IRAQ | Economy

[Sinjar]

Double-Digit Growth Forecast for Iraq



While much of the developed world struggles to drag itself out of recession, Iraq managed to register real GDP growth of 9.9% last year, according to IMF estimates.

Their projection for this year is 11.1 percent, followed by 13.5 percent next year, giving compounded growth over the three years of nearly 40%.
Iraq may have its problems, but economic growth is not one of them.

“There’s a tremendous imbalance between the potential wealth of Iraq and its current situation in terms of both consumer goods and infrastructure,” Farouk Soussa, Middle East chief economist at U.S. bank Citi, told Reuters.

“When it happens, the catch-up will be immense. A lot of people are positioning themselves for this.”

[fazl1991]

IRAQ Can do it, trust me.

[SumerianKing]

Imagine how much greater the economy will grow once we become the largest exporters of phosphate.

[Sinjar]

One thing is sure, Iraq's economy will continue to grow rapidly in the next decade.

[Ali - Iraq]

If we don't enter a war..

[BigDreamer]

actually, i was hoping iraq would growing atleast 15% + p/a by now.. in my opinion iraq is under performing giving it's potential.. remember, our GDP is very small to begin with, high growth rate should be the expected result, not the the exceptional result !

[ardamir]

Would such rapid growth place inflationary pressure on the currency?

[alshawi1234]

Originally Posted by BigDreamer

actually, i was hoping iraq would growing atleast 15% + p/a by now.. in my opinion iraq is under performing giving it's potential.. remember, our GDP is very small to begin with, high growth rate should be the expected result, not the the exceptional result !

The Iraqi economy will keep at growing considerably lower than it's full potential mainly because of electricity and corruption. Corruption will greatly decrease once electricity is supplied 24/7 and the government operations become automated. Only then will the real boom begin in the Iraqi economy.

[SumerianKing]

Originally Posted by alshawi1234

The Iraqi economy will keep at growing considerably lower than it's full potential mainly because of electricity and corruption. Corruption will greatly decrease once electricity is supplied 24/7 and the government operations become automated. Only then will the real boom begin in the Iraqi economy.

You got it on point. Corruption and electricity are huge denominators in the rate of our growing economy.

[Sinjar]

GDP growth: 10.9%
GDP: $112bn (PPP: $159bn)
Inflation: 6.1%
Population: 32.8m
GDP per head: $3,410 (PPP: $4,850)

http://www.economist.com/node/21538052

[sheytanElKebir]

of course the biggest factor is the lack of BANKING / loans for investments, real-estate development and small companies.

[alshawi1234]

^ and banking of course which would only be developed when the electricity problem and corruption are solved.
Banking and the complicated application process as well as security is probably the main reasons why most foreigners are not investing.

[adnan12]

Originally Posted by alshawi1234

^ and banking of course which would only be developed when the electricity problem and corruption are solved.
Banking and the complicated application process as well as security is probably the main reasons why most foreigners are not investing.

The problem is always security.

The arab world has many young talented people skilled in finance & banking , who can't find any job in their country, like egypt, tunisia, jordan, lebanon.

If they are sure not to be slaughtered, many of them woul enjoy working in iraq to help building the basis of a modern banking system in iraq, and train local people to financial jobs.

[sheytanElKebir]

Iraq's banking problem has nothing to do with electricity (they can run a generator! it doesn't cost that much extra) nor labour (modern banks are mostly automated and locals can certainly manage day to day operations without issues).

The real problem is a lack of legislation to protect banks from bad loans, a lack of clear business courts to settle disputes and a lack of a clear mechanism for checking credit worthiness of loan applicants (whether individual or corporate).

-LAWS for investments / insurance / collaterals
-Credit Rating / Management agencies to cover all Iraqi companies / citizens

=

all the international banks will come rushing in.



I will give you one TINY example.

Person A has a 1000m piece of land in a prime spot in baghdad. The land is worth $4M dollars.
The person has $500k in "cash" to build a project on it.

In today's situation: he build a nasty 3 floor building using his cash only.
With low interest rate modern banks: He builds a modern 10 storey building with a "loan of $5M on his land + $500k cash".

when he builds a bigger building, he employs more people for construction, buys more materials for construction and creates modern real-estate to replace the 98% dilapidated beyod human use real-estate we have in Iraq today.

The importance of legislation and electronic IDs / credit reference system for Iraq CANNOT be overstated! NOTHING will happen without it. But it doesn't even REGISTER with the parliament.

[Basrawii]

Hi all,

This is the trade map for the city of Basra (Counties not included). Please move to a more convenient place if this is not the right one. Thanks.

[BigDreamer]

this image is too big ! can you please resize it !

[fazl1991]

Its a map y resize it just give a link like this

http://www.noojooom.com/lib/attach/B...Map%202012.jpg

[Sinjar]

Netherlands Sees Business Opportunities in Iraq

THE HAGUE, 12/05/12 - Foreign Minister Uri Rosenthal has discussed current political issues and economic cooperation with Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussain al-Shahristani.

A Dutch trade delegation comprising companies from the oil and gas and agricultural sectors will be visiting Baghdad, Basra and Erbil from 2 to 8 June. Rosenthal sees "major opportunities" in Iraq for Dutch businesses, he said after meeting with Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussain al-Shahristani. He is in the Netherlands to receive the Roosevelt Four Freedoms Award for freedom from fear.

The ministers also discussed Iraq's neighbours Iran and Syria. Rosenthal emphasised the importance of Iraq's support for UN envoy Kofi Annan's plan for Syria. Rosenthal and Mr Al-Shahristani discussed the meeting in Baghdad on 23 May in which the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany will talk to Iran about its nuclear programme.

In addition, Rosenthal conveyed his concerns about the position of ethnic and religious minorities in Iraq, particularly in Nineveh. He expressed support for the efforts the UN has made to find a solution for the residents of Camp Ashraf.

[Sinjar]

Ambassador: Australia invests initially with $2.5b in Iraq

Wasit, May 11 (AKnews)

Australian Ambassador to Iraq Lindal Sax said her country has decided to begin investment in Iraq initially with $2.5b in agriculture sector.

Her statement was made today during a joint press conference with Wasit Governor Mahdi al-Zubaidi.

Australian government will begin investment in Iraq by soil reclamation projects in Wasit, Dhi Qar, and Diwaniya provinces, Sax said.

She added the initial calculations show that the projects require $2.5b and the lion's share in the project will go to Wasit province which owns vast agricultural lands.

The Tigris River which flows north through south of Wasit, has turned the province a fertile Iraqi provinces, distinguished for its high production level of wheat and barley.

Sax added the Australian government is willing to visit some Iraqi provinces, especially those with a solid ground for investment in various sectors in order to sign joint economic and trade protocols.

she said the "strong desire" of her country to invest in Iraq was in realization of the improved security situation and the appropriate investment environment in the country "which is joined to Australia with strong ties."

The ambassador thought the Iraqi Investment Law has provided a plenty of guarantees, especially for the foreign investors.

During her meeting with the Iraqi Planning Ministry Ali Yusuf on Jan.19, the Austrian Ambassador pointed to the capacities of her country in the agricultural sector and anticipated Austrian investment in the sector.

© AK News 2012

[Sinjar]

منظمة عربية: العراق سيحقق نمواً بـ12% ومتوسط الدخل سيتجاوز 3000 دولار في 2012

السومرية نيوز/بغداد
توقعت المنظمة العربية لضمان الاستثمار وائتمان الصادرات أن يحقق اقتصاد العراق خلال عام 2012 نسبة نمو تتجاوز 12% ، تعد الأولى عربياً، فيما رجحت أن يتجاوز متوسط الدخل السنوي للمواطن العراقي الـ3000 دولار

وقالت المنظمة في تقرير تلقت "السومرية نيوز"، إن "معدل النمو الاقتصادي المتوقع للعراق خلال عام 2012 سيبلغ نحو 12.6% وهو الأول عربياً"، مبينة أنه من "المتوقع أن تأتي قطر في المرتبة الثانية بنسبة نمو تبلغ نحو 6%"

وأضافت المنظمة أن "العراق حقق نسبة نمو خلال عام 2011 بلغت نحو 9.6%، مشيرة إلى أن "متوسط الدخل السنوي للمواطن العراقي خلال عام 2012 سيبلغ نحو 3306 دولار"

ورجحت المنظمة أن "تحل موريتانيا ثالثة بنسبة نمو 5.70%، وجيبوتي رابعة بنسبة نمو بلغت 5.10%، فيما سيحتل المغرب والكويت المركز الخامس بنسبة 4.6%"

ولفتت المنظمة إلى أن "مصر وسورية ستسجلان النمو الأقل عربيا بنسبة 1.8% و1.5% على التوالي"، فيما توقعت أن "يسجل السودان نمواً سلبياً بنسبة 0.4%، وأن يتراجع نمو اليمن بنسبة 0.5%"

وتعد المؤسسة العربية لضمان الاستثمار وائتمان الصادرات التي أسست في عام 1974 بموجب اتفاقيات وقعت بين بعض الدول العربية من المؤسسات العربية الإقليمية المختصة بالمجال الاقتصادي، وتضم في عضويتها جميع الدول العربية باستثناء جمهورية جزر القمر، وتتخذ المؤسسة من الكويت مقراً دائما لها، ولديها مكتب إقليمي في مدينة الرياض بالسعودية

وكانت وزارة التخطيط أعلنت، في آذار 2012، أن نسبة النمو في العراق بلغت عام 2011 نحو 8.5% مقابل 5.8% في العام 2010

يذكر أن العراق أطلق في شهر أيار من عام 2010 خطة التنمية الوطنية الخمسية 2010-2014، خلال حفل نظمته وزارة التخطيط والتعاون الإنمائي العراقية تحت شعار "نحو اقتصاد عراقي متنوع ومستدام". وتهدف الخطة إلى تقليص الفوارق والحواجز بين مناطق الحضر والريف، وإنشاء البنية التحتية وتأمين الخدمات الاجتماعية والوظائف، وزيادة الناتج المحلي بنسبة 9.38 بالمئة كمعدل نمو سنوي خلال مدة الخطة مع العمل على تنويع الاقتصاد والذي يعتمد حالياً على واردات النفط