Ethiopia's GDP projected to reach USD half trillion by 2023

[Yoniii]

Originally Posted by Shumbi

Economic integration with Kenya will allow access to the Indian ocean port of Lamu. A rail project is in the offing to achieve this.

China doesn't have democracy and has state controlled media and it's economic growth is the fastest among large economies. Democracy is not a panacea though it is desirable for social reasons not for economic development.

About the port.. to what price? We currently use the port of Djibouti, but they raise their taxes every year. Taxing Ethiopia has become one of Djibouti's largest source of income. How can we trust that Kenyan won't do the same?

Well, democracy isn't needed when you have a government like China that's doing it's best do develop it's country.

The dictators in Ethiopia are more worried about filling their foreign bank accounts than doing what's best for the country. They have divided the country into ethnic based regions - why would anyone do that in a country where over 80 different languages are spoken? Divide and conquer, now they have everyone fighting each other instead of concentrating on them. They also look "calm" to the outside world, so the west etc can look the other way and let this continue.

What I meant with state controlled media is that there only is ONE TV channel (unless you have dish of course) in the country. Watching ETV reminds me of power-point slides. Also, there is only ONE mobile and internet operator. No competition = You got nothing to lose, bribe the right guy and you will never lose your job, no effort to improve is needed. I don't think this is the chase with China.

[Xusein]

For Ethiopians to actually take advantage of any kind of Kenyan port, significant (running in the billions of dollars) infrastructural improvements and projects not seen yet in the region would have to be done, like new railroads and roads and other things that might be better used to improve the infrastructure in Ethiopia (or Kenya) itself. The power centers of Ethiopia are over 1100 km away from the Kenyan coast.

Originally Posted by Yonii

State controlled media, state controlled telecommunications are slowing down the ICT development. We probably have the slowest Internet connection in Africa. There are more mobile phone users (%) in neighboring Somalia.

It might sound far fetched at first glance, but we have to remember the population difference between the two nations...

[Lydon]

Originally Posted by Alex Roney

It won't be as easy to lower poverty rates considering South Africa's growing population.

Not true. South Africa's population is expected to decline as a result of AIDS, illegal immigrants returning home, as well as declining birth rates.

There are many sources available, but the last two paragraphs of the following sum it up pretty well: http://soer.deat.gov.za/indicator.aspx?m=615

[Alex Roney]

Originally Posted by Lydon

Not true. South Africa's population is expected to decline as a result of AIDS, illegal immigrants returning home, as well as declining birth rates.

There are many sources available, but the last two paragraphs of the following sum it up pretty well: http://soer.deat.gov.za/indicator.aspx?m=615

Well the fertility rate still indicates a growing population, not one that is stagnating or decreasing. Your also making the assumption that illegal immigrants will simply return home. When? What if they have children? Also AIDS has a detrimental affect on the economy, in terms of funds to keep people alive to loss in productivity. South African can't make headway on poverty and inequality with 3% growth.

[Lydon]

Originally Posted by Alex Roney

Well the fertility rate still indicates a growing population, not one that is stagnating or decreasing. Your also making the assumption that illegal immigrants will simply return home. When? What if they have children? Also AIDS has a detrimental affect on the economy, in terms of funds to keep people alive to loss in productivity. South African can't make headway on poverty and inequality with 3% growth.

I'm not assuming anything, I'm quoting professionals There's no way to predict exactly what is going to happen, but the above is a likely scenario based on research.

So, in summary, what you previously stated regarding the population size is not what is expected to happen. I'm not in the position to personally back that up or argue otherwise, hence me quoting reputable sources.

[Xusein]

By 2023, I think it would feasible to say that SA might have a trillion economy or larger by then. At least using the trajectory presented here.

But I think that Nigeria and possibly Egypt will surpass it. SA will be much higher than both per capita for sure though.

[bayviews]

Originally Posted by Lydon

Not true. South Africa's population is expected to decline as a result of AIDS, illegal immigrants returning home, as well as declining birth rates.

An actual population decline for South Africa, well thats interresting.

Certainly a lowering of demographic growth would probably help SA's per capita economic growth.

[Tbite]

Originally Posted by Xusein

By 2023, I think it would feasible to say that SA might have a trillion economy or larger by then. At least using the trajectory presented here.

But I think that Nigeria and possibly Egypt will surpass it. SA will be much higher than both per capita for sure though.

Nigeria's trying to get 900 billion by around 2020.....should reach top 20..then...top 8...soon after that.

There have been some hitches to our vision 2020 though.

The plan was to grow at 13% consistently.

but we have been growing at half that rate..at about 6%

However I think growth will skyrocket, when we have strengthened all the financial institutions, expanded the Gas Industry, Expanded the Oil industry, achieved 10,000 megawatts of electricity, increased agricultural exports, expanded the petrochemical market and manufacture before 2017.

[greenandgold]

A trillion dollar economy at 2023 for any African country is just wishful thinking. We must not talk like prophets that just speak from unconfirmed sources but we must look at all stats and current figures.
Economies never grow by magic or by our thoughts but economic, political and social facts. A big population does not necessary make a big economy. Just check that our economy is massive in Africa although it was designed for a few people and the USA has less than 5 percent of the world population but their economy slices 25 percent of the world economy.
Economic growth is anyones game if they have their house in order not population.

[Xusein]

True, they don't grow by magic or our thoughts. They grow by educating the population, improving infrastructure, attracting foreign investment, and diversifying their economies. But I do hope that it happens one day, not necessarily in 2023, when an African country's economic GDP hits a trillion dollars.

South Africa and Egypt are already near the half trillion mark as far as PPP is concerned according to the CIA world factbook, and Nigeria isn't too far behind. If these three nations achieve a sustained period of strong growth (although that's not guaranteed in our rollercoaster global economy), they can eventually hit that mark down the road...hopefully.

It isn't that wacky though, back in the 1970s if someone was told that China and India were booming and going further up on the economic ladder, they would probably laugh as much as the idea of this news about Ethiopia today.

[Yoniii]

Originally Posted by Xusein

For Ethiopians to actually take advantage of any kind of Kenyan port, significant (running in the billions of dollars) infrastructural improvements and projects not seen yet in the region would have to be done, like new railroads and roads and other things that might be better used to improve the infrastructure in Ethiopia (or Kenya) itself. The power centers of Ethiopia are over 1100 km away from the Kenyan coast.

Exactly... I don't see those investments happening. Also, even though the relationship between Ethiopia and Kenya is pretty good right now, you never know how the future looks. Special in an unstable region like the horn. One politcal crises and the ports could easily be shut-down and Ethiopia stands locked again. I only see one way and that's Asseb. Temporary solutions are Djibouti and ports in Somaliland. There's no limit to how far Ethiopia could go with it's own port, a government that doesn't ethnicially divied and discriminate it's own citizents etc. The government, allied with the US, have a firm grip. We are screwed.