.html
http://www.census.gov/newsroom/relea.../cb11-215.html

Estimated 15 month growth rate from 4/1/10 to 7/1/11, county and metro estimates have not been released yet. Texas leading the way as the only state in the country to have an estimated growth rate of over 2% for the 15 months, LA and OK picking up steam, but not sure what is happening in AL. Also the South has 4 of the top 5 states in overall numeric growth with TX, FL, GA, and NC joining CA in the top 5.


2 Texas: 25,674,681 ( 529,120 ) [ 2.1 ]
4 Florida: 19,057,542 ( 256,231 ) [ 1.4 ]
9 Georgia: 9,815,210 ( 127,550 ) [ 1.3 ]
10 North Carolina: 9,656,401 ( 120,926 ) [ 1.3 ]
12 Virginia: 8,096,604 ( 95,574 ) [ 1.2 ]
17 Tennessee: 6,403,353 ( 57,243 ) [ 0.9 ]
23 Alabama: 4,802,740 ( 23,005 ) [ 0.5 ]
24 South Carolina: 4,679,230 ( 53,866 ) [ 1.2 ]
25 Louisiana: 4,574,836 ( 41,464 ) [ 0.9 ]
26 Kentucky: 4,369,356 ( 29,994 ) [ 0.7 ]
28 Oklahoma: 3,791,508 ( 40,154 ) [ 1.1 ]
31 Mississippi: 2,978,512 ( 11,215 ) [ 0.4 ]
32 Arkansas: 2,937,979 ( 22,058 ) [ 0.8 ]
37 West Virginia: 1,855,364 ( 2,368 ) [ 0.1 ]

[ohpenn]

trends seem to point to NC leaping over GA this decade.

[GunnerJacket]

Originally Posted by Rail Claimore

GA and NC will both pass MI before the next census and may very well edge past OH as well.

As a staunch right-to-work supporter I both favor and expect this.

Originally Posted by ohpenn

trends seem to point to NC leaping over GA this decade.

Definitely. Access to DC, greater investment in transportation infrastructure and wider variety of metro areas will all contribute to this.

The amazing thing about GA is that it's achieved this with still only one prominent metro area. Most other metro areas are along the State line (Augusta, Columbus, Dalton, Savannah...), so when people talk about the 2 Georgia syndrome they're not kidding - Atlanta is a different animal.

This could be a great boon if they can further increase the city's density and preserve the rural character elsewhere, but I do wish Savannah and Macon could grow more, as well. State would be wise to pump goods production in Macon in hopefully secondary growth would remain in-state.

Perhaps this growth will have a strong upward tick on the ACC fan-base, as well! We need it given the smaller schools in the conference.

[RandomNameTag]

Originally Posted by GunnerJacket

As a staunch right-to-work supporter I both favor and expect this.

Definitely. Access to DC, greater investment in transportation infrastructure and wider variety of metro areas will all contribute to this.

The amazing thing about GA is that it's achieved this with still only one prominent metro area. Most other metro areas are along the State line (Augusta, Columbus, Dalton, Savannah...), so when people talk about the 2 Georgia syndrome they're not kidding - Atlanta is a different animal.

I do wish Savannah and Macon could grow more, as well. State would be wise to pump goods production in Macon in hopefully secondary growth would remain in-state.

Dalton is a metro area?

Oh, and Savannah is currently seeing plenty of growth. Effingham county has ballooned in population in recent years and Pooler (one of Savannah's nearby cities) has tripled its population over the last ten years, and let's not forget that dredging project that's being planned for the Savannah River.

[GunnerJacket]

Originally Posted by RandomNameTag

Dalton is a metro area?

It's part of metro Chattanooga and was trending very strongly upward until the textiles bust. The growth around Dalton was where people began to suspect metro Atlanta would reach metro Chattanooga w/in 20 years, but that's tailed off.

Originally Posted by WeimieLvr

Are you suggesting that NC is any better than GA? Because, let me tell you, it isn't...NC has fallen to 49th in per pupil spending (just above MS) due to the Republican-controlled legislature. This fact alone is a good indication that the state of NC is no more invested in public education than the state of GA.

Well spending alone isn't the telling factor, but I'm not saying NC is far beyond GA in this capacity. What they're seeing, though, at least around Raleigh and Charlotte, is a lot of support from the locals for investing in education overall - facilities, political clout, volunteerism, etc. Raleigh had a big campaign some years ago to get the whole metro area on-board with wanting to be known as an education-oriented community. Even if mostly superficial it was a good build off their research-triangle reputation, and I've found the people there as a whole are more attuned to the needs of the primary system than many I've met around Atlanta.

Or put another way, it feels more selective to school districts here, whereas there it's more broad based. It even lured my cousin and her family from New Jersey and they're thrilled with their local system.

But it's semantics, really. Neither is as bad as many portray, but both are lacking compared to the best examples.

[ohpenn]

Aside from local school districts, NC has been far more invested in its state public university system than GA.

[WeimieLvr]

Originally Posted by GunnerJacket

It's part of metro Chattanooga and was trending very strongly upward until the textiles bust. The growth around Dalton was where people began to suspect metro Atlanta would reach metro Chattanooga w/in 20 years, but that's tailed off.

Well spending alone isn't the telling factor, but I'm not saying NC is far beyond GA in this capacity. What they're seeing, though, at least around Raleigh and Charlotte, is a lot of support from the locals for investing in education overall - facilities, political clout, volunteerism, etc. Raleigh had a big campaign some years ago to get the whole metro area on-board with wanting to be known as an education-oriented community. Even if mostly superficial it was a good build off their research-triangle reputation, and I've found the people there as a whole are more attuned to the needs of the primary system than many I've met around Atlanta.

Or put another way, it feels more selective to school districts here, whereas there it's more broad based. It even lured my cousin and her family from New Jersey and they're thrilled with their local system.

But it's semantics, really. Neither is as bad as many portray, but both are lacking compared to the best examples.

I realize that spending isn't the only telling factor, but it's an important one. As a current resident of NC and a teacher in the public schools, I can tell you that it is just as selective to school districts in NC as it is in Georgia...and the people in NC are no more attuned to the needs of the system than they are in GA. I'm not sure where you are getting your information about NC schools, but the Wake and Mecklenburg systems are just as spotty when it comes to progress and investment as anywhere in Georgia - your cousin's personal experience notwithstanding.

No school system is as bad as some people portray it to be. I'm convinced that a motivated, semi-intelligent student can be successful in ANY school or school system...it's not about the overall test scores or the "failing" schools, but about each individual student and the parental support that he/she receives.

[gwiATLeman]

Originally Posted by GunnerJacket

It's part of metro Chattanooga and was trending very strongly upward until the textiles bust. The growth around Dalton was where people began to suspect metro Atlanta would reach metro Chattanooga w/in 20 years, but that's tailed off.

Actually Dalton is its own metro area consisting of Whitfield and Murray counties. Dalton,_GA_MSA

As far as growth is concerned, it is almost always driven by jobs, jobs, jobs. We could have debate about the impact that compulsory education has on job creation but I think it would be difficult to prove that link. Post-secondary education is actually a strength for Atlanta at least, given the concentration of institutions in the area.

[desertpunk]

Florida will surpass NY State soon.

New York 19,465,157

Florida 19,057,542

By some estimates, growth in the NYC area has slowed to a trickle while Upstate NY continues to shed people. South Florida's comeback and the steady improvement in the state's economy should see Florida pass NY by 2015.

[Rail Claimore]

GA and NC will both pass MI before the next census and may very well edge past OH as well.

[FLAWDA-FELLA]

Looks like Texas will remain the most populated state in the South for decades to come.

[desertpunk]

Originally Posted by FLAWDA-FELLA

Looks like Texas will remain the most populated state in the South for decades to come.

Texas will become the largest state in the US period. Probably around 2030.

[ohpenn]

As a staunch right-to-work supporter I both favor and expect this.

what does your preference have to do with a state's population?

Definitely. Access to DC, greater investment in transportation infrastructure and wider variety of metro areas will all contribute to this.

Greater investment in education and research too.

GA (where I live) does not invest and really have little vision. Atlanta has good things going for it, but it's all despite how backwards the state is.

[GunnerJacket]

Originally Posted by ohpenn

what does your preference have to do with a state's population?

The trends impact political and economic movement, as in the term "voting with your/their feet." Seeing states with policies more in line with those I support experience positive growth, then, suggests at least passive or indirect support of the same. So while these trends are surely due to several factors, it does indicate that on some level businesses are reacting to these policies. Thus, my appreciation for what the numbers are revealing.

Greater investment in education and research too.

GA (where I live) does not invest and really have little vision. Atlanta has good things going for it, but it's all despite how backwards the state is.

Indeed. As a near-lifelong resident of north GA it pains me that the public education system is continually stifled. There are plenty of great schools and school districts, but no where near the State directed push to improve instruction across the board like you have elsewhere.

And it's not even a matter of money as much as it is administrative and curricula related. The one Elem school advisory board I serve with has shwon me how many stupid reporting requirements and instructional requirements dictate what happens, meaning even above-average teachers can be handcuffed depending on the subject. Hopefully the early results from the charter schools will inspire further evolution on this front.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by desertpunk

Texas will become the largest state in the US period. Probably around 2030.

If current rates continue Texas will have about 35,727,961 people in 2030 while California will have around 45,575,120. It's gonna take a lot of work to have Texas pass California by 2030. I would predict 2060 or 2070, if not later. California's not New York. It is a Sunbelt State with high in-migration (exception being 2010) and a dynamic economy (culture, technology, arts, agriculture, industry, trade, services, financial firms, etc). It is not dependent on dying industries (manufacturing) and is actually a leader in future technology (telecommunications, video games, social media, software, high tech pharma, computers, etc.) California also has great weather so it isn't New York and it has a lot more room to expand (Fresno, Bakersfield, San Joaquin, Inland Empire, Sacramento are just starting to boom). Add in the brain drain of people coming from China and India to universities like Stanford, UCLA, Berkeley, Caltech and Occidental and you have a perfect recipe for continued growth. I also think the economic/budget fight will soon end making California's politics much less combative and much more focused. I say this because voters amended legislation to make it much easier to pass budgets. The California State Senate was also redistricted in favor of Democrats and could see them gaining the 2/3 votes needed to raise taxes (to the chagrin of my Conservative friends). I think Texas will do amazingly well too, but I don't think California will just lay down and wait for Texas to pass it. It will take a long time for that to happen

[desertpunk]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

If current rates continue Texas will have about 35,727,961 people in 2030 while California will have around 45,575,120. It's gonna take a lot of work to have Texas pass California by 2030. I would predict 2060 or 2070, if not later. California's not New York. It is a Sunbelt State with high in-migration (exception being 2010) and a dynamic economy (culture, technology, arts, agriculture, industry, trade, services, financial firms, etc). It is not dependent on dying industries (manufacturing) and is actually a leader in future technology (telecommunications, video games, social media, software, high tech pharma, computers, etc.) California also has great weather so it isn't New York and it has a lot more room to expand (Fresno, Bakersfield, San Joaquin, Inland Empire, Sacramento are just starting to boom). Add in the brain drain of people coming from China and India to universities like Stanford, UCLA, Berkeley, Caltech and Occidental and you have a perfect recipe for continued growth. I also think the economic/budget fight will soon end making California's politics much less combative and much more focused. I say this because voters amended legislation to make it much easier to pass budgets. The California State Senate was also redistricted in favor of Democrats and could see them gaining the 2/3 votes needed to raise taxes (to the chagrin of my Conservative friends). I think Texas will do amazingly well too, but I don't think California will just lay down and wait for Texas to pass it. It will take a long time for that to happen

California's growth is slowing down and you have to wonder where they will fit an additional 7-10 million people given the rampant NIMBYism and economic disincentives there. Regardless of who CA universities attract, the fact remains that those schools export more students out of state due to maxed out capacity there and no money for expansion. California chose public employee unions over education and other investment. Texas could easily have more than 40 million by 2030 while California may have just over that number by 2030. By 2040, Texas should have surpassed CA.

[diablo234]

Of course I would not count on that trend continuing though. Once Texas reaches a critical mass of people other factors such as the cost of real estate and cost of living in general, will climb as well and some of the things that attracted people to Texas in the first place (such as affordable real estate, quality of life issues, etc) will cease to exist at least around the major cities. At this point Texas is where California was twenty-thirty years ago, growth wise.

[Rail Claimore]

Originally Posted by ohpenn

trends seem to point to NC leaping over GA this decade.

The two big reasons NC has grown faster than GA since the recession are that Atlanta's housing market was hit very hard by the recession, and GA relies on a greater share of international migration than NC does for its current population growth. Immigration has slowed to a trickle since 2008. NC has been among the top 4 states for domestic in-migration for the past several years, along with FL, TX, and AZ. GA was like this in the 1990's, but its demographic growth profile has changed considerably. Once the economy ticks up again, I expect GA to start growing faster.

Originally Posted by diablo234

Of course I would not count on that trend continuing though. Once Texas reaches a critical mass of people other factors such as the cost of real estate and cost of living in general, will climb as well and some of the things that attracted people to Texas in the first place (such as affordable real estate, quality of life issues, etc) will cease to exist at least around the major cities. At this point Texas is where California was twenty-thirty years ago, growth wise.

Texas has a lot more land for its cities to expand on, so it has much more room for growth than California. I think those numbers for California are grossly overestimated. California will grow at about the national average for the next few years and once the economy turns around. Texas shows no signs of slowing down though. It's where California was in the 1980's, and Texas could very well beat California's record for a single-decade population gain (California gained over 6 million people in the 1980's) this decade.

[ohpenn]

The two big reasons NC has grown faster than GA since the recession are that Atlanta's housing market was hit very hard by the recession,

and Charlotte hasn't? That metro was a major loser in the financial job losses etc.

tlanta's housing market was hit very hard by the recession, and GA relies on a greater share of international migration than NC does for its current population growth.

Int'l wasn't the reason though, it was domestic migration that slowed Atl down (and others as well).

Once the economy ticks up again, I expect GA to start growing faster

Its pace will pick up, as will others. Expect NC to overall though, have more people by 2020.

[IberiaCLT]

Originally Posted by ohpenn

and Charlotte hasn't? That metro was a major loser in the financial job losses etc.

North Carolina has several large metro area's though than Georgia. Atlanta has a much larger impact on GA than Charlotte does on NC. I think.