Business thrives in creating demand or making it appear that there is scarcity in supply. That said, it is for their benefit to paint a gloomy picture of the fuel supply and get richer many times over than if they just kept on silently producing.
On the issue of whether the peak oil has been reached or not, nobody on earth can exactly predict the exact year. See it here
What are the real numbers?
“The industry has not spent a lot of time correlating and testing their theories using recent data. Every time we take on a project, we are rolling the dice. You can’t ever know the future. The only thing you can do is get your hands on all of the historical data. What we haven’t done in the petroleum industry is look at the numbers. People can’t relate to what is really going on,” continues Simmons. With no “accurate global fuel gauge” to forecast when Peak Oil will occur, and no early warning radar system,” it threatens to strike like a ‘Pearl Harbor event.’ Predicting it accurately becomes impossible.
Although the industry needs better reporting transparency to ensure data reform, notes Simmons, world oil leaders aren’t complying to endorse it. Their reasoning defeats the possibility for transparency with excuses like “it is our confidential data” and “we might suffer a competitive disadvantage.” When the demand for oil outstrips the supply, world peace may be at risk. Simmons suggests we are “totally unprepared” and he insists there are “only a small number of people who understand why data reform is important.”
The solution may lie in enforcing compliance rules for companies. “If we forced the key oil producers to report quarterly production on a field-by-field basis, then we would be able to verify and scientifically graph their production figures. Only 250 producing fields generate 80% of the world’s oil. The Peak Oil concept needs these fields’ production statistics to accurately start to chart the data to be certain of Peak Oil production,” explains Simmons. Unfortunately, an accurate assessment of the situation cannot be made without a global consensus by the energy industry.
It would be safe to say, if it comes, it will be a question on how human behavior adapts to living without the usual things.