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Old December 11th, 2011, 04:32 AM   #121
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Iraq is expected to decline in the deficit to $ 4 billion by 2014
10/12/2011



Rafie al-Issawi said Iraqi Minister of Finance that the budget deficit will drop to 5 trillion Iraqi dinars (4 billion dollars) by the end of 2014 from 14 trillion dinars (12 billion dollars) expected in 2012 with the country to benefit from increased oil revenues. Issawi said that the deficit according to the ministry's plan in 3 years until 2014, will decline steadily with the growth of production and oil exports.

He said in an interview with Reuters yesterday that the deficit in the medium-term plan is supposed to fall to 5 trillion and predicted that the deficit in 2014 is equivalent to 5 trillion dinars. Baghdad has signed several deals with international oil companies to increase its oil production to 12 million barrels per day by 2017 from 2.95 million barrels per day at the moment.

That would put paid to the ranks of Iraq's largest oil producers in the world. But many analysts are skeptical that Iraq up to the target level due to infrastructure constraints. He said Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul Karim and coffee last September, the target level of production capacity between 8 million and 8.5 million barrels per day "is more appropriate."

And budget deficits of the challenges that limit the ability of Iraq's reconstruction after the conflict that followed the US-led invasion of the country in 2003.

Issawi said that the proposed budget for 2012 which is estimated at one hundred billion dollars, which is still awaiting approval, based on the forecast growth rate of 5% in the gross domestic product and inflation at 5% during the year. The Iraqi government approved a draft budget for 2012, Monday is scheduled to be submitted to parliament within days of final approval.

An official from the Iraqi Central Bank last month that Iraq's core inflation fell to 6.9% last October from 7.3% in September.
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Old December 14th, 2011, 03:13 AM   #122
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Iraq Expects To Be Given OPEC Presidency In 2012 - Oil Ministry
Dec. 13, 2011


Iraq will be given the presidency of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, for 2012 at the group's Wednesday meeting, Iraq's Oil Minister said Tuesday.

"Yes we are having discussions with members on OPEC's presidency next year," Iraqi oil minister Abdul Kareem Luaiby told Dow Jones Newswires.
"We will get it," he said.

Iraq, a founder of the 12-member producers group, has not been bound to an OPEC production quota since the 1980s, when the country's production fell sharply below its quota due to the 8-year Iraq-Iran war that ended in 1988.

Then the country came under U.N trade sanctions for 13 years following its invasion of Kuwait in 1990, when it was banned from freely exporting oil.

Asked if Iraq being outside OPEC's quota system would affect it getting the OPEC presidency next year, he said: "No, the quota has nothing to do with us being OPEC president."

The OPEC presidency is a ceremonial post that rotates among the 12 members of the organization. It is chosen on the consequence of members' alphabetical names and it is a one-year term. Iraq will take the presidency from Iran.
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Old December 14th, 2011, 04:10 AM   #123
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Iraq Can Lead the Arab World If It Gets Oil Policy Right: View
Dec. 12 2011

Source: Bloomberg


U.S. President Barack Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had many important issues to discuss yesterday in Washington: the impending withdrawal of the last U.S. troops from Iraq, the fragility of democracy there, the looming presence of Iran on its border and so on.

But an item further down the agenda may well be the most important factor in Iraq’s future: oil.

Iraq possesses the fourth largest proven oil reserves on the planet. That treasure once made the country one of the most economically developed in the region. If it can re-energize its petroleum industry, Iraq, with its emerging democracy, can become the most advanced nation in the Arab world.

Iraq hopes to increase its oil production from 2.7 million barrels a day now to 13.5 million by 2018. Outside experts think even half that is a stretch. In any case, a major production increase will require significantly more investment by foreign companies, which have the expertise and capital Iraq has lost through decades of war and turmoil. Their enthusiasm, however, has been dampened by bureaucratic holdups, legal uncertainties and the diminished state of Iraq’s pipelines, storage facilities, export terminals and the like.

The red tape companies encounter in Iraq -- when they apply for employee visas, for example, or try to import equipment or seek payment -- seems to reflect attitudes rooted in the past. The oil industry was nationalized in 1972, and the idea of excluding foreign companies still has resonance, including within Maliki’s coalition government.

Time to Decide

Iraq’s leadership has a choice: Either create an administrative environment conducive to foreign investment or accept a slow growth rate for oil production.

The latter is bad for Iraq and the former needn’t be. Offshore interests can’t be allowed to plunder Iraq’s reserves. But in the 15 contracts the central government has signed so far, it has made strong deals for itself.

The international companies working in the country, however, have worries that Iraqi officials need to resolve. Iraq’s 2005 constitution promised a hydrocarbon law that would settle who had the power to approve what type of deal. Yet no such legislation exists because the central government and the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in the north, which has oilfields only recently being exploited, haven’t agreed on terms.

In August, Maliki’s Cabinet sent Parliament a draft law that would let a federal council approve only technical-services agreements, the type of contract the central government has granted. With these, companies are compensated for costs plus a fee per barrel of oil produced. But the Kurds, in their deals with 43 companies, have signed production-sharing arrangements, in which the company is responsible for costs but gets a percentage of any oil that is extracted. Contractors prefer such terms, which are higher risk but potentially higher yield. They also seem to make more sense for the northern oil deposits, which are generally fragmented and don’t offer the same ease of production as the larger fields in the south.

In the absence of a law, Maliki’s government has deemed the Kurds’ contracts illegal and banned companies that have signed them from bidding for oil business in the rest of Iraq. Creating more uncertainty, Baghdad, until earlier this year, denied such contractors the ability to export the oil they produced in the Kurdish areas, limiting their sales to the domestic market. For these reasons, the northern oilfields have attracted mainly wildcatters and second-tier companies like Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)and Hess Corp. (HES)

Shake Things Up

Having angered Kurdish authorities with its draft law, the central government agreed to new negotiations. But Exxon Mobil Corp. shook things up in October when it became the first major oil company to sign with the Kurds -- sealing six exploration deals. It did so while also doing business with the central government. In response, Baghdad not only blacklisted the company from the next auction of exploration blocks in Iraq’s south, it threatened to cancel the company’s 60 percent stake in developing the giant West Qurna 1 oilfield, which is already producing 350,000 barrels a day. The U.S. oil giant’s move defied not only Baghdad but also the U.S. government, which has warned companies against signing contracts with the Kurds in the absence of a legal framework.

Still, Exxon’s gambit could prove a positive catalyst, if Maliki’s government makes the right decisions. Expelling the company from the West Qurna 1 oilfield, or forcing it to choose between doing business with the Kurds or the central government, could scare away other potential partners. Baghdad would do better to support a hydrocarbon law that embraces production-sharing contracts for the north and technical-services agreements for the southern fields.

Many Baghdad officials worry that giving in on the issue will feed the Kurds’ desire for more independence. It may. However, refusing to legitimize the Kurdish contracts is already having that effect, while perpetuating the legal uncertainty. The sooner that fuzziness is resolved, the sooner Iraq can get the help it needs to accelerate oil production.

Increasing output will generate the money Iraq requires to renovate its oil infrastructure, which will allow still greater production. Corroded pipelines need to be replaced. A system for bringing water, which facilitates oil flow, from the Persian Gulf to the oilfields needs to be completed. New storage facilities and export terminals, replacing those destroyed as long ago as the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, must be built.

The Iraqis estimate it may take $50 billion in investments in these systems to get production up to 6 million barrels per day. That money will be hard to come by if the Maliki government keeps getting in the way of foreign investment.
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Old December 24th, 2011, 02:06 AM   #124
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EU, Iraq sign partnership agreement
22 Dec. 2011


European Union (EU) on Thursday authorized the signing of a partnership and cooperation agreement with Iraq.

According to an EU press release, this agreement will mark the first ever contractual relation between the two sides, and provides a legal framework covering issues from regular political dialogue to trade relations and regulatory cooperation, and development assistance.

"The agreement underlines the EU's determination to play a significant role in Iraq's transition and will be the main vehicle for the EU's support to Iraq and further enhancement of EU-Iraq relations," said the statement.

Last Sunday, the last batch of U.S. combat forces in Iraq departed and crossed into neighboring Kuwait, marking the end of nearly nine-year military presence in the war-torn country.
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Old January 17th, 2012, 03:53 AM   #125
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Parliamentary expects the economy in 2015 budget of more than $200 billion
January 17 2012


Predicted for the economy and invest in the House of Representatives to reach the general budget for the year 2015 more than 200 billion dollars. A member of the Committee Deputy Yousef al-Tai in a statement »morning»: The «is expected to witness the year 2015 budget explosive, thanks to increased oil export», calling for the need to invest and exploit optimally the investment sector in promoting and supporting the private sector.

He described the Tai next stage as a stage «important» in the history of Iraq, where a turnaround job within the country, considering that this stage will be of nature purely economic view of the dominance of the economic file on the Iraqi scene after the withdrawal of U.S. occupation forces him, especially during the coming years because of budgets large and how direct these funds and invest them properly.
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Old January 18th, 2012, 09:37 AM   #126
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Average Incomes to Increase 15% in 2012
18 jan 2012


The Central Bank of Iraq expects the average annual income in 2012 will reach almost $6,000 (7 million IQD), up from $5,200 (6 million IQD) in the previous year, according to AKnews.

The deputy governor of the CBI, Mudhar Mohammed Saleh, said the estimate was made based on the governments planned investment in oil and economic projects in the coming year.

According to UN reports there are still seven million people living below the poverty line in Iraq despite the fact that the oil rich country is now exporting 2.5 million barrels of oil per day.
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Old January 18th, 2012, 12:54 PM   #127
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Even though it's quite a small increase and the average income is still sh%t, it's good news. Just hope it starts to increase more rapidly every year. If it reaches $10,000 in 2015, I'd be satisfied.
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Old January 21st, 2012, 04:44 PM   #128
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Iraq to Grow 36% in Three Years
Jan 20 2012


The World Bank says it expects Iraq’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 12.6 percent in 2012, and 10.2 percent in 2013, following a growth of 9.6 percent last year.

If achieved, this would give a compound growth of 36 percent in just three years.

This follows a downward revision of growth expectations for the world as a whole, with the global economy expected to expand 2.5 and 3.1 percent in 2012 and 2013 (3.4 and 4 percent when calculated using purchasing power parity weights), versus the 3.6 percent projected in June for both years.
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Old January 22nd, 2012, 12:40 AM   #129
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guys

the IMF updated their GDP stats for 2011

Iraq's GDP (PPP) is now $125.665 billion

thats slightly under 11% growth from the 2010 figure of $113.366 billion


http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...r.x=19&pr.y=18
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Old January 22nd, 2012, 03:53 AM   #130
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how does it compare with other countries
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Old January 22nd, 2012, 09:00 PM   #131
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don't know where to find the table for every coutnry yet, but I imagine that's pretty impressive growth.. world economy grew at something like 2.5% so we did very well
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Old January 23rd, 2012, 04:28 AM   #132
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wow GDP is really increasing substantially...it might even be higher pre invasion
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Old January 23rd, 2012, 09:30 PM   #133
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yes it's higher than pre-invasion.. our GDP (PPP) was around 60 billion (taking inflation into account).
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Old January 24th, 2012, 01:26 PM   #134
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in 10 years time it might be catching up to developed countries
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Old January 24th, 2012, 02:21 PM   #135
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Haha well obviously 9 years later it's gonna be higher than pre-invasion! We were under sanctions remember... no investment.
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Old January 24th, 2012, 09:13 PM   #136
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yes correct, but remember, few years after invasion our economy actually contracted !

one year (i think it was 2007 or 2006) the economy shrank close to 30% !!! but managed to recover most of it the around a year later..

under war-like conditions, the economy becomes an extreme roller coaster, from one extreme to another ..

lets hope we will have many years of stable two digit growth to come.. we sure have a lot to catch up ..

I think for Iraq to be considered a a true wealthy country our GDP should be higher than $500 billion (and that's in today's dollar), in few decades, it should be MUCH more.
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Old January 24th, 2012, 09:42 PM   #137
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I think iraq should devellop the Fertilizer industry...

There are several reasons

1) The global demand for fertilizer keeps growing up

2) Iraq has already some experience in that industry (Plants in Basra & Al-qaim)

3) The main reason : Iraq has the three natural ressources needed to devellop High scale fertilizer industy

- Huge reserves of phosphates (Akashat)

- Huge reserves of Sulfur (Rock sulfur in Mishraq + Sulfur as oil processing byproduct)

- Huge reserves of Natural gas (At least 4 fields of non-associated gas + associated gas)

I don't think many countries have all those factors together.

That can be a Great economic opportunity for Iraq.
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Old January 24th, 2012, 10:56 PM   #138
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+1000

my uncle worked in the phosphates industry in Iraq (he has long left tho during early 90s)

he told me that Iraq has a better potential to be big player in the phosphate industry than in the oil industry !!

not to mntion we get uranium when we process phosphates raw meterial, so we can be in that industry too !!

we have so much potential, but our stupid leaders are too busy slaughtering eachther for personal gains..

we need people who are smart and loyal to iraq, not everyday party poltics.. only then we can truly prosper
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Old March 17th, 2012, 03:22 AM   #139
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this was never posted

Iraq approves $100.5 bln budget for 2012

BAGHDAD Feb 23 (Reuters) - Iraq's parliament approved on Thursday a much delayed $100 billion budget for 2012, based on an average oil price of $85 per barrel and 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in crude exports.

The long overdue budget approval was held up by frequent disagreements between the country's lawmakers. Under a delicate power-sharing agreement, Iraq's ministries have been divided between Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish political blocs.

The most recent dispute flared up in December, when moves by Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki against two Sunni officials prompted a walkout by lawmakers from the Sunni-backed Iraqiya bloc which lasted until late January.

The budget passed late on Thursday included a projected deficit of $12.6 billion, the bulk of which will be covered by a surplus in the Development Fund of Iraq (DFI) account at the New York Federal Reserve.

The DFI was established after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in order to direct oil revenues to reconstruction and food programmes for Iraqis. Iraq holds the bulk of proceeds from its oil export sales in the DFI.

The budget, which covers operational and investment spending, allocated $31.7 billion for investment projects. The rest would go to covering salaries and food ration items.

The budget also allocated 17 trillion dinars ($14.6 billion) to the country's security forces, since bringing violence under control remains a top concern in Iraq after U.S. troops ended their nearly nine-year presence in mid-December.

Earlier on Thursday, a string of attacks across the country killed at least 60 people, highlighting the fact that the security situation in Iraq remains precarious.

The budget was based on annual crude oil exports of 2.6 million bpd, including 175,000 bpd from the autonomous Kurdistan region. Last year, oil exports averaged 2.165 million bpd, and they slipped to 2.106 million bpd in January.

In London, Brent crude for April delivery settled at $123.62 a barrel, up 72 cents.

The OPEC member, which is trying to rebuild its battered economy after years of war and sanctions, depends mainly on oil revenues, which fund about 95 percent of its budget.

Iraq, which has the fourth-biggest oil reserves in the world, aims to boost its oil production capacity to 8-8.5 million bpd by 2017, which could vault it into the top echelon of world producers.

Iraq's 2011 budget was $82.6 billion, based on an oil price of $76.50 per barrel and 2.2 million bpd in crude exports.
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Old March 21st, 2012, 10:14 PM   #140
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Iraq launches regional charm offensive

Iraq has launched a spree of commercial and political deals across the Middle East to try to end festering Saddam Hussein-era disputes and build needed alliances as it prepares to host its first Arab League summit for 20 years. Despite deepening internal tensions, outbreaks of deadly violence and its precarious position between Iran and Gulf Arab states, analysts say Baghdad sees the conference next week as the moment to declare itself politically viable and open for business now the US military occupation has ended.

A settlement last week over compensation to Kuwait’s national airline after Saddam’s 1990 invasion is the most eye-catching sign of how Iraq – whose Arab Shia-led government is aligned ethnically with Gulf countries but religiously with Iran – is trying to soothe old enmities and pursue a delicately balanced foreign policy.

Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at the London School of Economics, says Iraqi politicians are “painfully aware” of their need “to tidy up their international relations”, especially as the unfolding crises over the Syrian uprising and Iran’s nuclear programme make it hard for them not to choose sides among their neighbours.

“It gives Iraq very little room for non-alignment,” Mr Dodge says. “And it is trying to capitalise on this little room now.”

Iraq and Kuwait reached a settlement last week under which Kuwait City agreed to cancel its long-running legal action against Baghdad over aircraft and parts allegedly taken during the six-month Iraqi occupation. In exchange for Kuwait dropping a claim for $1.2bn, Iraq agreed to pay $300m in reparations and another $200m to set up a joint airline operated by both countries, according to the Iraq government.

Both countries lauded the high-level discussions, held in Kuwait and signed off by Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq’s prime minister. Khaled al-Jarallah, undersecretary at Kuwait’s foreign ministry, said the talks were “excellent and in the interests of both brotherly nations, governments and peoples”, according to Kuwait’s official news service.

Days after the announcement, Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways was granted approval to become the first Kuwaiti carrier to offer flights to Iraq, an indication that warmer relations could also boost the private sector. The countries said they also made progress on compensating Kuwaitis who could prove that they owned properties in Iraq.

Analysts link the flurry of amends-making with the Arab League summit beginning in Baghdad on Tuesday – the first in Iraq for more than 20 years and the first in a country with a Shia head of government.

Dominick Donald, a director of Aegis Advisory, a risk consultancy, says: “It would be rude to go to Baghdad in Arab amity without having made progress on something. This is an important but comparatively easy first step.”

The Kuwait deal is part of a broader – and pragmatic – charm offensive by Iraq in recent weeks, including concluding a prisoner-transfer agreement with Saudi Arabia. It has also agreed to compensate Egyptian expatriate workers over unpaid Saddam-era remittances, while Cairo will start exporting electricity to Iraq to help it meet its domestic needs.

Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq’s foreign minister, says the diplomatic activity and the Arab League conference were statements that Iraq had “really become a normal country again”.

“We are the master of our decisions and our destiny, and we will address the remaining unresolved issues from past years,” Mr Zebari says. “The big idea is that the summit will enhance international confidence in Iraq – in business, in trade and in diplomatic and commercial relations.”

But for all the new spirit of concord, analysts warn that Iraq still has big past and present problems to tackle in domestic politics and foreign relations.

Kuwait expects Iraq to keep paying reparations over the invasion, amounting to 5 per cent of its oil revenues annually – an obligation that Mr Zebari says has already cost Baghdad $22bn, with another $17bn due. The two countries also face tensions over Kuwait’s decision to build the Mubarak al-Kabir port on Bubiyan Island, a direct competitor to Iraq’s Grand al-Faw terminal just a few kilometres away.

Iraq’s national unity government is grappling with severe internal pressures that erupted within days of the US withdrawal in December, when Tariq al-Hashimi, the country’s Sunni vice-president, fled Baghdad after a warrant was issued to arrest him on terror charges. This week’s slaughter of dozens of people across the country in a wave of co-ordinated car bomb attacks was a reminder that the appalling violence seen since the 2003 US-led invasion has not disappeared entirely.

On foreign policy, Iraq is uncomfortably placed both geographically and politically amid the hostility between the Gulf states and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and the brutal crackdown by President Bashar al-Assad’s Iranian-aligned regime in Damascus. If the regional proxy war developing in Syria deepens, it may yet prove a fatal test for Iraq’s policy of detente.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2012
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