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Old July 24th, 2013, 04:50 AM   #39461
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kongutamizhan View Post
Quality matters more than quantity. Sampling methodology and strategy matters more than size. 20000 is definitely decent number to work with
Boss,
Everyone understands that quality matters.

Since I had been part of Sampling done earlier in late 90's. I know how it works. 20000 is not a good number as per my judgement.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 05:32 AM   #39462
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Quote:
Originally Posted by R2IChennai View Post

I agree but 18% congress, I wonder whether they got the sampling in front of congress office
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Old July 24th, 2013, 05:49 AM   #39463
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Old July 24th, 2013, 05:49 AM   #39464
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But we must take one thing to consider ..
This survey is about Parliment election mood.
Tamil Nadu people are very smart in this.. I think the mood is towards AIADMK , cong and BJP .. Quite a number of people who are fed up with UPA will prefer BJP/ AIADMK as they may feel AIADMK will eventually support BJP.
As regards to DMK , their corruption , family paasam .. srilanka issue etc may be the reason for the vote % decline.
In total I feel this reflects the mood..
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Old July 24th, 2013, 06:10 AM   #39465
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actualy, I agree with KT. The randomness of respondents, how they accounted for probable voters (ppl who responded, but may not vote), liars (response bias)amongst the respondents, the time that this is taken (closer to the event the better confidence level/lower error) and the right questions to predict the preference of the respondent are some of the things that will make the poll prediction accurate.


If their method was scientific and close to optimal, then 400 would be good enough for 5% margin of error. In the US, I think major poll companies go with around 10000 as they shoot for lower margin of error…like 1%


Raosoft sample size calculator:
http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html
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Last edited by chennaiyorker; July 24th, 2013 at 06:55 AM.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 06:12 AM   #39466
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Individually the survey looks good, but it all depends on the coalition.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 07:28 AM   #39467
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anirudhswetha View Post
But we must take one thing to consider ..
This survey is about Parliment election mood.
Tamil Nadu people are very smart in this.. I think the mood is towards AIADMK , cong and BJP .. Quite a number of people who are fed up with UPA will prefer BJP/ AIADMK as they may feel AIADMK will eventually support BJP.
As regards to DMK , their corruption , family paasam .. srilanka issue etc may be the reason for the vote % decline.
In total I feel this reflects the mood..
If the mood is anti-UPA, why would Congress gain? (see bold). I think these numbers were massaged to make to Cong look good. And the whole 15% in 2009 because they aligned with DMK is an excuse. I am sure the surveyors know that DMK is out of UPA so how can Cong have 18%?

I am not a constituency expert but Cong tally in TN may come down to 2 to 3 from 8 in 2009. I hope the BJP can get at least 2 seats because every seat matters for them.

Question: I saw in Wiki that BJP won 4 seats in 1999. Which constituencies were these?
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Old July 24th, 2013, 08:09 AM   #39468
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Tamil Nadu voters will swing their moods
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Old July 24th, 2013, 08:19 AM   #39469
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gtmashok View Post
If the mood is anti-UPA, why would Congress gain? (see bold). I think these numbers were massaged to make to Cong look good. And the whole 15% in 2009 because they aligned with DMK is an excuse. I am sure the surveyors know that DMK is out of UPA so how can Cong have 18%?

I am not a constituency expert but Cong tally in TN may come down to 2 to 3 from 8 in 2009. I hope the BJP can get at least 2 seats because every seat matters for them.

Question: I saw in Wiki that BJP won 4 seats in 1999. Which constituencies were these?
If DMK parts away, it will be a loss for DMK so they will be the first one to retain the coalition.
Individually Congress can get 10 seats, but DMK cant. Overall its loss for DMK due to UPA scams.
Congress will try hard to get in DMDK along with DMK if they are successfull it will be loss for ADMK.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 08:55 AM   #39470
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gtmashok View Post
If the mood is anti-UPA, why would Congress gain? (see bold). I think these numbers were massaged to make to Cong look good. And the whole 15% in 2009 because they aligned with DMK is an excuse. I am sure the surveyors know that DMK is out of UPA so how can Cong have 18%?

I am not a constituency expert but Cong tally in TN may come down to 2 to 3 from 8 in 2009. I hope the BJP can get at least 2 seats because every seat matters for them.

Question: I saw in Wiki that BJP won 4 seats in 1999. Which constituencies were these?

Why Cong...

Apart from core supporters for the ADMK/DMK quite a good population of nuetral voters are there.

In this there is a strong group which are anti BJP at the centre.. With the prospect of BJP coming to power in 2014 in the air, this group will strongly vote for Cong even if they stand alone in TN. Hence I am able to understand the jump in cong %.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 09:00 AM   #39471
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Low-cost carrier Spice-Jet's CEO Neil Mills has resigned following reported differences with the airline's promoter, Chennai-based Sun TV chief Kalanithi Maran. Mills, who still had one-and-a-half years on his contract, was learnt to be unhappy with the slow pace of decisions in India. He had joined the airline in 2010 and was hired from FlyDubai.

Source
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Old July 24th, 2013, 10:37 AM   #39472
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If Karunanidhi dies just before the election, will that help dmk get sympathy vote?
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Old July 24th, 2013, 10:48 AM   #39473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anniyan View Post
If Karunanidhi dies just before the election, will that help dmk get sympathy vote?
WTK boss?
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Old July 24th, 2013, 10:54 AM   #39474
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Modi visa row: Yechury says he did not sign any petition

The latest comes with CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury who has denied signing on a petition sent to the US president Barack Obama against granting visa to Modi.

Yechury has been denying such a letter to Obama while other MPs who signed on it, say that he must have forgotten that he signed it.

CNN-IBN quoted Yechury saying: 'I would be the last person to write to the US Administration and to do something like this. We don't want anyone to interfere in the internal affairs of the country. Secondly, it is up to the US government to decide on giving visa.'

The letters written in November and December 2012 by 65 Indian MPs asking US President Barack Obama to continue to deny Modi a visa were re-sent last Sunday.

Correct stand taken by Mr Yechuri..



Mohammed Adeeb, an independent Rajya Sabha MP, who initiated the move, was surprised at Yechury's denial.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 10:56 AM   #39475
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தேனியில் மு.க.ஸ்டாலினுக்கு ரூபாய் நோட்டுகளை பறக்க விட்டு வரவேற்பு

தேனி வந்த தி.மு.க. பொருளாளர் மு.க.ஸ்டாலினுக்கு கட்சி நிர்வாகி ஒருவர் 500, 100 ரூபாய் நோட்டுகளை பறக்க விட்டு உற்சாக வரவேற்பு அளித்தார்.

தி.மு.க. இளைஞர் அணி நேர்காணல் கருணாநிதி பிறந்த நாள் விழா மற்றும் தேர்தல் நிதி அளிப்பு பொதுக்கூட்டத்தில் பங்கேற்பதற்காக கட்சியின் பொருளாளர் ஸ்டாலின் நேற்று தேனி வந்தார்.

அரண்மனைப்புதூர் விலக்கு அருகே ஸ்டாலின் வந்தபோது அங்கு அவருக்கு அதிர்வேட்டுக்கள் முழங்கவும், தாரை, தப்பட்டை, சென்டை மேளம் முழங்க உற்சாக வரவேற்பு அளிக்கப்பட்டது. பாதுகாப்பு வாகனம் சென்றதும் ஸ்டாலின் காரை தொண்டர்கள் சூழ்ந்தனர்.

அப்போது தி.மு.க. நிர்வாகி 500, 100 ரூபாய் நோட்டுக்களை ஸ்டாலின் வந்த வாகனத்தின் மீது வீசி கோஷங்களை எழுப்பினார். இந்த ரூபாய் நோட்டுகளை எடுப்பதற்காக தொண்டர்கள் இடிபாடுகளுக்குள் சிக்கி மிதிபட்டனர். ஆனால் இந்த நேரத்தில் ஸ்டாலின் தனது காரை நிறுத்தாமல் ஓட்டலுக்கு சென்று விட்டார்.

இடிபாடுகளுக்குள் சிக்கிய தொண்டர்களில் சிலருக்கு பணம் அகப்பட்டது. சிலருக்கு நோட்டுகள் கிழிந்த நிலையிலும், அழுக்கான நிலையிலும் கிடைத்தது. பணம் கிடைத்தவர்கள் சந்தோஷத்திலும், கிடைக்காதவர்கள் சற்று ஏமாற்றத்துடன் சென்றனர். அதில் சிலர் பணத்தை சூறை விடுவதை காட்டிலும் வரிசையாக நிற்க வைத்து தொண்டர்களுக்கு கொடுத்திருந்தால் சந்தோஷப்பட்டிருப்பார்கள் என்று ஆதங்கத்துடன் கூறி சென்றனர்.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 12:27 PM   #39476
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DMK chief, Karunanidhi in Austrian stamp




The Austrian government has honoured DMK chief M Karunanidhi with a postage stamp for his 90th birthday, which was celebrated on June 3.

This decision was the result of number of requests from 'individuals' in Austria, who drew the attention of the Austrian postal service on the nonagenarian's contributions in the field of public life, cinema and literature.

The stamp has the image of the DMK leader's face with the band of party flag, red and black and numeral 90, denoting his age as a backdrop. The stamp is a limited version and comes at a cost of 90 euros.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 02:06 PM   #39477
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gtmashok View Post



Question: I saw in Wiki that BJP won 4 seats in 1999. Which constituencies were these?
Trichy, Nagercoil, Kovai and South Chennai?
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Old July 24th, 2013, 02:08 PM   #39478
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If Karunanidhi dies just before the election, will that help dmk get sympathy vote?
Potentially, if DMK does not split before his karumaadhi.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 02:10 PM   #39479
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When are the elections going to be? April/May or even earlier?
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Old July 24th, 2013, 02:15 PM   #39480
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Trichy, Nagercoil, Kovai and South Chennai?
4th one is Nilgiris.
BJP has some votes in Mettupalayam.
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