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Old October 6th, 2017, 07:13 PM   #19461
sotonsi
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Waterloo East is a reasonable analogue - the longer-distance (non-metro) trains to Charing Cross don't stop there, despite there being platforms. So trains going slowly (as they terminate not far away) don't stop and have an interchange with the country's busiest railway station.

I'd also raise Marylebone and Baker Street as a similar thing to the Birmingham situation.
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Old October 6th, 2017, 08:17 PM   #19462
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Can Edinburgh and Glasgow fill a train each on a regular enough basis to justify a new line over such distance? I don't know what their numbers are like. My thinking is that perhaps it would be more efficient to have one train which serves both, as well as the North East. It would probably mean Newcastle and Edinburgh being served by parkway type stations though.

Regarding the Liverpool discussion, if they ever get to building an HS2 "by-pass" to Toton then with a new line from Sheffield to Manchester couldn't Liverpool by served by trains taking that route? Thereby connecting the North West to the East Midlands en route to London.
Yes. The passenger numbers come from massive modal shift from air to rail, as journey times below 3 hours make rail the default option for travel. No one would fly from London to Manchester today unless they were connecting at Heathrow. There's a good tipping point effect here too, as the air journey times are enabled by the high frequency of flights. As planes become less competitive, fewer flights will run, making them less frequent and further increasing effective journey times. I've done the sums before but Glasgow+Edinburgh to Heathrow+City+Gatwick+Stansted+Luton is actually one of the busiest air passenger flows in the entire world. It just doesn't appear in the statistics because it's split across so many airports.
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Old October 6th, 2017, 09:14 PM   #19463
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It really doesn't seem like it would be that difficult to do, maybe as a retro addition later on if need's be. All that's needed is a simple two-platform station, and there is room for extra tracks so that fast trains can pass through to New St. I take the point about not wanting to slow trains down but surely trains on the commuter routes would benefit from having easy interchange with HS2 and with Snow Hill rail routes? Rail already has integrated ticketing so this type of thing could revolutionize Birmingham's rail network.
The problem would be you've got 12/13 platform's worth of trains at New Street then having to funnel into a four track tunnel as they do now. But add in the additional waiting time for trains stopping at Curzon Street. They should never have turned their noses up at Arup's Grand Central idea, but they dismissed it so arrogantly when it was blatantly the better idea. It's like someone came up to Birmingham council or whoever and said "We have a great idea, and a mediocre one" and they actually chose the mediocre one. If there had been any sort of foresight and joined up thinking the redevelopment of New Street would have been scrapped and a new integrated station at Curzon Street built with platforms for HS2 already waiting for the line when it eventually gets there.

I guarantee not long after HS2 opens, this major oversight will become a very embarrassing issue. That it isn't already is worrying, HS2 is littered with terrible planning and a lack of integration. This project was supposed to be a revolution in the way we plan transport infrastructure, but instead it's making the same old mistakes. And having the same dead end branches in major cities is a bit disappointing when our main lines have shown this has been a constraint to connecting regional cities to each other. This never had to be delivered in one expensive go, one small stage at a time would have sufficed.

The only way I can see Birmingham's messy stations layout being resolved into something resembling an integrated hub is with Birmingham getting it's own crossrail tunnel and station wedged in between Curzon and New Street and providing a hallway between the two.

Oh, and I think Liverpool should be fully connected. If ever there was a city with the potential to become something more than it is now with high speed railway, Liverpool is probably it. I also think Hull is probably a decent shout for the transformative effect of a high speed link as well.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 02:15 AM   #19464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VDB View Post
It really doesn't seem like it would be that difficult to do, maybe as a retro addition later on if need's be. All that's needed is a simple two-platform station, and there is room for extra tracks so that fast trains can pass through to New St. I take the point about not wanting to slow trains down but surely trains on the commuter routes would benefit from having easy interchange with HS2 and with Snow Hill rail routes? Rail already has integrated ticketing so this type of thing could revolutionize Birmingham's rail network.
I've been banging on about the lack of plans for classic lines platforms at Curzon Street almost since HS2 phase 1 was announced - it is clearly the biggest failing of the entire project. It's amazing it still hasn't been addressed, all those trains passing by Curzon Street without stopping! .

There are now expensive plans to finally build the Camp Hill curves and allow a lot more rail services that can run into Moor St (which will be only about a 150-200m walk). That will be good generally for the West Midlands. But there is still going to be a huge hole in heavy rail connectivity compared to New Street (which will mean a walk for passengers of 700m distance at a minimum).

Eventually the penny will drop when people in Walsall, Wolverhampton, Coventry, Aston etc. realise that they simply don't have a convenient way to catch their local train and join a HS2 train in central Birmingham, as they can join a Virgin or XC train today at New Street. Or indeed to get to the thriving new Eastside developments that HS2 will kick-start. Sooner or later it has to be addressed, and the longer that the WM authorities bury their heads in the sand the worse it will be when they finally acknowledge what has to be done.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 02:20 AM   #19465
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Meanwhile Hitachi are very confident that HS2 will bring a great many benefits to the UK, especially our engineering sector.

Quote:
How is Britain already benefitting from Hitachi’s work on HS2?

In a blog post written by Hitachi, Jim Brewin, Head of Business Development for Hitachi Rail Europe, writing for the ‘HS2 on Track’ report, explains how HS2 is already benefiting Britain – a decade before it is due to be completed.

HS2 is a huge opportunity for the UK – from the capacity it frees-up for passengers to the economic opportunities it unlocks. What is less well understood is that the project is already benefiting the country now, almost a decade before the first trains go into service.

One of HS2’s legacies will be the considerable innovation and technological change that it encourages, and this thinking is already taking place across the country. Furthermore, a knowledge transfer from across the globe to the UK is well underway – and will be a boost to Britain for years to come.
The blog continues here: https://www.globalrailwayreview.com/...chis-work-hs2/
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Old October 7th, 2017, 02:36 AM   #19466
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salif View Post
Can Edinburgh and Glasgow fill a train each on a regular enough basis to justify a new line over such distance? I don't know what their numbers are like. My thinking is that perhaps it would be more efficient to have one train which serves both, as well as the North East. It would probably mean Newcastle and Edinburgh being served by parkway type stations though.
The answer is yes, and here are some numbers.

In August Virgin trains told us they had now captured 33% of the London - Glasgow/Edinburgh market (for rail/air) and quoted 2.2 million passengers. That implies the current market is about 6.7 million journeys per annum.

If rail could get 80% modal share of the existing market by getting timings under three hours that would mean 5.36 million journeys, or 7,342 passengers each way based on 365 days a year.

Of course by 2033 you would expect further growth, and indeed more journeys being made simply because the shorter journey time would make trips viable by rail that are not today. So even if you assume a very conservative 25% uplift you could then be looking at 9,200 each way. That would mean 18 trains a day with almost every seat taken, or more realistically 32 services at roughly 55% seat occupancy (and not counting passengers to/from Preston/B'ham Interchange).

In other words, it is clearly well worth doing.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 09:55 AM   #19467
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Astonishing that a million more people than the entire Scottish population travel to and from London each year. Do the rail figures quoted refer only to passengers boarding/alighting in Scotland, or do they include those doing the same at stops along the route?
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Old October 7th, 2017, 11:29 AM   #19468
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They should never have turned their noses up at Arup's Grand Central idea, but they dismissed it so arrogantly when it was blatantly the better idea.
There was a bit of 'not invented here' stuff from NR, but mostly it was Alistair Darling, as Transport Secretary, actively opposing making transport better that killed Grand Central dead. The work then started on New Street (which Darling only let happen to stop Grand Central happening should he get reshuffled) and Adonis' HS2 designers fell for the sunk cost fallacy and didn't bring up a Grand Central-esque station because New Street was in the middle of an expensive upgrade.

Also, in the interim, Birmingham City Council, who'd been keeping the land clear for Grand Central had started releasing bits of it after their dream was crushed by Eagle Al's hatred of Transport*. Again, sunk costs fallacy, but HS2 Ltd was not keen on knocking down dense city centre development after only about 10 years and so rejected an integrated station on the Curzon Street site.
Quote:
It's like someone came up to Birmingham council or whoever and said "We have a great idea, and a mediocre one" and they actually chose the mediocre one.
Birmingham City Council were very much in favour of Grand Central (they commissioned ARUP to draw up some ideas, IIRC), only giving up in favour of the original New Street proposal when Do-Nothing Darling said it was that or nothing.

*The Adonis and after phenomina where we actually plan and build transport schemes came after 10 years of Government opinion ranging from neglecting it as unimportant to active BANANA opposition. Birmingham CC couldn't forsee a dramatic 180-turn in the approach to transport by Westminster politicians of all stripes, nor should we have expected them to.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 11:54 AM   #19469
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Such is the stupidity of our government!
Such is the stupidity of the whole unneeded HS2 network. The NHS needs the money, instead of wasting it on building antiquated technology that does not even serve most major areas.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 11:57 AM   #19470
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Astonishing that a million more people than the entire Scottish population travel to and from London each year.
More people travel London-Liverpool than London-Edinburgh/Glasgow.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 12:05 PM   #19471
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More people travel London-Liverpool than London-Edinburgh/Glasgow.
Evidence for your claim please!
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Old October 7th, 2017, 01:56 PM   #19472
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Originally Posted by sotonsi View Post
There was a bit of 'not invented here' stuff from NR, but mostly it was Alistair Darling, as Transport Secretary, actively opposing making transport better that killed Grand Central dead. The work then started on New Street (which Darling only let happen to stop Grand Central happening should he get reshuffled) and Adonis' HS2 designers fell for the sunk cost fallacy and didn't bring up a Grand Central-esque station because New Street was in the middle of an expensive upgrade.

Also, in the interim, Birmingham City Council, who'd been keeping the land clear for Grand Central had started releasing bits of it after their dream was crushed by Eagle Al's hatred of Transport*. Again, sunk costs fallacy, but HS2 Ltd was not keen on knocking down dense city centre development after only about 10 years and so rejected an integrated station on the Curzon Street site.Birmingham City Council were very much in favour of Grand Central (they commissioned ARUP to draw up some ideas, IIRC), only giving up in favour of the original New Street proposal when Do-Nothing Darling said it was that or nothing.

*The Adonis and after phenomina where we actually plan and build transport schemes came after 10 years of Government opinion ranging from neglecting it as unimportant to active BANANA opposition. Birmingham CC couldn't forsee a dramatic 180-turn in the approach to transport by Westminster politicians of all stripes, nor should we have expected them to.
I think even without HS2 Birmingham Grand Central was a much needed idea. I don't think it should be considered dead and buried, nothing has been put in place yet. But it's disappointing that for a ground breaking project we're having to hope for a dramatic change in attitude for it to be all that it can be. Maybe they can go all Antwerp Centraal on Curzon Street and build a couple of lower levels with new tunnels crossing the city. I believe Grand Central was envisaged as a largely terminating station with some through platforms and a whole load of tracks feeding into it from the East, North and South? So this would probably work out even better. HS2 tracks terminating on the top level, next level down outer regional and inter city platforms and the level below that cross-city network platforms with about four tracks in either direction for trains to all corners of the West Midlands. Or just reuse the existing tunnels for suburban trains and have all other traffic enter from the East and terminate on the regional deck or Moor Street.

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Old October 7th, 2017, 03:19 PM   #19473
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I think the other short sighted part in Brum is the lack of a link, or even passive provision as I understand, to the classic lines in the area so cross country trains can use the two HS2 northern branches can continue to the south west and south Wales
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Old October 7th, 2017, 03:29 PM   #19474
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Regarding the Liverpool discussion, if they ever get to building an HS2 "by-pass" to Toton then with a new line from Sheffield to Manchester couldn't Liverpool by served by trains taking that route? Thereby connecting the North West to the East Midlands en route to London.
What you suggest is what was envisaged for years by Greengage 21 as their final UK HSR network, long before HS2's Y network came into being IIRC. Two N-S lines radiating from London: a line up the east coast, a line up the west coast, with a trans-Pennine semi-HS line (presumably GC gauge cleared) from Sheffield to Mcr (with a delta Jct at the east end so Mcr-Leeds/NE trains could join the eastern N-S line near Barnsley, with the eaten line going to Edinburgh, the western to Glasgow, then a semi-HS linking those two Scottish cities together to complete a loop. It also had HS to SW England too. It was alll very schematically drawn mind. Of course such a network can't give journey time parity between adjacent cities with London, but few models can including the current HS2 one where Liverpool must lose out to Mcr and Sheffield to Leeds (although for the latter pair this has been the case in terms of rail to London for decades already), but IF NPR and Glasgow-Edinburgh HSR delivers frequent fast links between the adjacent city pairs then at least the residents of the 'losing' town can access the more abundant jobs created in the beteer-connected 'winner' town.
If you only build an England-Scotland HS link up the west coast only (to Carstairs for both shortest chainage and journey parity between G&E) then clearly Newcastle becomes the real loser, albeit that it already enjoys excellent links with London via ECML.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 03:36 PM   #19475
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The upside to that is Newcastle will have services using HS2 tracks to just before York, then a four track railway that goes in a straight line (which could be upgraded to 250 km/h) and then after that eliminating conflicting movements at Darlington, a new straight line to where the Leamside line breaks away, a reopened Leamside line and a link to Chester-le-Street and most of what could be done with full HS tracks has probably been achieved. In Scotland's case, they've got a very long section of twisting railway to deal with. I can see why the West Coast is the favoured option, as long as Newcastle doesn't get neglected.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 03:55 PM   #19476
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but IF NPR and Glasgow-Edinburgh HSR delivers frequent fast links between the adjacent city pairs then at least the residents of the 'losing' town can access the more abundant jobs created in the beteer-connected 'winner' town.

If you only build an England-Scotland HS link up the west coast only (to Carstairs for both shortest chainage and journey parity between G&E) then clearly Newcastle becomes the real loser, albeit that it already enjoys excellent links with London via ECML.
I think you're misinterpreting the problem with unequal journey times between Glasgow and Edinburgh. It's not about the impact on the local economies of those cities (which as you say is inevitable somewhere with this kind of investment) but the effect of a longer journey time on the railway itself. If we can't serve Glasgow in under 3 hours then a smaller proportion of the total Glaswegian travellers will use the new railway, weakening the business case for the line. Given that the economics of a HSR Scotland line depend on c80% of London-Scotland travellers using the new railway any design that reduces this number would be considered a poor choice. While Greengauge suggested that it is technically possible to serve both cities in under 3 hours, using an east coast route such a project would require far more investment* than a west coast route.

* A new Toton-London direct line, a route through the Northumbrian National Park and the Southern Uplands, new through stations in Newcastle and Edinburgh.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 04:28 PM   #19477
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More people travel London-Liverpool than London-Edinburgh/Glasgow.
Ha, ha ha - you are such a clown! I love it when you make stupid statements that can be instantly proven to be utter rubbish.

From the Virgin Trains media centre:

Quote:
Sep 01, 2017 10:30 BST
Virgin Trains sees record numbers travelling between Liverpool and London as journeys top 1.75m.

Aug 21, 2017 06:30 BST
Virgin Trains has hailed an “historic shift” in travel patterns as more Scotland-London passengers choose train over plane than at any time in more than 20 years.

The increase in market share for rail journeys comes against an increase in the overall travel market, with air and rail travel between Glasgow/Edinburgh and London increasing from 6 million in 2014 to 6.7 million last year.

This left Virgin with a 33% share of the air/rail market on the UK’s busiest domestic air routes....
For the benefit of the cerebrally challenged troll - 33% of 6.7 million is 2.211 million.

So it is beyond all doubt, there are 461,000 more rail journeys from Edinburgh/Glasgow to London than there are from Liverpool.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 04:33 PM   #19478
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Astonishing that a million more people than the entire Scottish population travel to and from London each year. Do the rail figures quoted refer only to passengers boarding/alighting in Scotland, or do they include those doing the same at stops along the route?

Do you not read the actual words? I stated:
Quote:
"33% of the London - Glasgow/Edinburgh market (for rail/air)"
There is zero ambiguity in that statement. It clearly does not include direct journeys from Aberdeen, Lockerbie, Dunbar, Kilmarnock etc.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 04:43 PM   #19479
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The upside to that is Newcastle will have services using HS2 tracks to just before York, then a four track railway that goes in a straight line (which could be upgraded to 250 km/h) and then after that eliminating conflicting movements at Darlington, a new straight line to where the Leamside line breaks away, a reopened Leamside line and a link to Chester-le-Street and most of what could be done with full HS tracks has probably been achieved. In Scotland's case, they've got a very long section of twisting railway to deal with. I can see why the West Coast is the favoured option, as long as Newcastle doesn't get neglected.

I very much doubt we'll ever see regular 250 km/h running on the classic ECML tracks. It's generally accepted that the absolute aerodynamic limit with standard British track and platform spacings is 225 km/h (140mph). Only on ex broad gauge sections of Brunel's GWML might this speed be feasible.

Of course you could widen the formation (replacing bridges between York and Darlington, moving platforms at Thirsk and Northallerton etc.) But that would be so much cost and effort that you might as well just build a new 300 km/h plus alignment and save the disruption. And that gives 50% more tracks as well.
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Old October 7th, 2017, 04:53 PM   #19480
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Well considering that Edinburgh and Glasgow have a combined population of well above 3 million, Liverpool compares very well. Especially in view of the completely inadequate one train per hour service!
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