Will Grosvenor deliver on it's promises - will L1 be a success?

[T0M]

At the request of at least one person, and probably the desire of many, I've opened a new thread specifically to discuss the question above.

Grosvenor promised the city a lot when it proposed the L1 scheme, and whilst they're delivering on the ground in terms of the physical infrastructure, questions are being raised as to the relative success in the lettings and the overall nature of the finished product.

Have Grosvenor overstretched themselves? Is it the right thing at the wrong time or vice versa? Will it be a success regardless of the lettings? Is the absence of a major high end new anchor store going to make or break the project?

It's a massive discussion, lots of passion, plenty of speculation and a few genuinely salient points along the way...

The floor is open..

[thecityofgold]

Not for at least 5 years.

The economy in the UK is turning and retail will suffer disproportionately as it become near impossible to borrow money.

[T0M]

Interesting thought. When you consider the average household debt in this country is nearly £9,000 not including mortgages (£55,500 including mortgages) and rising every month, and that the national personal debt is £1,345 billion, you have to wonder how much longer this unchecked spending spree can continue.

Total consumer credit lending to individuals in June 2007 was £214bn. This has increased 5.2% in the last 12 months. (Source: http://www.creditaction.org.uk/debtstats.htm) Much of the retail economy is based on credit lending, and there has to be a 'crunch' point when people realise they simply can't keep spending beyond their means. Does this mean that we'll see the end of huge retail projects like L1? If so is the Paradise project going to turn back into deserted wastleland within a decade?

[thecityofgold]

Liverpool 1 will just sit there, half empty, for many years..

It's not a disaster because what was there in the first place was a wasteland.. I believe everything moves in cycles so at some point things will pick up and Liverpool 1 will be a success.

Just give it time for all that debt to be either paid back or inflated away.

For all that some of us moan about the lack of quality retailers in Liverpool 1, it may ironically be the likes of The Pound Shop who we will be greatful to for filling it over the coming years.

As you might notice I have a very pessimistic view of the near financial future for the world!

[Villiers Terrace]

Originally Posted by thecityofgold

Liverpool 1 will just sit there, half empty, for many years..

It's not a disaster because what was there in the first place was a wasteland.. I believe everything moves in cycles so at some point things will pick up and Liverpool 1 will be a success.

Just give it time for all that debt to be either paid back or inflated away.

For all that some of us moan about the lack of quality retailers in Liverpool 1, it may ironically be the likes of The Pound Shop who we will be greatful to for filling it over the coming years.

As you might notice I have a very pessimistic view of the near financial future for the world!

Even in Islington, London you have brand new retail space on the ground level of an expensive mixed-used project, still unoccuppied two years after completion....

Way of the world....(and other cliches...)

[Pietari]

Originally Posted by T0M

At the request of at least one person, and probably the desire of many, I've opened a new thread specifically to discuss the question above.

Grosvenor promised the city a lot when it proposed the L1 scheme, and whilst they're delivering on the ground in terms of the physical infrastructure, questions are being raised as to the relative success in the lettings and the overall nature of the finished product.

Have Grosvenor overstretched themselves? Is it the right thing at the wrong time or vice versa? Will it be a success regardless of the lettings? Is the absence of a major high end new anchor store going to make or break the project?

It's a massive discussion, lots of passion, plenty of speculation and a few genuinely salient points along the way...

The floor is open..

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpo...postcount=1221

Indeed, the planning case for the development said it was hoped the trams would carry two-thirds of the shoppers expected to visit Liverpool One. Facilities such as a ticket office had already been built as part of the Liverpool One scheme and the city’s road layout was altered to accommodate the tram scheme before it was called-off.

Despite what was a huge setback for the region, a tram system remains high on the list of priorities for Merseytravel, and it remains within the region’s five-year Local Transport Plan. Liver- pool One will be home to 160 retail outlets, restaurants, cinemas and hotels when it opens.

During the podcast interview, which can be heard in full at www. thebusinessweek.co.uk, Ms Jennings predicted the whole scheme would be close to fully let by the time it opens in the middle of next year.
Joanne Jennings, boss of Liverpool One.

Optomism v pesimism......

[Scarecrow]

It will be a success eventually. However, with many shops moving from the traditional shopping area around Lord/Church St, how will the old area fare, and will the difference in choice, for all that money, really be all that great?

I know that Grosvenor are obligated under contract to find new tenants for the vacated sites, but knowing how Liverpool City Council likes to bollocks everything up, do you think there is a time limit for them to do this? Is there a clause in the contract that states premises have to be filled within a set time limit, or will Church Street be near derelict for decades?

It may sound a stupid question, but we do have a very stupid council.

[PhilG]

Bunnyman, i think Church St will be fine, M&S are staying and actually expanding their shop, the John Lewis store will become a hotel and the Topman is being expanded with an access into PSDA.

It's the areas like Williamson Sq, ABC cinema, London Road that i worry about, nothing seems to be getting done with these areas, i am all for PSDA but i always thought we could have fitted it into the already derelict/shut areas/shops that we had.

[Awayo]

That's something that's struck me about this whole "pent up demand for space theory": whenever new space has become available in the existing shopping area in recent years it has not always been snapped up, far from it often, and when is has been it's usually to some pretty low end stuff.

The argument of course is that "quality" retailers want the best space, and, yes, this is borne out by the success of the Met Quarter's lettings campaign.

However, with so much of what is going into Liverpool One being average retail at best, it does raise the question of what on earth is going to replace vacated units in the Williamson Square end of town. Some shops will keep two shops open in the centre of town, but I'm sure that plenty will not. Note that several Liverpool One signings are from the St Johns Centre.

The idea of small and entrepreneurial operations taking up this space sounds interesting, but how can this be encouraged? I think the streets between Williamson Square and Church St and Whitechapel are actually a model to follow. It is one part of Liverpool that, although a little scruffy, is still full of small, owner-occupied shops.

The sheer scale of relocation is so big that I can't help thinking that its too much for the market and what entrepreneurship Liverpoool has still within it to be able to replace the empty units quickly. And I can't help but thinking that parts of that bit of the centre, even if many of the units are taken up, might be taken by the sorts of things that were occupying Bold Street in the 80s and early 90s.

[PhilG]

Hi Awayo, i sort of agree, without the big names being attracted to the new development i worry that other parts of town will suffer, we needed a couple of big boys to bring in the smaller 'hangers-on'.

It isn't doing that and i think that the 'ripple effect' as Liverpool Vision call it, won't happen, i really hope i am wrong and i will be shopping in town as much as ever doing my bit to make it a success, with the missus of course!

[boychild]

Apart from HMV and George Henry Lees, Im not aware of anybody else moving and as pointed out, Marksies are not just staying, but taking over the whole block including the Williamson square side. Church street will not suffer in the slightest from this development and I think will in fact become a more upmarket area to shop. Bold streeet will continue to do what it is doing and St Johns will either drag itself up or eventually sucomb to redevelopment - neither one a bad thing IMHO.
If you go to other large shopping areas like Glasgow, Leeds or Manchester, companies do have multiple outlets. In Glasgow for instance, Sauchihall street has virtually exactly the same shops as around St Enochs centre which is the other main high street type area with the two being linked by more exclusive shopping areas.
Oxford street in London has multiples in the same street, never mind area. Dont forget about the multiples that we have or have had. Argos has always had a number of units within the city, Woolworths used to, Burtons used to have at least three. Superdrug has 2 at the moment and the higher end mid level clothes shops like Karen Millen, Oasis, Coast and Jane Norman have at least 2. Flannels have already announced a second store with different lines available.
I really believe that people are being far too pesimistic about the whole thing (and probably understanably so because of past poor experience in Liverpool) but will be pleasantly surprised by this whole development and its lettings. The number of chains that do not currently have units in this city could fill the development alone and I know of 2 locally owned and run clothing sotres that are not represented in the city but are looking at opening an outlet within the development. This development will be let as Grosvenor are predicting and just because Harvey Nicks or Selfridges havent yet decided to open here and sell exactly the same stuff that we can get elsewhere in the city will not alter this.
I am concerned about the ODEON on London road though and wonder what will happen there? Are they closing it and if so, what will happen to te building?

[T0M]

I do agree with Awayo to some extent about the potentially vacant shops spaces in places like Lord Street. We have seen a number of smaller shops which have changed hands numerous times in the last few years, for example the short row which houses Lush on one of the sides of Clayton Square seems to struggle to keep shops for very long, although perhaps it's the size of the letting space?

I like the idea of creating some dedicated space within the city to encourage small entrepreneurial operations, but again worry that it might be too prescriptive and actually hamper the retail market in the long run.

Eventually I think the main Streets will be fine, although they might suffer a bit of a drought in the period between the current shops moving out and the point at which the city centre reaches a significant ciritical mass that it begins to naturally draw in other retailers.

I also agree with Boychild that far from being a negative sign, the duplication of the same shops accross the city is actually an important part of becoming a major retail centre. It helps to define distincy 'areas' within the city and moves us away from the 'one long highstreet' provincial approach where you have 'one of everything' arranged in a neat line either side of a main road. Manchester has proved how well this 'seperate village' approach can work - and hopefully we'll see St Johns undergo an Arndale style amke over within the next decade.

[Awayo]

APPLE
BARCLAYS
BARRATTS
BODY SHOP
CARPHONE WAREHOUSE
CLINTONS
DEBENHAMS
ERNEST JONES
ESPRIT
FAITH
GAME
GOLDSMITHS
H&M
H SAMUEL
JANE NORMAN
JD/NIKE
JOHN LEWIS
JONES
KAREN MILLEN
NEW LOOK
OASIS
ORANGE
O2
REISS
SCOTTS
SPORTS WORLD
SUPERDRUG
TED BAKER
THE PERFUME SHOP
THREESTORE
TOPSHOP/TOPMAN
USC
VIRGIN MEGASTORES
WAREHOUSE

Okay. Above is the list of signed stores downloaded today from the Liverpool One website. Of the 34 signed only five were not already in Liverpool city centre (those in red).

We know that John Lewis will relocate. Barclays already have, leaving part of one of the best buildings in Liverpool (and its superb banking hall) empty.

Esprit have already closed their Met Quarter branch.

Some stores will keep more than one branch open. But all this 34 (and probably a fair bit more by the time the letting campaign finishes)?

I think boychild is being overly optimistic. The closing down of existing city centre shops caused by Liverpool One is already happening.

Are there really going to be two Virgin Megastores in town? Two branches of Reiss and Ted Baker so close to each other? Two large Flannels in such proximity (and, yes, I know that's what we've been told there will be - for now)? I can't believe it, sorry.

There is going to be a lot of closing of existing stores in town because of this.

[T0M]

Interesting looking at the list like that. I don't think anyone's arguing that some stores won't close as a result of the move into L1, but lots will keep two stores open, and there are still a lot of shops out there that Liverpool have yet to aquire, so all that 'remaining space' doesn't mean empty space.

I agree that we'll see a period in which the traditional shopping streets will suffer the loss of some of their staple shops - but I don't think it will last very long, and I think the end result, more shops being added to the city (either new shops or second shops) will be well worth any short term shortfall.

The truth is the city centre is growing rapidly in terms of retail space and geographic size. When the Central Station develpment kicks in the town 'centre' is going to have to adapt into a number of interconnected but descrete 'shopping villages' - rather than one large 'hub' of a city centre. As this happens we'll see more duplication of key stores like Virgin, Boots etc - as well as specialised shops developing around retail themes. The same thing has happened in Manchester and Glasgow and it's now the only way forward for Liverpool. Part of the reason we've been unable to compete regionally has been due to our limited capacity (not discounting wider socio-economic reasons) - so the addition of 1 million square feet of additional retail space is in no way a 'bad thing' for the city - provided we stay on an even economic keel for the next decade or so.

I'd be interested to know where boychild got the information about the current John Lewis site being used as a hotel?

[Awayo]

Originally Posted by boychild

The number of chains that do not currently have units in this city could fill the development alone.

Really? But Grosvenor is not signing them. Why?

We keep on getting told that things will change and I want to believe them, although only smaller units are now left.

[boychild]

I really don't think I am being over optimistic. Barclays have merely moved to a building that is more suitable for the way a modern bank is run and would have done so with or without this development. Their over the counter dealings in the city being more domestic than business related these days (this is another issue altogether but a fact) means it makes sense for them to move to a more accesable location for its customers.
Otherwise, Esprit is the only example of a shop moving and again there is more to the move than meets the eye. No business even if planning to move would do so before their new premises are even built with all the hassle of moving staff to other premises while waiting and losing any customer base they have. Esprit closing their doors in the Met quarter has something to do with the Met quarter rather than being because of Liverpool one (before anyone cites HMV, they had to close because of construction)
As for the lack of new lettings, again other cities that have gone through similar must be looked at. Manchester's redevolpment around the exchange after the bomb was made up of second stores and a couple of relocations. Marks and Spencers opened a huge new store that was open for a few years before they gave half up for Selfridges to take over. The Traingle which was developed by the same people as the Met Quarter took ages to begin to fill and agin, many shops were already open in the city with Adidas originals being the only early new unit let.
Manchester even lost it's Lewiss department store alltogether to be replaced by Primark and TK Maxx. TK Maxx have incidentally just relocated to a new development in Market street which is their equivalent of Church street. Primark are now redevolping the lower floor to make their shop bigger.
I totally understand what you are saying and it is always a concern but that is all. There is no evidence whatsover that all the negatives will happen other than peoples personal opinions and the development and its lettings are foloowing the same path as every other large retail development I have seen in the country (slightly better than most in fact - even Met quarter let much quicker than The Triangle!)
Sorry Tom, I never said that George Henry Lees would be used for a hotel, that was someone else mate so can't help you on that one

[boychild]

Originally Posted by Awayo

Really? But Grosvenor is not signing them. Why?

We keep on getting told that things will change and I want to believe them, although only smaller units are now left.

Sorry for the double post (although I dont know why its a problem..........

Yes, really! And it is the smaller units that they will want.
Grosvenor will attempt to sign them but don't forget that it is their choice, not Grosvenor's. Grosvenor do not want empty units.
I think we have a huge problem at the moment in wanting everything to happen yesterday and quicker than it has ever happened anywhere else. We have a lot of catching up to do in all areas, esoecially retail and the size of Liverpool one cannot be underestimated. Businesses will sign up when they have the confidence and it will be a drip effect for a while with the businesses who are already here and understanding the market being the first to sign. As these sign, more non represented will sign and as more of these do, others will become more confident about the location and sign. I hope I dont sound patronising spelling it out like this but it is basic economics and follows a tried and tested path that has taken place in Leeds, Manchester, Glasgow, Nottingham over the past decade. It will not happen more quickly in Liverpool because people need proof, it will follow its natural course like everywhere else
I have every confidence that Grosvenor will deliver their promnises in the time frame they are saying because the evidence so far backs their claims up!

[T0M]

Good posts boychild (sorry you're right it was PhilG who said teh John Lewis building will be used as a hotel).

I agree on nearly everything you've said, although I think the main point Awayo is making is that Grosvenor don't appear to have delivered on all their promises at this point in time. Which is fair enough, we haven't got the major new anchor they led us to believe we'd get, and we're still to see that influx of funky new shops we're all hoping for (Awayo included!).

The main bone of contention however is what all this means... for Awayo it spells distaster, for most of the rest of us it spells a slightly slower than anticipated delivery of the development we want to see.

The other question is, even if Grosvenor don't deliver on all of their promises, can the development still be classed as a success for the city? I think so.

[PhilG]

[QUOTE=I'd be interested to know where boychild got the information about the current John Lewis site being used as a hotel?[/QUOTE]

It was something i heard a while back, i can't remember why we where discussing it at the time but a mate of mine is manager of one of the larger shops in town and he seems to think it's a done deal.

I think it's a great idea but who knows, it could end up being a Selfridges/Harvey Nics

[Wirral]

M&S are going to move into George Henry Lee's, while there existing store gets knocked down and re-built for them to move back into.